People are criticizing Colin Kaepernick, saying he really isn’t any different than Alex Smith, whose performance until the concussion was pretty darn good and whose QB rating was in the top 5 of the league, and, frankly, there are valid points there.
Even though Kaepernick is a different player with a different skill set than Smith, why are the performances so similar on the field?
In other words, by going to Kaepernick even though Smith passed the concussion tests, what has the 49er offense gained on the field in terms of results and points?
It seems to me that although Kaepernick appears to be a more explosive player both with legs and a rocket for an arm, if you took the numbers off the jerseys, would you be able to tell the difference between the two based upon the productivity and style of offensive play the Niners are running?
Smith ran the spread option at Utah for Urban Meyer and has shown the capability to make the same “give it” or “keep it” reads, although he is not as fast as Kaepernick. And are the Niners really utilizing Kaepernick’s superior arm and his deep ball ability on normal downs and distances with regular personnel on the field?
Other than Jim Harbaugh playing Kaepernick because that was Harbaugh’s personal choice, after 4-plus weeks, what have the Niners gained with on the field productivity?
Are sacks down; TD passes up; completion percentage higher; QB yardage on the ground better; scoring production up; 3rd down conversion percentage improved; red zone productivity improved, etc.?
Here are some statistical comparisons between the two QBs. I did not calculate the 24-24 tie game with the Rams into this equation because both QBs played, making it an impossible game to factor into the following data.
Also, all points in each game are factored into the equation, including safeties and defensive scores.
Smith has 8 games and Kaepernick has 4 games where they were the starters and played the entire game, and although the totals are different, the percentages can be compared.
Smith has had 8 complete starts and the Niners have scored 189 points when he was the starter for a per game average of 23.62.
In Kaepernick’s 4 starts, the Niners have scored 103 points for a per game average of 25.75.
Smith had scores on 14 of 23 red zone opportunities for 60.8%.
Kaepernick has had 8 scores in 17 red zone opportunities for 47%.
Smith had 88 offensive series in 8 games for a per game average of 11 drives.
Kaepernick has had 44 offensive series for a per game average of 11 drives.
Smith had 21 TDs for a TD % of 23.8% and 2.625 TDs per game.
Kaepernick has had 11 TDs for a TD % of 36.3% and 2.75 TDs per game.
Smith had 14 field goals for a 1.75 field goals per game average.
Kaepernick has had 8 field goalss for a 2.0 field goals per game average.
As starters, both QBs are benefitting from 11 series per game; Kaepernick is scoring 2.13 more points per game; Smith’s red zone productivity is 13.8% better than Kaepernick’s.
Kaepernick is averaging 0.125 more TDs per game and 0.25 more field goals per game.
The difference between the two QBs is microscopic. It seems Harbaugh’s preference is the only reason Kaepernick is playing QB now that Smith is concussion free, because all of the skills that Kaepernick is supposed to have that are better than Smith seemingly have not been converted into points and productivity.
I guess one can say that a coaches’ perception eventually becomes reality in that if Harbaugh believes Kaepernick is a better talent and the guy to lead them to the Super Bowl in New Oleans, it eventually becomes reality, or at least it better, because if not, the what-if game will be played in the media and in the locker room ad naseum.
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I think the fact that they’re so similar and Kap has only had 4 career starts says a lot. If he’s doing just as good if not just a little bit better with only 4 career starts under his belt… he should definitely be the starter.
Well said! I wish people acknowledge the experience factor when comparing the two.
Both of these are valid points and also consider there have been more penalties so far with the transition to Kap. A lot of big plays have come back due to holding. Not only that but a couple catchable balls have been dropped.
I think what is also unnoted here is that Akers has missed what is it 4 fgs while Kaepernick has started compared to 1 with Smith? I’m not positive on those numbers so if someone could correct them I’d appreciate it.
Nobody seems to take into account the fact that Colin is giving the 49ers the Spark they need to be effective against good defenses. Alex Smith just isnt an exciting player to watch. He isnt a game changer. Colin gives the offense so many different options and can make the big plays, the must have plays and the incredible plays. How many times have you seen Smith in the top 10 on sports center? How many deep throws are completed by Smith? I mean come on. I could go out in a game and throw 20 5 yard or shorter passes and complete 70 percent and im awful at throwing.
When comparing the QBs, you *should* include only points by the offense… Doing so would flip the final result, I think.
I agree, why is Grant including the points scored by the defense to make Kap look good.
oh yea I forgot Grant is biased.
If you only use points by the QB Alex Smith loses 10 of his wins. Last season Tedd Ginn single handedly beat Seattle. Akers won another 6 games and the Defense won 3.
So, I think it all evens out in the wash.
@ matt:
Smh.
I won’t go into your failure to grasp the basic concept because I don’t know whether you are unwilling to grasp it or simply unable, but I do have to respond to this particular piece of made up b/s nonsense:
Last season Tedd Ginn single handedly beat Seattle.
While Ginn certainly helped seal the victory, the 49ers were winning 19-17 before he scored his TDs.
I’m sorry you feel that way Claude.
Alex Smith in the Seattle game threw for 124 yards. He had 0 passing TDS and 1 rushing TD. Akers hit 4 field goals and Ted Ginn ran back two tds.
Then I move to the Bengals game. Alex Smith 0 tds. Hunter and Aker are the only scorers in the game. Akers 2 FGs, Hunter 1 td.
In detroit, Alex Smith has 1 td 1 int. Akers hits 3 field goals and outscores Smith again.
I give Justin Smith on the defense the win in Philly and in NY. In Philly he caused the fumble while Philly was in field goal range. In NY, he stopped the pass in the endzone on 4th down. In the playoffs, the defense helped SF beat NO by causing 5 to’s I believe.
The Cleveland game, Alex Smith has 177 yards 1 td. Akers hits 2 fgs.
Then in Washington Alex Smith has 1 td. Akers hits 4 fgs.
Against NY, Alex Smith has 1 td. Akers hits 4 fgs.
Against Seattle the second time, Alex Smith 0 tds. Akers 4-5 fgs.
2012
In Greenbay, Alex Smith 2 tds. Akers 3 fgs. The difference in the score.
kaepernick has relied on Akers 2 times to win the game. 2 times Akers has fallen short.
I do stand correct though that Alex Smith only loses 7 games (2011-2012) if it weren’t for Akers not 10. My apologises for the exageration.
@matt:
Congratulations on mastering irrelevant facts.
1. None of what you posted supports your Ted Ginn statement.
2. Unless I am mistaken, the issue in this particular thread was whether the 2012 49ers’ offense is scoring more or fewer points/game since the QB switch. Stats from 2011 games wouldn’t seem to be particularly relevant to that issue.
You are free, however, to explain the drop off in 2012 scoring by pointing to Akers’ misses as that would be relevant to the discussion. Then again, pointing out contextual facts like that is often derided as “excuse-making” around here.
But you know that because you have been here for 5+ years, right?
@ Matt. Bravo! So many posters here take personal shots when they disagree with what’s said. I have yet to see you take a personal shot back.
While I don’t agree I do respect the maturity and respect you display.
Claude, I believe we are refering to two different posts.
My initial post was:
If you only use points by the QB Alex Smith loses 10 of his wins.
The argument to that is that Colin Kaepernick has only relied on supporting casts 2 times and both times has been let down. I felt it was relative to the thread title when you compare the statistics of both players.
I assumed, perhaps incorrectly, that you took offense to that assertion. So, I followed it up with the games I believe showed Alex Smith himself didn’t score enough points to win. His passing numbers and his TDs weren’t big enough factors to win the game.
It’s my opinion that Kaepernick is a bigger part of SF’s success and failure.
Finally, Yes, I have been here five years. You might recognize the name “Medic One”. I dropped the medic handle because I didn’t want my bias opinions or assertions to reflect in a negative manner on a profession that is about sacrifice and decision making. I still use the same email address and have the same picture. So, yes, it’s been 5 years.
Nice Job Matt,
my favorite part is where you list that Kaepernick twice relied on his supporting cast ( team ) and they failed to come through.
Last year the reason we went so far is that Smith protected the ball, and the supporting cast reliably came through game after game.
chris
Matt in his first post without reason/provocation attacked myself and prime. In my first post by the way on this blog I didn’t attack anybody.
Matt – When I am comparing the points, I don’t differentiate like that. Akers has sucked pretty much all year after his record tying FG in game 1. How many points has each scored in the first half of games?
That is relevant because it tells us if the Niners have control of the game from the start or not. That tells me how much each has mastered the art of game management which is 70% of the job.
AS in a bunch of games this year got the Niners off to a hot start and had the Niners leading at half. Then we go into cruise control and let our running game suck the time off the clock the second half while I D takes advantage of the lead given to them and just destroys the opposing team in the second half.
With CK, our halftime points have been pathetic. So we aren’t dominating the other team at all. I’d rather have complete domination over a team and score fewer points overall than have the game in question like last Sunday’s until the last 5 minutes and score more points.
The only game CK has gotten the dominating first half performance is the Chicago one. Since then, he has struggled to move the ball and score points in the first half. Making the 2nd half a nail biter. Keep in mind if the game is still in question, the team will have to throw more and can’t just run the entire 2nd half. Thus CK has better stats in some things. That doesn’t make him a better QB.
Matt,
I recognize your avatar and I do remember you as Medic one. I hope business is bad as I remember your profession. Your style hasnt changed. Unbiased and always on point. Hope all is well and very good post. Dont let claude get under your skin. Hes a hard core Smith fan and they are all struggling with the benching. He’ll be gone next year when Smith leaves.
@ matt:
Perhaps it was just a misunderstanding. Your initial comment was in response to fl1p3′s comment. I read fl1p3′s comment as an assertion that to meaningfully compare the offense’s scoring before and after the QB switch, one had to remove defensive TDs from the comparison. I agree with that assertion, unless someone can make a meaningful argument for the proposition that Kaepernick deserves credit for the defensive TDs.
With that as context, I read your comment as a rejection of fl1p3′s assertion. If I got that wrong, I apologize.
Sorry for not recognizing you as Medic One. By the way, I never thought that any of your comments under that name reflected poorly on your profession.
… which stands in sharp contrast to the loss of respect I would have for a$$clowns if jordan were to post under the name 23a$$clown.
He also leaves out the interception to TD ratio. A very important stat. Also, how many different receivers are catching passes now vs.
Smith. I can tell you it is obvious that Vernon Davis is a missing number with kap at QB at our current time. That concerns me.
First off Id like to point out the fact that Vernon Davis likes Alex Smith better for some reason. He would be targeted alot more by Colin if he actually caught the balls thrown to him. Any player at any time can lose their job to a better player. They are pros. Its a job. When your number is called to go in, you play to your best capability. Smith complains alot about losing his job. You never hear Colin complain at the end of games. He takes responsibility for all the things that go wrong and he gives all the credit to his team. Thats what a QB is supposed to do. Sure it sucks for Smith, but he should suck it up. He has a chance to win a ring and will be starting on another team next year. Colin is faster, stronger, works harder, and once the center figures out how to snap the ball (not saying Colin wasnt to blame for one or two) Colin will get into the 300+ yds per game and will have more TDs.
I believe the game vs the Patriots has brought this argument to an end. Alex Smith could not have won that game and will not be starting another game this year. Colin is the real deal.
Sam,
+1. It should but it won’t end until Smith leaves town. Or WHEN Kap and the Niners win the super bowl.
Without question and I believe that is why Mr. Kaepernick has the keys. Intangible athletic prowess while at the same time able to manage almost as well as Alex Smith.
This will be Kap’s first real test. He has played New Orleans which is not a great team this year, Chicago who is average, Miami who is below average and 1 1/2 games aginst the Rams. Kap will be forced to score points this week to keep up with the 23 to 27 points the Patriots will score on us. If Kap can score more than 27 we will win. If he can’t we will lose. In this type of game, I have more confidence in Smith not to lose the game, than I do Kap to win the game. We will see how it goes this week. I am no Harbaugh, so I will not say he made a mistake. I will only say, that in my mind the change would not have come till next year.
This just opens Harbaugh up to more questions. Did he expect there to be a difference? If he didn’t expect there to be a difference then again the main question must be asked; why switch from a winning QB in the middle of a Super Bowl run season? If he didn’t expect a big change then why not wait? And if he did expect a difference which would make sense since he benched a winning QB, why haven’t we seen it?
True true, He had to have expected there to be a difference or else why make the switch. However I agree with what others have said: You have to look towards the future and if you can give your potential QB of the future meaningful PT, get his sea legs under him, without a drop-off in QB performance why wouldn’t’ you?
Because even though they are good coaches they don’t have crystal balls, although Harbaugh’s might be steel. But my point is, if you are trying to win the race and you’re in the front of the pack you don’t pull in for a pit and try that new experimental engine you’ve been playing with. You win the race with what got you to the front and then you test the engine out next year.
Yeah, but next year will be a race too.
They must have had more insight into how things would play out than we do. They might have had a pretty good idea based on camp and practices that CK would be able to perform at about this level.
If they had such a good idea about him they would have started the season with him.
lol crystal balls
JH always said he was comfortable with with all 3 QBs being starting caliber… maybe he isn’t always as full of sheet as we think.
But look at what CK did in his first start… He goes out there and blows the doors off the bears. How do you go back to Alex after that? If CK gets injured, Alex will come right back and if he does well, he’ll probably remain the starter. (ripping of straight from MM…) JH has shown a tendency of letting guys lose their job to injury, but only once benched somone for performance (chilo). It makes sense to me
so in that vein, Alex lost in job to injury despite not having done anything to lose his job…. and CK hasn’t yet gotten injured or done anything to lose his job.
Coffee I disagree with you. I believe Harbaugh was happy with the lead in the NFL that Alex Smith and the team gave him. It afforded him the flexibility to play Kaepernick with little detriment to the team.
It also allowed his team to build confidence in the complexities of the playbook. It is complex for more than just the QB.
Finally, it’s really no different than putting the backup in when the team has a lead so that he can get some reps. The change was made at arguably the easiest part of the schedule. It’s my opinion that this was a win win situation for the team moving forward.
As we’ve all seen, there really isn’t a drop off between Smith and Kaepernick, so it was a convenient time to see what you have in your second year player. They are very close to hitting on all cylinders on offense. Some key drops and some key penalties are all they need to fix to really explode.
and to address the last question, I think we all may have been underestimating the impact that scheme and playcalling had/has on our Offense’s productivity. Those things appear to be more important (bigger factors) than which of the two is starting at QB.
Good analysis. Grant, good of you to point out that CK’s average TDs per game include 2 (i think) defensive TDs during his 4 games, so Alex wins that stat as well if those are factored in. That would put CK’s TD/game at 2.25. Were there any defensive TD’s during Alex’s starts? I don’t remember any.
Does this mean that JH made the wrong decision? I don’t know and i don’t think so. There is no way of knowing how alex would have played in the games he didnt’ play in. Some next level (stuff) would factor in the strength of the opponents defense, or average rank of defense faced.
Is there a stat for excitement? (just kidding) because CK would win that hands down.
Its all coaching preference. There are no points awarded for style, but JH must believe that CK gives him more options. Either way, this NE game and the SEA game will be tough, and the whole organization better bring their A game.
There was a defensive TD in the Jets game as well as a Kaepernick rushing TD. CK’s touchdown should probably count for Smith though – Smith was running the team at that point.
Finally a fair assessment. Now the backlash from the haters pretending they know what JH is thinking and this ceiling they can potentially measure.
It will start with Jack pretending he knows all, then Lameareafanatic thinking he is Dr.Phil reading the minds of management and finally 23hater, Neal and Cal boy just babbling garbage no one can understand.
Cue the count down….3, 2, 1……
Hey look at that. The scumbag that welches on bets thinks this is a fair assessment….
Are you sad someone on here is finally telling it like it is? That there is no difference between the QB’s in this style offense.
Why don’t you just come to the conclusion that the 49ers are a running, defensive orientated team. You prefer arena league type football so save your bad breath and move on to another team Jim!
Grant are the points per game offensive points or total points if they are total points could you tell me how many offensive points per game each is scoring. Thanks
Coach: If you calculate Grant’s way, Smith has 182 offensive points for an average of 22.8. Kaep has 87 points for an average of 21.8.
Taking all time played, Smith has 189 offensive points in 8.4 games for an average of 21.8. Kaep has 104 offensive points in 5.1 games (.85 games in the first Rams game and 1.25 in the second) for an average of 20.4.
Either way, Smith has been a little better.
But ck runs faster because he holds the ball out and uses his arms more, therefore making him faster. Duh!
It’s no secret that even with the eyeball test they are close. But CK has only started four games and is beating a 7 year career and matching a 1 and a half year season. The eyes tell you that ck makes out and seem throws Alex can’t. Ck runs like Alex can’t. And ck can match the play smith has been doing for a year and a half. Some on here said he couldn’t. Eh emmm.
So if the blame is on roman not “opening it up” then if Roman decided too. Which would you take? I think Harbaugh chose who he thinks the better qb is. It was a brutal way to do it, but it was going to be done eventually. In NO way did Smith starting guarantee the success they had last season. Lets remember Smith didn’t play well against some good defenses this season.
I hope this can all go away finally and this blog can move on to another story. If you really think about it. It’s ridiculous arguing about a back up qb.
“It’s ridiculous arguing about a back up qb.”
The anit-Smith group have been arguing about the backup qb for years. Quite ridiculous.
You incorrectly factored points scored by the defense to Kaepernick. Nice try though.
The point i’ve been trying to make the last 10 days or so is that i believe AS is a better QB than CK in a conservative run first throw the under pattern type offense and that seems to be the mold they are forcing CK into.
I strongly believe that CK has better potential than AS if he were allowed to play to his strengths. CK’s running ability is the wild card but keeping him reined just does’nt make sense to me. I say either let CK be CK or i do’nt know why they made the change.
I think your assessment is correct Coach. CK has done really well but it seems like he’s on the same short leash as Smith. If the 49ers are going to stay super conservative then they may as well put Smith back I there.
What we don’t know are the future plans and the mood in the locker room. If the team is planning to move to Kaepernick (which appears to be the case) and the players are in agreement then they should stick with the youngster as long as there isn’t a drop in production. They can always bring Smith off of the bench if CK stumbles.
I think the functioning of the offense indicates that you both are correct: if we are going to run the same offense, Smith is the better choice.
However, the numbers and the eyeball test both indicate that Kaep is the future. And, eventually he may be able to really make this conservative offense go. With more experience, he should read the defenses better pre-snap and move through his progressions faster. He already gets a good amount of yardage (on average) out of the plays. The better reads should make the O more consistent.
One thing I really like about Kaep is that when he is evading pass rushers, he keeps looking to pass. As he gains experience, this could prove to be a deadly asset because of the amount of time it requires DB’s to try to cover.
Great posts from each of you.
Numbers don’t tell the whole story. See the type of passes Kap makes and the ease and speed with which the ball gets there.
His accuracy is pretty good as well.
Absolutely not a knock on Alex but Kap brings some electricity on the field.
So a QB that has had a total of 4 starts is playing just as well a a QB who has had over 60 starts? And the coach wants to keep going with this? The insanity!
elMaginator,
Kap isn’t playing as well as Smith. Smith has better numbers and an overall better QB raiting than Kap. Kap had one good game against Chicago, and had a losing game against the Saints (if the defense doesn’t score two TD’s). He struggled against the the Rams and lost, and he only played good agaisnt the Dolphins. His last two games were against bad teams and he didn’t play great. He played OK. We will get a better look at Kap this week. Don’t get me wrong, I am a fan of Kap and I know he is the future of our team. IMHO the future of our team should have started in Sept. of 2013 and not in the middle of a possible Super Bowl run.
Grant, Calculate the points/game while also taking away the defensive touchdowns. Remember two of our touchdowns versus the Saints were on defense and had nothing to do with Kaepernick.
Also, Can you look up how many timeouts the niners have wasted in the 4 games to save the Niners from a delay of game and compare that with the number of timeouts wasted to prevent a delay of game while Smith started 8 games?
That’s going to kill us in the playoffs.
Jason,
This is not pee wee league football. Do you really believe that we are not going to have the timeout situation adressed better by the time the post season starts. However, don’t forget that Smith burned just as many timeouts this year in games as recent as the 1st Seattle game. It happens for a number of reasons. If we’re ahead 7-14 points late in a game, timeouts won’t matter. Like in the Miami game.
Well, we obviously haven’t gotten it (play clock management) addressed through 14 weeks and pre-season, so……I’d say there’s reason to be concerned about play clock management going into the playoffs.
If they play well, however, it’s not really an issue. Play well, and they can win it all.
However, don’t forget that Smith burned just as many timeouts this year
Any chance you’re going to back that up? Of course not.
Jordan, So I guess they haven’t been trying to win the last four games then? Each of these games matters for playoff positioning etc.
Don’t you think they shouldn’t have waited four games to get this done. Why didn’t we see this problem with Alex at QB? Maybe having a “game manager” wasn’t so bad.
23jordan,
It isn’t just timeouts. We are on a young QB learning curve with Kap that we were not with Smith. Kap running out of bounds and stopping the clock in the Rams game which helped give the Rams time to come back and tie the game. Kap being a bonehead and getting intentional grounding fromt he endzone against the Rams. Don’t get me wrong, I understand Kap has tons of potential and he is the future of the Niners but we will now have to go through games with plays like I mentioned above while he learns the game. I hope Kap doesn’t cost us any more games as we can’t afford to lose any more. I am sure Alex would not have made those same mistakes. Alex has proven to be a very smart football player and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Sure, he might not make the big run that Kap can but Smith won’t cost us the game. Kap helped us lose the Ram game (Akers was also a problem) and he didn’t play good enough to beat the saints either if you take away the two defensive TDs Kap and his offense scored 17 points. The Saints might have won that game too. Kap has been good so far, nothing better and nothing worse.
About the Timeouts…
It only matters in the 2nd half. The first half timeout situation doesn’t much matter.
Until you get the ball with a minute left in the 1st half on your own 20 yard line. So…..yes the first half timeout situation does matter.
Angus,
it’s just more BS. Of course time outs matter in the first half….
Stick to cricket BS.
Games almost always come down in the 4th. John Madden told his QB’s not to take the timeout in the 2nd half but in the 1st. There must be a reason why. And it is the one above.
You disagree, you disagree with the HOF HC. Not me for relaying it. Listen to theannouncers and they say the same thing as well. Timeouts in the 2nd half are lifesavers much more so than the 1st half.
BS first off show us the link I don’t believe it. Madden never said that. It’s just more BS.
Secondly, you are going to quote a coach that retired over 30 years ago? Think the game has changed much in the last 30 years?
bay
How poor is your life where you do nothing but be an asshole all the time? What makes you happy being as you are?
DS, Bay is just having those once a month moments.
For some reason he thinks he deserves a pat on the back regarding CK.
Now he is realizing that nothing in the offense has changed. No bombs, no passing TD’s and last place in his fantasy league!
DS – Nevermind
Jason: what makes you think that the faults you cited above will still be happening come playoff time?
Grosse, I can only go by what I see. What makes you think these problems won’t be happening come playoff time when through four games the problems are the only consistent thing.
I didn’t say these problems won’t be there. I was just wondering why you thought they would persist. Obviously the team will work on the issue.
Grant,
quick question. In AS’s starts are you giving the benefit of CK’s scores to AS? Especially since AS wasn’t even on the field and it was actually CK that scored those points? Just curious.
Actually doesn’t matter. I know you are going for blog hits, but AS is the backup with no chance of seeing the field unless there is an injury. Why even bring up the discussion?
@BAY like i posted earlier. There were those last year who were critical of AS even though there was no chance of his being benched last year, they just wanted to express their feeling. So this year even though i do’nt think theres a chance CK will be benched there will be those who want to express their feeling. Its all good.
Bay,
It’s a fair discussion. The numbers are about the same. However, football people watch the play on the field. The numbers can be manipulated. Making the comparison is impossible. All I know is that Kap is better and he is the future. we have to let the Smithers complain much like we did. The difference is, our complaints were validated by the change in QB’s. Theirs fly back into their face. We are moving forward, not going back to Smith. That ship has sailed and is over on the sidelines wearing a baseball cap!
“The numbers can be manipulated. ”
Did you really say that? I can’t believe you just said that!
Montana,
Im not big on arguing numbers. I just know what I see on the field. Ive never thought Smith was good enough. Ive alway maintained that. As I said earlier, the numbers may be close but I know what im seeing on fhe field.
23jorgan,
When did Alex Smith lose to the Rams last year? When Alex left the Ram game for his injury he had just drove the team down the field for a TD. It was CK who only could get a tie out of that game and it was CK who got the loss to the Rams two weeks ago. Smith didn’t lose to the Rams. Also, Smith beat the Saints last year in the playoffs. It was the offense and Smiths great run that won that game. Kap only scored 17 points against the Saints this year and if not for our great defense scoring two TD’s we might have lost. I do agree CK is the future and will be a better QB. It just isn’t this year. AS should have stayed for this year and Kap should have taken over next year. No one hurt that way, and no issues.
“quick question. In AS’s starts are you giving the benefit of CK’s scores to AS? Especially since AS wasn’t even on the field and it was actually CK that scored those points?” Bayareafanatic
That wouldn’t make sense. What is being compared is what has actually happened this season under the 2 different QB’s, and in the games Smith has started there have been some contributions from Kaep.
You asked for a comparison of their passer ratings: Smith’s is better. You asked for a comparison of points per game: Smith starting has produced 1-2 more per game. You have whined about Smith’s production in the Red Zone, but Smith has been better this year. Smith clearly gets the RB’s going better.
I don’t think we should give up those advantages this year because Kaep is the future. We have a division to win over the next two weeks.
Imagine if Smith started and produced what he has produced over the course of 8+ games, only with the Kaep packages being more extensive. The coaches now know what plays Kaep executes best. Maybe he could be brought in on 3rd and 3+.
Another thought: if the starter is having a bad day in a win or go home game, which QB would be likely to be more effective coming off the bench?
This may be a bit hard for you to digest, but neither Old Coach nor MSClemons nor I can be accurately characterized as Smithers. We’re Niner fans with thoughts about what we’ve seen over the past 13 games and how what we’ve seen can be best used to benefit our team.
Grosse,
did I call you a Smither? This may be difficult for you to digest, but I don’t care if you like Alex Smith or Joseph Smith. ( Couldn’t resist, I just saw The Book of Mormon )
Never called you a Smither, and prefer not to have this conversation. We have a new QB now. I hope he helps kick the Patriots ass….
@drsgrosse:
That’s a commendable comment, but logic, reason and fact hold no interest for bay and jordan. Those things only get in the way of their strongly-held uninformed opinions. Given the way they both avoid those things at all costs, I would have to say that logic, reason and fact are like kryptonite to them.
As normal football comments are to you Claude. Got a thought on the game this weekend? Or are you going to just pick through posts some more?
I’m sorry that being retired left a void in your life Claude. And if i can provide some form of enjoyment for you by providing the opportunity to debate, then by all means pick through my stuff.
Have I posted something that isn’t factual? Your friend BS is vomiting all over himself with non factual information that could keep you quite busy if you’d like.
Drs,
So does this test get tougher because we have Kap at qb instead of Smith? Please tell me how Smith helps the running game more. Maybe you meant to say Kap. The numbers dont tell the story. Watch tbe QBs perform. Well I guess you can’t do that because alex wont be playing anymore.
Jordan: I don’t know why the running backs have done better in the games Smith has started. I am guessing that Smith is better at reading the defenses pre-snap.
I have been very clear that Kaep is better at throwing the ball, at moving around behind the line during plays and at running. That is what we all can see by watching Kaep play.
However, the RB’s get 5.6 per carry with Smith and only 4.2 with Kaep. Those numbers tell a story. Kaep seems to be improving those numbers…hope it continues.
This is how I read into all this. You have QB A and QB B. QB A is a couple of years older, mastered the offense and has reached his ceiling in performance. QB B is in his first few starts, has more viewable talent (arm strength, speed, etc), and has nearly the same wonderlic score as QB A. This means they are about equal in intelligence. If you were told that after four games there would be statically almost no difference between the two QBs who would you start? In my opinion I would start the young guy. If he is doing no worse than the other guy and has a much more ceiling, why wouldn’t you start him? You get the same team now and as the QB B improves so will your team. How much better will the 49ers be next year with the experience Kaep is getting now? I know we have a chance this year to win it all but he’s getting the same production as Alex. It would be almost stupid to go with Alex now since Kaep is playing just as good as he was. You are getting priceless experience for your future QB while maintaining the usual with your current team. My expectations haven’t changed for this season with either QB starting but I am already excited about next year and the possibilities the offense can reach with Kaep and the other offensive weapons. This excitement wouldn’t be there if AS was still starting.
Dude,
except Kap isn’t really playing as well as Smith. Smith QB raiting is higher. Smith didn’t lose to the Rams, Kap did. The other thing and very important stat not being used by the writer of the above article is TD’s vs. Int. Smith has a better raiting than Kap there as well. Kap’s numbers are close to Smiths and Kap does bring some athletic abilities that Smith does not. However, Smith brings smarts and experience that Kap doesn’t. Smith would not have made the mistakes in the Rams game to help keep the Rams in it. Smith would not have ranout of bounds and stopped the clock for the Rams. Smith would not have gotten the intentional grounding in the endzone Kap got. Kap is making mistakes that young QB’s make, I understand that. If you going to go with growing pains you do that from the begging of they year. Not 11 games into the season in the middle of a playoff/superbowl run.
Grant,
God read. However, I know exactly what I am seeing on the field. No, there isnt a spike in points. What I like is that Kap has had 4 STARTS! He has had 4 weeks of 1st team reps. The teams we played had solid defenses and the Saints were red hot and have one of the loudest stadiums in the league.
Kap is still making adjust,ment and still learning. The fact that he’s doing no worse than Smith and has the potential to do even more is what excites me. We know Smith can’t scramble for 50 yards on any given play. Why, because he’s never done it in 72 games. How many 25 yard deep outs has Smith thrown in his career?
Kap hasn’t had the benefit of playing the Buffalo Bills or the New York Jets. He hasn’t had a chance to play the Arizona Cardinals. He’s played stiffer defenses and played just as good if not better than Smith.
My last point is that we all know that Kap should be undefeated both as a starter and in the game we tied. Akers missed a 41 yard field goal against the Rams. Guess how many of those he missed last year??? Delaney Walker drops the easiest throw that he’s gotten from Kap in 5 games. Kap’s thrown Delaney some bullets and Walker has caught everything evcept that pass. His only drop from Kap. That pass was a perfect touch pass and he dropped it. That was the play of the game! Kap atoned fr the bad pitch.
Kap has done nothing wrong that any other QB doesn’t do in this league. They make mistakes. However, can they come bac from them and still make plays to win games. Andrew luck throws 2 picks a game sometimes. But he throws 3 touchdowns an they still win.
JUST MAKE UP FOR YOUR MISTAKES! Kap has done that in each game.
GOOD Read***
Sounds like someone is crying like a baby not reading what he wants to hear. So sad!
True times 5
Prime,
i like the read from Grant. The bottom line is, your boyfiem=nd is on the bench. Just like I told you he would be. His career is over in SF and you are heartbroken and waiting for Kap to lose a playof game so you can say your boyfriend wouldv’e won it. It’s not going to happen that way. You might want to get with the program or start packing for Kansas City!
Yours was a good read as well
Thanks Dude! Appreciate it.
23jordan,
I will not agrue with you too much cause it is only opinion on our parts. The stats are still in Smiths favor over all. With that said, Kap lost the Rams game, period. It is Kaps fault that he gave the Rams two points and he gave the Rams a timeout that the Rams needed to win tie the game and force overtime. It was Kap who got a 1st down late in the game and then ran out of bounds instead of sliding in bounds to keep the clock running or force the Rams to use their last timeout. If either of those two things had happend, the Rams would not have been able to drive down the field and kick the tying field goal. The Ram game is all on Kaps shoulders. Sure missed field goals kept us from getting more points. But we had enough points to win if Kap doesn’t make those two bone headed playes in the Rams game.
Also, the Rams and the Saints do not have good defenses. The Saints are one of the worst run defenses in the leauge. Chicago’s defense has been giving up ponts like crazy the last 4 or 5 games. This week will give us a better understanding of Kap and where he is. If he can play well and or win this week things should start to calm down. However, if he doesn’t play well and we get beat bad or barley lose but Kap throws 2 or 3 Int’s the wagons will begin to circle. As a niner fan I hope that doesn’t happen, we don’t need anymore distraction this season. And that is my biggest point in this debate. There is only a distraction because Harbaugh made a QB change in the middle of a season for no lodgical reason. As you’ve stated, the numbers are the close. So Harbaugh broughtall of this on the Niners for no real good reason. He could have stayed with Smith, we win or lose and Kap takes over next year, Smith is gone and we have our young QB playing.
Lets not forget they both had two big games. However Smith’s were against the Jets and Bills…Kapernicks against the Bears and Saints…(the two touchdown from the defense notwithstanding). Why is Alex a bit better in the Red Zone…ask Delanie Walker…
@Run…Jets and Bills …Bad Bears pretty good but NO defense might be worse than the Bills and the Jets
They had allowed over 400 in every game before us. The Bills have stiffened up since AS put up 300 passing and our RB’s 300 yards rushing.
Old Coach,
Saints defense is only as bad as the offense is good. I’d like to think you’re sharp enough to know that. If Brees didn’t crore 35 for the Saints, they wouldn’t give up 31 on defense. Look at al the Saints game. Most are high scoring games and most are close. Saints at home on defense. Look at those games. We played the Saints when they were peaking. We played Buffalo and the Jets when they were slumping. we played the bears when they lost their QB. He plays offense. Their defense just got riped by Kaps arm. Thats truth.
BS,
They were supposed to “stiffen up” as you call it Duh, It couldn’t have been any worse than giving up 600 yards in total offense!!! Not if the coaches and pkayers wanted to have a job next year. Now do you see why you just need to throw your computer out of the window?
We’ve going to have to start a backup blog on PD.com so you and all the Smithers can post away about the backup QB. We’ll call it the ” 2nd String!” Its for 2nd rate posters with limited football knowledge posting about backup QB’s with a imited skill set! Genius, I know!
Get a life instead of wanting mine 23. Go away.
excellent point, runman. if Walker catches the touchdown in StL, or if interference is called on that deep pass to Moss last week, the stats take a big jump. and that should point out the flaw of this comparison — four games is too small a sample to cite, increasing the significance of a small handful of plays. presenting this kind of comparison after a mere four game sample, especially with the big variable in strength of the opponents, makes me question the qualifications of the scribe who produced it.
If DW actually makes the catch against NY or at least prevents the Int on the pass where AS tried to “throw him open” that game ends with us winning it. NY got the momentum that we held up to that point on that play.
This hypothetical stuff can go on a long time. And more so with AS than with CK.
Grant, if you could have the top player at any position in next years draft who would you take for this team?
Wow Coffee Draft speculation in early Dec Thats the earliest i’ve ever heard it regarding a winning team. That kind of talk is for raiders fans
Not draft speculation if I’m asking about the top player at any position. It’s a hypothetical derived to instigate a conversation about a broader topic.
NT, CB, C in that order, imho.
No love for freakie jean?
Don’t get me wrong, Angus, I like RJF as a (strong) #2, I just don’t know how dominant he’d be if we start him game in and game out. Also, I kinda see him as a utility DLineman – he can fill in at DE, too. A true #1 NT would be a strong addition if/when Isaac leaves after this season.
Grant, you didn’t have to start a poll you could have just answered my question.
How many touchdowns did CK account for in AS’ 8 games?
That’s a great question. I think it’s 2???
Three in games in which he started….
The Red Herring! Ouch!
@ tick: If the issue is to compare offensive scoring in games prior to the switch vs. offensive scoring in games after the switch, then it doesn’t matter.
@jordan: you are correct that tick’s question is a red herring, but I don’t think you understand what that term means.
Lol!
Claude,
Sure I do. I looked it up! Then copiex and pasted it, just like you. Anybody can do it. Does t make one a genius to do so. You’re a lonely dude. Spend your life trying to make yourself right and tellinv others tey are wrong. Lonely existence claude.
@23welcher:
Don’t hate on me for documenting your b/s. If you don’t want to see evidence of your ignorance and dishonesty re-posted on the blog, don’t post so many ignorant comments and lies. Btw, it’s amusing how you try to discredit me for supporting my opinions/arguments with actual facts rather than with made up nonsense like you.
Spend your life trying to make yourself right and tellinv others tey are wrong.
Coming from the guy who desperately writes “I told you so” in every other message, that’s remarkably ironic/hypocritical/pathetically lacking in self awareness.
Lonely existence claude.
Again, that’s funny, coming from the guy who needed to have his son find a date for him.
You are correct about one thing. It doesn’t take a genius to use the term “red herring” correctly. It just takes a person of average intelligence and adequate education.
Of course, you didn’t use the term correctly.
Claude,
Youre a funny guy. Yeah id never. Find a date without my son. Funny, he found his mom for me as well. Yes, you need a hug. Ask BS for one, or maybe Alex. Just like the rest of Smithers here, that bullying was tough to deal with huh. Hopefully its over now. If you ever decide to fight back, it will make you feel better. You can do it. Stand your ground! Bwahahahaha!
Not bad.
But CK faced losing teams in 3/4 games. The announcers even said Miami finds ways to lose. They had lost 4 out of 5 and the Rams had 1 win in their past 6. The Saints had a nuclear meltdown in the off season and are suffering the radiation damage now.
Chicago was on a roll, but the team laid an egg that is still hatching.
AS beat GB in GB. CK couldn’t beat the Rams on the road and if not for 2 Pick 6′s, that NO game likely ends differently.
You didn’t mention scoring by quarters. With AS we got a lead large enough at halftime to basically shut it down in the second half. CK was lucky to be tied in NO at halftime due to Brooks Pick 6, and only managed leads of 7-0 and 6-3 against sub 500 teams.
The next 2 weeks will determine how good CK really is right now.
Also need to account for CK getting 2TD’s vs AS only 1 in 8 games (CK has 2x the non-offensive TD’s in half the games..4 vs 8). Plus a huge – for CK giving the Rams 10 free points with awful unforced play.
I don’t see the NO game ending differently without the pick 6′s. The 9ers would have had the ball in their own territory and easily would have scored both times. You can’t just take away the two pick 6s and say that we wouldn’t have scored. Worst case they get two field goals. Getting the TDs is a bonus. If they did get the two field goals then the long drive in the 3 and into the 4 quarter would have been spead up and they would have played more aggresively. This leads to your point about the 9ers putting on the brakes when AS played cause they were up by a lot. How many times has AS benifited from turnovers? Probably just as much as CK has. You forget that AS was down by 17 before he went out against the Rams so it seems like he has trouble with them like CK does.
Dude
It is debatable what happens without those pick 6′s. But not the score at halftime. CK had just thrown an Int on a pass that should not have been thrown. NO had the ball. It was 14-7. At best that is the halftime score. Maybe Brees gets a FG or even a TD following the Int. Score is 17 or 21-7.
That changes the entire complexion of the 2nd half. Instead of NO going “We got these guys now!” they are going “What the hell! How do we beat these guys?”
To me, that was the play of the game. And without the play of the game, odds are results change.
And AS drove the Niners down the field with blurred vision throwing a perfect dart to MC for the TD to make the score 14-7. Not 17-0 CK was down by only 7. Not 17. And the defense allowed 2 TD’s to start the game. Not the fault of AS or CK.
DS
I agree that the pick was hugh and swung the game in our favor. My point was if you take away the TDs, not the INT’s entirely, the results probably wont be as different as the final score. They probably would have scored after each interception. At worst a field goat each time.
Let’s all agree that we can’t pick the good one QB did against some team and the bad the other QB did against another team. Like AS INT in the red zone against Seattle or his 3 INT’s against the Giants. The truth is they both have performed well in what they are asked to do. It just seams that if asked to do more, CK has the better chance of doing so. We can be down by 17 points and will need a QB that can hit the 20 yard outs with a bullet pass in tight spaces. CK does that better than AS. Right now I think AS avoids the turnovers better and is reading the deffenses better. Hopefully CK will be ready this game but more importantly is that he is ready against Seattle.
Dude
I’m looking for CK to look well against the Pats. The Seattle game…just win. Because that will be the hard one. Plus CK needs to show he can beat teams in our division because he hasn’t yet after 9 quarters of play.
DS, I mean BS,
But Alex can’t score anymore. Because he’s the BACKUP! He wears a baseball cap instead of a helmet. He is a lso a lameduck QB. He has a fake contract for next season. He will NEVER play another down for this team! So why are you on his nutz! Oh, that’s right, you’ve been on them ever since you got on this blog!!
At least he listened to the criticism and took the freaking helmet off on the sidelines. He looked like Gazoo.
Dude,
What makes you think we score after the TD’s? I am just wondering. Cause the CK offense scored a total of 17 points in the entire NO game. I am not as confident as you that we score for sure. But even if we get one TD off of one of the INT’s the score is 24 to 24. Who knows what would have happend. My point is CK played well in only the Chicago game. He has been just average in the other three games
Sando had a good piece on this last week. Smith’s numbers were in decline over his last 4 starts.
Add to it that you are getting better production, even if it is slight from a guy in his first 4 starts compared to a veteran with years of starts and the reasons are easy to see.
Hey Jack,
I have been wanting to ask you a question, and this seems like a good place/time.
From your film reviews, have you noticed whether the tempo of the offense has decreased from the Bears game to the STL and Miami games? And I don’t mean just the play clock issues. Against the Bears, the entire offense seemed much more up tempo, and I had the same impression during the first three quarters in New Orleans (well, really the first half and the first drive of the second half). Now, everything seems slower, not just from the huddle to the line, but after the ball is snapped as well. What are your thoughts?
JPN,
They were able to get a lot of chunk plays in both of those games. The last 2 weeks the defenses have been better and able to take those shots away forcing them to grind it out. That being said, there were some nice plays from the second quarter on last week. If not for the miss to Crabtree they put up 31.
People want to point to the 18-19 Az game, well this was that type of performance. 1 bad pass, 2 drops and 2 throw aways. Doesn’t get much better than that.
Which numbers? Because 3TD’s in his last game seem pretty decent. Especially against an AZ team on the road knowing it was do or die time in Prime-Time.
Just curious… Since Kaep hasn’t THROWN a touchdown pass in over 10 quarters (since early 3rd quarter in the Saints game), how many of you would be KILLING Smith if had done the same, but we had the exact same TD’s – because our RB’s ran them in?!
You already know the answer and who would say it Brian.
I wouldn’t be happy about it. But smith was supposed to improve this season. And ck has only started 4 games and is at least matching smith. Gotta give a little slack for the guy who only started 4 games. A veteran that was supposed to be a pro bowler has no excuse for that production.
While I get what your saying, simply because were supposed to be a SB bound team and it’s late in the season – I can’t give Kaep a break.
To me Kaep has the job, he needs to be able to produce. Which he has and hasn’t. I’m much more worried about even making the playoffs now then I was about winning the SB before.
Brian= Hofer
Brian,
See that’s the difference. Kap hasn’t thrown them in, but he’s ran them in. Which is even more impressive, don’t you think. I think a 50 yard TD run is more impressive and difficult than a 50 yard throw. Don’t you?
This isn’t college, it’s the NFL. Running QB’s get hurt… It’s not like Kaep is 4″ taller and 60lbs heavier than Alex. They are almost exactly the same.
And no… I don’t want my QB to be a RB. If you like that, then I guess you are a HUGE Tebow fan.
Did you seriously just compare Kaep to Tebow? Really?
@Mr. Automatic – Of course not. They aren’t even in the same league (the fact Tebow is in the NFL should be considered an embarrassment to the league).
It was Jordan who said it’s more impressive that a QB ran for a 50 yard TD then a QB passing for a 50 yard TD. That is something a Tebomanic would say.
Brian,
I just askrd you was it impressive? You didnt answer. So youre a Kap hater. That is too bad. Tebow isnt our starting QB. Alex Smith isnt either. You need to get over it. Hes done.
I did answer, I said “No” it’s not more impressive a QB runs more TD’s than passes them.
I’m not a Kaep hater, I very much like the guy. I hope he’s EXTREMELY successful. I want him to be – I just can’t see a running QB being successful long term in the NFL. So I want him to learn to use his arm more than his legs. I’m not fan of the option play, nor a big fan of the pistol offense. I don’t believe they can be successful in the long term in the NFL. They will have short term, limited success, but that is all.
Colin has way bigger upside: See and can throw deep, accurately; can throw long outs and slants with incredible zip- making those throws at times indefensible; Can outrun almost any defender on any given play or instant.
This means defenses can’t load up the box as much, opening up running game.
Smith is the perfect backup: Smart, careful, experienced, terrific game manager, knows system. No mistakes.
Difficult, but wise choice by a great coach with brains, balls and guts.
Trust in Harbaugh.
3 sacks by Smith on Sunday, big upset by Niners, rendering following Sunday night in Seattle meaningless- assuming Cards get crushed last game of year- Duh.
Niners to Big Dance this year, baby!
So this analysis begs the question, is it the QB that makes the system look good or vice versa? I know we’ve touched on this before given Coach Harbaugh’s history of QB Whispering, but it seems to me he can take any reasonably gifted QB and make them more than functional in his offensive scheme. This says to me he’s moving forward with Kaep due to his innate physical advantages over Alex, the ability to get just that much more out of the play calls and/or the ability to extend when the plays break down – not necessarily because he’s a better QB in any tangible respect.
The ability to extend plays is probably the kicker. His pocket awareness and movement seem better than Smith’s.
Smith seems to be a lot better at getting the play called and the team up to the line in a timely fashion.
In the balance of strengths and weaknesses CK’s escapability is a pretty big weight on his side of the scale.
Msc,
That means all JH has to do is to tell Kap to get the team to hustle to the line of scrimmage. lol. I bet the playcalling issues will be better this week. Thats a minor issue and if that’s all Smith has to offer, I’m sure us Niner fans will take our chances with Kap.
MSC: Yes, his escapability is a huge + over Smith…as his his arm strength and markedly better downfield accuracy.
Playcalling issues may not be minor on the road against NE. If the call was in and the O had trouble getting to the line on time with the home crowd in the stadium, what makes you think it’ll be easier on the road, with a possible bad weather game? Not just getting to the line, but having a few extra seconds to make adjustments will be the key.
I’m thinking that Harbaugh hopes he can get more production out of Kaep in the playoffs if they have to air it out. So, as long as he doesn’t think he’s losing much in the transition to Kaep using a similar game plan, he figures he’s got a better chance to come back from a deficit, if needed.
anyone that thinks kaepernick doesnt give defensive coordinators more issues and less sleep are in deniak and wanna hate on tje 49ers game plan. Kaepernick brings more to the table and therefore you have to prepare for more. While the production might be similar, how the opponent game plans is way different. add the fact kaeps only had four starts has me believing we havent seen all there is to see. The production is a fallout of scheme. regardless who plays qb the game plan will always be a ball control offense, thats how it was at san diego and how it was at stanford.
Then where are the TD’s to match?
There’s a very simple answer to this but before I get to that, can we stop with the Kap is just as good after 4 starts crap. Both QB’s have been in the offense for the same amount of time. The experience helps Alex in deciphering Defenses and not making boneheaded mistakes like running out of bounds when you need to run clock, but has very little to do with each QB’s play in this offense. Experience does not help you learn an offense faster than the guy who is learning it at the same time. They are both intelligent and both have learned at the same time and pace.
The reason the numbers are so similar is because of the system. They run the same offense with much the same playcalling for both guys. It’s not hard to figure out. No matter who plays QB, the system is setup for success because it relies on running the football and passing off of the success of the run. Kap is playing because he’s played well and they’ve won games with him. Many people seem to overlook or pass off Harbaugh’s hot hand comment but that is the key here. He’s going with the guy who’s winning right now. If that guy starts to struggle he’ll go back to the other guy.
This board has a lot of people who like to base final conclusions on partial information and it’s impossible to do. Kap is the guy right now and I don’t think many disagree with the notion that he’s more talented and offers another dimension with his running ability, but don’t kid yourself into thinking the decision has been made for the future and it’s all set in stone. Kap will play as long as Kap continues to play well and that is all we know for sure at this time. If you think you know more…you don’t.
Rocket,
Give it up. SMITH IS HISTORY! That , we do know! Look for #7 in a helmet come gameday. Look for #11 in a baseball cap. It’s gonna be that way until we win the super bowl or we lose in the playoffs. Alex Smith has made his last throw as a SF 49er. At least it was a TD! It’s OVER for Smith!
So why are you still talking about him daily. Deep down you know JH pulled the trigger on Kap too soon. Anyone with half a brain knows the kid was put in an impossible situation to now having to lead this team to a SB.
Anything less than a NFC Championship win will be considered a failed season. That’s how good this team is.
Question is when will you start trashing CK when his inexperience shows up in the pressure cooker of a playoff run? Will it start after NE, SEA or a against maybe the Pack, Giants or Hawks in the 1st round of the playoffs.
Soon enough you will show your true colours. That’s what haters do!
Jordan,
Considering your past record on predictions, I fear for Kaps future.
As usual you also missed the just of the point. I’m not saying Smith is coming back; I’m saying this situation has not reached it’s conclusion and won’t until the season is over. It will all depend on how Kap plays the rest of the way. If he continues to improve and play well, you will get your wish and Smith is most likely playing somewhere else, but if he regress’ and they start to slide, they will go back to Smith and the decison on what to do next season is then cloudy at best.
So basically 23 hater the just is shut your pie hole and popping off cause every time you open your mouth it results in nothing of value. Now give Bay a call and go play Barbies together!
Prime,
How could you say that. I wanted Smith gone 5 years ago! You of all people should know I’m elated that Smith is gone. I’ve been singing and shouting it for 3 years on this blog. You are a jaded idiot if you think I believe this was a mistake. its the best thing thats happened for this team in 1o years. Alex is an average qb. It’s because of JH. You should be thankful instead of throwing fits on this blog daily, It’s not gonna change anything. The die has been cast. Your boyfriend is OUT. Deal with it.
Don’t you remember how in the playoff game against the Saints last year when AS led the team to victory Jordan was on here saying Smith still sucks and we can’t win without him.
Oh Wait… Never mind.
What will you say if Kap gets hurt this year and Smith leads us to the SuperBowl? Smith still sucks we won in spite of him. If people want to say they think Kap is great fine, but the way so many people here forget the good work AS did the last two years and turned it around is pathetic. Face the facts, the Niners were looking for any excuse to give Kap the job because they know they don’t want to give Smith an 8million dollar roster bonus next April. That’s why Kap is starting, not because he’s a better QB.
Rocket,
up to this point I pretty much respected your opinions. This one however is as intelligent as one of BS’s posts. If you think Kaep is the hot hand right now, you don’t know much.
Kaep will have through the middle of next year to show improvement. If he doesn’t and “if” there we have a plan B that is better, then JH will go to him at that time.
Smith is done here. Unless he seriously swallows his pride, allows himself to be released and signs for 75% less money. Insurance policy no matter how you look at it. But Kaep is now being developed. He is good now, will be great next year and white hot the year the stadium opens.
None of this matters though unless his team supports him like the “team” supported Smith last year like Matt said.
Lameareafanatic keep in mind,Super Bowl or bust. Now that all falls on a young Kaepernick. Wether it was the right decision or not, it’s a heavy burden and could potentially effect his development and or confidence.
You idiots need to deal with the ramifications of a bad coaching decisions wether Smith is here or not! Learn the game instead of being a biased pig!
Primescum/welcher,
maybe Matt can suggest a specialist you can see to help cure you of the bowel disorder that affects your mouth daily….
I’m here to enjoy my Niners. Fired up to see how they are going to utilize La Michael this week and to see if Roman is going to finally start attacking the end zone.
And hoping that Akers starts making kicks. Akers doesn’t know it but if he misses another significant kick he is going on IR for the remainder of the year Nate Kaeding is replacing him.
Bay you should just pipe down. You shy away from the truth cause I know it hurts. You and all your hater clown friends know Kap has been volunteered for mission impossible- win a SB. Harbaugh’s ego made a bad power play, and it might cost us a lost season. You keep ignoring it through your rose coloured glasses, we will see after the 2 games and even you can’t BS your way out of it!
Bay,
Well all good things have to come to an end.
My opinion is based on the fact I don’t see Harbaugh letting this team slide if Kap starts to struggle. He is the future in their eyes right now, but I don’t believe they would let things go sideways on this season just to make sure Kap gets playing time.
I’m not predicting Kap struggles; I’m saying Harbaugh will make a change if he does. That doesn’t mean they will give up on Kap either. It’ll mean they have a decision to make on whether they will hand things over to Kap unopposed next year, or bring Smith back to challenge him.
If Kap continues to play well and they are winning, there’s no doubt in my mind Smith will be playing elsewhere next season.
The next 2 weeks determine how good CK is right now. If he plays as he did in his other 2 road games we are losing. The Pats and Seattle are better than the Saints and Rams.
Really BS because the Rams beat the Seahawks…
Can you and your hateful band post 20 times apiece without replying to me?
If you can’t,you are a bunch of hateful loser stalkers.
Post BS and I’ll call you on your BS… Learned it from Claude…
How are the Seahawks tougher when the Rams beat them?
And if our kicker does his job we beat the Rams twice. Enlighten us with your vast knowledge BS…
BS satands for shea Bonehead reversed. If KaP can’t Seattle and New England, then we were’t going to lose anyway. That’s why JH benched Smith. He benched him because Kap had a better chance to beat New England.
After only 4 weeks of taking 1st team reps Colin is as good as Alex.
More accurate?
Jason,
Another uninformed Smither. If Alex Smith was worth 8 million, why would you think the niners wouldn’t pay him? You make 8 mil sound like 80 mil. why do you think they Dont want to pay him? Heres a clue. Hes nit worth it!!!!!!! Why waste 8 mil on a backup. Its a good thing youre not our gm!
Easy answer, because they know if they pay Alex the 8million it will be hard for them to keep Dashon Ghoshon next year. They’re hoping Kap proves to be a good starter so they can release smith.
But nice try Jordan.
I think the sample size for CK is way to small for this kind of statistical analysis. Obviously Harbaugh sees some intangibles in Kaepernick or else he would not have benched Smith. Why not give him the benefit of the doubt and reserve judgement until after the season.
All NFL QBs have the basic skill set or else they he would not be on the roster. The separation between the top two or three and the rank and file boils down to intangibles. Obviously Harbaugh thinks CK has the intabgibles to come up with great plays in certain situations which Alex cannot. The only statistic this kind of thing shows up is wins and losses in big games. So far this year Alex is 1-1 in big games (Green bay, Giants). CK is 2-0 (Bears, Saints). CK will get a chance to show what he can do in two more pressure games coming up. Let’s see how he does.
Saints weren’t a big game. They weren’t even a .500 team.
Rick,
Excuse BS from Dsexev1234, she is a Smithaholic. Saints were on fire and that game would’ve put them in the playoff hunt. They had won 5 in a row. This fool does not realize that this was the same Saints team that her hero beat in the playoffs last year in the best game of his life. We beat them this year so she downplays what Kap did just like she downplays everything he does.
23J,
how big is the mistake the replacement refs made in the Seahawk / Packer game now?
Not to mention the points they gave the Rams in their win over us. We should be 3.5 up on Seattle.
I thought about that earlier this week. The Packers would be the number 2 seed and we’d be #3. We just neew to beat new england or seattle, and of course Arizona. I don’t think we lose another game this season. We need our defense to stay healthy and keep playing at the same level.
Yep Grosse,
but just the mistake in the Packers game would have us comfortably ahead by 2.5 game with three to go.
what are the stats on offensive penalty yards pre and post Smith? It sure seems that the team has gone backwards since Kaep took over as far as penalties go.
Also, am I imagining it or did the offense have a much shorter field, on average, before Kaep took over?
The Niners got the ball at like their 40 all first half vs the Rams. CK couldn’t do anything with it.
And penalties hurt both QB’s. AS throws for nearly 400 in the first half of the Buffalo game if not for penalties.
Still crying and hoping? It’s over. AS will not start again for the Niners barring an injury. Get over the broken heart and get behind the team.
Nick
Learn to read. It will improve your life in so many ways.
Thanks for the advice. Is that what your shrink told you?
Grant,
You did not take into consideration the loss of Kyle Williams & Hunter has had on overall offensive production the last 2 games. It appears that the deep pass game has dropped off because defenses do not have to account for Williams going deep out of the slot.
Since the slew of injuries to the playmakers, the offense has regressed in play calling and become more conservative.
Also, the loss of Manningham…
@DS i agree with you the next 2 weeks are the real test for CK. Harbaugh is starting CK over AS because i believe that Harbaugh believes CK will give the team a better chance to win the super bowl. Well our next 2 opponents are both playing at a very high level and if CK is going to win in the playoffs he needs to show he can beat the Pats and The seahawks. My question to you is if the 9ers win the next 2 games will you state clearly that CK is the better choice to be our QB going foreward?
Old coach,
That’s the $5 million question!
old coach
No. CK still needs to do it in the playoffs. If the ceiling for AS was the NFC title game (I don’t believe that) then the ceiling for the guy to replace him starts at the Super Bowl. I whole-heartedly believe you don’t make a change unless that change improves the team. Which is why I don’t care to take any “considerations” into account (he’s young, hasn’t played a lot, etc) while gradin him. You replace an experienced healthy proven winner, you better win and at the minimum look just as good as he did.
But CK will prove (if he wins the next two games) that he can beat winning/0.500 teams. Which is something he hasn’t proved yet to me. Now part of that is just due to the schedule of him facing 3 straight losing teams which he can’t help at all. But the only start which I was happy with from CK was the Bears game.
Something that went un-noticed by pretty much everybody here was the Rams were the first team to see CK twice. That Rams game on the road was a big deal. You can study film all you want, but you don’t know till you actually play the guy. The Rams figured out a way to stop him dead cold. That was very concerning to me. If a sub 0.500 team can do that in round 2, I don’t have a lot of confidence that a .0500 or above team can’t do it in round 1.
The best part is that, this ins’t going to be hypothetical. It will be known…and soon.
BS,
Our new coach of the SF 49ers. You are a clown.
Truth hurts does it not 23 hater?
23
Notice how every time you post you are a dick and the direction of the blog always goes down.
See my post above. I didn’t do that. Then you get upset at this BS person who I love for no reason than you hate him.
Before your mom died didn’t she ever teach you manners? Get out of here.
Come on DSLips
You don’t have to retort to comments about dead parents, do you? That’s just mean.
Did I mention that another symptom of your tragic disease is social ineptitude?
sicko/houston/23 whoever you want to be
Get away. The scum of scum wouldn’t bring up autism from out of the blue.
smh
BS,
A troubled misfit you are. A man that wants to be a woman that wants to talk football but has no clue. At least you dont post 200 times a day anymore. Now its just 25 posts of pure stupidity. I know what you are. Its what youve been your whole life. Misersble. 49ergirl makes you feel inferior doesnt she. Its because she’s a woman that knows about football and youre man that wants to be a woman that knows nothing about football. Once again, sell your computer and get a life. You’re a blog bum and not a very good one at that.
love the stats, Grant, thank you.
one key ingredient: it took Alex 6-7 years of STARTING to get to the statistical level that he’s playing at now (and he’s had the benefit of getting to try on several different offenses, none of which worked for him), which is the same level Kaep has achieved in his first few games as a starter. if the dear readers cant see the differences Kaep brings to the table, they can’t be helped to see them.
Harbaugh made this move. I trust him based on the fact that he turned around the franchise in a single year, with ingredients Sing lost with, and he’s the only one who’s gotten quality performances out of Alex. so if he thinks this is the right move, then i’m all for it; similarly, if Harbaugh for any reason switches back to Alex in the future, i’ll support that too. because i’m a Niner fan, not an Alex fan or a Kaep fan.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve had serious doubts about this team’s ability to repeat what they did last year since the early season games against the Giants and Vikings. Nothing I’ve seen since has dramatically changed that opinion. Still, I’m glad they made the QB switch because at least I have the hope that Kaep may be able to rise to the occasion. I never really felt confident in Alex’s abilities to beat top defenses if our defense was struggling. Every other QB I’ve seen become a top talent has had at least one game where he completely dominated a highly rated defense. I mean like 3-4 touchdowns in a half. Alex played great at the end of the Saints game last year but I can’t really call that NO defense a strong group. I’ve been hoping for years to see that type of game but maybe my patience is running out. Let’s see what Kaep can do.
All the excuses that Smith-haters have accused Smith-supporters of making, are now doing the same thing for Kaepernick. It’s not like most of them actually believe in Kaepernick, they just want ANYBODY that’s not Alex Smith.
I happen to like both QBs, I also believe short of winning the Super Bowl, Smith probably would have been replaced by Kaepernick in 2013. Kaep is ready to start, I don’t think he’s ready to win the Super Bowl this season.. he however will greatly benefit from a full off-season as the starter and be exponentially better next season.
Six Ace,
You nailed this one.
Harbaugh made a mistake in naming CK our starting QB. The timing was awful. He should have done it at the end of preseason. Would have given Kaep a lot more time to iron out the wrinkles. Of course it was easy to wait till Alex got injured and hindsight is 20/20 but I believe that Harbaugh knew all along that CK was his man. Bad timing on Jim’s part.
Can something be interesting and moot at the same time? The stats comparison is interesting but pointless. However, if we must… is there a way to calculate the average yards in the drives led by each QB?
One of CK’s touchdown drives was a one play 21 yard run by Gore after a fumbled kickoff and another was last week’s eleven yard drive on another muffed punt. Add the two pick sixes and the scoring productivity gets quickly skewed in CK’s favor.
Like I said, it’s a pointless argument but interesting nevertheless an if we want to make it more accurate then let’s consider this aspect as well.
Here’s a radical idea: go get Andrew Luck after the 2015 season. How? Contact him and tell him that the 49ers will beat whatever the Colts offer. But that’s tampering! For the grown ups who are still reading, once upon a time there was a QB that the 49ers got in a trade to be Joe Montana’s back up. He eventually lead them to a Super Bowl and is in the HOF. What most DON’T KNOW about Steve Young is that Bill Walsh met with him for a throwing session in Utah in 1987 while Young was still under contract with Tampa Bay. Tampering is a fact of life in the NFL just like PED’s and point shaving. It takes an elite QB to win Super Bowls and the 49ers do not have one…yet.
Although I’d rather see you compare both after Kaepernick has played eight games as well, I can’t complain much because of well you broke this down. Great job Grant.
IMO, Harbaugh comes over like a shady used car salesman, but if feels that CK gives us the best chance at winning I’m all in.
There is no dramatic difference in CK’ and AS’ stats. What CK gives us is the potential threat factor.
That’s the big difference I see so far.
Problem with that AES is that JH is just as likely to do the same to CK at some point. And that wouldn’t be fair to him.
@AES
“IMO, Harbaugh comes off as a shady used car salesman,”
I’ll disagree with you here, just my subjective take. I think the difference is intent. I suspect his intent is not to mislead, but to not reveal. He’s said it over and over from the beginning of his tenure. So to me he’s more like a spokesman for the CIA or the Pentgon; he’ll stand up there for as long as you want not telling you what you’re trying to find out. It’s a game. It’s the only game he plays. Anyone remember the daily presses out of Saigon? The Follies.
Does this frustrate Grant & Lowell? And us too?
Uh-yeah. Ask the scribes in Boston about covering BB and the Pats.
PS. With George W Bush as my inspiration, I think I’ve invented the word “secondhandedly”. Grammatical and syntax experts can just save their breath, I’m apt to do it again! : >)
brotha
You can not reveal and go to pick up your own HC of the Year Award instead of sending the guy you dump mid-way thru the season in which we are Super Bowl bound.
What was up with that? If I’m CK I can’t possibly believe anything he is telling me about my job performance/security/etc. Which sucks for CK by the way.
DS
I get that you’re still shocked and insulted by the QB change and the way it came down. Even Lowell and Grant who were calling out Alex’s play complained about how it was handled. I was surprised, didn’t see it coming, but not shocked. Without meaning to sound condescending, it’s an expected level of brutal reality in this business. Many of us remember the uncomfortable departures of Joe Montana, Roger Craig, Jerry Rice and Ronnie Lott. We also remember Brady (BB’s decision) not giving up the starting position when Bledsoe returned from injury; brutal, cold, rude.
AES,
Watch the games for the difference in the 2 QBs. To me, its a big difference on the field. Kap has had us in every game hes started and the one he came off the bench in. We will be in this New England game as well. I expect us to win it too.
One QB can run like the wind and is learning slowly, the other can manage and run all of it efficiently. I think I would prefer the QB that knows all of it.
@DS sometimes as fans we mistake our emotional attachment to our favorite teams to management or coaches having an emotional attachment to their players. I think Eddie D and B. Walsh showed us all how to win consistently in the NFL, you have to be cut throat. Roger Craig\Ronnie Lott\Joe montana all cut or traded. Players understand its a business. Coaches say what they need to to get the best performance out of their players that they can. there is no loyalty in pro sports other than ownerships loyalty to the fan base to put the best product possible on the field. The Giants traded Willie Mays. The Dodgers traded Jackie Robinson. It is a business.
Old coach
Good post. You forgot one. The Niners will trade Alex Smith. As well they should. He is no longer the future of this franchise. Its clear to most here that I never thought he was. JH said I was right. I dont understand why it was so hard to see from most here. He moved up and drafted a QB in the 2nd round! Even with smith being 27. Doesnt that tell us what he thought about smith?
Of course, Smith wasn’t on the team when the 49ers drafted Kaepernick, but don’t let the facts get in the way of your story.
old coach
About those other plaers you brought up:
JM- Had he not missed the better part of 2 seasons with injury, he keeps his job here. No way do you toss JM out for the upside of SY. AS was out 2 games. Not fair comparison.
RC- The Niners most stupid move was to dump him. A HOF RB tossed out for a bunch of loser RB’s? It is no coincidence we didn’t win another Super Bowl till Watters became our RB.
RL- Was past his prime by a mile.
Among the 3 AS situation is most like the RC one. Though not a good comparison. And what happened to us after we dumped RC?
PS- BW kept those dynasty players. Seifert dumped all 3.
All I keep hearing is potential. Kap has the potential to do this and to do that. The Niners do not have time for potential, they are a top five team in the league and a serious contender for the big stage. This game against the Patriots, is entirely on the offense to win unless the defense sucks big time which I doubt. Brady has the ability to disect any defense even if they are elite defense.
This game is going to be won/lost on the strenght of the offense, from coaching to the players. Flawless execution, zero mental mistakes, very few penalities, and the drops have to stop. I havnt seen this all year and I suspect I wont see it again this Sunday. Along with P Manning, Brady is currently the best QB in football. The Niners have beaten the other two elite QBs this year, Rogers and Brees with both of those are on the road. I like our chances. Offense has to roll.
Excellent post Under. This was not the year to see what Kap can do. It was not a development year. We are primed to win but now have an unknown with Kap. There was never any guarantee with Smith either but the formula was working, the players rallied around Smith and things were clicking.
Now over the past 4 weeks we are seeing a team redefining their offense. JH can say all he wants about the same offense, maybe a variation but a lot has changed. One being the lack of continuity and penalties occurring as a result. Also, the timing after now 4 games. Kap burnt and or audible into so many timeouts. This should not be happening in Decemeber. The is the time of year you roll, not discover what is gonna work.
So NE and SEA will put some pressure on our defense. The million dollar questions as Maiacco said, falls all on CK’s shoulders. No young QB should have that expectation. Especially one with only 5 career starts.
I don’t care about potential. Every NFL player has potential. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t have made the NFL.
And who is to say that player x will get better the next year? That is a bunch of BS. How is Cam doing this year? What happened to his upside and potential? There are a lot of players who had the same thing said about them, but I’d have to look them up because they didn’t do anything. So, I forgot about them.
To put simply, every stinking player who is drafted, the “experts” say has “upside, potential, etc.” Even if players aren’t drafted you’ll hear some “expert” say he had this guy going in the 4th round or something. I don’t care. I want results.
We know potential means nothing. They said it aboit Smith. Look how he was doing before JH got here. But its water under the bridge! That ship has sailed. Bye Alex.
Under,
Potential is the key word. Thats why Smith got benched. You have to know that JH felt that couldnt squeeze anything else out of Smith. Look closely at the Vikings game and Giants game. In the Vikings game, he wouldnt attemt the throws to get us backinto the game. In the Giants game, he attempted the throws and they picked him off 3 times. He cant help us win the big one. Hes maxed out.
In your opinion, why do you think JH benched Alex?
Roman has to attack the end zone. I’m tired of hearing that the deep pass is taken away. If the deep pass is truly taken away then the intermediate routes are open. Attack those and force the defense to change up. Dictating to a defense. A boxer with knockout power wants to hit his opponent in the head. But if his opponent is taken the head shots away by covering up, then you continuously land body shots until the hands come down.
Roman was covering himself with an Alexcuse of his own. There were certain out throws that Smith does not have the ability to make. The coaching staff by going to CK IMO have made it seem as if that was part of the reason for the switch. Bigger arm.
Last game we saw a shot to Moss. This offense is so stone age that we have to try a flee flicker to get a long pass off. Ridiculous. How about a pump fake or teaching your QB to look the other way to move the safety. Either way it seems as if this is a team in transition. Hope the OC transitions a bit himself. If he calls another game like he did against the Rams I’d like to ship him to Minnesota with the rest of the Singletary crew.
@Bay i tend to agree with you but i think you’re blaming the wrong person. What makes you think that Roman is’nt calling the exact game plan and plays that Harbaugh wants. Do you really think that if Bill Walsh’s O coordinators were putting together game plans he did’nt agree with he would’nt have stepped in. Harbaugh like walsh is an offensive mind and a strong personality. the style of play you are seeing is not Gregg Romans style its J. Harbaughs.
@ bay:
So, Alex Smith throws for only 207.38 yards/game because he has limitations, but Kaepernick throws for only 216.75 yards/game because Roman’s play-calling holds him back?
OK, whatever you say.
Coach,
we have two receivers in Moss and Jenkins that run sub 4.4 40′s.
Line em up and take a shot three times a game. Especially on 2nd and short.
The Moss play is a great example of why you do that. You either score, or you get a P.I. call. ( Unless the ref is as blind as the a$$hole that forgot to throw the flag that last game )
Ive said it for 2 years. You have to at least tgreaten tge defense. Keep them honest. Te defense cant take everything away. We’ve got too much talet on offense to look so weak in our ability to get deep. Take more shots. The refs owe us a pass interference call. We need to collect on that this week. Vernon Davis will show up huve this week. Bigver than ever before! He is going to have a monster game! Book it!
Relying on a PI call to get production from your offense is not smart.
@Bay once again i agree with you but lets call a shovel a shovel it probably wo’nt happen because it goes against everything Harbaugh stands for. Its kinda funny it seems like those who agree with harbaughs benching of Smith find it difficult to question Harbaugh in any other area because that would go against their creed of in Harbaugh we trust
Not going against it coach. Throwing two or three bombs in a game doesn’t significantly change your offensive strategy or game plan. In fact it benefits it.
>>You either score, or you get a P.I. call.
You overlooking the two other possibilities there, bay?
Sheesh, no wonder these guys are blind Lamonicats.
@ bay:
If the defense isn’t crowding the box with excess defenders and is in fact keeping two safeties deep, why waste the plays?
The 49ers have shown that when teams crowd the box (Arizona, Chicago) to stuff the run and/or bring extra pressure, they will throw over the defense. But, if defenses generally are scheming to take away the deep pass (just about everyone else), it doesn’t make sense to throw deep. The intermediate and underneath routes have been open, and the 49ers have been successful in exploiting them.
Claude,
You are on the money. It would be great to see the ball winging all over the yard, but if the defense is taking it away you go elsewhere. If you can make them pay enough they will eventually creep up and boom over the top.
@ Jack:
What I am trying to figure out is when “take what the defense gives you” became a four letter word?
We are all disappointed with the offense’s lack of production. I like and agree with what Bay said about making the defense adjust. You still take what the defense gives you, but you have to do it effectively enough so that you get points. It seems like they are not being aggressive enough. If the deep passes are being taken away, attack the shorter intermediate routes. If the defense can continue the same strategy for the whole game (ie taking away the deep passes), doesn’t that mean that you aren’t doing enough to take advantage of what they are giving you? Previously we thought that was an Alex thing, but its looking more and more like a Harbaugh (roman) thing.
Damn,
I gotta stop posting with my phone. Looks like I spell like a 2nd grader. Lol.
I say we run it down their throats 50 times. We need to double wham block Wilfork. He’s a monster. We will target VD 6-8 times in this game. We know there a mis match there. LMJ will break one as well. We got this.
The offense moves the ball and overall this season have been pretty efficient. What seems to be happening is that some were expecting a more explosive passing offense with Kap being given the job and reality is a bitch. I’m a broken record..err CD…er MP3 whatever, but this is the offense and you are getting a clear picture that the offense doesn’t change because of the QB.
Claude,
Taking what the defense is giving you doesnt suffice if it means the Fantasy Football stats don’t come with it. What some of the fans want doesn’t mesh with the philosophy this Coach believes in. They want the Saints and Packers, but cheer for a team that plays like the Steelers. Somethings gotta give.
@ rocket:
I hear you. The preference for style over substance annoys the crap out of me.
Style over substance is one thing, but the weirdly conservative approach to scoring and trying to get leads is more troubling. It’s as though they think a single TD is enough of a cushion to give the defense, so risk is minimized when the team gets even small leads, which exposes the team to outcomes like they had against the Rams on both occasions. That’s not about the QB. That’s about a coaching staff that clearly values possession and favorable field position by committing no turnovers over taking risky shots all over the field. Obviously the turnover battle is telling, but it feels as though this team could be a lot more productive without unduly increasing risk.
Don’t worry Tarzan, CK is gonna show his explosiveness. That’s why he was brought in! 400 yards passing on Sunday, you watch!
@ Prime:
I don’t know. After reading Barrows’ article, I am beginning to think that those who predicted increasing use of the Pistol offense are right.
Beefcake
I’d take that. Always confounds me how the coaches, when they have to, take the chains off the offense, whether with Alex or CK, like in the Saints games last year and this year. Both guys have delivered when asked to, so the offense as a whole should feel confident it can accomplish good things this Sunday. Hopefully the staff will keep the peddle to the metal from the opening kickoff right up until the end.
CB
Alt is highly respected for the volume and complexities in his pistol playbook. Colin did some things working within Alt’s offense that no other college player in history could accomplish, culminating in taking down #1 ranked Boise State in his last year. It’s not unreasonable to believe the Niners might want to tap into Colin’s strengths. Now it’s just up to Roman to channel Alt …
>>This offense is so stone age that we have to try a flee flicker to get a long pass off. Ridiculous.
Someone said “so you think you know more than the coach of the year?” Might have that been you, bay?
And now for something completely different……..
Off topic again, but….. There’s an article on the Petaluma Patch about the Press Democrat’s plans to go to “metered” use of their on-line site in 2013. As I read that article, I doubt it will happen prior to the Super Bowl, but could impact access while we ruminate over the next Draft.
Personally, while I understand that the PD may have trouble offering up news out of the goodness of their hearts, I’m thinking it would be hard for me to pay for a site when I can get similar content for free elsewhere. If I’m understanding the business model correctly, the PD would gain some on-line subscribers, but on this blog I’d guess that the number of hits would drop off in dramatic fashion, adversely effecting advertising revenue potential.
I probably won’t pay. How about y’all?
Hell no i wo’nt pay i already buy the paper every morning. I guess i will be saying goodbye to you all pretty soon
I’ll only pay if Bob Padecky is writing pieces…..
@ Coach
In fairness, I haven’t seen the PD’s potential offer, so maybe there’s a discount or freebie if you subscribe to the actual paper, but the article suggested they wanted to have both subscription bases; on-line & paper.
To be determined.
@ Bay
Are you Bob’s groupie? Just kidding. : >)
Pay for this soap opera? No chance!
+1
Pay to watch the meltdown that happens here daily? Yeah right.
Grant, I’m having some trouble with some of your stats. here’s what I’m seeing out there:
Passing TDs: Smith – 13, Kaepernick – 3
Rushing TDs: Smith – 0, Kaepernick – 5
What is the advantage in adding defensive scores?
Red zone TD percentage with CK so far has been frustrating. Season average is 56% (or 12th in the league). The ‘last 3′ trend is 45% so I understand your field goal analogy: stalled drives.
Gross yards per throw: Smith – 8.0, Kaepernick – 8.3
Sacks: Smith – 24 (w/137 lost), Kaepernick – 13 (w/82 lost)
Poor throws (percentage of overall att): Smith – 12%, Kaepernick – 11%
I agree that these guys are fairly similar. It looks to me like the obvious difference is in the QB rush game.
Rushing Yards: Smith – 134 (w/4.6 per carry), Kaepernick – 351 (w/7.6 per carry)
So I assume we have the RQB of the future? :P
No,
you can assume that we have a younger Qb who’s coach thinks has a higher ceiling that is able to do exactly what Smith can do with very limited playing time. And can make throws that Smith can’t make.
What people don’t want to give Kaep credit for is the fact that he isn’t a running QB. At least not run first.
So what’s the difference, then? So far? Not much.
Other than the rush yards.
I’m cool with a running QB as long as he’s smart about it and doesn’t get hurt. In the Rams game he got blind-sided pretty good on one of those on the sideline.
You’re forgetting that he IS run first in these pistol option things which they seem to call quite a lot.
Denial. Kap greatest strength right now is running the football. Every productive play he has made has been with his legs. Even a blinded moron like you has to admit that.
The problem is Jim is that learning to win in other ways should not happen in December. So now teams will exploit that. They already have. Just watch what Carroll and Billy B do to confuse Kap. I feel worried for the kid.
>>can make throws that Smith can’t make.
You’d think the coaching staff would know what these throws are that everyone here is talking about. We haven’t seen them. At least we haven’t seen them impact a game in any kind of meaningful way.
Unless the coaches are not letting Kaep be Kaep. You are not going to go that “knowing better than the coach of the year” route, are you?
Bay,
What’s the problem if he is a running QB. RGIII appears to be as well. People worried about injuries, big deal. We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it. So far, the kid is healthy. We know he has a rocket arm and he will use it when he needs to. I don’t give a damn how we win at this point. As long as we win. I’m just thankful that I know we can threaten the entire field and that teams have to play us honest now because of his arm. Say what you want, we all know it’s true that the NY Giants were not afraid of the backups arm. They dared him to throw it around and when he did, he threw it to them.
@ Rib,
wow you didn’t take long to talk out of both sides of your mouth.
” We haven’t seen them. At least we haven’t seen them impact a game in any kind of meaningful way. ”
Which is it? You haven’t seen the throws or you haven’t seen them impact the game in a meaningful way?
I don’t know what to tell you Rib. I’ve seen Kaep make a handful of throws in 4 short games that Alex either can’t make or wouldn’t attempt. Like the throw in the seam to VD. The one VD said he’s run that route several times and never gets the ball.
The guy with the clipboard doesn’t make that throw. Or against the Rams the first game on 3rd and 15. Remember that throw? Or the throw across the field to Kyle Williams. Remember that throw? Or the throw to Moss this last game remember that throw?
I’m not using examples from a full season, just 4 games. Give it up Rib…
@23welcher:
I don’t give a damn how we win at this point. As long as we win.
OMFG. Where was that attitude last year? Or the first 8 games of this season? What a lying hypocrite you are.
I’m just thankful that I know we can threaten the entire field and that teams have to play us honest now because of his arm.
Exactly how are teams playing the 49ers differently?
>>Which is it? You haven’t seen the throws or you haven’t seen them impact the game in a meaningful way?
It’s both. Who gives a f about the impressive throws that a QB can make if they aren’t consistently made or if they don’t effect the outcome, either in-game or final score. 3rd down % barely different, red zone scoring down.
How do you account for the passing output virtually identical, 3rd down % barely different, red zone scoring down – between the two QBs, one who makes all the throws, the other supposedly not?
Here’s what STATS had to say in their recent analysis: “Almost all of Kaepernick’s value comes from his legs.”
Adam- At this point, that is correct. I’m behind the team 100%, but you can’t hide the facts.
Kap- 1 TD per 43 passes thrown.
Alex- 1 TD per 17 passes thrown.
Hopefully this pattern changes this week. I’m so geeked up already. This is a ‘shoulda been’ game, it ‘shoulda been’ last years SB!
Yeah, this is THE game for sure.
I feel a bit nervous about this one. Usually I’m really confident about these, mainly because I know the defense will nearly always shut down the opposing offense but…
The defense has shown a tendency to be a bit up and down and the offense seems to have plateaued.
Vegas had this at New England by 5 earlier this morning.
This team is somewhat unpredictable so it could be a complete blowout or a real tight game. And it could go either way. :/
Starting to tighten up. I just saw 3 points (Patriots).
Interesting.
Adam, the Ontario provincial lottery has Pats -6.5. (lots of pats fans up here skews it). Needless to say, I’m taking the points
Ribico,
Have you missed the 25 yard out patterns. You missed all the throws in the Bear game. You missed the 16 yard slant to Crabtree. These are throws that Smith does not even attempt, let alone complete.
jack can show you throws. Just ask him, he’s the film guy. You know it’s true. I don’t give a damn if he never throws it. As long as he is quarterbacking and we win. In JH I trust! Try it.
>>You missed all the throws in the Bear game.
And haven’t seen them since.
Since Kaep supposedly makes all these throws that Smith can’t or can’t how do you account for the passing output virtually the same between the two? Using Jordo logic, Smith must have been making throws that Kaep can’t or won’t.
Rib,
you are a moron straight and simple. Keep the argument alive just for the sake of arguing. I coach kids so I recognize the strategy.
Ribico,
Go to the 1st throw to walker for 25 yards in the Miami game. If you open your eyes, they are not hard to find. Try the one to Crabtree for 25 in the third quarter. That was a beauty as well. Try the throw to Moss in the end zone. We can’t put that play in for Smith. See, it’s not that hard.
As for the offense. See we have this new set. It’s called the pistol. Coach said yesterday that Alex isnt capable of running that, er as well as Kap. I’m sure you read that. So we’re going to exploit this pistol for a while. The numbers might not change but the QBs name sure did. Its Kaepernick, RoboKap to you!
Bay, then ask your kids how to account for the passing output virtually the same between the two? I might get an intelligent answer from them, since I obviously won’t from either you or welcher.
>>See we have this new set. It’s called the pistol.
Lol, thats your answer? A gimicky college formation based on the antiquated full house T thats been in existence for 75 years? That’s going to save us? God help us.
Ribico,
In the famous words of Edward D Bartolo.
“He Gone!”
I actually agree.
However we are posting in a Grant column that is making the QB comparision – there is discussion still despite the politburo’s attempt to photoshop AS out of the team picture.
“…despite the politburo’s attempt to photoshop AS out of the team picture.”
Hahaha! Nicely put.
@ ribico:
Excellent metaphor. jordan and bay have gotten very Animal Farmish in here.
You gotta hand it to the Commies, much more difficult in the days before Photoshop.
Claude,
I’m not even on this thread so why bring up my name? You are a moron. You add no value. Talk football Claude. Add an opinion.
Got a prediction for this weekend? Of course not. You are a vulture plain and simple. Wait for the roadkill and soar down and pick at it….
I’m not clause, but my prediction is I have no f-ing idea whats going to happen.
When the defense prevents the other team from scoring a TD and we still lose, it defies making predictions of any sorts. While we are averaging 1 passing TD per game against losing teams, we could just as easily get 4 this game. Will the Chicago Kaep show up? Or the Rams one? Will Kaep get give 50 yard romp after the game has been decided? And if so, which way will the decision be? Our experience against Amendola doesn’t bode well for limiting Welker, but could just as easily shut him down as well.
I will predict the Diamond is not going to be successful, Belichick is probably laughing at film of it as we speak.
@ bay:
I attempted to engage you in a football discussion (see my 9:58 am comment) but you apparently were too busy attacking ribico to respond.
Just admit it; you don’t like it when someone fact checks the b/s you try to pass off as informed commentary.
As for me offering fewer opinions than you would like, I only offer opinions when I believe I am sufficiently informed to offer a knowledgeable one. Unlike you, I see little to no value in uninformed opinions, particularly when they are passed off as the word of God.
Rooting against the team againt? Some of you Smithers are pathetic.
@ Nick:
Who’s rooting against the 49ers? Spitblood hasn’t posted in a while.
Who’s rooting against the team? That came out of left field.
>>Rooting against the team againt? Some of you Smithers are pathetic.
Nick, you obviously have Smithers confused with haters such as Jordo.
Take your pathetique observation in his direction. kthksbai.
@ Grant:
Regarding your current poll:
From front to back:
NT, defensive line depth, pass rusher, CB to cover quick slot receivers/groom for the future, Safety (depending upon whether or not they sign Goldson, but also have to think about depth and life after Whitner).
Deep Space Nine Forever and Ever and Ever and Ever
… ooooohhhhh Quark, you’re sooo hot