Here are my Power Rankings at the midpoint of the 2012 season.
- New York Giants (6-2). They lost the first game of the season by 7 points, and they lost to the Eagles by 2 points. They dominated the toughest game on their schedule, beating the 49ers 26-3. The Giants have everything a team needs to win a Super Bowl: An elite coach (Tom Coughlin), an elite quarterback (Eli Manning), two elite wide receivers (Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks), elite pass protection, elite pass rush and a very good running back (Ahmad Bradshaw).
- New England Patriots (5-3). They lost two games by one point and one game by two points. They have the most balanced offense in football, ranking fifth in both passing and rushing yards. Their defense allows only 88 rushing yards per game – 8th best in the NFL. And their rookie defensive end, Chandler Jones, already is one of the best DEs in the NFL.
- Houston Texans (6-1). They score 30.9 points per game and allow just 18.3. Matt Schaub has only been sacked 8 times. Arian Foster is one of the most talented runners in football and Andre Johnson is one of the best wide receivers.
- San Francisco 49ers (6-2). They’re clearly the class of their division. They have the best running offense in the NFL. The defense is still elite, but it’s not getting as much pressure as it did last season. The 49ers sack differential is -9 (the offense has taken 9 more sacks than the defense has garnered). Every other team in the top 5 has a positive sack differential. In fact, over the past 10 seasons, every Super Bowl winner has had a positive sack differential. The Niners have struggled this season when they’ve fallen behind early and been forced to pass and pass and pass. Still, the Niners are a Super Bowl contender.
- Denver Broncos (4-3). A balanced team that’s quickly improving. The offense can pass and run. The defense can rush the quarterback and stop the run. Von Miller is one of the best players in the NFL. Peyton Manning has lost zip on his throws, but he’s still one of the best quarterbacks.
The undefeated Atlanta Falcons do not crack my top 5. They’re one-dimensional. They can’t run or stop the run. They’re not a serious Super Bowl contender, like top 5 teams are.
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Sorry to go off topic, but add this to the (long) list of things I didn’t know:
According to the NFLPA numbers, the 49ers have the least amount of 2013 cap space in the league.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/01/current-cap-spac-nflpa-version/
Interesting, looks like we are going to cut some players, or redo contracts for next year, kind of a waste, when we have 2 draft picks that are highly paid, and are shelved 1/2 the season already.
Isaac Sopoaga is probably not coming back. Matt Barrows notes in his blog how RJF’s time is biting out a chunk of Sop’s plays. Also the latter’s role in offense has been replaced by that of Tukuafu.
I’d say that the draft picks are learning the game and are lucky enough to be doing that without making rookie mistakes that cost the team. They will do better on the field when their time comes.
according to DS MC is cut. S that will save cap
So*
Adam707
No. MC will be asked to renegotiate, and he won’t. MC wants to be in an offense that passes 30+ a game, and we don’t.
That is current cap space for the 2012 season. Patrick Willis has a cap hit of $17,642,287 this year, but only $3,511,375 in 2013. They paid him a big chunk of his guaranteed money this year and his salary drops by over $14 million next season, providing more cap space for 2013. There are a lot of incremental increases in the contracts for next season, though.
beat me to it. Great info.
That’s this years cap number and it’s of no consequence because the Niners are already loaded up for a playoff run.
@ BigP:
Sorry, you are correct; that it is the 2012 number.
I knew that when I typed the comment and told myself to make sure I reported it as the 2012 number. And still …
I guess I picked the wrong day to give up sniffing glue.
A lawyer “sniffing glue”? Do I hear a lawsuit coming?
i think you overated new england. their pass D is as bad as atlanta’s run d. i pretty much agree with the rest. its important to remember the last 2 sb champs were miserable at midseason, its all about who gets hot at the end in this era of crappy salary cap football.
Good power rankings and can not find fault for anything that you wrote. I do think that Atlanta will be dangerous in the playoffs. The Rams games and the game in Seattle will be a good meausring stick. Last year during the season we beat the giants but lost to them in the playoffs, I see history repeating itself inthat we lost to the giants but will beat them in the playoffs! Let me know if you think I am off or just nutts! have a great day and thank your for all your hard work and detail in this blog.
The next time we play the Giants, we have to make sure they don’t steal our playbook (pound the running game, ball control passing game) or our team’s identity (harrass the passer, ball hawking secondary) like they did this last game.
“And their rookie defensive end, Chandler Jones, already is one of the best DEs in the NFL.”
That’s Chanandler Bong Jones. Ugh did I just make a friends reference, I feel so dirty.
Love the Friends reference. Great epsiode
Where do you rank the Bears?
After lions and tigers but preceding oh my!
HA!!
Nice.
6. Falcons 7. Packers 8. Bears
I disagree with the Pats ranking. Good team but they’ve got too many holes defensively. I would also rank the Falcons in the top 5. No matter what you think of how they won, the are undefeated.
The Bears are a fraud imo. Their defense is legit, but their offense is woefully inconsistent. I’d rank the Packers ahead of them right now.
I don’t think the 49ers can exploit the Pats’ defensive holes.
I think the Broncos and 49ers would beat the Falcons if they played this weekend.
Speaking of Power Rankings:
Crab15 78
*49erGirl 77
Angus 77
Coffee 76
DRogue 75
pirate 74
ninermd 73
rocket 70
hjy396 69
JackH 68
NickR 66
elG 65
MWN 58
Chris 48
*Weekly high score
good ol’ ElGuapo pulled a cardinals. Looked strong the first 4 weeks, but has completely fallen apart the last 4.
There are several ways to do the so-called Power Ranking. One is to use the use their overall judgement (“voices in their head”) and then justify one’s selection by citing the presence of “elite” players (QB obsession) and coaches in the team, head-to-head record between the top teams, and cherry-picking stats without understanding the context. Most writers and bloggers take this route.
Another route (one I favor more) needs more analysis and use of tools (and hence, a lot more work). Mike Tanier, who I think is one of the premier football writers, uses this approach which he describes as:
“..power rankings …. based upon hours of tape study and statistical analysis, strength of schedule, Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings (which are based on every single play of the season, not just the overtime field goals) and the opinions of both national experts and the voices in my head.”
http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40127332/
Mike Tanier ranks Niners as #1 and I agree with him that the Niners are the best team in the league. I particularly agree with Tanier on the slightly overrated Pats which he ranks at #7.
To give an example what I mean by using numbers without context, here’s what Grant writes about Niners D: ” The defense is still elite, but it’s not getting as much pressure as it did last season.”
Niners D is as good as last year, probably better. So why are they not getting more sacks or pressures? The primary reason is that the until the last two games, the ST coverage has been poor and the D did not get the favorable field positions that they got last year. Hence, they had not been as aggressive as last year in the early part of the season. However, ST coverage has picked up in the last two games and now the D is again getting good field position.
The other reason why sacks have declined is that the offenses are adjusting by getting rid of the ball sooner. However, that has led to many hurriedly thrown passes that have been incomplete. Hence, the pass defense numbers look better.
The defense is not better than last season. Justin Smith is not playing at the same level. Neither is Carlos Rogers. Donte Whitner is struggling big-time in pass coverage.
I agree that Justin Smith is not looking as dominant as last year. Among DBs, TB and Cully are playing better. Rogers is same as before — not great at covering speedy slot receivers but overall pretty solid. His stats look worse than they are. Niners Nation did a good piece on it yesterday. I’m not sure Whitner is playing the pass any better or worse than last year. I think Whitner is having to defend mid-range passes more than he did last year because teams are throwing more short and mid-range balls at the Niners with QBs getting rid of the ball quickly. I don’t have numbers to back me up, though.
Rogers is not the same as before. He’s allowing a QB rating of 92.4 this season. He allowed a QB rating of 65.1 last season. He plays a ton of man coverage, so those statistics are pretty close to accurate.
@ Grant:
The defense is not better than last season. Justin Smith is not playing at the same level. Neither is Carlos Rogers. Donte Whitner is struggling big-time in pass coverage.
And yet, the defense is producing better results than last year, particularly in terms of pass defense. Perhaps playing a second-year-in-the-same-system and the continuity of bringing back so many starters also benefits players on defensie.
Also, Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver are both playing at higher levels than they did last year. You can probably say the same for Ahmad Brooks and Navorro Bowman, but the improvement is on a smaller scale.
I think the better numbers are a fluky result of a small sample size. I don’t think Aldon Smith has played better this season. He had 7 sacks and 24 pressures the first half of last season playing half the snaps. And then he was way better the second half of last season.
@ Grant:
Aldon’s game is more well-rounded this year. He’s handling a full range of responsibilities. Moreover, I would suggest that the majority of the additional snaps he has taken this year have been running plays or plays in which the 49ers have dropped him into coverage (not that I advocate them doing that), so it isn’t like he has seen a huge increase in pass rush opportunities.
You conveniently ignored Culliver, Brooks and Bowman. And Goldson. I forgot Goldson. He is much more consistent this year than last year. PFF actually rates him highly this season.
I think the better numbers are a fluky result of a small sample size.
All of them? The drop in points scored against? The full yard drop in yards/pass attempt given up? The 45 yards/game drop in passing yards given up? The 37 yards/game drop in total yards given up? You’re going to dismiss all of that?
And why aren’t you dismissing the worse numbers for Justin Smith and Carlos Rogers as fluky results of a small sample size? Or are those numbers somehow more reliable because they support your position?
They gave up 24 points to the Vikings and 26 to the Giants at home. I think a decent offense with a decent game plan can score 20-30 points on the 49ers defense this season.
They gave up 24 points to the Vikings and 26 to the Giants at home.
13 of the Giants points came off of turnovers. Twice the Giants started drives in the 49ers’ red zone, and the 49ers’ defense held them to field goals.
I wouldn’t be so quick to point to those results as evidence of a systemic weakness rather than simply a couple of bad games.
We’ll just have to agree to disagree on this one.
What happened against the Vikings?
@ Grant:
I don’t know; I didn’t see that game. From what I was told, the entire team pretty much came out flat. To my knowledge, you’re the only person who has suggested that the Vikings exploited a weakness in the 49ers’ defense.
Maybe it was the 10:00 am start.
They mixed up runs and passes very well. They dinked and dunked effectively. They targeted Aldon Smith, Donte Whitner and Carlos Rogers in coverage.
>>What happened against the Vikings?
Trap game. Every team has ‘em.
If we were to play the Vikings 10 times, I bet we’d win 8 of those.
Don’t be so sure. That team matches up very well against the 49ers.
Football Outsiders predicted the 49ers would win 7 games this season.
It’s a good thing their DVOA rankings are based upon *actual* performances vs the 7 wins thing that was the result of theoretical quantitative analysis formulaic voodoo.
Does their DVOA ranking ever predict a Super Bowl winner? Did FO have the Giants and the Patriots as their top DVOA teams last year? No.
F.O. gets into trouble when trying to predict over a season because it’s purely statistical and has mechanistic models (like role of coaches in game planning and role of team depth in overcoming injuries). But it’s pretty good at looking back and explaining how good or bad a team was in the past.
My power rankings are projecting Super Bowl favorites. Clearly the 49ers have played better than the Patriots the first half of the season, and that means very little in the bigger picture.
Allowing the lowest yards per pass play in the league is a big deal. Also near the top in yards per rush allowed, and #1 in yards per play total. I think that’s more predictive than turnovers or sacks. Both of those fluctuate quite a bit year on year. I give the slight edge to this year’s D over last year.
I think the weaknesses of this season’s defense were exposed in the Giants game. It’s not quite as stout against the run. The pass rush isn’t quite as good, and the secondary can be thrown on. Dashon Goldson has improved a lot, though.
You realize that your top five shares 4 common teams with Football Outsiders, and your top 8 has the same 8 teams as their top 8 by DVOA.
FO also sees the Broncos and Pats as way better than their records show, and despite their mistaken prediction for the 49ers they have recognized them as a top 5 team. Seems like DVOA is jiving pretty well with scouting this year.
I did not realize that. Thanks for pointing it out.
I agree Chris. I think the D is a little better this year, less points, less yards and less big plays given up. They have not made as many big plays, or turnovers, but their 3-N-OUT % is better this year too. Less points given up when the opponent starting yardline is worse than last year as well.
I agree CR and JS appear to have declined slightly, still great though, but Brooks, Culliver, Brown, and RJF have picked their games up.
As Disraeli said there are Lies; Damnable Lies and Statistics. You can find just about any statistic to support your position. So while I agree the Defense doesn’t look as good as last years; there are not as many turnovers and sacks; in points given up per game it is ranked number 1 giving up 12.9 points a game. Last year it was ranked #4 giving up 14.3 per game, so in fact in points per game the Defense is better.
The Offense is interesting. This year in points per game it is ranked 15th scoring 23.6 points per game. Last year it was ranked 26th scoring 23.8 points per game. The Offense appears to be more explosive this year but the point total doesn’t support that conclusion. But I would note we kicked more field goals and ST and the Defense scored more last year so maybe the Offense is a bit better.
I am sure there are statistics that will counter this; (see above), but I focus on points because that is in fact how you win games.
Of course this is all Bar talk at this point; the season has a long way to go and we have some tough games coming up; Pats, Bears, Seahawks away so we will see how things shakedown.
>>This year in points per game it is ranked 15th scoring 23.6 points per game. Last year it was ranked 26th scoring 23.8 points per game.
Interesting numbers, indicating overall league scoring is down. Does it mean defenses are adapting to the high power passing offenses that were supposed to rule from here on out? Does it mean the copy-cat league is gearing up with teams emulating the Harbaugh approach? :)
Midseason power rankings or superbowl contender rankings?
Falcons deserve to be in the top 5 just alone on their undefeated record
Falcons not even in the top 5? You have GOT to be kidding me. Falcons dominated the Eagles (the same team the Giants lost to). And the falcons run defense has given up alot before the bye but they improved 99% over the bye, holding the McCoy to under 100 yds rushing, again something the Giants couldnt do. Not to mention the Falcons secondary is 3rd in the league for takeaways(and thats WITHOUT star corner Brent Grimes).
Falcons and Giants also played Redskins…giants played them AT HOME and won by 4, falcons played them on the road and beat them by more then that. Falcons also held rg3 and their potent run attack better then the Giants. In 3 quarters the redskins offense didn’t score ONE offensive TD.
Matt Ryan is also playing better then ALL of the QB’s in your top 5. Joe Flacco even said Matt Ryan should be MVP. I can’t take your rankings seriously………
The only thing impressive about them, is their record. Division teams always play each other tougher, no matter the teams record.
I’ll predict that they lose the next 3 out of 4 games, DAL, @NO, @TB. The only decent team they beat was DEN, and Manning threw 3 early picks in that game.
ATL is a dome team and they better hope they play all their playoff games at home. They have the easiest schedule next to the Bears and to date, they have not played a physical, smash mouth team in the league. They should have lost to CAR and they escaped luckily against the Raiders.
I hope we play them in the playoffs. We owe them for a couple years ago when they came to SF and blew us out.
ARGH!! Mr. LOCKDOWN corner getin burned by Roddy White for a 465 yard TD and Dre’ Bly’s show boat INT when we were down, like, 85 …. then he fumbles. it. **smh**
Mid season rankings:
1- SF 49ers .750 against .530 schedule
2- Denver Broncos .571 against .608 schedule
3- Houston Texans .850 against .480 schedule
4- New England Patriots .625 against .475 schedule
5- NY Giants .750 against .406 schedule
Each teams record is relative to the current strength of the teams they played so far.