Football Outsiders just published their 2012 Football Almanac. You can purchase it here for $12.50. I get nothing for this. I am not associated with Football Outsiders. I merely give the link as a service to my readers.
They project the Niners to win 7.2 regular season games next season – of course, not exactly 7.2 games; that’s just the average of a million simulations they did. Please don’t attack me for linking to this. I don’t have an axe to grind and Football Outsiders is a highly-respected publication. I’m merely trying to start discussion. Football Outsiders also projects the Seahawks to win 7.2 games, for what it’s worth.
Football Outsiders says the Niners are due for a bounce back year, a regression to the mean. They even cite the famous baseball statistician Bill James’ “plexiglass principle.” Here’s an excerpt from the almanac: “The 49ers actually won 2.2 more games in 2011 than they should have according to Estimated Wins. Since 1991, that discrepancy translates to about two more losses the following season. The 49ers outperformed their Estimated Wins number due in part to a fabulous 7-2 record in close games. We’ve found that a team’s record in close games almost never carries over from one season to the next, so the 49ers can’t expect to win as many games in 2012 without getting out to some bigger leads.”
The almanac also cites other outstanding statistics the 49ers most likely will not duplicate next season: “Although Alex Smith has posted a better-than-average interception rate in each of the past two seasons, his 1.1-percent rate from 2011 is unsustainable…Only 5.4 percent of 49ers offensive drives ended in a turnover, the lowest figure in our drive stats data that goes back to 1997. 23.9 percent of 49ers drives ended in a field goal, the highest figure since 1997.”
FYI – MGM just listed the Niners as 4-1 Super Bowl favorites. Obviously, experts have varying opinions on the subject.
Update: Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief and ESPN NFL Analyst Aaron Schatz just tweeted this: “Yes, 49ers fans, 7.2 seems a little low to me too, but that’s what the equations spat out. I’m expecting 9-7 or so.”
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What, me worry?
Nah!
This are not the Nolantery years when F.O. correctly predicted the Niners regular season record to be 6-10, when some of us were dreaming of post-season play.
I do not believe the “plexi” theory applies to the niners. They have had the talent to win over 9 games for a few years, but severly lacked good coaching.
Also many teams that have a steller year, lose many players to free agency.
10-6, book it. NFC West isn’t improving that much. On the road in GB, NE & NO are the big tests. If they go 1-2 in those games, that’s a small success.
I belieevwe will beat GB, NO, NE. Our record will be 11-5.
If we beat all three of them then what 5 games do you have us losing???
Seahawks split
Rams Split
Cards Split
Vikes
Jets
I think if we beat GB we will have an outstanding year. What a way to start the new season.
If we split with the Rams then we are sorely overrated. I would hope we would be at least 4-2 in the division. Even under Singletary we were 5-1 in the division. 3-3 would be a huge failure.
Let me get this straight…we have the best rushing defense in the league last year but you expect us to beat 3 of the top passing offenses at their house but lose to the the Vikes and Jets? Two teams who rely very much on their running games? Division games could go either way so I won’t comment on those but sounds like you just picked 2 games out of a hat.
If Smith can play almost as good as Cam Newton, we will win the SB with roller skates on. Otherwise, if he plays like Alex Smith of old (conservative, hesitant, checkdowns, roll outs, and only makes the occasional big play when there is a gun to his head), we probably will make it to the playoffs but not the NFC championship game. Our D and ST can’t keep carrying this team forever.
How many playoff games did Cam win? Play in? What was his TD to INT ratio? How many comeback victories did he have? And what was his teams record.
lol I love this reasoning. Cam Newton set records as a rookie with no offseason to learn his offense. His defense was terrible but you’re going to blame him for the team losing and him not winning a playoff game?
What a joke…
I wouldn’t say the Defense carried this team so much as the Opposing Offenses did. Throw the ball into traffic consistently enough, it’s going to get picked.
For 15 games of the season the Opposing Offense had NO choice but to go to the air. The 9ers Run Defense knocked 6 Running Backs out for a good part of the season. Thus ending any hope of a consistent Running game and the Losses piled on as a result of meeting up with our team. Yeah turnovers played a big part in the Wins, but if the QB wasn’t as focused and consistent as Smith was for us no amount of Defense is going to offset that.
I keep saying it and I’ll keep banging this drum loudly but only ONE of the 4k QBs’ had ~10 picks and that was Rodgers. ALL of the 4k-5k QBs’ Defenses were ranked 20 or lower. If your Defense is hemorrhaging yards and points to their Opponent you’ve got to have an Offense that can answer that in kind. Smith didn’t have the Yards but that’s cause he didn’t have to. But the one thing he did have? Time of Possession on his side. With a solid Run game behind him and a Defense that doesn’t cough up big yards and scores consistently both on the ground and in the air who gives a Rip whether the QB has 300+ Yards? As long as we come away with a W that’s all I care about.
I used to have this argument with Elway and Marino fans back when Joe was the QB. Their argument falls apart after yards and TDs’. Cause Joe had Wins. I hope to see Smith finish out his career over a .700 Win record. I should think that all 9er fans would want to see this. Not that you’re dissin Smith nf, just saying that this is what we should all wish for our often maligned QB. I don’t think Smith gets near enough credit for what he brings to the game. Which is to be expected due to the W/L record this team posted since ’05. I just think that he takes a lot of the heat for things that he had zero control over. A head coach that gets conservative after 1 score will lose more games than a QB who has a 2-3 pick day imho. ;)
Nice points ceadderman.
Though I’d add our ST as huge reasons for our advantage. We entered every game last year being better than our opponent in 2/3 units.
Now that AS has some weapons for the first time in 8 years, he’ll show the world why the Pack coach chose him.
One thing no one gives Alex credit for, his will to win. The guy just wants to win so badly, you can’t coach that!
I wonder if you actually read what you write DS. DS must stand for Dip Sh!t.
This is the NFL. This isn’t Madden’12. It takes time to develop the timing and the chemistry to hit receivers. Just because there are weapons there doesn’t mean that all of a sudden a QB with an average of 7 yards per a completion is going to triple that number.
Ho-hum.
Another expert here to tell me our D and ST weren’t great last year. Please enlighen us all. I can’t wait to hear it. Hey genius. I was here all last season talking about why the passing game wasn’t up to speed with the running game. And guess what I said a lot of times? Passing take reps. Reps take time. Time that we didn’t have.
By the way this is a football blog. You aint got any to discuss please leave. Nobody will care. You really don’t know much of anything if you don’t know what I was writing all last year. Way to come on here and make yourself into the name you called me.
Congrats!
This says it all,
“Now that AS has some weapons for the first time in 8 years, he’ll show the world why the Pack coach chose him.”
+1 Jason I agree that I don’t think the offense is going to shine this year just yet. I expect a let down on D and ST. Not to the point of a collasp, just not +26 and 2/3
Ceddarman, I’d like to see Alex Smith unleashed a bit. I expect while they try to work out timing you’ll see some tipped INTs which I don’t think should ever go against a QB. It should be scored the same as a fumble.
It’s called being a fan medic.
Give me a good reason why any team who had stunk for nearly decade should be a fan. There is none except you are emotionally tied into that team.
PS
Last year in mid-season when the Lombardi was being engraved with the Pack, I said they wouldn’t get the opportunity to play us in the title game. Turned out to be right. The Pack had it easy last year. Didn’t overcome any real trouble. Got to the playoffs and played a Giants team who had gone thru everything and got whopped big time at home. Giants gave them hardship and they didn’t know how to reply.
I wasn’t shocked at all the Giants won. I was kinda more worried about them more because they had the revenge bonus on us. The Pack, would have none.
Harbaugh is a long-term difference maker, in my opinion. 13 wins last year may have exceeded expectations, but I don’t think we’re reverting to some statistical mean from the past decade either. Harbaugh will keep the Niners competitive consistently. He has a proven track record.
Yes, I agree. I think SF had playoff calibur talent for several years before they actually made it, but they were held back because of bad coaching. SF didn’t all of a sudden rise up and overachieve. They were consistent underachievers who finally played to their potential because of good coaching.
Without reading anything but what GC posted here I find it very interesting that we were projected by this same system to win 10.8 games last season.(The 49ers actually won 2.2 more games in 2011 than they should have according to Estimated Wins; 13-2.2) Who in the world was projecting that we were going to win 11 games last year?? Not even the silliest drunk on punch fans could say before last season without a smirk that we had a chance at winning 11 games. The 13-3 season was clearly a shock but now it’s a year later, we’ve improved the team and have a better track record but the computer is predicting less wins then last season when it had even less reason to predict the 10.8 wins? This does not compute.
If you want something equally as valid I’ll go play my Madden NFL Coach game and have it repeat this season 1000 times and I’ll give you our true predicted record.
Could you go ahead and do that? Cuz some of us here would like you to take a break. TIA.
That’s quite a contribution there Fabio, did you think it all up yourself or have you been trolling other boards looking for the right thing to respond with?
schmuk
Fabio, parla Italiano?
@Ted Stryker
you still here?
49ers had a mean projection of 7.5 wins last year, not 10.8
The quoted article said this” “The 49ers actually won 2.2 more games in 2011 than they should have according to Estimated Wins” So they estimated us to win 10.8 games. Now we’re projected to win 7.2 games according to the projection. I’m asking why are we projected to win less games after having a better year then we were the year before after a less then average season?
Ted, for some reason I can’t reply directly to your reply, so I’m just replying to my comment. We’re talking about two different projections. Grant posted the 7.2, which is the “mean projection.” That quote of 10.8 is estimated wins, which is a different stat.
Does this compute ==> almost every 13-3 team in the last 20 years has done worse the next year. A lot of things have to go right for even the best team to hit 13 – 3, and everything typically does not go right two years in a row. If we play the Eagles again, does J. Smith make that last minute ball strip? Doubtful. Does A. Smith play like Dan Marino for 15 seconds and beat the Saints in a thrilling upset? Doubtful again. Do we maintain a statistically unsustainable turnover margin? Also very doubtful. This is not about hating on our team, it’s just about what the stats have shown with just about every other team that has done what we did in 2011, along with their follow up performance the following year.
Do we not recover that fumble that led to the loss to Dallas? Doubtful. Do we lose to one of the final four teams due to a 4 day turnaround and cross country travel. No, we do not. Does the secondary make a tackle or two, keeping Larry Fiftgerald out of the end zone and an unlikely AZ win? I wouldn’t bet against it. Do we again gift the Giants two SP TOs giving them the margin of victory? No way!
For every reason you mention why we won and shouldn’t have I can mention just as many why we lost and shouldn’t have. It averages out. And for a good team like ours, it more than averages out in our favor.
Ok, found my answer up here. 11 games they were supposed to win last year? Really?
Well, looks like the NFL wasn’t aware of it at all. Or the media. Or anybody who votes for HC of the year. If we were supposed to win 11 games last year, winning 13 isn’t all that big a deal. Not even close to HC of the year.
Now, if were supposed to win like 6 games if 6 of our visiting teams planes couldn’t land on time due to weather concerns and we won 6 games last year, that would be a huge accomplishment.
The Niners were hurt more than any team in the NFL due to the lockout. New HC/New philosophy/no QB signed who was going to be the starter during the lockout period. There were a few teams that might qualify under one or two of these facts, but nobody was remotely close to our teams problems due to the lockout.
Then we win 13 games. 2nd best in the whole NFL. Get to the title game. And if not for some bogus call (Fumble being whistled early) we go to the Super Bowl and TB learns what pain is. We get HC. And all this was predicted by Football outsiders? I don’t think so. No way do you know that we went almost all year without allowing a 100 yard rusher. No way you know AS throws only 5 Ints’s. Just a few years earlier, he threw 5 Int’s in less than several games! No way do you know our ST is the best in the NFL. And one can make a good argument for our D being the best as well.
They were predicted to win 7.5 games by the FOs. They were also voted the most likely to exceed expectations because they had the easiest schedule by FO’s standards.
The actual stats in each game is ran through a simulator and they should have lost two more games than they did. It didn’t ever “predict” 11 wins. It just is saying that from a game stat view, the way things played out in their sims after plugging in all the real time data, the 49ers eeked out two extra wins.
The prediction ended at 7.5.
Well, FO is a statistical analysis, or so it seems to me. It cannot predict when something outside the norm happens. Harbaugh seems to have instilled a toughness, won’t lost type of mentality in this team which will itself count for a couple of wins.
None of the losses last year were blowouts – showing this team doesnt take things lightly either.
No way I see 7.2 wins, the only way that happens if the injury bug strikes hard.
O_O… bite your tongue!
I won’t even mention what you said cause I believe once you say it it happens. So bite… your… tongue!
^_^
I did, as I typed.
Grant, no way am I going to shell out $12.50 for this horsepucky. But can you do us a favor and specify the teams FO think will be successful next season? Enough years of “regessions to the mean” and every team will eventually be 8-8, right?
Well if they’re only to win 7.2 of their games that would mean that all 3 Division Rivals should have more wins? The Rams might have a better season but I don’t see tha Seaturkies and the Tardinals having caught up to the 9ers in talent. They don’t even know who their QBs’ are going to be next year.
I see both teams getting better but not enough that they would retake the Division. They’re still gonna have to have a competition in their camps and I forget which team it was(I’m reasonably sure it was the Turkies) but one of the Coaches was saying that they would be naming their QB in the 2nd week of Preseason. I seem to remember the last Head Coach we had did the same thing in ’09 and look how well that worked out for us. I’ve never seen a QB competition that showed any promise after two weeks of evaluation in Preseason. Or a coach that did that, that was still around shortly afterward.
These “outsiders” must be golf experts. Do they have a clue on how the 49ers are doing? Geez, they play seattle, cards, and rams two times each, and that should be at least 5 wins, if not a full sweep of 6 right there.
9ers will be the first team since the ’72 Fins to have an undefeated season including a Super Bowl. *whistles* >_> lol
That’s why they actually put the pads on and play the game. Stats and simulations might work in a sport like baseball but they simply don’t work well for football.
It defies logic and common sense to predict the team will only have 7 wins. Even 9 wins is somewhat questionable.
The team either improved or stayed the same in every area and that’s based on a team that went 13-3 with a new coaching staff and a compressed offseason.
It likely won’t be another 13-3 season but a 6 win drop off is a pretty steep drop off.
Lets look at games here for a second and a 6 game swing isn’t unreasonable. They got very lucky to beat Philly. A forced fumble by a DE agaisnt a track star receiver caught from behind. You could have had 1 million to one odds of that happening. 1 loss.
Hunter doesn’t make it in the end zone on a 7 yard td, they lose the bengals game. Loss 2
Detroit game we got an extra 5 yards by the refs. If delanie walker drops that 4th down pass the game is over. Loss 3. Delanie Walker dropped several other easier catches than that one. Loss 3 out of the first 6 games.
It isn’t far fetched at all. The year before, all those breaks went the other way. We got flagged on ghost calls. Phantoms tackled Gore in the open field. Alex Smith forgot who was on the team when he dropped back to pass.
7-9 with the schedule is completely feasible. The offense isn’t going to click from game one, but the whole team will be challenged from game one.
Expect to see Moss give up by week 6. Which coincidently is the toughest part of their schedule.
@chris
Ok. We can play that game.
If our FA safety sees the ball on the ground on the last offensive play of the Dallas game, and just falls straight down, we win that game. 100% guarantee.
You can’ say that at all about the Philly game. What if MV threw for an Int? He had earlier in the game. What if JS gets 2 straight sacks and Aldon gets a 3rd ending the game? NO way can you say that is not possible.
JS is the best defensive player in the NFL. Has been for a long time. You forgot his “miracle” swat of the ball against the Giants regular season game on 4th down in the redzone. You forgot his awesome sacks and pressures he provided all last year? Drew Brees found out about him last playoffs. Why don’t you ask him about how “lucky” Justin Smith is?
It ain’t luck when you get to the ball carrier when he reaches the LOS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE LINE! almost every time in every game for several years on end!
It ain’t luck when the defense starts to fall apart the moment Justin smith is taken out in the last game of the year and the Rams score a lot. Then he comes back in, and the Rams immediately suck again. And it wasn’t luck a few years back when he was kicked out of the game, and the defense which was so great that game, lost it.
I usually try to avoid arguments on here. I just can’t resist here. No one said the 49ers were lucky. No one said Justin Smith wasn’t the best DE in the NFL.
I merely said that the ball bouncing the other way, like it did in 2010, wasn’t that far off for this team. They played lights out on D. They played lights out on special teams.
They DIDN’T play to win games on Offense, they played NOT TO LOSE.
The ball bouncing the other way could have changed any of the 16 games. So a 6 game swing isn’t unlikely when you are playing close games and just trying not to lose instead of blowing a team out.
I expect regression to the mean on defense. That does not mean I expect to have a horrible run of luck and a negative turnover ratio, I’m just expecting to be more like +10 or +12 instead of +26. I also expect modest improvement on offense with Moss and Boone. And more confident play calling by the coaching staff.
The big unknown is injuries. We were lucky last year. Contrary to what many people think, that has nothing to do with this year – there is no “Law of Averages” for purely chance events. Whether you get a head or a tail when you flip a coin, your odds the next time are still 50-50. So we could have another year with few injuries, we could have a more normal number, or we could get clobbered. Only time will tell. Most likely is a regression to the mean with more typical NFL numbers. (Because most teams, most years, are going to be close to the mean, not because of last year.)
With a more ‘normal’ injury year, I think 11-5 or 12-4 is very much possible. It would take a truly wretched injury year, and a lack of chemistry between Alex and Moss, to get us to seven wins, IMHO.
this is ridiculous. FO software is either horrible or they are trolling! This is the exact same as last years + new offensive weapons. Our schedule is harder but not that much. There are 3 or 4 games that are hard games. Green Bay obviously, but they are early in the season and we match up well. New Orleans is gonna be feeling the effect of their suspensions. I think we beat the patriots at home because we match up extremely well to them. Really our regular season doesn’t matter that much as long as get to the playoffs, which isn’t difficult in this weak NFC west. The only other real team is the Seahawks and sometime Cardinals. Once in the playoffs ESPN has us favorites to win the NFC. Remember we were a Kyle Williams fumble away from the super last year, and you are telling me the same is going to win 7-8 games this season. RETIRE. Quite your job now Football outsiders and leave.
I think I’ll just watch what happens this season. Equations have been proven wrong before.
These aren’t even equations. Equations have clearly defined variables. This is little more than educated guess work.
Agreed. I’m interested in how this “equation” would have been applied to the ’80′s dynasty.
I thought they had predicted around 4 wins for the Niners last season, or am I getting that wrong? One of these projection-simulation-mastu**** sites did last year… maybe I’m thinking the year before. Anyone have these predictions from last year?
I’ll take a regression to the mean on third-down and redzone offense!!
Listened to Aaron Shotts on KNBR explaining the Football Outsiders 7.2 win projection.
From what I could gather from his remaks he is basically saying that last years defense played at a very high level as proven by their top 3 defensive ranking in many catagories. Take-aways may be one area that will show a big difference because those type of numbers are typically never duplicated from one season to the next.
Aaron Shotts also mentioned that Alex Smith’ low INT percentage of 2011 will likely suffer as well.
This is no particular revelation to me because with VD, RM, MC, and MM on the team it only stands to reason to see more passes per game.
I’ve have no problem with AS throwing a few more INT’ if he is trying to take more shots down-field or even take his chances of throwing into tighter coverage.
Football Outsiders ran over one million scenarios to come to their 7.2 conclusion. I’m still going with a 12-4 or 11-5 win season.
Anything below a 9 win season will cause some concern and IMO be underacheiving.
AES
you were right. I couldn’t stay away for long. FO can run a trillion scenarios and it won’t matter if their assumptions are wrong. I see the Niners winning 10 games as worst case scenario.
(lol) NickRow!
We love our 49ers whether rain, sun, fog and vacations.
I used to follow them. But after a couple of years of watching them fail, it became very clear they have a bad model. As far as I can see, they rely too much on yardage metrics and not enough on effective plays and field position differentials.
This has lead to things like the 2009 9-7 Ravens being rated #1 in their while the 14-2 Colts were 8th, the 13-3 Chargers were 11th and the 10-6 Bengals 19th. Do you see my point? If you have a model and it gives you whack results on a regular basis, there’s something wrong with it…
Oh well, that settles it then. Tell Harbaugh and the boys to not even bother if “Football Outsiders” says so.
I seriously doubt the team gives a shit what “Football Outsiders” think, or MGM for that matter. Just play the games. Go Niners!!!
That is why they are outsider’s, I have them at 10-6 and now I think I would put them at 11-5 or if they really play well 12-4. That is why they play the game, west coast bias.
Good call Neal. Outsiders is a good name for this publication
I remember football outside predicting 7 or 8 wins, i think, they also had the raiders with the top pick.
Another ‘respected’ football publication – The Bleacher Report – has the Niners going 12-4 :)
Go figure
Must be the alcohol :) i missed up the HTML.
I say the Niners go
12-4 if the offense plays better
10-6 otherwise
Well one thing it has done is stir up conversation. I’m a stat/formula geek, and I respect the work these guys do, but this one seems off the mark. Even Schatz himself said it seemed low in the tweet Grant posted. I’m not sure of all the criteria they use, but predicting wins and losses is about as an exact a science as predicting how well a drafted player will do in the pros. At this point they have numbers from last season to analyze that don’t take some key factors into account:
Familiarity with the Coaching staff and systems. This is a huge intangible this season.
Key additions to the WR core and a new RG.
Injuries to the Niners or the teams we face.
Too many variables to use a mathematic equation. The only way to forcast the season imo, is to look at how the 9ers matchup with each team they face if both are completely healthy and where and when the games take place.
The moment you start to estimate things like TO’s and injuries, you immediately diminish the accuracy of what you are predicting.
Rocket
using statistics to make predictions is Accurate only when the system is truely random. What has happened to the Niners in the past 8 years has not been random. FO is way off the mark on this one. Are they based out of the East Coast by any chance?
They are Nick. The problem with using stats to predict wins and losses is the fact so much changes from one year to the next. As you said, the system is not truly random, because it can’t be.
Rocket,
FO’s W-L projections are comparable to technical analysis of the stock market, they’re purely quantitative.
In many [most?] cases this type of analysis is pretty good. Where it doesn’t work as well is in the case of a team [or stock] that is undergoing significant change. The kind of change that creates a shift so big, that the data from previous years isn’t as relevant.
JH / TB have changed the culture of the 49ers, so profound that the team has made a permanent shift to a much higher level. FO’s number crunching computer isn’t equiped to make the shift a long with them.
equipped / along
exgolfer,
Great analogy and I agree. Computers aren’t equipped to gauge the effect of intangibles like the ones I listed either. The human element is impossible for a computer to forcast.
The real question, Grant, is why you see the need to post such an obviously inaccurate projection. FO is using cold computer analysis without taking into account the intangibles, passion, desire, and most important… coaching. However, you are supposed to know about those things, since you are supposed to cover the 49ers. It is a poor statement about your nonexistent journalistic abilities that you would select this projection for the subject of a column. You really are a troll; seeking to create controversy where there is none. No educated sports person has the 49ers winning only 7 or 8 games. This is another back mark on your work.
Go easy Bro, Grant reported someting and us news junkies lapped it up. I don’t agree with FO on this, but it was interesting to hear another perspective.
Thanx for finding something to read Grant. I’d never bet based on your predictions but i appreciate you being a prolfic journalist in slow news times.
Maybe we lost two more games than we should have in 2010, in which case we’re even.
Very interesting. The more I look at their schedule (and its brutality) the more I’m starting to think 10 wins will be tough.
This year’s schedule is easier than last year’s so how do you figure this one is brutal? Are they traveling 3k miles on 3 days rest to play in a hostile environment? :/
its not the win loss ratio that makes the schedule hard. It is all the 1st place teams they play away on the schedule and the back and forth east coast/west coast week to week that makes it tough.
Always an excuse for Alex Smith. “Didn’t have this, didn’t have that. Had too many OCs.” Blaa Blaa blaa.
Win Loss record doesn’t lie.
Stats don’t lie.
Rolling to your right and running out of bounds instead of throwing the dang ball doesn’t lie.
Holding the ball and taking a suck because you’re do dang scared to put it in a tight window doesn’t lie.
END OF STORY
Dumb, stupid, ignorant post. No lie.
Can you name me a QB who has gone or did go through the same situation that Smith has dealt with in his first seven seasons? Stop with the biased half-truths Dan. In fact, I’ll top your half-truths with an actual truism. The stage is finally set for Alex Smith this season. Barring decimating injuries on offense, he needs to either take hold of the role given to him or accept the role of a stand-in.
Two special teams turnovers away from the Superbowl doesn’t lie either. Damn closer than Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Stafford got last season.
@Dan:
Win Loss record doesn’t lie.
You are right, and 13-3 (or 14-4, if you prefer) says a lot.
Dan,
In fact, stats do lie, sometimes. When they are misinterpreted, or misused.
For instance, harping on a shortfall in passing yards, without including average gain per pass play in the discussion. Or Oline protection, play calling, or the coach’s track record in how he brings QB’s along (see: Andrew Luck, at Stanford).
I’m not saying those factors necessarily point in one direction, or another, only that looking at one stat in a vacuum, may lead to an incorrect conclusion.
Dan,
I thought Alex Smith would roll out to his right and throw the ball away, not run out of bounds. I’ll watch more closely next year.
Dan
14-4 Doesn’t Lie. 90.5 QB rating doesn’t lie. 6 4th quarter comebacks dont lie.
Would you prefer tossing it blindly in to double coverage a la P. Rivers over taking a sack when the window is too tight?
Statistics always fluctuate and you can try to predict whatever you want w/ them, but it doesn’t always come out like you think it will. This year I expect us to beat the odds on regressing to non-contenders…. the team tasted what it felt like to be true SB contenders last year and they’re hungry to get back… the table is set for us to get that 6th ring and the D is ready to feast on all QB’s we face. It all starts w/ Green Bay… one W at a time, I believe our ‘Niners end no worse than 11-5 even w/ some bad bounces and take the whole damn thing. Let’s start the season already!!
Grant
How many games did they have us out to win last year? If we only get 7.2 this year, were we -2 games last year? Because coming into last season we stank a lot more than we do coming into this season according to many people.
DS, “Here’s an excerpt from the almanac: “The 49ers actually won 2.2 more games in 2011 than they should have according to Estimated Wins.”
Based on that sentence from the article it appears they had the 49ers winning 10.8 games.
Different spot Jack. Estimated wins is based on the actual performance during the season. Based on the 49′ers DVOA performance in 2011 they “should” have won 10.8 games.
Projected wins is the FO (Aaron Schatz actually) method of trying to predict future performance. FO projected 7.5 wins for the 49ers last year IIRC.
They had us winning 7.5 games last year. Here is the link:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2011/8/23/2380156/football-outsiders-2011-almanac-san-francisco-49ers-preview
I’m thinking this must be why they are called outsiders : )
The FO statisticians based their predictions on past records. They are always accurate in retrospect. If such stats can be accurate to predict the future, then they should be able to predict stock prices too. Those guys don’t have to work for FO. They can make huge money in Las Vegas.
Football is played by people, people introduced uncertainties.
1st off. It’s sad that the writer has to ask not to be attacked because of what someone else wrote. Because the rose colored glasses wearing maroons can’t take an opinion. without losing their minds. And can’t separate the writer from the poster.
2nd I totally agree with them saying we won’t win that many close games again. Which means Smith will have to step his game up and score td’s instead of letting Akers set records. It’s sounds like nobody has faith in smith. I can’t blame them, but he proves most wrong this season. 10-6/11-5. I can’t wait for the season to start.
MGM has them at 4:1 odds to win it all….. I guess the money has some faith in Smith. Vegas always knows the score.
Odds are set by the bettors.
If the bettors were smart Vegas would lose money.
It will come down to injuries. If we manage to play healthy 10-6. I pray Alex and both lines make it through. If Boone gets hurt we could be doomed.
hilarious.
this is the kind of modeling that allowed AIG FP to lose tens of billions of dollars on CDOs.
I rule out nothing. but i’d bet heavily against us winning only 7-8 games.
we are going to win 7 before the first two months of the season are over…
there is the potential of niners picking up most of their season losses in the first 8 weeks….the team’s overall mental toughness will be on display in sept and oct…..this could very well be the timeframe when AS finally takes on a true leadership role that inspires
And why not? We did last last year.
Even under Singletary we were 5-1 in the division. 3-3 would be a huge failure.
Not if we win the SB. See NYG’s 2011 3-3 division record, SB XLVI Champs…
Check out the link to a video explaining the projections. One question…Is this guy working out of his basement?
http://www.mercurynews.com/49ers/ci_21114098/analysis-san-francisco-49ers-will-win-only-7