Our reader, Big P, wants to jump ahead to next week and talk about the New Orleans Saints.
I’m happy to oblige him.
Here’s a stat you didn’t know about the Saints: They played five road games on grass this season. In those five games, their offense scored touchdowns in seven of 22 red zone trips. That’s a 31.8 percent red zone efficiency on grass, and that’s horrendous.
On the other hand, the Niners defense had a 25 percent red zone efficiency at Candlestick Park, meaning they allowed one touchdown for every four times the opponent made it into their red zone. That’s as good as it gets.
The Saints average 34.2 points per game, but they haven’t played a defense anywhere near the caliber of the Niners yet.
If the Saints win this weekend and earn the right to play the Niners at Candlestick Park on January 14th, the numbers suggest the Niners should be able to hold the Saints offense to field goals. If they can do that, they’ll win.
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Grant
I among many others have pointed out that NO has not played anybody near as good as we are on Defense.
I also pointed out that most big plays are a result of bad defense. Somebody not knowing their assignment/getting greedy/poor tackling or just slipping on the turf.
Need not look any further than the Raider Miami game.
The Raiders went into that game having the most big plays of any team. Miami went in having the fewest (or near bottom). Miami has a good D. The Raiders D stinks.
So what happens? The Raiders don’t make any big plays until the outcome is well decided, and Miami makes a ton of big plays.
How does that work?
I couldn’t believe how poor the coverage was on a lot of the big plays the Saints have made in the last few weeks. CBs half jogging on their drops while staring in the backfield, all while their WR sprints down the field. The only way to beat NO is to play sound fundamental football. They’ll make plays, there’s no stopping them, but if SF can slow them down, they can turn the game into the type of shootout SF can win (20-30 pt final score).
Bee-rows just tweeted that it’s supposed to rain (I’ve been rain dancing), which should help.
Still, we cannot count the Lions out, I doubt they’re lookin to get blown out twice by the same team. I suspect them to put up a fight.
niners better wear their long cleats if it rains
The Raiders and dolphins are horrible though (sorry Grant).
A better comparison might be the Green Bay at Kansas City game. A potent, high powered offense led by an elite QB going against a good defense.
The KC defense managed to slow down the Packers and hold them to 14 points. The KC offense managed to eek out 17 points and get the win.
The KC and 49ers offenses are about the same (except the 49ers are much better at avoiding turnovers) but the 49ers D and special teams are quite a bit better. I can easily see a similar result against the Saints.
@msc
The Chiefs a just a poor mans version of the Niners.
Look at each position and the Niners have somebody better than the Chiefs.
But the Chiefs have the same basic philosophies. Run the ball a lot. Have the QB throw the ball safely and not turn the ball over and control the clock.
That is what the Niners do. They do it better than the Chiefs (thus our record). The Pack lost to this type of team.
Why can’t they lose to us?
I for one can’t wait. Go Niners! Pay back for the preseason game.
I’m hoping JH has been holding out a few surprises for the big moment in playoff games. Saints are formidable no doubt, but the Niners D & ST are top notch and give field position. The ball control O keeps Brees & co off the field and controls the clock. NO’s D is average so we will score in the mid 20′s. Turn overs and a big play will decide the game but the Niners are built to win this type of game at home.
I thought ESPN already had a similar article earlier this week on how poor the Saints are on grass.
I’m actually hoping the Saints win this week. I want payback. JM’s first preseason game as a HC and the Saints blitz every other play! Its allowed but still cheap. I’d love to unleash the Codor on Brees and Sean Payton.
I want payback!!
Me too… I was more than a little pissed about that preseason game.
P.S. The 9ers play the NFC North next year, and they have the Lions at home… vengeance will come.
@Luke…
Dude… you look familiar. I think you’re engaged to an old friend of mine Laura. Man… what a small world if so. Anyhoo… I want the same thing too… bring on the Saints and let them march their beatup ass back to New Orleans!!!
I am engaged to Laura. How funny. Go niners!
Bless your heart… and BLESS YOU BOYS! Go Saints!
I agree, but I want payback from ATL too. They have broken my heart the last couple of years, but if we have to go the hard way. Id like that too. Dont want anyone saying we skated with no comp on our way to the Superbowl win!
I’d like to see JH spanks that SOB Jim Schwartz one more time.
2 weeks of preparation and healing, on grass at the Stick, i like our chances no matter who we play. Saints will definitely be tough – Brees is much better than Manning, and Manning did pretty well against us on the same grass. But if you want to win a championship, you need to beat the good teams. cant imagine a better finish than beating the Saints, Packers, and the Ravens.
Assuming we play the Saints, here’s my take.
Wearing down the clock and keeping Drew Brees off the field is clearly something Harbaugh & Co will want to implicate into the game plan.
The red zone is crucial! Akers is money but you’re not going to beat the Saints by pummeling them with field goals.
If you want to beat the Saints, you have to be near-perfect on offense and find a way to slow down New Orleans’ passing game.
Nobody has been able to shut down Jimmy Graham, the 6-7 long-armed freak of a TE. We must be aware of where Jimmy Graham is line up and what his route tendencies are.
The Saints have lost three games this season, turnovers killed them in their last two losses. They had four total in the loss to Tampa Bay, and Brees had two picks against the Rams back in week 8.
They can be vulnerable to the ground game, Steven Jackson had over 150 yards on them. You either have to outscore Brees, like the Packers did in week 1 (42-34), or force him to throw interceptions, like the Bucs and Rams did. On paper it looks like we will have to win this game by creating turnovers.
One key note, the Saints have not played against an elite defense all season. There are only 3 elite defenses, Niners, Ravens and Steelers. Nobody plays a physical smash mouth style defense like these three teams and the Saints didn’t play any of them this year.
I like our chances vs Saints at HOME (The Big Nasty)!!
I don’t like this game at all. The Saints strength is our biggest weakness on defense. They throw the long ball and that is our weakness on defense. The good news is that they don’t have speed burners on that offense. Colston is big though.
Pressure, pressure and more pressure. Release the Aldon……
They don’t just throw the long ball, they get a lot of shorter to intermediate routes with YAC. Sproles is a YAC machine.
this as well is my sentiments….if niners lose as a result of NO prolific passing then i would have to say the niners secondary defense would be the problem more so than any other thing….again this team is riding on the strength of the defense…..offense is improving but the real question is how many points will the defense give up…..i suspect the offense will be consistent…19-25 points…..and has the OL really overcome its deficiencies….i don’t think so
Keys to a N.O. playoff game are:
1. Justin Smith being healthy and taking on 2-3 blockers to free Aldon – pass rush is essential to help DB’s make big plays.
2. Containing Sproles to the outside. The 9ers don’t do well with quick outside runners. Look out for big plays on screens.
3. Making tackles on initial hits by wrapping up and not allowing big plays on yards after the hit. This has been a 9er liability late in games.
4. The 9ers improving RZ scoring – not *only* passes…the runs need to finish – need a big push from the o-line.
I don’t see a big change in the offense/game plan between the 20′s other than the RZ scoring/play calls near the goal line.
You forgot Rain, and lots of it. ;-)
Hofe – I agree with 3 of your 4 points but I think we CAN keep Sproles in check on the outside. PW & Bowman will have fresh legs now and they should have that extra step that’s needed to make plays on the outside. Bowman looked a little worn down to me the last couple games and he will benefit alot with the additional week off!
I see your your boy Justin (Cowboy) Smith being rejuvenated for some real ass-kicking on Jan 14th!!!
I predict VD will me extremely motivated to show Jimmy Graham who the best TE on the field is! If we play saints of course.
Good post as usual Hofe!
One more – Patrick Willis needs to be healthy and mobile. My guess is they’ll have him on Grahm in the short passing situations and he’ll need to be on his best game to take their TE out of the game.
I like the positive vibes! I also think the Saints are very beatable at the Stick.
And payback for that first preseason game is a MUST!!!
Go Niners!
Grant – what was their record, offensive yards, and points scored in those five road games on grass this season? I’m curious how that matches their averages.
We need to score 30 to beat the saints. We need to put a game plan together that will net us 30 points…
Our D will be focused and fired up for this game. I cannot see the Saints hanging 30 points on this defense at Candlestick. I think it will be in the low 20′s.
The Saints are only averaging 24.2 outdoors on grass. The closest defense they faced to the 49ers was the Jaguars (don’t laugh, the Jags defense was actually decent early in the season) where they were held to 23 points.
I think the 49ers can hold the Saints near 20 points, especially if it’s rainy, windy and muddy at Candlestick.
I agree. Plus, Willis should do a nice job with Graham, and Bowman should do well with Sproles.
I’ll tell you what I don’t want to hear. If we lose to a high scoring offense and our offense doesn’t keep up, I don’t want to hear the defense get blamed.
Bay, if the DB’s don’t play well by wrapping up on initial hits and don’t play sound coverage, why couldn’t the D be blamed? I don’t get your comment! Is it only the offense that is accountable for the game against N.O.??!
@bay:
We need to score 30 to beat the saints.
Why? Don’t get me wrong, the Saints are playing scarily well right now. They are the best offense SF will have faced this season, and Sean Payton and Drew Brees have proven they know how to perform in the playoffs. That said, the following points make me wonder whether the Saints will score as much as you seem to think they will.
First, the Saints are not as explosive on the road as they are at home. At home, they averaged 41.125 points per game. On the road, they averaged 27.25. On the road on grass, they averaged 25.8 points per game.
Second, the Saints played against some weak scoring defenses this year. They played only 4 games against teams with scoring defenses ranked in the top half of the league – Houston (4th), Tennessee (8th), Jacksonville (11th), Chicago (14th) and 12 games against teams ranked in the bottom half – Atlanta (18), Green Bay (19), Detroit (23), NY Giants (25), St. Louis (26), Carolina (27), Indianapolis (28), Minnesota (31), Tampa Bay (32). Nine of those games were against bottom 10 defenses. Granted, NO had something to do with those team’s points against average, but you see my point.
Finally, just as New Orleans’ offense is better than every offense SF has seen this year, the 49ers’ defense is better than every defense New Orleans has seen. The 49ers gave up an average of 14.313 points per game this year. At home, they gave up an average of 10.875. However, the offenses they faced were as weak as the defenses the Saints faced (nine games against bottom 10 offenses), so those numbers need to be qualified similarly. Still, SF’s defense is much more stingy about points than the defenses New Orleans faced this year.
Taking all of that together, I am not sure I agree that it will take 30 points to beat the Saints.
@ msclemons67:
Our numbers for the Saints’ scoring average on grass differ. I have 34 against GB, 23 against Jacksonville, 30 against Carolina, 20 against Tampa Bay, and 22 against Tennessee. 34+23+30+23+22=129 ÷ 5 = 25.8.
Where did I go wrong?
Claude,
it’s not just the season’s worth of stats that come into play here. Great teams peak at the right time. We are not peaking. If we were, then we would have put the worst team in football away by a wide margin in our last game.
The Saints are the HOTTEST team in football right now. Scarier than the Pack. They are peaking. Over their last five games they are averaging 37 points a game. So even if they slightly come down from that, it still means we are going to have to score around 30 points to beat them.
What they did at the beginning of the season doesn’t matter.
Does anyone here think that if the Saints played the Rams again they wouldn’t beat them by 30?
>>Great teams peak at the right time. We are not peaking. If we were, then we would have put the worst team in football away by a wide margin in our last game.
Bay, give me a “rule” and I’ll show you an exception. Last year Packers were 3-3 to close out the season, putting up 10 whole points in their last game, a game they *had* to win to advance. Not exactly roaring into the postseason either. We all know what happened from then on.
@bay:
Did you even pause 30 seconds to consider the sizeable amount of data that I took the time to organize and present to you, or were you already thinking about a comeback as soon as you saw that I didn’t agree with you? My opening paragraph acknowledged how well the Saints are playing. I even acknowledged Payton’s and Brees’ experience in winning playoff games. I do not believe I underestimated them in any way. Believe me, I took their recent play into consideration.
As for the Saints’ past five games, only the Tennessee game was outside, and the Saints scored 22 points in that game. As that game is the most similar to a 49ers-Saints matchup of any game New Orleans has played this year, let alone in the last 5 weeks, I think it may reinforce my point. Moreover, four of the Saints’ final six games were played at home, and the other away game was at Minnesota, no one’s idea of a sound defensive team.
I think those facts ought to be considered when judging how unstoppable New Orleans is and how thankful we should be that SF earned the 2 seed.
As for the final game against St. Louis, I’d say that the 49ers had the Rams put away by a wide margin (21 points) but became complacent and letting them close the gap. I don’t worry about complacency in the playoffs.
*let them close the gap.
@Claude – I your numbers are right. I probably typo’d on the calculator.
@claude
If I may.
You didn’t say AS sucks in your opening paragraph. Had you done that (you would have been wrong) bay would have paid closer attention.
@msclemons67:
Thanks for responding.
well if NO high scoring offense scores a lot then damn right the niner defense is the culprit….and should be held accountable….setting up a premise about the defense not showing up and then blaming the offense and more specifically AS is weak
Mike, here those stats:
opp result points pass yds tot yds
GB L 34 419 477
Jack W 23 351 503
Car W 30 359 444
TB L 20 383 453
Atl W (ot) 26 322 363
Tenn W 22 337 437
A couple of things stand out. They average a very beatable 25 points on grass. They still rack up a tonload of yards, especially in the air, but have little to show for it – going back to Grant’s point. Niners are much more efficient when it comes to points per offensive yards.
And don’t forget one of their wins came on the Mike Smith OT 4th down brainfreeze ;)
Ribico — FYI __ I’m pretty sure the game against ATL was on turf (indoors in ATL)
Ah, ok… even worse points per game as msc posted.
Opposing coach brainfreeze win still applies though ;)
Thanks!
Bay,
Gotta blame the defense because this Niner offense will not score 30 points. If anyone disagrees with me, tell me how that will happen. I have the Niners scoring 19-23 points. Our red zone issues have gone nowhere. Scoring against the Rams does not count. Our dield goal kickerhad to throw a td!? I did like it though!! Crabs was wide open andAkers didn’t overthrow him!!! lol
If we have a remedy for the Saints blitz schemes, we can compete with them. If our O line and QB has issues with that blitz, it gonna be ugly.
We need Ted Ginn back. He is an exceptional return man and he, along with Andy Lee,create great field position for us. He also stretches the field and takes the top off of the defense.
Our O line has to bring it. They are the key to the game. If they get beat, we get beat.
We need to generate a pass rush with our front 4. NO has an excellent offensive line. They are the best O line we”ve faced all year. Brees threw for 5K for a reason. we can’t afford to blitz the Saints. They have too many weapons. If we get any decent pressure, we will get 2 picks against Brees. Brees does take chances with his receivers.
We have to STOP Jimmy Graham. I think patrick can contain him but he cant stop Graham. The man is just too damn tall.
We can’t allow Chris Ivory to get loose on us. They can run the ball, but they arent supposed to be able to run it on us.
We may have to go with a safety on Graham. Dude is 6’7″ tall.
We have to stop Sproals. That guy is a chunk machine. I was hoping we would get him. He is a very big part of their passing game.
Bay, MD,
This, to me is our toughest matchup. I see GB being an easier matchup than the Saints. Gotta Hit Jimmy Graham at the line and Bowman has to follow Sproules everywhere. Saints got so many weapons. Moore was hurt. I don’t know if he will be back by then. We just lack the firepower. A quick score or 2 for us would be great. That would have to come via return from Ginn.
One more thing. NO gets after the ball for turnovers just like we do. We have to take care of the ball. This is the game where all of Smith’s turnovers he’s not had will hurt him. Big game. Too big for Smith guys. I hope I’m wrong. However, I know you guys are thinking it as well. I dont have issue saying it.
This is a game that we can’t win unless Smith does what Brees does. Smith needs a stellar game. The game of his life.
I think the Saints will be held to under 20 points if we do face them next week.
This may be me just thinking with my heart, but I honestly feel that the Niners are going to put a serious whoopin on their high powered offense.
My only question is can our offense put enough points on the board to win. I think they can and I think we’ll be talking about Green Bay a week from Monday :-)
In order to beat the Saints, Patrick Willis will have to blanket Graham who is Brees’ favorite target. However, Willis is at 6.1′ 240 lbs vs. Graham 6.6′ 260 lbs. There is the height disadvantage for Willis. I wonder if we could put Aldon Smith on Graham? The next question is can the Niners secondary cover Colston who is 6.4″ 220lbs? We are good against the run, but is vulnerable to the pass, especially against big receivers. The Saints probably has watched Fritzegrald burned the Niners earlier and the Rams backup QB torched the Niners last week.
If Aldon has to cover Graham that will be game over for San Francisco.
We will need to get pressure with 4. I would like to see Willis on Sproles, and some bracket coverage on Jimmy Graham. Hit the receivers at the line to not let them get a free release.
I STILL SEE THE LIONS UPSETTING THEM-THEY LOST A HARD ONE LAST WEEK AND I DONT SEE THEM LOSING TWO IN A ROW! THE SAINTS WILL BE ONE & DONE AND WE’LL HAVE THE GMEN COMING BACK TO CANDLESTICK!
Who are the G-men? Green Bay? If Green Bay were to lose their round in two weeks, then the winner of that game would come here, as we’d be the #1 seed. If they win (and we beat the Saints or Detroit,) we go to Wisconsin.
Giants. If the Lions win then the 49ers face the winner of the Giants-Falcons game.
I’m not sure I want a rematch with the Giants. That game was too close the first time. I’m still missing pieces of my liver.
I agree with Mr. No-Name (a.k.a Dan_Webb) … everybody is assuming that the Saints will win this week. There is no guarantee of that happening.
The difference in that game will be MS throwing two picks and fumbling once…turnovers are a big part in the game during the playoffs.
+1
Just saw a post on PFT mentioning how many players the Lions were missing in their previous matchup. Houston (best CB), Delmas, Suh (lead stomper) were all out. That helped the Saints jump out to an early lead.
The Lions’ D actually held the Saints in the 2nd half but they weren’t able to make up the lost ground. This game might be more fun to watch than I had previously thought.
Detroit is 1-5 against playoff teams this year.
The problem is Detroit had a ton of stalled drives early, couple of punts. That 21-point explosion by the Saints in the second quarter killed them. If they get behind again, I don’t see it.
But… if the pass rush can get to Brees they may have a chance. And, I agree with Hofer, if Stafford turns the ball over more than once (or twice at the outside,) they’re done.
Saints will win this week and it’ll be a blowout. The Lions defense is a joke and the Saints are two TD’s better at home than they are on the road.
Regarding a possible Niners/Saints matchup, the Niners would definitely have a good shot at winning that game for the exact reasons Grant mentioned. The Saints are a fast break offense built to play on a carpet under the dome. When they go outside and play on grass, it negates a number of their advantages. The most recent game I watched them play on grass (thank you NFL Rewind) was against the Titans, and they were within 5 yards of losing the game to Jake Locker who had taken over for an injured Hasselback. This is not the same team on the road and on grass. The Niners will have a great shot at winning this game should it happen.
I’m hearing the Lions are P-iced at that little comment from Harbaugh. They stood toe to toe with the Packers last week, so this could be a very interesting game. If the Lions defense can come in there fueled with Harbaugh rage and pressure Brees watch out for an upset.
Who cares? The only way the Niners would play the Lions would be in the Championship game at the stick so bring it on.
Precisely. If the Lions do win they go to Green Bay and the winner of the Falcons/Giants game comes to Candlestick.
In which case I’d hope for a Falcons win. The Giants front 4 is finally healthy and downright scary. Anthony Davis would spend the entire game on his back.
Which would mean that the 49ers would play a lesser team in the Falcons or Giants. So who should care? Anyone wanting an easier game for the 49ers.
giants team does seem a dangerous match up for the niners…..i would rather see NO or ATL
Seth,
The Lions stood toe to toe with the Packers Backups last week and still lost the game. The lions arent a problem in SF. I think the Lions do have a chance to beat the Saints. They just have to play a cleaner game. Negate the penalties and big plays.
Offensively, we will need to exploit the exotic blitz packages that Greg Williams will inevitably dial up. Some screens to Hunter and Gore, and establish the run early.
Do you really think you stand a.chance? You are going to be saying the same things about your cb’s. Saints are just too powerful. Cant cover them all!
So powerful they lost to the 2-14 Rams. On turf. Indoors.
Get out of here, try posting some smack over with the Lions. Saints will be lucky to escape next weekend.
The Saints have not seen a Defense like ours this year son.
Saints gonna eat Frisco gumbo ya. Frisco betta hope for plenty ah rainzzzz. Colston Henderson en Lance Moore. Oh en Graham is six foot seven. Who gonna gard that boy? You think Whitten was tough hehehe. AND YO QB SUCKS. Brees 46 touchdownzzzz Smith 16 hahahahaha. Hooooo. Hahahahahahaha. Who dat. Who dat. Betta hope it rain.
And then you woke up…!
Hebert,
you won’t be laughing when we sign Brees next year punk…
There is no way you are an actual Saints fan because they aren’t smart enough to find a random 49ers blog and post comments.
If you Heberts and DAT-heads thought Katrina was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Saints will be writing “Send Help” on the top of their helmets before it’s over.
(Tasteless, I know. But I had to go there)
Where’s that Eagles fan? I want to introduce him to this guy.
@Adam
“Where’s that Eagles fan?”
Looking for a decent QB, CB, LB core…heck. Let’s just say the whole team.
Bobby – be sure to bring your “Aints” paper bag when you go to watch the game – you’ll want to wear it on your way out the door after the Niners are done showing Brees what a real defense looks like.
Oh, nevermind the friendly advice about brining a bag. You probably have one already. Just take the one wrapped around that Boones you’re never without and it will fit nicely over your pea-sized head.
@whodat- its funny how saints fans were so sure they would beat the seahags last year in the playoffs and got spanked, now they r taking the lions lightlly, I smell upset again, at work there is a saints fan and he keeps running his mouth too.
Saints fans are funny guys win one super bowl amd now they come out of the wood work, win a couple then I’ll take u guys seriously.
Bay- stop with the blame game before they even play the game!
I think jh just wanted to put pressure on the saints stating that they’re preparing for them. And to fuel detroit to give them extra motivation. So balls in their court… Either way, i dont see the saints putting up 30-40 point at the stick. We’ll rush 4 and have the secondary ready for those big plays. If the niners can make the saints or whoever play 49er football, we got this in the bag.
That’s what I think too, JH is very calculated with the media he didn’t let that slip on accident. He put pressure on the Saints and pissed the Lions in one sentence. I would love to see the Lions in the Championship game, it’d be alot easier than the Packers.
Ideally, Niners to play the Falcons. The Lions upset GreenBay. NFC title is in Candlestick. Jim Harbaugh gives Jim Schwartz another rough handshake after the Niners win.
If our secondary gives up too many plays, then the fans have a right to blame said secondary. DG and TB are the weak points on this D. They have to cover better or it’s all over. Doesn’t matter how the offense plays if those two give up big plays like they have been. The offense could do a great job controlling the time clock and score effectively, but it won’t matter if DB and his cohorts score constantly and quickly on this secondary.
I suppose I should wish for DET and ATL to win so we’d get the Falcons. But I have to admit, that I want us to be able to beat anyone. NO at the Stick, as formidable as they are, is who I want.
Here’s another good reason. We fans debate endlessly the formula for SB wins. Is Smith/our offense good enough? Is our Defense good enough, etc. If we play NO at the Stick and we lose, then JH/Baalke are going to have a pretty good idea what they need to do to get to that final level. That’s actually a good thing.
Good call. This will be a good test for the 49ers. If they win, or are at least competitive then I think that validates the offensive system, including Smith. A bad loss and the team would have to re-evaluate.
If the 49ers win I put a lot less weight on the championship game. By winning a playoff game after a 10 year drought I think the system would be proven to work.
The regular season means squat come playoff time. Just ask these same Saints who were beaten by the Seahawks in the playoffs last year.
The “who did they play?” argument could be used on Green Bay too..and I heard they played ony three teams that had winning records?-something like that.
And everybody still thinks they are the best.
You’re right, I think they had the easiest or next to easiest schedule this year.
@Stan
I have used that argument.
For a Super Bowl winning team, they sure had an easy schedule. Facing the tougher teams when they already lost their key stars like Chicago without Matt Forte/and that QB (forgot his name at the moment. Need to find my memory pills).
Had they faced them when they were on a roll, it would have been a lot tougher game. Plus, Chicago nearly did beat them last year in the NFC title game and AR looked and played very average or mildly poor in that game, almost losing to the backup QB.
The Packers have played 5 games against playoff teams. They are 5-0 in those games.
Just the facts.
@msc
But when did they play those teams? Who on that team was injured?
And which 5 teams did they play anyway?
I can think of Atlanta and Lions. Atlanta wussed out and stopped playing after getting a lead, and Detroit is just a team full of wusses.
The point being that they didn’t have to face the Pats or NO or any of the big teams this year. And for a Super Bowl team, that is pretty odd.
DS,
The Packers beat New Orleans on the very first game of the football season, 42-34.
GB had a wild card regular season schedule nothing to do with winning a SB
That is the only way I would say bye-bye to Smith. The reality though is if the Niners did that, then they would have to let go of key free agents on both offense and defense. The draft can’t fix everything.
As far as Lowell on the Warriors?..Its like he’s the lone representative of NPR sports. Their director,reporter and columnists. I cant beleive I have to argue about Sue Slussers blind Beane love reporting isn’t journalism..and add the rest of SF Gate shill staff. Although-I haven’t heard any beat writers lately on KNBR..did the strike spread? or are they crossing the picket line on later shows I miss?
And Currys ankle is shot for good. I’ve lost count how many sprains I had per ankle from 14-34 years old shooting hoops. No matter how many years go by between sprains now,or how solid they feel..just a rounded twig,pebble,..and It wants to roll.
Curry was the Warriors best draft pick in decades…but its the Warriors..so it hasnt meant much has it?
To think they could have packaged Curry for a REAL star..now he’s damaged goods. Pennys on the dollar worth.
like howard
The Raiders, A’s and Warriors all get short shrift in the Bay Area news media. The 49ers and Giants get all the good coverage. I have no idea why that is aside from the Raiders being notoriously unfriendly to any media member who dares criticize them.
Speaking of which – did you hear what Mike Silver had to say today? He’s gonna get himself banned from the Collesium again, heh.
No-wha’d he say?
Ya kno… it’s funny to see “Bobbie Hebert’s” name, after all these years ..
Outside of him winning the USFL’s Championship Game (year 2 with the Oakland Invaders) … the only other memory I have of him is one game played
at Da Stick .. (vs the “Aints” )
Think it was Fred Dean and his cohorts .. (plus Ronnie Lott) … held a convention
in the backfield… and when the pile was finally cleared ..
Bobbie Hebert was carted off the field with a broken leg !
After the pre-season game this year in New Orleans, all anyone wanted to talk about was how the Saints’ Defense blitzed the Niners like crazy and the Niners couldn’t do anything to stop them after, what, 3 weeks of off-season.
But what I noted is that Drew Brees and the Saints first string offense could barely muster a 1st down against the Niners’ vanilla Defense in a new scheme and without Aldon Smith. As I recall, they had to settle for a field goal. The majority of the scoring was after the SF second stringers came in on Defense.
I think a Saints-49ers game would be far more competitive than most people think it would be. I think the Niners have a fighting chance. I also do NOT think it’s a given that the Saints score 30+ points on San Francisco.
In fact, I’d be surprised if either team scored more than 24 points.
Wow the chargers have fired Manusky! That was fast
Manusky coached the same prevent defense that he coached in SF.
It prevented the Chargers from winning.
“According to U-T San Diego, some Chargers players overwhelmingly wanted Manusky gone and endorsed linebackers coach John Pagano and defensive backs coach Steve Wilks as in-house replacements.”
I mean seriously, how bad were our previous coaches? Good grief.
I think it will be a higher scoring game than most people do. I think the winner will break 30 points. I think the Saints will blitz the hell out of the offense. Both Payton and G. Williams (D.C.) are ultra-aggressive. They will get after it. Smith will have opportunities to make plays, and I think he will. I said earlier in the year that he could have a very good game against a team like NO or GB but it may not be enough. The secondary has been vulnerable when the opponents open it up. These teams are opened up all of the time. That being said, Harbaugh and the staff have two weeks to prepare and the players have two weeks to rest and get healthy. I believe that will be the deciding factor if they face the Saints.
I hope not BigP. The 49ers have only managed 30 points 3 times this year and that was against bad teams.
If the score hits the 30′s the 49ers are likely toast. They just don’t have the ammo on offense for a shoot out.
How many teams win playoff games if they give up 30+ points?
Regardless of how stellar their offense is?
@msclemons:
I am not disagreeing with you, but this seems like the appropriate line of discussion to provide some context for San Francisco’s offensive production, or lack thereof.
The 49ers played a fairly tough collection of defenses this year. In terms of scoring defenses, the 49ers played teams whose defenses ranked 1 (Pitt), 3 (Baltimore), 5 (Cleveland), 7 (Seattle), 9 (Cincinnati), 10 (Philly), 16 (Dallas), 17 (Arizona), 21 (Washington), 23 (Detroit), 25 (NY Giants), 26 (St. Louis) and 32 (Tampa Bay).
That’s seven games against top 10 defenses. By contrast, the Saints played two.
In terms of yardage allowed (this is for bay), those same teams ranked 1, 3, 10, 9, 7, 8, 14, 18, 13, 23, 27, 22 and 30.
Once again, that’s seven games against top 10 defenses.
New Orleans’ defense was ranked 13th in terms of scoring (21.2 points/game) and 24th in terms of yardage (368.4 yards/game).
What I am saying is that, just like there are reasons not to automatically assume that New Orleans will equal it’s season scoring average, perhaps there also are reasons not to assume that the 49ers will be held to their season scoring average.
They don’t have the ammo for a shoot out, but they do have the ammo to score 30 if they capitalize in the red zone. The opportunities have been there all year, they simply have not been able to get it done. I think the Saints will play ultra-aggressive on offense and defense. It’s high risk, high reward football. The Niners D has had problems when teams put multiple receiving options on the field. The Saints do that consistenly and at a very high level. I do think the Niners win the game though, and I think they score 30-31 points. I think that’s what it will take.
so looks like NO is sort of like a bend not break defense albeit not great
does NO redzone defense actually play well
Claude I am going to disagree with you regarding playing tough defenses. We did don’t get me wrong. But I also like accountability. There were three areas that we shot ourselves in the foot in. First, offensive line. This group took some time to learn to play together. This does not resemble the same group that started the season.
Two, the play calling is somewhat bland. Situational game calling, especially in the red zone. I don’t know if the play calling will evolve.
Three, quarterback play. I’ve mentioned through the season the accuracy issues. I know we can’t hit them all, but the ones that stick out were all the missed TD’s.
So here is my question. Do you acknowledge the missed big shots, and if you do, how do you think that will be resolved in the future? Is it something that you think we’ll just have to live with?
Bay,
I’ll answer the question. Yes, AS has missed open receivers [primarily on deep sideline passes]. Which, of course, I don’t like.
I’m hopeful that, since AS hasn’t even had a full year in JH’s O and has improved quite a bit already, he will continue to improve. Sooner, rather than later, and more, rather than less would be great, but who really knows?
I also don’t like it when any 49er doesn’t execute, as I’m sure you’ll agree.
One thing we can count on is a good game plan. They’ve been rolling the pocket a bit more lately. Against the Steelers they rolled the pocket more and they stretched the defense out sideline to sideline.
This is a good approach.
I hope I’m wrong about Gore. A healthy Gore really does change everything…..
I hope you’re wrong about Gore, too. Definitely need him!
I suspect the last game or two that ankle was bothering him. I don’t think it’s the hip (at least I hope it isn’t.)
I could careless who we beat to get to SB. People will most likely remember who we beat in the SB, not who we beat in the nfc championship.
Unless it’s 1981-1998 or thereabouts, when the NFC Championship was the Superbowl! Ahhh, the glory days.
Total agree ..remember those 0-4 Bills?
Unless it’s 1994…
Nope! Everyone will remember the 14-1 Packers getting beat by a rookie head coach and a recovering QB. Im telling you. If we beat the Saints. We are going to the Superbowl and winning it
MD,
+1!
Now you’re talking!
+2
+3!
Jonathan Goodwin admits his first month with the Niners was hard for him to get in a groove. New OL teammates, new system, new plays, etc. He’s in his groove now and perhaps will be able to do better pre snap reads and assignment calls. He practiced against Greg Williams’ blitzes the last few years of his career. He should be able to use that knowledge against his old teammates. The entire O line will also be able to hear his assignment calls better than they did at the Superdome. The Ravens and Cardinals games were jagged pills to swallow but they taught this O line much about blitz protections. Peele will be in to block so Vernon will be free to catch the quick slants. Let Roman Harper blitz and burn him when he does. Much like the famous bayou crawfish, I see the Saints walking backwards.
If the Saints don’t really commit heavy to stopping the run, I think the 49ers will try to ram Gore down their throat 30+ times. If they really commit to stopping the run, play-action over the top of the LB’s to the venerial brothers. However, if the saints blitz on early downs, which I think they’ll likely do anyways, then it becomes more of a chess-game, with Harbaugh trying to call the right play against the right blitz. And my goodness, we need TD’s, not field goals.
On defence, it’s all about the pass rush. I expect a 4-man rush until the saints O-line proves they can stop that without max protect. If we’re not getting pressure with 4, look for the occasional blitz up the middle. They’ll play a combo zone-man coverage, with an extra guy over the top on Graham in particular on many plays (I wanna see Goldson whallop him early…get him thinking about the next one…I’ll take a 15 yard flag for that). Bottom line, can’t give Brees time. He’s too good at finding someone open.
I should add, if the Saints blitz a lot, I wanna see some bootlegs! I wanna see ‘em even if they don’t blitz. Alex. has. wheels.
“Who would of thought the finess a$$ 49ers would come into Chicago and whoop that ***?” R Lott. After No one thought the 9ers would go into cold Chicago and win. The Saints are a different team now, and they are clicking on all cylinders. If we beat this team next Sat. WE WILL be going to the Superbowl. This is THE best team in the NFL right now. And they are smoking hot on top of that. . This will be the toughest Challenge in the Playoffs. Mark my words……We beat N.O. We are going to Indy!
That is good information, I knew the Saints were not great playing outside and this shows we can beat the Saints at the Stick, against Green Bay that will be a different story, especially at Green Bay, our defense is going to have the win that game with strong play.
NO WAY. The CHEFS ran through them. It will be a huge test for the defense for sure, but our offense should shred that holy cheese defense.
It will be a tough game if we get past the Saints, even when we had a great offense with Steve Young we had a hard time winning at Green Bay, don’t ever any Niner team beating the Packers at Green Bay
There’s an old adage in the NFL, good defense beats good offense. Also, there is another saying in horse racing, horses for courses. If a good turf horse runs his best race on a firm surface but the conditions come up soft (wet) he never runs his race. The Saints are fast track team, no doubt, plus they are playing a team that has a D. The Niners have an excellent shot.
That’s brilliant stat crunching my man.. nice work
We must run the ball good to have a chance. Thus using up the clock and keeping there blitzing on the back burner. Third downs are going to be the key.Third and long is scary—please call slants and screens—on defense they have so many weapons you gotta roll the dice and play man to man. brees will kill ya on zone d. And NEVER rush 3. The niners could win with great ball control and a couple of turnovers. o-lineMUST STOP THERE BLITZ–GO S.F. 49ERS
I see Yall 9er’s fans talk’in real Jazzy about your defense ! Listen folks ! And Listen Good ! You don’t wanna see N.O . Pray for the Giants or ATL It would be easier on yall ! And like some of you said. You would have to score 30 r more !!! Which aint gonna happen ! So your best bet would be to hope for a Saints lose !!
Quit simply the Saints will adjust as do all great teams. The 49ers of the 80s, The great teams for Steelers, The past teams of the Cowboys. The list goes on. How many records does the Saints have to break before the nation realize we have become one of those great teams of the past. No one believed in NO after Katrina. Understand something we believed in our Great city of New Orleans and we believe in our beloved Saints. Who Dat!!!!!
Being a former Bay Area resident during the 80s. I had absolute respect for the city of San Francisco. But, I am Creole from NOLA. We do things with emotion & passion. Our food, music, our traditions that are hundreds of years old. Just as Jean Lafet brought Andrew Jackson gun powder & flint to defeat the Brithish. As the city has return post-katrina Rita. These acts where acts of passion and emtion.. So shell the Saints victory over the 49ers, no matter if it on grass or the middle of the swamp (bayou). Who Dat!!!!!
Now lets talk foot. You 49ers hears football 101. In order to have a passing game. You frist establish a running game. Therefore lets look at the Saints/49er matchup. You guys did stop this attach before, so what make you think you will stop it how. Also, consider how the Saints are exicuting their plays. Also, their best play is in the second have. Making the adjustment to grass will be addressed per Mr Sean Payton. Also, not mention he is a coaching gensis. You are weak in your secondary. Your outside rush is lagging. Detriot out looked pretty good
cont’ the Lions’ outside rush was pretty good and effective. They even managed t ok get to Breas. But can someone tell what was the final score. Unless you can put pressure on Drew each and every play. He will fine and olen man. Also, understand something else. Mr Breas is not the true center pice of the offense. That offensive line and running game is Saintly. Defensively you guys will be well contain. Your QB has not found himself. He will be eating grass while he is looking.