1. New York Giants
Key losses: WR Mario Manningham, RB Brandon Jacobs, TE Jake Ballard (microfracture knee surgery).
Key additions: RB David Wilson, WR Rueben Randle, WLB Keith Rivers, TE Martellus Bennett.
Forecast: The champs got better. Wilson is an upgrade over Jacobs, and Randle is an upgrade over Manningham.
2. New England Patriots
Key losses: DE Andre Carter, DE Shaun Ellis, DE Mark Anderson, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB Kevin Faulk.
Key additions: WR Brandon Lloyd, WR Jabar Gaffney, DE Chandler Jones, LB Dont’a Hightower, DE Jonathan Fanene, S Steve Gregory, CB Alfonzo Dennard.
Forecast: The Patriots upgraded their defense and their wide receivers, and now they’re the best team in the AFC by far.
3. Green Bay Packers
Key losses: LT Chad Clifton, S Nick Collins, RB Ryan Grant, QB Matt Flynn.
Key additions: OLB Nick Perry, C Jeff Saturday.
Forecast: Still the best passing offense in the NFL, now the defense has two good pass rushers as Nick Perry teams up with Clay Matthews at outside linebacker.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Key losses: WR Joshua Morgan.
Key additions: WR Randy Moss, WR Mario Manningham, WR A.J. Jenkins, RB LaMichael James, QB Josh Johnson.
Forecast: The best defense in the league and arguably the best roster top-to-bottom too. The offense wasn’t good enough on third down or in the red zone last season to reach the Super Bowl. So, the front office added four playmakers whom they hope will improve the Niners third-down and red-zone offense from awful to good enough. But the young and unproven right side of the offensive line (RG Daniel Kilgore and RT Anthony Davis) cannot be the weak link this season – they must mature quickly and hold their own, or else Vernon Davis and Moss and Mannigham will never get the ball. If the offensive line holds up, the level of success of the entire offense will fall squarely on Alex Smith’s shoulders. Can he consistently move the chains, especially in the playoffs? If he can, the Niners can win the Super Bowl this season. If he can’t, his backup deserves a shot.
5. Houston Texans
Key losses: DE Mario Williams, ILB DeMeco Ryans, CB Jason Allen.
Key additions: ILB Bradie James, DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus.
Forecast: The Texans defense played very well without Mario Williams last year, and this year they’ve added pass rusher Whitney Mercilus, so it should be top-notch once again. The offense is consistently very good with Matt Schaub at QB, Andre Johnson at WR and Arian Foster at RB, and that trio is healthy this season.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Key losses: CB William Gay, RB Rashard Mendenhall (ACL tear), NT Casey Hampton (ACL).
Key additions: RG David DeCastro, LT Mike Adams, NT Alameda Ta’amu
Forecast: Whoever starts the season at running back will have a great offensive line in front of him. Roethlisberger will continue to throw for tons of passing yards, because wide receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are very good.
7. Denver Broncos
Key losses: DT Brodrick Bunkley, WR Eddie Royal, QB Tim Tebow.
Key additions: QB Peyton Manning, TE Jacob Tamme, WR Andre Caldwell, CB Tracy Porter.
Forecast: This team should be able to pass the ball and rush the passer – a winning combination for Peyton Manning in the past.
8. Chicago Bears
Key losses: Johnny Knox (cracked joint in spinal column)
Key additions: WR Brandon Marshall, DE Shea McLellin, WR Alshon Jeffery, RB Michael Bush.
Forecast: This team got exactly what they wanted this offseason, another pass rusher and a couple of huge wide receivers. With QB Jay Cutler and RB Matt Forte back healthy, the Bears should contend for the Super Bowl.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Key losses: CB Leon Hall (torn Achilles), WR Jerome Simpson, WR Andre Caldwell, DE Frostee Rucker, DE Jonathan Fanene, OG Nate Livings.
Key additions: LG Travelle Wharton, RG Kevin Zeitler, WR Marvin Jones, WR Mohamed Sanu, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Jason Allen, CB Terrence Newman.
Forecast: Second-year QB Andy Dalton will have a monster season throwing to one elite WR – A.J. Green – and two good rookies – Sanu and Jones.
10. Philadelphia Eagles
Key losses: LT Jason Peters (Achilles tear).
Key additions: MLB DeMeco Ryans, LT Demetress Bell, DT Fletcher Cox, SLB Mychal Kendricks, DE Vinny Curry, CB Brandon Boykin, WR Marvin McNutt.
Forecast: The Eagles made very good offseason moves, but they’ll never seriously contend for a Super Bowl as long as Vick’s their QB. He’s small, he runs a lot, takes huge hits and misses too many games.
11. Dallas Cowboys
Key losses: ILB Bradie James, CB Terrence Newman, WR Laurent Robinson.
Key additions: CB Brandon Carr, CB Morris Claiborne, ILB Dan Connor.
Forecast: Cornerback was their biggest need and they got two very good ones, but they still have a shaky running game. With the loss of Robinson they now have no depth at wide receiver. If Dallas stays completely healthy they could contend for the Lombardi Trophy, but don’t bet on it.
12. Detroit Lions
Key losses: CB Eric Wright.
Key additions: OT Riley Reiff, WR Ryan Broyles, CB Dwight Bentley.
Forecast: This team basically stood pat. They needed a CB so they drafted Bentley in the third round. Their best player – Calvin Johnson – carries the Madden Curse this season, which doesn’t bode well for Detroit.
13. Baltimore Ravens
Key losses: OLB Terell Suggs (Achilles tear), OLB Jarret Johnson, DT Cory Redding, OG Ben Grubbs
Key additions: OLB Courtney Upshaw.
Forecast: With Suggs, this is a top-five team. Without him, Baltimore is an aging defense with a so-so pass rush.
14. Atlanta Falcons
Key losses: MLB Curtis Lofton.
Key additions: CB Asante Samuel.
Forecast: The defense is good but not great. Same with the offense. QB Matt Ryan needs a strong running game to be effective, and 30-year-old RB Michael Turner has slowed down the last two seasons.
15. Seattle Seahawks
Key losses: MLB David Hawthorne.
Key additions: QB Matt Flynn, DE Bruce Irvin.
Forecast: If their surprise first round pick, Irvin, can become a third-down sack master, Seattle’s defense could be very good, but the offense lacks talented pass catchers and an experienced QB. Also, now that Marshawn Lynch has a long-term contract, will he still play hard?
16. San Diego Chargers
Key losses: WR Vincent Jackson, RB Mike Tolbert.
Key additions: OLB Jarret Johnson, OLB Melvin Ingram, WR Robert Meachem, WR Eddie Royal, FB LeRon McClain.
Forecast: Philip Rivers lost his best WR – Jackson – but he gained two good ones, and now he’s got four (Vincent Brown, Malcolm Floyd, Meachem and Royal) to go along with TE Antonio Gates. The defense needed pass rushers, so they added two outside linebackers – Johnson and Ingram. They should be a very tough team this season.
17. New Orleans Saints
Key losses: HC Sean Payton, DC Gregg Williams, MLB Jonathan Vilma (1-year ban), LG Carl Nicks, CB Tracy Porter, WR Robert Meachem, LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar.
Key additions: LG Ben Grubbs, MLB Curtis Lofton, WLB David Hawthorne, NT Broderick Bunkley.
Forecast: The team is in disarray. The defense will stink and the offense won’t have its play caller – the disgraced Sean Payton.
18. Kansas City Chiefs
Key losses: CB Brandon Carr.
Key additions: RB Peyton Hillis, CB Stanford Routt, RT Eric Winston.
Forecast: The biggest additions aren’t really additions; they’re Chiefs who are returning from various injuries – QB Matt Cassel, RB Jamaal Charles and S Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki. They downgraded big-time at cornerback, replacing Carr with Routt. Cassel is NBD – no big deal – but without him, the Chiefs are nowhere.
19. Carolina Panthers
Key losses: MLB Dan Connor, OG Geoff Schwartz.
Key additions: MLB Luke Kuechly, OG Amini Silatolu, WR/PR Joe Adams, TE Greg Olsen.
Forecast: The offense will be excellent. Cam Newton’s the best young offensive player in the NFL. Joe Adams will win the No. 2 WR job in training camp and have a good season opposite Steve Smith. First round pick Luke Kuechly will help improve the defense, but it’s got a long way to go before it’s good enough.
20. Oakland Raiders
Key losses: DE Kamerion Wimbley, CB Stanford Routt, RB Michael Bush.
Key additions: OG Mike Brisiel, OG Tony Bergstrom, RB Mike Goodson, CB Ronald Bartell, WR Juron Criner.
Forecast: Wimbley’s a one-trick pony – a speed rusher who doesn’t defend the run. The Raiders will be fine without him. And they’ll actually improve without Routt. Call it addition by subtraction. All he did for Oakland was commit a ton of pass interference penalties. Bartell should be a big upgrade. If Darren McFadden stays healthy, the Raiders offense will be top-10. If the defense can at least stop the run, this team could be competitive.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key losses: None.
Key additions: WR Vincent Jackson, LG Carl Nicks, S Mark Barron, RB Doug Martin, CB Eric Wright.
Forecast: Young QB Josh Freeman had a down year. He should bounce back, especially because he’s got a new wide receiver – Jackson – and a new tail back – Martin. The defense has talent. There’s a new head coach – Greg Schiano. This team should surprise the league this season.
22. Tennessee Titans
Key losses: Cortland Finnegan.
Key additions: LG Steve Hutchinson, DE Kamerion Wimbley, WR Kendall Wright.
Forecast: This offense is much better with WR Kenny Britt, who tore his ACL last season and missed 13 games after missing four the season before. Hutchinson’s old, and so is the quarterback – Matt Hasselbeck. First-round pick Kendall Wright will bust. Team MVP Chris Johnson had a down year last season. If he doesn’t rebound, the Titans will be lucky to tread water this season.
23. New York Jets
Key losses: LaDainian Tomlinson.
Key additions: DE Quiton Coples, WR Stephen Hill, S LaRon Landry, Tim Tebow.
Forecast: This team still stinks. WR Santonio Holmes will quit on them again this year, maybe even before the season begins. If they didn’t have the best CB in the NFL – Derrelle Revis – the Jets would just be plain awful.
24. Arizona Cardinals
Key losses: CB Richard Marshall.
Key additions: WR Michael Floyd, CB William Gay.
Forecast: This team’s going nowhere. The offensive line is still bad, and so is the quarterback – Kevin Kolb. If they didn’t have one of top-10 players in the league – Larry Fitzgerald – they wouldn’t have very much going for them. At least they have the promising young cornerback and punt returner – Patrick Peterson.
25. Buffalo Bills
Key losses: LT Demetress Bell.
Key additions: DE Mario Williams, CB Stephon Gilmore, DE Mark Anderson, OT Cordy Glenn.
Forecast: They added the best pass rusher in the NFL to their defense – Williams – plus they added another good one – Anderson, and spent a top-10 draft pick on a corner – Gilmore. The defense should be good, but the offense won’t be, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is the reason why. He stinks.
26. Indianapolis Colts
Key losses: QB Peyton Manning, TE Jacob Tamme, WR Pierre Garçon, C Jeff Saturday.
Key additions: QB Andrew Luck, TE Coby Fleener, TE Dwayne Allen.
Forecast: This team is going to be slightly better than many people think. Andrew Luck will be very good right away, like Cam Newton last season, only better. Fleener will catch more than 10 TDs, and Reggie Wayne will gain more than 1,200 yards receiving. The defense still can rush the quarterback, but can they stop the run? Probably not.
27. Minnesota Vikings
Key losses: None.
Key additions: LT Matt Kalil, WR Jerome Simpson, WR Greg Childs, WR Jarius Wright.
Forecast: Team MVP Adrian Peterson, who tore his ACL, MCL and meniscus last season, believes he’ll be ready to start this season. That’s good news for the Vikings, especially for 2nd-year noodle-armed QB Christian Ponder, who needs all the help he can get. And they’re giving it to him – not only will Peterson return, but they drafted a stud left tackle – Kalil –signed a good wide receiver – Simpson – and drafted two more good ones from the University of Arkansas – Childs and Wright. The defense isn’t nearly good enough for this team to matter, though.
28. Washington Redskins
Key losses: LaRon Landry, Jabar Gaffney.
Key additions: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garçon, Joshua Morgan.
Forecast: QB Griffin will disappoint his rookie season. His weapons – Garçon, Morgan and RB Roy Helu – really are NBD, and his coach – Mike Shannahan – is way over the hill.
29. St. Louis Rams
Key losses: WR Brandon Lloyd.
Key additions: CB Cortland Finnegan, DT Michael Brockers, WR Brian Quick, CB Janoris Jenkins, RB Isaiah Pead, WR Chris Givens.
Forecast: The defense should be much better than last season, when it featured one of the slowest, worst secondaries in football. Now with Finnegan and Jenkins, they have two good cornerbacks. Unfortunately for St. Louis, the offense will continue to stink. The WRs are NBD, and the QB, Sam Bradford, is a dink-and-dunker who needs a clean pocket to operate. In other words, he’s a bust and he’ll hold this team back for years.
30. Cleveland Browns
Key losses: RB Peyton Hillis.
Key additions: RB Trent Richardson, QB Brandon Weeden, DE Frostee Rucker.
Forecast: Trent Richardson was the right draft pick; Brandon Weeden was not. Like Bradford, Weeden was a prolific Big XII QB who needs a clean pocket. QBs don’t get clean pockets in the NFL, so the Browns are screwed.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
Key losses: None.
Key additions: DE Andre Branch, WR Justin Blackmon, WR Laurent Robinson, WR Lee Evans.
Forecast: Another team who foolishly invested in a Big XII QB. Blaine Gabbert is so bad, he will single-handedly ensure the Jaguars are one of the NFL’s worst teams this season.
32. Miami Dolphins
Key losses: None.
Key additions: QB Ryan Tannehill, RT Jonathan Martin, CB Richard Marshall.
Forecast: Miami is giving its Big XII QB, Tannehill, a year to develop, as if that will help. It won’t. He’ll still be horrendous in the NFL, but the Dolphins will be horrendous with our without him, so it doesn’t really matter.
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We’ll see a pass-first WCO this season. Short passes to prepare the deep ones and to open holes for the running game. Explosive offense and SB caliber defense. Go Niners!
That really would be a deviation from Harbaugh’s offensive philosophy! As much as I’d love to see it happen, I doubt it will. 49ers will still be run-first, but they should also be able to create a lot more in the passing game compared to last year.
it’ll be run first. short passes and occasional (downfield) “shots” when down and distance, match ups and strategy dictate.
Grant you are correct on the 49ers. it is going to come down to the O line and the O line alone. snyder was a weak run blocker last yr he kept getting pushed back into the RB’s but kilgore is an unknown. smith holds on to the ball to long but i would assign about 30% of the blame on smith and 70% to the O line. also the line did not run block consistently and need to improve in that area also.This yrs success will weigh heavily on the Oline and their coaches
Where is the blame for the sorry receivers we had?
Grant,
I was with you thru most of this man, but:
“Andrew Luck will be very good right away, like Cam Newton last season, only better.”
Yikes. Talk about going out on a limb.
Newton is an electric once-in-a-generation talent who set records on a horrible team. What are the odds that happens two years in a row?
Over 10 TDs for a one-trick-pony rookie TE who opposing defenses can afford to double-team on every infrequent occasion this offense even sniffs the RZ?
The colts will pick top-5 again next April. Their roster is as thin as wet kleenex. See: Peyton Manning, 1998.
I like them in 2015 or so.
Newton had one guy to throw to last season – Steve Smith.
Luck has six – Fleener, Wayne, Dwayne Allen Austin Collie, Donnie Avery and rookie third-round pick T.Y Hilton, who ran a 4.34 at his Pro Day and caught 229 passes for 3,531 yards and 24 TDs at Florida International.
I think T.Y Hilton will surprise people this year. I expect Luck to have a solid year.
That’s alot of “ifs” there. If you counting Donnie Avery as a weapon than you’ve already lost. Like Jimbaugh said, Newton is “plutonium-grade” talent. A good as Luck is, he has no O-Line and no running game…something Newton could lean on. And forgive me if Im not counting on a bunch of rookies and a over-the-hill Reggie Wayne to be much. He’ll have a solid season by rookie standards but he wont touch Newton’s production.
Luck’s going to pass 45 times a game and complete 60 percent of those passes from the gate.
Well, the Colts did sign Bruce Arians as offense coordinator so 45 passes a game for Luck may not be much of an exaggeration. He tends to forget running backs exist as badly as Marc “He’s gone” Trestman did.
I like RG3′s potential but I wonder if he’ll reach it in that circus in D.C.
who is going to block for him?
Steve Smith is an elite receiver. Wayne is old, Austin Collie and Donnie Avery are nothing but average. Your man love for Coby Fleener has blinded you. There is a reason his own college coach passed on him at the end of the first round for another pass catcher, he will not be an impact player in the NFL. If you don’t believe that you can wait and see.
RG3 will have better season than Luck
RGIII Will have a way better team, more weapons and a better o-line…..half those weapons you guys say luck has are rookies the others for the most part are old……..You can not evaluate a rookie until they have stepped on to a NFL field in a real game. remember luck has to face one of the best defense in the league twice a year, the Texans. I see RGIII being able to do what Newton did as a rookie, and I see luck having a rookie year like Blane Gabbert last year.
from my perspective outside of the niners, i will be interested in how the newton vs luck vs RGIII compares to the expected improved AS….AS is still relatively young and it looks like the niner offense is entering a period of stability coaching wise…..i do not expect AS to have the massive passing numbers of a newton but rather command of the offense (like what i am assuming a luck or peyton has) supported by pre-snap reads followed by +1 second snap reads as imperative to AS being considered a top flight QB…..because it will be all about the YAC … IMO this is what has been addressed this offseason…..
on a side note this OL evolution is critical as well….
This is a very disappointing ranking. The NY Jets have Timmy Tebow and you rank them an uninspiring #23? And the Indy Colts, with BOTH Luck and Fleener, ranked at #26 should be about twenty spots higher. And please hide our Niners down around #28 or #29. A low profile can lead to a surprise win or two. Oh, and Denver’s John Elway expected his Bronco’s to be ranked #1. Go Niners! Happy B day Alex Smith. (I read somewhere it’s his Birthday.) One last thing unrelated to all this. Tell your dad he ought to link your blog every chance he gets. After all, that’s what dads are for.
You very nearly got me. Funny stuff.
I stopped reading as soon as you said Randle is an upgrade over Manningham
Manningham is 5-10 (actually he’s 6-0) and doesn’t go over the middle. Randle is 6-3 and does everything.
Grant
And how many WR’s stank in college and got an NFL contract? Point being they were all good in college. But they get to the NFL, and the real difference becomes apparent. Can’t judge college vs. NFL quite like that.
Of course I can. Rueben Randle was my second-ranked pass catcher in the draft. I think he’s going to be very good, similar to Hakeem Nicks, who’s already a Giant. NYG has the best top-3 WRs of any NFL team.
If I’m wrong I’ll own up to it, but I’m not. Randle’s the truth.
I thought Manningham was 6’0″? But yeah, he doesn’t go over the middle much. Nicks and Cruz do that. Manningham was mostly used as a downfield threat.
You’re right – he’s 6-0. My mistake. He’s 185 lbs. and I associate that weight with 5-10 receivers.
Randle was a downfield threat at LSU. He did everything. The Giants offense will be better this season because their three receivers can beat you short, intermediate and deep outside the numbers or over the middle, plus their run game has improved.
DS
The Giants have a solid track record of WR evaluation in recent years. I’ll trust their judgement over yours.
Nick – well said. Giants have churned out some good WRs in recent years. If they like Randle, chances are he’ll be ok.
I think Randle could eventually be a decent receiver, but unlikely he is better than Manningham this year.
Also, you probably have Detroit too low, Cincy a little high. I also think Buffalo could be a little higher if they can stay healthy.
As far as Detroit goes – the Madden Curse is real.
I wonder how many Panther fans voted for Calvin Johnson in order to keep Cam Newton off the cover.
…in college not the NFL yet
Same here, an unproven rookie over a superbowl winning WR, get what your hinting at but give me a break.
By that logic Brandon Jacobs is better than David Wilson.
Would you bet that Manningham will have a better season than Randle? Didn’t think so.
Well seeing as Wilson hasnt played played a snap of NFL football, your purely speculating. Your talking about the same organization that spent a 3rd round pick on Sinorce Moss…..and where is he right now? Randle could be great….and he could suck. Nothing is set in stone because you thought he was great at LSU.
MM has proven himself in the NFL. He should thrive in this offense because he wont be required to think nearly as much as he was in Gilbride’s run and shoot, where all their routes were option-based. MM isnt the sharpest knife in the drawer. Randle? Meh, he was a ok prospect. He was drafted accordingly. He could put up decent numbers in that scheme but I see nothing more than a glorified possession WR.
Sinorice Moss? That was six years ago.
The Giants are the ones who spotted and developed Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz.
How is Randle a glorified possession receiver when he averaged 17 yards a catch in the SEC last year?
And of course I’m speculating. So are you. Speculating is fun.
This isnt college. You will never hear me quote a player’s stats in college as to why he’ll be good at the next level. I watch the player, not his line at the end of the game. He wont get off the line nearly as clean as he did in college. He doesn’t have a second gear. He will struggle in NFL seperaring from press coverage. He’s a bigger Crabtree really. Just my 2 cents….we’ll see if it adds up here shortly.
He’ll play off the line for the Giants, just like Manningham did. Nicks plays on the line for them.
SEC WR stats are highly relevant. Big XII WR stats – not relevant at all.
Randle is taller, quicker and faster than Crabtree. Randle was the No. 2 prospect coming out of high school in ’09. At LSU he played with bad QBs against NFL CBs and still averaged 16.8 yards a catch for his entire career.
Bee,
“He wont get off the line nearly as clean as he did in college. He doesn’t have a second gear. He will struggle in NFL seperaring from press coverage. He’s a bigger Crabtree really. Just my 2 cents….we’ll see”
Sounds like you are describing the guy who was taken 30+ spots ahead of Randle, AJ Jenkins.
Yup, except Jenkins is smaller.
Who says he’s quicker and faster than MC? You have numbers to back that up because at the end of the day, that’s purely speculation on your part. Say what you will about Crabtree, he has actually production on a NFL field. Randle is hit or miss. My prediction is he doesn’t do much better than what Crabtree did in 10 games as a rookie. And no matter if he plays off or on the line, he will see press coverage…..and he will struggle with it because he doesn’t posess nearly the speed you give him credit for.
I’ve watched them play. It’s obvious. Randle clocked a 4.43 at his Pro Day. Crabtree could never run that. He plays at 4.55 speed.
Randle beat SEC CBs with safety help down the field outside the numbers. Crabtree mostly beat BIG XII CBs underneath from the slot in a spread offense. Huge difference.
So your eyes are stop watches? Good to know. And I take Pro Day 40 times with a grain of salt. So what did he run at the Combine? That same 4.55 you just mocked Crabtree for. He beat CBs reguarly deep with safety help? So what was his longest TD catch last year? What team did it come against? What did he do against Boykin? Kilpatrick? CBs who actuay have NFL talent? C’mon your reaching Grant…..worst than Dhalsim.
And Kendall Wright ran a 4.61, and Jerry Rice ran a 4.7.
If Randle can run a 4.43, he can run a 4.43. That’s his official Pro Day time. Crabtree could never clock that. Jenkins official Pro Day time is 4.37, not 4.31.
Alabama doubled Randle with first round DBs – Kirkpatrick and Barron – and Randle’s QB was atrocious.
And what was his excuse versus Georgia? Oregon? There’s a reason everyone is faster at their Pro Day. At a neutral site like the Combine, he ran just like I thought he would….decent. Thats what I expected because that’s what I saw when I watched him….4.5. He and Sanu were in the same boat with me….guys who didnt show all this speed and quickness everyone else claim they had. Like I said, we’ll see here soon enough.
Larry Fitzgerald ran decent at the combine too. You don’t have to run a 4.3 to be a deep threat. For example, Jenkins runs a 4.3 and he is not a deep threat.
You can’t compare Sanu and Randle. Sanu never caught long passes in college. He was a possession receiver. He averaged 10.8 yards per catch over 210 catches at Rutgers. Randle was always a big play receiver, like Manningham and Nicks were.
Manningham makes the big play and extends the field. I like Randall but with Cruz and Nicks he won’t see that many looks unless Eli throws the ball 60 times a game.
Some good stuff from Cosell on Jenkins and other players here.
http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/05/07/cosell-talks-nfc-west-draft-pick-post-mortum/?module=HP11_content_stream
As I said, you can’t get caught up in names. It’s about production on the field and how a team views a player fitting into their system.
Is he trying to argue that the Niners receivers rarely get pressed?
Same here. Manningham was clutch down the stretch. Made the catch to clinch the Super Bowl victory. There is no way you can say a rookie is an upgrade over a proven vet.
Manningham was a #3 receiver. It’s not a stretch to project a rookie doing better than that. He’s really just a Josh Morgan replacement and in fact may not be as good. His career is only slightly better than Morgan’s but he played on a far superior offense.
Manninghams’ hands are golden.
“Project” is the key word. Has not done anything yet which is my point.
I remember watching an LSU game against Alabama (I think) and saw Randle drop like 3 or 4 passes. I thought to myself, ‘who is this guy? He’s garbage.’
Obviously I won’t judge him off one game, but his hands looked pretty bad.
..Stopped reading after #4….your credibilty on da niners is questionable. I am definately not gonna look at yu 4 info on other nfl teams
Rebuen is an upgrade over mann???….cmon dude who do you think kept this blog alive before u started …u think shallow brains like jordan welcher who gubble up this amateur stuff did? Get real dude. …write something wit sense I beg. Somethin that says u r a reporter….u r one right?
…Tried to read your comment but I don’t speak Esperanto…
C’mon, Grant, it’s not Esperanto, it’s Extrastoner. :)
…Same thing wz said about a West Germanic language spoken originally in England…….dnt wrry soon u will join da crowd…
…Tried to read your comment but I don’t speak Esperanto…
Pissed???? Ok guy. You’ve been saying smith will become a great player for 8 years now. And yet he’s still a big ?. Yep you keep proving us wrong onelame. Thought i would step in this year and give you a hand and call it right. I’m saying smith will crack top 7 this year. Which will make me right 8 years straight. Keep tearing up the predictions onelame. Buahahahaaaa.
OneStoner is talking about credibilty?
Rebuen is an upgrade over mann???….cmon dude who do you think kept this blog alive before u started ………-Oneniner
How would you know? You and your dumb comments like this were banned. NEEEXT!
Mmm… Reuben!
I could totally go for a really good Reuben right now: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reuben_sandwich
Place downtown here that makes a really good one.
Initial reactions… The Ravens are better than you think, and will be a playoff team again. The Chargers are worse than you think, and will suck even more than last year.
*If* the 49ers stay healthy, the O-line gels, the new WRs are productive, and Alex Smith has a good season, we WILL win the Super Bowl. Chances of all four things aligning are about 1 in 5 – which is not bad at all, really. Beats the hell out of the years when we were just praying for a .500 season. I’d give about the same odds of the Giants repeating, close to it (6-1, 7-1?) for GB or NE or Balt, and 1 in 12 or so of someone else emerging.
Thanks for the comment. Why do you think the Ravens will make the playoffs without Suggs?
They still have Ed Reed. They still have a stadium that is one of the toughest venues in the NFL for a road team. Still have Ray Rice, and an experienced Torry Smith to go with Boldin. Upshaw should give them a little of the rush they lost with Suggs. And it’s the AFC: most of the teams on their schedule will be even more flawed. If Flacco pulls an Alex Smith and upgrades his game just enough this season, the *other* Harbaugh could take home the Lombardi.
I think the Bengals passed them. Reed’s 33 and Lewis turns 37 next week. The offense is average. They’re going to finish third in the AFC North and miss the playoffs – that’s my bold prediction.
Grant,
Pernell McPhee will pick up some of the slack left from the Suggs injury. He quietly had 6 sacks last year as a rookie. He will likely rotate with Upshaw.
Do you think the Ravens will finish better than third in their division? Do you think they’ll make the playoffs? Do you think I ranked them too low?
Grant,
I think the Ravens are in the top 10, right below Cincinnati. They play in arguably the best division in the league, and I can very easily see them making the playoffs again with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
I can see that too, but I think they got worse while Dallas and Philly got better.
Carr and Claiborne make Dallas’ D top-notch.
Yeah, but the Cowboys and Eagles still have Romo and Vick, who will do enough to make sure they are right around .500.
And Vick and Romo will choke just enough to miss the playoffs or do a one and done.
The Steelers won’t be as good this year. Hampton out is huge. He’s their JS. They’re rebuilding the OL, Mendenhall is out, Rothlisberger is coming off a bad ankle, and who knows if it will become chronic. I’d say they go about 8-8. And the Bungles are still the Bungles. Dalton will get hurt, or their defense will collapse. Something will go wrong. The Ravens will win the division, because no one beats them in Baltimore. How far they go then depends on Flacco.
The Steelers imrpoved on offense while their defense got a year older, the Bengals got better across the board, the Ravens regressed and the Browns, as usual, made everyone laugh.
The Bengals have quietly had 3 great drafts in a row and have fully rebuilt the team that won the AFC North in 2009. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the AFCN go Bengals>Steelers>Ravens.
If Roethlisberger or Wallace or Brown gets hurt, I agree.
Giants had a fantasy year and all the breaks went their way. The Cowboys handed them the division title as did Williams in the NFC final. They beat a Patriot team that won one game all season against winning teams. I think the Patriots are on the downside, no running attack and a QB that is not going to get any better. All the bad karma is starting to mount up on Belichick. He couldn’t close the deal on the biggest game of his life, the SB for the undefeated season. He’s lost his last two big games. Which way is the graph pointing?
The steelers have so many holes its not funny they will finish below the browns……..they lost like 5-8 key players…..you cant replace all that in one season. There o-line looks like the worse in the league on paper.
I think the Rams will be better than #29 this season – if the OL can hold up give Bradford a pocket (a big if) I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rams finish above the Cards. At worst they should be much more competitive than last season.
I just don’t think that St. Louis offense will work this season or ever, but we’ll see.
Could it be that Bradford will endure another OC in 3 years? Would that be an excuse or a reality of why NFL offenses are so reliant on continuity? Hmmm? Alexexcuse or what.
@scooter
Only if Kolb is the QB. The Cards D is very good. No surprise the Cards won games when Kolb left with injury.
Whether it be Kolb or Skelton, I don’t think much of the Cards offense.
That offense still has LF.
All the Niners WR’s combined are not even close to LF. LF may be the 2nd best WR ever.
And as Niner fans we know that you don’t need a great offense to stick it to a team. And that offense still has LF.
@Scooter,
I agree regarding the Rams. Their offense should be more productive with Isaiah Pead and Brian Quick. The combination of Pead and Stephen Jackson in the back field look scary on paper.
Their econdary should be tougher with the addition of Cortland Finnegan, Janoris Jenkins, and Trumaine Johnson.
Their D-line is a lot tougher with the addition of Michael Brockers to go along with DE’s Chris Long and Robert Quinn.
..Happy bday my QB Alex Smith. U keep getting younger and your haters get older!!!
One heck of a crush you have there…
Pathetic!!! Whats new. He’s a “oneniner” type of guy. GO NINERS!
Happy birthday to my man (Frank Gore words) Alex Smith.
Guess we know oneniner is FG now. A constant source of support for AS. Telling all those who don’t to keep themselves busy…yep.
FG is oneniner.
lol
Frank Gore has class. Onelame hasn’t had class since high school. He’s pathetic. And so is anyone that listens to or backs this troll.
All oneniner did was say happy birthday to a Niner player. If he insulted you, go to that thread and have at it with him there.
Ds… Stay off my porch. No one invited you.
The Bengals will be tough this year. I’d rank them #7 and ahead of Denver. I wouldn’t rank NY #1. They got hot at the right time last year and got some amazing breaks along the way. They were – after all – a 9-7 regular season team. My ranking is New England, Green Bay, SF, Houston, Pitt, Cinci, and NY Giants.
Dalton may hit the sophomore wall.
He might, but he was really impressive last year
I could be argued into putting the Texans at #1. They are the most balanced team in the league. The rest of the top 10 teams have major holes on either offense or defense, although Cinti is closer to balanced than not.
I think losing their best pass rusher in Williams was a bad move by the franchise.
They lost Williams for most of last year and didn’t miss a beat. Mario was super as a 4-3 DE but only very good as a 3-4 OLB. He was improving before he got hurt though.
Grant’s being possessed by the spirit of Al Davis…”He’s taller and faster, ergo, he’s better”. Comical.
I never said that.
And I’m not the one possessed by the spirit of Al Davis – Harbaalke is.
Man, you got the rude fairy in your corner today… Bad weekend? ;- )
So Harbaalke are now possessed by the spirit of AD? :) You forgot production. Grant you’re so easy my man…
Jenkins produced for a season and a half in college my guy. They drafted him because of his speed and his hands.
Which is interesting because he doesn’t appear to play fast on film unless it is against weak competition.
I agree. They overthought it.
Why were they the only people who clocked Jenkins at 4.31? Everyone else had him at 4.39.
Maybe they need new stopwatches?
His hands are so big that Harbaugh stopped his watch when they crossed the line. In other news the 49ers have announced a partnership with Tag Heuer to be their official stopwatch provider.
He ran 4.39 at the Combine. He was clocked between 4.31-4.33 at his Pro Day. Don’t they pay you to know this stuff Grant? There is the reason why the Rams brought in all the top WRs for private workouts(Blackmon, Floyd, Wright, Hill, Jenkins, Randle, Quick) and ranked AJ #3 behind only Floyd and Kendall Wright. He has the goods. But he’ll have to get stronger. He may struggle with press coverage intially. Those big DBs the Seahawks have will have a field day with him if he doesn’t improve his functionally strength. But he has the quicks and that will be his calling card early on.
He was clocked at 4.31 at his Pro Day…by the Niners.
The Rams are a horrible franchise. So what if they liked Jenkins? They also liked Kendall Wright, and drafted Quick over Randle.
The fact he is going to go off on his own time and workout with Jerry Rice is the reason why the Niners took him instead of some other guys with more pub. They liked his character and work ethic along with his onfield production and he is already showing he is willing to put the work in.
I liked Randle too – I predicted him as the Niners #1 pick – but I think you guys are underrating Jenkins big time. You’ve got to get past where he was rated by the draftnicks on the net. They missed big time on this guy. He was rated much higher by pro scouts and went where most had him rated.
Did i need to remind you grant, that AD drafted speed guys without production. so what you’re trying to say?
@Jack Hammer
Forgive me if I take Baalke opinion and my own eyes over yours. Jenkins to me has the tools from which to work with. Randle has good quailties but lacks the quick-twitch element physically to do much damage on the outside. He wasn’t worthy of being picked at #30. And since a whole league of GMs passed over him twice, I’ ll believe I was right in my assessment of his skill-set until further notice.
Jenkins has everything you can build on to make him a top target on the outside. Once he gets stronger and becomes route savy, he will flourish. He reminds me alot of Greg Jennings and he seems like a kid who wants to work to be the best, already getting in contact with Jerry Rice so they can do some hill work and get some tuteledge. And being that he is terribly similar to Grant’s draft crush, Jarius Wright, I dont see why Grant has such a negative take on his selection.
Did you feel this way about Jenkins before the draft, or only after Baalke picked him?
Are you a Brian Quick fan because the Rams drafted him?
Randle is quicker than Jenkins, who can’t make anyone miss after the catch. Randle will be a good outside WR, Jenkins will be a slot-possession-hot-route-blitz-buster-two-yard-crossing-route guy.
Jarius Wright was a beast in college – a four year starter in the SEC who averaged 17.5 yards a catch for his career. Jennings was a beast, too. Jenkins didn’t even start until his Junior year.
I’ve always liked Jenkins. I even mentioned him in your Jarius Wright blog. And for the record, I liked Quick….I liked Randle. I had them rated very similar. But they were not first round talent. I thought Jenkins was a fringe first rounder. I thought Marvin Jones was too but he went in the 5th so obviously other teams didnt. I remeber last year you didnt think very highly of our draft either. Randle is quicker than Jenkins? In what universe? You dont like the pick, fine….I get it. But stating your opinion as actual factual knowledge is just so wrong on so many levels. We’ll see who was right and who was wrong in about 9 months. Until then its just opinion versus opinion. Your defintely not going to sway mines and I doubt I’ll sway yours. Its is what it is until further notice
Yes, I did like the pick last year.
Jenkins will do fine – he’ll make a nice addition to the WR group at the 49ers. He may never be a true #1 WR, but then not many teams have these types of players. He’ll contribute and make some plays.
I said leading up to the draft I wasn’t a fan of Randle – he strikes me as a guy that will never play up to his talent level. But he’s fallen into a great situation – he’ll be the #3 WR on a hot offense, and he should be able to put up some decent stats. Like Jenkins, I don’t think he’ll ever be a #1 WR – but then at NY he’ll never have to be.
I do find it interesting though that Randle gets high marks for “producing” (for all of one season) while playing on an offense with a terrible QB, yet Jenkins does not, despite being the team’s leading WR 2 years running – and by some margin. I assume this is to do with the level of competition. Since Randle played in the SEC he will be good? In the last 6 games of last season Randle only had one game of more than 3 receptions. During the season he was held to 2 catches or less on 5 occassions. He really hasn’t done much at the college level to justify being so highly regarded.
Sophomore Randle caught more than three times as many passes as Sophomore Jenkins. If Randle played his Senior season with a decent quarterback he’d catch 90 balls easily in my humble opinion.
Any opinions I have on the wide receiver position are overshadowed by my trust in Coach and Baalke. I’m fine with whatever they do.
That’s a great point Scooter. I think people tend to gravitate to the bigger name from the bigger school or the workout warrior even when it’s not warranted. Hell most here would have been happy with Stephen Hill who didn’t catch half as many passes his entire College career as Jenkins did this season.
I’m interested to see just what swayed the Niners to take Jenkins.
Junior Jenkins caught more passes than Junior Randle, and both played with bad QBs… Junior Jenkins was also more consistent than Junior Randle. Senior Jenkins caught 90 balls with a bad QB. Randle had the same problems as Jenkins at college in terms of playing with a bad QB and not having any other receiving threats for defenses to worry about. Who knows whether Randle would have improved in his senior year.
Junior Randle played much stiffer competition than Junior Jenkins. Where was Junior Jenkins against Wisconsin and against Minnesota?
Grant, I understand your point about better competition, but if Randle is as good as you say, he still should have been more consistently productive in my opinion. I know he played in a run first team with poor QB play, but still – he was far from a dominant player. I know you’ll argue that Jenkins wasn’t dominant when he played against better competition, but he was more consistenly productive while battling the same issues that plagued Randle.
Jenkins accounted for over 1/4 (27.6%) of his teams total offensive production – Randle accounted for less than 1/5 (18.4%). Teams knew that if you took Jenkins out of the game, Illinois had nothing. Against LSU, teams knew they had to stop the run first and foremost.
Is accounting for a larger percentage of your college offense a good indicator of NFL success? I don’t think so.
Randle played top competition. Jenkins played mediocre defenses and started getting shut down by those mediocre defenses at the end of last season. His best games were against Northwestern and Indiana in October. They shouldn’t even count. They have next to no bearing on how Jenkins will play against NFL CBs.
Back in October, Randle caught 4 balls for 134 yards and a TD against the No. 8 ranked Florida passing defense, then followed that up the next week with 5 catches, 86 yards and a TD @ Tennessee, the No. 12 ranked pass defense in the nation.
And Alabama may have shut him down last season, but they didn’t shut him down in 2010. Randle caught 3 catches for 125 yards and a TD against them.
@Grant:
If Randle played his Senior season with a decent quarterback he’d catch 90 balls easily in my humble opinion.
Jenkins played his senior season without a decent QB, and he still managed to catch 90 balls.
In the Big 10, while being force fed the ball underneath.
@rocket
“I’m interested to see just what swayed the Niners to take Jenkins.”
I think you’ll find your answers here. As well as to the reason for all the Niner picks.
http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2012/05/07/49ers-draft-production-prevails/
@Grant
“Is accounting for a larger percentage of your college offense a good indicator of NFL success? I don’t think so.”
Well, it matters a lot more than average/catch does.
Really? As A Crabtree critic, I’m surprised you feel that way. Texas Tech force fed him the ball, he had a low YPC there, and teams should have seen the red flag.
Crabtree beat up on bad defenses and Texas, but he did little against Missouri, Baylor and Ole Miss.
Grant
I was totally in support of MC thru the hold out, up till that first game in his second year when he just stood there not trying to make a tackle on the DB who was covering him as he ran it in for a TD that pretty much sealed that game away.
Only after that did I point to the hold out, missed TC, etc. I won’t attack any player (does not mean I won’t look to replace them) if they show me heart, and they won’t put down other teammates (put downs of other teams is fine). Standing there though as the DB took that ball, that wasn’t a lack of skill. That was a lack of heart.
Then last year, I said I would give him another chance and I did. I supported him until he had the worse playoff performance of any Niner WR I can think of in 2 straight games and placed blame on others for it. That was the straw that broke the camels back.
As for the average thing, you should know by now that I don’t like to use stats at all in sports. In life and things that matter, stats matter. In sports, and football in particular, they don’t.
I care for players making big time plays in big time moments in big time games. What stat is that? If MC did that in college, I wanted him here. If Jenkins did that in college, I want him here.
All those stats can be misconstrued by offensive philosophy, skill talent at other positions, opponent and more. But big plays are big plays. And I’m not restricting it to 40 yard catches. Getting open despite being 2-3 teamed on a big 3/4th down play and giving the QB a window to throw it into, while making the catch (may only a 3 yard pass) with all those DB’s on you, that is what greatness is. Take a look at any HOF player, and they do that more than others. Can’t use stats to judge how good a player is. Time and rule changes and such effect all that. But making big plays in big games in big moments, that is the one thing that is consistent thru out time/eras/rule changes/etc.
If Jenkins does that for us, whereas MC up to now has not, then we will win more than 1 Super Bowl as a new Dynasty is born.
YPC matters. Jerry Rice averaged 16.5 yards per catch his senior year in college, then averaged more than 16.5 yards per catch his first five seasons in the NFL.
Then JR’s YPC dropped. But his skill did not. If anything he got better. Teams were 2/3 covering him, but it did not matter. When it mattered most, JR made the play. See that 1987(?) 2nd game of the season Cinci game. One shot to win it, everybody in the football world knew it was going to JR, yet he still made the catch.
That is greatness. Teams don’t game plan round YPC. They game plan around greatness hoping to stop it.
His YPC dropped because he turned 28, i.e. he got older, but he still managed more than 15 yards a catch four of the next six seasons. He averaged 14.8 yards a catch for his entire NFL career, and that takes into account all of less productive years from 34 on.
Also, most of those passes were like 5-10 yard passes. JR would run for like 10-20 yards more. So that YPC thing is not indicative of where he caught the ball. Only where the ball ended up after the play.
JM has repeatedly said he was very grateful to JR for that. “I throw 5 yards, he runs for 15″ is a common thing for JM to say when discussing the 80′s Niners.
JR also had one of the most accurate QB’s in the history of the NFL throwing to him. Crabtree and company don’t have that luxury. Thus the need for a guru to help fix the accuracy issues.
Rice was also faster and broke more tackles – was better after the catch in every way. He was going to average more than 14 yards a catch in his early and mid twenties no matter who was throwing to him.
JM had issues as well. Only BW was there and managed to work with JM for 2 full years before putting him in as the starter.
AS has had nobody remotely near BW. Not a comparison you can draw any meaningful conclusion from.
Grant,
There is no doubt Rice as infinitely better than Crabtree, no comparison. There is also no doubt that Rice benefited from having to HOF QB’s hitting him in stride so he could run away from the DB’s.
He didn’t break many tackles because he didn’t have to. That being said, he also made Jeff Kemp, Matt Cavanaugh, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac and Jeff Garcia look pretty good too. All QB’s who were more accurate than Smith.
Here’s my question: Do you think Crabtree could average 16 yards a catch over 60 catches from Tom Brady? I don’t. I think he could average 14 at best.
Yes, with Brady’s accuracy and the other weapons there creating space I believe he would.
I bet he averages 14-15 ypc this year.
Ok, you’re on. Gentleman’s bet.
I say Crabtree averages between 12.5 and 13.5 ypc this season.
Funny, NFL Net had a similar topic on yesterday when I was home for lunch, regarding Joe Montana.
The consensus was that Montana had an outstanding supporting cast with guys like JR and JT. There were few others that had that plus all agreed hands down that Bill Walsh made a difference.
Then of course there was the inevitable argument over wins and rings vs. stats. No one agrees on this. It’s either Marino or Montana as the GOAT depending on how you value / interpret success.
Anyway, roundabout distraction out of the way, I take Jerry Rice any day of the week over Crabs.
@Adam
SY was not a HOF player when he took over.
All those other QB’s never looked as good when they left and were without JR. JR was fine when JM/SY/Elvis/Bono/and more had left.
JR is just flat out better than any other.
Of course Adam. Rice was the best WR to ever play the game.
According to Grant the only stat that matters is yards per reception. So Andre Johnson sucks because he only average 13.7 ypr. Randle is amazing and is very quick even though he was in the bottom 1/3 of wr’s in the 3 cone drill at the combine. And all the teams in the NFL are stupid because they passed on him at least once. (NYG, passed on him with their first pick.)
Grant goes on about WI and Minn. but forgets about UCLA (bowl game), Mich., Purdue, Ohio State, and Az st.
BTW the big reason Jenkins is popular with us is because of the fact that he consistently got separation and showed sure hands while receiving passes from terribly inaccurate passers.
Andre Johnson averaged 14.9 ypc last season, 15.5 in ’09. He’s also a tall red zone threat, and an incredibly strong receiver.
UCLA – one of the worst pass defenses in college football last season – shut down A.J. Jenkins hard, save his one big play, the 5-yard catch on a quick slant turned into a 60-yard TD because UCLA blitzed up the middle and Jenkins was “covered” by 6-3 255 lb. DE Keenan Graham.
Besides that play, Jenkins caught five passes for 20 yards against UCLA.
As I was doing some research I came across these scouting profiles on NFL Draft Geek. I’ve no idea if these guys are respected or not, but the profiles for Randle and Jenkins are exactly on base with how I perceive them – for whatever that is worth.
http://www.nfldraftgeek.com/ruebenrandle.html
http://www.nfldraftgeek.com/ajjenkins.html
Key pros for Randle are size, above average speed for his size, and natural hands catcher. Key cons for Randle are underachiever and lacks an explosive burst/ not an explosive athlete.
Key pros for Jenkins are high football IQ/ understanding of the game, route running, and ability to keep defenders guessing (as well as speed and good hands). Key cons are his lack of size and strength, and that he doesn’t play to his timed speed.
I think those profiles summarise the two players pretty well.
Shoup,
Did you even see that Michigan game? It was all short routes that he was tackled immediately other than 1 deep dig route vs a prevent defense at the end of the game. If you actually watch him play good competition it is not that impressive. He can’t get separation, or beat man coverage deep.
Grant
Where do TD’s come into play for you? The point of the offense is to score TD’s, and WR’s are expected to be a major contributor in that. Average YPC does not score points. TD’s do. Yet you’ve barely peeped a word about them in your WR analysis.
And JR is the best ever because a WR would have to score 10 TD’s for 20 years. Not because of his average per catch.
TDs are very important. You need big receivers for the red zone.
Jack
How many drops in that Michigan game?
And oneniner likes claude. Don’t know if your comment down below was an insult or not. But if it was, didn’t work.
I posted a comment earlier but for some reason it is awaiting moderation – essentially a link to NFL Draft Geek. I think their profiles summarise Randle and Jenkins pretty well. If Grant approves my previous post I recommend having a look at them. Cliff notes are:
Key pros for Randle are size, above average speed for his size, and natural hands catcher. Key cons for Randle are underachiever and lacks an explosive burst/ not an explosive athlete.
Key pros for Jenkins are high football IQ/ understanding of the game, route running, and ability to keep defenders guessing (as well as speed and good hands). Key cons are his lack of size and strength, and that he doesn’t play to his timed speed.
I don’t think there was one in that game. He does a nice job of catching the ball on those 5 hard hitch routes.
The point is, against decent competition he becomes a short yardage possession receiver.
I saw the Michigan game. Michigan was up early which allowed them not to respect the running game of Illinois. Their base defense was essentially a nickle in which they played Jenkins with a 10 yard cushion and a safety overtop. Its very hard to beat someone deep when you only have a bad qb, and only one good receiver and the other team doesn’t have to worry about the run. I don’t know if anyone on here has experience as a coach but almost any idiot can scheme a way to stop one player with all those circumstances working in their favor.
@John
Would that “idiot? coach include “I need to see the film” MS?
:- )
Shoup,
The main point is that as the competition improved Jenkins’ explosiveness vanished. He had only 2 catches of 20+ yards in the second half of the regular season. He does not play like a WR with 4.3 speed.
Jack, the improved competition also coincided with Jenkins leading college football in receiving yards. As John says – by the time he came up against tougher competition, every team knew they only needed to respect one offensive player, and they took him out of the equation accordingly. Not surprisingly, once teams started doing this, Illinois lost 6 straight.
Vernon Davis would understand. His big game last season came against a Saints team that for some inexplicable reason left him in single coverage. But for most of the season teams were able to hold him in check because he was the only legit danger in our passing game. Most of his catches were underneath last season, yet he is the 49ers most dangerous deep threat.
Scooter,
Watch any of the games in the second half of the season. 2 catches of 20+ yards, and 0 TD’s. They aren’t stopping him with double teams. They are stopping him by playing good man and zone coverage.
If this is happening in the Big10 what do you think will happen when he plays against NFL defenses week in and week out. Unfortunately I don’t see Northwestern or Arkansas State (his 2 biggest games) anywhere on our schedule.
Jack,
With all do respect Michigan and Penn state both played man coverage but they were consistently sliding the safety over top. Scheelhaase (his qb) stated that they split him out wide in hopes of giving him more space hoping to get him away from all the double teams.
Scheelhaase also has to factor into this as he is not very accurate deep and has a pretty weak arm.
BTW here is a link of what Cosell thinks on the niners draft. http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/05/07/cosell-talks-nfc-west-draft-pick-post-mortum/?module=HP11_content_stream
Shoup,
2 catches for 20+ yards, and 0 TD’s vs good competition. He doesn’t play as fast as his 40 time suggests, doesn’t win on jump balls, and has trouble beating Big10 DB’s deep. Over the top coverage or not, the CB is almost always on top of him when he tries to go deep.
The good part is he doesn’t drop many balls and does a good job catching the 5 yard hitch and crossing route. Unless Moss can’t get it done he will be a nice 4th receiver while he develops his strength and skills.
Ok, we will have to agree to disagree on this. As late in the year the Illinois qb play was so bad that they replaced the starter. Coach Zook made the following statement “Zook said the drop-off had something to do with the extra attention Jenkins began to receive. He also said Jenkins would have benefited from better quarterback play.
“Nathan, as much as I love him like a son, we didn’t get him the ball,” Zook said. “Nathan is more a running-type quarterback than he is a throwing-type quarterback. We didn’t do as good a job of getting A.J. the football later in the year.”
Its hard to tell just how good he could have been considering the circumstances he was playing under what is known is that he got open and caught the balls thrown his way for the most part.
As to the jump ball argument, I dont really care that much. If I have a receiver that is constantly having to win jump ball situations I have a receiver who is not getting open. Since everyone seems to want to compare these rookies to rice, how often do you remember rice winning jump ball situations. It didnt happen very often as he was so good at getting open.
@John Shoup:
You’ll have to forgive Jack. He seems to have a blind spot about A.J. Jenkins. Somehow the fact that Jenkins couldn’t get deep against defenses that played 7-10 yards off of him leads Jack to believe that Jenkins cannot get deep against better competition.
He denies it, but I think Jack resents Jenkins because the 49ers drafted him instead over Fleener.
*drafted him instead of Fleener
Sorry.
Nice try Claude but not really. If he can’t beat a decent Big10 corner, what makes you think he will all of a sudden do it in the NFL against better DB’s?
I have watched games from both the last 2 years and he primarily runs 2 routes, the drag route from the slot, and either a hitch or curl when lined up outside.
He is a nice possesion receiver, not a game breaker. My suggestion on Jenkins is keep your expectations low otherwise you are going to be very disappointed later.
@Jack:
If he can’t beat a decent Big10 corner, what makes you think he will all of a sudden do it in the NFL against better DB’s?
Because NFL DBs will not have the luxury of giving Jenkins 7-10 yard cushions on every play. If they do, then the 49ers will throw on them all day like teams did against Manusky’s defenses when he had the CBs give big cushions to receivers.
You are certain that Jenkins’ big play numbers went down later in the 2011 season solely because he was playing against superior talent. I don’t know why, but you refuse to consider the possibility that the schemes teams chose to play against Illinois/Jenkins in the second half of the season (huge cushions, safeties over the top, etc.) had anything/a lot to do with Illinois not being able to go deep. That’s exactly what I saw in the Michigan tape.
Claude,
The CB’s are running right with him on almost every deep ball. They don’t need to double him because he won’t beat them anyway. They will give up the underneath stuff because be isn’t a big threat after getting the ball either.
As I have said, he doesn’t play up to his 4.3 speed. He is an underneath, possession receiver.
Jack
Why can’t you just cheer for the Niners new #1 draft pick instead of trying to find holes in his game?
That is the job of the other team, and of our own team (to fix). Why can’t you just be happy we have a new WR instead of trying to bash the guy before he even steps onto an NFL field?
Remember that little conversation we had just before the draft about mock drafts and why I don’t like them? This is why I don’t like them. You cheer for your team until they give you a reason not to cheer for them. Since Jenkins has done nothing to cause me to not cheer for him, why with the constant battling? Do you really think you uncovered anything that JH/TB/Niner scouts did not?
@Jack:
The CB’s are running right with him on almost every deep ball.
… because they have a 7-10 yard head start on almost every play. And look what happened in the Michigan game the one time that the CB came up to play tight coverage.
You only see what you want to see when you look at those tapes. As John Shoup said, we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Claude,
Try actually watching more than 1 game prior to coming to a conclusion. I guess this should be expected from a guy who says that Alex Smith was a better college QB than Josh Johnson based on no facts since he never even watched the guy play a down of college ball at USD prior to making that statement.
My thing with Jenkins is that people need to set their expectations of this guy a little lower. In the run up to the draft I often mentioned that I thought the draft would be more about building for the future and this pick demonstrates that. It is going to take time for him to develop at the NFL level. His impact in 2012 will probably be minimal unless we have a lot of injuries.
@jack
“In the run up to the draft I often mentioned that I thought the draft would be more about building for the future and this pick demonstrates that.”
Nothing you have said since the moment that pick was made suggests this. If so, you would be happy then right? Jenkins according to you is a guy who will be really good in the future. So, the Niners picked a guy who is going to be good in the future. Something you said you wanted above. Yet he was a bad pick and you take every opportunity to smash the guy.
You know Jack, this is America. We are able/allowed to come to our own conclusions all by ourselves. How about you let us? You say I am obsessed with MC stuff (you by the way are a major factor in that ongoing discussion by the way), well, Jenkins is your MC. He is a Niner. Like him or not. You have spent a lot of time bashing a guy who will definitely be here for several more years and who the Niners have bet a good part of their future on.
Jack,
In the highlights of the Michigan and Penn State game they showed him run one fly pattern route. On that route he was definitely hit well beyond the 5 yard marker. Its a big assumption that he cant get open deep based on the route tree he ran with the coverage they were playing. Also he made a key reception while being hit from behind in the Penn St. game to get his team within range for the tying field goal.
One other key factor was that he consistently secured the ball and picked up first downs in 3rd down situations in spite of defenses knowing he was the only legit threat on that offense. So even if he doesn’t prove to be a big play threat at the pro level but is able to get open and move the chains on 3rd down, I can live with that.
@Jack:
Try actually watching more than 1 game prior to coming to a conclusion.
Wow, talk about getting something completely backwards. The only “conclusions” that I have come to with regard to Jenkins are (1) that you have prematurely judged him and (2) that you have misdecribed the evidence you claim supports your premature conclusion.
You are the one who has touted the Michigan tape as conclusive evidence of Jenkins’ inability to get open deep against “better competition.” All I did was watch the tape you provided and note that it was equally, or perhaps more, likely that Jenkins’ lack of deep catches was due to the entire Michigan secondary playing deep.
I have made no predictions of Jenkins’ likely production in the NFL. You have. I also don’t have any particular expectations at this time, other than those that come from Baalke and Harbaugh liking him. Don’t confuse my questioning of your premature conclusion with the adoption of an equally certain counter conclusion.
I guess this should be expected from a guy who says that Alex Smith was a better college QB than Josh Johnson based on no facts since he never even watched the guy play a down of college ball at USD prior to making that statement.
Putting aside for the moment my belief that this is a rather obvious and clumsy attempt at diversion, I am mystified that you are so outraged by my statement. I don’t need to have watched Josh Johnson play in college to know that his admittedly impressive college performance came in Division 1-AA. I also don’t need to have watched him play to know that NFL talent evaluators viewed that performance as warranting him being drafted at the end of the 5th round.
Shoup, “So even if he doesn’t prove to be a big play threat at the pro level but is able to get open and move the chains on 3rd down, I can live with that”
I totally agree with that, and think that is mostly how he will be utilized early on. I know that many on here think I am bashing the guy, however I am just trying to show some of the flaws that he has in his game right now. I have commented a few times with both the positives and negatives that I see in his game. He seems like a good, smart kid and as a 49er fan I hope that he can be another piece in the puzzle to get us back to Super Sunday.
You’ve commented a lot more negatives than positives Jack. You were the lead negative commenter on Grant’s blog about the Niners blowing it not picking Fleener.
DS, If you only want to look at and discuss the positives in the players that is your choice, just apply that to all of the players on your favorite team.
In my last comment I mentied the things that I think he can bring to the team this year, and have done so in previous comments as well. If you don’t like my comments then just simply ignore them.
**mentioned**
Jack
We’ve never seen Jenkins on an NFL field. Much less on our team with our coaching staff and our players as his teammates.
I have seen the players who were on the team last year. There is a big difference between the two.
DS, Thanks for reading. Have a great day.
Jack, the only positive comments you’ve made about Jenkins is that he can run underneath routes. But you refuse to acknowledge that the routes he ran in college were largely due to (a) secondary’s playing deep and giving the underneath stuff (b) playing with a QB that can’t throw a deep pass well (c) a coach that realised both (a) and (b) and so had Jenkins running these routes more often to take advantage of (a) and minimise (b).
You have used your conclusions to state that Jenkins simply can’t be an effective intermediate or deep threat. You have stated that because defenders when giving a 7 – 10 yard cushion could stay with him downfield he doesn’t play fast (btw, just because the CBs he played against weren’t household names doesn’t mean they can’t run either). To me, that suggests defenses were afraid of his ability to get deep, and defended him accordingly. Give him the short stuff, but keep him in front of you as much as possible.
Scooter,
Watch him try to beat press coverage in the OSU game, but I digress. Positives, good hands, good route running and smart guy. The rest of my opinions are well known and will be proven true or false starting in August.
Since when did it matter what school you came out of? what school did Jerry come from? what school did fitz come from? What school did TO come from (even though he is a diva he was a good wr)? It soesnt matter if it was a SEC, big 10, big 12, acc, what ever. It matters what you do in the NFL and that is it.
“Manningham is 5-10 (actually he’s 6-0) and doesn’t go over the middle. Randle is 6-3 and does everything.”
While not exactly the same, the spirit was there. I say lets see them play 4 games, and not preseason, before saying boldly that one is better than the other.
But NYG should be #1, champs earn that respect….I feel like a Mavericks player.
I get updates on all the articles that are 49er related and I wish I could filter out all the garbage that you write… It would save me time and many repeated facepalms for having read such nonsense. Maybe you could get a job writing for the browns, their fans never expect to have a winner. You would fit right in!
You forgot about Jason Peters on the Eagles for key losses… Achilles tear. That will hurt them; or Vick and Mccoy to be specific.
Good call. Thanks.
Vick is the most over rated qb in the NFL, can they just make him a rb already…..Vick had one good year and that was just so he could get that big contract he got for nothing.
Lions should be about #7. They’re better than the Eagles and Cowboys (unless the Cowboys ever learn to play together).
For all the attention the Niner’s receiving corp has…*ahem*…received…
The Niner’s fortunes will rest on how effective the run game will be. The passing game, while incredibly important, is a supplement to the run game. The questions are 1. how much does Gore have left in the tank? 2. Will Hunter continue to progress as Gore’s back up or will he be relegated to being the 3rd back? 3. How will James be used if at all? 4. Will the Niners use a big back and what does that mean for Boobie and Brandon?
I would not look at a drastic change in the brand of football we saw last year. Don’t expect to see regular bombs to Moss or 50 yard plays to Manningham.
Very interesting re: the running game, but it always comes down to 10-15 third-down passing plays a game. You can’t avoid it. You have to convert at least 3 out of 10, preferably 4 out of 10.
heavily dependent on the success of 1st and 2nd downs and imo is what has been addressed this off season…cut down on the long 3rd down plays
True, but they struggled just as much on third and short.
yes but it makes a huge difference if those 3rd downs are 3rd and 4 vs. 3rd and 7.
that little 3 yard difference is generally the run game working or not working.
also, if the box is stacked it will be how effective the coaches and Smith counter by utilizing a short and quick passing game that possibly includes James out of the backfield and Jenkins in the slot. Again, it’s not about bombs away, it’s about manageable 3rd downs and moving the chains for field position. It’s not a sexy strategy but it’s what worked last year. And I think just a little extra quick dynamics in the passing game will make all the difference within the context of the (conservative) offensive strategy (of moving the chains and field position).
all that being said, I think you will see the Niners go deep when the match ups are favorable. Or as Harbaugh/Roman say they will take their “shots” (which means well timed and tactically sound from a opponents tendencies, field position and match up standpoint).
But planning on being able to go deep on 3rd and long is not what coaches like to plan for. They’d rather avoid 3rd and long all together.
I completely agree with your comments. 49ers will still be a run-first offense but with the offensive addtions should have an enhanced capacity to make some big plays in both the passing and running game. They will take some shots downfield, but it won’t be their staple.
It’s not about shots downfield. It’s about completing the three yard pass on third down.
wow, i think we may be in some sort of agreement here Grant. As I said the Running Game is about getting into manageable 3rd downs. Maybe James and Jenkins add a quick dynamic that allows them get those 3rd and short situations and to counter stacked boxes in 1st and 2nd down.
I think we are. Smith has to hit those guys in stride on third down, though, something he’s struggled with.
Grant,
It’s not about shots downfield. It’s about completing the three yard pass on third down
They did complete the 3 yard pass on 3rd down; problem was they needed 6.
They were the worst in the league last year on third and short.
Grant, here’s an interesting analysis of 3rd down statistics by teams.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/01/is-3rd-down-conversion-percentage-good.html
Basically it says that a team’s 3rd down conversion stats aren’t great predictors for how well a team will do on 3rd down conversions in the future. But passing efficiency is a good predictor. Not exactly a startling revelation. Though interesting when applied to the Niners. Their 3rd down conversion rate was poor but their passing efficiency was good. But their overall passing ranking in terms of yards was near the bottom of the league (29th I think?). To a large degree it was poor execution by Smith and the receivers, part of it was conservative play calling that lead to more 3rd downs and part of it was the excellent field position given to the offense by special teams and the defense (I think…I haven’t checked the stats).
Last season our receivers coulnt get off the line, they couldnt get separation, and when they did get open the ball would either hit them in the hands or the numbers and watch it fall to the ground.
Grant… Plz tell me where you think Luck will out perform griffin next year n beyond? If anyone will have a Newton season, its Griffin. Your man crush on Fleener biased that prediction. Griffin in my opinion will outshine Luck. Espeicially the 1st couple of Years because the skins have better offensive weapons. Arent you the same onne that predicted Newton would be horrible? Hmmmm. Just saying. The niners, who have recently been good at judging talent passed on Fleener because they thought Aj was a better prospect and player. More speed better hands, etc. In retrospect they dont thiink he wil be betterr than D walker. If they did Fleener would be wearing the gold helmet. Its the same syndrom the Jazz had toward JIMMER!!!!They got a better player in Alec Burks and Enis Kanter. So if you have time, plz explain why you think Griffin will be a dud n Luck will be john elway. I see Steve young all over n inside RG3 . This man will be a perrineal All Pro. In my opinion, better than Luck
First of all, Jenkins and Randle have the same size hands – 9.5″.
Griffin’s on a mission to become the first great NFL QB from the Big XII ever.
He mostly had a clean pocket in college. How will he respond to chaos in his face? I’m expecting lots of sacks and turnovers the first season.
Luck is a sure thing. He’ll come to the league an 8 and develop into a 9 very quickly.
“Griffin’s on a mission to become the first great NFL QB from the Big XII ever”. Troy Aikman wasn’t bad ; )
UCLA! Touche.
Indy’s offensive line is not that great and Luck is not the most fleet of foot. I see defenses blitzing Luck like nobody’s business and your boy hood hero Fleener will need to stay in and block, which he does not do well.
Luck is just as fleet of foot as Newton is, plus Luck is very good at sliding in the pocket.
Your comparing Newtons ability to elude the rush with Andrew Luck’? Grant, Newton is right up there with Vick in terms of evasiveness in the pocket, Luck is no where near the level of athleticism as Newton. Add the fact Indy will have some new starters on their line, Luck is in for a very long year.
They ran the same 40, jumped the same broad jump and vertical leap, plus Luck’s a better pocket passer than Newton in every way.
40 times and vertical jump, although great barometers of athleticism, cannot account for when the pocket collapses, what the QB is able to create on his own.
Luck has played in a very structured, methodical offense in college. When things break down in the NFL, they break down in a hurry and Newton made things happen in a hurry with a poor WR core and satisfactory o-line.
Luck enters the NFL with a poor offensive line, very little to no running game, and a new defense. Meaning he is going to be under durress a lot and will need to make something out of nothing. He has all the tools, just no support and no ability to consistenlty elude pass rushers, like Newton has.
I predict Luck takes more sacks than both RGIII and Newton this year.
Luck consistently eluded pass rushers in a pro system in college. He’ll take less sacks than those two.
Predictions are not your forte Mr. Junior reporter. I’m 100% right in guaranteeing everything you have ever predicted has never remotely come close to actually being true or coming true. Reminds me of another close friend of yours in 23welcher.
First of all, Jenkins and Randle have the same size hands – 9.5″.
Griffin’s on a mission to become the first good NFL QB from the Big XII ever.
He mostly had a clean pocket in college. How will he respond to chaos in his face? I’m expecting lots of sacks and turnovers the first season.
Giants don’t deserve to be number one. They will tank this year, the same as most Super Bowl winners do. But it will be worse for them. Even in their weak division the could have trouble getting into the playoffs. Personally I think this is an oddball year. Maybe the Packers/Patriots get back, but it might be something from the Way Back Machine like Bengals/Niners in the SB…
Have you been reading my thoughts?
If the 49ers beat the Bengals in another SB the state of Ohio might declare war on California.
Shannahan isnt over the hill. He took over a garbage team, and had them in alot of games that were lost in the 4th quater last year. That team will be contending in 3 years after they have built the team to their style. Only if snyder doesnt ship him out n have the new coach get the credit. lol
If my memory serves me correctly, the Niners didnt have too much trouble moving the ball until they got into the red zone. What happens to the team when they reach that point? Was it a personel problem or play calling problem, was it the lines problem, or as the anti-Smiths would put it, it was Smiths problem alone. If it was a personel problem have we solved it, if it was play calling does it change and if it was Smiths problem does he fix it. It just seem to me once we got into the red-zone something changed. Too me that and that alone will be what determines if we go to the Super Bowl. Got to fix the red-zone problem. I am not sure if its fixed and probably wont know till the season.
And Grant the best team doesnt always win, the Giants are not the best team in football. It just looks that way.
The Giants have an elite QB, the best WRs 1 through 3 on the depth chart in NFL, the best pass rush in the NFL, plus two very good running backs.
Remember, Bradshaw was hurt last season and Jacobs was not good. Now Bradshaw’s healthy and they’ve got a first round pick backing him up.
They’re the best team.
There is only one elite QB in the NFL…….His name is Tom Brady. Everyone tosses the word Elite around with out knowing the definition of the word.
They ranked 31st in third down efficiency ahead of the Rams and behind the Tebows.
Still they moved the ball till the red zone or has my mind starting that downhill slide lol.
No, they just had a lot of short fields off turnovers, and usually had one or two sustained drives a game. The bulk of the time, it was three-and-out or very close. An area we have to improve on this year.
Space.
As you near the goal, there is less of it.
Passes, routes, running lanes all dimenish. The same quality route/pass that worked at the 40, won’t work here. Defenders are responsible for less territory, so the offense needs to really perform at a higher level.
And that really only happens with reps. You can get some improvement with better players, but reps are vital. And that takes time. And participation by players.
Ill bet Manningham has a better season than randle…
You’re on. Gentleman’s bet.
One guy faces No. 3 CBs and catches passes from Eli Manning. The other will face No. 1 CBs and catch passes from Alex Smith. I like my chances.
Hey that reminds me Grant….In your face :)
I’ll take that :)
Gentlemens bet. Cool im down. If Alex cant get the ball to these weapons productively, i honestly think he will be replaced. Mann 6 tds Randle 2. Lol
I think the 49ers and the packers are better than the Pats.
I agree. Two teams who cant stop the pass or run. No Bueno. Sink them a spot and move the 9ers up 2
The 49ers hung toe to toe with the Giants and the Giants blew right through the Packers and Patriots.
NYG Dont even make the playoffs next season. You watch.
I think Philly takes the division and Dallas gets a wildcard. NYG will find themselves watching the postseason
You have more confidence in Vick and Romo than Eli Manning?
I think the skins make it in this year
Grant… I think Vick and Rg3 will be good enough to get those teams to the playoffs (like smith last year) they have a solid team around them to carry OK qb play. The Giants have a history of being up and down. I see them sitting home next January.
The giants wouldnt have made the playoffs if it wasnt for the choke artist in dallas, romo
Washington at 28? Thats awful. RG3 will be the best rookie QB and i think they will finish around 8-8 or better next season. To have the colts and vikings above them is blind.
What’s so great about Washington? They’re always awful. Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan are NBD. Griffin will struggle his rookie season. He isn’t Cam Newton, who dominated the SEC before his rookie season.
Washington has a really good and young Defense witht he exception of Fletcher. Now on offense they will have Santana Moss, Pierre Garcon, Joshua Morgan and at TE Fred David and Cooley. RG3 went to a much more prepared team to win now. And that alone will help him succeed and transition faster than Luck.
You like their secondary? Their run defense? They have a pass rush and that’s it – that’s how I see it. They won’t play with a lead much so they won’t benefit from it.
he has a veteran TE in Fred Davis as well, a running game in washington and way better coaches.
I’ve got one word on why RG3 won’t do much this year…Shanahan. I think RG3 will turn out to be an ok quarterback but the guy played at Baylor, do they even play any real college teams?
I think all Sport Writers should post their selections for the coming year and then we can review them all at the end of the season to see who really knows what they are talking about. It would be fun as well.
Whoa…some of these are brutal.
Manningham may not want to patrol the middle but Crabs is perfectly willing and has the size for it, tho hopefully not on every play as he would wear out quickly. Randle was a beast at LSU and should do well. Doesn’t matter tho, he isn’t a 49er so who cares.
Are these the NFL’s power rankings or yours? Jets are probably a bit low on this but I don’t mind as I loath them. I hope Tebow is starting by week 3 as they would definitely be screwed then. Smith working on his mechanics is a good thing…I guess. I read that he locks his left (front) leg when moving forward during the throwing motion. Man, that seems really awkward, no wonder.
Go Niners!!
Power Rankings at this time of the year is like similar to the draft. Lot of injuries are on the horizon before opening day. But as it stands now I will offer my Power.
1. Niners – most complete team in football. We beat ourselves in 3 of the 4 losses and the other against the Ravens was there for the taking. Damn good and getting better. You got any complaints with this pick take it up with Grant. Plus the Niners are my team so I might be prejudice.
2. Packers – Currently the best offense in football and looking like they are getting better on defense.
3. Patriots – Great offense and seems like they got lots better on defense and one of the smartest headcoaches in football. And dont give me spygate crap either, they are good period.
4. Texans – If they remain healthy lookout Patriots.
5. Steelers – Getting old but until proven otherwise this is where they go.
6. Giants – Yup I think I am being nice giving this much power to a 9-7 team. Yea, yea, they won the super bowl okay I got it.
7. Bengals – Going to make the playoffs this team is on the rise.
8. Bears – Stay injury free if you want this position.
9. Eagles – Last year I believe was a fluke. I bet no team wants to play them.
10. Cowboys – I hate this team.
11. Ravens – This team is probably better then this but I didnt know where to put them so I put them here.
12. Lions – A headcoach that cant handle a firm handshake and a good pat on the back will never make it to the top ten.
13. Broncos – Yup they got the Elite Manning good thing too or they would really be bad.
14. Falcons – They seem better then this but they play down to their oppenents.
15. Saints – The Saints go marching…down the tubes they better get Brees signed or number 32 is on the horizon.
16. Chargers – What do you call a team like the Chargers? Beats the hell out of me. Talented but……..sound familiar?
17. Cards – Good defense, we gave them a game last year, we wont make that mistake again.
18. Panthers – I know, I know they got Newton, I still say he is overrated. Teams will make their adjustments, not sure if rest of team is there yet.
19. Jets – Any team that has Tebow has a chance to win. Did I just say that.
20. Seahawks – I just dont like this team – good defense though going to be tuff.
21. Chiefs – Dont have much to say about them figure this spot was good as any.
22. Raiders – Things are differnet in Raider town now that Al is done and gone. I loved a quote from Al. Most people say great mines think alike. Al says if your thinking alike is anyone even thinking. Raiders never have gotton ride of the LA stink.
23. Bucs – Thanks for Steve Young, and JJ(a sleeper QB).
24. Bills – I just cant figure your team out yet. You might be good, you might be bad.
25. Titans – Ok
26. Redskins – You beat the Giants twice last year even the Niners couldnt do that.
27. Colts – They are going to be Lucky. ( I just couldnt resist)
28. Browns – Maybe next year eh.
29. Rams – I hate this team they will always have the LA stink on them. Fisher is going to get this team turned around.
30. Jags – New everything
31. Dolphins – Marino where are you?
32. Vikings – Lets see, the packers, bears, lions, oh my, and a game against the niners. Not sure where you are going to win one.
Great list. Thanks, undercenter.
Great list Undercenter. I would flip-flop the Cards and Seabastards and I don’t trust the Bears until they show me that offensive line can block. And now it has Rachal stank all over it.
Also, I believe it is a criminal offense to include the Browns in the top 32.
undercenter
The Seahawks are next to impossible to beat in Seattle. That all but asures them to be around .500 at least. And smart strong defenses travel well. They win on the road this year, or bye-bye Pete.
Similar deal with the Cards. Their D can keep them in games. And LF in the 4th quarter is freaky scary.
Any team that plays sound D and can pressure without blitzing is in the playoff hunt. And I think there are more of these teams than teams with elite QB’s.
The Seachickens are 15-17 at home over the past four seasons. Not exactly next to impossible to beat at home.
The Saints and Ravens might think differently.
And how did the Seahawks do on the road? Fact is, they are bad. Any other team is not winning 15 games. More like 5. And how many were blowout losses?
And the past 3 seasons, how great have the Niners been? How does that remotely matter for this coming season? Same thing.
Nice job with your list underwater.
Really like the side notes, especially your take on the raiders having the L.A. stink on them. How true…
@AES
Underwater?
Come on now. Undercenter is a regular here. I’m assuming you were not insulting him, but you really missed with this typo.
*undercenter* Apologies.
Thanks for the heads-up DS.
AES
I took it as funny, not personal. I use to do lots of scuba diving so that name kind of applies also.
GC,
I don’t know about the power rankings at this point in the offseason, but I will say the N.E. Pats should not be ranked at #2. They had the #31 defense last year and I’d put the 9ers 3rd behind the NYG’s and Packers. N.E. would be 4th at best. Even though the Pats drafted defensive players, it will take time before they play at an NFL level. Overall a good job but make those changes I mention and you are spot on.
The Pats have been adressing their D as long as the Warriors have been looking for a big man.
Come on now. Don’t fall for that line Grant.
I see what you’re saying. I think their offense will be scary good with Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney and a healthy Rob Gronkowski, not to mention Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez and Danny Woodhead.
That’s a pretty intimidating set of weapons. Can the 49ers defense stop it at Gillette stadium? I hope so.
Grant
The Pats also had the easiest team, and the most luck in the playoffs.
Tebow led Broncos and the TD that wasn’t called in the title game. Brady played horribly in all but the Bronco game, throwing 4th quarter Int in the title game and Super Bowl. When was the last time he lit up a great defense? That last Super Bowl run was handed to him on a silver platter, and he stank it up.
This year he plays us. And he’ll learn how a defense plays in his home stadium. The Pats D will find out just how much further they have to go. And Brady will count his blessings he is not in the NFC. Particularly the West.
Can’t wait.
Brady can’t do much if he’s on his back.
The Pats will have to cheat and get some secret practice video to have a chance. They’ve never seen a defense like what we’re bringing.
In all honesty, we had a better team than the Giants and should have played the Pats in the SB (and won). We just slipped and played “2010 killing ourselves” football in the championship game.
I don’t see that happening again.
They also made it to the SB with the 31st ranked defense. A incremental improvement on defense would have a big impact on that team. I don’t care for Josh Mcdaniels, but he will have that offense playing lights out. They are absolutely loaded.
Pats made the Super Bowl with 31st ranked D in basically a rebuilding year for them. If anything, they should be #1 in the power rankings. They also have the easiest schedule this year and get the Niners at home in December when it’ll be snowing. Good luck to the rest of the NFL.
I agree with you on most of the rankings. A few teams here and there I would move a couple spots up or down.With the exception of 2 teams. you have Houston rated way too high you missed a key loss FB Vickers without him their running game will be hurt a lot more than you expect. the other is KC they are going to be much better this year as they boosted their offence with a few players that will play with a lot of heart and will surprise a lot of people.
I come on this blog to laugh. This guy thats doing rankings of NFL teams is the same guy who said for certain the Niners would draft Fleener, They didn’t and they broke this guys heart for not drafting Fleener. So whats he do throw a fit like a 5 year old. This blog went down hill when Matt and Eric left. But hey its nice to come on here and laugh.
Sometimes I can’t help but think Balke is drinking too much of his own cool aid. Why does he insist on drafting small speed guys. We are the friggin Niners, West Coast Offense? I thought we fired Martz, so why do we keep drafting players for his offense? To me, I think we still need a big WR to groom for Moss’s position. While I like James, with a healthy Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs, you couldn’t throw us a bone? We passed on Randall twice, and I think that will haunt us. The storried franchises embrace their identity, while we have gotten lip service about the WCO, I think the people drafting have no roots, they draw their philosophy from Bill Parcells, the Colts and Rams and it shows.
They are smart, they are adapting to the receiver friendly rules of the NFL. The whole WCO identity is overblown. The NFL has evolved. If Bill Walsh was alive and still coaching, I’m sure his offense would look much different now. The WCO was brilliant because it was ahead of it’s time. It is still utilized across the NFL, it’s just not the pure system it was in the 80′s. I would think that Alex Smith would probably have more success coming into the NFL today because teams are more willing to embrace spread style offenses and adapt the offense to the QB’s coming out of college. Carolina did a great job of tailoring the offense to Cam Newton instead of trying to make him run a certain system.
If Bill Walsh were in charge I could see him drafting a guy like Jenkins anyway – much like he did John Taylor. He was an advocate of quick WRs that get in and out of their routes well, not big WRs that can go for jump balls but don’t create much separation. Its a misnomer that WRs in the WCO need to be big, strong guys. Its a timing based offense and you need WRs that can get to an exact spot at exactly the right time.
no one runs a pure West Coast Offense anymore anyway. Rules for defensive backs, offensive tackles being allowed a slight step back from the line of scrimmage and quick substitution packages (partially thanks to sideline to helmet communication) make deeper passing a bit more advantageous than in Walsh’s day. Look at the Packers and Eagles who run the WCO. They’re bombs away deep which is integrated with the shorter more traditional WCO routes.
This is a bit old – but great video on Patrick Willis:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvZqyoWcGrc
Best 12 minutes of my day.
Good stuff. This is on the lighter side, but still good…. ;P
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV-IqEmmNu0
That was good
Power Rankings are a necessary evil in the NFL. They are given at the beginning of the season based on last years production. We should have a better picture of a teams direction by the 5-6 game of the season.
The G-men will make the playoffs but a SB will be difficult. They needed overtime and a muffed punt return to beat a team with an enemic 3rd down and redzone effeciency.
The Packers can’t be counted out because of arguably the best QB in football. Same goes for New England.
The 49ers are primed to make a strong run at a SB this season. I believe every person on the team and front office knows it should have brought home the trophy last year. They will be better at every position (sans OG) and bring it home in 2012.
Not to bring up a dead horse but when Kyle Williams gets cut does that count as a key addition.
DS94everXev says:
May 8, 2012 at 6:18 am
“All oneniner did was say happy birthday to a Niner player. If he insulted you, go to that thread and have at it with him there.”
The only thing more pathetic then ‘oneAlex’ act, is your need to defend him DS. This person continues to spew ‘messes’ every time he opens his mouth, and you continue to go behind him to try to mop up.
You’re better then this.
AES
Then go to those threads.
Don’t ruin what should have been a nice thread.
@ rathman a.j. jenkins is the next john taylor and J.T. was fine in the WCO.
@old coach
JT would have been the #1 WR on the other 27 NFL teams. If Jenkins is as good as JT was, we are gold.
Finally someone telling it like it is about these Top Ten drafted quarterbacks. I think Gabbert was valued so highly because of his haircut at the time. The best quarterback in that class was Ryan Mallett; the jury’s out on Newton–let him win some games first for the full-on adoration to mean much.
The jury is out on cam newton? the greatest rookie season in the history of the nfl and the juries out? did you see carolina play the yr before newton got there? any wins they had last yr were totally on his back. sorry the jury is in and its almost unanimous [your vote does count] he is a stud
Easy to rack up paper greatness when there’s nothing to lose, since the team is tanking anyway. Give Cam another year to truly prove his worth.
Did you idolize Steve DeBerg, too?
i believe deberg played about 17 yrs in the nfl and i do’nt think he had a single yr that even remotley resembled newtons rookie yr. why do i get the feeling you were one of the many who were saying he was going to be a bust before he got drafted
DeBerg had a 20 year career and his closest season to Cam’s was in 1990. It was actually a pretty darned good year – 23 TDs and only 4 INTs with 3400 yards.
Unfortunately he went back to being DeBerg in 1991 so the Chiefs replaced him with Joe Montana.
You put all the blame on MC’s lack of catches on himself when part to blame is Smith. He was 1/13 on 3rd down and under a 50% completion percentage. He threw the ball to crabtree one time, and say what you want about him not creating “separation” but there were times in that game when QBs like Brees, manning (either one) or Brady would have gotten MC the ball. You say you like players who show heart then what do you have to say about MC’s blocking? He gives it his all on every run play or any situation in which he needs to block, that alone should give him more looks in the passing game. Whatever your beef is with crab its clear your set on your own way of thinking and nothing will change your mind. Even though all coaches and teammates say he’s an extremely hard worker and a great teammate, they must be lying.
Must say its nice to see jerry rice reaching out to Jenkins on Twitter, wanting to run the legendary “Hill”. Makes me wonder though, did he do the same with MC? I cannot recall.
Not that hill. JR was famous for running the “hills” in San Francisco. The streets.
Rice was trying to recruit Crabtree to Debartolo Sports Management leading up to the draft. I think Crabtree’s decision to go with Eugene Parker had some effect on their relationship. Rice was very complimentary of Crabs and said he had all the potential in the world when they participated in the pre-draft special for NFL Network. Crabs will be okay, it seems like he is maturing and I expect big things from him this season.
Seems to me I remember Rice hinting that he tried to reach out to Crabs but nothing really happened and then it was left at, “I’m here if you need me,” or something like that.
They don’t seem to cozy.
*too*
@Adam
Yeah. MC was offered the chance to work with the best ever before TC, and a sure HOF WR as a teammate. And turned both down until he HAD to join.
I don’t know what your major in college was, but that is like a computer studies student getting the chance to work with both Steve Jobs and Bill Gates in the same year and saying “Nahhh.”
Stupid is a simple way to put it.
Big P,
Crabtree just needs a better QB. You’ll see that this year when Smith gets benched. Then all the weapons we have will thrive.
He needs to build a rapport with the QB, no matter who it is 23. If he doesn’t (and let us say hypothetically that he is passed on both Manningham and Jenkins), then he stands a good chance of being benched. When you get down to it, both Smith and Crabtree are on their last leg because the excuses surrounding their time here is now null and void.
That being said, I believe that both will develop the rapport needed to succeed as a tandem and will write the next chapter in the history of Niner QBs and WRs.
Both MC and AS will play even better this year. Now move on…this subject is very old.
It’s the first time I’ve been part of this subject for a while now Hof. I’m tired of it myself.
I hope Jenkins reaches out to Jerry and spends alot of time with him picking his brain.
Oops, sorry Adam. the San Carlos Hill! My bad. Starting to forget my ancient Niners history. :P
i think MC’s work ethic and effort are fine. when i evaluate him i find he comes up short in the areas of hands, seperation and fragility. i think at his best he is a quality #2 receiver. the problem with that is the 9ers are paying him #1 money and going foreward he will be expecting more of the same. i do’nt believe he will be with the team after this next season. jenkins will more than fill his shoes [ no foot injury pun intended]
Crabs has good hands…
@adam rice did reach out to MC but MC was in the middle of his hold out and since then he has never had a healthy off season
How does that matter? Can’t 1 non-NFL player work out with an unsighned drafted player? Legally what is the difference between JR and guy down the street?
…JR probably has fans in jury box while guy dwn da street has none..
That’s because Crabs saw The Hill and immediately collapsed.
“Ow! My foot!”
msclemon – For real bro?
Sorry Crab – I couldn’t resist.
Good one Msclemon. :-)
Mike Silver.
Mark Fainaru-Wada.
Kevin Lynch.
Matt Maiocco.
Brian Murphy.
Eric Branch.
Is Phil Barber still with the PD? Assign a real reporter for the Niners beat, please!
In his seven-year career, Smith has 66 career starts and he has shown steady statistical improvement, especially since returning in 2009 after missing 25 games in 2007 and 2008 with shoulder injuries.
2005-2007
Attempts: 800
Completions: 435
Completion pct: 54.4
Yards: 4,679
Touchdowns: 19
Interceptions: 48 31
Passer rating: 63.5
W-L record as starter: 11-19
2009-2011
Attempts: 1,159
Completions: 702
Completion pct: 60.6
Yards: 7,864
Touchdowns: 49
Interceptions: 27
Passer rating: 85.2
W-L record as starter: 21-15
….great job of copying and pasting oneclaude…
Thks. The truth hurts. When you look at those stats you start to wonder why would anyone not believe in Alex….but then the hate takes over and u complain about the messenger…
You should at least give Maiocco the credit for writing what you are pasting. None of that is new information. For the last 3 years he has been serviceable, now with weapons it is time to take that final step.
Unfortunately the information is always new on this blog….where haters continuosly misrepresent Alex stats and the site blogger ignores the faux news in the name of site hits….
Dnt stress about MM getting credit, it normal to think most that come here have read the MM article…
Not really. It was linked in a comment yesterday.
..Makes no difference when linked .. ppl still say he has played 7 yrs….and sucked all through
Scroll up- ninermd say its 8yrs…
This is getting stupid.
1. oneniner, if you got the data from another article, you should provide the link, or a reference to it.
2. Jack, this is hardly a MM unique comment. Everybody has pretty much said it. Yet, you have many people here who love stats, but ignore this. As long as oneniner is not getting paid for this post, he really didn’t do anything that bad. It wasn’t right. But not bad either.
DS,
It came directly from a Maiocco blog post yesterday. All oneplagairist needs to do is credit the appropriate source instead of trying to pass it off as his own work.
As I said. Everybody has said it. I don’t read that and say “that is uniquely oneniner.”
No plagerism was meant.
Yeah I guess you are right. Was the tip off the fact that it was written in English, or that it took more than one brain cell to get the numbers?
….first time ever on the blog i was lazy to put words from another site in quotes ..(because i was on my BB)…..and this jackgoat wants to claim credit for what exactly – I have no idea
….can someone please onboard Jackgoat on the stuff that goes on the blog….its like talking to another generation about history……
what up oneniner…. how you doing my man… GO NINERS….
…am good my niner brother from Chi-town…..
And now the singletary and raye years count. Lol you smith lovers kill me. All this improvement and yet you love to
Leave out the other things like… 4th quarters, game ending int’s, the blowouts he piled some of these stats up with, the fact that there were 10 in the box every game to stop Gore, and his 3rd down efficiency. If this isn’t his “8th” year going in. Then I must have been in a coma for a year. He had continuity with raye. You morons love to bury that. Got benched after that beginning. See onelame posting these stats is like spraying Lysol on * hit. The smell comes back.
All of these stats say two things.
1 nobody else wanted him in FA, including the 49 ers.
2 he still isn’t locked up long term.
For my final thought. Not one of you “believers” said he was going to blowup this year. None of you want to put your a*ses on the line for him. You call me the hater. And yet I’m the only one who says he will crack top 7 this year. Hmmm y’all afraid he has reached his ceiling last year? Don’t have faith in the only reason you watch my beloved team? I know your playing it safe and racking up more excuses in your peas in case he fails again. Now who’s got more faith in the qb? Looks like I do. This smith hater over here.
Every year onelame would say your going to be eating crow… Every year he failed. I guess he’s smarter than a 3rd grader. Because he isn’t saying *hit this year. So how about it Smith lovers. How will he do this year? Might as well put it up. Because if he doesn’t reach top 7 like I predict. He’s gone. Let me hear it onelame, ds, Claude, ribico, and all of you other 6 smith stalkers. HOW WILL HE DO THIS SEASON???
…Grant has been doing you a favor by deleting my responses to you…
I am just glad nobody is taking you seriously……its crazy how you think you can now re-write history……
just look at the contradictions in your comments……
“Every year onelame would say your going to be eating crow… ”
” Not one of you “believers” said he was going to blowup this year”
…am not sure what you are smoking …..but why did you think I was feeding you crow…..
you dummy……your last couple of comments trying to gain credit for something you hated is just plain pathetic and stupid…..
so you have more faith in Alex now……so we must praise you…ha ha ha…what a loser you are!!!
…I have no doubt Jr punches not only crushed your puerto rican hero but did some damage to your mental state also…..
Football at this level is about winning. Last I checked AS was top 4 last year.
I have no idea what grading system you are using. Doubt I much care about it either. And if AS is 8th on your scale, you dump him, even though he is better than 3/4 of the starting QB’s and think the replacement will be better?
so you have more faith in Alex now……so we must praise you…ha ha ha…what a loser you are!!!
Yeah dummy. When a player improves like he did last year and for once shows some worth. Why wouldn’t I? You started on here when smith did. I’ve been a 49er fan for decades now. That’s why I go to games that’s why I get pissed when they stink. It’s called being a fan. Never once have I turned my back on this team, players that suck get boo’s until they prove they are worth cheering. That’s your lesson on team fanhood today youngster. Don’t get mad because I can keep it real and tell it like it is. And speaking of raider fans.. You sound like one. Blind and oblivious to players and your team sucking. Onelame that question wasn’t for you. We all know your pathetic answer. I was hoping you would say he’s going to suck this year, so you’ll continue the losing streak you have built. Maybe your comments were removed because you can’t handle the truth like an adult and don’t have anything else to say but 3 rd grade put downs over seas and over your computer. Please tell me when your next trip is out to the stick. I’d looove to meet you in person. Now take your medicine and go to bed son!
And ds… It’s not hard to put together a guess at how smith will look this year. You love using stats. And btw. What are you smoking saying he was 8th best last year? Add it up like the good folks on here that can’t stand you. You can say you don’t care about no one liking you on here, but your paragraphs that say nothing proves otherwise. I gave you a shot to see if you could chill out on the smith fan only train, but your quickly becoming the conductor. Ds do yourself a favor and stay off my comments. I don’t want to have to go back to smacking you again. There’s enough fans on here doing that. The only time you post after me is to defend onelame. That’s means your forcing me to smack a lady and a clown. Now how’s that going to look in front of kids??? Go about your own business ds.
MD,
I started seeing improvement in MC and AS last year. AS did post ok stats in 2009 and 2010 but they weren’t winning so in that case the stats were meaningless. My gut tells me the team is motivated knowing they were an OT away from the SB. I think the whole team will improve this year and I don’t think AS has to be top 7. I know you have stated you think AS will have an outstanding year and will be top 7. He should be top 10 with more weapons but this needs to play out. They overachieved as a team last year and this year it is expected that they win and reach the playoffs. Let’s relish in the thought and not get caught up in hyperbole in the meantime. All arrows up!!
Looks like everyone is getting along famously – as usual. :P
Good times.
This is *mild* compared to two years ago as you know. lol
Hoff. Sorry man. But he’s got to improve into top 7. This defense will more than likely not carry this team like they did last year. With all of these weapons he should be top 7. No question about it. 200 yards a game and bad 3rd down and redzone % won’t cut it this year. The FO knows this and do does every fan out there. Top 10 isn’t going to cut it Hoff. Don’t worry though. It’s top 7 all year bro. And a trip to the big game. Mark it down! Hell even bet on that.
>>Let me hear it onelame, ds, Claude, ribico, and all of you other 6 smith stalkers. HOW WILL HE DO THIS SEASON???
Though Grant and others say it’s a complete impossibility (as if last season was a total abberation), but it’s very likely that AS remains a statisically middling QB, the team not so hot on 3rd downs or red zone, and still end up in the SB. As winners.
MD, even if AS is not a top 7 or whatever you have him pegged in your fantasy numbers, would he deserve to remain the starter? I say yes.
MD, the difference between top 7 and top 10 is 20 yds per game. It is 250 to 270 based on 2011 stats. Or in a 16 game schedule, 800 to 1120. The key thing is winning. Not just hanging on but winning a few by two tds or more.
@md
You quoted/mis-read my post. I said
“And if AS is 8th on your scale,”
Yes. I am the person who always brings stats into the conversation. How good he QB rating was against this team and such. Do you even read my posts, or just reply willy-nilly?
Might want to ask for Grant to delete your post at 9:09. It sounds really stupid now.
@Adam
“Looks like everyone is getting along famously – as usual. ”
You know that is why you come onto this blog now.
lol
md
You keep saying “Top 7″, but you have never said in what?
AS was top 7 in wins/comeback wins last season. You haven’t defined your parameters at all. Kinda need to do that before you go psycho on us all.
Smith was a top 10 QB last year based on rating. If he can get his TD’s up, and increase the 3rd down conversions we should be ok. I think everyone can agree he now has the most weapons of his career, and that coupled with the best coaching staff he has played for should help get there.
As Hofer likes to say arrows up.
“This is *mild* compared to two years ago as you know.”
Just seems silly. Although it’s the dead season so… we’re all getting antsy for the season to get rolling I guess.
More name calling! :P
Meh… still lame. :P
Hoff you know I posted up the stats I think smith will reach this year. Not just qb rating. Which means nothing. Smith didn’t throw as much because harbaugh had the training wheels on. I’m talking yards, td’s, comp %, qbr, redzone td’s, 3rd down, all of the above. Numbers comparable to Rodgers Manning’s, brees, and Brady. Slightly above Romo. You guys want to use the qbr, that’s fine, but you know it doesn’t tell the whole story. If you look at qbr you will see smiths name up there, after that…. Nothing. By him hitting top 7 you will see his name at the top on MOST of those categories. Basically you can officially call him a pro bowler and elite. We clear now everyone?
I would like to see some predictions for fun up on here. Especially the smith fans.. Except onelame. That guy had been wrong for years now. He’s bound to be right once. Let’s see it fans.
MD, even if AS is not a top 7 or whatever you have him pegged in your fantasy numbers, would he deserve to remain the starter? I say yes….. Ribico
If he doesn’t improve on last year. There is no way he is the qb after next season. There is a reason why there are 4 qb on this roster and manning could have been. Keep it real. If smith doesn’t get better than middle of the pack starts and stats. He’s gone and insert CK or JJ and who knows brees isn’t happy right now. Just sayin
MD, are you saying the 9ers would pull a Superbowl winning QB? That’s pretty gutsy, we know how that has worked out for teams in the past.
One could argue that Smith could be pulled during the regular season. But if the team is winning – that is, they are not *losing* due directly to Smith’s play – would they do that? I really doubt it, no matter who’s in the wings.
Ribico… If smith isn’t playing at an elite level next seaon. We ain’t winning no Super Bowl. We’re not surprising anyone this year and those timely turnovers aren’t going to happen again. We need an elite smith to win anything. Imo
MD, so you are in the Grant camp that last season’s success cannot be repeated using the same methods – stingy opportunistic defense, ball control offense, league-best ST, winning the turnover battle on both sides of the ball. I disagree. We’ll see.
From a historical and statistical standpoint, getting another +28 turnover differential is exceedingly unlikely. That just does not happen very often, even for excellent teams. Our defense will play well, but a differential more in the 10-15 range is far more likely. Statisticians call it “regression to the mean”. It stands to reason, then, that with fewer short fields, the offense will have to carry more of the weight of scoring and maintaining field position. We do not need to be Air Coryell here, but we will likely need to sustain more drives down the field than our 2011 incarnation did.
So, let me get this right.
The defense and ST don’t have to play as well as they did last year. They don’t have to create the TO’s they did. And they are better than AS.
But AS has to make up for that drop-off in production from the other 2/3 of the team. If he does not, then we dump him. Not the other 2/3 of the team.
So, we now have a built in protection system in place for everybody but AS. We can’t expect the other players to play like last year, but we MUST expect AS to make up for it.
Why not expect the other players to have to be as good as they were last year, in addition to being better? All of them. AS included. So if Justin Smith or PW are not as good, we give them a pass, and don’t grade them poorly, but if AS does not improve we blame him for it.
We now have a new term. Instead of “Alexexcuces” we have “Defensexcuces”. I will continue to bring up Alexexcuses and you guys will continue to bring up Defensexcuces and that is how it will go.
Good to know. Now that we have cleared that up, is there anything else we can discuss without bringing up either -excuses?
Really don’t mind if you sit this one out.
My words but a whisper — your deafness a SHOUT.
I may make you feel but I can’t make you think.
md brought me into it. You don’t like it. Take it up with him.
@DS:
I think what Grumpy is saying is that certain aspects of turnovers are unpredictable and thus not likely repeatable. It is highly unlikely that the 49ers duplicate (or come close to) last year’s +28 turnover margin, but not because of the defense won;t be as good as it was last year. It has nothing to do with the defense’s performance, but more to do with “luck,” if you will.
Stat-based websites like Football Outsiders can explain it much better than I can, but as I understand it, the issue primarily revolves around fumbles, or rather, fumble recoveries. Footballs are oddly-shaped and bounce in funny ways. In 2011, those bounces tended to go in the 49ers favor. One cannot predict with any confidence that the 49ers will recover forced fumbles in 2012 at the rate they recovered them in 2011. In fact, the odds are high that they will not. The team may still force fumbles at the same rate, but it should not expect to recover them at the same rate.
As for interceptions, a quick glance at the 2012 schedule suggests that the 49ers will be facing better QBs and better passing offenses than they did in 2011. Even with the defense playing at the same high level it played at in 2011, it is unlikely to record as many interceptions in 2012.
So again, the issue is one of statistical likelihood and not one of on-field performance.
+1 for Claude.
@claude
Here is something else that is statistically proven. You get a lot of defenders near the ball, something good will happen for you.
That Philly game. JS knocked the ball out of the WR’s hands. It was near the sideline rolling out of bounds. If not for DG and several other near by Niners, that ball goes out of bounds. Philly ball.
Go back to 2010. PW in one game knocks the ball out of the offensive players hands 2 times in the same game near the sidelines. No other Niner defenders near the ball, it rolls out of bounds. No TO. Not coincidentally, we lost that game.
Same situation. Different result because of 1 thing. Get lots of people near the ball and good things happen to you. Remember the last KW game for AZ he played in Candlestick? In that game, our defense was all over everybody who had the ball. We got like 7 TO’s that night. Wasn’t luck. That was skill/coaching.
It isn’t luck. I don’t recall that many TO’s getting caused by the offensive player just dropping it last year. We made those TO’s happen.
Lots of defenders near the ball, and statistically you will get good things (TO’s). Few defenders near the ball, and you won’t get TO’s. That is coaching and effort. Two things that can be controlled.
As for the QB issue, we played two of the top 3 QB’s in the NFC in the playoffs. We intercepted Brees 2 times. We should have intercepted EM two times if not for DG knocking our own guys down. That would be 4 Int’s in two games against top QB’s.
Lesson: It does not matter who we play. Only how we play. We play like we can, we will get TO’s. We suck it up and don’t bring lots of defenders at the ball carrier and knock our own guys out of getting Int’s we will not be good.
@DS:
I wish what you are saying about fumble rtecoveries was true, but it’s not.
From http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/fo-basics-seven-years-fo-research
Recovery of a fumble, despite being the product of hard work, is almost entirely random.
Stripping the ball is a skill. Holding onto the ball is a skill. Pouncing on the ball as it is bouncing all over the place is not a skill. There is no correlation whatsoever between the percentage of fumbles recovered by a team in one year and the percentage they recover in the next year. The odds of recovery are based solely on the type of play involved, not the teams or any of their players.
Fans like to insist that specific coaches can teach their teams to recover more fumbles by swarming to the ball. Chicago’s Lovie Smith, in particular, is supposed to have this ability. However, since Smith took over the Bears, their rate of fumble recovery on defense went from a league-best 76 percent to a league-worst 33 percent in 2005, then back to 67 percent in 2006. Last year, they recovered 57 percent of fumbles, close to the league average.
Fumble recovery is equally erratic on offense. In 2008, the Bears fumbled 12 times on offense and recovered only three of them. In 2009, the Bears fumbled 18 times on offense, but recovered 13 of them.
Fumble recovery is a major reason why the general public overestimates or underestimates certain teams. Fumbles are huge, turning-point plays that dramatically impact wins and losses in the past, while fumble recovery percentage says absolutely nothing about a team’s chances of winning games in the future.
*about fumble recoveries
@Claude
I don’t see any issue with what you found and what I wrote at all.
I said you put a lot of defenders near the ball carrier, and good things will happen. Nothing in your quote says that having lots of defenders near the football does not increase you chances of causing/recovering fumbles at all.
As long as the Niner D gets lots of people near the guy with the ball, we will get a lot of TO’s. Maybe not as many. But we will get a lot. If our D does not get lots of players near the ball carrier, we will not get a lot of TO’s (fumbles).
Your quote has to do with fumble recoveries. Not how many players on your team were around the ball. That is what I am talking about.
And I totally agree with the last bit about fumbles being major events. Look at nothing but TO’s in an NFL game, and you will be able to guess the winner well over 1/2 the time. That includes those TO’s at the end of the half (hail mary type passes) or deep passes which get Int on 3rd down which people always say “It in effect is equal to a punt”. Which is the reason why I don’t remotely care about how many yards AS throws for in a game. Don’t throw the Int/fumble it, and we automatically have a better than 50% chance of winning that game if our own defense can get a TO of their own. We can suck in every other stat and still win the game if we have the TO battle won. If we can win by +2, it is almost a sure bet to win the game. Nothing else matters.
@DS:
This part says that having lots of defenders near the football does not increase a team’s chances of causing/recovering fumbles:
Fans like to insist that specific coaches can teach their teams to recover more fumbles by swarming to the ball. Chicago’s Lovie Smith, in particular, is supposed to have this ability. However, since Smith took over the Bears, their rate of fumble recovery on defense went from a league-best 76 percent to a league-worst 33 percent in 2005, then back to 67 percent in 2006. Last year, they recovered 57 percent of fumbles, close to the league average.
Ds. Let me give you some help in your never ending journey to defend and excuse smith. 1st off nobody said the defense wasn’t going to be good. I’m saying the JS knockdown, and NB Vick tackle and TG returns… Aren’t going to happen again. Those defensive and st plays saved games. If our offense is putting up more points and our defense plays solid there won’t have to be late game heroics in most games. Leave it to you to take the truth and stretch it into an Alex smith cover up. Your crazy if you think the defense will have that kind of year again. They will be very good still. Imagine if you can, the offense being dominate for once. With this defense this team will be unstoppable. Harbaugh sees this and so do I. As far as smith carrying some slack… That would be nice for once. The def and st were the main reason they went as far as they did. Period! The FO knows it, the fans know it, the whole damn football world knows it. Smith got everything you wanted. Wr’s now, same OC, a good line, a good head coach. If the smith fails this season his days are over. You can sit here and believe and make excuses and blame every other player, but it won’t mean a thing. This is what you smith fans wanted. You wanted everything perfect for smith to succeed. Now you got it. The defense and running game and st have proved themselves for a coue of years now. It’s time for the most important piece to do the same.
So quit with the turning it into poor smith talk. You have zero reason to bring up the defense and st. They proved themselves!!
Claude
Without seeing the Bears games, I can’t really say that the Bears who got all those TO’s in one year looked the same swarming wise as the Bears team which swamed and didn’t get those TO’s.
I do know that in 2010, our Niners didn’t swarm like they did last year. And last year we got a lot of fumble recoveries.
I also know that the players have to be put in the correct formation from the get go (play call) to get the chance to swarm, and that the players need to hustle every time to swarm (on the players themselves). Maybe next years team won’t swarm like they did last year. If they don’t we won’t be as good. I think we will, and we will be just as good.
md
“Your crazy if you think the defense will have that kind of year again. They will be very good still. Imagine if you can, the offense being dominate for once. With this defense this team will be unstoppable. ”
Read your own words for a bit and tell me if there is a huge contradticton there.
There is. How can we have “this defense” if the defense does not play like they did? By defintion, that is not “our defense”, but a newer, less effective one. One which has to be held to the same standards as AS if not higher. After all, they are our Pro Bowlers. You must expect more from them.
And please. Haven’t you read any of my offense comments? With VD/Jenkins/Moss/Hunter/new RB from Oregon (forgot his name right now) I’ve asked and posed the question how can anybody stop us? That would be our base offense.
I’ve then gone on to discuss how good our D will be and how they won’t drop off in their play that much, and I told Grant that I look foward to playing Tom Brady and the Pats.
Where have you been all this time? I have been talking up the offense and the defense the ENTIRE off-season!
>>I’m saying the JS knockdown, and NB Vick tackle and TG returns… Aren’t going to happen again. Those defensive and st plays saved games.
Yes, they will be replaced by someone noticing that football lying on the ground in the Dallas game. Or by a corner not getting creamed by a safety when he was in position to make a critical int as in the NFCC. Or maybe the secondary gets Fitzgerald wrapped up in a sure tackles instead of going for the big hit/int. The Defense played great last season, but they weren’t perfect. They made a lot of plays, but missed some as well – they left a lot of potential game changing plays on the field.
Honestly, I don’t see why they can’t be as dominating as they were last season.
http://www.mercurynews.com/monte-poole/ci_20575017/monte-poole-49ers-qb-alex-smith-already-is
undercenter says:
May 8, 2012 at 5:34 pm
AES
“I took it as funny, not personal. I use to do lots of scuba diving so that name kind of applies also.”
Thanks for the understanding ‘undercenter.’ A definite oversight on my part.
I hate to admit it, but I was a raiders fan until they moved to L.A.
I could never be a raiders fan again, and frankly, I put them in the same mix with the c-boys and the c-hawks.
….see what i mean……once you were a raider fan then you flip flopped to a 49er fan…….damn dude…you are the gift that keeps giving…..
AES
I am with you, on that Raider thing. I was a huge Niner fan and Raider fan as a boy growing up. When the Raiders moved to the hated LA area my allegiance to the Raiders was gone and never have I once rooted for them since. As a bay area fan I hate all teams in LA area period. The Rams, Lakers, the Dodgers, the Angels, and team in that area were/are arch rivials. Any team to include any team that moves to LA I have an automatic dislike for. Its just in my genes. I thought all bay area fans were the same in that regards. I am with you on the Seahawks and Cowboys I just dont like, or will ever like those teams.
I was never a Raider fan – I was thrilled when we clobbered them in 1970, winning the division in the process – but I did not hate them until they went to LA and acquired the thug culture connection.
Good article Grant. I think the Bears will be better than what you think. Had it not been for Cutler’s season ending early, it would have been the Bears and not the Lions in the playoffs. I also think Houston should be ranked higher as well because they have a very balanced team when healthy. And I know the Giants are the defending champs, but given their recent history I’d say they should be in the 6-10 range. Good chance that have another four years of futility despite the talent on that team. I also believe the Titans will be better this year, but it hinges on which CJ shows up: the pre-contract version or the post-contract version.
DS- Get à job “blog bum”
Get off your butt & make à contribution to society or help someone in need. 90% of your existence is in here. That’s sad.
And 100% of your comments are insightful football related comments.
I’ll give you some help. You desperately need it. Will that count?
Thank you for your comments. I truly take them into account. And your last post “L” appeared just below this post. Do you consider yourself to be a “Loser”? No wonder you have such a poor self image of yourself and bring such insight to me.
Thank you.
…Crab you do know people can post through their phones, ipad…etc…….its sad that you don’t think people can have a productive life and still hang out on a social network…..
Yeah the only 3 friends you have in life. I want to place a bet on who is more pale. Ds or onelame. How many cyber girlfriends do you have onelame? Bet your dating models all over the world. Ha ha haaaaa
…Crab you do know people can post through their phones, ipad…etc…….its sad that you don’t think people can have a productive life and still hang out on a social network…..
…think big dude……its 2012…..and DS is an alien, its not like you have any clues about alien life……
L
oneniner says:
May 9, 2012 at 6:27 am
….see what i mean……once you were a raider fan then you flip flopped to a 49er fan…….damn dude…you are the gift that keeps giving…..
That’s the problem with you ‘oneAlex.’ You never get the story straight before opening your pie-hole. When did I ever say that I was NOT a 49er fan?
Over the couple of weeks you have tried to claim a semblence of credibility by posting ‘what is a smither?’ You were kidding with that one right?
Then you try to take credit for someone elses (MM) numbers on Smith. This is especially sad, after posting that I am not original with my content. Hahahaha! Son, you will never get your cred back around here. Just embrace your true character ‘oneAlex’ ,’ you are the ‘town clown’ around here.
No matter how many times your cohort (DS) tries to clean up behind you, you will always be this blogs ‘biggest clown’ son. Kinda feel sorry for you. Nahhhh, don’t feel anything towards you really.
Oh, and thanks for religeously reading my posts word for word. Always good to know I have faithfull followers son.
@AES
In case you haven’t noticed, I’ve gone out of my way to distinguish myself from others here.
I come to my own conclusions. Agree or not, I do. There is not a single regular here I have not disagreed with at some point. Like most, there are those who I often agree with. But I’m not a cohort of anybody.
If I was, why would I discuss with Tim and have fun with it? Many of those who I commonly agree with don’t do so. I come to my own thoughts/conclusions.
Thank you.
DS, in case YOU haven’t noticed, YOU CAN’T QUIT ‘ONEALEX’ if you tried!
I actually DON’T think ABOUT anybody FROM this blog WHEN they ARE not POSTING.
And I THOUGHT you WERE not DOING any NAMECALLING? His NAME is ONENINER.
GEE, capping EVERY other WORD is KINDA fun. Thanks FOR the IDEA.
…wow….love the energy I am bringing out in you…..
also love how u have upgraded to name calling
ok….so are you saying while you were supporting the raiders you were also supporting the niners…….if yes that means you were flopping back and forth ….if no that means you flipped after the raiders left….
..that guilt is killing you……..word of advice…be who you are even if you are flip flopper!!!!
‘oneAlex’ I suppose in your “Alex World” there is no room for rooting for anything else.
Back in the 6o-70′ I supoorted both teams. If you had the comprehension of a 3rd grader you would have noticed that I stated that now the raiders are in the same mix as the -c-boys and the c-hawks, both hated opponents.
C’mon son, take your ‘bad energy’ somewhere else, unless you’re looking to get ‘banned’ again. I guess getting banned is your way of saying you have some ‘street cred.’
OBTW, I don’t need to call names to get my point across. Unfortunately, what people have called you around here fits you well.
I’ll get back to you during the season if you idol falls apart.
And he’s taking credit for a guy that booted him before off this blog. He loves the punishment. And ds loves it too. Why else would anyone back this joke. Remember this is the guy who came on here on Christmas day talking *hit to people on here. That should tell you everything about this pathetic waste. He can fool the bandwagon fans, but the OG’s on here know what he’s about. It’s a matter of time before he’s booted off here again. Tic toc tic toc
….@Grant….not that i really care, but why do you keep deleting my response to the ninermd?…..
Kinda like what AES wrote earlier…… “The only thing more pathetic then ‘ninermd’ act, is your need to defend him Grant. This person continues to spew ‘messes’ every time he opens his mouth, and you continue to go behind him to try to mop up.
You’re better then this.”……
I actually don’t think you are better…but its fun using somebody else words to make my point….
Dude what are you right About? You have no substance in your rants. Grant doesn’t need to defend me. Your a one track minded fan. All I have to do is bring up facts like smith was garbage in years past and improved last year, and needs to improve some more this year. Maybe he is defending you from yourself. Your on a 7 year roll of being wrong. As far as cred. Yours has been gone for years. With your horrible predictions, stalker mentality, whining, and useless rants. And for disappearing when smith stunk. Nobody respects someone that can’t face the music. Your whodini on this blog. Trust me your a legend in your own mind and you couldn’t “smack” your food if it was fed to you. Trust me he’s protecting you.
continuing the thread regarding changing your team affiliation. i wonder how many out there would have remained 49er fans if 2 yrs ago the hated york family had moved the 49ers out of the area or even worse had moved them to L.A.
@old coach
Don’t you see? The grownups here are bickering. Can’t discuss anything football related until that is done.
: – )
And if the Yorks had done that, I would not be a Niner fan. Since it didn’t happen, it doesn’t much matter.
@ Old Coach
There are a number of people on this site who could claim it wouldn’t make a difference to them; all the out-of-State and international fans overcome inconvenience to stay faithful. Me? I’m NorCal local yokel and I might have trouble supporting a team that left. An Ex is, well, an Ex.
The old Raider fans deserved better than Al bolting their roots city, but can we say Warriors (Philly)? Giants (NY)? It happens. Stay tuned in Minnesota.
Whitner says that this season’s D will play faster than last season’s!
http://www.49ers.com/news-and-events/article-2/Whitner-Has-Grip-on-49ers-Defense/9f5f8ad9-557d-4ac2-a60a-0031d60bd371
@mood
As long as we don’t knock our own players out of the game, I am fine with it.
Yeah, those two near-interceptions in the NFC Championship game comes to mind. Maybe this time around they will know have all the schemes ironed out so that the DB’s won’t try to violate one of the basic principle of physics: two masses cannot occupy the same space at the same time!
Anyway. I’ll probably be reviewing more of Niners’ defensive plays in slo-mo.
I’m bookmarking this posting. Grant has made so many outrageous “forecasts” in one post that it will deserve a re-visit in the middle of the season for ammo :)
Bloggers (such as Grant) and journalists (such as Lowell) know the first rule is never admit mistakes. After all, its just opinions. How can “opinions” be wrong?
The Great Fleener Meltdown is already a classic.
Interesting insights on Crabtree from MM.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/football-san-francisco-niners/niners-talk/Rating-Crabtree-through-three-seasons?blockID=704914&feedID=5936
Crabs will be fine. He finally has complimentary receivers on the other side and should perform very well this year.
From the article
“Some combination of those players should prevent the opposition from regularly double-covering Crabtree, so he should benefit.”
When did the Saints/NY double MC? How often has this happened the last 3 years (more importantly last year)? Because the announcers talked a lot about defenses doubling VD all last year. And the Giants didn’t feel the need to even play it safe and double MC in addition to VD knowing that the Niners pretty much were down to practice squad players in the title game.
“When did the Saints/NY double MC?”
Maybe this is another instance where being at the game and having the ability to see the entire field, and not just what is on your box tells more of the story.
And on those 2 TD’s to Davis in the championship game he beat single coverage, not double.
Jack Hammer,
You are absolutely correct. Thank you for not rewriting history to make a better story.
The first was single. The second one tried to be double. VD just outran it. And I trust HOF QB over MM. And why was this not known till now? Plenty of other equally qualified experts said the opposite.
Do you really think the Giants would be stupid to not double VD that 2nd time? I don’t.
DS, Even HOF QB calls it man coverage. Have a listen.
I guess they were that stupid.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAr4yGjMYr0&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Here is a better view taken from a better angle. In this one you can see the safety come up to play man on Davis and switch responsibilties with the corner who now has the deep 1/2 zone. He gets taken too far inside by the receivers post route and can’t get back to make the play.
Single coverage with 2 deep safeties, but don’t take my word. Listen to the HOF QB : )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpWvtTr0I-g&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Ok Jack.
But wasn’t the 2nd TD pass kinda deep? And isn’t the purpose of having those 2 deep safeties to help the DB if any Niner player goes deep to basically help out? If one does, then why don’t you effectively call that double coverage?
Doesn’t really matter in the scheme of things. VD beat the guy who had him and the safety didn’t do much. AS threw a perfect pass and VD caught it. Wish it could have happened one more time. Oh well.
DS, “And I trust HOF QB…”, and he called it man coverage.
Like I said, it doesn’t really matter. But way to go to push the argument when there was nothing to push. It is a pattern of yours Jack.
And you didn’t really answer my question either. Is the safety just supposed to sit there and not go on over to help? If he goes on over to help and there are 2 guys on VD, isn’t that pretty much 2 covered?
You want to pass yourself off as some great DC mind on this blog. It isn’t that hard of a question to answer I would think for somebody as knowledgeable as you.
DS, “But wasn’t the 2nd TD pass kinda deep? And isn’t the purpose of having those 2 deep safeties to help the DB if any Niner player goes deep to basically help out? If one does, then why don’t you effectively call that double coverage?”
I did fail to answer your question so here it goes. Teams will play with 1 or 2 safties deep on almost every play. It is very rare that a team will play 0 coverage unless they are either blitzing (Saints in WC game) or are playing goal line D.
If they were trying to double Davis in that situation the man who had deep responsibility never would have turned his back to him as he did. His primary focus would have been to stay over the top of Davis. On the play in question, Davis is singled up on 21, so 23 is playing deep responsibility and carrying the WR running the post through the zone with his eyes on the WR and QB, never looking at Davis. He does not turn to make a play on the ball until he sees the QB begin to deliver the ball.
I hope this makes sense, but basically, if you want to consider having safeties playing deep as double coverage than there is double coverage on 95% of all pass plays in a football game at all levels.
Thanks for the answer Jack.
Big P – Right on bro!
Crab15,
Plenty to be excited about this year bro!
This is kind of a funny article (or maybe amusing is the better term): http://blogs.mercurynews.com/49ers/2012/05/08/does-offensive-line-merit-20th-ranking-in-nfl/
Inman is quoting Rotoworld (a fantasy football outfit.) Really?
It’s very easy to look up stats on the protection aspect of the O-line. And those stats are NOT good. It doesn’t require “rotoworld” or whatever it’s called – even though this fantasy nerd thing is correct.
Inman needs to do his homework. Top 10? Maybe with run blocking added in we do better than low 20s but… it’s not top 10. Staley is a good dude and deserved the Pro Bowl but we’re still not top 10.
With regard to pass protection our line has been spotty (at best) since the end of Young’s career.
The line looked better as we went along last year, let’s hope it continues to keep making progress like the rest of the offense! :)
Letting Rachal walk is a big plus so maybe that helps.
The I-line gelled nicely as the season went on. This year they will be one of the best in football. Another year with this system. Top notch. You watch.
I think they will be better, too.
They should not only be better, they should dominate considering you have 3 1st round picks, a superbowl winning centre and another year back in the same system. This by far should be the best position group on the entire team.
I’m a bit concerned about Goodie, he’s getting up there a bit and read something the other day that out of all the linemen he gave up the most sacks.
May not be a big deal if they move some pieces around, one of the new kids sticks or they bring Beeler up or whatever.
Still makes me a bit concerned but overall, I agree the line slowly started looking more solid after the Baltimore game. Hopefully they improve! I’m all for it! :)
Adam, I think Goodwin struggled the most because it was an entire new offense for him (not an Alexecuse) and as as we all know, the centre position is the most demanding interms of alignment, assignments and blitz pick up.
He got better as the year went on just like everyone else. With a good stable of RB’s they should be one of the best in the NFL, that’s my expectation considering how high of draft picks we have used.
crabtree is what he is a quality #2 receiver. he needs to improve his hands and a full camp and the kind of extra work VD does after practice should take care of that. i dont think he will be around after his first contract runs out. he wont get #1 money from the 49ers and he and his agent will expect it. a.j. jenkins will more than replace crabtree. as far as this yr i’m cheering hard for MC
He can be a number one receiver. He is very talented and has been better every season while playing in crap offenses. V.D. should be a 1,000 yard, 10+ TD TE every year but he isn’t. It’s not his fault.
I don’t think it really matters whether you want to classify Crabtree as a #1 or 2. As was stated in the article Crabtree had a good regular season, but failed in the postseason.
He has the skills to do better, and this is his first offseason healthy and able to participate. Just like Alex and the rest of the offense, I am sure he will benefit from working with the very good staff that Harbaugh has assembled and will be much improved in 2012. Hopefully he will have the chance to redeem himself this post season.
to be a #2 you have to be very good to be a #1 you have to be near great. crabtree a has very good speed not great. he has good hands not great. he has good size not great and he has serious durability issues. i do’nt believe he will ever be a #1 receiver but he is a quality #2 and thats not a bad thing
Like I said Old Coach, who cares? It is irrelevant if he is a #1 or #2. He just needs to continue improving and help the team get back to the playoffs.
You’re absolutely right Jack. In today’s game their are few great WRs – teams need a stable of good WRs that can compliment each other and create matchup problems for a defense. Last year the 49ers didn’t have this – they had Davis and Crabtree, and then a bunch of backups. Hopefully this season things will be different.
The pecking order of receivers is increasingly less important. It’s more about schemes and mismatches. Featuring of a specific receiver depends on the opponent. This article elaborates on this point.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/n-f-l-evolution-good-isnt-good-enough-for-quarterbacks/
That’s a really good article. Benoit’s analysis of the QB and WR positions in the modern NFL is spot on.
@Mood
Good point…as our WR’s become better as a group, it will come down to the matchups… and we CAN match up now!
@Scooter
It’s going to be interesting to see just how Harbaugh creates mismatches with the WR’s that we now have…’gonna’ be some strange TE formations and ‘motions’ to be aware of…GO NINERS!!
Big Ben talking about Niners going after his ankle.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/football-san-francisco-niners/niners-talk/Roethlisberger-suspects-49ers-targeted-h?blockID=705078&feedID=5936
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/58434/on-big-bens-suggestion-49ers-targeted-him
Sour grapes. I’m playing the worlds smallest violin for Rapistberger right now.
***BREAKING NEWS: Another former Harbaugh QB joins the 49ers***
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/05/sac-states-fleming-andrew-iupati-to-try-out-for-49ers.html
AHHHHHHHHH!!! Having 2 Iupati’s on the squad would be freekin’ SICK!!! HAHA!!! I wonder if he’s any good?!? Thats funny!!
@Jack,
Thanks, that was an interesting article
The Niners do these guys a big solid. Bethel-Thompson went on to sign with the Vikes, I think. Nice to give these guys a little bit of exposure and a foot in the door, so to speak.
Yeah, Guap, no kidding! Two Iupatis! Interesting.
It may be to early to determine how any of our WR’ will do. At the moment Crabtree is our #1 WR, period. Just like Alex Smith, until proven otherwise, he deserves to be on the field.
Sure, Crabtree will need to improve his pass catching ability, but I believe this is an area of bad concentration vs. bad hands. Crabtree made the tough inaccurate catches while dropping easy passes, so I know he can catch.
He will never be a ‘speedburner’ but he doesn’t need to be in the WCO. Crabtree will need to improve his route running as well. Alex’ strength is not necessarily throwing WR’ open, but Crabtree should at least keep his end of the bargin running crisp routes. I like MC, but if can’t secure his job in training camp he does not deserve it, plain and simple. Not attached to any player, I want the best players on the field no matter what their draft of FA status may be. Right now, as of this moment, MC is our best WR.
I think better route running and technique will be key to whether Crabtree builds on last year’s performance.
He also needs to get in shape and drop 15 pounds like Rice said he should, you probably could heed the same advice Nicky!
I agree with Prime. Drop some weight gain quickness and less pressure on feet. Not a bad idea, as long as he doesn’t loose strength.
Crabs’ main thing to me is for him to stay healthy. If his foot is good to go 100% then everything else should fall in to place. If he can break some tackles and get even a little more YAC, he’s good to go.
I’m not sure if AJ’s instant friendship with Rice is a bad thing for Crabs but it sure seems to me that Crabs should have swallowed his pride (or taken care of whatever was wrong) here and gone out and learned some stuff from the best player ever. The offer was on the table.
If nothing else, it would have made the fans warm up to him a little more.
I think Crabtree’s “poor” hands (i.e., drops) come from trying to secure the ball too quickly. He’s so quick going from catching to securing the ball that sometimes he appears as if he is in the process of securing the ball before he’s caught it, and this is usually where his drops come from. As AES said, concentration issue.
Crabtree’s route running isn’t that bad when he runs the right route. His problem appears to be mental lapses that lead to running incorrect routes. He needs to sort this out.
AES,
We as San Francisco 49er fans should all feel that way. We should want the best player at every position to be on the field. That’s at any position, including QB. Let the best players play.
23J – What’s up bro?
Hey I’ve been busy the last 6 weeks with a home remodel but I’ve been reading alot of posts. I will soon be back on track bro, talking some Niner football with you, Hofe & some of the long-time bloggers and awesome newcomers! There’s so many good bloggers in here that it’s ok to keep silent for a while and just enjoy reading the informative posts.
Except for that DS chic. She is off her rocker, just like 49erGirl said she was!
49erGirl was spot on about DS/90%!
Although we missed out on Manning the fact that Harbaugh went after him reassured me. Harbaugh will put the best QB on the field, not the best caddy.
Well, I sure got into your every waking thoughts now Crab15.
Must have hit on something that is true about your stud man. If not, you wouldn’t be so pissed off.
DS94everXev says:
May 9, 2012 at 9:26 am
“I actually DON’T think ABOUT anybody FROM this blog WHEN they ARE not POSTING.”
I guess you are qualified to make such a statement DS, since you live on this blog 24-7.
About the name calling. Do you really think ‘oneAlex’ cares what people call him? Anyone calling him a name is probably doing him a favor, since this is likely the only attention he get’s. You know what they, “bad publicity is better than no publicity.”
Looks like the king flip flopper is still flapping his useless gums/comments.
Another ‘cheap shot’ huh prime?
You cyber sissy’ make me laugh!
OBTW, step off dude, you’re not in ‘oneniners’ league… at least he’s consistent in one thing, stirring it up (lol).
AES
Not that you’ve noticed, but Jack has taken over that role. And that is quite the cheap shot. To take a line from you, You are better than that. You are? Aren’t you?
DS94everXev says:
May 9, 2012 at 9:43 pm
AES
“Not that you’ve noticed, but Jack has taken over that role. And that is quite the cheap shot. To take a line from you, You are better than that. You are? Aren’t you?”
No DS, that fact that you choose to clean-up every ‘mess’ that ‘oneAlex’ spews definitely quantifies my question to you; “you’re better then that.” But then again, maybe my expectations of you were too high. My bad.
AES – I’ve alway’s been a fan of yours bro, 49erGirl was 100% correct about DS/90%, she is mentally unstable.
You do know this is a football blog, right?
TY for the props Crabs :-).
*say*
Jack:
On Chronicle live tonight Matt M. said Crabs was often double covered ,especially in the playoffs and Alex wouldnt chance throwing into double coverage. He also said the addition of the new wr’s will help Crabs not get double covered as often and it should help him have an even better year !
…And I too think Crabs is a very good # 2 receiver.
NFL defenses 101 Tim, double the teams best wideout, and take your chances with everyone else. Well the only other threat was Vernon and he had an okay year, would have been better if he didn’t have to stay in and block for the first 10 games because our oline played terrible up until then. Throw on top of that we had no Morgan and no outside threat and it all comes back to what a great winning QB Alex Smith was under all those factors.
Yeah Tim. He said the same thing in the article I linked earlier today.
Tim – MM knows a little about the 49ers lol, I wish the Crabtree haters would just be 49er fans and stop the bashing!
It’s so obvious why their doing it.
@Prime Time/Oneniner
“what a great winning QB Alex Smith was under all those factors”
In the words of Bay, quite a man crush you’ve got there. Did you forget that most of those games were won by the defense, special teams, field position, and ball control?
Crab15:
Yes,it is VERY obvious why they feel they need to make Crabtree the bad guy …VERY obvious.
But having said that,I don’t believe Crabs is a true #1 stud receiver.But I think he is a very,very good #2 and if you have 2 receivers better than him on the team he would be a fantastic #3 ! IMHO he helped the QB look good a huge amount of times more than he made the QB look bad. Dropped some and maybe ran a few poor routes,but caught a huge number of poorly thrown balls and took many hard hits and held on when balls were throw way high and behind him etc. He played well and I suspect will play even better with all the weapons around him now and single coverage most of the time and with what I expect to be better QBing.
If you have the Big10 Network, you can check out AJ Jenkins and Illinois on a replay of their 2010 game vs Michigan at 7:30 tonight.
Prime:
LOL , nice try.
i think crabtree hears footsteps and they are’nt D backs he hears coming its a.j. jenkins. i think jenkins is going to be the sleeper of the draft. he possess all the skills that are slightly deficient in crabtree’s game hands, speed and durability. it wont happen right away but i believe jenkins is the #1 receiver we’ve been looking for since T.O. left
@old coach:
i believe jenkins is the #1 receiver we’ve been looking for since T.O. left
From your mouth to God’s ears.
Or whatever the online comment-posting equivalent is.
I believe you are right. He could become amazing — extending drives or snagging the long ball.
He’s not tall, though, and he has to get stronger.
If your prediction of Jenkins being as good as JT is correct, we won’t be stopped. And MC knows his rookie “pass” is over with now. Don’t need to be a college grad to know that when a team picks up 2 WR’s in FA, spends a 1st on a WR and signs several more undrafted FA WR’s that you need to show up at camp now.
Same could be said for Alex Smith. No more 1st over all draft pick “pass”. It’s show me time for AS. Either he shows major improvement or the Niners show him the door.
If the Niners had spent a 1st round pick on a QB, yes. They did not.
“Don’t need to be a college grad to know that when a team picks up 2 WR’s in FA, spends a 1st on a WR and signs several more undrafted FA WR’s that you need to show up at camp now.”
Of course they signed a bunch of WR’s in the offseason. Once Morgan went down this team played the remaining 14 games with only 1 legit NFL WR on the roster. Edwards was a bust, Ginn is a bottom tier WR, and Williams was the below all of them until injuries moved him up the depth chart. Of course they were going to go out and improve their depth at WR. They would have been foolish not too.
That being said, it is a good sign to see Crabtree in camp working out. Hopefully the additional reps with Smith will help them both out this year. On that note it is good to see that ALL of the WR are there working out each day.
All arrows up.
They went after Peyton Manning and signed Josh Johnson. That was telling enough about their ‘trust’ in Alex Smith.
Edwards was not a bust. He got injured early and didn’t make any impact. Maybe it is semantics, but I don’t call that a bust. I just think it sucks.
And, Jack…..the Niners pursuit last year of Matt Hasselbeck which the haters love to bring up was also done when the QB position had nobody (vet) around. And the Niners drafted CK without having any other QB on the roster come TC. So, the fact they drafted a QB then was actually because they flat out didn’t have one on the team. If AS ended up leaving, and we didn’t draft a QB, we would have been holding tryouts for anybody (you, me, fan x) as walk-ons. As it was, AS wasn’t able to participate the first week or so. Without CK, they had nobody to practice/play QB with. The Niners still have WR’s on the team. Even if they all suck.
I actually didn’t think the Niners would spend a first on a WR, no matter how badly they needed to get one. You can just as easily address the numbers issue by drafting one in the 3rd round. The fact they did (draft 1st round) tells me they are really unhappy with the WR’s from last year. All of them.
As I’ve said. The WR position will be determined in TC. Nobody is assured of anything (-Jenkins for obvious reasons). Those 2 FA WR’s we picked up are not going to cost us anything if we want to dump them, we can. And yes. Arrows are up. Very up.
Nick
PM did not sign. Has it occurred to you that he does not want to compete for a job? He could have stayed on in Indy to compete with Luck. He didn’t. He could have signed here knowing full well AS would sign and have to compete with him. He didn’t. The moment he signed with Denver, Denver got rid of Tebow.
Seems to me like PM does not want to have anybody around who can possibly compete with his starting job. And PM was given that job as a rookie as well. He never competed for the position there either.
And what if the Niners offered PM the same money they offered AS? We don’t know if they offered more. You are just assuming it. So if PM had signed he would be playing for the same money AS will be.
And signing Johnson is much more a threat to CK than it is for AS. First Johnson has to get by CK to become the #2. CK should be worried about Johnson. Not AS.
PM wouldn’t have to compete with anyone if he came here. You crazy?
Well, we all know JH’s mantra.
Everybody competes for their job. I don’t see him letting a new FA come in and be the exception. If I were in that locker room and that happened, that woiuld tune me out from whatever JH says afterwards.
All we know is that PM turned down the Niners. Nothing more. And I’m getting tired of hearing the same crap “Well we know JH doesn’t want AS.”
We don’t know crap. And guess what? We never will.
So this Chris Carter vs. Bill Romanowski thing is interesting on ESPN radio lately.
You guys know me, I bleed red on one side and gold on the other but I never cared for Romanowski. I tolerated him (even knowing he had the dirty player label) until he spit in J.J. Stokes’ face. That was it for me.
Carter has always seemed like a classy dude, to me. Romo? Not so much.
Siding with CC on this one. Although a lot of this now is much ado about nuttin’.
Sometimes when I think about celebrities (sports or otherwise), I ask myself; would I want them as my next door neighbor?
CC=yes. Romo = not so much.
Now linebackers are paid to be mean, nasty, hostile, agile, & mobile.
Some do it very well indeed without anyone calling them cheap or dirty. Even Haley (in his youth fails the neighbor test!) wasn’t considered dirty (crazy, maybe. Probably). Butkis, Nobis, Millen, Seau, Ray Lewis, P.Willy; they want to hurt you, not injure you.
@Adam
Carter is an idiot. Did you hear his little take on concussions? Says that little kids don’t produce the kind of impact that can cause concussions/brain trauma.
Well that NEWSHOUR story I posted a few weeks back proved otherwise.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/health/jan-june12/footballhits_04-02.html
Plus I saw a FRONTLINE episode about high school football. Some of these high schools who live and die football have guys who are as big and strong as the NFL players in the 80′s were. If NFL players went thru schools like that to big time colleges and to the NFL, that is a lot of major impact hits on them.
But Carter thinks he knows otherwise. Moron.
As for Bill Romo, I could care less about him.
Watching Romanowski on CSN always makes me kinda laugh and wonder: Is Romo punch drunk, or just plain drunk?
Yes.
Dude’s goofy for sure.
Is it something in our water supply? What’s up with us in NorCal & Ninerland? “Nattering nabobs of negativism..”
Team goes 14-3 and fans:
>don’t like the QB
>don’t like the WR (Crabs)
>don’t like the #1 Draft Choice in 2012 (were mad about #1 in 2011 too)
>think their top RB is washed up (players around the League talk about D & Frank when they talk SF)
>half the fans here were bashing Staley right up to the moment he was elected to the Pro Bowl by his peers
There’s definitely some ‘Half-empty’ thinking expressed here. Personally, I’m looking forward to the season.
@Brotha Tuna:
How dare you question “real” 49ers fans?
Although I agree with the sentiment expressed in your comment, I cringe that you chose to quote Spiro Agnew in support of your/our position.
@ Claude
I apologize. I might have crossed the line with the Agnew quote.
I knew it would be fun to see who recognized it!
@Brotha:
It is an almost impossible to resist bit of alliteration.
It’s a vocal minority. Don’t think it represents the majority of us.
Give off your high horse Brotha. Being critical is not the same as being negative. It’s actually the opposite. Some of us are critical because we believe there’s room for improvement.
‘Get off’
OK, Nick. I’ll have to agree that critical analysis is part of the foundation of discussion. Its helpful if its even-handed (not a shot at you). When its relentless it can become a buzz kill. jmo
DS94everXev says:
May 10, 2012 at 8:35 am
“You do know this is a football blog, right?”
Yes, it is a football blog.
So at least have the decency to agree to disagree if you don’t like my football opinions and content. Jumping on ‘oneAlex’ bandwagon to try to clean up his cheap shots removes you from the football content altogether. I could disagree with Hofe or Adam and still carry a football fan’s respect at the end of the day. It’s the opposite with you and ‘oneAlex.’
You two (and your cheap shot friend ‘prime’) could have at it all you want. I ain’t going anywhere.
AES
I have no idea what you are talking about. How about you stop bringing me into your fights with oneniner for a change? Cause guess what? You talk about me a whole lot in your discussions with/about oneniner. And I have called oneniner out when I see him write something that I don’t think is in good taste. If you didn’t see it, not my fault. You bring me up a lot with onenienr in instances where I never posted.
And what have I said to you that is so brutal? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. You can’t stand me interacting with oneniner in a respectable manner (he actually is capable of it if you aren’t an a-hole to him you know) so you have put down your requirement. That I either hate oneniner like you do, or I am somehow on onenienrs side. I’ll take a quote from Lord of the Rings here as it is quite appropriate:
“SIDE. I am on nobody’s side. Because nobody is on my side.”
Between the two of you, oneniner has suggested that I not interact with you fewer times than you have suggested that I not interact with oneniner. What does that tell you? That you want to control me a lot more than oneniner does. Guess who I am going to defend? The one who wants to control me every second or the one who lets me interact with whom I choose? If it takes you more than a millisecond to answer that, you have issues.
I am fine with oneniner. I am fine with you. If you continue acting like a spoiled brat though and are trying to tell me who I can and can’t interact with though, guess who I won’t want to interact with? If you two have your issues, settle them. I don’t really intercede much at all. Not until the thread has gotten so stupid and long about nothing that I say stop it.
Maybe you should just skip what oneniner says to you. Then I wouldn’t get involved at all.
….lol…..yea AES why do you keep bringing DS into our conversations……..
..unless of course you are proving my point you don’t have a backbone and you always need someone to agree with you or like you (which is why you flip flop)…….its very transparent how pathetic you are
…you are consistent with pulling other people into your battles……you don’t have the liver to counter instead you bring up ninermd the loof faux comments about me being banned, or his faux comments about me disappearing from the blog……..now you are all over DS’s comments about me…..
Now who’s the flip-flopper ‘oneAlex?’ Be a real man and accept your true character. Just tell everyone that you are a Blog Parolee. You come on here just to stir it up. Maiocco along with so many others got tired of your weak act and straight up banned you.
Hahaha, I don’t need MD to remind me of that, your incessent ‘hate’ confirms what we all know, y0u only bring ‘bad energy’ to this blog.
I would bet the store that even your idol Alex Smith would put a restaining order on you!
….you were not here when MM had the blog…….stop trying to flip flop your back into history…..
Hey my fellow 49er fans!! Just wanted to say “hello” and hope you’re all having a great off-season.
Just now catching up on all things Niners – excited to read about all thew draft picks. Any suggestions on where the best summary articles can be found?
Only a few short months away from the first preseason game!!!
@49erGirl
Welcome back. You can try SFGate and the corresponding links:
http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/
Or you can try Matt Maiocco’s archive:
http://www.csnbayarea.com/maiocco_blog
Thanks Nick, I’ll check those out!
Welcome back!
i have the solution to the concussion problem. at first it will sound radical and unrealistic but take some time and think aout it.
back to the future, hemets without face masks. there would be more broken noses and teeth being knocked out but it would go along way towards eliminating concussions. look at the trade off superficial injuries VS dementia depression and suicide. they played without them for decades and the sport was fine you just could’nt use your head as a missle you shoulder tackled. its not very different from rugby where there are very few serious head injuries. if people are to squeamish for that maybe a lighter face mask to protect the mouth and nose but not strong enough to use your head as a missle
@old coach
I suggested the non-face mask thing for a while now. Also, how about not making the helmets as hard.
Players won’t dive into the play with their head down (already a No-No) and no facemask to protect them. See how many supermodels come to be their girlfriends then. I asked Scooter about the rugby tackling technique and he said it is a lot better.
Other ideas have been to outlaw any ground stance (2/3 point stance). Just have everybody basically in the crouching position on the line. That way the first thing you hit is not each others heads but their chests with your arms.
Removing the face mask is the worst idea and I cant believe you suggested it. No face mask means eye injuries and once an athlete injures his most important sense, he is done. DS, c’mon man!
@Prime
No face mask means no more looking like an actor and promoting products on the TV. If you want to play football, it had best not to be followed by a modeling career.
Besides prime. You can wear safety googles. There are plenty of jobs that require them.
That’s a good point Old Coach. I was thinking along the same lines. I would suggest even gowing back to leather helmets.
‘going’
Lack of face masks hasn’t stopped concussions in the NHL.
i agree. but I’d go with a single bar face mask.
the first thing you teach in football is to keep your head up to stop serious neck and spine injuries. no one will duck there head or spear with out a face mask it would end the brain damage problem in one day. if the nfl the ncaa in CA. the C.I.F. were seriuos about ending the problem they could do it. i think they like to give it lip service but are afraid it would effect ticket sales and tv ratings
@old coach:
no one will duck there head or spear with out a face mask
Wouldn’t the opposite happen? Without face masks, won’t more players drop their heads and lead with the crowns of their helmets to avoid injuring their faces?
If leading with the crown of the helmet is part of the problem, and if we want players to keep their heads up and look at their targets when tackling, wouldn’t the better solution be to keep the face masks, but remove or soften the crowns of the helmets?
No. The face masks flat out protect the face from getting bloodied up. If you know thatyou are going to get bloodied up (and by rule you need to get out of the game until the wound is bandaged up to prevent diseases like HIV from spreading) you won’t dive in there like that. You will maintain proper tackling technique and keep your head up. Watch PW. He does it perfectly every time. There is a reason why nobody breaks a PW tackle. He has perfect technique every time.
But you are right about the helmet being too hard. More than not the helmets hardness is used as a weapon.
@DS:
Keeping one’s head up means leading with the face mask. If you remove the face mask, then tacklers will be less likely to keep their heads up. Instead, they will drop their heads and lead with the crown of the helmet.
Ds… Have you ever played football? You don’t know everything. This isn’t the nba. You don’t just run off the field when your bloody. In football as a kid. Your taught to use your head/helmet. Kinda like a hammer. Bury your head into the shoulder pads and hit. It helps with neck and shoulder injuries. Not head. I think taking the masks off would result in more smaller injuries like eyes, throat, mouth and nose. It would be a stupid idea if the nfl thought about doing this. Quit being cheap and look into more scientific ways to better the helmets. Or get serious on the steroid issue. It’s a joke. These athletes are running tanks now. Built to hit, not to take them
@md
I can listen and watch. Did you watch the link about concussions?
@claude
If the helmet is not so hard, (used more as a protection rather than a weapon), then if you lead with your head, you will feel it a lot more than the current helmet design. It won’t take too long for the player to figure out not to do that a lot.
The old leather helmet design was basically made with that concept. To protect the player from injury. Not to use it as a weapon. How many players back in the day led with their head down? I bet a lot fewer than who do today.
Here is an idea. How about having the officials actually throw a penalty when these illegal hits occur? If the teams are being penalized the coaches will take notice, and this will help ensure proper techniques are used.
The problem there Jack is what the officials deem to be an illegal hit. Their range has been from Tom Brady barely getting touched to Colt McCoy getting a shot to the head. One is a obvious illegal hit while the other is a player getting the star treatment.
MWN,
I see where you are coming from. Proper tackling techniques are in the rule book in blacck and white, they just need to start enforcing them properly.
Maybe if the refs strike as might happen their replacements can get it right.
Two more draft picks have signed.
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/05/two-more-draft-picks-agree-to-contract-terms.html
HEY! Max or Manila guy,do you know if Tim Lincecum’s agent Nez Balelo is Filipino? pinoy?
An example of another player that doesn’t get it:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d828f9ef1/article/roddy-white-insists-former-players-killing-our-game?module=HP11_headline_stack
Its very simple on the first day of pop warner through high school and college into the pros you are taught to tackle with your head up to prevent catastropic spinal cord injury. tackleing with your head up simply means lead with your face mask. if there were no face masks players would shoulder tackle to take their faces out of harms way just like rugby. you would still need hard helmets to protect the sides and back of your head
ninermd better helmets just mean better weapons if i feel safer in a helmet i’m more likely to use my head to lead with. what the nfl needs to do is encourage shoulder tackeling. the only way to do that is take away their comfort zone by removing the face mask its was played that way for decades and still is in rugby and aussie football
For decades they also were allowed to leg whip, clothesline, and the runner wasn’t down unless he stayed down. Let’s just make the game like it was in the 1950′s and all will be better.
if you doubt what i’m saying just ask any current rugby player who used to be a football player
@old coach
How about this crazy idea?
You can’t be working out to be as strong and as fast as players are now.
A big reason for the increase in injuries (concussions included) is that players now are so much faster and stronger that when they collide, there is just more force (G’s) than there was in the 1950′s or even the 80′s. Players are stronger and faster. The human skull has not evolved at the same pace in helping to prevent head trauma.
Putting an end to the players ability to be so strong and fast would decrease the G’s each player accumulates on every play and that in turn has a direct correlation in reducing the injuries and concussions.
that might be hard to enforce or measure kind of like steroids before testing
No.
Players of old used to have to work when not playing. Thus they could not work out like machines. They didn’t get larger/faster. And they actually needed TC to train. They don’t anymore.
And if a player is running faster/looking stronger, you know. Unlike the steroid thing. Was the increase in physical attributes due to the player working out more without steroids, or were steroids involved?
The hard part is when/how it is implemented since current players have been working out. You would have to start with a rookie class, and just let all the current vets just disappear over time due to retiring. Then after a decade or so, you will have a league of players who are not super human anymore.
DS, that is partly true – the fact that players a bigger and stronger is definitely a factor in the bigger collisions and severity of injuries. This is also seen in rugby – especially in regards to knee and leg injuries.
Also, with rugby, I would love to say there are less concussions and head injuries, but unfortunately this is not always the case. The main difference though is that hits to the head are almost 99% of the time accidental, and they happen a lot less often. Some players are accidently knocked out by an errant tackle (which is illegal and players are then suspended a few games if they do this, accidently or no), but you almost never see a defender go into a tackle head first, which is the leading cause of concussions in the NFL.
did i miss something or did grant leave the country
Coach,
Today is the first day of media access at 49ers football school. My guess is he is in Santa Clara today and we should have some new material to discuss soon.
It’s mostly the speed, not the size of the players. Kinetic energy is proportional to mass, but it increases as the SQUARE of velocity.
Really doubt that you can undo the increase in the speed of the game, though.
You need to discourage head to head contact, and cushion the impacts to the head as best you can. Maybe a crushable, replaceable soft outer shell around the main part of the helmet?
As for the facemask, maybe a flexible plastic visor instead of bars? That keeps eye and facial injuries down without the hard parts that can used as a weapon.
Just ideas. The league should look into it on their own, though, or lawsuits will ultimately force their hand.
good idea on the face shield
Goggles like Eric Dickerson wore are more than appropriate. Although you can have the face shield on the new weaker helmets I suppose
Ditto.
To Grumpy’s ideas.
I think size does matter. If a 250lb guy falls on your head, it is less likely to damage you than if a 330lb guy falls on your head.
Also strength matters a great deal as well. How much wallop you can deliver depends on speed, which also depends on strength.
And we don’t know how to protect the brain from concussions. Current helmet design is for protecting from skull fractures. That is a separate issue from concussions. A helmet can protect a persons head from skull fractures while not protecting against concussions. We know, because that is what we currently have.
And one hypothesis I have for the increase in concussions is because players are just faster and stronger than they once were. If you are going to reduce the number of concussions, you need to reduce the impact players are having play after play. Waiting for technology that may never come (helmet that protects against concussions) is not a good plan.
Size matters, just not as much as speed. Having a 320-lb. NT fall on your head may hurt… but the 200-lb. safety who hits you running a 4.4 is far more likely to produce a concussion.
There is no way today to completely mitigate the effects of concussion. reducing the G load by spreading the event out over time will help, but its not a panacea. A softer helmet which ‘gives’, and particularly one which has elements which crush and absorb the impact energy (as in a car) will help, though.
@ Grumpy
…so an image swims into view of a bunch of Michelin Men with nurf conehead helmets running around the field bouncing off each other like a high speed pinball/bumpercars game…….
Is this the NFL’s future? lol
So let’s put those big pads like Mark Kelso and Steve Wallace used on top of everyone’s helmet.
http://www.pigskinbuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/steve-wallace-helmet.jpg
The thing is players are faster. DL now move like LB’s not so long ago up to a point. Also there are now 3 such 330 lb players falling on your head, so the difference is magnified. Before guys who were 200 couldn’t run a 4.4. At least not a lot. Now everybody can.
Now the locamotive is getting as fast as a sports car up to say the first 15 yards. That JS play in Philly is an example. I can’t recall a similar play by a DL on one of the fastest players in the NFL before in any era..
The problem is, as DS said earlier, helmets were not designed to stop concussions. That has only become a concern lately, and helmets largely evolved before that.
It’s like that exercise where Engineering students have to design something that will protect an raw egg from breaking on impact, after dropping say ten feet.
You can put your egg in an armored shell, a foot thick, and that shell will drop and crack the concrete beneath it. there will not a scratch on that thing… but, inside, your egg is scrambled.
Basically, the energy of the impact was transmitted through that hard shell and into the egg, instantaneously.
Or you can create something soft, which deforms on impact… a gel, or better yet, something that crushes and absorbs the energy, some kind of foam material. The shell will look like crap, but inside, your egg is unblemished. Most of the energy was absorbed before reaching the egg, and what did reach the egg is stretched out over some milliseconds. The maximum G load never gets as high, and the egg is not damaged.
Something like this, in combination with the league’s efforts at education and enforcement of penalties and fines for hits to the head, is our best bet at reducing these kinds of injuries.
One thing about a concussion you do not have to have contact to sustain one. You can also get one from a whiplash.
Michael Pietrus.
It is harder than that. If that was all there is to it, there would be no concussions. Thing is the brain is something which only now has began to be understood in science. So we don’t even know how the egg in your example is really designed.
Charlie Rose has the brain series from time to time. Cool stuff.
Hearing reports that Moss is looking very good in camp. Hope Grant will get some of his impressions posted soon.
…reports from who???….why can’t you give credit to whom you got the report?????????……
….got it from a Matt Barrows tweet….
…dude…..i don’t care where you got the report……..just letting you know people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones……
Yes Jack, lots of reports from different sources saying the that Moss is looking good and hanging out with Crabs. Thats good Crabs having someone to mentor him. Another thing is Moss isnt talking to the media, I like that.
Me too. We need a new story!
Kinda wondering about the fallout of Vernon Davis’ little brother.
Seems like it would be hard to keep your head in the game when your brother is arrested for first degree murder.
Adam
I was thinking the same thing about Vernon. He is an emotional guy this has to be tough on him.
It’s hard to imagine concentrating on football when a Brother is possibly being tried for MURDER !!! But who knows,maybe football can serve as a distraction for VD from the worry and heartache ?
…..”Veteran receiver Randy Moss must have run a dozen go routes himself. He looked like his old self, appearing very fit and very fast. In fact, he caught a bomb from Smith in the middle of the end zone from 50 yards away.”…..
……Oh ..Oh….Alex throwing bombs 50 yards away……kudos to POTUS endorsing equality…….they might be right about Earth going down 2012…..
……DS…. can i get a mortgage on your planet!!!
In regards to the Big Ben v. 9ers thing, Suzie Culver on NFL 32 just said, “bottom line is the 49ers are just bad asses. They play defense the way it should be played.”
Grant:
Can you speak to your webmaster about getting an ignore button ?
Thank You !
…There might be ONE poster here or another ONE poster there that some of us would like to be able to completely ignore. Some might say their choice for that honor would be me ,lol.
lol! That was a gem!
Tim are you suggesting that someone might want to ignore you?
Under:
Probably more than one would love to ignore me ! I don’t really blame them,lol
We should all have the choice !
I for one love to read ALMOST everyones opinions and if they don’t agree with me I like to read them all the more,since I might learn something looking at things from a differing point of view !
I’m fine with an ignore button. I think that some should be required to ignore others. The blog would be a lot nicer.
Hahaha! Wrong again parolee. You will never get your credibility back around here. Especially with questions like, “what is a smither?” Hahaha! That one ranks about as high as, “what color is blue?” Give it a rest Einstine, you’re killing me with your brilliance.
…lol….dude you are trying…I give you credit for that….but still “you are what we think you are”!!!
Thanks for the morning laugh son. But ‘oneAlex.’ stop borrowing statements from other people. Dennis Green will never be an NFL coach just like you will never out live your parolee status, let it go son, you and Dennis Green can’t win!
Kinda surprised your two cohorts DS and prime haven’t taken their regular follow-up chesp shots. Maybe their tired of youe weak act as well.
In any case, it’s been fun bantering with you son. But I have better things to do. Later ‘oneAlex’
*cheap*
How did this comeback?
And BASG is just full of antiCohn posts..most are laughable..just looking for that sore spot to set off a Cohn-ANY Cohn-lol. Hey,I never knew, Lowell had a little man complex? the things the enemy says!
Stan
What is BASG? You have talked about it a few times, and I don’t know what you are referencing.
Bay Area Sports Guide???
It is another blog site. bayareasportsguy.com
He definitely has issues when it comes to the Cohn’s.
Yep-Jack is accurate. I didn’t know tweets could be blown up to “WORLD WAR III HAS BEGUN” proportions until I saw the Grant and AD tweets.
btw,If you missed a tweet- BASG even has the AD deleted tweets.
@Stan
Actually much of the what has been going on in the mid-east for the past couple of years with governments being overthrown as in part due to twitter.
So, if you lived there, it might feel like WW III.
Does anyone actually read that BASG thing?
Looks like the dude just piggybacks on other’s stories? He reports what the reporters are saying? Hahaha. Nice.
I’d take Bleacher over that site.
Dull.
Just keep in mind Grant..any pub is good pub is true.
This is not encouraging:
http://www.csnbayarea.com/football-san-francisco-niners/niners-talk/Source-49ers-Goldson-not-close-to-signin?blockID=707652&feedID=2800
@claude
No franchised player is close to signing. If the agent and team could have come to an agreement, they would have already.
I mean, Drew Brees still hasn’t signed, has he?
And I’m not all that concerned about DG not signing either. He stank until last year. I have confidnece if he wereto leave for whatever reason,we would not suffer any major setbacks.
Claude,
It might show that the negotiations toward a longer term deal are on going. As it mentions in the piece, by signing the tender his leverage in negotiations is severely weakened. If this carries on into August then it is time to worry.
@DS: Actually, 9 out of 21 franchised players have either signed their tenders or signed long term deals:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/58400/franchise-tag-tracker-ravens-ray-rice
@Jack: I hope you are correct. I am not worried, but, as I said, I am not encouraged.
claude
9/21
I guess it matters if about 43% or so is a good number to you.
To me, it isn’t. And if Drew Brees does not sign, and we reach 20/21, that one will cost one team a chance to go to the Super Bowl.
Our one…not so much.
It is a lot better than the none that you stated. You should thank Claude for educating you on the subject.
@DS:
43% >> 0%
Well
100%>>>43% Has 57% difference (14%) which is a good 25%+ (more than 10.75%) more than 43%.
Like I said, same thing. Different perspective. Nobody is right or wrong.
@PD IT guys How is that ignore button coming along?
@DS:
No franchised player is close to signing.
Not looking for an argument, but one of us was wrong.
It is an expression claude. Kinda like when people say “No politician cares about us.” You know that isn’t true, but people get what you are saying.
And since the only one that I really care about (the Niner players) isn’t close, that one carries a whole lot more weight than the 9 who have on teams I don’t much care about anyway.
as with your last power ranking, I don’t understand how you can have the Lions ranked behind the Eagles and Bears. The Bears? Brandon Marshall does not magically make the Bears better. He doesn’t pass protect and the stars on the defense are still old and they are transitioning from a Tampa2 Defense to a more standard read and attack based 4-3 system. Cutler had no one to throw to last year (other than Forte). Now he has one guy to throw to. Andy Reid still needs to embrace the run and get a competent Defensive Coordinator that stops running that stupid “Wide Nine” defensive alignment as their base Defense. They also need to stop puting Nmandi in deep zone coverage. And while they played a bit better in the last part of last season, the Eagles still need to prove that they’re not a randomly assembled mess of talent.
The Lions also run that stupid “Wide Nine” defense. And while the Niners defeated it with their power run game, the Lions can be decent because of their talent on the D line. Their areal attack is awesome and will probably only get better with more effort committed to complimenting Johnson. Their run game needs to get better. Last year they were decimated with injuries so I will assume that it an only get better. Their pass defense was suspect…but then they also play twice against the Packers. It’s not that bad if they can lean more on their front 7 to continue to provide pressure and tighten up their coverage…instead of relying on big wide open loose zone type coverage.
The Lions went 5-6 after we beat them down following their 5-0 start. And they didn’t beat anybody (or many) teams of worth, and got whopped on big time by several big teams (AKA the Saints/Packers).
the right side of our offensive line unproven, but called Rueben Randle, who has never taken an NFL snap, an upgrade over Manningham……ironic
More a year like Dayton had imo
The giants are not the best team in football these rankings are stupid. They barely made the playoffs last year and lost so many key pieces they got worse not better. Randle is an upgrade a rookie who has done nothing over a proven player in the playoffs and superbowl? WOw guy you shouldn’t be allowed to write articles this is horrible.
until they get beat…yes they are. The Giants won the superbowl
Grant,
Didn’t we read nearly the EXACT same thing last week? All you pretty much rehashed your previous “rankings” with expanded commentary, of little insight and depth and passed it off as legitimate journalism. And is there really a point in doing this on a weekly basis in the middle of May during the offseason? Please do not deign to set foot in 49ers headquarters ever again, and I would appreciate it if you relinquished your press pass to security.
Sincerely,
Jed York
It is the same posting Jed. He just deleted the twitter stuff from over the weekend.
Grant, not a big fan of your dad but I love the “balls out” attitude. i’m a huge Niner fan and loved the “fued” between you and Davis…. Stop with the boring love fest and have more great articles!!! You are Doing a great job and please don’t change your approch!
Wow, you were really hard on Sam Bradford, meanwhile every GM in the league would pick Bradford over Alex Smith if they had the choice, so where does that put the niners? :-(
If you are gonna repost something, you may want to reread it for consistency… you dont even need to go past #1.
So when this first came out, Randle was an upgrade over Manningham for the Giants, but your last post said Manningham is a great receiver and uncoverable by one DB alone, and now Randle is an upgrade over him again. So which is it? or is Manningham only great when you wanna bag on Crabs?
Here is different from other places. People are talking about football, based on Grant Cohn’s article.
Sooooooo funny.
@ great majority of people.
Let’s stop feeding this troll. Cohn and his followers will be gone soon
Grant,
No rook can be an upgrade over a starting, productive vet until they prove it on the field. To state otherwise is faulty analysis IMHO.
It’s projectionalysis. Take it with a grain of salt.
Lots of posts being deleted. I understand you deleting the one where I called Oneniner a “certain” type of virus.
Why my post this morning get deleted?
He asked me to take it down because you called him by his xbox live name.
A couple of mine were deleted last week – wasn’t calling anyone names or being inappropriate.
Thought I has been banned for lack of participation :-)
I didn’t do that! Must have been a glitch. Good to have you back!
*had been
It’s public information. If he/she doesn’t like it, then he/she should delete it or block it from being seen.
@Grant:
He asked me to take it down because you called him by his xbox live name.
Just so I understand the rules, how is calling someone by his/her xbox live name inappropriate?
DS wants it private and I’m willing to accommodate him.
So using someone’s Xbox live name is grounds for having a comment deleted, but it is okay to use derogatory terms related to people with mental disabilities even when others find them extremely offensive?
TY – hopefully I can post more consistently once things settle down at home/work.
Keep your chin up, Grant!!!
You guys we are not privy to all of the “complaint” emails DS sends in. I am sure at some point this is the type of individual that can create legal problems for you. Grant and the Press Democrate are just being cautious I guess.
@Grant:
Thanks for the explanation.
Rueben Randle better than Mario Manningham in 2012? You never cease to amaze Grant.
Love the retread article, I think this was posted about a week ago, but at least refresh the comments, so one doesn’t have to sift through 500+ to get to the point. I think your top 5 are pretty good, but IMO you have the Steelers ranked too high and I don’t think the Giants are the best team in the NFL, Green Bay is easily the better more complete team, and will be the team the Niners have to beat, not only week 1, but in the Playoffs! Also, I think Jacksonville will easily be the worst team this year, and Miami will be better than you and most people think, also you listed no key personell losses for Miami, but the Brandon Marshall loss was huge for them, even if he was a head case and their idiotic Management chose to trade him.
Thanks for the comment. I think the Giants are a bad matchup for the Packers, because New York has an elite pass rush and Green Bay has a sub par offensive line.
But Grant,if the Pack’s O line is subpar,then how is it that Rodgers plays the QB spot sooooo very well ? lol I thought a less than stout O line was a reason for a QB to ply poorly,lol.
Fleming 5th round draft pick this year sustains torn ACL too bad.
DA BILLS should be at 15th on this list. come on now…. Their offense is going to tear it up this year. Fitz is a solid distributor and can make plays when you need him to, Fred Jackson is a top 5 back, and Stevie Johnson is a beast when he wants to be.. No offense? Ridiculous….
BILLS vs Patriots in the AFC Championship