Everyone is passionate about the quarterback controversy, and a lot of people feel that Alex Smith was done an injustice.
I’m not here today to argue one way or another. I would like to point out one thing to keep the discussion grounded in fact.
Pro Football Focus grades quarterback performances game-by-game. A “zero” is average, a positive number is a good grade, and a negative number is a bad grade.
Alex Smith’s best game according to PFF was the Bills game. Smith posted a +5.3 pass rating – an astronomical score on their scale.
Smith’s second best game was against the Packers – he posted a +2.0 pass rating. His average pass rating per game this season is 0.49.
Since Kaepernick became the starting quarterback, he has posted a pass rating above +2.0 in every single game. He had a +4.8 pass rating against the Bears, a +2.7 against the Saints and a +3.2 rating against the Rams in what has become a very controversial game.
That’s a +10.7 total pass rating over the last three games – the best rating in the NFL over that stretch.
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His pitch/fumble, and the missed call on the safety overshadowed an otherwise strong performance.
He might have had a good day playing catch with his receivers but did his actions overall help us win or lose?
He didn’t throw or run for a TD and he had a turnover that directly led to points that ultimately cost us the game. I’m glad he had a high passer rating but it doesn’t count for anything if you lose, period.
Coffee yes he made a mistake, but he also put the team in position to win the game also and Akers Didnt finish. Look at the 3rd and longs this kid is getting. It’s not like he has 5 td’s and 5 ints/to. They’re going to happen. He hasn’t thrown 3 picks in a game like smith did. And for smith that was not normal. It happens at times.
Coffee,
His actions did both. His play cost the team the lead, and his play also gave them back the lead.
He does have to bear some responsibility. So does Greg Roman, Delanie Walker, the offensive line, David Akers, and Dashon Goldson.
Jack you forgot the refs. They gave the rams two points
CK was responsible for that as well Jack. If you don’t want a controversial call then don’t put yourself in the position for that to happen.
Gifting the Rams 10 points is not a solid performance Jack. Smith would have been roasted for such a performance and rightfully so. Numbers don’t matter if the mistakes cost you the game.
Jack
Strong performance? He had two drives all game and they were great drives and thats where most of the 3rd down conversions came from. All other drives failed. I dont see the pitch thing as a big deal other then the fact it failed. Roman, Harbaugh, CK, and Ginn failed on that play. Two huge mental mistakes the perceived safety and running out of bounds is enough to elimante a strong performance. Face it, it was a terriable loss one for the books and what will be rememberd is CK was at the helm.
We had like 3 drives in a row where we lost yardage.
Jack. Get real. That was horrible. All the other drives only produced 13 points?! 1 TD. Explain how that is good or average or even below average.
That was the bottom rung stink game (on the offense) that I’ve seen in all my years of watching the Niners play.
“I dont see the pitch thing as a big deal other then the fact it failed.”
What? Without that play failing we most likely are not having this discussion at all.
jack
If CK scores more points when the Niners had the opportunity, that pitch means nothing.
First half ended 7-0. We dominated in all phases but offense. That falls on CK. Had he shown his “explosiveness” or actually played like AS, we score more than 7 points in that first half. If the AS who showed up for AZ showed up here, the game is over and CK takes snaps in the second half in mop-up duty.
Jack
That pitch play was a bad call, Roman, bad coaching, Harbaugh, bad execution, CK, bad hustle, Ginn. Too many factors to get upset about. The mental part or better known as game manageing is crucial and too me thats what diminishes CKs performance against the Rams. That pitch play was bad no doubt but it involves 4 people that didnt do there job. Game manageing is paramount to success. CK didnt do well as a game manager. He will get better at that.
DS,
“That was the bottom rung stink game (on the offense) that I’ve seen in all my years of watching the Niners play.”
This absurd statement explains it all to me right there. Your posts are written with a blatant agenda and if you actually believe what you have written, then you are either a recent fan or must have missed the last 8 years of this team on offense.
BS is truly BS. Go back and watch Alex Smith last year in Detroit. He was atrocious! And they still won the game.
@23jordan:
No one knows b/s as well as you.
23jordan says:
August 6, 2012 at 6:56 am
Josh Johnson will be the 2nd string QB on this team. Kap is not the answer.
Welched on any more bets lately? Told any more lies?
Because he came through 23. Next!
Smith has looked pretty mediocre in some of our wins this year too, Jorden. He was nothing special against the Vikings, Jets and Seahawks and horrible in the Giants game. Thats half of the games he started.
The whole team looked horrible against the Vikings and Giants Jsand, not just Smith. And in the Jets and Seahawks games the offense went in with the gameplan to run the ball down the opposing defense’s throat. Also throw in the fact that the CBs for those two got away with holding onto our receivers for most of each game. Smith wasn’t great in the Jets or Seacheats games, but there were other factors that had a effect on them, just like factors affected CK this past Sunday. But excusing one QB for those factors while blaming the other is unacceptable!
That my point Midwest. Ive never stated that CK had a good game, but to not hold AS up to the same scrutiny as CK is hypocritical. CK had a couple of bad mistakes but so did other players on the team. After all that, he still put us in the position to win.
CK is our QB because of 2 specific things, his 3rd down efficiency and ability to make the dynamic play. You trade rookie mistakes for the dynamic play ability. Otherwise its the same offense.
Sorry about that Jsand. I do agree with you on that.
I firmly 100% believe that if it was Alex Smith in the game you honestly wouldn’t not be calling it an otherwise strong performance. If it had been Alex I believe yourself, others and especially Grant would absolutely be pegging the loss directly on his shoulders and would be pointing to the plays that I am as proof in the same way I am towards Colin.
I realize it’s just a blog but the lack of objectivity is unfortunate.
“wouldn’t not”
damn i need an edit button.
Coffee,
I would ask you to go back and find a post from me where I said Smith absolutely cost the team the game.
I have said in the past that his actions contributed to the loss, just as I have done here.
Coffe,
I can’t see Smith having that kind of game so you really can’t compare the two. Try this. Take out the 3 glaring mistakes and tell me how you think Kap played? Without the mistakes, you’d call his game a pretty good game. 275 yards of total offense when he didn’t get any help from our running game, which is our strength. We don’t get that kind of production from the other guy with that pass rush the Rams had. They owned our O line.
The comparisons are useless now because that other guy is not coming back. If you think this game was a bad game from the QB, then you know he won’t be worse next game. Yet JH stayed with him for this week. That should tell you and the others that its time to start moving forward and thinking about Niner football with Kap. The other guy is DONE as a Niner.
So, other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
Kaepernick also finished the week 7th in ESPN’s QBR. This rating accounts for both rushing and passing.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83548/qbr-ranks-wilson-kaepernick-oh-my
Based on Claudes previous posts, this is a strong indicator that he is a very good QB. Based on Claude backing Smith up repeatedly using this data.
Bay,
I don’t think Claude has stated otherwise.
QBR is a joke. Go back to last season for Tebow’s great QBR rating from making just two passes to see evidence of that.
The QBR is skewed. They give him credit for the 50 yd run, but the botched pitch to TG is called an abort and not included in the analysis. Ridiculous.
The botched pitch was accounted for Hofer:
“Still expected to win: The fumble and ensuing touchdown return by the Rams’ Janoris Jenkins dropped the 49ers’ win probability from 90.3 percent to 61.7 percent. The 49ers were still favored to win because the Rams needed a two-point try to tie.”
@ Jack:
You are correct. I haven’t.
Jack, it wasn’t calculated into the QBR.
@ Jack:
Hofer is correct.
Strange situation: QBR relies, in part, on official play-by-play data from the NFL. The league scored Kaepernick’s fumble as an aborted play, disregarding the role Kaepernick’s errant pitch played in the turnover. As a result, QBR did not “blame” Kaepernick as much as it would have blamed him ideally. This will happen in rare cases, skewing the QBR score for a single game.
From http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83548/qbr-ranks-wilson-kaepernick-oh-my
“QBR did not “blame” Kaepernick as much as it would have blamed him ideally.”
It was taken into account, but not to the level that it would have had it been an interception return for a TD.
@ JAck:
Oops, I blew through that too quickly. You are correct that it was taken into account, but not like it should have been.
OK so it lowered the win probability! Not directly a ding to the QB that caused the error.
Hofer,
Win probability as it relates to the play of the QB is a major piece of the QBR, that you don’t get in the NFL rating system.
Jack,
The point is they are changing that aspect of the QBR that I mentioned is a weakness. Nice try though. ; )
Hofer,
There are a number of tweaks they are making to make it reliable data and that is one of them. Good stuff!
Jack is funny you mentioned that because i was thinking the same. If the saftey call was overturned or if he did not make the mistake of pitching the ball to Ginn or even if D Walker would have caught his td pass we would have been 9-2 right now! I just hope he learns and grows from this past game. GO NINERS
“I just hope he learns and grows from this past game.”
I trust that all involved will learn something from this game that will pay dividends down the road this season.
Irrelevant until we see what CK can do against teams that have a gameplan that contains him during a long stretch. Can he adapt and get better? That’s what I want to see. Numbers mean squat and results mean everything.
He personally Didnt do enough to win an ugly game last week?
MD, Smith has had similar stats before in a losing effort and it was said he didn’t do enough personally to win, so what makes CK the exception here? It’s a two-way street, not a WE LOST BECAUSE OF SMITH and WE LOST DESPITE CK street. Fair is fair.
Uh, the Rams contained him and sacked him and hurried him. They have a losing record.
You are interested in seeing him play against a winning team?
You guys are missing what I’m saying. I want to see what he can do when a team takes away the deep pass and make his run game irrelevant. I want to see if he can adapt and lead the team to victory. Sunday’s result hopefully will help him do so.
Uh oh!!!! Strike up the Smithers hate wagon. Oh and he is 2-1 also. This just verifies that ck CAN game manage check down and keep it safe like Alex smith can. This is where harbaughs decision come into play. The upswing. So ck can be as good as AS plus stretch the field and run like a champion to get out of trouble. 3rd and longs aren’t impossible anymore. And redzone td’s are easier to score. He is the total package waiting to get some experience and then its trouble for the league. He’s halfway there already. The kid is a small upgrade right now, but the more he plays the bigger the upgrade is going to be. Harbaugh is no dummy.
Evidence points to the contrary MD: in the Rams game he was challenged in the “game management” category.
-Ran 17 yards backwards into the endzone before throwing – sure, the refs blew this one by calling it a safety, but there is no reason to run that far backwards. His confidence in his athletic ability hurt him there. He’s not in college anymore where he’s faster than most. This is the NFL where everyone is fast and he’ll have a hard time outrunning pash rushers, especially when he’s having to slow down to plant and throw.
-Botched a poor play call by tossing the ball over Ginn’s head. Sure, blame can be placed on GR for calling this play in the first place, but he’s responsible for the execution of the play. GR didn’t toss the ball too high.
-Went out of bounds instead of going down in bounds on the run late in the game, causing the clock to stop and giving the Rams more time to come back.
By themselves these could be minor issues, and there are certainly other problems from that game (Akers’ kick and Walker’s drop), but put them together it certainly hurt the team’s chances at a win.
I think a lot of the “hate” going on is again because of the small sample size. Just like many went over the top in their praise of CK after the Bears game, the opposite is happening after the Ram’s game because of his gaffes.
Calistoga red,
Please watch the safety play again. You will see that there is a reason for CK to have dropped “17 yards backwards”. It was a play action pass and by the time he faked it and turned to throw, he was already 10 yards-plus behind the line. Im not sure if he deserves the amount of flak he is getting for that play too..
Why call a play that takes that long to set up and has him drop at least 10 yards back at that part of the field when the Rams rush was to hard to hold? I wish Roman would use the quick slant a little more often than he does, especially when the CBs were giving so much room.
JS – that’s not the only time he ran back like that in the game. For a team that is built for ball control and field position battles you can’t find yourself running that far back, regardless of the reasoning.
To me that’s one of the biggest learning curves for so called “running QB’s” or “athletic QB’s”. They’re used to being able to outrun the opposing team’s defenders, but at this level everyone is fast so the “athletic” factor gets mitigated, especially once a good D coordinator has a chance to game plan for it. To me that’s why most running QB’s do well initially, but never really become the elite QB’s historically.
Well, i think that your first mistake is to consider CK a running QB. A typical running QB’s first move would be to run first, not check the defense to make audibles. CK comes to the line with an idea, checks the defense and changes the offense accordingly. The times he has been running are when the play completely breaks down and there are defenders already in his face. I repeatedly see him spreading the ball around and going to second reads.
JS – don’t get so hung up on my using the term “running QB”. I don’t know how others use it, but I look it as QB’s are either pocket passers or running QB’s. You wouldn’t see Brady or Brees galloping down the field the way CK did for his big run, but you could see Newton, RGIII, or Vick do it. To me running QB’s bring an added element to the game that pocket passers don’t because of their overall greater athletic skill, but we have yet to see one put it all together other than our own SY. It seems to me that many of them try to get by a little too much on their athletic ability and that’s where they get in trouble.
CR,
Well said.
CR, Hofer,
Whats not to agree? I agree with you with the definition of running QB. You’re arguing two different things. But that’s not what I was saying. I’m not lumping in CK with the prototypical running QB and you are. Just because CK busted open a 50 yard run, doesn’t mean he isnt a pocket passer.
I’m no expert but shouldn’t you be using the average and not the total to determine the pass rating over the last 3 games?
The average would be 3.57, still an average way above AS but only over a 3 game sample.
I think we want a QB who has great statistics, and a coach who says “It was a winning-quarterback performance” when we loose.
Who needs a QB that can take you to the SB when all this excitement is going on!?!?
WOW!
I’m so relieved CK is the highest rated passer. Much more important than, you know, being a game manager which is 70% of the job, or, you know, scoring points. Or you know, not running back 17 yards to get a Safety for the other team.
But that passer rating! Defenses are scared of that. Warn Miami.
Grant. Really. Why don’t you analyze this utterly stupid rating. A rating is not remotely relevant to performance when the QB in question scored only 7 points in a half where the ball was on the opponent side of the field, and only 1 TD the whole game.
Stop taking the easy way out and delve into the rating system and how it missed every bad thing CK did. You can’t get great rating and only score a single TD. The logic behind this is simple. Stats suck. Points win games and CK didn’t score near enough when he was given ample opportunity time and time again. He won’t get a defensive performance like that every week. He can’t waste it. He did.
Who do you want in there then BS? AS is done. Politically JH cannot put AS back in. He is done in SF.
You and your inability to stop mentioning your pillow pet AS cracks me up.
HE IS THE BACKUP NOW BS. STOP TALKING ABOUT THE BACKUP. This room is for 49er fans that back the team. Meaning the players that are playing. The coach too. You are a pathetic fan. Whoops, not a fan at all.
Why were you here then when Alex was playing? You have zero credibility. Zero.
Yes, I’d say he is done here as well. But he will have options. There will be 5-6 HC and GM openings during the offseason. AS will again make a boat load of money and may end up in a very good situation if he chooses wisely. I don’t feel sorry for him in the least.
@ bay:
This room is for 49er fans that back the team. Meaning the players that are playing.
Except for last year. And the first 8 games this year.
No, you’re not a hypocrite.
ESPN’s Mike Sando said it best in the power rankings, which amazingly the Niners are 4th: Every game from here on out is a referendum on Harbaugh’s choice for QB. So whether Alex is on the bench or not, this is now the story, where the only way to silence the noise is for CK to perform at a higher level then Alex, to put up more points and make more great plays and less bonehead mistakes.
If you watch the the Monday Night Game, that was a clear demonstration of GREAT COACHING by Mike Shanahan.
RG3 was put in a position to win, CK was not. Also, RG3 stayed in bounds to stop the clock.
Gee, if CK had not done one of three things, the Niners would have a W.
This is not about Alex but about CK.
When are people going to start calling for Tolzien?
@DS:
Just because bay is an unrepentant raging hypocrite doesn’t mean you have to mimic his behavior. Perhaps you enjoy giving bay a taste of his own medicine by unfairly attacking the team’s starting QB, minimizing his accomplishments and overemphasizing his shortcomings, but it gets old for the rest of us.
Yeah, Kaepernick made some costly mistakes Sunday, but he is a second year player and it was just his third start. Cut the kid some slack; he’s going to get better. Moreover, as others have mentioned, he wasn’t all bad, and did some good things too. He remained composed after the disastrous pitch play and led the team down for the go ahead field goal. The 99+ yard drive in the third quarter also showed more maturity and competence than one would normally expect from such a young player.
The fact is that defenses appear to adjusting to him. That was expected. It’s now up to the 49ers to make counter adjustments. I suspect they will. Again, given his inexperience, Kaep is only going to get better. He is not without impressive skills.
If you’re upset because you don’t think Kaepernick should be starting and/or that the QB switch unnecessarily endangered the 49ers’ Super Bowl chances, then your beef is with Harbaugh, not with Kaepernick. Kaepernick didn’t make the switch; Harbaugh did.
Kaepernick is the 49ers’ starting QB. By all accounts, he works hard and is a team first guy. Be a better fan than bay, jordan, Nick, Neal, etc. and support him, if for no other reason than the fact that he is a 49er.
/soapbox
Claude,
Your post above is nicely put. I agree entirely.
claude
We were the best team . Now we score 1 TD. I’m not cutting anybody any slack. I said last week it won’t be fair, but we are losing what we had for what? Do you remember AS or any other Niners QB losing a game where the D threw a shutout almost all game to a team that isn’t exactly Super Bowl bound? I don’t.
I said D’s would adjust and didn’t get too giddy following the Bears game because I knew this would happen. And don’t give me any crap about how I knew.
So what if CK had a few nice plays? If you watch any game every QB/player will. Big deal. He didn’t when we needed them most. JH dumped AS who was scoring/winning more and he isn’t getting any get out of jail for free cards today. Guys like FG/JS, they may not have a lot of time left. My favorite players. And JH is risking their chances to win a Super Bowl by playing CK over AS. That ain’t right. Nothing about the Niners is right since the injury. Last year we were the most complete and unified team. Are we this year? I don’t think so. You?
Also there is some sarcasm here. This is a blog. Don’t take it like life or death.
Tell me claude/C15, have you ever felt worse after a regular season loss? Because I haven’t. Karma was bad all week due to JH, and this is what happened. Like an oceanliner about to hit the dock. I can see it coming. Try to warn others, but it is no good.
PS
I’ve many times said this lies on JH. And voted JH in the poll.
Wow,
can’t believe I am saying this. BRAVO CLAUDE…
+1 Claude. Well said.
Claude,
You finally did it! You actually had an individual thought cross your mind. I’m looking through the archives and I cant see anything that you cut n pasted in that post. Damn, that was pretty good. Signs that you may be turning the corner. Are you sure some bully didn’t take your Alex Smith jersey from you on the way home from work last night?
At any rate, you told BS the truth because the alien is struggling like Hofer is with this. At least Hofer’s comments are backhanded because he’s secretly in denial. BS just can’t help itself! I’m thankful you and Red Ribico are getting better. Talk to new Smithers Mark and Josh. Tell them Smith is out, like break dancing and pagers! Remember, in the famous words of Hofer, ” All Arrrows Up!”
Don’t ride him Jordan, he may never stick his neck out again.
For the record Claude never seemed like a Smither. He was focused on calling out BS lol, and debating…
Remember, in the famous words of Hofer, ” All Arrrows Up!”
It’s amazing that you never once attempted to say this when the team was 6-2 but instead chose to focus on a QB you hated. And only now do you say it when a new QB comes in. Pure class 23.
>>All Arrrows Up!
Except where the offense is concerned it’s been all arrows down lately.
Golly, I miss the good old days when the haters where the ones “keeping it real”. When they were always the ones to throw water on a good Niner win. And if they did lose, it was always due to the QB’s play, not the “team” or the coaching. I do miss those days.
Midwest,
I’m all in because we have a QB with limitless potential that I believe we can win a super bowl with. I’m as happy as an antelope with night vision glasses!( As the commercial says!) I told you that we needed someone to replace what’s his name. So yes, in the words of Pablo Sandoval, “Me is happy!” lol.
So you only go all in if the Niners put in a player you want despite a great team record? Good to know 23. Unlike you, I’ll support my team no matter what and wish for everyone to succeed.
Way to keep it fair and real Claude. Now I don’t think you’re a smither. You just like *ucking with people. Lol
I have to say that, that was the best comment you’ve ever made. And for that I will focus on the team instead of smacking bs everyday. Because if you can do that everyone else should do the same. GO NINERS!!!!
Oh and bs…. Told you people that usually have your backs can’t figure out how to help the crap you spew.
Ok last time. Lol
But ds…. We only scored 1 td against the Seahawks, and nine against the Giants. Take it easy! It has nothing to do with the scoring it has to do with smith not playing. And you know it.
DS – The Alex bitterness pain stings like an open wound. Stop rubbing salt in the wound and you will start the healing process.
“Project aleX” did not work. Get over it.
Call it quits on the negativity and be a Niner fan like I thought you were.
Grant, you quote PFF for their QB grading. Yet, when it comes to the offensive line you graded them a D, when PFF graded them out as 4 of 5 offensive linemen having a good game.
“The 49ers have had the league’s best offensive line this season, and four of the five starters were getting it done again today. The one blemish on that performance came from LG Mike Iupati, who struggled in pass protection in the game and had a mixed day with his run blocking.” Seems inconsistent.
Inconsistent is consistent by Grant though. If that makes you feel any better Jdilla.
CK deserves to be roasted for a few boneheaded mistakes, no problem.
But when it continues to come from the same group that gave him little credit for his game against the Bears, I have to conclude that nothing outside of starting AS will quell their discontent.
It is what it is.
Harbaugh, CK, and the whole team I’m sure is moving on to Sunday’s game.
What I have a problem with AES is that those who called the Smith stats inexcusable are the same ones who are excusing similar CK stats. That’s a bias right there. I don’t care who the starting QB is, but blasting one while praising the other for similar stats is unacceptable.
Kaepernick’s stats for his 3 starts are still better than Smith’s from his 8 starts.
(I am excluding the first Rams game only because they are partial game stats.)
Kaepernick’s PFF composite pass rating over three starts: 10.7
Alex Smith’s PFF composite pass rating over ten starts: 4.9
Kaepernick has doubled Smith’s production in a third of Smith’s starts, according to PFF.
He’s a running QB, he gets production and higher grades for his running. AS doesn’t run in volume. This is where pocket passers get dinged because they don’t get extra credit to increase their rankings. Again, skewed for fantasy numbers.
PFF’s pass rating does not factor in runs.
Agreed. I guess that’s what makes this interesting.
Hofer CK is more than a running QB. The difference is his ability to pass and run. Hopefully he can make alot of people eat crow in the future. GO CK and the niners
Grant, I’m not sure what you mean when you say Kaep’s doubled Smith’s production in only a third of the starts.
For what it’s worth, our points scored/game (ie. “production”) is over 3 points per game less with Kaep than it was with Smith.
Not to be rude Grant, but those numbers are skewed due to Smith having more starts. When CK has the same number of starts then an argument can be fairly made.
Grant, I should have stated that I wasn’t referring to PFF, since it was the discussion in the thread. I was referring to the QBR.
Got it.
>>composite pass rating over three starts
Key stat right there.
The kid has one ‘bad’ game and seems some people here believe he ‘JaMarcus Russell’ type stunk it up. He’s a talent, and outside of a couple of bad plays he actually played quite well. I’d rather that type of bad game than what we saw against the Giants this season… now there is bottom rung stinker stuff.
There’s been some posts that he only managed 13 points which isn’t good enough – true, but the Rams defense played very well and he got next to no support from the running game. 49ers haven’t done so well in recent years when the running game is a non-factor, no matter who is behind centre. There were a lot of third and longs, and the fact that Kap was still able to extend drives, convert some big third downs should not be overlooked.
You are so right!!! It’s funny. Some people here called other bloggers a hater for expressing their opinion about Alex Smith but now they will trash CK all day! CK is still a rookie QB with very limited NFL game time experience. He will make mistakes and hopefully learn from it.
I personally like Alex and hope we keep him in some capacity however whomever JH chooses to be our QB will have my support. GO NINERS and CK
Chicago – that’s the problem: “CK is still a rookie QB with very limited NFL game time experience. He will make mistakes and hopefully learn from it.” This is not the time to make the switch from an established vet unless the rookie is better than the vet. So far we haven’t seen enough of CK to know that for sure as fans. He had a GREAT game against the Bears to get us all excited, but since then he’s been different than AS, but the ultimate results have been inconclusive, leaving many of us crossing our fingers that this move doesn’t backfire.
Do you think Harbaugh gives Kaepernick any extra cushion due to experience?
I don’t.
C Red, as a fan i agree with you but if the coaching staff believes this is the right move then so be it! I am just a San Francisco Forty Niners football fan and do not know anything about the dynamics of the team and the potential with each QB. I assume a very successful coach with NFL playing experience can make the right judgment!!! And I hope to god he is right!
@ Jack:
Do you think Harbaugh gives Kaepernick any extra cushion due to experience?
To the extent he is willing to live through growing pains while getting Kaep playoff ready relatively quickly, yes. If getting into the playoffs is put in jeopardy, however, no.
Everyone can see he is a better QB than Smith. While the Smithites will try and use this last game as a gauge, the facts are:
1) The safety was an error on the officials part. (You would think that kind of scoring play should be reviewable too)
2) The gameplan was extremely conservative, maybe because the O-Line was playing terribly and the Rams were in the backfield almost immediately.
3) Kap did his part to help the 49ers win. He threw a perfect ball that was dropped 2 yards from the end zone.
4) The pitch was bad a bad, both from the coaches decision to get “fancy” so close to the endzone and in execution. If you watch that play carefully Kap is trying to draw defenders in and does this no look pitch so Ginn can get some yards. Conversely Ginn should also have tried harder to jump on the ball instead of trying to make a play.
5) The coaches were playing not to lose towards the end of the game: aka they were too comfortable too soon. When the 49ers let teams stay in it, they tend to lose.
Nothing that was shown in that game is a flaw in Kap, they are all things that with proper coaching can be corrected. Fortunately we still have many games to be up to 100% and I have no doubt that they will be firing on all cylinders when they need to.
Oh, stop with the excuses, already….he ran 25 yards backwards into his own endzone with defenders hot on his heels. Dumb play, he knows it. Why you don’t know that is your problem, I guess.
Kaep didn’t play great, he’d be the first to tell you. I think he’s capable of playing much better than that, and I think he will. But for the love of Pete, stop with the excuses.
I agree, Angus, but technically, I don’t think they’re excuses. They’re “Kaepologies”.
1 game of Kaepologies, is far better than 5 years of Alexcuses.
1. whats he doing in the endzone? oh thats right extending the play.
2. its always been conservative
3. drops have plagued this team all year
4. bad play calling, bad coaching, bad execution, bad hustle
5. playing not to lose is this teams theme all year.
6. you forgot this one – running out of bounds
+1 on #6. I was screaming at the TV, “why the hell are you running out of bounds”. He should have slid.
Clearly Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell have better raw QB skills that Smith.
So does Michael Vick.
Expect, unlike Kap, their raw talents didn’t show on the field.
Against the Rams? For real? The defense can’t always play like superheroes. All Kaepernick needed to do was:
1. Not run ALL the way back into the end zone and then earn a safety.
2. Toss the ball above his receivers head two yards from his own end zone for a TD.
3. Manage the clock properly so the Rams could not come back and tie the game.
The guy directly caused opponents scoring. He essentially gave the game away himself. What part of this could you possibly deny and misunderstand?
I would rather have Manning than Smith, who could blame me? But I would rather have Smith than Kaepernick, because right now Smith’s intangibles are superior to Kaep’s Cam Newton like fleeting appeal.
Tell that to our O-Line. “It’s just the Rams”. All the 49ers had to do, even with everything you mentioned, was catch one perfectly placed ball for a touchdown, game over.
Alex Smith cost us the game when the Giants were in town. 3 INT’s 1 game, Really? Where was the game manager that is secure with the ball then? Guess what, perfect play from any side of the ball is impossible.
So why do some excuse one while blaming the other? That makes absolutely no sense.
Josh,
You’d rather have what’s his name instead of RoboKap. However, remember when your mom used to tell you, “NO, you CAN’T have that! That’s the situation right now. Kap is the starter and what’s his name is DONE!
@23told-us-kap-wasn’t-the-answer:
I’ll bet his mother also told him not to lie and not to welch on bets.
Obsessed much 23?
That ‘rating’ system is certainly got it’s own issues, even PFF acknowledges that, so take it with a huge grain of salt, just like you should take Smith’s very, very good numbers.
Incidentally, what’ was Smith’s rating in the ‘Zona game? I find it hard to believe that wasn’t his second highest rated game.
Agree again, Angus. If this article isn’t rock solid proof that “stats are for losers”, then I guess we’ll never see it. Kaep was the league’s highest rated passer, after THAT performance? I guess they must also count the points the QB gives to the other team.
Bogus.
It’s a very small sample size. Like I mentioned yesterday, when a QB gifts another team 10 points, the rating should not be high because anyway you look at it, it contributed to the loss.
Hof
Thats why I very rarely use stats they dont always tell the whole story.
Under,
I agree. The only stat that matters is W/L.
I look at the turnover stat it can be a good indicator for wins/losses. I have tried to use Grants performance on critical downs stat. I cant see that stat as being viable as of yet. Maybe I am not interpeting it correctly.
Wasn’t it the Anti-Smith camp that constantly degraded stats like these because they don’t paint the whole picture? The stats that matter the most are wins and losses, and turnovers as they have historically contributed to wins and losses. A QB could theoretically pile up 400 yards, moving the ball through the air from their own 10 to the 50 on ten drives in a game, but scoring no points when the drive stalls. He could even gain more, moving it further only to lose the ball on a turnover. You need points to win, not completions, not yards. It doesn’t matter how you get them, you just need them and this is where the offense as a whole failed on Sunday.
Yes you need points to win and when the biggest reason why the team won a lot of games last year (Akers) is not performing the same, then your not going to get those close ones.
TCE good breakdown.
Now most importantly, the next game. Jake Long out at LT … how many sacks will Aldon Smith rack up this week? Will he break the record that shouldn’t be Strahan’s to begin with? Am I the only one who thought Bret Favre’s planned roll out fall down was bush league?
Would suck to see the attendance go down, especially with the new stadium, because a 49er coach needed to prove a point to himself and in the process throw the season out the window. Who can trust a team that values other things over winning? I get risk, I think Kaepernick can be good, but his performance against the Rams is clear evidence he is just a rookie still. Kaepernick lucked out in his two wins over Bears and Saints with game swinging defense. I haven’t seen Kaepernick throw game winning scores in the 4th quarter like we saw Smith do repeatedly last year.
Josh,
He’s gone son. Can you get over it? He’s gone. He’s NEVER coming back. You do realize that don’t you? Even after Kap’s horrible game, he’s still the starter. What does that tell you. Attendance???? Did anyone tell you that the Niners have a new stadium being built? Attendance is the last thing to worry about. Your love for that other Qb is affecting your abilty to think. Kap is better, that’s all you need to wrap your head around. You will feel better sooner.
Hof
“AS will again make a boat load of money and may end up in a very good situation if he chooses wisely. I don’t feel sorry for him in the least.”
AS should be able to compete with four or five teams out there, one of them being the Cards. What goes with AS is the playbook which as Harbaugh said AS knows it better then he does. Interesting dilemna for AS.
Vick is the # 1 free agent QB. Alex Smith with the Cards. Can you imagine that?? Can he beat Kolb out, who is still under contract by the way. Not knowing the system and needing 2 years to learn it. I don’t think he can. Alex will be dysfunctional anywhere but here. You will see. JH saved Smith’s career. He’d be wise to take a pay cut and be a backup. The rest of the league is no more interested in him as they were this year. You guys are in for a rude awakening, again. I can’t wait to once again tell you, “Smithers, I TOLD YOU SO!”
I did tell you that Smith wasn’t the guy. He was never the guy. He will never be the guy! He’s DONE!
zzzzzzzz…….
Yes, it works out for all involved.
>>What goes with AS is the playbook which as Harbaugh said AS knows it better then he does. Interesting dilemna for AS.
Sounds more like an interesting dilemna for US.
I find these ratings fascinating.
A +3.2 rating and a TQBR of whatever it was 80+ yet… he was clearly responsible for giving the Rams 8 points which inevitably cost us the game.
I like CK and have always stated that here but come on, let’s be real here.
We can chalk it up to “bad game” or “growing pains” or whatever but to suggest he had a very good game as Harbs is spinning is utter nonsense and so are these figures, he clearly cost us the game.
The Haters give the Smithers a ration of _ _ _ _ for the excuses so something has to give here if the Haters are going to start using the same excuses for CK. Either there’s an agreement that it takes a team to win and that the O-line and receivers aren’t perfect or there are some serious hypocrites calling themselves fans. Or… and this one is interested: stats do matter? :P
Let’s hope CK blows the doors off this weekend, because if he doesn’t, this microscopic examination of Harbaugh’s lower GI goes on and our season is put in jeopardy over this science experiment.
*interesting*
Adam, that is my main point with these rating systems. When a QB gifts another team 10 points with poor play, how does that not override any other positive stat during the game?
That game is over, so is Alex SMith’s career as a Niner. Forget about the ratings. Kap was horrible last game. He was a disaster. JH is a liar to us and the media. He always has been. He always fabricates. We told you that last year when he was calling SMith “ELITE!” We know that JH is a liar. I’m sure he’s telling the team the truth with his actions. Pay more attention to his actions. Not his words.
With that being said, Guess who’s starting this week??? RoboKap!
Well, Holy Moly!!
I actually agree with you Jordan. (…although ‘horrible’ and ‘disaster’ are a bit much…..not good enough is what I’m going to go with).
I expect Kaep to do much better against Miami. He damn well better. My fantasy football playoffs are coming up and I’m riding Kaepgun!!
There is no uestion in my mind that RoboKap didn’t play a bad game on Sunday.
Your own words 23 and now you say CK was horrible? The elections are over so stop flip-flopping already!
“That game is over, so is Alex SMith’s career as a Niner.”
You’re obsessed, Jordy. I just know we’re going to see you get arrested on TMZ for stalking Smith.
Mike Sando likes the QBR rating system, but points out a major flaw that results in failing to account for the impact on the outcome of the Ram game due to the ‘pitch”, “dropping 20 yards into the end zone for a non safety safety” and the “didn’t get out of bounds” plays. The “pitch” play was the major error the QBR system made that resulted in Kaepernick’s high QBR score of 82.4 where 50 out of 100 is average. Sando points out that the people who developed the QBR are working on a fix.
“QBR ranks: Wilson! Kaepernick? Oh, my”
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/category/_/name/san-francisco-49ers
The “Pro Football Focus” rating system may have some similar statistical anomalies, especially when the score gives an impression that doesn’t pass the on the field eye test.
Kaepernick did a lot of good things against the Rams, but his much discussed errors along with some strange play calling, cost us a win. No theoretical scoring system overcomes that fact.
We still had chances to win, and a mini perfect storm of other errors prevented that outcome – especially the dropped touchdown and not trying to get closer than the 51 yard field goal try in overtime.
After the Giants great game last night, Green Bay will probably have to win out to take away our second seed play off spot. Of course, if we win out it makes no difference what they do.
We don’t need to explain any more lost games this year.
>>Sando points out that the people who developed the QBR are working on a fix.
Interesting. Anyone who writes computer code, especially one mimicing fuzzy logic, knows there will always be the unanticipated exception that blows up the algorithm.
Sando also indicates that the QBR people will rerun their historical data base to apply any changes they come up with with.
I agree with you about algorithm development. It’s good that the QBR system will continue to be improved in it’s ability to reflect as close as possible the impact that quarterbacks have on the out come of games.
ribico
I don’t need to know computer code to know that a 52 yard run by a QB isn’t the norm either. If they toss out the fumble toss as an anomaly, then the 52 yard run should be dismissed as well.
Which is of course insane. Those plays happened. Nothing should be tossed out. Good or bad while making a rating. Good and bad, great and horrible plays happen all the time in football.
Do not need a computer nor do I need stats to be able to SEE what is going on the field. My eyes are excellent and my brain works just fine. My spelling sucks tho.
When was the last time you had your vision checked undercenter?
Just joking. : – )
Couldn’t resist though.
PS I agree. Computers are useful for weather models and calculations. Things that don’t have so much of an unknown variable as people provide. Computers are not good at evaluating a person/player.
Stats are the same, fun to look at but in know way are they absolute, they tell a story, problem is whose story do you believe.
undercenter
If sports fans spent their time evaluating stats of something that was actually helping humanity instead of on sports, the world would be better. They spend way too much time on something that means nothing.
Spend that time on something that can actually improve the world and things get better.
Funny how the so called haters that wanted Smith benched, never complained about Coach Harbaugh, but the Smithers hate now has two levels, they hate CK and they doubt the coach, bring back the Rev or Nolan.
JH loves CK, he was drafted by CK, he had a private try out with CK before he was drafted, Nolan picked Smith, any dummy would of pick AR, even the reporters, such as Glenn Dickey, although a Cal guy wanted AR, he felt he was more NFL ready, Smith while playing good in some games , was just plain horrible in 4 games this season. Harbaugh is still learning, he does not have 16 years under his belt like Jeff Fisher, he will become a better coach, thought the interview today with Murp and Mac, was great, way more direct and honest. He loves CK mental toughness. I love the new direction with the team.
You noticed too?
Neal: How about learning something about English grammar. If you discipline yourself to follow the basic rules of our language, you might develop the discipline to actually observe and understand a few things about football.
“All we care about are wins, stats are for losers” – Justin Smith
AS said the same thing and is now benched…
The reason there are things like PFF’s QB rating, QBR and the grandaddy of QB metrics, Adjusted Yards Per Pass (AYPP) is to differentiate between the eyeball test and actual production. AYPP says Kaeps’ performance was a little above average.
Yes, the pitch play was a disaster. Hopefully a more seasoned Kaep would audible out of that play. Perhaps that play puts the lie to the evaluation by his metrics. However, he compensated for that error by immediately bringing the team down the field, retaking the lead and throwing one of the most catchable game-winning passes any of us have ever seen.
Delanie Walker dropped that pass and then was called for holding on the next play. End of drive.
In evaluating Kaep’s performance, you have to add to the above a couple of other things. While the safety play was not exactly brilliant, it was not a safety. The Head Linesman on that play (#79) looks over his shoulder at the ball while it is still about 8 feet in the air and then looks away. A guy in a gold shirt standing between the 19 and the 20 tries to swat the ball when it was still about 5 feet in the air. Then it gets lost in the background, but it appears to land about 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. As Mike Pererra (sp?) explains shortly thereafter, when the QB is out of the tackle box (that was admitted by the Referee), the line of scrimmage for the purposes of intentional grounding calls, extends out of bounds. The ball appears to land some 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. However,l the HL, #79 runs to the ref and obviously says the ball did not make it to the line. Interesting action, given that he didn’t watch the ball land. I suspect he didn’t know the rule and thought that since the ball crossed the boundary line short of the line of scrimmage, it was grounding.
It will be interesting to see if Jack posts a screen shot of this play.
However, we still win the game if the officials don’t erroneously call Goldson for a helmet to helmet hit on the Rams’ final drive in regulation to tie the game. In a sense, this is a worse call than the safety call.
Goldson is committed to going at Bradfors’s thighs before the Ram QB starts to slide. Goldson makes a great athletic move to avoid illegally hitting Bradford, He puts his hand on the turf and flips his body to go back first into the inevitable collision with Bradford. His helmet hits Bradford’s shoulder pad and never gets within 4 inches of Bradford’s helmet.
In light of these 3 brutal mistakes, Coach’s comment about Kaep’s performance being a winning one makes sense.