Our friendly poster Jack Hammer sent me a tweet this morning with an idea for a blog. He urged me to investigate the statistical similarities between Alex Smith and Andrew Luck in each quarterback’s first season playing under Jim Harbaugh. So, I did. Thanks for the idea, Jack.
Before I get into it, let me just say I’m aware this is an imperfect comparison, primarily because Luck was competing against Pac-10 defenses and Smith will be competing against NFL defenses. Here goes anyway.
Luck’s freshman season at Stanford he completed 56.3 percent of his passes, threw 13 TDs and 4 INTs.
You’ll notice those numbers are similar to Smith’s numbers from last season: 61.3 completion percentage, 17 TDs and 5 INTs.
There seems to be a correlation. If there is, can it help us predict Alex Smith’s future?
Conventional wisdom says Smith will improve significantly in his second year under Harbaugh, but how much can we really expect him to improve?
Here’s what Luck did in his second year at Stanford: 70.7 completion percentage, 9.0 yards per attempt, 32 TDs, 8 INTs, 58.02 percent third down conversions (1st in NCAA).
Luck improved his completion percentage almost 15 points from Year 1 to Year 2. He also increased his touchdown total by 19, and he increased his touchdown-to-interception ratio from about three-to-one to four-to-one.
If Smith improves the way Luck did from Year 1 to Year 2 under Harbaugh, he’ll be an elite quarterback in the NFL. What are the realistic statistical expectations for Smith in Year 2 under Harbaugh? I’m eager to read what you think.
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Only one way to find out! Bring on the Packers!
And every 49er fan in the World will agree with me when I say, “I hope the Cohn is right.”
Is that you Alex Smith?
I’m looking forward to seeing his ‘new mechanics’ and how that translates in to improved accuracy, especially to the wideouts on sideline and deep throws. I think he gets there.
Realistically, I’d say Alex gets about 3,600 yards with 24-27 tds against 8-10 picks. Also hover around 65% completion
With these stats I’d assume we would be winning a lot of games
If you include the two playoff games this past season, Alex Smith threw for 3,600+ yards, 22 TDs and 5 INTs. It’s not hard to believe that he can meet the numbers you’re predicting. He may even exceed them.
Good luck with that! He also benefitted from the best turnover ratio in the last 15 years, that won’t happen again.
pigskin, how do turnover ratios effect a QB’s skill and stats?
From what I recall, Luck was quite accurate in his 2nd year under JH. If AS can improve his accuracy, his statistics will improve this year. That alone will not make him ‘elite’. I think other areas needing improvement are field vision, pocket presence, and attitude. We’ll see how that goes.
Attitude, how so Nickrow?
I think Nick means by being more of a killer, an a-hole. Smith’s gotten to the point where he doesn’t care what anyone thinks or says anymore.
Really Senor? Because I thought Mr. Smith cared when he didn’t sign the low ball contract he was offered. He also seemed to care when he tested the market and found no serious takers.
Just an observation : )
IMHO, AS neede to develop a ‘take no prisoners’ mentallity. This is what Steve Young has talked about regarding AS – that he needs to develop that ‘winning at all cost’ mind set. It remains to be seen how much AS can improve in these areas. We’ll find out soon.
So just trying to understand your logic Nick, how do you measure that take no prisoner, balls to wall, win at all cost mentality versus a smart, methodical, mistake free type of attitude? Is it wins or just personal perception?
Nick,
Steve Young called it, “over my dead body” mentality. I love that phrase.
FDM, some guys are not rah, rah, and keep there emotions in check. Alex is not a fiery guy. The only stat in which to measure Alex is wins. He passed that test last season, now we are on to this season. The inbetween crap and analysis is useless.
He’s a grown up his personality is set and the mold has been cast. Being a confident a hole and being a leader is something you either have or you don’t, you don’t all the sudden “develop” that in your mid 20′s. Alex is a meek dude, period, if he all the sudden tries to be a confident tough guy it will look really artificial.
FDM
I hope AS does not try to be like SY. He isn’t like him. He isn’t him. AS needs to do whatever he does to get better.
That is like when people said to SY, “You need to be more like JM.” Well, for a long time he tried that. And he failed. When he said “Screw that, I’m going to be me.” he became a first ballot HOF.
Lesson: You don’t get better by being other people. Only by being yourself and doing what works well for you.
LOL Alex trying to be a confident tough guy is like a kitten trying to be tough. Hard to be tough when all a defender has to do is get a fingernail on alex and he’s thrown to the ground like a rag doll.
Pigskin, are you serious, your actually questioning Alex’s toughness? I think if you polled every single hater on this blog, the one and only compliment they would say about Alex is that he is tough! You my friend are clueless to even hint at Alex’s toughness.
Two dumbest guys on the blog,
Pigskin saying Alex is not tough and Neal for just being Neal.
@FDM:
Just ignore him. He’s a troll.
Tough guys get thrown around like rag dolls? How is he tough? I’ve never heard anybody refer to that meek kitten as tough lol. I call tell you aren’t tough name calling behind the safety of a computer, you would get slapped in real life because you are wimp you likes wimpy loser qbs.
He’s a troll lol, only a pathetic nerd calls people trolls. And you are a loser that lives with your mother and you worship a loser qb. Hey stupid, the guy didn’t get one offer in free agency proof is in the pudding, I think the 32 teams in the nfls front offices know a little more about football than you dough head and they all determined your hero alex smith isn’t a good player, what sport are you gonna follow when alex is out of the league in 2 years?
Jeez Pigskin you sure are smart. Not… I’m neither a fan nor a troll when it comes to Alex, but your snide comment about how getting just a fingernail on him would bring Smith to the ground is just…plain…stupid. Dude, you are clueless…
“LOL at Prime I live in my Mommy’s basement Slime”. That is funny I would say the biggest two dopes and the blog buffoons, would be Prime Slime and DS.
Neal is en fuego today!!
Yea Jack,
I am on fire,good thing I have been taking Spanish for two years too, heard Prime Slime and DS are having AS baby, I saw the blogs last night, they were hilarious, was LMAO.
Neal fitzbob, how’s the dumbest guy on the blog today? My mom’s good, I heard your son graduated, was that from the same highschool as you? You know the one where you recite the alphabet and get a diploma?
Prime Rib, Is it true that your mom is so hairy that Sasquatch takes pictures of her?
Hard to believe just a few hours ago Adam was posting some excellent football analysis. Where’s Rocket?
Hey Jack did you come up with that at the same school Neal and his gifted son went too, or are you two the parents because based on your football IQ’s , I’d say all three of you are mentally challenged?
Go jump off a plane sky dive clown!
Prime Rib, you don’t jump off a plane, you jump out of it. That reminds me, I think I saw your mom at the airport when I was getting on the plane. Some workers were busy painting Goodyear on her.
LMAO at Jack, that was a great hairy Joke about Slime Mom.
Hey Slime Fatnich, you got to be the biggest loser on the site, living in Mrs. Slime basement, does your Mommy charge you rent. Did you ever have AS over at your basement, did you touch his nuts. LMAO !!!
How was the graduation of the 2nd dumbest guy in your family. Do you guys sit around at night and see who can count to 5 the slowest?
Slime I hate gays time.
Heard you got the same size boobs as your Mommy. Your momma’s so fat she makes free willy look like a goldfish. LMAO
Jack don’t you have some articles and links to post? BTW you should jump into an airplane, face first just to improve from gross to ugly!
Hey Slime Fatnich,
Yo mamma’s so fat she was attacked by japenese mlitary, they thought she was godzillas wife. LMAO. Heard you your man boobs are hurting your chin.
Hey Neal, check it out. Right before she was sent on her maiden voyage Prime Rib’s mom gave me a school picture of him.
http://s292.photobucket.com/albums/mm30/davstrong78/?action=view¤t=kid-dunce-hat.jpg&mediafilter=noflash
Priceless two losers on a Friday night googling the Internet for Mom jokes thinking it upsets me, laughable!
Neal your son should be proud to have a father figure like you and Jack, well your just an irrelevant figure of zero! Enjoy your Friday night of negative bull!
Prime Rib, “two losers on a Friday night”. Why are you bringing DS into this?
@Jack:
Not your best work.
I know Claude. As I said to Hofer, I apologize for going off on a non-football related tangent.
@Claude
You should call out Prime too. At least Jack is man enough to apologize.
Lets get back to football guys. You provided me some good laughs though :)
Apologize for what? Those two idiots go back to a conversation 2 days ago that I thought was over, but they keep bringing up the Mom thing. So Nick before you pop off clown, make sure you know what your talkin about pal!
Heck they even brought up DS for no reason so when we call you morons haters, theres a reason and evidence to follow, so all of you shut up and let me enjoy my Friday night!
@ Jack,
Love the school pic of Slime Prime Fatnich, I saw him the other day in the little school bus. Hey Slime Fatnich, when you wake up in Mrs. Slime basement, do you have a pic of AS on your ceiling, so you can see your mancrush first thing in the morning. lol
@NickRow:
Apples and oranges.
As I saw it, Prime merely was responding to Neal’s typical asshattery. Jack, for some unfathomable reason, chose to join with Neal and gang up on Prime. Predictably, joining up with Neal caused the quality of Jack’s comments to crater, which led to my comment.
You are correct, however, that Jack was man enough to apologize. Not that he needed to.
@Primate
You’re a sensitive little weasel trying to take the high road. You throw names around and then play the victim card. Yeah, you’re honest as well. Mama jokes don’t bother me. Right !!!
lol @ NickRow,
Slime Fatnich plays the victim game, he is such a sensitive boob, actually a manboob, I heard he has AS come to Mrs Slime basement and they hang out together and they rub their boobies together, now that is a dedicated fan.
Neal, manboobs = moobs. Ok, now back to football.
It’s official, I own Neal, Jack and Nick! Your mine all of you. You guys are so easy to get a rise, I’m just playing you like an old fiddle! Prime rules!
You Slime are such a pathletic sensitive turd, your the one complaining to poor Grant that Bay Area was insulting your Mommy and it hurt your feelings and your so upset that Grant didnot pull those responses. Hey Slime I heard you and your Mommy were at beach and singing to the whales ” We are family ” lol what a sensitive blowhole.get it blowhole and whales ahahahahhahaha
Right on cue Neal, your my bioch! Thanks for proving my point!
Hey Slime Fatnich
I heard last night from the other Smithers that you had AS in your Mommy’s basement and AS says that your his bioch. ahahhaha Your AS bioch. lol
Haha Neal,your too easy, c’mon my little toy, keep it comin, this time say something about my Mom and Alex in one thought, 3,2,1 and go…………
@Neal
Primate is fuming inside. I wonder how he keeps his moobs off he keyboard while typing.
Yours Mama so hairy Slime you almost died of rugburn at birth. But AS father caught you. Did you know that your mom had a affair with AS father, no wonder you guys have nut rubbing parties. lol
@Nickrowe.
You are so right, Slime can’t take the heat, that is why he is so slimy.
Prime 10 Team Bioch (Nick, Neal & Jack) 0.
Fuming? I can’t stop laughing seeing you guys come up with childish comments. Keep it coming and expose to everyone how I’m under your skin, Buwhahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!
I’ve been a faithful fan for a very long time and I’ve never heard Steve Young say he was trying to be like Joe. I have never heard anyone say to or say about Steve Young that he needed to be more like Joe. In fact, I’ve heard Steve say he always knew he had to be himself because his game and his talent were much different than Joe’s.
I’m curious if there is something I am missing on that.
If you lived near the bay area, that is all you ever heard.
Steve in his early days was not as comfortable as he became later. It was “JM would have done this, why don’t you Steve?” Steve would try and not do it. Then Steve stopped trying to please everybody else and did what works best for him. The JM comparisons were usually negative in the beginning and more contrast by the end of SY’s career.
Maybe that is what SY is saying about AS. I am 100% certain though that AS won’t win us what we want by not being himself.
I lived in Rohnert Park/Santa Rosa from the 60′s all the way through the championship years. Steve was not well liked initially because he tended to tuck it and run rather than make the passes. There was an undeniable comparison between the 2 QBs because they were so different. However, I have NEVER heard Steve Young say he was trying to be like Joe Montana. I have NEVER heard anyone say he needed to be more like Joe. I did hear people say he needed to execute the offense Bill Walsh designed rather than trying to freelance on every play which is what he did his first few years.
@houston
I can’t argue what your experience was.
But I can tell you that the fans where I was were a lot meaner and tougher in their evals than that. Each day after a game, they would say stuff about how SY needs to do this and that because Joe did.
And of course you won’t hear SY say that. It would be shocking if he did. But I got a sense by watching him that he didn’t come into his own because of the JM shadow. Remember the monkey on SY’s back? A lot of that was JM as well as never having won a Super Bowl.
After that game, people compared the two QBs a lot more than they said SY can’t do this and JM can.
I guess were reading this differently-albeit, the title is a bit leading.
I read this as how much improvement can we expect out of Alex…as in the improvement that was made in Luck under Harbaugh the second year.
I mean, heck. Luck hasn’t even thrown a pass in the NFL yet…
Houston,
BS, I mean DS, no inmean BS is a liar. How do you think the clown got the nickname. This idiot just makes things up and hopes nobody knows any better. This clown thInks it knows something about everything 49er football when it really knows nothing.
I dint know where this clown got that info from with regards to young being like Montana. Steve young knee he was completely different than Joe. BS is a joke and his comments are fairytales in his little sensitive brain. I’m glad you called her on it. I certainly am. tell the clown BS to cite any article. I live 30 minutes from the stick and never heard anything
before like that in my years as a Niner fan. Stupid BS made up some more BS.
StopDSXyz1239865326 !!!!!!
Grant
What would happen if welcher were banned?
Things get a lot better.
One of the biggest AS fan’s is Prime Rib, oh I mean Prime Slime. Hey Prime your Mother MRS. Prime was such a nice women what happen to you and why did you change your name to Slime. Going to call you Fatnich, does not follow sports much but is a sensitive blow hole. You are such a bottem feeder nut hugger. lol Your a joke.
Hey Jack,
Prime Slime has been bashing me, so I wanted to get under his fur. ;) I am off to my son’s graduation so I will have to catch up tomorrow. And like alot of us we were caught up the moment with Alex Warhol 15 minutes of good fame, then the following week, he was back to what he was the last 8 years. Catch you later.
Hey Neal,
Big congrats on your son’s graduation! I know what you were doing. Just busting your chops ; )
Alex has got to be tough with all of the balls he should of thrown but got hit by a freight train way too many times. I am so ready for JJ.
Neal,
C’Mon man. Don’t make me look JP your “I will never doubt Alex again” comment from January ; )
@ Claude nuts
I would put you in the same category as Slime and BS, other then your love of AS, your football knowledge is much more intelligent then those two buffoon.
@Fitzbob Neal:
In addition to the fact that what you wrote makes no sense, you placed your comment in the wrong thread. Are you drinking and commenting again?
@NickRow:
I rest my case. (Do you see what I did there?)
Using a I phone on here can be tough sometimes Claude thick no brain Fatnich. No I am not drinking and rarely have a couple of drinks a month. Did you go see AS at Slime Time basement last night, did you get a man hug from your idol? , you putz.lol
@Neal:
It’s too bad you aren’t drinking. If you were, we’d at least have hope that your comments would make sense when you sobered up.
Now, we are left with the depressing thought that this is the best you can do.
lol Claude your kind of a buffoon but that was funny,
Since this is a sports blog I will end with this.
Slime mama’s so hairy, her armpits look like she has Don King in a headlock. lol
Wrong thread smart guy!
Prime 11- team bioch 0.
You can’t stop, you love embarrassing yourself!
hahahah I’m embarassing myself is that all you have. Sweet dreams of AS tonight in your Momma basement. hahah
With those kinds of numbers, not only elite, but historically elite. Too big a leap if you ask me.
I’d settle for 62-ish percent, 4,000-ish yards, 4 to 1 td/int ratio.
Ribico,
Do you think it is too much to expect Smith to increase his yards per attempt by 1.9 yards given the additional weapons he now has?
@Jack:
I know you asked the question of ribico. I hope you don’t mind me answering.
Yes, it is too much to expect Smith to do something that has happened only twice in the past 10 years. Only Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and Peyton Manning in 2004 have averaged 9 or more yards/attempt for an entire season.
@Jack:
By the way, great topic.
I don’t know, Jack. That’s putting him close to Rodgers territory (smith ats 7.07 and rodgers 9.25). And Rodgers had arguably the best QBing season in league history last year. I don’t see Smith pulling *that* off.
Claude,
Thanks for responding. What do you think would be a realistic expectation?
@Jack:
What’s with the focus on getting people to make specific predictions?
In my opinion, there are far too many unknown variables to make an informed prediction. A lot will depend upon how much Harbaugh/Roman open up the offense. Will they keep the same run/pass ration? How much better will the offensive line pass protect/block for the run? If Moss burns teams for long TDs early in the season, will opposing defenses shift their coverages deep, thus allowing only the underneath stuff for the rest of the year? Is the league going to keep pushing officials to call games in ways that favor passing offenses or will the pendulum start to swing back next year? What effect will replacement referees have on passing stats?
Not knowing any of the foregoing, and hazarding a wild guess, I will say 7.5-7.6 yards/attempt might be realistic.
I’m not a fantasy football guy, so I don’t particularly care what Smith’s individual numbers are. I am more concerned with how the team fares. If the 49ers are winning, and Smith is contributing to the victories, then I will be satisfied with his play.
Claude,
You told me that expecting 9 ypa was too much. I have my opinion, but wanted to see what yours was first. Either way, my number is 8.4 for this year.
Plus, I think that if someone is going to share an opinion it is best to try and be a little specific and put some skin in the game.
At the end of the day all of us, okay not all, but most of us can easily say that all we care about is the W’s because it is true. Just trying to get people to back up their opinions a little more is all. You should know what I mean.
@Jack:
Fair enough.
Claude your nuts. He will be the 3rd. Wait and see.
The NFL is not college. Alex was also very good in college but he has not had what it takes in the NFL. We will find out about Luck’s NFL ability in the next few years but we have already learned that Alex is nothing special.
@TIM:
Thank God you dropped the disingenuous “Golly-gee-I-hope-Alex-Smith-has-a-Pro-Bowl-season-this-year-but-every-expert-agrees-with-me-that-he-won’t routine and went straight to the flawed analysis.
You’re absolutely wrong, but at least you’re not wrong and a phony.
This is what we will find out with Alex, you can take it to the bank, he will play with brilliance some games, other games he will be ok, with a fling of greatness, and other games he will go unnoticed and not in a good way. He won’t be consistent,he can’t improvise and the stars have to be lined up perfectly, if the primary receiver is covered he will dump the ball immediately to a back for a insufficient play. AS is no Andrew Luck. Let’s hope that he can get better with third downs and red Zones or Akers will have another career year.
Neal
Do you even know what you’re saying?
Do you know that in 1985, R. Craig had 92 catches and Rice had 49? Do you realize that 5 years, 84-88, Craig averaged almost 80 catches and the latter part of the 80′s, Rathman and Craig combined for about 100 or more catches? Nobody ever called Montana the dump off King. Walsh said the WCO was like a long handoff. Montana was made famous, in part, for what Alex is getting criticized for. People used to praise JM for going thru the progressions and then knowing exactly where the back was to dump it off. AS just cant win here! Think about it for a minute. And oh ya, It’s all Alexes fault in the RZ and 3rd downs. Amazing! Really?
I hope AS is not like AL.
AL played against college players. I don’t want AS playing against college players. If he does, then the Niners will lose a lot of games
this year.
Really Grant. Why don’t you wait until we have seen AL in an actual NFL game/season before you make any such comparisons?
PS Of which there are none. How many QB’s have gone thru what AS has?
BS, we all can just see right through your petty bones, you don’t like Jack and don’t want to give him credit for a good blog. Get over it.
Neal
You said you didn’t want me to reply to you. It works two ways jerk. Stay away from me. I stay away from you.
BS isn’t here. Your friend 23jordan is in his basement.
Neal,
There is no way a country music fan like yourself is a jerk, at least in my book. “Online” from Brad Paisley…who does that guy remind you of ; )
BS is a lonely scoundrel Neal. The only friends BS has in life are prime blow tree and his 8 personalities. I petition the PD to give this clown a job. It sorely needs one. This weirdo never sleeps, goes on a date, turns off the computer, takes a shower. It’s a blog bum. A wannabe Niner expert.
Everyone on this blog knows who is really in a basement and never comes out. BS, go get some fresh air please. Take a shower, you’ve gotta stink!
Welcher, welcher man!
Well, you were going to be a man until that horrible accident happened when you were 12. Your mama and papa told you not to do it so much, or else. Didn’t listen though.
Apples and oranges, Andrew Luck is a baller with an nfl skill set, Smith doesn’t do anything well and an 8 year failure that no team wanted in free agency. Every team in football including the niners would take luck over smith in a second even if luck hasn’t taken an nfl snap.
Zzzz…
I do expect improvement from Alex this year but he simply doesnt have what it takes to be special…imho.I hope he surprises all the experts and me and somehow becomes elite !
… and there’s the phony TIM we have all come to know and loathe.
Damn it. I knew it was too good to be true.
I dont care if AS ever becomes elite. It is unimportant. What is important that he becomes a very good QB. He is on his way to that. Dont need to be elite to be a winner. Alex is going to be very good QB this year and he is going to quash your dreams of him failing.
@undercenter
Since nobody defines the word “elite” especially for how it pertains to QB’s, why do you use it?
You use a word that has no meaning. If you are going to define “elite” it needs to include all the QB’s who you call “elite” and exclude everybody else.
If you sit down and try to actually do it, it isn’t that easy. So, I stay away from it as best I can. Especially when it comes to a position as complicated as QB.
True, elite is a undefined term, I think its more of the eye test thing. I guess some use stats to define it but I dont buy it. Seeing that in my eyes, it is an eye test thing thus it becomes very objective/subjective in analaysis.
Undercenter,
Try this word unelite= Alex Smith!!! I made that word up but it fits. What the heck!
Baby steps for little alex, maybe in year 20 he will be kinda good lol. Ya’ll don’t even follow football or watch college football so you have no frame of reference. Go back to Magic the Gathering please.
This hater makes Neal, Jordo, bay look intelligent by comparison.
“Alice” in 3… 2… 1…
ribico you don’t know what a hater you goofy nerd… He’s had more chances than any athlete in the history of sports and only a few brain dead morons like you don’t realize the guy stinks, move on. Go have alex’s baby and get it over with loser.
>> football geniuses like our head coach don’t realize the guy stinks.
fixed it for you, hater.
Oh, and Pigskin take a lesson from Jordan23, bayareafan, Neal. They do what you are pathetically trying to do so much better.
Pigskin,
Arguing with Smithers is a waste of time and energy. They love Smith thru he’ll or high water. If he threw 5 picks in each preseason game, they’d still be saying he is our guy. The can’t face the fact that his phone never rang in free agency. His agent probably called Miami for him. he will be benches this year. He will come out this year and try and prove the doubters I’m the league, media and this blog wrong. He will turn into the pick machine he always has been. All the lucky bounces and dropped ints he got last year will be picks this year. He will stink like he always has stink. The man had 1 complete game last year. The Tampa game. that was it. Every other game was a picture of inconsistency. The story of his weak career. But Alex is tough!!! Great.
“This hater makes Neal, Jordo, bay look intelligent by comparison”
+1 ribico
He’s new, give him time. He hasn’t received the literature and club ring in the mail yet. :P
i could care less about stats and alex smith…if he’s part of the team and is able to help us get to the super bowl and win it…great…i don’t care if he’s elite…just win FOOL
Comparing the two Quaterbacks would be insane. Its comparing apples & lemons for the two are different, has it been SLOW DAY FOR YOU, Mr Cohn???
What a streeeeeeetch.
Compare and Contrast – To compare or contrast something you have to have similiar circumstances. The only similiarity is that they both were coached by Harbaugh. College to the NFL is like night and day, completly two different things. I suspect Luck for various reasons will out perform Alex in his first few years. Maybe the most important factor in that is Luck came from a Pro Style offense and is more ready for the pros. Hopefully Luck wont run into the same bs that Smith ran into.
The only stat I care about improving on is POCD. I would like to see that about 40 to 45 percent. I know the Niners can do that this year. With that improvement we win most if not all games.
POCD means what?
It was Grants thing – Performance on Critical Downs.
Its a very good stat and I am not much into stats. It will affect other stats such as 1st downs, touchdowns, yardage, ball control and yuck QBR. Prob affects other stats I just havnt gone into that much.
@undercenter
Well,
AS was very good on POCD. He did throw that pass in Detroit (4th down) and in NO. In both games, the pressure was on. Not to mention the other comeback wins (Seattle deep pass to MC).
For me, it would be the exact opposite. AS needs to perform better in the non-POCD plays. If he does, there won’t be very many POCD plays to make with the team we now appear to be assembling.
DS
The reality is some plays work and some plays dont for whatever reason. Teams will always have that 3rd down situtation. Its just part of the game. It would be nice if you never had a third down but we know that isnt reality. The differnce between 1st and 2nd down and 3rd down is if you have failure then you have another down or two. Usually on 3rd down if you fail you punt or kick the field goal. In some cases you go for it on 4th down. I am not disputing that AS didnt perform I just want it to get better.
undercenter, “The only similiarity is that they both were coached by Harbaugh.”
That is the point of the comparison under. If you compare the stats for each of them in their first season as starters in the Harbaugh system they are very similar. For example, in their first year as the starters Luck averaged 1.08TD passes per game, and Smith averaged 1.06TD passes per game. Luck averaged .33 int’s per game, and Smith averaged .31 per game.
I understand there is a big difference between defenses in the PAC10 compared to the NFL. Put that aside and look only at the fact that they are both playing in the same system. The Harbaugh offense is demanding on the QB. They are responsible for controlling the offense, which early on will put a lot of mental stress on the QB.
Now with a year under his belt, and a complete offseason working with Harbaugh/Roman/Chryst I would hope to see a similar leap from Smith. His understanding of the offense will be sharper, and instead of thinking he can relax and just let the game come to him, and hopefully play 4 full quarters with the same kind of agression and poise that he has shown so many times during 4th quarter comebacks throughout his career.
I dont think you can expect a similar leap due to the differences of the game. I already expect AS to get better, but if your expecting the same leap or even close to it, its not going to happen. If Luck came to the Niners and after his first year I would not expect him to make those big leaps. Improvement yes by all means but not by that much.
I agree.
It is easier to make such leaps in NCAA because the rest of the competition does not get better at the same rate. In the NFL, it does. So such increases are much harder/rarer to find than in the college game.
undercenter,
Fair enough. So what kind of leap would you see as being reasonable to expect from Smith this year?
Jack
I cant really answer that. I think if you look at my pocd comment that should somewhat answer the question. With that improvement you will see stats balloon. Improving that 3rd problem which just isnt an AS problem its more of a team thing. I cant say AS is going to throw for more yards or more touchdowns and actually I dont care. I think AS is going to improve simpley from being in the same system for a 2nd year in a row. He can work on his game not learning a new system. Hey if you and Grant are making assumptions that this is going to happen then I hope you are right. But if you are going to look at it that Luck made this big improvement an AS didnt then your wrong. Like I said I expect AS to emerge into the very good catagory this year.
undercenter,
I can’t speak for Grant. I wanted to bring this up as a positive discussion and get everyone seeing the “potential” increase that we could see.
Tough to compare the growth of a 2nd year college player to the potential growth of a 7th year pro. A lot more untapped potential in a college guy.
Smith’s improvement from 2010 to 2011 might be a better comparison. You could probably expect a similar boost in 2012. Maybe a bit more because of a full offseason and added weapons.
Smith in 2010: 59.6% comp, 4.1% TD, 2.9% INT, 6.4 YPA, 215 yds/game, 82.1 QBR
Smith in 2011: 61.3% comp, 3.8% TD, 1.1% INT, 7.3 YPA, 196 yds/game, 90.7 QBR
I could see another 2% gain in comp % easily and another .5 YPA wouldn’t be ridiculous. If Harbaugh continues to limit Smith to fewest attempts in the league (other than Tebow) that would still be a 200 yard increase over 2011 and should get Smith into the 3500 yard range.
Of course, if you only look at the 2nd half of 2010 compared to 2011 it’s a bit scary. Smith actually regressed from that point. In the second half of 2010 (in between benchings) Smith was 61% comp, 5% TD, 1% INT, 8.16 YPA, 204 yds/game, 99.4 QBR.
If Smith can bounce back to 2nd half of 2010 form in 2012 it should be a good year for the offense and a decent progression in Harbaugh’s offense.
You are a strange guy Claude. Do you have an opinion about football or do you only get off attacking other fans personally ?My opinion is exactly as I write,nothing phoney at all in any way.Because I hope the best for Alex and every Niner player BUT dont think he is a very good QB and doubt he will suddenly improve greatly enough to become what I wish for MY team, you attack me ??? I guess my posts make so much sense to you and are so logical and truthful that they shake your faith in Alex ? Sad that you dont have more faith in Alex .
Why not just do as I do post your opinions and dont hatefully attack fellow fans for no other reason but to somehow make yourself feel better about yourself ?
HVe a wonderful day!
Question #2 Tim. He tried once to post his (Chuckle chuckle) “knowledge” of football and got embarrassed. He provides nothing but half copied posts to make a point. And yet never posts anything to be copied. Claude are you even a 49er fan? If so, have you ever thought that ANY player stunk and you wanted to see someone new at that position?
how do you still have a job???? O_O
Win games.
Win games.
Win games.
That is what I want.
LOL No! There are plenty of high school qbs alex couldn’t duplicate… He simply doesn’t have an nfl qb skill set and it has been proven over 8 pathetic years.
yeah
That is why he started in college and was the #1 pick in the draft.
Anything else?
Great use of the number 1 draft pick lol. He ran a spread option gimmicky offense in college, doesn’t translate to the nfl. Next!
That is where you get yourself in hot water.
2 possibilities
1. You are right. In which case you are against having the player who the whole team is behind. Way to go!
2. You are wrong. In addition to not having a clue what you are talking about, you throw in some hate. Way to go!
No hate just facts stupid…. The team is so behind him they try to upgrade over the guy every year!!!! LOL The team is so behind him that half the niners team were tweeting about how excited they were the niners were going after peyton manning lol. You’re nuts dude your love for the guy is making you crazy.
At the very least we know he was inspired by Neal. Making friends all over the place
@pig
“The team is so behind him they try to upgrade over the guy every year!!!!”
They sure have and with all the QBs that were available the Niners only really went after one PM. Palmer, McNabe, Flynn, Hassleback, Cutler, could of moved up in the draft for RGIII or the year before when they selected Aldon when Newton was there. Answer why they havnt made the move to get a new QB? I bet you get the answer wrong.
Undercenter,
They selected Aldon when and Newton was where! You do realize that Cam Newton was the # 1 pick overall. Aldon was drafted quite a few spots later. Cam was not available to the Niners. Hasselback was and they tried to sign him. He chose tennesee.
@Jordon
Of course I do, have to make a deal, you can deal if you think the need is there, if the need is there then you deal, thats what I am trying to point out, there have been many options to replace Smith and they havnt pulled the trigger. And you are very correct with Hassleback but if that was to be an upgrade of Smith they would of made an offer that he couldnt refuse. I am just trying to point out their have been chances to replace Smith and they have tried a little bit. They did draft CK but you and acquired JJ which we both like, they acquired Tolz who I also like. It just seems weird if AS is as bad as some say they havnt made a move.
Alex will continue his inconsistent play, lose several games on bonehead mistakes and will be benched before the bye.
Josh Johnson will be the QB at the end of the year and if the Niners don’t pull the trigger on the Alex farce too late, in the playoffs. If Alex remains the starter, Harbaugh may be pulling a Jim Mora at the end of the season.
If it’s a continuation of last season, the boneheaded mistakes will come from other players.
Alex didn’t set the world on fire, but it wasn’t any boneheadedness coming from him that cost the Niners games.
Good post completely agree.
Ochocinco cut by Patriots. Ha….I guess he can go back to alligator wrestling now or soccer.
They took that salary cap hit then. WOW.
DS – Can you imagine? Niners pick up Ochocinco and he asks VD for his number!
You know TO went bankrupt. Maybe Ocho will as well. Isn’t it expensive to change your legal name? How many times can he afford it?
: – )
Nah, DS, they restructured in the off season in anticipation. ESPN said they shopped him for a couple of days before cutting him.
Maybe he and TO can soothe each other and figure out why it went so wrong.
Not to rain on anyone’s parade, I get the premise, but it is far fetched to compare NCAA football to the NFL. We discussed this once already I believe. AS doesn’t need to be AL and vice versa. AL had a loaded Stanford team and now AS has a loaded 9er team. How about a blog on projections for 2012?!! Midwest started a subject along these lines a few days ago. Everyone can partake…
“We discussed this once already I believe. ”
We discuss it every day hof.
I’m talking about *trying* to compare someone playing in the NCAA program and the NFL. The major difference is speed, speed and speed. Not the liquid form but wheels/leg movement. Keeping the analysis in the NFL is more objective. You don’t see data comparisons between pro and amateur players ever.
“You don’t see data comparisons between pro and amateur players ever.”
I see it on this blog all the time hof. I saw it 2 years ago when fans in the bay area wanted AL here in SF. I saw it last year when fans compared AS to AL with JH as their HC. We are seeing it now..where fans/writer are comparing AS to AL.
Of all the QB’s, AS may be the guy who gets compared to others the most. I wrote a post a ways back where I told Grant that if he gets a bonus check, he should really forward it to AS. Since AS gets him so much writing material and blog hits.
“You don’t see data comparisons between pro and amateur players ever.”
DS, obviously I’m talking about the talking heads NFL analysts and the experts that write for the NFL in some capacity. Not the average Joe.
I know you are pulling my leg now hof. Everybody here is an “expert”. Haven’t you heard? We have facts that can’t be disputed.
Plus I betcha at least one ESPN “expert” has made the AS vs. AL college vs. NFL comparison.
DS, reminds me of “Shawshank Redemption” quote by TRobbins (Andy D.), “Everyone in here is innocent, didn’t you know that.” lol
Hofer,
It isn’t about Alex Smith being Andrew Luck. It is about projecting the growth for Alex in from year 1 to year 2 in the same system. Try not to get caught up in the NFL v NCAA thing, it is about the Harbaugh system and all of the complexitities and intricacies that go along with being the QB in the system. Do you think that it is possible to see him develop at that rate for this year?
He has never come close to that in his career, but he has never had this level skill from both a coaching, and skill level around him.
Jack, I hear you and understand the premise, just don’t think it is a logical comparison to discuss. That’s all.
Thanks for checking it out and commenting Hofer.
@jack and grant
I think all of us to include the anti AS crowd are expecting AS to perform even better then the past year. To think that the measures are going to be the same I seriously doubt it. I certainly would not complain if they did but the expectations of improvement will be diminished by the quality of the of the NFL game versus the college game.
That is reasonable undercenter. What type of improvement do you see from Smith? Try to be specific.
Jack
Ok I will try to answer that. Its an intangable thing that I am most looking at. One thing I noticed about AS is when the pressure is on he seems to perform better. Not all the time but in most cases. I guess you would call it is the killer instinct. If he could play with that instinct most of the time he would be an outstanding QB. That is my one area I would like to see AS improve on is the killer instinct. As far as the stats are concerned I dont care as long as the Niners win. Also look at the pocd comment I made it also helps to answer that question.
@undercenter
My order of special 4th quarter 5 minutes left in game visors is in order then.
:- )
hof
Remember later on in the movie (maybe not word for word, but general idea):
“Really? Like actually innocent?”
We can apply either here, right? Depending on who.
:- )
Wrong league pal, this is a National Football League blog not an Arab League blog.
Huh? Who/what are you referring to Crab?
Deleted post.
Damn, I missed my daily dose of wackjob?
Seems like the IT guys should be able to delete the contents of the post without deleting the post. Keep the placeholder there with the words *deleted* or whatever so we don’t end up with abandoned posts at the end of the thing, those are annoying.
No Adam
It was some Syrian rebellion stuff. I don’t want to get into it any further.
thank you.
Your welcome?
Deleted post reply razor.
Sweet! Thanks for getting that post to 300 comments. Now I can collect a royalty from Grant ; )
I knew one of my followers would be a credit to sports blog posters world wide..Congrats!
Hey Stan,
Did you see 415 media last week, both of us were mentioned on Rich’s blog?
We rule Neal,we rule.
Yes we do ! Singing we are the Champions of the world !!
Grant
If you were going to compare the two, the only way to do it is to compare AS NCAA stats with AL’s.
Of course the whole thing falls apart once you learn the offensive systems are not the same. But that is not as big a difference as the skill difference between the college and pros. You can have a very skilled college team. Of which only a couple get drafted, and none have an NFL career greater than 3 years.
Does that mean the college team wasn’t good? No. Does that mean those players weren’t good? Maybe. Depends on how you evaluate it.
Great. Are we back to the schizo blog where things don’t go in order after that messed up post?
At least he deleted it, that kind of crap just pisses me off. I am with you tho if a post is deleted would be nice if everything remained in order,
3500 yards 24 td’s and 9 picks. 3 rushing tds
Those arent top 7 numbers, and I dont want to wear a Bears Jersey. Try again and bulk them up a bit. =-)
If you end up wearing a Bears jersey it is GR’s fault. lol
To win a Super Bowl, Alex needs to be efficient. He does not need extremely gaudy numbers. Not with the support of our D, ST and running game. Assuming we don’t get snakebit with injuries.
Around 3,800 yards, 25 TDs, no more than 10-12 INTs could do it *IF* we convert 40% on third down.
Those numbers are not unreachable for Alex. It isn’t a trivial step up, but it is not insurmountable. And if he falls short, we have three other promising young QBs who can compete to get their shot. I feel pretty good about our position going into TC.
Alex Smith is why kids get trophies for coming in 8th place.
its funny that guys like you attack alex…so far, alex has showed me he is an average and serviceable NFL qb…but you sir, weren’t even good enough to start on ur high school team…u probably couldn’t even beat alice smith at madden on ps3 or whatever…it’s pathetic….support ur team and give opinions, but don’t personally attack ppl…it’s like me going up to you and slapping u for being friggin ugly…
@holla
I think pigskin was always the kid who finished in 9th and never got a trophy then.
LMAO!!!! In years past I would agree, but this season he will ball. Oh and you forgot that EVERY kid has to play also. lol
Come on pigskin, you are just itching to call him Alice (imagery from Dr. Strangelove is strong with this one). Put your fingers to the keyboard and out with it.
Those 8th place trophies are pathetic. I have kids and tell them that unless you finish in the top 3, don’t bring a trophy home with you.
Nick……..Top 3? Dont bring anything home without a 1 on it. lol Ok maybe not that drastic, but my son will live by that rule. Wheeew! Play harder, practice harder, more push ups, more pull ups. lol
@MD
I see you changed your avatar, but can’t tell what’s in the picture :)
Yeah, I remember the day when trophies were given only to 1st place. 2nd and 3rd place got ribbons or something like that.
@nick. That’s me and some friends at the NFC championship game. A cop parked next to our spot so we decided to take some photo’s next to his po po mobile.
Alex did great for a QB that finally had a good/great coaching staff. He should be better this year just because of the coaches around him. Is he great? No but he will improve and might get the die hard mentality just because of the expectations of this season and because of the success of last season. Winning creates a attitude. This team finally tasted success. If we can get the Alex smith that played the saints the niners will be fine with him. This is Alex Smiths year to prove what he has and he deserves the chance. It’s not his fault he had to deal with nowin and dingleberry.
Great is not the right word when in comes to explaining how AS did last year. He was average. Can he become above average? We’ll find out.
Good Read. Hammergate, Great idea. Here we go
1 Same system- check
2 better weapons-check
3 Jim Harbaugh- Check
4 Worked on his footwork and throwing motion- check
5 Got some Confidence-Check
6 Pocket awareness???- The only question.
2012 projection
yrds- 4001
comp%- 78
td’s 33
int’s-13
Smith WILL crack top 7 in Overall Power Rankings next season. He cant lose with Harbaugh.
@MD
7. Improved field vision ?? not sure if this is coachable
8. Killer mentality ?? perhaps visit to shrink in the offseason might pay off
9. Consistency ??
10. Playoff experience – check
11. Chapters 2 – 10 in the playbook now implemented – check
12. 100% endorsed by JH – check
Projection:
4,000 yds
28 Tds
13 INTs
**AS misses top 7 by 1 yd and MD wears a Bears jersey lol jk
Cold Blooded Hof. Just Cold Blooded! Heard today that if I do lose its going to be a Dent Jersey. Blah!!!
@Hofer
AS throws for 4002 and Hofer changes his avatar :)
*But MD is OK with wearing a Bears Jersey because the 9ers WIN the SB!!* WWHHEEEWW!!!
“@Hofer
AS throws for 4002 and Hofer changes his avatar :)”
Nick, only back to #36 – PHof! lol
You got that right. But Ill be paying for it though, and it will be better than any of my annual ones. I already have a plan on putting my tailgate truck in the backyard and all of the tailgate belongings there with it, with one of the tv’s and bbq’s there for 49er fans only, all of the others can use the patio, or mancave, or front room tv’s. I was so ready last season before the fumble. =-( But this season it will be worth every penny. I told my wife about the truck plan and she couldnt say a thing, the look of “your nuts” Ive enjoyed Lakers Championships since Ive been with her, but she knew from day 1 if my 9ers got to the Superbowl again……All rules are out the window. WHEEEEEW!
That reminds me Nick, I forgot that website where I can change my Pic. Do you know? I think my homegirl is mad at me for this one. lol She’s a dirty Raider fan so who cares?
@MD
The website is gravatar.com
Thats right. Thx Nick.
Interesting topic, Grant and Jack.
As my co-worker and fellow Niner fan just reminded me (as we were talking about Barry Zito and Alex Smith’s mechanics coach during a break in the 8th inning in San Diego), Smith has always had second-rate talent around him.
Finally we’re getting some upgraded talent and… interestingly enough, some of Luck’s former teammates.
This is an apples-to-oranges comparison, as you mentioned but how would you rate the talent around Luck his first year? And how much did Harbaugh have to do with re-building that program (which was dismal) by adding better talent? Or was it similar talent all along and Harbaugh just brought a better pro-style offense and a different philosophy on D?
Seems to me the Niners (and Smith) will benefit if either scenario is true just like Andrew Luck did. Better talent? Or is it better coaching with similar talent? Probably a combination of factors of course but it’s an interesting component to your topic.
I suppose I could go look up all the Stanford comparisons but… nah. :P
But Adam. Smith was also second -rate talent. The QB is suppose to make every player around them better. There are rare occasions when a wr makes the QB look great. Not a knock, but a different look on your post. We know how good Moss and Davis are. Its up to Smith to make those two real threats again. Without Smith, Davis hasnt been that good. Lets say Manning was here and healthy. Players like KW and MC would benefit from Manning. Thats what Smith will do this season. Make his weapons benefit.
MD, I hear you but if that were 100% true the 9ers would have kept RPatton at RB and MShuman at WR. But they didn’t. They went out and got better talented players such as WTyler in FA and RCraig in the draft. Add JR in 1985 and now you’re talking talent. Skills and talent around him help make JMo the best ever QB.
It works both ways. Look at SY and the team he played with (inherited) versus JoMo (early on) and previously (before 2012) AS. Bay mentioned above that attitude of, “over my dead body”. But if you remember correctly, many were calling for Bono as the replacement and not SY. He (SY) tried so hard in the first few years in SF he often looked spastic (causing a turnover) and those that can remember will agree. I was a big SY fan and supported him when others were very unhappy he was replacing JoMo just before the trade to KC.
SY recovered nicely with an impressive overall career, but those first 2-3 years were nightmarish to say the least. Anyhow, looking forward to seeing the offense now with the upgrades and a sharper AS at the helm.
Young wasn’t successful in the USFL or in Tampa. Took him a good 7 or 8 years to accomplish anything.
Sooo… either he wasn’t good until Walsh got a hold of him, or wasn’t good because he didn’t have any talent around him, or…? I don’t know what, mechanics? Joseph Smith showed up with a divine miracle?
Dunno, but I always kinda giggle when Young gets a bit edgy on his high horse.
I prefer Joe’s take anyway, Steve talks too much. And Joe’s take sounds right to me: “Your offense sucks.”
About sums it up. All I need to know. :P
MD: Williams had a good year with Smith (minus the playoff debacle.) He had some nice grabs, a nice one or two I remember in the Cowboys game.
Here’s the problem we’ll find ourselves in. If Smith (and Co.) blow the doors off in 2012, then we know it’s coaching and/or talent and the owners didn’t learn much from Steve Young’s history. Or… Jim Plunkett’s or John Brodie’s, etc., etc.
The old saying about not learning from the past dooms you to repeat it will have merit.
We’ll see. If elite QBs were common everyone would have one. So we’ll see what happens with Smith’s “sophomore” year under Coach of the Year.
Adam
Did Joe say that to AS? “Your offense sucks.”
Oh it works both ways. No doubt, and Hof can anyone explain why Smith is still with this team? No Way. Hey thats another question Ill have for our Maker when I get up there one day. lol The NFL has always been a QB led league. The QB is the indisputed leader of a team, they touch the ball every posession, the navigate the offense, and they distribute the ball. Bottom line is. We wont know how good these weapons are if Smith doesnt show them off. He will and it will be to the yardage tune of 4001 . You got that Hof? lol
Good take Adam. All of these questions, opinions, and outlooks will all be reality in about 3 months. CAN’T WAIT!!!!
“Did Joe say that to AS? “Your offense sucks.”
JoMo said it to Keena Turner. Good read – ck it out on the internet.
md
“Can anybody explain why AS is still on the team?”
Yeah. Easy. JH. Believed in AS. AS led his team to start to learn the playbook despite not being on the team. Then led the team to 13-3 and the Title game playing a uge role in JH getting HC of the Year, which AS accepted.
All 100% true. Need any more truth why?
“Did Joe say that to AS? “Your offense sucks.””
There’s a report that he did tell Smith that however I believe the actual story is that he told Keena Turner that.
There are two stories, one is that the Niners were “consulting” Joe. The other is that Kenna Turner asked Joe for his opinion.
In any case, the video should still be up at CSN with Joe talking about the deficiencies and, “what do you want Alex to do?”
Joe’s an expert, he’s been there and done it. If he had problems with what he saw on film? I’ll bank on that being accurate without reservation.
Not to inflame the anti-Smith crowd or embolden the pro group but Matt’s interview was pretty interesting.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/pages/video?PID=hXWM2-gnhYunEbuMJYQ9n9BDDNHvLoxm6NRYLk
Ds….. Still want more huh? Wheew! First of all I know your a new smith fan since 09, but smith has been here for 8… No better yet EIGHT YEARS. And he should have been gone YEARS ago. Like every other below average qb for other teams. Let me splain this veeery sloooowly for you ds…. When smith sucked I wanted him gone, just like eeevry ooother player that sucked in the past and as recently as chili Rachel and kwame Harris. What I won’t do is sit here and look like a fool and say Alex smith led us to the playoffs last season, and I won’t say he was good before last season. I do however think that harbaugh will mold him into a “real” winner that will take us to the Super Bowl with HIS talents not just the fg kickers and defense. Does this sum it all up for you ds? Win or go elsewhere. That goes for any A’s, lakers and 49ers players. That’s the fan I am. Not a bleeding heart feel sorry for the poor little rich guys feelings fan. A lot of money I pay, and I want a good product. Ya dig?
md
I would like to converse with you, but your writing style is just too hard to understand, or so nonsensical that I don’t know what you are really saying and if I do, it is really really lacking in opinion based off of fact.
You know I was a Smith fan in the year now do you? What else do you KNOW about me?
Hint: None of you guys have remotely been close in anything you say you know about me.
@Adam
Nice link. But I looked up “Joe Montana talks offense” on the CSN search engine and found nothing.
So I typed in just “Joe Montana” and found it.
Some nice quotes from it:
“I can’t find anybody for him (AS) to throw the ball to.”
Wonder if that explains why he looked lost so much.
“Said Bill Walsh told him ‘When you throw the ball, there are 3 possibilities and 2 of the 3 are bad. And the further you go downfield, the greater the chances that those 2 things happen to you more than the one thing. So he (AS) is being ridiculed for not throwing the ball downfield, ridiculed for holding onto it, and is wondering where do I (AS) throw it?
Plus on top of that, change your job every year fro 6 years and see how good you are at it.”
Well, I guess we know who I am now. Joe Montana. Because I’ve said all those same things.
Note: May not have gotten every word perfectly during the transcript, but give me a break. This is a blog. Not FRONTLINE.
Link to the video Adam/hof and I am discussing if anybody wants to hear it for themselves.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/sportsnetBayArea/search/v/50671896/1-11-joe-montana-s-advice-for-alex-smith.htm?q=Joe+Montana
BS,
Who gives a darn who you are? How are we supposed to knownwhen you don’t even know? All I know is that you are as dumb as a box of rocks when it comes to Niner football. I do know that’s you’re rather Dense and you should be sleepy. Geez, you’re on here 24-7 clown!
Joe knows.
From the Chron last August:
Q: With all the changes for the 49ers, do you think this is the kind of offense that quarterback Alex Smith can thrive in, based on what you’ve seen? Do you think he will be more comfortable with the Harbaugh offense?
A: One of the things I’ve seen with Alex is that when he’s been put in bad position with down and distance, (there weren’t) many guys he could throw to without throwing 30 yards. There were times I looked and it’s 3rd-and-18 and now he’s got four guys going 20 to 30 yards downfield, so what do you want him to do? He’s either got to throw it into traffic or take a sack or throw it away, so none of them are very good options. This offense will give him an opportunity once he understands it. Guys who are used to holding onto the ball and throwing it deep sometimes have a tough time understanding and making that transition right away to, “Oh, it’s OK for me to gain 4 yards on first down.”
I want to know about boxing, I’ll listen to Ali, Frazier and Foreman. I want to know about playing QB? Joe’s the man.
Pre-2011: “3rd-and-18.” So many stupid penalties and bad plays. Thank Jebus *most* of that stuff is cleaned up. Still needs some work but it’s looking much better.
ever the welcher jordan shows up to say that JM is BS.
Everything you needed to know about him is right there.
Adam,
It starts with the coach. Harbaugh beat USC with Tavita Pritchard for crying out loud. The talent then takes it to the next level. That 2009 team was young and had a lot of guys that just joined the NFL as underclassmen.
Luck made that leap because he and the rest of the talent better understood the offense and things slowed down for them.
I see the same thing potentially happening here. The roster is talented, they all should understand the offense better and therefore Smith and the offense will be much more formidable.
+1
DS94everXev says:
June 7, 2012 at 1:45 pm
“You don’t see data comparisons between pro and amateur players ever.”
I see it on this blog all the time hof. I saw it 2 years ago when fans in the bay area wanted AL here in SF. I saw it last year when fans compared AS to AL with JH as their HC. We are seeing it now..where fans/writer are comparing AS to AL.
Of all the QB’s, AS may be the guy who gets compared to others the most. I wrote a post a ways back where I told Grant that if he gets a bonus check, he should really forward it to AS. Since AS gets him so much writing material and blog hits
Thats what happens when you play inconsistent football for so long on a franchise with a Rich QB History.
You realize that you agreed with me then, right md?
Twin Pine Casino Hotel.
Hoofer,
That is a classic!
MD,
Let me know if you need help disposing of the boft! Lol.
Oh look, 23welcher is back. By the way, I answered your questions on the OTA notes post. I also asked a few questions of my own. Not surprisingly, you have been ducking those questions for more than 24 hours.
How brave of you.
Sometimes “special” rises from adversity due to the persons’ determination, and desire to prove the naysayers, nonbelievers wrong. I believe Alex Smith is going to emerge from the pit of mediocrity with a metamorphosis that will surprise the experts.
Razor, good to see you back. I agree.
metamorphosis? Nice, I had not heard that word since college :)
You went to college? Who woulda thought
Haha, good one Smither
grants article begins to set the premise and then gives up finishing the article…just leaves it to the bloggers
comes back to how JH sets up the team from year one to year two…
what did stanford have year one vs niners year one
what upgrades did stanford make year one to year two vs what the niners did
stanford was a TE centric power team….appears this is what the niners were and JH saw the pieces in place when he made his decision to be coach…it was something familiar to him and he could hit the ground running even in a strike shortened season
front office has made an effort to bring impact weapons to the WR and RB positions……this is in fact to improve the 61% completion to maybe 65 and the YAC stat significantly……also the weapons are to improve 1st and 2nd down yardages so 3rd down success can be improved……so IMHO i do believe this offense can approach the 9 yd per attempt and if i was to make a wager i will say 8.9 but 8.4 seems a pretty significant improvement as well….
still need to be careful…..Moss seems great in touch practices and motivated (but is he more than a situational player … his conditioning will determine this) but AJenkins doesn’t and appears to be destined to be the unsuited game day player….crabtree apparently is feeling the best he has ever been and look forward to his slot routes which should help keep him from getting jammed at the line……manningham is a #3 rcvr with some highlights not unlike what AS provided last year…..gore is more injury prone than ever….brandon is a question mark but he has apparently taken his lack of power seriously and is espousing being a bruiser …….and the OL is still in question until the season gets a quarter of its way through…
I have more confidence in AS than i have ever had and am not concerned with putting the ball in his hands and running a potentially very dangerous offense….
JG is in the house. Welcome back and I like your take on this article!!
been here ever since i got back from argentina…..just well you know staying out of the fray…it seems insipid and counter productive….and i have my own shortcomings to improve upon like pitching ….
i can wait until the season begins because this is a great summer i don’t want to miss….
thanks for the shout out
Argentina has some great food. Did you bet a chance to eat and eat and then drink?
jg,
That’s a great, well thought out and crafted response!
seems like others (like adam) above were going down this path as well ….
They were jg, but you took it a bit further.
I cant believe some of the things you all debate about. . Ha. Whats next? The size of a mole on Alex Smiths ass? For christ sakes. Let the boy play. Ive always been a strong believer in coaching. Yah, u gotta have some talent, but the better the coach and teacher, the better the chances the player succeeds. I bet Alex comes out rockin this year! Bet? As far as most of u goes, have fun arguing over that mole. Geesh
Thx for joining in the debate. Funny how you read them , then complain, then post about it. Bravo! But your right Smith will come out “rockin” this year.
It’s the off-season; we’re bored. :P
Massage Envy Spa.
“I cant believe some of the things you all debate about. ”
What else?
It is AS. All the time. Only one thing Rick.
Its a break from all-Tebow on ESPN
@brotha
So, our football lives are forced into either AS or Tebow all day long?
That does suck. Need some hard liquor.
Miami sucks! OKC in 6. Whoever they play
From Barrows:
“One of the highlights of Tuesday’s practice was 293-pound Will Tukuafu catching a swing pass from quarterback Alex Smith and then racing inside linebacker Patrick Willis to the corner of the end zone for a touchdown.”
This is going to be really interesting. Great way to keep Tukuafu on the team.
Also looks like if any more OLBs go down, Bahktiari and Brown may have a real shot at making the team.
Interesting.
Nice segment on the NFL Network about the 3rd biggest draft mistake in 49ers franchise history (#1 was trading 2 #1s for OJ, #2 was Druckenmiller).
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/09000d5d82892c65/Dilemma-of-the-No-1-pick-Aaron-Rodgers
@msc
Compare and contrast that with what an actual expert in the game knows about QB’ing.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/sportsnetBayArea/search/v/50671896/1-11-joe-montana-s-advice-for-alex-smith.htm?q=Joe+Montana
Sorry msc. Joe knows. Joe knows more than the NFL network which uses hindsight to judge. Not the facts about what Joe found to be the case. I don’t think NFL network even looked at the film pre-JH to see what AS was dealing with compared to AR’s in GB. If they had, you in good conscious can’t conclude what they did.
Joe over anybody msc.
P.S. The title of the video has nothing to do with mistakes. It is Dilemma of the No. 1 pick: Aaron Rodgers. It is talking about AR’s being passed over by every team until GB at #22. Not AS.
Not until they say “In 2011, AS was cool, confident.”
Don’t know what you were talking about here with msc. But the video you show is not what you said.
@msclemons:
I just watched the video and didn’t see the part where anyone ranked the drafting of Smith as the 49ers’ third biggest draft mistake. Was that in a different video, or were you just editorializing?
That was my opinion Claude. Shared by Jerry Rice.
And DS – I know you Smithers cling to that Montana interview like a life saver but Joe never said at any point that Smith is any good. Joe just made excuses for Alex sucking.
So, JM is a Smither then, right?
After all, you can’t make “Alexcuses” without being a Smither, can you? If so, how does that work?
When did JR say anything at all about AS? Was JR in the video?
Also, JR is a WR. He knows WR’s. Not QB’s. Take JR’s advice on WR’s all day long. But I’ll take JM’s word about QB’s over just about anybody. Including JR.
@msc
See Adam’s post above
Adam says:
June 7, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Unless JM hated something from AS this year, I think it still applies.
“My whole life, I’ve never really moped around after a loss or this or that. But this is one that’s burned my ass the longest,” Smith told the San Jose Mercury-News. “I’m just like, ‘Man.’ It makes me that much more hungry.” Cowboy needs feeding. Can Mr. Rogers come out and play?
@Razoreater:
I just read the article. http://www.mercurynews.com/49ers/ci_20808637/san-francisco-49ers-notebook-justin-smith-hungry-new
I am so glad that Justin Smith is a 49er.
Justin Smith is The Bomb! Looking forward to Fangio dropping The Bomb on some offenses. Can’t wait!
Need a smile this morning? Just recall Justin’s hustle play where he pressed upfield, then turned and chased down the play and stripped the ball. Gawd!
Now go out and have a great day, Faithful!
That play by Mr. Smith was a game winner, but the overwhelming vision I get from this past season is where Mr. Smith was held and just willed his strength to push his opponent back into Mr. Brees where he reached around and grabbed him with one hand and brought him to the ground.
There is a reason why Justin is my fav current Niner player. Good to know the rest of the NFL world is taking notice of that which I have seen for a long time in SF now.
@DS,
I think you’re mixing up your Smiths.
Cowboy up!!!! J Smith is a beast. Wonder where he will place in the top 100 on nfl network
@md
Didn’t they do that already?
Wasn’t it #2? Behind only AR?
Not that I know of. I record it weekly and right now they are at 30-21.
Grant
Didn’t you post a reply once about Justin Smiths ranking according to something? Was it the NFL network?
md
They might be repeating the show.
@DS, ninermd:
ProfootballFocus.com ranked Smith No. 2 behind Rodgers.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/category/features/top-101-of-2011/
Thanks claude.
Grant, MM use to take down the site when it got nasty (even without 4 letter words). I know you don’t like playing babysitter but this is *your* site and it should be about football – not personal.
It is embarrassing. I don’t know what the answer is in terms of censorship. Maybe an e-mail reminder? A Time Out?
“It is embarrassing.”
Tuna, it’s ridiculous. This is a 9er blog. That’s why I enjoyed Adam’s reads this afternoon and miss the fact that Rocket didn’t post anything. It’s time for me to sharpen my proverbial pencil and post something football related. Tired on the negative personal banter!
I am with you guys.
If anyone of you take these insults seriously, get some therapy although you can tell Slime get’s upset if they talk about his Mommy.
My apologies for interrupting your blogging Hofer and Brotha. I will stop now.
hof/Grant
Ignore button.
If possible, one where Grant can see who is ignoring who. Make sure it is 2 ways. Most of this stuff happens because people read posts from others knowing they won’t like it.
All Grant has to do is ask people to use the ignore button on certain bloggers (ones who it is clear don’t get along). If they refuse, ban them. Nobody reads. No response. No “drama”.
Requires minimal “police” time from Grant, so he isn’t wasting time on it, but using that time to write better articles.
Or we keep doing what we’ve been doing because that has worked so well.
@DS:
Are you suggesting that Grant ban commenters who choose not to use an ignore button?
That level of thought control is beyond Orwellian.
Nobody reads. No response. No “drama”.
Seriously, stop.
If you want things to be different the worse thing you can do is keep things the same.
Some things are not meant to interact with others. To continue to deny that is foolish.
@DS:
Sorry, but that’s a load of crap. Objecting to thought control does not equal keeping things the same. Moreover, censoring people who don’t think the way you want them to is never an acceptable solution to any problem. There are other, far less sinister ways to address the problem.
Some things are not meant to interact with others. To continue to deny that is foolish.
Coming from you, that statement is jaw-droppingly ironic and totally devoid of self-awareness. You get into more heated disagreements with other commenters than anyone on this blog.
Then we can continue doing what we are doing but hold out hope it somehow will produce different results.
Good luck with that strategy.
I don’t see how it is restricting thought. It is restricting fights. If you are here to fight, there won’t be a place for you. If you are here to talk football, your posts will still show up. But with nobody to get you upset, there is no reason to get upset yourself. Thus you keep it on football. There are limits to free speech. Inciting others to fights is one of them.
And if you think that I am involved in so many, then that means I am quite the expert. And the expert says this would work relatively quickly. Avoid the advice of one who has the most experience or not.
Have a nice weekend claude.
All Grant has to do is ask people to use the ignore button on certain bloggers (ones who it is clear don’t get along). If they refuse, ban them. Nobody reads. No response. No “drama”. ds…….
Still trying to be a blog Sheriff. Ds why dont you make up your own blog and make your own rules? How about you ignore people and quit posting your non sense. Who told you that you were important on here anyways. Always trying to set rules and snitching like you own the blog. Here’s an idea. If you cant handle calling you out on your non sense. LEAVE! Its still a free country. Man your Pathetic. And Ill say it again, so Grant doesnt here it from you. YOU’RE PATHETIC! Get a Life!
Grant, take it down – all you need to do is remind these people that this is a football blog. Right??
Any of you guys hear about DJ Williams from Denver tweeting out a picture of a page in their defensive playbook? Shows all of their adjustments to formations and motions out of one of their sets.
And we complain about AD’s tweeting : )
Which long shot do you think has the best chance of making the 53 man roster?
Konrad Rueland
Chris Owusu
Eric Bakhtiari
Anthony Dixon
Michael Thomas
konrad rueland will catch 25 to 30 balls this yr imho
I agree on Rueland goldcoach. I also think Thomas is really going to push for one of the safety spots. His knowledge of the system already puts him ahead of the other guys. It is going to be interesting watching that one unfold.
@Jack:
With the lack of healthy depth at OLB, I vote for Bakhtiari.
Plus, he has the coolest sounding name.
Claude,
Plus the guy has awesome hair.
@Jack:
So, it’s settled. Bakhtiari makes the team. Do you want to tell Harbaugh, or should I?
Whoa, slow your horses there Claude. Just because I agree his name and hair are cool doesn’t mean I agree.
What do you think about Rueland beating out Byham, or Thomas sneaking in?
AS’s improvement in his 2nd yr with JH will be tied closely to the improvement of the O line davis needs to step up his game who ever starts at right guard has to be a big improvement over snyder both in pass and run blocking. if there is a big improvement in the O line play then AS will also make a big improvement but thats true for every team in america for the most part games r won in the trenches not at the qb spot
Lord, do we need football in a bad way!
C’mon blog family, we set the rules a couple of years ago that family members were off limits. I vaguely recall an incident about two years ago where a blogger made a reference about another posters mom, only to find out that the posters mom had recently passed away.
Not good, and I know raider fans that will not cross that line with me.
Enough said, have a good weekend.
I think you should forward this to bay who started all this Mom nonsense and the two idiots Neal and Hack have taken it to another level.
It always starts with the hater crowd, somebody tell me I’m wrong!
And you are certainly a Lover Slime Fatnich. being AS bioch. lol oh yea, your fuming little boy
12-0 Neal, team bioch looks to be done! Fuming? I’m winning and you can’t stop being stupid, story of your life Fitzbob!
Prime Rib,
I won’t speak for Neal, but you started it with me a few days ago when you started calling me a hater over a comment I made to Grant regarding the top 5 play calls of 2011.
There’s your answer dumba$$, two days ago and your bringing the fight 2 days later? Yeah you are my bioch and a sour clown to jump on it after 2 days.
Grow up!
Prime your wrong. It started and starts with onelame.
……its natural for you to bring your master in the convo…..good job my b……..!!!
claude balls says:
June 8, 2012 at 8:38 pm
@DS:
Sorry, but that’s a load of crap. Objecting to thought control does not equal keeping things the same. Moreover, censoring people who don’t think the way you want them to is never an acceptable solution to any problem. There are other, far less sinister ways to address the problem.
Some things are not meant to interact with others. To continue to deny that is foolish.
Coming from you, that statement is jaw-droppingly ironic and totally devoid of self-awareness. You get into more heated disagreements with other commenters than anyone on this blog
BEST POST by Claude ever. The nerve of this “it” “IT” Acts like “it’s” the owner of the blog. DS= Dictating Snitch Pathetic
What about the kid he coached at SD?..Similar?
Stan and Neal are going global! You two are legends in your own minds!
Whaaa? You mean you weren’t sincere about my geniusosity?
Super Stan please excuse my faux pas. You ARE a GENIUS, and it should have read, Stan and Neal are legends. We should all feel privileged to share this blog with them.
No worries Jack, you can certainly join our group, legends in our own minds too.
Thanks Neal, I would be honored!
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/10/harbaughs-comments-on-manning-now-a-running-joke-in-league-circles/
It should be looked at as a joke Tim.