It will be interesting to see how the 49ers-Patriots game actually plays out next Sunday night, but in the meantime here are some comparative statistics for both teams vs. common opponents.
49ers are averaging 25.7 points; Pats are averaging 34.5 ppg.
49ers are averaging 11 drives per game; Pats averaging 12.1 drives.
49ers are scoring TDs on 27.2% of its series; Pats are scoring TDs on 32.9% of its series.
49ers are kicking field goals on 14.2% of its series; Pats are kicking FGs on 17.5% of its series.
49ers are scoring on 57.6% of its red zone opportunities; Pats are scoring on 66.6% of its red zone opportunities.
49ers are giving up 9.3 points per game; Pats are allowing 21.3 ppg.
49ers opponents are averaging 10.5 drives per game; Pats opponents are averaging 12.3 drives per game.
49ers opponents are scoring TDs on 6.7% of its series; Pats opponents are scoring TDs on 19.1% of its series.
49ers opponents are kicking field goals on 12.1% of its series; Pats opponents are kicking FGs on 12.1% of its series.
49ers opponents are scoring on 30% of its red zone opportunities; Pats opponents are scoring on 54.1% of its red zone opportunities.
49ers have a point differential of a + 16.4 points per game vs. opponents; Pats have a differential of +13.2 ppg vs. opponents.
Home field advantage on average is worth 3 points.
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I think all that really is important are these stats:
“49ers are giving up 9.3 points per game; Pats are allowing 21.3 ppg.
49ers opponents are averaging 10.5 drives per game; Pats opponents are averaging 12.3 drives per game.
49ers opponents are scoring TDs on 6.7% of its series; Pats opponents are scoring TDs on 19.1% of its series.”
Remember the Saints game though… on the road the Niners have not taken advantage of lessor defenses. This weekend they can and they will have to because Brady and Co. (like Brees) are going to put up more than the average number of points the Niners have given up.
Statistically the NE D looks ripe for the pickings but i think the 49ers will struggle if they continue to throw underneath throw underneath throw underneath. As much as i dislike Belicheat he is one hell of a D coach and will make adjustments and i do’nt see CK as the kind of QB to keep long conservative drives alive, yet. i believe the only way we will play well on O is run the hell out of the ball and let CK be CK let him throw routes 20 yards and over. Harbaugh is trying to make CK into AS and AS is better at that game than CK. Let ck be CK and throw the ball to AJ for good measure
You can tell CK wants to throw it deep but no one is open. The Niners are doing something wrong when a D can put 8 in a box and still stop the deep ball. They are great at the run scheme, but not the pass. They have a good enough receiver corp to do more, and both QB are accurate and efficient.
CK is learning on the job, that’s obvious now. He makes some good throws, but it’s his pre-snap adjustments where Alex appears to be better.
Alex can run a little but CK runs like a gazelle. he runs more fluid then Cam. The only one that runs better is RG3, but he already got hurt twice.
+ a million
A couple of times on Sunday Crab and VD ended up in the exact same place down field, which indicates poor scheme if neither of them has the ball in his hands.
poor scheme or bad rout running?
*route
NE’s rush defense is better this year but they are at the bottom of the league defending the pass. If we can get Gore 100 yards rushing that’ll take pressure of of our passing and open it up. A little simplistic but i have faith our defense will take care of business
Also, Im not as worried about this game as others. NE has lost 3 games against good defenses and barely beat Miami. Also they get to play in a mediocre division which always makes things look good.
It’s a bit glib but when two teams seem to match up fairly close it usually comes down to whomever makes the fewest mistakes.
Just read that the 49ers / Seahawks game has been moved to Sunday night football. : http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000108773/article/ninersseahawks-week-16-game-moved-to-snf
hahaha one of the comments on that nfl.com page is pretty funny. They’re gonna flex the Chargers vs Jets game to the Opra Winfrey network.
Lol!
Rofl
Lol
Oops, sorry Jack you posted this already. I swear I looked first but missed it the first time.
The Patriots have lost three games, to the Cards, Ravens, Hawks, by a total sum of four points. The Patriots are the best team in football right now. This would be a huge win if we can pull it off.
You are right Under. This game will tell us if CK is the real deal or not. Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and on the road, a tough task but why we made the switch. To see if all this potential can translate to a Super Bowl. The defense will be ready, the offense, not so sure just yet.
Prime its going to be a good test for sure, and the Hawks also will be a test. Not sure if our QB matters whether it be CK/AS. Besides the defense needing to play its best game so does the offense. Going to have to play mistake free ball on both sides to win in either place.
The QB position will be critical in the playoffs and especially in this offense. We rely so much on the run and when teams take that away, the QB will have to take over at some point.
Wow!
Prime, you DO realize that after posting this comment, if CK flourishes you will HAVE to join the righteous over in the Kaepernick Fan Club, don’t you?
Tarzan, winning a Super Bowl will cure all. I just see so many obstacles for the kid to overcome in the next 3 games.
Who the frowfarbeesina is Tarzan?
undercenter
It would be.
But CK needs to win some division games here. You won’t go far if you can’t beat your divisional foes.
That game against the Hawks is probably for the Div crown. We both have stated how well this Div plays defense, and the Hawks are playing good offense. Next two weeks are hell weeks. We got to play good ball or this could get ugly.
I’ve said it a lot today. The next 2 weeks will grade how good our offense (AKA CK) really are. Against good teams.
In a way I like it. It’ll prove things one way or the other in a manner which couldn’t be proven playing against the Jags and Raiders if that were our schedule.
Its a really good matchup style wise where strength meets strength. Pats cant cover (especially the TE and the backs) but we dont throw to our RB and TE is hit or miss. All of their backers are big tough tackling guys who dont run sideline to sideline or cover well. Wilfork is a beast and we need to avoid running up the gut. Their safeties are below average in coverage but make a decent amount of plays on the ball because they are often in two deep zone. For all the ease with wich we beat BUF and NYJ the pats had issues with those teams. However they destroyed the Rams who beat us once and tied us another time. Their 3 losses are by a combined 4 points. They dont have a great pass rusher outside of C.Jones and generraly dont have a very fast D so runs to the outside should be sucessfull. On D WE HAVE TO STOP WWelker. He is the chain mover especcialy on 3rd down. If CR can slow him down (going to be tough, welker is a better slot Wr than amendola but not as much deep speed as v.Cruz)
We should be able to stop their run game. Their WR outside of welker and Hernandez are terrible. B.Loyd has been a huge dissapointment for them.
Cant wait to go. Just wish it wasnt a night game in late Dec. Great sign tho the ussually obnoxious fanboi pats fans are nervous about this one
Thanks for the insights Bos.
Well since Welker is on my fantasy team, maybe he can have a decent game and we still win… Seriously though, he has had a down year due to injuries and other reasons so hopefully he stays in check.
All good tuna.
Ive been waiting for this game for 2 years now, finaly the “9ers would kick ur @$$” no longer has to be a hypothetical argument with all my Pats fans co-workers and friends. Last time i went the honorable Rashaun Woods was plying his trade in our WR core. Pretty sure this is gona turn out differently.
AND COULD EVERYBODY PLEASE STOP CALLING BELLICHEK A DEFENSIVE GENIOUS
I know reputations die hard (ndomokin suh) but the pats have had the worst D over the last 5 years. since 2007 they have given up the most passing TD out of any team. They have allowed a ton of yards (not a great indicator but still) Their saving grace is they get turnovers but if u look at their D player by player its horrific. The only playmaker/above average player is Wilfork and their secondary is littered with guys no one wants, Arrington, gregory, chung. Talib is prob their best DB but he is a jag. Not to mention that over those 5 years the pats used 10+ picks in the first 3 rounds on Dbacks who sucked so much they’r out of the league or on the cusp of being out, D.Butler, T.Wheatly, J.Wilhight R.Dowling P.Chung etc, so its not like BB is getting trash that he can’t coach up.
Their strategy on D the last 5 years was to Score 35 points a game and hang on for dear life. That doesn’t sound like a D genious to me
Don’t hold back Bro, tell us what you really think! LOL!
Interesting points though.
hahaha did i do a poor job of hiding my disdain for them? its only because ive had thousands of why JM is better than TB and why BW was better than BB arguments. it brings my love (9ers) and my hate (pats) together in one place for my entertainment
The problem is personnel. Belichick the HC has been let down by Belichick the talent evaluator. Their defense is sprinkled with 2nd tier talent which is why they struggle quite often.
I thought the rules were clear – R*****n W***s is a vile profanity that shouldn’t be used in polite company. Or even here.
“its only because ive had thousands of why JM is better than TB and why BW was better than BB arguments.”
It is for this reason that I loathe the patsies more than DAL/STL/SEA combined.
Wow. I feel for you. I’ve had the same argument but I couldn’t take more than I already do. After I start with # of rings, record in a SB, stats in a SB and how “TB plays in a day that benefits the QB” or Let’s see TB throw 4 TD’s in the 4th qtr. after being sacked by arguably the best modern day D-line 6 times,” they usually shut up.
You’re handling it like a champ. Take care.
BOS, are you going to the game?
Rib
Yeah I was able to finagle a few tix but the sadistic bastard that sold them to me made me take the pats eagles preseason game too, At full price no less :(( Oh well the price we pay to see our team. I tried going to the NYJ game but the schedule wouldn’t allow it.
Faith
Thanks bro. the last deacade was a bit tough to take but I remind myself and everybody around me that TB has 3-4 years tops left and then its the start of the R.Mallet era and back to the abyss for the home team.
My go to argument is that TB started out being dilfer (121 yards in 1st SB win) and that vinatieri had all TB’s greatest SB moments, and by the time he reached greatness (06-present) theyre 0-2 in the SB. Not to forget 4-0 11td-0int etc etc
OK, cool. I got mine from stubhub. I’m sure my guy made a very pretty penny from me (at least I didn’t have to sit through a Pats pre-season game :/ ).
Going up on Saturday, spending the night right outside Foxboro, having dinner at Davios in Patriot’s Place. My first time there – why do I think Foxboro exists only for purpose of a stadium and the shopping mall that shares a parking lot with it?
Rib
Davio’s is fantastic. a bit pricey but delicious. Their risotto is the b@ll$$. Kraft did a really good job with Patriot Place. There is a movie theater, shops, restaurants and a bunch of other acutremonts to keep the ladies occupied while the men enjoy football
B. Loyd is on my fantasy team. No need to tell me what a disappointment he is. lol
The Harbaughs sure have the flair for dramatics, John just fired his OC with three weeks left in the season.
I didn’t see it but I read mention of a sideline something between those two during the game yesterday. I cant believe he’d make that kind of change 3 weeks from the tournament so whatever was said or done or not done must have really been pretty bad.
It sounded like player complaints as the reason. They got talent on the offensive side of the ball that wasnt being utilized – sound familiar?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000108775/article/john-harbaugh-takes-big-risk-by-firing-cam-cameron
I wonder if John backed him up? The Ravens are losing their identity. The pursuit of them becoming a passing team their mind-set is running is causing themto be wildly inconsistent.
DS as much as the Ravens are losing their identity we are trying to establish one. Not sure who is worse off but the Harbaugh egos are playing counterproductive to their teams this late in the season.
Cameron should have been fired 2 years ago. Still weird timing though
John was just jealous of Jim’s media attention so he did something to make the national media buzz and scratch their heads.
Snow. We don’t play in the white stuff and that culd be a big, big problem…
@IP
I grew up playing in the snow (late season even as a schoolboy), its not that big a deal. Even rain isn’t so bad. Its wind that will mess you up. A slick field for RBs and WRs is slick for LBs & DBs too.
Id say it favors a team who is tough physically and relys on the running game. So if anything it should favour us
Grant, what is the comparison on turnover differential? The Pats defense gets a lot of criticism but they sure take the ball away a lot.
Grant
I think that these numbers would be more useful if the league average numbers were included.
Welker may cause problems – like Amendola did in 1st Rams game
Grant how about a post on the 9ers penalty problems. Here in the bay area we talk alot about the raiders lack of discipline but i believe the 9ers are more penalized than the raiders. It also seems like the penalties are happening at the worst times. on a play that gains big yards or on D when we can least afford it. When i coached penalties were thought to be a product of no discipline do you have any thoughts on the subject
I was wondering if part of the problems with penalties is related to all the new faces on offence…
I also believe if the penalties keep up it could cost us in the playoffs where we will more than likely face more disciplined teams
Niners tied and lost to the Rams. Pats traveled across the Atlantic and destroyed them.
Bad comparison Moss. Divisional games are a different bird altogether. They see eachother twice a year. Those are generally hard fought close games. That is why the Rams and Niners matchups are such a close dog fight.
Look at the Patriots game against the Dolphins. Brady threw for under 240 with 1TD and 1Int. Barely beat them.
If our front four creates pressure we will be fine in that game. I’d be more worried if Gronk was back but he’s not.
And the Pats lost to Arizona. What happened when the niners played Arizona? enough said.
Our backup beat them? What’s your point?
bayareafanatic, my point was made in response to Moss who thinks it significant that the Pats beat the Rams easily while the niners had a hard time with the Rams.
That doesn’t tell the complete story since the niners beat Arizona easily (yes with our backup QB) and the Pats got beat by the Cardinals.
I think the niners win this upcoming game if the running game can keep Brady off of the field. The Pats have one of the weakest defenses the niners have played all year.
We will see. N.E. is 5th against the run and 28th against the pass….
Harbaugh likes to run it….
If the Niners win against NE, then they only need to win one of their final two games to get the division. One of those games is at home against Arizona.
You know, that Green Bay@Seattle game may end up being the deciding factor for the division crown.
Thanks for the stats, Grant. What would they look like for the Patriots without Gronk’s numbers?
It’s all moot unless Carlos can cover their slot receiver. Hopefully Welker can’t go on Sunday. Brandon Lloyd is questionable too so that may help.
The Patriots’ best two games this year have been wins at home over the Broncos and the Colts. Seems they rise to the occasion when they play good teams. Even if every team that plays them tries to bring their “A” game.
I have a feeling Rogers will cover Hernandez, not Welker. Rogers can’t keep up with Welker.
Grant whats your opinion on the 9ers penalty problems
Yes, that’s what all the players on the Giants said about Carlos when he was with the Redskins. Oh wait, that’s what they say about him now that he plays for the Niners too! How many chances is Carlos going to get anyway?!
You are in the locker room, Grant. Have you heard anything you can share about Carlos as a teammate?
This is going to be a true match of wits between the coaching staffs. Belichick has the clear advantage though, he made his bones scheming against the West Coast Offense when it was run by Walsh & Holmgrem.
Foaming
Not in the last 5 years or so. see my abowe post for an expanded answer
Great post Grant. Thanks for putting those stats together.
I’m hoping that average point differential favoring us will hold true.
I also think that since that Pats like a fast pace on offense, our defense will handle that better than some others because the 49er D line substitutes less that usual already, so the hurry up may not affect them as much.