Here’s how the 49ers 2012 draft will play out.
1. They’re going to draft the best player available in the first round, and he will be Stanford TE Coby Fleener. He will instantly improve the Niners’ biggest weakness – their passing attack – and he will eventually replace Delanie Walker, who will be a free agent after this season.
2. They’re going to trade up in the second round for Amini Silatolu, a guard from Midwestern State who’s drawn comparisons to Mike Iupati. They’ll swap second round picks with their trade partner, and then they’ll include their fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh round picks for Silatolu, who will be the Niners’ right guard of the future. In 2012 he will compete with Daniel Kilgore – the Niners’ center of the future – for the right guard job, along with a veteran the team will sign after the draft. The veteran will probably win the job this year and Silatolu will back him up while Kilgore backs up the starting center, Jonathan Goodwin.
Update: My math was off. To move up the necessary 15 spots to draft Silatolu in the 2nd round, the Niners would have to trade their fourth and fifth round picks this year and their third round pick in 2013. That’s still a good trade for the Niners – they need a potential stud interior lineman more than they need a few mid round picks.
3. They’re going to draft the best available receiver with their third-round pick. Cal’s Marvin Jones would be ideal. If he’s already been picked, the Niners will draft Miami’s Tommy Streeter.
Those three draft picks will be the 51st, 52nd and 53rd players on the Niners’ 2012 roster.
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Future Teller!
No way they swap second round picks and add FOUR more picks just to get Silatolu. Trading five picks for one pick, and for a Guard? No way.
According to old coach, it would cost the fourth, the fifth and next year’s third to move up the necessary 15 spots for Silatolua. So, three picks. It’s worth it for the Niners.
no way baalke would go for that grant!! like, dleo says…if that dude was such a stud, they draft him with the 30th pick…you cannot afford to give up those mid round picks these days. There are alot of home runs in these drafts, not just on day one!
No one really knows what will happen except those doing the drafting and they might change their minds a dozen times before the draft actually happens. It is my understanding that the draft board is constantly changing and will continue to change during the draft. Grant was right, they haven’t drafted a back. They picked one up in FA. This is just a guessing game right now and even the pro handicappers are making different guesses at this time. Grant has to have something to write and fact or fiction it is fun to read. Maybe tea leaves would work also.
we should wheel n’ deal and go 4 Trent Richardson!!!!!
i couldnt agree more with Hox. we need a blue chip/impact player now. WR take 2-3yrs to develop. RB’s on the other hand go to business rt away
Hox is rt on the money. Think BIG, Be BIG.
hahaha now thats funny
lets wheel n’ deal for Trent Richardson!!!!!
Yep. That’s what I was thinkin’ too.
I would LOVE this!!!
Do you have inside infor?
Grant has no inside info. He just tells fans what they want to hear. There’s absolutely no insight or data to suggest any of his articles have 1 ounce of credibility. Grant suggested SF sign all the hot WRs like VJax, M. Wallace, S.Johnson, etc a month ago when there was CLEAR indication SF would go after any of those guys. I only read his articles to see how much fluff and BS he comes up with. I’m really ashamed to have him associated with a SF logo.
Some of us think this is fun to say “what if” so the question is… Why are YOU here?
Grant is not saying “what if”. He is saying this as if he knows it will happen for a fact. I can write a better article than this guy.
Go for it. Maybe I’ll link you if you write better than you comment.
Grant,
I do write for SF. They are more in-depth than yours with much more insight, backed up by data and not by bull. No disrespect to you, but you make me disappointed to be a niners fan. I really do wish you spent more time on your articles.
What’s your name? Maybe I’ve read you. You must have a large following.
Go elsewhere then. I like Grant’s style. It’s better than crap articles that show a bias no matter what.
@ninerminer81: If you’re really a writer, then you’re hardly a sophisticated one. But perhaps you’re only pretending to be ignorant of Grant’s use of the conceit of writing about some topic or other with feigned omniscience – a conceit so time-worn that by now everyone “gets” it. Well, almost everyone . . .
Everybody wants to take a shot Grant. Let’s get to your analysis, Flenner is overpriced, big tight ends are the flavor of the month. In a past blog I stated that Gronkowski went at 42, Graham at 95 in their draft class. Today they’d be top 15 at least. The three highest value positions in today’s pass happy climate are, pass protectors, pass rushers and pass defenders.
At 30 one of those positions will be available. Some team will think Flenner is the Next Big Thing and push up his value. I think Stephen Hill or Kendall Wright may be there, anyway we’ll see.
…81
God god man, what’s gotten into you? Get some help before you pop your cork.
Be well.
…ninerminer81 is right on…..everything he wrote is accurate…..that is why none of you are disputing his facts but instead attacking him for being honest……
How can you say 91 is being honest-when he clearly lied about being a writer..unless..Is that you Steve(aka BASG)?
Grant, your posts are a delight to read. People take football way too seriously, as if it were life and death instead of a game.
Thanks, Joseph.
Grant. It’s hard to imagine how you come up with some of these draft moves, but I still enjoy reading your perspective on what the niners are/should do. Grant. Keep up with the BLOG. 81….You should read Fox News articles for their truthfulness and insight.
There is absolutely zero chance that baalke concedes that many draft picks.
Yeah I agree with you on that. Baalke loves his draft picks.
I doubt it will actually take that many picks to make this trade. But I like the thinking here.
If the Niners have to trade up 15-20 spots to get Silatolu who’s being projected as a top-45 pick, I think it will cost all four picks – the fourth, the fifth, the sixth and the seventh, plus a swap of the twos. The Niners don’t need their lower round picks this season – they have plenty of depth.
No way we trade 5 picks to move up to pick a G that played at a DII school. Just because he’s a big somoan doesn’t mean he’s the next iupati.
I have to agree with Ninerminer on this one. We’ve found starters (pretty good ones, too) in those rounds we’d be trading away for that guard. We already have two small school-interior lineman being groomed for O-line duty.
Giving up a second, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh round picks just to move up 15-20 spots? Too steep a price to pay IMHO.
They’d have to make up between 150 and 200 points on the trade chart. The fourth is worth ~50 points. The fifth is worth ~30. The sixth is worth ~ 15. And the seventh is worth ~3. So, it might not be enough, actually.
it’s not so much a matter of the price so much as it is that sacrificing a chance to put his scouting mettle to use in the value rounds seems counter to baalke’s dna. the move could make perfect sense, but a person is who he or she is. the scenario you have described makes perfect sense for the 2012 49ers, but there is no team in existence that drafts based on the upcoming season alone.
I don’t know that it will play out that way, but I would rather have 3 legit picks then 7 selections where only 1 or 2 of them even make the team.
I think Amini Silatolu will be available late in the 2nd round. He’s rated the 3rd best OG by Mayock, but lower by CBSports.com. Anyway, even if he’s gone, there will other quality OGs available late 2nd round like Osemele, Washington, Kelemete, Brown.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2012/OG
Couldn’t agree more Matty,
No way Baalke pulls a move like that. Sure it’s easy for Grant to play High Stakes Poker like a Drunkin’ Sailor!
It’s not his job on the line. I can see Baalke trading up but not for that many Draft Picks.
I’m telling you Grant is 1 Frickin’ Goofy kid!
I agree, draft picks are like gold. Baalke may move up but there is a better chance he moves down if the top wide outs are gone.
Completely agree, zero chance. Move up possibly, but I’d bet a lot of money at terrible odds that the niners don’t use three picks to move up 15 spots. Honestly not a chance.
What are these ugly looking faces we have.We gotta be better looking than this lmao
Have heard crazier scenarios, I can actually see this happening. What a good position to be in. The niners usually have so many needs in the draft now they can truely take the best player available. It’s almost bizarre seeing the niners not picking in the first 12 picks of the first round.
” he will be Stanford TE Coby Fleener.”
Grant, I’m starting to believe. VD and DW are similar TEs albeit DW doesn’t have VD’s speed. CF and VD would compliment each other. CF would be the RZ guy and 3rd down guy – just throw it up and let him go get it. Sounds good!
That’s if he can stay healthy
I just don’t think he makes it to #30 because he is such an obvious choice. A team that really needs a TE might grab him before knowing that he most likely won’t make it past the Niners.
BigP: “A team that really needs a TE…” think about that when we’re reading about possible drafting or trading up for Fleener in the first.
Hey Hof -thanks for sharing your mock-I appreciate your thoughts on the matter and our shared enthusiasm about the draft is something I’m hoping will continue in the years to come(Always Faithful,brother!).You know my thoughts on Fleener,Polk definetly would be a solid pick ,I concur with your assertion about the RB’s (only three seem to be certain -AD not one of them imo)Tramaine is someone not mentioned much lately but definetly an interesing prospect! Another guy of interest not talked about much recently is Devon Wylie WR Speedy Compact and another guy to bolster our KR capability.All in good work looking forward to more in the future-TOP!!
IN HARBAALKE I TRUST!!!
I think the 49ers do trade up but I also see them trading this year’s draft picks for picks the following year.
I can see them trading for the guard but I dont see them giving them four draft picks. I do believe draft picks in round 5 thru 7 have a slim to none chance of making this team so to me it wouldnt matter if we traded them. We are finally at a point where the BPA is prudent draft picks in all our selections. I sure hope your right about Fleener, he will be a huge addition to the offense.
You think the fourth round draft pick will be the sticking point?
Not sure Grant, but hey if it took the fourth round pick so be it. That pick might also have a problem making this team. It is so nice to be able to think in those terms where we have enough talent to even consider giving up those picks.
CF will absolutely be available at 30. I think SF is paranoid with Fleener being taken. He’s a tall TE that cannot block. Only SF is in need of that type of TE. By the way, for a TE that played with Luck, he didn’t have the production that goes along with being a 1st rounder. SF needs a G big time and needs to consider trading back from round 1 to early round 2 to pick up K. Zeitler.
@ninerminer, Fleener averaged 19+ yards per catch for a team that was very balanced. He is the real deal. Watch him on film, and he is just running away from DB’s.
@ Jackhammer
No doubt Fleener is talented. You can make the same argument about a lot of other players in this year’s draft at other positions like V.Curry, D. Davis, M.Floyd, etc. If he was great, the team would give him the ball more often like Maryland did with VD. Does the real deal mean a 1st round? Not always. K.Hunter was a 4th round. T.Brown was a late round. Lots of 1st rounders did not pan out.
My thinking is that because of the emergence of tall, athletic TE’s last year as well as the 49ers and Belichick’s use of 2-TE sets, Fleener will have a much higher market value than usual.
@Grant:
Bold prediction. I have three questions.
Is your prediction based upon any special knowledge/insight or is it more of a wild guess?
Are you putting money on your prediction?
Are the 49ers really going to ignore all the DL talent that will be available in this draft?
It’s my best guess, and I don’t bet for money but if you’d like to post your own mock draft you’re welcome to.
I don’t think the Niners will draft DL depth in this draft, no. Maybe next year. They’ll give Tukuafu and RJF another year to distinguish themselves. Plus, I don’t suspect they want to cut Dobbs or Ian Williams.
Williams wasn’t even on full time Practice Squad last year and RJF has not made any impacts on defense. Dobbs is a 1 gap penetrator and is a run stopper at best. If Vinny Curry is available in late 1, SF better consider.
@ninerminer, “Williams wasn’t even on full time Practice Squad last year.” Right, he was on the 53 man roster instead.
@hammer
Yeah right. Ian Williams struggled to even make it on practice squad. SF would never have a third string DT on the 53 man roster who can’t contribute on ST, there’s no space for that.
@ninerminer, Williams was on the 53 man roster, but not the game day roster. They had to keep him on the 53. They would have needed to have him go through waivers before adding him to the practice squad and they didn’t want to lose him.
49ers 53-Man Roster Updates
by David Fucillo on Sep 5, 2011 6:01 AM PDT in 49ers Roster
53-MAN ROSTER
QB (3): Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Scott Tolzien
RB (3): Frank Gore, Anthony Dixon, Kendall Hunter
FB (2): Moran Norris, Bruce Miller
TE (2): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker
WR (5): Braylon Edwards, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Kyle Williams, Ted Ginn
OT (3): Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Alex Boone
OG (5): Mike Iupati, Chilo Rachal, Adam Snyder, Daniel Kilgore, Mike Person
C (1): Jonathan Goodwin
NT (2): Isaac Sopoaga, Ian Williams
DE (5): Justin Smith, Ray McDonald, Ricky Jean Francois, Demarcus Dobbs, Will Tukuafu
OLB (4): Aldon Smith, Parys Haralson, Ahmad Brooks, Antwan Applewhite
ILB (5): Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Larry Grant, Blake Costanzo, Tavares Gooden
CB (5): Carlos Rogers, Shawntae Spencer, Tarell Brown, Chris Culliver, Tramaine Brock
S (6): Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner, Reggie Smith, Madieu Williams, C.J. Spillman, Colin Jones
K (1): David Akers
P (1): Andy Lee
LOS (1): Brian Jennings
@LeftSchuh, thanks for finding and posting that.
@ninerminer, it helps to know what you are talking about prior to telling someone they are wrong.
@Jack
The guy played one game (career) and did nothing of note. That is as close to being right while still being wrong that somebody can be.
And Ian Willimas is hardly a household name either. So cut the guy a break here.
@DS, Actually he was right. Williams wasn’t on the practice squad last year : )
@Grant
Why do you think the Niners have any good ideas about Ian Williams having a future on this team?
Whoever the guy is, he is signed for a 1 year deal at 1 $465,000. Considering all the time you spent writing about AS contract not being long enough at 3 years if the Niners really wanted him, I am very confused how you can say the Niners really want Ian Williams who is paid for only 1 year for a lot less money. He is the 14th lowest paid player on the team.
Things are not connecting here Grant.
I love how you tried to conflate Alex Smith and Ian Williams. That was impressive.
Williams will continue to be cheap. Why did they have on the team last year if he couldn’t play special teams? It seems obvious to me they’re developing him as a possible replacement for Sopoaga at NT down the line. Williams has always been a project, and it wouldn’t make sense to abort the project now.
Grant, conflate today, split-infinitive yesterday, I am having flashbacks to high school English classes. Now I wish I had paid more attention…
I’m sending you to the principal’s office.
No Grant.
It was you who made the big deal about the Niners signing other players before signing AS. And talking about the length of contract. Insinuitng that somehow all those who signed before AS were viewed as having a more vital impact on the Niners. And those who siged for longer contracts are somehow more important. Even though essentially, all players are basically on 1 year contracts (only matters if the team is willing to pay any undue signing bonuses).
I among many others here didnot care if AS didn’t sign first.
Note: Drew Brees hasn’t really signed anything yet either. Does that mean that the Saints don’t value him as much as those who they have singed like Colston or anybody else?
I never heard Williams name in a game. So his loss would be far from earth shattering for this defense or team.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14461/ian-williams
The guy played in one game and acccording to these stats didn’t do much. I don’t see how losing this guy or replacing him would be that big a deal at all. Dobbs was more impressive and played more games than Williams. Dobbs at least logged in 5 games worth of time and had some tackles. Williams may have been on the team. But so were Swain and Hastings. Does that mean a thing? What are the odds either of those players are back?
And projects are dumped all the time. In light of a player who isn’t such a project and can produce now. You spent a great deal of time tyring to convince us that the Niners don’t want AS. If that were so, why would they want Williams?
Williams made the 53-man roster out of training camp, so your comparison to Swain and Hastings is off base.
The Niners like their NT – Sopoaga. They can afford to develop a cheap project like Williams, which is what they’re going.
The Niners are not satisfied with their QB – Alex Smith – which is why they traded up for Kaepernick, tried to sign Matt Hasselbeck in ’11, tried to sign Peyton Manning and signed Josh Johnson.
Ian Williams and Alex Smith have nothing in common besides the fact they’re both 49ers.
When the Niners were at draft day last year they had NO QB on the roster.
Last time I checked, you need a QB to play the game of football. Might as well get one you like while you’re at it.
And I can’ believe you are brining up the MH thing. Seriously?
Big deal if Hastings and Swain wern’t around on day 1. That just means that Willimas was around longer and in a depleted DL rotation, found the playing field only once. And did nothing there. ST or defense. He only played in 1 game. Please tell me specifically what play he made last year? Or didn’t make? Any play at all.
Ever since the Title game Grant, your posts have been all negative about AS. Not a single good post about the guy. Your prediction for that game was a Niners blow-out, and it wasn’t. They lost. And since then, you have blasted AS almost exclusively for that loss. Maybe you’re not aware of it, but some here are.
Johnon is here to compete with CK and Tolzein. Likely one of those 3 won’t be on the team come game 1. AS will be. Johnson didn’t do anything in Tampa to convice any reasonable person that the job is his. AS at least got somebody to offer him similar money to the Niners after 1 week of looking. Johnson found nobody but the Nienrs after almost a month when teams knew he would be let go.
If all 4 QB’s play even, AS is the starter. CK is the back-up and it is a toss-up between Tolzein and Johnson for the emergency QB. Johnson has the advantage of having played with JH for several years, Tolzein has the advantage of actually playing with him last year and knows this team better than Johnson. In fact, don’t be shockd if neither QB is on the team after TC. The Niners could easily find a vet to come in as an emergency QB after the final cuts before the season begins.
Alex Smith deserves everything I’ve written about him.
It would be nice sometimes Grant if you talked about some of the good things some experts say about him as well.
I mean, when have you ever brought up Terry Bradshaw’s comments about AS during a Pre-game show? Or Rich Gannon’s? Or even God himself, Joe Montana’s comments on QB, and his comments about how a QB needs others a lot more than many think and how much time it takes to become good in a system?
You only dish out the stuff that is bad about the guy. Terry said great things about AS all year long. About how he (Terry) couldn’t even master 1 system in a decade, and how he is amazed at AS doing so well. You must have seen the pre-game shows. Why not bring his views to counter Cossells “He sucks” mantra? Other bloggers have linked articles and links to show other points of view.
It would be nice if you did a pro-con on every issue. Like all the resons why AS is good for the team on one blog. Then the next blog why AS is not good for this team. Or why the Niners should draft guy x in one blog, then the next give a good list of reasons why they should not draft guy x. And so forth.
Give pro and cons about each thing. Let us bloggers tear our hair out wondering what you personally think. Like I suggested to Max, don’t tell the audinence every little thing. Leave them space to change their minds at a moments notice. Always keep them guessing. The are smarter than you think if you challenge them in this manner.
I hope Max didn’t follow your suggestion. He’s an excellent writer and you aren’t qualified to critique his prose.
I will continue to give my opinions. I’m entitled to and I want to. You’re free to give yours’ as well.
And I have not only written negative things about Alex Smith. I wrote a pro/con article about him a month ago, and I’ve written other positive things as well.So, once again you have your facts wrong.
It was an observation I’ve made about Joss Whedon, and the many interviews I have seen on Charlie Rose have basically said as much as well.
I suggest you watch a movie/show written by Joss Whedon (Toy Story, Buffy, Angel, Firefly) and start watching PBS “Charlie Rose” for interviews he does with reporters, screen-writers, book authors and observe what theme(s)/qualities are present among many of them.
Don’t give the answer. Give the situation, and let others judge for themselves the outcome.
I do not aspire to be like Joss Whedon – the writer of the Buffy the Vampire Slayer TV series.
Bet you’d aspire to make his salary though Grant.
: – )
You’ve got that right, pal.
…I agree DS…after the season Grant has being almost always wrong and too cocky, he deletes comments that are not favorable to him (kinda like what a 24yr old would do)………i bet Grant does not last in the business…….I wonder why the press democrat don’t consider Grant a reporter…….you will think with all the hits on the blog Grant will receive some credit but the fact remains everyone knows Grant does not deserve to be this site blogger……we need a real reporter who can write and has sources…..
…..just look at what he just wrote…”The Niners are not satisfied with their QB – Alex Smith – which is why they traded up for Kaepernick, tried to sign Matt Hasselbeck in ’11, tried to sign Peyton Manning and signed Josh Johnson.”….
…dude……this is not flag football where you are forced to pick players…..its a business, and if the 49ers don’t believe in Alex they won’t have re-signed him twice……….the funny thing is all what he wrote is just speculation he has no inside source to back those comments up…..
@oneniner
I just noticed how Grant deleted your comment yesterday to Pork, but he did not delete the equally “bad” comment Pork wrote back to you in reply. I do find it interesting as to which posts he chooses to delete and which he does not.
I’m not going to say that your post did or didn’t deserve deletion. Only that a lot worse things have actually been written and never got deleted. AKA just about any 23J post where he calls others names, which is just about any of his posts.
Damn…. Ds. Are you a German from the 40′s? You continue to TELL grant what to write and complain about him calling it fair about Alex smith. Yet you continue to post more than anyone on here. If you go to the Webzone they allow you to write your own articles. Maybe you’ll be happier there. And to prove this point. You have onelame agreeing with you. That alone should wake you up. Seriously ds. I’m trying to keep the peace, but your whining about what grant writes is driving most on here crazy. And like I said in the past.. Anyone that can agree with onelames warped sense of reality. Is getting smacked also. Man up or woman up. Quit telling people what to write or think, quit being a snitch, and enjoy the board or bounce.
@DS,
Grant did write many goood things about AS, it was a very objective piece but you can no longer use the argument that JH beleives in AS, like you Smithers do, as they say action speals larger then words and that was all thrown out when the nioners went after PM and signed JJ, who many scouts believe that he and CK arfe way better long term solutions then your man crush. .
sorry about thet type O’s , blame it on the cell phone
Grant although i do not always agree with your opinion you always have a rationale for your perspective. As a die hard niner fan its so strange to see some bloggers just support one specific player even if that player has the opportunity to do better and disregard other players and point fingers for their head despite the coaches support.
DS,
Once again, you continue to display your football illiteracy. You don’t even try and include any facts in your useless rants about this sport. You try and tell Grant how to run his blog. You’ve been doing that for how long??? Your rants are a waste of time and I read them because you give me a hearty laugh. You are NEVER anywhere near the truth. All you do is swing on Alex Smith’s nutz!
You’re the only clown on this blog that thinks Smith really has a 3 year deal. You’re the only idiot that thinks the Niners could get Larry Fitz. The only clown that thinks the Niners are unhappy with Michael Crabtree. The only clown that doesn’t know anything about college football, yet continues to rant about the draft.
How about this. Just shut your trap and read tge blog without commenting for a couple of weeks. You might actually learn something! Beat it!!
@23J
Welcher, Welcher Man. I wanna be a Welcher Man!
You are 23J. Welcher, Welcher man!
@md
Grant wrote a piece about AS being the most valuable player on the Niners before the Giants game. Since that game he has only smashed him. His points are absurd.
That AS is not the first players signed means something? Really? That is sadly pathetic reporting. Drew Brees hasn’t signed anything either. The Saints signed a lot of players this year. Does that mean that they don’t think DB is important? Or as important?
Grant has stirred the pot an awful lot since the Title game. And it is always being stirred in one direction.
@DS, “And it is always being stirred in one direction.”
DS, That is not true. Prior to leaving on vacation Grant wrote a nice piece in which he discussed both the positives and negatives for Alex Smith based on his performance in 2011.
@DSL
Still got Pork in your mouth, huh lil buddy? Can’t get enough Ds for those DSLs?
Your pomposity and arrogance are despicable. Get back in Alex’s closet and don’t come out again!
@ Grant-
If Hill & Fleener are both there, do you think they go Fleener? I know you would, and I think I would. Is that how you see Baalke going?
If you aren’t sure, have Lowell give Trent a call for some inside scoop; jk
It seems to me like Fleener would be the pick because he could get on the field quicker. Hill would back up Moss in ’12 – nothing more. You could draft Moss’ backup in the third (Streeter). That’s my logic.
@Grant. Yeah, trying to think like a GM, Fleener seems safer too.
I think Hill would have a very difficult time getting on the field this year if they selected him, he is very raw.
@ Grant
Why would SF want to have anything to do with Streeter. The guy can’t catch! Are you basing this solely on his 40?
Ninerminer,
Did you miss the part where Grant said he would be Moss’s backup in 2012? Streets would essentially have a full season(barring an injury to one of the starting WRs) to develop and learn the playbook. He can also work on those hands on the process.
If Hill, Fleener, and Richardson are all there, that would pose a major delima.
If Richardson falls past 10 the Niners should seriously consider trading Gore and a bundle of draft picks for him. There won’t be a better running back in next year’s draft. He’s a total stud.
Wow! I can’t imagine Richardson falling that far, but its an easy choice for me; BPA = Richardson. Too easy, Frank would get it too.
Grant, I can name a better back in next year’s draft that will make Richardson look like Knowshon Moreno. No way we trade Gore or picks to move up to get richardson. He’ll have to fall to the 20′s to get consideration.
Name him, ninerminer.
If Richardson falls past the Browns Holmgren should be fired.
Rueben Randle is a steal and they can get him in the second round. Forget about his 40 time at the combine, he can catch, block and works his tail off. Jerry Rice had a slow 40 time, funny how he saw so many defensive backs in the rear view mirror during his career.
..ha ha….”There won’t be a better running back in next year’s draft.”……..seriously dude…your arrogance is way out there…..let me guess the Smurfs are your source!!!!!
Fleener won’t be there at 30 and Balke won’t trade all those picks for a 2nd rounder. I can see trading multiple picks for moving up in the 1st, but only for DeCastro and he probably won’t make it to 15. I don’t think we go that high. If it’s BPA in the 1st @ 30, then we’ll get what we get and probably, if we trade picks away, we’ll go for 2 in the 2nd and 1 in the 3rd.
They may trade up in the 1st for either DeCastro or a CB like J. Jenkins.
@Nick, Decastro is a stud but the price is too high. Jenkins might be there at 30. With bounty-gate character issues are taking center stage and this could bring Jenkins down the ladder.
@ andrew
I like the way u think but he probably wont last until the 60th pick for us in the second round. Even though he ran a 4.55 in Indy he improved that to 4.43 and 4.42 at his pro day. Couple that with the fact that he played and produced in the SEC, practiced vs Claiborne (top 5 pick) and p.Peterson (top 5 pick) daily . And is 6’4 215 and I see any number of WR needy teams geting him. For my monay id rather have him than Hill who is a project in every sense coming from that funky GT system.
@BOS
Are you thinking of Randle the WR from LSU? I think Andrew mean Janoris Jenkins the CB.
Yeah i was trying to reply to an earlier post abour Randle but for some reason it moved me all the way down here. Jenkins was a beast at florida before the off field issues got to him but do we really need another CB. Rogers Brown Culliver Brock Cox. JJ would be borderline 3-4 CB
Replace Delanie Walker? I really freaking hope not. He is the most versatile player on our team. Harbaugh loves having 3 tight ends, and even has plays designed around that concept. Why would we cut him and not have 3 brilliant tight ends?
Because he had a handful of catches last year and there’s an overlap on players who can do what he does. Miller fills in some of the spots, Fleener, if acquired, fills in others and Bynam, if he’s healthy will do the rest. It might be good to have one guy who does it all, but it they are upgrading the pass catcher part of the TE position and getting Fleener, the Walker is expendable.
OK, Grant! You’re scaring me.
This is exactly what I did as the 49er defacto GM with the collaborative mock at a local 49ers website. I chose Fleener @ #30. Traded our 2nd + 2013 4th to Detroit and took Silatolu at #55. We’re still picking in the second with third and fourth rounds to come. I have targeted some nice WRs in the third. I, too, would love to snag M. Jones, but don’t think he will be there. Promise, I’ll do you proud. lol
I would LOVE to have Fleener, but I have doubts that he’ll be there at 30 and I wonder if we would trade up to grab him. After missing out on former players last year, I would hope that Harbaugh would make a strong push to grab his former TE.
I could see giving up our fourth and out fifth to move up in the second round or even the third round, but I see us possibly selecting someone like Ryan Broyles in the 2nd or 3rd round to give us a different type of receiver on our roster. Imagine the possibility of having Ryan Broyles even maybe on the PUP list if his ACL hasn’t healed fully, and giving Har-oman another type of receiving option to throw to.
Grant thanks for sharing your insight. I hope you are wrong and we do not give 4 picks to move up!!! I would rather move down and stock pile draft picks or just draft the best player avaiable in each round. We will find out in April!!! Go Niners
If this were any of the previous years of recent, I would agree that stockpiling draft picks would be the most prudent thing to do. Fortunately we are not hurting as much as we were for quality players (as we were not too long ago).
The problem with having as many good players as they do, is what proven player do you cut for a player that has shown great potential when nothing counts. Remember the smack that was spoken by Dixon (if it wasn’t Dixon it was for sure Coffee [but I believe it was Dixon]) when he was tearing up the preseason? He was making statements about how he couldn’t believe it would be so easy to make yardage at the pro level. Well guess what, once the Regular Season started, he found out just how difficult it was to play with the big boys.
I would rather them draft 2 players that have an 80% chance of playing in the pros than a few that are only gonna muddy the waters when decision time come, only to cost a player with REAL heart to get cut i.e. Chilo Rachal wasting a roster spot.
Regardless of how it all goes, I have not been more confident in the 9ers ability to dominate the NFL since prior to Salary Cap implementation.
JY it’s never too early to extend JH’s contract. Pay him like Miami was willing to.
@Chicago
I am in agreement with you on much of your post, but maybe I’m more greedy than you. I’m of the opinion that Draftees 1 thru 4 are possible players, even starters this year. I’d like to see us ‘bundle’ 5 thru 7 for one ‘quality’ pick or swaps for next year. Indy would be a prime trade-partner…they need bodies. With 5 new faces on the PS or 53, I think we would be set for players and development(projects). also, we can find spaces…Chilo isn’t our only problem child…
Long term success comes from drafting for the future. The Steelers are a good blueprint for how to maintain a good team over the long term. Most of the players they draft aren’t expected to start straight away, its about looking 1 – 2 years down the track at what positions will need to be replaced.
For example, we don’t need help on defense this year, but Justin Smith isn’t getting any younger and Dashon Goldson is on a 1 year contract atm. Parys Haralson’s contract must be coming up soon, so we’ll need depth at OLB, and Larry Grant will be on a 1 year contract also.
We won’t be able to draft guys for all these positions, but if we trade away all our later round picks we won’t have anyone ready to take over these spots when we need them to.
The NIners third safety last year was Reggie Smith, and he earned $750K. Spillman will earn $1+ million in ’12. That’s third-safety money.
And Parys Haralson will be a better OLB in ’12 than any 4th round pick, most likely.
I agree Grant – Spillman will be the 3rd safety this year and Parys Haralson will be a far better 3rd OLB this year than any draft pick not taken in the 1st round. But we need more than 3 safety’s and 3 OLB’s (we got lucky last year that none of our OLB’s got hurt). And I don’t see Spillman as a starting calibre FS if Goldson leaves next year.
I’d rather have a guy around this year to learn the defense and can potentially step in next year than be in a position where we either have to bring in a FA, overpay for Goldson or draft a safety early.
The 49ers front office do a great job with contracts but the more successful the team is the harder it will be to keep all of our starters each year. That’s where good drafting and drafting for the future becomes very important. Draft before it becomes a need.
Colin Jones is the fourth safety, technically. Is it that important to upgrade his spot now? If you did so in the draft, would you cut Jones? Or Anthony Dixon? Or Brandon Jacobs?
Same thing with the fourth outside linebacker. Would you rather have an OLB who probably never played in ’12 than Kyle Williams? Williams is a good slot receiver, and the Niners need as many good receivers as possible.
Colin Jones isn’t on the roster to play safety, he’s special teams all the way. He won’t be the long term answer at safety. So yes, if they can draft a guy that has the potential to be the future starter at safety in the middle rounds, I think that is very good value. We had room for Reggie Smith AND Madieu Williams last year, it would essentially be replacing both of them with 1 player. Actually a subtraction at the position from last year.
As for OLB, same principle holds. He may not play much in ’12 (probably exclusively special teams), but if he can take over from Parys Haralson next year for a fraction of the salary, that’s a great outcome. So again yes, its worth it.
As for losing Kyle Williams (or insert any other player’s name) because the 49ers draft an OLB, if Williams is one of our top 5 WR’s he won’t get cut. If he’s not, then he will be in the same position as the drafted OLB – won’t be playing unless there is an injury. What’s the overall loss?
It’s not an overall loss – it’s just not as big of an overall gain as securing two studs in this particular draft. Finding a future starter at safety seems nice but beside the point right now for a Super Bowl contender trying to push itself over the top.
Relying on any rookie to put us over the top this year, regardless of if they are selected in the 1st round or later, is pretty risky. I can definitely see our 1st rounder, whoever it is, contributing, but they may not even be a starter. We’ve got a pretty loaded deck. So you’re talking more about the future anyway, not about pushing us over the top this year.
Chicago, agree. Let’s trade our picks for 1st or 2nd next year.
Who’s your back up if Fleener is gone?
If they trade up in the second, they will trade some picks from this year and some from next. No way they give up 4 picks in one draft. I could see swapping twos, giving a two next year with their 3rd and 5th picks this year. That is of course if they see this guy as a must have right guard, I’m not sure a Mike Iupati type player makes it to the second round.
Hey, way to spend some time on that, Grant!
This stuff gets complicated.
Nice job :)
the numbers dont add up to move up 20 spots in the 2nd rd you would have to trade next yrs 3rd rd and this yrs 4th and 5th i still think it would be a good move
I think a more likely second round trade value would be to swap #2′s and to give them next year’s #3.
i also could see them moving up in the 1st if they need to to get fleener and staying where they’re at in the 2nd rd
when trading up in the draft it matters alot how far you move up in a rd. moving up 5 spots in the 2nd cost you a 4th moving up 20 spots cost you a 3rd 5th and 6th
i really liked hill before the combine when i thought you might be able to steal him in the early 3rd rd but now in the 1st rd he reeks of an al davis speed is everything reach
Not a bad plan Grant…but I would bet rather than give up that many picks this year…we give up some picks next year as well to move up for Amini Silatolu.
As I’ve said many times, would love to have Fleener, even over the intriguing Hill – if by some miracle no GM falls in love with Hill’s Combine performance and he’s still available at 30. Would imagine the backup plan if neither’s available is BPA or best RG available. But like many here, I simply can’t see Baalke giving up that many picks per Grant’s 2nd rd trade scenario — he finds too much gold in the draft to do that. Especially with JH still so close to the college game, I should think this year and next, in particular, they’d want to lean on his direct experience or trusted network to get the best intel on these guys.
Besides, even with the Jacobs signing, I wouldn’t flinch to see them take a late-round big back if they see one they like. Pretty much the only position it would shock me to see them draft would be QB (sorry Alex haters). ILB, too. I’d imagine they’ll particularly be on the lookout for OL depth, S, CB and a young burner WR to groom. But they’ve got enough strength to go BPA most of the time.
Good topic, though, Grant. Nice job as usual getting everyone talking.
I love it too, but instead of so many picks, maybe you could throw in Delanie Walker as part of the trade in order to get some value for him before having to resign him.
Otherwise, they should extend him now while he’s cheap because he had a horrible pass receiving year, with less than 200 total yards!
I like Silatolu, but I’d be nervous giving up so many draft picks for a guy that played Div II… on the other hand, Jahri Evans was a Div II guy and he turned out alright!
I expect we will end up with less than our 7 selections, but more likely it will be 5 or 6 rather than 3. Other positions I think we will draft are DL, LB and Safety. Need some more depth and competition in these positions
larry allen was div II [go cossacks]
Scooter, Larry Allen was also a D2 guy. Go Sonoma St!!!
Yeah, there’s definitely been some excellent players come out of Div II, no question. But there is also definitely an extra element of risk involved when drafting these players, so I don’t know if exchanging a host of later round picks for a Div II guy is the best option
like JTO (snicker), ken o’brian….go aggies
you know the funny thing is because of how late the 9ers pick and our total lack of real knowledge you can eliminate every name that has been mentioned on this blog when it comes time to pick.
geez jack get out of my head
LOL!
Pancakes or waffles?
Waffles. As long as they’re not soggy.
@Grant
Just out of curiosity, can you do me a solid and explain how you can honestly say that you are NOT a “fan?”
–
BTW, Lowell stated the same position, and when challenged on it, used the fallback of journalistic integrity without actually saying anything…
I don’t root for anyone but UCLA and the Cohn Zohn.
and page hits
Meeting Steve Young
Posted on August 20, 2011 by Grant Cohn
“… A few days before that game I made my own Steve Young jersey using a white t-shirt and felt pens. I was a big fan.”
You rooted for Steve Young. Steve Young was a Niner; ergo, you rooted for the Niners.
Nothing to be ashamed of Grant. Just sayin’…
If Baalke makes that trade it involves a pick in next years draft (Like a 2nd rounder) So you are giving 2 second rounder for the price of one. There is NO WAY, and I will bet anything you want on it Grant, Baalke trades away +4 draft picks for one player.
I can’t see them trading next years picks. That’s a sure fire way to start a downward spiral.
Marvin Jones farrrr from ideal. We are desperate for a big body receiver. Streeter or Quick is the best pick!
Jones is 6’3 205. I don’t think he’s that….small.
Grant,
I like it. I especially like the Fleener pick, of course, but Kilgore to center in a couple of seasons also makes a lot of sense.
Grant, Why are you going Silatolu over Zeitler?
I think Silatolu’s the superior prospect. His knock is that he played at a small school and didn’t play top competition. But Baalke doesn’t hesitate to draft small school lineman who tear up the combine, as Silatolu did. If Silatolu turns out to be too expensive and they can get Zeitler by trading up just five to ten spots in the second round, that’s something to consider.
Moving up 10 spots would cost them their 2nd round pick -it better be worth the trade up!
Strike that…
*I was thinking the cost to move up 10 spots in the 1st round*
Grant
I just don’t see Fleener being available when we pick… Someone is gonna snatch him
i posted my thoughts about the draft on the brandon jacobs thread….at the 11:30am mark about 2 1/2 hours before this thread…appears grant sorta of massaged my ideas with his guard talk……
i am not really sold on fleener with his chronic ankle since a lot of blocking leverage is required from the NFL TE… i see this as a potential impediment to keeping him on the field and getting a quick ROI in the immediate future…which is the only reason to be taking fleener because he is familiar with JH system
the whole giving up a lot of picks for a guard like silatolu who i project as a 3rd round choice (even though u suggest he is projected in the 45-55 range) just doesn’t seem warranted to me….
if corby glenn got within sniffing distance of the niners pick at #30 then i could see this kind of strategy implemented (giving up lots of later round picks) and actually get a bonifide top rank guard…this makes more sense to me….
one aspect i do kind of agree with is that the 4 thru 7 picks may not even sniff making the niner roster or practice squad and even so niners can always pick up other teams rejects 5th thru 7th round rejects after preseason to fill the roster if need be….so in light of this niners can use these later round picks to help supplement catalysts that target specific impact needs/wants of the niners…..this is what i was referring to when i espoused the niners use FA to control the draft….
the following is what i had posted in the previous thread 5 hours ago….
getting ready for trip south….
as i suspected and implied the niners have followed a script i espoused…address and accomplish the FA tasks so that the draft becomes a tool they can control…they followed their script very well providing a bit of leverage in the WR arena with the randy ‘don’t seven step drop me’ moss and super bowl manningham signings, providing a good healthy backup in brandon ‘motivate me’ jacobs for an injury prone gore with a less beat up option, as well as keeping that top 5 defense intact and providing something more than lip service to special teams by bringing back ginn and signing cox, cartwright etc….and yes they brought back AS for a second year in the system which i am in total agreement on….even though it was peyton i was not very enamored with the idea of bringing him on….way too many questions…kind of like the devil i know (AS and JH system) vs the devil i don’t (peyton’s neck and peyton’s system)
going forward into the draft (barring any real significant signings in FA) niners still need to address the RG situation, the impending loss of TE/WR walker, a backup plan if the moss experiment staggers and even if it doesn’t going forward into the future training a new WR…need to address the near future (2 yrs) replacement of justin smith ….. and possibly an opposite side complement to aldon smith QB rushing DE
the niners can control this draft with respect to themselves because they can trade up or down packaging picks to target their needs with best player available this year and next year…so with this in mind i have the following inputs
rd 1 targets….G decastro even considering recent chatter it seems quite a stretch to obtain unless this will be essentially a one man draft by giving this draft away
….G corby glenn if he falls close enough to #30 for the niner to package a lower pick or two
….WR hill….if he falls to them
….TE fleener … if he falls to them or same scenario as corby if corby is gone
if none of these are available i would tend to move down for picks or maybe trade it for a first round pick next year (stretch)
rd2….CB johnson of montana because i still see the secondary as a softness in this defense
….WR streeter if WR or TE is not taken in the 1st round
rd3….if OG not taken in first two rounds may look for one in 3rd round like a silatolu (sp)
….or if need to address the center of the defense my look at a ta’amu as a DT
rd4….if RB has not been addressed if turbin is still there may choose to give up the rest of their draft picks this year to move up to get him
….CB minnifield may still be there as well since he has a pedigree may be worth a look depending on his special teams skills if he has any….
after this i can’t even guess (yes the above are guesses) but if still have these picks left would probably focus on WR, position-flexible OL men, CB but as suggested these picks are very long shots especially after the FA signings the niners have pulled off to date..
@jg
This OL better be near the best ever if the Nienrs spend another 1st round pick on the OL. That would make Staley, Iupati, (new guy), Davis all 1st round picks.
They need to start earning their dividends on this stuff and immediately.
agreed better be all world OL….and add to that VD…..and if pick up a fleener than again have a 1st rounder on the Ol……
so being a power offense i would at this moment in time would lean towards getting a 1st round guard (unless the team really thinks a leonard davis pickup is immenent and equivalent to a corby)…plus 30 pick is almost like a 2nd rounder just like last years CK 2nd round pick is almost a first rounder….
am shooting for a 90′s-like cowboy line….because after all the trenches need to be controlled for other aspects of the team to work
@jg
No more leaving VD in to block. After the playoff games, it is clear that the Niners weapons are so much better with him going out rather than staying in to block.
Anthony Davis needs to stand on his own two feet now. No more 2nd blocker to help him out. He was a top 15 guy. He is now in year 3. Show up now.
@DS
Right, there is value later in the draft. You have to take into account the maturity factor for our young offensive linemen. They will dominate this season.
I totaly agree that the 4th, 5th – 7 wont make the team. It seems to me that we package a deal to move up or for other picks next year. There are teams out there that are in the position we use to be in need lots of players in camp to put a squad togeather.
@undercenter
Well then the Niners will have an extra million plus to go after Wallace then. Don’t know if it matters much though if he wants LF type money.
@ ds I think you can kiss Wallace goodby, LF money is way to much. I liked Wallace till I heard he wanted LF money I am not sure if LF deserves that kind of money.
It is likely undercenter that the Niners don’t get Wallace.
@JGWindsor
Good post! I especially like your round 2, and round 3
I think Fleener would be a great 1st round pick I just think they’ll have to trade up to get him. He looks more solid than some of the 1st round wide receivers and with his speed whats stopping a team from drafting him as a wide receiver?
I think Fleener will be gone before the Niners pick. I think they’ll trade down and pick up a OG and WR later.
If Decastro is available at #17 the 49ers trade #2 this year and next years second round as well to move up and draft him. If DeCastro is off the board then they might jump up into the mid 20′s to grab Cordy Glenn. Until I see them sign a free agent that can start at RG I’m assuming that we’re targeting that with our first pick.
If they whiff on both look for them to grab Zeitler #30 or if both of the previous mentioned guards go before the 20′s look for Baalke to move up to get him.
I can’t imagine the Niners would invest a fourth first round pick on an offensive lineman – a right guard at that.
I truly don’t think Baalke is sitting there going “Well, we really need a starting Right Guard but I’ve taken 3 lineman in the first round so far so I clearly cant take another.”
They have a serious need for a right guard and as much as I hate to draft for need this years class has at least 3 players that potentially deserve a first round grade and at least one that is a no brainer starter.
If there is a right guard that Baalke believes can come in and start I have no reason to believe he wont pull the trigger on them.
I think it’s a stretch to put “serious need” and “right guard” in the same sentence. They have a serious need for more firepower on offense – that’s where Fleener comes in. They would like someone to compete with Kilgore for the right guard job in ’12.
We’re a run first team that doesn’t have a starting Right Guard, what level of need would you classify that as?
It’s a balanced offense, not run-first. I do not think the Niners should not break the bank for a right guard, i.e. trade up for one in the first round. They need another play maker in the pass game.
You want to argue that given his druthers Harbaugh wouldn’t rather just stuff the ball down peoples throats rather then chance the ball in Alex’s hands? They ultimately ended up being closer to a balanced offense but that isn’t by design. Our run game was inconsistent at best last year and shuffling the blocker in one of your main running lanes isn’t gonna help.
If the guards fly off the board early in the first round I see Baalke making a move. If the market for them doesn’t seem to be hot then I could see him trying to move up in the 2nd for one but I still think you aren’t giving enough credit to the position in our offense.
Harbaugh’s offense is balanced – check what he did at Stanford and San Diego. Smith is his QB and Gore is his RB so it seems run first, but really the QB just limits the potential of the offense. That’s why they drafted the strong armed Kaepernick – to take advantage of the whole field eventually. Harbaugh ideally wants to attack the whole field, not just the line of scrimmage.
i am on faithful side of this argument…bring on cordy…..need is need and bpa sorta match up here….i have given my 2cents on why i am not really into fleener….
@faithful
The arguemnt for or against ends when the Niners had CR in for Adam Snyder about the importance of a RG on this offense.
Offensive philosophies aside having already used 3 first round picks for an offensive line man is not a legitimate reason to not use a fourth. Right Guards do get drafted in the first round. The bullets aren’t the problem on offense, it’s the gun firing them which in my mind makes using a high round pick on a player type that we already have (Fleener/V.Davis) a waste when we have a stronger need in a more vital position.
Trading up for Cordy Glenn in the first round would be a big mistake in my humble opinion. As long as the Niners are trying to win the Super Bowl in 2012 with Alex Smith, give him as many good weapons as possible.
Kilgore could easily pick up where Snyder left off. I believe that. Snyder was one of the worst starting guards in the NFL. Rachal shouldn’t be in the NFL. Silatolu could be a big upgrade over Kilgore, who’s future is at center. No need to get one of the top two guards in the draft – the third and fourth best guys are good, too. Zeitler is also a trade up option in the second, although I prefer Silatolu.
I wonder, does Baalke have the same feeling about guards as McCloughan did? That being – easily replaceable. I know he drafted Iupati but I had the feeling that Sing was a major driver in that draft.
Good question msc.
We have an n=2 on Trent Baalke. And, I also assume that MS had more power over personnel than JH does.
Harbaugh’s offense at Stanford was also much more vertical than what we saw with the 49ers last year because they had the weopons and a QB who could break the defense down.
Stanford routinely uses all 3 of their TE’s on intermediate to deep routes. Adding Fleener to Davis and Walker gives them the same type of options.
“That’s why they drafted the strong armed Kaepernick”
Grant, neither JMo or SY had strong arms. In the WCO it is talent and timing. Now with talent, let’s see what AS can do. Not so sure CK is that great but TBD.
It would become like Matt Millen takiing wide outs every year with less than stellar results.
adding moss and manningham has provided the QB those extra weapons to go along with walker and VD as well as pass catching gore/hunter/jacobs…..
so in my estimation need to make sure there is a nice protective pocket formed to give plays time to develop as well as road grading type guards…..fleener doesn’t provide that ….cordy would…..
so now need to really breakdown the measurables, big game experience, the college competition, and project the desired immediate ROI between a cordy, zeitler, silatolu, and might as well throw in decasto as the species of excellence to be graded against
@jg
We don’t know much of anything about RM or Manningham.
RM last year was not playing at all. Manningham had the benefit of having two very good WR’s pull coverages away from him, leaving holes in NY that likely won’t be there as a Niner WR. He needs to perform very well for us with less than he had in NY. Doesn’t mean he can’t. Just won’t be as easy for him as he is used to.
It isn’t too hard to imagine both players as a dud. That is why the Niners didn’t give them any long term contracts, or very much guaranteed money as well Grant.
I hope that both have great seasons and will cheer for them to have one. But none are a sure bet to draw the constant double teams away from VD play after play either.
If DeCastro is there at 30, sure, I can see Baalke drafting him. Maybe even Cordy Glenn or Kevin Zeitler – but only if he genuinely has them rated higher than anyone else available. Which I think is unlikely given the value Baalke appears to place on interior linemen.
His philosophy appears to be that functional guards can be picked up cheaply in FA and in the later rounds in the draft. Iupati was obviously an exception to this rule, and I wonder how much Singletary influenced that decision.
@Jack
How can you say that? I bet Andrew had more time to throw and a better running attack to help than AS had for much of the season. When AS had good time and running game, he looked good. When he didn’t, he didn’t look as good (no shock). But AS never lost a game either with a stupid TO on the kind of pass many here wanted him to do because he didn’t throw it.
You can run all the deep routes you want. If the OL craps out after 2 seconds, it won’t do you a bit of good.
@DS, My comment had nothing to do with Alex Smith. You are pretty good at blaming everyone but him for the offensive shortcomings in 2011 aren’t you.
Alex had a pretty good year, but just like everyone else there are things he could have done better. It doesn’t seem as though you believe that.
Look at your previous post. Did you or did you not bring up AS?
And you didn’t read my post at all Jack. If you ever had a job, you know that reps/experience pretty much takes care of nearly everything you need to improve on doing your job. Bad things that happen when you don’t have the experience tend to go away after you get experience. And things go smoother as you get experience. The same thing applies to QB play. Any QB.
I talked about his footwork and how he needs to work on muscle memory. Those are things that he has to work on.
I’m not sorry if I don’t bash the snot out of a guy who lead the team to 13-3 when every expert had them winning no more than 6 games, if that. 6 comeback wins, 4 of them on the road. 6TD’s/0 Int in the playoffs. Only 1 QB had better playoff stats than that.
I’m not sorry if I prefer looking at the positive from this guy more than looking for the negative when he did these things. Besides it his AS job to find what he needs to do better, not mine. As long as he isn’t a jerk(he isn’t) and shows me the heart I need to see from any player (he has), it is my job to cheer for him along with anybody else in our uniform.
@DS, I did not bring up Alex Smith.
@Jack
Sorry. I responded to the wrong thread. When I said “You brought up AS” I meant your post on March 29, 2012 at 8:57 pm.
Sorry for any confusion.
These are exactly the first three picks I was predicting. Of course, I’m never right. Nice try though, Grant.
One thing for sure this is going to be one interesting draft. If the draft goes as others with Baalke then I am expecting the unexpected. I already can hear the cheers and boos with our first round pick.
@undercenter
Actually, if it follows last years mold, it would the utter lack of boos and cheers over our 1st round pick that would stand out.
Niner fans were stunned and didn’t know what to think. Or at least the ones they showed on ESPN were.
very true
@Grant
Do you find it interesting that a guard “who’s drawn comparisons to Mike Iupati” is expected to be available at pick 45 while the Niners drafted Iupati at 17th in 2010?
Also, is Fleener a better redzone target than Vernon or Delanie? They are both quality TE’s, but neither of them is a real jump ball/fade type guy. With Moss and Fleener, they will have two natural catchers who can run that jump/fade route. Should open the middle in redzone packages.
Just because Silatolu has an early second round grade instead of a mid-first round grade doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be a good right guard for the Niners.
can’t argue against fleener being an effective redzone/3rd down weapon….
not sayin silatuolu isn’t a worthwhile choice….just saying giving up all those picks to move up in the second just doesn’t seem appropriate……
this scenario comes down to the niners doing their homework on what the needs of the teams are between the 30th pick and 61 pick…..
that is another of the true tests of a GM….knowing the enemy
I would love Coby Fleener. Given all the additions at the many positions that we’ve gotten during this free agency period, I think we are greatly set up for BPA when our turn comes with each pick.
And I also understand that we are pretty deep at many position and we will have a hard time adding 7 more players to our roster, eventually some of those would end up in the PS, and others would be cut. So I can see making a trade where we end up with maybe only 5 picks or so.
But to trade away so many picks for a guard (as important as that position is), what if this Silatolu guy ends up being another Chilo Rachal? I mean we got Rachal in the 2nd Round thinking he’d be a guard for a long time.
My point is that the draft is a crap shoot. There are no guarantees at any point in the draft and to give away 4 or 5 picks for the chance of getting 1 who is not, you know, Andrew Luck or a blue chip player like that, I just don’t see our FO doing something like that. I can see them doing it for a true blue chip player, maybe moving up 10 spots for Fleener in the 1st Round, or if they really want for example DeCastro or one of the multiple DE’s available, but for a guard who is already viewed as a 2nd ROunder? Doesn’t make much sense.
Sorry everyone for all the spelling mistakes here.
I think my keyboard is dying here. I keep hitting keys to type/spell properly, but it is not responding well.
FYI I had to correct about 13 times here on this post alone.
Great thinking grant. But i seriously doubt fleener will be available at 30. No way 29 teams pass on the next gronk or jimmy g. Hell even the next vernon. I think we trade up or trade out of the 1st round completely. Because honestly we have young talent almost everywhere, why not get the iupati standout in the round u can get him in then draft for depth and competition. Wich equals the best player available every round.We need a guard but why waste that many picks UNLESS its the guy we WANT AND NEED! Then i would agree %100
I think 29 teams pass on Fleener because they convince themselves he’s really just the next Greg Olsen (almost identical combine stats), and the Niners draft him because they know better.
But if it came down to trading up 5 spots for Fleener or trading back for Silatolu, I’d support trading up.
Makes lots of sense. Baalke and Harbaugh are very tough to read. Their guy in the first or second may be under the radar.
For most teams, taking Coby Fleener in the 1st would be a luxury pick, and there aren’t many teams that can afford to spend their 1st on a luxury pick in my opinion. Most teams will be addressing needs.
49ers are in a position to take a player such as Fleener because they’ve already addressed all of their glaring needs. I really like Fleener for the 49ers, I think he would really add a different dimension to the passing attack and would make Vernon all the more dangerous (it’s hard enough marking one super athletic TE, who do you use to mark 2?). Also, with that combo of height, leaping ability, hands and speed, you’d think he’d be a real upgrade on 3rd down and in the red zone.
Good point grant. Didnt know he compared to G olsen
@Grant, I know this is off topic, but did you happen to see this interview between Harbaugh and a Boston writer about Randy Moss.
http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/rap_sheet/index.php/2012/03/28/49ers-coach-jim-harbaugh-i’d-like-to-see-randy-moss-put-a-stamp-on-his-great-nfl-career/
It should at least make the local guys know that he approaches everybody the same. It is classic Harbaugh.
Harbaugh objects to words. RESEARCH?!
Like he said, he’s a “complicated” guy.
I love OG/OT Amini Silatolu on Round 2, but the convoluted process by which Cohn gets 49ers to pick #47 is less tha credible.
This is much more likely: 49ers trade first round pick, #30, for a first rounder next year, plus a mid-second round pick this year, #42 to #50. (That is substantially similar to trade 49ers made [?with Indy?] to get Joe Staley with a late first rounder, except 49ers gave up a fairly early second rounder.)
Then 49ers take Silatolu with the second round pick, & have 2 first rounders next year.
This…better than “that”
With our roster being so strong and the team in a good place to compete for a superbowl already I think we should start trading down and stocking up on picks. Get this train with plenty of fuel to carry this dynasty the next ten years.
Hof….. Talent around him doesnt make him bounce balls or overthrow recievers. Alot of ppl keep saying Smith had no weapons n dropped balls, but im willing to bet those over n underthrows outnumber the dropped balls. What Smith has now is the full offseason under harvaugh. Nothing to do with weapons. All of u kept asking for a full offseason. Well u got ur wish. But lets not forget Kap will also have that same offseason. Alex is superior in 1 categorie, turnovers. I think harbagh n balkees pursuit of other qbs mean thats not gonna be enough. Smith has to step up n be a man. Coach cant hold his hand forever. Its about winning. And lets also not forget, Alex played his carear best last year but pur D n special teams got us those 13 wins.
Steel, I’m not disagreeing. But if you watch on youtube JH QB clinic, you’ll see why AS was so careful last year. I think this year with the offseason OTAs, TC, knowing the offense, having more talent on offense, we’ll see continued improvement. CK may never see the starting role if AS continues to elevate including playoff wins.
@steel
1. No defense looks as good as ours if the QB turns the ball over.
2. WR’s not running the right routes or distance will impact the balls over their heads or at their feet.
3. AS had among the most drops per attempt. You didn’t bring this fact to light.
4. Are you really saying a QB should miss on fewer passes than WR’s drop? That is a joke right? JM never had WR’s drop the ball for years. Yet he didn’t complete every pass. He actually missed some throws. Ask the guy yourself. He freely admits it.
5. LF has had worse QB’s the last 2 years than AS. Not even close. But LF still gets his despite always getting 2-teamed. Which Niner WR is similar to LF and make AS look better than he really is? Thought so.
6. AS had a lot of throw away passes last year. Had he been given DB type time in that wildcard game, AS is a lot more on target than he was this year. Which was still decent.
@DS, “AS had among the most drops per attempt.”
Where did you find that stat?
@jack
Others have posted the stat. I’m just recalling it from memory.
But, you don’t even need to know the actual stat Jack. Just reason it out. How many passes did the Niners (AS) attempt in an average game? How many did many other teams attempt in comparison? All the more reason why the haters attempt to use Passing rank (based on yards) as a measuring stick for AS is really folly. Obviously if a team has more attempts, it raises the odds of getting more yards (and more TO’s as well).
Then, try to recall how many drops the Niners had each game. I bet 2-4 drops is about right. How many drops did you see other teams make and how many pass attempts did they have? Also, pay attention to how many “great” catches a Niner WR had next to how many great catches did you see other WR’s make on other teams.
Look at the Niners-Saint game. How many passes did DB attempt? How many drops did the WR’s have?
How many passes did AS attempt? How many drops did the WR’s have?
Quickly do the math in your head, and the Niners have one of the most pass dropping WR (I really mean any receiver) in the NFL. That is not at all on AS. That is on them. Something to consider when evaluating AS next to other WR’s.
DS, Take your word for it. Now that you have thrown the rest of the offense under the bus to protect Alex, what 3 things do you think Alex Smith needs to improve on in 2012?
You don’t really read any of my posts do you Jack?
One of my first posts I had here was that the QB is the most dependent position in pro sports. He may direct things and get paid the most and have the hardest job, but he is most dependent on everybody else than other positions.
He needs the OL to block. He needs to read the defense the same as the WR, and adjust accordingly. He needs to throw the ball thru/over the DL past all the other defenders between himself and his target receiver and get him a decent to catch ball.
And if he does all that perfectly, and the WR drops it, it has the same impact as the QB throwing the ball 50 yards away from the nearest WR.
Good to know that you think the QB is the only player who is responsible for advancing the offense. Might as well get 10 scrubs off the street then to play with a great one then. After all, if the WR and OL mean nothing and the QB isn’t dependent on them, then no need to pay for them.
Find me a QB who has even joked about that (him being the reason why they are this good) and I’ll show you a fool. JM opens up every conversation talking about how lucky he was. And he was. You can find a loudmouth WR/RB/TE/OL before you find a loudmouth QB. There is a reason for it. And it isn’t this BS about him being a good leader. That mold would have been broken many times by now. It is because it is true. The QB knows it. If not, then elite QB’s would leave their teams all the time. They don’t.
P.S. Throwing a ball is harder than catching a ball. That is true of toddlers. It is true of adults. It is just a fact.
@Jack
“…what 3 things do you think Alex Smith needs to improve on in 2012?”
1. Reps with his playmakers
2. Reps with his playmakers
3. Reps with his playmakers.
Joe Montana said at the start of the season that it takes time and reps to really get this (or any) system down. Add to this the fact that AS says he needs to feel comfortable to really start to shine, and the only thing that solves that is time; which is constant and continuous (or so some think, I don’t, but per our discussion here, it is), so we can’t change that much.
The only thing that AS can do is get the reps in. With the reps comes the better footwork which he still can improve some though last year I think he got a lot better. With the reps comes the muscle memory of knowing who is where at any given second, even if you can’t see them. I saw a lot of plays where Eli Manning made this playoffs and the announcer said something to the extent of “That was incredible. He didn’t see that guy!” Well, that only happens because your muscles know where to throw it. Your mind and eyes aren’t computing it. You just know how hard to throw it and where to throw it, so you do, and your guy makes a play.
Muscle memory is something of a made up term I have, to distinguish it from mental memory. Mental memory to me is when your brain has to send the signal to the muscle what to do. That takes a split-split second of time to do. As opposed to the muscle just performing the action. That extra time is often the difference between a sack and a complete pass for positive yards.
AS was drilled by JH not to make any stupid throws. Which means that he had to decide things with mental memory. Which is a good thing if you don’t know everything yet. You need to make sure to cut the red wire if the black wire is the one that goes boom. AS did a great job of not cutting the black wire this past season.
But every elite QB goes by muscle memory more than mental memory. But they can only do that by getting reps over a long period of time. It won’t be fair to judge AS with Eli Manning’s muscle memory. Eli has quite a few more years to get his down. But, AS will have to get better this year compared to last year in his muscle memory.
Of course if AS can’t even have time to set his feet or his playmakers drop the ball, it won’t amount to a hill of beans now will it?
DS, Quite an impressive diatribe. You got all of that from me asking what areas Smith can improve in?
BTW, “Throwing a ball is harder than catching a ball. That is true of toddlers. It is true of adults. It is just a fact.”. Uh, not really. All 3 of my boys were able to throw a ball long before they had the hand/eye coordination to catch one.
I think the NFL has spoken it’s mind on Plan B Smith. No one wanted to give him starter’s money. The Dolphins withdrew their offer and signed Garrard because, according to Ross, they didn’t want to pay $8 million to a guy they weren’t sure could beat out Matt Moore.
This isn’t TV personalities or old players or web bloggers. This is actual NFL coaches and GMs. Baalke left Smith dangling in free agency for any team that wanted him and no one did.
No one buys the Alexcuses except for the folks who keep repeating them.
That would be throwing on target Jack. Especially a moving target. The simple act of throwing, yes. But to throw accurately (which is what matters in this case), no.
If your 3 boys could throw the ball accurately on target consistently, especially a moving target at a toddlers age, I hope you had them evaluated for QB talent from the start. You could be a very rich Grandpa.
@Steel
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teamyear.php?year=2011&team=SF&season=reg
Look at the page under the “Receivers” section.
Vernon and Crabtree were the only receiving weapons they had. No other receivers had more than 20 receptions. And check VD’s 70% Catch Rate and Crab’s 63%, not bad percentages if you compare them to others’. So they were catching a fair amount of throws.
Also check other teams’ receivers. The good teams have more WRs
contributions.
I would be very disappointed if they did this. Its not a “hugely” bad plan…but it gives up too much when we need to pickup a WR in this mold before we take a Guard. It also fails to address our need to strengthen the secondary and replace Spencer. We need a WR and a G…would rather we use our 1st or 2nd for that (perhaps trade up for a WR) and look to fill the other with our 3rd…BPA…to a point when we have two glaring needs and cant sacrifice one for the other.
Grant, I like your predicted results for the draft. I hope the 49ers can make it happen. I’m afraid that once the draft gets to the 20s Fleener will be gone.
Hof.. Good point. If Smith does im prove it will mean we are superbowl bound and Kap will be traid bait. That said, personally i think Smith has hit his ceiling. He will never be better than last year. God I hope im wrong about that. Im pullin for him. But if he doesnt improve its time to move on.
No to Fleener.
DS :
Dont sweat the typos. My big fat fingers dont work very well on a regular keyboard much less on this Android virtual keyboard. I gave up long ago trying to be typo free,it was hopeless.Typo smypo, who cares, just keep posting your opinions !
@Tim
I usually don’t care about the typos a lot on a blog and let them slide. But my conversation with Grant, man I had a ton of them. It was just bad.
@DS
Don’t worry DS, doesn’t take away from your commentary. However, I still have nightmares of my 4th grade teacher bringing me up in front of the class for grammatical errors.
Ds… Are u seriously saying u knew for a fact they were running wrong routes or are u just having smiths back. I never said qbs shod miss targets but thats what he did. Do u think our recievers got upset when balls were over n underthrown because they ran wrong routes? And point me to the stat line where it said sufficiently smith had the most dropped balls. Even if the qb turns the ball over we still have great D… Montana missed some throws, right, but Smith misses alot of throws. But also tell me where i said i want my qb to miss throws.. Him missing throws is the problem. Not the throwaways he makes to gey rid of the ball but the ones he just plain misses
Rule number 1, don’t take anything that DS say’s seriously, rule number two, same thing as rule number 1.
Hey Neal, GO SHARKS!
Yeah, go Sharks. Go away, far, far away.
It is drops/pass attempt that matter steel.
And I don’t care at all if the WR’s got upset or not. They are paid stupid money to do what I did for free. So they better just shut the hell up and do their damn job. Everything has to work just fine for them to get the ball. And if they want to complain, I won’t hear it.
A great D is only a great D if they are given the opportunity to be great. Works that way for everything else in football. Don’t forget that. Our mistake-free offense and great ST ensured the D was not put in bad situations all year long, and they rewarded the team by being the best in memory. Possibly the best defense in NFL history. If the offense is turning the ball over deep in their end, and the ST suck, that defense is not that good. Not even close. We know because for the most part, they have been here for several years, and always found a way to blow it.
And throwaways are a problem when you have as many of them as the Niners have. If you pass on 2nd down and 7 and have to throw it away, then you have to pass on 3rd down and it is hard to convert 3rd and 7 no matter who you are (unless you are the Saints, then they played us and found out, oh yeah, that is a defense, can’t do that). The CB’s can sit those routes and not bite resulting in a WR who is not open and a blitz to pressure the QB. I don’t care who you are, that isn’t going to work.
@Neal
Stay out. Funny how you said you were going to not post much, and from that moment on, have written a lot more posts than you had before.
…And “drops” are a matter of perspective. I saw a huge # of bad passes that were “dropped”.I saw a small # of good passes that were dropped. I saw more really bad passes that were caught than good passes that were actually dropped.The fact is that Alex needs to get accurate and needs to get rid of the ball on time and I believe he will get better in those areas, even if he had the same receivers again.He will be in his 2nd year in the system and will have a full off season and mini-camps and TC ! He will be better, and so will Kaep.But Alex has the experience and knows what to do and how to do it(in theory),now he just needs to have his body do what his mind knows to do. Can he do that is the question.
@Tim
That’s the question. I thought until last year that he didn’t have the pocket awareness to succeed. If he can learn to slide in the pocket he’d advance. But, I don’t know if that can be taught. Many times there was pressure right at the snap and he couldn’t avoid it. If the play wasn’t scripted, such as a roll-out , his reaction was a step slow. That being said he made tremendous progress last year.
The good teams had a better qb.
Delanie Walker is an awesome tight-end, I don’t think they want to lose him.
No way will they give up there whole draft for one player, they have depth needs at DL and secondary which they cannot let go unaddressed moving to the future
I disagree that they have depth needs at DL and the secondary they must address in this draft. What’s wrong with Tukuafu, RJF, Dobbs, Williams, Culliver, Brock, Cox, Holcomb, Nelms, Spillman and Jones? That seems like good enough depth for 2012.
Question is, do you see any out of Tukuafu, RJF, Dobbs or Williams becoming a starter? Or are they guys that will be career backups? Why wouldn’t a mid to late draft pick be a better prospect than these guys that were undrafted FA (with the exception of RJF who was a 7th rounder)?
Obviously impossible to tell at this stage if any of these guys will go on to become starters as they are all young, but I can definitely see a case for bringing in another guy in the draft if they think they offer more potential than what we have. Ditto with safety.
I don’t think they see any of them as starter-quality this season, no.
Is it important to draft a top-tier prospect starter quality five-tech in this draft? I don’t think so – he won’t play much unless there’s an injury to Justin Smith or Ray McDonald.
Is it important to draft a project five-tech who could develop and become starter-quality in a few seasons? I don’t think so – he probably won’t be as good this season as Tukuafu or RJF, so the team’s depth would get a little worse in the present.
Can’t fault your logic on that, but if they could keep 7 DL’s last year, of which only 4 really saw any action, I don’t see why drafting a DL project that won’t play this year but may have greater upside than any of Tukuafu, RJF, Dobbs or Williams would be such a bad thing.
Besides, are all those guys really going to contribute this year anyway? Are we going to have a 7 man DL rotation? I highly doubt it.
It wouldn’t be a bad thing. It would be a good thing. If the Niners can’t trade up and draft two players they feel are potential Pro Bowlers and first year contributors, they should get the best depth they can. But I feel the Niners are in a great spot to trade up if the right opportunity presents itself.
Yep, fair enough, that’s a good point. If the 49ers are going to mortgage a lot of picks from this years draft to move up, it should be to get a second “1st round” calibre prospect. For that though I’d rather it be for a guy they really like that has “fallen” out of the 1st round (e.g., if one of the 2nd tier WRs is available at 45-50, and by that I mean guys like Hill, Wright, Sanu, Randle) than a guy that is widely considered a 2nd round pick anyway.
If they could draft Fleener AND Randle, that would be huge. I wonder how the Niners grade Silatolua, though. It seems like some give him a borderline 1st round/2nd round grade. His only knock is that he played at a small school, and Baalke isn’t scared to draft a small school offensive lineman.
National Football Post actually ranks Silatolu as the superior prospect (6.9 rating compared to Randle’s 6.4).
Yeah, Randle seems to have a broad range of gradings. I’ve seen him rated a 4th rounder on some sites, and as a borderline 1st rounder on others. I think he’ll probably go early 2nd though.
Interesting about Silotolu having a higher grade. I too wonder how Baalke will grade him. I question how much stock he puts on the guard position.
Rainbow:
Unless it was for A . Luck.
Yo man, put down the crack pipe. No way the 49ers blow all of their picks on THREE players.
The great Bill Belichick (7 Super Bowls, Giants & Patriots) once said something to the effect of “why should I spend extra draft picks on unproven players?” The Patriots trade down and amass extra picks EVERY YEAR, and are perennial contenders. Sound familiar??? Bill Walsh, anybody???
Fleener won’t make it out of the top 20 picks, maybe not the top 15. If anything the 49ers will trade their late 1st and drop down a few slots to get their guard AND pick up draft picks.
If you’re so certain, who’s going to draft Fleener top-20? I don’t buy it.
Baalke’s traded up for Anthony Davis, Colin Kaepernick and Daniel Kilgore. What Bill Belichick has done has no bearing.
Hardly anybody thought the Niners would select Aldon Smith for the seventh pick last year. The same could potentially apply to Fleener this year too. I like Fleener, but I don’t see him falling to the Niners.
True that.Don’t see him going top twenty at all.
Belichik gets ripped here (NE) for those awful trade downs every year. and if u look at his draft history the past 6 years they have been complete bombs. he kept trading back in the 20s and acumulating picks for next year which he would trade for the year after that etc. and in the process missed out on players such as dez bryant and clay mathews to instead get “value ” picks darius butler (out of football) and johnathan wilhite (out of football) This strategy worked for BW not so much BB in the last 6-7 years just look at their s@itty d.
Now back to the team that matters
Draft BPA out of the needs/wants section G, WR, S since theyd most likely be depth players anyway take the best one awailable and dont reach
But DS, if the pass is thrown poorly and the receiver gets a hand on it and doesnt catch it , or the pass is thrown so late that the db has time to recover and is there waiting to knock the ball out of the hans of the receiver when he comes down with it from the high throw,etc, then that IS the qb”s fault.Like I said , imho the receivers helped Alex’s stats by catching bad passes more than they hurt him by dropping catchable balls. Alex just wasnt all that good and was not accurate,even in his best year.
Then what is the job of the WR then?
To make plays. The ball is there, do something. Jerry Rice didn’t get to be as good as he was by saying “Oh, well the ball required me to stretch out to get it and I just don’t feel like it.” He made every catch he could get his hands on. And, he helped his QB out a lot more by actually getting open providing a nice window to hit him.
It wasn’t just JM or SY either. It was Elvis Grbac, Steve Bono. Anybody who stepped in as a Niner QB had the same wide open WR. Didn’t matter who the QB is. That is because the job of the WR is to get open. Not for the QB to get him open.
Drops are kinda a matter of perspective. No doubt. Also no doubt that I saw a lot of them by Niners WR’s and barely any great catches by them to make up for the drops like I saw in almost every other game with every other team. Heck even DHB made some fantastic catches to help make up for his drops. No Niner WR made the catches this past year that DHB made. It sucks. But it is also true.
DS :
Alex doesnt need the Alexcuses,he just needs to play better and there wont be so many faults to bring up and talk about. The fact is that Alex is not JOE and Crabs is not JERRY. But I never saw Crabs or anyone else do as you say, not want to stretch out because the ball was a little off target. Come on now be fair.
I saw plenty of great catches of off target passes and I saw plenty of our receivers get creamed for going way up high to catch horrible passes and come down with exposed ribs etc. and with narry a complaint. Alex doesnt blame the receivers and the receivers had too much class and were team guys too much to call out Alex on his many,many missfires and non throws when he failed to see wide open receivers or was just too paniced to do anything at all except take a sack or throw the ball away.The receiving corps is upgraded,lets hope the qb has been upgraded also.
Good night fellow fans ! The Wife and I are off to Monterey early tomorrow to spend the day and celebrate her Birthday. Pebble Beach here we come !!!
Good night Tim
: – )
Grant,
Great point to the article. A lot of people are missing the point. That being since the niners have a great team and great depth, we simply can’t expect our 5th 6th and 7th rounders to even make the team. Even our fourth rounder might be a stretch unless he is a player we don’t have great depth already on our team like a rg or safety.
We need a rg very badly and we do need a red zone target.
Fleener may go to a team like the bears, and if he does, who do you see the niners picking at 30? I feel that our first 3 round picks will make the team but beyond that it’s a stretch and that is why we should trade up to keep our few quality draft picks not quantity.
I think the Bears will draft DE Whitney Mercilus. I’d be shocked if they drafted Fleener. If they did, a stud like Kendall Wright could fall to the Niners.
Very true they are desperate for DL help and pass rush. Thanks again for the great work and I support most all of your opinions, especially about Alex smith. He does have talent, but doesn’t possess great accuracy, which ISN’T a result of a different offensive coordinator each year. I like Alex and his ability to hit Vernon Davis as well as his mobility and this years lack of ints, as well as his clutch play in the saints game and a few others this last year, however he has missed open targets like delanie walker in the ravens game and again in the giants playoff game that would of made the difference in the game. We can win a super bowl with the improved weapons at wr for Alex as well as the improved OL but that still doesn’t mean Alex is a very good qb, just a good qb that doesn’t make many good or bad plays. That’s not bashing him, that is people like you and myself being realistic and unbiased.
Thanks for posting, Chris. I hope to read more of your takes soon.
Chris,
It’s a little meaningless for someone to call themselves unbiased. I mean, really, what else are you going to say about your own opinion?
“We need a rg very badly”
yes we do.
I don’t see the Bears drafting Fleener even though they need a tight end now that Martz is gone. The Bears’ coaches claim they are happy with their O-Line which leads me to believe:
1) Mike Tice is taking LSD
2) They’re lying and will grab the best OL available in the 1st
3) All of the above
That O-Line is horrific and their excuse for a right tackle (Frank “Olé” Omiyale) was cut. Martz enjoyed killing quarterbacks but I think the new offense will want to keep Cutler alive.
My guess is the Bears draft OL in the second round.
Stephen Gilmore, SCar
Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin Trade 4th, 5th and a 4th next year to move up 8
Marvin Jones, WR, California
Toney Clemons, WR, Colorado
Trevor Guyton, DT, Cal
My guess is the Packers or Bengals will grab Gilmore. If they don’t then he’d be a great pick.
…….a beast like larry allen at guard would be huge going
Forward….sorry new at this iPad thing.”…
I hope not!. I hope we get fleener, but trading up for a guard isnt that smart. We can get a number of guards and we have Kilgore. We need depth at safety, MLB and wr as well. Not to mention defensive line.
I agree with Grant. We are so used to the 49ers being terrible, with most (if not all) their picks making the team.
Not this year. I’m expecting 2-4 of the 7 picks will actually be signed this year. Trading up for better (fewer) picks makes sense.
But will Fleener or Hill be there at #30? If he’s not, the whole draft scenario breaks down.
If both are gone, pack the 2nd round. I think trading picks 4-7 to move up, and the #30 pick back. 4 picks in rounds 2-3 will get some real talent.
Yesterday on Sirius-XM’s NFL channel, Pat Kirwan described Fleener as “late 2nd round/early 3rd round” talent. While that seems like an extremely low rating, Mike Mayock also has said that he sees no TEs with first round talent in this draft.
I strongly want the 49ers not to reach for a player with their first round pick, and I worry that Fleener at 30 may be a reach.
Anyone care to talk me down?
I just hope the Niners address needs that they have with their picks Claude.
I don’t see it like you may. If Fleener solves the problem (or if the Niners brass thinks they do) the Niners have, then draft the guy. Even if it considered “reaching”. If the Niners can’t trade the pick away and draft down for more picks, and they don’t think he will be there when their second round pick comes along (or they can’t trade up in the 2nd round to get him) then by all means get the guy.
The point of the draft is to find guys who get you to be a better team. Not to satisfy the draft pundits or fans. If you really think a guy can solve a big problem you have and he won’t be there the next time you pick, how does that improve your team?
Case in point last year with Aldon Smith. The Niners supposedly reached for him. They couldn’t trade down the pick and be assure of getting him, so they just selected him right there. And it worked out fine.
“…then by all means get the guy.”
That goes for any player. Not just Fleener, just to make that clear.
@DS:
I am not a big fan of drafting to address short term needs (that’s what FA is for). I think that doing so is likely to produce a less-talented team in the medium and long term. Although it’s not the most compelling argument for using the Best Player Available (BPA) approach, this piece explains it pretty well: http://www.gbnreport.com/drafttheories.htm
The paragraph on team building vs. team fixing also is worth reading.
Anyway, it sure looks like the 49ers have used free agency to address immediate needs (RG may be the exception, but then again, they may believe that Kilgore/unknown-still-available-FA is ready to step in this year) and are free to draft the best player on the board, at least in the early rounds. And if only 4-5 draftees are likely to make the team, then Baalke may be able to package picks and move up to get someone he really likes.
As for Aldon Smith, I guess it depends upon how one defines a reach, but in my opinion, only the uninformed called it a reach to draft him at 7. Prior to (and maybe during) the draft, John McClain (Houston Texans beat writer) wrote that Houston wanted Smith at 11.
Claude,
It’s all in perception. One teams reach is another teams chosen one. I love listening to PK, but his ratings are routinely way off on many players. I respect Mayock a great deal and if he says there are no 1st round TE’s, then he’s probably right, but when you are picking at #30, I don’t think it’s a reach to take the best TE two picks away from the 2nd round. I will also point out that up until Fleeners pro day, Mayock had Orson Charles as his #1 TE. This leads me to believe that Mike may not of spent a whole lot of time looking at Fleener on film and is late to the party a bit.
My guess is that if the Niners want Fleener they’ll take him. Personally, I think he goes before our pick, but obviously I could be wrong on that.
I see no way Grants prediction comes to fruition because that’s too many picks to move up in the second, but I like the idea of trying to come back with a OG pick after taking BPA in the first.
Ideally, somebody will fall in love with a player and give us a 1st next year and their 2nd for our first this year, like what happened between the Pats and Saints last year.
@Claude
I don’t know what you mean by short term fixes. But if the Niners think Fleener is the perfect weapon our poor Red Zone offense needs, then by all means draft him.
We were so close to the Super Bowl last year Claude. If a quick fix solves the problem, we go to the Big game. And we’ll win it. That happens, then the quick fix is well worth it.
Rocket,
You beat me to that comment. I would love it if the 49ers traded the 30th pick for another team’s 2nd this year and next year’s 1st [or even their 2nd next year, if this year's second is high enough].
The above scenario is based on the assumption there isn’t a player left on the board with a first round grade when the 49ers pick comes up.
@DS:
I don’t know what you mean by short term fixes. But if the Niners think Fleener is the perfect weapon our poor Red Zone offense needs, then by all means draft him.
Even if there is a much better player (at a different, “less needful” position) available? I’d prefer that the team take the superior player over the lesser player who happens to fix a short term problem.
What needful position do you think the Niners have right now Claude?
WR. That is the one that stands out the most. But the Niners last 3 1st Round WR picks include:
JJ Stokes
Woods
Crabtree
Not an impressive list at all. Plus, 1st round WR’s just tend to flop a lot more than they succeed.
Other than WR, the Niners have no real need (maybe Guard, but we don’t need to spend another 1st round pick on an OL). And they picked up two WR’s in FA. None are world beaters. But I expect the Niners to spend 2 or more picks on WR in the middle/late round to find their diamond in the rough WR.
The Niners stank at scoring TD’s in the redzone last year. No doubt about it. Had they been better, it would not be unthinkable for the average Niner score to have been 30+ (Niner) to less than 10 (opponent). It was also clear that the Niners only true threat in the passing game was VD. If Fleener gets teams to stop 2-teaming Davis, then it is a good pick.
JH employs lots of TE’s in his formations. So, it is not too hard to imagine both VD and Fleener on the field at the same time without changing too much of what the Niners want to do.
The playoffs really just showcased how good VD can be (when he does not drop the ball!) and how poor the Niners are at WR. Both playoff games VD dominated. Both games, the WR’s could have been replaced with a wet rag to take their place and the same results would have happened in terms of WR production. Get somebody as skilled in WR as VD is at playing TE, and we win the Super Bowl easily in the next 2-3 years. Likely more than once.
I’d still take Wallace or my dream trade for LF over Fleener any day. But Wallace is not as good as LF so paying him LF money is not worth it for the long term success of this team. But, we would win a Super Bowl. No doubt.
Claude I agree with you and your assumptions will be verified on draft day. Some GM may draft Flenner to high, but the real fun starts if he lasts till the 30th pick. I believe, and this will ruffle quite a few feathers, they pass on Flenner if he is available.
Could happen Andrew. Baalke controls personnel so even if Harbaugh wants Fleener, he may lose the battle. It all depends on who is there when the pick comes up.
And WHEN i win the lotto? I’m going to invite every member of SF Hate’s The Splash blog to a brand new warehouse I’ll build for a keen party.
ehem,Anybody ever see the movie ‘Saw?”
@Grant, I like your suggestions and I agree that many of the later round picks will not make the team. One thing I am wondering however is if you think (and you obviously do since you mocked it) the 9ers will take two pass catchers in the first three rounds? With all of the FA signings on the offensive side of the ball I am starting to feel that this is going to be a defensive draft. I completely agree with Fleener in the first if he is there and the guard in the second. However I think this would be a good year to take a DL fairly early (round 3) since smith is getting older and Soap is a FA next year. I know we have RJF and a few others, but i think adding another competitor for camp would great. If we keep the later round picks then i would suggest taking another big receiver that could end up being a gem.
With that being said I think the first three rounds should be
1a. pass catcher
1b. RG (1a and 1b order depending on who is available at the pick)
3. DL depth
4-7 WR, DB, BPA, BPA
and i do agree with packaging picks this year to move up for guys we want. my picks 4-7 were if we hold on to some of them
Who would you target in the 3rd round? A nose tackle?
I think the Niners have plenty of DL depth. They should take Streeter in the third to hedge the Moss signing. They should consider carrying six receivers, too, as long as Ted Ginn Jr. is a “receiver” on the team.
I agree that we need a receiver to learn and eventually replace moss next year as well, and streeter would be a good one. I was just offering an additional idea to ponder on.
One name i have seen mentioned along the DL a few times is Jared Crick. It is hard to predict how long he will last because of the differing opinions of him, some have him going in the 2nd while some have him dropping to the bottom of 3. I like the idea of having a versital lineman that can play either the T or E position (played some of both at Nebraska).
Thanks for your response
Crick would be a great pick in the third for the Niners if he’s still available, but I’d bet he ends up going in the second round. I think the Niners believe in Tukuafu as a backup five-tech, but I could be wrong.
I also think RJF played well last season.
To me the 3rd isn’t where to grab a DL this year. If someone who’s really a potential ‘difference maker’ slips down to us at #30 and Fleener or Kunz aren’t there, I could see making a BPA pick for DL there. Drafting DL in the 3rd might not get much of an upgrade at depth.
Packaging pics could be OK, but even strong rosters in past years in SF have added some good 5th Rounder eventual starters ; Charles Haley comes to mind as one of those. Mid-round choices aren’t necessarily throw-aways. As tight as TB seems, I think he’d think long before spending too many.
If Dontari Poe fell and Fleener was off the board I could see the Niners drafting him. Good call.
GC “I don’t think the Niners will draft DL depth in this draft, no. Maybe next year. They’ll give Tukuafu and RJF another year to distinguish themselves. Plus, I don’t suspect they want to cut Dobbs or Ian Williams.”
I’ll give you that you said “depth” on the DL but try and stay consistent.
@Faithfull-
Grant’s still consistent. The premise I proposed was using a 1st Round pick; that’s not going for depth that’s choosing an eventual starter who could make the Pro Bowl one day. It’d be the classic BPA pick, and an unexpected one, like taking Crabs that year as a high 1st Rounder; not something they’d planned.
I doubt Crick falls all the way to round 3. He was a round 1 projection prior to getting injured this season. He has been impressive in workouts and will likely be gone by the end of round 2.
The consistent dig was partially for actually saying he doesn’t think we’ll go DL but Poe falling is an aberration. Mainly the stay consistent remark has to do with Grant’s laser lock on the idea that we need to draft an offensive play maker with our first pick.
Cowboy is getting up there and Soap is a FA next year. I could definitely see a DL pick in the first 3 rounds.
Dontari Poe is a boom or bust pick His drawbacks are that he played in a weak conference and didn’t dominate. He’s 6’5″ 350 and has conditioning issues, tends to take plays off and has short arms, 31. 5/8 for his size. Jared Crick is a good pick but he had injury concerns that derailed him last season. He hurt a knee in spring practice and when he came back he tore a pectoral muscle and was finished for the year. Reminds me of Pierce Holt, another talented player with an injury past.
1. BPA that fills a need. Do not reach. Maybe for the WR everyone keeps going on about but really the BPA that fills: WR, G, Pass Rush, S. Fleener will not be there so I will not comment on that…
2-7. See above.
I would like to see 3 WRs drafted, one being a return specialist/flex guy. Kind of like K. Williams. Putting the fumbles aside from KW, didn’t you have the feeling he was the only on the team that had any shake and bake. Towards the end of the season no WR had that separation, blow by, or make you miss feel. Maybe on KW.
I like Carlos Rogers’ priorities:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/03/30/SP5Q1NS90R.DTL
Sounds like a smart guy.
What’s most important to me is that Fleener drops to #30.
If the 49ers draft him, fine. I like what I see in him. If they draft someone else with Fleener still available at #30, that means they have someone they consider better. Either way works for me.
If Fleener or Hill are grabbed before #30, I might be a little disappointed but not too down. We “missed out” getting Peterson and Miller last year, and look who we got.
Fleener/Hill will not be drafted in the 1st Round IMHO.
I think fleener goes in the 1st. His output in college was better than that of shockey, Gronkowski, Winslow and others. He’s a fast play maker period. A game changer.
I’m not sure about trading up or down in this draft yet. It’s almost impossible for anyone including the FO to know who’s going to drop where and what’s going to happen. If they were able to, then please give me the most important numbers of them all: the $640 million mega lottery jackpot numbers!!
Back to football.
Some here have stated they wouldn’t mind trading some picks to move up essentially stating less is more for us. In some situations that idea is right. But in our case, unless we have great back ups at each position, I would respectfully disagree; especially since the average career for an NFL player is 3 years. Also, don’t forget free agency and the potential to lose some of our stars in the future. Most of the time, good teams get looted of their players and coaches to lesser teams willing to spend more money. So, maybe Aldon Smith or Bowman will be up for big contracts. In that case, what’s the possibility of keeping 3 highly paid Lb’s? not too good I would guess. So If I were the team, I would look at my roster and think ahead as far as the draft and use free agency for immediate needs and stop gap players.
Another option would be to trade some of our great talent and stockpile picks as it guarantees future players at a cheaper price. I would only do that after we’ve exausted their early contracts, approximately 4-5 years before their big pay day, unless our veteran talent was being over paid for their value at that time. That’s when you trade or cut them, like Walsh used to do!! Gore should have been traded 2 years ago, we would have got back at least a 2nd rd pick and he wouldn’t have hurt his hip. I was the first to suggest that at the time and everyone jumped at me. How do you feel about it now in hind sight?
So the moral of the story is to make every pick your best and keep recycling players when needed with no strings attached!! no feelings.
49ers draft history link 1967-2011. Wish we could have that 2004 first round pick back (WR Rashaun Woods).
Gotta love getting Paul Hofer in 11th round in 1976!
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/history/_/year/-1/round/-1/team/25
I would start at 2000-2008 except 05′, patrick willis and sopoaga, everything sucked and thats why we were so bad.
big niner – How about the worst trade in Niner history? Niners traded QB Tom Owen, two first round picks in 1976, and a first and second round pick in 1977 to Patriots for Jim Plunkett.
The Niners released Plunkett during the 1978 preseason.
I didn’t go back that far.
There will be rules changes next year. I really like extending the palyoff overtime rules to the regular season. I also like the automatic instant replay of all turnovers. ‘Turnovers will now be automatically reviewed via instant replay’
http://www.neontommy.com/news/2012/03/nfl-owners-meeting-leads-rule-changes
Remember when I posted that KNBR was bashing Matt Cain..it meant he would be traded? ..well,that still MIGHT happen..BUT, Cain has signed to do a show for THEGAME,it was announced yesterday. So,I was on the right track-he WAS targeted by KNBR..for doing a show on the competition. I’m sure the Giants squealed to KNBR long before THEGAME could say it in public.
Super Stan, you are a genius! Good luck getting to that trout farm in New Zealand. I hope to beat you to it.
Thanks…they say it could be a payout lump sum of near 700 million CASH. I could order Pizza and Chinese food delivered EVERY day…my dreams are simple..
@Stan
Toot your own horn much? By the way, if I cared about Baseball, I’d go to another blog.
Had to clear things up. And I was right-KNBR HAD targeted Cain as a “bad guy’.
And I still think he will be traded..if the Giants can’t afford him-why play him? Trade while the iron is hot.
Stan, They will keep him around for now, and if they are out of contention when the trade deadline nears they will look to make a trade.
JackH= They (Giants) might not like the idea of a uhappy Cain pitching..another Rowand,Zito, etc..players who just want out of the City.
If the Giants KNOW they will never agree to pay him 24-28 mill a year for 5-7 years..its get on the horn and deal for Sabean…
I think the Giants are gun shy after that horrific contract to Zito, if I was Cain I would go to free agency and go to a team that can score 3 or 4 runs a game, he would be a 20 game winner.
Way to go, Stan. Now, who are the Niners taking in Round #1?
I’m not sure. I’m hoping they trade up for Andy Luck..or the Baylor QB kid.
Those would be good picks huh?
And before you laugh-Truth is stranger then fiction.
Harbaugh-wanting Manning sooo bad,could be ready to offer no.1′s ,A.Smith and any three all pro’s on defense..for..?
He might not be in a mood for Fleener as his biggest haul.
Well! THAT seems a bit pricey! : >)
Seriously though, I don’t think you add by subtraction. How many blockbuster trades have worked out for both parties? Today with hindsight I would, but even back in the day I would’ve done that trade where Dallas gave up H. Walker to the Vikes for the foundation of a dynasty. How many SBs has Minn been to since that trade? Nada.
Exactly Bro. Like the Cowboys (when in the day,where they new what they were doing and what it took to win) Harbaugh may see his team as mostly replaceable..for a true great one.
Never fails to amaze me too,how many bad teams give up no.1′s for for a group of hasbeens and never were’s. Why they are losers…
@crab plunkett trade wouldnt have been so bad but steve mickamayer missed 3 last second chip shot FG’s or the 9ers would have been 11-3 in 1976. then eddie d bought the team and brought in pete thomas to be gm and he destroyed the team untill eddie d pulled his head out of his butt and hired bill walsh and the rest is history
@Coach. That there’s some accurate history. That kicker sucked that year. His misses kept the team out of contention and got the HC fired as well as the QB. And yeah, Man; the Joe Thomas hire was a disaster.
The fired coach, Monte Clark, continued to have Bad Kicker Karma: he faced BW& the 49ers in the playoffs a few years later and his Detroit kicker missed a chance to tie or win late in the game. Sucked for Monte.
That kicker was Eddie Murray. He was a pretty good kicker back in the ’80′s, early ’90′s. He is now working in sales for a wire and cable company up in the Great Lakes area.
@brotha do you remember mickamayers nick name?
Was it something like “Miss-a-mile”? I guess I don’t remember; remind me. Then, remind me again in 3 months since I’m such an old fart.
Crab15,
Nice to see Paul Hofer getting some love. One of may all-time favorite 49ers.
I love the decisiveness Grant. But I could also see the niners trading back in several spots.
How many draft picks do you think make the team? I say three. Any more and the Niners have to cut someone.
@Grant:
Why would that be a problem?
Who would you cut first? Second? Third?
And if they have to cut someone because he was outplayed? Not seeing the downside. Is that not what we want?
I think they could find a lot of players to come in and compete for the bubble spots on the roster, WR, backups at ILB, OLB, Saftey, DB, RB, OL. Either that or trading back all the way to next year’s draft. You take a team who you think is going to finish near last and offer them our first round pick this year for their first round next year. It seems like they have a lot of one year deals which would make having extra picks next year important.
Doesn’t it make more sense for this team this year to come away from this draft with two or three blue or bluish chip prospects instead of a lot of red chips ones? Bringing in guys to compete for bubble spots seems much less pressing than adding a right guard and a play maker on offense. The Niners need to give themselves the best chance possible to win the Super Bowl this season. They need a couple more impact players, not improved depth. Their depth is good enough.
What known great player have the Niners added Grant? None. None of our FA from other teams pick ups have been earth shattering. All will have to compete for jobs.
Grant,
It would be fine for the 49ers to trade up to get a certain player they have a high grade, realtive to the round [expected Pro Bowler to All Pro in the first round, solid starter to Pro Bowler in the second], but to just trade up simply to reduce the number of players in training camp doesn’t make sense to me. Perhaps that’s not what you’re suggesting.
I’m suggesting the first part of your sentence, not the second part. The second part would be nonsensical. Thanks for clarifying my argument for me.
Grant,
Who would be cut would depend upon which drafted players showed enough in OTA’s and/or training camp to earn a roster spot.
Besides, with the 49ers’ very solid roster, it doesn’t seem that having difficult roster choices is a bad thing.
Creating competition for mediocre depth is always a good thing – I’m not disputing that. But mediocre depth on defense didn’t hold the Niners back at all last year. A lack of play makers in the passing attack held them back (and the quarterback too, but that’s another topic). As long as they’re trying to win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith, they’ve got to give him more weapons and rock solid line. I think defensive depth in ’12 can suffer a bit for this expense.
Grant its all about improving the team talent. If you look at our roster we have a lot of players that were drafted in the 3rd to the 7th round such as:
Frank Gore
Dashon G
Miller
Hunter
Walker
J Morgan ( now his a starter for the Redskins)
KWilliams
A Dixion
Alex Boone
Tarell Brown
Chris Culliver
Dobbs
Larry Grant
Haralson
Jean Francois
Jones
McDonald
Mike Person
so if you have a history of finding talent in the 3rd to 7th round would you give up four picks to just get one starter if you may be able to get one to four starters and improve the overall talent of the team? How about the future! as you know in this day and age we can not afford to keep everyone so if you give up all your picks and do not improve the talent and the depth on your team then you will have a major issue later on!
They will only trade back if they are picking up additional picks for next year in my opinion.
I would cut Kyle Williams..then cut him again,and then one more time while kicking his mangy carcass…
Any thoughts on a QB named Tannehill?
Who?
Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M, is supposedly making scouts excited..Could be available if the 49ers traded up.
CK..looks to me to be too big a project.
Was just messing with you. All signs point to him reuniting with his college coach in Miami….
Tannehill is a project too. Harbaugh might as well finish what he started with Kap.
Watching QB pro days always remind me of Uncle Rico for some reason….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5_T0azEpqM
If Coach would have put me in in the fourth quarter, we would have won state. No doubt about it.
@Jack LOL. That’s awesome.
Teams are so desperate for QBs that Tannehill is being considered in the top ten. Also the rookie wage scale makes it possible for a team to draft a QB project in the first round and not break the bank.
Amen.Some conjecture Cleveland might be tempted to take him(NFL.NET)-great that would be another pick taken and who knows how the dominoes fall (or the talent) as the puzzle adjusts itself.
IMO Richardson would be a bigger difference maker for the Browns @4, so would Blackmon. But if Cleveland did pass on them it brings up some interesting scenarios. Who would fall the farthest? Would the Jags or Dolphins pass on Richardson?
I remember TB talking about there being good value at the WR position in the mid/late rounds.
So I don’t know why so many here are assuming late round picks are a waste here. That is really where teams get the most bang for their buck performance wise and where a GM really earns their pay.
@DS, you are correct about how the depth usually comes in the mid to late rounds.
I think the reason so many are dismissing the later rounds with this draft is that with all the activity in FA there are very few gaps, both starting and backups left to be filled.
If the Niners draft more than three players they’ll have to cut someone. Who would be the first three Niners you’d cut?
Not following your logic….
Whoever loses the training camp battle. All about the competition, which I think is great!
Love your blog btw Grant, great stuff!
Thanks, Scooter McDoober.
@Grant
It is the job of TB to get as many good players as possible into camp. It is the job of JH to teach them up. And, it is the job (I think) of TB to dump those who are not as good as others on the team.
I already stated that Jacobs (1 year for $2million base and 0 signing bonus) is no lock to make the team. Neither is Randy Moss. Manningham (who has a decent size signing bonus of $2 million and 1.2 million base this year going up to 3.6 million base next year) is no sure fire hit either. All have short term contracts and wouldn’t kill the Niners salary cap situation at all if dropped.
So, it is very possible that Niners draft 2 WR’s who show more promise and desire than Moss or Manningham. And that the Niners draft a RB as well who they think can do the same or better job Jacobs can.
Just because the Niners sign a player via FA does not mean that player is assured of a starting gig Grant. Inevitably, some FA’s signed during this period will be dropped come final cuts. Why is so hard to imagine it happening with the Niners?
The Niners want young guys who are coachable to their philosophy. The draft is still the best way to get these players. FA is still a risky business to do that.
As of right now Grant:
Joe Hastings/Derek Hall/Justin Peele /Konrad Reuland/Ryan Pontbriand/Moran Norris/Josh Johnson/Perrish Cox/Garrett Chisolm/Cory Nelms/Tolzein/Brett Swain/Dixon/Michael Wilhoite
are all guys how basically can be cut and cost the Niners nothing salary cap hit wise (or extremely little).
That seems like a quite a list. Plus those drafted players who don’t make the team. That is a list out of about 70.
I could possibly see the Niners dropping Boone, but it is doubtful since they have him for quite a while. Same for CK if Johnson does well and leaves CK in the dust. Doubtful, but not impossible.
Larry Grant may not sign with us, so that would leave a hole in the MLB position as back-up. Kyle Williams is certainly not assured of coming back after the Title game.
Basically any WR the Niners had last year is on the chopping block, as is any drafted guy or FA pick up. None are current world class WR’s so all need to compete with one another for however many WR spots the Niners intend to keep. Likely 5 or 6.
Stop the presses: Dontavia Bogan just got waived.
Did they have to wait till he got healthy?
Yes. If they cut him before he was medically cleared to resume football activities they’d owe him an injury settlement according to CSNBayArea
ya just read that myself.
The 1st question that came to mind was “who is Dontavia Bogan”? I had forgotten about this.
Dixon just tweeted: “In the words of my Big Homie Justin Smith,When times get rough he always say,What A Man Do? Bowe up,get ya azz in gear! Gotta love him!”
nice quote
Grant, you’re young and in touch with the lingo so help us old guys. What the hell is “Bowe up”?
I wish I knew.
Kaepernick just retweeted: “”@Kramercia: @Kaepernick7 11pm EST. If I win I am buying 49ers and making you the starter!” referring to the lotto.
Kaepernick added to the end of that: “I hope you win then.”
Shouldnt he be sanctioned for insubordination in this Tweet? How dare he openly challenge the incumbent! It’s treasonous!
The demands for him to be traded will increase for sure.
@Grant
The Tweet updates are a nice addition to your page! Keep it up for those of us who don’t Twitter.
Also, what’s your opinion of Marvin McNutt? Saw a couple Iowa games last year and he came up big. Also heard him interviewed a couple of weeks ago and he sounds ambitious, smart, & modest.
Thanks, I will keep it up.
McNutt’s got everything but speed, it seems, and he’ll be a late second or early third round pick.
4.5? Thats not slow. It’s faster than Brandon Marshall. I like mcNutt. And he’s def no diva.
No, it’s not slow. I didn’t call him slow. But you can’t call him fast, either.
Either way, he’ll be a good WR in the right system. He’d be a good fit for the WCO. I think the Niners want more speed, though. They already have Crabtree.
Great news ,someone to interpret whathegiddup is being said in some of them would suit me!
McNutt is 6’4″
Crabs is 6’1″
–
McNutt has a higher ceiling, I believe. As a former QB, he understands the nuances of offenses from a commander’s perspective. He is hungry. Best of all, he is modest, no diva traits.
McNutt was listed at 6’4″ by Iowa but he only measured 6’2″ at the Combine. There are also questions about his effort when he’s blocking or isn’t the primary receiver. His production is undeniable though.
At 6’2″ he’s still a big WR. I believe the main knock on him is that he’s not an explosive or sudden athlete, so there are question marks as to whether he will be able to separate out of his breaks in the NFL.
Ahhhh….
Grant don’t we have another Story Line or are you going for a record 354 posts!
Grant how do you feel about the Saints breaking the rules and lying to the NFL about their bounty program and now that have been caught they are appealing the suspension for Payton!!! They are starting to really bug me for the unethical behaivor and now complaining about the punishment!
Sean Payton should be banned for life. He’s a criminal. Many other Saints were complicit as well.
That’s a little over the top don’t you think, criminal, banned for life?
No.
As a former football player I completely agree with you. It is so shocking that he has the courage to appeal the suspension after his criminal act. NFL should punish them even more for appealing and disrespecting the game we all love.
Here’s my dad’s take: http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20120328/NEWS/120329523/1057/SPORTS0908?p=all&tc=pgall
What’s criminal is this joker actually thinks he’s a journalist.
Press democrat if your out there listening, we need intelligent stories and insights into 49er football, not a soap opera paparazzi bs.
Okay…
I’m suckend into your web Grant,
I totally agree with your take on Payton,
It’s 1 thing to lie or cover up what ever happen in those 3 years to the Commish. But then after your punishment for Payton to have the liberty to pick his own successor for next season without going thru the “Rooney Rule” is a Defiant to the largest degree!
As Cheech & Chong would say in 1 of their famous Takes….
“Baliff…Slap His Pippy!”
I only read a bit of Plato in college but I’m fairly certain he never invoked the “Weasel Principal”.
He was indeed the first to invoke it, but Kant made it famous.
@Clemons
I didn’t even know Mickey Mouse’s dog was published, let alone that he’s biased against weasels.
How about a blog about who your guess is for the opening day opponent in our new stadium?
I wanna hear yours first.
Cowboys
…i heard the Cowboys are playing the Giants……
@DS, It is very likely that Larry Grant returns this year. The LB market is very soft this year and his price tag might be too high (salary + draft pick)
@Jack
What is the pick? 4th round? I’d think a 4th round pick for a proven NFL player is worth it.
How likely are you to find a better proven player with a 4th round pick? If the odds are stacked against you finding such a player in the 4th round then you proudly give it up.
Grant (Larry, not Cohn) received an original tender so the pick would be a 7th rounder. I’m also surprised someone hasn’t grabbed him yet.
Larry is my middle name.
I assume Lowell tendered you at least at the 3rd round pick level.
As any good father would.
Larry Grant is the ILB equivalent of Matt Flynn. The difference is ILB’s have far less value in free agency, especially this year.
@Jack
Larry Grant is easily worth a 7th round pick.
@DS, Larry Grant is just like Matt Flynn, except he plays ILB. Like Flynn, he has limited starts in the league and played very good for us last year. While his value to SF is 1.26m and a 7th round pick, the market is showing that to be too much at this time.
If I had to bet on it, I would say he is back with the 49ers for 2012.
Everybody wants Flenner, but how many times will he be targeted in a game in this offense? Say he sees the ball 4 times in a game, how many snaps will he see the entire game? It’s common knowledge he’s not a blocker at this stage. So he’ll be coming in on certain packages if that’s the case. He becomes a part time player in his early days with the team and won’t be on the field on running downs.
@Andrew.
While I’m not a guy who thinks Fleener (or anybody else) is the MUST DRAFT prospect, I think JH can find multiple uses for him at TE, H-back, slot, “X”, or “Z”. Think Juravicous or Plaxico.
If Baalke thinks he can reach his potential, S.Hill would open up the field more than Fleener, but on a leap of faith, so might Streeter in the 2nd round.
@Andrew, I think any rookie receiver would be a part time player this year. 1st year wide-outs tend to struggle adapting to the NFL. Fleener has the best chance to make an immediate impact because he knows the system and his size gives him an innate advantage over pro DBs.
It sort of depends on whether Baalke wants a boost in 2012 with Fleener or if he wants to build for the future by drafting a receiver to grow with Kaepernick.
Okay…
I’m suckend into your web Grant,
I totally agree with your take on Payton,
It’s 1 thing to lie or cover up what ever happen in those 3 years to the Commish. But then after your punishment for Payton to have the liberty to pick his own successor for next season without going thru the “Rooney Rule” is a Defiant to the largest degree!
As Cheech & Chong would say in 1 of their famous Takes….
“Baliff…Slap His Pippy!”
I stand corrected…
Pee…Pee!
As a Pink Floyd song would say ….”I was really drunk at the time”
Grant i mostly agree with your opinions but not with banned Payton for life a 6 month or 1 year suspension ok tats purely from a humanitary view just like Pete Rose the guy is already punished enough look at Vick he’s got a second chance after his horrendous dog ring.
BTW i agree with picking Fleener and i would also move up 5 spots if necessary with Silatolu i would only move up if he isnt picked before 20 BTW Brandon Brooks Would be a nice plan B option ;) , so you like UCLA what do you think of the fresh air with Jim Mora?
I wish they had brought in Mora when I was still a student. He’s going to be a good college coach.
I disagree. I think the Mora brand began and ended with the senior Mora. Lil Jim is a good Coordinator, but he won’t get the players’ respect, and, let’s face it, Westwood will never be a football town. At least not as long as games are played 2.5 hours from campus.
He’s been a pretty bad head coach in the NFL, why would he be a good head coach in college, he is a good defensive coordinator that is all we know for sure.
He just had a monster recruiting class – brought in the next Mike Vick to play QB (Devin Fuller), and he’s going to run a pro 3-4. The defense will be stacked very soon. Remember this name: Ellis McCarthy.
Neal, he took the Falcons to the NFC Champiosnship in his first season as Head Coach. Yep, he was awful.
Big deal Jack, he got fired the next year and got fired again at Seattle, is Bill Callahan a good coach because he took the Raiders to the Super Bowl or would you consider Barry Switzer a great coach because he won a Super Bowl, none of these guys including Mora jr would ever get a opportunity to be a head coach in the NFL again.
Mora Jr. will be a better college coach than Jeff Tedford for starters.
We don’t know if he will be better then Tedford, UCLA is not exactly a power house on the football field.
Mora Jr. just whooped Tedford in recruiting. He took three or four of his best players at the last minute. UCLA’s 2012 recruiting was top-10 across the nation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoCw5gkmwxQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rev9yxypjkY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JVDsfh6mXo
Cal hasn’t exactly been a power on thr football field the last couple years either Neil.
Tedford relied WAY too much on Tosh Lupoi for recruiting and it’s costing him now that Tosh is on a mf’ing boat.
*grumble grumble*
robwco:
Vic did his jail time and then got his second chance, Peyton is going to do his time in suspension and THEN he will get his second chance too.
And Pork,Crabs also has no diva traits.
Holdout without ever playing a down is divalicious. Never playing in a preseason game is divalicious. Obviously the kid never wanted to play for the Niners, which is his prerogative, but he should have held firm and demanded a trade to Dallas.
–
Oh yeah, and Tim, if you’re going to point out how Harbaugh has said Crab is a team guy who works hard, I’ll remind you that Alex is an “elite” QB.
But Pete Rose not Tim? hmmm
I’m thinking I’d like to trade out of the 1st Round into the top 2nd Round for another 1st Round pick next year. Take Zeitler and then next year find a way to get Monte Bell. Then you could still get Marvin Jones in the 3rd Round.
does the 30th pick get you a second this year and a first next year?
Grant, good piece here, thank you. I neither follow college ball closely enough nor trust my own ability to pick those who can make the leap from college to pros and excel (i remind myself of this every year: i thought mike phipps was cant miss back in 1970!). But i’m a big fan of trading picks if it means you get the talent you just have to have. And given last year’s excellent draft, i can’t wait to see what the FO does this year.
Yeah Grant i think mora can bring the same energy that Kelly did when ND hired him i think the program needs him and there is a good QB waiting for him ;)
Michael Floyd is passing Justin Blackmon on big boards according to Rotoworld. Could Kendall Wright pass him, too? What about Stephen Hill?
I like Stephen Hill’s height-weight-speed “measurables”, but there is not alot of video on him. Most say its because he played in a conservative offense.
Youtubes show Hill making spectacular catches, and also a few wide open clanker drops.
All depends on what Harbaugh and Baalke sees. Are Hill’s (apparent) flaws correctable?
Please forgive my “draft speak”, but it seems Hill has more upside with his athleticism, while Fleener is the “safe pick” with his polished productivity and natural ball skills.
I’m still liking Fleener for resolving the glaring needs of 3rd down conversions and red zone scoring. Fleener would also be less of a threat to the existing signed receivers. (Not sure Harbaugh cares about that. He likes competition)
I still believe the Jaguars draft Michael Floyd and the Bills draft Stephen Hill. I’m sticking by those predictions. If the Rams pass on Blackmon, things will get interesting. Blackmon could free fall.
JFC! If the league wants to let Blackmon fall to us I won’t complain! I’m not betting on it though.
1986- My all time favorite 49er drafts, trading back for more picks:
Round 1 – (traded)
Round 2 – Larry Roberts
Round 3 – Tom Rathman, Tim McKyer, John Taylor
Round 4 – Charles Haley, Steve Wallace, Kevin Fagan
Round 6 – Don Griffin
(out of 13 total players drafted in a 12 round draft)
1985 – My all time favorite 49er drafts, trading up for quality picks:
Round 1 – Jerry Rice
Round 5 – Bruce Collie
(Out of 6 total players drafted in a 12 round draft)
This season the 49ers don’t need to pack the roster with training camp bodies. Trading picks in rounds 4-7 up makes sense.
If targeted players are gone at #30, trading back into the second round also makes sense. Packing rounds 2-3 with about 4 quality picks sounds about right. With the new draft format, it also gives an extra day to review rhe draft board and trade possibilities.
Highlights of Rob Lownes and Josh Norris’ twittermock: Ravens take Kuechly @29. Niners take Fleener @30. Says Norris about the Fleener pick, “Talk about adding a new dimension to your offense…”
Also, Poe to the Rams @ 6, Floyd to the Bills @ 10, Blackmon to the Chiefs @ 11, Wright to the Bears @ 19, Silatolu to the Steelers @ 24 and Hill to the Texans @ 26.
Norris’ comment about Silatolu, “Have been rumblings tms (teams) prefer him to Iupati.”
What appeals to me is how Fleener makes the offense so unpredictable. If Moss works out, imagine… Moss wide left, Manningham wide right, Vernon at TE, Fleener at TE, Gore in the backfield.
With Moss, Manningham’s leaping ability, and Fleener at 6’6″, our “above the pad level” passing games would be deadly.
And she sub combinations are appealing too, with Walker, Crabtree and Millar. Talk about exploiting matchups.
I think at all depends on if Harbaugh/Baalke think of Fleener’s blocking ability. They likely don’t expect him to stone defensive tackles, but he should be able to handle linebackers and safeties. If not, the Niners skip him.
Alex needs to take more chances (throwing to covered receivers) to make that above the pad level game work.
That’s true Grimey, but I wonder if one of the reasons he doesn’t throw “competed” passes is because he’s never had receivers he could trust to come down with it. With Moss and Fleener you are talking about real height mis-matches, which puts those competed passes in your favour.
I don’t think Fleener’s blocking ability is the make or break on the 49ers drafting him (if he’s available at #30). It’s about whether they think he will add a worthwhile dimension to the passing game. With his combo of speed, hands, height and leaping ability, I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t add something to at least the red zone offence.
If Silatolu is rated by the 49ers as a 1st rounder, and he’s available at 45-50, then I think you’re mock could happen Grant.
I didnt win the lotto. So I cant come back here and act superior and say my (deleted) dont stink like I was looking forward to doing. So,my (deleted) does stink.
Super Stan, your misfortune is great for the rest of us. Your takes are often pure GENIUS!!
Been wondering how future opponents would affect this draft/FA.
The 49ers play some incredibly high powered offenses in 2012. Away games include the NY Jets (6-2 at home), New England, Green Bay and New Orleans… with a home game against the NY Giants (who played better no the road).
The NFC West may not have the great record, but has been getting much more physical on both sides of the ball. Our division will be beating up team for the next several years. Think “Black and Blue West.”
All this tells me the 49ers will need depth on defensive front 7 and running back. I’m hoping for Fleener and a Guard/Center, but I would not be surprised if the 49ers grabbed a another pass rusher or defensive lineman. Also hoping Larry Grant does not get away.
Agreed. Some more quality depth at DL and OLB sounds good to me.
To be honest, I’m not as worried about guard as others appear to be. Baalke knew what he was doing last year when he drafted Kilgore and Person. He would have known Snyder and Rachal’s contracts were coming up, and I’m confident he believes Kilgore can rise to the challenge. But if there’s a chance to grab a future star OG in the 2nd round, I’m all for that too.
That’s the dumbest trade ever like the fleener,streeter picks dow but they will use all there picks an wave the weak links after training camp competition is key next step super bowl