I was reading a Greg Cosell article this morning called “The Evolving Chess Match” and I found it interesting, so I’m passing it along to you.
Here’s the key excerpt from the article: “There are always exceptions, but defensively, if you expect to beat the top passing games, you must be able to stop shotgun offenses with five receivers than can align at any position. That’s the next frontier.”
The Niners rarely faced empty-backfield spread formations last season, but you can bet they will next season. They’re facing the Packers, the Patriots, the Lions, the Saints and the Bills – five teams that are known for their spread offenses.
I’d imagine the Packers will try to spread the Niners defense out Week 1 at Lambeau Field – line up four wide receivers and a tight end and pass and pass and pass some more. How will the Niners match up with that?
Tarell Brown and Chris Culliver will cover the outside receivers – Jordy Nelson and James Jones, and safeties Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner will play deep zones. Patrick Willis will cover the tight end – Jermichael Finley, Carlos Rogers will covers the No.1 slot receiver – Greg Jennings, but will who cover the other slot receiver – either Donald Driver or Randall Cobb?
Perrish Cox, that’s who.
Tramaine Brock, the Niners other backup cornerback, lined up strictly outside in minicamp. Only Cox and Rogers lined up over the slot.
That’s why Cox will be a tremendously important player for 49ers next season. Offenses are going to spread their defense out and challenge Cox. You can bet on that.
It’s a good strategy against the Niners for a few reasons.
- Using an empty-backfield spread formation forces the Niners to pull their second inside linebacker, NaVorro Bowman, off the field for a fourth cornerback who can cover the slot – Perrish Cox.
- NaVorro Bowman is one of the best players on the team and perhaps the second best inside linebacker in the NFL behind teammate Patrick Willis, and Perrish Cox is an unproven 2010 fifth-round pick who didn’t play football last season because he was fighting a sexual assault case. He was acquitted on March 2.
- Unless the Niners play a zone, Cox will be alone on an island in coverage. It’s the outside corners who get the safety help in the Niners defensive scheme. The slot corners are on their own. Rogers is one of the most talented corners in the NFL – he thrives covering the slot on his own. But how will Cox fare? We’ll find out when the season starts.
- Cox has fluid hips and he’s good at changing directions – key attributes for a slot cornerback – but he’s relatively slow for the position (ran a 4.56 at his Pro Day). He could be vulnerable against fast slot receivers on routes like the speed out, the deep in and the go.
- The Niners pass rush is relentless, but it isn’t instantly overwhelming. More than five of Aldon Smith’s sacks last season took longer than three seconds, and he’s usually the first Niner to reach the quarterback. A quick pass to the slot receiver who’s being covered by Cox could be a good play against the Niners.
- With Bowman on the sideline and Willis in coverage, a running quarterback can hurt the Niners because there’s no one shadowing him. If the QB gets away from the pass rush, the Niners cornerbacks will have their backs turned as the QB scrambles for the first down. Aaron Rodgers does this all the time.
No one tried this against the Niners last season. The Packers will most likely try it Week 1. If it works, every opponent with a good fourth wide receiver will try it next season until Perrish Cox makes them pay.
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Interesting read Grant!
Didn’t the Niners face this type of Offensive glam plan vs the Saints last year? It’s high risk yet high reward it seems… you pass that much you’re going to eventually get picked. Can’t throw at Cox every time
Why thank you. The Niners were able to use their nickel defense against the Saints because Willis could match up with Jimmy Graham and Bowman could match up with Darren Sproles.
I’m interested to see what happens when a good passing team like the Packers forces the Niners to play Dime.
Nice read!
Grant
The Niners were in zone I think more than man.
Man-man is risky with todays QB’s. QB escapes, nobody knows until 20 yards later. Don’t think man-man works against AR.
See Raider Bronco game last year.
DS…
I see your point but comparing Raiders D to ours is hard to do. I don’t think they have one player on D that would start on the Niners. But I agree you have to contain AR… although I don’t think they win that game by him running. Our D lays wood and I don’t think their coaching staff wants him running around all day… way too risky.
Your right Jack,
AS is the best option at the moment but when Cousin it, says that AR is not a great QB and can be discussed in the same conversation as AS, although AR had been voted best player in the NFL by his peers and Fouts and Marino are not elite QB’s because they never won a Super Bowl, you know IT is spiking his Kool -Aid.
Rodgers torches man and zone.
The Niners dime back last season was Reggie Smith, a safety, so yes, they did play more zone in dime.
Now the dime back appears to be Cox – a slot corner.
AR torched bad teams in zone and man.
When AR played decent D’s, he wasn’t torching much of anything. Both Giant games (in GB no less) and KC managed AR’s fire just fine.
“Wait till he gets a load of me (us).”
They were successful because of their pass rush, not their zone coverage.
The Niners had more than a few sacks due to their coverage skills. Sacks attributed to the 2 new guys and TB improving a ton.
Aldon was nice. But without JS (I remember the whole OL just moving wherever JS moved freeing up Aldon), he’s not getting several of those sacks. The coverage gave him several more. 2 severals added together is not insignificant when the total is 14. I bet about 1/2 his sacks were due to these two factors.
It’s kind of sad that you can’t give Rodgers the credit he deserves. There is a reason that the players voted him #1 in the players rankings.
AR vs NY Giants last year: 2 games 633 yards 6 TD’s 2 int’s. He was sacked four times against the Chiefs and did not commit any turnovers.
You like to trump the team card all of the time for Smith, imagine if Rodgers had a decent O-line and a decent defense last year. Their defense was #32 and their O-line was #21, and would have been ranked much lower if not for Rodgers getting rid of the ball so quickly.
If Rodgers torches Man & Zone then I guess there’s no hope for the 49ers then.
PLEASE
Rodgers is NOT Superman okay.
@f49er
Does not matter. AR is not AS. And last year especially there are some here who said every other QB on the FA market was better. Last years results proved that. Don’t you think?
If AR didn’t play for Cal, people wouldn’t have such a crush on him. AR has been to the playoffs as a starter 3 times. 2/3 times he lost the opening game. I think both at home. He won a Super Bowl playing against a non-functioning TP Pitt team. A feat so difficult, the Bruce Gradkowski lead Raiders also beat them under similar circumstances on their way to a 5-11 season.
Voted the BEST PLAYER in the NFL by his PEERS, you know, the people who actually play against him. Next!
BIG P,
Having DS talking about Quarterbacks is like George Bush speaking the English language fluently. He knows nothing about QB’s, his love for AS shows that. When she says that Fouts and Marino are not elite QB’s because they never won a Super Bowl and should not be in the Football Hall of Fame, do you really take his dulusional opinion of AR seriously. She is a clown.
I just get a kick out of it, it’s so desperate. When a team goes 15-1 in the regular season with the #32 defense, the QB is doing something spectacular. I just prefer to give credit where credit is due, whether I like the player or not. It’s all good though, AR was voted as the best player in the NFL by his peers. That is the greatest sign of respect for a player.
AR deserve all of the props he get’s, year after year he is in the top 3Qb’s in all of football. If I had to choose right now, who I would want my QB to be it is AR followed by Eli. Actually I would take 15 or 16 QB over DS man crush of AS.
I’m not an Alex fan, but I’m reticent about picking that many guys over him. Rodgers, Eli, Brees for sure. Brady and Peyton maybe if they are healthy and it’s for a one year run. Strong consideration to Newton and Dalton if you’re looking to the future. Rivers would have been on that list last year, now he makes me nervous. Stafford and Ryan, maybe, maybe not. Roethlisberger has too many off-field adventures, he could be suspended and gone if Goodell gets anything on him. I’d put Alex no lower than tenth. Which is not so bad, but leaves room for improvement. And with our defense, tenth might be enough.
Neal,
Most right minded people agree with that assessment, but remember, it isn’t right minded. Saying AS is equal to or better than AR is something only a fool would do.
Grumpy,
For me, it’s not about denigrating Smith, it’s about giving credit to others that play at an exceptional level.
You guys are so easy.
Somebody gives absolute facts about AR, and just because they don’t paint him in the light you suck up to him, you freak out. AR lost his cool last post-season, and didn’t manage himself or the game well. They lost that game because of it. AR lost that game guys. Sorry,but it is true. Just like I said mid-last season. GB will not make it to the title game to earn the right to play us.
Always the first to defend non-Niners. AR has never done what he’s done against a true force of nature which our D is. Healthy teams now. Not the TP less Pitt or the injury riddled Bears of last season. He lost his cool.
He’ll find out soon enough!
BS , you know next to nothng about QB’s, AR was rated among his piers as the best player in the NFl, stop drinking the AS Kool- Aid. You really sound like a moron making those comments, oh wait you are a dope.
Grant
Can we please make it a rule, where a blogger has to have the minimal intelligence to at least know how to write out a persons name?
I’m afraid BigP/f49er/yourself are being referenced by a guy who thinks we are still in Jr. High School.
Enjoy your own little space Neal. There is plenty of it in your heart.
BS, That means you will be kicked out of this blog because your Football IQ is a -5. We all know that your the blog bum and the big buffoon on here, I feel very sorry for you.
Yes Jack,
Anybody with a ounce of football knowlege knows you can’t discuss AS with AR in the same thought, what a clown.
@Grant
Maybe, the person who still can’t learn the person’s proper name is suffering a stroke! It would explain a great many things. Such as inablilty to understand people.
I implore them to please check the link about strokes out below. It could save their life.
http://www.everydayhealth.com/stroke/am-i-having-a-stroke.aspx
Grant
Please email this individual at once. Despite several posts asking him to refer to you, others by their proper name, he refuses.
2 possibilities for this:
1. He is unable to do so. My stroke theory.
2. He is unwilling to do so. The guy is just a serious ahole.
I’m an optimistic person, so I’m hoping he really does suffer from a medical issue (possibility 1), and isn’t really this stupid and cruel (possibility 2). After all, there are treatments for stroke victim. For being an ahole, though, nothing.
This little blog get’s under your furry skin BS, you are pretty sad, and you called me a-hole, you really hurt my feeling Waah, maybe tonight you can get a man hug from your crush AS and he will take all your tears away. Poor baby !!
Aaron Rodgers
Rated #1 player in the NFL by his peers.
NFL Regular season MVP
Super Bowl Champion
Super Bowl MVP
It’s okay, BS. You know Harbaugh would trade the milky blues for Rodgers in a half second, he wouldn’t even bother “evaluating” him.
Aaron Rodgers will always be a touchy subject on this or any other 49ers blog. After all, as Jerry Rice said, taking Alex Smith instead of Rodgers was the biggest mistake in 49ers history.
Any success by Rodgers makes the Smithers unhappy. They will say anything to denigrate his accomplishments because anytime he succeeds it makes the Precious look worse.
Any success by Rodgers makes the Smithers unhappy.
That’s funny, the only people who seem to get upset about Rodgers’ success are those who cannot let go of a draft decision made 7 years ago by people no longer employed by the team.
They will say anything to denigrate his accomplishments
Who is this “they”? As far as I can tell, only one commenter has written any such thing.
What is sadder is those who get unhappy Alex Smith has success. The team went 14-4 with him as the QB last year, far surpassing everyone’s expectations. And yet, some of you could not enjoy last season’s success because it happened with Alex Smith as the QB, and you cannot let go of the past.
*What is sadder are those who get unhappy because Alex Smith has success.
And the straw man arguments continue. Nobody but DS is questioning Rodgers accomplishments so don’t turn this into anything more than that. I don’t agree with DS at all, just as I don’t agree with those of you who omit factual information when talking about Alex Smith. It would be great if we could get all of you to meet somewhere in the middle. Something like Rodgers is the superior player and a mistake was made by people no longer here, but we can win with the other guy too, because he’s not as bad as some of you think he is. That is somewhat reasonable isn’t it?
If you are a Niner fan, you cheer and support AS.
Any QB whose team made the playoffs last year, and you’re a fan of that team, should support that QB.
And I know the reply. “Would GB pick AS right now over AS?”
No. GB fans are at least loyal. You don’t insult the guy who got you to the playoffs, and won a playoff game. Other teams fans may. But you are not.
I’m quite happy with AR in GB, TB in NE, Brees in NO, Ben the rapist in Pitt, and so forth. I’ll gladly put AS on our team and those QB’s on their teams and know we’ll win. I am willing to bet fans of those clubs will say the same. And of course they will. They should. They are fans. They support the guy who led them to the playoffs.
Only here. The pathetic fans of the Niners do we want to insult the guy who brought us to the dance. I’m sure you were great guys going to dances. Dumping the girl/guy who brought you there for a flash romance. Really loyal there.
If you want other leaders, become a fan of other teams. A fan is loyal. If you are not loyal, you are no longer a fan. It is best you go find something else to do on Sunday, or to admit you just don’t like the team anymore. QB’s are the leaders. Bar none. And coming on 8 years now, you are mad about our leader. Why live your life like that? Why live being mad at something you are not forced to watch for a decade?
Our savior HC brought back AS. AS was gone! AS lead this team to an impossibly great season. One that no expert remotely saw. Yet you fight with fans who agree with the HC. The HC you all wanted. You lose no matter what (win or lose). And you are so blind you don’t even see it.
Ceadderman was right about some of you. Other teams fans come here and are more complimentary about AS than some Niner fans! What is wrong with you people?
BS,
Your quote “And I know the reply. “Would GB pick AS right now over AS?”
Sounds like the same guy to me. Not sure what your point is. All Niner fans with a logical head and even our head coach would take AR right now over AS. Only you think AS is better then AR. Really stop now before it is too late, oh wait a minute it is way to late, you clown.
Neal,
I think we all can agree that Alex Smith is currently the best option, no? It would be great to have Rodgers, but that won’t happen. Getting into these types of discussions with it are just an exercise in futility.
Don’t try to argue with an idiot, you won’t gain anything and eventually it drags you down to it’s level.
DS, loyalty in todays world, especially in sports is a term that is becoming extinct. Its just not happening. With fanatsy football in the fray, fans want the entertainment/shock value. Its not about seeing progression and development, its win now or get someone else who can.
When JH was hired everyone thought it was a 3-5 year plan t0 get the Niners back to respectability. After a good year, its now SB or bust. Thats fine with me as the team now has great depth, salary cap stability, and a young roster.
When fans put it on Smith as the “weak link”, I think they look to the best players in the league at the same postion and compare numbers. I dont think thats a realistic comparison considering everything that happened in his career and the development scenarios each of the top 5 QB’s in league had since they were drafted. Regardless, anything said will be termed and excuse so not going there. I say we just watch and let the play of Alex determine the loyalty of the day one supporters and rejoice silently in watching the wins pile up.
@rocket
I never said AR didn’t do what he did. AR led his team to the Super Bowl.
Everything I said is 100% fact.
1. AR has been in the playoffs 3 times (in a row if you want yo be specific). In those years, AR failed to lead his team past the first game played 2/3 times.
2. AR didn’t play a healthy TP Pitt team in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, I seem to be the only one here to have seen what TP does for that team and what his absence/lack of full health. Basically Pitt sucks without him. Want proof? Pitt lost to the Raiders and just about everybody after TP was injured in 2009 after winning quite a few before the injury. In 2010, Ben the rapist was suspended. And Pitt started 3-1. Ending with a 12-4 record. They kicked butt in the playoffs until TP got hurt. Then they sucked in the Super Bowl.
Bravo to AR. He beat a TP injured Pitt team. That is better than losing to a TP injured team to be sure. But don’t think for a second he beat the Pitt team that got the team to Super Bowl. He didn’t.
Pitt without TP is like the Niners minus JS/PW/DW all rolled up together. If you beat the Niners who don’t have these 3 guys (or are badly hurt), good for you. But don’t think for a second you beat us without a lot of fortune for not having played against a fully healthy (as far as expected) JS/PW/DW.
I didn’t make up anything. Just giving an equally accurate description of AR as many here have.
To answer your ending question, why are my facts and view any less accurate from yours regarding AR? Fact is, it is all correct (the non-opinion stuff anyway like AR losing 2/3 and him winning a Super Bowl). Why are your facts more truthful than mine?
Why the need to denigrate Rodgers’ accomplishments DS?
DS,
You are trying to diminish Rodgers accomplishments with half truths much like some of the anti Smith posters do.
Yes you are correct that Rodgers has only gotten the Packers past the first playoff game in 1 out of 3 years. What you fail to mention however is he lost to the Cardinals while throwing for 423 yards and 4 TD’s in a 51-45 loss. He was brilliant in that game and certainly did more than enough to win.
To say the Packers beat the Steelers due to TP not being healthy is also disingenuous. TP is a huge part of the Steelers D, but they have lost with him healthy and would have lost that day no matter what he did. The Packers were on a roll to close the season and nobody was going to beat them. Rodgers was amazing in that playoff run. He carried it over to this past season where he had one of the best seasons by a QB in NFL history. Their loss to the Giants was as much to do with dropped passes by his receivers and the Giants being on a roll moreso than any ineffectiveness by Rodgers. He was voted the best player in the league for a reason.
What you are doing right now is no different than what you accuse others of doing to Smith. You are finding ways to downgrade a player instead of putting all the info on the table that shows the other side to your view.
rocket
Not remotely the same. You disappoint me by saying that.
1. I am a Niner fan. AS is a Niner. A damn loyal one at that. As FDM points out, loyalty is rare. AS loyalty gives him bonus points. AR is not a Niner. I have no oath to defend him. If AR becomes a Niner I will. Just as I did with Deion Sanders. Until then, don’t bet your life on it.
2. I don’t call AR stupid names. Those that do attack AS, do.
3. This is a Niners blog. Not a GB blog.
4. I am a Niners fan. Not a football fan. I used to be a baseball Giants fan. I stopped. So, I don’t watch baseball now. I wasn’t a baseball fan just like I’m not a fotball, fan. I am A NINERS FAN.
5. The truth hurts. AR got very lucky. While you were in awe of him in the NFC, Pitt was even more dominant in the AFC. They kicked blank in the playoffs. Moreso than the Pack. They had the better record for a reason. They were better. If you think GB was better, you’re wrong. GB was lucky. You watch AR a lot. I watch Pitt a lot. The old football rule is “Good defense beats good offense more than not.”
Have you ever talked, conversed with a Pitt fan about that game? You may find that they think they had a pretty good team with TP being healthy.
What makes you so certain GB wins with a healthy TP? TP was the best defender that year. TP was the best defender in the playoffs. Think that matters on a team that lives on their D?
Had AR been hurt, and Pitt won, would you not put an * Pit win in your mind? Be fair rocket. No way you wouldn’t say “Pitt beat GB sure, but AR wasn’t near full health.” You deny that, then I know you’re just making conversation. Which is cool and all. This is a blog. Blogs are used for conversation.
Rocket,
You made great points. To me, it’s about giving credit to great players. Troy Polamalu did exactly that after Rodgers shredded them during the Super Bowl. Polamalu said he was completely healthy and referenced AR’s play at several points during the press conference.
On his health:
“It was the healthiest I’ve ever been. The best I’ve felt since probably the middle of the season.”
On Jordy Nelson’s big day: “It helps when you have a really good quarterback.”
Troy isn’t making excuses, he is giving credit where credit is due.
DS,
I call it like I see it, and I see you using partial info to try and make a point. Saying you are a loyal Niner fan should not allow you to apply close minded thinking to a player on another team. It’s common sense.
If you don’t watch teams other than the Niners, I feel sorry for you. Football is a great sport and while I am first and foremost a Niner fan, I also enjoy watching great players play, and there are many around the league, Rodgers being one. The fact this is a Niner Blog does not mean we can’t appreciate talented players from other teams.
Nobody was beating the Packers in the playoffs that year. That is my opinion. You have yours, I have mine and they both are worth nothing. Rodgers had a game in Atlanta in the playoffs where he completed 86% of his passes. That is not good; that is downright incredible. He was in the zone throughout the playoffs and into last season. He is one of the great QB’s of his generation. You trying to downgrade him is futile and misguided.
BigP,
I agree. I think not giving credit where it’s deserved is small minded stubborn thinking. You can be a fan without having rose colored glasses attached to your face.
Rocket,
That is a well said post. DS is jealous of AR accomplishments and anyone with a brain knows that AR is a hell of a great QB. DS needs to read QB for dummy’s because he has zero knowledge of QBacking in the NFL
rocket
I am using the same partials you are. I don’t recall you talking about the circumstances about that game. Or about Pitt at all in your Pro-AR posts of winning the Super Bowl. No mention of them. As if they don’t matter. How are you fair and balanced by not taking an equally fair look at them? How they got there? Who they played? How you felt watching them that year/playoffs. If you never did, you can’t give a fair answer. I did watch them both. You have always liked AR. I was indifferent to him for a long time. Just tired of him on a Niner blog.
I have more data. More years of what Pitt is like with a healthy vs. injured TP. I think the 2009 pre-TP injury Pitt team, the 2009 post TP injury, the 2010 pre-TP injury, the post 2010 TP injury and the 2011 Pitt team if TP didn’t make a play are plenty of reason to give doubt about your statement that the GB Packers were not going to lose. Look at those games/results and tell me GB was a lock. If you are fair, there is no way you can.
It is very tiring hearing about AR every time on a Niner blog. He’s not even on the team. And I didn’t say I don’t watch ohter games. I do. But if I weren’t a Niner fan anymore, I wouldn’t watch any.
And I don’t care how good he’s been the past few years. Nobody earns top of this generation until about a decades worth of play. Time enough to have undergone lots of turnover coaching/personnel wise. You want to crown him, feel free to do so. But this blog is titled “Inside the Niners”. Not “Inside the NFL”. Maybe there is no difference to you. But AR is likely in the top 10 NFL players brought up on a Niner blog and he isn’t on the team.
Like Rocket already said, he is a Niners fan first. He just doesn’t feel the need to trash other great players to make Smith look better. It’s called character.
BS,
You are pretty sad case, what are you 50 or 60 year old and you are asking about rule changes to a 23 year old kid, because I get under your hairy fur. You don’t need to be Dr. Phil to realise you have early signs of mental disease. The link below can help you out.
http://www.alz.org/national/documents/checklist_10signs.pdf
@Neal
Funny stuff, that was hilarious.
Thanks Nick,
When BS starts talking about QB’s, he is the hilarious one, because you think he is not serious but he must be putting in a separate mix for his witching brew of Kool -Aid.
Grant,
Some of your best stuff to date. I really don’t think a lot of people (including myself) saw Cox as that big of an addition to the team. But it just might seem he in in fact a “key” addition. Nice break down…
you said Cox. haahaa
That’s his name…grow up…
Whatever, ‘Blaine’…. if that’s your real name, ‘Blaaaaaaine’ …
haaa haaaa
Nice come back…are you always so witty?
what does that even mean??
hiiiiiiiiiiiiihiiiiiiiiiii
The problem with running the spread as a base offense is it gets your QB beat to hell over the course of a season. This pass happy offensive identity is not new. It’s been around in many different forms in the WCO, the Coryell offense and even to the extreme with the run and shoot. It’s really never left when you look at the fact Martz ran variations of it for years until he had an Oline in Chicago that couldn’t protect the QB.
The one element that is a little different now are all the bubble screens that are used. It’s now more about 3-5 step drops and getting it into the hands of the receiver quickly.
The way to defense this is the way it’s always been: be physical with the receivers on the LOS, flood the zones and get to the QB. The more receivers, the less protection for the QB. That’s why even in this pass happy age, 5 of last years playoff teams were top ten in rushing while 7 were top ten in passing, and two predominantly running teams made the final four last year. The game is still about ball control, efficiency and defense. There’s just different ways teams go about it in phases over time.
Nice comment. You also need 5 pretty good receivers to run those sets – how many NFL teams can say they’ll field 5 receivers who are all threats? You also need an elite offensive line if you’re only leaving 5 in for protection.
For the sake of clarity, the WCO run by Bill Walsh was not in any way shape fashion or form a spread offense. Although Coryell and Walsh share some elements with Sid Gillman’s offense, there is not any similarities between Walsh’s offense and what most people consider a spread offense today.
3-5 yard passes are not considered “spread” type passes. BW designed a lot of his plays to be 3-5 yard passes while clearing some real estate for the receiver to get more due to clever play design and just having some really, really great players.
The spread has nothing to do with the distance of passes, it is predicated on mismatches. It forces defenses to defend the entire field, gives receiving targets room to navigate and it limits defensive substitutions.
Walsh’s offense rarely used more than 2 receivers. Usually it was 2 receivers, 2 backs and 1 tight end.
Bill Walsh often stated that his goal was to Spread the field and opposing defenses horizontally sideline to sideline instead of vertically ala Al Davis.
Bubble screens get WR’s destroyedunless you have numerical mismatch. WR’s start hearing steps after getting decleated before they can get their head back around. Good point rocket.
Actually Walsh used more and more of the 3-4 WR formations as time went on. Not all the time, but he incorporated them in over the years, and then Holmgren used them even more once he took over as the playcaller. The spread is more formation than offensive system. You can be a heavy passing offense without using a spread, but the spread formation is used specifically to create mismatches with a defense. Offensive football is becoming more and more like fast break Basketball. Quick passing, getting it to receivers within 5 yards of the LOS and then trying to break something. With the WCO it was the slant routes, in Coryells system it was the quick posts to Winslow, in the spread it’s the bubble screen. The plays change a bit, but the core elements of a high passing offense are pretty much the same as they have been for the last 30-35 years.
That’s why I don’t ever see the running game getting phased out. It’s been tried before and defenses always figure out a way to expose it. You need a strong running game to compliment the passing game no matter what offense you run.
Grant, do you believe Cox would have been integral to stopping Cruz and Manningham in NFC title game?
Who knows.
What is known is that T. Brown was playing his best game till DG took him out. And the guy who replaced him gave up the 4th quarter TD after the KW fumble.
no
No, the Giants were mainly running three-wide sets.
still no
The defense held the Giants to 17 points in regular time. That’s a win if you have a competent offense. Cox wouldn’t have made much difference in that game.
Cox could have taken over for an injured Ginn and kept a ten point swing from happening.
I blame the special team coach and Harbaugh keeping KW in the game, after the dive for the punt and hitting his knee, he did the same crap in college. They should not of had anybody returning punts on the last drive, we would of won the game.
But what about Alex Smith?
Of those 5 teams you mention only AR is a threat to run and only the Pats and Pack would go without a running back. The Bills aren’t taking Fred Jackson off the field, the Lions want Jahvid Best on the field, if healthy, and the Saints have Sproles. So 3 of those games the spread offense has Bowman still on the field covering the running back.
The Lions drafted Ryan Broyles for a reason.
Would he be more important to have on the field than a healthy Jahvid Best though?
Against the Niners, yes, because Broyles v. Cox is potentially a better matchup for Detroit than Best v. Bowman.
I’d take a healthy J. Best over Broyles all day. Best is one of the most explosive players in the NFL.
So is Bowman. It’s about the matchups.
Of course, the Lions will mix it up and use both guys if they’re healthy.
GC
That reason was that they were dissatisfied with T. Young who they tried playing in the slot as a 3rd WR when he is more of an outside the numbers guy. Broyles is the prototypical slot wide with PR ability and quick short bursts and change of direction. If he didnt tear his knee he would have been a first rounder
Nate Burleson is a slot receiver, too.
The Bills run a ton of spread, more than almost anybody, and they just drafted T.J. Graham in the third round.
Much more afraid of F. Jackson than Fitz, but the Bills have good coaching, so I’m sure they could field a decent offense in a variety of ways.
The Bills stank last year.
Why are we concerned about them? After Mr. Harvard got a huge contract, he stank. We will beat the Bills. If not, our “elite” D is a joke.
Anything can happen as they say on any given Sunday, if our offense does not score we can’t depend on the defense to score a couple of touch downs, oh wait a minute, we have Akers, he will get at least 5 field goals per game.
Every decade, the NFL becomes 5 WR.
The Falcons. Then the Rams. They produce stats-r-us, but end up getting the QB an early retirement party. Until the game literally does become 2-hand touch, the 5 WR direction will remain a “fad” for supposed experts to proclaim.
I really liked the Cox signing – low risk for a high-talent player. If he’s matured, he’ll be a very nice addition. On the point of R. Smith as the dime back, I can’t say how happy I am he’s gone. That guy got crucified every time he walked onto the field. Cox, Brock, T. Robinson, M. Iupati – I don’t care who the dime back is this year, as he’ll be better than Smith.
Agreed…always a step late an taking the wrong angle to the ball.
Nice read Grant! Very perceptive. I think Vangio likes Cully on a island buy himself. He trusted him against one of the most explosive WRs in the league (C. Johnson). You’re absolutely right that Cox will be an important piece in the defense this year. However it will Rogers & Cully on an island with Brown & Cox on the outside.
Good stuff! (which I rarely say here ;) ) Please more articles like this in the future.
As previously noted, empty backfield is a very high risk reward style, and that Pats are the main users of it because they come out in the 2 TE formation and can audible to keep protection in with a TE. The pack will roll the dice now and then but considering that their line is going through some big time changes… they may not want to test the 4wr-1TE waters right out of the gate.
Whether coaches admit it or not, their play selection does get limited by potential for injury, and since GB let got of Flynn and is known as a “prolific passing offense”, you can be sure that they will try to establish a running game of sorts this year. Thats not to say they wont leave their bread and butter, or try to Singletary the ball down the best run D in football’s throats… but I would be surprised if they went 5 wide in anything else but a 2 minute situation. In a 16 game season, along with it being the 1st game of the year, new O-line up vs one of the top front 7′s, etc… the only way we see 5 receivers going out for a pass is if Rodgers calls the play himself either via 2 minute drill or headset malfunction. There is a reason no one wants to keep Mike Martz as an OC…..
Niners have a ton of talent on D and Vic has the whole off season to prepare for Mr Rodgers neighborhood. Strength vs Strength should be fun to watch. Hope J. Smith & co lay the wood to AR.
It better be J. Smith because A. Smith can’t
Well somehow the giants did stop Green Bay. It might be helpful to look at how they did it.
Quick pressure on Rodgers.
used a decent QB. we need an alternate plan..
The Giants gave up 38 points to the Pack in the regular season. In the playoff game I didn’t see the Giants stop the Pack – I saw the Pack make dumb mistakes and drops. Even on a day when they were totally inept the Pack scored 20. You don’t really stop teams like the Pack and Saints – you outscore them.
msc
The Pack were given a lot of help from the officials in that playoff game.
The Pack should not have scored more than 13 if the officials were calling it even.
PS AR missed a lot of wide open WR’s in that game, early on. The pressure go to him. He lost his cool. Think we can’t do the same? With JS/Aldon/A. Brooks and company. We can do a lot more than the Giants ever did.
They went 15-1 with the #32 defense. The Packers WR’s had 9 dropped passes in that playoff game against the Giants. That is not a typo, 9 dropped passes. AR also had 66 yards rushing in that game because their O-line was in shambles and he was running for his life. MSC is correct, you have to outscore these teams. I said it last year when we played the Saints and I was correct. The Niners forced five turnovers and still had to come from behind to beat the Saints. What happens if they don’t force five turnovers?
Fangio is not taking Bowman off the field on any formation.
The early reports say Cox looks good, in shorts. I agree OCs will test him; wouldnt you? Grinding against these guys is like hard rock mining.
If needed, I think T.Brown could be effective in the slot. Young Mr. Nelms is hoping for a versatility spot on the roster. Robinson could get some snaps there too.
You mention that our pass rush isn’t exactly the fastest at getting at the QB and that they rely on the secondary to give them some time which is true but you also mention that we didn’t face hardly any if any 4 and 5 receiver sets which means our rushers never had the luxury of rushing 5 man protection. Lets see how much faster out boys get to the QB when they only have 5 men to protect him.
Well played.
to deaf ears…
Has anybody mentioned that it will be those 5 vs JS/AS/AB+ potentially a blitzing PW/NB?
We can’t just look at danger to our secondary, but the advantages pass rushing wise we get if they teams do so spread us out.
Who will you 2-team? JS? Aldon? You can’t do both with only 5 blockers and going 1 on 1 with them…you’re stupid if you do. Plus I think AB will be the most improved Niner defender from last year. And he was good last year.
If I recall Niners rarely blitzed last year , that is because they didn’t need to. I believe Fangio was saving it , expect to see it a lot more against Rogers , Brady , Brees , Stafford , and cutler. I dont expect 38 turnovers again , but part of niners sucess is how hard most of the D hits , makes you think twice bout catching the ball.
I agree with your observation that much will hinge on the play of the 49ers DB after Cully… likely Cox.
I also think depth at pass rusher OLB is just as crucial. It’s a concern since both 49ers OLB rookies had injuries.
I like the Jenkins pick, but I would not be surprised if the 49ers secretly hoped Bruce Irvin slipped past Seattle.
Besides corner, depth at pass rushing OLB has to be the biggest concern for the defense.
No, they were DEFINTELY hoping Irwin was there at 30. But I think Baalke knew that other GMs saw what he saw so he didnt think it was realistic for Irwin to last that long. If the ‘Hawks didnt get him, Rex Ryan would have been all over him. He’s even admitted as much.
Baalke’s track record says he ALWAYS goes biggest need in the first round so it’s hard to decipher. In 2010 he went O-Line. In 2011 he went pass-rush. But he was also picking inside the top 20 those two years so its easier to gauge where guys you really like might end up. After 25, you waiting for some guy you had rated in the top 20 to fall to you or your looking at a guy most perceive as second round talent but for your system or what you value/covet at the position makes him a “clear” first rounder in your eyes. That was Jenkins. Any guy you deem as a fringe first/early second round guy, you wait and see if he falls to you when you on the clock in round 2. At least that’s how I see it play out.
Cossel goes out of his way to say that Cox was a 5th rounder. How many teams’ 4th corner is a high pick? And if that happens its ussualy not a good sign because u dont draft guys in the 1st or 2nd rd with the intention of them being ur 4th CB. Who is the Bills 5th wideout that should concern us as fans (for that matter who are their other jag WR besides S.Johnson).
Cox got experience in his rookie year that should serve him well and its not like we r asking him to go in there and cover Larry Fitzgerald or megatron.
and if he really struggles we can always play zone.
Basicaly if you have time to fill and have to think of a way to attack the niners D focusing on their 4th CB is a logical choice. U cant exactly run on them, so thats out, CR and DG went to the pro-bowl TB and Cully are solid so Whitner (who imo is soso in coverage) and Cox or trumane (who shouldnt have any trouble keeping up with the speed receivers). DW can be targeted with a second good TE but few teams have them. Cox and TB will be facing 3rd and 4th WR unles there is a blown assignment.
I believe Cox was a 5th rounder largely due to off-field concerns (he was suspended for the Cotton Bowl and wasn’t allowed to participate at his school’s pro day) – leading up the draft he was considered to have much earlier round potential. A bit like Tarell Brown.
He’s a talented player and if he has matured and learned his lessons from the past couple of years he could be a real steal for the 49ers. And he’s more than just a slot corner – he can play on the outside too and is a good punt returner.
He’s got very good short area quickness (one of the reasons he’s also good returning punts) which would make him ideal for covering quick slot WRs. He may only run a 4.56 40, so sticking with a fast guy deep may be an issue. But if he comes up against a guy with great deep speed, there will be help over the top. The idea that slot corners are left on their own is not strictly true – on the short passes sure, but if it is going deep there will be safety help over the top.
Cox should be a significant upgrade over Reggie Smith in the dime package. And if he’s not better than the opponents 4th WR, I’ll be very surprised.
I’ve ragged on you before a little, Grant, so I wanted to give you your props on this post. This was a well-written, insightful piece. I enjoyed reading it and it made me think. Kudos.
If teams want to go empty backfield, pull Soap, not Bowman. Don’t worry about run, 4 man rush with A Smith and Brooks on outside, McDonald an J Smith on inside. Bowman spies. Willis covers TE, 5 DBs.
exactly
no safety help over the top? everyone on an island?
@gfan
I read “5 DB’s” as safety help. If it had said “5 CB’s”, I’d understand your question.
And the Niners can just play zone. I don’t hear much about safety help up over the top when teams play zone.
I’ll clarify. I had miscounted.
5 DBs = 4 CB + 1 safety… not a lot of over coverage for a 5-wide set or a 4-wide + TE. I’m not saying it cant work, just saying it’s a risky scenario to only have one safety over the top, which means someone MUST be on an island with a “Go” route on the outside.
Got it.
Though I still think the day of constant 4 and 5 WR’s will never come. Without a RB/TE you expose your team to a late blitz. No RB to pick him up, and you are gambling the blitz won’t get there. All it takes is 1time and you lose your QB. As a D, you only give up a TD. Something that won’t derail the rest of the season like losing your starting QB would. The greater risk is on the offense. And probability suggests that over a season, where there are over 1,000 plays, that will happen.
For that reason alone, going 5WR all the time is risky. And you risk your franchise over a slight advantage….not a good return rate on that gamble.
We can get enough pressure to keep teams from doing this a lot
I don’t see us taking Bowman off the field a lot.
He will add coverage to his repetoir this year, just like Willis did last year.
We will get RJF on the field as a pass rusher more this year too,
Nice read Grant. I am here in the land of the Detroit Lions. My son in law is an avid lions fan. When I was greeted at the airport I gave him as firm of a handshake as I could muster, and definate slap on the back. He kind of looks at me and I got a chance to gloat about there wimpy coach. The lions fans think JH is crazy.
Crazy like a fox…
They must like noodle-arm handshakes as opposed to firm handshakes.
I would greatly enjoy a thorough and dominant beat down week 2 vs. the Lions. At least 3 Ints, Knock Stafford out of the game and maybe a RB. Play our backups most of the 4th quarter with a victory by 3 scores.
Careful, Razor! Don’t talk about knocking Stafford out of the game or you’ll get summoned to The Commissioner’s Office.
BTW, I don’t think either coach or team will have a problem getting up for that game. Just guessing……….
we have the best coaching staff in the league…they have a few months to prepare the most ferocious d in the world. im not worried about our 4th string corner…rodgers wont hav enuf time n the pocket to find him. AR will be lucky if he even plays in wk.2
I know this is off Topic but oh well, haha what are some good hotels to stay at in San Francisco… im looking to go to the october 18th game thursday night football.. Any help? thanks
DS94everXev says:
July 8, 2012 at 2:12 pm
“You guys are so easy.
Somebody gives absolute facts about AR, and just because they don’t paint him in the light you suck up to him, you freak out. AR lost his cool last post-season, and didn’t manage himself or the game well. They lost that game because of it. AR lost that game guys. Sorry,but it is true. Just like I said mid-last season. GB will not make it to the title game to earn the right to play us.
Always the first to defend non-Niners. AR has never done what he’s done against a true force of nature which our D is. Healthy teams now. Not the TP less Pitt or the injury riddled Bears of last season. He lost his cool.”
DS, are you sure you’re not on the Press Democrate payroll? I don’t know of anyone on this blog who can stir-up the kind of controversy that you do. If Grant receives a percentage for the volume of hits, you should receive a cut because many of your comments certainly incite a good amount of replies (lol).
Now, here’s my question to you for today. Reply if you want.
First my theory.
I feel that AR is to AS what L.Fitz is to MC.
When you made some references at the end of the season about the idea of having LF play for the 49ers what were you basing that on? Afterall, according to your theory, AS must be on equal ground or even better than AR given the fact that AR didn’t take his team as far as AS did, right?
So then, according to your opinion, MC is on the same level or even better than LF because he went into the post season, right?
I know that my analogy may be a stretch, but it may not be to far from you comparing AS to AR.
By the way, where did AS finish in the recent NFLnetwork’ player’ poll of the 100 best players in 2011?
“I feel that AR is to AS what L.Fitz is to MC.”
Not even close. Attitude. If AS had MC’s attitude and everything else that has happened to the team/him happened, AS would not be on this team or any other come year 8.
msc had a video link a little while back, where AR is describing the draft and being passed over. He went on and on and whined and complained about how all these teams (especially John Gruden’s Bucs who had promised to take him at #5 and didn’t) didn’t draft him.
Let’s play the game, and say that the two were reversed (Niners pick AR, AS goes to GB). I really don’t think AS is complaining about it (certainly not 7-8 years later), or has that disgusted look in his face during the draft that AR had. I think AS goes to work. He does his best, and with the team GB assembles around him, I bet he is pretty good.
And let’s be clear. I wouldn’t nag on AR so much if people didn’t talk about him all the freaking time. This is a Niners blog. Keep the focus on Niners players. I’ve read AR is this and AR is that for so long now, I’m sick of it. The guy has only won 1 Super Bowl. Yet, people talk about him like he has won 8. Give me a break.
If KW does not fumble the ball, or Dixon keeps his feet for another step, or the Niners pass rush gets pressure on EM on 3rd and 17, or AS somehow makes another comeback (can’t nag on him too much for that. Comebacks in the playoffs are hard. And even the great one himself never had two comeback playoff games in the same season), or MC actually gets open during that drive with about 1:42 left or so in regulation (I’m keeping it to all things that happen in the 4th quarter because that is where I feel games more than not are won or lost), or the refs call a fumble a fumble, AS also has 1 Super Bowl trophy. We beat the snot out of TB. His wife begs him to consider retirement if he plays us that day.
And AS will have won his first Super Bowl the year after AR. All the more remarkable considering the situation. Oh well. We had to hold off the party for another year.
“I know that my analogy may be a stretch, but it may not be to far from you comparing AS to AR. ”
You mean like everybody here does? Some get upset with me comparing AS to JM/SY/AR/TB etc. Well, who do we compare him with? Can you answer me that AES? If there is nobody, then why all the angst about him? Nobody is good or bad unless you have something to compare. Otherwise you have nothing. And, that would be quite a feat as well. After 100 or so years of pro football, there has not been anybody like AS. That is a compliment in my book. If people are not comparing AS to AR, why are they talking about him so much on a NINERS blog?
“DS, are you sure you’re not on the Press Democrate payroll? ”
Waiting for the paycheck. Where is it Grant! lol
I didn’t talk about LF during the season, or since FA (more or less) ended very often have I? Yet pick your time of year. people are always loving AR. Plus given the Niners activity in acquiring new players, LF at least plays the position they went got a lot of. Telling me, they were not so happy with how last years WR’s ended the season.
“By the way, where did AS finish in the recent NFLnetwork’ player’ poll of the 100 best players in 2011?”
I have no idea. Don’t get the channel. Nor do I remotely care. I know where AS ranked among his teammates. That is the only poll that matters. AS plays with them. Not the rest of the NFL. Blake Costanzo (your guy) said after the NO game that the Niners would not choose anybody else during the Comcast post game show. They believe in him. Wish the fans here did as well.
P.S. Where did JS rank in 2010? 2009? 2008? Guess what? I don’t care. I like the guy no matter what. Have since he got here. I’m not going to be told by some TV channel where/who I should like and in what order.
AES,
Are you wasting your weekend on DS?, the guy or what ever it is does not know football and I know for sure his IQ on QB’s is next to nothing.
DS94everXev says:
July 8, 2012 at 4:55 pm
“I feel that AR is to AS what L.Fitz is to MC.”
“Not even close. Attitude. If AS had MC’s attitude and everything else that has happened to the team/him happened, AS would not be on this team or any other come year 8.”
DS, you make this statement on the heels of saying’ “always the first to defend non-niners.” Yup, your defense of MC (a niner) has really been extraordinary (lol).
I guess in your world only AS is to be defended.
In any case, your continued criticism of MC’ so-called attitude is old and tired. Even JR was said to have had his moments when he felt the ball was coming to him as much as he thought it should have been.
Can you confirm on this blog that LF has never had a meltdown when he got frustrated at the QB play?
If MC’ numbers would have been pedestrian last season you might have a case, but when he finishes as one of our best WR’ your coninued lamenting falls on deaf ears.
Going back to that.
I’m not going there. Already explained it to you a million times. A million +1 won’t make a difference. Short and accurate answer is “Attitude.”
Enjoy the rest of your weekend AES
:- )
Thanks, you to DS.
Lets play the game. F8ck the stats.
You can’t tell me anyone expected the 49ers to win the way they won against the Saints. You can’t tell me anyone expected the 49ers to lose the way they lost to the Giants. Play the game!
Should be interesting to see how well Harbaugh has the team prepared to play the first game in Lambeau.
Great first game for the league and the 49ers.
The assumption that the 49ers will go dime against spread formations maybe erroneous. I would guess more often than not the 49ers will stick with their nickle personnel. The Chicago Bears for example never play dime even against the Green Bay Packers 4 and 5 wide sets. They trust their All-Pro linebackers in Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs to handle the situation and make plays.
One of the best examples of this may be the great Buffalo Bills comeback in the playoffs against the Houton Oilers. The Bills were missing their best LB in Cornelius Bennett for that game so they decided to use dime as their base defense against Houston’s 4 WR run and shoot offense. Houston’s offense shredded them in the first half.
In the second half the Bills changed their defense and went back to their LBs. They played their two ILBs Shane Conlan and Carlton Bailey, neither one a great athlete, out in space over Houston’s slot receivers. Should have been a disaster, but watching the replay you can see how much more effective it was. A lot of the time you’re better off sticking with your starting linebacker, rather than playing your 4th corner.
I suspect the 49ers were also stick with their nickel more often than not and trust in Willis and Bowman to play in space. And when your nickel DEs are outside linebackers like Brooks and Aldon Smith are there is even more reason to stick with the nickle because of the zone blitz packages available.
Bowman covering a 4.3 slot guy is a tough matchup for the All Pro.
Teams almost universally play some version of a zone against spread offenses even if they are in dime. They’re not playing flag football. Bowman isn’t defending a 4.3 slot guy (By the way do you realize how rare a 4.3 slot guy actually is?). He’s defending a defined space and reading his keys. You might be surprised how much more effective a really good linebacker than a dime corner.
The Vikings have two 4.3 slot guys – Percy Harvin and Jarius Wright. The Niners play them Week 3. Bowman can’t cover Wright or Harvin. Offenses are using more and more spread formations, so defenses are using more and more dime. The Texans use dime almost exclusively. The Niners will have to use some next season, and when they do Bowman will have to come off the field.
The Packers have two 4.4 slot guys – Greg Jennings and Randall Cobb. As good as Bowman is, there is no zone he can cover with that much speed on offensive side of the field.
The example I used is was the Chicago Bears who happen to play in the same division as both the Packers and the Vikings, and that has to play them twice each season. A team that has been consistently good defensively for years now, and they have and will continue to play nickle against both the Packers and the Vikings, and the Lions and every other team that goes spread.
The Vikings are an example of team that’s going to force the 49ers defense into dime? I think you’re mistaken that the 49ers will allow the likes of Jarius Wright or anyone else on that team to force them into dime.
Yes, the Texans and other teams play dime. They also typically don’t have the likes of Willis and Bowman at linebacker. Is Bowman deserving of being All-Pro or not? If he is, he should be on the field. We’ll see this season. I hope you do pay attention to this during the season.
Grant
The Vikings don’t scare anybody. 4.3 speed or not. We are a team that is far superior to them. That QB of theirs will have to read our defenses and since we messed with the mind of Drew Brees in the playoff game (that DG Int in particular), I don’t think we’ll have any trouble confusing the 2nd year QB.
Besides, they depend on the run. End of story.
Sure is interesting how some here say they want me to go away, but when I’m here, they do nothing but reply to my material. Interesting approach to wanting somebody to leave. Do nothing else but reply to their posts. Makes no sense. Until you realize that the same people vacated the blog after every Niner win, and somehow found access to the Net after a Niner loss. Then it all clears up. Haters. Gotta hate.
AES had a point. Grant, I do deserve a paycheck from the PD. I come on, and get lots of replies. Hate me or not. I do get them for the Press Democrat.
How is the health care/pension/401k plan down there in Santa Rosa?
And AES deserves to be my agent.
DS, thanks, but no thanks on the agent deal (lol).
But at the rate you’re going here bud, a Bodyguard may be more appropos!
AES
Go back and look at some of the replies I got when I first arrived if you like.
I am actually in the process of down-sizing my staff from that time-point.
lol
nice article Grant