The 49ers will beat the Dolphins 24-9 on Sunday.
The 49ers defense will not give up a touchdown for the second game in a row.
The Dolphins defense will play the 49ers offense almost the exact same way the Rams defense played them last Sunday, and the 49ers will be ready for it.
Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman, John Morton and Geep Chryst will have a creative, aggressive game plan that starts with short passes and fly sweeps to open up the inside running game and the play action passes.
Greg Roman will have a bounce-back game as a play caller. He will not call anymore risky option pitches in the 49ers four-minute, end-of-the-game, kill-the-clock-for-victory package.
Colin Kaepernick will throw two touchdowns and run for one.
Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis will both score a touchdown and haul in more than 100 receiving yards.
LaMichael James will play 10 snaps and gain more than 60 yards from scrimmage.
Delanie Walker will drop a pass.
That’s how I see the game unfolding. What’s your prediction?
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http://ninerchatter.blogspot.com/2012/12/5-burning-questions-and-week-14.html
Jack, you nailed it again, especially about how Roman went conservative after the shanked punt to get the ball at the 50 and then went Jimmy Raye. It was a real head-shaker. I remember thinking this would be a great time to take a shot downfield on 1st down and get a little momentum going. When you see other OC’s across the league being aggressive in these situations because they want to score TD’s, you’re right that Roman just seems to accept the FG. Baffling.
Kaepernick does not have the same skill sets as Alex apparently, so Roman was trying to see what Kaepernick could do to avoid a punt. Roman made it clear, execution is key. I shake my head at ridiculous fans who are so pigheaded they ignore execution on the field for Kaepernick, but bash Smith for what he did 3 years ago. Must be republicans ;)
It’s a game of inches. A game of someone either making a play or not making a play. You can play great for 59 minutes but it’s a 60 minute game.
These were all good observations.
It comes down to coaching. The staff has done a good job preparing two QBS that can play the game and win.
It’s easy to see what CK does well. It’s harder to see what Alex does, which is call the right play against the right defense most of the time.
These are head-scratchin’ times.
Good stuff Jack. Just bookmarked your blog – well worth reading.
Thank you BigBrad. Appreciate it.
Excellent analysis as usual Jack.
The only thing I would like to add is that the one time Greg Roman should have been conservative he went Mike Martz. I am talking about the first play after CK’s big run at the end of 4th quarter. Three runs and a field goal would have left the Rams with the ball at the 20 with just 50 or so Seconds and no time outs. The game would have been just about over.
However, once Roman decided to go for the TD and Walker dropped the ball, it made no sense to go conservative on 2nd and 3rd downs. The clock had already stopped and the Rams still had two timeouts. They were going to get the ball with about 1:45 left to go no matter what. The only issue was if they would have any timeouts. In that situation you might as well go for the TD. You have nothing to lose.
As it turned out, CK made matters worse by going out of bounds on third down, but even if he had stayed inbounds, The Rams still would have had about 1:45 to march from the 20 to the 35 to get a FG shot. The extra timeout made things a bit easier for them, but 1:45 is still an eternity in the NFL. My guess is they would have made it even without the extra timeout.
Hopefully Roman learned some valuable lessons in clock management from the Ram loss.
Thanks Rick. Hopefully there were a lot of lessons learned in that final 4 minutes and overtime for the entire team.
It starts with calling the triple option and ends with Roman getting conservative and playing for the field goal, but there was a whole lot of other mess that went into that last 19 or so minutes for them to lose.
The defense will come out on fire. I agree once again zero touchdowns given up. I am not doing any predicting with the offense, I have no clue how the offense is going to perform. Too dog-gone inconsistant for me to even venture a guess. Could be 48-6 or 10-6.
+1
I think the average opponent score after a 49′ers loss is 3.5 points since Harbaugh arrived. If the Dolphins score 9 that would be a record.
3.4! Great observation!!
It’s great to think this team will score 3 offenses. However the Dolphins defense shut down an on fire Tom Brady adn New England offense who has scored 50+ in the previous two games. New England didn’t march down the field. It was a botched punt, a roughing the punter, and a fumble al led to 17 of NE’s 23 points.
SF and Greg Roman are not a high powered Offense. To think Kaepernick is going to run on a the 8th rated run D is a litte far fetched.
This same defense shut down one of the most prolific passers in NFL history. Yet, many of you think Kaepernick, who I am a huge fan of, is going to throw 2 td passes. That’s just not realistic.
SF just might squeak into the playoffs as a wildcard. Seattle has a cake walk for its remaining schedule. I just think SF implodes. They didn’t have all the lockerroom talk, i.e. brandon jacobs trashing niner fans and coaching staff to the media, the Smith/kaepernick distraction, this time last season. This team is not superbowl calibur. Greg Roman is not the answer on Offense.
“Delanie Walker will drop a pass.”
Way to go out on a limb Grant : )
/giggle I want to play too.
Colin Kaepernick will scramble out of the pocket at some point during the game, maybe even more then once.
I predict we will win the coin toss and defer or we will lose the coin toss!
Grant forgot to predict that DW’s drop would be preceded by a spectacular acrobatic catch.
… or followed.
The sun will rise and set tomorrow. And, Ahmad Brooks will be undisciplined and get flagged for another offside/encroachment penalty.
If we don’t take these guys more seriously we could have another Vikings game on our hands. They match up well against our strengths on offense and if our defense does happen to have an off day this game will be much closer then most are giving it credit for.
49ers 23
Miami 20
There are some of us being ridiculed for not being all in with this QB change. I believe we are questioning the move based on play, the so-called eye test, and the expected explosiveness this move was supposed to yield. It hasn’t happened and screen shots and biased opinion can’t change the metrics.
Based on the numbers, there is reason to wonder why the move was made:
1. Passing tds are down
2. Avg pass length is going down
3. Offensive points are down
4. RB avg yds per carry are down
5. Plays per game are down
6. Offensive turnovers are up
7. Productivity when being pass rushed by 5+ is down
This Mia game is good timing to get the young 9er QB back on track and improve his descending numbers. I agree with Grant, 9ers win easily by two tds. Go 9ers!!
The good and bad CK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEzwjK3YuJU
Actually what is funny is reading the comments below the video. Looks like this place when all the hormones are going! :P
No Hofe, its not so much the play as it is about the change.
Many were dismissing CK’ great play against the Bears by denigrating their defense after the fact.
Leading up to the game, many here felt that CK would be running for his life against the big bad Bears.
Though CK played great, his play was unfairly tarnished.
We don’t have any guarantee that AS would have put up better numbers if he hadn’t missed any time.
Stats don’t tell the whole story, and in this case they certainly made no difference on the practice field were I believe CK really won the job.
The reality is that CK is our QB until Harbaugh says otherwise.
“Though CK played great, his play was unfairly tarnished.”
Tarnished by what?
The Bears game was a great game for him but don’t you think his two starts since then have been less worthy than that game? I mean he’s made some good throws but the idea is we need to score some points eventually.
Looks to me as if defenses are starting to figure him out. The Rams aren’t a very good team (yet) but Fisher is a pretty good coach. Without the defense in the Saints game scoring points, do we win that one? I’m not sure we do.
If CK is the guy in 2013, that will be the true test of ‘greatness’.
Why we didn’t wait for 2013 is a bit of a mystery, other than the front office can save some inventive bonuses by not playing Smith.
AES,
The Bears team was without JCutler. It would have been a completely different game with their starter in there. Timing is everything.
BTW, let’s be clear, there is no turning back period.
That’s the whole point Adam. Waiting to 2013 was in everyone’s best interest except Harbaughs ego.
Everyone thinks that after the MIA game everything said about the switch will be null and void. I expect and almost demand a superior performance by CK. He has a lot to prove, just like Alex did with every start.
Alex is not hard to replace.
“Why we didn’t wait for 2013 is a bit of a mystery”
*mystery* is the operative word.
Adam, I wonder if it is a much that DC’s are starting to figure Kaepernick out as they have figured Roman out? They have a ton more game film of the 49er offense from last season and this season to look at.
inventive = incentive. Ha!
Although they were pretty inventive I guess. :P
Fair point, Space. I guess my answer would be yes, both.
It seems to me that the Niners are running a lot of the same plays but the formations are different so if you can get a bead on that and anticipate the play and/or the route you have a good chance to make a play.
With CK, you can look back to his college video, I posted one earlier, you can see tendencies. He will pull down and run, roll-out, and more times than not take vertical shots. He doesn’t have a lot of ‘touch’ yet on shorter throws. He tends to rifle a lot of these. Smith tends to do the same thing, by the way. So you get some drops, deflections, etc. Other than a few designed screens there are some balls that shouldn’t be thrown the way he throws them (on shorter routes or escape or hot reads.)
So yeah, fair point. I think it’s both – which is normal. It’s all part of the chess game. You expect a good DC to be able to pick apart what we’re doing.
At that point then, it comes down to WILL and EXECUTION. The best play is the play that they know is coming, they prepare for and we still execute and make it stick. :)
Forget CK and the Niners in that Bears game for a bit.
How would you evaluate the Bears themselves in that game? Me, they sucked no matter who was the QB. They sucked on offense. They sucked on defense. They couldn’t get any pass rush or cover any WR’s. What QB wouldn’t have looked good against a horrible Bears performance like that.
Adam
You’re right about the 89 Niners era with JR and JT. We didn’t just have the best WR in JR. We had the 2nd best in JT.
MC while he’s not JR has made a few nice WCO WR plays this year.
So now we think Harbaugh benched Alex to save money on incentives? Seriously? Everything we’ve seen this year indicates that the team just doesn’t think Alex is very good.
Alex is benched yet again because the team feels CK7 is a better option. Is the team correct? Who knows. But this wonderful QB sure does get benched a lot.
I don’t know who “we” is, I’m throwing this out there because the incentives are a chunk of change. Smith counted as $9.5 mil against the cap and $1 mil is guaranteed for next year regardless of whether he’s here or not. There’s another mil hanging out there in incentives.
They may feel CK is a better option in the long run, even though according to most reporting he’s regressed in these last two games but… he’s also cheaper in the near future. $750k is not $7.5 mil next year.
I very rarely mention Bleacher Report because it’s a fan-written thing (although lately there have been some pretty decent articles) but I agree with an analysis this morning: If the Niners are kicking field goals today, the fans will be booing by halftime.
I fully expect us to win this game but it will be a defensive bashfest on a rookie QB with a banged up O-line.
If CK doesn’t start airing the ball out soon then this experiment looks like a waste of time. If he struggles again then this is going to get really interesting. I’m not worries about the division (much) but the idea that we can hold on to the two seed would be nice.
Adam – I wonder if Clem gets out of bed by game time. He was posting after 3AM…….I can hardly last to 11PM. :) I’m getting old man (mid forties like bay).
DS, I admit, I haven’t been following the Bears much. On paper they look decent but I agree they didn’t play well. The way to go after CK is to confuse him with multiple-look zones. He may be able to beat teams (even with our receivers) in man-to-man, although we don’t have many games to look at to be certain of this. If I’m a DC I zone him and give him tons of different looks pre-snap.
On offense it’s pretty clear that the Bears are not the same team without Jay Cutler. Following Bay Area sports, I think many of us have seen the shortcomings of Jason Campbell over the years. If he was a good starting QB I would assume Oakland would not have tried to “upgrade” the position (although we now see that Carson Palmer should have stayed retired and wasn’t the answer either.)
“I’m getting old man (mid forties like bay).”
You and me both, my friend. :P
I can’t sleep in anymore. I wish I could. I’ve been conditioned to be up at 6 am and at work by 7:30. Plus old injuries nag at me if I sleep too long. What a drag! :P
Wish I would win the lottery dammit! Get a bit of cartilage fixed and then sleep til 10 am. Ha!
Adam – I hear ya bro…..I’m sore all over and stiff every morning. I’ve had 2 back surgeries (several years ago)…..damn knee-caps starting to hurt now too, what a drag.
Lunesta helps me get 6-7 hours sleep.
Hof,
Notice you are the first one to bring up AS on a topic that has nothing to do with AS. Get your mind off the backup and support your team.
The posting order is out of sorts. My post should have been way up.
Hofer,
Admit it bro, you are the one who is down!
Hofer, the ridicule comes from the abrupt 180 in support for Harbaugh from Alex Smith’s fans. It’s delightfully amusing. Harbaugh went from genius to ego-maniac based on the benching of “one niner”.
I’m not sold on Kaepernick – he doesn’t seem to be any better than Smith to me. However, I thought Harbaugh was an idiot for bringing back Smith last year and that turned out pretty well.
It’s apparent that the team doesn’t feel Alex is good enough. They left him dangling in free agency, tried to replace him in the offseason, signed him to essentially a one year contract and now they’ve benched him. That’s not generally how teams treat “elite, all-pro” quarterbacks.
Is CK7 any better? Who knows but Harbaugh seems to think so. Considering what Harbaugh managed to do with a scrub like Smith I’m comfortable than he can at least get the same level from Kaepernick.
It will take more than 4 more games to covert a runnin QB to a playoff ready QB.
Sure Smith is not a top 5 QB, but one thing he is, is battled tested, tough, winner, and experienced.
Now if you want to go to war this late in the season with potential, mistake prone and inexperience, well good luck! I’m worried!
The major difference in skill set is his wheels that provide elusiveness in the pocket that AS doesn’t have and many QBs don’t have. The numbers are the numbers and just saying it isn’t so doesn’t make it true.
Clem,
I’ve never called JH an idiot or an ego maniac. I simply question the move and motive at this juncture of the season. I’m not unique, others such as analysts, former NFL players, and sportscasters have done so as well.
How can anyone not question the move after what we have seen since Colin Kapernicks and the Bears game. Nothing that makes me say it was good.
Prime,
Smith is battle tested. Whats the benefit of being battle tested when youve always lost the battle? All the qb battles he contines to lose.
A winner? His career record is 2 games over .500. That makes him a winner. What has Alex smith
won other than your admiration? Did I miss
something? Just keep your hand over your mouth and get ready for the field trip you smithers take during the game.
Nice try Hofer. How can you say turnovers are going up when in the last 4 games the offense has a total of 2. They had 3 in a single game earlier this season.
Kaepernick is still averaging 8.2 ypa, compared to 8.0 for the previous starter.
Regarding the “explosive” offense. Kaepernick has 13 passes of 20+ yards in 3 starts. The previous QB had 22 in 8 starts.
You might also want to go back and refer to the Sando piece from last week in which it shows Kaepernick having a QBR of 80+ when pressured. So while not everything is rosy, the picture is a little less bleak than your “unbiased” facts.
Where are the associated points with those plays Jack? The avg points by the offense has declined. The avg pass play has declined from 10.2 to 5.8. We’ve also seen 10 points gifted to the opponent.
Hofer,
The average points per game was already in decline prior to the switch. If you take a look at the 3 full games Smith played prior to getting hurt the offense averaged 13.3 points per game (Giants 3, Seahawks 13, Cardinals 24).
Not sure where you are getting 5.8 per pass, but the lowest so far has been 6.50 last week.
This gifting 10 points thing is interesting considering the 13 given up to the Giants.
Right. The change hasn’t helped as much as some anticipated. Total passing yardage has declined as well – 243, 231, and 208. Passing TDs have declined – 2, 1, and 0.
Kaepernick’s average yards per game is still higher than Smith’s over both the season, and his last 3 starts. The TD passes are the same for both at 3, but Kaepernick also has a rushing TD.
Even if there is no difference between the 2, we are saying the guy with 3 total career starts is as good as the guy with 60+, and 20+ in this system.
That is the reason for the change plain and simple.
The upside is that they are playing Mia tomorrow and that should help inflate his numbers so that you can continue to spin them as an improvement.
I don’t need to spin them as improvement Hofer. Like you said, you can’t change the metrics. The numbers speak for themselves, and over the last 3 starts and complete game for both they are pretty close, but still favor Kaepernick.
Poor Hofer. Guy is in pain.
He’s 2-1-1 and as far as I’m concerned he’s 2-2. That makes him a .500 quarterback and that’s the only stat I’m interested in. Last year Alex was .815 in the regular season and was .750 before being replaced….by someone who’s .500 so far. Sounds great if it’s a rebuilding year or if we’re already out of the playoffs but I’d prefer to stick with the winning QB when my team is trying to make it to the Super Bowl.
For what it’s worth and I’ve stated this before this isn’t my personal appeal for Alex, I just think he honestly gives us the best chance this season. If it was me putting a team together I wouldn’t choose Smith or Kaepernick so I’m neither Smither nor hater, although the argument could easily be made that I’m a hater just not of Smith or Kaepernick.
Sadly I would have drafted Braylon Edwards in 2005 so it shows what I know.
Coffee, best post of the evening!
He is 2-1 as a starter. As for the tie, you might consider it a loss but the NFL doesn’t and the tie is a lot better than a loss.
Smith was 6-2 this year in the games he started and finished, .750.
Kaepernick is 2-1 this year in the games he started and finished, .667, and his win percentage will be tied with Smith after they win tomorrow.
Jack the bottom line is this, he’s played four games but only won two of them.
Coffee,
Bottom line is, he as started 3 games and one 2 of them, and came in while trailing in a 4th and kept the team from losing.
Jack
Or a loss and CK has lost the same number of games as AS did while losing to teams with losing records.
He came in in the second quarter of the Rams game, no he didn’t start it but he’s played 14.5 of the last 16 quarters, close enough to say he’s accountable for the outcome of the past four games.
Hofer/grumpy says:
“The upside is that they are playing Mia tomorrow and that should help inflate his numbers so that you can continue to spin them as an improvement.”
That comment revealed a lot about your character, in my opinion. Spoken like a true hater.
BigP – What happened to the level headed Hofer that I used to know. I didn’t know he was that dedicated to Alex.
23J was right when he said back in January “What franchise QB gets a 2-3 year contract extension at age 27? Why not a 5-6 year deal?
23J was right on the money, gotta give him credit for that one.
Crabs,
He was never really level headed, he was able to hide behind the facade of Smith being the starter. The cracks really started to show during the Manning pursuit…errrr, evaluation. Hofer needs to use this for a couple of weeks and he should be feeling better.
http://prairiefirenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/butthurt-cream.dawgmaspatentedbutthurtcream1.jpg
BigP – That is priceless!…Lol.
Hofe is one smart dude but he’s “out of his skull” on the Alex debate. He knows RoboKap is better than Alex but he can’t admit it publicly. He’ll come around.
Crab,
I just got back from a dinner party and I’m hurt. I thought you were my blog bud but you obviously have been taken in by the dark side. I’m a supporter of CK more so than than the anti-Smith’s yet I didn’t see you giving them the same grief you are giving me. At least you said I was “one smart dude”! I’m disappointed in you Crab!
BigP,
You brought nothing to the debate. That wasn’t even your B game. Come on you are better than that. I presented facts and you have nothing to disagree with but then you try to dismiss my factual comment. You answer is to call me a hater. Very weak at best!
Crabs,
I ‘ve been saying it for years. They just wouldn’t listen. Alex Smith was NEVER the guy. I”ve told you why these guys love him. They’ve been bullied at some point in their lives just like Alex Smith. I encourage all of them to fight back. It will make them feel better. Hit the bully in the mouth. Too bad Alex wont get to fight back this year.
Crabs,
You are now on the “dark side” because you don’t back statements like these: “The upside is that they are playing Mia tomorrow and that should help inflate his numbers so that you can continue to spin them as an improvement.” Maybe Hofer needs to take his Viagra before he tries his Jedi mind tricks, they aren’t working.
http://www.hark.com/clips/cwpdhycnbh-your-powers-are-weak-old-man
Jordo,
You’ve done nothing but suggest JJ is the future. Better than AS and CK. Now you are trying to yet again take credit for CK’s limited success. You are a joke. You get credit for nothing period.
BigP,
I presented factual data points this afternoon validating the change wasn’t an improvement. What do you have to offer other than drama?
Hofer,
Everybody sees your agenda, stop trying to manipulate people. Harbaugh is going with CK and I support him. I supported him when Smith was starting. I cheer the good and get pissed at the bad, regardless of who the QB is. I have never wished for or anticipated Smith failing. Never. Your comments about CK inflating his numbers against the Dolphins are sad and show your true colors. Your little “running QB” comments are equally desperate. I knew exactly how you would react if there was a QB change, and you certainly didn’t disappoint.
Crab15,
Giving Smith a three year deal, that was really a series of three one year deals, was a brilliant move by the 49ers.
If Smith blew up, they’d have him locked up, at a reasonable price, for three years. If he sucked, they could cut him after one year. If Kaepernick took over, but Smith played well [exactly what has happened], the 49ers can trade Smith in the off season.
Here are some other observations that are on par with Jordan’s “brilliant” analysis: water is wet; the sky is blue; tomorrow, the sun will come up in the east and set in the west; and Jordan is still be the guy who said the 49ers might as well trade CK earlier this year.
BigP,
Debate the numbers or take a hike. It has nothing to do with an agenda. Counter the numbers I presented or pipe down period.
Hofer,
This is not a factual data point: “The upside is that they are playing Mia tomorrow and that should help inflate his numbers so that you can continue to spin them as an improvement.” That is the comment that I got on you about. You are saying it won’t be improvement if he plays well, that is b.s. Talk about spinning information.
BigP,
There is nothing I said that is incorrect. You read it right the first time. So get over it!
Hofer,
Why don’t you get over the fact that Smith is no longer the starter and stop making cowardly comments about CK. I know it hurts, but it’s time to move on. Passive aggression is a sign of a coward.
“In Harbaugh we trust!”
A Grant prediction of a blow out. The KISS of the death!
Yup…
Could not say it any better.
Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman, John Morton and Geep Chryst will have a creative…
You’re like a kid who’s learned a new word and wants to try and use it in every sentence. Just say the 49ers game plan for goodness sake we already know who’s responsible for it.
Hey Grant, can someone ditch the ad that is showing up in the navigation? Kinda hard to follow along.
+1
Another foolish play call at a critical juncture in the game and I’d fire Mr. Greg Roman and promote Mr. Chyrst to Offensive Coordinator. I say that because of the amount of these plays with the most recent being the worst. Also I assume he has been told to knock it off……If he hasn’t, then the 49ers deserve to lose.
Oh, and for the record, I’m still not over that loss.
We are in the stretch where every game is a playoff game. We can’t afford to lose to the phins!! We have to win this game and then 2 out of 3 to win our division. If we lose to both NE and Seattle we are looking at a wild card spot. Let see if the Niners can play like their counterparts in Baseball (SF Giants for those of you who aren’t up on your baseball) this year and play the best when the pressure is on!!
if we can’t beat Seattle or New England in the regular season we don’t deserve to go to the playoffs.We are going to have to beat teams at least that good to get to the Super Bowl so I say bring it on, go Niners.
STOP THE PREDICTIONS ALREADY!!!
Grant you are almost always wrong in your predictions, not only for the Niners but games in general. And when you predict a blowout as you often do, the Niners take a dive. Enough already. -L-
Niners win in a squeaker (Actually I think the Fish will win, Niners lose three of the next four, miss the playoffs or get blown out in the wild card round and it will be a very dark winter).
Grant, no prediciton for Jenkins debut? I’m going to go with two big-play catches for 60 yards.
I also predict that if I don’t see #23 on the field I’ll be sending a “strongly-worded letter” to 4949 Centennial Ave, LOL.
Score 49ers 27, Miami 17.
*Blvd* Wonder if it would still get there? LOL
Gosh dang it Grant you need to get your predictions out earlier. I already have my bets down and just like last week i’m taking the 49ers and giving 10. If i only had known your pick i would have thought twice. Ok lets be positive this is the week you break the G Cohn jinx and i cash in on the back of your pick. Go CK Go 9ers Go alex [if we need him] and for damn sure GO G Cohn.
coach, I’m in a $1000 dollar pool tomorrow with 7′s for both teams. I like my odds for winning at least a Qtr. Just, please, no safties this week and the 7 for the 49ers is a winning score. Rather have that than winning any money, actually.
space good luck. Thank God grant did’nt predict a final score of 27-7 you would be up a creek.
i have it at 24-10, but that’s close enough for government work
2great games one egg, this is frightening, it means we beat Miami and the pats lose to the hawks, beat Arizona and our first playoff opponent, then………………..
Adam says:
December 8, 2012 at 11:23 am
“Though CK played great, his play was unfairly tarnished.”
Tarnished by what?
The Bears game was a great game for him but don’t you think his two starts since then have been less worthy than that game? I mean he’s made some good throws but the idea is we need to score some points eventually.
@Adam
Yes, his two last starts have been subpar. But some here would rather highlight his mistakes from the Rams game, while seemingly trying to forget/hide his strong effort against the Bears.
CK his not emulated the numbers that he had against the Bears, but if that type of effort could be repeated every week there would be a strong argument as to why he was not drafted as the #1 overall pick.
CK is a work in progress. But it is clearly evident by Harbaugh’ decision that his progress (even with a small sample) has exceeded AS’ ceiling.
The Redskins recently beat the NYG’ with a QB that is somewhat similar to CK.
I venture to say that no one was more intently intuned to that game than one Jim Harbaugh. Why? Because he knows that we don’t beat the NYG’ (who I still believe will be path to the SB) with game management.
We tried it twice, failed both times.
“CK is a work in progress. But it is clearly evident by Harbaugh’ decision that his progress (even with a small sample) has exceeded AS’ ceiling.”
I hope you’re right. I hope this wasn’t just some business decision to cancel out a debt. I’m not sure on the ceiling thing. I just re-watched the ’89 season. Reaffirmed that we had two of the most outstanding receivers ever to play. The YAC yards were amazing. We don’t have either a Rice or a Taylor on this team who can run five yard slants and turn them in to 75 – 80 yard TDs. We haven’t had guys that can bust tackles and take it to the house since. Not even close. If we had either of those two type players the QB discussion wouldn’t be happening.
Where this gets tough is after teams have a chance to figure CK out. Let’s hope he’s the real deal.
No argument here Adam. I DO feel that we have the ‘real deal’ in CK.
But you are right, only time will tell.
In the meantime, he has my support until the final verdict is in.
Time will tell. Yeah 4 games to convert from a running QB to a playoff ready QB. We might need the ghost of Walsh to help JH with the prep. The good news is that it is the miracle season.
AES,
I dealt with facts above. Where are the facts that “CK has exceeded AS ceiling”?? You are making statements and not supporting them with facts.
In terms of the Bear’s game, I know JCutler doesn’t play defense. What’s your point? I also know that JCampbell isn’t JCutler.
Now teams have film the Bear’s didn’t have and the number are descending – fact. Can you disprove the numbers with facts of your own?
Hoferfan67 says:
December 8, 2012 at 11:24 am
AES,
The Bears team was without JCutler. It would have been a completely different game with their starter in there. Timing is everything.
BTW, let’s be clear, there is no turning back period.
@Hofe
True. They did not have Cutler. But Cutler does not play defense.
Hofe, do you remember the talk and blogs conversation leading up to that game?
I can assure you that any talk about the Bears not having Cutler was not the popular trending topic.
The majority of the talk was how the Bears (turn-over machine) defense was going to knock CK into submission.
When that did not happen, it wasn’t about CK having a great game. It evolved into making excuses for the Bears defense.
Like:
1. they game planned for AS
2. they were caught off guard with CK
3. and now, they did not have Cutler
Using the Rams game as a measuring stick against CK is not fair and balanced (which you preach) without factoring in the Bears game.
Ok, I understand that many are irked at the way the QB transition transpired (I was one of them), but to give CK any lukewarm support at this point is unbecoming of a true 49er faithful, period!
Amen
Putting CK aside, the bears offense and defense was and still is over rated. Look at who they have played and beat this year. Indy, Rams, Jags, Dallas, Detroit, Panthers and Tennessee. When they played a good offense in GB, they lost. When they finally played a good defense, Houston, they lost. Next week they play our D, and what do ya know, they lose. ESPN loves to hype up anything chicago, and the reason their defense garnered such attention were all the turnovers they were forcing and pick sixes. Great fantasy defense, they scored me a lot of points this year. In reality, they rely on turnovers to win, which covers up for their lack of fundamentally sound football on defense.
Rams are on that list. The same team we couldn’t beat.
Which tag line sounds better to their fan base?
1. Rams – We never lost to the division champs beating them once.
2. Niners – We never beat the team who finished last in 2011 and who likely would have finished last this year if not for us losing to them.
Grant, didn’t you make a similar prediction before the last Rams game? I don’t think your predictions are worth much.
Grant, any fantasy projections for Colin. I’m guessing 200 pass yards, 40 rush and two total TDs.
Grants predictions are almost as bad as Adam meyers
He said wed spank the rams….ummm yeah
Might as well shelve the predictions grant
Less is always more
There was a lack of support from a good portion of this blog when Alex Smith was the QB and now that someone else is at the helm certain people get defensive and not understanding why they are hesitant to support. I bleed red and gold and i support CK7 all the way to the Super Bowl but with that being said it was to premature to start him right now. Whether you liked or disliked Smith he deserves this Job for this year hands down. If Jimbos risk doesnt payoff this could very well have a long term affect in the locker room… Let’s take care of those Phins!!!!!!!!
agree
disagree
Prime, disappear will you! You clown. We know its you. Youre the only one saying the same dumb crap about the locker room. The locker room is not as weak as you are!
Obviously the General in charge of the battalion disagrees with your assessment. I don’t know that you’ve ever coached professional football, but I’m going to trust a proven winner at the profession and thats Jimbo “saved by the bell” Harbaugh over you.
+1
Alex does not “deserve” anything. The 49ers gave him 8 years of chances and excuses. He wasn’t good enough and he has been benched again. That is normal in the NFL.
Clem, we get your drift. Anything new?
Hofe:
In terms of the Bear’s game, I know JCutler doesn’t play defense. What’s your point? I also know that JCampbell isn’t JCutler.
@Hofe
My point is that CK not merely beat, but destroyed the strength of the Bears team; Their Defense!
Fact: CK had 6 passes for 20 or more yards.
Fact: CK threw the ball into tight windows.
Fact: CK patiently worked from the pocket without a hitch.
Fact: CK did not prove to have the “run first mindset” that you wrote prior to the game.
Fact: You said at the beginning of the season that you would “Trust in Harbaugh.”
Fact: After reading the above, it seems like facts are not a high priority on your list.
Hofe, your agenda is clear; You want AS as your starter, and you would rather sulk than support Harbaugh’ decision to go with CK.
But hey, what does another fact matter (lol).
AES,
Good comment until you added the drama at the end. I’ve already stated the change is permanent. I’m enjoying this season. It’s exciting isn’t it?
Look Hofe, maybe I came on a bit strong.
But I’m still working off my original post from this morning that some here have focused more on CK’ few mistakes while making excuses for the Bears in CK’ big win.
I called CK’ against the Rams bone-headed and inexcusable. But I also seen a highly competitive young QB who did not ‘fold’ and go into the ‘tank’ after committing mistakes. I count that as a valuable intangable in my book.
If some here want to only highlight the mistakes that’s cool. I choose to move forward by doing exactly what I believe CK has done; Shake the dust off, and move on.
People have every right to see the glass as half empty. I prefer to see the glass half full.
AES* – Unfortunately the RoboKap skeptics won’t keep their trap shut until Feb 3rd, 2013.
Crab,
The facts are the facts. What do you have to offer that differs from the facts presented? You talk a lot but have little to offer!
Hofer – I have little to offer? What do you want me to offer? You want the logistics of Kevin Coyle’s new 4-3 defensive scheme?…. Miami used a basic 3-4 defense last year. DE Jared Odrick is being shifted all over the field this year, he’s lined up in 8 different places this year.
Hofer – You want this kind of stuff? I can do it but you, Jack and others do it better than me.
I prefer to be myself but you’d rather I dissect offensive/defensives schemes etc? Too boring for me.
I disagree with your stance on Alex and you bail out on me?…….I bailed on Alex, not on being a blog chum.
You did call me Jordo. :-)
RoboKap will make you proud sooner than later Hofe. He has a gun and he’s not afraid to use it.
Go Niners!……..Aldon (sack master) goes off today Hofe.
Jacobs seems like he is a very unhappy Niner. Cant blame a player that is unhappy about playing time but…….
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/08/brandon-jacobs-mad-hes-not-playing-rips-fans-who-criticize-him/
Just read that. I’d sit til after the playoffs then cut him in the off season.
said this when we first signed him. He’s a bum. Giants were happy to get rid of him. Just like Braylon edwards, another failed FA signing who contributed nothing. There’s a reason he never saw the field, he’s a me me me type of player
And what exactly did he accomplish when he got into the game? A whopping 6 yards on 4 carries. Yea, a total mystery as to why this guy isn’t getting more time…
I didn’t think much of Jacobs when he was in New Jersey and I was kind of surprised when the 49ers signed him.
I’m not surprised at all that he’s riding the pine in SF.
under – Maybe Jacobs should spend less time reminiscing with his NY Giants buddies and he’d get more playing time.
*I’d sit him
I called CK’ *mistakes
A nice read from Pro Football Focus:
“Many teams around the league like to boast that they have the best group of players in any given positional unit. Nobody but the 49ers should be claiming to have the best group of linebackers, however, with San Francisco the current flag bearers for how a set of 3-4 linebackers should play. With Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman at inside linebacker, and Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks on the outside, the quartet have combined to record 157 defensive stops to go along with 27 sacks, 21 hits and 62 hurries as pass rushers. With Run Stop Percentages of 9.3% and 13.1% respectively, Willis and Bowman both rank in the top 16 players at their position. That’s matched by the pass rushing ability of Smith and Brooks on the outside who, with PRP Ratings of 12.0 and 9.7, rank in the top seven outside linebackers. There isn’t really a weakness to this group as they continue to be a major part of the success of the San Francisco defense.”
Entire article here: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/06/pfts-week-14-picks-3/
I got Florio’s picks for the week?
Then I started browsing around PFT, found out that the Cowboys Jerry Brown guy is dead, and that Bernie Kosar’s daughter is a porn actress. This internet business is wild.
I failed at copy pasta. So ashamed.
I did not know that Kosar’s daughter is a porn star… this is disturbing.
The Kosar mullet spoke volumes about the seed within.
Grant should just get out of the prediction business. He is more often wrong than right. My guess is that the 49ers will win, but by a far narrower margin than Grant believes. Offensively, they just haven’t gotten it together, and I’m still not sure they will this year, Grant’s predictions notwithstanding.
Glass half empty kind of guy. I’m going to trust this staff to get it done. They have to work harder, fight harder and execute with precision without penalties. They must punish the remaining opponents into submission.
This ESPN 30 for 30 show on Bo Jackson is awesome stuff.
Imagine what he would have done without that freak hip injury.
Best player of all time
He was an unbelievable athlete. The part about why he chose baseball over football coming out of college was interesting, as was his story about Bear Bryant and Pat Dye’s approaches to recruiting him
Syco – “Joe knows” Super Bowls.
Not arguing with that
I had one of those shirts!!!
Syco – How do you like this blog so far man? Where were you hangin before? A late welcome to ya.
You need 2 inch thick Rhinoceros skin to remain in here long term. I hope you stick around.
This game could either be a slaughter or a tight one depending on which version of the Niners show up. I’m predicting a tight one that the Niners pull out in a 20-17 thriller. There are five wildcards in this game:
1. Will CK bounce back? He had eye-popping numbers against the Bears but has slowly regressed in his last two starts, probably due to him getting used to starting and opposing defenses having game tape on him now. He needs to adjust to this or his play will suffer more.
2. Will Greg Roman fully utilize all of the weapons on offenses? The complaint by some was that with Smith at QB the weapons on offense (such as Davis) were being ignored or used the wrong way. Well that obviously wasn’t true because it is still happening with CK as the QB, and the common thread between Smith and CK is the play-calling by OC Roman. Roman has failed in several games to get Davis involved in the passing game and has a habit of conservative and even ultra-conservative when he should instead try to be a little more aggressive. Roman needs to do a better job of play-calling in order to take some of the pressure off the defense and to get the win.
3. Will the Niners quit hurting themselves with stupid penalties? The Niners are in the upper half of teams with penalties and the sad part of it is that most of them have been ridiculous. There has either been a hold when the offense needs to get something going or unnecessary roughness that extends a drive our defense has stopped. To be blunt, THIS HAS GOT TO STOP!
4. What impact, if any (or if they are allowed to), will Jenkins and James have? Jenkins and James are expected to make their debut against the Dolphins, but how will they be used? Will they be used? In order for this team to win, these two must be utilized to take the pressure off Gore and CK.
5. How effective will the secondary be? The secondary will be going against players in the Miami WR corps that have been the Achilles heel of this unit, and they are the speedy, quick-twitch type players. Our front seven needs to do its job, but it is more imperative that our secondary find a way to stop the feasting speedy WRs have been doing on this unit.
If the Niners effectively find an answer for these wildcards, then they should come out of the game against Miami with a win.
I just checked into my hotel. Lotta Dolphins fans. Lets send them home with a loss.
A loss with a side of drubbing and a glass of humility. And for dessert, the cold-hard reality that the Niners are way better than the Dolphins.
Bay,
Im there tomorrow bro. Im in Section LE35 Row 46 seat 15. Come see me at the Half bro! Or tell me where youre sitting and I’ll come to you.
Funny,
Turns out Hofer was the biggest Smither of them all. I could tell during the Manning pursuit. He’s so pathetic right now. You need therapy Hofer.
Jordo,
What happened to JJ and the CK trade you suggested? You never post anything interesting or football related. Only your rants that your minions enjoy because they don’t know any better. Keep trying Jordo.
Jordan not going to this game. Going to the cards game Dec 30th. You going to tha t one?
That looks very similar to my blog post from this morning. Good stuff MWN! : )
Believe it or not I haven’t read it yet Jack. All I can say is great minds think alike. :-)
Whaaaaa, you haven’t read it yet? : )
That’s kinda what is was getting at. Time to get back on the winning side tomorrow!
MidWest – C’mon Man! John Madden said Kap passed the test on road in New Orleans in a hostile environment.
Madden quote after Saints game:
“Kaepernick has demonstrated that his success in college can continue in the NFL.”
“A lot of (NFL scouts) missed on this guy, and I’m not sure why,” he said. “He was big. He was strong. He could throw the ball well. He had a heck of a spin on it. He could run it. He had speed, (and) he looked like a tough guy.”
Madden knows football like Joe knows Super Bowls!
I know Crab, but I’ve also noticed that his performance has slowly declined since the Bears game. If that continues; then the team is in trouble. I believe that he’ll adjust though and not let his play slide downward any further.
MidWest – Talk to me after game tomorrow. Watch what Kap does and most of all, notice the difference in the Niner crowd bro. They are electric when Kaps in there! When Alex is playing they hit snack bar or the head because they know it’s going to be a long uneventful boring drive or a punt.
I can’t believe you are being brain washed by Hofer. CK played well vs Saints! The Saints were playing great and it was a home playoff game for them.
MidWest……I know your way better than that. I read your posts a lot but we can’t agree on everything.
Go Niners!
“There are going to be bad times for Colin Kaepernick, but if you don’t see his talent …” Jason Cole, Yahoo Sports
I’m not denying that CK played well. against the Saints Crab, but his performance dipped slightly compared to the Bears game and then a little more in the Rams game. That’s not a good trend. But like I said, I believe he’ll adjust. My bold prediction for tomorrow is that CK will throw for 350 yards and rush for 100 more.
It’s good that we don’t agree on everything Crab, otherwise this blog would be boring.
Colin Kaepernick, the better version of Aaron Rodgers.
MidWestNiner
MidWest – Right on bro….What’s your plan for Niner game tomorrow? Anything special, BBQ?
Really? First 450 combined yards and now better than Aaron Rodgers? Me thinks someone is being a tad sarcastic…
Work unfortunately. In one word, BLAH!
CK throws for 318 yards, runs 65 yards, will throw for 3 touchdowns and the Smithers will say that AS could of done that too. lol
Me thinks someone is being a tad sarcastic…
Nope, just like with Smith, I believe in Kaepernick. I’ll voice concerns, but I’ll always support the players on my team.
Neal (the real deal) is in the house! …..Big game for Kap and Niners tomorrow Neal.
Time for the playoff run!! Gotta hold onto #2 seed.
I like my prediction better Neal. No offense.
(( C R A B )) you crack me up with your positive energy. This game we will be cranking, we will have a great game plan tomorrow and CK will have the game of his life in his short career. He will throw exactly 318 yards. Take it to the bank Midwest. My prediction is 27- 6.Although I predict that Walker will also drop a pass and Akers will miss two field goals. But we (( W I N ))
Midwest says
” I like my prediction better Neal. No offense”
That ok MW as long as we have offense that is all I care about.
True dat Neal.
Although I’d rather see him have the game of his life in his short career not tomorrow but in the Super Bowl. One game at a time though, right Neal?
Mid/Neal/Jack – You can count on Crabtree to drop a pass too…..it’s normal now but he always makes up for it.
Mid – Atleast you pull for RoboKap too…….some don’t.
Some don’t because they let their hate get in the way. As for me, I’m a fan of the Niners before any of the players. Team first, individual players second. CK is a Niner, so I’ll support and believe in him.
just please stop calling him robokap, it might be the worst nickname of all time
I do agree with you JDilla. He does need a better nickname, but what I don’t know.
How about the Turlock Terror
Better, but still missing that attention grabber.
Tatatouille?
this is my new name for him going forward.
Crab, Madden is the same one that consults for the Raiders. Not so good!
just read an article over on ninernation. apparently donte whitner calls him jafar from the movie Aladin hahaha google search jafar and you can kinda see why. Ain’t much better but it’s pretty funny.
How about just “7″? You know, like what George Costanza wanted to name his first child.
make sure to leave on a high note
Not good Coffee. Opposing teams’ fans could change the first t to an r and he’d have the nickname of a rat from one of the Pixar movies.
JDilla, that’s hilarious. CK needs a nickname that has the same or a greater resonance than Megatron though.
I’m pretty sure that wont be a problem.
If Gore can’t get more than 58 yds on 23 carries I don’t care who is at qb this team is going to struggle. Jacobs has a right to be mad. No reason why gore should be getting that many carries. Gore is turning into ladanian at 30 years of age he’s slowing down
Gore has been a stud for 7 years, wrong guy to bash. He’s had a good year, Hunter went down vs Saints so Rams keyed in on Gore. Jeff Fisher can coach, he’s no joke.
Are you that simple, Gore has been a work horse and the O line was not creating holes, you can be Earl Campbell with the same results.
Jacobs is on a potential Super Bowl contender and hasn’t been cut yet. He has zero reasons to be mad, but plenty of them to keep his mouth shut.
Jacobs wants to play, and it appears the coaches don’t think highly of him, Gore has been over used last game, they need to get more carries from someone else tomorrow, Gore is already beaten up.
Hopefully that someone is James.
Still want to be in the prediction business, Grant?
Week 1: Packers beat Niners 34-23 Win 30-22
Week 2: Niners blow out Lions 33-13 Win 27-19
Week 3: Niners destroy Vikings 33-13 Loss 13-24
Week 4: Niners beat Jets 23-13 Win 34-0
Week 5: Niners annihilate Bills 28-7 Win 45-3
Week 6: Giants beat Niners 21-20 Loss 26-3
Week 7: Niners beat Seahawks 12-6 Win 13-6
Week 8: Niners beat Cardinals 20-16 Win 24-3
Week10:Niners beat Rams 26-16 Tie 24-24
Week 11:Niners beat Bears 19-16 Win 32-7
Week 12:Niners beat Saints 41-27 Win 31-21
Week 13:Niners blow out Rams 35-6 Loss 16-13
Grant is 8-3-1. Not fantastic, not horrible.
Not sure what you’re squealing about.
Just like the Niner record.
Of the 8 that he got the result right, the final spread was 10 points or closer to his prediction just twice.
OK for a rah rah fan. Not for a supposed insider with football acumen
The tie counts as a loss, he’s 8-4, but still better then me.
http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2012/12/05/deep-thoughts-kaepernick-tends-to-pass/
Gotta love this kids demeanor….
Hammer – Good link, agree Kap has great demeanor!….I can remember the old days in here when Eric Branch ran the show. He was good but not as good at Matt and Grant.
Kap has a huge 100 pound tortoise……I have a common Calif desert tortoise (got from rescue operation) it’s 30-35 years old but only about 10-12 pounds.
Now that is what boxing is supposed to look like. Holy cow what an amazing knock out!
Manny got knocked out? Wow.
Not just knocked out, but knocked the F out! They were toe to toe beating the crap out of each other and then right at the bell Marquezz connected with a monster right and Manny was left wondering how the ground got on his back.
The same way Debo knocked out Red? “That’s my bike punk.”
Damn Coffee, I thought Manny was unbeatable.
Manny lost the last fight too but the judges didn’t see it that way.
Coffee, How the canvas found his back. Niw that shi- is funny!
I sure hope the 49ers win. I won’t be able to handle the Patriots game next week without some sort sedative if we are 8-4-1.
Goodmorning Niner Fans. I’m ready to get rid of that bitter taste of defeat. How about we cook us up some Dolphin for lunch today guys?
I’m doing brisket.
Jacobs time nearing an end?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000107677/article/brandon-jacobs-rotting-away-on-san-francisco-49ers
Me too.
JACK HAMMER:
You noted that the past three games by each QB might be a better comparison that my season-long analysis. You suggested that Kaep might compare better on this basis.
You were absolutely correct. Over his last 3 starts, Smith produced some of the worst numbers in the NFL and lost the points per game comparison 13.3 – 18.5. If you take out the Giants game, which appeared to me to be an aberration in Smith’s play since Harbaugh became coach, the numbers are about even with Smith winning the points battle by 5 points per game.
However, no matter how you slice up the season, the fact that the Running Backs get around 1.5 yards more per carry with Smith selecting the play at the line remains.
This is disturbing. On paper, it will not matter vs MIA or NE because they are weak vs the pass. However, in SEA, which could be a case of one game for the division title, this could be a disaster.
Hopefully Kaep will be a quick study in regard to pre-snap reads and we will be OK. Otherwise, I would think it best if they go pass-first like in the Walsh era. That would fit Kaep’s skill set and might open up the run.
Anyway, how the RB’s do will be interesting to watch.
COFFEE:
It is inaccurate to describe Kaep as 2-1-1 and worse to assess him at 2-2. Yes, he needed and needs to do better. However, he entered the first Rams game down 7, so it is more accurate to asses him at 3-1 since he outscored the opponent. Akers miss only emphasizes this.
DRS,
Agree with the decrease in yards running being an issue. I think it comes down to 3 things, 1) Kaepernick has limited time as a starter. 3 starts to 20+ for Smith, 2) the coaches need to either coach him up quicker or hit the right call more often, 3) the strength of the opposition. The front 7 of the Bears and Rams are among the best in the NFL.
It will definitely be worth watching today and moving forward. Good stuff.
Jack
We supposedly put in CK because he is better than AS. Therefore I don’t buy the strength of the opposing teams defense being the problem.
If CK can’t handle it, then he shouldn’t be in there. Simple as that.
Hammer,
As I mentioned earlier this week, if the season ended after the Rams game all of us would have a viable reason to dismiss Harbaugh’ decision.
But there is still a quarter of the season to play. CK will be defined much better after the season.
Many here are saying that CK has to play at the level in which he beat the Bears.
That would be a hard feat even for A.Rodgers and T.Brady.
CK has/will make mistakes. My hope is that unlike the Rams game, that the mistakes are not game changing.
I’m excited to see how CK plays today.
I want to see his attitude/psyche following a subpar performance.
I want to a QB that stays within himself and the game plan and not try to prove that last week was a fluke by overcompensating.
At this point, CK just has to WIN.
Waking up hearing that Manny got knocked out, wow!
Suddenly the Paqual Meriwether fight has lost It’s luster.
Looking at some ideas for a CK nickname.
I generally like to wait until a player earns it, but I’ll humor myself and throw in Cyborg7.
But when all is said and done, I still like CK7.
This is the best suggestion I have heard yet,
exgolfer says:
December 8, 2012 at 11:39 pm
How about just “7″? You know, like what George Costanza wanted to name his first child.
Hammer – Lol…….7 works for me. Nice job xgolfer!!
The great Mickey Mantle #7.
I saw a picture of a pylon he autographed for a fan and he signed it as Optimus Prime, but I’ve already heard other players calling themselves that, too.
Spaceborn – What’s the pump up song of the week? Is “Space Truckin” by Deep Purple too old school for you?
♫♫ Come on……come on…….come on…. let’s go Space Truckin’♫♫
crabs, I’m all about the old school stuff – just don’t know that one – I should be able to get the major riffs down by game time, though. Looking it up on another screen right now.
Spaceborn – Serious riffs in that song. Hope you like it. Go Niners!!
LOL, I ain’t Ritchie, but I can hang. Actually not that hard of a song to play. I have a website that I got the tabs from with three versions. The power chords are easy, but I can cheat on the licks a bit if needed.
Since it’s a home game, I was messing with “Welcome to the Jungle” by G’n'R last night.
Spaceborn – Guns & Roses “Welcome to the jungle” always works. Rock on!!
It’s been interesting watching half of the 49er Faithful dumping on Colin Kaepernick for tossing a bad lateral in the Rams game. Let’s compare him to the greatest Niners QB ever, so far, Joe Montana.
I watched Montana throughout his entire 49ers career – K.C., not so much. Montana had bad games and bad plays, though people tend to forget them. One mistake that I rarely see mentioned occurred in the 1989 Super Bowl during the famous “John Candy” TD drive at the end. About 2 plays before the winning TD pass to John Taylor, Montana threw a pass directly into the chest of a defender who was standing near the goal line. The pass bounced off and was incomplete, and the legend was preserved.
That was a great QB near the prime of his career, making a huge mistake at a critical time, but it didn’t cost and was forgotten. Considering the situation, it was a much worse mistake than Kap has ever made, which I’m stating here just to remind people that mistakes happen, even to the best. Trashing a potentially great QB over a small, yet costly mistake in his 3rd start is not reasonable, considering how well Kap has played otherwise.
Whatever, Harbaugh has decided to go with Kap, who is the future of the team. Grousing about it hurts the Niners, plain and simple. It’s time for Niners fans to get behind Kap, sink or swim. Hopefully after today’s game that will require less of an effort from the suddenly-numerous Alex admirers.
This play…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJFOBI1cZaM
Hammer – Thanks for lookin that one up….He should’ve used his hands.
Thanks, Jack.
durf – Good post.
Adam
The part that is stupid is that JH announced AS the starter after Mini-camp. Then he allowed there to be speculation on whether CK would even beat out Scott Tolzein for the #2 position.
Now, somehow he is better than AS after AS plays an historically great game? If the guy was so good how come AS was named the starter before Training camp and how come CK wasn’t announced the #2 QB a lot earlier than the final day of roster cuts?
That is where the stupidity comes in. There was no QB competition for the starters job. And after our starting QB puts us in prime position to win our division and a likely bye, after an historically great game, JH replaces him with a guy who barely beat out Tolzein (an undrafted QB cut from his first team) for the #2 job? What the bleep!
Had JH not named AS the starter and had a real QB competition in Training Camp for the STARTING job, then this move wouldn’t be quite so bad. But still, after an historic game by AS for JH to pull him….just stupid man.
BS,
The coach Is an idiot right? You nust dont get it. Kap is BETTER!!! Your idol is finished!
“Grousing” about the QB hurts the team? You clearly haven’t been on this site in the last three years. If you had been you would’ve seen more than a discussion here questioning the change, you’d have seen all out hatred for the starting QB. Lot’s of Niner hurting going on by three or four people who can’t control themselves.
“Trashing a potentially great QB over a small, yet costly mistake in his 3rd start is not reasonable, considering how well Kap has played otherwise.”
I think you’re missing the bigger picture. So far CK has just .4 more yards per pass play than Smith, is on track to lose more yards in sacks (he only has 9 so far but has lost just about half as many yards as Smith with 24) and is 5 points less accurate, QBR almost 10 points less, etc. Plus the four fumbles, so it’s not JUST the Rams giveaway.
BUT… yes, agreed, it’s only his third start and he’s new, etc., so he needs to grow in to this and he needs more games under his belt for any of us to fairly judge him. It isn’t fair to judge him on 3.5 games and some relief work.
The sticky point with a lot of us boils down to this: In a year where you’re in good shape and should cruise in to the playoffs, why mess around with a science experiment in the middle of the season? The gamble here is that the numbers above improve? Why risk it? Why not work on that stuff in the off-season?
Doesn’t make a lot of sense. CK is a good athlete, smart, and a nice kid. I like him a lot. But… the season is on the line or at least the seed and a bye week is on the line so he’s going to have to learn fast, if not, this is a disaster.
+1
The only thing I can come up with is they figure the offense doesn’t change that much, as the defense is and has been the strength of this team.
In that event, they try to get CK to manage the games better and they still cruise in winning 2/3 of their games and they save $1mil in incentive bonuses.
If they expected an improvement in the pass offense? There isn’t much there other than some razzle dazzle between the 20s. CK has 1 TD pass per game, Smith had 1.44 per game. Neither is horribly exciting but points are points and we need the scores.
Or they see it as a wash between the two with more vertical pass upside, which we haven’t seen yet, but could arrive in time for the playoffs. I’ll let it play out and see how it works out. The other upside is he’ll be further along at the start of 2013.
That’s true, he’ll be more ‘seasoned’ by 2013.
I guess this is either extreme confidence or hubris on the part of Harbaugh. I don’t see a lot of middle ground here.
They must feel like they can build a contender each and every year. So far, Baalke’s pretty good at finding talent (although I will certainly feel better if one of his receiver picks pans out.)
Adam,
It’s also interesting how some support the Bear game QB numbers but dismiss the Cards game QB numbers. How can 18/19 232 yds and 3 tds be dismissed so easily? The Cards D always plays the 9ers tough and we sliced them up. ???
Everything is subjective I guess.
Sure would be nice to have one dominant QB that lasts for a while. Then we could pick on some other position for a couple years. :P
After watching some vintage JR/JT yesterday, I’m ready to starting picking on the receivers. :P
Just be thankful we are old enough to have appreciated the great BW, EddieD, JMo, JR, FDean, etc, etc. Some how, even though the 9ers are winning, it’s lost the magic. Just will never be quite the same.
Yeah, I agree. The 80s all by themselves were pretty special – looking back at it. Except for the music. :P
But yeah, we had Madden and Summerall calling games on CBS and all the outstanding players and coaches. Rathman running over guys, JT breaking four tackles to hit the end zone, JR turning five yard slants in to 80-yard TDs. Damn, I have a tear in my eye now! Such perfection.
Man, what a time that was to be a Niner fan. You’re right, THAT was magic. These days… meh, it’s OK but definitely not the same. We have a long way to go before we get the Dynasty back (if we ever get it back.) Maybe they can claim the Dynasty II at the new stadium. Although… I have to admit, I’ll miss the Stick. She’s a dump but she’s a glorious dump!
Adam:
“I think you’re missing the bigger picture. So far CK has just .4 more yards per pass play than Smith, is on track to lose more yards in sacks (he only has 9 so far but has lost just about half as many yards as Smith with 24) and is 5 points less accurate, QBR almost 10 points less, etc. Plus the four fumbles, so it’s not JUST the Rams giveaway.”
@Adam
With all due respect, IMO the ‘big picture’ invloves the present and the future.
AS may be able to manage much better then CK at the moment, and the current .4 numbers can change as soon as today.
What we do know is that CK can throw into tight windows that AS can’t. We know that CK can stretch the field (maybe not the last two games, but we know he can), AS can’t.
We do know that CK is willing to pull the trigger, AS plays too safe.
We do know that CK can extend plays, AS can’t.
We do know that CK can beat a team with his legs, AS will checkdown before running.
I choose to believe that CK will be ready come playoffs, and gives us our best chance at beating the NYG’, AS…… well, I’ll leave it at that.
Special K?
Razor – Not bad.
CK Maxx, lol
Special K makes him sound like he rides the short bus.
I just don’t like names that fans of other teams can turn into “Krap.” And believe me, they would, especically Seahawk fans.
McElroy is inactive today for the Jets. Rex Ryan is just trolling New Jersey at this point.
He wants to be fired is the only thing that explains his actions at this point.
What a great day for a game. The sun is shining with a crispness in the air. The blue sky is intense. And better yet, we’ll be celebrating the scarlet and gold by 4:30pm. The 9ers win by 14.
Yep, perfect day for football!
Great day for football! Let’s go Niners!
I’m going 21-14, Niners.
Vegas odds-makers have the Niners by 10 but I’ll go conservative this week and say 7. :P
Bad start for run defenses. Vikings first play, 50 yard AP run. Cheifs first play, 80 yard TD run.
Peterson is ridiculous. It takes 3 guys to tackle him.
The Bengals had a TD drive that consisted entirely of end-arounds. That was sort of odd.
Just saw my 5th Kaep jersey and I haven’t even left the Hotel.
Saw Nick Bonaconti last night….
I’m calling BS. No one was wearing a Bonaconti jersey.
No, I mean I actually Saw Bonaconti last night
That’s what I figured. Just messing with you.
Let’s bust a Kaep on the Dolphins
Wbere you sitting bro? Im on The san mateo bridge. Im in lowered east 35 row 46 seat 19. Trying to meet you at halftime.
Won’t be at this game. Was in the city with friends. You going to Cards game?
Yeah, ill be there to watch that assault or you kniw I wouldnt miss AS last regular season appearance as a Niner!
Josh Morgan just made a MAN play for the Redskins. I miss that guy.
You know it’s pretty much the only things he’s done all year right? Nothing to miss.
I know, and the Redskins overpaid him massively.
I just liked the guy for some reason.
U guys see that Brandon Jacobs tweet story? Will he get cut or a stern talking to?
They probably won’t cut him unless they need a roster spot. He’d go right back to the Giants with a lot of inside info about the 49ers.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s inactive for the remainder of the season though. I’m a little bummed out. I was really hoping to see Jacobs and Dixon on the field at the same time. It would be the first ever Tango in the Backfield in NFL history.
Dancing with the stars.
Tiptoe through the tulips
The 49ers have no reason to cut him. Like msc mentioned they know full well that he’d end up right back in NY and they have no reason to let that happen especially being down a back themselves. He can piss and moan all he wants and then pick a new team to go and not play for next year.
I dont see jacobs on the field. Hes been inactive so much I forgot his number! Lol
23J – What’s 7 doing?