Earlier I wrote that Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice has been too focused on passing this season. One poster on this blog cited Tice’s 50-50 run-to-pass ratio as a counterargument.
A 50-50 run to pass ratio does not prove anything other than a coach in the press box tracking runs and passes, for whatever inane reason.
Calling plays is not like handing out M&Ms – one for you, one for me, etc.
You have to go with your best weapons and feed the ball to your difference makers. Good teams have tendencies and tend to do things over and that is why they are good. The better the team the more the tendencies because success is a repetitive issue.
Think about it this way: Most teams are fortunate to average 64 plays in a game.
Of those plays, the play caller may have 16 that are plays he can call without influence by down, distance, ball position, score or time of game in half or the 4th Q – i.e. “dealer’s choice.”
Those 16 plays are the ones for which coordinators should prepare because those are the game changers and should include at least a six-pack of quick sixes – surefire touchdowns.
Those other plays are determined by where the ball is, etc. In other words, if you have the ball 1st and 10 at your 10 yard-line, there are only a few plays in your entire play book that you dare call, and you probably have installed those plays early in training camp.
Same thing when it is 1st and goal on the 3 yard-line – you have your bread and butter goal line runs, so there is no game planning there. You are going to go with your strengths and your best plays that have been rehearsed since day one when you installed your goal line runs.
Keep an eye out for both Tice’s “dealer’s choice” plays on Monday night, and see if they are dynamic game changers or not.
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Grant, good read!
It’s not the ratio balance of 50/50, it’s when during the game, when it’s least expected, when you call the run or the pass and does it keep the defense on the back of their heels. That’s the key period.
I’m MidWestNiner and I approve this post. :-)
So Grant, in consideration of your previous post, are you saying on those 16 dealer’s choice plays Chicago should predominantly run the ball? I’m not sure I understand where you are going with this…
I think Chicago just need to give the ball more to Forte and less to Bush. He’s a much better back than Bush and is dangerous as both a runner and receiver.
I’m saying you learn about a play caller’s tendencies and preferences from their dealer’s choice plays, not their run-to-pass ratio.
You said that Tice focused to much on the pass and then created this whole post to clear up that you mean only on 16 plays a game does he do that. So, do you think that he should run instead of pass on those 10 plays?(6 are supposed to be quick fire TD’s)
There is a high correlation between running more than 35 times and winning. Look it up.
I see. I agree to some extent, though I think it is more than just those handful of plays. There are very few instances where a coordinator is restricted to a either run or pass on first and second down – in the current era of the passing QB many coordinators prefer the short passing game to set up 2nd and 3rd and short rather than the running game, regardless of field position.
A ‘balanced’ offense you would expect to generally mix up run and pass on first and second down, except at the end of a half or if the score is lopsided. Third down is typically affected by distance, so can’t read too much into preferences there.
@ Grant:
There is a high correlation between running more than 35 times and winning. Look it up.
Yes, but which is the cause and which is the effect?
“There is a high correlation between running more than 35 times and winning. Look it up.”
Then why doesn’t everyone just run the ball 35 times and we’ll all have 14 ties a week?
Can you cite your sources or is this all original thinking? (i.e. your choice of terms, your number of shot plays, etc…)
Nice football strategy post Grant.
“and although the Bears have two decent running backs in Matt Forte and Michael Bush, offensive coordinator Mike Tice often has strayed from attempting to establish the ground game, and is way too focused on passing.”
This was the original statement. You’re telling me that when you posted this you were talking about Tice focusing on the passing play for only the 16 or so “dealers choice” plays? That sounds like a good argument after being called on his obvious balanced attack but I seriously doubt that you were trying to imply all that with that one sentence. I’m sure because you felt like you had to make an entire other post to back it up.
99% of the time if someone talks about focusing on the pass game and not establishing the run that is a discussion about the balance of the teams offense and not what they are doing on the 16 out of 50 or so plays they run that day.
Calling plays is not like handing out M&Ms – one for you, one for me, etc
Grant gonna disagree with you on this. One of the factors in the success of the WCO is distrubting the ball. Very important concept in the short passing game. Its part of the chess match who is he going to go to now.
Who out there now really is running the pure WCO? Nobody!!!!!!!! Who in the NFL has a current starting line-up featuring a Jerry Rice; a John Taylor; a Brent Jones; a Roger Craig; a Tom Rathman; a Joe Montana or a Steve Young? Today’s salary cap does not allow for those types of dynastys, and that is one of the major goals of Goodell, creating parity football. Green Bay, which may be the closest to a modern WCO, attempts to have some semblance of distribution, but they don’t have a FB comparable to former 49er FBs. In fact, they don’t have a RB comparable to former 49er RBs. Andy Reid in Philly attempts to run a semblance of the WCO that he picked up from Holmgren; however, he does not have a 5-tool offensive set of weapons – two RBs, a TE and 2 WRs plus a QB. Therefore, today’s teams must feature the guys who are the playmakers and occasionally give the others some touches, but, above all, remember that the goal is to win the game.
You forgot to mention Dwight Clark.
Guess you didnt watch the Cards game. Thats was pure WCO performance. That also was a very good defense they played against.
Vick isn’t a WCO type QB. He takes risks with no reward. He can’t make good decisions. He runs first. He looks for big plays when there are none available.
JM was and remains the most ideal WCO QB ever. The further from his style of play you get, the further away you get from the ideal, true WCO QB.
We have no passing game!………Aaaaargh
Finally got the export feature working again for the all22 pictures.
http://ninerchatter.blogspot.com/2012/11/film-review-kaepernick-caught-on-tape.html
Jack, the all 22 pictures you go over are absolute money. Keep up the good work.
@ Jack:
Thanks for another informative blog post. I especially liked the route previews you provided for the Manningham completion play.
I eagerly await DS’ reaction to the last photo. Somehow, I don’t expect it to change his opinion.
I actually don’t check out Jack’s blog. He gives his analysis here, where I may decide to reply.
Thanks guys.
DS, that’s too bad. I included a special piece and mentioned you. You should check it out.
Nick, yep. That’s part of why I included that play. I wish I could do each of his pass play’s because I really was more impressed watching it from these angles than when I watched it on the TV. That view is just so limiting.
Jack
That would be a sweet if not for the slight creepy factor.
It may be just me, but I keep this blog universe seperate from any other, and I do the same with other blogs and all online activities as well. Don’t mix drinks I was always told. Of course that was after the fact. lol
The problem with the all 22 analysis is that it is *one* screen shot – it doesn’t show the progression of the play with one screen shot. The analysis of the play that DS described on here is correct. CK did not get rid of the ball quickly enough to FG when he was open.
On the 9ers 48 right after the snap, FG turns and looks for the ball and CK had ample time to hit him. Later on, FG turns up field with his back to CK and that is the screen shot Jack decides to present as a non-biased analysis which it is not. There was even enough time during the play for CK to go to FG a second time when FG turned it up field, but CK still doesn’t pull the trigger and decides to run the ball.
If Jack was doing a non-biased comprehensive analysis of that play, it would take a minimum of 5 screen shots, showing the play progression, right after the snap showing FG looking back for the ball twice.
BTW, if anyone taped the game, you can see what I described above without the all 22 film since the real time game camera was on the same side of the field.
Jack basically filtered it for whatever reason.
Jack
On the TV screen, live, it looked to me like FG was open and CK did look his way. If there were a defender starting to close in, CK could have used his rocket arm and pass to the outside (sideline) end of FG’s body. That way, at worse, it is incomplete and no chance for an Int.
Judging by how FG made a beauty of a snag on the same drive where CK fumbled twice (and FG saved the Niners) on that TD drive, I’m betting FG makes the catch and turns upfield for at least a few YAC.
He looked at him two while he was going to the flat, the first time Gore had his back to him so he pulled it down, the next time he looked Gore still wasn’t looking because he was turning up field.
Once he turns up field he settles down at the 1st down marker. He is pretty open there for a second, but Kaepernick is looking downfield.
There is no doubt that Gore is open, I am not trying to show that he wasn’t. The problem is that each time Kaepernick looked to him he was not in position to make a catch
Jack
I dont’ have the game anymore on DVR, or the 22 film, so I can’t take another look at it.
But when I re-watched the game, I rewound that play a bunch of times, and it looked to me like everything was in place for CK to make the throw (FG looking, passing lane, no rush getting to him, CK seeing him). That is all I can say.
DS,
It’s no big deal. Click on the link to my blog and you can see a still picture of it where Kaep is looking to Gore, but he has his back to him.
Jack,
Your analysis was incorrect. FG looked back twice and each time he was open – CK didn’t pull the trigger just as I described above in this comment thread. Why not show the progression by adding 5-6 more screen shots of the play starting right after the snap when FG first looks back at the 9er 48 yd line??
Anyone that recorded the game can see the progression as I described it. The can even stop it frame by frame using a dvr!
Jack,
let me save you some time. In the alternate universe that DS lives in, DS is never wrong…….
Nice shots by the way.
Bay, in this case, Jack was incorrect. There is no way you can see a 3-5 second play with one screen shot. Leaving out key screen shots is his way of being biases. It was not a comprehensive analysis by any means.
Why don’t you cry to Grant about how your players have been insulted? Even better how you won’t be following the team any longer if Smith continues to be average? Or my personal favourite, how Harbaugh needs to game plan against the potential boo birds at Candlestick in case Alex plays terrible.
What a joke!
http://ninerchatter.blogspot.com/2012/11/you-make-call.html
As the title says, you make the call.
Jack
That pass to VD was the one I was referring to a few days ago. It demonstrated good pocket presence, unfortunately the pass was off target.
Good job Hammer.
Obviously, CK came in cold with probably one intention; ‘Don’t mess up!’
The overhead views are entirely different from the QB’ perspective on the field, but a missed opportunity (K.Williams) should not be in any NFL QB’ resume, whether starter or backup, period!
CK will hopefully learn from this going forward.
Excellent analysis.
Did you take a detailed look at the second fake punt? Was there anything we may have missed from the network coverage? I still find it hard to believe the Niners ST fell for a fake punt twice in a single game.
Rick,
They had their regular return personnel in there, and once Amendola went in motion everyone but the outside man on the right side of the 49ers’ formation chased him.
I also find it hard to believe they weren’t prepared. They should have been in a “safe” return setup with the defense in and Ginn replacing either Goldson or Whitner deep. Then you play regular D, and Ginn can just fair catch it. That would almost eliminate the possibility of that play having been successful.
Jack,
Very nice analysis. I do have a question. On both the incomplete to VD and the first play of the second OT drive, was Kaep slow in starting his throwing motion? That is what it looked like to me on the VD pass – that had he been able to get the ball out quicker, he would have been able to get it to VD on time.
JPN,
Thank you. Not from what I saw. On the pass to Davis he was trying to throw him open. As you can see Davis was well covered, but Kaepernick was trying to fit it in.
On the Gore play, he is ready to throw it to him, but Gore had turned his back, and was about to turn it upfield. That would have been the next picture in the sequence, but by that point the LB is gaining ground.
Alex Smith’s #1 overall draft pick comparables list (past 20 years).
Year Player Position–Years Played-Pro Bowls
2012 Andrew Luck QB 0 0
2011 Cam Newton QB 1 1
2010 Sam Bradford QB 2 0
2009 Matthew Stafford QB 3 1 (Alternate)
2008 Jake Long OT 4 4
2007 JaMarcus Russell QB 3 0
2006 Mario Williams DE 6 2
2005 Alex Smith QB 7 0
2004 Eli Manning QB 8 2
2003 Carson Palmer QB 9 2
2002 David Carr QB 10 0
2001 Michael Vick QB 9 4
2000 Courtney Brown DE 7 0
1999 Tim Couch QB 6 0
1998 Peyton Manning QB 14 11
1997 Orlando Pace OT 12 7
1996 Keyshawn Johnson WR 11 4
1995 Ki-Jana Carter RB 8 0
1994 Dan Wilkinson DT 13 0
1993 Drew Bledsoe QB 14 4
1992 Steve Emtman DT 8 0
Busts: Steve Emtman, Ki-Jana Carter, Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, David Carr and JaMarcus Russell.
TBD: Alex Smith and Cam Newton.
Carr wasn’t a bust. He actually put up some decent numbers while playing behind the worst offensive line in football. The guy took a beating and continued to attempt to sit in the pocket and deliver the ball.
The only other offensive line that I consider worse than Carr’s was the one that Jeff George initially played behind.
Bay – I respectfully disagree, part of the reason Carr got sacked so much was because he had horrible pocket awareness and held onto the ball too long.
When you draft a QB #1 overall you are expecting a “sure thing” and Carr was no “sure thing.” 10 years and zero pro-bowls. Not a complete bust but a bust.
Look what Luck and RG3 are doing on average teams.
Crab 15, I respectfully disagree in that no draft pick, wether its 1st overall or Mr. Irrelevant, is ever a “sure thing”.
I said you expect a “sure thing” when you draft a QB #1 overall, it’s not a guarantee but if you’re NOT expecting a “sure thing” with that pick than you should trade the pick.
No first overall pick should be a career backup, in any sport. If they are, they are considered a bust to me.
Good point Crab15, my point is nothing in the draft is ever a sure thing.
FDM – I agree bro……..TGIF!!!!