Greg Cosell spoke on KNBR Thursday morning. Here’s what he said about the 49ers.
Q: What stood out to you in the 49ers win over the Dolphins?
COSELL: The 49ers ran 17 snaps in the pistol formation. 31 percent of their offensive plays were in the pistol. I think that’s indicative of the fact that the transition has likely been made, because when you go that heavy with pistol – which is obviously a function of Kaepernick – then I think you’ve moved in that direction.
Q: How effective was it against the Dolphins?
COSELL: It was very effective. Obviously the 50-yard touchdown to seal the victory came out of the pistol. They ran the same play the play before for just two yards, and then they came right back with it and that sealed the game. But I think the overriding point was how much they were in that formation.
Q: Can the 49ers succeed running the pistol that many times against the Patriots?
COSELL: I don’t feel the 49ers were aggressive with the pass game against the Dolphins. There were a couple of plays where I think Kaepernick maybe didn’t pull the trigger on throws that were there. My guess is in this game, they’re going to have to scheme some explosive plays in the pass game, because as good as the 49ers’ defense is – and it’s playing very well – I think it’s hard to go into Foxboro and think you’re going to win a 13-10 or a 17-13 game.
Q: Does the Patriots defense have a tendency to get beaten on explosive pass plays?
COSELL: Very much so early in the year. They changed dramatically with the acquisition of Aqib Talib, the cornerback. He did not play in the second half against Houston. I don’t know specifically at this moment what his status is for the game. But if he plays, he changes their defense dramatically. They play him in man-to-man coverage without any safety help much of the time, and that gives them extra bodies to defend all the other receivers. It’s what we used to call the Deion Coverage, for Deion Sanders, and now what I guess people called Revis Coverage, or Revis Island, where one corner plays man coverage with no help. The Patriots have done a lot of that since they acquired Talib.
Q: How is their pass rush?
COSELL: Better than people probably think. It’s not a dynamic pass rush, but they do have a pass rush, and they have players with versatility. Chandler Jones is now back, the rookie from Syracuse who missed a number of games. He’s a good pass rusher. Now when you get to the run game, they’re very good inside versus the run game with Vince Wilfork and Brandon Spikes. Spikes is a violent run defender for an inside linebacker. For people who looked at this defense early in the year and haven’t really taken note since, it’s better now.
Q: What do you think of the Patriots offense?
COSELL: They’ve transitioned quite a bit into a running team. Did you know the Patriots run the ball more than the 49ers? That happens to be true, and that’s not skewed by a running quarterback. The Niners running totals are skewed by the fact that they have a running quarterback now. The Patriots are a running team and they’re outstanding with run action with Brady under center. The Brandon Lloyd 35-yard touchdown on Monday night was a prime example. They had three tight ends, and they went with really hard run action. The safeties bit really hard, and Lloyd was wide open. It looked like a bust, but it was not a bust. Goldson, all this week I guarantee he’s being coached up, because Goldson is outstanding from the safety position playing downhill in the run game. He’s going to have to be a little careful, because if he keeps hitting that really hard they’re going to take advantage of that.
Q: How much of the Patriots’ weaponry is just the sheer matchup problem that Aaron Hernandez brings?
COSELL: Yeah, great point about Hernandez. The 49ers have to decide how they want to treat Hernandez, and when I say treat, this is what I mean – is he a tight end, or is he a receiver? In other words, do you play your base offense when he’s on the field with another tight end, or do you treat him as a wide receiver and play your nickel defense? That’s the first thing that Vic Fangio has to decide, and everything will flow from that.
Q: How do they stop Brady?
COSELL: The thing that Brady is so good at, just like Peyton Manning, they’re so good before the ball is snapped. They’re aware of where pressure is coming from. They set their protections to take care of it. Or if they know that there’s a player who their protection can’t block, they get rid of the ball before that player can get there. Brady is a master at recognizing defenses and manipulating defenses before the snap.
There are two schools of thought: Some people believe you don’t blitz Brady because you won’t get there, and you’re just wasting a defensive body. Other people you have to blitz him because you’ve got to hit him. I don’t know if that’s what Vic Fangio will do. The 49ers are not a high, high percentage blitz team, because they’re so good generating pressure out of their nickel with four rushers. Obviously, they’ve got Aldon Smith. It would not surprise me to see him line up over the guard, inside in the nickel to get him closer to Brady, and to get a more advantageous matchup.
Q: Is there a matchup that favors the 49ers in this game?
COSELL: Ultimately, when you’re the 49ers, and you’re a team that plays a certain way, I don’t think you can step outside of the way you play. Having said that, I still think explosive plays in the pass game, but hey, every team has explosive pass plays in their play book.
But you can’t go into this game saying, “We’ve got to all of a sudden win a shoot out, and we’re going to start throwing it all over the field and step outside of character.” Sometimes I think teams, when playing high scoring offenses, think, “Oh my God, we’ve got to score every time or we’re in trouble,” and they step outside of what they do. The 49ers are an extremely talented team, a very complete team, and they have to play 49er football. They can’t step out of what they do just because they’re playing a really good team on the road.
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I’m shocked, but I agree with Cosell here.
Also, in the last paragraph I think you meant to type saying in the first line.
“Did you know the Patriots run the ball more than the 49ers?”
Which is why the 49ers need to force the Patriots to make Brady be the one who beats them. The more Brady has to throw, the fewer points they score.
Cosell finally brings some truth and sense to the blog this week.
Cosell has always brought value to the blog. He’s a 30 year NFL film expert. The issue is that when Cosell was a critic of a certain player, some of the cronies didn’t like what they read…
Cosell is a blowhard who masquerades his observations as facts and analysis. I’m not saying he’s any more blowhardy than other commentators, but he is no more insightful or wise than most of the others. Yet somehow he is revered as some kind of genius.
And Bay, Your friend Cosell just called Kap a running QB. What are you going to do about it? I know that hurts your feelings ;)
@ dangle:
Some people (those who fancy themselves mind-readers) appreciate Cosell’s ability to read minds, divine play calls and magically determine QB progressions merely by watching film.
If he called him a running QB then that’s what he called him. While i disagree with Cosell, I’m not going to discredit him for it.
He’s an expert I’m not.
Bay,
I’m just thankful that Cosell is breaking down film on our best QB and not some backup that’s reached his ceiling. If Kap runs it 30 times for 30 yards and we win, I’m good with that. I just want us to threaten every blade of grass on the field. He does that, I’m good with that.
Wait a minute! Hold the presses! Bay just admitted he’s not an expert…
All in fun, Bay, all in fun…
23 hater now it’s all about winning. Wow you and Bay are so pathetic! When Smith was throwing for 180 yards you losers were saying pull the trigger, go deep Alex, don’t check down. Now Kap is doing the same thing and all you care about is winning.
Classic hypocrites at their finest. You guys are the biggest clowns on the blog!
“23 hater now it’s all about winning. Wow you and Bay are so pathetic! When Smith was throwing for 180 yards you losers were saying pull the trigger, go deep Alex, don’t check down. Now Kap is doing the same thing and all you care about is winning.”
Hard to argue this statement, cuz that’s exactly how it’s gone down in here. After the Bears game, people drooled for Kap, thinking every game we’d be airing it out.
Same formula as before, still producing wins with either guy, so discrediting #11 as a QB for producing similar stats doesn’t quite hold up.
Like I said many times Ed, fantasy football fans who do not understand the game. If you ever want to know nothing about football, ask 23 and Bay. They will lead you nowhere!
Ed,
We got a better QB now. Im just thankful we have a real QB back there. That other guy was killing me. Im sure you dont see the difference either. Take the rose Smith colored glasses off. Theyre killing your vision.
“That other guy was killing me.”
And dammit… he just didn’t go far enough.
Cosel acts like it a big scoop the Pats run the ball more than the 9ers of course they do teams that build up big leads run the living hell out of the ball in the 2nd half of games. In all of the 9ers super bowl years other than the first one they ran more than they passed. wow Grg big scoop you media buffoon
Old Coach,
That is true, but in the case of NE so much attention is paid to Brady that no one pays much attention to their run game. They are at their best when Brady is under center either handing off or using play action.
Look at their big wins, and a common thread is the inability of the opposition to get Brady out from under center by taking away the run.
Jack I predict whether NE wins or loses this week Brady will throw close to or more than 50 passes
Old Coach,
If the 49ers can force that to happen they will win.
I’d say Brady is at his best out of the gun, with a spread formation and a single back in the backfield.
And yes, the reason the Pats run the ball so much is because in the first half of most games, Brady typically rips defenses apart with the passing game.
I’d also add that the only way the Pats go with any serious semblance of a run game is if the 49ers go nickel or dime. Pats simply won’t run much at all against our base D.
Angus,
His big plays primarily come off play action. He might pick you apart from the gun, but rarely gets a big play from the gun.
While it is true they will run late to kill the clock, they are very effective running early in games, and if you don’t stop it they will kill you.
Pats had only 10 yards rushing and 16 points in the first half against the Fins two weeks ago, but came out after half and ran for over a 100 yards.
Mike,
They had 17 points in the 1st half in Miami, the first 7 coming after a fumble set them up at the Dolhpins 12. And yes they ran for a lot of yards in the second half, but this game proves my point.
The Patriots had Brady throw from under center on only 8 of his 40 attempts, and he ended up with only 238 yards and scored only 16 points after getting that early score.
Go back and look at their lower scoring games and there is a theme. Brady is throwing a lot more from the gun than he is from under the center. Many focus on only Brady when they look at the Patriots offense, but the way to hold him down is to take away the run and make him beat you.
*** “the first 7 coming after a fumble set them up at the Dolhpins 12, and the last 3 coming after another fumble set them up at the Dolphins 25.” ***
+1
Whats the weather in NE supposed to be Sunday?
Possible snow I’m hearing.
Yup Hov is right they changed it to rain.
Cold and rain
and blood…….gawd I can’t wait.
Kap played the Boise state game when it was 20 degrees. He will be just fine in N.E. Vernon is about to go off on the Pats this Sunday. Get YO popcorn ready! Lol
Look I’m sorry you honestly believe that Kaep is going to be the deciding factor in this game. If Kaep plays well but the rest of the team Kaeps the bed then it doesnt matter does it? A game in the snow will not be fun for the 49ers, the patriots in December won’t be a popcorn experience it will be a mouthwash experience to get the bad taste out of your mouth after you’ve puked so many times after seeing how your team got ravaged. Thats right I am saying it this weekened the 49ers are going to get an all out butt whippin, one because right now the patriots are the better team two because they have a better coach regardless how you feel about Harbaugh currently the patriots have the best coach in the NFL and those matchups usually come out bad for the niners.
Is this douchebag a Seahawks fan?
You are 23 Jordan
You are Matt Hasselbeck
Yes he is a Seahawks fan.
This game has me a bit worried. The offense is slowly getting stagnant and the defense has shown it can be gashed.
Odds makers have New England by 5.
I can’t bet against my team so I say we win by 3 but I’m not at all confident in this one.
http://ninerchatter.blogspot.com/2012/12/how-patriots-will-attack-pistol.html
Thanks for that Jack.
So the game comes down to whether Kaptain America can throw on the patriots defense, at least better than tebow (not saying much). In theory I know he can, but we haven’t seen it displayed very much recently. If i’m being optimistic I think that JH has been hiding the passing game in recent weeks, against lesser opponents, with the bigger goal of unleashing it against real teams, and games that matter, like this one and the next one. But i’ve been fooled before.
@ Jack:
Another excellent posting. Thanks for sharing. How much comfort should I take in the fact that Belichick doesn’t have much film of the 49ers’ version of the pistol offense?
Claude,
There is enough film on it for him to come up with a scheme for it. I would take comfort in knowing that Kapernick is almost 180 degrees different from Tebow, and he is going to have a very good game on Sunday night. The throws are going to be there…
Thanks Jack. I hope you are right.
@ Jack:
You probably already knew this, but, if not, check it out:
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/12/pistol-formation-roman-learned-at-the-foot-of-the-master.html
Excellent as usual jack.
How do you think the Pats will play the single back pistol with Kaep 4 yards behind center and Gore another 3 yards directly behind Kaep. Not only can Gore run to either side from this formation, but it seems to me a couple of successful run fakes early in the game from this formation should cause the Pats D to lose much of its agressiveness the rest of the way.
Rick,
I think the read option from the pistol with a single back will be defended like they show in the 2nd set of pictures.
The beauty of the pistol compared to shotgun is it opens both sides like you say and gives the offense another beat or two of an advantage.
Gore and James should both be effective this week.
Nice job Jack. I’d like to see explosive offensive plays, but that may not happen via the passing game – for either team – due to weather conditions. Forecast: rain/snow.
And with all that said Jack… 49ers 27 Patriots 23.
Book it!
@bayarea i believe R. Jaworski is an expert. I believe J. Gruden is an expert. I believe C. Casserly is an expert. I believe M. Lombardi is an expert. I believe that T. Dilfer and S. Young are experts. What other than he is the nephew of the mouth that roared makes G. Cosell an expert. I believe you and I have as much expertise as G. Cosell.
Cosell had a pretty good gig when he was one of the few with access to the coaches film. He’ll proably trade on that reputation for a while until he fades away.
Some time around mid 2011 season Cosell made the astonishing observation “you know, the 49ers have a pretty good front 7… I have it on TAPE… did I mention I watch alot of TAPE?” Cosell was the master at stating the obvious. Another east coast talking head with nothing new to say.
This season (since KNBR practically has him on payroll) he’s become more familiar with the 49ers. I’ve softened my stand on him (a little) this season.
That said, Cosell just missed the biggest issue with the 49ers the last two games… poor pass blocking.
Keys to victory (or just hanging in there) in New England – Offense:
- Pass Protection
- Ball security with the new skill players (Kaepernick, James, Jenkins)
- Productivity from catchers not named Crabtree
- Chew clock, move the sticks, limit Brady’s snaps
Keys to victory (or just hanging in there) in New England – Defense:
- Pass rush up the middle
- Disrupt passing lanes on Brady’s 3-step drops
- Stop the run
- Limit RAC on those quick slot passes
- Getting off the field after 3rd down plays
Brodie, I agree that for all the times Cosell’s said the word “tape” you’d think he’d have been a bit more familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the 49ers. I find that generally his analysis is banal, glib and superficial. In other words, perfect for his job.
>>Another east coast talking head with nothing new to say.
Here on the east coast, I never hear him. The only knowledge I have of him is from Grant’s columns, transcripts from the KNBR broadcasts. Can we help it if west coast rubes are so easily taken in? ;)
Old Coach, your right on. Even so called experts are only giving their opinion and one mans opinion is as good as any other mans opinion.
Better hope Seattle loses this week. I think the 49ers are going to get killed Sunday. Kaepernick has been beaten in his head. Bill will probably dial up exotic defenses stuff to confuse the rookie and take out our offense. I expect turnovers due to confusion. Only way we win is if our defense steps up like they did against the Bears and Saints.
Go throw a rock off the bridge over 80…
One thing for sure, at Tom’s age, he doesn’t like getting smaked around. He never has and it gets him visibly upset these days. Even if they don’t sack him, the Niners need to lay the wood on him at every opportunity.