SANTA CLARA – When asked whom he expects to face this Sunday, Michael Crabtree smiled, shrugged and said, “I don’t know, man. I don’t know what to expect.”
Here’s what you can expect: He probably will not face much of No.1 cornerback Tramon Williams, whom the Packers list as their left cornerback. Left cornerbacks typically line up against flankers and the 49ers list Randy Moss, not Crabtree, as their flanker.
Crabtree is listed as the starting split end, so he’ll probably face the Packers’ right cornerback. But the Packers haven’t named their starting right cornerback yet. They’re expected to make that announcement tomorrow when they release their first official depth chart.
Jarrett Bush and Sam Shields are the two main candidates for the job. Bush (6-foot-0, 200 pounds) has started just seven games in his six-year career, while Shields (5-11, 184) has started 13 games since he was drafted in 2010.
I’m guessing the Packers will choose Bush to cover Crabtree this Sunday, because Bush is big and strong. Shields would give up nearly 30 pounds to Crabtree.
It is possible Crabtree will face both Bush and Shields. In the Packers’ divisional playoff loss to the Giants, Bush played on first and second downs and Shields played on third downs.
Whomever he faces, Crabtree should have a big advantage.
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Is my memory correct that Crabtree’s 1st NFL TD came against GB at Lambeau?
Sure was Mike. Grant has some wonderful parting gifts for you : )
Which Crabtree will have more catches Sunday?
Which Smith will be responsible for more TDs?
Crab, your a funny dude. I’ll have to give you some tutorials in initials. lol
LOL!! For sure Hoff!! You and good ol’ DS have the art of intialing down pat!! Your posts read like an eye chart sometimes, lol!!
Hofe, DS – When I predominantly see players/coaches initials when previewing a post, I know it’s one of you guys. No name needed. :-)
Crab, many that comment here use initials very similar to texting. Not that difficult to decipher. lol
Then people have my pattern down.
: – )
Hopefully that will help keeping the discussion on football.
jsand – Did you know the Packers have a TE named Tom Crabtree? He’s a white dude, no relation to MC :-).
Why will MC have a big advantage Grant?
Need to describe that part.
Because he’s much bigger than Shields and much better than Bush.
They seem quite inexperienced. 13 games and 5 games. MC should be able to take them to school.
Are the Pack really starting the season with 2 guys who totaled 18 games? Can’t believe that.
Davon House was supposed to be their No.2 cb but he hurt his shoulder in the first preseason game.
Grant
That explains a bit.
But the Pack are expected to be a high scoring team. So opponents would have to pass against them. One would think they would have gotten 2 really good CB’s.
Doesn’t seem they are really set up to play their type of game. If you have a high power offense, you need to get good CB’s. You can let the run D go some. But why let the pass D be so inexperienced?
Plus they have to put the fastest guy on RM regardless. Can’t let him run free. The game will end quickly.
The blogmaster has quite a sense of humor, putting tape over the mouth of DS’s icon : )
Jack
Go away.
Your avatar picture changes constantly. Very fitting of you and your positions.
No DS, it has been that little cog with glasses for quite some time. Nice try though little buddy.
Remember who Williams was before the Pack coaching staff got him under their tutelage. Also, remember CWood is still on campus and more than happy to show the youngsters the ropes. Advantage: Packers.
Sorry Mike, you still need to prove yourself.
I got this one Grant. He is taller and outweighs Shields by 30+ pounds, even after he trimmed down this offseason (Which Grant mentioned). And Bush has been in the league 6 seasons and only has 7 starts, he has very little experience covering starting receivers, he has been primarily used a nickle and dime corner in years past.
Looks like you answered while i was typing. Haha.
Well put. Thanks, Adam707.
I’m not normally negative, but something about playing in Lambeau really bugs me. I don’t have a good feeling about week 1.
Why? Remember what Harbaugh is here to accomplish. It started last year with improving an abysmal road record and even worse in the 10 am games, and it will continue this year with ending long droughts, like Niners not winning in Lambeau since 1990.
Since the loss in the NFC C.G. I have no doubt that each of these players is hungry to get back on the field.
LSX, better now than in Nov or Dec. The 9ers will be ready but nothing can be taken for granted.
This game sets up nicely for how the 49ers operate. Strong running game, with a few shot plays mixed in for the offense, and a defense that does a good job of minimizing the big play and is tough in the RZ.
This is going to be a very fun game to watch.
Jack
The absence of Haralson has me concerned. I’m not to worried about the 49er O vs the Packer D. That advantage there goes to the 49ers.
By the way, no one has mentioned special teams yet. I think ST play will also be key to this game and whether or not Ginn plays.
Hey Nick, what happened to the “row”. Was it gettin in the way of double posting or just didn’t like the name calling that went with it?
Either way, your still slow, doo, and don’t know jack about football!
meh – Haralson’s strength was on running downs and the Packers only run often enough to satisfy tradition.
Later in the season we might miss PH but for the Packer’s game I’m sure Aldon will be fine.
The good news on the Haralson front is that is the stout “run stuffer” while Aldon is the pass rushing specialist… so with the rest of the D being so good at run stopping, it is more important to have the contributions in the pass rush… but no injuries are good. Aldon should be serviceable stopping the run, and he won’t be dropping into coverage often, so rushing the passer is still his primary objective, and that is really helpful when playing a spread attack like GB has.
…@Prime….nick and neal are cousins….and they are “special”
I’m not too worried about that Nick. Aldon was slated to be the everydown guy anyway, and Haggans should be able to spot him for a few plays if necessary, and they will be in Nickle so much they can rotate in one of the other DE’s.
From what I have read, even if Haggans is suspended for a bit, that isn’t expected to take effect until wk2.
We should sign Reggie Smith backa nd release Darcell McBath. Our backup Safeties are garbage
+1
CJ Spillman is not garbage. Get a TV before you post again.
DS
Irememberyou bragging about Spillman being this great tackler, but in the preseason, he was out there completely whiffing on guys. Hedidnt even define himself as the number 3 safety. Fangio was not happy with him. Hopefully, he picks it up in the regular season.
Jordan,
That belief was based primarily off his tackle by the goal line against the Ravens on Thanksgiving. Other then that Spillman is a ST ace that will hopefully develop into an everydown safety.
Jack,
I remember the tackle, it was huge and saved a TD. However, this preseason, he missed a lot of tackles. His only half decent game was the last one and he straight whiffed on a guy in that one .
On another note, Taylor Mays left here not being able to cover. However, he is laying the wood in Cinncinati.
Reggie Smith was cut by the Panthers. The Panthers – one of the worst defenses in the league.
He seems like a good guy and I won’t object at all if the 49ers bring him back but I can’t understand pining over him. He’s just a guy.
MC should have a good game. I’m thinking 6 catches 80 yds. He and MM will be the focus this game for the 9ers along with strong running from FG and KH with RMoss scoring a TD from the RZ. The 9ers will be ready. Good times.
Dude KH will have an awesome year! Hope defenses don’t forget about him
hof
Judging from what Grant has said, I don’t think any of our WR’s should have difficulty getting open.
And we should be able to run as well. Only real concern is the Pack Pass rush vs our OL not giving the WR’s/AS time to pass.
Yes we know AS get’s dump quite often, and Roman wants him to change, what was it 44 times last year that he got sacked, yea looks good with low interceptions but he needs tobe better and find other options.
Hofer,
That is why Smith has to learn to anticipate receivers being open and throw to that spot. I fear he may never be able to do that. Rod Brooks of knbr talked about that today. I mentioned the story up here before that during a game one Sunday a couple of years ago, he said that the receivers were complaining that they were running free and Smith wouldn’t pull the trigger. He said his number 1 concern is what her or not Smith will be able to recognize receivers open and throw them the ball. The saying in the NFLfor a wide receiver being open is, ” If I’m even, I’m leavin’!”
That means, throw me the damn ball! Lol
Where are all those WR from a couple years ago? My second question is when have you ever heard a WR say he was not open?
Eric Davis said the same thing. Said Smithhad better work on seeing the whole field. Said he cannot hold the ball and hurt the offense by taking so many sacks.
Grant it was a good interview maybe you could post the transcript. It was Rod Brooks and Eric Davis.
@bayareafanatic:
Wow, you will clutch at anything to denigrate the QB of the team you say you support. For months, you have claimed that Smith gets spooked by the pass rush and too quickly gets rid of the ball by throwing the check down pass. With this comment, you have done a complete 180 and now assert that Smith takes so many sacks because he holds onto the ball too long. Which is it?
Are you from Massachusetts? I only ask because you flip-flop like John Kerry and Mitt Romney.
By the way, the numbers absolutely do not support the assertion that Smith holds onto the ball too long. Do you want to flip back to your original position?
@Claude,
Eric Davis is a pro bowl superbowl winning QB that now covers the niners and Rod Brooks is their sideline reporter. Do you know more than them about the subject?
Grant, get this yahoo Eric Davis’s email address so that Claude can debate, cut and paste his way in Eric Davis’s heart……
Jordo,
MC has to prove he can catch those tough passes. In the past they’ve bounced off his hands or were drops. I believe he and AS get the chemistry going this year. BTW, you are quoting who? Really!!! lol
Meant CB lol….
Bay, EDavis also said when MS was here that the QB was a coach killer. Now with JH here and the team record of 13-3 in 2011, is the QB a coach SAVIOR.
a coach SAVIOR??
Ummm you mean the defense and David Akers are the coach saviors don’t you? 11 has to prove himself. In my household we aren’t entitled, we earn. But hey, all arrows up! All in!
MC has to do it in the 4th quarter. He tends to start games off well, and then vanish as the game goes on.
Maybe it was his conditioning. I thought his arms were bigger now (KW is unrecognizable). If that was it, then he should be as good in the 4th as he is in the first. JR had unbelievable conditioning that he tired out the CB’s. By the 4th, he had an advantage. And he made a lot of big plays in the 4th.
Bay,
Saying Smith lacks field vision is not a new concept. Many objective observera of this team have noted that. It’s a limitation to his game that they can mask in this system through the use of play action to limit the number of reads.
That being said, it’s the dawn of a new season and take solace in the fact he has the best staff around him in his career and they will squeeze every ounce they can out of his abilities.
@bay:
Eric Davis certainly knows more about football than I do, and his opinions certainly carry more weight than mine, but the numbers simply don’t support his opinion on this issue.* I’ll be happy to show you, yet again, the statistics that tend to disprove the notion that Smith takes too many sacks because he holds onto the ball too long, but that issue was clearly secondary in my comment.
My primary point was that you are so obsessively desperate to criticize Alex Smith that you will take wildly inconsistent, and even diametrically opposed, positions regarding his play. In this case, you have argued (a) that Smith gets rid of the ball too quickly and (b) that Smith holds onto the ball too long. Although I am sure you will try, you cannot have it both ways. Which is it?
Welcher that he is, even 23jordan has managed to reign in his anti-Alex Smith nonsense. His recent comments have covered a variety of topics, and his focus seems to be more team-oriented. You, on the other hand, seem to be stuck in your irrational anti-Smith hate bubble. What’s with that? It’s tired, played out, and more than a little lame. Can’t you give it a rest and try to enjoy the coming season? Or at least let the rest of us do so?
* Of course, I am assuming that you have accurately represented Davis’ comments. Given your history or projecting your views onto your descriptions of what others have said, that may not be such a wise assumption.
Bay, you are discounting everything the 9er did last year? Yes DAkers was a major part, but saying the QB was only a minor part in 2011 is letting your agenda shine through.
You believe you are correct with your QB assertion and ask us to debate with radio personalities because of their so-called knowledge but you should follow your own suggestion and think about debating the brain trust at 4949. I don’t believe they agree with you.
Bay try and show and unbiased opinion once in awhile. That interview was 2 years ago. Your hate for Smith is clearly personal, don’t need that here, its football, entertainment, you are making it personal now. What has #11, a great winning QB ever done to you?
When it comes to listening to ex-jocks about football, I follow a simple rule.
If that player played that position, then he has a lot of merit. He knows exactly what the player has to do. What he sees. Etc.
If that player has not played the position, then I don’t give him nearly so much cred. I’ve seen a lot of DL say a lot of stupid things about QB’s over the years. And QB’s saying stupid things about what a DL should have done on the flip side.
When it comes to QB, I’ll listen to JM/SY/TA/RG/TB (Terry Bradshaw – that is for you el!). And you know what? They say very different things about the QB (any QB) than the other ex-jocks. Stuff that really makes a lot more sense. The other ex jocks don’t give me any more inshight than a fan. The explayer of the position though does give me a lot more insight than any regular fan.
So, I’ll listen carefully to Davis about CB because he played it. I’ll listen to JR carefully about WR issues because he played it. But when it comes to players discussing other positions in which they didn’t play, they don’t sound any more knowledgable than many fans do. Except they are talking to a whole country, and we are just in our living room.
@ Prime Time:
Bay try and show and unbiased opinion once in awhile. That interview was 2 years ago.
You are kidding, right? Bay was not referring to a 2 year old interview, was he?
If we look at last seasons numbers and more importantly the results, then I am encouraged by the improvements Smith has made. As Claude said, the Oline was a big part of the sack problem, but there is also some legitimacy imo, to the fact Smith doesn’t always pull the trigger when he’s got an open man .
From being Coached and Coaching myself, that usually is a result of indecision due to not being completely confident in what you are seeing. It comes from not knowing the offense completely and trusting that your receivers are seeing the same things you are. The windows are so small and short in the NFL and a QB has to often throw on faith and the timing he’s worked out in practice. With what we know of Alex, he’s not a guy who will be completely confident until he knows the offense inside out. Last year he didn’t, but the playcalling and Coaching forced Alex to take only what he was given. He said himself he was starting to play this way before last year so it was a good combination going into last season. This year, with the added time to work and understand the goal and expectations of every play, I think Alex will have the best season of his career.
I don’t think we’ll see Smith as a 4000+ yard passer anytime soon, but he doesn’t have to be in this offense. What he has to do is take advantage of not only what the defense is giving him, but to not be afraid to take the shot when it presents itself. This offense can be a lot like the one in Houston if Smith gains not only full trust in the system (which I think he already has) but the openings he will hopefully see and take advantage of in playaction. He will never be a gunslinger, but there’s something to be said of the calm cold and collected assassin as well.
The biggest difference I see in Alex this season from watching and reading is he seems to finally have confidence that he can do it and do it his way. He’s got a F you attitude towards his detractors which is long overdue. If you can play this game under control with an edge bordering on anger, you can be very successful. Hopefully Smith has found that.
@claude, Rod Brooks was converting the team 2 years ago so most likely that interview took place then. Regardless bringing up reporters views or trying to find articles that are anti or even pro Alex are so unnecessary. It’s a new season, new team, why do the haters bring up things that have been discussed In the past relentlessly. Its not relevant now is it?
Bay has a personal issue with Alex. No way you repeat the same criticism year after year when the org. has shown he is their guy. He is trying to find any info that says otherwise, why?
You know that answer already.
Last year bay told me that he doesn’t need to look at stats to prove AS sucks. That he can tell by watching him. Then we won games. And he has been doing his best to find proof that his eyeball test was true ever since.
@rocket:
It comes from not knowing the offense completely and trusting that your receivers are seeing the same things you are.
This.
It seems* like Smith has had more success throwing to some receivers than to others. Compare his throws to Davis with his throws to Crabtree. I get the sense that, although Smith and Davis usually were on the same page, particularly towards the end of the season, Smith and Crabtree often weren’t. For example, I wonder whether some of Smith’s high passes, which seemed to come disproportionately on throws to Crabtree, were the result of Crabtree not being where Smith expected him to be. I am not saying that the fault necessarily lay with Crabtree, just that he and Smith weren’t on the same page.
My hope is that another year in the system, this time with a full off-season and with Crabtree participating for much of it, will lead to Smith and Crabtree being more in synch. I would be more confident if I have seen a hint of it in the preseason, but it appears that Harbaugh wanted to keep the offense under wraps and save some surprises for the regular season. Let’s hope the surprises are happy ones.
*Note: I say “seems” because I have not seen any statistical breakdown showing Smith’s success/lack thereof in throwing to individual receivers.
Nice try Smithers,
the interview was last week. Grant, maybe you should post it?
Bay,
There’s a more current article using stats/facts. EBranch of the SF Chronicle wrote an article that stated in the last 24 games played, AS is ranked 7th among active QBs with a rating of 92.8. Do you follow those reads Bay? AS is still ascending at the young age of 28!
hof
More specificaly, it was the game since Eagles game of 2010. AS said screw it, and started to make the throws he wanted.
MS/MN always told AS “make a play”. Well, it led to the records that we had. SAS after that told himself it was ok to throw a 3 yard pass on 3rd and 10. Since that Eagles game, AS has a much better record. We’ve won more games since. AS has had more comeback wins, more TD’s and a heck of a lot fewer Int’s.
And JH thinks the same way. Don’t force a play. Game situations may call for different things, but the default mode is to not force it.
Come on Hof,
we all know the QRS is flawed. If he were truly ranked 7th or 9th as the current QB rating system has him ranked then we would be golden. Or All arrows up, or All in or whatever you say.
We all know Smith’s QB rating is high because he chooses the safe pass which leads to a high completion rate which also leads to low turnovers. The story ENDS THERE. Because it also leads to low yardage, it doesn’t move the chains. It leads to bottom of the league third down conversions. It leads to lowest QB scoring in the entire league for full time starter. It also leads to terrible red zone stats. Spin that Hof.
The best QB performances I’ve seen a Niner have in the last two years were one quarter by Scott Tolzien, and the last half of football I saw CK play. Play that actually resembles QB play.
…it also leads to the NFC championship game
Bay,
You are discounting the facts? The 9ers play GB on Sunday and you are stuck in a time warp? The team has been upgraded on offense – WRs and RBs. There’s quite a bit to be optimistic about with this team and you’re not acknowledging it. You wish to focus on only the negative. Why don’t you debate MD? He thinks AS will be a top 7 QB this year! Good times!
Bay, you cannot pick and choose stats that work for your arguement then discount others who use a different form of stats. Thats bush!
Anyway, you should be looking forward to another season of winning football and hold your critcism til what you see the end result is on the field. No battles or arguements are ever won on a blog. Its about wins and loses. Can Alex win games or not? This is all that really matters? BTW, who is Rod Brookes anyways?
@Bay:
We all know Smith’s QB rating is high because he chooses the safe pass which leads to a high completion rate which also leads to low turnovers. The story ENDS THERE. Because it also leads to low yardage, it doesn’t move the chains. It leads to bottom of the league third down conversions. It leads to lowest QB scoring in the entire league for full time starter. It also leads to terrible red zone stats. Spin that Hof.
You’re the one who’s spinning. You forgot to mention that it also led to 13-3 and an appearance in the NFC Championship game. That’s actually where the story ended.
The best QB performances I’ve seen a Niner have in the last two years were one quarter by Scott Tolzien, and the last half of football I saw CK play. Play that actually resembles QB play.
The New Orleans Saints would like to point out that you are full of crap.
Why, when caught posting b/s, is your response always to double down and post more b/s? Is your ego that fragile?
FDM
Agree. You either have to dismiss stats or take them all. Just like quotes. Can’t pick and choose. It’s fine doing either (no right or wrong). But it is wrong to only look at stats/quotes which fit your stance.
And Rod is a KNBR 680 radio jockey. From 12-3
M-F
http://knbr.com/ShowsSchedule/FitzandBrooks/tabid/594/Default.aspx
Not sure Bay is worth any rebuttal or discussion. He is an Alex hater, no matter what. It’s personal, he has hated Alex forever. Something happened along the way. No way a fan can hate a player that much, impossible!
@Prime Time:
I think you mean there’s no way a REAL FAN can hate a player that much.
Bay,
You are correct on the rating stuff. It plays perfect for Smith due to his low int totals.
This is a new year, with new weapons. How about we give him a week or two before going down this road? I see your point of view, but think we should give it a couple weeks. Maybe Harbaugh/Roman have him ready.
@ Claude,
you are correct. The N.O. game was one I’ll never forget. Problem is games like that are not even close to the norm for Smith. In 8 years he’s had 4 games like that maybe where he is on fire. Which means he plays out of his mind like 7% of the time?
New season lets see how it goes.
>>If he were truly ranked 7th or 9th as the current QB rating system has him ranked then we would be golden.
yes bay, truly AVERAGE.
Do you remember what a guy named Bayareafanatic said he would do if Smith was average this year? Who’s going to be your new team, REAL fan?
Bay,
You can’t compare what you’ve seen from Tolzien and Kap in preseason to a regular season performance from Smith. He still has weakness’ but he’s in his second year in the same system and has a pretty good team around him. Let’s see what happens over the course of a few games before determining Smith’s fate.
“You can’t compare what you’ve seen from Tolzien and Kap in preseason to a regular season performance from Smith.”
Rocket, the point is that Bay has done that correlation of preseason to the regular season yet he doesn’t see it as a poor metric for analysis. He views and weighs a half of a preseason game as equal to the Championship game. Where’s the logic?
Bay discounts the quarterback rating system that has been used for years. There are QBs in the HoF with ratings below 85 (TAikman, TBradshaw, JElway, and JKelly). There are some calling EManning elite with a career rating of 82.1 but they still discount the rating system.
There is no logic in that comparison Hof. Preseason is played at half speed by most of the starters in this league, nevermind the level of competition Kap and Tolzien face is a joke.
I really like both of these guys, but you can’t compare their experience level or playing speed to Smith at this point.
Bay/Claude,
Ran across this regarding the NFL QB Rating and thought I’d share it to help with your debate…
http://www.nfl.com/qs/footballogy/index.jsp?module=HP11_content_stream
@Jack:
That’s a pretty superficial look at the formula. It highlights anomalies at the extreme margins, but ignores how useful the formula is 99.9% of the time.
I prefer Kerry Byrne’s more extensive examination of the passer rating formula. You can find it here. I found it both illuminating and persuasive.
In particular, check out the Correlation to Victory slide and the various slides on passer rating differential.
Thanks for the link Claude. There is no doubt the passer rating stat is helpful to determine winning/losing and that the best QB’s generally end up with the best ratings.
I stand by my point that the lack of int’s played a big part of helping Smith to the #9 rating as well. Smith’s conservative style plays perfect for this stat.
I don’t say that to reduce the accomplishment, his lack of int’s played a large role in the team’s success in 2011. Hopefully he can maintain that while adding a few more TD’s to go along with it.
@ Jack:
I stand by my point that the lack of int’s played a big part of helping Smith to the #9 rating as well. Smith’s conservative style plays perfect for this stat.
No question. Three follow up points.
1. It’s not that Smith’s play is perfect for the passer rating stat that is relevant. It’s that it’s well-suited for winning football. Look at the Correlation to Victory slide. Right after passer rating formula, winning the interception battle is the statistic most correlated to winning. Teams that win the interception battle win 78.5% of games played. It would not surprise me to learn that the developers of the passer rating formula had the correlation in mind when devising the formula.
2. By contrast, the much lower correlation number for passing yards (.544 vs .785) shows just how misguided it is to complain about the 49ers’ “29th ranked” or “29th most productive” passing attack. That statistic clearly trails interceptions in importance.
3. For the foregoing reasons, Smith’s conservative style of play is also perfect for Harbaugh. In fact, I would say it isn’t just Smith’s style of play; it’s obviously also Harbaugh’s style of play. I don’t know if you have watched the Harbaugh QB clinic on youtube (I assume you have, but in case you haven’t, I’ll mention it), but in that video, Harbaugh stresses that the most important thing a QB can do is to protect the football and avoid turnovers.
Cluade
The following is a quote from SFGATE regarding AS/JH and AS’s approach to the game:
“In the first five games of 2010, he threw nine interceptions in 190 attempts and compiled a 71.6 rating. In his final six games, a scattered stretch interrupted by a shoulder injury and two benchings, he threw one interception in 152 attempts and posted a 95.5 rating.
Although few noticed, the transformation had begun. And then Smith joined forces with Harbaugh, a head coach who endorsed his approach.
“I kind of put some decent football together at the end of that (2010) season and it led into last year,” Smith said. “I continued to play that way and it was reinforced by coach Harbaugh. It was pushed. It was encouraged: ‘Play this way. If they’re giving you the check down on 3rd-and-10, take the check down.”
http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2012/09/01/having-nothing-to-lose-liberated-smith/
Proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that JH likes how AS plays the QB position. Anybody not on board with his style had best get off now. Because the HC fully embraces AS’s style which led to 14-4.
*claude*
Claude,
I agree with your points. Let me ask you this, if Smith puts up those exact same stats in 2012 how do you think the team will fare?
They caught a lot of breaks along the way to those 14 wins last year. I am inclined to think they need him to have better numbers in yards and TD’s to come close to last years results. The increase in yards coming from increased 3rd down efficiency, and the increase in TD’s coming from increased RZ efficiency.
Jack:
I am not a big fan of making predictions. There are too many unpredictable factors that affect winning and losing for me to think that I know what will happen.
That said, and keeping the conversation within the statistical framework established, I would agree that Smith likely will need to raise his passer rating in 2012 for the 49ers to do as well as they did last year.
The 49ers’ defense will face better QBs in 2012 and therefore they likely will give up a higher passer rating to those QBs. For the 49ers to win like they did last year, Smith will have to compensate with a higher passer rating. Since he cannot do much better in the interceptions/attempt department, the improvement will have to come from the other components, namely, completion percentage, yards/attempt and TDs/attempt.
The good news is threefold. First, the 49ers will be facing weaker defenses in 2012 than they faced in 2011. Even if the team had returned the same offensive lineup, Smith’s rating would be expected to rise. Second, the 49ers are coming into 2012 with an improved offensive lineup, which also should help improve Smith’s numbers. Third, it’s Smith’s second year in the system and he actually had an offseason to study and learn it, so he should improve his performance.
If I were a betting man, I’d say that TDs/attempt is the component most likely to improve, followed by completion percentage.
As always, my one caveat is the performance of the offensive line. Let’s hope that it also improves and pray that it doesn’t regress.
We need to stop agreeing on this Claude. I have a good feeling about this season for Smith and the offense. I expect to see a similar improvement they had at Stanford in year 2 with Luck. I know it is a different level of play, but even if the 49ers offense shows half the improvement that Stanford O showed we are in business.
Was wondering if any of our die hard North Bay Niner Fans are going to the MN Vikings game? Would love to tailgate with some of our locals..
Getting ready to head home and watch Donte Whitner knock Pierre Thomas out! That hit never gets old!!!
Jordan, you got that right. I still have the game sitting on my dvr and the audio of the game winning td on my phone. One of the greatest endings to a game I’ve ever watched.
Sean
Can’t wait til Sunday!
booomshakalakalaka!
DS do you work for Sporting News.
http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-09-04/2012-nfl-predictions-super-bowl-pick-san-francisco-49ers-houston-texans-green?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl3%7Csec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D201057
Other than the Niners winning, I don’t agree with much else. Don’t know why you thought of me here.
Grant – Thanks for not following through with that promise.
Whoa there – I did e-mail him and I’m awaiting his response.
Grant – I apologize for my lack of patience.
The blog master said he could expand the trending topics box from 5 to 10. He’ll do it soon.
That’ll help some.
Thanks Grant
There you go Crab15/FDM!
Thanks Grant!
Though we still need the names next to the posts. Is that possible Grant?
Grant – Thanks!
Good to hear Grant.
Grant you have to excuse Crabs right now, his mind is on a barbecue with his new ladies he is thinking with the wrong head. Sorry Crabs couldnt help myself. : )
under – You got that right you jokester. :-)
Hey Crab,
Regarding your request, what is the upside? Being able to selectively look at some comments/authors while not having to read them all?
Hofe – Under the heading “trending topics” we can only preview the last 5 posts listed in here, I thought it would be better to increase that amount to 10 or more and have all of the posters names visible (just like the most recent post is).
The upside: It can help us all cut down on time searching for replies and preview more posts etc.
When I enter this blog, the first place I look is at the most recent post and then I check the most recent ones under “trending topics.”
Many of us have to step away from the blog then return throughout the day and it would be nice to see the last 10-15 posts (with the names), rather than just five.
I’m ok with scrapping the idea if nobody thinks it would improve the blog.
Hofe – Disregard my last post, it’s a done deal. :-)
Crab, got it. Yes I agree, if you list the last 10 comments, having the names attached definitely helps.
Crabtree shouldnt care who covers him–the key to the game is to run the ball —–they cant score if we got the ball and using the timeclock. Randy moss should take pressure off him but getting into a passing contest alex loses Ithink having sub-refs will be good for the forty niners—-everyone knows in the leauge they get all the calls in green-bay if its a close game.
dr. dave – I agree, the replacement refs are not conditioned to be “Lambeau homers” YET.
Hofefully they will call a fair game and try to impress Roger Goodell, rather than be intimidated by the cheeseheads.
JH will blow a gasket if the refs have any phantom calls or don’t call it straight. The NFL is better than this and they need to get the experienced refs back on the field now. Let’s see how well the sub refs do tonight on a major stage with RGs hometown favorites. This may be the year of the blown call controversy in the NFL if RG doesn’t get this done.
You have to beat the good teams to be a good team. You have to win road games to be a good team. The table is set.
By the way; football tonight. And its got to be good; either way some team I don’t like loses! I respect Eli & Coughlin and their DL, but I don’t have to like them. And Cowboys? Seriously?
Brotha, it will be difficult to watch these two teams tonight because one team will win. The good news is the season is on!
Hofer,
The season is here!!! The only problem is having to wait until Sunday to watch the main event. I feel like going Terry Tate on someone.
Terry Tate. Good stuff. lol
Doesn’t matter who is covering him. Crabtree will have six catches for 74 yards and a touchdown.
Congrats to Coach Harbaugh for the birth of his new son born on 4-9 2012
That is good news. Glad nothing went wrong during the birth.
Children are always a blessing, congratulations to coach Harbaugh.
Children are always a blessing
Jose and Kitty Menendez beg to differ.
WOW Claude! Think you kind of jumped the tracks with this one, but with my sick sense of humor it still got a chuckle.
@ Jack:
Too soon?
I tend to agree with George Bernard Shaw:
Life does not cease to be funny when people die any more than it ceases to be serious when people laugh.
… and Mark Twain:
Humor is tragedy plus time.”
… and Stephen Hawking:
Life would be tragic if it weren’t funny.
it will be very interesting to see if harbaugh uses ck in the option package. i would like to see him pull it out a couple of time especially in the red zone.
OC, it would be very Tebowish and I believe the NYJ will do so with their QBs. The Wildcat quickly became a short lived farce by removing a QB to run that formation. I’ve never seen a playoff team rotate QBs. Not a good sign if they resort to gimmicks in the RZ!
Just a feeling, but a good moment to use the CK package is right after a turnover. Also be a nice change-up to run a shotgun no huddle with CK, and a shotgun no huddle with Alex the following series. Just to mess with defenses heads.
For what it’s worth, Chris Mortensen and Dan Patrick both predicted Niners vs Texans in Super Bowl.
Crab, news we should all be happy with just before the GB game. Now lets go!!!!!
Hofe – Are you saying jinx?
BTW, how do you like the new blog format?
Crab, I like the new format.
I still see Baltimore as the best in the AFC. They were screwed out of the Super Bowl last year with one of the worst calls in playoff history. They, like us, have a fire raging inside about that.
They didn’t get screwed. The receiver got stripped before the refs called the play a TD. He didn’t control the ball. They lost like we did. Nobody got screwed.
@hofer if you are talking about a regular qb rotation i agree with you. i would like to see them use it maybe twice a game max. it would force opposing teams to prepare for it which should help the base o and if smiths play in the red zone is like last yr i think we might need to changeup but if his red zone play reverts to the 2010 level then we should use no huddle option package at the begining of a couple of drives
Grant, any word on Mario Manningham? Is he back at practice? His frame of mind? I have not heard anything. His lass twitter is nothing but question marks (posted right around the time Moss was named as starter).
Yeah, I’m getting a bit concerned as well.
I can’t find anything new on him. Not even sure if Mario has returned to the bay area after his grandfather’s funeral.
If he misses too many practices before the big game and Ginn’s ankle is still iffy, Jenkins could suit up Sunday.
The press has been all about Moss, with some focus on Jenkins and Williams. Wondering if Mario’s feeling lost in the shuffle.
Manningham has returned – I saw him in the locker room yesterday.
MM news is hard to come by. Nobody talks about him.
Grant
What is MM role? Do you think JH/AS/MM know?
He’s listed as the third receiver, but I think he’ll end up playing more snaps than Moss will this season.
Grant: Thanks for the info. Great news.
23Jordan: I haven’t thought about the chemistry thing. It might be the Vernon-Crabtree-Walker show the first few weeks until things settle in.
I heard the 49ers love Manningham’s clutch play abilities. They think he can have a big upside (even as a veteran) with more consistent play.
Brodie
I really want to see KH get some balls thrown his way. He looks bigger/more confident out there. With RM (chem issues or not) VD running deep, the RB will have space to run free.
DS94everXev: Yup. I have KH pegged as one of my surprise players with year. He can run inside, outside, catch and pick up the blitz.
Imagine a single back formation with Vernon at TE, Moss, Crabtree, and Manningham (Jenkins, Williams, Ginn) . Hunter at RB. Talk about firepower! Too much speed for defenses to stack 8 in the box. They can run out of that formation, play action pass with KH staying in to block, dribble out KH in the flat, put KH in motion and more.
It’s going to be a fun year.
Yeah
I’ve had a lot of fun thinking of all the mis-matches we will bring this year. Our passing OL stands up so that VD can go out, and not stay in to block, we will be a nightmare to defend!
I just heard on KNBR that Moss may get limited reps in the game because he doesn’t have much chemistry with Alex Smith.
That only chemistry they need is in the red zone. The 9ers proved last year they can move the chains between the 20s. Now with the additional talent, they will be better. GB here we come!!
Let me guess, has to be Alex’s fault or just another one of your lies 23 welcher.
Aren’t you tired kid? Grow up man. You must be barely old enough to use the computer without consent.
*the only chemistry*
Could it be that a 35 yearsold player attempting a comeback after a year removed from competitive sports has issues altogether?
RM (with TB throwing to him) had 14 TDs in red zone in 2007. He knows how to use his body for positioning and he’s always fought for the ball. If they can get half that amount from the RM/AS connection, that would be a success along with all of the other talent that was added that will contribute as well. Good times.
Some interesting articles from Bob McGuinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel if you want to get some perspective from the GB side:
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packfoe05-t66o0hu-168564956.html
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/a-packers-recession-may-be-ahead-u96lk0k-168562956.html