In the wake of Aldon Smith’s stabbing – and the frightening possibility they might have lost him, it appears they didn’t – let’s rank the players the 49ers can least afford to lose for next season’s Super Bowl run.
This list is highly subjective. I’m open to your ideas. It’s hard to quantify value.
- Aldon Smith –I recently ranked him as the Niners’ third-best player behind Justin Smith and Patrick Willis, but now I’m ranking him as the 2012 preseason team MVP, or the player the Niners can least afford to lose. Why? Because he has the most violent impact on the other team’s quarterback. Last season the 22-year-old played 506 snaps – about half of the Niners’ total defensive snaps – and still ranked second out of all outside linebackers in the NFL in sacks (14), fifth in QB hits (13), and seventh in QB hurries (36). Next season he’s going to start and rush the quarterback almost every defensive snap. He’s going to rush from the right and the left side, and he’s going to rush from three different positions – outside linebacker, defensive end and defensive tackle. Expect to see quarterbacks routinely pointing at Aldon Smith before plays just to let everyone else on offense know where he is. He has the potential to get 20 sacks next season. If he does, the Niners have the potential to be one of the greatest defenses of all time. Without him, the Niners pass rush becomes ordinary or worse because there isn’t an experienced pass rusher backing up Aldon Smith on the roster.
- Justin Smith – Arguably the best defensive player in the NFL last season, the 32-year defensive tackle definitely helped Aldon Smith break the Niners’ rookie sack record by drawing so many double teams. Justin Smith was also one of the best players against the run in the NFL last season. He can do it all, but it’s hard to imagine him getting any better next season –he turns 33 on September 30. If he misses time, the Niners still have another Pro-Bowl-caliber defensive tackle – Ray McDonald – and three backups they like very much – Ricky Jean Francios, Will Tukuafu and Demcarcus Dobbs.
- Alex Smith – If they lose this guy, the Niners have a big problem because no other quarterback on the roster is proven in the NFL. He wasn’t a Pro Bowler last season, but he showed some flashes of excellence, particularly against the Saints in the playoffs. If he can play that well for most of the season, he could win the Super Bowl and jump to No. 1 on this list.
- Vernon Davis – Currently the best player on the offense, he had somewhat of a down season statistically by his standards in 2011 – 792 yards and 6 TDs – but he exploded in his two playoff games – 292 yards and 4 TDs. If he can keep that type of production up next season, the Niners offense should be quite good. If they lose him, they still have other weapons on offense, just no one as good as Davis.
- Patrick Willis – The best middle linebacker in football, maybe ever. Arguably the best player on the Niners right now. He can stop inside runs and outside runs, he can blitz and he can cover tight ends. He may be the best linebacker at pass coverage in the league. He has a good chance to lead the team in tackles and interceptions next season. As great as he is, the Niners could survive without him, because their other starting inside linebacker – NaVorro Bowman, is almost as good as Willis, and the backup – Larry Grant – is good enough to start on most teams. Willis missed four games last season and the Niners went 3-1 without him.
49ers RSS feed
Loading ...
Wow Grant. Alex Smith? Really? Flip flop much……..
seriously!
Why the Niners should go with Kaepernick
Posted on March 19, 2012 by Grant Cohn
“Here’s why I think the Niners should let Alex Smith sign with the Dolphins, and then the Niners could sign Mike Wallace and Josh Johnson instead, and then let Johnson and Colin Kaepernick compete for the starting quarterback job in 2012.
Last season, Alex Smith was a game manager who played his best when he was losing in the second half, and whose best attribute was not turning the ball over.
Besides that, he threw the fewest passes of any quarterback who started all 16 games, and he was the worst on third down and in the red zone.
Colin Kaepernick or Josh Johnson could be the worst QB on third down and in the red zone for way cheaper. Kaepernick will make about $600,000 in ’12. He’d be less than one-tenth of the cost of Smith. So it would cost the Niners much less to have a quarterback throw the ball at the feet, over the head or to the side of Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, you name him.
Spend the cap space on real talent – Mike Wallace – not on Alex Smith, the Steve-DeBerg bridge to the future.”
Mike Wallace would have been a wise investment – I stand by that.
If the Niners had signed him, perhaps Kaepernick or Johnson could have led the team to a Super Bowl this season, but the chances would be slim. Without Wallace, I don’t think Kaepernick or Johnson could win it all this season.
You think Kaepernick, Tolzien or Johnson could win a Super Bowl next season?
I’d say the answer is no, as in zero chance. That’s why the starting quarterback – Alex Smith – is such an important player on next season’s team.
I wouldn’t say zero chance. We saw the kind of improvement the team experienced with AS last year. With Kaepernick, Tolzien or Johnson, there will be a drop off, but as much as you think.
You think Kaepernick could win four straight playoff games six months from now? I think that’s a tall order.
Quite sure patriots didnt think brady was ready either
Brady started 14 regular season games in ’01, won 11 of them and completed 63.9 percent of his passes. I’m pretty sure the Patriots thought he was ready by the time the playoffs rolled around.
It took Kaepernick three years to crack the 60 percent completion mark in college. His career average was 58.2.
However, if we’re lucky all of our WR starters will break their legs in training camp…
Three Years of Drop Rate: Wide Receivers
Rank Player Current Team Drops Catchable Drop Rate
1 Roy E. Williams FA 19 130 14.62%
2 James Jones GB 20 139 14.39%
3 Mike A. Williams TB 20 149 13.42%
4 DeSean Jackson PHI 25 193 12.95%
5 Brandon Gibson SL 18 141 12.77%
6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%
7 Donald Driver GB 22 179 12.29%
8 Randy Moss SF 15 126 11.90%
9 Dwayne Bowe KC 26 225 11.56%
10 Brandon Marshall CHI 35 303 11.55%
11 Michael Crabtree SF 22 195 11.28%
12 Mario Manningham SF 19 174 10.92%
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/02/three-years-of-drop-rate-wide-receivers/
With Owens out of the NFL,C rabtree is the has the 10th worst hands in the NFL. Moss at least can make plays. Or he could. And if you have a playmaker, you can deal with drops with a WR who has explosive and game changing ability like Moss and Owens because their big-play ability over-shadows their marginal hands. But when he’s a third-rate, can’t beat man coverage WR lacking explosion and reliability…
Alex Smith has put up decent numbers with, except Vernon Davis, argubaly the least talented and poorest pass-catching crew in the NFL. Bar none.
And while we signed Moss and Manningham… I’m not sure we improved that much. I think Manningham is better than Crabtree. But Crabtree sucks in virtually every way you can suck as a WR in the NFL.
If Jenkins doesn’t pan out and start by next year… We will continue to have problems in the passing game because we don’t have a single WR that can catch. Or as the article says 49ers fans (and Alex Smith) may want to look away when he sees the drop percentage of some of his receivers (new and old) as Crabtree, Mario Manningam and Randy Moss all rated poorly.
@ MosesZD
Do you have anymore Alexcuses? Perhaps some of Crabtree’s drops were due to poorly thrown passes (high, low, not in stride, etc.). AS has to elevate the play of others around him. Don’t you think he needs to step up. Let’s stop with the excuses and expect better performance from the starting QB.
@ Grant
If the defense, special teams, and solid game planning carry him, who’s to say Kaepernick cannot win 4 straight playoff games.
Those things couldn’t carry Alex Smith last season in the playoffs. You need some QB production in January and February to win the big one.
If we think of it like that, MC would make the list. If MC were not in there during the Title game, the Niners would have been forced to pick seat numbers and the lucky one, gets to go and play.
We had no WR’s by the title game. Just sucks he didn’t play much better than those fans could have in his place.
@moses
VD is the best TE in the game if he plays like he did in the playoffs. With RM (assuming he chooses not to walk in circles because he is mad the waterboy didn’t give him the water bottle first) forcing teams to 2 him, it is pick your poison time. Something AS has never had in any offense. Something every great QB has had.
Not sure what your point about Brady is. He didn’t have a single snap his rookie season and was never even active on game day as the teams #4 qb. He got his chance only because of Mo Lewis. So if your notion is that he was more proven than Kaepernick then you’re way wrong.
Not more proven, just better.
You mean three straight playoff games, don’t you, Grant? And yes, with this defense and the emerging players on offense, I think Harbaugh, uh, I mean Kaepernick, or one of the other backups could pull that off.
It’ll be tough for the Niners to get a first-round Bye in the playoffs with this schedule.
Johnson could. He’s been stuck in Tampa with bad coaching. Wait till training camp. He’s going to blow Alex and his girlfriends away. Bookmark this.
I see we’re already preparing our Alexcuses for 2012. Not a great sign of confidence.
Couldn’t carry him? Seriously? What game exactly were you watching? Smith posted nearly identical stats to Eli Manning the eventual Super Bowl MVP.
If we didn’t have Williams returning Punts Smith would have been holding the Lombardi and you would have been trying to hold onto your lunch. :/
I believe the next time the Niners are in the Super Bowl and the Starters are announced – the starting QB will not be Alex Smith.
Opinions are like you know what 9ersurf, everyone got one and some stankier than others. Correct me if I’m wrong but weren’t you one of the leading drummer boys banging out Alex Smith will be gone after the 5th game of the Season last year? How’ed that prediction pay off for you? Run(don’t walk) to Vegas and bet everything you own that Smith won’t be the Starter when the 9ers go to their next Super Bowl. ;)
~Ceadder :drink:
How? He ranked the best players at their positions in his opinion previously; not how important they were to the team. This list is focused on importance and Smith is actually #1 imo. I don’t see any other QB capable of stepping in right now, whereas I do see that at the other positions Grant listed ahead of him. Haralson while not great is a decent replacement having started the past couple of years, and while there is no other Justin Smith on this team, with the overall talent of the front 7, I see them being able to absorb his loss a little better because of it, just like they did when Willis went down last season. I’d actually rank Vernon Davis #2 simply because there is nobody on this team remotely close to him at the TE position. He is such a matchup nightmare to defenses and this teams biggest offensive weapon.
Interesting, persuasive points. Tough to argue with them.
Wow Moses! What team have you been watching? Really? Your in for quite the surprise!
Grant are you serious, Alex Smith should be #1 on players we should lose. The guy is our handicap. He is our weakest link!!
RIght. Because having the worst receiving corps in the NFL is a walk in the park… The average pass-drop rate for Crabtree the last three years has been 11+% ranking him (now that Owens is out of the NFL) at tenth for worst hands in the NFL.
That list includes many number 1 wr’s and pro-bowlers. If Crabtree has any other legit receivers to run with, consistent coaching and a game plan to utilize his skills he will produce just fine. All those pieces are in place now along with a full off season so give the boys a break. The Niners O will be better this year, you can take that to the bank.
Finally, someone who doesn’t have their nose up Alice’s skirt.
What do you mean “finally”? You haven’t been paying to much attention to this board, have you, period? It is hater central.
You should be #1 of all fans the organization wishes it would lose.
Would that be the same Crom that Conan swears by?
It should be as follows:
1. Aldon Smith
2. Justin Smith
3. David Aikers
4. Andy Lee
5. Vernon Davis
6. Patrick Willis
7. Ray Mac / Soap (tie)
8. Alex Smith
One revision:
8. Tedd Ginn
9. Alex Smith
Based on what happened in the NFC Championship game, I would rank Ginn as more important to the team as AS.
Funny you mention this because I just recently rewatched the NFC Championship game and am even more convinced Ginn might get cut in favor of Williams. If you take away the two miscues – actually to be fair there was third where he dove to catch the ball but the wind played havoc with it – KW really had a pretty good day returning kicks and punts. He really looked confident most of the day which is why I don’t really buy the “the moment was too big for him argument.” He made the right decision on the first miscue he just didn’t move back far enough and it skimmed his knee. On the second one in OT, he just had it stripped by a Giants player that got a good piece of the ball as he was flying by. Tough breaks to be sure, and Williams was the goat in that game because of it, but overall he looked not only capable of being the KR/PR but did an impressive job for most of the afternoon.
While I’m at it, a few other observations from that game:
Ray McDonald was a beast in this game. He really turned it up and was in on 3 sacks.
The Oline got completely blown up in the second half. Time after time the Giants collapsed the pocket and either forced Smith out or sacked him. Really poor job by these guys in the second half, which is why the Coaching staff should have run the ball more.
Other than the miscues by Williams, the two key plays that stick out for me in this one:
Failing on 3rd and 1 at midfield early in the 4th quarter. Gore had been running very well, but after taking the first carry on this drive, he pulled himself, Dixon came in and was stopped for one yard and then no gain on consecutive plays to kill the drive. This was a huge moment as the Niners were up by 4, driving with a physical run game and were in position to go up by at least 7 with another first down and for whatever reason, Dixon is in the game and fails.
The second is the non call on what I still believe was a fumble by Bradshaw. I replayed the segment over and over and there is just no way I see that it wasn’t a fumble. The whistle came after the fumble, he was still fighting for yardage and he hadn’t been pushed back that far. That was key no call by the officials as that would have put us in immediate scoring position.
Still tough to stomach the outcome of that one. Can’t wait until August.
@rocket:
I read your comments because you don’t jump to conclusions, your opinions have bases in fact, and your writing is both persuasive and respectful. IN addition, I understand what you are trying to say about Kyle Williams and agree with it to an extent. That said, I found this assertion to be unintentionally funny:
If you take away the two miscues … KW really had a pretty good day returning kicks and punts.
Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
I hope you take this comment in the spirit with which it was intended.
LOL Claude. It is pretty ridiculous when put in that context isn’t it? The ultimate oxymoron.
What really stood out to me was the amount of kicks he returned that day, and how he looked pretty confident in doing so. I really don’t think they’ll hesitate to put him in that position again, and especially if it comes down to a numbers game in TC. I think Ginn will probably be kept somehow, but I’m not going to be surprised if they let him go, and most importantly, the people that think KW was awful that day and will never return a kick for this team again, need to rewatch that game, because overall he was pretty good.
We would never have made the Post Season w/o Smith.
Strike shortened year, new Coach, new Offense.
Now pontificate to us how Alex Smith had no part in 13-3.
This is why I’m really starting to hate a lot of my fellow 9er fans. Too ignorant to carry on a Football conversation without hyperbole.
If Smith doesn’t get the Playbook from Harbaugh or if he decided that he’dve been better off somewhere else, do you HONESTLY think that we had a Veteran player with the leadership quality to hold an Player run OTA? One that would have paid out of their own pocket the way Smith did?
Yeah yeah I know, “Smith made enough money off the organization blah blah bla blabla bla” the fact remains that Morgan who attended Camp Alex started off the season pretty hot. While #15 who attended but didn’t do any physical training after the 1st day didn’t. There is something to be said for chemistry. #15 was running hot and cold all season long.
But yeah, the 9ers would have went 13-3 without Alex Smith and hell why not say that they would have gone to the Super Bowl w/o him too. Please do yourselves a favor and tell your crack dealers you’re going into rehab. PLEASE!
I’m not saying that Smith was the sole reason the team was 13-3 but to say that Smith had nothing to do with the outcome of the season and the Playoffs is laughably ignorant if it weren’t being echoed by too many 9er fans.
another revision:
9. Water Boy
10. Alex Smith
I bet Harbaugh & Co don’t agree with you ;~) every team’s starting QB is in their top 5.
Another revision:
8. All the other starters except Alex smith
9. Alex Smith
Larry Grant good enough to start on other teams? Really? Why didnt anyone sign him when the price tag was a 7th round pick?(If my memory serves me right).
Other than that – good list, cant argue with any of it.
Why didnt anyone sign him when the price tag was a 7th round pick?
According to the NFLPA, collusion. Not a single RFA was signed by another team.
Interesting, and it makes sense as well. I am surprised this wasn’t publicized by the press.
I have bad news for every one. If we loose AS we will be lucky to go 8-8. Have you seen CK play.Yikes he reminds me of Cody Picket.
Believe it or not, this team was made for AS. He has everything he needs to succeed. A great choach, A stable of Running Backs, Shut Down Defense, and a Six Pack of receivers.
Grant is right on the money. We need AS more than anybody, could even guess,
@Larry:
Don’t worry, Alex smith will be fine as long as the offensive line provides good pass protection.
Oh crap.
Nice one, Claude
I hope you are right, because I like this team alot, but I have my doubts that even with the new weapons bestowed upon AS, he will revert back to same ol’ Alex.
…carefully larry…you will soon be branded “oneniner”
Poor Grant, lol. First he seeks the wrath of the Smithers for his 25th placement for best player, now he is seeking the wrath of the blamers. I will say you are quite right with this order. I find this rather amusing.
grant i usually disagree with you on lots of things but this is actually a good write up and i can agree with it. its just crazy thinking of willis not being the top 1 or 2 most important but our defense really is that good
Grant
Aldon is not the most vital player on the team if they were to lose him. He wasn’t even a starter on all 3 downs last year. Which needs to be a requiremnt for the player who is least expedable on any team. Harralson was the guy in there on 1st and 2nd down. And he was the better of the two in pass coverage. The only thing Aldon was better in was pass rush.
Outside linebackers drop into coverage very rarely in Vic Fangio’s defense.
A pass rusher is arguably the second most vital thing on an NFL team after the QB. Aldon Smith is the Niners best pass rusher by far. Parys Haralson is not a pass rusher.
Grant
Many experts thought/think Williams isa top 3 pass rusher (former Texan) and maybe the best. Yet he never played in a playoff game after several years being the best pass rusher in the NFL. Can the same be said of many other “bests” in their position?
And without my guy, Aldon does not get 14 sacks last year. Having perhaps the best defensive player(s) in the whole NFL next to you and behind you might have some impact on how well you get to the QB. And without CR/DW the QB isn’t holding onto the ball so long. Just tossing that out.
Besides I’ve read that Aldon has been working on his coverage skills a lot. Wouldn’t be doing that (waste of time) unless there is a reason to do so. Don’t coach what isn’t needed.
They do one-on-one coverage drills, but every single member of the team participates.
Julius Peppers carried the Panthers to the Super Bowl in 2004. Charles Haley tipped the balance of power from the 49ers to the Cowboys in the early 90s. Lawrence Taylor was one of the most valuable players of all time.
I don’t think it is even an argument. Pass rush is the 2nd most important thing after the QB. Teams that can generate consistent pass rush without having to send extra guys always make an offense’s job tough, even the best. It’s why the Giants won the SB last year.
It’s also why I was keen to see the 49ers draft another pass rusher early this year – if Aldon Smith were to get injured the defense would go back to being the same defense that desperately needed a guy like Aldon Smith. Without a strong pass rush the 49ers will have a far more difficult time getting the defense off the field and far fewer turnovers.
Not arguing the Haley/LT points. You might want to note though that those guys have not taken a snap in over a decade, almost two.
If those are your most recent examples, then that is telling. And Peppers had only a couple of great years.
And I’m sure Aldon participated last year in those drills. All year long. And PH remained the starter all year long. Aldon’s sack total is telling. But not any more-so than PH being the starter in spite of this.
Aldon may be the best pass rusher. But Brooks ain’t bad, and reports are he is better than ever. As is JS. Ray was decent, especially before his injury. If Aldon goes down it isn’t like the pass rush vanishes.
The most critical player should be the guy who if he goes down, we have nobody remotely as good or who can do the job adequately that the teams chances of winning take a dramatic dip.
Mind you it not not be the obvious answer (Alex). A good case can be made for several others. ST players stand out for me.
@scooter
Perhaps. But TO ratio remains king over QB/pass rusher.
And I didn’t dismiss pass rush as being important. Only that if we lose Aldon, our pass rush vanishes. I disagree. I think we have other sources that should Aldon go down, we won’t suddenly suck rushing the passer.
What about AD? To get a great passing attack, you can’t leave VD in to block. If Davis goes down, how much of a drop is there at RT?
I don’t think AD is remotely the best player. But if he goes down, how much of our offense/team change?
@DS
If Harbaugh and Fangio shared your assessment of Parys, would they have Aldon pencilled in as the starter over Parys? This coaching staff reveals very little, but they revealed that. Fangio stated the obvious though, when he said that Aldon’s refining technique to move up, but that he has to prove he’s better than Parys, but they think he will.
I’m not hating on Parys; but Aldon has the tools to be better than Haley. THAT’S food for thought!
PS Haley wasn’t too good in coverage; Fred Dean neither.
@brotha
The discussion isn’t about who should be starter. It is about Aldon being the most important player we can’t be without.
JS/Brooks/Ray are all very good at rushing the passer.
I never said Aldon sucked or anything. Merely pointing out that the player Grant chose #1 wasn’teven an every down player.
PS Neither Haley or Dean were the most important to stay healthy guy either. I’d place JM/SY/JR/RC ahead of Haley on that list.
Ummm no sorry, but Haralson was probably Passed on the most of any OLB in the league and the other teams were doing it with great success. So much so that Aldon Smith started getting looks on 1st and 2nd down as the season went on. Haralson is not good at Defending the Pass and he NEVER has been. He’s average against the Run as well.
And Grant, are you honestly telling us that if Fangio had the personnel to do it that he wouldn’t mix up the coverage in the middle to bait the Opposing QB into testing the coverage? Of course Fangio would do it. Why didn’t he do that much if at all last year? Cause we don’t have coverage Linebackers on the Outside. That’s why. Whereas both Bowman and Willis can cover pretty well. You think that if Manny had stayed and Haralson were cut that Fangio would not have used Manny in coverage? C’mon man that’s just silly.
@Ceadderman
How do you know that about PH being the most passed on OLB in the NFL? If so, he tackled the guy pretty quickly every time because RB’s out of the backfield didn’t kill us last year. Keep in mind our secondary was pretty good, so the QB had to checkdown a lot. And that is to the RB. Who got no YAC.
Who was the starter in the playoffs? If it was Aldon, then you’re right. If it was PH I’m right. And of course the Niners try to put Aldon on the field more. Teams pass on 1st/2nd down. And Aldon is the better pass rusher.
Really disagree with you on PH run defense skills. PH saw more plays, and we were historic against the run. No way with Aldon as the starter last year do we do what we did.
Just look at the Passing Yards to the Running Backs, Receivers and Tight Ends to Haralsons side of the field. He started to really show us something early in the season. Then he just about disappeared. And yes I’m pretty sure Aldon Started in the Divisional and Championship games. I could be wrong but he sure was all over the field when he was in though.
Also not like it really Matters. A Start consists of the first down from Scrimmage played. Just cause you Started a game doesn’t mean you aren’t gone by the 2nd series. That was one reason why Mike Lewis really cheezed me off when Singletary Started Taylor Mays over Lewis. Dude went infantile on us and demanded his binky by way of demanding a trade. Way to show the Leadership qualities of a 10 year Veteran of the NFL. It’s a wonder that this team was even competitive at all with Leaders like that throwing tantrums.
Annnnnnnnyway… I’m talking Screens and Bubble Passes over Haralson. He did finally start to perform but the lack of production on the field has me stymied why he’s still on this team. Although as Harbs said everyone starts out with a clean slate. So I’ll give the guy one more chance to turn it around but he’s been a less than average Defender and imho is the weakest link in this unit. :/
Wow Ceadderman, you have a serious disconnect from reality.
Haralson was rated as one of the best coverage LBs in the league by PFF. He was targeted 7 times in the entire season. That’s not even close to “Passed on the most of any OLB in the league”.
I think the Precious has started to ruin your mind. Henceforth I shall refer to you as Gollum-man.
@ceadderman
If msc is correct, it would jive with my memory from last season. I don’t recall all that many passes completed on PH.
As for your weak link comment, I will say that PH doesn’t make all that many big plays. But by the same token, PH gives up no big plays. On an average D he may be a liability of sorts, but on this D, there are enough big time players where PH’s lack of big plays does not hurt, and his ability to not get beat and maintain his responsibility and fine tackling technique is more than enough for us to win multiple Super Bowls with him playing a major role.
That being said, PH may be one of those late vet cuts who are plenty good to be on many teams. He and/or DW I suspect may be cut.
Yeah okay MSC, I think you’re more Smeagle than anyone else here considering your love and adoration of Alex Smith is beyond creepy.
Have you ever heard of overstating a fact? Like you know a player is bad but instead of simply stating it and letting it stand on it’s own merit you overstate the obvious? Haralson sucks against the Run. Thirty COMBINED Tackles over 16 Games Started says that’s so.
I’m not sure where PFF gets their information but most everything thrown his way was completed. YAC don’t make a bit of Difference if the completion is 3-5 yards a completion. He had a couple good games but he’s replaceable for the production value he contributes to this team.
Now I don’t know how stating this makes me Golem but if you say so then I’ll wear it like a badge of honor. Instead of loosely debating this with PFF’s fun facts I would suggest you do your own homework though. There was a reason Smith was put on the field more and more as the season went along which I think is contributing to PFF’s fun stat of seven attempts completed.
It’s difficult for the stat to be higher if you AREN’T out on the field now isn’t it? ;b
I don’t see DW being cut DS9er. Too much production value based on the tools in the work chest. The guy can line up at all the skill positions on the field and has the speed too. He’ll also play Special Teams. You don’t give a 5 tool athlete their walking papers unless they do something that undermines the Coaching or the team.
Roman can line Walker up as a TE in Twin TE sets. Can line him up as a Receiver in 5 Wide Formation. Can line him up as a HB in the Backfield and motion him out to the edge to catch Passes in the flat. Unless someone comes along that can prove they’re a better TE, I don’t see Walker being unseated as TE2 behind Davis. The only reason a TE saw more time on the field toward the end of the season was the broken jaw. That could have happened to anybody considering the player that did it wore no padding on his knee and rand right into him at full speed.
Walker also runs a 4.4(?) time? Yeah he has to work on his hands but he was consistent considering the amount of targets he got. I think that they would have drafted Fleener if they were looking to replace Walker. ;)
@ceadderman
Cutting DW happens because of the numbers game.
We may have 6-7 WR (MC/Moss/Jenkins/KW/TG/Manningham/camp darling who looks good)
We have 3 young RB’s + FG. Are any of them going? Doubt it.
Our secondary starters are staying. And Culliver/Brock/new guy look to be solid locks.
Our DL, needs 1 more body in there in addition to last year. Got lucky nobody really got injured.
TE – VD. Add maybe Bajima.
QB/LB/OL I see us carrying the same number.
Way I see it, DW isn’t better WR than those guys. DW isn’t a better blocker than Bajima. DW is not a VD threat. He only stands out on ST, but whose to say a new guy won’t be just as good? DW is not Spillman good.
My base offense in my ideal world is:
VD/RM/KH/Jacobs/other.
The other could be DW, sure. But KW is a great slot guy potentially, and just as fast as DW with better hands. Other guy could be one of the remaining 6 WR’s. Add to this the oddity that is NFL players having career years the last year of their contract (DW is I think) and what does DW do on the field that other guys who are better can’t do? I actually think in a way, if Fleener were drafted, DW stays. All CF does is catch. But a WR does that better. Why keep a TE in to block? Just add another OL.
@msc/ceadderman
Golum could be seen as the hero of the series. Without him, Frodo and Sam never get near Mt. Doom.
Don’t know if that is how you intended it/read it. Just a different take from most. That’s all.
:- )
DS,
DW isn’t going anywhere you silly fool. He is a very good and versatile run blocker and in Harbaugh’s system they will always have 3 TE’s on the roster.
Making your comment even less intelligent is saying Bajima is a better blocking TE. Who cares? He hasn’t been on the team for 3 years you goof.
Jack
Stay away. What kind of life do you have when somebody continually tells you to leave them alone, and you don’t?
It was quite a nice thread till you showed up with more insults.
Stay away means stay away. Though I think I am not the first to tell you, and you don’t comply. I suspect that list is quite long.
DS its a disease all the haters have, they can’t let it go. It’s in their DNA to beat a dead horse and not contemplate reason. Rather than ask hack jammer to leave you alone, just feel sorry for him, he and the others will never get it!
Prime
The thing that pissed me off so much with Jack is that he questioned my ability to learn/comprehend his “advanced” football knowledge.
Then he got his panties in a bunch when I used the dreaded”r”word. Not even at anybody mind you. It was about the idea AS can’t pass over 50 yards.
So Jack got upset and brought his nephew involved because he is “r” word.
Look up the “r” word. It’s definition includes “slow to learn/comprehend”. The very thing Jack said of me. So he can call the definition of the word to a blogger, but I can’t use the word as it relates to the issue of AS throwing 50 yard passes. How is that fair?
Anyway. Stay safe and have a nice 4th Prime!
DS all I’m gonna say is that Walker is TE2. Who do you see supplanting him on the roster? Peele? Is Peele even still with the team? At minimum teams keep 3 TEs’ on he roster. ;)
As far as 50 yard Passes, if you’re having to wing 50 yard Passes constantly there is something very very very wrong with your team. Whether it’s personnel(both sides of the ball), coaching or scheme. It’s no coincidence that most of the QBs’ that are consistently throwing Deep all have Defenses that give up the big play or Running Backs that average less than 4 yards a carry or face teams that have secondary concerns. I’m not sure who was in which camp here but would you want to throw deep to the guys that we had on the field last year? I know I wouldn’t. Especially when Ginn is running himself out of bounds due to poor field awareness and understanding of how to use the sideline to his advantage(i.e. cross under the DB to the inside and force HIM out instead of the other way round. You want to see how it is done watch Jerry Rice game film. None better at working the sideline. Cris Carter was a mack daddy at this as well. It’s called being physical.
An meh, without Golum Frodo doesn’t HAVE to go to mount Doom. ;)
Now you guys got me wondering when they’re getting their act together for “The Hobbit”, anyone know if that one is in the can now or what? I’ve seen the originals as well as read the books as a lad. Would like to see it in the theatre before my ticket is punched. xD
Ceadderman,
Peele isn’t on the team. The top 4 TE’s that are on the roster are:
Vernon Davis
Delanie Walker
Nate Byham/Konrad Reuland
Thanks Jack that’s what I thought, but I wasn’t sure the way the Offseason has been going. Appreciate the correction/confirmation. :)
I totally agree with Ceader about PH… He is OK but I believe that the talents around him make him OK. On an island he is no where near the other guys on this defense. Yes it’s a team unit, but there are times when you need the individual talent to make plays. There is a reason why PW, NB, and others stand out, it’s because of their individual skills. I saw NB helping him a little to often. If there is any weakness on the front 7 it’s the left side of the defense. Unlike some of you guys I’d like to see the best in every position on the field. That being said I hope he improves more this season. And if not I’d like to see someone that can cause more havoc on that side.
Now DW…. I don’t know what ds is smoking, but he is the second best TE on the team. I know ds won’t look at it like this, but DW has had a lot of opportunities to make some plays and didn’t get the ball. I know it’s a shock to the smith fans, but it happened. He’s got great speed, better hands than my boy VD, good route runner, good blocker, and knows where to be. Since ds loves to bring up smiths NO game, let’s remember how big the det game was and who made that final TD catch. I love me some VD, but I believe if he had caught that play his knee hits the ground. Walker showed great balance and awareness and strength on that play. How often have you guys seen that kind of play called down at the one. I’m telling you guys again. When smith or whoever our qb is can master spreading the ball, players like MC, DW, and KW will prove to be very good recievers. I’m telling you, you have no idea what this offense is going to do next season, they are going to be damn good. Harbaughs motive this season is to get smith to use these weapons. I think smith finally grasps this, and has a monter year. I don’t think one reciever or TE have monster years because it will be a monstrous balanced passing attack. You watch people. The writing is on the wall. The high powered offenses we grew up on IS BACK!!!
@ceadderman
” Who do you see supplanting him on the roster? Peele? Is Peele even still with the team? At minimum teams keep 3 TEs’ on he roster. ;)”
We don’t really need a blocking TE at all. And VD is the best there is passing and blocking (though I hope to see less of that this year).
Plus we may be keeping a lot more WR’s this year. If we do, why do we need another pass catching TE? Why not just put another WR out there instead? And put in an extra OL when you need the extra blocker. Some teams do that as well.
Don’t get me wrong. I like DW a lot. He has been a great teammate from what I’ve gathered, and he does a lot of the work people don’t notice. All things I appreciate.
But, if you seriously look at the numbers of who/how many of each position do we keep that gives us the best chance of winning, I think DW is more exendable than you do. That is all.
And I think PH is more valuable than DW is. If Aldon has the sophmore blues (something nobody has really thought of in print at least) and can’t grasp his assignments or goes down with an injury, who are we going to get who is remotely near PH? If VD goes down, we still have all those WR’s who can come in to take his place. It might cause a little shift in our offense, but if Aldon goes down or can’t handle his starting role as an OLB, teams will exploit that and our elite D won’t be so elite.
If VD goes down, our offense will at worse, suck. Much like it did last year. And we still nearly went to the Super Bowl with that sucky offense. So, we can still win games.
When you were the 29th ranked passing offense and were last in the redzone and last on 3rd down conversions. Anyone of the qbs we have on the roster could step in and be better than Smith under performing arse . I am so sick of this guy. In any job in any career if you were that crappy at your job for that many years. You would of been fired by your employer 100 x’s over.
If Smith doesn’t improve this year, the Niners won’t win the Super Bowl. So much rides on him next season.
Yet he’s still here. Hmm Why aren’t they listening to a football genius like Crom with all this great advice and knowledge? He’s obviously got it all figured out.
If you think that he sucks that bad, why would the employer keep hiring the guy back 100x’s +1?
And why would you remain with a stupid company which did that?
This is about you. Not the employer or worker.
I think I figured it out. Crom is Mike Singletary. O_o
Crom’s Teeth!!
“the lions ate him”
We don’t need Alex Smith to win a Super Bowl, we would be fine without him. Although I believe JJ would be next in line, not Kap. AS is not in my top 10 at all.
After thinking about this a bit, I believe that the defense right now is the heart and soul of the team.
Number one: is Justin Smith is the main cog on that defense, he rushes the passer with the best of them, he plays the run well, non-stop motor, makes big plays, and he makes others better especially Aldon.
Number two: Vernon Davis, as Rocket noted, big drop off here. Would of been nice to have Fleenor.
Number three: Aldon Smith, same thing defense, runs the team, you always have a chance to win when other teams cant score. Sacks, pressure, more sacks.
Number four: Randy Moss, until proven otherwise he is going to change the way defenses defend us. No other receiver will do that for us this year.
Number five: Alex Smith, is a good solid QB, nothing special (yet). Very difficult to replace him with our current backups. This may change after pre season.
Sorry Neal wasnt suppose to go there.
No worries under I do it all of the time.
I was just thinking the same thing about VD last week. What happens when the injury bug hits us. I hope it does not.
Grant, good read.
Here’s my top 5 and why:
1. Justin Smith – He makes everyone on the DL and LB corp better. Do you think AldSmith gets 14 sacks if JS is out? JS also takes on 2-3 blockers and is the player most feared on the 9er DL by the opponent’s offense. He also plays every down on defense at 150 MPH.
2. Alex Smith – He’s *had* his issues, but for the most part, he has been limited due to injuries, talent and coaching. Now for the first time, he has coaching and talent plus he was injury free last year. AS and the offense will surge this year. This year many will see why some of us said early on get this kid some coaching and talent around him and we’ll see the positive difference in his game. Big games and tough schedule this year move AS up on this list.
3. Vernon Davis – This one is close between VD and PW. Now that the OL has been shored up, VD can focus more on being the playmaker he is. The 11-85 connection will be alive and well in 2012. Can’t win if you don’t score and VD is the biggest weapon on offense.
4. AldSmith – BW (even with his offensive-centric mind) always knew that a pass rush in the 4th quarter was the difference between winning and losing. (Big assist to JSmith for clearing the path)
5. Patrick Willis – The opponent’s offense focuses on PW and they can double team him or scheme away from him and he still gets his hand on the player with the ball. He was replaced admirably by LGrant, but there is no inside LB consistently, game after game, better than PW.
Honorable mention:
6. Isaac Sopoaga – His role is key for the success of the 3 – 4 defense. IS clogs the middle and is big enough to take up space and not be easily moved out of position. There isn’t a backup with his size and strength that can produce like he does. If you don’t think he produces and that he is a talent, see what the drop off is if he is out. He is a big reason the defense was so good against the run last year.
All above are very important to winning in 2012 and it is a very small degree of difference between each listed. Very difficult to rank but feel this is the list of importance.
Looking forward to another outstanding year! Go 9ers!!!
“This one is close between VD and PW”
VD and AldSmith.
Your Alex bias continues to shine right through Hof. Let me make it easy for you. If Justin Smith hit the market would he command top dollar at his position? YES. If Aldon Smith hit the market right now, would he command top dollar at his position? Even as a rookie, he’d be top ten.
Alex Smith tested the market and received zero interest Hof. And his own team low balled him and gave him a series of one year commitments.
So just admit he’s a hero in “your” book and move on instead of trying to justify your love affair to us.
Bay,
They didn’t low ball him, they paid him market value.
Bay, why don’t you just admit you don’t like AS? Why hide it? Trade value really?
The premise was who can the 9ers least afford to lose for their Superbowl run this coming season. It isn’t about trade value. You admitted yourself that CK isn’t ready. My list is realistic and I stick by it.
not trade but *market value*
@Bay:
Besides the fact that you have deliberately mischaracterized what happened in the free agent market, you should also consider the idea that Alex Smith is worth more to the 49ers than he is to other teams.
Just stop reading Bay altogether guys. He’s made himself clear from the very beginning. He wanted Rodgers all along. And with Rodgers holding 1 Lombardi to Alex Smith not having any, he’s campaigning for the kid being ousted. Nevermind that nobody in the Front office would ever listen to the guy.
Great stance by the way HoFer. I said it from the very beginning that Smith does have the intangibles. Just needs what all other QBs’ need. But that’s too difficult a concept for some people to digest.
I still don’t see any of the ABAS crowd sampling that filet of crow for last season. Now that the playoffs are over and the 9ers didn’t get their 6th, fans are once again throwing Alex Smith on the tracks in front of the Cable Car. :/
Hof. A year to early to be putting Alex on this list. Wheres Bowman? Akers? J Staley? F Gore? Sorry Hoff Although I think Smith will have a DynoMITE year. Right now as we stand There is NO way in hell he couldnt be replaced better than the rest of these guys. We got a qb guru coach and 3 young talents waiting. With Harbaugh Smith can be replaced easy.
“let’s rank the players the 49ers can least afford to lose for next season’s Super Bowl run.”
MD, based on Grant’s premise as quoted above, I believe in my list. The only reason I have JS ahead of AS is that the defense is better than the offense currently and JS helps so many perform including AldSmith. That should change this year. They will be very close in terms of balance. If the offense doesn’t score, there is no need for sacks, etc. AS had a bigger chore last year than most will admit.
Regarding some of the players you listed, including Akers, the 9ers can replace them and not have much fall off since they have better back ups than AS does at this point (FG Kickers can be found. Even the good ones get replaced, and that is why we have Akers in the first place).
Fair enough Hoff, but I still think that even though the qb is the most important Smith didnt do it better than the rest of these guys did theirs. Thats my outlook on this list, and as far as Akers being replaced….Maybe so, but these other guys I dont think so. These guys were on the top 100 list judged by their peers. That go’s a long way. And shows that the are the best of the best at their positions. Ehh Still think that if the FO went with one of these other guys, Harbaugh would have them ready, and I think they would be better than Smith was last season, because of the new weapons. Who knows what they would have done last season if they started. Look at Smith suprising a lot of people. Id say 1 year and its safe to say Smith will be tough to replace.
“Smith didnt do it better than the rest of these guys did theirs”
MD, I’m not saying AS did it better than any others, just that he can’t afford to be lost because he is surging, and because his backups aren’t ready to play at a high level.
Again, the premise is who can the team least afford to lose for next season’s SB run.
Hoff none of us know if these guys are ready to step in and play at a high level. Guys like GC and MB and MM can guess because they see them playing without pads, but I would never go by their or anyone on tv’s opinion until I saw them actually play. I just feel that the way Harbaugh held back the reigns on Smith last season any of these guys could have played that way. Lets remember Smith started from square 1 last season. These guys have been learning the book as much as Smith has, and have the tools to go out and play this game. IMO Smith didnt do enough to say he’s not replacable. We all know what happened this offseason. So I guess we can disagree with the opinion on whether these guys can fill in right now. All good. Thats what opinions are for.
” I just feel that the way Harbaugh held back the reigns on Smith last season ‘
MD, I believed that too for several months. Then I took and a step back and looked at what the FO and JH did to the offense. They added playmakers at RB and WR through the draft, they added *two* WRs – RM and MM, plus BJac through FA. I’m not so sure they held AS back. They just didn’t have the talent and the FO/JH replenished the offense after a year and what would best fit (compliment) the other players skill set. Stay tuned and get ready for an exciting ride. That New Orleans game *was not* an anomaly. 2012 – All in!!
MD,
It’s astonishing how unreasoned your view is on the QB position on this team. If it was as easy as you make it out to be, there would be no busts and everyone would be successful. You are seriously undervaluing the job Smith did last year. It seemed easy to you, but I guarantee you, it wasn’t.
The reality is we have inexperience and JJ behind Smith. JJ has never had success at this level, so we are dependant on Smith imo if this team wants to make a serious SB run. That is why Grant ranks him so high, and why I would rank him even higher.
Justin Smith, PWilly, Aldon, VD are all great players, and better football players than Alex Smith. However in terms of value to this team in their efforts to win a SB, they are all behind Smith imo.
Rocket…. You just dont get it. Smith did fine last season, he played like a rookie would play. Cam newtom anybody???? You don’t know if one of these qb’s are ready or not. You can diminish harbaughs skills on how to get a qb ready. I’ve heard all last season how this is another freshman year for smith. So by you telling me that one of these other guys can’t duplicate what he did last season is far fetched iny mind. Plus the weapons they would have now is a clear advantage. I know you believe smith was a world beater last season but he hardly was. Smith hit free agency. So… Can they afford to lose him?
MD,
I’m not diminshing Harbaughs credentials at all. He did a fantastic job with Smith. What I’m saying is, there is a huge drop off in experience behind him, and you are underestimating the job Smith did last year. Your oversimplification of what he did is laughable. Like anybody can just go out there and QB a 13 win team, while protecting the ball as well as he did. No way Kap or Tolzien would be throwing only 5 picks and that was huge part of the teams overall success.
Smith was no world beater by any means, but he was a lot better than you give him credit for. Old habits die hard.
Really good list Hofer….for me it’s really hard not to put Ray MacDonald in that list (most underrated guy on the team), but who do you take off, Willis or Aldon?
@ md
My one cent would be that I don’t believe Harbaugh held Alex back, I would say he held the Entire Offense back, Alex was never the only question mark, remember the dodgy unproven O-Line? remember the dodgy unproven WR’s? Rookie fullback anyone? Any good coach would have taken a veeery conservative approach when presented with the Offensive (sic) roster that we had last year. The luxury Harbaugh had was a beast of a Defense!
1.Patrick Willis – The emotional leader of the team and the captain who calls all the defensive plays before the ball is snapped – some say Justin Smith is the defensive leader – Hands down its Patrick – he’s to the Niners what Ray Lewis was to the Ravens a few years back.
2. Justin Smith – without Justin, Aldon Smith probably gets about half the sack totals he got last year.
3. I’m a fence sitter – Alex Smith/Vernon Davis – The game can’t all be won on just kicking field goals – though last year we came close…most times you need to score more than 9 points to win. Without AS/VD the Niners just can’t score the ball all that much. Until Colin or some other QB plays and shows me something – I have to go with Alex. With all the sacks Alex takes a year – I get this queasy feeling we might not see him a game or two. Go Colin! You’ve finally got your chance
By the end of this season, Crom etc. will be sitting quietly in the corner with nothing much to say as Alex Smith crushes his enemies, sees them driven before him and hears the lamentations of their women.
@BillB
LOL Lamentations like Giselle after the SB?
Grant, I’m not sure you can have it both ways here! Alex didn’t even make your top 15! How could he be listed in your top 3 of 49er “MVP”‘s. That seems like a bit of a stretch on the logic there. I can almost see how you could argue for this in that there are rookies backing him up….but couldn’t the Niners just grab a veteran from free agency and plug him into a system that is “QB friendly” if Alex’s success was more of a product of JH’s and GR’s system and NOT Alex performing at a high level? My gut tells me (and my eyes from all of last season) that Alex Smith was one the best players on the team last year (top 10) and that he was one of the reasons that we had so much success. Losing him would truly hurt us and potentially jeopardize our season. So I agree that Alex should be on this list, but he should’ve been much higher on your “top 25″ list.
Either Alex is 24th best on this team and he doesn’t belong on this list -OR- you severely under ranked Alex before and he is ranked right where he should be on this list.
There are 23 very good to excellent players on the 49ers, and Alex Smith isn’t one of them yet. That said, he’s easily one of the top-3 most important players on the team because of the position he plays and the players behind him on the depth chart. If he makes a reasonable improvement to his game next season, the Niners should win the Super Bowl. If he plateaus or regresses, the Niners probably won’t win the Super Bowl. That’s why he’s so important to this particular team.
I’m not going to argue that Alex Smith is an “excellent” player at this point (by current NFL standards), but he is definitely a “very good” QB. Like I said previously, if he is not a very good qb, couldn’t (shouldn’t) we just find another veteran to do what Alex does at slightly higher level? If that’s the case, then we CAN afford to lose him. He can’t be 24th best AND #3 “mvp” on the team. Had you placed him in the top 10-15, I could see the logical path….but not with him as the 24th best player. There just isn’t real traction with that logic.
I understand that you don’t have confidence in the players behind him on the depth chart….but one of the main points about our system is that it is QB friendly and can make “mediocre” QBs look good. So wouldn’t that be the case for our mediocre QBs behind Alex (or a decent veteran that we could pickup)? Couldn’t we play to their strengths as well (like we did for Alex)?
I would place Vernon Davis higher than Alex. He made Alex look All-pro at certain points in the playoffs last season (and could probably make any QB look good playing at the level he was). Or were they both just playing at a very high level (hence killing your argument)? Or are you saying that Alex was the one making the magic because he ranks higher than Vernon Davis?
By the consistency of your argument, shouldn’t David Akers be ranked higher than Alex Smith? He single-handled kept our season momentum alive at points.
I get how important the QB position is, but a mediocre QB isn’t worth a #3 “team mvp”, no matter how important the position is. That is of course, unless he’s NOT mediocre….and your rankings are little misplaced.
the blind hate, and i mean blind, for the Niners very capable quarterback is disgusting….this blog must be inhabitated by a bunch of 13 year olds….Alex Smith is the most indispensible player on the 49ers
@Mark
I guess that’s why the front office tried to upgrade the QB position in the off season. Go figure.
Nick,
C’mon, seriously, they tried to upgrade with a HOF QB that hit UFA. They didn’t try to fill the position with anyone else. It was Manning, and it was a good decision to try. Failing that, Smith was their guy.
Rocket
Last year, they tried to upgrade with Matt Hasselback. For two consecutive years, they’ve tried to upgrade the QB position. It’s not up to AS now to prove the doubters wrong.
@NickRow:
There you go again. Do you have any evidence that Harbaugh/Baalke considered Hasselbeck an upgrade, or are you just projecting your opinion onto them?
FWIW, Alex Smith was not actually under contract at the time the 49ers were rumored to be interested in Hasselbeck.
It’s not up to AS now to prove the doubters wrong.
I agree with you there. It’s up to the doubters to acknowledge they were wrong about Smith in the first place.
Last year, they tried to upgrade with Matt Hasselback
No they didn’t. You can keep saying it as much as you like, but that didn’t happen. They had committed to Smith before they could even talk to Hasselbeck, and then offered Hasselbeck a chance to come in and compete for the job which Hass declined.
I don’t think it’s possible for Smith to prove some of his doubters wrong. There are many that have him ingrained as a bust in their minds and will never let it go.
Schwetty,
“It’s up to the doubters to acknowledge they were wrong about Smith in the first place.”
There are still plenty of reasons for people to doutbt Smith. Even in his best year he was a middle of the pack QB. If you don’t have some doubts then you haven’t been paying attention.
Sorry, Jack, but I think you have it backwards. Those who remain unconvinced after last year are the ones who haven’t been paying attention.
Nah Schwetty,
It has already been proven that his level of play in 2011 is not enough to get the team to a Super Bowl. He needs to play better in 2012 if they are going to reach that level. He has not yet proven that he has the ability to do it.
It has already been proven that his level of play in 2011 is not enough to get the team to a Super Bowl.
Boy, there’s nothing facile about that analysis, is there? It assumes that the sole reason for the 49ers’ failure to make the Super Bowl in 2011 was Alex Smith.
It also conveniently ignores the fact that the doubters said that Smith wasn’t a legitimate starting QB, that he was the reason the 49ers lost games, and that the 49ers could never win with him as QB.
It has already been proven that his level of play in 2011 is not enough to get the team to a Super Bowl. He needs to play better in 2012 if they are going to reach that level. He has not yet proven that he has the ability to do it.
No doubt he needs to improve, but his play last year was good enough to get them there combined with the defense and ST’s.
I agree with that Rocket.
@Claude
That was a typo on my part. I meant to say it is now up to Alex to prove the doubters wrong. Is AS a mediocre QB or something more? The burden is on AS to answer that question.
On a side note, I doubt that the Alexcuses from the Smithers will end this year.
@Nick Row/BillyBob:
I know it was a typo. I was just being snarky.
I think Smith clearly demonstrated last year that he was more than a mediocre QB. The Saints game showed he was much more. Yet, some of you still cling to conclusions you formed during the Nolan-Singletary years, as if those years are somehow more definitive or relevant. Whether it’s old habits dying hard or just a stubborn refusal to admit a mistake, it’s an odd position for a fan to take.
Why do you post under two IDs?
Yet, some of you still cling to conclusions you formed during the Nolan-Singletary years, as if those years are somehow more definitive or relevant.
I think you hit the nail on the head Claude. I don’t know if it’s the inability to look past what happened previously, or putting too much credence into an offense strung together with no offseason, but it appears as though the people opposed to Smith can’t get the Nolan version out of their mind. The Singletary version was actually not too bad for the most part as he was continually improving the more he played, but it seems as though the dye was cast when Nolan threw him under the bus and the subsequenst injuries and struggles that followed.
@Claude
My son Billy must have been posting on here. I just realized that i posted using his name.
With AS as the QB, David Aikers and Andy Lee must be in the top 5 – unless AS breaks from past form and becomes an above average NFL QB.
Nick, come on you are better than that. Akers and Lee aren’t as important as the player that touches the ball on every down on offense. Value! Don’t let your bias get in the way. lol
Hofer,
I may be biased, but I really believe that Akers and Lee are among the top 5 most valuable players on the Niners. Here’s why: given the success that JH and AS had in the ball control, field position style of play, its obvious that Lee plays a critical role. Such style lends itself to close scoring games. Thats why Akers is so important. He accounted for 44% of the team’s scoring. Even if you don’t count Extra Points, he still accounted for 35% of the team’s points.
Nick
No problem putting those two in top 5.
Though I say Lee is more vital. Akers replaced a great kicker in Nedney. Who was here before Lee? How easily can you find somebody as good as him in a pinch?
Top 5 is to narrow anyway. It is really dependent on who you like. Top 10 list is better.
I’d say 4 of the top 10 can be ST guys (our best unit was ST). 4 of them can be defensive players. And 2 are offensive players.
@DS
Special teams doesn’t get the consistent credit it deserves. Brad Seely and the ST players have done a solid job.
1 P Willis……Nuff said.
2 VD out TD machine.
3 J Smith The beast that sets the tone for our pass rush
4 A Smith, The guy getting these sacks because of J Smith
5 Gotta be F Gore. The workhorse of this offense. Still has enough in the tank to make this top 5. Sooo important to this offense.
Now the Alex Smith reason why he isnt on my list. Yes his position is THE most important but the way Harbaugh had him playing last season, “not to lose the game” And the fact that Harbaugh is very good at developing qb’s and quickly. I cant place Smith on this list, because we were winning last season with mainly defense, and ST. I do think he will be great this season, but I also feel that if ST, CK, or JJ had to come in this season we wouldnt miss a beat from last season, and IMO would be better than last because of the new weapons. Harbaugh is the key here. 1 year to early for Smith on this list. Take what you want from it ladies and Gents, but cmon isnt it the same thing we’ve been arguing about for awhile now? ;-)
MD,
You can’t let go of your myopic view of last season and it makes you look ignorant man, I’m sorry. I have no idea why you think the offenses contributions were so insignificant, but I’ve provided you the facts in another thread to show you that isn’t true, yet you continue to believe otherwise.
Willis is a great player, but we already had a chance to see how they would perform without him and the result was 3-1. That means not only is he not at the top of the list, but it’s questionable if he’s even in the top 5. He is a great player, but the front 7 as a whole is talented enough to withstand his loss, or Justin Smith or Bowman or Aldon Smith. I’m not saying these guys aren’t vital to the teams success; just that losing Alex Smith would be a much greater blow to the teams chances as there is no one to replace him at the level of the other guys on this list. Saying you don’t think the team would miss a beat with one of the other QB’s is delusional imo.
rocket
Agree with all but JS. The guy never takes plays off. The only time I recall he did was the finale against the Rams. He left the game to rest, the Rams started looking good all of a sudden. He comes back in, the Rams suck once again. Coincidence?
Plus, who is his backup?
Alex Smith cracks the list?! I see what you did there, Granty ma’ boy!!
Quarterback is the most important position in football, period. Smith isn’t one of the top players on the team, but he is very valuable. If he improves this year the team will have a very good chance at winning the Super Bowl. Kaepernick or Tolzien may be the future, but Smith is the now and this team is ready to go on a run. If Smith evolves into a top flight QB this season, we have the long term solution. If he regresses, the team will most likely move on. I don’t see how he regresses, the key will be how much he will improve. The offense will have to be much more effective this year in order to win the Super Bowl.
Very good points, but its not next season yet. So I cant see his job skills being more valuable than PW, NB, FG, JS, Al Smith, FG, or VD right now. If Harbugh can get Smith to play his best football in a shortened season, by keeping it safe, There is no way I couldnt see him doing the same with another QB WITH a full offseason. I believe ANY of these guys could do what Smith did last season, and maybe better. Its all about Harbaugh Bra. Smith has to step up more this season, and when he does, then I could place him in this top 5. But not right this second.
Great assessment BigP!!! Although I don’t view Smith as the King of Narnia, like some folks on here view him as, I think without Alexander D. Smith, we’d have a very tough time, or close to ZERO CHANCES, at winning the division; let alone make the playoffs.
Grant is right, Alex gives us the best chances of winning. In my humblest of all opinionated opinions, if we’re talkin Super Bowl run … I’d rather much see Culpepper under center than Tolzy, Kappy, or Johnsy. They’re just not ready for that type of responsibility and or pressure.
And I agree!! I don’t see Smiff regressing, so I really have no choice!! I’m rollin’ with Nolan…I mean Smith!!!! I’m rollin’ with Smith!!! Geeezus!! Where the hell did that come from?!?!?!
Well said BigP.
Oh Gawd…….. The blog world is back to **** Some certain alien is back from its, Planet Stupidia vacation. Man it was nice. Back on the old Smith protection job huh Ds? Wheew
The blog was fine until your ****.
Take a vacation yourself md. Stop obsessing about me.
@Grant
md’s post was the kind of post that serves no purpose of any kind. Best deleted.
HA HA HAAA Looks its back snitching and trying to take control over someone ELSE’S blog. Get lost ds, It was great before you and its been great lately. Tell that to Grant. Im sure he knows it too. Snitch!!!!!lol
@Grant
This one as well.
md, go away. Stop your hate or stop posting.
LOOK GRANT. The dictator is back and trying to tell you how to run your blog. HA HA HAAAA
Hey Ds……How about you try doing what you said you would and NOT read my posts? Instead of trying to snitch and control this blog like its your own? Its not hard. right???? LOL Talk about obsession. LOL
Grant, I agree with Hofe that this is a good read and list.
This IMO, is a better team barometer then the ‘best player’ ranking you presented last week. But it’s all good.
My list would be:
1. P.Willis – A healthy PW is essential to the teams success. When P.Will came back at the end of season and playoffs he still looked a step slower in coverage.
2. Alex Smith – Not a huge AS fan, but he is every bit as vital to the offense as P.Will is to the defense.
3. Justin Smith – He is our Haloti Ngata. A non-stop force who creates havoc and disruption.
4. Aldon Smith – Causes offenses to change their game planning.
5a. Vernon Davis – Came on in the second half/playoffs. AS’ favorite target who has learned to trust in precise routes as much as his sheer athleticism.
5b. Frank Gore – Perhaps the best blocking RB and still a force to be reckoned with as a runner.
I added Frank Gore (5b), because it was obvious that AS took his bruises when he was out of the line-up. He may no longer pop the long run, but he can certainly still move the chains. And as the great Hank Stram said; “Let’s metriculate the ball down-field.” Football is about outscoring the opposition, whether that comes by way of an 80 yrd TD run or 10 yrd TD, it still counts as six.
AES, tough to create a list of only 5. Now if it were a list of 10 or 12, it would be much easier. Again, top 5 can be move around because the degrees of difference between them is very few. The other factor regarding value here, is if that player is out, is there a competent backup. That is huge and must be considered in the debate.
Hofe, my point is (has been) about ‘value.’
I suggested this to Grant last week because his ‘best player’ ranking did not determine who carried the most value to the teams success.
In any case, I don’t believe we are a Superbowl contender without Alex Smith. CK is not ready. JJ needs to acclimate himself with offensive players. And Tolz has not done anything since looking good against us while still with San Diego. Alex is #2 for me.
I gave my 5 (my opinion, and totally subjective), based on Grant’ list of 5.
It’s sad when an QB from an opposing team is more understanding of the road Alex Smith has traveled in the NFL.
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/07/brees-on-smith-hes-come-up-the-hard-way-and-hes-handled-it-very-well.html
@midwest
I always liked Brees. Among all the non-Niner QB’s, I like him the most. Great guy. Works hard. Had throwing mechanic issues. Passed over. Now, he may be the best QB in the NFL. Of all the supposed “elite” QB’s, his skills and abilities would translate most easily to the Niners. What he can do, he can do on any team. I feel he can do that more so than any other QB at this point in time. His skills to me are less “system” than TB/AR/EM. Brees is the kind of QB I can see AS becoming now that AS has a real coach. Their careers have some similarities. And among active good players, there are not a lot of other players who have gone thru what AS has. Brees being the only one I can think of who has had to overcome some of those same problems most players never overcome.
I also like how Brees went out to help the QB who beat him in the playoffs. How many people would go out of their way and tell the guy who beat them how to get better? In any profession?
My quick personal take on why Brees has not resigned yet with the Saints is because he loves his HC. Like most of us, we emulate those who have helped us achieve greatness. And now Brees is having to figure out how he can emulate a HC who implemented the bounty program and other such nonsense. Drew is nothing like that. So how can the guy most responsible for his success be like that?
That’s what I’m hoping for. I’m looking forward to seeing the Niners hoist up their sixth Lombardi Trophy at the conclusion of this upcoming season.
@MWN:
Brees isn’t a real fan. His opinions don’t matter.
Did I say he was? I said that it’s sad when a QB from an opposing team has a better understanding of the road Alex Smith has traveled in the NFL. And his opinion matters because he had a similar he went down.
…similar road he went down. This Android is a pain.
@MWN:
Sorry, my comment was meant as a tongue-in-cheek reference to those Alex haters who claim that anyone who disputes their anti-Alex assertions is not a real fan. I should have made it more obvious.
It’s all good. I probably could have my response seem less terse.
@midwest
How about a Saints fan saying something similar? Fans of opposing teams like the guy and what he did more than some here. What kind of world are we living in?
@MWN
Did you expect Brees to say anything negative regarding a fellow QB?
Grant, why isn’t Whitner on this list? I would actually take Aldon Smith off because Haralson is a reliable backup and can be a starter as well. Whitner is the QB of the defense since he relays plays to the rest of the D that come in from the sideline, plus there isn’t a solid backup in case he goes down.
Btw, good read.
To DemNiners4Real who said “Quite sure patriots didnt think brady was ready either”, that is about the most ignorant statement I think I’ve ever read about football. ONE unknown player does very well, therefore Tolzien, Kaep, and Johnson have a good chance of being a Tom Brady. I have a bridge I want to sell you, please contact me asap!!!!!
The same can be said about you knowing they wont. Is Alex Smith a Tom Brady right now? Nope. And thats an actual fact. What no Faith in Harbaughs QB Guruness? Thats a shame Man
Tom Brady was a once in a lifetime scenario. Sometimes better to be lucky than good.
Kurt Warner
Brett Favre
Jeff Garcia
Rich Gannon
Joe Montana – Not completely unknown but he was a 3rd rounder.
Bart Starr
Mark Rypien
Houston,
Many of the guys you listed had kicked around the league or in Garcia’s case was a long time pro in the CFL before they found success in the NFL. There is no exact science to finding a QB. Sometimes they are great right out of the shoot, and other times they find success later on in their careers. Some never find it at all.
Thanks for proving my point Rocket. Hof said, “Tom Brady was a once in a lifetime scenario. Sometimes better to be lucky than good.”
I gave him a list of guys who teams took a chance on that no one could have predicted the success they would attain. As you say, there is no exact science to finding a QB. Teams may have been lucky to find these guys but Tom Brady was not a once in a lifetime scenario. There is a long history of teams that signed a guy thinking developmental project or backup or even 3rd stringer and they lucked into finding a Pro Bowl QB. Only one on my list attained Brady’s greatness but they still were great QB’s when not much was expected of them.
Houston, wow you know how to twist the bull.
My point was TBrady was a 6th round draft choice that replaced an injured DBledsoe who was a 1st round #1 pick. TB then kept the position and played at such a high level to the point of becoming a HOF QB. This is the once in a lifetime scenario I was referring to not what you state, “list of guys who teams took a chance on that no one could have predicted the success they would attain”.
Good try though…
Hof,
Brady is certainly the star of the very long shot QB list who attained greatness but there have been quite a few guys where teams lucked into something unexpected and found a QB who won a Superbowl.
Agreed Houston, but I don’t think Hof was saying there weren’t different ways to find QB’s.
@ Rocket,
Not sure where you’re coming from with that. I didn’t say Hof made any reference to all the ways teams find QB’s. Hof said Brady was a once in a lifetime circumstance. I simply gave a list of guys who many teams passed over and some took quite a circuitous route to greatness.
Houston,
I mean I don’t think hofer is saying there aren’t different examples of QB’s becoming great; just that Brady’s situation was unique in that there aren’t many examples like his of a 6th round pick taking over in his second year and becoming one of the best QB’s in NFL history. It doesn’t happen very often.
Cam Newton
Aw, C’mon; unknown?
Bart Starr-starting QB for Alabama
Joe Montana-Notre Dame
Tom Brady- Michigan
The starting QB for those institutions, among others, are hardly unknowns.
Can’t argue with under-rated (by draft experts).
1. Justin Smith
2. Patrick Willis
3. Alex Smith
4. Donte Whitner
5. Alex Boone
Need to make a revision here:
5a. Vernon Davis
5b. Alex Boone
Honorable mention goes to Frank Gore, Navarro Bowman, Joe Staley, and Ahmad Brooks.
How could Alex Smith be the 3rd most important player based on injury yet rank 24′th out of 25′th in terms of player importance. Grant, seriously are you making this up akin the way?
I agree with the list however, with the recent brain farts the most valuable player may not be on the team for a significant period of time should he “brrrrt” again. That’s why I would add 1b: his clone, without the gas.
@Razor
Cam Johnson may get a little bit longer look at making this roster now.
Well there has to be a contingency plan, because he has created doubt in my mind that he has fully bought into Coach Harbaughs’ mentality. Twice he has put his own selfish desires above the team thereby jeapordizing a 6th World Championship. Whether that plan is Mr. Johnson or Mr. Umenyiora, I’m confident Godfather Fangio has it.
1) Justin Smith – he makes Aldon, Isaac and the linebackers look better
2) Patrick Willis – I waffled a lot on this but the emergence of Bowman moves Willis behind Smith
3) Alex Smith – the Adequate One can be relied on to not eff it up and has shown flashes of actual talent. The backups are unknown quantities.
4) Frank Gore – cross our fingers he has one more great season in him. The offense completely disappears when he isn’t on his game
5) Aldon Smith – passing and rushing the passer are king in the NFL. With Aldon on the field the 49ers at least have half of the equation.
This is the question I pose: could a Brady, Breese or Manning (either or) be able to come in, right now, and pull off a SB season? I ask this because I’m wondering how much of raw talent vs team chemistry would make a difference? Alex is a decent QB, but nothing like the afore mentioned talent; he’s hesitate and easily riled. He throws at ankles or passes sail over receivers heads, but he has shown the propensity to gel with his line- and they respond. Would the elite QBs mentioned just be able to come in and figure out the PB on the fly? Get instant continuity with their receiving corps and OL? It’s an interesting question but truthfully I’d even take the # 2 QB in this line of questioning simply because they’ve learned the book and know their team. I’m interested to see if you think this is poor thinking.
Brady- No.
Peyton- No.
Brees- Absolutely yes.
Brady and Manning would be sitting ducks in the Niner offense. With Brees, no new offense would have to be implemented and he wouldn’t be a statue just waiting to be crushed.
I would take Brees and Brady in a NY second.
@tucson
The only important question is “Does QB x give us a better chance to win (not throw more yards) given what he has/does with his current team and can do the same on this team more so than AS does?”
The question though is always stuck on the wrong one. “Is QB x better than AS?”
QB’s are the product of a system. Makes sense. QB’s are not individual parts. Where you can take them out of their current system and put them into a new system as one might do with a nail used to hold up picture A and picture B on a wall.
But people ask the wrong question. Therefore they get the wrong answers and nothing changes/improves. The cycle repeats until you get the CAPS and **** present in some persons posts used as if it makes them right.
“Do Brady, Manning, Brees give us a better chance to win given what he has/does with his current team and can do the same on this team more so than AS does?”
Brady – absolutely yes
Manning – yes for both Mannings
Brees – yes
To that list add:
Stafford
Ryan
Newton
Rodgers
Freeman
Rothlisberger
Cutler
That’s all moot though because good quarterbacks only hit free agency every 10 years or so. Alex is the guy we’re stuck with in 2012 because the alternatives are worse.
msc,
Of that list I would only take Rodgers or Newton. The others are not upgrades.
Agree with you that Smith is the best option for the next year or two, and maybe even more depending on his growth with Harbaugh.
You’d have to at least consider Ryan. He’s a rich man’s Alex Smith.
Ben and Cutler are upgrades on the field but off the field… yeah – I’d prefer Alex on the 49ers. No one can say Alex is a douche-bag.
msc,
Smith had more success in one playoff year than Ryan has ever had. Ryan is fools gold. Good in the regular season, but falls apart when it matters. Nobody had more weapons than this guy and he QB’d them to no points against the Giants in the playoffs. This is what makes me shake my head when our own fans look at QB’s around the league. Ryan has never done what Smith did against the Saints in the playoffs, yet you praise him. Unbelievable.
Freeman? Are you serious? Did you watch how bad this guy was last year? Cutler? You mean the guy who will always throw the back breaking pick in crunch time?
All I can say is be careful what you wish for.
“This is the question I pose: could a Brady, Breese or Manning (either or) be able to come in, right now, and pull off a SB season?”
Possibly…and the odds get even better with these all-star players on the team as well:
DWare at OLB
JAllen at DE
CJohnson at WR
Maurice Jones-Drew at RB
Larry Fitzgerald at WR
Since we are talking in hypotheticals, who do you want as the all-star HC (TCoughlin)??!!! What’s the point of this playing interchanging NFL all star players with players on the 9ers? What point is this proving?
@Rocket Alex is a very efficient quarterback but he’s not very productive.
All of the QBs I listed are efficient AND productive.
I love your dismissal of Ryan. Name me one NFL GM who would take Alex over Matt. Just one.
But hey, you know more than the guys who actually played the position and you know more than guys who are paid to evaluate talent in the NFL. You know more than all the guys who rank those quarterbacks ahead of your Precious.
Why aren’t you working for an NFL front office?
msc,
You can call him whatever you want, call me whatever you want, and it doesn’t change the facts. Ryan has never gotten it done in the playoffs the way Smith did last year.
I have never proclaimed to know more than NFL people, it would be stupid to do so, but I can look at players individually. If I do that, I see that Matt Ryan has superior players around him, and yet couldn’t lead his team to a single freaking point against the Giants in the playoffs. That is on the heels of two other one and done playoff performances. While on the other side, here’s Precious (just for you) with one decent WR, coming within an OT fumble of leading his team to the SB.
Feel free to keep believing in Matt Ryan or even Freeman as ridiculous as that is. Continue to overlook the fact that Roethlisberger put up stats similar to Smith both years the Steelers won the SB. All that matters to me is winning and Smith did that last year. If he continues to win, the views of him will gradually change and people will be forced to give up their preconcieved negative views of him. If he doesn’t keep winning, he’ll be replaced, the TRUE fans will rejoice and we can move on from the underlying topic of every thread. It’s a win win.
Biggest impact players are the ones we can’t lose if we want to win the SB.
P Willis makes the single biggest impact.
Vernon davis
Aldon smith
Justin smith
Alex smith
Carlos rogers
I agree with the fact Alex is needed. We’ve all heard harbaugh talk about how much ahead of the pack of the QBs, he is. The man knows what he’s doing.
I’m really surprised at all the votes for Willis as the #1 or #2 guy. The Niners really didn’t miss a beat without him last year. They won 3 out of the 4 games he was injured. He is a great player, but with the talent around him, he can be replaced for short periods of time effectively.
Totally agree, its not a slam on Willis its that we have a very good backup in Grant.
Goldson and Whitner need to be on the list.
Bad list Grant IMO.
This is better:
1: Patrick Willis
2: Justin Smith
3: Vernon Davis
4: Aldon Smith
5: Navarro Bowman
6: Mike Iupati
7: Carlos Rogers
8: Chris Culliver
9: Michael Crabtree
10: Ray Mac
Worst one yet and that’s saying something.
worst comment bro!
Interesting list. I think you must take into account the dropoff between starter and backup in this equation. The 9ers defense took the leap from very good to great once they actually found an effective pass rusher in Aldon Smith. He will be critical to success but I wouldn’t put him at #1. Here’s my list:
1. Justin Smith – He’s basically Captain America on the football field. Great Leader. Great heart. Great Motor. It seems to me he raises the level of play of everyone around him. Other guys feed off his energy.
2. Patrick Willis – Best LB in football. Nuff said.
3. Joe Staley – Maybe not the best tackle in football but who is going to replace him? The 9ers would have a huge hole on the line without this guy.
4. Aldon Smith – No more trying to make guys like Manny Lawson into bein a pass rusher. Lawson was a good LB but really good pass rushers are hard to find and this guy is the real deal. Not another guy on the roster who can do what Aldon can do to an opponents offense.
5. Vernon Davis – His speed at the TE position is unmatched in the NFL. He creates match up problems for every team. If the 9ers had better WRs in years past they could have taken advantage of all the mismatches caused by Vernon Davis. He is a game changer. I think it took Harbaugh a little while to know what he had in Davis but toward the end of last year Davis was a beast. Look for a huge year out of Davis next year.
I would have gone with punt returner after what happened in the NFC Championship game but I think Harbaugh will find some better backups for that position next year.
Houston,
I think you must take into account the dropoff between starter and backup in this equation
You make this statement and do you rankings completely ignoring it. Willis was replaced very effictively last year by Grant. Justin Smith while very tough to replace would be offset by the talent in the front 7. Aldon Smith’s backup is a guy who has started for us previously.
I agree with VD and Staley. They would be very difficult to replace as there really are no replacements.
Your list is more best player than most valuable player. There is no bigger dropoff on this team than QB, TE and OT imo.
“your” and “effectively”, must slow down on the typing.
Really rocket? You want to get into this again?
I didn’t ignore anything.
IMO Patrick Willis is the best LB in football bar none. Grant played admirably in Willis’ absence but he is not in the same tier as Willis. Willis’ speed allows him to go sideline to sideline and make plays all over the field. Grant is not able to do that. I almost put Bowman on this list as well but I think the falloff from Bowman to Grant is not as significant as Willis to Grant.
Justin Smith is the heart of the d-line. He is IMO the best d lineman in all of football. The 9ers have exceptional players in the front 7 but they all seem to feed off Smith’s tenacity. The impact to the entire front 7 if Justin Smith were not able to play would be significant. Smith is the player who hustled downfield to strip Jeremy Maclin in a game clinching play against the Eagles. Smith is the player who had the smarts to stay in the B gap and knock down Manning’s pass to secure the win against the Giants. If the 9ers lost this guy it would be a HUGE blow to the defense. That is why he made my list.
Aldon Smith adds a dimension to the defense that no one else on the team possesses. He is a top tier pass rusher in this league. Those guys are few and far between. Aldon Smith’s impact on the opponent is significant. Without Aldon, the threat of a pass rush is greatly diminished.
Let’s just be honest here. What really has your panties in a bunch is that I didn’t have Alex Smith on this list. You say “Your list is more best player than most valuable player. There is no bigger dropoff on this team than QB, TE and OT imo.” Well I have the TE and OT on my list so you really only have a problem with the QB spot. I pretty much agree with Grant when he said, “Colin Kaepernick or Josh Johnson could be the worst QB on third down and in the red zone for way cheaper. ” IMO Harbaugh would be able to do with Johnson, CK, or Tolzien what he did with Alex Smith – play to his strengths and limit his weaknesses. Harbaugh is the wild card in the QB gap analysis. The dropoff between Alex and the other guys is not as significant because Harbaugh won’t allow the offense to expose weak QB play which is exactly what he did with Smith last year.
Houston,
You keep trying to portray me as a Smither or whatever the term is currently, but I’m simply pointing out that you and MD are missing a key point in your rankings.
Willis is the best ILB in football. No argument from me. I also agree on the value of Justin Smith. He’s great and is the emotional leader of our great defense. Both are better football players than Alex Smith. However, our Defense is full of talented players that can pick up the slack if we lose one of these guys. I know this because we saw it last year. We lost one game in 4 without Willis and it was the Arizona game where two big plays decided the game in which Goldson was involved. The defense did not take a major step back without Willis.
In the case of Justin Smith, we’ve never lost him so I don’t know how we’d adjust, but with the talent this front 7 possess’ I think they’d figure it out, and there is a solid backup who’s played a fair bit in RJF.
The reason I said you ignored the point I hilighted is because the QB position is the most important position on the field, we have no experience behind Smith and his play was a big reason the defense was as good as they were, in that he didn’t put them in bad positions to defend short fields. MD completely overlooks this as well and it’s not as simple as you guys make it out to be.
When you make comments like: IMO Harbaugh would be able to do with Johnson, CK, or Tolzien what he did with Alex Smith – play to his strengths and limit his weaknesses
You completely overlook what is involved with playing in the system and how important it is to limit mistakes. You honestly think Kap or Tolzien could play a season without making a bunch of mistakes at this point in their development? Do you think they can read a defense as well as an 8 year vet? Do you think they would have the poise not to force a throw that isn’t there? If you answer yes, then that is your right but it isn’t logical thinking. A QB as raw as Kap doesn’t come in and play like Smith did last year, and from what I’ve read of OTA’s, he’s still got some growing to do. He may get there one day, maybe even this season, but at this point in time, the dropoff from Smith to Kap is significant and the fact it is the most important position in football, makes Smith the guy we can least afford to lose imo. Tolzien and JJ are going to be fighting for the 3rd QB spot for a reason. They are both limited players at this point in time. JJ has a poor record and stats with the time he’s played, and Tolzien has never taken a regular season snap. This is what I mean about you ignoring the dropoff you stated in your post.
rocket
When JS played the Rams, we were dominating them in the season finale. JS came out, Rams suddenly look good and nearly come back…until JS re-entered the game, and the Rams once again sucked.
Don’t know how much clearer it is that JS has no adequate replacement.
JS also clears the pass rushing lane by taking out two (and blocking off another with his body on a play I saw mid year) to allow AldSmith to get a sack. He has done this many times in 2011. That is why I believe JS should be ranked #1. The defense is the best unit on the team and JS is the main factor with PW right behind.
Agree hof. Though Grant did force a fumble late in a game last season (AZ?) that sealed it for the Niners. So we know Grrant is good and has produced in crunch time. The same can’t be said of JS back-ups.
@ Rocket,
So you don’t have a problem with my overall rankings. You just have a problem with the absence of the QB from the list. As I’ve previously stated on this blog, The QB is the most important position on the field. A very important factor -perhaps the most important factor- in reaching the Superbowl is having a QB playing at a Pro Bowl level. So if you ask me to rank the positions that are critical to achieving success then I would list QB as #1. My opinion of Alex Smith is that he’s an average QB that had a good year. In my opinion, there will be a drop off if he’s injured next year. I don’t believe the dropoff would be as large as you think it would be and I base my opinion on the success of Jim Harbaugh taking a QB that basically no other team wants and turning him into a pretty good QB. Every QB Harbaugh has ever worked with has been successful. Harbaugh turned Josh Johnson into an NFL QB from San Diego University. Harbaugh turned Andrew Luck into the #1 pick in the NFL draft. Harbaugh turned Alex Smith into a serviceable QB and he played better than I ever thought he would. Why would you think Harbaugh couldn’t do the same with any of the backups? Harbaughs history shows any QB with which he works has success. That’s why I didn’t have Smith on the list. Harbaugh has a long history of working wonders with QB’s so I don’t think the drop off would be huge.
Houston,
I don’t believe the dropoff would be as large as you think it would be and I base my opinion on the success of Jim Harbaugh taking a QB that basically no other team wants and turning him into a pretty good QB.
Fair enough and you made solid points. This seems to be the biggest difference in our views. I think the dropoff would be large enough to cost us a chance at a SB and you don’t.
Honestly, I hope you’re right. If Smith falters or gets injured, we’ll need the backups to be as good as you envision them to be to have a chance. I have a lot of faith in Harbaugh, but it’s tough to have young inexperienced players ready to step in.
To think that a 2nd year QB in Kap could lead this team without a drop off is ridiculous. No way Kap has seen enough or learnt enough about the NFL game to be ready to lead the Niners to the playoffs.
Same can be said for Josh Johnson who has historically struggled his entire career in being able to read defense. This is why he never got a chance in TB and why they let him walk for nothing. If he was NFL starter calibre, the Bucs would have traded him long ago, just like the Eagles did with Kolb. But everyone knew this about JJ, and this is why he will be a career backup.
Sure Harbaugh is a QB guru but at the end of the day, its up to the player to make the reads and make thr throws and work within the offensive system. Alex is the right guy for the job and you guys can debate that for the next 10 years, bottom line, the organization believes in him, low ball offer, Manning pursuit and all other things the haters want to hitch their argument to, Alex Smith is the guy, like it or hate it, or continue to bore yourself and the rest of the fanbase with the same tired debate.
@FDM
JH has said “AS is our guy.” To reasonable people, the discussion ends there. HC publically states who is the QB, that is the end of it. Not for our special needs friends here though.
Want to see major flip-flopping by a HC/GM on who their starting QB is? Check out the KC Chiefs and MC. Something that would make a politician look pale by comparison. WOW!
I saw the headline of the article and came up with my 5 before I clicked. For whatever it’s worth it was the same 5, so kudos to me. Or you. I guess.
At the moment Alex is in the top five. That might change at the end of pre-season, as we dont really know what we have in our backups. Its quite possible that CK, JJ, and ST emerge as a bona-fide backup/starter. I really hope one of them steps up as if Alex gets crunched like he did last year there is a good chance of injury.
I agree UC. The list could look different if one of the QB’s, or even better, all of them, step up and show they can play if needed.
1. Justin. He makes not only the other linemen but the ILBs better. Single best player on the team, and the biggest dropoff to any oncceivable replacement.
2. Aldon. Teams with pass rush win. Teams without it usually don’t. Brooks is solid; Aldon is a star ascending.
3. Donte Whitner. Don’t laugh. Who replaces him if he goes down? C.J. Spilman – except, look, he might need to play FS if Goldson stays stuck on stupid with his franchise tag issues. We are potentially one Whitner knee from starting Spilman and a 6th round pick at safety together. Ask that Saint RB how much better he’d like that.
4. Andy Lee. Field possession has an effect out of all proportion to how often a punter is on the field. Andy Lee wins games for us.
5. Vernon Davis – Walker is a good TE after years of working on his game, but VD is a walking mismatch and a beast in-line.
6. Alex Smith. He may not be an All-Pro, but until one of his would-be contenders proves themselves, he stays on this list.
7. Moss. No Moss: probably no super bowl. He gives us the explosion we need. Now just as long as it is not Randy who explodes…
8. Willis. Only because Grant opened some eyes.
9. Bowman, ditto.
10. Gore. Yeah we have other guys, but no one who measures up in terms of blocking as well as running.
1.) Alex Smith
2.) Vernon Davis
3.) Joe Staley
4.) Anthony Davis
5.) Justin Smith
Great list
I agree with Grant. That is a really good list Jack. I didn’t give much thought to Davis, but if he went down it would cause some serious problems. This is definitely a list that would hurt the team severely to lose.
It’s a good list but Staley or Davis could be replaced by Alex Boone (moved over from starting right guard) who many believe had an outstanding offseason and is arguably the 5th best lineman. DKilg could move into right guard and play equally as well as ASnyder did last year. These two are more athletic than CRachel and ASnyder.
Hofer,
That is a lot of juggling for the most important group on the team when it comes to communication and cohesiveness.
Not the best way to protect the player who is most important to the success of your team.
Jack, not disagreeing, as I said I like your list. Staley and ADavis should be high on the list but not to the same degree as some others. Regarding your argument of juggling, same could be said of JGoodwin and MIupati. Who would replace them seemlessly without juggling?
*seamlessly*
Kilgore.
He can replace any of the interior linemen without anyone moving, very simple. Not as easy if something happens to Staley or Davis.
How about Accepts’ new song ‘Us Against The World’ for the 49ers Official Theme Song?
Hey Grant, do you feel like Mr. Brown could provide competition for Mr. Johnson to back up Mr. Smith?
Something completely off topic, but a really great way to spend a few minutes reliving the magic of this past season.
http://vimeo.com/44971571
Ah the Alex Smith storm… nothing like it. I can take a break for a month, come back and it’s still raging on.
Alex Smith, “flashes of excellence”, what games were you watching?
If this guy was any good we would have been in the Superbowl. I actually think ol Alex will regress this season and we will have a bumpy ride.
I like the optimism about Aldon Smith, but he could turn out to have his head not screwed on straight. He’s a relative unknown quantity compared to Justin Smith, who has for years been: a) the best player on this team and b) the most underrated player in the NFL.
I also think Iupati this year is going to be huge in the run game. This will be his breakout season, I hope. He’s a monster, we’re loaded at RB, and he will pave the way. I’d make him #3.
Wow, I’ve found a home of like-minded folks.
We have some serious drop off on OL. I think Willis is one player we can lose. We have great ILBs. We cannot make much judgement about QB cause we don’t know much about what these other QBs would look like. So that could or could not be accurate. But I think that losing any of the OL could be disastrous. I also think that D-Love fills in ok for VD. He is not a bad replacement. I do agree with Justin Smith. I think he is #1. I think any 2 OL are on the list. Take Patrick and VD off. I think we need Aldon to play like he did last year. But truthfully we could lose him without losing him. It is possible that he will have a sophomore slump, and I agree that would be disastrous.
I thought you were a nutcase, after reading your second sentence.
Fabulous, what a blog it is! This blog provides valuable data to us, keep it up.