Take this for what it’s worth – Alex Smith has always been bad on third down.
Before I explain, let me define my terms. “Average” on third down would be a 38 percent conversion success rate and five conversions per game.
In 2006, Smith’s first full season starting, the Niners offense converted 34.45 percent of third downs and averaged 4.5 third-down conversions per game. Both figures ranked 26th in the NFL.
In 2009 Smith started ten games, and over that stretch the Niners offense converted a paltry 30.15 percent of third downs and averaged just 4.1 third-down conversions per game. Both figures ranked 29th.
In 2010 Smith started nine games and rebounded to his 2006 form – 34.09 percent third-down conversion rate, 4.6 third-down conversions per game, both ranking 25th.
Last season, Smith’s third-down play tanked inexplicably. He converted a mind-bogglingly low 28.11 percent of third downs and averaged 3.89 third-down conversions per game, ranking 31st. For reference, Tim Tebow averaged 3.92 third-down conversions per game in 2011.
Smith has historically converted roughly four third downs per game. That’s bad, but it’s not a killer – not on this great Niners team. Smith converted four third downs against the Saints in the playoffs and won.
Smith’s main problem on third down is his propensity to get shut out entirely. Over his last 26 starts, he’s converted two or fewer third downs nine times.
Does Smith deserve all the blame? No. Offensive linemen have to block and wide receivers have to get open and catch the ball, and Smith hasn’t had the best offensive line or wide receivers over the years.
Maybe Greg Roman should take the blame for Smith getting outplayed by Tebow on third down last season. After all, Roman routinely called ultra-ultra-conservative plays with leads or near field goal range.
Maybe it’s not Smith’s fault. I just can’t help but notice that while his interception rate and red zone effectiveness have fluctuated over the years, for whatever reason his third down results have always been bad.
On the other hand, Joe Flacco, who some might rank in the same QB tier as Smith, has always had good results on third down.
In 2008, Flacco converted 39.26 percent. In 2009, 42.8 percent. In 2010, 40.17 percent. And in 2011, 41.98 percent.
Mark Sanchez had his worst season ever on third down in ’11, converting 34.74, a higher rate than Smith has ever produced. Sanchez also converted 40.43 percent in 2010.
Matt Ryan converted 43.46 percent in 2011 and 46 percent in 2010.
Obviously third down conversions aren’t everything. What do you make of Smith’s bad third-down numbers?
Update: Here are more in-depth 2011 third-down stats for Smith, via the Washington Post, courtesy of our commenter BigP:
“#12 in NFC on 3rd down passing conversions, #23 overall.
#16 in NFC on 3rd and <3 yards, #32 overall.
#11 in NFC on 3rd and 3-7 yards, #23 overall.
#11 in NFC on 3rd and 8+ yards, #20 overall.
#12 in % First Downs/Attempt, #20 overall.”
Update No. 2: For another point of comparison, Shaun Hill converted 40.17 percent of his third downs as a Niner from 2007 to 2009.
Does that take into account when a run is called on 3rd down? Or is this strictly passing on 3rd? Do you have any stats that show where the 49ers ranked amongst other teams in calling runs versus pass plays on 3rd down? Appreciate your work Grant. Even if you do like to post Polarizing topics often….pure comedy. Hope they keep you around of all the blogs I follow over last couple years this is the one that has the most turnover for writers.
This takes into account all 49er third downs when Alex Smith was on the field in games he started.
This is a step up from your other blogs. Good job, Grant.
Did you compare it to Dilfer? Hill? JT O’Sullivan? Any other QB we’ve had?
Did you account for distance? Passes dropped? Anemic 1st and 2nd down rushing?
Did you account for that the 49ers have, for years, been one of the poorer pass-blocking lines in the NFL and that Smith, and every other QB, has lead the NFL for passes thrown away to avoid sacks, pressured while throwing, sacks, hits and hurries on a per-pass play?
Let me know when you do some real research and seperate the garbage out. Because this was just silly.
Rodgers plays behind a worse pass-protecting line than Smith does and he’s phenomenal on third down.
@Grant
Adam spent all year blasting that theory out of the water. Didn’t you read his posts?
Average time AR had to pass was much greater than average time AS had to pass. Think that helps the QB at all?
Rodgers buys the time himself. His line isn’t as talented as the Niners’ line. Plus, Rodgers doesn’t have a run game which means he doesn’t have a strong play-action game. He has to scramble and throw accurate bullets on the run and he does.
@Grant:
Rodgers plays behind a worse pass-protecting line than Smith does.
No he doesn’t. Smith got sacked more times on fewer dropbacks.
Then there’s this:
http://hosted.stats.com/fb/protection.asp?type=overall
Rodgers makes that line. Who’s the best player on it?
@Grant
The Niner OL often had the pocket collapse from all sides. Nobody can escape that consistently and not do something stupid (like fumble the ball). Look at Vick for proof.
And when I saw AR play, he was only pressured more than not from one defender. Not the whole defense. Any QB worth his salt should be able to elude a single defender long enough to throw the ball away. AS showed he can move and run better in the playoffs than AR could. Mixed in with AS two TD passes in the title game were an awful lot of good runs by AS.
Also, keep in mind that AS ran for the winning TD (we all thought), then threw for the winning TD (this time it stayed) in the same game. How many QB’s have ever done that? And I mean make a real run. Not a little QB sneak deal to win a pressure filled game like that.
Please go back and read Adams posts. If anything, I got annoyed after awhile of him putting up the same thing. Maybe he had a point in doing so, because some didn’t read it.
Name the best player on the Packers offensive line. Actually, name any player on the Packers offensive line. Don’t look it up, either.
Claude Balls – Grant’s point is that Rogers helps make those rankings much better for GB’s offensive line and Smith hurts the 49ers line in those rankings. Go back and looking at the run blocking stats of the Detroit Lions when they had Barry Sanders at RB. Their numbers were phenomenal and it had EVERYTHING to do with #20, Barry Sanders. Otherwise, it was always known as a below overage O-line. Another example: look how horrendous the Colts were this past season without Payton Manning. a 13 win season swing based on one player being under center at QB.
@Grant
AR does not block.
And I don’t know who their best OL is. I am not a Packer fan. But maybe it is like the Niners from the 80′s. Individually, few could hold their own. Collectively, they dominated.
That is an unfair question Grant
Lots of causal fans can’t name a single OL on their own team. It is the least respected part of the starting unit of either defense or offense. If your name is called, it is because you stank or made a mistake of some kind.
I can’t name a single OL from I bet 1/2 the teams in the NFL. Maybe more. Does not mean that 1/2 the teams in the NFL have worse OL’s than ours. If Boss was not a former Niner, I could not name you a single Giant OL. What are you getting at? That a player who is not well known (especially one from 2,000 miles away from SF) can’t be good?
@Mike in SF#2:
Or, he could just be wrong about the relative pass blocking strength of the 2 lines.
@Grant:
I just asked the Green Bay Packer fan down the hall to name a player on the 49ers’ offensive line. He was unable to do so.
How about 2011 Pro Bowl LT Joe Staley? The Packers had a Pro Bowl O-lineman in ’11 too, C Scott Wells, and he signed with the Rams this offseason.
DS94everXev – Are you arguing a QB does or does not make an O-line look good or bad? Stop defending Alex and step back and talk about the NFL at large. If you don’t think good QB’s with quick triggers hide mediocre O-lines I suggest you start following a sport that you understand better. This point should not even be an argument.
In reference to the Aaron Rodgers discussion. The better question would be how do teams defend the Packers in 3rd down situations? Do they bring the blitz or do they just rush 3 or 4? Also the last time I checked the Packers have a pretty elite receiving unit. Shoddy OL and WRs are whats plaguing the 49ers 3rd down %.
It doesn’t matter if you blitz or play coverage against Rodgers. He’s equally great against both. They key is to hit him fast with your front-four.
@Mike in SF #2
Are you arguing that a good OL does not make a QB look good?
Gee. Stupid questions and arguments. Get over it already. We are both equally right or wrong. Whatever.
I’d be curious to know the average yardage needed on third down and how that compares to other teams. Poor first and second downs or penalties play into it of course. One of my big concerns is that the Niners will just settle somewhat because “we have a great defense and special teams…therefore it’s OK to have a sub-average offense”, which is a horrible philosophy. In other words, the bar isn’t set that high. When the Niners were great, their defense and offense were both typically top-7 in the league. I don’t ever want to hear our offense “is good enough to win most games”. I want to hear our offense “is good enough to dominate most games”.
@Htesrepus
No it isn’t.
The title on the internet page says AS problems. Not anybody else. So, it must be true.
DS94everXev – The point is simple. Alex Smith is NOT very good on 3rd downs and we have 6 years of history in the NFL to prove that point. Its black and white. There is no need for excuses. It is what it is.
@DS
Sorry I completely forgot to follow the will of the hive mind and believe any and everything I read on the internet. I’m searching for that reprogramming software to get ride of that nasty urge to question things.
@Mike in SF #2
Are you a football fan, Niner fan, or just dislike AS a ton?
You didn’t read or understand my last post to you very well.
It is just as correct to state the RB/OL/WR/TE are bad on 3rd down. In some circles we call that the offense is bad on 3rd down. But maybe you don’t know what the offense is. Only that AS is the reason why they stank.
@DS
Ding Ding correct
I think a more accurate title would be “49ers problems on third downs”. To me its very narrow minded to single out the QB as the scape goat of why things go wrong on offense. There are 11 people on the field, they all have to be in sync and the coach has to make a smart play call.
Seriously Grant, are you 15 years old? You act like it.
I’m 24; thanks for asking. How old are you?
So in effect you’re saying that Alex Smith has All Pro talent at the Receiver position to throw to?
You can bring up any number of “Elite” QBs’ but there isn’t one that is constantly kicked the crap out of who doesn’t have AP talent to throw to.
Btw? 3rd Down is a TEAM stat. So in effect you’re saying that with Alex Smith on the field the TEAM sucks. Right?
At this point I don’t give a crap if we convert another 3rd down so long as the TEAM is Winning.
My how far we’ve come since the days of when there were messy Shaun Hill posters above the bed of every 9er fan and his performance didn’t matter so long as we got the Dubya. I tell you the only way Smith is gonna get any peace is if he is locked away in an Airtight container.
Shame on you for only doing half the work Grant. Did you go through your Game logs(do you even keep one?) and tally up all the drops and Play Calls?
Considering they have a DIRECT correlation to the statistics you’re throwing about? Considering your half a55ed attempt to cover these issues I would say you did and that it didn’t track with the rest of your story and you left it out. Either that or your Editor wants more his and did a hatchet job on your story. :/
Oh and Grant, name a AP Receiver this team has fielded since before Alex Smith was the Starter.
I don’t mind if you look it up either. Take your time we’ll wait.
In that time Name a single year where Rodgers was the Starter that they didn’t have even a PRO BOWL Receiver let alone an AP Receiver. Not that easy but this should be interesting. O_o
Why does Vernon Davis not count? What a travesty that Smith’s had to throw to Davis for so long.
Haha, nice one Grant – Vernon should indeed count as an AP receiver. Sure would be nice to have another though…
To the point at hand – Alex cannot be blamed entirely for the 49ers woes on 3rd down, that is on the whole offense. But he certainly hasn’t been part of the solution either. How often does he take a dump off pass on 3rd down that ends up short of the marker? I’ve seen that a few times, and I find it hard to believe that is the first option on those plays. If that is the first option, then that is terrible play calling, and perhaps Harbaugh doesn’t deserve as much praise as he gets.
Yeah what a Travesty that Smith was the main contributor to Davis’s 13 TD season. Hell I bet with Shaun Hill throwing to Davis, dude would have had 20 TDs’ in ’09. i_i
How about this Grant an you can defend your point if you like, but Davis as good as he is, don’t you think he would have had a better season in ’10 with better talent surrounding him besides the QB? You know guys that demand attention from the DC?
Name a team that didn’t stack the Box daring our QBs’ to throw on em? You might want to go back and look at Frank’s numbers before you weigh in. Sad thing is Frank is so good that he put up decent numbers every year by breaking big Runs. Tell me that his is not related to how Teams run their Defenses against the 9ers.
I’d stack the box too with the Pop Warner Receivers we’ve had for the last 8 years. Picking up Castoff Receivers is okay but make sure you get the Receivers from SUCCESSFUL Offenses. KC? Johnny Morton? Ike Bruuce who should have retired rather than play? At least he was somewhat reliable. Didn’t have the stone hands that Ginn has. I’d say Lelie but that poor guy got run out of the league by Jerry Sullivan. Couldn’t get out of Sullivan’s doghouse. In favor of nobodies because they’re the best Practice Warriors of the unit.
Don’t even blame the QB, cause there was more than just Smith throwing to these scrubs.
So there’s no doubt in your mind he can lead the Niners to a Super Bowl victory this season?
Grant- Did you take into account who the Packers played last year? Their schedule was pathetic. Rodgers didn’t look so good against the Cheifs or the Giants tho. They’re the only teams they played that had a defense.
Do you honestly think Rodgers would be as good as he is now had the 9ers drafted him? He did have 3 years to just study defenses and strengthen his weaknesses in the weight room. Bottom line is, he’s been in a much better situation than AS has been in. They’ve always had so much talent at rec. that you have to pick your poison. AS has never had that! NEVER! This year will definitely be the best talent he’s had and if he fails, then I will listen to your stats!
The Chiefs and the Giants both had a monster pass rush and the Packers O line broke down at the end of the season.
Yes, I think Rodgers would be just as good if the Niners drafted him. The talent is undeniable.
@Grant
Only 1 team will win. However many QB’s you call elite there are in the league, at most 1 of them will win. The others will fall and fail. Do they suck? Brady has not won one in what 5 years or so. Does he suck? If so, then that explains why he has not won. If not, then the idea that if you are elite you will win every year is not a good argument.
Plus add the fact that a new QB or non-elite QB can win the big game.
Brady’s defense and run game suck.
@MontanaMan16
+1
Look at who the Pack played and when they played them (who was injured/in a long losing streak, etc.). Everything fell into place perfectly for them. And yet they got hammered big time at home by the same team which barely beat us. In the Packer game the refs screwed the Giants big time. They should have won by a lot more. In the Niner game, the refs made up for that by screwing the Niners instead, because that was a fumble and we would have scored a FG almost 100% guarantee and that would have won us that game.
The Packers can’t compete with the Niners 2-53. Neither can the Giants, nor the Patriots. Only the Ravens can, and they come up short.
Look at Brady’s playoff stats since he lost the perfect season Grant.
They really, really, really suck. Big time.
he only played well against the Broncos. He stank it up against both the Ravens and Giants games. You think AS blew it. Look at Brady’s numbers. Look at Brady’s decision making. That has zilch to do with running game and defense. That has to do with him.
Besides, Brady seems fine in the regular season with the same horribly defense and running game. And in the last Super Bowl, the defense did a decent job I thought. Brady blew that game.
If you consider yourself a fair observer, you look at the AFC title game and the Super Bowl and tell me that AS was/would have been worse than Brady.
So when Brady does poorly it’s on him, but when Smith does poorly it’s on the receivers and the offensive line?
What is 2-53? You keep bringing it up.
Is 1 supposed to be the QB?
And the Ravens have a very good OL (Oher is every bit Staley’s equal), and a very good WR in Boldin and a good RB (Ray Rice). Of course their defense can hold their own against anybody.
The Niners don’t have anybody remotely near Boldin’s skills at WR. And if the refs didn’t throw the game in any one teams direction, it would have the Ravens and Niners in the Super Bowl. Which is what I wanted after that Thanksgiving Day game.
Yes, 1 is the QB.
Outside of Suggs, the Ravens linebackers can’t compete with the Niners’ LBs.
Nobody has ever said that Grant.
But if you look at your stats which I know you are so fond of, compare the stats of AS and TB in the playoffs. They would reveal that Brady blew it. Nobody forces you (TB) to throw that Int Brady threw in the Super Bowl in the 4th quarter. I believe Brady threw a 4th quarter Int in both games.
4th quarter Int’s lose games. How many did AS have? How many did AS have in the playoffs?
P.S. TB’s wife complained after the game that the WR’s blew it for her hubby by dropping passes. Funny. Don’t you think? Considering the issue that I among many have about our own WR’s. And the Pats are looking to upgrade their WR’s. So, they are looking to upgrade the position which dropped passes. You are looking to upgrade the position which didn’t drop passes and was 6-0 (Td:Int.)
What is wrong with the Pats’ running game? Didn’t some guy named Ridley have six yards per carry last year?
If the Pats wanted to run the ball, they would get a quality halfback. But they don’t choose to run much, so they don’t need one.
Grant
The best MLB in the 80′s was Mike Singletary. He only won once.
The best MLB in the 2000′s is Ray Lewis. He only won once.
LB’s and MLB’s especially don’t win titles Grant. Overall pressure and TO’s do. And the Ravens at home anyway are really good at both.
Sorry, but I don’t see how we can compare year to year and draw conclusions on Alex Smith’s third down performance if you’re including running plays. You should have excluded all running plays where Alex Smith did not carry the ball.
See that’s the problem, people comment on here they don’t watch the packers or any team aside from the 49ers so they have no frame of reference and shouldn’t be in a football discussion. The niners offensive line is FAR SUPERIOR to the Packers and Colts of the last few years, Staley was a pro bowler name a pro bowler on the packers or colts (their line has been bad since tarick glen retired. Everybody knows Aaron Rodgers and Peyton get rid of the ball about 5 seconds fast than smith. You just have to be a little lucid to see that Alex Smith holds the ball forever, more often than not his sacks are self imposed.
Then this is not a reflection on Alex Smith, per se. This is a reflection on the Niners offense, which is what I suspected. Look at the obvious passing plays: the Niners are a little below average. Look at the 3rd and shorts: the Niners are terrible. This is a reflection on the Niners’ running game, which was pretty terrible in terms of efficiency last year. I would really like to see Smith’s actual passing stats on third down. If you could find that, that would be awesome.
Then why was Shaun Hill consistently good on third down as a Niner? He was throwing to Isaac Bruce and Arnaz Battle.
Yes Grant he was. Both didn’t drop passes and actually got open until year 2 when age caught up with the ageless wonder
Are you saying MC and Ginn are better?
Crabtree and Williams are better than 36-year old Bruce and Battle, yes. No question.
@Grant
I know you love your stats so here are the career stats of all 4 players you mention.
Make sure you look at 2008 numbers for Issac Bruce. That is the Issac Bruce I am talking about. Which by the way was the Issac Bruce Hill looked so good with.
http://www.nfl.com/player/isaacbruce/2499879/profile
http://www.nfl.com/player/arnazbattle/2505571/careerstats
http://www.nfl.com/player/michaelcrabtree/71269/careerstats
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/player/kyle-williams/careerstats/766549?seasonState=RegularSeason&q=kyle-williams
Keep in mind that MC has never had a year as good as Issac Bruce has had in his first year here (7 TD’s and higher catch average than any MC year). And that KW did not post up better numbers than Arnaz Battle did in all but 2003, 2004, 2009. And in his first two years he was a college QB having to learn a new position in WR, so cut the guy some slack here. And in 2009, he just ran out of gas, but it is also interesting that he is still in the NFL as of 2011 for the Steelers. And, I remember him catching a lot of 3rd down passes from any QB to help him out and get that first down more so than I have seen MC do so.
BULLSEYE! Hit that on the head.
BULLSEYE! Hit that on the head.@Islandguyj49ers
Lol, Grant gets owned so instead of addressing his oversights and mistakes, he changes topics and makes childish arguments completely overlooking the mistakes that people have patently pointed out.
..I agree with you…….he does not take into account the number of passing attempts……..and also blames Alex for failed running plays on 3rd down…..for example….during the Giants game Dixon failed to convert a 3rd – 1…….according to Grant it was Alex fault…..
Great article Grant. As you have stated there are many reasons why Alex and our offense has been horrible on third down. To be fair poor coaching, poor play calling, lack of surrounding talent, lack of confidence, lack of team play and familiarity with the offensive play book has contributed to Alex’s poor 3rd down conversion %! However on the other hand, Alex has been also responsible for poor decision making, slow ball release and conservative play to contribute to one of the worst 3rd down efficiency offenses in the league.
As much as i love my niners and Alex since he is our QB, all this Aaron Rogers comparison to Alex Smith is a joke!!! Aaron Rogers is a world champion with a super bowl ring. Until Alex wins the big game and puts similar numbers no-one in the league is going to give him the create he deserves.
I agree with you Grant that the offensive line excuse is just plain bs, since many of the sacks may be caused by the QB holding the ball too long or not being able to extend the play. Our OL has not been great but we can not only blame the OL or the WR for the lack of 3rd down production!!! Football is a team sport and it will require for all 11 players to work together to produce however an elite QB will extend the play and make all other players look so much better, including the OL and the WR in some situations.
I truly believe Alex will continue to improve under Jim H and i wished we had Jim five years ago. GO NINERS and Alex
Alex was accurate on the deep pass, however in most instances it required just one read. He would resort to the check-off when a play broke down and if it was third down he came up short most of the time. So, what about the intermediate pass? It seems it was not happening for one reason or the other. If that part of the offense isn’t addressed Alex will be on the bench sooner rather than later.
Grant I don’t have a single doubt in my mind that Smith could lead the team to a Super Bowl victory.
Need I remind you that he was playing the Giants?
“and the Giants both had a monster pass rush”
And your assertion that Rodgers buys the time himself? You’ve got some serious hyperbole working for you bruh. He’s able to buy the time for himself because his Receivers can get separation and he’s willing to burn Defenses by running on them.
In case you weren’t watching last year, Smith does that too. Only with Sing and Nolan they didn’t want him doing that.
But look who Rodgers has for targets? Jermicheal Finnley? Jennings? Donald Driver?
Alex Smith would have gut you with a spoon to get those guys on the 49ers Offense to throw to.
Sometimes it’s not who you have protecting you, it’s about having consistent Receivers who you can trust and build chemistry with. Did you see those guys in the Division game? I could care less about the Giants “Monster Blitz”, guys dropping Passes that hit them in the hands doesn’t help any QB. Rodgers was still running on the Giants. Just like Smith did too.
If it weren’t for a guy returning Punts, Smith would have a Lombardi right now. Not a single doubt in my mind. The fact that you can’t find the room to give him the credit he deserves only shows you’re not looking at this in the proper perspective. Like or dislike the guy, I don’t care. But at least be reasonably truthful with your stance. He put up better numbers than Eli. Not a whole lot better but he did enough to Win the game. If it weren’t for two seriously stupid gaffs by Williams, Smith would be holding a Lombardi.
Couple that with Harbs, Roman and Baalke’s undercover mission to reel in Manning and then the slight to bring someone else in when they fail? Oh yeah you watch what dude does now. He’s not gonna fold like a cheap suit. But no way is Tolzien running the Offense in 2012 with nothing short of a roster full of broken QBs’ due to not shoring up an already piss poor Line.
Bad knowledge. Eli Manning saw far more pressure from the 49ers defense than smith did with the giants defense. Smith had a ton of time all game, eli just balled and played like the winner he is and alex was alex, a less than mediocre qb that folds under pressure and is afraid to let the ball go and make plays.
@PigSkin:
I guess we were watching two different games.
Claude watch it again…. I don’t like arguing on these blogs but it’s a fact our defense put FAR more pressure on Eli (and brees the game before) than the Giants put on alex. Matter of fact most “experts” league wide were praising the 49ers o line in the playoffs and throughout the year. Alex holds the ball longer than any qb in the game, grab a stop watch and time it next year if you don’t take my word for it.
@PigSkin:
No, I don’t take your word for it. We’ll just have to agree to disagree on this one.
Have fun trolling.
I’m just pointing out fact sounds like your trolling because your school girl crush on a bad qb has impacted your judgement. Everybody knows alex smith holds the ball too long and if you don’t you are a moron with blinders on. Give up watching football you are clearly not absorbing anything you are watching. Maybe quit drinking during games?
Trolling? Hater? Dude you are a nerd that doesn’t even know the true definition of the words. You alex smith lovers are a joke nationwide, you are a punchline to everybody with a shred of football knowledge. Learn football you clown, alex is an inaccurate passer and you are an inaccurate poster, a marriage made in heaven. Does alex’s wife know you are stalking her man?
Nerds rule the world jock.
Here are every third down conversion of Shaun hill during his niner tenure. Any and all excuse you bring should be left at the door because Shaun hill was under the exact same circumstance as Alex.
8-16
9-15
4-14
4-14
4-10
7-15
9-18
5-11
2-10
7-15
8-15
8-17
4-11
4-10
7-18
5-15
0-11
4-13
4-14
Totals: 103-262=39.3% slightly above average but 5% points above AS he had the same weapons same line same coach etc etc.
.
39.3 is good; Smith has never played that well on third down. Thanks for looking that up.
I’m going to preface this by saying I don’t think Troy Smith is a starting nfl qb but I am saying that alex isn’t either. Grant another statistic you might want to look up is Michael Crabtrees numbers with Troy Smith at qb vs Crabtree’s numbers with alex smith at qb. Off the top of my head I would bet Crabtree averaged about 75-80 yds 1 td per game with Troy and very bad average numbers with alex. So if Crabtree sucks why did he put up very good numbers with a mediocre qb like Troy Smith?
OK, this is where I’m getting confused.
I think everyone is arguing different sets of numbers in different timeframes. Apples and oranges. Starting to make some sense now.
What I’m interested in is what is smith’s conversion percentage for 2011?
Fooch is saying 40% and Grant is saying 28% – why is there such a big gap?
Color me troubled, there’s an accounting error here somewhere.
The only disclaimer I saw was that Fooch took some meaningless plays out (like victory formations or something, right?)
Pigskin,
Because when receivers are running free downfield, the only player Smith will attempt to throw to dometes is Vernon Davis. In addition to that, Troy Smith threw it diwn the field. Smith throws the ball sideways.
I need to go back and read that thing. I think I’m missing something with what Fooch is saying.
That’ll teach me to speed read! :P
it speaks to his limitations. 3rd down is a tough down, the defense usually knows you’re going to pass and the smoke and mirrors are gone, its about anticipation and making the throw, something smith struggles with unless he’s put in a back against the wall nothing to lose situation. Otherwise, he plays it conservative and doesn’t capitalize
I agree.
I agree to. This is exactly what the problem is.
I’d be more interested in knowing how the receivers rank in order to complete your assessment.
Michael Crabtree was tied for 13th in the NFC with 14 first down receptions on 3rd down. This number led the Niners
And there are 16 teams in the NFC.
So 14/16 is good then?
Nope. Not even close. Plus, he dropped a lot of passes. On all downs.
Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker don’t exist?
Grant
Until the playoffs, VD blew it more than not this past season. And DW minus the Detroit game winning TD…was he playing?
Point is Grant, our supposed “best” WR is 14th out of 16 teams in converting 3rd downs. And this does not count the times he dropped passes on 3rd down either.
Very well said.
I heard a report on sirius last year that was talking about VD not understanding the offense and was very frustrated with it thru 3/4ths of the season. And the truth be told, VD probably wasn’t the only one.
I would suspect that the coaches new this and hence the conservative play calling! I mean, who played more or better percentage style football than we did last year? Then, by the time we started knowing and understanding the offense, we ran out of recievers.
Some people have said that AS was hid behind a great defense but I believe the whole offense was. AS conversion percentage goes down when the coaches dont put him in a good situation or a low risk play. 3rd down was always conservative because we had the FG. Tough defense and field goals will win games in year one of this offense. I really don’t believe we’re gonna see that next year.
@DS, “he dropped a lot of passes. On all downs.”
Crabtree dropped only 7 of the 114 passes thrown to him. He also had 72 catches. What happened on the other 35 passes thrown to him? They missed the target….
@Jack
Does that include the 4 drops in the playoffs? You know the games that really matter. Because if not, it would be 11 drops and only 5 more catches. The numbers get way worse.
And JR didn’t drop 7 balls in over a decades worth of games. After his rookie year, he was perfect till late in his career after his knee injury.
Why don’t you go back and look up the stats of how often JR was targeted and how many catches he had. Because you know that any attempts not caught were on the QB missing the pass. Come back with that % and we’ll talk.
@DS,
I am only using regular season numbers because you can’t compare against the rest of the league if adding in playoff games.
I am not comparing Crabtree to Rice, just like you shouldn’t try comparing Smith to Montana. Those guys are the best ever, and Crabtree/Smith aren’t even close yet.
Instead I will compare him to his contemporaries. For example, Mike Wallace, the guy you want Crabtree dropped for. In 2011 he was targeted 114 times just like Crabtree and he dropped 6 of them.
As for the playoffs meaning everything, Grant’s point of Smith’s 3rd down woes was magnified with that 1-13 in the Championship game. 1-13 when it mattered most. By comparison, Manning threw the go ahead TD pass to Manningham on 3rd and long.
In that game, they were 1-12 converting 3rd downs with passes. Smith completed many of those, but they were checkdowns well short of the marker.
@jack
How many big plays did Wallace have? How many times did he make something from nothing? How many times did he force the defense to double him and single somebody else? How many great catches did Wallace have?
Then compare those numbers to MC. Please. Don’t try to use stats to compare MC to Wallace. You’re missing the point of what Wallace can do for the team vs. what MC does.
And, comparing AS to JM is the norm around here. Look at Grant’s articles. Yes. I know. He didn’t compare AS to JM. He compared him to Steve DeBerg. Something that is ludicrous. Especailly since Steve DeBerg never did anything near what AS did when he was a Niner.
And, why don’t you write more posts about the Niners defense folding on that third and long pass? Why don’t you blame the defense on that play? Nobody ever does because it is AS fault that EM completed that pass.
All you guys give a pass to everybody else. You say that we give a pass to AS all the time. Well, you give a pass to all other 51 players when they screw up as well.
I place blame on Justin Smith on that play. My favorite player. Why? Because it is his job to get pressure and pressure/sack the QB in a 3rd and long situation and he failed to do so. Justin Smith is the best. Therefore, I expect him to make plays a lot more than I expect somebody who is not the best to make plays.
Know something else? Justin Smith blames himself for that as well I am sure. He’s not blaming AS for it.
If the fans on this blog were players, this team would be the Raiders. Blaming others for not doing your job. Oh it’s AS fault that KW had those fumbles. It is AS fault that EM completed that pass. It is AS fault that the HOF QB and HOF WR said that the Niners WR’s were not getting open.
While you’re at it Jack, how many great sideline deep TD passes did EM throw in that game? AS had 1. EM had none. So, I can compare one play being made by AS/EMas well as you can. Fact is both QB’s threw for 2 TD’s and 0 Int’s. Fact is both failed to move the ball and do much with it. Especially in the 2nd half when games are won. Fact is the Niners best units stank it up and let down the team when they didn’t all year. ST with the 2 fumbles and the defense letting that 3rd and long into a TD.
Yeah. AS failed to make another comeback. But how many QB’s have ever had 2 comebacks in the same playoffs? God himself never did. The team lost that game Jack. Not AS. Write more posts blaming the other 51 players. They had just as much to do with the loss as AS.
@DS, Grant did not compare Smith to DeBerg.
Of course God never led 2 comebacks in the same playoffs. He was a wide receiver.
That was Jesus Jack.
: – )
And the opening sentence of Grant’s recent blog post:
“If Alex Smith is Jim Harbaugh’s Steve Deberg…”
If that isn’t comparison, what is?
@DS, That was Grant using a conditional sentence to get to the premise of his post.
He never compared AS to DeBerg.
@jack
Every writer knows how you open up your article sets the tone. Unless you end it by saying “Gotcha!” type thing. Which Grant did not.
And you are really splitting hairs even if you are right. There was no need at all to bring in AS and SD name into the same sentence, paragraph, article.
DS, That set up the whole premise for the debate between Johnson and Kaepernick. If you thought Grant was in any way comparing Smith to DeBerg you completely missed the point of the post.
Why have the sentence in there at all Jack? What purpose does it serve?
Why not state instead:
“Between CK and JJ, which one is most likely to take us to the promise land?”
See. No need to bring in AS. Much less Steve DeBerg.
I took some writing classes, and I know why Grant said what he said. Sorry if you didn’t take such classes. It would help you out in this case.
P.S. I am not the only person who was “confused”. Go back and take a look. And besides, Grant could have gone back and edited his post after seeing how many people thought he was making that comparison. I know he can. He did so with the title of the blog about how much money the Niners have under the salary cap. He made a choice not to make such an edit. And it was not a mistake, or an oversight.
Don’t argue with him, Jack – he took some writing classes.
Grant, that was a snide little barb!!!
Be careful, you might lose your #1 commenter. That would be really sad, for him and for all of us. And you might regret it. After all, he sits around all day, every day, and accounts for hundreds of comments a day.
Not that I’m complaining. I personally appreciate it when you keep this moron in line.
I am not a Smith apologist but this whole topic ignores the fact that for many of those years we had Neanderthal offensive philosophy that thought pound it inside the tackles on 1st, 2nd, and even 3rd downs proved we were tough even when there were 8-9 men in the box.
Is there a topic other than “Smith sucks” that ever comes out of the Cohn Zohn? Last time I checked we were 14-3 last year, including 4 or 5 come from behind wins, and a couple of fumbles short of the Super Bowl. And the QB that was involved in everyone of those wins was a guy you can’t wait to ship out of town, in favor of one of two unproven rookies or an undistinguished back-up from Tampa.
I hope and expect that Alex will have a great year, not because I am a Smith apologist but because I am a diehard 49er fan and he is our Quarterback. Anyone who saw the last 4 minutes of the New Orleans game and doesn’t think he is capable is simply blind.
..Grant also blames Alex for those running plays on 3rd down…..
100% behind everything you said TarHeel.
I think we need to go back and refer to Joe Montana’s comments about this very thing. Third down and impossible.
Down and distance, down and distance.
The video is on the CSN site.
Seems to me that Montana’s words are always regarded as golden. So if he’s actually defending Smith? In that case he must have been hit on the head too many times.
The O-line protection stats, by the way, have been poor (with a few exceptions) since the end of Steve Young’s career. As we all recall with the concussions, Young was getting tossed around a bit toward the end.
If you watch old tape (I tend to do this sometimes with nostalgic nerdiness,) Montana, for a great majority of his playing time had a pretty good O-line. All you have to do is watch the tape and see the pocket development – mostly excellent. Occasionally he would hold the ball entirely too long and get whacked (Leonard Marshall hit comes to mind) but there’s no real comparison between the Randy Cross group and recent O-lines – not even close. This season we started to see some good stuff, even though some blocking assignments were blown (Ravens game, whew! Rewatched the SoundFX version the other night.)
Not close on receivers either. I mentioned this yesterday but it bears repeating: John Taylor would have been a #1 receiver on any other team (even Jerry Rice mentions this when speaking of JT.) So our #1 and #2 were essentially elite receivers – top crop all the way. You watch any of those old games again, you’re going to see a HUGE difference.
High thrown balls? Not a problem.
Montana’s wobbly ducks? Not a problem.
Dropped passes? Not really.
Anyway, the main point is… Go to the CSNBA site and listen to what Joe Montana says about this very topic. Is Joe a crackpot? I don’t think so.
@Adam
You’ve referred back to this (JM talk/JT greatness/OL/JM actually missed some throws) a number of times. As have I and several others.
Doesn’t seem to matter though. I can’t believe Grant seems to have never read any of your many OL rank posts you did on a weekly basis. You explained all this stuff. Even bringing up AR and the Pack specifically.
Some people went to their graves thinking the world is flat even though the evidence that it is not was established as fact.
People don’t follow facts though. They follow their gut (world is flat group). And study after study has proven time and time again, that following your gut thinkers/thinking fails a whole lot more than people want to admit. Saw it on Charlie Rose one time.
Eh… it’s OK. Everyone has their own opinion. I don’t always agree with Grant (although a lot of times I do) but it’s his gig and he gets big props from me always. I think he does a fine job. I like that he sticks his opinions out there and backs them up with a good argument. No complaints from me on that front.
The O-line stats are what they are. Unfortunately it’s a proprietary “secret” formula (we don’t know EXACTLY how Stats computes this.) But, there are numbers out there back to Steve Young’s time and some of those team stats start to go down hill toward the end of his career.
What I wonder is if we’d had these conversations in the 90s would there have been a big pile up on Steve Young? QBs fault for X, Y and Z. I mean we’ve had bandwagon and fair weather fans forever so maybe so. Not sure.
One thing for sure is that Seiffert and Young inherited a pretty decent setup. As Seiffert says, “I just got out of the way, the players knew what to do.”
Don’t forget before JT was Freddie S.So yea JM had some sweet WR’s.
That’s all well and good when you’re calling games the traditional way. Name a single Head Coach that has had consistently called for a Pass more than a Run in games where we’re in the Lead in the 2nd Half?
Both Nolan and Sing didn’t. More often than not if this team was up by only a Touchdown in the 3rd, they’d get conservative and call more Run plays than Passing plays.
And we got a buttload of that last year too. The difference here being is that we have a good DC that won’t take his foot off the Opposing OC’s neck by getting conservative calling Zone Defenses where the DBs’ are lining up 10 yards off the ball. Oh but I forgot that Football was only about Offense. O_o
good point
ill49er you hit the nail on the head.
He hasn’t been in the same system for two years in a row. His OC calls too many runs. His offensive line doesn’t give him enough time. His wide receivers drop too many balls and can’t get separation. His wide receivers don’t take time to build chemistry with him like VD.
But it will all improve this year…..
lol
+2, well said Bay
You gonna finally line up for your Filet of Crow when he has another winning season?
Hate to disparage your honor here Bay, but somehow I doubt you would step up for your portion. ;)
You’re setting his bar at “winning season”? He’s playing for the best team 2-53. Scott Tolzien could lead the Niners to a winning season in ’12.
@Grant
The Super Bowl champions were 9-7, right? And the Pack in 2010 were a wildcard team as well. They were not great regular season teams at all.
Your argument is faltering here. As long as the Niners get to the playoffs and win 3 (or 4 games if wildcard) they are the champs. That is what matters.
Your argument is faltering!
How so Grant?
Your post at 7:20 implied that a winning season is not good enough for AS.
I brought up the last 2 Super Bowl winners as not having such great regular season records. Just get into the playoffs and go on your winning streak then, and we are champs, just like they did.
Where was the falter in that?
They didn’t get credit for being over .500 in the regular season – they got credit for winning the Super Bowl. That’s what Alex Smith needs to do.
Ok.
But only 1 team does that Grant. That means by your own rules that everybody else stank. And that the QB’s should all be replaced since it is their fault for not winning the Super Bowl each and every year. Especially in theirs first year with a new HC and new offensive philosophy.
And somehow I get the feeling that even if AS won the Super Bowl, he would be called the new Dilfer and that a lot of the stuff that has been said by you would not be radically different.
No matter what Smith does in ’12, it doesn’t change the fact that the Niners are the best team 2-53 in the league, and 10-20 QBs could lead them to a Super Bowl victory this season.
??? Tolzien? I know you just didn’t whip out Tolzien on me and expect me to be dazzled by a Preseason QB.
I have some more names we can trot out there that would do just as well.
Nate Davis?
Troy Smith?
Shaun Hill?
JT O’Sullivan?
Am I missing someone?
How about instead of trotting out a guy who has NO Official Regular Season Experience we stick to the facts.
I never said just a Win is where the bar is set. Fact.
Name one of the aforementioned names that took us to the NFC Championship game? None. Fact.
Every detractor liked to sing Hill’s praises. If you brought up his seriously WEAK arm(how anyone 6’4″ 250+ can’t consistently throw 25 yards or a spiral, is beyond me) that’s what they always said… “He’s got a Winning record…” Nvm, they don’t use Wins and Losses in Football.
Smith had crappy Coaching since Turner left the team. FACT. Never played under Martz tutelage. FACT.
C’mon man I know you’re only 24, but you’re not seriously gonna run a Practice warrior out here and tell us that he’s gonna be running this Offense in ’12. Are you? I’m seriously starting to question your qualifications that got you hired on at the PD. You have some big shoes to fill, I grant you that. But c’mon bro, Scott Tolzien? You’re better than this…
I hope you are anyway O_o
Hill could probably win 10 games on the Niners in ’12 – they’re that good 2-53 now. Tebow could win 10 game with them, too. Playing for these Niners is any QB’s dream. You’ve got the best defense, a very good running game and Vernon Davis, plus Moss/Mannningham/Crabtree plus the first round pick. It doesn’t get any better than that.
Great Grant
I love all those guys. But I don’t get why I can’t love our current starting QB as well, and why some have to find fault with the guy after a great year.
I swear, you guys would find fault with the 3 astronauts on Apollo 13 who had to navigate the ship back to earth without the computer, and the fact that they were slightly off target when making course adjustments, you would bash them.
Nothing less than the Lombardi Trophy is good enough. ANY year. As a Niner fan, you should know that.
“Nothing less than the Lombardi Trophy is good enough.”
As a Niner fan I’m perfectly happy making progress right now. We’ve been in the dumps since 2003.
Right now I will take what I can get.
“I love all those guys. But I don’t get why I can’t love our current starting QB as well, and why some have to find fault with the guy after a great year.”
Wow! That is right on point.
Thanks Adam
I don’t get why the fans have to be in one camp or the other about our starting QB.
Just because there is competition (like what JH said) between the players does not require that us fans be in some sort of competition as well.
I have liked every QB who wore a Niner uniform. I have cheered for them all to do well. Never once have I booed any Niner QB. Why would I? Why would I cheer for the guy to fail? If he does, my team loses. How does that make me happy?
When JM was QB, I cheered him on and supported him the whole time. When Steve Young came in, I cheered for him the whole time. Even when Joe was still on the team. Why? Because I want my team to do well. That includes the QB. When Garcia came in for Young, I cheered for him. I didn’t get on him like some fans did after he started to struggle. Why would I? Me booing the guy won’t make him better. If somebody booed me, I’d say “Screw you. You come on down and play and get killed.”
When Garcia was dropped (the only move I ever really disliked), I cheered for Rattay. I wanted him to play well. Then when we drafted AS, I cheered for him as well. Why? Because he is a Niner. I am a fan and I want him to do well. Then when JT O’Sullivan came in, I cheered for him to play well. Then Hill replaced JT and I wanted him to do well. When AS came back in in that Houston game, I cheered for him as well. And have not stopped since. When Nate Davis stated, I cheered for him. And when AS came back in, I cheered for him again. Yes I liked AS the whole time. But I also liked SY the whole time JM was here. And I never cheered/hoped Nate Davis played poorly to see AS back in there.
These people who try to call me “Smither”, they are not the fans of the team. I cheered for AS and all the QB’s who have started in his time here, and before. They only cheer for anybody not named AS. And that is not a fan. Not in my book. I am loyal to the team. I cheer for the team. I want my team to do well all the time. And that more than not requires the QB to do well. And I will cheer for him. No matter who he is (unless he is a horrible human being, then I won’t). But no Niner QB has been a horrible human being like Big Ben or Vick, so I have cheered them all.
Very simple. I don’t get why such a simple concept is so hard for so many to grasp.
Bay,
I’m glad you’re finally seeing things clearly, good for you!
Alex Smith needs 10 #1 overall draft picks to win a super bowl. Everything has to be perfect for Alex. That is why Alex is outta here.
[Yawn] Whatever, welcher.
Do you get as bored writing the same unimaginative tiresome crap in every comment as I get reading it?
“10 #1 overall draft picks…”
I would assume we already have 10 #1s on the team, no?
Adam.
They all need to be on offense to protect him and hide his flaws. Thank goodness he will be replaced soon. Coach can’t keep babysitting him.
He had Jimmy Raye for two straight seasons as OC, but it was jimmy rayes fault he told alex not to throw tds or win games. Nothing is alex smiths fault.
Jimmy Raye for 2 staright seasons might actually be worse than 6 OC in 7 seasons.out of the last 20 yrs that guy coached 2 seasons and was out of football the rest of the time.
what a sad reflection of what we were just a few years back no one would take our OC job we had to hire Raye …….wow let that sink in
Curious what the third down percentage was for the other quarterbacks during those seasons.
It would be better to extend the plays more but at the end of the day I’ll take the win-loss percentage of the 49′rs in 2011 over those other quarterbacks any day.
“other 49er qbs”
@Grant:
Now you’re just trolling those who have complained about your earlier posts. Do you think this reflects well on you?
I seriously doubt Grant cares about how his articles reflect on him, otherwise he would have stopped writing long ago, this post and his childish argument above about AR and AS show again that he would rather put out any article than take the time and care to research all the facets of an article he is writing, and a point he is trying to make. While this article shows about 50% effort he fails to take into account, OC changes, our lack of WR talent/depth, how defenses played us, how G-ro called 3rd down plays, how Singletary made 3rd downs impossible due to his lack of football knowledge, Injuries, midseason Qb changes, and the simple fact that until last year defenses KNEW what we were going to do every single 3rd down. Instead he seems to stick childishly to his “can you name an offensive linemen on the Packers”, I am 99% sure he had to look that up himself.
Other qbs on other teams have all the variables you mentioned but fans outside of san francisco call a spade a spade and don’t make excuses for the position that touches the ball every play on offense. Some of you guys must be related to alex. Jeez be objective he’s an 8 year vet and he’s proven not to be any good, niners brass have tried to replace him two straight off seasons, nobody else wanted him. Facts are facts alex smith is not a good qb, deal with it and be a real adult.
Claude,
Why don’t you go back into his blog and cut and paste something really bad about Grant! Maybe you could get him to resign out of guilt!
@23welcher:
Who said that I wanted Grant to resign? It’s his blog, and he can post whatever he wants. I just think he is capable of better work than this post.
It is not surprising that you object to the re-posting of your comments. Re-posting your words reveals your lying, welching and inability to judge football talent for everyone to see.
Claude,
Great job. Who cares what you think. Do you have any football insight? Like, why are the Niners getting rid of your lover soon??? You’re a joke. A negative on this blog. CUT AND PASTE !!
@23welcher:
You’re slipping, son. You forgot to call me a biotch.
We can debate whether I have any football insight, but there is no debate as to your being a welcher. It’s a proven fact.
And since you asked for a cut and paste, how about this one:
23jordan says:
September 20, 2011 at 8:55 am
I’ll stop posting here altogether if Alex Smith Is a 49er next year. Write that down and locknot in.
@claude
I would like your take on why so many here take issue with you copy/pasting.
I mean just about everybody does it. Yet some losers here keep harping on you like you are the only one who does it.
I know how I feel about it. I’d like to hear what you think if you don’t mind. Why do they target you when they should be targeting like 90%+ if they really dislike the copy/paste thing.
@DS:
I have no idea; you’d have to ask them.
My totally self-serving perspective is that some commenters (jordan, bay and ninermd) don’t like having their words thrown back at them in an irrefutable way. It makes it difficult for them to claim I misrepresented or distorted their words. It also gives them a retort to fling when they have no substantive response.
It also may have something to do with the fact that the practice tends to lengthen my comments.
Or it could be a fear of italics. I tried to explore that possibility, but no one would admit to being molested by his English teacher, so I dropped it.
But I really don’t know.
@Claude
“I have no idea; you’d have to ask them. ”
I have. They just copy/paste my quotes back at me.
: – )
Well i have to take it a step farther, and say really since before Smith was drafted we were bad on third downs. Whether Hill, O’Sullivan, Dilfer, and a few others. And it actually speaks volumes to why any of our recent QB’s have been bad on third down. Now not taking any of the blame away from Smith for his hand in the failed downs. I just noticed that we have always had a problem on third down. And not just that, but we used to always have 3rd and longs. And i’ll say we had more of those than 3rd and short. I mean didnt in the playoffs in two occasions we needed first downs after 1 yd, and still couldnt get it in.
Think it’s more concept and overall team execution, than just the fact that Smith isnt gettin it done on 3rd down. As an (offensive) team, we arent getting the big conversions.
WRONG. Hill and O’sullivan actually jumped the Niners 3rd down conversions up in 2008 while Smith was injured. Same team, same blockers same receivers.
Only improvement was QB…. See for yourself.
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct?date=2007-02-05
If I’m not mistaken Martz was the O.C. with a more aggressive offense ,could have something to do with it.
O’Sullivan was terrible but Shaun Hill has a knack for making plays. Look how good the Lions offense was with him(it’s way better with Stafford though). Also Martz’s downfield passing concepts are brilliant.
Hill? So Hill is so much better why isn’t he a Starter or even being considered when Teams are looking for a new QB? Did you SEE the turnover this year?
I have two words for why Hill has a better completion percentage. Ready?
Mike Martz.
Here are another two.
Short Passes.
You know as well as any 9er fan who’s paid attention to the team at all, that Hill threw maybe one deep ball a game and after that what’s his average Completion before YAC?
JTO’Sullivan? Dude has 5 games worth of work? Why would you even drag him into this fight. Dude is completely unarmed and you act like he’s better than Smith? Sad sad sad state of your dislike for Alex Smith when you drag a clown like JTO into an argument.
Do you remember the two words from above?
Did you not recall the Offense was abject garbage flambe before Smith got back on the field and kicked Hill to the curb? After several players went to Sing and petitioned for a chance to run a reasonable Offense did things get exciting again.
Of course that changed. Do you NOT see the correlation of ineptitude here? Sure the QB is on the field playing the game but when you have abject cluelessness on the sideline leading your team, you’re doomed to failure.
Yeah but a more disturbing fact is that in 2008 we were ranked (as a team) 22nd in points scored so we might have been converting 3rd downs but we weren’t going anywhere. Granted, we were slightly higher ranked (three spots, I believe) in total yards but it didn’t translate to points.
2011 we were ranked 11th in points. Yes, a ton of field goals but at least we were moving between the 20s. I’ll take the points over yards.
Anyone who doesn’t think that coaching and system have a ton to do with how this stuff comes out is dead wrong.
Look at the offensive and defensive ranks back to 2004 with Rattay. Terrible, some are in the negative numbers (0 being average.)
2011 was something we haven’t seen (and yes, granted, yards were soft) since Garcia’s last year (and Erickson’s first year, oddly enough) in 2003.
In a DOME grimey. In a Dome. You get Hill out in the environment he throws pies all day long. Shocking how they just seemed to hang “and came down like a Punt” in the Candlestick environment or anywhere there was anything more than a stiff breeze.
On the Zone I stated how you Defense a guy like Shaun Hill and sadly it played out exactly the way I said it would. I wouldn’t have minded a Winning Season over that span. I was so sick of seeing Ls’ on the scoreboard. But that’s not how things played out.
We FINALLY got a Winning Season and people want to chuck the baby out with the bath water.
I say let’s BUILD on the success. These guys finally had a taste of success, they won’t want to go back to eating cold stale excrement sandwiches. So why would we as fans want to interrupt the flow. Let’s see how it plays out before acting like QB is just like any other piece. That’s the most important piece on the field. I’m not down with all the rhetoric being thrown about like QB is the easiest position to play. Bull pucky!
im sure joe mont…, i mean josh johnson converts close to 100% of his 3rd downs…
Stat’s are mis-leading seeing how we ran a lot on 3rd down. We have as an offense struggled on 3rd and 1 and 2 in the run game as well. Something I feel Brandon Jacobs was brought in for.
I also agree that Alex is too gun-shy though as well. But with him being a cerebral QB i feel this will be fixed once the offense as a whole knows what it’s doing. People dont take into account that even Vernon Davis openly admitted to struggling with this offense for quite a while. Now that everyone should know what they are doing I think the numbers will increase this season.
No fair! You’re bringing truth into the debate. I call SHENANIGANS! :p
Grant,
I don’t understand why you are using the combined rushing and passing numbers when you could just use his passing numbers. Why make an argument that might be tainted by an ineffective rushing attack?
Please respect your readers enough to use stats that have context. If the statistics are supposed to reflect Smith’s success then why include running plays?
This.
Obviously a slow day and this is Grant’s attempt to get some clicks. Just throw out anything about Alex Smith (oh and throw in a Tebow reference to ad fuel to the fire) and its bound to get the lovers and haters into battle with the same old arguments ad nauseum. There are lies, damn lies and statistics…and as far as stats go, this one is really irrelevant. Way too many variables to pin on the QB. If anyone’s to blame look at the OC.
Cause he didn’t mean to reflect Smith’s success. That would be counter to his argument. ;)
Smith has a career losing record and horrible numbers for 8 years, what success? Wake up man your idol just isn’t any good. You are backing a lame horse that will never win the derby.
these numbers may be telling, but more telling would be analyzing the 3rd downs where smith is called upon to pass—take for example the giants playoff game, where anthony dixon failed to convert a 3rd and 1 run–is that smith’s fault?
Mark, I actually just wrote that a few minutes ago. Or if we have 3rd and longs, in which we’ve had more of those than 3rd and shorts. Like i said not taking anything away from Smith. It is tho a little funny when it seems like one version is looking at Smith with the glass half full, and the other, with the glass half empty.
That’s why these types of stats are team stats.
if i recall, with concern to the red zone, that smith’s number were actually very good in 2009 and 2010…the niners struggled in the red zone in 2011….is that on Smith, i.e. did he get worse in the red zone (hard to imagine given his improvement overall in 2011) or was the play calling a contributor?
@mark
Red zone offense is the hardest. And it is the last step to master. Not just for the QB, but for the OL and WR’s/TE/RB.
More than a few times, I saw AS throw the ball in no-mans land and the announcers asked “Why did he do that?” Then they looked at the replay, and saw that the receiver (not just WR) stopped running their route, so AS threw the ball where it was supposed to go. The receiver didn’t run to it, so it looks like the QB (AS) really sucks. He does not.
Redzone offense is hard. And in the WCO, it can take some time to master. God himself said so. To be patient and have some understanding before you go an blow off steam at the QB. This takes time.
And towards the end of they year, the Niners did improve their Red zone TD efficiency, and it showed in the NO game.
@DS
If both Flenner and Kendall Wright are there at 30, who’s your pick?
@Andrew
I have no idea. I don’t care for mock drafts at all. The only thing they can do is get you all up in a frenzy over a player, then if your team passes on him, you hate them for it. And any player they get instead of the one you had them getting is under the microscope for life.
Look at all the people who wanted AR over AS on this blog. A nice number of them (not all) are the same ones who think 13-3, NFC Title game OT loss getting 6TD’s -0 Int’s is bad and you can see where this can go.
Nope. I’ll just cheer for whomever the Niners pick. I am a Niner fan.
@ Andrew
Re: Fleener vs Wright. I think since we’ve already signed Manningham & Moss, I’d choose Fleener. Without those signings I would’ve gone with Wright’s ability to stretch things out. Wright will have less learning curve than most of the rooks, imo, so he’ll contribute almost as early as Fleener will.
Why are you posting about football DS if you don’t have a preference on who the niners draft, what kind of fan doesn’t care and doesn’t follow the college game? Instead of posting all day why don’t you learn the game of football so you have some substance in your argument. You sound like a deranged 12 year old.
I’m not worried about what Alex had done in the past on 3rd downs. I’m all about the NOW & see what he can do with a legitimate WR (Moss) who can Blow the Top Off a Secondary.
I expect a Transformation to a degree of what this Passing Game was from last year. Then we’ll see.
Unfortunately if Moss plays like he did his last year then Alex will still look like the scapegoat.
I just don’t know if Alex see 3 guys open is he going to choke because he has a hard time making up his mind and pulling the trigger, perhaps he does not have the pedigree to throw 300 yard games.
Does a 299 yards passing game against the Eagles count?
@Latino Heat,
Yes a 299 yard game should count because Alex needs to be on a curve, Ceddar that was pretty funny, you use the word choke, that is Alex middle name.
Or the 299 from the Saints game?
You know, AS led massive comebacks in both game.
I thought it was “Captain Checkdown”?
@Brody
I thought it was “Captain Checkdown”?
No. Silly. Joe Montana has not played football since Grant was a little kid. What does he have to do with the Niners present team?
: – )
Hell I would choke too if I saw 3 of our Receivers open last year.
Of course I’d be sobbing from sheer happiness that it happened at all. So I would say that I’m not the best guy for that job cause I can get pretty emotional at times. O_o
Alex Smith is a type of QB that rather hold on to the ball and take a sack than get an interception. He really doesn’t trust his receivers and I don’t blame him. JH had him on a short leash as well. I really hope this yr is different in the regard. Hope we get better production from the receivers and more passes near the end zone. The 2011 games shouldn’t of been that close if only we would of had better 3 down conversions. So it does matter in my point of view.
One,
The real deal us that smith doesn’t trust himself. He has confidence issues.
thanks to a dysfunctional system he was destroyed and lost his confidence. He plays great when he just plays football and does not care about making mistakes.
What are your other points Bay? You said…
“One,
The real deal us that Smith…”
And that’s it. Probably should have made your statement and left the bullet point out of the reply.
Now for me I have to say that I don’t see that Smith doesn’t trust himself. Dude had Touch, took chances deep, threw into coverage, avoided MANY Sacks and even had a few Pump Fakes. I think the kid is coming into his own. But of course I’m open minded and am willing to give every player on this team the BoD. Even 15. ;)
He has no confidence his body language has “meek” written all over it. He’s not in pop warner, you can’t blame lack of confidence on others he is a grown man you either have confidence or you don’t, he doesn’t. Alex is inaccurate and plays very very scared.
Grant you already know the answers to the problem. They have been well documented by many people here. Its all AS fault no question about it. They will point out the recievers always get open, never drop balls, the blocking is great, the play calling is beyond reproach, and of course AS doesnt put in the time for team chemsitry, his throws are too high, too low, too wide, too hard, too soft. He lacks self confidence, not a leader and on and on and on. We have heard all this before just about every friging day . Cant you find something else to post. There are a lot of interesting things going on besides AS and his faults.
I just said why the title?
You forgot “Has Small hands”. ;)
Sorry Cead forgot that one
Why not name it “Niners issues on 3rd down”?
If you point out one player, do you have the stats to show that it was AS fault when a receiver dropped a ball, when they ran the ball, and when the Niners faced 3rd and long? And the frequency AS was put in those situations? What was the play selection was on 1st and 2nd down to put the Niners and consequently AS in a tough 3rd and long? If it was two runs, then a pass, how could any QB be blamed for 3rd and long? If the QB was pressured before setting his back foot on one of the pass attempts on 1st and 2nd how fair is it to blame the QB for not making good on that pass attempt for the 3rd and long attempt?
I realize your post actually goes into some of the detail, but the title? Why?
It goes without saying that if a team was bad on 3rd down, the QB has some part in that. I don’t understand the need to point the finger at a guy though. It is just as accuarate to title it “Ted Ginn’s problems on third down. Or MC’s problems on third down.”
No team is good facing 3rd and long. Only the Saints were. Until they played a good defense. Us. Then their numbers didn’t look too different from those of AS/Niners/everybody else in 3rd and long. I think that speaks volumes more so than blaming the QB for playing so poorly. Maybe teams who converted 3rd downs (especially 3rd and long) played defenses which were not very good more than not.
And which good defense did NO play last year? Texans? The Texans are good, but not as good as their ranking. They did not play Baltimore or the Steelers like we did. They played Chicago, but only after they lost their starting RB and QB, so that team was toast after that. Nope. The Saints played a lot of bad defenses or average defenses. And no (maybe 1) great defense. The schedule also played into their hands rather nicely. See for yourself.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/no/year/2011
Compare that to the Niners schedule. Also consider the Niners division and their quality defenses and that the Niners played 5 of their last 8 games against the division when their defenses were really rolling. Which defense in the NFC South is anywhere near as good as the Seahawks and Cards and our own? Also consider the multiple trips to the east coast, and compare that to the Saints visits in terms of mileage. Defense travels well. Offenses, not so much.
Maybe he can be taught. The key to be successful is being successful on first and second downs. They call it staying on schedule.
Because it’s not as dramatic, and perhaps more so show the ignorance on his part. Grant doesn’t exactly appear to know very much about football. He needs to do more of those insight stories he does so well. This other stuff needs a — for comic value only — tag. Reader beware.
Heck, Grant probably still thinks Alex was betrayed.
I’ll take $8 million for betrayal. I’ve been betrayed and been paid zilch for it.
And I think AS will learn. Now that he has a single teaching philosophy to learn from, he can really excel. I don’t care who you are. If your teachers and their philosophies on how to do things change so dramatically in whatever subject you are learning, you will fail and look to outsiders that you suck a lot.
Fact of the matter is though, AS was improving and getting better even before JH. Now with that teacher, he can show what he can do.
DS, dear, I don’t have eight million dollars, but I would like to hear the story of how your were betrayed and not paid anything for it.
It’s called life Max.
And, maybe one day I can tell you my story and you can write it and we can both earn $8 million in book/movie/TV shows.
I’m all ears!
actually that is a good point,,,moss was picked up to have more success on 1st and 2nd downs and mitigate 3rd down situations….
Some good points but its the average ranking in the high 20′s that is an issue. Do you think that if Aaron Rodgers or Payton Manning were in that offense they would not have improved it at least some. I’m not saying it would be a complete turn around but I definitely think an improvement is logical.
I don’t think PM or AR are cool headed enough to have taken all the crap AS has (Nolan, Sing, media, etc.) and remain a Niner.
Both of those QB’s would have left a long time ago. AS did not.
So I think it is a mute point. I don’t think any QB would have stayed here except for AS. (I mean would you?) And it has nothing to do with money. AS is a rich man who majored in economics I believe. He does not need football, or be one of the many pro athletes who files for bankruptcy less than a decade after retiring from a sport after making millions.
AS is here because he wants to be here.
Bs,
We will never know because AR and PM are elite QBs. Your idol is weak and whack!
Welcher boy
Welcher boy
Welcher boy
Welcher boy
What is your dilemma is life? Your terminal illness is making you one of those mean people instead of one of those people who try to live like they always wanted too and be nice to other people.
@DS,
” I don’t think PM or AR are cool headed enough to have taken all the crap AS has (Nolan, Sing, media, etc.) and remain a Niner”
They would not of been taking the crap because PM and AR are going into the Hall of Fame, your guy will be holding a clip board some where else but not with the Niners.
Neal disagrees.
Now I know I am right.
Okay, let’s do this again.
There are 3rd downs and then there are 3rd downs. You are taking a SIMPLISTIC look at the statistics without applying football context.
The 49ers have had one of the worst offenses in the league for quite some time. Usually ranking in the mid to lower 20′s. An adept play caller knows that 3rd and 3 is vastly different than 3rd and 7. What that means is FIRST AND SECOND DOWN IS JUST AS MUCH OR MORE IMPORTANT THAN THIRD DOWN. The Niners are a power running team, this has been true from the Nolan time (with a brief break under Martz…which Alex didn’t play) and continues under Harbaugh. What that means is that the power run game sets up the pass game. Harbaugh/Roman’s Offense not West Coast Offensive Philosophy and Strategy ( which traditionally has been pass to set up the run) it’s WCO Tactics: setting up match up advantages and setting the passing game to timing. So what this means is THAT IT’S THE RUN GAME THAT IS SETTING UP THE THIRD AND LONG SITUATIONS. We all loved those power run moments where Gore rushed for 100+ yards at a time. But if you think back, how many times did the Niner’s run game get shut down? Defensive Opponents stacked the box and even began to shutdown the jumbo personnel packages near the last quarter of the season. The offense isn’t PHILOSOPHICALLY balanced. Meaning very rarely if ever will Harbaugh/Roman lead with the passing attack. That means from a strategic and tactical standpoint the opposing defense has the upper hand to stop the run; maintain gap control, never mind the QB, read the offensive line’s blocking schemes (this was countered at times later in the year by running counter trap plays to the weak side). But it also PUTS THE OFFENSE AT A DISADVANTAGE ON THIRD DOWN BECAUSE IT’S THIRD AND LONG. Have you ever heard the term “pinning your ears back”. It’s a D line call “ears! ears! ears” that usually is made when someone on the front seven reads that it’s a pass play. In third and long it’s always an “ears” play where the defensive line no longer cares about gap control and just rushes the passer. And in 3rd and long, the QB must spend enough time in the pocket, in order for the routes down field to get open (remember this is a timing offense). So then we come to the specific problems on those third down pass plays.
Part of it is Alex’s fault:
He obviously at times is a little slow to read coverages and find his receivers.
As a result he can hold the ball too long and take a sack.
Or he throws the ball to the underneath receiver (“check down”) that results in 4th down.
HOWEVER
More often than not sacks came because either miscommunication by the Offensive line or they were simply beaten one on one. I’d say 2/3 of the sacks were the line’s fault and about a 1/3 are Smith’s fault of which much of the blame comes from being put in 3rd and long in the first place.
It is however NOT a case of reading the blitz by Smith. SMITH’S STATS ACTUALLY IMPROVE AGAINST THE BLITZ. In fact the New Orleans game is a perfect example of Smith beating the blitz while they stupidly kept leaving Vernon one on one against a slow footed safety or linebacker.
Much blame can be pointed at the putrid state of the Niner’s receiving corp. Alex never had much of a rapport with his Wideouts. In fact his best rapport was with Morgan. Simply put, the receivers just didn’t get open or didn’t run the proper routes. Remember they kept trying to get Braylon Edwards on the field? All to often we saw balls go out to receivers that were not in the right position. Remember it’s a precision timing passing game. Alex may still not be the most accurate deep ball thrower but he appears to be decent in the middle of the field and there were far too many times his receivers were just not in the right place. And you can say Smith isn’t always the most accurate QB, but the guy knows his offense and probably knows where his receivers should be.
The question is if another QB could have done better at converting those 3rd downs in Alex’s place? Yes those elite quick reading decision makers like Peyton, Brady, Rodgers and Brees could probably sit back and surgically strike by finding the hole in coverage in a blink. But only a handful of QB’s in the league can do that. The other 27 or so teams need to make do with above average, average and below average QB play AND NOT CONSTANTLY GET STUCK IN 3RD AND LONG.
“Smith isn’t always the most accurate QB”
Well, I’m playing on words a little bit here, but only one QB is the most accurate. So, all others fail if one has this requirement of their QB.
For whatever faults AS had last year, 28 other teams QB’s failed to get their team as far as AS did. Your sack numbers sound about right. Of course, I’d say those numbers are right for any QB. I have never seen a team where the QB was never at fault for a sack. People act like they have seen it. They have not. Because it has never/nor will ever happen.
Overall, nice post. Some losers here will complain about its length. Screw them though. They have problems reading anything more advanced than picture books. Good posts often require words to describe thoughts, and yours did. Well done!
BS,
My goodness. You post some of tge dumbest crap on this blog. Time for another nap! Please give us a break for a couple of decades!
Nice post, Emperor. Rational, logical, fair, balanced. Pretty accurate, too, from what I’ve seen (though I was watching the New Orleans game again last night [thank you, iTunes!], and I was impressed by a couple of long throws Alex made to Vernon Davis. RIGHT on the money–in fact, the announcer compared it to Brees’ incredibly accurate 2nd TD pass. I think Alex’s ability on that scale is yet to be determined. I’m hoping Mr. Moss and Mr. Manningham will add to what Mr. Davis has demonstrated).
And I hadn’t considered it, but you’re right: There is a BIG difference between Harbaugh’s O and the West Coast, and it’s as you said. Thanks for the insight.
Great assessment, once again a casual poster does a better job than Cohn, the one thing that no one seems to take into account is that JH wanted to limit turnovers and AS knew that, as a philosophy the Niners would rather take a sack and let ST and Defense take over than have Smith Force a throw and get it picked off, this is a very important element to Smiths 3rd down conversion rate, so obviously Grant doesn’t mention it at all.
Is that you coach? Well put, and AS will start making those quick surgical throws that you describe the others making in 2012… As will finally have the luxury of getting comfortable, understanding, dissecting, an unconsciously knowing his offense like the other QB’s that you mention above. Can’t wait to see it, so all this white noise will stop… Oh and if AS wins a Super bowl, does he get to go to the Hall of Fame like some have anointed AR to?
Smith plays scared and always will. he will throw away a ball unless the wr is totally open. He does this consistently on third down. As the saying goes he does not play to win, but plays not to lose. His stats may look good but Brady Eli Brees, Montana, Farve, Young all threw int’s on their way to SB’s.
Uh ha…
Alex sure played scared in the Saint Playoff Game didn’t he?
Your Take is Lame.
If even one DL guy came running at you, you’d turn tail and run.
Loser fool. Think before you type.
good point niner.
I’ve watched the entire 49er-Saints game several times and you can say whatever you will about Alex and his faults but for that final 6 minutes he was magical.
While one could say the play-calling is too conservative, I think it shows how much faith the coaching staff truly has in Alex Smith. They keep saying publicly how great he is, but then their contract offer, their flirtation with Peyton Manning, and their signing of Josh Johnson says something different.
I think over time, the stats don’t lie. It confirms what we all know: Alex will never have the mentality to be a “put the game” on his shoulders kind of guy – even if he succeeds sometimes when he’s forced into that position late in games. It’s out of his comfort zone, and he’s a basically conservative player who looks for his comfort zone.
One of the best persons who has ever donned a Niner uniform, and I still root for him, but in the end I think it will be someone else who ascends to the top of the mountain.
Could Smith being conservative be because of the lack of talent he had on day one and he had to play that way for years with the coaching staff not seeing they needed play makers?
If you look at all the players contract minus Willis and Davis the contracts are not huge numbers.
I think the contract offer argument is invalid. No matter how much the Niners valued Alex as their starting QB, why pay anything more than they have to for him?
Trying to sign a future hall of famer is not an insult it’s just trying to upgrade. They can have all the confidence in the world in Alex but if something better comes along…then all bets are off. Manning was that rare guarantee of something better. That’s no slap to Alex.
Johnson is just another talented guy they signed. It doesn’t mean anything. They’d have signed him regardless of the situation of the starting QB. Harbaugh loves competition.
You know I am not a Smith follower. I am a Niners fan. Here is what I don’t get about this article. If this article is to point out how bad Smith is at 3rd downs why is the percentage in this article based off the entire offense. If your gonna point out something about somebody maybe you should do the percentages based off the particular players passes.
On third downs? He’s Alex Wiff…always has been,under all coaches.
I wonder when Harbaugh will get that blockbuster trade for a great QB.. or trade up to RG3?
Strange that last year-A.Smith was better in the clutch on 4th down then 3rd..so,I.E. Harbagh should always go for it on fourth down,making third down failures worthless. Its simple math.
Strange that last year-A.Smith was better in the clutch on 4th down then 3rd..so,I.E. Harbagh should always go for it on fourth down,making third down failures worthless. Its simple math.
@Stan
How about you and me find way to do two things during home games.
1. Make sure the score board is always showing the Niners are losing. Then JH will let AS throw and show his real skill.
2. Just have the down remain to show 4th. Even if it is not.
You can do one, I’ll do the other. What do you say?
Then I guess you’ll be wondering for a long time then.
Sounds like a plan..the Alex mind will never figure it out!
Super Stan, you are a genious!!! Saw this earlier and thought you might be interested.
http://blog.49ers.com/2012/03/16/buy-tickets-for-gold-rush-finals/
I believe Smith deserves a fair share of blame but I don’t think it’s fair to squarely put the blame on him.
I think we lead the league in chickening out when it came to play calling on 3rd downs.
Also VD who should be the money on 3rd downs really didn’t come on till late in the season.
This season we should get a better feel where Smith is at on 3rd downs. Everyone should be comfortable in the offense and the weapons are better so there shouldn’t be any reason to not have more success on 3rd down this year.
This is a really good post. If i may so suggest, stick to these well thought out posts and stay away from the polarizing stuff. It is your blog though so obviously you can and will do as you wish.
Now like many people have said this does speak to obviously limitations in AS play thus far. Even when run plays are called on third down it speaks to what the coaches think AS can do in that given situation. This is an area where he needs to drastically improve. Not that it is all his fault though as Grant stated the receivers and the line have to do their part too.
Dude what planet are you from? Stay away from the polarizing stuff? Anything Alex related is polarizing and the headline blaming him for what’s wrong with the Offense is just a baiting the fanatics.
BTW Using the stats like this – without context-is a hugely amateur move. The real stats would have taken a few more minutes to get, but it would have made a much stronger argument.
Which stats? Could you expand on this? I’d be interested to see them.
well to start you should look up STats LLC (google it) and look up the 3rd down passing stats. That would be a great start. Look for Smith’s individual passing percentages on different types of third downs. Then you would need to see the Sacks of under 2.5 seconds from football outsiders, and then probably the drops on third downs etc. Once you have all those stats you would get a better idea, but still would need to see the plays themselves to see if people were open, ran the correct routes etc.
Obviously that is not all realistic, but the third down passing stats would be a minimum of professionalism in my opinion.
Here’s the more accurate stats. pretty much shows the same results. Also note that these are NFC only as Alex didn’t rank top 20 in NFL.
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFC&type=&rank=098&year=
Our third down woes have been a 3 headed monster for the past few years and Alex is not the only one to blame here.
Lot’s examine the root causes for the 3rd down struggles:
1. The Niners OL are guilty of giving up a lot of “quick” sacks meaning pressure right up the gut. Our RG position has been horrible with the much overrated Adam Snyder starting last year. This is a definite need to fill in the draft. Until Alex gets some more time, he doesn’t have time to deliver a quality throw.
2. Both Josh Morgan and Michael Crabtree stuggle to get fast separation which is needed for converting 3rd downs. Morgan is gone. MC needs to work on his short routes and getting out of his stance faster. Having Moss and Manningham should help us in this area.
3. Alex is well…………Alex. He still does not trust his receivers and won’t make the throw unless his target is open. Much like the toss he made to Vernon in the playoffs against the Saints, he needs to learn how to throw to a spot and trust his recievers to be there for the catch.
Will he ever be able to make these throws on a consistant basis? Probably not because it’s not Alex’s nature. It’s obvious that he’d rather take the sack and put the onus on our stellar defense then throw an interception.
That said, I think JH will demand that Alex unleash his abilities a bit more. Hold on because it will be interesting….
#3…What receivers? Perennial superstars like Brett Swain or a #3 masquerading as a #1 ala Crabtree, hands of stone Ginn? Let’s face it, I wouldn’t trust that group either. Put Green Bay’s WR corp on the Niners and I bet Alex would all of a sudden be great. If Moss shows up motivated and can still run a 4.4, and Manningham plays well maybe we will have the WR’s to see improvement in the RZ and on 3rd down.
It’s a valid point! Can’t argue with you. This years draft is stacked with talented wide outs. We could still grab Fleener, a solid RG and still have a decent selection of WRs in the 3rd round. Obviously it’s time to focus on receivers. The run game becomes much more effective when the defense has to account for threats at WR. Gets the safeties out of the box etc.
To begin with, I don’t think it is fair to use pre Harbaugh numbers when judging Alex Smith. We all know the story of the revolving door OCs. He was a rookie under McCarthy, did OK under Turner, was injured the year Martz was here. His other years were wasted under Hostler and Raye.
Last year (his first under Harbaugh) Smith threw just 5 interceptions in 445 attempts. An other worldly 1.1 int %. There were only 4 QBs with and int% under 2.0 (Smith, Rodgers, Bradford, Romo). I believe the low 3rd down completion rate is directly tied to the low int% number. Smith was asked by Harbaugh not to take chances and he did as asked. It is hard to argue with the results (13-3 and a trip to the NFC Championship game).
I believe with a full training camp in the Harbaugh system, Alex will be better on 3rd downs without significantly higher int%. I am hoping for a 3rd down conversion rate of about 38 – 40%, with the int% still below 2. That will be fantastic.
Grant: Can you tell us what the third down conversion rate was for the Rodgers, Bradford, and Romo. It would be interesting to see if the correlation between low 3rd down conversion and low int% holds up.
Good point about judging Alex on the Pre-Harbaugh Era.
Like I said before it’s about the NOW. We’ll see
2011 third down conversion rates: Rodgers: 48%; Romo: 40%; Bradford 29%.
And who made the title game? And who did not make the playoffs (Romo, Bradford did not)? And who looked God awful despite the refs trying their best to help him out in the playoffs (AR)?
Only 1 Grant. That means more than your 3rd down ranking.
P.S. Bradford is a really bad choice. He didn’t even play most of the year. He gets an Incomplete. Just like you should give AS in year 3 and 4.
Actually Bradford looks very promising. DS do you think if the 49ers had a better 3rd down completion percentage they might have gone to the super bowl? If they had completed their 3rd down in overtime instead of going 3 and out the Williams fumble might have never of happened.
@tutomate
I am not as high on Bradford as others are. Not hating on the guy at all. Except for the fact that he plays for the Rams who used to play in LA and if you know anything about/or live in N. CA you know that we hate LA.
It is my blood to hate anybody on the Rams. No real reason behind it besides that.
That game was full of a lot of what ifs.
The biggest one to me as the game unfolded was when DG injured TB. TB was our best CB that day. He was dominating. Had DG not done that, we would
1. Likely have gotten that TO that we depend on so deeply to win games all year long.
2. Score some points right there, making any OT errors meaningless
3. TB (I think) does not let his guy get open on that 3rd and long TD pass following the first KW fumble. If that happens, we hold them to a FG right there, and if everything else stayed the same, we win.
I can’t say for certain that converting that 1 3rd down would have won the game. Afterall, we were far from scoring, and may have had to punt after that one conversion anyway.
I can say for certain that DG injuring TB did cost us the game. I was not worried about anything else that happened in that game. Not even that first KW fumble. But I was yelling and screaming for TB to get up. The only time I worried all year long in fact. That hit was huge. I knew we had a full quarter or so left to play and EM had enough weapons to make us pay dearly for losing our #2 CB and our best player in the secondary that day. And he did.
Hostler and Raye would make T Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers bad too.
What about his stats under Mike McCarthy who won a superbowl with the packers 1 td 11 ints 11 fumbles on the season. How come a scrub like Tim Ratay put up far better numbers with a sub par offense? I know it’s not alex’s fault it’s….. Insert Excuse Here.
How come we never assume the playcalling was like it was from previous coordinators because those guys knew who they were working with? Harbaugh dummies down his offense the same way with Smith and Smith didn’t turn the ball over with him. He turned it over with the other coordinators. Maybe they made their offenses conservative because they knew the limitations of the QB??
Good article !! Very informative and thought provoking. . .
Grant,
I told you the Smithers were coming for you. You packing heat? Lol
He doesn’t need heat, most smithers pack purses.
Lmao!!!
Rick, in a prior comment mentioned this, but it bears repeating.
You can’t simply look at 3rd down conversion rate in isolation. On many 3rd downs (especially 3rd and long with defences keying on the pass), avoiding the game changing turnover is paramount. Harbaugh’s coaching/play-calling philososophy appears to be taking this to an extreme (great D and special teams….so it’s a good plan. See record, 13-3).
Smith’s interception rate last year was absolutely incredible, astounding, you name it. He certainly coulda thrown more balls up there, and increased his completion %, yardage, and 3rd down conversion %, but at a cost of more turnovers.
You’ve gotta look at the whole picture, which includes, under Harbaugh at least, a HUGE emphasis on being careful with the ball.
I think it’s fair saying 49ers’ 3rd down problems are Alex Smith’s problems. After all, he started every 2011 game and, in the same way, the 49ers’ 14-4 record is regarded as Alex Smith’s 14-4 record.
Most people attribute the record to the Defense.
Yes, part of the problem was Alex Smith, but the 49ers offense as a whole was pretty bad on 3rd downs. Other contributing factors were:
- Lack of wide receivers. On some plays last year, the 49ers actually had no receiver sets on first and ten.
- Extremely conservative play calling.
- Alex Smith was instructed to take sacks rather then risky throws. (This should change with Moss and Manningham)
- Our huge, highly drafted, power oriented offensive line ironically has a lousy push on 3rd and short. Strangely, these hulks do pulling plays and getting to the 2nd level much better then they drive block.
- Gore was and will be banged up.
- Our tight ends are fantastic, but I don’t see Vernon getting those cheapie 6 yard curls on soft spots in the zone. It’s always a longer seem route. Hoping Fleener (if drafted) can resolve that.
- Other then Vernon, we had very little “above the pad level” catching abilities from all skill positions. Moss, Manningham and draftee-to-be-named should help.
#12 in NFC on 3rd down passing conversions, #23 overall.
#16 in NFC on 3rd and <3 yards, #32 overall.
#11 in NFC on 3rd and 3-7 yards, #23 overall.
#11 in NFC on 3rd and 8+ yards, #20 overall.
#12 in % First Downs/Attempt, #20 overall.
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&type=&rank=098&year=
Thanks so much.
No problem.
Those stats actually show we did better when forced to throw on longer down/distance. The real disaster is on the 3rd & short which is usually a run up the gut.
Better, but still bad.
That simply isn’t true. Smith was #32 in the NFL on 3rd and short passing conversions. The running game was ranked #7 in the NFL on 3rd down conversion %, which is very good.
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct
Tell ‘em!
“Measure twice, cut once.”
Big P,
Ruh roah! I don’t think the Smithers are going to like your stats!
Nice job BigP, and very eye opening. It seems like Smith struggled on short passes on 3rd down and it’s hard to understand why that would be so. Rushing the throw too often?
Teamrankings is a great site but… all this tells us is that the team has those miserable 3rd down passing stats.
What responsibility do the receivers have in this?
I mean you cannot look at Jerry Rice’s 3rd year numbers and Crabs’ 3rd year numbers and see much in common. Rice had fewer catches and nearly 5 more yards per catch. There’s a striking difference between the two era’s #1 receivers. Sorry, it is what it is. Rice had fewer catches and more total yards. We just didn’t have the horsepower at wideout, didn’t have the YAC production.
Look, no one is saying Smith is perfect. Personally I’d like to see him get his poor throws under 10% of total attempts (it’s just over 14% now.) I can’t find older historic numbers on Montana to Rattay but it would be interesting to see that number. 44 sacks taken isn’t great either. Montana’s highest in a season I believe was 35 or 36. The O-line and receivers have some responsibility there as well, but however you slice it that number needs to be cleaned up.
Drops and passes defensed are nearly 13% of total attempts. That’s also an area that they’re obviously trying to clean up by bringing in new receivers. Total all that of course gives you the inverse number of the completion percentage minus some throwaways and balls batted down at the line.
Over 61% comp rate is a personal best for Smith, it isn’t horrible by any means but if he can gain another 2 or 3 points? That’s going to make a big difference this season. Granted he’ll be in 1980s Montana range (63% or so lifetime) but Harbaugh is showing that we can play 80s football in the modern pass-first NFL.
It’s a team sport, gentlemen. Lot’s of moving pieces contribute to the whole. Overall though, 2011 was the best season since 2003. We should be grateful we had a winning season, lot’s to be hopeful for moving forward.
Do the excuses for Alex’s poor play on 3rd down ever end. He was the worst in the NFL on 3rd and short. Period end of story. Stop making excuses for this guy. If you want to say the 9ers are trying to clean up the receiver play by bringing in new receivers then you must also acknowledge the 9ers are trying to clean up the QB play by bringing in QB’s. Manning is undeniably better than Smith and Josh Johnson could very well push Smith for the starting job. Either way, the 9ers recognize they need better QB play. Perhaps you should recognize that as well, Adam.
Nice try though Adam!
@BigP
Smith was #32 in the NFL on 3rd and short passing conversions…
Sure. But look at the sample size, many are under 10 throws. Look at 3rd and long, Smith actually had better numbers than Flacco, Sanchez, Hasselback, Manning just to name a few. So what?
The running game was ranked #7 in the NFL on 3rd down conversion %, which is very good.
Where does it say it was all 3rd down runs? Maybe I missed it. Your “3rd down conversion %”, where did you see that?
I remember they broke out some long runs when it was 1st and 2nd downs to gain 1st downs.
@Grant
“Tell ‘em!”
Yes. Do tell us. LOL
“Perhaps you should recognize that as well, Adam.”
I recognize it all the time.
Grant,
Go take a look at this:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2012/2/10/2789959/niners-3rd-downs-it-aint-pretty-any-way-you-slice-it
The passing coversion was actually better than running. So… gore sucks too…right? Or maybe coaching..since they kept slamming the ball on 3rd and 4-6 rather than let Alex do his thing?
I think the easy answer is that you can’t put this on any one player.
How often does running really work on third down?
you’re the journalist…what is the answer?
Well, just a guess.
But running on 3rd and short (and that is what we did on that one drive in the title game when Dixon couldn’t keep from tripping) is generally a good thing Grant.
Running on 3rd and 18 (which we did this year as well) is likely not to net you a first down. And that happnened at least once a game or so. Running on 3rd and forever. So, please keep that in mind when you blame AS for not handing the ball off better to allow FG to run for the first down. Because it is AS fault for failing on those 3rd down conversions as well.
And how often does it really work when teams stack the box against us because we cant throw?
How often do teams stack the box when they are having to double a WR every time?
JM did not face a lot of stacked boxes when JR came around. Made life better for everybody.
“How often does running really work on third down?”
3 of 35 opportunities according to Fooch.
Not good. I guess that explains Brandon Jacobs.
Not that the 40% passing conversion is all that great either but that run number is atrocious.
Thanks for looking that up, Adam.
Not a problem.
Do we know if Fooch is actually correct?
If that’s the case, Shaun Hill’s conversion rate was .17% better than Smith’s? Sounds like whoever is pushing the “Hill was better” argument below is correct by almost two tenths of a percent. :P
If Fooch is correct, I would think we should all be a bit more concerned with the 3 out of 35 rushing attempts as opposed to a 40% passing conversion rate, no?
Like I said before 40% isn’t great, let’s try to get to 50% this year! :P The rushing thing though, if correct, is hideous.
Converting 40 percent of third downs is above average in the NFL. Obviously, offenses want to minimize the number of third downs they face (the Packers and the Pats had the least third downs in ’11), but they always have around 10 at least, and they’ve got to produce (The Packers and the Patriots both converted at a rate in the high 40s).
Joe Montana was always good on third down. Shaun Hill statistically was good on that down, too. He had limitations, but he also had strengths and 3rd down was a big one.
Alex Smith has strengths and weaknesses – and I think 3rd down is and will always be his Achilles heel. He converts at a terrible 33% rate for his career. He’ll never win three consecutive playoff games if he can’t consistently execute on third down.
And how often does it really work when teams stack the box against us because we cant throw?
You mean because we dont have any one to respect on the outside!
GC, I don’t believe you answered Adam’s quest regarding 3 0f 35 on runs!
*question*
Montana, that should change this year, but other than VD, there was no one that can consistently get separation on the outside.
Hofer, On 3rd < 3, Gore converted 46.2% (6/13). Overall on 3rd down, Gore converted 23.3% (7/30), and Hunter was 21.4% (3/14).
The 46.2% with < 3 yards to go is very good considering that the defense often knew we would be running in those situations. As for the overall number being so low, that reflects on our inability to stretch the field and force teams to get 8 out of the box.
Hopefully the acquisitions that have been made at receiver will pan out, and the offense can be more dangerous in 2012.
@Jak:
Careful there with context and actual facts. People around here resent it when you bring those things to the table.
Grant:
As I said in a post in your last blog entry,why does it seem that 3 out of 4 of the subjects of your blogs are about Alex ? (maybe after this one it went up to 4 out of 5 ?). I know you get the most hits on the Alex subject because fans are so passionate about their QB and the extra site hits makesyour bosses happy,but please get out of the rut.
I have my STRONG opinions about Alex and they seem to line up with your opinion and the opinion of every so called expert in the Nation. But rehasing Alex’s faults and his good points over and over again doesn’t seem very interesting when it has been done to death and there is VERY little new to be said on the subject UNTIL Alex actually takes the field again and does something new that needs to be evaluated.
So,it seems to me that to even things out you should probably have at least 10 blog subjects in a row without Alex being the subject,just to at least pretend you are not just fishing for site hits.
How about the other 52 players ,many of whom are vastly more responsible for the sucess of the team last year than the QB was?
Or how about a couple stories on the new stadium and the seat license charges and what effect they will have the long time season ticket holders in the new stadium etc.
And there is a draft coming pretty soon you know ?
And an interview here and there with members of the coaching staff would also be nice.
et etc etc…I am sure you can come up with endless subjects that would interest fans like me . And if you feel you are going through an Alex withdrawel then every week or two you can throw in an Alex article .
After all he is our starting QB for now and he is a great kid and we do want to know what he is doing,but we don’t need to talk only about him for 24 hours a day …do we ?
It is so much easier to take the low road, do very little research and throw out a half baked controversial headline, than construct a well thought out piece of actual journalism. I guess blogs aren’t really journalism, just a forum to spew opinions. We all have em…lol.
…Sorry Grant I misspoke,I know the “subject” is often not ALEX,but you seem to somehow MAKE the article into something about Alex,is what I meant..
myopic …… just like moss was brought in to address the swain-like downfield incomplete passes he was also brought in to help with one facet of the 3rd down shortcomings by creating underneath openings for crabtree and manningham……jacob brandon was brought in to help with a separate facet of the 3rd down shortcomings……and these translate as well to the shortcomings in the redzone…..
past seasons shortcomings are getting address so i chose to move on and see how these pieces fit together ….. looking forward to the draft and what pieces are chosen to also address the 3rd down/redzone blemishes…..
you wanted fleener for this reason….i want a RG and better play from anthony davis who seems to be the forgotten weak link which still reared its ugly head on the suppose wheel route so many feel AS missed…..
in the NFC championship game
@Grant
I bet u could name all the receivers Rodgers throws at.
He has one excellent receiver – Jennings. He makes the others looks better than they are.
Exactly. He consistently makes extremely accurate throws into very tight windows. Back shoulder, splitting defenders, he does it all. The guy is amazing.
1 is more than none.
Crabs would easily be a 1,000 yard receiver with Rodgers as his QB.
Easily. Year after year.
And Crabs would leave another 500 yards and 6 TD’s in drops. Then he wouldn’t be on the Packers anymore. See how that goes?
Lol. Davis, Gore, Crabs, Moss, Manningham and Walker started practicing new TD celebrations in their living rooms when they heard that Manning was going to be a Niner, don’t kid yourself.
Then the Pack will want to trade to get MC then, right?
I mean if he is all that, I would. Get Jennings and MC who can do all this stuff on the same offense, Can you say 3-peat?
But, I’m betting MC is not getting any attention from the Pack about a trade for him. Or when he enters the FA market, he won’t get paid big time money. And if he likes the weather in Texas, I’m sure he is happy in GB with the weather there.
Get real. Kid somebody whose mindset is not a kid.
“And Crabs would leave another 500 yards and 6 TD’s in drops. Then he wouldn’t be on the Packers anymore. See how that goes?”
So now it’s 500 yards and 6 TD’s? Lol, the yards and TD’s keep increasing. It’s almost like you ignore the fact that Smith left a ton of yards and scoring opportunities on the field with innaccurate throws and difficulty going through his progressions.
Crabtree dropped 7 passes last year. I don’t see how that equals 500 yds and 6 TDs.
BS, I mean DS,
The more you type, the dumber you appear to be. Quit while you’re behind.
I think a lot of Rodgers success is that he knows his receivers and the offense so well. You can’t underestimate how much it means to a QB to not have to think about where somebody is going to be and when.
Rodgers is obviously a superior passer to Smith, but you see his receivers bail him out time and again when he leaves the pocket or just throws one up. The chemistry is so good between all of them.
I’m hoping in year two, Smith and the receivers can start building some of that.
Rodgers has a lot working in his favor, just not a defense or a run game.
@grimey
Look at how often the Packers pass, and how often they throw to the WR as the primary target as opposed to JH’s TE based passing attack.
Add those things up (plus better WR’s), and you can get a lot more yards and more drops consequently. And, I bet AR will scream at MC a lot more than AS has. And somehow I don’t think MC will respond well to being screamed at given his shy personality. MC would not be on that team more than 2 years if they even picked him up in the first place. A QB with AS demeanor is the best thing for MC.
“Crabs would easily be a 1,000 yard receiver with Rodgers as his QB.”
I don’t think I buy that argument. I think he *might* have more targets but there’s no guarantee that he gets any additional YAC or that his catchable drops go down.
I’d have to see it to believe it. But… you could be right.
Show’s how much you know about the packers. Jordy Nelson had 1263 yards and 15 td’s. He was the best receiver on the team last year.
I have noticed that several individuals are concered (critical) that your blogs focus too much on Alex Smith. Do they not realize that the NFL is a “quarterback driven” league? Unfortunately, QBs get too much of the credit when the team wins and most likely too much of the blame when the team loses. You cannot have successful blogs on the back-up right guard or the holder for PATs and FGs. Look at some of the play-off QBs the past few years….Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Payton Manning, Aaron Rogers, and how does Alex Smith stack up statistically with them? Chicago Bear fans, I would bet, also are responding to bloggers about their QB predicament, too. Name a team to win a Super Bowl with a stinker at QB. I guess you could consider Trent Dilfer pedestrian as a starting QB when the Ravens played in the SB years ago, but I would struggle to come up with another average or below average QB as a starter for a SB team.
As far as I’m concerned, the Niners have the best roster 2-53 in the NFL right now. That’s why Alex Smith is so important.
@mike
Go to other blogs to get a taste of what other Niner blogs are doing and how much focus they have on just the QB compared to this one.
Then come back and tell me your findings.
Are you saying those blogs are better or maybe they are less focused on the critical issues of what separates the contenders from the pretenders and the prospects from the suspects.
Did you go to them?
Here is one:
sfgate.com
FYI – One of the blog owners, Eric Branch once wrote here, so look at his posts specifically if you want to know the frequency of the AS related posts that those who have been here a long time are used to compared to now.
How about Terry Bradshaw? He was terrible but won because of steel curtain defense.
Bradshaw wasn’t terrible, he was a late bloomer. A few of those guys were that way. Our own John Brodie wasn’t particularly lights out and neither was Jim Plunkett early on. It happens. Maybe not as much these days.
Why are not the most recent replies at the top of the blog as opposed to the oldest? Is it because you think replies and contributions build on the previous responses?
They do, Mike. You can easily follow the flow of the conversation here just by scrolling down.
All I’ve got to say is, anyone that constantly defends Alex Smith’s performance and blames it on “everyone else” doesn’t KNOW squat about football.
Baalke stated a couple of years ago that Alex Smith holds on to the ball on average 1-2 seconds longer than the top tier elite QBs in the NFL.
RIGHT there is one major problem that gets thrown back at the OL. The OL in the NFL can only block so long. So all those sacks he takes is because he doesn’t trust his arm to hit that tight window when it’s open and he takes the sack instead of possibly throwing a pick, ie., lack of confidence in himself.
Bottom line? He isn’t that great of a QB. Upper management knows it. Why do you think they were traveling to watch Manning. QB is the missing link to another dynasty. They best find one within a year or two while they have all this other talent.
Would those include “squatters?
And maybe the best ever, JM? And the guy he is tied with in Super Bowl wins in Terry Bradshaw?
Please tell me oh great one how you know more than those 2 individuals. Let me know when you will start so I can get my popcorn.
I don’t care what Smith did during those years under the Nolan/Singletary debacle. If you knew “squat” about football, you would know what a travesty that was for any quarterback. I’ve heard Rodgers himself defend Smith by saying he in now way would’ve been the qb that he is under those circumstances. I’m going to judge him starting from last year under someone who does know squat about quarterbacking and Smith did just fine.
+1, Pav.
” I’m going to judge him starting from last year under someone who does know squat about quarterbacking and Smith did just fine.”
I have said that exact statement. And I too heard Rodgers say he would not have been as successful in SF! I dont care what anyone says, he would of sucked if he would have been drafted here! Here’s to year 2 for Alex! Go Niners!
The real truth lies in this year free agency. How many teams were scrambling to offer Alex Smith a contract?
All you Alex lovers answer that. Honestly if he was sooooo good and all his problems were the players around him why didn’t other teams try and pick him up with a great offer?
Duh, I think the answer is pretty obvious to knowledgable football fans and not delusional fans with blinders on.
Oh great all knowing full of crap one
Please tell me how the real truth lies not on the field where games are won, but in FA.
Enlighten us all!
Like I said, NO ONE WANTED ALEX SMITH. NO ONE.
But then again that is NFL GMs not some Alex Lovin’ message board poster making the decisions now isn’t it.
“Honestly if he was sooooo good and all his problems were the players around him why didn’t other teams try and pick him up with a great offer?”
NFL Net had a pretty good bead on this. The basic answer is that by the time Smith actually went out to test the market (four or five days in to the Manning fiasco) there were no seats left at the table.
Whether Smith could have beaten David Garrard for a spot with Miami is debatable but the timing thing with regard to workouts anywhere else seems to be accurate – there really wasn’t anyone else looking for a QB.
His value is here! Get a clue!
Dan you are correct. It played out on a national stage. Smith is only valuable to Harbaugh and currently until JJ OR CK can step up and show they are superior, Smith is our best option. Having said that, he is average….
The point I was trying to make is that the 49ers don’t have that great receiver like Jenning and I wouldn’t say Rodgers makes Driver and Nelson better. They are pretty dam good after the catch. If anything they make Rodgers look great. I will always remain skeptical of AS and if anybody says they don’t is lying (even JH) but I will not give him the 100% blame cuz this is a team sport.
David Garaad beat out Alex Smith in Miami!!!! HAHAHAHA
Know what does that tell you?
Yeah, Alex lost that battle….Hmm, you better re-think that one!
“HAHAHAHA”
Well, we know that you heard people doing that to you a great deal judging from your lack of anything interesting posts.
Double poster.
KEEP UP DA GOOD WORK GRANT!! Smiths numbers r down because receivers n rbs cant catch with thier feet. Wus da stats on tipd n underthrown passes on 3rd downs? Smith hasnt had da same coordinator for 2 str8 seasons, thas y his stats are down. Well andy dalton, cam newton, had NO OCs period n newton already broke peyton mannings records n dalton has the same amount of POST SEASON appearances. Smith is a good guy we all kno that but he aint a baller. U guys want smith or to win games? The staff loves smith but they obviously kno n feel da same, hes limited. KEEP IT ALL DA WAY REAL GRANT YEEEEEEEE!!!!
Claude, quite a long and exhaustive retort on the last topic.
Yet here you are validating my point about any critique of Alex getting the Alex lovers wrinkled (lol)!
Anyway you chose to spin it, Grant’ assertion is validated by the numbers, period!
Grant will likely get enough mileage on this topic to carry on for the rest of the week.
Grant, you could probably take the rest of the week off. You really shook the hornets nest on this one! hahaha…
@AES:
Yet here you are validating my point about any critique of Alex getting the Alex lovers wrinkled (lol)!
How so?
Alex Smith will be the starting QB next season. Take all your stats and put them where the sun don’t shine. Get over it and hope that Alex is great. End of story.
@Dennis
+1. No way is AS not the starter for this team next year if all players are healthy. And if you are cheering for somebody to get injured, you suck.
This is Alex Smiths’ overtime. Sudden Death. The excuses, statistics and passion for and against will be rendered irrelevant. The Offense will be better starting up front. Year 2 of the same offensive system. Full training camp. Proven veteran trio of receivers. Better defense. Better special teams. Better coaching. If he does not find a way to strike gold in the green zone and improve on the money down we will not win a 6th World Championship and Mr. Smith will be employed elsewhere in 2013. I want him to succeed on this campaign with every ounce of my 49er blood. We need 2 Championships back to back with this defense. All we need is 28pts per game. I think he comes into the season with a chip on his shoulder and he does just that. Go Niners!!
Well said Razor. I agree 1000 percent. WHeeeeew
Well said. Go Niners
+1
I agree!!!!!
I think a good blog would be why has the niners O sucked for so long.
1 coaches
2 players
3 play calling
4 no stability
Some of all of the above, I would think. Probably less on #2 though. We seemed to have the talent just not the focus.
Give tons of credit to the organization for finally realizing that coaching makes a huge difference.
Yes Adam we are back on track.
This was SHOCKING to me that there were/are 158 blog comments regarding ANOTHER AS related blog article UNTIL I realized that 52.5% are DS94ever comments (83 in total). DS take a break outside and get some exercise… LOL
Is that an accurate count?? (And we’re rounding our statistics to the nearest hundredth today, FYI).
I was kidding…only 23% are DS94. LOL
You could say she is the workhorse of the blog.
lol. she’s a blogging machine. I just hope she’s not doing it on welfare or unemployment. lol =-).
Md,
Aliens don’t get unemployment or welfare!! BS does need a vacation.
@Grant
DS is doing wonders for ‘click’ counts on the PD website.
Probably the most balanced and fair Grant Cohn article I have ever read, and very interesting to boot. Well done. Part of the reason might also be that he hasn’t had a Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, 6’3+ target so he could just lob it up there and have someone out-jump his coverage. It seems to me that for his whole career he’s been throwing to 5’11-6’2 receivers. Maybe with Moss and hopefully Fleener, he’ll have a better opportunity to convert some more 3rd downs. That’s not everything obviously, but it’s something.
YAWN
S.O.S…
Mike Ditka once famously stated, “Stats are for dummies.” Admittedly, no one ever labeled Ditka a”genius” as some pundits have referred to a few other football coaches and, Iron Mike may have intentionally overstated his real beliefs in the heat of the moment. But, the reality is that too many fans and media types try to read way too much into the stats.
The question as to whether Alex Smith is a good player or he is not, cannot and never will be answered by pouring through stats. Football is the ultimate team game and no player ever accomplishes anything completely by himself. There are always 21 other players on the field at the same time. And, there are always coaches influencing , and in fact deciding, what will or will not get done.
With all of this talk regarding AS not throwing a good/great deep ball and ARodgers not having great receivers other than Jennings, you do realize that of the 4,643 yards that ARodger threw for in 2011, only 526 yards were from throws over 30 yards. Can you say YAC??! AR also threw for 45 TDs and only 6 were from throws over 30+ yds. AR threw 20 passes over 30+ yds and 11 were caught. To hear some from this crowd, you’d think AS would need to throw 20 deep balls a game to stay in ARs league. I guess they really don’t know what they are talking about when discussing QB play in this so-called QB driven league!
Yeah, you should hear what Rice says about YAC. Good stuff, that’s how he made his living – short passes, 75 yards YAC! :P
Does being better then average on third down necessarily equate success? What were the 3rd down %’s of the teams in the playoffs and their ranking?
Alex Smith sucks part 53 by one of the Cohns. I can’t tell them apart.
I’m tired of being trolled by father and son.
Bye.
The team went 13 – 3 when ninety five percent of you all said we wouldnt have a winning record and that included Grant. If you look at the losses we could of easly been 16 – 0. Dallas game bad coaching decesion. The Ravens game we were in it till the last quater. The Cardinal game defense let us down on some gambles. I dont see what all the complainst about AS are about. He played very well, and no not elite and he certainly can improve. Mark my words with a full off season and training camp and the same system for his first time and with somewhat better receivers I think AS will show us marked improvement. AS took us to the NFC championship game, Rodgers didnt do that and Brees didnt do that and Stafford didnt do that and Newton didnt do that amongst others. What is the problem – what he doesnt throw for 300 yards? doesnt throw 30 TDs? doesnt pass for 4000 yards? So what, last year he won since most of you blame AS for the wins, I will give AS credit for the wins. Even tho I know its a team game and its the team that wins or losses. I have only heard one person call Alex a pro-bowler and that was his coach.
Grant I challenge you to have a blog on why the receivers cant get open most of the time or why they drop the ball or why they run the wrong routes, or maybe why the o-line cant get a push when we need a couple of yards, or why Gore isnt as explosive as he once was. Another one would be why the conservative play calling when we get into field goal range when we were moving the ball just fine? Oh I guess that would be fruitless most in here will still blame AS for their woes. Its a pityful bunch of fans when you cant enjoy the season we just had when most of you thought we would suck big time. I loved the season and I picked them for 11-5 last year. I saw something most of you didnt and I see something in AS that most of you dont. And hell no AS is not an elite or very good QB. At this point in time in his career he is average at best but he will get better.
“AS took us to the NFC championship game, Rodgers didnt do that and Brees didnt do that and Stafford didnt do that and Newton didnt do that amongst others”
Are you really that stupid? I guess so. It wasn’t Alex Smith it was special teams play and the defense that got us to 13-3 and the NFC C game. Not dink and dunk, take a sack or roll right and toss it out of bounds Alex.
“It wasn’t Alex Smith it was special teams play and the defense…”
Totally Dude!
You notice how Vernon Davis was throwing to himself in that win over the Saints in the playoffs? he can do it all, that guy.
Delanie Walker threw himself a nice one against the Lions, too. one of the better throw-and-catch combos I’ve ever seen from Walker.
You are soooo right.
Adam,
Flynn torched that Lions defense for 6 TD’s. Alex threw for one and thank god he did since he only threw for 127 yards that game.
And against the Saints he needed the miracle or he would have never overcome the fact that his defense handed him five turnovers and he still found himself behind with 1:37 to go in the game….
He has ability, he is just so sporadic with it and inconsistent with it that it will drive you nuts…. He’s never been consistent game to game and that my friend, is on him…
Adam you know damn well the defense and ST carried this 29th ranked passing attack to the playoffs aaaand 5 turnovers against N.O was a huge part in that win. Yes Smith made 2 great drives, but those didnt win a suoerbowl. I dont think you want to count the biggest moments and compare what the defense and st did againts the Passing game. 2 good games from our QB isnt going to cut it next season.
“…this 29th ranked passing attack.”
Yeah but you also know, as has been stated over and over, Harbaugh’s teams are power run teams. The 2011 Niners would be in that category.
Another reason we have a low pass rank is we have no YAC whatsoever. Go look at the receivers YAC numbers. None of our guys were top 20.
Can’t catch, can’t get separation. That’s why we’re signing WRs. As Bay pointed out at the end of the year, we had no depth at WR, we expected Gore and Davis to carry the team with a couple of scrub receivers.
Almost worked.
“aaand 5 turnovers against N.O was a huge part in that win.”
Of course it was. I take nothing away from the D.
I just give some credit to the players (you all agreed with during the games) that also deserve credit. The Smith and Davis connection was on fire late.
It is what it is. Team sport and all that.
Adam, I tried to point this out below regard the YAC ARodgers receives from his receivers but they weren’t getting it.
YAC Stat:
ARodgers in 2011
Passes thrown 1 – 10 yds = 1,485 yds (162-219 att)
Passes thrown 11 – 20 yds = 1,427 yds (74-128 att)
See the YAC based on completions? Now tell me he doesn’t have good receivers *except* GJennings when he is getting that kind of YAC!!? Those are the type of numbers JR and JT would get as you pointed out so brilliantly!
You really think Jordy Nelson would be good on the Niners?
GC, yes I do. JNelson is 6’3″ runs a 4.51 40, fight for the ball, and gets separation. I’d take him over TG, KW, and the pre-2012 MC. I’m thinking that MC and AS has great years and finally get excellent chemistry.
MD,
The 29th passing attack in yards…and also in attempts. There’s always spinning on this subject one way or the other and in this case you are the spin master MD. You can’t put up huge yards without the attempts. The playcalling for the Niners was conservative compared to the other teams that have been mentioned.
It also wasn’t all the defense. The defense benefitted from the offense not turning the ball over and forcing them to play on a short field as much as the offense benefitted from the defense. It goes hand and hand. Team game you know?
But the one constant has been Smith’s struggles on third down over the years. 2 for 12 in SD in ’10. 1-12 against the Seahawks in ’11, 1 for 15 against the Seahawks in ’10, 1-13 against the Seahawks in ’09, 0-11 against the Eagles in ’09. 2-14 against the Lions in ’11. 3-17 against the Cardinals in ’11.
Very true, and the most astonishing stat of the ones you and BigP provided, was the failure on the short conversions. That is head scratching to me.
Are those the ones Smith gets batted down? I can’t figure it out.
ninermd, Smith had the 9th best rating in the NFL last year. Throwing out the 29th best based on yardage is both incorrect and lazy on your part.
@Grant
I bet a lot of those Seahawk games were in Seattle. Ask the Ravens and Saints how easy it is to play and do well there. I know AS kicked Seattle in the rear big time at home in 2010 and the Cards as well in 2010 at home.
You put up random stats like that with no context what so ever. No idea how good those teams were in general or anything at all. AR posted lousy stats in the Giants playoff game, and the Pack stank it up in KC as well. I bet I can pull some bad stats from those games and paint a picture not at all representative of the teams overall offensive success last year.
I’ve been watching the 49rs for 41 years and there has only been 5 times that we ended the season better than we did this last season.
All five of those seasons were led by Joe Montana and Steve Young so no matter how you slice it and dice it our team led by Alex Smith at least tied for the 6th best season’s results in 41 years.I for one will celebrate that.
Anyone who thinks we should change quarterbacks at this point just because we picked Alex instead of Rogers 7 years ago and they haven’t got over the heartbreak yet ,or because Alex doesn’t put up fantasy numbers,well they are just full of __it
What exactly has Alex Smith done? Oh yea I forgot. GAME MANAGER.
“Now little Alex, don’t try and do anything special like throw a completed pass more than 15 yards in the air. Just dink and dunk or hold it until you get sacked, ok”.
How do you get YAC when your QB can’t throw a WR screen without having the receiver jump 3 yards in the air to catch it? We don’t have a QB!!!
Come on, that’s an exaggeration. The numbers are out there. Smith was better on the edges than the middle of the field.
Go back and look at the 80s games. Plenty of high passes (including The Catch.) And there’s a huge difference between Rice (or JT) running a screen and Crabs and Ginn running a screen.
Our receiver corps was weak and weaker as we went along. Bay nailed this months ago when he proposed looking at Moss instead of bringing up the guy from the P. Squad and bringing in Swain. In hindsight, he was absolutely right.
No, that doesn’t excuse some of Smith’s over-throws but let’s keep this real.
If you haven’t see the P.W. Danny McBride shoe commercial on you tube check it out and make sure its the R rated version.. Classic!
http://www.ninersnation.com/2012/4/2/2919920/patrick-willis-kenny-powers-in-a-r-rated-k-swiss-commercial-must-watch
Interestingly, Smith had a very high completion percentage on third down… he goes, more often than not, to the check down and we end up with a 4th and 2 or 4th and 1… Smith is not comfortable with calculated risk, he throws the longer and medium passes and 1st down and becomes more careful on 2nd and 3rd when defenses anticipate pass.
“Not comfortable with calculated risk.” That’s a good way to put it.
Matt,
we all see it. It’s just that a few in this room will see it and then give you ten excuses as to why he does it….
Gets old really.
Happens when you don’t trust your receivers. When the guys who are supposed to catch stuff are ranking high up in catchable drops – probably makes Smith think twice about throwing the ball.
Adam……Your kidding right?
In the Top 20 list (of the NFC) we’re basically third worst behind Atlanta and Detroit in catchable drops. We have three guys in the Top 20 for a total of 19. Atlanta and Detroit are 21 and 23 respectively. Julio Jones can almost be excused from his drops, he was a rookie.
This is a power run team (with limited pass attempts) so you can see how the drops we recorded hurt.
Like I said before: We haven’t had anything close to a Rice / Taylor combo since forever. If Manningham can bring it, fine. If Moss has some gas left – excellent. We need all the help we can get.
“Adam……Your kidding right?”
No, go look at the stats for “catchable drops.” Not Smith flubs but the stuff they’re putting on the receivers.
Crabs is tied for 10th in ALL the league all by himself.
Adam is absolutely correct. I knows if difficult to digest but there is a reason JH, TB and staff are focusing on improving the receiving corp which may include a drafted WR in addition to the FA signings of RM and MM.
Adam,
Smith has had more then his share of high, low, behind, in front of and flat out inaccurate passes as well. For every really nice pass, there were usually two or three WTF passes and a bunch of easy throws in between.
Hofer,
There is also a reason they tried to get Peyton Manning to replace Smith.
Yeah but they didn’t so get over it!
Hof big P can’t get over it cause he cant get over himself and how stupid he sounds. All this Alex bashing from a bunch of nobody’s who know nothing about football, just a bunch little boys pretending to be pro scouts and NFL gurus when in reality there a bunch of plumbers.
Adam, crabtree is tied for 10th with 13 other guys. C’mon man, keep it real. That’s not like you. 7 drops in over 115 targets.
Hofer,
It’s not about getting over it. You use upgrading the WR corps to support your argument, and people that don’t like Smith could use the attempt at signing Manning to support their argument.
BigP, I get it. It’s time for us to look forward not back. AS needs to improve and so do the WRs. Let’s get back to the playoffs and enjoy the exhilaration we all felt back in January! Now on to the draft! Go 9ers!!!
Drinking a special red tonight?
We had meatloaf for dinner and I had a Cosentino 2005 Reserve Merlot. Perfect! Thanks for asking! How about you, LC and the Mrs?
My dad’s speaking at Gary Cavalli’s Football 101 night class at Stanford right now. I’m sipping on some everyday red – the Bastardo from Trader Joes – and watching the National Championship. You’ve got a knack for finding the good Merlots, don’t you?
My father-in-law is big on Trader Joe (everyday) wines. He has made his own label for years, so he knows best. Yes, I like Merlots for the simple fact that they are now the stepchild to Cabs, so they are less expensive and just as robust. I still favor Napa Cabs (good buys), although for an afternoon glass of wine, I favor NZ Sauv Blancs.
The Cohn Zohn is a big Pinot house but we love Cabs too, and a good Merlot is always fun.
I like Santa Barabara, Russian River, and of course Oregonian Pinots. Kosta Browne is outstanding but can be pricey.
@ Hofe & Grant ( & Clemons; you out dere?)-
Don’t forget Anderson Valley or Sonoma Coast or Santa Lucia Highlands for your PNs. Obscure but really good: Radio-Couteau out of Sebastopol. Sonoma Coast appellation, handcrafted, organic & bio-dynamic growers. Marimar Estate & Merry Edwards, too.
BT, I like Merry Edwards as well as Robert Siskey. Keep sending your recommendations. Thanks!
Merry Edwards is great.
*Sinskey*
“Smith has had more then his share of high, low, behind, in front of and flat out inaccurate passes as well.”
No argument from me. Like I said above, the poor passes (as a percentage of total attempts) needs to come down but so do the drops and passes defensed. Both numbers are about the same and need to come down.
My hope with Smith is that he continues to get incrementally better. He’s looked like he’s made some progress (albeit not huge) since 2009. If he can gain another point or two in completion percentage that will be pretty significant if we can get some YAC out of the receivers, in my opinion.
Cosentino… hah! I have no idea how their wines are but the bastards still owe my former company $35K. They knew they were going under so they ordered a 4 year supply of labels and foils and then never paid.
Limerick Lane zinfandel is really good but hard as heck to find. I’m recently on a Syrah-Grenache blend kick; Morgan and Cline have really tasty and affordable versions.
And there is no such thing as a good Merlot. It is the world’s most boring grape.
No such thing as good Merlot? What about Bordeaux?
Perhaps I’m Neanderthal, but Merlots I like:
Bernardus
Ferarri-Carano
Hawley
Trefethen
and yes, Grant, Pomerol
Yo, Stan! You up this late? While we’re off topic, what’s your red wine rec?
MSC is becoming snobbier than me. Try the Columbia Crest H3 Merlot – best buy for the price. I also like Acacia for the price point. Markham Merlot surprises as well. Duckhorn Merlot is one of my all time favorites. Now I’m off for the night…
Bordeaux shows the true value of Merlot. It is a decent base ingredient if you add grapes with actual flavor.
Ferrari-Corano has the most beautiful bottling facility no one ever sees. It’s tucked up in the hills above the Silverado Trail. I have no idea why they put so much money into a facility with no tasting room and no public access. The place is absolutely fantastic and must have cost millions but none of that money went into functionality.
After you walk through the gorgeous cask celler and tank room, past the marble floored entry ways and beautiful wood paneling you come to the bottling line where they have the cheapest Nordgren capsuler ever made. It’s really weird.
How about a bottle of screw-cap Ripple?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciR7Fq2tqJ0
@ Hofe
Yeah to Sinskey. Also from Napa side: Cuvaison, Étude, Trefethen (limited estate production). Cheers, Bro.
BT, Cuvaison is my old hang out…good Chards also. Etude is also top notch. Damn we need to sponsor a wine tasting for the blog! LOL
@ Grant
Do you remember the last time you sensed any sustained rhythm in the 49ers playcalling?
Rodgers has Mike McCarthy calling plays for a hybrid spread-WCO offense that makes most defenses look terrible.
Peyton called his own games, and became very good at it. He was rarely stultified at the line.
Brady has an evil genius running that program, and he grew up watching Montana run the game’s most consistently prolific offense for 11 years.
Alex has had none of that. None. Zilch. The sensation of rhythmic is the single most telling aspect of watching offensive football. You tear your hair out when it’s not there, and you marvel when it is there.
Give us some idea of the rhythm of Alex’s offenses. By that, I mean, provide insights into the series on which Alex fails on 3rd down. What happens on 1st & 2nd down?
Wow, PBL. I think you’re onto it with that question. I always bridled at the relaxed approach to the line by our team. Joe’s and Steve’s teams broke the huddle with eagerness and a sense of urgency and purpose. That’s one small thing to help keep a D on their heels; mini pressure the way a Hurry-up does. It requires someone besides Jimmy Raye calling plays.
On reflection, I suddenly remember how BW’s scripted plays are sequenced regardless to down and distance, so little hesitation in getting them in to the QB and leaving time at the LOS.
Interesting topic.
I understand on ESPN Gruden grilled Luck for throwing a pick six instead of checking down to an open receiver. I would bet Harbaugh has made it clear to Alex: Do not throw a pick; take a sack, throw it short but do not turn it over.
That being said, it appears clear Alex still needs to work on his mechanics to make his throws more accurate and the entire offense needs to be on the same page on third downs and blitzs, which I don’t think has been the case for years.
It isn’t just the play calling on third down that I hope will be adjusted this year. I think the offense played almost every down not to make a mistake. Now part of that is Harbaugh’s approach, but I hope with everyone having another year in the offense we can open things up a bit on all downs.
Also many QB’s have a go to guy on third downs; Manning had Dallas Clark, Brees has Colston. Joe had Jerry and Roger, Steve had Jerry and Brent. Alex needs a go to guy who will get the third down 70% of the time. I don’t think it’s Davis because he does not have the best hands to handle the hot throws. I do think Crabtree can be that guy, if not then maybe Manningham. We shall see.
Fleener and Crabtree could be a good third down tandem.
“Oh my god! I just threw the venus on a spider 3 Y banana!”
LOL. Gruden’s hilarious.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7753527
Nice. Thanks for posting that grimey9er. :D
That was fantastic. Am I alone in thinking Luck is the goofiest looking quarterback ever? I mean, I think the kid is great despite being tainted by Stanford but seriously… he’s a goofy looking dude.
I’m a goofy looking dude so I know what I’m talking about here.
Too funny. I bet Luck has a stylist help him before Draft Day. :p
49er42, “Gruden grilled Luck for throwing a pick six instead of checking down to an open receiver.”
It had nothing to do with not checking down. He was grilling Luck for not going through the play progression.
claude balls says:
April 2, 2012 at 12:40 pm
@Grant:
“Now you’re just trolling those who have complained about your earlier posts. Do you think this reflects well on you?”
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of Grant’ topic is it?
So here it is for the last time; The Alex lovers get wrinkled over the slightest critique of Alex.
This topic will likely receive over 600 hits and let’s see how many of these will try to refute Grant’ numbers.
Claude, it is what it is. Alex is the most polarizing figure on the team. And only Alex can put his doubters and detractors to rest.
I don’t think this is the case at all AES. I think throwing the QB under the bus to prove a point is desperate and wrong.
Down and Distance is a TEAM stat. A stat that has more than just the QB to factor.
Receivers dropping sure 1st downs? It happened.
Run plays being called to protect leads? It happened.
Short Yardage stuffage? It happened.
Penalties sending us back 10 yards and out of completable distance? It happened.
I don’t mind that people want to critique the QB. That’s his job. But Grant basically went out of his way to suggest that Smith is the problem regarding the 3rd down conversion rate. Even while noting that the Receivers, the Line and the Play Calling may be part of the problem. Not only did he discount this, he went out of his way to show that the conversion rate from the Past are Smith.
I’d like him to show me where the Receivers have really helped any of the QBs’. He can’t cause they haven’t.
I don’t care if you want to critique the guy. Just be fair in your execution. How many Passes did Smith not complete. His Completion percentage went up this year. He had a career year in this statistic. And alot of his Passes were over 10 yards. All while not throwing a lot of Passes by design of the Play Calling. Critique all you want, just be fair. I doubt you’d find many people arguing with a FAIR critique of Smith.
Count drops against the Receiver. Drops don’t count against QBs’ and while they don’t technically count against the Receiver, they sure as hell should. You catch one Pass in 10 targets and at least 7 of them were catchable? That’s on the Receiver. Also defensed Passes. People seem to think those DLinemen are planted to the ground in concrete. That’s not the case at all. They’re taught to identify when a QB is going to deliver the ball to get their hands up and bat the ball. Smith is 6’4 and has what a 43 inch reach? Some of these DLinemen are 6’3-6’5 with just as big a reach. Then add their vertical in the mix? It’s a wonder that QBs’ can even get the ball over them sometimes. Smith doesn’t play against Pop Warner talent for cryin out loud.
Run game getting Stuffed. It happens. If the Run game is going nowhere fast that makes distance to First that much longer.
Take this stuff into account and show it, you’d be surprised how much it matters regarding 3rd and distance.
So Grant? You up for the challenge? Did you log the games? Or are you more of a comment in the notes occasionally kind of Beat Writer? I hope you took reasonable notes and that you’re willing to show your work. You stirred up this mess. You should show the work. :/
Ceader, Blame it on whoever you want, but Smith was only the 12th best in the NFC on 3rd down passing conversions, #23 overall,
#16 in NFC on 3rd and <3 yards, #32 overall.
#11 in NFC on 3rd and 3-7 yards, #23 overall.
#11 in NFC on 3rd and 8+ yards, #20 overall.
#12 in % First Downs/Attempt, #20 overall.
You can't blame the run game on him being the worst in the league in converting 3rd and shorts with passes.
You do know that those stats are compiled on Passing right? And that Smith had near the lowest attempts of any 16 game Starter. Out of 20 Sixteen game Starters Smith was at 20 with 445. Everyone below Smith was a backup QB or injured. That’s from NFL.com … Along with this little addendum ” * To qualify for passer rating, the player must have thrown at least 14 passes/game. ”
And to Grants assertion that Tebow converted more… with his FEET as a Gimmick QB. Where is Tebow now? Uh huh.
In any case that stat is still a TEAM stat. Still requires Receivers to throw the ball to. Guys who are SUPPOSED to catch the ones that hit them in the hands.
Oh and don’t forget how many TDs’ were taken away from us this year because the Refs are too incompetent. 15 had two of them taken away if I remember correctly. ;)
Not making excuses for Smith. Just play fair or I’ll call you on it. :p
Ceader, thosed are percentage based numbers so the fact that he is ranked so low has nothing to do with how few passes he attempted in 2011.
Grant:
Fleener would his size and speed could be excellent. Moss and Davis clear out and Crabtree and Fleener run patterns just pass the first down maker, who do you double cover? If the line can hold their blocks this could be an awesome passing attack. But what are the odds of him being there at 30?
The odds are good.
AES, I don’t think anyone is saying AS is walking on water here but he isn’t drowning either. We’ve discussed this over and over and over. No he’s not elite, yes he need to improve his deep passes, no he isn’t close to AR, yes he needs to buy more time in the pocket, no he can’t take the sack or just throw it away as often, yes he needs to quit checking down to FG as much, etc. We get it! Now there are receivers as you point out. The 9ers need better QB play from AS as I noted and they need better play from the WRs and that is one of the reasons they are trying to upgrade with the additions of RM and MM.
The key point and argument is that each and every play on 3rd down isn’t *only* attributed to the QB.
Really.
I thought after his proday the believe was he would go long before 30. I hope he is there.
Mike Mayock still doesn’t give Fleener a first-round grade.
Neither did Kiper or McShay.
I hope all the other teams feel that way too. I’d love to see Fleener on this team next season.
Honestly I could care less what Mel Kiper has to say anymore. Not since it came out that he was being paid off to talk up players.
I know the guy that said it is in Federal Lockup for Ponzi schemes, but since he’s the guy saying that he paid off Kiper… well where there is smoke that’s usually the first sign of fire. ;)
@Ceadderman I also dislike Kiper because he bases his mock drafts on who he thinks teams should take. Guys like Mayock and even McShay try to guess what teams will actually do which, in my opinion, is way more fun.
Agreed MSC. I’d rather pontificate on who a team takes based on their needs, than on BPA. Course I don’t really get into mocks anymore. :)
Hoferfan67 says:
April 2, 2012 at 5:48 pm
“AES, I don’t think anyone is saying AS is walking on water here but he isn’t drowning either.”
Kudos Hofe!
That’s the best description of Alex’ status to date, and perhaps throughout the whole Alex debate. Now, if we could all meet at this position things would run much smoother around here.
I’ll try not to be ‘moved’ by the few extremist that exhaust this blog with their love/hate ad nauseam stance.
I agree – Hofer’s description was perfect. Once Peyton was gone Alex was the best available alternative. The dude isn’t great but at least he’s not horrible like Rex Grossman or Derek Anderson.
I’m genuinely curious to see how Alex does now that all of the excuses are gone. Harbaugh showed us he won’t let personal feelings get in the way of improving the team so we can feel comfortable that the best quarterback will be on the field in 2012.
I respect Mayock, but really!
Bill Walsh looked at gaining advantages thru matchups. I think the hybrid tight ends, men with size and speed give you matchup advantages in the passing and running games Vernon can match most wide receivers in speed and is a much better blocker than any wide out. Walker is almost as good, but not as fast. Fleener needs to work on his blocking, but his much bigger and not as fast as Vernon, but is close to wide receiver fast. This threesome could create serious matchup problems for defenses.
If Fleener was a better blocker he’d get a first round grade.
Hey Grant make you an exclusive deal 23jordan style:
If Alex wins 11 games next year, the divison and gets the 49ers to the championship game, you promise to resign from the lousy job your doing.
If Alex doesn’t do any of those things I promise to never post on here again, deal?
But you’re a respected, vital member of this community. Why would I want you to leave?
I’m just a nobody who watches football and hopes for the best. Your just a nobody who watches football and pretends he knows who’s best. What do you have to lose?
You’re not a nobody; you’re Prime Time. Don’t be so hard on yourself.
According to your biggest supporters and committed followers who live and breathe every hateful opinion spoken on this blog I am. So once again, do we have a deal?
How do you define yourself? Or do you define yourself by how others define you?
Grant,
Respect member with several screen names and a loving relationship with BS, I mean DS. Please stay Michael crabtree!
Grant, are you trying to be Dr. Melfi here? deal or no deal?
No deal, but if you’d like to make a donation to the blog I can assist you.
As for you 23j, how bout you unleash a fury of welching no one has witnessed before?
Fair enough Grant, make you a better deal, if Alex stinks it up next year, I’m gone, vanished just like 23j, but if Alex gets them back to the NFC championship, I get to write the stories for the blog for 3 days?
You’re welcome to write stories every day in the comment section. In fact, I encourage you too. I don’t want you to go anywhere. I think everyone’s clamoring for more Prime Time.
GRANT!! I’m clamoring! I sure like to indulge in a tall glass of Prime Time every now and again if I do say so myself. Besides. He said Prime Time would take a hike. He didn’t account for his other screen names. You made the right choice. This is a lop sided bet.
El Guapo,
I was just about to say that. What about Prime Times other 7 names??
@23welcher:
Wow, did you just walk into this discussion to warn Grant about Prime Time not honoring a bet? Talk about chutzpah.
Then again, no one knows more about welching than you do, so I guess it would be informed advice.
Bonus points for Yiddish – new blog rule.
Oy Vey!
Fleener will be there for the taking.
What’s Alex’s success rate when it’s third down and 2 or less yards to go? How does that compare to the rest of the league?
What was the average “to go” distance for the 49ers’ on third down? What is the league average?
Grant this topic is like beating a dead horse. The lines are pretty clearly drawn on this one: some folks think Alex is improving, and that stats like these and total passing statistics arent all Alex’s fault; others think that these are merely the symptoms which caused Baalke/Harbaugh to pursue a clearly more talented qb. Can we just drop the needless provocations to the fan base? These stats and this pro-con on Alex have been drummed about on this blog for months, if not years.
If you want to write about the Niner passing game, how about an in-depth article which deconstructs the Harbaugh passing attack, with comments by “experts” (eg, other team’s scouts, GMs, coaches). That is, how about something that illuminates the situation, not something which just throws meat out and asks the Alex fans and skeptics to fight it out again.
I did hours of research and math for this.
lol at grant
i’m not questioning the effort, i’m questioning why we need another article that inflames the Alex-sucks vs we-love-Alex debate. failures on 3rd down have been well documented here.
having said that, you did HOURS of research to show that the Niners had weak performance on 3rd down passing? hours? sadly, i thought we all knew that, and i thot the NFL website’s stats on passing showed our inadequacies all too well.
oh well, onward and upward. I look forward to the next post (which will hopefully not find a reason to angle back to this dead horse of a topic, or find a fresh or thoughtful take on it).
So you knew the Niners were significantly better on third down with Shaun Hill at QB than with Alex Smith?
25 year old Crabtree > 36 year old Bruce.
Grant
When Hill had a healthy Issac Bruce in Martz’s offense, he was better (Issac Bruce) than MC has been his whole career. Bruce made some big plays, and didn’t drop the ball in season 1. In season 2 he did, and he was done.
P.S. A reason why I dislike MC is because he had an opportunity to learn how to be a Pro WR by following Bruce around all day long like a puppy dog. He could have absorbed all it is to be a true NFL pro and a HOF WR at that. But, he chose to sit at home counting his shoes.
If JR were in MC’s place (young great WR from college), he would have been here before the contract was done. Legal or not. To learn from a HOF WR. AS never missed a day of camp due to hold-out. Something I need to see from my leader.
neither stat affects my view of the QB/WR situation. but i will upgrade my view of your effort :-)
to me, Alex’s stats line up with the eyeball test. ie, watching him play, i would grade him as in the X percentile, and perhaps not coincidentally, his stats put him in the same spot. to be fair, his QB rating is higher than my personal evaluation, but that’s because of a stark lack of risk-taking. and that stark lack of risk taking shows up in Total Passing and 3rd Down Conversions, and probably some other stats (yards per attempt, etc).
I’m coming in late, so hope I don’t repeat too much of what’s been said above. But why compare AR to AS? They and their teams have taken completely different paths. AR’s team is exploding with receiving talent – 5 deep at WR, plus Jermichael Finley, plus guys who can catch out of the backfield, plus years of offensive continuity in a great system with one strong offensive-minded coach. Is AR a superior talent to AS? You bet he is. is it a fair 3rd-down comparison? Of course not.
I’ve seen Vernon’s name thrown around out there as if it were proof Alex had someone to throw to on 3rd down. Really? One guy? Ever hear of bracket coverage? If the existence of Vernon Davis were enough to guarantee an option on every pass play, why didn’t he score 100 TDs?
Our WR corps last year was a joke. A bad joke. And to pretend we have some kind of superstar line because Joe Staley is a stud is laughable. Ever hear of Chilo Rachal? Our line absolutely couldn’t handle blitzes for a long stretch of the year. If not for Frank Gore, no Niner QB would have survived the season.
Look, I’ve called AS Captain Checkdown for years, but he made huge strides last year going through his reads and keeping plays alive. Got to admit when you’re wrong, as I did throughout the year about his performance. Could it be better, especially on 3rd down? Of course. Hopefully adding a lanky deep threat (Mr. Moss) and a clutch, professional receiver (Mr. Manningham) and whomever we get in the draft will greatly improve our passing options on 3rd down and in the RZ. Hopefully another year in the offense will make AS’s decisions a lot quicker and GR and JH’s playcalling a lot bolder. And hopefully our new RG won’t be a sieve.
If AS still stinks it up on 3rd down after this year, then you’ll have a case, Grant. Otherwise, not so much. And bringing AR into it is like dancing about architecture.
The third down conversion comparison isn’t between Smith and Rodgers, it’s between Smith and Tebow.
Tebow had Eddie Royal who is a very good young WR. He outran the Pitt secondary to the endzone in that wildcard game.
MC could not have done that and he is the Niners best WR.
That was Demaryius Thomas.
All the more reason why Tebow had better WR’s. That guy is faster than any Niner WR was last year. With the added bonus that he didn’t need to be thrown open and that he can catch a football.
bS,
Once again, your stupidity and lack of football knowledge shines through. #88 is Thomas and #19 is Royal. It was Thomas going deep, not Royal, you Royal dummy!
Jordo, you are too harsh. DS is at least respectful. Are you respectful Jordo??!
Grant…this is a terrible article. I want to know, what are your football credentials? Have you ever played the game or coached? Or are you just some stat boy opinion writer. Learn the game before you write about it.
Did you go to Irvine? Do you know my friend Patrick?
You learned well from your Dad on dealing with Hecklers Grant. Well done.
Thanks. He home schooled me.
Grant, you have a friend? (Just kidding, just kidding! Couldn’t resist.)
Two fairly straighforward explanations tha are being overlooked:
1) Our failure to convert third and short runs during Alex’s career (this counts against him when not converted)
2) The sheer number of third and longs that Smith has faced throughout his career. With each yard, the odds of converting decreases. He not only must gain more yards to convert, exposing himself longer to the pass rush (while wr get open) and throwing to a smaller downfield target, but also allows the defense to key on the pass. Alex Smith ranked in the top 5 for yards required to convert on 3rd downs each of those seasons.
Initially, that is, in your inital post, true. But not subsequently, as I’m sure all are aware (see multiple posts re: time AR has to throw, etc.).
But surely even the Tebow comparison isn’t serious. That offense doesn’t exist in nature. The Flacco comparison is more applicable, but flawed. Their situations were not really similar – even JF had more reliable options than AS did. He also has years of continuity, which AS and co. do not.
This is not to claim AS actually did well on 3rd down last year. Clearly he did not. But I think some of the other posters got it right by saying the more accurate assessment is that the 49ers did not do well on 3rd down last year. Look, they just brought in Mr. East-West Brandon Jacobs because we weren’t getting it down on 3rd and short either.
I say again, if AS smells bad on 3rd down after this year, then you’ve got a very good case he can’t come through on 3rd. But he sure came through on plenty of clutch plays this year — just ask the Eagles, the Lions and the Saints.
Smith has had three years with Crabtree; six years with Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker. You guys make way too many excuses.
The Tebow comparison is dead serious. He converted more third downs per game than Smith did in ’11. That happened.
Tebow played the Raiders!
Did you see how stupid they are on defense? Once you get past the DL which frequently lost containment, any QB can run forever since the Raiders played man. The first game I saw Tebow in the Raiders game, he ran for 30 yards a pop. Nobody was near him.
Take away the Raider games, and how good is Tebow? Also look at Tebows losses as well. AS did not lose any game like Tebow did. When Tebow and the Broncos lost, they lost big time.
Wins matter more than 3rd down conversions. Always will.
Tebow’s Broncos only converted three third downs against the Raiders. Tebow was more successful on third down against better defenses. It’s true. Look it up.
Yeah. Because the Raiders stank at stopping them on 1st and 2nd down. I saw the game. The Raiders did not adjust,and Tebow had his way all the second half. Tebow probably didn’t covert too many passes for 1st downs in that game. Why would he have to? Just go back to fake like you are going to pass, let the DL who are horribly coached lose their lane control and the LB and secondary are running after the fast Bronco WR’s with their backs turned and jet on down field. Play after play. It was playground football.
I don’t know how many 3rd downs they (Broncos) even had in that game. But the Raiders made Tebow a super star that day. Did you actually watch the game? If not, you really didn’t see how bad they were then.
Which good defenses did he face? The Steelers. Yeah. I live with a Steeler fan. Still making fun of her team for sucking so bad. The Steeler fans think there was a scam job going on in that game. Why on earth didn’t anybody not named Troy make a play in that game on defense? There were several times the CB just stood there while the WR was juking him out. And if not for TP coming from across the width of the field, the WR would have ran right by and scored a TD on at least 2 occasions.
The Steeler fans I knew were in shock and pissed off big time for losing that game.
What other great defense did Tebow face?
The Chiefs have a good defense.
You’ve really got to let go of your irrational hatred of Alex. You’re really going to pursue this Tebow thing? Come on. He is barely a QB. His role in that “offense” does not resemble Alex’s. Really, it looks bad when you try to draw such a bizarre comparison.
Alex has had three seasons with Crabs. Under three different OCs and no preseasons. And no confidence from Crabs, who even questioned why AS was running those offseason practices – after JH had given AS the playbook. So please, please don’t try to argue that AS to his No. 1 WR is equal to AR to Greg Jennings, Donald Driver or Jordy Nelson. Really. It’s just silly.
Vernon is a stud, and has had six years with AS … under six OCs, most of whom had no clue what to do with what they had. I say again, let’s see AS after he and everyone else have more than a year with this system, this OC, this HC, and a little bit of WR help.
I wanted to defend Grant against some of the nasty stuff being said in the responses — let me do so here, it’s just not necessary — but help me out Grant! I know you hate AS, but be reasonable. It’s silly to bring Tebow into it. That’s apples to something that’s not an apple or a QB. And AR – that’s the gold standard. Admit AS showed tremendous improvement last year, along with the team, and he and the team have every opportunity to drastically improve on their ugly 3rd-down and RZ numbers this time around. Don’t try to imply he’s worse than Tebow. That’s an embarrassing argument to make.
I don’t hate Smith at all, I’m just pointing out the fact that Tebow was more successful on third down last season.
Grant, have you ever spoke to AS one on one even if it was just a few words and not necessarily football related (or it could have been football related)? What is his demeanor like in the locker room with the other players or just speaking to you?
Grant
The Chiefs team flat out stank last year. That is why they have the record they have. The Broncos as a team were just better. Besides, how did Tebow do against that defense on 3rd down? Which by the way is nothing next to the Ravens defense at home after only 3 days to prepare.
Well, I know now that Tebow could not have possibly converted more 3rd downs than 2 against the Chiefs by passing it in one game because that is all the completions Tebow had. 2
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/gameflash/2011/11/13/4523/index.html
“Tebow finished 2 of 8 for 69 yards, but added 44 yards and a score on the ground.”
Hardly impressive numbers Grant against a bad team. AS had better numbers in every single game. And I don’t need to look it up either to know it to be true.
How many Passes did Tebow attempt Grant. I could say the same thing about Alex Smith and Peyton Manning for 2012.
Smith converted more Passes than Manning did.
See how easy that is? :P
Tebow converted more third downs per game passing or combined?
Pretty sure it’s combined and not Passing. Of course Smith ran for a few first downs too, so I won’t hold it against Tebow. But using a Gimmick QB to make the argument is somewhat bloviated. ;)
Many of us know enough about football to at least agree in most ways with grant that the niners lack of third down conversions as well as red zone scoring is a big portion on Alex smith. We all agree that Alex smith is improving in his qb play, even grant, so maybe stop with the accusations of grant hating on Alex and what not.
Yes it is true Alex has had little to no help with bad Wrs not getting seperation and a bad pass blocking ol, and if Alex had Wrs like Jennings Nelson jones and driver or mike Wallace and company in Pitt, his third down % would rise, but it still would not be within rogers and rothlisbergers realm. We just have to accept that Alex is an above avg qb that will improve to a good qb with better weapons and ol surrounding him, however may never be a great third down or redone qb. He will improve though with an improved ol and wr, but if grant came out with an article on bradford with his struggles, would you bash him or disagree with him as well? Bradford hasn’t had much help either but he has missed quite a few throws and was a major reason for stl struggles on offense and third down as well.
Grant, if you keep everything else equal and had a Rogers, rothlisberger manning rivers and so on as the niners qb, it would almost be a guarantee that we would improve on third downs redone and scoring offense….maybe a few more ints but the positives far outweigh the negatives. On the other hand out Alex on a team with great Wrs like gf Pitt new Orleans he would improve but still not on par with the other qbs. That in itself should prove Alex is not as good of a qb, but he will hopefully improve given Wrs that actually get seperation besides Davis. I hope fans will use this logic instead of using emotions when judging Alex. He will be a good qb, and we may win a sb with him, but with improved third down percentage we would of already had the sixth sb victory…..and yes I know Williams cost us that game just as much as Alex or our lack of Wrs making one play, but put about 10 other qbs as our starting qb and most likely we win the giants game and the sb.
Alex Smith is a good quarterback. The question is: Is he good enough?
With moss and Manningham as well as hopefully an improved ol, if his play rises a few % that should be good enough for another sb run. It’s funny when we were going after manning, we all said he would make our Wrs look great bc of his play…..whereas a player like Alex is not good enough to make a wr look better than he is. Alex smiths best quality is that he doesn’t force throws if it’s not there but that may also be a bad quality. For example when Alex hit Crabtree in the Seattle game that was a great throw but more of a better play by Crabtree.
I agree, that’s why the coaches said, “Crabtree saved Christmas,” not, “Alex saved Christmas.”
You need to look into some regression analysis stats Grant. AS might not be the answer but someone will expose our pass protection holes this year. QB cannot buy time with multiple rushers coming through within three seconds. I know you are a “reporter” but you need to get deeper than armchair QB talk. Sounds like cooler talk “who can you name on the GB line?!?!?!?” Come on, we need to fix this line for whatever QB we have. Also JJ sucks, I don’t care how long he was in a system. Tolzien is better.
If some on here think AS is a mediocre QB (yet ascending) they should take a look at JNamath stats. BTW, JN is in the HOF with those numbers!! LOL
49ers played small ball this last season. Plain and simple, the impetus was on not making STUPID mistakes. That worked for a 13-3 record. That and some Alex Smith magic got them past the saints. Would have got them into the Super Bowl too.. BUT, alas, STUPID mistake. The single most stupid mistake one can make in football. You can throw whatever weird stat you want around, but last year I’m pretty sure even harbaugh wanted to make sure every drive ended in a kick. A lot of those 3rd and shorts were in field goal range and conservative beyond conservative playcalling guaranteed points. Dixon is possibly the worst short yardage back I’ve ever seen. If Akers was missing field goals and the D wasn’t total beast mode, then ya, you worry more about those conversions. But again, you could convert 50% like Rodgers and have all the stats in the world and not get to host an NFC title game. Sometimes I think even writers like this Grant kid get caught up in is the pageantry of the stats and forget that score is kept for one reason and one reason only… WIN or LOSE. I dunno about passing plays between 3 and 7 yards to go on 3rd downs between the 20′s in games played on the east coast in semi-humid conditions when trailing in the 3rd quarter and stuff like that, but i do know that for the first time in his career I had faith in Alex Smith late in games. I worried that the D, after playing solid all day, would be tired, and choke. But for some reason Smith decided to be a winner, and he played like it. I don’t love Smith, I don’t hate Smith, but I want my QB to take care of the football, I want wins… I don’t give a damn about stats, style points, or gunslinging… I like that interception ratio, and I like that small ball got a 14-3 record on the precipice of the super bowl return, until once again, the STUPIDEST play in football occurred.
Do you have any more Alexcuses?
The reason is that the pressure shifts to the passing game on third down, and Alex Smith is at best an average QB that strikes fear in the hearts of exactly zero NFL defenses. Don’t expect these figures to get any better in 2012. Baalke doesn’t expect them to get better either. That’s why he traded up for CK and also put Smith on what is essentially a 1 year contract.
The fear he strikes is in the heart of JH, GR, and the Niner fans.
@ Hofer, and really everybody-
Hofe and I have been fiddling’ round tonight, but he planted a seed about a wine tasting for GrantZoneHeads. No event can pull the whole Bay Area together for us nerds, but perhaps a few local things? I’d be willing to put some thought and planning into some sort of wine & bites tasting in the North Bay if there’s interest. Doesn’t matter; 8 of us or 80 of us as long as we can plan it. At-cost event.
On a more universal note for The Faithful, also maybe some bigass tailgate for Opening Day at the new stadium for our group?
Out-of-State and internationals, shoot, c’mon down!
BT, it would be interesting to meet everyone in person but it would definitely change the dynamic. lol
@ Hofe
Yeah, but maybe in a good way. I found in a few years of doing business that Face Time is invaluable. Sometimes I had a good telephone relationship going for 5 o7 years before meeting my counterpart, and invariably we found our professional and personal relationships benefited. Maybe Jordo and Oneniner are like really cool guys, just with strong opinions, or maybe we’ll never drink with them again (or they with me!). Maybe we wouldn’t take ourselves so seriously.
Wow, Bay doesn’t have two heads and horns after all?
Damn! Andrew from Rishikish is wearing shoes?! 49erGirl is a Church Lady?
Grant is actually 6’6″280?
Some of the “trash-talkin’ tough guys” are really 14 and couldn’t get in to the Tasting?
Let me poke around at this and see if I can come up with something………it could be a gas. : >)
I could make it to Napa on a weekend for sure. That would be interesting.
My best friend is a huge Smither (and so is my boss… yeesh) so I’m sure I could get along with most anyone here.
@ Clemons
Xactly to the point of getting along. Move the dialog, for a day at least, from the Italian Parliament more to a neighborhood Pub; hooting and teasing but not name calling and bottle throwing (until they’re empty).
I remember you know some of the spots from your business dealings. An early one coming to my addled mind would be Jacuzzi. Across Hwy#121 from Cline Cellars and owned by Cline. They’d be pouring their wines (Cal-Rhone and Cal-Ital) that are good value and quite decent, so maybe hold down the hosting costs. We hire their House Caterer for some bites that compliment their wines and charge the lowest minimum cover at the door (discounted for advance sales so we can predict the attendance; $10-15 advance/$20-25 door).
Any other ideas as good as mine. I’m thinking 2 or 3 weekends before Opening Day. I bet both Cohns would have the cajones to show, despite the rude rhetoric here.
Feedback sought…………………. . . . . .
Cline would be interesting – I don’t think I’ve been there. Rutherford Ranch has a great tasting room and Lanny Johnson is the coolest person you’ll ever meet.
Raymond has a nice facility but if there were more than 8 of us it would be a bit cramped. They have some great chocolates that go well with their field blend.
My personal favorite for fun (not great wine though) is Neibaum Coppola. Absolutely beautiful grounds, a great old building and the entire second floor has been converted to a Francis Ford Coppola movie museum. The tasting rooms (two) and gift shop are in the cellars. It’s a fun atmosphere. Really, the entire St. Helena area is great.
If we wanted to slum it we could go to Charles Krug (hah!). I’m still in touch with the marketing manager. About 8 years ago we had a project to re-label approximately 500K bottles of wine because they had “Napa Valley” on the label even though the grapes all came from the Central Valley. The TTB was not amused.
Then again, we could skip the middle men and just hit Tres Vignes in St. Helena. Really good pizza, garlic rolls that are to die for and a HUGE wine list. Also, a great assortment of microbrews.
@ Clemons, etc.
The size of the group make s a big difference. If we are only 8-15 we’d have lots of options. 1st guess is we’d be small. If we have a good time and brag about it we might be able to get another together on 49ers Bye Weekend. Jacuzzi has a small room, larger room, and even larger courtyard.
Castello di Amore, the Coturri Family castle in Calistoga is an attraction too and has some small & medium rooms. Napa trends pricier for events/facilities.
Stuff to do mañana, seeya.
For football talk don’t forget Vermeil Wines on Lincoln in Calistoga!
Blah blah blah. More nonsense and bickering from everyone saying this and that, arguing about vague statistics from the past. Well guess what, none of it will be relevant after next season. Smith will continue to improve, just like he has been doing, and he will show everyone that he can do what so many people say he can’t.
I have 100% confidence in Alex Smith, this team, and this coaching staff. It’s a great time to be a 49ers fan.
LSX, hear, hear! Now on to the draft…
………+1000
why even talk about it smith sucks.
joe m didn’t always have the best line either but he made plays, period. you could say the same of steve y as well.
even jeff g made plays
Jeff George?
It’s time for Alex Smith to put up or sit on the bench. The Smithers have made enough excuses. Will the 4 trick pony learn more tricks? I guess we’ll find out if this 8 year QB project turns into something of value after all.
I don’t buy it. People say “this is the year that Smith needs to produce or he’s gone” EVERY year, and then in come the excuses, and then rinse and repeat the same lines again the next year, meanwhile Smith is laughing all the way to the bank. His rookie year should have said it all… worse than Ryan Leaf’s, worse than Jamarcus Russell’s, but because he has a great attitude, it’s all ok. We have a QB that was drafted about 6 rounds too high, and if he didn’t have the support of the #1 D and #1 ST and a QB guru as his HC, he would have had a pedestrian year at best and would be a FA right now, watching Seinfeld reruns and waiting for the phone to ring.
I want Alex gone more than anybody else. This has been a terrible 8 year nightmare. Every year, AS puts up padestrian numbers and every year, the team brings him back. It looks like JH has hitched his wagon to the AS train for another year. That means we have to deal with another year of mediocre QB play.
“Terrible 8 year nightmare.”
Yeah. Last years 14-4 NFC Title game appearance was horrible, horrible. I mean we didn’t win every game, so it stank.
DS,
No, the team played well. The QB was mediocre.
Nick
Do yourself a favor. Look at all the QB’s the Giants played against in the playoffs.
Matt Ryan
Aaron Rodgers
Alex Smith
Tom Brady
Without thinking about it much, rank those QB’s in whatever order you think they are in terms of skill and greatness and so on.
Then, look at the actual stats each of those QB’s put up against that Giants defense. And this is an actual fair comparison. Since they all played the same Giants defense and no major injuries happened on the Giants defensive side this whole time. The Giants were not sucking at one point in the year and played one QB, then played great while playing another QB. This is as real and as close a comparison as you can have. Same team. Sam defense. Same momentum.
Guess who had the best stats by far? Guess which one came the closest to beating them? Guess which one was the only one to match EM in the things that matter. TD and Int’s.
Then come back and tell me how it isn’t AS.
@DS
Flawed logic there. The Giants defense was geared to take away the pass agains the Packers and Patriots – both of which have strong passing attacks and below average running games. Against the Niners, the Giants were daring Alex to throw the ball by stacking the box. Had they done the same against Rodgers or Brady, they would have been shredded for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs – NOT 12-26 for 196 yards and 1-13 on 3rd downs.
@NickRow:
No, it’s revisionist history on your part. The Giants stacked the box against the 49ers in the regular season game, and the 49ers beat them. In the NFC championship game, the Giants changed tactics and focused on getting after Smith and defending the pass. As a result, the 49ers racked up 150 yards rushing.
There are legitimate reasons to claim that Smith isn’t there yet. Making stuff up just weakens your argument.
Realist,
Amen + 1,000,000. Very well said. These clowns here know I feel the same way. These clowns feel sorry for Alex. This is abusiness and he is the weakest element of our team, that needs to be better. Our WR spot is a ??? but we cant have these issues at QB. We have been stuck with Smith for all these years. This will be his last and at least the coaching staff finally realizes 196 yards a game in this NFL is just not gonna cut it.
@Nick
I asked about the QB’s the Giants faced. You come back only talking about AS.
Again. Read the post and do as I ask before you say I am wrong. I can’t be wrong if you don’t do as I asked you, and you don’t answer the questions I gave you.
@Grant, “What do you make of Smith’s bad third-down numbers?
The answer to that Grant lies is Smith’s strengths and weaknesses, both of which are magnified on 3rd down. Two of Smith’s biggest strengths, as he showed in 2011, are his ability to take direction and be careful with the football. He clearly heeded Harbaugh’s direction and did not force the ball into marginal spaces, instead either throwing the ball away, checking down or taking the sack.
His passivity, lack of field vision, lack of accuracy or improvisational skills play a direct result in the low 3rd down conversion rates throughout his career. Too often last year Smith played it safe on 3rd down instead of just letting it rip. Maybe part of the passivity is due to his lack of field vision because he often see’s things late. Case in point for both of these is the first series against Baltimore, he has Walker wide open down the middle, see’s it late and instead of a big gain and possible TD, the offense ends up with a 3 yard gain and eventually punts. Subtle misses early on play a big role late in games.
Based on the fact he came out of college having run a gimmick offense where he was often asked to run the ball, just like Tebow and Kaepernick, I find his reluctance to run quite odd. He obviously has the ability, the big play against NO, and a few other scrambles throughout the season, but he should use his feet to gain yards and break down the defense instead of throwing the ball away, or at his receivers’ feet.
Fortunately, the front office has put some pieces in place to make the offense better, he has the same OC, an offensive HC, a good D and ST to support him. In 2012 the excuses are no longer valid, Smith will need to either put up or shut up. Here is to hoping he puts up…
Grant, I think this is going nowhere fast.
The fact is, that your knowledge isn’t very good.
You make cut and dry assertions that Rodgers would be just as good for the 9ers as he is for the Packers. This could be true.
Except for one niggling little detail… or two really… Nolan and Sing. Until you can prove these guys are some kind of Mad Geniuses and that they knew all along what they were doing, you can’t say definitively one way or the other that Rodgers would be just as good.
QBs’ CAN make a suspect line look good. But what you fail to recognize is that our Line was extremely bad last year. I’m not even going to waste time with the Sacks. There were enough of them but it’s true a QB can take a Sack holding the ball too long. So I’ll just go to the meat and potatoes of the underlying Stat. Our Line gave up over 80 hits on the QB. These are hits that occur IN the pocket. That’s 5 hits a game on average for 80 hits. An we all saw that Smith got pretty roughed up. Put good Receivers on the field(15 is not even a 4th on most teams) and teams stop stacking the box when the QB has open Receivers to throw to. That’s not fantasy that’s straight up fact. Our really bad Line might actually have some semblance of a chance with good Receivers on the field. Ever thought about that? Probably not.
Here’s a question for you…
would Jerry Rice be Jerry Rice in the Football sense of greatness without Joe or Steve throwing him Passes? I’m not speaking of Jerry Rice past his prime, who was still great. Rather about Jerry Rice in his prime.
Now let’s take this a step further. Think Teddy Ginn would be a better pass catcher with Joe and Steve throwing to him? Or would the ball clank off his face mask just like it did much of the time this season? Think Walsh would have Ginn playing on Offense if it weren’t working, the way it didn’t last season? You think 15 would be with the 9ers for long after three very lackluster seasons? I can pretty much guarantee that Walsh would have no problems keeping Smith after last year and he’d do everything he could to get the kid some Receivers. They don’t have to be future Hall of Famers but damn, anything is better than what this team fielded last year. Our Receivers scared NOBODY and that’s the straight up truth.
Cead
You must be channeling your inner DS94Xev. You write a book without saying much of substance. I thought that was a talent unique to DS. Boy was I wrong.
@Nick
Yeah.
Max can help us write it. We will all be rich and you will still be here crying about the Niners QB who won 4 Super Bowls in 10 years because everybody but him is good.
Why don’t you go ahead Nick and write up every point Ceadderman did and actually explain each point and post it. See how long your post is.
Bet you won’t. And I bet you can’t do a very good job of it by editing a lot out. Explanations require words. Deal with it.
DS
I prefer quality over quantity
Then do the same thing ceadderman did. Make all the points and explain why you are right, because everybody does not see the same things you see, so explanations are necessary.
It isn’t that hard to do. You even said so.
Grant, here is the topic for your next blog post:
“Steve Young could throw better passes with his right hand than Alex Smith”…
Anything to generate some controversy and blog hits, right? :-)
Check this out, especially the Pwr columns.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_CENTER_POWER&tabSeq=2&season=2011&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=true
Rush Pwr = Percentage of rushes on 3rd or 4th down with 2 or fewer yards to go that achieved a first down or TD. Also includes rushes on 1st-and-goal and 2nd-and-goal from the opponent’s 2-yard line or closer.
Using my desktop calculator to find 49ers’ avg of 57% Left, 44% Center and 55% Right, that comes to 52% combined.
So they were only successful just over half of the run attempts on 3rd and short. (no way to find out pure 3rd down numbers)
You can blame it on the other team’s 8/9 men boxes, but that happens on goal line and you need to gain those 1 or 2 yards.
I am hoping Bruce Miller can develop more as a ball carrier, then he and Jacobs can be the ones who can push the pile. I don’t think FGore can constantly do that.
So I won’t put everything on Alex like some here do.
Great analysis Albert. :D
Would you rather give the ball to a pro bowl rb or a turnover probed qb on third downs? I think they knew the answer to that.
*prone*
Who is this turnover prone QB you are referring to?
..its ninermd what do expect he his thinking of how he would probe Alex……I bet he ignores that question
good stuff AlbertS – you pretty much debunked Grant waste of time childish post..
…”So they were only successful just over half of the run attempts on 3rd and short.”
…according to Grant – Alex is the reason the RB didn’t pick up a yard on 3rd and 1…….
on behalf of Alex Smith, I’d like to ask if we can subtract the dinglberry era from these results? we only had two plays called 93.77% of the time……(how could they possibly have worked?)
Sadly this is true. :(
Great QBs transcend the coaches around them. Rodgers makes McCarthy look great, not the other way around. Peyton made Jim Caldwell look great, and Caldwell had his pants pulled down (pardon the Singletary pun) when Peyton was no longer his QB.
If Smith was anything near the player he SHOULD have been for where he was drafted, Nolan would still be our HC. I’m not saying that Nolan was a great coach, but I am saying that Smith is a HC killer.
Harbaugh seems to be doing okay.
But you may be right because NFL teams have lined up to give Nolan and Singletary other head coaching opportunities.
What? They haven’t? Then I guess you are completely wrong.
All you smith lovers were arguing with me when I said singletary was a terrible hire but the smith lovers talked so much junk to me. Your boy alex fails again and now sing is a bad coach. Man was it singletary or alex or the field missing open wr’s?
“Your boy alex fails again…”
Not sure where you got that idea from. Last I checked, the win/loss is recorded to the QB.
13-3. Pretty good season. Pretty decent performance by Smith.
Case in point. Just watched the Harbaugh Bowl again. Smith would have had a 75-yard pass play to Ginn had there not been a chop block called on Gore (which was actually on lineman you’ll recall) and hit Ginn square in the numbers on a fourth down at the end of the game (which Ginn dropped to end the game.)
That game should have been won. The only real mess up by Smith was not seeing Delanie Walker in the middle of the field – he took the checkdown. And he knew it the second he threw the ball, listen to his comments on the sideline. The other thing was the throw to Edwards – that one is debatable, they weren’t on the same page (as witnessed by the conversation on the sidelines.)
The whole time they kept flashing up to the booth where Roman was saying things like, “be smart with the ball. Protect the ball.” He did that – took a ton of sacks. The Ravens D-line outsmarted our guys on several plays.
I’m not sure what else you want this guy to do. I’m repeating Joe Montana’s line there about Smith cuz it certainly seems to ring true.
Watch the repeat of the Harbaugh Bowl and tell me what you think.
During a long offseason, it’s good to know Patrick Willis is working harder then ever.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV-IqEmmNu0&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Does anyone remember the original Star Trek episode in which Frank Gorshin played two aliens, both mirror images of each other, one half black and one half white? I watched it as a little kid, so it’s been a while, but, if I remember corrrectly, they were the last two survivors of their respective planets, each planet wiping out the other. They hated each other and were locked in an eternal struggle, with neither winning, nor losing, just constantly at each other’s throats.
Sort of like this blog.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7b/STLastBattle.jpg
@ex-golfer
That might be the most cogent point made here in weeks!
All third down plays when Smith was on the field, regardless of run or pass…might as well blame our terrible third down percentage on Jonathan Goodwin, I’m guessing he was on the field at the same time too…
Didn’t you know? Goodwin sucks at converting third downs ever since he left the Saints
Not sure where that one came from…
….I blame Crabtree, he his the closest to the first down maker on the sideline …..why couldn’t he just move it…
After losing 2 hours of sleep reading through these responses, i’ve come to the conclusion who the hell cares about 3rd down conversion percentage. If you’re converting 100% of 3rd downs but throw 10 interceptions on 1st and 2nd and losing games would you rather have that? The bottom line is the guy won’t cost you the game, has the ability to win you the game, and more importantly good enough to win a superbowl. that’s all that really matters.
The bottom line is the guy won’t cost you the game, has the ability to win you the game, and more importantly good enough to win a superbowl. that’s all that really matters.
First of all 3rd downs are very important. Second. Where do you get he is good enough to win a Super Bowl ? He had the best team going in last season and failed. You can speak through your ars all you want, but that doesn’t make it true. Get real guy!
special teams and defense failed in the NFC championship game…where is that train of thought…..
@md
So, he had the best team going into the regular season and failed to win the Super Bowl?
I’m pretty sure most experts had us at the below sucking level during the preseason.
So he had the best team going into the playoffs? Well, then that means he made them the best team going doesn’t it. You did say that the QB is the most important position in football. And if we were below sucking during the pre-season and now the best thing going into the playoffs, AS by your own rules must account for most of that improvement from going from:
below sucking – - sucking — below average — average –above average — good — above good –tad below great — great — greatest.
You have just admitted that AS is a big reason for the Niners winning games now. I’m using your own rules, and what “experts” said. So can’t dispute it.
Jg…. Did he mention the defense or special teams? Nope. Yes kw was also a reason why we lost. There you see how I can see outside the box.
Ds when did Alex smith out on a number 20-99 and start playing defense and and st? Your making my point. What was the weakest part of the team last year? Passing is the answer. Whos the general of this passing game? Alex smith. See how that fits. We need improvement in the passing game your going to have to admit that our qb needs to get better, JUST like our recievers.
@md
“Ds when did Alex smith out on a number 20-99 and start playing defense and and st? Your making my point.”
Huhhhh? I have no idea what you are saying. Maybe I am making your point since I don’t know what it is as you typed it.
And everybody on earth knows that passing takes more time to get down than running. Especially any kind of passing attacks that require timing (like virtually all). So, that takes reps. Reps that did not happen at all since there was no mini0-camps. Reps for the players and coaches to learn from one another (it is a 2 way street) on what/who does what well.
And, oh yeah. That strange spaghetti legged QB who had the weakest arm in his draft said to give the passing game time. He actually talked about multiple seasons. We go to the title game in 1. AS was the QB. Nobody else.
And some wonder why they’re called Smithers. They can’t even except the FACT that Alex smith is poor on third downs. You’ve got onelame with that rant yesterday and today he’s pointing out ONE play that “proves” his defense on smiths 3rd down play. And others coming up with every excuse as to why smith isn’t bad on 3rd downs. And they wonder why fans call them Smithers. I have yet in the years I’ve been on here to hear ONE single Alex smith fault. It’s hilarious!
Nothing is Smith’s fault, it is always somebody else’s fault that he is unproductive. He has the best job evar…..
@ninermd:
I have yet in the years I’ve been on here to hear ONE single Alex smith fault.
Then you haven’t been paying attention.
i have always said AS has things to prove like making this offense his own ad nausea-um ….. but i am not going to agree with the bays and 23Js and others that AS has no redeeming values or that everything is so set in stone …. I enjoyed last year and AS was part of that enjoyment…he made some terrific throws….he was careful to a fault…i will wait until next season to make any further asssessments of AS growth under JH….for me JH was the biggest offseason acquisition to help turn this whole team around…..and that includes AS….
Agreed on all points.
There are certainly fanatics on both sides of the issue but I think most thinking fans agree that he’s done some God-awful dumb stuff but he’s also done some pretty brilliant stuff.
And you’re right JG, it’s been talked to death.
Alex Smith volunteered to search for Sierra LaMar (see link below). He’s a great guy – no doubt – but at the same time he’s a flawed mediocre QB. I didn’t become a Niner fan in order to cheer for good guys. I want the team to win. It appears that some people here can’t make that distinction.
Right now, we have a mediocre QB. If he miraculously transforms himself and delivers, then great. Otherwise, he’s gone and I wont shed a tear.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/04/49ers-quarterback-search-sierra-lamar-missing.html
I will not shed a tear either. After watching him fumble around for 5-6 years and waste Gore and Vernon Davis’ talents.
waste Gore and Vernon Davis’ talents???
…Guess V. Davis got to be a pro-bowler because he threw the ball to himself……
Nickrow
In my opinion, that only means you never really became a niner fan at all. I read your posts…you’re better than that
A QB Can make or break a team no matter what the talent (2011-Colts) Manning did great with same talent in the years prior. He left and the team Died. If Alex left, would the Niners be crushed? I don’t think so. We have enough talent on this team to make a run for years but this has to be the last year messing around with Alex if he is once again mediocre.That being said he does deserve another year in the same system but after 8 years I don’t know where this explosion of talent will come from.
“but this has to be the last year messing around with Alex if he is once again mediocre.”
13-3 isn’t mediocre. It’s a team game and Alex helped get ‘em there.
We have some issues with Smith and the receivers and the O-line (although they got it together going down the stretch.)
It certainly looks like they’ve added some weapons on offense. If Brandon Jacobs can once again run north to south in short yardage situations (and spell Gore once in a while) and Moss and Manningham pan out? If we get a few good linemen to replace the FAs we lost? All good.
The chemistry between Smith and Crabs looked better this season and we did what we could with a super thin receiving group and… made it to 13-3.
I expect the boys to be in the playoffs again this season. And this year they know what to expect. They’ve been there and done it.
All arrows up for 2012-2013.
Adam, the arrows need to be up for 2012 because if they are not this team will find 13-3 very difficult to repeat.
Smith played a part in the team reaching that record, but that +28 turnover margin played a pretty big role too. History shows that this number will go down in 2012, so Smith will have to make up for that by improving his play, in particular on 3rd down to keep those drives moving.
Smith’s history suggests that he won’t be able to repeat his success, but as I did this past year, I will put my faith in Harbaugh and his staff. They have built up the playmakers around him, and removed all the previous excuses. Time to go do it now.
“Smith’s history suggests that he won’t be able to repeat his success.”
I don’t really buy that unless there’s an injury setback. He seems to have made progress over the years just at a very slow rate.
My thought on this is that if Smith had had Harbaugh the entire time… I think we’d be looking at solid top-10 QB every year. He’s smart enough, has the athleticism and has shown some flashes of brilliance over the years – this last one had the same people who are bagging on him now shocked and astonished. Go back and read the backpedaling that was happening around here last year and all the bashing from the Smith Lovers on the Haters. It was quite a reversal of how things are right this second. Funny change of attitudes actually but whatever.
I’m not sure the turnovers or even the net point margin should be all that much different, the defense is more-or-less intact and the offense should be a few points better. You could be absolutely right though, it’s going to be a tougher schedule and we won’t know until the games are actually played.
Can’t wait! :)
@Adam, “I don’t really buy that unless there’s an injury setback. He seems to have made progress over the years just at a very slow rate.”
In 2009 and 2010 he started the same number of games, and his numbers were almost identical. The perceived step up this year was really nothing more than the result of finally playing all 16 games. The only area of improvement was his interception total, which was huge. Everywhere else he actually regressed, yards per game was down, and touchdowns per game was down.
He needs to improve or it could be a long year.
@jack
How many easy games did we actually end of having?
Cleveland at home.
Rams game at home
Other than that, we didn’t have easy games. Washington was actually decent at home on defense, and it was our 4th (?) East coast trip game. No team has every won more east coast games than this team did. And that includes JM’s Niners teams which are far superior to anything in the NFL today.
Our division games were basically all played when they started playing well. So, those were 5 tough games. And opening day favored Seattle for the simple fact that they had their system and coaches in place and we did not.
Baltimore in Baltimore. Not easy. Especially since we only had 3 days to practice. And Adam’s post was right about that game.
The Bengals we thought were a bad team, but they ended up making the playoffs.
The Eagles were the dream team. Till JS put them to bed with an awful headache.
Don’t dismiss the difficulty of our schedule this past year. I don’t think it can really get much harder. We were the best team in the playoffs largely because our record was legit. We got it facing a lot of hard teams who played great when we played them. We had a hard schedule (time wise). We were the best team heading in. The Pack and NO’s, they got very lucky with their schedule. They didn’t earn their wins as much as we did in terms of how tough the opponent was. And I have complete faith that we can win a ton of games next year again better than any other team.
@DS, “How many easy games did we actually end of having?”
That question has nothing at all to do with anything I said.
@jack
See your first paragraph at 9:06PM
“Adam, the arrows need to be up for 2012 because if they are not this team will find 13-3 very difficult to repeat.”
Schedule must play a big part in that statement Jack. Can’t ignore the teams one plays in getting that 13-3 record. If it is hard to replicate, you need to first determine if this last season was an easy 13 win season, right?
Logic dictates that you must.
@DS, the logic that I used was that the +28 turnover margin will be difficult to replicate. Just read the entire comment. I don’t feel like repeating myself.
99999ers1,
No, they would still be a playoff team. The Harbaugh system ensures that a good to better than average QB can be successful.
I’ve said for some time now that there may be 8-10 QB’ in the league that could operate and have success running this system. And I will add, perhaps do better than Alex!
Not hating, just saying!
I’d like to see the list of teams listed in order of 3rd down %. I’d be willing to be dollars to donuts that there are plenty of bad teams that have a high 3rd down %.
Stats don’t mean anything unless they are applied. It’s one thing to quote stats but then to not apply any applicable meaning to them is meaningless. How about giving a list of the playoff teams and their respective 3rd down percentage and then show then bottom 10 teams in the league and list their percentages for comparison. I bet the averages for the two groups are pretty damn similar.
What was Trent Dilfer’s 3rd down completion % in 2000 when they went to the Super Bowl?
The guys who always bring the game against the Saints up well guys you know why Smith always have a good game against them? Well cuz they always played contain defense againt us cuz they feared Gore so any QB could had such games against the Saints if they always played contain Defense, if the Saint played contain Defense against Manning,Brady or Rodgers they woudl be totally crushed by those QB’s.
Exactly, correct. The Saints Defense was aweful last year. 9ers defense and kicker, akers, won 9-10 games last year. Smith is aweful and amoung the 4 worst starting QBs in the league…but we do not have a choice.
That’s naive. Both teams played in the same post season match-up, terrible defense or not they still had the same record and played better teams then us. Smith still had to make the throws and the receivers still had to make the catches regardless of the quality of the defense.
There are a lot of angles to take on the Smith sucks argument but the Saints game isn’t one of them. Smitty won that game for us whether you like him or not and if you cant see it then you don’t belong in the conversation.
Grant excellent article. All you morons out there talking about how good Alex Smith is and making excuse after excuse why his third down numbers are so low I got some FACTS for you. Here are every third down conversion of Shaun hill during his niner tenure. Any and all excuse you bring should be left at the door because Shaun hill was under the exact same circumstance as Alex. ( Shaun also had a winning record with the niners over his tenure)
8-16
9-15
4-14
4-14
4-10
7-15
9-18
5-11
2-10
7-15
8-15
8-17
4-11
4-10
7-18
5-15
0-11
4-13
4-14
Totals: 103-262=39.3% slightly above average but 5% points above AS he had the same weapons same line same coach etc etc. But he performed better on third downs. The OL didn’t magically block better for him and gore didn’t magically run for more 1st downs for him. He simply is a better QB on third downs than AS. AS is not good on third downs it’s as simple as that.
We have offensive weapons. excellent TE’s both davis and walker, excellent run game, average OL and average WR. If the only way Alex can win is by having all pro players at every position then you are alreading proving my point AS doesn’t make players better he needs players to make him better.
Please
Give me a little break.
Hill had a very good OC in Martz. FG was actually better then. And, hate to break it to ya, Hill was benched then traded away to Detroit where he is sitting on the bench while at the same time AS is leading the team to the title game. Beating the team who beat Hills team.
Hill was traded because they didn’t want Alex to have any competition they wanted him to be the starter. Because they knew hill would win the job in camp. Alex smith would be a back up on the Detroit lions right now Matt Stafford is a pro bowl QB. Hill played for more than just martz.
And Hill sat. While AS beat his team in the regular season with a perfect JM’esque pass to win that game agaisnt the undefeated Lions team at home.
Then AS again made a great comeback against the team who beat Hill’s team (all while Hill sat on the bench in both games) in the playoffs.
Your numbers are a fraud. The Niners also had Issac Bruce at WR and he was tearing it up that one year with Hill as well. The next year, even with Hill at QB, Bruce stank. Then AS came in and turned VD into a Pro Bowl TE. When Hill was in there, VD was not going to the Pro Bowl.
See. Stats suck if you don’t understand them. And I can tell you have no idea how to use them.
His numbers are not “a fraud.” Shame on you.
Ds you Stepped in some doggy dooo with that comment. I guess you will go to ANY lengthy to defend smith. Also MM didnt want smith starting for his system. Jt osullivan was his man. And smith was beat out by hill one year. Oh and if you all can make up the coach or OC excuse for smith well then make that sandwich for hill too.
Comparing stats without context is a fraud Grant. If such practices were allowed in the things that really matter, pharmaceuticals, electronic devices, cars, safety,etc. You name it, everything would be a complete mess.
Take a Stats class in college Grant. They have a great one, likely the best in the world right there in Santa Rosa Junior College. They have some great teachers there as well. Maybe, just go ask a stats teacher there some day about manipulating stats to serve a purpose. If he can do it. What consequences are if you only look at stats (especially one) in isolation? For something so complex as football, how taking a single stat in isolation without any other factor is a good practice or not? Heck take the word football out (we all know football is complex) and ask the teacher about complex systems and stats and the just isolating a single stat while ignoring every other factor is a good idea.
Serisously. Go to the SRJC and ask them. Then come back and tell me what they said.
No context. No defensive ranks of teams who Hill played that year. No defensive ranks of teams AS played this year to match and compare. Nothing. Zilch. That is BAD. And I’ll never accept it as anything else because I know what and how to manipulate such data around to fit my agenda if I choose. But I don’t do I Grant? I am the guy who says stats suck in football. I hate using them. If you have not read those posts, you missed out.
Those stats are over a three season sample size. Go read the chapter in stats about sample sizes.
@md
You can use a stats class lesson as well.
Can’t isolate a single stat and come to a broad conclusion from a complex system.
BAD ON YOU.
19 individual data points there Grant
16 games in 1 season.
48 games (48 data points) in 3 seasons.
Where are the remaining 29 points Grant?
Please. Don’t tell me it is 3 seasons worth,then cut out over half the data points of what 3 seasons actually are. That is really bad of you.
If it is really 3 seasons (we know you are wrong) and you present less than 1/2 the data, what does that say? That the rest is…what.
It is less than 1.25 seasons Grant. A lot smaller sample size than 3 seasons.
I got an “A” in stats by the way. So, I know what sample size is. And I know you look at the actual data points (games). Not the timeline (years).
Where did you take stats?
Let him have it Grant! Your 19 data points on Hill are still better than any 19 consecutive data points for Smith at any point in his career.
Go to the SRJC Grant.
You learn about sample size. You also learn about how/when/why you throw out certain samples if they are outliers.
You learn about standard deviation. Something which pretty much decides if using stats on something is even worthy doing (meaning do you get any worthwhile information from it) Hint: Sometimes it is not. And if you look at the issues AS has had in his career here, you would find that in most cases, using stats is not worth it at all. Because the standard deviation is all over the map and that is because of the 3 HC/7 different OC/his last one before JH was a dinosaur, etc.
If AS were a drug or a product where you make something Grant, the stats on him would be thrown out. The product is still very interesting so the company keeps it around. But now that the things appear to have settled down, now stats will be much more reliable.
P.S. It still takes 3 years to learn a system. And you need to have at least 32-35 data points if actually possible to have a sample size worth doing stats on as well. AS with JH has a stat size of 16 (regular season only).
You only talk about stats on this board earnestly when they apply to Michael Crabtree. Otherwise, you explain to everyone why their stats are frauds, as you say.
You only talk about stats on this board earnestly when they apply to Michael Crabtree. Otherwise, you explain to everyone why their stats are frauds, as you say. We don’t need your permission to discuss stats. I’m a college graduate.
Yes Jack.
Let me have it. You had not idea how to read stats either. So your opinion really matters. Not.
No I don’t Grant.
Everybody asks me if MC getting 1000 yards is going to make me happy. They want me to make it about stats. I refuse to do so.
I always reply (to Adam707 specifically) that I don’t remotely care what he gets.
I want him to make big plays in big moments in big games. That is what determines greatness Grant. And there is no stat for that. And what great play in a big moment in a big game did MC have Grant? 1 that I can remember. That catch (from the perfect pass by AS) in Seattle. None in the playoffs when it mattered most. That was all VD making those TD’s from perfect passes.
AS made the big throw in Detroit to win that game. He lead 6 comeback wins. Those are things that are not stats. Those are things I care about.
The only stat (not really a stat, more of something we call raw data) I care about is Turnovers. And the things that I use to determine if a QB is good or not is TD (I hope I don’t need to explain why: TO (Int, but also fumbles)
That ratio tells me more than anything about 3rd downs or yards do. Points win games. And TO’s are the most important thing that wins games. What is the ratio of the most important part of winning to the most important part of not losing (TO).
And of course, you still need context. Event that number in a vacuum is meaningless. How good were the opponents defenses? What were the circumstances in each game? All that matters. If any of it is left out, your conclusion is definitely not all encompassing and is very likely wrong.
P.S. Drops are not really stats. They are raw data. Raw data is used to determine stats (like QBR). Same goes for TD/Int. Look at the raw data. Not the stat.
You should try the whole brevity thing once in a while.
I’m a college grad as well Grant.
Does that mean I know about everything? No. Did you take stats in college? Or what was the highest math you went up to? Trig/Calculus?
I never took Art History. So me going around saying I know this and this about why/what this painting means is really a joke. I don’t have any understanding of it at all. So, I don’t. I don’t talk about it, or claim to understand it because I am a college grad.
I took trig as a freshman in high school.
DS in case you have not noticed Grant is turning into his Dad and following in his footsteps to antagonize readers and create controversy through his stories and now engaging in commentary with his readers.
The blog is a haters forum now as he truly believes Alex is everything that the haters reiterate everyday. He has publicy admitted to it so my question is, what other Bayarea writer covering the Niners has had or written such a one sided opinion on a player?
Answer=None cause there all professionals, this guy is a joke and the blog is joke now, simply stated!
As always, thanks for raising the level or discourse. You’re an invaluable member of the blog. Thanks for your unwavering loyalty and support.
Trig.
Shoot. Trig does not have much to do with how you do stats. Calculus has a bit of it. But more than that, it teaches you how to really use numbers and math in ways that are just really cool.
At least for me anyway. Calc is awesome.
@FDM what do you recommend we do?
You’re the one who brought up trig. I took two years of calculus in high school.
DS move on…………..and come back at training camp, hopefully the PD figures out that amateur hour isnt working.
@Grant
From my post:
“Or what was the highest math you went up to? Trig/Calculus?”
I asked about Calculus as well. Your Calc teacher wasn’t very good if he never brought up anything like sample size into a problem.
3 seasons worth is not 19 games. He should have taught you better than that.
@FDM
I respect you a ton. The fact you have been here since the start means you have actually seen what everybody has done. Not many others can say that.
So, I’ll consider your request. If Grant does not play it fair and do this same issue “3rd down failures” VERY soon with the rest of the offense, and be just as harsh with them as he is with AS, I’ll take you up on your TC comment.
…Grant has been wrong so much…i am starting to doubt he his a college graduate…….
…why brag about taking calculus in high school but not in college…….unless of course he really does not have a clue about statistics…….
..its really a shame what our site blogger has been reduced to……
You are probably the biggest moron on a blog comment board I have ever read. You make things up. Issac bruce was 36 years old in 2008 and hadn’t been good since 2004. Your right he did do decent that year but that was because of Shaun Hill, even with that he had an ok year. Vernon Davis grabbed 3 TD passes from hill in 5 games so he probably would have caught at least 10 from hill if he played the whole season. You say my numbers are a fraud that is stupid my numbers are what they are, I didn’t doctor them I put every Shaun hill game up and let the numbers speak for themselves. If Alex smith was on the lions he would be a back up also you can’t argue that Matt stafford is a better qb. Maybe you should go back to school and learn some more reasoning and interpretating skills.
AS threw 3 TD’s in his first appearance to VD in the Houston game. So, in 1/2 game, AS threw as many TD’s to VD as Hill had in 5 games.
Your point being?
Numbers without context are like words without sentence structure. Can’t make any reason with them unless you order them in some coherent fashion. That involves context. Learn something while you are in school. If you are not in school, go back.
You guys are like some rag-tag team of mercanries. Guys who get guns and shoot them around and think they know how to handle a gun becasue they can shoot it.
If you wnat to use stats, you need to be like a NAVY SEAL. Proper use of each weapon. Each weapon has a particular use and puropse. Some people in the team can handle one weapon better than another. Some weapons are good in one situation, and horrible in another.
Stats are the same way. You need to understand how and when to use them if you are going to use them at all. And just like guns and weapons, you should stay clear if at all possible from every using them unless you need to in a subject like football.
And, sorry. Neither you nor Grant are a NAVY SEAL of numbers. I am not either. But at least I know it and know the basics. Better to know that which you don’t know than to think you know that which you don’t.
….right on point DS….lol….
My stats were in context. I stated here are all of Shaun Hill’s third down conversions during his time with the Niners, if you want to compare Hill and Smith more indepth than that be my guest that is not my job nor do i want to spend that amount of time and energy to try and convince you. I’m a marketing major stats minor from BYU again I prefaced my comments you decided they weren’t good enough and you wanted more indepth the information is at your finger tips get to work.
NO had great 3rd and long stats all year. Then they stank against us.
If you don’t look at the defenses they played against (another stat which is viatal in the 3rd down stat) you can’t possibly explain why they failed so bad against us compared to the rest of the year.
If you do, then you see the light. Bad defenses, they did what they wanted to. Against a good defense like ours, they did not.
Context matters. No context. No nothing.
Don’t ask me to do the work. You made the conclusion. That is your job to do the work. It is my job to call you out on piss poor conclusion based on nothing but what you wanted to present. Not what actually is.
Maybe you are good in marketing. Explains why you conveniently forgot to mention that your product is flammable and didn’t inform the consumer of that. You implied the product was fact and safe and that it is pristine.
Your stats were slightly off. In three of Hill’s Niner games he only played one half. You gave him credit for a Dilfer half, an O’Sullivan half and a Smith half.
I just re-tallied Hill’s real numbers and his 49er third-down conversion rate was actually 40.17%.
I’m glad you used NO because they played against 2 great defenses ranked 2 and 6 Houston and Jacksonville. They still had good 3rd down conversion rates against them. Wrong again.
They played Texans at home. Texans are not anywhere near as good as their ranking.
The Jags. They just suck. Did you see the game? I did not. So, I can’t say.
But, 3 good defenses out of a total of 18 games? That is 3/19 = 16% of the time they played good defenses. Take away 1 (us since they sucked) and that goes down to 11.11% of their games are against good defenses that they looked nice in.
Look at the Niners (since you are comparing AS to others). We played 2 (Seattle)+2 (Cards) +1 (Baltimore) +1 (Pitt) = 6
Then you look carefully at the year. Detroit was good when we played them. That makes 7.
Washington is decent (if Jags are) so that makes 8
Philly we played early and they were the dream team so that makes 9
Cincinnati are decent as well, so that makes 10
Tampa were the darlings at that time. They had beat us last year, and had a winning record so, their D was fine against us last year with us having the same offensive players. So that makes 11
That is all I am going to do now. So 11/18 = 61.11% of the games we played good defenses. (I’ll leave out the Giants defense even though they did stop GB twice late last year rather well and the Pats great offense).
So, you are comparing 16% to 61% and saying they are similar enough to draw any real conclusions from?
God, you suck at stats. I hope it’s your minor.
Care to try again?
If you keep telling people they suck or they’re frauds I’m going to have to put you on timeout for the day.
Grant,
Take the conch away from her.
hahahaha… I like how when you are proven wrong then you start to come out with “fraud” stats. Hey based on your stats ( obviously it isn’t defensive rankings because then those stats don’t agree with you)
they played detroit 2, atl (2) and green bay 1 (if you count the cardinals), Carolina (2) (if you can use washington.) Chicago 1, New York Giants 1 that makes 11 plus us that makes 12 so 12 of 18 or 66.66%
oh but wait you used tampa so that makes 14 of 18 for 77.77%
See how you have gotten your “stats” wrong. Based on your “stats” the saints were converting 3rd and long on good teams all year long
We get it you are currently taking basic statistics right now. Congrats you know how to setup confidence intervals and determine sample size. Maybe when you get up into the high level stats classes you can learn do more statistical analysis because you are lacking.
You should take your own advice and Put some “Context” into your stats because you failed to do so with the saints. Did you even look at their schedule?
@Niner 4 life
Great football knowledge there. The Cards finished the season last half as a top 10 defense. You are not a Niner fan if you don’t think the Cards have a good defense. You clearly never watched the games.
GB broke down and stank to begin with. They are a good offense and had the best laid out schedule in the NFL.
Again context is a problem of yours.
They played Detroit. When? When they were great and rocking and tooling (first 5 games). Or after we beat them when they went like 0.500. And gave up 6TD’s to a backup GB QB and gave DB a ton of time in the pocket. That Detroit team? Please. When they played Detroit, their defense was exposed. Not like when we played them. Undefeated, the toast of the NFL.
Oh, they played Chicago! Oh wait. Chicago stank to start and end the year. They played Chicago in week 2. The Bears stank then. They would have lost to the Raiders (and to prove it, they did later in the year), they were so bad. Again. Context. How good were the Bears when the Saints played them? Get some facts before you post.
And, I took out the Giants for the Niners. So, you have to leave it out for the Saints as well. Nice try. Adding an extra data point to raise the Saints.
Oh, they played Tampa twice! But wait. Context again. The Bucs were a winning team in 2010 and started the season off winning as well (3-1). Then they came here and lost. They lost big. And, like I said. That same defense shut us down less than a year ago. Then in the rematch,the Niners scored more points with AS as the QB then any game SY ever played and the most since before JM left.
And then they played the Saints the next week. And Won!! Look up the 3rd down conversion stats yourself. And keep in mind, that means zilch! The Saints lost to the team we beat to a pulp the week before!
After that, they lost every game left (10 straight). Didn’t matter who they played. They stank. A. Yeah. You are really smart. Wow!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_Orleans_Saints_season#Schedule_2
Next time, look at the actual schedules before you blerb out a bunch of BS lies and stats.
DS
you take the average of the whole season. Remember when you were talking about sample size well you can’t say the lions sucked after losing to the niners and say that they were good in the begining. They were a good team last year plain and simple no need for stats to prove that. Greenbay was a great team last year period. Cardinals were an average team as were the seahawks and the rams sucked.
Remember the Law of averages. The lions were going to lose at some point. But were a good 10-6 team whose to say they weren’t bad when they played the niners.
Based on your logic every single team that lost to the niners were sucking at that point in time and thus do not count towards any stats because you have to look at context. Context is what you make it and you try to use that to justify your opinion and use small sample sizes when you see it benefits you but then scream bloody murder if someone else does it.
The bucs were a horrible team last year and it wasn’t after the niners beat them. They were just a horrible team. Just because people talk you up you still have to play the whole season.
Law of averages and Context, you must look at the season as a whole and not during hot and cold streaks.
@Niner 4 life
You can’t use averages in this case. Averages assume that all things are equal. They were not. The Niners faced a lot of tough defenses last year. The Saints did not. Quality of defense is a key variable in this case since we are talking defense,and average does not even consider that. Green Bay did not have a good defense last year at all. Ask any GB fan. If you are taking about 3rd down conversions, you don’t look at other teams offenses. You look at their defense. Their QB or WR or OL mean nothing. Their DL/LB/CB’s do.
It might be better to use the ranks of each team when they played. That is better than a season rank. But, even that has its flaws. It does not take into consideration injury/recent performance/other variables. So that is not good either.
To do it, you would need a complicated mathematical formula to take into consideration a lot of variables which are would still be up for debate. One such variable would be the immense difference between the success of the Saints at home vs. the road. If they are all that, why the sudden drop off? Something is afoot.
Therefore it is easier and just as correct to say that the Niners faced a tougher defense week in and week out than the Saints did. And when the Saints played a tough defense (us) their numbers were not so much better than what we put up this season. While they were better, they were not so superior as the numbers made them out to be.
Like I said earlier. Numbers are no better than words. You need to know when and where to use them. Using the inappropriate word can get you into a lot of trouble, just like using the inappropriate number. If you don’t use the right word, your whole sentence and meaning loses out. Just like using the wrong stat. You need to know sentence structure to make sense. Knowing words alone won’t do it for you. And people use stats here only knowing words. Not the sentence structure necessary to get a meaningful conclusion. They think they have it. But they don’t.
And if Tampa sucked last year, you should have told the NFL that before they played us. They would not have spent so much time on ESPN talking about how great Freeman and company are. And, they were a winning team. The Saints could not beat them when the Bucs were a winning team. Only when they were a losing team.
@Niner 4 life
“Remember the Law of averages. The lions were going to lose at some point. But were a good 10-6 team whose to say they weren’t bad when they played the niners. ”
Have you learned about grouped data (may not use the same term I remember)?
The Lions wins were not spread out evenly over the year with their losses. They came in clumps. An even distribution would be to win 2, lose 1 (0.666 is close to their final win % of 0.625 which you get with 10-6 ). That is what you’d expect if it is evenly dispersed. That is not what you got though.
Win first 5 games (group 1)
Lost 3 of 5 the next 5 games (group 2)
Lost 3 of 6 (group 3) And mind you their last 3 wins were against really bad teams in the Raiders (only won by 1 point), Vikings (uewww), Charagers (could not catch the Broncos who would not have won any other division).
Graph that, and it looks really odd. A straight line average is not appropriate of wins. More like a hill decreasing in altitude quite a bit after the first 5 games. That looks rather fishy. And I can’t use that R square value I bet.
Compared to the Niners. Who never lost 2 straight games. (Detroit did 2 times. Keep in mind out of an n=11, not an n=16 since they won their first five games and judging from the first 5 games, why would the Lions lose again?) We won 9 straight games. There is no grouping of losses. That tells me our wins and our R square is going to be better.
The higher R2 value wins out. And that would be us. Get all that?
Not to get in to the middle of the math battle but…
“They were a good team last year plain and simple no need for stats to prove that.”
There is something to be said for the argument that teams that were doing well (or were expected to do well) seemed to tank after they played us.
The Lions, Eagles and Bucs seemed to come undone or slumped after we beat them.
Can’t put a stats thing on it for y’all but it sure seemed like we beat teams we weren’t supposed to beat and then that supposed superior team went on to crumble afterward (Detroit made somewhat of a comeback.)
OK, sorry for interrupting. Back to the math fight. :P
@Adam, “There is something to be said for the argument that teams that were doing well (or were expected to do well) seemed to tank after they played us.”
A lot of that had to do with how our defense just pounded teams last year. There was a piece I saw about halfway thru the year that showed how opposing teams’ starting running backs were often missing due to injury in their next game after playing our D. Shoot, that poor running back for Detroit from Cal missed the rest of the season after being concussed against us. Our D was bad to the bone.
@Adam
You could have added the Giants as well. They tanked for much of the season after their huge win over the Pats the previous week,they came here and lost.
Then they lost a bunch after that. If Dallas didn’t tank it at the end, the Giants don’t make the playoffs and both Eli and their HC are in hot water and possibly both are out of a job. Or at least if the NY fans had their way, they would have been.
My point is to not use stats. Use common sense. Tougher defenses are tougher to play well against than weak defenses or average defenses. Use the fact that the Niners somehow found ways to win games they were behind in. 6 of 14 games. And for all of history, the QB has always been the one that has been given credit for comeback games. And making big plays in the 4th quarter is more important than big plays in the 1st quarter. Common sense tells you the Saints are better on 3rd down. Common sense also tells you they had a lot easier schedule for their offense than the Niners did as well. Common sense tells you that the Saints flat out have more offensive talent outside of the QB positions. And common sense tells you that the QB will benefit from this. Whomever they may be. So, keep things in perspective.
JM always opens up why he won so many games by coming back by saying something like “Well, it is because I(we) didn’t play very well in the first 3 quarters. Wish I didn’t have to come back that often, and that I had the lead going into the 4th quarter.”
@DS, “And making big plays in the 4th quarter is more important than big plays in the 1st quarter.”
No it isn’t DS. If you make the big plays early and get up on your opponent you don’t need to be the hero late. Take the Ravens game that everyone is talking about because it is being replayed on NFL Network tonight.
If Smith doesn’t miss Walker early we score a TD. If Rachal doesn’t get called for the chop block on the TD to Ginn it is a TD. We make those plays and the 4th quarter is all about pounding the ball, and running out the clock instead of trying to play catch up.
Joe Montana always says it best when asked about all of his comebacks, “Well, it is because I(we) didn’t play very well in the first 3 quarters. Wish I didn’t have to come back that often, and that I had the lead going into the 4th quarter.”
No Jack
You are assuming the rest of the game plays out exactly the same if a missed play was made early on.
It won’t. If a team is down 7-0, and gives up another TD, and it makes it 14-0 to end the first half (as opposed to the score remaining 7-0) that can have an impact on how/what each team does come the second half of the game.
If the Niners went into halftime with a 14 point lead, they would play call the whole second half differently than if they went in with a 7-0 lead. Different play calls result in different results, and different results can result in, well, different results (losing or winning or losing or winning by fewer or more points).
Again. You think things happen in isolation. As a coach, I would hope you realize that nothing does. And there was not team that displayed the differences in play calling better than the Niners when scores changed, and when the team was behind or ahead better than the Niners. With a lead, the Niners shut it down with the aggressive play calling. When behind, they let AS do more. And guess what? AS lead them to 6 come back wins. Not too shabby.
Wow DS, thanks for telling me what I already said…
Read it again Jack
Keep in mind that making such plays in the 4th quarter dramatically decreases the odds of something happening later. For the simple fact that thee is not much “later” time left.
You didn’t say that at all. You referenced non-4th quarter plays.
The other team will change what they do depending on what you scored, or vice-versa. If Ginn gets that TD, then that has an impact on the how the Ravens call the game. Maybe the Ravens get into a groove as a result and beat the snot out of us instead of playing so tight (since the game was close).
4th quarter though, not much time to adapt or change. Make plays in the 4th quarter, you win the game. Make it in the first quarter, you score. Does not guarantee you a win anywhere near as much as the score in the 4th. Time effects play calls Jack.
DS, I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.
Those great teams of the 1980′s would often tear out the hearts of their opponents by making the big plays early, especially the ’88 and ’89 teams.
I can still see Rice catching that short crossing route and taking it to the house in the 1st quarter against Minnesota in the divisional game, and Rice catching that short curl and taking it to the house the next week against Chicago.
Even this year in the playoffs, Whitner blows Thomas up and not only keeps him from a TD, but forces a turnover to keep them from scoring. Then Goldson gets the pick, and we score a TD, then they fumble the kick and we get a field goal. Without those big plays we probably aren’t in position for the great comeback plays because we are too far behind.
Big plays are big plays regardless of when they occur.
@jack
“Those great teams of the 1980′s would often tear out the hearts of their opponents by making the big plays early, especially the ’88 and ’89 teams.”
They were great teams. And how often did JM’s teams score over 30+ a game average? If the hearts were torn out as you say, the scores should have been like the Tampa game this past season. Complete and total domination.
They weren’t Jack. Not even close. JM would not have had to make those comebacks if they did that all the time (scoring over 30 points).
And, how many people are talking about the big play AS made to VD to get that first TD in the title game, huh? None.
How many are talking about the big play AS throw to VD in the 4th quarter against NO? Yeah. A lot more.
If they are equal, then they both should get equal numbers of posts, right ? They are not equal jack. Not even close. The only reason is because the NO game TD won the game in the last seconds, and the Giants game they lost.
They were each big plays. Only one gets remembered by most people. The other is just forgotten. The one in the 4th quarter mattes most.
The more time you have to counter an event (big play), the better the odds are that you can succeed.
Translation: Big plays late in games are more vital than big plays early in games. Even though they are both big and they both result in the same number of points. They are not equal.
@DS, I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. I won’t change your mind so I am not going to waste my time trying.
That is good to know Jack.
damn dude…you just finished Grant…after you broke it down…his response was….
“If you keep telling people they suck or they’re frauds I’m going to have to put you on timeout for the day.”…..
……He his pulling the “I own the blog” card….ha ha ha……that was so juvenile……
FYI Grant…he didn’t write you sucked or called anyone a fraud….he wrote……”Your numbers are a fraud” ……and “you suck at stats”……
Dude…this is so funny….the site blogger is now twisting words ….lol…lmao
@oneniner
See the post where Niner4Life opens up his wrongful post saying:
“You are probably the biggest moron on a blog comment board I have ever read. ”
So that is ok on Grant’s scale of acceptable things. But like you said, me using the words “suck” and “fraud” are bad.
So, now we know which words are acceptable. And you are correct. I didn’t say Niner4life sucked, or that he was a fraud. You actually read my post so you know what I said. Grant and Niner4Life did not. They just write stuff once they see my name.
So, it was very fair and balanced on what he said and to whom. Not.
@Niner 4 life
Very good stats to contemplate. But, data like this scares the Smithers.
@DS
In order to defend Alex, you sway the argument to some mundane academic discussion of what/how to use statistics. S. Hill was better than AS on 3rd downs. The numbers back that up. There’s nothing mysterious about that.
@Nick
jack over here this that can’t will undo man woman world climate
There. Some words for you Nick. Do you understand the message I am conveying, or do I need to have some kind of working knowledge of sentence structure?
They teach this in Kindergarten Nick. Sentence structure. They know the words more than likely already. But you still need to know how to put them in such a way that is proper and makes sense. Problem is here though is that nobody bothered going to Kindergarten in stats, yet use it like they know everything because they can cut and paste and act like know it alls when they never took the class, or know when/why/how it matters.
@DS
So you took a JC class and now you’re an expert in statistics? That’s the funniest thing I’ve heard so far today. That’s a good one.
But Nick, some of the best stats teachers in the world have decided to teach at SRJC…
@Nick
And you know what about stats?
That is what I thought. Go to school. If you even graduated.
And again, reading comprehension Nick. I never said I was an expert. But I clearly have knowledge that you most certainly don’t. So between us, I am. Between a stats teacher and myself, I am not close.
Do you know what standard deviation is? Mean, mode, median? How many data points are really good to determine an average? No. You don’t I bet. Guess what. Most of those guys on ESPN don’t know either.
@jack
SRJC is ranked #3 in the entire nation among JC’s/community colleges. Think about all such schools in the the US. The hundreds, thousands that there are, and SRJC is ranked #3.
That is impressive. And you will get better teachers in JC’s as well. And this JC is ranked #3. So, yeah. The teachers must be really good. They are not ranked by research the school does. Only how good they are at teaching. And unlike Ivy league schools who can take only the best, the JC must by law take in everybody. Think about that before you spurt out a bunch of useless snide remarks.
Let’s just say it like it is – Alex Smith sucks. He has sucked for years. Some of that is his fault some of that is the poor coaching he had. Cam Newton has a horrible team and he still put up numbers. Smith has not produced despite having a Pro Bowl left tackle, Tight end, and running back. Smith Sucks. Yes, coach Nolan was bad and (pull donw your pants) Singletary was beyond aweful. Jimmy Raye may be the worst offensive coordinator I think I have ever witnessed…and his interviews were like Saturday Night Live skits. But let’s say it like it is – Smith over thinks everything and is not natural. He is a system QB and Harbaugh just needs to create a good enough system that Smith has less room to fail. Last year, Harbaugh and Roman were awesome. They eliminated the read routes for Smith and only allowed Alex line of sight routes. This made Alex feel more comfortable with what the receivers were doing and allowed him to focus on memorizing the play book. Alex is not good at improvising…heck he was an accounting manager. Snore! :) almost every other QB in the league can make a play out of a broken play, except Mr Smith. But because of Harbuagh’s great system, Smith was able to slightly seperate himself from the worst QB’s in the league last year…but, Smith has to do it again this year. If not, he will be out of football.
Last year, Roman was way too conservative when the 9ers got in the red zone. But they had to keep the offense conservative, because when they tried to open it up… ala the Ravens game or redskins game… Smith played horribly and almost lost the games.
Unfortunately, the 9ers were not able to make an upgrade at QB in the off-season, but I am glad they did not pick up another back-up QB for a high salary… I am glad that they signed Smith to a bargain price of $8M per year. That is very low for proven (I use that word loosley) QB starters.
And you say Smith is a good QB, no one wanted him in FA, that is why he is a 9er again. Miami and other teams in desperate need of a QB interviewed him and then said, “I will pass and rather draft a QB.”
BTW – Trent Baalke deserves a ton of respect for the way he negotiated with Smith… Signing Manning would have been nice but $95M for a guy that is one hit away from another najor injury is not a wise investment.
Well said
I agree…what you don’t see on a stat sheet is confidence. Confidence in your boss and the people you work with but like Harbaugh once said…If i’m a betting man, my money is on Smith to have a great season (paraphrase).
You wouldn’t throw Albert Pujols a wiffle ball and expect him to hit a homerun so, you’re only as good as the tools you have.
I’m not knocking Alex or previous receivers. Football is the ultimate team sport and that includes coaching’s ability to put it all together…”Including the building up of Confindence”
Great Job Coach Harbaugh!!! As a Niner fan, I’m excited for year 2.
You can’t sit and compare Smith’s 3rd down percent to QB’s like rodgers, manning, Brees, or romo. They all have offensive schemes that are completely different than that the 49ers run. They all run 3,4,5 WR sets and out of the gun. Flacco I would say is a good comparison because they’re offense is similar to ours, but clearly the ravens have a lot better of a receiving core as well as Marc Sanchez and the Jets . It’s obvious Alex is bad in 3rd down and has much room for improvement but a lot of it falls on the shoulders of the whole offense and the OC.
Grant,
I have one even better. Riddle me this. Why is it, that we arent satisfied with a QB that just took us to the championship game. Dont matter if it’s A. Smith or whomever. We are one of the laughing stock franchises now because of a fan base that most are never happy. Even as an article writer for our beloved team. IN the beginning you seemed so non- biased and looked and wrote articles from both sides. Now in a way you’ve become a fairweather reporter, that now has an agenda, just like this article here. And that agenda seems to be comparing to other Qb’s or pointiong out flaws that any startin QB may have.
Overall, you used to be soo non-biased. I dont know what happened but u were better when u could write an article about how bad he may be on third down. Then actually write an article from the other aspect pointing out the truths of the O-line, WR’s etc.
Even with the WR’ it’s funny Jerry Rice said that our Receivers scare no one, and Crabs gained no separation in a lot of our games. And your reply that it’s the QB that makes it happen. Well what about those teams that have WR’s that catch almost 1000yds, and have maybe two Qb’s throwing to them. Dont pee on my cereal and tell me it’s oatmeal.
Just like we say with Smith, I say about our WR core. No one to even break a sweat about, and thats regardless of who the QB is.
I’ll say this, then end it here. All last year, people talked about how our o-line sucked but is not as bad as others right. they saw what they wanted to see. But hassellback himself came out and said he didnt want to because of our o-line and protection. So u tell me, who’s the one to believe. The writers like yoou that say hey it’s not that bad and any star QB can make it work. Well now a pretty proven QB is telling you it cant work. Who’s the foolish one. Not the QB because he looks at the reality, not what he thinks.
Hasselbeck didn’t say that at all. He didn’t say they were horrible or bad he just said he liked the titans line more. here is the quote
“I felt good about that, but at the end of the day, I think my conversation with the head coach and the offensive line here (in Tennessee) … a lot of stuff just felt really good about it.”
The titans do have a good Oline.
Niner 4 life, you just made my point. I mean come on, we can read between the lines. If you actually point out the offensive line, and saying that it’s a part that you talked about then obviously it was a selling point. And when u compare then in a way he is saying that we at least for the most part dont have a good o-line. So as a result, like all of our beat writers wrote about. Us having a horrible line, is one of the reasons he didnt come here. NOt the main, but one of the key factors.
The only thing you can say for sure is that he thought the Titans line was better than the Niners line. Reading between the lines is just opinion. If you choose Aaron rodgers over drew brees as your starting QB and said Aaron Rodgers fit better does that mean Drew Brees is a bad QB? No it means you thought Aaron rodgers was better. Same thing here Hasselbeck didn’t say the niners line was bad he just said he liked the titans better.
Last two columns prove it was a bad idea to take the blog year round, especially in these slack periods when there’s nothing of value to write about.
What gives you that idea ribico?
: – )
Shaun Hill having a better third down conversion rate on the Niners than Alex Smith has had is definitely valuable information.
Hill had Issac Bruce
Hill had a healthier FG
Hill had the great excitement of Coach Sing when he took over the team.
Once Hill didn’t have Issac Bruce playing well, and the excitement over Coach Sing wore off, and Raye ran FG into a wall, Hill looked no better than AS Grant. And no matter what you say, once AS took over, Hill was done as a Niner.
Ds smith could have had those below average wr too, but Shaun hill beat him out.
If Hill beat out AS, why didn’t they keep Hill?
>>Shaun Hill having a better third down conversion rate on the Niners than Alex Smith has had is definitely valuable information.
You’re kidding, right?
TBH, I’m not expecting a huge offensive gain over last season. Prediction: it’s going to drive the haters bonkers (with the exception of md. him, extra-bonkers). And it’s going to be fun to reference these silly columns when the Niners and Smith are hoisting the Lombardi next year. Just like that “Niners Must Sign Tebow” fiasco of a joke.
Hill had a better 3rd down percentage…lol. Grant, only in yours, Jordo, md’s, and bay’s world does that matter. Back here in the real world, we’ll take the wins.
3rd down is kind of important.
@ribico
The wins come courtesy of the defense, special teams, and smart coaching – NOT good QB play.
yes, grant. So important it prevented 49ers from rolling up best record in the league except for one team with a weak-a$$ schedule. Oh, wait. no it didn’t.
I love how you are wandering around in a beautiful forest, obsessing on that one tree.
…ribico….i swear he his wandering around in a beautiful forest, obsessing on that one tree…….lmao…lol
@ribico
….in full agreement.
@ Everybody. This is like a theological debate, everybody’s mind is pre-determined on Alex. Either you like him or you don’t.
Ds. Of all those quaterbacks u just named., wich D kept manning n the giants in check. Your making no sense. When you throw stats out there its “look at me now”. But when someone else gives u stats its “you dont know how to use them”. You cant hold smiths hand then try n downplay the fact that ppl are telling you why hes not so good. i mean seriously, do u ever read what u write because you contradict yourself alot. D you realise you are the only person on this planet who believes Alex Smith is Elite. And the sad thing is no matter who tells you otherwise, rather its another blogger or an expert ananlyst like adam shefter chris mortensen chris berman any of the nfl network guys or espn guys or hell even Grant himself, you will come up with a reason that “they dont know wat their talking about, cant prove it, your logic is better, etc.”. Only thing that proves is as colin cowheard would say ” when me and the rest of the world see things right about a player and he lets you know about it, its not hating, hes telling you the truth and your just a HOMER”
Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Kurt Warner, Rich Gannon
Guys who played the position and appeared in a total of
4+4+3+1 = 12 Super Bowls and won 9 of them have all said to give this a chance.
The list of Super Bowls by your guys (not even QB’s) is 0
Guess who has more sway with me? Go on. Guess
Hey Grant, I have to say that a while back when us getting Tebow was just a thought, you immediately jumped the gun, and started to run with it a bit. Even tho if i remember, even your father wrote a rebuttal argument saying the opposite…
I remember they asked a few stars on NFL network, what if your team made a run for Tebow, whats the first statement you’d make, and most said ” My first question would be why, and what did we do wrong?” “Tebow has not done enough to show he can be a starting QB just yet.
So my question to you is.
Are you saying that Tebow is a better overall QB than Smith? Just wondering???
No, it was probably a statistical aberration that Tebow was better on third down in ’11 than Smith was. It’ll probably never happen again. But the fact that it happened at all is mind-blowing.
@Grant
WRONG WRONG WRONG
Tebow thrives under pressure. He is a big game QB. 3rd down is the $$$ down. It’s no surprise that he outperforms Alex on the $$$ down. None.
It’s not like Tebow “thrived” on third down last season; he just slightly outperformed Smith.
So, one HUGE game, for all the marbles, infinite pressure… Smith or Tebow?
Not thrilled with either one PBL. Can I take what’s behind door number 3?
@Grant:
Even though I am no fan of this post, Sando gave you a link on his NFCWest blog:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/62272/around-the-nfc-west-nfl-runway-models
Well, hey!
I thought that would brighten your day. Congratulations.
Thanks, Claude.
@Grant
You should aspire to be mentioned on Sando’s blog every day. Yesterday, because you had the only worthwhile article written about the team, he mentioned you. Keep this type of fun stuff up. Give us some more. Do you go to the facility and just hang out with the guys during the offseason, or would that be too “fan”ish?
..yup he needs to brighten this sad day….DS is killing today!!!!!
Why do people talk about the New Orleans game like alex smith had a good game, he had an awful game (1-15 3rd downs). Let me educate the slower posters, the niners defense and special teams had 5 turn overs 5!!!! We should have won by 3 td’s at least, due to alex’s ineptitude we had to have a last second come back. Alex will not be the starter for the niners past mid way in the season. They didn’t bring Moss and Mario in to catch screen passes from alex, colin has a mans arm.
exactly!!!! 5 turnovers and you still have to comeback and win.
@pigskin, Let me refresh your memory if you don’t mine ! Alex smith for one thing 3rd down conversation was 4/15 and brees had 5/14 3rd down conversation, both smith and brees were identical stats.. You’re wrong and stop with these educating people it makes you look like a fool. Alex Smith had 103.2 QB rating , 3TDS , 0 Int and 299 yds pass completion 24/42, compare to D Brees 40/63..w/ 2 INT with a 93.5 QB rating.. So in your own opinion A. Smith didn’t a have a very good day ? Its hard to believe that he didn’t have a good day against the saints..
49er man… Did smith play a defense like brees played that game? Nope. Smith beat brees in the final minutes. Which was huge, but 1 game isn’t going to cut it, he came out the next weekend and laid an egg. Get the inconsistent play now?
You are slow and you should get slapped for mentioning drew brees with alex smith.. 4 for 15 still stinks and no alex smith didn’t have a good game, our defense and special teams spotted him within the 10 yard line on turn overs and field goal field goal. If alex played well they wouldn’t of had to come back in the last 1:37 in a game where the defense and st had 5 turn overs, you get 5 turn overs you bury a team. Here are some stats for you, 29th ranked passing offense worst qb in the red zone when the niners had the best starting field position in the league playing in the worst division. You’re a moron.
@Pigskin, before you start calling people names in the blogg. Better understand the question, rather than answering it with idiotic comment. Your were talking about the Alex game against the saints in the playoff? I gave you a better idea what transpired in that game, and you answered it back with an dumb comment..
I won’t call you names, cause your IQ says it all.. Your intelligence is beyond repairable..
@ninerMd, Are you really in denial that smith had 3 TD and played well in the saints game? Only eggs that we can see is in your head…lol Go away troll..
He played terrible which is why they had to comeback even though defense and special teams forced 5 turn overs lol. That game should not have been close.
@pigskin, What planets did you come from ? It seems that you guys keep saying BS everytime you fools post..
And Grant you’re no different from this fools..
Manila…. Who the hell are you? Another bandwagon 49er fever fan. Don’t walk on my stage and ask me to exit rookie. Smith had two drives in that game. 5 turnovers. Again 5 turnovers and we still had to pull out a miracle. Smith in that game earned stripes for the last two drives. The est of the game was mediocre. Any elite qb with a 5 turnover gift wouldn’t have to bring their team back in the last 2 minutes. And smith did lay an egg in the next game. Care to dispute that FACT anymore? Rd 1 goes to me son. Rd 2 and I’m waiting.
….here we go again….walk on your stage?…….dude you are the biggest loser if you think your comments on the blog matters in life….trust me when you are not here no one cares…….its just like you to think cuz you buy tickets everyone should bow to you and call you super fan…..dude you are a true loser!!!!!
@Grant, Tell everyone here, which team played the NY Giants better in the playoffs , Packers or the 49ers ?? And which team is the more dominant team against the Giants in the NFC playoffs. What happen to A. Rogers in the playoff if his so great? Even if A. Smith didn’t get the, 3rd down conversion that everyone is whining about, atleast he contributed to try to win, unfortunately they came so close in getting to the SB, if it wasen’t for K. Willaims 2 miscues. we won’t have this conversation about a. Smith….
Smith failed just like Rodgers did. That’s all that matters. Smith isn’t close to Rodgers level. Period. What ifs don’t mean squat. So now that smith lost like Rodgers did. Do you have anything else as to why smith is even in the same conversation as Rodgers?
ninermd, Can you please share what your smoking…lol
NinerMd, First thing i’d like to know. Nobody is comparing Alex with Rogers. Nobody is calling AS an elite QB nor anyone is putting his name among the greatest QB’s.
Even alex doesn’t consider himself as an elite QB. Its getting old and annoying to keep on hearing from some of you guys who keeps on insulting and bashing the kid. Hes not even saying anything in the media that his great QB.
zito,
Theres no doubt that the niners were the best team in the NFC Playoff ! I notice during the regular season last year when the niners were on a winning streak, all the critics were quiet, and the majority of the 49er fans was riding high in the A. Smith banwagon.
Its just sad that
Shea McClellan, OLB Boise St.- How happy would the Godfather be to have this guy added to his linebacker corps? End of 1st Round is where you would have to take him.
28 year old former Rams center Jason Brown will visit the Niners this weekend according to Adam Caplan.
Brown (6-3, 320 lbs.) would presumably pique the Niners interest as potential competition for Daniel Kilgore at right guard this season.
The Ravens drafted Brown in the fourth round of the ’06 draft. The Rams signed him to a five-year, $37.5 million contract in ’09 to play center, but he failed and eventually lost his job to Tony Wragge last season before getting cut this offseason.
Adding tomatoes to red pepper bisque produces an unexpected but welcome piquancy.
Alex as a QB is not “elite”, there is no factual support for that position. Alex as a QB also does not “suck” either. The facts don’t support that position.
Alex right now is about an average starting QB in the NFL. The Niner offense as a whole has been pretty poor. The real questions are can Alex improve and can the offense improve this year? I think the answer is yes based on this being the first time in years the team as had the same offense two years in a row and that the players have been upgraded.
Is Alex “the answer” at QB? I don’t know. I frankly have my doubts, but I do think this year we will get the answers. Alex and the offense needs to improve. It needs to have longer drives and needs to score a touchdown or more per game than it did last year. If it does we will have a very good year. If it doesn’t we will have a new starting QB by the end of the year.
But how much can Smith improve on third down? Is this his Achilles heel?
Here are his best third down performances of his career: 8-16 vs. Dallas in ’11, 8-13 vs. Philly in ’10, 8-16 vs. Jax in ’09, 8-16 vs. AZ in ’09.
Here were Hill’s best third down performances as a Niner: 6-8 in one half @ Min in ’07, 9-15 the next week vs. Cin, 9-18 @ AZ in ’08, 8-15 vs. NYJ in ’08, 8-17 the next week @ Mia.
My finger hit something before I could finish with a zinger..and it was: Ironic that Singletary said he wants winners..had one in Hill..and then trade him away for a 49career loser.
49….. It’s good to see another realist up on this sucka. Good post.
Your talking about Shaun Hill?..ahhh,he was like an atheist Tebow..nothing but complaints on how he looked,but all he did was win.
You could say it’s a QB predjudice,standards of the NFL.
I
All he did was convert third downs at a respectable rate.
Why is a raider fan on here? Stan go to the black hole and worry about your pathetic team. There’s grown folks talking here. Scram kid
I thought this was interesting…
From ESPN,who have given the Niners an A grade in free agency this off season ! This from Matt Williamson of ESPN…
“Analysis: The 49ers are returning the league’s best defense intact, even though they had a few prominent players’ contracts expire. While they flirted with Peyton Manning (and to me, this is where Manning should have chosen to play), they have significantly improved their offense since the NFC Championship Game. What is curious is that while San Francisco clearly made a massive effort to improve the verticality of its offense with the additions of Moss and Manningham and even the re-signing of Ginn, Smith really isn’t an adept downfield passer. Still, the new perimeter speed should open up room for the rest of San Francisco’s offense while allowing Jim Harbaugh to utilize more multiple-receiver sets, which obviously is the direction offense in the NFL has gone. It also wouldn’t shock me if Colin Kaepernick — and his huge arm — finds his way behind center before long.”
*Now Grant,I did quote that mention of alex ,so it should get you a few more hits on the site…BUT PLEASE,why not an Alex free blog next ?
How about the new stadium ground breaking?
How about talking about the A grade ESPN gave the team in free agency?
How about that little think coming up later this Month,you know,the Draft?
How about an interview with a couple players or coaches without asking them about Alex,lol). ?
Whats wrong with Alex topics? It would be nuts if HE DIDNT mention Alex on a 49er blog-AND OFTEN.
Williamson’s piece subtly introduced a hugely Alex-centric topic for people to argue about…
But guys,we have done the Alex thing to death and most of us agree with Grant and with almost every other so called expert alive,that alex is rather mediocre and we need an upgrade at QB. Some few fans don’t agree with that and we have heard their attempts to argue their minority side of the issue until our ears fall off,and they have heard the other 99% of us argue our points.
There is plenty of time to talk about Alex and his possible future when he actually does something new. Right now there is really nothing new to add to the 7-8 year journey of our journeyman QB.
Besides,I am not asking to never talk about him again until he shows something on the field to talk about.I am just asking that every blog doesn’t turn into an Alex blog and that we,as fans of the same team,can talk as adults about all the other aspects of OUR team.
There are so many subjects that we probably all agree on and many subjects that we all would enjoy exploring and having adult conversations about.
@TIM:
most of us agree with Grant and with almost every other so called expert alive,that alex is rather mediocre and we need an upgrade at QB. Some few fans don’t agree with that and we have heard their attempts to argue their minority side of the issue until our ears fall off,and they have heard the other 99% of us argue our points.
Wow, you are delusional. What color is the sky in your world?
…Or we could just continue to hate on each other all day,every day,because we disagree about Alex. But I don’t come here for that,I come here to enjoy talking about my Niners and to learn from reading about other fans opinions and learning from the insights the beat writers and bloggers have,etc.
I don’t think I’m in the 1% for supporting Smith but nice play on the numbers.
…Sorry Claude. I thought you were living in the real World,where almost every single commentator on Earth agrees that Alex is rather mediocre.
Besides,I really don’t want to get into that as you can see from my previous posts on the subject.
I love the fact that you love Alex ! Don’t give up the faith ! Hopefully one day alex will earn the loyalty you have given him.
Go Niners !
…See GRANT…Even if you try to be fair ,there is just too much hate on the Alex subject. Why not throw some water on the fire and let it cool down a while and blog on somethiung else? You can always put Alex’s name in a headline in a few days if your hits go down too much and your boss is getting upset with you .
@Tim No hate here. I cant speak for others but I like talking about the Niners I just think people get to personal with some of the remarks.
…And Waterman:
We all should “support” Alex ,like you say you do,when he is on the field of play wearing the Niners uniform ! It should be 100% support ! But you know I was not speaking of “support” but of talent level and wheather or not we need an upgrade at that position.
…But what do you think of the new stadium or who should we draft or who will start at RG etc etc etc ???
Tim, I hope we find a good guard I’m getting nervous thinking about our line but lets hope they find another gem in FA or Kilgore or whatever is the next Bowman type player.
@TIM:
It’s easy. Prove what you wrote:
(1) Almost every “expert”/commentator on Earth agrees that Alex Smith is rather mediocre and that the 49ers need an upgrade at QB;
(2) 99% of the commenters on this board think that Smith is rather mediocre and that the 49ers need to upgrade at QB.
Go ahead, TIM, prove it. Back up your big words.
It’s not “hating” to ask you to back up your outlandish statements. It’s simply calling you on your non-stop b/s.
Sorry again Claude: I should have said 99% of every commentator that I have ever heard or read etc. There may be severeal out there that I have not read or heard that agree with you,I just have not found them (but I read and listen to just about anything and everything Niners that exists,so …). It wasn’t a poll or anything ,LOL ! As I always say,JMHO
Claude:
What do you think we will do about the RG spot?
Do you like the stadium situation?
Do you think we will draft a RB and WR and Guard ,or what ?
@TIM:
I should have said 99% of every commentator that I have ever heard or read etc.
I call b/s on that made up number as well. Prove it.
There may be severeal out there that I have not read or heard that agree with you,I just have not found them (but I read and listen to just about anything and everything Niners that exists,so …)
How very passive-aggressive of you. You cannot help yourself, can you?
As I always say,JMHO
No, you don’t present your positions as just “your” opinion. That’s the point. You consistently throw in weight-makers like “as 99% of the experts have said,” “as everyone here agrees,” and “only a small number of fans disagree,” etc. You consistently make up numbers to suggest that your opinion is shared by many/most and that opposing opinions are in a distinct minority.
If you are so unsure about your opinions that you have to make up support for them, perhaps you should hold off on expressing them. Perhaps you could avoid further Nate Davis type embarrassments that way.
By the way, don’t confuse my calling you on your b/s with my expressing the diametrically-opposed opinion.
Tim, I agree..
Grant can’t resist using A. Smith as the topic because he needs A. Smith than Alex needs him.. Without an Alex Smith conversation, Nobody would even post in his board…lol
I would post here because for the most part I like the fans who frequent this board. But one subject all day every day gets a little tiresome. (even though I am as responsible for keeping it going as anyone. ). I would just like a little break from that one subject until something new comes up on that subject.
Then stop commenting on that subject.
Claude:
I have already cut way back on that subject . Perhaps you will join me and for at least a while you and I can find several subjects that we can fully agree on ,or at least that we can discuss like adults? I look forward to that !
I would post here too. The cast of characters on this board is more entertaining than any show on TV.
I find Grants takes to be very interesting, and appreciative the back and forth he provides. My suggestion would be read his posts a couple of times and think about the point he is presenting for a bit prior to commenting.
@JH
I find Grants takes to be very interesting, and appreciative the back and forth he provides…
Back and forth…until someone ask which I think is a fair question, then it’s no “back”. Unable or unwilling. LOL
BigP/Grant tries to say Niners running game is so good on 3rd downs, #7 in NFL. I’m questioning the link he provided is all 3rd down runs, that’s all.
Simple question, still waiting for answer.
Maybe you can comment on that, if you care. No biggie.
AlbertS,
Give me about an hour and I will check into it for you. Right now I am doing 80 on Northbound I-5 and can’t give your question the attention it deserves.
@JH
No biggie.
I won’t be on the web till tonight myself.
Thanks.
@Grant
Care to charm in on this, since you got BigP’s back.
I posted a reply earlier…
@BigP
Smith was #32 in the NFL on 3rd and short passing conversions…
Sure. But look at the sample size, many are under 10 throws. Look at 3rd and long, Smith actually had better numbers than Flacco, Sanchez, Hasselback, Manning just to name a few. So what?
The running game was ranked #7 in the NFL on 3rd down conversion %, which is very good.
Where does it say it was all 3rd down runs? Maybe I missed it. Your “3rd down conversion %”, where did you see that?
I remember they broke out some long runs when it was 1st and 2nd downs to gain 1st downs.
@AlbertS
You are somebody who at the very least understands the principles of stats with your breakdown of so called FACTS.
Well done.
“Does Smith deserve all the blame? No. Offensive linemen have to block and wide receivers have to get open and catch the ball, and Smith hasn’t had the best offensive line or wide receivers over the years.”
Grant – I’m glad you mentioned this, because it’s a fair statement (in addition to your Roman play calling point). I also think 3rd downs needs to be broken down to run v. pass attempts/success (could be by the yardage breakdowns you presented) *and* “avg X yds/3rd down” data…where X equals the yards needed to convert the 1st down. It would be nice to see how the 49ers compared to other teams in those areas. Obviously a team having a low “X amount” (ex: 3 yds) should be more successful converting 3rd downs than teams having a high “X amount” (ex: 5 yds).
BTW…the 49ers were NFL #2 BEST in converting 4th downs in 2011, so does Alex get credit for that?
I will disagree with you about the 49ers having a better pass-protecting line than what Aaron Rodgers has in Green Bay. As other have noted, the 49ers gave up 44 sacks last year (36 sacks for Green Bay), but let’s also remember that Frank Gore was consistently left “in” to help pass block, because the OL couldn’t handle it on their own. This directly affects the ability for the 49ers to have a safety valve (like Rathman and others in WC offenses past) and it makes the play calling very predictable (no other RBs could pass block, so defenses knew it was a run when Gore was on the sidelines). Let’s also not forget about a couple of weeks where the 49ers OL was on the hot-seat and were saying “we’re not as bad as this”, after being bullied by Baltimore (9 sacks) and Dallas (6 sacks).
Lastly, comparing Alex and Shaun Hill’s % is a reference only; not a factual reflection of success *without* looking at all the variables going into those averages. Did the OL give up less sacks? Was Gore averaging more yards per run (he was younger)? Was the average “X amount” to convert a first down lower? Was the amount of total 3rd down attempts lower, therefore creating a higher % of success?
All % stats aside, go look at films of Shaun Hill’s last games as a 49er. Defenses were flooding the line of scrimmage (to stop the run) because they knew Hill couldn’t pass downfield if his life depended on it. That’s how/why Alex found his way back on the field…
+1
I would get upset if someone told me I love Alex Smith. I love the 49ers and I hope Alex Smith is highly productive. I have seen the bad and more bad and now some good from Smith and I believe he will improve more this year. If he does not play better we will have a new starting QB. I also believe Smith did not lose us any games last year and helped us win a few so that’s a HUGE improvement from years before. If there was a better QB available that we could agree to a contract they would have signed him. He will be the starter next year. He is a 49er. I support Alex Smith.
Although I don’t agree with every single thing you wrote I compliment you for being very fair Waterman !!!
Thank you Tim.
99% against
1% for
An amazing unbiased bit of information that makes my day. I’m pumped, and will head out soon to walk six miles just to burn off the euphoria.
Waterman,
Damn near brought me to tears! Lol yes, you do love the Niners. You’re an Alex lover as well. Don’t let that make you angry. You are not alone!
Let’s also remember last yuear was year #1 of Alex and the Offensive Group running the Harbaugh/Roman offense *without* a full/legitinate off-season. They didn’t even use the full playbook, so 2012 will open up some new offensive wrinkles.
When will the excuses stop? It seems like this time every year we hear the same damn thing- “Just wait ’til next year when Alex will prove you wrong!” He got 2 years worth of guaranteed money, but I’m sure after year 10 in this man’s career we will be hearing the same bull$hit we hear every off-season. Wait ’til next year!!!
Let’s see, there were effectively two years lost to injury, two years lost to Singletary’s offensive ideas (pun intended), and a clearly improved performance in his first season with Harbaugh (without an off-season by the way) in which the team went 13-3.
Yeah, that buys him another year in my book.
By the way, even though I do not know what your position was prior to 2011, I am comfortable concluding that Smith already proved you wrong last year.
Personally I feel it’s like every position, every player and every coach is evaluated and asked: Can we get better at this position? The answer is yes we can get better. Either the player improves or another is brought in that you feel can be an upgrade. It will be an interesting training camp and pre-season. Rest assured the best man will win the job. Coach Harbaugh has said as much. My hunch is that Alex Smith wins the job. His character it would seem to me is strong enough to knock that huge boulder off his shoulder. I think he responds in his 2nd year and delivers the goods
.
The problem with this headline is huge. Alex Smith’s problems on third down,
It should of read Alex Smith’s problems on every down.
Hey Grant why not a topic on the WCO. For instance the inception of it to the variations of it. From what I can see here a lot of people in here dont have a clue about the WCO. What type of players are needed to fill the positions, the stratigies of it. Why its so effective and what the defense needs to do to counteract it? I know that topic will require some research on your part and hopefully if you should explore the topic you dont turn it into an AS bashing event. Some of us like football and are really tired of the pros and cons of AS. I know Hof, Claude bell, Tim, Jack, Big P., AES and others would relish something of this nature. It will test their FOOTBALL knowledge and propable yours too. Enough of the AS crap it is what it is and its not going to change anyones mind.
@undercenter
You can add my name to that list as well.
DS you betcha not sure why I didnt mention in the first place – its time to talk football dont ya think instead of all this AS crap?
Yeah undercenter
I know. You scan this blog by Grant, and you barely can find a single post of mine.
: – )
I hope Grant plays it fair. And his next post is about the OL issues on 3rd down. What they did wrong and such.
Then the RB’s, then the WR, then the TE’s. Do the same for each unit of the 3rd down problem and Grant will be onto something cool.
If not, Grant is just playing down to the lowest common denominator. Blame AS for Niners winning 14 games instead of 16 games. Needless to say Grant can either gain or lose a lot of respect from me in the near future.
What did Frank Gore average per carry on 3rd down?
I don’t know stats but I do have the eye test. My eyes say that we sucked most of the time running on third down. We sucked passing on third down. The play calling also was not the best on third downs. That’s how I saw it.
Isn’t it interesting that the Niners did not suck on third down a few seasons ago when Shaun Hill was the QB? He played on a worse Niner team – worse players, worse coaches. 40% on third down. What do you make of that?
No Grant
He had Issac Bruce playing well. When Issac Bruce went down the next season, Hill stank. He sure was not benched for playing well. AS came in for a reason. And for a reason, Hill never played as a Niners again.
Perspective Grant.
“He was benched for a reason.” Yeah, Singletary benched him. You pick and choose when to support his judgement?
Then AS threw 3 TD’s to VD immeditely after benching him.
And I don’t see at all what me supporting or not supporting MS has anything to do with Hill.
By the way, I thought MS did a crap thing to Hill. If not for Hill, Sing is not even hired and given a huge paycheck.
I supported Hill and I still like the guy. I think he would have thrived here under JH as well. But the fact is Hill is not here. Fact is Hill never took another snap (I believe) as a Niner QB after AS replaced him. Fact is Hill only got a 7th round pick for us in the trade. Fact is he is backing up there as well.
My opinion, I think Hill is just as good at winning games as Stafford. I don’t remotely care what his 3rd down conversion rate was/is. Hill won games. Hill won games for Detroit late in 2010 as well giving Detroit some needed hope coming into 2011.
If I were a Lions fan, I would want Hill. Hill won’t throw the game away. Stafford will/has. But I am not. I am a Niners fan. And the Niners starting QB is AS.
The Niners still lost to the Texans.
Hill won 6 games for detroit in 2010. Stafford won 10 games for detroit in 2011. Who is better at winning games?
@Grant
Make you a deal.
You admit AS won 14 games this year and I’ll agree that game the Niners had no business even being in the 4th quarter was lost with AS playing QB for 1 half.
Deal? Both statements are factual.
I’m not sure what to think of that. I remember Hill winning a few games but for some reason we didn’t stick with him.
grimey
hill played 10 games in 2010. Don’ ‘t know how many starts. Likely 9 since Stafford was hurt.
Either way Hill had a winning record 6wins out of 9 starts. That comes to a good win % of .666. Or 0.6 if 10 starts.
Stafford was 0.625. Either way Hill had a good win %. As good as Stafford. And Stafford stumbled to the finish line going 5-6 after losing to us. Hill finished strong. Like many champions do. Just like AS.
Actually Hill played 11 games, 3 of which the lions won.
@grimey
Where are you getting that Grimey.
http://www.nfl.com/player/shaunhill/2504833/profile
Hill started 10 games and played in 11. He threw 16TD and 12 Int. Not bad. I’d be surprised if he was below 0.500 in 2010. I’d expect at least 1 game over 0.500.
And I know Hill finished the year beating the Lions and Vikings with 2 wins.
I still think he is better at winning games than Stafford was. Stafford took the Lions who were hot at the end to 5-0. Then lost. Then went 5-6 to end the season.
here’s what I was looking at 2010 game logs.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/4260/year/2010/shaun-hill
Thanks Grimey.
That first game was against Chicago. Pretty good defense more than not. Here is how that first loss went down according to wikipedia
“Hill threw 9 receptions on 19 attempts with 88 yards and one interception leading Detroit to within the 30 yard line with under 30 seconds to go. Hill threw what seemed to be the game winning touchdown but was later ruled incomplete by a technicality in the NFL rule book, which is now being referred to as the “Calvin Johnson Rule”
Look at Hill’s stat line that day (your link). Under 40 QBR. Must mean he sucked, right? Not. Just another reason why stats suck in football.
Anyway, that was a pretty tough schedule he had there. Most of those teams (GB won the Super Bowl, Chicago – hosted NFC Title game, Philly – made playoffs, NYG – Eli Manning and a tradition of winning at the Giants, Dallas – could suck or be the best team ever depending on the game and even the play, NE – enough said,.
Those 6 teams he lost to, a bunch of teams lost to them. No harm or respect lost losing to them. Only getting blown out by Dallas in Dallas and NE in NE.
Still like him more. Tough competitor. Even when MS benched him. Stafford, head down and looked lost and just throws the ball up there too often for my liking.
GC, as much as I like SHill, if he were starting material, he would not be a top backup in Det. He’s 32 – we’ve definitely seen his ceiling.
drs, here are Gores 3rd down stats from last year…
3rd (or 4th) down and 9+ yards to go 5 22 4.4 18 0 1 8 8.0 8 0 0 0
3rd (or 4th) down and 3-8 yards to go 12 30 2.5 20 0 1 8 8.0 8 0 0 0
3rd (or 4th) down and 1-2 yards to go 15 24 1.6 11 0 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0
Jack — Grant: Not sure what the rest of the NFL running backs averaged on 3rd down, but if we’re going to say that Smith stank then it would seem that we have to say Gore stank. If we’re going to imply that we should move away from Smith because of his 3rd down numbers, then it would seem that we have to say the same about Gore.
I think it’s just not that simple.
drs, I went through all of the plays for the first game against Seattle, to your point, on 3rd down there were 10 runs to 2 passes – they were 1-12 on 3rd down – the one conversion was an AS pass. Some of that was on the new offense, the blocking, etc. It was on the offense but AS should get the blame as the guy that touches the ball on every down on offense. Let’s see how they do this year.
drs, Gore was only slightly better than Smith on 3rd and < 3 at 46% compared to 36% for Smith. I am using this distance because it is the only one that is the same for both players.
Below is a link to all of the stats I just mentioned along with an interesting article I found on the subject of 3rd down conversion rates. Although it is from 2008 I think it still applies nicely.
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFC&type=Rushing&rank=016&year=2011
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d80ae2bf7/article/firstdown-success-is-the-key-to-thirddown-conversions
drs, Gore was only slightly better than Smith on 3rd and < 3 at 46% compared to 36% for Smith. I am using this distance because it is the only one that is the same for both players.
I will post the link to the stats in another post below. Hopefully it will go through this time.
Below is a link to all of the stats I just mentioned along with an interesting article I found on the subject of 3rd down conversion rates. Although it is from 2008 I think it still applies nicely.
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFC&type=Rushing&rank=016&year=2011
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d80ae2bf7/article/firstdown-success-is-the-key-to-thirddown-conversions
More stats: The 1981 49ers converted 43.77 percent of their third downs. 5-14 in the divisional playoff game against the Giants; 4-10 in the conference championship against the Cowboys; 8-15 in the Super Bowl against the Bengals. That offense did not have a single game in which they converted two or fewer first downs.
Grant, you have to do some research before you make claims like this. You can’t just say “when Smith was on the field, the 49ers were ____ on 3rd downs.” It’s a useful stat in gaging the Niners offense, but it proves nothing statistically about Smith, as it lumps the Niners woeful run game along with it. Now, as it happens, I agree with you. I went through every game, play-by-play, and it’s true: Alex is not great on third downs: he has a roughly 34% third and fourth down conversion rate. This includes scrambles and pass interference penalties, but not designed runs. If you throw out 3rd and 20 or longer, its about 36%. These are accurate numbers if you want to talk about Alex Smith as a player, rather than Alex Smith as the representative of the Niners offense. Still, not fantastic numbers.
Smith’s main problem has been taking sacks: he took something like 20 sacks on third down last season (I accidentally closed my data without saving after calculating the conversion percentage, so these numbers aren’t totally accurate). However, if you compare that to previous seasons, this is far preferable to his penchant for throwing interceptions or fumbling when pressured. He has calmed down in the pocket some, but in obvious passing situations he’s not been a consistent passer: in fact, he’s much better as a scrambler, scrambling for at least 7 first downs on 3-5 or longer.
One other thing I noticed is a very high number of incomplete passes on third down to Michael Crabtree. Take that as you will: The more I see of Crabtree, the less I think of him. However, to be fair, he had a number of clutch catches, usually medium range (think 10-20 yard catches on third-10 or so). He is a useful WR, but I’m glad we got Manningham and Moss.
One last comment: Only once did Smith exceed a 50% conversion rate last season. Obviously this has got to improve. Even though the conversion rate was only really bad (think <30%), 4 games out of the year, Smith is certainly not doing much to merit a lot of trust in obvious passing situations, like 3rd and long. We'll see what happens with another year in the offense and the addition of Moss and Manningham, as well as possibly another rookie. I'm optimistic, but still skeptical.
Excuse me, Smith’s conversion rate was sub-30% eleven times last year, not four times. Montana’s conversion rate was sub-30% once in ’81, and he won that game – it was the first one against the Rams.
Worry about your own research.
No, the 49ers’ third down conversion rate was sub-30% eleven times last year. I’m talking about Smith’s direct contribution.
He directly contributes to every play; he’s the quarterback. If he were better at passing for first downs on third downs, the coaches wouldn’t call as many run plays on third down as they do.
The ’81 Niners were very good on third down and they didn’t have a run game. Joe Montana made them good.
Good quarterbacks come up big on third down – it’s as simple as that.
Grant. He directly contributes to every play; he’s the quarterback.
With that sumation then Alex wins 14 games and loses four last year correct?
We’re talking about offense. Smith doesn’t play defense or special teams – the Niners’ strengths. But you already knew that.
Smith is not Joe Montana. Nor is he Rodgers. Nor is he Brady, or Manning, or even a great QB so far in his career. He’s not great on 3rd downs. However, the Niners convert significantly more passing than they do running. This may be due to opposing game-planning, may be due to our offensive line: however, Alex Smith does not directly contribute to a failed run play on third and short. Indirectly, certainly, he’s not nothing.
But to compare different seasons, from Smith to Hill, there’s just a lot of variables there you’re not taking into account, like how the run game was that year, how much Gore contributed, was he injured, how was the line that year, who was the coach, who was the OC, things like that. It’s a very strong statement with some shaky stats, that’s all I’m saying.
Still, I did agree with you in principle: Alex needs to improve on third downs. But I believe that starts with the run game, setting up good situations on third down and the ability to convert on 3rd/4th and short. I didn’t mention this in the previous post, but I hope Brandon Jacobs can help out with that.
Every team converts more passing than running. Third down is a passing down. Running rarely works.
Alex Smith was the worst at converting on third and short in ’11. Click the link at the bottom of the article.
Name me a quarterback who had consistently bad third down production over his entire career and improved near 30? Won a Super Bowl?
True, I would expect that passing usually does have a higher conversion percentage. However, looking over the play-by-play, the Niners did not have a large sample size of 3rd and shorts: much of that is due to the run game, and also Alex put himself in those long third down situations because of sacks.
A lot of my skepticism that Alex is the sole, or even main, reason of the Niners’ 3rd down production is their overall performance. The passing game was consistently more efficient than the running game, according to footballoutsiders, which ranked them 12th in passing and 24th in rushing. When you look at the whole picture, there is plenty of room for improvement in all aspects. I’m sticking to my story: I think it starts with a run game that can get consistent yardage, and not get stuffed so much at the line.
I understand your skepticism, but what do you make of the fact that Alex Smith has produced poorly on third down for his whole career, and Shaun Hill performed well on third down for the same team Smith played for.
That was really harsh there Grant what you said to undercenter.
Who by the way may be your best blogger.
Is Kilgore the best option at Right Guard right now?
Yes.
Would you expect them to sign the best of the rest at Guard or just grab another in the 3rd or 4th Round?
Maybe both, but definitely sign the best of the rest.
In your opinion who is the best of the rest? Would they consider drafting Martin/OT and move Davis into the RG slot?
However, his inability to complete passes that get first downs contributes to the team running more on third down. So in essence, he is contributing to the problem because the defense knows they can stack the box, stop the run, and not worry about Alex beating them with the pass. Because he can’t. It’s been like that EVERY year of his career. It’s going to be like that next season and Alex will be benched before game 8. You read it here first.
You want Alex Smith to be benched by game 8? That means we are not doing very well at all. Is that what you want? For the 49ers to suck so badly that AS is benched?
Exactly! Thats what this fool wants. If this guy was a niner fan, he wouldn’t even make this stupid remark.
I would rather have someone beat AS in training camp and preseason than have to make a QB change in the middle of the season. Making a QB change in the middle of the season sounds like a crappy season to me.
It should always be competitive I trust our Niner staff will judge on talent not on public opinion.
Another troll making a no name for himself. lol
@Grant, I admire how you write your story, you’re very clever writer, you know how to manipulate your posters. You know how to light up the fire between the Smithers and Haters.. Good Job !!!
The face of the franchise was in NY with his peers modeling the new uniforms. The season can’t start soon enough. Now on to the draft!
here ya go.
http://www.ninersnation.com/2012/4/3/2922843/nike-nfl-uniforms-49ers-qb-alex-smith-is-ready-to-hurt-you
hof
There are a lot of cool things Grant could discuss besides the draft. Especially since everybody sucked at predicting it every stinking year.
He can go back over each game now and look back at it knowing how things turned out and see what signs of things there were. He can do the 3rd down problem with every position.
He can do a 1st and 2nd down blog as well. Why so many 3rd and longs? Penalties? Looking at each position. One blog per down as well.
There is a bunch of stuff that we can go over last year if Grant just stops talking about AS all the freaking time. Stuff that is really cool and won’t start fights in less than 1 second. It’ll take at least 10 seconds.
: – )
That’s because Harbaugh would rather wear a pull-over!
Nice try Hofe nontheless (lol). Alex donning the new garb, yes. Alex the face of the team, no.
TBD. Expecting great things from AS this year! AES, remember, as your starting QB plays the team plays – all positive. I getting overtones of negativism from you AES!
None the less I can’t wait to get this new jersey. It will fit my abs to a T. And I can finally match my game day nikes with the jersey for once. Wheew. Those are going to look good on super bowl Sunday in high def. wheew. I can’t wait.
Excuse Hofer. He and his AS cult don’t go to Niner games much. If he did he would see that on most tickets, on most marketing materials, the faces of the franchise are Gore, VD and Patrick Willis. THAT’S IT.
They know they can’t BS the real fans. BTW those are also 90% of the new era jerseys worn in the stadium. AS jerseys are basically non existent. Face of the franchise. Not so much. Hof’s lack of objectivity once again shines through.
@bay:
Then why was Smith the 49ers’ representative in New York?
And please stop with this “real fans” nonsense. You are no more of a 49ers fan than Hofer is. He just disagrees with you regarding the value of one player.
Claude,
Smith was in NY because the Niners did the smart thing to engage him, make him feel “wanted” and move in a direction to mend fences.
They needed to after his public humiliation of not just courting Manning, but not budging on his contract demands.
And I can talk about the division between Alex fans / Real Niner fans all I want. It’s clear and evident. Just go back to our courting of Manning. The ALEX FANS either disappeared or spoke negatively about the attempt to bring Manning on. Because for that group, it was about Smith, not about the Niners….
@bay:
Sending him there also sends a message to the fanbase and the rest of the league, and that message conflicts with your “Alex Smith is a mere place holder” mantra.
not budging on his contract demands.
But the 49ers did budge, anywhere from $1 million to $8.5 million in guaranteed money.
As for commenters’ behavior during the courting of Manning, a lot of people embarrassed themselves, including those who gleefully focused on the possible departure of Smith rather than on the possible acquisition of Manning. I suggest that for that group, it also was about Smith and not the 49ers.
And while we are at it, can you identify the commenters you are referring to when you use a vague term like “ALEX FANS”? That way, others don’t have to guess whom you are talking about.
Claude,
my definition of an “Alex” fan is a fan that never points out any flaws in his game, is never critical of him, points excuses in every direction for his poor performances.
Let me expand on that. During the week that the niners were courting Manning, the “Alex” fans either voiced their disapproval or stopped posting completely like DS.
As for the Niners budging, they didn’t budge much. Alex is not looking at years 2 and 3. The message has been sent and that is why only year one is guaranteed. And they budged on that number by $1 million. Sort of a kiss and make up move…..
@bay:
I’m sorry, but by “identify,” I meant “provide the names of.” So far, you have listed DS. I assume you also include Hofer as an “ALEX FAN.” Anyone else?
they budged on that number by $1 million.
That was the number reported by Maiocco. According to both the AP (as cited by Grant) and profootballtalk.com, however, the 49ers guaranteed $5 million in 2012 and $7.5 million in 2013.
There also is a 2012 roster bonus of $3 million. Although that bonus is not technically guaranteed, it is highly unlikely the 49ers will cut Smith prior to the start of the season, especially after committing to pay him a guaranteed $12.5 million. For all practical purposes, that $3 million is guaranteed.
One could also argue that the $1 million roster bonus in 2013 is also effectively guaranteed for similar reasons, but that bonus is slightly less certain to be paid, so we can discount it if you wish.
In any case, moving from $8 million guaranteed to $15.5 million guaranteed is more than a “budge.”
Here is the link to the PFT report:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/22/clearing-the-air-on-the-alex-smith-deal/
Lmao! Hof you said the face of the franchise. Ha ha haaaaaa after next year I’ll believe it. Until then it is P Willis. Your just trying to stir up some bs. Your a funny guy Hof
“Your a funny guy Hof
I’m glad you got it MD. I try! Damn I’m going through withdrawls without football. I just watched the Ravens FX program on NFL net – the 9ers got screwed. Not only on the bad calls, but 2/3 of the program was John H and not Jim H. Leave it to the NFL films east coast bias! BTW, there is excellent pizza and the best restaurants on the west coast!!
MD, Bay couldn’t help himself. I was hoping to get that large mouth bass Jordo to bite. lol
Claude, I’m in agreement – we’ve gone from arguably one of the best all time QB’s replacing AS to a backup that has thrown 5 TDs and 10 Ints in the NFL – totally two different ends of the spectrum. The blamers don’t care who replaces AS as long as it’s somebody/anybody.
Hof. Trust me I’m sick of espn and the nfl network also and their east coast you know what kissing. The jerseys look nice. I think they doctored up smiths photo. His legs look like p Willis’ trunks. Lol good change of pace on that comment though.. Gave me a good chuckle.
Hey MD, question…you’ve mentioned your 9er tailgate party several times, did anyone from the blog ever come out?
Grant,
I know it’s early but what would your super bowl prediction be for 2013? I’d say 9ers vs pats. Last night saw that Denver had 12/1 odds already and 9ers at 10/1. Wow that putting a lot of faith in a QB coming off of 4 neck surgeries.
And Giants SB champs at 16/1
I think it’s obvious that the alex smith lovers just starting following the 49ers in 2005 and the people with functional brains that know alex is a total bum are the old school niner fans. There is no way you could watch Joe Montana and Steve Young play all those years and be cool going in to year 8 with alex the human blooper reel smith.
If you’ve watched the 49ers for a long time you also know that the coaching from 2003-2010 was also terrible. Dennis Erickson, Mike Nolan, and Singletary were nothing compared to Walsh, Seifert, and Mooch.
Yeah but they weren’t controlling alex smiths body and making him suck. Other qbs put up better numbers with the same players and coaches. No excuses you either cut it or you don’t he’s gotten about 5 years longer than any other bust it’s a miracle he is still in football.
Alex Smith is the reason kids get trophies now for coming in 8th place.
And why you got a leaf for finishing in 100th. Be thankful for him. That leaf was the only thing you won.
Pigskin isn’t it sickening to have kids live in a world where they get rewarded for losing. Sorry if you sucked back in my day you rode the pine, sucked it up and tried to get better. When called on they came out with a will to win. Welcome to the new liberal America pigskin. Where failure gets you free money and first place ribbons.
Pigskin : Akai 23jordan… NinerMD akai @Neal.. you guys can’t hide your true color shows, your hate gave you guys away. hahahaha !
Lets just see how it all plays out. Coach Harbaugh has a masterplan. Let it come to fruition. If we can get a few breaks and stay relatively healthy we might be celebrating our 6th World Championship.
Here, here, Razor!
AES, I think you meant, hear, hear! But we get it!!! lol
Nice discussion. Can’t wait for TC, it may prove to be more intense than a playoff game!
When all is said and done, the best players will be on the field, period! And I will do what I done for over 40 years, cheer for my team to win.
Grant can you venture to predict who the starters will be in September?
I see no real surprises.
The only changes I see are Aldon Smith over Parys and Culliver over T.Brown. All other positions remain intact.
@DS thanks.
It just goes to show that Alex gets all the blame and zero credit. We already know the sad thing is we all know Alex isnt a great QB no one that I can think of has ever stated that. They are trying to make comparisons that have nothing in common other then they played for the 49ers. To make comparisons from one player to another is simply putting foot in mouth and sneezing. Another words it just doesnt work. To make comparisons you have to have the same conditions and in sports thats almost impossible. To state my case is simple, is it the same players playing at the same level, playing on the same field, with the same weather conditions, under the same coaches, at the same time of day, age of the players and injuries to players and we can go on and on and on about that stuff. So if people want to make comparisons to other players I say let them it is an indication of how much they know about life. Thats high school education stuff by the way and dont even need a diploma to figure that out. Its ludicrus and simple minded to think that one can make comparisons between athletes unless the situtations are the same. It seems to me Grant likes JJ and wants to destroy Alex all he can, I also like JJ but JJ isnt the starter – yet. And once again DS thanks for the support but I dont really need it I know who I am and I have played more football and watched more football then just about anyone here. If you think a 24 kid is going to get to me, well he isnt unless he acts like his groupies and starts with the name calling and as of yet I havnt seen Grant lower himself to that standard. I have to admit after Bay called me a name I did respond to it and I did lower myself down to that standard, however I had enough of the imaturity and I responded myself and not overly proud of it.
I’m watching AS on FX on NFL net right now – the dude has grit. I love it when Suggs just misses sacking him and he says to Suggs, “close”! He definitely controls the huddle and he tells VD, “you gotta get out of bounds”!! Good stuff. GC we need a new article PLEASE.
hard hitting game eh Hof
@undercenter
“To make comparisons you have to have the same conditions and in sports thats almost impossible. ”
The same goes for statistical analysis. But nobody here knows a thing about it. Including Grant.
“DS thanks for the support but I dont really need it …”
You are likely correct. But I hold true to my principles no matter if somebody needs it or not. That is what we call consistency. Something that is sorely lacking on this blog.
“however I had enough of the imaturity and I responded myself and not overly proud of it.”
I know. I get it. Just wish Grant would put an end to that from the start. If he did, then nobody would call others names. Then no need to feel like you have to defend yourself if you know you won’t have to do so. But it is like the Wild West out here without a sheriff with the name calling. If it stopped, it would be very nice. Won’t argue with you there.
I first started blogging here starting from a blog he had whee he said enough about throwing insults at his dad. I liked that and chose to support it, and came on as a regular then. Wish he returned the favor in kind to prevent people from calling others names (or re-naming them to some cuss words) who are not his father. Again consistency. Something that is lacking on this blog.
DS, I think Pigskin is @3jordan, and Neal is ninerMD..lol
@manila
: – )
I can easily buy 23J logging as a some other loser. His word means nothing. You don’t know what he has done either. What you have seen so far is 23J on a serious dangerous level of Valium. And, you have the opinion you have based on this Valium version of 23J. Imagine what he was like before.
md though is a different story. At least for me. We had a lot of fights during the season. Then Prime time started to interact with him during the playoffs (NO and bye week and such) and md wrote a post saying “Why are we fighting one another? Other teams fans are invading our space. And that we need to forgive one another and stand united (might not be word for word accurate, but the point is there).
I didn’t read md’s posts (until this one), but because Prime and me are cool, I saw what Prime was saying and what prime quoted from md I really liked.
So, I asked him if we are now cool (I actually double posted on two separate blogs something I don’t like normally, but I felt it important enough this time to break my own personal rule) and he said yes.
So, I promised not to call him a hater, and he promised not to make the personal attacks that he so frequently wrote till that point to me. And as long as he keeps his word and does not pull a 23J, I will hold up my end of the bargain.
Oh.
And Neal was actually decent when he started. Then he got into a fight with one of the elders on this blog (here since the beginning, not age, I don’t think) and said he is only here to start fights with others.
So, keep that in mind. If he disagrees with you, you are probably right.
GC, how about a new article. If need be, ask for suggestions.
Hoferfan67 says:
April 3, 2012 at 5:33 pm
“AES, I think you meant, hear, hear! But we get it!!! lol”
Thanks Hofe, I could use a little correction now and again (lol).
Hofe:
“TBD. Expecting great things from AS this year! AES, remember, as your starting QB plays the team plays – all positive. I getting overtones of negativism from you AES!”
No, not negative. I was being totally honest with my comment. Alex is not the face of the team. OABTW, I believe you meant to say “I’m getting overtones …. not “I getting”… (lol)
AES, touche! BTW, AS will come through by elevating his game this year. Count on it!!
I will Hofe!
Hoferfan67 says:
“April 3, 2012 at 5:51 pm
TBD. Expecting great things from AS this year! AES, remember, as your starting QB plays the team plays – all positive. I getting overtones of negativism from you AES!”
Hofe, whoever the starters are come September, I’m all in!
If you need your boy (saying it respectfully) to be the face of the franchise, you could have at it. Really don’t care who emerges as the star or the face as long as we win our 6th Lombardi. I still have trouble with the steelers having one more trophy than us (lol).
A couple of bad ST plays away from the SB…I know we would have won over N.E.!!
Dude, you’re absolutely on point! We would have ‘crushed’ NE. Can’t really say that makes me feel any better though.
“Can’t really say that makes me feel any better though.”
Another beer??!
AES,
what we have is a major tail coat rider in Smith. Smith rode the coat tails of his defense. And people want to give him too much credit for it.
He is Rex Grossman 2.0 . some on this blog measure greatness by achieving the ultimate prize winning the SB. Well I think the Rex Grossman example proves that winning the SB doesn’t necessarily mean you are a good or great QB. Especially when a great defense got you there. Alex is Rex 2.0 IMO.
Whoops take it back. Rex is better. He got the the SB and Alex didn’t…
Hahaha, sorry, only alcohol I drink is in Nyquil!
AES, and a tequila chaser? lol
“I’m high as a kite and my teeth are green. Merry freakin Christmas!”-Dennis Leary
That player Bogan we just released well he is in trouble. Not sure if this link works I guess I will find out when I post.
http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/region_northeast_valley/scottsdale/san-francisco-49er-arrested-after-scottsdale-bar-assault#ixzz1r16d0xx1
lol looks like his left eye isnt feeling so well.
How un-Jerry Ricelike is that? Good for the 49ers not wasting a second on putting this trash out to the curb.
hey grant– go cover the packers then man. You probably never played football in your life.
C’mon man, Alex Smith is not THAT bad (and he’s not THAT good either).
Alex Smith is going to cost Justin Smith his rightful place in the HOF. As it is, he’s costing Justin Smith the recognition he deserves (since all 49er blog posts apparently have to be about the undeserving Smith).
Justin Smith would kick your butt on the field for you saying that about his teammate. Please. Please be an actual NFL offensive player who JS can just devour. I hope you are. Please!
Justin Smith is great because he does not say/think/believe the things you say. As a Justin Smith fan, I know why I like him. He is my favorite Niner. He would never think that. If you like him, you do him a great dis-service with your remark.
Do what JS did after that Rams game in St. Louis when he was ejected in 2010. Apologize to every person here for saying such horrible things. JS sat outside the locker room that day to apologize for his actions during that game to his coaches/teammates/media/fans/organization/everybody. And JS is not the most media savvy guy. He did it because that is who he is. We know what you are.
@ Grant
At this time, 10:07pm on 4/3/12, this page has 790 comments. Let’s just acknowledge you for this achievement.
Now, let’s apply the numbers, let’s run a little statistical analysis here.
Grant Cohn Comments: 100
DS94everXev Comments: 110
–
Grant, I think you have some “splaining” to do. Isn’t this blog your ACTUAL job? I mean, how can you possibly be getting outperformed by a full 10% by one of your commenters? Perhaps you ought to consider profit-sharing with this very prolific jester.
PBL,
The only thing that got DS to post less was our pursuit of Manning. That week the Alex bunch inexplicably disappeared. And not one voiced support in favor of courting Manning. Yet they call themselves Niner fans….. Right.
BS, I mean DS is like a piece of furniture in this chat room. It’s not going anywhere and it really has nothing to offer. 110 posts, nothing to say, hilarious!
Kind of like you Jordan…
welcher
Hate is swelling inside you now. Release it
Oh wait. It has been released. Thru your whole life. Hate hate hate.
Ditto Jack AZZ!
@jack
Still don’t see the difference between me and welcher boy?
DS, The only difference between you and Jordan is the name calling. You both are too stubborn to have a real conversation with, he hates AS, you love him, and neither of you can see that there are both positives and negatives with his play, it is only one way.
As for the Jack Azz comment, that is amateur hour stuff….I kinda find it funny to be honest.
@Jack
“You both are too stubborn to have a real conversation with”
Then you’ve wasted a lot of your blog time then haven’t you? That says more about you than me.
And if you think I do love him, why do you have a problem with that? Love, there is not enough of it in the world. Hate, way too much of it.
Why can’t you allow somebody to love somebody (your words, not mine) instead of arguing with them that they are wrong and you are right in that they should not love them? How does that make you a better person? Or even remotely right anyway? What if AS wins 4 Super Bowls? Will it be ok with you then to love him?
You are one confused person Jack. Most people like the idea of promoting love and discouraging hate. I am one of those people. Even if they can’t understand why the love exists. Guess you are not.
DS, hopefully when they made you they broke the mold…
Hey Jack
There are a lot worse people than me. If you disagreed with me about love and hate, you are one of them.
I hope that is not the case.
In Alex We Trust.
To not screw things up for the defense.
@BigP
That simply isn’t true. Smith was #32 in the NFL on 3rd and short passing conversions. The running game was ranked #7 in the NFL on 3rd down conversion %, which is very good.
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct
Upon further review, you misrepresented the link and it has nothing to do with 3rd downs or “3rd down conversion %”.
It means 35.99% of all First Downs of SF were via “Rushing”.
That’s how I read it. SF is not #7 in “”3rd down conversion %”.
You fooled some sheep…errrr..people. Oh well. LOL
@AlbertS
Don’t expect BigP to admit any wrong doing on his behalf ever.
He completely misquoted me. Cutting a sentence I wrote in half and putting a period where none existed in an attempt to quote me back to me. By doing so, he completely changed what I said. When I pointed this out to him, he simply ignored his error and insisted that he quoted me correctly.
So something like:
“I am not a Niner fan, not!” he turned into “I am no a Niner fan.”
See. The entire meaning of the original, my sentence is lost.
He does not know how to quote others, or stats or links. Don’t trust whatever comes from him.
@AlbertS:
I am not sure what that statistic means. The heading reads “NFL Team Rushing First Down Percentage,” but I could find no explanation of the statistic anywhere on the website. I am not sure how BigP came to believe that it has anything to do with 3rd down conversion percentage because nothing on the page or the rest of the site suggests that interpretation.
Your interpretation is reasonable, but I am not sure the numbers add up. The “NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage” chart (http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct) shows the 49ers at 52.87%. Adding the two numbers together (35.99 + 52.87) gives us 88.86% as the percentage of first downs achieved by passing or running. That would suggest that 11.14% of the 49ers’ first downs came from penalties, which seems like a high percentage to me.
It would be nice if site explained its statistics. Otherwise, they are not very useful.
11% is not that unreasonable at all claude.
That is 1 out of 10. And AS did get the DL to jump a few times to get 1st downs. And I remember several defensive holding call for automatic 1st downs happening in a single game.
So, that sounds about right to me.
1/10 from penalty. Basically that is about 1.5-2 first downs or so a game. Not that unreasonable.
@DS: I did some research, and it supports what you are saying. 11% is not an unreasonably percentage.
@AlbertS: It looks like you correctly interpreted the data. Given your commenting history, I should have trusted your judgment.
Looking at just your link Claude, I would read it as the % the Niners passed on 1st down. So they passed on 1st down 52.87% of the time. Which sounds about right to me as well.
And the passing for first downs per game is 9.2.
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-downs-per-game
There is nothing at all in either link that says anything to me about 3rd downs. I don’t see 3rd downs at all. I did a word search for “Third” on the main page and got nothing that resembled Third down conversions via pass or run. Only overall team % conversion rates and the actual number of third downs converted.
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/
Nothing at all to insinuate passing vs. running success on 3rd downs. Like I said before, no shock at who made the claims to begin with.
@claude DS9 JH
I just wanted a third opinion on it, since GC endorsed
BigP’s claim. It seems wrong to me right from the start.
Then a bunch of others jumped to support it too.
So more sheep might follow if no one says a thing.
Thanks
@Albert
See my post just below for a link about 3rd down issues if you have not seen it before.
April 4, 2012 at 6:37 am
Really cool read. No putting anybody down. No comparisons to years back with different team and coach and well, everything.