On Monday, Jim Harbaugh said Randy Moss will have his “big-catch day” soon, meaning Moss will catch a lot of passes.
Here’s my question to you: How soon?
Do you expect him to catch about eight passes and a touchdown against the Giants? Or do you think he’ll continue to get one target per game and play fewer snaps than Kyle Williams?
I think the latter will happen. I think Moss’ big-catch days are behind him. The Niners are using him as a decoy, they have not developed him as a red-zone threat and there are three wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart – Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham and Kyle Williams.
I think the notion of Moss having another big-catch day is another decoy. How about you?
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His big day will come when teams figure he’s just a decoy and don’t bite on his deep routes to stick to the underneath routes.
49ers have used that tactic with success quite a bit, once a team “wises up” and starts dropping off him, he’s going to get his big game (which may only be 2-3 catches for 80+ yards and a touchdown).
You pretty much summed up the facts.
+1
I think it will depend on how the opposing team plays. Right now Moss is still drawing the safety every time he goes deep (I believe – you have better knowledge of this being at games, and if you have all22). In the meantime, Alex Smith is destroying defenses in the intermediate game, and the running game is on an historic pace. How long will defenses keep committing 2 defenders to the so-far unimpressive Moss while they get battered in other facets of the game?
Once they stop sending safety help, I think Harbaugh and Alex will take their shots, and the defense will have to adjust again, and the offense will go back to picking apart the D.
I don’t think there’s a coaching staff in the league that plays the game like a chess match more than Harbaugh and Co do. I believe Moss will have some big plays, but the opposing teams will dictate when and how often.
Give Trent Baalke some props too…he has constructed a team that has so many options that the opposing D is forced to pick their poison and G-Ro and JH can adjust on the fly if they encounter something different. Moss will get his chance at some point.
Absolutely. Moss also deserves credit for his attitude, as does Harbaugh for helping that attitude to exist.
Moss seems okay with his role, and has been a very good and willing blocker. Past personality traits be darned, it’s impressive for ANY hall-of-fame talent to be willing to take a small role to fit into part of something bigger. Harbaugh and Moss have to both know that his day will come. He’ll be ready for it.
I agree that his big play days are behind him, however I disagree on that they aren’t using him as a Red Zone threat. The 49ers first Red Zone TD came on a pass to Moss, he helped set up a TD in week 2 against Detroit with a PI call, and was targeted in the Red Zone by Smith again in Minnesota.
That is his role on this team, decoy to help open up the other playmakers, and be a target in the Red Zone due to his size. My guess for this week is 2 catches, 24 yards and 1 TD.
I agree too about the red zone but it sure would have been nice to see them use him on their 1st drive inside the red zone against the Bills instead of the 3 straight runs then FG.
I see it the same way Jack. They have looked for him in the redzone. What they aren’t doing is forcing deepballs to him when he has the CB playing way off the LOS with a Safety shaded over to his side.
He’s not the same Moss as a few years ago, but he’s playing his part which right now is to clear out the middle of the field and catch the 10 yard outs and digs that are there when the CB is playing him so conservatively. I don’t see a big day coming for Moss, but I think he’ll have a few where he catches 3-4 passes and scores a few more TD’s in redzone situations.
One other thing to note, the Niners are at 40% on 3rd down conversions. The things they needed to improve on most – 3rd down and redzone – they have. So far so good.
I predicted that RM would score 8 RZ tds this year. If they worked on plays with RM’s height advantage and savvy, it could be very productive. They need more creativity beyond the run centric RZ the last few weeks albeit the MM move and td was nice.
I think it would be very foolish to see Moss just as a “decoy”
He might never have a 7-10 Catch Day but he very well could have a Multiple TD Day that’s for sure. When you least expect it, then it happens. What will you say then?
Moss should already have one more TD and a couple more big catches. inches away.
tough to come in for just 25 plays and see double and triple teams. opposing defenses are famous for preparing for whatever really threatens to score, ….and so they until they stop doubling and tripling Moss, the 49ers will just fun for 200 a game and Crabtree and Manningham will go to the probowl.
this is the type of offense Alex Smith excels at. reliable running attack and short to intermediate passing game.
what really is secretly scaring the daylights out of oppossing DC’s is when they see Kaepernick. they go jumbo with Moss the lone WR, and run the zone read, but with Moss out there, no way the safety can make a play, ’cause Kaepernick has a big arm and is much more accurate than people realize.
this team is loaded, motivated and the City of San Fran is hosting two big ones Sunday. wow.
Harbaugh IMO made the statement for Moss’s benefit. I think Moss is getting frustrated at the lack of attention he is getting from AS.
I don’t see the long pass coming from Smith to Moss at all this season. Unless we face more defenses like Buffalo’s. Smith is still Smith when it comes to sitting in the pocket against a tough defense. He won’t let a vertical route develop, he will bail and take the safe pass. This is not a knock on Smith, it’s just who he is IMO. Very curious to see how he follows last week up with this game against the GMen.
If the pass protection holds up, Smith will have the opportunity to look downfield. These first 5 weeks, the Niners have played like one of, if not the best, O-line in the league.. save Staley(4.5 sacks).
@ bay:
How exactly would Harbaugh’s statement ease Moss’s alleged frustration if, as you predict, Smith doesn’t throw a long pass to Moss all season? I would think that such a promise going unfulfilled would only deepen such frustration.
RM isn’t the future so any frustration is very short lived. RM knows this is the last chance for a SB in a very distinguished career. I don’t think the concern is worth the worry. They have AJJ waiting in the wings.
Bay,
If anything, Moss would be frustrated at his lack of playing time. He is seeing on average about 20 plays a game. They don’t go to him with the deep ball because defenses are taking it away. If you force it you put yourself in a tough position.
The difference between last week and some others was the amount of time Smith had in the pocket. He can’t stay in there and throw a deep ball if he doesn’t have the time. Last week he did and more and more the Oline is starting to dominate in both running and pass protection. We may see more of the deeper passing you crave if that holds up.
What J and Brady said.
Regardless of how they interpret Harbaugh’s statement, future opponents are in a tough, damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t position.
Do they take his statement about Moss at face value and continue to double Moss? If so, then the 49ers will continue to throw underneath and, hopefully, pick them apart.
Or, do they view Harbaugh’s statement as a decoy, and stop giving so much attention to Moss? If so, then the deep shots to Moss will happen and more than likely will result in TDs. Until the defenses go back to devoting excessive resources to Moss.
As it’s already been said, teams have been keeping a safety over the top of Moss, until someone else demands the fear Moss has put into defenses, he’ll continue to get that treatment. As it’s been mentioned, Alex Smith will take his shots with Moss when he gets the opportunity, Moss one-on-one w/ any CB is advantage Niners!
During the Bills’ game, when DT Kyle Williams jumped off sides Alex Smith took the snap and immediately looked for Moss, who was on the flanker(top of the screen) on that play. Smith knew he had a ‘free play’, I believe he was going to fling it up and let Randy Moss make a play with double/triple coverage.
As much as most fans hate the ‘jumbo’ stuff, when the Niners light with their jumbo, Moss is usually the only WR on the field. One of these games, the Niners are going to playaction hard off, perhaps run Moss on a post across the field and let Smith fling it downfield.
Some coach is going to test Randy and pull the Safety, that’s going to be the game Randy Moss has a HUGE day!
@ six-ace-deuce:
I think Moss is the lone WR in the big packages precisely because he commands the attention of two DBs. That leaves the 49ers with one fewer defender to block. Moss is proving valuable to the offense despite the low number of passes thrown his way.
Good point. They’ve already shown they will pass out of the formation with the throw to Davis last week. Just more tools in the toolbox that DC’s around the league have to focus on. We are seeing more and more wrinkles being unveiled every week, and it’s fun to watch.
It’s fun to see that! They go Jumbo, and sometime’s D’s will only think run. I don’t want to be able to predict the play from watching it on TV, and I’m sure JH and GR will stay unpredictable from here forward.
The Giants have a good DL, but keep them off balance, and it’s anyone’s game.
Grant, I don’t know when the opportunity will present itself, so I’d like to point out now, while Alex Smith sits atop the QB ratings in the NFL after five weeks, that you made the strong case to dump Smith and pick up Manning because Smith displayed the best he was ever gonna be against the Saints and he can’t convert third downs, etc. It would appear he has a little more upside than you gave him credit for. Perhaps Andrew Luck’s phenomenal collegiate stature was due, in part, to … Jim Harbaugh? Maybe Alex Smith can be an elite Pro Bowl QB under … Jim Harbaugh? Like I said, doesn’t really fit the topic of your blog, but I didn’t know when you were going to post that eating crow piece.
The 49ers are able to use Moss as a decoy because teams are still giving cb’s help over the top on him. Eventually teams will not give their cb’s help over the top and that is when i think moss might have a big game. i believe he can still punish a team that single covers him, especially if he is covered by a 3rd or 4th cb.
Why would Grant have to post a blog eating crow over stating they should go and get Manning? Many people, including myself saw that as a no brainer and it was, provided they could sign him to a reasonable deal, which turned out to not be the case. Smith is having a good season so far, but there was nothing wrong with trying to sign a HOF caliber vet who was available on the market. You have to look at every possible avenue you have to make your team better and they did. Nothing to apologize for at all imo.
Seems like another great decision by the organization or a bad decision by Manning to not take less and be on a championship team. I guess things happen for a reason.
Prime,
So far so good, but I see nothing wrong with them kicking the tires on Manning in the offseason. I would have questioned their desire to improve every position if they hadn’t.
Grant has been no promoter of Alex Smith. That’s the crow to be eaten. In making the case to get Manning, Grant based his case on the assumption that Smith had no further upside. That assumption appears to be incorrect. I don’t want an apology. His job is to take a stance and prompt discussion. I want an acknowledgment from the most anti-Smith media guy that Smith is playing pretty freankin’ good. He is becoming the elite QB that everyone chuckled at last year when Harbaugh suggested it.
I agree Rocket and I was baffled that more teams didn’t work him out. The reason I think more teams didn’t was because they knew it would take a huge commitment salary cap wise to even begin negotiations. Denver had the most amount of space and were willing to let Manning run his own offense.
If those were non factors, pretty sure he picks the Niners and they chose him.
BSofSF the upside part and reaching his ceiling is a comment that comes from not understanding the value of coaching, continuity and surrounding talent that every QB needs. A lot of fans think that if your talented, that alone should carry you and the organization to championship levels.
Well as we are witnessing, all those things have come to fruition and the results are evident.
Nothing wrong being wrong but I agree blanket statements make you look ignorant when the results show otherwise.
What Harbaugh is saying is that Alex will
continue to take what the defense gives him. If the deep ball is there to Moss without 3 defenders on him, Alex will take it.
It does not make sense to force a particular play to a player when the coverage is there and there are better options underneath or in the run game.
Until teams stop bracketing Moss, why force it like CK did and potentially end up with a turnover? Just take what the defense gives you and sustain those long, grind it out drives and when it’s time to go over top, tale the shot.
Roman deserves a lot of credit for getting everyone on offense involved. I’m sure the game plan one week and what the opponent does will determine if Moss gets his big catch.
I think you nailed it. The Niners offense is multi-faceted and will call whatever plays that the defense will “give” them. They are not going to go deep to please Moss or some fans.
I’d think that Moss understands the situation. He’s lucky to be playing for the Niners this season and not for the Saints or the Jets.
On a related note, Bucky Brooks has an interesting dissection of the some the key Niner plays from last Sunday:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000078915/article/alex-smith-frank-gore-powering-49ers-dynamic-offensive-attack
@ Mood_Indigo:
I like articles, like Brooks’, that provide still shots to illustrate what is being talked about.
I just wish he wouldn’t refer to an end around as a reverse. It kills me how many writers and announcers screw that up. Same thing with reverses and double reverses.
Claude,
Check out my latest post, a wrap up of the Bills game.
http://ninerchatter.blogspot.com/2012/10/film-study-bills-in-review.html
I took Hofers advice and went with the top 5 plays from the game, along with the pictures from the all 22 Views.
Hope you find it interesting. Working on another one for tomorrow on the Giants O.
@ Jack:
Another excellent post. You used the screen shots well. Keep ‘em coming.
Re: The 1st Q run play you diagram. As you demonstrate, from the way the blockers position themselves relative to the defenders they are blocking, it is obvious the play was designed to go to the right after a counter step to the left by Gore. Yet, Solomon Wilcots, the CBS analyst, told us that the play was designed to go left, but because the Bills filled the hole, Gore had to cut to the right and make something out of nothing. I fell out of my chair when he said that.
Jack,
Nice breakdown. I liked that touch pass to VD too. That was tremendous.
Thanks Claude/Nick,
Wilcots was horrible on Sunday. That was one instance and then another was on the pass McDonald tipped that Johnson still caught and he credits J Smith with the tip. Would rather listen to the radio call, but the delay is so bad, especially when watching on satellite.
@ Jack:
another was on the pass McDonald tipped that Johnson still caught and he credits J Smith with the tip.
That one’s understandable. Ray McDonald and Justin Smith are practically twins.
Wilcots is another guys who confuses reverses and double reverses.
@ Jack:
The good news is that Fox is sending a better crew to do Sunday’s game: Thom Brennaman and Troy Aikman. Thank God for the baseball playoffs. They rid football fans of Joe Buck for a couple of weeks.
Claude,
Too bad Aikman doesn’t do baseball as well. : )
@Prime
“What Harbaugh is saying is that Alex will
continue to take what the defense gives him. ”
That is what the WCO depends on. Smart play by the QB. And some smart play-calling to ensure the defense is forced into giving quite a bit quite often. That link mood has kinda indicates that.
If you have a gun-slinger back there, it fails more than not.
Let’s be realistic here. RM didn’t come to the 9ers after a big season with N.E. He didn’t play last year and not too many teams were calling him based on his 2010 performance. It’s most likely his last year. I’d like to see him have a big day, but not at the expense of forcing the ball or a turnover. There is now a lot of talent on this 9er offense. It’s difficult to spread it around, but it’s been happening the last couple of games. If RM has a good day, then great. I’m more concerned about keeping MC, MM, VD, KW, and DW productive. Good times.
Hof based on what the coaches have said, playing time and touches is earned in practice and the level of compete displayed. A couple times these past games I have seen Moss catch the ball and then crumble to the ground to avoid contact. If thats to avoid further injury to an existing injury, fine, but if not, that’s not impressing anyone for more balls.
Prime,
It seems to me that they are winning without requiring much from RM. Who cares if he has a 100+ yd game? Would it be nice? Yes. But not necessary if the 9ers keep winning. As I mentioned, the concern isn’t worth the worry. I’d rather see AJJ get activated and have a 100+ yd game. He is the future…
I agree Hof. Maybe the production for Moss is not happening on the field but he is contributing in other ways. We keep hearing about how great he is in the meeting rooms and with the younger WR. Maybe he is thinking of a coaching career down the road.
Does not sound like the old Moss but maybe at age 35 he realizes where he is at and wants to make a
difference in other ways.
Here’s my question back at everyone,
Everyone is assuming that when Moss is on the field, he’s being given lots of defensive attention, drawing a corner and a safety, etc.
I don’t know if he is or not, I don’t have a good view from my tv/computer. If he is though, why the HE”double hockey sticks” is he not on the field for more plays?? It seems to me that if I have a receiver that’s routinely drawing extra attention from defences, I put him in there and he runs streak after streak, taking 2 defenders with him, and attacking everywhere else. What gives?
Agus…. i went to the game this past weekend sat in the upper deck and yes teams are still cheating a safety towards moss’s side.
And they always will. No team/Defense wants to give up a TD to RM if he is single covered. The press will be saying “You crazy! Can’t single RM!” RM main role is to be a magnet taking all the defenders in his zone towards him. Leaving the space open for MC/MM/etc to take an intermediate pass from AS. It’s working. RM’s duty has been fulfilled.
Angus,
My guess is they feel Manningham and Crabtree are better options to have out there on a consistent basis and so far they’ve been right. Moss isn’t taking 2 defenders with him all the time; he’s just being played with soft coverage by teams not allowing him to beat them deep. They also are limiting his snaps to keep him fresh and because he’s not much of a blocker when they run the ball.
Can’t argue with that. Crabtree I expected to do well, I was a sceptic about Manningham, but the last 3 games he’s really played well. Our receiving corps has quickly gone from a weakness to a, well, maybe not a strength, but certainly not a weakness.
I think towards the end of the season, like the last 3 games, they will start throwing his way a lot. Only to make our offense that much more difficult to prepare for in the playoffs
Doesnt matter if Moss has a break out game or not. Teams will always have to account for him. That throw from Kap to Moss in the endzone saw three defensive men around him. Thats his job, attract defensive backs. That will always mean someone should be open or mismatchs should occur. Teams are going to have there handful defending the offense. When your running 195 yards a game means defenses are still going to have to play tight to prevent the run.
I agree with you Grant. He is a bag of tricks for GRO to use in the playoffs. That is when he will be unleashed!!!!
He said that, but remember, also a dig at those expecting the “big day”.
“Just a matter of time before he gets a big-catch day that everybody seems to only pin their evaluation on.”
My opinion is that Moss *doesn’t* get that big day. It sounds like Harbaugh and Moss (if Harbaugh is speaking for him) are more than happy to keep having him do the excellent things he currently is doing.
nice to see the comments on this subject. Moss is getting doubled with the safety and historically, the great safeties stop the run. so Moss occupying the S is huge. then in the passing game, I’ve seen at least a couple of big gains, one a TD to Davis that was under space cleared by Moss taking two DB’s with him, on one play down the right sideline, Moss took three guys with him and he didn’t even have to throw a block.
the big question is: when will the defenses call Harbaugh’s bluff and single up Moss exclusively.
then we will see what we will see.
Moss is coming off the line with a special quickness and is very focused. I am waiting for the single coverage game; and that comment about SF going to the Jumbo with Moss the lone WR,…that’s a flea flicker waiting to happen. just ask Tom Brady.