Michael Crabtree is the 49ers leading receiver for the second season in a row.
He seems slightly faster and quicker than he was a year ago. On the other hand, his yards per catch average are down to 11.3, 85th-best in the NFL and more than a yard lower than his career average.
AdvancedNFLstats.com ranks Crabtree as the 42nd-best wide receiver in the NFL this season. They credit adding a .4 percent win probability to the 49ers.
Crabtree had a fantastic game against Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals overrated secondary on Monday night football, catching two TD passes. Crabtree now has 3 TD catches on the season, which ties him for 31st-best in the league.
He ranks 18th in YAC with 176 yards after the catch.
He is the 49ers No.1 receiver, but on most teams he would probably be a No.2. Still, he’s performed well in his No.1 role this season.
MIDTERM GRADE: B+.
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I believe it is very difficult for any receiver to earn an A grade when playing for a B QB. i believe stronglythat in the WR/QB relationship the QB has more to do with the success of the WR then the opposite
And the converse is true, too. It seems to me that for every excellent throw that Rodgers, Eli or Brees makes, there is another play in which the receiver makes an impossible-looking catch. So far this season, I recall as many easy passes dropped by Niners pass catchers as superb ones made.
As a team, the 49ers rank #26 in YAC. If Crabtree played in a different system, he would be more productive. If Vernon Davis played in a different system, he would be more productive. He should be a 1000+ yard TE with 10+ TD’s every year. I’m sure he would be more vocal about his stats if he wasn’t benefitting from a big contract. Virtually all of the pass catching offensive weapons would be more productive in a different system. It’s kind of hard to assign grades when they aren’t being utilized that often. “He ranks 18th in YAC (which is wrong) with 176 yards after the catch.” There are also 20 other players with more receptions than Crabtree. He is ranked #10 in YAC, with four spots in the top ten occupied by RB’s.
One aspect of Crabtree’s game that has improved of late is short-area quickness (also pointed out by Greg Cossell) which was on full display against Peterson. That SAQ definitely helps in gaining YAC.
I hear what you are saying old coach, but I am trying to wrap my head around a statistics-based grading system in which Smith, who is among the Top 10 QBs in numerous statistical categories, including overall categories like passer rating, QBR, and DVOA, earns a B- while Crabtree, whose best positional ranking is his 18th in YAC, earns a B+.
Curious.
Because he doesn’t impact the game like other QB’s do. I understand that he isn’t asked to, but it is what it is. He is better then a game manager, but he isn’t a game changer. He has not shown the ability to carry this team when the running game or defense is not performing to their ability.
Big P, the game is evolving so fast right now with players on both sides of the ball becoming impact players at any given psoition and within any game.
Not to excuse Smith but the elite, all world QB’s are a thing of the past.
My list of elite QB’s include Eli, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers. Those QB’s as good as they are, still need a lot of help in which to dominate a game or carry a team to vicotry. With that being said, with the right defensive game plan, they can easily be beat.
Back in the day, there was not stopping Montana no matter defenses threw at him. You just knew he would and could deliver a victory. I could say the same thing about Terry Bradshaw, and Dan Marino.
Montana was a god, but not an omnipotent one. Many teams figured out how to stop him. Example, In the 80′s we lost to the Giants in the playoffs more often than beating them.
The Giants have become our new nemesis, just like the Cowboys and Packers back in the 90′s.
Coming from a Smither, that is hilarious, ofcourse teams stopped Montana, but current teams, don’t stop Smith, it is the entire offense to blame.
FDM,
He isn’t asked to carry the load like other QB’s are. Green Bay has the #26 ranked rushing attack and is ranked #18 in points allowed, yet Rodgers has thrown for 21 TD’s and only 4 INT’s. The Packers are 5-3. Would Smith be able to replicate those numbers in the same situation? I don’t know, but I have my reservations. As far as Montana goes, he was amazing, but he also played without the salary cap. Those teams were loaded and were one of the reasons the salary cap was instituted in the first place.
Neal, the adults are talking football, come back later with your hate. Thats all you offer.
@ BigP:
My comment was not so much about either individual grade, but about the internal inconsistency of the two grades.
Thanks for the clarification regarding Crabtree’s YAC numbers.
BigP, you’re correct AS hasn’t been a game changer except for the N.O. playoff game. MC isn’t a game changer either and has yet to show that he is. He was remarkable during the AZ game this last week but still not the explosive #1 guy the 9ers thought they drafted. There is still time for both MC and AS to become game changers but it will require GR to game plan for them. When the 9ers have thrown 70-80 times to date less than the top teams, there are less opportunities to do so.
@Claude you rank Alex based on efficiency stats and then rank Crabtree based on volume stats. Apples to oranges.
Alex is very efficient when he is very limited. You need to look at Crabtree based on a very limited passing game. YAC per target or something like that. Or else compare Crabtree’s volume stats (18th) to Alex’ volume stats (26th).
Clem,
AS is 5th with a 7.9 ypa. He is has passed 80-120 less than the top QBs. Before you dismiss his ypa, VCruz and WWelker add to EMannings and TBrady’s ypa more than MC does for AS. It’s all relevant!!!
@Hofer YPA is an efficiency stat, not a volume stat. Claude is comparing Crab’s volume stats in a very limited passing attack to Smith’s efficiency. It’s the same as comparing Alex’ productivity (very low) to Crabtree’s efficiency (average).
Apples and oranges. You Smithers hate volume stats unless you can use them to make an excuse.
“Before you dismiss his ypa, VCruz and WWelker add to EMannings and TBrady’s ypa more than MC does for AS.”
I get Welker, but how is Cruz helping Manning more than Crabtree is Smith?
Jack
Simple answer:
Does Cruz get defenses to worry about him more (double/roll coverages over) more than MC does?
Because if he does, that exposes the defense/opens holes for other guys to get open, which in turn helps EM since there are more open guys.
If Cruz doesn’t do this for EM more than MC, he isn’t better.
Jack,
You are correct. Crabtree ranks #10 overall (6th amongst receivers) in YAC and Cruz ranks #18 overall (#9 amongst receivers) in YAC despite having 14 more catches than Crabtree this season.
VCruz was second in YAC last year for all WRs. MC was ranked 12 in YAC last year for all WRs. By end of 2012, we’ll have to see out they end up.
*where* they end up.
“@Hofer YPA is an efficiency stat, not a volume stat.”
Clem, I thought you would understand my point but you didn’t so I’ll make it more clear for you. If AS ypa is 7.9 and he’s thrown 80-120 less than other QBs, we’ll prorate his passing numbers accordingly if he threw roughly the same number of times as other top passing teams. If AS throws 100 more times (avg of 80-120 more throws by top teams) and completes at 69% (his current number) multiplied by his ypa of 7.9, that adds another 545 yds to his 1659 passing yds. His total yards have clearly been affected by *throwing 1/3 less* than other teams.
Even if you used a very conservative completion rate of 60%, that would add 474 more passing yards to his total of 1659 (total 2133) which would place him 5th in the league.
Claude,
Crabtree is 6th among all WR’s in YAC.
@Claude the reason i gave smith a B- [ I believe he will be a solid B by the end of the year] is that i do’nt believe his accuracy on long passes is not an A level especially long sideline passes and his awareness in the pocket is not of an A level. his bad int vs seattle and bad choices vs the giants dropped hi grade from a B to a B- in my mind. the way i grade is the eye test more than statitical anyalisis
@ old coach:
I was referring to the apparent inconsistency in Grant’s grading system. Sorry, I should have made that clearer.
http://ninerchatter.blogspot.com/2012/11/49ers-first-half-progress-report-offense.html
Here’s my shot at grades. I took a little different approach.
your grades are nearly as bad as Grants. You give the rb’s an A- despite calling them “possibly the best backfield group in the league.” You give the offensive line an A-, blaming them inexplicable for Smith’s penchant for taking sacks when he could easily throw it away. Looking at advanced stats this is the highest graded offensive lines for rushing in the league.
And you give Smith a B-. How many qbs can you put ahead of him? I count 8 or possibly 9.
Smith and CK are responsible for 8 of the 24 sacks. Taking those out, the offensive line would still rank only 16th in the league. They dominate in the run game, but are average with pass protection.
Jack, your grades seem to be more indicative of the 6-2 record. I agree with all but the OL. They run block well but they shouldn’t get an A- if VD is needed to help as often as he does. During several games this year I’ve seen pass rushers untouched sack the QB. I believe their grade should be a B+.
Hofer,
I went back and forth between those 2 on the OL quite a bit, but I feel as though they deserve the lions share of the credit for the offense. They might end up with 3 or 4 of the 5 in the Pro Bowl.
Mr. Crabs has meaty claws.
Crabtree would be a spectacular #2 for most teams not the NY Giants. He’s the 2nd best wr in the (admittedly pass-phobic) NFC west. Any statistical comparison to the rest of the league’s receivers requires a serious “*” though, Grant. The 49ers throw the ball 26 times a game. Thats 29th in the league. If they were to pass like the median team they’d throw the ball 33 times a game and if they were pass crazy (like the pats) they’d throw it 40 times a game. So where would MC’s stats be if he played for an average (or extreme) passing team. He’d have 558 (677) yds, 50 (60) rec, and 5 (6) tds. With those numbers he’d rank 16th (4th) in yards, 6th (1st) in rec, and 6th (5th) in tds. That type of production would make him a major star but he’s never going to see it here in SF. Instead he gets to do the dirty work of blocking for Gore and he’s excelled at that. I’m not advocating for them to pass more, I think the formula they have is working pretty well (at least 6 out of 8 times) but we should all keep in mind the type of team we have when we grade our wr’s.
Its also worth pointing out that his low ypc are a reflection of the way the team is using him. He’s seeing much more work across the middle and out of the slot and I think it suits him well. Compare his ypc to other possession receivers and he looks pretty good (welker has 12.3 and harvin has 11.1). Look at his YAC per catch as well. He’s getting 4.5 yac/catch. Then look at Cruz (4), CJohnson (4), AJGreen (3.5).
All that being said I wouldn’t gripe too strongly with a B+. I might give him an A- since I think theres room for improvement.
mighty joe
So, I don’t use stats to grade WR’s. Same for QB’s.
QB’s are judged by their W-L record above all else. AS passed that test. For WR’s, it is how much attention do they demand from the defense. That is something that transcends stats completely.
For those of you who voted for Patrick Willis in the expansion draft poll, I have a devil’s advocate question: Would a team really choose to build their team around an inside linebacker? It’s the least valuable position on the defense.
And an aging one at that…
ILB’s can play alot longer than other defensive positions. i believe willis could be around another 6 to 9 yrs
Nah, Aldon’s (my vote) the guy they’d take. He is going to be a superstar for many years to come.
It could be Aldon. It could also be Vernon.
Even if we are taking positional value into account?
@ Grant:
Not when there’s a dominant and still improving second year pass rusher available.
How much does he benefit from playing next to Justin Smith?
Some teams might put Jason Pierre-Paul, Von Miller, Clay Matthews and Chandler Jones above Aldon Smith on their big board. A lot of teams might have Vernon Davis as their top-rated tight end.
@ Grant:
Fair point. There’s no way to know right now, but I suspect that Aldon will keep improving to the point where he will be dominant without Justin Smith playing next to him. I just hope that we have to wait 4-5 years to find out.
Given the relative values of pass-rushers and tight ends, I think teams would value the 5th best pass rusher over the best tight end. Also, I think that Aldon has a versatility advantage over a couple of the pass rushers you named — he would be attractive to both 3-4 and 4-3 teams.
I voted Aldon, the guy is not even fully coordinated yet. You know, like most of us were in Jr. High.
the inside linebacker in most cases is the QB of the defense, I won’t be quick to regard it as the least valuable position.
you could conclude the bears and ravens have always been consistent on defense over the years because of their MLB
Given the choices on your poll, I would.
Did anyone know Crabtree was a QB in high school? Lookout CK7! Crabcat?Lol
http://www.myspace.com/video/crabtree/michael-crabtree-high-school-games/2317545