Now that we’re halfway through the season, there’s a book on how to beat the 49ers. We know it, the 49ers know it – it’s their job to know it — and the rest of the NFL knows it.
Let’s explain that game plan and list the teams that can pull it off.
- Stop the run with seven defenders. If you can do that, you can beat the 49ers. You have to have a two-gap linebacker or a two-gap defensive lineman – a stud who can defend two gaps, because there are eight gaps at the line of scrimmage and just seven defenders. The 49ers defense can stop the run with seven defenders because Justin Smith, Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman are all two-gap players.
- If you can’t stop Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter with seven defenders, you’re going to have a much tougher time against the 49ers offense. You have to pick the right downs to bring your strong safety into the box to defend the eighth gap, and you also have to disguise it, because Alex Smith is smart and tends to audible to a pass play when he sees a safety creeping into the box before the snap.
- If your cornerbacks can cover Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham and Randy Moss 1-on-1, you can get away with playing eight defenders in the box.
- On the other side of the ball, you must play down-and-distance offense. That means no sacks, no penalties and you must gain at least four yards per play on every play. If you can run the ball, that’s great. If you can’t, you can still target Carlos Rogers, Donte Whitner and Perrish Cox in the passing game. They’re giving up a lot of short catches this year. Vic Fangio believes offenses eventually make the mistake that ends their own drive. You can’t make any mistakes. You have to complete the short passes over and over again. The Vikings pulled this off Week 3 when they drove more than 80 yards three times.
I don’t think the Rams can pull this off. They don’t have a two-gap defender on defense, and they don’t have the discipline on offense to slowly and consistently move the ball.
On the other hand, the Bears have the talent to pull off this game plan. The 49ers play the Bears in two weeks.
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Is it possible to believe that this game against the Rams could become a “trap game” for us? Being that we are playing such a tough team in 2 weeks and coming off a bye week to play a statistically weaker team in the division, can this become a game we may lose just by looking forward?
Not at home coming off a bye. The next game against the Rams on the road after playing Chicago and NO is the trap game.
The Bears also have Jay Cutler who will find ways to prove Vic Fangio correct, especially when you start getting pressure in his face.
When defenders bring extra men into the box the 49ers start running trap plays so you should add that teams will also need an answer for them as well.
How to beat the 9ers? Get ahead two scores and make Alex smith throw to come back 90% chance you win.
AKA… score more points? great analysis Hov (sarcasm warning, just in case its needed)
What you say is true. The 9ers have the 28th ranked passing attack in the NFL. If a team can force Alex Smith to beat them in the passing game the other teams chances of winning go way up.
Except that 90% of the teams cannot get up 2 scores on them, and the 10% that can, can only do it some of the time. They are without a doubt the toughest team to ‘beat’. That doesn’t mean they can’t have ‘off days’ or poor execution, but the makeup of the team doesn’t allow other teams to exploit their weaknesses very easily.
You know it, I know it, everyone knows it, there is a solution to the problem its called adjustments. That is why I have some problems with the play calling. Roman seems slow to adjust.
If you can’t stop Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, you’re gonna have a bad time.
If Crabtree and Moss get ridiculous YAC, you’re gonna have a bad time.
The Giants beat the 9ers because inexplicably they went away from the run and smith had his worst game in 2 years. the vikings won because ponder was able to escape pressure and run for key yards. it seems simple to me pound the ball pound the ball and pound the ball. if you face a qb who is dangerous with his legs put a spy on him. the point about putting 8 in the box is’nt a game plan to beat the 9ers its a game plan to beat anyone. if you can stop a teams passing attack while playing 8 in the box you will win everytime. i do’nt think you can beat harbaugh or smith anymore by putting 8 in the box.
I disagree. The bears don’t have the offense to beat the 49ers. Their o-line is garbage. They have a qb that panics and throws ints. The can’t stop the pass. And they haven’t beatin an o-line like ours yet. The Bears and Falcons are overrated at this point until they prove worthy. And in 2 weeks it will be their real first test. And the 49ers on both sides of the ball are just to physical. We will run all day and kill them with the dink and dunk and play action. The Bears are in for a reality check in two weeks.
Maybe this weekend against the Texans as well.
they have tillman, who is probably the best corner this yr
updated: he might miss Sunday’s game against the Texans if his wife goes into labor.
He has 7 forced fumbles and 2 interceptions returned for touchdowns
The Bears are winning because every bounce seems to be going their way. They are getting defensive TD’s and special teams TD’s to put up big points. This years Bears reminds of the 2002 49ers. That year the 49ers just found a way to win. Don’t underestimate the Bears. They are very dangerous even with a flawed offense.
+1
Well said ninermd….
NinerMD,
I rarely agree with you, but you nailed it.
You beat the Niners by putti g 8 in the box and continually forcing Alex Smith to make throws to beat you. Of course, you need to have some defensive backs that can cover one on one. The Bears have a good secondary. Their defense leads the leage in scoring. That means they score the football. The corners have had great seasons. They are ball hawks and they find the end zone when theyick it off.
However, as an offense, you have to be able to score points as well. I don’t think the bears o line can keep our pass rush under control. Any team that thinks Chilo Rachal is a starter has issues.
The Pack, Lions, Bills, and Cards all tried that, what happened?
Great points about the Oline and the game is at Candlestick. I know the Giants have a much better oline but I went to that game, and boy was it stinky to watch! Going to be a long time until I can get that out of my head!
Rebel,
Myself as well. They just owned us man.
You beat the Niners by putti g 8 in the box and continually forcing Alex Smith to make throws to beat you.
And who has beaten the 49ers by doing that?
Vikings and Giants
The Vikes played cover two and the Giants played nickel. So HOU don’t make stuff up if you don’t know.
The Vikings and Giants didn’t beat them because they played 8 in the box. They beat them by rushing 4, putting 7 into coverage.
Smith excels at PA, and defeating the blitz, both give him quick, clearly defined reads.
@ Houston:
… and that makes you 0 for 3 today. Thanks for playing.
Actually, the Vikes beat the 9ers because they got up early and were able to force the 9ers to try to pass to beat them which we all know is the achilles heel of the 49ers. The Vikes did play 8 in the box until they got up and were able to play back and keep all the short passes in front of them.
“An Achilles’ heel is a deadly weakness in spite of overall strength, that can actually or potentially lead to downfall.”
Are you saying Alex is going to lead to our downfall?
Kind of like how you think Obama is going to destroy america.
Houston,
Against the Vikings the offense moved the ball quite well, especially early on. It was the missed pass to Moss, and Smith not throwing to an open Crabtree on that goalline possession after the 2nd half KO return that killed them. (Yes the defense was off a bit too, but the offense didn’t get in the endzone when they had opportunities is my point.)
And the part about the Niners D, as good as it can usually be, allowing the oppostion to march down the field again and again had nothing to do with those losses?
ribico
Now, now.
No defense excuses now.
The most elite defense in the league, no way they can be beat
Our defense has off days, horrible against the Vikings and Eli and their great receivers, hate to say it makes our defense look like chop liver.
>>No defense excuses ever.
Fixed that for you, DS.
@Jordan i disagree i think smith has much more difficult time dealing with 5 or 6 db’s and a 4 man rush than 8 men in the box. it leads to much easier and quicker reads which plays right into smiths wheel house. if you want to beat smith force him to hold on to the ball and take away his check downs. also 8 in the box makes it very difficult to take away davis to the post
Bingo. The teams that have given the Niners offense trouble this season have done so by dropping LB’s and playing their safties back. If Roman would accept that and pound the run game, the Niners would win, but the Giants at least discovered that he tends to force some play calls that aren’t there.
As to the formula, this formula can beat any team if you can do it. 8 in the box is usually going to stop a running game and any team that can do that and cover receivers with 3 DB’s is going to win a lot of games. The reality is, most can’t and don’t.
The plan to attack our defense is also something that can work against any defense, but teams are not patient enough to stick with it more often than not.
I think the number 1 thing you have to b able to do is run the ball against them. The giants and vikings were both successful cuz of the threat of the run which kept them on there heels. The offense has to b able to control the clock with long drives and score touchdowns in the endzone.. on defense you have to stop there run and put pressure on alex smith
We all know that can you come up with something new?….
To beat the Niners, you’d have to stop the offense. The Niners D is responsible (or co-responsible) for losses only very very rarely, e.g., in Minnesota.
To stop the Niners offense, the D has to first stop the running game. There is no way to hold back the Niners O if the ground game is working. Niners will not make mistakes and grind out a win with the ground game.
Stopping the run is not enough this season. The Niners actually have a passing game that has gotten stronger as the season has progressed except for that hiccup against the Giants. Smith’s throwing mechanics, pre-snap reads, post-snap progression reads of receivers, and confidence have all improved and so has his understanding with the receivers.
But Smith has some inherent weaknesses, one of which is that he cannot react fast enough to post-snap changes in the defensive backfield. He’s not alone — all but the truly elite QBs are like that. So the key for the defense is to confuse Smith on third and long by moving the deep safety, or even a MLB dropping back and moving around during a mid-range pass. That confusion will lead to incompletions, sacks or interceptions.
Actually, several defenses are trying to take this approach by moving the safety in the deep middle of the field to places where the QB is not expecting him to be. Steve Young mentioned a month ago that Mike Nolan used this approach to get Peyton to throw three quick INTs against the Falcons.
Scheme wise we match up perfectly with the bears.
Our O runs the ball and limits mistakes which is what the Bears D thrives on. If we play 9er football (generaly play it safe by running 2/3 of the time and having 15-25 throws) and not turn the ball over we should be able to outwill them by the 4th quarter.
Conversly on D we dont give up big plays forcing the O to be methodical and drive down the field, something that Cutler seems incapable of doing. If we take away Marshal the other weapons are rather average
The plan to defeat the 49ers is quite simple, but can only be executed by 2-3 teams that remain on the schedule.
@ Jack:
Well, as long as only 38% of the remaining opponents can do it, I’m not worried. Wait, what?
I take it that you are worried about the Bears?
Yes, along with the Patriots and Seattle on the road. The Rams in St Louis will not be an easy out either. Amendola coming back this week is a huge boost for that offense.
@ Jack:
I am expecting the Bears’ game against Houston this weekend to provide some basis for predicting how the 49ers will do against Chicago.
I know Seattle is a tough place to play, but after the Week 7 game, I am not so worried about Seattle. That’s probably foolish optimism on my part.
Bu the way, in the article linked below, Kevin Lynch has an interesting explanation of why the 49ers’ sacks are down this season. I’m not sure I buy it, but would be interested in hearing your thoughts.
http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2012/11/06/mid-year-grades/
Lynch provides his explanation in the Pass Defense section.
Claude,
Lynch talks about them changing up their rush strategy after Minnesota, but referrences them smothering Stafford. They played Detroit before Minnesota.
That being said, the rush lanes thing was a point I made prior to the Vikings game because Ponder is so accurate when moving around and keeping plays going. They rely so much on the twist between the Smith’s to apply pressure that it puts a lot on Justin to not only get the guard and tackle to go with him, but also get out and maintain the outside leverage which becomes his responsibility.
What I am seeing is a back half that is playing extremely good, and Rogers seems to have picked it up the last few games after struggling early. The line is doing a good job of getting pressure and disrupting the QB, they just aren’t getting sacks.
Teams know that one of the things you need to do against this defense is get the ball out quick and they are doing just that which is part of the reason the sacks are down.
offensive lines continue to get better as the season progresses. As well as our O line is playing at the mid way point i believe they will be unstoppable by the playoffs. if they stay healthy this team could be brining home trophy #6
1. You can’t make any mistakes.
2. the Bears have the talent to pull off this game plan.
These are probably contradictory statements, Grant. See also: Jay Cutler, stupid turnovers.