Although many of you disagree with Football Outsiders projections for the upcoming season, their 2012 almanac has some interesting stats from last season I’d like to share with you.
- “Alex Smith was out of the pocket on 19 percent of pass plays, fifth in the league, and was pretty bad on these plays, with just 4.4 yards per play and -25.1% DVOA.”
What this means to me: Quarterbacks usually ad-lib when they leave the pocket, and Smith is not a good ad-libber. He’s much better when he can use the play-action and pass to his first read from the pocket.
- “San Francisco based their play-action passing game on pulling athletic left guard Mike Iupati, which, aside from contributing to a 40-percentage point increase in play-action DVOA, had the added benefit of providing help for right tackle Anthony Davis.”
What this means to me: The Niners were a good play-action passing offense last season. It was their bread and butter. So it’s important for the Niners to have a good rushing attack next season because their passing attack depends on it.
- “Regardless of the positive protection changes, the 49ers still ranked in the bottom eight of Adjusted Sack Rate, Anthony Davis “improved” to 8.5 blown-block sacks (sixth-most in the league), and San Francisco’s interior line never figured out how to handle inside blitzes.”
What this means to me: Right guard and right tackle were weaknesses for the Niners offense last season. Now they have a new right guard, Alex Boone, but he’s never actually played guard before. If the Niners are going to improve their pass protection, it’s imperative that Boone and Davis play well. Of course, Iupati, Joe Staley and Jonathan Goodwin must stay healthy as well.
- “The 49ers defense struggled when they dropped eight into coverage, allowing two more yards per pass than they did otherwise.”
What this means to me: NFL offenses need to look for some kind of advantage against the Niners top-notch defense, so they’ll look for this. They’ll spread the Niners out and force them to play lots of defensive backs – six or more.
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These stats are always interesting. I do think teams will spread the ball out vs the Niners this year, it’s really the only way to attack them. If the offense can build a lead early in games, it will allow the defense to attack and force turnovers. Can’t wait for the season to start.
I hate 3 man rush and always have. It doesn’t matter how many DB’s are on the field; if a QB has all day to throw, he’ll find somebody. The Niners got burned doing this in the Championship game as Grant pointed out, and it was a huge turning point in the game. An offense should never convert a 3rd and 15 nevermind get a TD. The only reason they did is because the Niners overthought it and went away from what they do best. The strength of this defense are it’s run stopping ability and Nickel on 3rd down.
There’s no doubt they will face spread formations and more passing this season because most teams give up trying to run on them pretty early on, but they have to stick with their strengths which on passing downs is JS, RM, AB and AS rushing from a 4 man line, Willis and Bowman in the middle and 5 DB’s with Rogers covering the slot. The only time they run into trouble is when they get too cute. This defensive alignment will win a lot more than they lose.
Couldn’t agree more with your Take,
I’m a strong believer in doing whatever it takes to get the opposing QB on the ground before he has time to survey the field to find a Target. By just rushing four 9er Lineman with an occasional LB blitz this puts alot more pressure on the QB then being safe with the Dime Package.
@Rocket – Ditto. 3 man rush drives me nuts.
Good stats. That last one’s got to be troubling with how pass-oriented the NFL is now.
Didn’t we real in aldon n The rest Of our pass rush too for some reason? Looked like a funky prevent D
“The 49ers defense struggled when they dropped eight into coverage, allowing two more yards per pass than they did otherwise.”
I’m struggling to understand when/why a defense would employ 8 man coverage? Even if you double team the X you’re at most devoting 6 men to coverage. Once you use up the obligatory 5 offensive lineman and the QB you only have 5 players that can potentially catch a pass excluding a receiver eligible tackle. In 8 man coverage you are double teaming almost every receiver, is our coverage so bad that we actually give up more yards when nearly every receiver is double teamed?
Clearly I’m not understanding that statement correctly.
Guess I found my own answer:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8264a356/printable/clutch-play-on-thirdandlong-helped-giants-reach-super-bowl “When Manning threw a go-ahead, fourth-quarter touchdown pass to Manningham in the NFC Championship Game, the Giants were facing third-and-15.
The 49ers rushed three and dropped eight into coverage, leaving no one to pressure Manning. Because of the eight-man coverage, there weren’t many open targets or windows through which to throw a pass. Nicks, Cruz and tight end Jake Ballard were all well-covered. But all Manning needed was one option.
Manning calmly stood in a well-formed pocket and delivered a strike into the weakness of the defense, with Manningham breaking to the inside against a deep-third, outside-leveraged defender. The play put the Giants up 17-14. It was an excellent call and executed perfectly by New York.”
Well I guess I figured that 8 man coverage would be overkill but clearly it’s not even when executed almost perfectly.
Dropping 8 men into coverage refers to only rushing 3 players. Thus dropping all linebackers into coverage for a 3-4 team. The 49ers played quiet a bit of zone last year thus may have dropped 8 men more than other teams. hopes this helps to clear it up for you.
I understand the concept of it I was just surprised by the use of it. Seemed upon first thought to be overkill and not something that would be done often enough to worry about the extra 2 yards per play it would surrender but upon further review it’s much more commonly used then I realized.
8 in coverage = rushing only the 3 DL. I think the solution is to bring someone else, a DB or LB. The key is to disguise where the additional pressure is going to come from.
Since disguise (and therefore surprise) is the key in a 3-4 as to who’s rushing, one occasional surprise is to just rush 3 and try to fill the throwing lanes. Its best employed inside our own 30 but can be any combination of zone & man. Against a very mobile qb, you can rush 3 + spy one; and the spy may be given the option to shoot now & then. A delayed blitz can sometimes flummox the OL. Its just one arrow in the quiver.
Yes on the Spy,
And if you have a Safety or LB that is an effective Blitzer the better.
Case in point look at how well the Steelers disguise their Blitz Packages?
Against some opponents the OL doesn’t know who’s coming & they get more confused as the game goes on.
@petaluman:
Yes, if the 49ers could bring a 4th pass rusher while still keeping 8 in coverage, it would solve a lot of problems for the defense.
Especially if the 4th pass rusher comes at the QB from the 49ers’ sideline. The offense would never expect that.
..lol…
HA!
Alex Smith could be better. Check.
We should have tried to sign Peyton Manning.
Mike Iupati is good. Check.
We knew that, right?
Anthony Davis is bad but improving. Check.
We knew that, right?
“The 49ers defense struggled…” No check.
“Struggled” is too strong of a word. Best defense in NFL and all are returning.
If you’d like to NOT purchase the 2012 Football Outsiders Almanac, click here. Click.
They caused 5 turnovers vs the Saints and still gave up 32 points. I thought they played very well for the most part in that game, but they are susceptible to very good aerial attacks. I expect teams to spread the ball out and attempt shorter passes vs the Niners this season. There isn’t much of a point to running the ball against them.
The Saints were scoring on everyone when they get hot.
The only way to stop a superb passing offense is to hit the quarterback until he is no longer effective. And that is usually easier said than done.
Just as important, you have to be able to score with them. We did against the Saints, at least in the 4th quarter, and that is why we won.
Historical reference: Super Bowl XIX, after the ’84 season. Marino was running maybe the best passing offense EVER (needed to, as they had no running game and no real defense).
First quarter, Marino moves the ball as we played coverage.
Second quarter on, we play nickel, and Fred Dean, Big Hands Jonson and Dwayne Board beat the snot out of him. Meanwhile, Montana puts on a passing display of his own.
End result, 49ers win easily.
The biggest problems the defense had in the Saint game were the big plays. That had played them beautifully up until the last few minutes of the game. Then Goldson whiffs on Sproles on a quick pass out of the backfield and he goes for a TD. The next drive Brees throws a perfect pass to the TE who has Willis all over him, Whitner goes for the pick and misses and it results in a big play for a TD. Same thing happened in the Cards and Cowboys games. The defense gave up big plays that were costly and decided the outcome of the game. If they can cut that out this season, they could be one of the all time great defenses we’ve ever seen with the talent they have.
They are a great defense, but the Saints game is the perfect example of how they are vulnerable to elite passing offenses. There is only so much you can do to stop them. The Saints took the lead late in the game after commiting five turnovers because they are relentless. If they only turn the ball over four times, they probably win that game. I said before the playoff game vs the Saints that the Niners would have to score over 30 because I felt that N.O. would put up points, and they did. The fact that they scored 32 points after turning the ball over so many times is the concern.
BigP,
The Saints have one of the all time great pass offenses so I understand that the defense is going to give up yards and points. What bothered me is the mental and physical errors that allowed the Saints to score two late TD’s. That shouldn’t happen to a defense of this caliber.
Rocket,
I hear you. I just look at it like as if you have to outscore teams like that. It’s very difficult to shut them down. I fully expected a shootout vs the Saints. The fact that the Saints had five turnovers and the Niners had to come from behind twice blows my mind, but the point total didn’t.
A few thoughts…
Anthony Davis is only 22, a baby for an O-linemen. He’s younger then alot of rookies. If the 49ers find stability at Right Guard , I’m looking at noticable improvement in Davis’s play. Davis may never live up to his draft status, but he will be solid for years to come.
(For what it’s woth, I loved the Chilo pick. haha)
Over the years I have seen pretty swful play from Smith out of the pocket. How many times have we seen AS run right, then chuck the ball at the feet of (sometimes covered) receivers? But AS is improving, and some of last year’s low passing percentage could be by design, with Harbaugh instructing Smith to avoid risky throws.
Smart for teams to attack the 49ers with nultiple WR sets. Takes one of the 49ers two great MLBs off the field.
The the biggest risk to the 2012 season is lack of established depth at OLB.
The 49ers had hopes in Darius Fleming and Cam Johnson, but with Fleming’s torn ACL, that leaves the 49ers with 7th rounder Cam Johnson as the 4th OLB. Lets hope he’s a diamond in the rough. I’m betting Fangio is installing more blitz packages.
I too would like to see more pressure. Where is the pressure defense Fangio was said to be compared to like the Green Bay defense?
I’m not sure what the stats are, but as I recall we were one of the more conservative teams in terms of blitzing in the league. That’s fine if you reach the QB, but we certainly could have done better at that.
It also says to me we had less confidence is either the coverage or our ability to get to the QB. It certainly did seem the few times I noticed us blitzing, it didn’t seem like it improved our chances of getting to the QB any faster.
Yes on more Blitz Packages,
Let’s not forget that the 49er Coaching Staff did not have time to fully install the Whole Playbook because of the Lockout so I expect Don Fangio to have all his Blitz Packages at his disposal this year.
I can recall PW saying in the OTA’s that “He didn’t know we could do this?” on a particular scrimmage play.
I too have high hopes and expectations for Cam Johnson, but he’s learning a new position (even as a situational guy) and we’ll have to see how fast he develops. Barring injuries, we may not see too much of him until next year.
All he has to do is go get the QB like Aldon did last year.
I think the offense as a whole was hit or miss at improvising. Though part of the blame could be attributed to Alex, the running backs and especially the receivers need to learn to recognize busted plays and find open spaces for Alex to throw.
Alex Smith rarely got past his hot read. I am sure that has a lot to do with the protection and the lack thereof. I don’t expect more weapons to improve the “shell-shock” syndrome he’s been aflicted with the last 7 years.
I think it will equate to more open receivers he is just going to miss or not see. Either they make Randy Moss the 1st read, unlikely, or they replace Smith by week 4(even more unlikely). Randy Moss won’t stand for being missed when he’s open. He doesn’t have the mental fortitude to overcome a mistake by the key to his bonus check.
The team organization got what they paid for out of Moss even if he doesn’t contribute on offense. He put Crabtree on notice. He gave confidence to the fan base. He sold season tickets. All for $1.75 million in advertizing.
I am not taking a shot at Alex Smith by any means. I think the kid’s will to win is unfathomable. While the fans have quit on him and the coaches have quit on him, he’s never quit on trying to win games for this team. I hope he succeeds. I hope he shows all of us why he was the number overal pick. I just don’t think that will happen this year.
Hey that’s fine & that’s your opinion about Alex.
I see it completely different.
Having a full Off-Season Program
Having another year under the same System
Upgrade & Improvement at RG & RT
More Weapons
And to me all those things I just mentioned equates to more Scoring which leads to W’s. Look forward to seeing it come to fruition.
f49er,
what does that have to do with Alex creating on his own?
I think what Grant is saying in his write up is that Alex runs a play the way it was written up. The second that play breaks down, he is not very successful at creating on his own. History shows that this is correct. He is not good at ad libbing.
Lucky for Alex he has a coach that creates mismatches and wrinkles that allow his first read to get open. And if the first read doesn’t get open, then we kick two field goals, let our defense win the turnover battle and we win a close game. That scenario by the way is how we won most of our games. And it is also why it left so many fans wanting so much more from our passing game….
Yeah bay, the fans that want entertainment value, you know the ones who want fantasy football numbers in relation to the passing game.
The rest of us just dont care, all we want is wins any way we can get them!
@FDM/bay:
What I want to know is how much ad-libbing is done by the high volume passing offenses that bay craves.
The second that play breaks down, he is not very successful at creating on his own. History shows that this is correct. He is not good at ad libbing.
Apparently, bay has been charting games over the years and not sharing the data with anyone else.
I also love how bay thinks that the defense is solely responsible for winning the turnover battle. The offense apparently has nothing to do with it.
But bay doesn’t have an agenda. He is merely an objective observer.
Your right Claude, bayarea does not have an agenda, his only concern is seeing an aerial attack of passing like yester years of the likes of June Jones run and shoot in Atlanta and the greatest show on turf St. Louis Rams.
The big play, downfield assault is what he wants his team to look like. Good news for him is that there are 31 other teams he can choose from cause the Niners are not or will never be that team under Baalke/Harbaugh.
You guys kill me. FDM, of course you would go with an extreme example to try to explain what I would like to see.
I don’t need air Coryell, or Dan Marino or Jeff George and his run and shoot, or Warner and the greatest show on turf.
I also don’t need a career 30th rank in third down percentage and near dead last in TD and yardage production year after year. And if you were true Niner fans, that wouldn’t sit well with you either.
It must get confusing to some of you guys in terms of your loyalty. Especially the ones with an agenda. The type that favors a player more than they favor a team.
My description in my above post was not a slam. It was a description of the type of play that is typical of Smith and that the “Smither’s” defend.
No need for raw data to prove it Claude. You see the games. If Smith was better at Ad-libbing, his third down percentages would be better at least. And if he was better at ad-libbing, his offensive line wouldn’t get tagged with as many sacks.
No need to respond, I know you probably won’t agree.
Your right, there is never a sufficient reply to any of your opinions because they are beyond left field, acaaully the universe.
Its all about winning in the NFL and obviously that was not enough for you last year after 8 seasons of under.500 football and the Niners.
Smith play was fine with me beause it resulted in helping us get to 13 wins, a divison title and 2 fumbles away from the SB. You will say it was the defense and ST and I say, BURPPPPP!! Excuse me.
If winning isnt enough and you want style points or think Alex is holding the Niners back, I say, nothing, other than winning is all that matters!
@bay:
It’s not about whether or not I agree with you. It’s about you repeatedly making sh!t up to defend/support your opinion. Smith panics in the pocket; he has no poise; the game’s too big for him; he only looks at one read before taking off; he cannot ad-lib; he doesn’t have that killer instinct; [and my favorite] when I look at him from the stands, I don’t see any fire in his eyes.
Did I miss any of your observations?
If Smith was better at Ad-libbing, his third down percentages would be better at least. And if he was better at ad-libbing, his offensive line wouldn’t get tagged with as many sacks.
What you wrote there is a meaningless tautology it’s true for every QB in the league. Every QB’s third down percentages would go up and sacks would go down, if he were better at ad-libbing.
What you mean, without having any data to support the assertions, is (1) that Smith is below average in his ability to ad-lib and (2) that his inability to ad-lib is a primary cause of the poor third down numbers and large number of sacks.
No need for raw data to prove it Claude.
Of course not. Your objective, non-agenda-driven observation is more than enough to establish it as a proven fact.
I don’t like sacks or throwing the ball into the stands while running to his right, but I prefer them to turnovers. I want to see improvement on 3rd down and in the redzone which falls on Smith’s shoulders, but it also falls on the Oline. The middle of the Oline has got to do a better job of keeping the pocket clean. Smith gets flushed from the pocket because there is nowhere to step up. That has to improve and if it does, I think Smith’s numbers will improve as a result.
Claude,
you are a hypocrite. My opinion is just that, my opinion. You also have no data to prove your stance is any more factual than mine. You have your observation, I have mine.
What I can tell you is this, when decent QB’s. Top 10 QB’s break the pocket, buy a bit more time, they make a defense pay.
I rarely see Smith do this. He breaks the pocket and one of four things happen. He rolls out of bounds, throws a pass out of bounds, takes a sack or checks down short of the yard marker. This is what average QB’s do. And yes I know Smith is average. Problem is, when the Smith fans hear this, they come to his defense like it’s no one’s business. So who is really being unrealistic? Lombardi has it right. Cosell has it right. Yet after they write their professional observations, the Smithers come up in arms. Quite funny actually. The defense of mediocrity.
No big deal. Like FDM said, who cares. Don’t critique the guy. Ignore it and be happy we are winning since we’ve lost for so long.
Rocket,
I have a lot of respect for your responses. I have to disagree. The Oline wasn’t the best. Far from the worst too though. Go watch the NFC championship game again. Smith regularly bailed out of clean pockets that game.
Not here nor there. We all know he as well as other parts of the offense need to step it up. I’m just exhausted of hearing the defense of a mediocre average QB…..
@FDM
Forget trying to explain it. If AS didn’t mean anything to the teams succes last year, the Niners don’t even consider signing him again. After all. If any QB can do what AS did, just let any QB have the job. Pay the minimum, and use the extra cash to ensure our elite ST/D remain intact.
We all know the answer. All, but a few anyway.
DS says, “Pay the minimum, and use the extra cash to ensure our elite ST/D remain intact.” That’s pretty close to what they did..
Jack, you dont give a guy a three year deal over 24 million just to get by. Harbaugh would not hitch his wagon to Smith if he didnt think he could win with him.
Why is so hard for you to believe that that the 49ers organization really believes in Alex Smith?
jack
Is your life so without meaning that you have to read a persons comments who
1. Told you not to
2. Told you to stop replying to my material
3. You just aren’t smart enough to understand what “No” means. Or what “clutch” means. Or what “he’s our guy” means.
@ Jack: “Pay the minimum, and use the extra cash to ensure our elite ST/D remain intact.”
Go look at our cap figures for 2013 on Maiaocco’s site,the Niners are being fiscally repsonsible, dont make this out to be another Alex Smith slight.
@FDM
Minimum salary for an NFL player in his 8t year is:
7-9 year – $825,000
AS got more than 10x that much.
So either Jack is as bad with math as he is with his football skills/knowledge/predictions, or the Niners are very stupid paying 10x the amount they should for a minimum salary player. Minimum salary is no $8 million a year for 3 years. It is $825,000 for 1 year.
I’m hedging on the first explanation. The Niners are not stupid. The Niners would not get into a bidding war for PM who wanted more money than any team but 1 would pay for his services.
FDM,
It’s a series of one year deals that add up to $24m, and makes great fiscal sense for the team. He is the best option for the team in 2012. If he isn’t in 2013 they can walk away and only take a $1m cap hit (per Maiocco).
My comment was not meant as a slight on Smith, rather to say that what DS suggests is exactly what they did. They paid the least amount possible for the guy who they feels gives them the best chance to win.
Bay,
We’ll have to agree to disagree then. The weakness in the middle of the Oline has really jumped out at me in the games I’ve rewatched. So often the pocket got squeezed and sometimes it didn’t even develop and that has to change. I didn’t realize how bad it was while watching the games live, but now that I’m focusing on certain aspects when watching them I’m seeing some glaring problems like this.
That’s not to say Smith is not accountable for some of the problems. There were definitely times he bailed because he felt pressure that wasn’t there, but far too often the middle of our Oline was getting pushed back and quickly.
And thank you for the kind words.
Jack, the least amount possible does not equate to 8 million a year.The least amount possible to me means 1 year deal, league minimum like DS said at $825,000 and no 2nd year option. One year and one year only and no team or player option to extend til after the season.
If were playing semantics thats the definition of “least” to me. If your trying to show that the Niners dont value Smith well your arguement holds zero value.
FDM,
Get this through your thick skull, I am not trying to slight Smith. His contract makes great sense for the team because it allowed them to keep the best QB available once Manning chose Denver, while also keeping the defense intact.
DS made the comment that they could have gone with a low priced QB and kept the D together. That’s what they did.
The point of my comment was simply to point out that what he said is pretty much what they did, league minimum…no, lowest amount possible for a serviceable QB…yes.
@FDM
Actually it also means minimum for a rookie. And any QB includes all rookies. So the team saves about another 500k or so to keep our other more important players around. And when he is due a raise, dump him and get a new rookie and repeat indefinitely.
DS,
Didn’t they re-sign all of the starters on the defense?
Of course Smith was the best option (once Manning chose Denver), and they got him relatively cheap compared to other starting QB’s.
Jack serviceable QB’s in the NFL do not make $8 million dollars a year.
Seneca Wallace $3 million-serviceable.
T.J Yates $350,00- serviceable
John Beck $1.3 million-serviceable
Bruce Gradkowski $1.8 million-serviceable
Troy Smith $525, 000-garbage!
Kyle Orton $900,00-journeymen
Jason Campbell $1.5 million
I could go and list a whole bunch more but do you you think these guys and their “serviceability could have gotten the Niners within 2 fumbles from the SB?
FDM, this is the thinking and mentality of morons like Jack and the haters. They think the 49ers could plug in Elton John behind centre and win 13 games.
Jack you don’t know the NFL game if you think serviceable QB’s can win 14 games
C’mon guys you are arguing semantics. Jack is sayinng Smith is at the lower end of the starting QB wage scale and he’s right. He also said Smith was the best option. What’s the problem?
FDM,
Those are all backups. Dang, you two have a difficult time with reading comprehension. I never said they could plug just anyone in at QB.
I simply stated that they did re-sign all of their starters, and got a great deal for the best QB available once Manning went to Denver. How hard OS that to understand?
Rocket if you cant see that jack is trying to insinuate the niners went cheap and that using the term serviceable as a description of smith is not a way to insult him then your as dumb, if not dumber than all the haters
Latino,
I understand that English is a second language for you, but there is nothing I have said that should bother you.
They signed Smith, and his contract which is in the bottom 50% of all starting QB’s allowed them to re-sign all of the starters on defense which was key. It’s not my fault that Smith’s market value is what it is.
If you don’t like it, take it up with all of the NFL GM’s.
Rocket if you cant see that jack is trying to insinuate the niners went cheap and that using the term serviceable as a description of smith is not a way to insult him then
your
as dumb, if not dumber than all the haters
I think you mean “you are” or “you’re” as opposed to “your.” You may think I’m dumb, but I know the difference between a Contraction and Possessive Adjective.
As to the matter of what Jack insinuated: he clearly stated that Smith was a cheaper option as a starting QB – which he is; and he also said he is the best option – which he is. So again I ask you: what is the problem?
Prime Time says:
July 18, 2012 at 2:46 pm
FDM, this is the thinking and mentality of morons like Jack and the haters. They think the 49ers could plug in Elton John behind centre and win 13 games.
Jack you don’t know the NFL game if you think serviceable QB’s can win 14 games
Hey. Any Man that can write and sing Crocodile Rock could probably play qb too. E John could probably kick Chuck Norris’ a**. Dude is a beast! ;-)
md,
No one could complain about EJ’s ARM strength. Dude has a Rocket Man…
@bay:
You really think that I present my opinions, observations and arguments the same way that you do? Really? From where I sit, you present your observations as conclusively established facts. It also doesn’t appear that you test your subjective observations against any objective data. Finally, you set your opinions in concrete, dismiss all facts that are inconsistent with them and attack everyone who doesn’t agree with you by accusing them of not being objective or of not being “real” fans of the team.
I don’t think you can accurately describe my comments similarly.
I’m just exhausted of hearing the defense of a mediocre average QB…..
Not nearly as exhausted as we are of hearing you reflexively bash a better-than-average QB with unsupported nonsense based upon an opinion you formed during the Nolan-Singletary era. No one’s defending Smith; after last year, he doesn’t need defending. We’re simply objecting to your unwarranted attacks on the QB of the team we root for and you say you root for.
Alex Smith posted the 9th best passer rating in the league last year. [Note the citation to relevant verifiable data] That’s the NFL’s official statistic for measuring QB performance, and it takes into account completion %, yards/attempt, TDs/attempt, and interceptions/attempt. [Note the citation to verifiable data] Moreover, a high passer rating seems to correlate pretty well with winning. 9 of the top 10 rated passers went to the playoffs. [Note the citation to relevant verifiable data] FWIW, Rodgers, Brees and Brady finished 1, 2, and 3 in passer rating. [Note the citation to relevant verifiable data] But does Smith’s relatively high passer rating give you any pause before you throw out your “mediocre average QB” epithet? Of course not, for all of the reasons explained above.
In addition to finishing with an above-average passer rating, Smith played relatively mistake-free football last year. He threw only 5 interceptions and lost only 4 fumbles. [Note the citation to relevant verifiable data] As a result, he rarely, if ever, put his defense in the position of having to defend a short field, the 49ers regularly won the field position battle, and the team finished with the 6th best average time of possession. [Note the citation to relevant verifiable data]
More importantly, the team finished 14-4 and came within a Kyle Williams’ brain fart of going to the Super Bowl. Of course, you said all season that the team could not win with Smith as QB, that Smith couldn’t beat good teams, that the 49ers couldn’t keep up with teams like the Saints, and a bunch of other confident predictions that turned out to be incorrect.
Being that wrong that often would teach most people some humility. Or at least cause them to re-examine their positions. But not you. You’re still here claiming to know better than everybody else and throwing out still more unsupported observations.
PS – As for your assertion that the offensive line “was far from the worst in the league,” your subjective observations are once again not supported by any objective measurement. According to FO, the 2011 offensive line ranked 21st in run blocking (29th in power run blocking) and 25th in pass blocking. It also gave up quick sacks at almost twice the league average. Both Goodwin and Snyder ranked in the bottom 5 of their respective positions in PFF’s pass blocking efficiency measurement. No member of the line finished in the top 10 at his position, and neither tackle finished in the top 20. [Note the citation to relevant verifiable data] I know of no objective measurements that would support a claim that the line was “far from the worst,” although that is a somewhat vague term.
““Alex Smith was out of the pocket on 19 percent of pass plays, fifth in the league, and was pretty bad on these plays, with just 4.4 yards per play and -25.1% DVOA.”
What this means to me: Quarterbacks usually ad-lib when they leave the pocket, and Smith is not a good ad-libber. He’s much better when he can use the play-action and pass to his first read from the pocket.”
What this means to me: It doesn’t matter if you can ad-lib or not. If you are 5th in the league at getting flushed from the pocket while being last in passes attempted, you’re going to be pretty bad.
Someone’s paying attention.
….Good point Mason….
On a previous topic thread Claude put up some numbers that showed the RG and C performance from our Oline last year was poor. In games I’ve rewatched this offseason, a disproportionate amount of the pass rush pressure Alex Smith faced came from the middle of the pocket. If a QB cannot step up and throw the ball, he’s either throwing it away or taking a sack. There’s a reason Smith took so many sacks, and it’s not all because he was afraid to pull the trigger. The Oline has to do a better job of pushing people to the outside so Smith can step up and throw the ball. When he gets flushed outside, there’s nowhere to go with the ball which is why the success percentage is so low. Give him better protection and I think we’ll see better results.
Also…enter the off season moves into play. You say he had nowhere to throw? Why not? busted plays are the best time to get receivers open, but clearly we didn’t have the horses to get open.
Even Vernon, as fast as he is, isn’t good and lateral movement or cutting, so if his route has burned out, you can pretty much forget getting the ball to him and Crabs wasn’t going to shake anyone, so…we had limited options.
Let’s see if we can improve protection and the availability of WRs on these busted plays this year.
He didn’t say Smith was flushed out of the pocket on 19% of his pass plays, he said he was out of the pocket on 19% of his passing plays. They do incorporate roll outs to take advantage of his mobility.
Talk to Grant. He equated being out of the pocket with having to “ad-lib.” Designed roll outs don’t involve ad-libbing.
BigP,
True, but there were not many designed rollouts last season. It was mainly playaction and drop backs for the passing game. They should incorporate more bootlegs this season as that is a good way to slow down the pass rush.
As Claude pointed out earlier with Bay, it appears that Rocket has been charting the plays and not sharing with the group.
You never asked Jack.
Rocket,
Do you have a link? I would be interested in checking it out. I ordered the coaches film this year, so it will be pretty cool to get a different look at the plays compared to television.
Please share Rocket. Would love to see them.
Strictly observations on my part folks. No intention of misleading anyone otherwise. I have no official data to back it up.
As I’ve mentioned lately, I’ve rewatched a number of games and have been looking at things like playcalling in certain situations, how much time the QB had to throw, where the breakdowns came on the Oline etc.
What I do not see a lot of is designed rollouts and bootlegs. Now I don’t know how the Niners compared to the rest of the league in this area, but when I watch the games I see straight dropbacks and the half boot on playaction used to throw the deep ball most of the time. The few times I saw designed rollouts called, it usually was a run play for Smith as he didn’t even try to throw the ball.
I’d like to see more playcalls that get Smith outside the pocket by design. I still remember this being something Norv Turner did with him quite often and was quite effective most of the time. They need to take advantage of Smith’s athleticism a little more. He’s not a classic drop back QB.
@Grant
“Quarterbacks usually ad-lib when they leave the pocket, and Smith is not a good ad-libber. He’s much better when he can use the play-action and pass to his first read from the pocket.”
No. Most of the time when the QB’s leave the QB, it is because several guys who weigh over 300 lbs and hate you more than anybody on earth is trying to rip your head off, and you are trying to escape them.
Your memory is vastly different from mine Grant. I remember a lot of times AS left the pocket, threw a pass that was catchable, and the WR dropped it, or didn’t run the right way. Yet the QB gets the blame for it. One in particular was to DW. AS rolled left, evaded a bunch of defenders on a non-call roll out, and tossed it some 40+ odd yards to DW, who slipped while the ball was in the air in the endzone. Had he not slipped, it would have been a TD. And AS has always been pretty good/great in pressure moments (comeback/end of games/halves) where things are not settled down. If anything, he has excelled at that more than the normal pace of the game. AS is better when the pressure is on (see VD TD at end of Saints game).
And, you should ask the Saints and Giants about AS when he rolls out. He did plenty of damage. Both ad-lib and designed roll outs to make them think twice about doing it again.
You don’t mention that the Niner playmakers are not great ad-lib playmakers either. Who on their team is? MC isn’t. VD is more straight line speed guy. FG has been horrible out of the backfield the past few years. Ted Ginn dropped a perfectly thrown pass on 4th and forever against the Ravens ending any hopes of a comeback. Morgan was out of the season early.
Look at the QB’s who you call good ad-libers and I betcha they have one or more other teammates who are also good at getting open when the play breaks down. A QB can’t throw the ball to himself. He needs the other guy to show up and give him a lifeline. Which they rarely did. And when they did, there was often some stupid penalty or the pass was dropped.
“The 49ers defense struggled when they dropped eight into coverage, allowing two more yards per pass than they did otherwise.”
What this means to me: NFL offenses need to look for some kind of advantage against the Niners top-notch defense, so they’ll look for this. They’ll spread the Niners out and force them to play lots of defensive backs – six or more”
Or it means that the game was already well in hand and the Niners were playing pretty much a prevent D. No matter what, the defense was almost perfect at tackling. Only DG is the ? on tackling ability. Everybody else was near perfect.
Also, how many big plays were made by the Niners when teams spread them out? How many big hits did they deliver? How many times did the opposing teams offensive players not come back into the game after such a collision because they spread them out? Lastly, what option did teams have? You weren’t going to get anywhere at all if you play base offense. And, if you spread us out, you expose yourself. If all you want to do is look at stats, then you can’t much explain a lof what happned last year. We destroyed teams spirits.
Teams are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t when they play us. The only way we lose is if we beat ourselves. And coaching comes to play here as the most important factor in preventing that. And we have the HC of the year as a rookie and one great staff to help him out.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
DS, you have GOT to stop smoking the Afghani during games. Too much THC, man.
@Grant:
It’s not enough for Jonathan Goodwin to stay healthy. He has to improve his pass protection. He was a major liability last year.
Hopefully, it was only because he (a) was playing in an unfamiliar scheme without an offseason to learn it and (b) spent much of the year covering for Rachal/Snyder.
The play of the right guard really effected the performance of Goodwin and Davis. They were forced to cover for their weak links, which is why they kept pulling Iupati over for to cover for him as well. If Boone can be an improvement it will be a big help for Smith.
@Jack:
I hope that’s all it was. But Goodwin has the 10th worst PBE numbers for centers over the past three years (which includes two years not playing anywhere near Chilo Rachal or Adam Snyder)
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/14/three-years-of-pass-blocking-efficiency-centers/
Thanks for the link Claude. I have faith in Goodwin. Guess someone slipped me some of Hofers Kool Aid : )
Alex Smith is “non-functional” on rollouts because he only plays well to memorized scripts that he can go through for years in a row with the same coaching staff. He has off the charts football intelligence and learning ability, but almost no quarterback instinct.
……Do these stats really matter… – in 2011 we got crushed by the saints in first preseason game and then beat them in a playoff game…….
…..seems to me nobody is a perfect team, but a team that gets better as the season goes…
Defense is the best against the run and i think the pass defence will improve, i think the cb’s we got were young last year aka Culliver and even Brown first year starter. Brown has said this offseason that covering Moss has helped him alot and im sure covering Manningham has helped as well!
I like Boone as the backup at both tackle positions. We trade up last year to get Kilgore and in year two he can’t beat out a guy who has never played guard!
This whole football outsiders thing is a joke. Tough schedule this year, but we also have the Rams, Hawks and Cardinals for 6 games. 7.2 wins my foot. Did they simulate the 49ers actually having a decent WR corps?
I think Kilgore is being groomed to take over in the pivot for Goodwin next year. Boone has just done so well as a part-timer that the staff wants to give him a shot at starting. I think it says more about Boone than Kilgore IMHO.
Another point in AS’s favor – am I am NOT really an Alex fan – after Morgan went down, he had WRs who were not good at coming back to the ball, and continuing to work to get open like the Old Master Dwight Clark used to do.
We had Ginn, who was a downfield streak, Crabs, who never seemed to be looking for the ball on the hot read, and KW, who was just too green to help. VD is also more of a downfield big play TE than a possession receiver.
Hopefully with Moss and Manningham, Alex will have more options when a play breaks down. And yeah, hopefully, he will be able to execute and take advantage of those options. And, the line won’t look like a scene from ‘Prison Break’ quite so often.
This is exactly what I said in different words above. Couldn’t agree more. Let’s cross our fingers for better line play and better results out of the pocket w/more options.
LMJ and Hunter can be additional options to dump it off to when flushed out. We need these guys to roll to the flats once protection has broken down as well.
Good point Grumpy Guy. A great example is that the best ad lib off of a broken play Smith had all year was the pass to Hunter in the Philly game. I think familarity with the system will help in this regard this season along with the improvements at WR.
Through the glaring stats, amid the swirling speculations, or the chaotic expectations, one thing is certain. We have a masterful staff of which I have the upmost confidence in. Godfather Fangio is the best. Coach Harbaugh/Roman are a training camp away from an offensive explosion. Coach Seeley and his special teams unit will be relentless in aquiring realestate. From the head trainer to the GM, this team is All Star.
I bought the almanac but not through your link, you sellout.
The 49ers will win 11 games +-1 and again secure the NFC #2 playoff seed. I’ve done millons of simulations in my head. I’m very sorry, but I have report it as I see it. My Do/VA is undeniable.
a few thoughts
Alex Smith out of the Pocket:
1. Alex Smith is one of the least accurate short passers I’ve ever seen. When running outside of the pocket, the QB usually looks to dump it off. Alex Smith just flat out missed many of these throws. I don’t know if it’s a mechanics issue or what. Hopefully his pitching coach worked on his mechanics has fixed the accuracy issues?
2. Alex Smith is EXTREMELY conservative and will throw the ball away very quickly vs. trying to make a play. This also leads unsuccessful plays outside the pocket. Guys like Aaron Rodgers find opportunities downfield when the play breaks down and he rolls out of the pocket. I think that pitching coach also did some analysis of Alex Smith’s head/personality on playing less conservative.
3. The Niner’s receivers are THE WORST at breaking off their routes and trying to help out Smith. Usually the only receivers that are available if Smith has to roll out of the pocket are ones that all ready running routes on that side of the field near the flat or a little deeper. I’ve wondered if it’s because the Niner’s receivers were so focused on learning their new offense that they just stuck to their predetermined routes most of the time when they should have broken off and helped out Smith?
Middle Blitz Pick Up
I’m not letting Goodwin off the hook either. He mostly played well last year. But there were games where he was flat out beaten and overpowered. Part of the problem at Right Guard was that Rachal and even Snyder were confused as to who to block which also screwed up Anthony Davis (who has his own problems). Other times Rachal and especially Snyder were just flat out beaten by their man. Let’s hope that Boone has learned to sink his hips and bend his knees to absorb those 300+ lb Defensive/Nose Tackles and that he and Goodwin can work together and know who supposed to block whom.
8 Man Coverage
I think this shows a weakness in the Niner’s secondary, particularly their Safties in deep zone coverage. It also exposes the Niner’s limitations at Corner; they perform well with safety help over top and a pass rush that doesn’t allow a QB to read and pick apart coverage. 8 men in coverage means the 3 man front doesn’t provide enough pressure and is exposing the coverage limitations of the defensive backs.
When you dropback to pass 40 times a game against this defense there gonna create turnovers. I’ll take my chances with this defense