Earlier this season, Alex Smith said taking a sack is “not the end of the world.”
I wrote a follow-up blog explaining that on every series in which an NFL offense allows a sack, it has just a 14 percent chance of scoring a touchdown.
Through the first nine games of the season, the 49ers offense has taken a sack on 28 drives, and scored a touchdown on just four of those drives – exactly 14 percent.
One more thing – the 49ers offense has allowed 29 sacks and the defense has garnered 17 sacks. That’s a negative-12 sack differential. Every Super Bowl champion over the last 10 years has had a positive sack differential.
Could sacks be the 49ers Achilles heel?
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Remember that topic, thanks for following up on it.
The sacks will be one reason.
Statistics are for losers I know, but sack differential works the same way as turnover differential. Take a team’s total number of sacks and subtract the amount of sacks surrendered. I’m a big fan of sack differential because of everything the number encompasses. From offensive line play to the ability to rush the passer to the quarterback’s skills in evading the rush and getting rid of the football, sack differential takes several integral elements of the game and combines them to spit out one nice, clean little number.
We’ll leave you with this: Teams that rank in the top-10 in sack differential, turnover differential, yards per play, and do not rank in the bottom-10 in any of our three categories are a combined 27-15 straight-up (.643) and 25-16-1 ATS (.609) this season.
Apply the same rules to teams in the bottom-10 and you get a combined straight-up record of 23-42 (.354) and a 26-37-2 mark against the spread (.413).
That’s got to mean something.
Last years sack differential I bet is much worse than this years. More important is how much time the QB has and his Int’s following pressure.
Sacks are something to take note of. Certainly more than yards. But nothing comes close to Turnovers. Turnovers are like the game managing part of a QB. 70% of their job. We finally took the lead because of a TO. The difference between a sack and a TO is the drive doesn’t necessarily come to an end. With a TO it does with 100% certainty.
*…come to an end with a sack*
It’s worse this year DS. They are on pace to give up about the same number of sacks as last season, and the defense is behind pace in sacks.
The 49ers sack differential was -2 last season. It’s -12 this season.
The Texans are +14.
If that is so Jack, then AS is doing much better taking those sacks. The teams record hasn’t dropped a ton, leaving me to conclude sacks mean little (at least for this team).
Maybe that stat (sack differential) is more important to teams that rely on their passing game almost exclusively (NE, NY) and that would make sense. But to a team like ours who doesn’t live and die by the pass, sacks are less relevant. And since most of the NFL is pass-happy, this stat gives the illusion of being vital to all teams.
That, statistically and scientifically is called a false positive. This stat would appear to be one. If not, explain our record. You can’t.
DS,
The team’s record is not as good this year through 9 games. Last year they didn’t lose their 2nd game until Thanksgiving night.
I said nearly as good. We win Monday Night, we’ll have the same number of losses(2) as we had last year at Thanksgiving. That is pretty close. And AS has been better this year.
DS,
No they won’t. Loss number 2 didn’t come until the 11th game last season. Monday night is only game 10. Even with a win they will be 2 wins behind last years team. The sack differential is one good explanation why.
The team’s record is not as good this year through 9 games. Last year they didn’t lose their 2nd game until Thanksgiving night.
The big reason for that has been because both our schedule and division have been tougher Jack.
They haven’t lost in the division yet. The difference is they beat the Giants in the regular season last year.
Jack
Make up your mind. You said Thanksgiving. Well, next week is Thanksgiving week. We win our 1 game, and we’ll have the same number of losses as Thanksgiving last year.
Now you’re going by week/game number.
And the stat is really a negative on the Defense then. Which as you can see has been the focus of nearly every post.
That was funny. :- )
This whole blog has focused on AS. Not the defense.
TO’s are WAY down as well for the D. That has more impact than sacks. I’m betting the drop in TO’s by the D is more responsible for the lower record than the sacks are. And by a substantial margin.
When our D forced multiple TO’s last year, it was normal. This year it hasn’t happened often.
No they haven’t, but a tougher division despite not losing against it yet can make a difference. From what I’ve seen this season, our team has been wearing down quicker.
” And the stat is really a negative on the Defense then”
It’s a negative on both sides. It shows the defense has dropped off, while the sacks on offense remains an issue.
As for Smith’s role in the sacks, through the first 8 games he had been sacked 22 times (24 total for the offense), and according to pro football focus Smith was responsible for 7, nearly 1/3.
The defense on the other hand has received minimal contributions from the DL with sacks this year compared to last. Only Aldon and Brooks are getting home.
Both JH and BW have stated that sacks are not worse than turnovers. Not a big deal here. It’s more that the defense hasn’t gotten the clutch big 4th qtr sack when needed. If they keep winning, neither is highlighted or as important.
Of course, turnovers are the most important statistic. Teams that win the turnover battle win the game 87 percent of the time.
I’m just pointing out other important ones, too.
Grant,
I’m not discounting your blog article or the metrics, it’s just that with a record of 6-2-1, the sack differential is not that important. The differential as stated isn’t indicative of the 9ers record. It’s more important that with a lead in the 4th qtr, the defense can make a play to stop the opponents offense. That can be a sack or turnover. That is much more important going forward.
I see what you’re saying.
I’m citing the sack differential only because the last 10 Super Bowl champions have had a positive one.
The 2000 Ravens and 2001 Patriots both had negative sack differentials. The 2001 Patriots were -7 and the 2000 Ravens were -12.
What are the important ones you think of besides sacks Grant?
The sack differential and lack of turnovers from the defense are both good indicators as to why the team is not as good so far this year as last.
From a metrics point yes, but from the W/L record no.
Other teams have a better turnover and sack ratio yet they have more than two loses. The 9ers have been lucky the record has not suffered because of these metrics so far.
There was a quote from Jim Thorpe years ago. I believe that it went like this,”all we have to do is score more touchdowns than they do. So what about the defense?”
How many of those sacks were when the game was out of reach by either the Niners or their opponent?
I’m curious to know how many sacks came on third down because Alex held the ball too long. In those cases taking a sack on third down and punting “is not the end of the world” rather than forcing a throw and causing a turnover
What’s the percentage of tds scored on drives without taking a sack? The 14% is meaningless without a baseline.
Not so fast Grant. About a handfull of Niner’s sacks have been negated by penalties this year. Better o-line play and AS being more mindful will lead to fewer sacks on offense. I expect the Niners sack differential to improve as the season progresses.
Here are the remaining opponents and the number of they’ve given up so far this season:
Chicago 28 (28th)
Saints 16 (7th)
Rams 25 (27th)
Dolphins 21 (18th)
Patriots 15 (6th)
Seahawks 19 (15th)
Cardinals 41 (last)
Grant!
Why are you so negative toward Smith?
For entertainment, check out these delusional Chicago Bear fans thinking their team will beat the Niners:
http://www.bearsfansonline.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6495
I’m a huge boxing fan. Always have been. In boxing, the best managers bring their fighters up slowly. Hand pick opponents for their up and coming fighters. They pick opponents based on experience and style. Rarely will you see a good boxing manager stick their fighter in the ring against an opponent that he is not ready for. I want CK to get playing time this year. Ultimately it is what is going to win the the job permanently next year. However if I was his manager, I would not stick him in against the Chicago Bears.
Something else interesting I’d like to point out. I’ve read over and over that the worst long term concussion symptoms occur by forcing a concussed person back too quickly exposing them to more hits once again, too quickly. All the guys that supposedly LOVE Smith so much really don’t sound like they give a rats ass about Smith. Cause they all want him in there knowing he is concussed.
I’m reading between the lines but it really seems like this group doesn’t want CK on the field for fear that he is successful and accelerates the controversy that will be here next year. Even if it means risking further injury by getting back on the field too soon. Hmmmmmm.
Go bury your head back in the sand, and bring your boxing gloves with you!
Bay, if. Smith follows the protocol regarding concussions and is cleared to played, then he has done what needed to be done. There are different degrees of concussions. Some come from hitting your head on something, some from falling, some from an object hitting your head, and some from contact sports. I trust the doctors here Bay. He will only play if the doctors clear him, and from all indications, the concussion wasn’t severe enough to warrant Smith missing a game.
You also have clearly indicated that you want CK starting instead of Smith and are now going as far to say that Smith is rushing back too soon from an injury. Mike Nolan isn’t his coach so I highly doubt that is true. There are currently bigger problems on this team other than the QB position. Why not start focusing on them for a change?
Bay, that’s a great, great point….
My only concern is that your irrational hatred of all things Smith has led to sudden spikes of blood pressure, causing a unique phenomenon wherein you actually internally concuss yourself each time you bring him to mind. Out of concern for you, I suggest you cease posting inane comments, like the one you posted above here, until such time you’ve been cleared by 2 independent neurologists, after which, somebody who has no idea what they’re talking about says you’re not ready to come back.
Well played, Angus!
bay believes he can read Harbaugh’s mind. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that he also thinks he can read the mind of other commenters.
bay, let’s test your mind reading capabilities. I am thinking of a number between 1 and 100. See if you can read my mind and tell us what that number is.
94, has to be.
You haters are ridiculous. The guy is completing 70% of his passes at 8 ypa and you’re still calling for the backup.
You’ve distilled it to its essence.
After 7 years of excuses people are just tired of Alex. He may be doing well now but his history of ineptitude is still burned into our retinas.
Then maybe fans like you need to move on if you cannot see past what you said, doing well. Why torture yourself if its burning your eyes to watch him play and doing well enough?
clemons, here’s your time machine. Set it to 2005 and go there. 5 years later do the same thing. 5 years after that, repeat.
Now you can revel in Smith’s poor play forever. Happy now?
Some people were just tired of the losing. This season and last have me feeling a lot more refreshed. It used to be said that winning cures all, but some people are incurable.
@tkamb, RIGHT!? Silly to even be talking about it! All I want is for this team to win. We’ve weaknesses on this team, and right QB is NOT of them. Carlos Rogers (yes), Isaac Sopoaga (yes), 3rd down rushing defense (yes), special teams (YES). Certainly we want a lot from our offense, but when our defense gives up 24pts to the Rams at THE STICK….we’ve got bigger fish to fry.
Oh yeah, let’s blame everything and everyone except for AS and the offense.
That’s your problem Cal boy, always looking to place blame on something. The hate just fuels you, it’s in your subconciuosness, your jive turkey club is very sad!
Nick,
Do you think the offense was a big problem against the Rams?
Yes it was. Of course if the D holds the Rams to FG’s those first 2 drives, AS gets the lead and CK comes into a very different game.
The offense was a problem against the Rams, but the even bigger problems were on defense and special teams.
Agree with that MidWest.
Jack,
The offense was part of the problem. Certainly thd special teams and defense contributed to a lackluster performance. But, NinersRoc made it sound like the offense played a steller game.
They weren’t stellar, but they certainly the better of the three units against the Rams, no matter who the QB was.
I can’t wait for a healthy AS and a motivated defense and ST to play the Rams again at their house. They win by 10+.
+1 Hof
the sack thing has to do with the way the team is built and the philosophy behind it.
Nolan and later Singletary built a power running team that is supposed to pass off of play action. Which means the O linemen are better run blockers and not dancing bear pass blockers; they including the QB and Receivers work the passing game when they have the advantage of a strong running game. They don’t sit back and pass protect as their primary offensive strength, they couldn’t do as well in Brady’s Offense or Manning’s Colt’s Offense where they lead with their passing attack.
Now, Harbaugh and Roman have built a multi-faceted rushing attack that utilizes exotic heavy personnel and overloaded formations to gain advantages but the offensive philosophy is still the same which is to run to set up the pass.
This philosophy works fine when it’s 2nd and 5 and the Defense has to play honest. But when the Niners try to lead with their passing game or are in obvious passing situations due to down and distance or behind by more than a score and time is an issue, then the Niners have to lead with their pass game and it’s not their strong suit. So suddenly 2nd and 10 becomes 3rd and 10. And if the Defense is expecting pass, they just sit back and usually in zone coverage blanket the receivers and allow their linemen to beat the Niner’s O line. Smith won’t be patient and allow receivers to stretch zones so he can shred zone coverage. He gets flusttered and usually throws the ball underneath, throws it away or takes a sack. And sometimes the O line rally does just give up the sack all on it’s own…Smith may have happy feet and appear paranoid but he’s not paranoid if on almost every drive there’s an O lineman that loses his guy and hits Smith when he needs more than 3 seconds….of course all the other snaps on the drive where he gets flustered is another matter. But my point about Sacks is that the COACHING PHILOSOPHY IS BUILT ON A STRONG RUN GAME AND A ELITE DEFENSE. So taking a sack isn’t the end of the world to Smith and Harbaugh despite what the statistics say about successful drives. Not turning the ball over in a bad place on the field by taking a sack is better than a possible turnover to Harbaugh and Smith….and this makes sense if you expect your defense to shutdown your opponent. The problem of course is that this year the Defense hasn’t always been a shutdown defense. So either the Defense needs to go back to pitching near shutouts or the Offense needs to be more willing to be aggressive and risk more to score more (since you’re not pitching near shutouts anymore).
@Grant
Sacks are drive killers for sure. The problem I have with this analaysis is this. Does the team get a first down after the sack? If a first down is achieved then that sack has zero bearing on a TD drive. New set of downs and another ten years to go, everything is good. Grant I “think” your thoughts about performance on critical downs has more merit then sacks. I would like to see the comparisons of the POCD info from last year to the first nine games this year. I havnt done the work but it appears that the Niners are doing much better on POCD. What do you think?
Should read as
has zero bearing on a TD drive regardless of the outcome of the drive.
undercenter
What is POCD?
performance on critical downs.
35% on third downs. Up from last year’s dismal 28%. Still bottom-third in the NFL. Behind offenses such as the Dolphins, Jets and Chiefs.
Interesting idea. But how is a POCD different from non-POCD? I assume 3rd downs and red-zone plays all count. If so, we’re much better.
Grant
You wrote an article about what if the Niners got into the mid-30′s didn’t you? You said that would be good enough for this team to get over that hump (referencing the title game). If you did, you need to keep true to that.
I thought the defense would improve, not regress. I don’t think mid-30′s is going to cut it for this team.
Smith mostly throws short to Gore or Crabtree on third down. I think good defenses are going to adjust to that in the playoffs.
Thanks Grant it is an improvement but does need to get better.
Andrew Luck has the Colts converting 43.6 percent of their third downs – 7th best in the NFL.
Luck is amazing, his achievments and taking the Colts to a possible playoff berth is a great story still unfolding.
Is he the leading candidate for MVP right now?
You would have to think so. I dont see anyone else out there who is MVP to their team. He could be MVP and rookie of the year. Considering how bad the Colts were last year and how well their doing this year, yes at this point he would be MVP.
No. Matt Ryan, Adrian Peterson, and Peyton Manning. are currently ahead of Andrew Luck. Luck is however the clear leader for ROY in the offense category.
Grant, you mention the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Jets are ahead of the Niners in the third down area. This stat is questionable in how true it is considering how weak some of those defenses have been, especially the secondaries.
I’m talking about third down offense.
MWN
Good point with Peterson could challenge for it, but Denver was a playoff team last year and the Falcons were also a good team last year. Luck has taken a really bad team and has them balling.
I’m talking about that too Grant. The Jets and Dolphins play in the AFC East, a division with weak secondaries. And don’t get me started on the punchless Chiefs. All I am saying is the type of defense each team’s offense has played needs to be taken into consideration as well.
Ok, got it. How do you feel about the 49ers third down offense?
We wanted improvement there and there has been some. Just because your team is better on third downs doesn’t mean you win a game. Just look at the Jets, Dolphins, and Chiefs. Does it help? Yes, but if the team is converting the first or second down then that third down doesn’t really matter. One other thing that needs to be taken into consideration as well is how many of those third downs failures were efforts to run time off the clock so the opposing offense doesn’t have as many chances to capitalize.
Andrew Luck will be the top 2 QB’s in the NFL in 3 years along AR. Lets hope Harbaugh can do the same thing with CK.
I would say top 3 Neal. I don’t think he’ll be better than Drew Brees.
Andrew Luck is No.1 in the NFL right now in passing yards in the air minus YAC and drops with 1,751. Brees is No.3. with 1,708.
Alex Smith is 28th with 947.
Midwest,
That is why I said 3 years, Drew Brees will be in decline.
Grant, why bring up Smith here? He’s a play-action passer, and those guys usually don’t air it out much.
Alex Smith’s QB rating on play action passes this season is 135.2 – best in the NFL.
He’s 11th in both yards and touchdowns on play action passes.
Luck is a total stud. He will win ROTY, but not MVP, unless they pass Houston and win the division. Then it could get interesting.
I’ll have to disagree with you there Neal. I think he’ll still be in his prime.
In any event, it would be great if CK can be in that discussion in 3 years.
Either Smith or CK will be fine with me.
No chance of AS being in a discussion, don’t see AS even being with the Niners in 3 years. Also it would take him another 2 or 3 years to learn a new system.
There’s also a chance CK won’t be in the. discussion either. But either way, if the current QB three years from now is producing positive results in a good offense, I’ll be fine with it.
I’m late to the party here, but I can’t let you get away with that Grant.
You’re implying Alex is woefully inferior to other qb’s because his passing yardage is lower??
Carson Palmer must be awesome then, eh? He throws for big yardage all the time. Why do you think that is so?
No, I wasn’t implying anything.
Grant
Last year AS took a ton of sacks which you blamed mostly on him. The Niners went 13-3 and if not for TO’s, likely win that game and beat the crap out of Brady and win the Super Bowl.
You failed to look at the team that matters most (Niners) and the most recent data (2011 and 2012 records) as it correlates to Wins (the thing that matters) in your stat analysis.
Stay away from stats. They suck.
No, it’s Alex who sucks.
Proof needed. Note: there isn’t that much this season.
Hofer, this is off-topic but to follow up on our conversation earlier, this is from MM’s site: “Rams linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar was not fined for what the league ruled was a legal helmet-to-helmet hit on Alex Smith. Smith was out of the pocket and did not go into a feet-first slide, so he was granted no special protection as a quarterback.”
Thanks Dangle.
Curious that he wasn’t fined for a helmet-to-helmet hit. What defines a helmet-to-helmet hit that results in a fine?
If said hit is on a player in a defenseless position.
If it were PM or TB that was hit instead of AS, do you think there would have been a fine?
Honestly yes I do Hof. And I’m also trying to figure out how Smith wasn’t classified a defenseless player during the helmet-to-helmet contact.
He needs to learn how to slide properly.
That doesn’t answer my question Jack.
He wasn’t defenseless because he was running out of the pocket, and didn’t slide feet first like QB’s are supposed to.
That helps Jack. Thanks.
That said, I hope the NFL gets more consistent on what they rule a legal and illegal hit.
Mid,
The rule states, “A tackler using his helmet to butt, spear, or ram an opponent” is illegal. It doesn’t have anything to do with defenseless in this case. The league deemed that JLDunbar didn’t lead with his helmet with the intent to cause harm.
I know what you mean Hof, but I’ve seen that type of play either fined or not fined. That’s why I said the NFL needs to be more consistent in what they deem a legal or illegal hit.
Mid,
I agree with you.
One penalty is under the heading of Unnecessary Roughness. The other is under the heading of Players in a Defenseless Posture. In this case, I think it is under the category of unnecessary roughness and there should have been a fine.
The Niners have a few Achilles heel, their special teams are not very special, and they can’t tackle and their defense has regressed from last year, their offense is a little bit better than last year, but you would expect more with the free agents signings. I don’t see this team as a Super Bowl contender, it is riduculous to compare Harbaugh to Walsh and also Roman is no where near the great offensive coordinators that the Niners had with Holmgren and Shanahan.
That being said we do have a harder scheldule this year and at least we don’t have Nolan or the Rev bringing this organization down to the ground.
Purely conjecture Hofe regarding PM/TB.
The hit on AS was within the confines of the rules.
QB’ are exorted to take a feet first slide when they escape and run.
AS took a fierce hit, but it was not a hit with intent to injure.
AS has to be more discreet in taking a hit when running out the pocket.
While a few posters have made a small stink about CK’ running, I find it ironic that an experienced QB like AS takes a preventable hit that may have jeopardized his health and perhaps the teams chances of going to the SB.
AS must learn from this, and use better discretion going forward.
There have been other helmet-to-helmet hits that didn’t show intent to injury but had fines levied nonetheless. What makes this different from those AES?
Who/what is Precious?
Is this a way to promote a brand of mozzarella cheese?
If you have a special someone Hof, then I guess Timex is referring to her. Did you know she played football for the Niners?
The guy that runs the blog has banned users that add nothing to the blog article. If name calling is his game he won’t be here long.
Timex is BB tha kitty. I’ll delete him.
Thanks Grant.
Weird. BB used to be a rabid Smither like oneniner.
Guess he gave up on the Precious.
Lemons how is everything going these days?
Just stop it Msclemon. Your posts degrade into nonsense when you use the Precious.
@ Msclemons:
BBthekitty has always been a hater, at least as long as I have been here. Sorry, but the cat molester is one of you.
I can’t answer for the ones you refer to without being to see them replayed Under.
But I don’t disagree that fines have been given.
Many hits that have received fines are of the questionable vereity as well.
Your take smacks of the NFL having an agenda regarding AS.
Sorry, but that is what you are implying, its a stretch don’t you agree?
Sorry, that was for MWN.
No it doesn’t AES. I’m just trying to figure out what is labeled as a defenseless player in a helmet-to-helmet collision. I’ve seen it go both ways in the NFL, whether the intent to injure was there or not. If you don’t know either, then just say so. Don’t twist my words to claim I think the NFL. has a bias towards Smith.
Not trying to twist your words MWN. I was merely replying to Hofe’ comments that had the hit been on PM or TB instead of AS would there have been a fine?
You responded to Hofe that you honestly did.
Your response leaves very little room for another option MWN.
Why would you believe that PM/TB would be granted special privilige over AS?
If they are, why inact rules that don’t pertain to or or askewed for them?
But again, if I misunderstood your respose to Hofe I apologize.
It’s ok AES. I just know from watching Brady and Manning play that if they barely get touched they’re demanding a flag be thrown and the refs usually oblige no matter how ticky-tack the hit is.
AES,
I believe there would have been a fine and as flag thrown. As elite passers with tenure in this league, they get calls others don’t receive.
Alex needs to learn to throw the ball away. Feel the pressure roll out of the pocket and get rid of it. He’s afraid to throw it away in the pocket for fear of the interception. Its something Harbaugh needs to teach him, quickly.
When will you put up your prediction for Monday’s game Grant?
Tomorrow morning.
Sweet. :-)
Alex is a total bust.
The evidence suggests otherwise. Next.
Interesting article here from MM:
http://www.csnbayarea.com/football-san-francisco-niners/niners-talk/Better-red-zone-offense-means-fewer-shor?blockID=803161&feedID=5936
Seems like Akers numbers are actually in line from last season when he is over 40 yards out.
MidWest,
Sando already wrote the same thing a few days ago.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/81370/around-the-nfc-west-akers-not-slumping
I wasn’t aware of this article Jack. Either way, it’s good to know his numbers are actually on par.
MidWest,
Nothing towards you, but this is the second time in a little over a week where a Bay Area writer wrote basically the same thing as Sando after the fact. These are things you would expect the local guys to have first since they are covering only 1 team and he covers the entire division.
I know Jack. I just meant that I waasn’t aware of the article from Sando. You didn’t offend me bud.
Wasn’t, not waasn’t.
Mid, thanks for posting.
Maiocco and Branch are okay, but why do they keep coming out with this stuff days after a guy who covers not 1 team but 4?
Hoferfan67 says:
November 17, 2012 at 2:38 pm
AES,
I believe there would have been a fine and as flag thrown. As elite passers with tenure in this league, they get calls others don’t receive.
@Hofe
I won’t refute that. NFL superstars may receive a close/favorable call now and again but it’s the exception not the rule.
I remember a few years ago when PM/Colts were playing against the Redskins when PM took a sack and almost had his head ripped off by an overzealous DE. There was no flag on the play. I’m sure TB has taken some hit’s that could have resulted in a flag, but were not called.
Point: Superstars don’t always get the star treatment.
Hofe, I also believe that the same thing applies to ‘home’ calls that are questionable. Just ask the raiders how that worked for them in the ‘immaculate reception’ and the ‘tuck-rule’ games. How about the ‘music city miracle’ game. There are many more such cases.
The calls aren’t always right or fair sometimes, but that’s football. The hit on AS did not deserve a fine.
AES, thanks for you response. It’s good to see that we can disagree where others here get bitter or let drama interrupt a good debate. Good stuff.
Amen. Wait, no drama? Then how can I get my soap opera fix?! lol
Mid, it was a blatant miss. I can’t give him any credit for that. Only someone wanting to skew the analysis would have written the way he did. Not good!
Grant obviously has no understanding of statistics. You have to have something to compare to, or a stat is meaningless. What you have to know, in order to get an idea of how badly sacks affect your chances, is what the percentage of touchdowns per series is overall. If it’s 15%, there’s almost no significance to a 14% with a sack. If it’s 20% overall or better, it really means something. I do know that a drive that results in an interception gives you a 0% TD success rate. Some interceptions are from rushing your throw to avoid a sack. Of course a sack isn’t a good thing, but neither is a loss on a running play, an offensive penalty, or a dropped pass. Granted, Alex does take some unnecessary sacks, because he’s not a lightning quick thinker.
I think each team has an average of about 12 offensive possessions a game. Looking at the stats for 2012, each team scores only a little more than two offensive touchdowns a game, on average – let’s say 2.1. That comes out to an offensive touchdown 17.5% of the time, if the 12 series per game is correct. If you compare those numbers the 14% has some meaning.
Haha you’re so clueless. He failed in the New Orleans game! Thats a new one. I always find it funny how the only knock you have on him is the only passing stat that is correlated with LOSING, pass yards. 3rd in passer rating, 1st in completion percentage, 3rd in YPA. If any qb without a Smith on the back of his jersey was putting up those numbers you would be singing his praises.
Who is Precious?
We’re talking football and this guy wants to discuss a brand of cheese!!
If you compare AS to a cheese it would have to be Swiss, alot of holes in his game, with occasional efficiency.
The cheese goes perfectly with your whine Hofer.
Grant, would it be wrong of me to ask for any posts calling Smith the Precious be removed? It is getting to the same level as when he was being called Alice.
Jack,
Typical classless remark from someone that tries to be an objective analyst. Why not get lost on your blog for a while!! You’ve grown tiresome here with your nonsense! Now off you go…
Wow. Great proof Timex. A good choice to ignore the type of offense this team utilizes, Smith’s completion percentage, how he ranks against the blitz, and so much more. As for the three games you mentioned, two of them involved the whole team checking out before the game even began and the other involved the offense going in with a gameplan to run it down the Jets’ throat. And if I recall right, Smith was one of the several different runners in that game. Try again Timex.
Mid if Grant were to do that he would be abolishing all of msclemons amo regarding Alex. That is his bread butter hating term when referring to Alex. You would be crushing his entire existence on this blog.
Funny, you didn’t seem to have problems when I showed Smith in a positive light.
Biased, whatever you say.
I just have a problem with Smith being labeled with a derogatory name Jack. If somebody wants paint him in a negative light, then I’ll agree or disagree with it as I have in the past. But calling Smith something else other than his name reeks of nothing but the low levels of pathetic.
MidWest,
I actually agree with you. My comment was intended only for Hofer and his cheese question.
Lack of proof dude. Your hate is showing.
What time (century) is it for you Timex?
It’s half past monkey’s ass and quarter to his balls!
That’s sick Prime.
Hold on Timex, you think the Saints are going to the playoffs? Uhhh, okaaayyyy.
Timex is thinking and referring to last year. He did not set his clock to day light savings time.
But there is proof. The last two Giants games, both LOST by Alex Smith. Kyle Williams should never been put in the position he was.
Yes, and it was Smith’s fault two would-be interceptions never happened in Championship game. It’s his fault Williams had two rookie blunders. It’s also his fault our special teams and defense have regressed this season. It’s his fault the team had a total meltdown in both games. Get real Timex. Next thing I know you’ll be blaming Smith for the crappy economy. Good grief!
I’d say something, but your post says it all. And that is biased hate clouds all facts.
Nobody takes Jack’s blog seriously. So he comes here pretending to be grant cohn.
Trying to change the subject?
Jack’s blog kicks a$$ every time. He’s a great writer.
Mid, it really does not!
It’s my opinion Prime. I believe Jack has great potential with his writing style.
He writes well, but he’s not objective. He still won’t admit he missed the progression (blaming it on FG) when others agreed with my assessment. Maybe he will learn to be more open-minded and less drama centric.
I really like Smith, I think he’s unbelievably underrated by too many people, Grant included.
I also love the nickname. I think it’s brilliant. I thought MSC coined it, but I might be wrong?
He’s a lot better than Cosell in my opinion. .And if Jack always wrote perfectly, what would there be to debate about?
SMH. You need to go back and watch that DVR a bit more Hofer. Even from the TV angle you can clearly see Gore has his head turned both times Kaepernick looks his way.
I am not blaming Gore.
The problem is that you are watching the game on your TV which provides you a small box and misses about 40 yards of the action. The play call was to be a deep shot off play action. Kaepernick took the deep look and found it covered, looked to Gore who wasn’t looking, started to scramble looking back upfield, looked to Gore again, this time he was not looking because he was turning upfield, so Kaepernick looked back downfield, and by the time he went back to Gore who had sat down at the 1st down marker it was too late.
You don’t agree with me, and that is fine, but my analysis of the play is not biased in any way. You have called me biased in the past, and for some reason it is only following an analysis of a mistake by Smith, or in this case not blaming it on his back up.
Mid, it was a blatant miss. I can’t give him any credit for that. Only someone wanting to skew the analysis would have written the way he did. Not good!
Alex Smith is the best QB in football and also the greatest Niner QB of all time, whoops sorry I just had a DS moment,
Jack, I wasn’t the only one that noticed you missed the play with your analysis. We’ll leave it at that.
What a moron!
AS would of won multiple Super Bowls if he had JM teams, whoops I just had a DS moment.
Good Times!