The 49ers play the Giants at Candlestick on Sunday. In the meantime, I’ll break down one key matchup a day.
CB Carlos Rogers vs. WR Victor Cruz
When the 49ers and Giants played last season, Rogers covered Cruz on almost every pass play. That’s because the Giants like to line up Cruz in the slot in three-wide receiver formations and the 49ers counter with their Nickel defense, in which Carlos Rogers plays man-to-man coverage at the nickelback position.
Last season, Cruz caught 16 catches for 226 yards against the 49ers. Rogers couldn’t keep up with him.
Until the second half of the NFC Championship game. Rogers finally figured out how to read Cruz’s breaks and limited the Pro Bowl receiver to just two catches.
Will Cruz adjust to Rogers’ adjustments? We’ll see. We know Cruz is off to a good start this season, catching 5 TD passes through 5 games.
And we also know Rogers is off to a slow start this season. He’s been beaten over a dozen times in man-to-man coverage.
Cruz leads the NFL with 10 third-down catches for first downs. He is Eli Manning’s favorite third-down target.
The 49ers defense cannot allow the Giants offense to convert a lot of third downs, to put together multiple drives of more than 80 yards and eat up the clock like the Vikings did in Week 3.
It’s imperative that Carlos Rogers holds his own in this very tough matchup.
Advantage: Giants
49ers RSS feed
Loading ...
Grant – I typically enjoy reading your posts, however, this post falls under the “no s***, Sherlock” catagory. Of course Carlos Rogers is going to be challenged by VC; all cb’s in the NFL are challenged by VC. Please tell me (us) something we don’t already know.
Cruz caught 3 TD passes last week against the Cleave-land Browns. The Giants kept the Browns defense off balance all game long with a balanced attack (243 yards rushing and 259 yards passing). Most of the Giants big passing plays came from their 3 WR sets. Although Cruz had the 3 TDs, rookie Rueben Randle had 6 receptions for 82 yards (13.7 avg).
On the flip side, the Browns were able to put up decent numbers on the Giants D – both passing and rushing (8.3 yards per catch and 4.8 yards per carry).
Next week, I expect the Giants to struggle in establishing the run against the Niners. That will make them one dimensional, but it will also play to a strength of their’s – the 3WR sets. As it did in the NFCCG, the keys will be the play of the secondary and the extend of QB pressure applied on Manning.
Side note: Rueben Randle was one of the WRs the Niners passed on during last year’s draft.
The Giants will probably stick with the run, and here’s why:
They need Dashon Goldson running up to the line of scrimmage. When the defense knows a pass is coming, he plays deep and gives Tarell Brown help over the top. Eli Manning will have to dink and dunk all day if his running game doesn’t work.
“Eli Manning will have to dink and dunk all day if his running game doesn’t work.” That is what Manning does, and he does it with great efficiency.
He throws intermediate passes all the time. He averages 8 yards per attempt.
By “dink and dunk” I was referring to short passes.
Through the first 4 games Manning threw 160 passes, 103 of those were thrown under 10 yards.
(The stats from yesterday are not yet included in his split stats)
So 57 were longer than 10 yards. That’s about one in three passes.
I’m saying he’ll have to throw shorter at an even higher rate than he has this season if the Giants can’t establish the run.
He does that a lot anyway, and did it last year in both of the matchups. Short, short, then over the top. This is going to be a very fun game to watch unfold, easily their toughest matchup of the year so far.
I am very skeptical that the giants will have success on the ground. I hope they stick with it, but I doubt it. Manning will throw over 40 passes. 49ers will use a ton of nickel coverage.
I know that last year’s NFC championship game was the big one, but I don’t see much talk about how the Niners beat the Giants in their regular season meeting. How did Carlos Rogers do against Victor Cruz in that game? It might be similar to the championship game, but I’d be curious to see.
Cruz had 11 targets, caught 6 for 84 yds, 0 tds. The field was dry compared to that NFCCG.
I understand what you trying to do with the matchups, but it is difficult to focus on just one matchup in football.
The Niners will need to change up coverage on Eli; show him things he has not seen before from the Defense; double cover receivers at time, show him different coverages he is not prepared for and probably most importantly pressure him. If you let Eli sit back in the pocket he will rip you apart.
Of course if we can run the ball, covert 3th downs and keep Eli on the bench that will help a lot too.
I agree here. I also think the pass rush is going to have to come alive for SF. You can’t let Eli Manning 5 to 7 seconds to find an open receiver or pick apart the Defense.
It will be a great game to watch.
Carlos Rogers has struggled mostly in the last two games, which coincides with his ankle injury. He did have some issues with the Packers and the Lions where he was playing too aggressively and getting penalties(or should have gotten penalties) However, he is our cornerback with the quickest feet…. which is something that is NECESSARY against a player with the lateral quickness of Cruz. It will be nice to see how he does against Cruz this week. This really should be a good matchup, and thats if Hakeem Nicks is still out. If Nicks is back, and then they have Randle and Barden to move the chains, then that frees up Cruz to have even more depth in his routes, and I want to see how the Niners would step up to that.
Carlos and the defense will have their hands full with Cruz, no doubt. He’s the type of receiver the defense has trouble covering. That said, Patrick Willis vs Martellus Bennett is also another crucial matchup. Hidden on the depth chart behind Jason Witten last year in Dallas, this guy is an extremely athletic and tall TE. He has quickly become one of Eli’s favorite targets and should be a great matchup to watch.
Good call with Bennett. Along with a healthy Oline, Bennett has vastly improved the Giants in both run and pass blocking. I don’t think Eli has been sacked since week 3. Add in Bear Pascoe and a rapidly developing Pro Bowl caliber fullback in Hynoski and the run game had it’s best day this past week. Of course, you always need to look at the competition, so I will be very interested to see just how good the blocking will be against the Giants stiffest competition to date.
Cruz is quick and elusive off the line, a smart and savvy route-runner, and a beast at the point of attack. He will get his against anybody at this point of his career. But if he is slowed down, and Nicks is slowed or not in there, then the Giants have showed through the years, and especially this year, that Eli and Gilbride can make stars out just about anyone in receiver corps, even if it’s only for one week.
I Think It will come down to our front 7 and even more specificaly our front 4. If we can handle the run with just 7 then we can play our nickel like we did vs GB and DET and put DG over the top to help out on VC or whomever. In the 2nd half of NFCCG we used that strategy and like mentioned above he only had 2 catches. I know bradshaw had a monster game last week but i cant imagine him even getting half that production vs our D.
Another thing overlooked since that game is: the 9ers have improved (add RM MM BJ) while the giants have gotten worse (lost both their TE, BJ MM) When u consider that Nicks is hurt theyre left with a WR core of Barden Hixon and Randle (not good enough to beat out domenic hixon and ramsees barden journeyman jags at the position)
@Nick
Randle would occupy the same spot AJ Jenkins does had we drafted him. No doubt he has a higher floor than ajj but jenkins arguably has a higher upside
I like the outlook but never underestimate the heart of a champion. This game comes down to coaching in my opinion. Coughlin will have these guys ready to play and he is one of he best in the league.
I still like our chances but it will once again come down to who makes the last mistake.
Niners 13
GMen 10
Dang, Prime. If it ends up 13-10 I’ll probably have a heart attack, LOL!
I cant decide whats more satisfying? To roll and know that ur good halfway through the 3rd or sit there on pins and needles hoping to pull it off by the skin of ur teeth. I have an uneasy feeling anytime we have to play elite D teams because then every litlle mistake is magnified.
SF 17
NY 13