This is a companion piece to the blog I wrote yesterday on how offenses might try to attack the Niners defense. I write this to start discussion. I am not giving away any secrets, not that I know any secrets. NFL teams already know these things, and so do the Niners – they self-evaluate all the time.
Now that the 49ers are not sneaking up on anybody, here are five ways I’d expect defenses to try to attack the Niners offense. Do you disagree? Do you have anything else to add? This is a purely academic discussion.
- Double team Vernon Davis until the 49ers make you stop. Make Alex Smith prove he can hit Randy Moss and Mario Manningham deep down the sidelines when they’re single covered.
- Test the young right side of the line early with stunts and overload blitzes. If you beat the right tackle, Greg Roman has been known to keep Vernon Davis in to help block, which is a victory for any defense facing the Niners.
- Blitz up the middle. Last season Jonathan Goodwin and Adam Snyder struggled to pick up blitzing linebackers in the strong side “A” gap. This year, Daniel Kilgore or Alex Boone will be the right guard, so you can bet defenses will test that guy first.
- Don’t give up the big play. The Niners want your defense to over-commit to the runs and the short passes so they can then burn you deep. They struggle on third down and in the red zone, so they’d like to bypass those challenges altogether. To counter this strategy, make the Niners drive the whole field in 13 or so plays and make them have to convert multiple third downs. It’s exactly what Vic Fangio preaches to his defense.
- When the Niners offense gets near your goal line, take away four plays: 1. The run up the middle 2. The fade pass to the wide receivers. 3. The quick slant pick play Smith threw to Delanie Walker to beat the Lions (he also threw it to Crabtree for a TD against the Saints in the playoffs). 4. The QB naked bootleg run. Alex Smith tends not to throw into tight windows, so he likes these four low-risk red zone plays. Take them away. Make him try to throw darts into the middle of crowded end zone.
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This is easy, it’s the same thing defenses have been doing for years: Make Alex Smith beat you with his arm.
Agreed. Very simple and obvious.
Grant, once again this was the deficiencies of last years team. New York and New Orleans went the let Alex beat us with his arm and did. In the postseason the Niners lost not due to Alex’s arm but due to turnovers in special teams. It’s unfortunate how a guy that has worked though inedpt ownership, lack of weapons around him until finally this year, swiss cheese for a front line, coaches that forced the team into specific schemes as opposed to developing schemes around the talent they had and above all the mdeia which constantly focuses on the players as opoosed to the real problem is still being talked about as the problem.
My view is suit yourself up, start throwing balls in real games, go through what Alex had gone through and then comment.
If I’m not mistaken, a prior news writer last year got yanked off this blog due to fans walking away and revolting – dude, you are doing the same thing.
Alex beat moronic Saints blitzes and leaving linebackers and safties to cover Vernon Davis. That’s a pretty easy read. The Saints sold out. Now to Smith’s credit he took advantages of opportunities when the came to him. But at no point did the team lean on Alex’ s arm to win games. Special teams and defense put him in positions to comeback and win games. And again, to his credit he did a pretty good job. Not once did we see the team dominate with an aerial attack outside the hashes. A lot of blame can be pointed to the wide receivers. But regardless of who’s to blame the 49ers have not shown the ability to throw outside to the receivers. And to attack their offense you should make them show you that they can do that. The additions of Moss, Manningham, Jenkins and Alex working in his mechanics should help. But again until they prove it, opponents should attack the areas where they are strong and make the Niners throw outside and deep.
The point is that everytime someone says that Alex can’t do something, he actually ends up doing it. It’s easy to soeculate and be critical behind a keyboard. Strap on the pads and let’s see what you can do before throwing rocks at someone that keeps on trying and succeeding.
“But at no point did the team lean on Alex’ s arm to win games.”
I haven’t looked at the play by play of last season in a while, so my numbers may be off just a bit. I think it was 10 games in which they had to turn to Alex’s arm to win. I believe the numbers were something like 8-2. You should go back and look at the play by play.
@dr
It was 6 comeback wins. A few games when FG was pretty much not used due to injury and every snap when the game was in question when AS was leaned on last season including every playoff snap.
Besides 70% of a QB’s job is their brain. Not their arm. But some want to ignore the majority and focus on the minority.
@Go Niners!
This.
“Double team Vernon Davis until the 49ers make you stop. Make Alex Smith prove he can hit Randy Moss and Mario Manningham deep down the sidelines when they’re single covered.”
Odd that Smith was able to hit Crabtree for 900+ yes while Davis was being doubled teamed and you still think he can’t hit his receivers.
I always get excited to see a new Niners article, then I see who the writer is.
Grant, great article.
it’s interesting that you’re focused on the pass. double Vernon Davis, make Alex throw to the outside receivers, over load the right side of the line. I don’t disagree. But remember, the foundation of the Niner’s offense is the Run Game. The run game sets up everything else. So how do you stop the run game?
The Niners like to run in overloaded unbalanced formations. It works well against zone defenses because there’re usually a man short on the overloaded side. But when defenses started to do the obvious which was to commit to stopping the run on the overloaded side the Niner’s responded with running counters to the weak side of the formation.
The best way to stop this would be for one to bring the safety up in the box to not only commit to helping to double Davis but to bring another run defender in the box. Do this until the Niners can prove they can go deep on you with only one Safety in deep coverage. I would also send the middle Defensive Linemen to crash the middle of the line (A Gaps). Basically similar to your blitzing scenario against Goodwin and the Right Guard only in this case a gap penetrating charge up the middle to disrupt the run in the backfield.
Then you put the Niners in 2nd and/or 3rd and long. In which case you rely on disguised coverages and right sided line stunts. Smith has shown that he can play against the Blitz (even before the New Orleans game). But the Niner’s line can be beaten one on one. So there’s no need to blitz. If you disguise and rattle Smith you may cause a turn over or a dump off short of the 1st down marker.
Tremendously insightful comment. I learned from it. Thank you.
the way to counter that kind of defense (you know that I know that you know…chess game) would be to pass out of those multi-TE extra run blocker personnel package formations. We saw this occasionally last year. The ones that stick out in our minds are the passes to Sopoaga and to Staley in the same game. Those were sort of gimmick or trick type plays….the kind that you don’t rely on (but hey you take what you can get I suppose). But for the most part when the jumbo blocker extra Tight End packages came in, it was obviously a run play.
But I hope that with a full off season and with Vernon fully absorbing the Playbook (which is something he admitted to not fully doing in the regular season), maybe there will be more flexibility and variation to throw the ball to Davis, Walker and the Third Tight End so that the offense looks a little bit more like Stanford’s multi-TE passing attack.
@allforfunnplay:
Those two comments were good reads. Thanks for the effort.
grant started an interesting X’s and O’s discussion. He and many of the posters have some well thought out ideas.
Bill Walsh used use a lot of boxing analogies. String together plays is like boxing combos. using your strengths, attacking an opponent’s weakness and misdirecting them. And with plays setting up other plays. So you can jab, jab, right hook. or body blow, body blow, upper cut….which is to lead with the run or the pass, go deep go wide…and expect for your opponent to drop their guard or adjust.
Interesting reads allforfunnplay. It is clear that in previous seasons teams have focused on stopping the run by committing extra people to the box, and then double covering Davis with a LB and safety help over the top when he goes out. This will continue until the 49ers offense shows teams they can beat you with the pass to other players, forcing extra defenders back to defend the pass and potentially freeing up running lanes and Davis.
The onus is really on Harbaugh and Roman to devise ways to get more out of the offense. Defenses for the most part have been able to keep the 49ers offense in check, so there is no need to change what is working.
It is vital that the 49ers OL is able to hold up to the pass rush without having to commit Davis as a blocker – he’s the 49ers most dangerous receiver and having him running patterns is also important to free up other receivers. As allforfunnplay said – it is a win for the defense if Davis is committed to staying in as a blocker. 49ers need to find ways to make sure Davis is primarily used as a receiver not blocker in the passing game, which requires both improved OL play and continue to use hot routes when the OL breaks down (which Smith did well last season).
One of the best comments I’ve read here in a long long time – all football. Similar to what Rocket or Adam might post. Well done!
Adam Boone? Grant, you should know Alex Boone’s name by now.
I love chess! Hi to all Mechanics Institute Chess Room friends. By the way, it’s nice Grant stopped talking about no-football items, and is now bringing up strategy-tactics topics to the table. I still think Harbaugh-Roman offense will be balanced in run/pass plays, about 50-50. They have the weapons to do it.
I think you will see Alex throwing for over 300 yards in a lot of games. Watch Out NFL, you will have to notice the NFC West this year.
13-3 or 14-2.
How many yards do you reckon Alex Smith will pass for this season?
Larry,
Time to put the Xbox away.
Jack, you don’t think AS will throw for any 300 yd games this year?
No Hofer, I don’t.
Which Jack is replying??
The original Hammer, Hofer. I use the email that goes with the device, different for work and home. Sorry for the confusion.
Jack, got it. Now regarding 300 yd games in 2012, AS had three over 250 yds during the regular season and one over 275 during the playoffs. I foresee five 300+ games and an average of 250 per game for a total of 4000 yds this year. The differentiator is the focus in the offseason on offense. The WR group is better and adding a playmaker at RB that can play all over the field will take pressure off of the TE’s. It will be a big year for the offense.
How many NFL QBs do you think will pass for 4,000 yards this season?
I’d say about a third of the QB’s will throw for 4000 yds in 2012. The 9ers will be in some shootouts this year and that is why I think the passing yardage will increase for them this year. Plus, they won’t be surprising anyone so the play calling must be better in 2012.
I could name 17 QBs who have a good shot at 4,000 yards. Some sleepers: Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck.
I’d agree with that number. Some will be close, but will just miss the 4,000 yd mark. I’ll say 11 will make it.
10 made it last season. 11 is reasonable.
Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford, Both Mannings, Romo, Rivers, Ryan, Newton, RG3, Palmer, Dalton, Cutler, Smith all go for 4000 this year. Im thinking around half of the QB’s this season break the 4000 mark. Alex being one of them.
Hofer,
I respectfully disagree. He will have a better year, but will not approach the type of numbers you predict.
Grant,
Not sure on the number over 4,000, but Smith won’t be one of them.
I don’t think he’ll make it, either. His career best came in ’10 when he averaged 215 game. He won’t beat his career best by 35 yards a game – that’s too drastic a jump. Smith improves incrementally.
He will have some big games because they will have to playing that schedule. I see 4,000 yds, 29 TDs, and 14 INTs. BTW, he’s never had a supporting cast like this on offense. He’ll have multiple options on every play this year.
That sounds like a 98 QB rating or so.
I think he’ll go close to 4,000, but won’t quite get there. Somewhere around the 3,750 mark. I think the 49ers will have their 1st 1,000 yard WR in a long time this year (probably only just over 1,000). Crabtree, Davis and Moss should hopefully be able to account for around 2,500 yards combined, and with Manningham, Jenkins, Walker, James, Gore and Hunter in the mix I can see Smith getting to the 3,750 mark.
Interesting that it is a 92 rating if he is a 63% passer. Same rating as EManning in 2011.
Hofer,
I applaud your optimism : )
Thanks, Jack. I’m not the only one…MD who is one of AS’s harshest critics over the years, believes he will be a #7 QB this year. My project 2012 numbers would put him 8th just behind EManning last year. My gut tells me this is his year. Stay tuned…
Grant, AS increased his passing yards 774 in one year – a per game average of 48 yds per game from 2010 to 2011. Why couldn’t he again increase his yds per avg with a more talented cast to support him?!!
Hofer,
29 touchdowns from alex Smith in 7 games??? That’s not gonna happen. That’s 4 touchdowns per game. 29 touchdowns would be a career high! Never. He will never throw for 4000 yards. He does not have that shot in his bag!
Hofer says, “Grant, AS increased his passing yards 774 in one year – a per game average of 48 yds per game from 2010 to 2011.”
That is because he played in all 16 games last year compared to 11 in ’10 Hofer. His per game average actually dropped from 215 in ’10 to 192 in ’11.
http://www.nfl.com/player/alexsmith/2506340/careerstats
Being benched for Troy Smith cut into Alex’ numbers a bit.
Jack, it was actually 10 games in 2010. I still think he will be at or very near 4,000 yds. It will be an awesome year for the offense and an near elite year for AS. Why? It is all JH. He will continue to get the most out of the players and this year it will be AS and MC.
As I said earlier Hofer, I applaud your optimism : )
Like Lloyd said to Mary, “so you’re saying there’s a chance”
Grant
That means Smith will finally reach elite status at age 40!
@msc
“Being benched for Troy Smith cut into Alex’ numbers a bit.”
That is going to be a trivia question one day.
I don’t think it likely that Smith, even should his production improve with the improved receiving corps, will throw for 400 yards. Part of Harbaugh’s approach is to run the clock.
It’s Smith’s passing efficiency that is important, not total yards. We’ll see if that improves.
Oops! 4000 yards.
One thing to consider is the Niners were extremely conservative last year, with virtually no off-season training the team had to learn the playbook on the fly and the coaches had to adapt to the players as they found their strength and weaknesses.
Wasn’t it the third game of the year in 2011 against the Bengals when the national announcers were complaining about having to watch such a boring game? The Niners did just barely enough to win, incrementally opening up the playbook unless they absolutely had to when they needed a comeback win.
Harbaugh and crew were patient, waiting to create some of the plays that evolved over the year into exciting, big-scoring games like the New Orleans game in the playoffs.
The coaches will do the same this year — they would rather gets wins than be flashy — but there will still be a lot more yards. I’d think 4,000 is a possibility, but maybe not. Really, it’s somewhat irrelevant. It’s the wins that matter, and the coaches and the players know that and have bought into it.
This season, the Niners will hit the ground running. The team and its quarterback should get a lot more yards than last year, whether that quarterback is Smith or not.
The interesting thing about how teams will prepare for the new look 49er offense is a great topic. IMHO, this could be one of the best deepest Offenses we’ve seen in recent years. Gore is a great feature back, and Hunter looked good last year as back up. Crabtree had 70 catches but in the playoffs was a non factor- not enough weapons; but Davis somehow managed to become the deep threat and looked great. This is where the fun begins. Manningham and Moss will now join this solid core group and scare the living daylights out of secondaries. All signs are pointing toward Moss doing his thing and despite his years in the league the only injuries he ever had to rehab were soft tissue, non surgery ones; and the silver lining with his motivation problems resulted in rolling up his odometer to high with plenty of tread left. Long story short, Harbaugh will script out plays to set the table: throw deep to Moss early just to show the stadium how fast Moss still is; hit Manningham on a safe out; and hit Crabtree and Davis on routes under Moss, taking safeties deep; then settle into running game now that the safeties are out of the box and it is clear to DC that Moss can’t be left in single coverage. Next,….go to the NFC Championship Game!
David,
Do you really think Manningham is going to scare defenses? Sure he is an upgrade over what they had last year, but I doubt he will put fear in the opposition.
That could come from Moss, but only if he is healthy and capable of playing like the Randy Moss of 4 years ago.
thanx for the comment. trying to be objective, I think the beauty of what 49er’s brought in is how all these new weapons function in different parts of the field. Manningham’s areas of production don’t really take away from where Moss is going to thrive. same with Davis and Crabtree. I like the balance more than anything. Manningham is a pretty solid receiver. He can move the chains and threaten deep. But the key is if DB’s will be forced to double Moss. If Moss starts to occupy one of the safeties, really, everything will fall into place. and personally, this is what I see happening. Davis will benefit; Crabtree just might go off and Manningham just has to run routes and see what happens. Can’t wait to see just how explosive James and Jenkins are. again, speed kills. and we haven’t even factored in Gore and that power running game. To get the ball deep you need play action and just running Moss deep: forces safety to make a decision and clears out a lot of space underneath.
sorry for rambling but there’s a lot to talk about.
thanx
David,
Those are all strong observations. As you mention it is interesting how the 49ers can now spread out a defense, both vertically and horizontally. The added speed is something that was missing last season as well.
This all bodes well for increased performance in 2012. It might actually be fun to watch the offense again.
PS Add to that recipe, James and Jenkins and the 4X100 prelims will start running heats and not only won’t the safeties be a factor in running game, they will be out of gas along with OLB’s. The corners will be fully toasted by the end of the third quarter. The 49er’s can now put three to four Wideouts on the field that will rival GB, NO and Pitt. Speed kills. ask John Madden.
Getting LaMichael James will prove to be the Steal of the Draft. This guy is better than Reggie Bush in his sleep. He’s very close to having Michael Vick at the RB position. and with Jenkins the speed gets ridiculous. Remember Moss’s slowest reported time in 40 this offseason was 4.4. hmmm? that’s fast. and with a rolling start, we’re talking under 3.0.
this will be good.
CORRECTION: Put Moss in motion to give him a rolling start and he’s under 4.3, easy. sorry for the error!
although with a forward rolling start, I think under 4 is possible!
David
What is your base offense?
Mine:
5OL
1QB
2WR
2RB
1TE
That’s another interesting thing about this offense. The fullback. Most teams don’t use a lead, blocking back, so that’s a good question. the lead back is great in the running game and pass protection or as safety valve, but it does keep you from running double TE’s or 3 Wideouts.
but that is the scary thing about what the 49ers added on O. total flexibility.
and no pun attended, but if there was ever a receiving TE who would produce from the flex position it’s Davis. This question is a big one: will Harbaugh put in packages with Manningham, Crabtree and Moss at the expense of the fullback? Nice problem to have. the way I see it is the 49ers now have all the weapons you need to run anything. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them use everything from double TE and 2 RB’s with just Moss split wide, all the way to 5 wide. They’re that loaded. Actually, the two wild cards are Moss and Alex Smith. If Smith starts season hot, it’s pick your poison.
A young league leading Defense, and a fully loaded offense. this is the best 49er team I’ve seen since before TO! on paper that is.
we shall see. But when’s the last time SF looked this good on paper, on both sides of the ball. Long time coming!