SANTA CLARA — This is what Greg Roman said about the Dolphins defense at his Thursday press conference, courtesy of the 49ers.
Opening Statement:
“Good afternoon. Got a good Miami team coming in here, their defense playing at a high level. When we turn the film on and, you watched them last week, they played New England. We generally, really put about six games into our scouting report for everybody and then we all really look at the whole season to examine the whole body of work. They’re playing a really high level of defense. Excited to get back to the Stick and compete against the Dolphins. Guys are working hard, locked in and know what’s at stake. Any questions?”
Do you expect the Dolphins and every other team you play from this point forward to mimic what the Rams did, especially taking away the deep route, forcing QB Colin Kaepernick to go to the shorter game?
“I think a lot of teams this year have chosen to do that. They’ve taken away the deep throws and tried to force the underneath stuff. At times we’ve been very, very efficient taking advantage of that. It’s something we’ve got to continue to do. You can’t control what the other team does, so if they’re going to take away something, you want to work somewhere else and our guys have done a pretty good job of that so far.”
Does it help that not everyone has a defensive line like the Rams? I guess what I’m getting at is, what made them successful against you guys is in part, talent, not just scheme.
“They’ve got good players, everybody’s got good players. The Dolphins have an extremely talented defensive line. I think they’re ranked seventh against stopping the run and that’s pretty hard to do. They’ve got a really good defensive line and our guys, they’re getting ready. They’re watching film. They’re studying their matchup and have a lot of respect for what the Dolphins are doing.”
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Who cares if they take away the deep throw. Hit the boys short n get the running game going. When that shot opens up Kap will get it deep. If it doesnt open up, check it down n move the chains
That is what AS was doing steel. And it got him removed from the starting gig. If I’m CK, I’m not so sure about taking your suggestion. Which is the right one by the way.
CK is too green!
alex was doing that but why are temas taking away the deep pass??? its because kap like to throw it deep so they say we will give you the short pass so you dont beat us deep!!! alex didnt throw deep so the deep pass was there because defenses dared him to throw it deep but alex still wouldnt throw it deep or mid he would throw it short! thats the difference!
Oh so it’s defenses taking away the long ball when it’s Colin playing but if Alex Smith is in the game then it’s his and Romans inability to look or pass deep instead?
yup.
The world ain’t fair get over it.
Grime are you really that stupid or just pretending?
CK was suppose to add a dimension to the vertical passing game. Deep balls, bombs, taken the top off defenses. You know using all the new weapons. I’ve watched every game, can’t see it. Do you?
CK in 3 games = 13 passes of 20+ yards
AS in 8 games = 22 passes of 20+ yards
An increase of almost 2 per game.
How about the 10+ yard RB runs Jack in that same time Jack?
That is more important since that is who we are. A running team.
Especially first half numbers before the opponents D was tired.
DS has time of possession changed since CK’s insertion?
Prime
I don’t know. Keep in mind CK has played in OT, so that time should be *.
Just how I see it…the Chicago game was likely closer to our average than the NO/Rams games. In the NO game time of posession favored NO until CK put ogether a very AS like drive and held the ball for a 9 minute drive.
I don’t know what the final TOP was, but that sure helped.
The difference in TOP from 2010 to 2011 was about 1 whole game improvement. And I think we were better this year with AS, but not 1 whole game better.
I cannot say for sure but it seems like we don’t have those long sustaining drives. Our run game is now hit and/or miss.
This added dimension of big play ability is fading with each game it feels like. Play action too.
The 49ers have won the time of possession in all 3 of Kaep’s starts, and had the 4th longest drive in the NFL this season in NO.
In the 1st Rams game, the TOP favored Rams by about 6 min.
The Bears got us by a 30 secs or so.
The Saints was about 12 seconds difference in our favor. The last Rams game we got by over 3 minutes. Not sure how much of that was OT.
I agree, our offense has become flat. There’s no rythme. It’s like you wait a dozen plays or so for that one “wow” play that has everyone so excited. Defenses are catching on quickly because this isn’t new in the NFL anymore.
Teams have all year played that style against the 49ers (except the Bears, and that didn’t work out too well…)
Informed observers on this site (such as myself, of course) have pointed that out on numerous occasions when morons try to suggest Alex couldn’t or wouldn’t throw the deep ball, and he’s the checkdown king. They simply don’t understand football. It’s frustrating. I want to engage in intelligent discourse, but most of the time it’s ignorant blather….
Harbaugh appears to be one of those morons, eh?
Alex has 4 completions over 40 yards. CK has 3 completions over 40 yards – 1 less than Alex in 111 fewer attempts. 14% of Alex’s completions are over 20 yards. 21% of CK’s completions are over 20 yards. Alex attempts a throw over 15 yards 13% of his attempts. CK attempts a throw over 15 yards on over 20% of his attempts. I won’t say Alex doesn’t throw it deep but I will say Alex rarely attempts a pass over 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. In fact, he’s rated #34 in the league in passes attempted over 15 yards from the line of scrimmage.
By “informed observer” do you mean a guy who doesn’t watch the games and comes on this site to defend Alex without a clue about how he really played? That’s the Claude school of thought.
Ahhh … and the truth outs. All know the true Frenchie blather!
Clem,
I don’t expect either QB to throw deep much at all if the defense is focusing on taking away the deep ball.
Kaep didn’t take many shots against the rams, because they weren’t there, and for some dumb reason, Roman didn’t call nearly enough slants, etc. underneath, and chose to channel Jimmy Raye.
In my opinion Kaep is starting primarily because of the threat he poses with his legs, and his ability to improvise when there’s trouble in the pocket. I don’t think it was about any deficiency with Alex not being willing to throw deep.
Roman himself just told us why the 49ers don’t throw deep very often, which applied to the St. Louis game as well.
You snuck that little jab in the end there Hou! Nice!
Who has better completion % between QB’s ?
“Alex doesn’t throw it deep but I will say Alex rarely attempts a pass over 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. In fact, he’s rated #34 in the league in passes attempted over 15 yards from the line of scrimmage.”
Yet he’s still near the top in YPA?? Means he’s finding receivers short and giving them room to run after the catch. Not a bad way to run an efficient offense thats incorporated with a power running game.
Trying to force “big plays” when they’re not there can hurt this team, so hopefully CK will learn to take what’s there, if not it will be a disappointing end to the year.
Ed
Keep in mind AS has so few pass attempts. A better stat (if it exists) would be number of passes thrown over 15 yards (in the air I imagine is what you are referring to) per pass attempt.
The flat out number of passes over 15 means nothing since AS throws so few passes. When most QB’s are throwing 30+ times a game, AS throws 23 a game. That is a huge difference. So you need to dismiss the flat out numbers. Look at per pass attempt.
@ Houston:
What games have I not watched, but commented on?
I didn’t see the Vikings game live, but have since watched it online. And you know that because we already had this discussion. Yet, you still make that b/s accusation.
Why do you feel the need to make stuff up?
Oh, that’s right. It’s because you don’t know what you are talking about.
For what it’s worth, just adding stats to this conversation. CK over 3 starts: 17.7 comps/game, 66.64% comps, 8.77 ypc, 268 all-purpose ypg, 1 passing TD/game, 102.53QBR (to be fair, this doesn’t include rushing TDs because CK is used goal line when Smith starts anyways. CK’s rushing yards are included though). Smith over 10 starts: 15.2 comps/game, 70% comps, 8ypc, 1.3 passsing TD/game, 104.1QBR.
IMO, it’s a wash at this stage. Given that, I don’t see the point of switching from a successful QB in the middle of a hunt for a 1st round bye. But I’m certainly not the coach. As the sample grows, there will be a separation on turnovers. CK will throw more deep balls, but the completion % will also separate.
This is a very curious season. It’s like watching Rocky train for the big fight with Apollo Creed but then, in the 3rd act, Rocky is replaced by another guy.
As impressive as the Bear game was all around, the 3rd down conversion rate was only 4/12 (33%).
Well Prime since you asked, Alex has a higher comp %. 70 to 65.1 for CK. Hey, Prime who has the higher YPA?
HOU do you think SEA can still win the division?
They play AZ, BUF, SF and STL. 3 of the 4 at home.
We will probably have to win 3 of 4 but tougher schedule. MIA is a must win right?
Houston,
You have to take Kaep’s % stats with a grain of salt. He’s gotta get a few more games under his belt for a true sample size.
I agree, Alex hasn’t thrown it deep much, but look at his % and YPA. He’s been very successful. I don’t think that his decision-making vis-a-vis throwing it deep or not was a big factor in the decision to go with Kaep. I think it’s the sacks, Kaep’s wheels and elusive improvizational play-making that was the difference. If Kaep can succeed in that aspect, if he is even close to matching Smith otherwise, the team will be better off.
Why take the small sample size with a grain of salt? 1 solid game by CK was enough for Harbaugh to bench Smith. Don’t you trust his judgement?
Houston,
I’d bloody well hope that Harbaugh didn’t make the decision off of one game, and I’m sure he didn’t. Obviously, Kaep’s been showing some things in those sneaky secret practices that they were impressed by.
And yes, of course I trust Harbaugh. None of us on here have any real idea about who the right QB is for the job frankly, so we put our trust in the guy who’s paid millions to make those decisions. Some people are second-guessing that decision, and that’s fair enough. I’m willing to wait and see, and I trust that Harbaugh’s made the right choice.
As far as % stats go and sample size, that’s just common sense (or maybe statistical sense).
What do you think of my assessment of why Alex was benched? You agree or disagree?
Whose YPA dropped a ton after Sunday?
Yeah. Strong argument there. Comparing an average over 3 games vs. 8 games.
How about I take the Buffalo game as 1 of AS’s 3 games? See how that works? I think AS had like 25 passes for 320 or so that game.
How about you look at Smith’s entire 8 year career and stop throwing out the first 6 years as if they didn’t count?
Houston
Stop. You can’t argue with that thing. Why? First, unmatched stupidity. Second, it will not debate settled points, but will continue changing the argument. Third, it has no idea what a quarterback looks like. Fourth, it is heartsick with unrequited love for its idol and therefore refuses reason. The list goes on.
houston
Which QB played against the worse D in the NFL by a wide margin? One which had given up 400 yards in every game till they faced us. One which gave up over 20 offensive points a game till they faced us?
And which QB failed to get more than 17, and less than 400?
The Saints defense sucked.
DS the word is “worst”
Got it?
Geez!!!
Sycophantick your first 2 points brilliant. The rest garbage!
Prime
What the bejeezus are you getting at?
You keep replying to my posts. And people do prefer being around things that make them comfortable. If my posts are stuid, then you’re comfortable around stupidity. Which explains your life/thought process quite well.
Wasn’t it you who bashed me after Thanksgiving saying I am the one who calls names? Shouldn’t you ask Grant to ban you?
Take a look on the score card sweetie. You’ve called a lot of names being unprovokd.
DS
Your posts are imbecilic to a degree that begs the question whether you are a person of normal intelligence.
Worse, worse, worse!
Keep it up. Everybody loves you. “That” guy is beloved.
Tarzan is that you?
Still doing it I see.
Thanks for proving me right.
Haha
It’s “worst.” If you want to say there is no worse defense in the NFL, it is the worst defense.
So next time you claim that the Saints defense is worse than the Bills defense, the very worst, just get your words straight. I know you don’t like straight. I know you love Alex. I know you are a Trekkie who spends a LOT of time on Deep Space Nine, but it’s not enough, really, it’s not. You should move there permanently.
Primate booga booga Tarzan? Is that what you mean? I don’t get it.
Prime,
Pretty sure the answer to your question is yes.
DS, your such a hater.
Jacko it’s how you woo them not what they say about it afterwards!
Look who showed up, Frosty the Hateman!
Which happy Smither started posting again after CK7 had a bad game? Who roots for the Precious and not the 49ers?
Watch him disappear again if CK7 has a good game against the Dolphins.
DS
So what does this have to do with the Niners?
Do some more reading, and you will find that a lot of those signing the petitions were not from Texas.
I live in Texas, and while there is a strong group of people that have always want Texas to secede from the Union, most of us don’t.
Don’t mess with Texas…
txtree
Houston….Texas…you don’t get it?
And the fact it exists is a disgrace. I don’t recall ever hearing of such a petition. Had Romney won do you think CA would have made such a petition? Or Mass?
The Republican party is in very big trouble. Petitions such as this don’t help their cause as being anything but a party of old white rich guys who don’t care about ethnic people. That is why the GOP is trying to deny/ignore it now. It doesn’t help their party.
TXT,
let me ask you a question. Have you ever heard BS say, “you are right”, or “maybe you have a point”.
You live in Texas and BS is trying to tell you your business lol.
bay
Go away. Freaking stalker.
Talking football and especially Quarterbacking to BS, is like getting financial advise from Bernie Masdoff. Stay away from her, she is not exactly in reality.
Fitzperv, how many times are you gonna use that same stupid line?
At least if your gonna throw around insults, try and use some different lines. You are not that slow are you?
Talking football and especially Quarterbacking to Slime time Axel Foley Welcher, is like getting financial advise from Bernie Maddoff. Stay away from him, and his sister DS, they are not exactly in reality.
Hey DS, Alex Smith has a career YPA of 6.6. Do you know who has something similar? David Carr 6.4. Tim Couch 6.5. Matt Leinart 6.5
Jeez. How in the world did Harbaugh take a team to the NFCCG with such a liability at QB. The man is a genius.
HOU chill man! You are polluting the blog!
The Texas secession movement has been around for quite some time, and enjoyed a fair amount of support during the Clinton years. I did not know it was a real movement until I moved to Houston in 1996 and heard a program on the radio advocating secession. At the time, I was amazed how serious people were about it. However, after I had lived in Texas a few years, I found I was no longer surprised by much of anything people did there. I was happy to escape back to the west coast and leave Texas behind, especially Houston, which I believe to be the worst city in which I have ever lived. But I digress.
I am not surprised at all that the Texas secession movement has picked up steam after this last election. The people who believe secession is an option are not prone to temperate thought and considered actions.
This should have been below. Sorry about the odd location of the posting.
houston
Your state wants to leave the United States. If I were you, I’d be more concerned with the utter stupidity running wild in your state than I would be concerned with AS/CK/Niners/football.
DS
Never been to Texas have you? Completely escaped the financial meltdown in that state. Amazing.
Go back to Deep Space Nine, you nerd.
Sycophantick, that’s weak!
So you’re houston then
We’ve got a double poster here folks.
DS
Which one are you then, Odo or Quark?
DS is in DENIAL hahahahahaha. Oh my precious Alex. Oh…
And last but not least Jimmy Dugan!
Look at anger sticking up for denial
Houston, sico, damn boy what ever your name is. You a a double poster. The proof:
1. You use the same stupid “intellectual” joke houston uses. The one about autism. Very classy move by the way.
2. You replied to my post to houston in the first person. Do you have dementia? Some sort of weird illness? Because the proper grammar would not be for you Sicko to answer for houston at all. You being all into proper grammar and such. I’ll help you out Mr. Intellect:
“I’d imagine houston hasn’t but I haven’t been….(proceed to make yourself look stupid and classless with remaining of your post)”
3. Houston is also into being the grammar police on this site.
4. Houston has this strange fascination with the word “intellect” much more so than any other regular here. Likely because he lacks it.
4 reasons why you are a double poster. Therefore, you are houston. And you are very much a sicko.
God you are truly stupid. I knew you were a double poster from day 1. Just had to get you to keep replying and reveal your identity. Stupid is as stupid does Forrest Gump.
Now get out of here before you embarrass yourself more with your autism comments thinking you are so smart and classy for using them.
>>The proof:
I’m laying odds it’s Neanderthal Offense. That guy went extinct about the same time Sycophantick evolved the ability to put finger to keyboard.
ribico
I remember houston making some autism remarks before. Not exactly something everybody thinks of or calls others on a football blog.
Same style. Same put-downs. Same incessant obsession about proper grammar and intellect. Same houston.
If not, then there is another sicko person out there who likes to make jokes about autism. And sicko really has a lot to explain why he thinks I addressed him about the state of Texas or why I would since his name doesn’t imply Texas at all.
DS
Were did you hear that the State of Texas wants to leave the US..
Take a look on how many people have submitted petitions for their state to cede from the US.
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petitions
Now can we get back to football..
@tree
Maybe DS was referring to Rick Perry’s remarks about ceceding being better than accepting Federal funds. The Governor always expresses the opinions of everyone in his/her State. God knows, when anyone asks me what I think, I always defer to Arnold or Jerry Brown.
The politics of polarization in our country are almost as hyperbolic as this blog.
True…Both sides are going to be the downfall of this nation, the art of compromise is rapidly being replaced with political extremism..
txtree
Just type up something like “Texas secede from US” into a search engine. You’ll find all sorts of stuff.
Here is a quote from the first article I clicked on:
“A Texas petition to secede from the union now includes 50 states. However, the secession petitions, which tops 100,000 signatures, is not supported by a several Republican governors. In the wake of Barack Obama’s victory, GOP officials are hoping to reach across the aisle and rebuild the party’s image based on the post-election mandate”
http://www.examiner.com/article/petition-to-secede-from-the-union-hits-50-states-gop-governors-disagree
I first heard about it on PBS Newshour. It’s a real petition. I know the likelihood of it meaning much of anything other than some press is low. But it still says something about sore losers and the ridiculous actions some are willing to take.
Hmmmm..a lesson is in there somewhere for this blog.
Not a pejorative, seriously, DS, just an observation given your proclivity for overstatement and myopia. Maybe a trip to the doctor is in order for you, my son!
“Texas Secessionists Have a Political Action Committee Now”
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/12/texas-secessionists-have-pac-now
Now I wouldn’t consider those wackos any more representative of the average God-fearing Texan than certain loud mouthed posters here on this site are representative of your average 49er fan. But the squeaky wheel does get the grease.
You’re confusing me with someone else.
As long as you continue to back Alex Smith, you will continue to be the most asinine of all people on here. Never mind you can’t back up any of your claims. Never mind that Coach doesn’t agree with you. Never mind that nobody wanted to sign Alex. Never mind that Alex couldn’t win two big games in a row. Never mind that Harbaugh benched Smith as soon as he possibly could. Never mind any of that. The worse defense?
Get this imposter a drink!
Give houston one. They need to share one together Prime!
I don’t think he’s of age…
I don’t know oregon.
He’s really an angry SOB. To get like that, you need to have been around awhile. So, he’s very likely of age.
Younger people are more hopeful and not quite such dicks.
@ds I mean bs why do have such a love affair with Alex smith are you two related in some way?
returning to form hov. How enlightening are your posts? You do have that magic touch.
Get a clue. AS won. You didn’t like it and are a jerk to those who disagree. End of story.
I don’t drink. I don’t drug. What’s your excuse for fondling your Alex fathead?
Are teams really taking away all the deep stuff from the 49ers? or is it like this with most teams throughout the league which also throw the ball downfield just about as much as we do. The difference is, we only throw 20 -25 times a game and most other teams throw 35 to 40 passes. We all want big numbers from Moss, Crabs, CK, Vernon even AS…it’s just not going to hapen as long as Roman sticks to this run first and again and again, oriented philosophy. The Niners play a conservative, safe, style of football on offense. With Romans 20 completed pass attempts at 8 yards a pop…that’s not alot of passing yards to go around. If the wide-outs get 5 catches (or 25% of the passes made) that’s a great game…considering. Will we win more games with a “throw more downfield” with abandon mentallity? I don’t know, maybe CK can do it better. I feel like the dam Roman’s built is eroding and more and more fans want to see the 49ers play more like Greenbay, the Saints or the Patriots…this passing attack style of fast and exciting football.
Then fire Roman. Roman’s offensive philosophy is just the opposite and we have been winning with it. Harbaughs had to much success with Roman and is not going to swith now (though, I thought the same about Alex) we watch too many ESPN highlights and that’s all they show. Alex was averaging over 8 yards per pass completion…best for third in the league…The teams that have beat us seem to dink and dunk away down the field efficiently anyway. They eat up the clock, avoid risky situations that result in turnovers and run against us if if they are having little success. I watched Joe Montana’s final game winning Superbowl drive against the Bengals on youtube today and he was throwing the ball shorter distances ans with less velocity that Alex, but we won. Jerry Rice did catch a short slant and gain about 30 yards after the run, but he not playing for us right now…Ted Ginn jr. is instead. Eventually something opens up deep or there is a mental lapse in the defense and all the sudden Vernon becomes “Mr. Wide Open” running a 30 yard wheel route for a touchdown. If we expect to see CK winging it down the field 20 to 30 yards deep on almost every passing play..we are delusional and he is doomed to failure.. I know his arm is a cannon…but a fastball to Moss 10 yards down the field is only going to result in a drop while also, crushing his precsious phalanges..for the most part give CK alot of credit, despite a strong arm he does sem to throw with a lot of touch, which is impressive…He still needs to learn to back off on certain throws though…especially to Delanie and Gore. If you really want to watch a NFL game where all the QB did for the most part was dink and dunk down the field go back when we played the Saints in the semi-final game. Yes they had a couple long broken plays, but we forced them to make short five yard throws and eventually they lost their patient and turned the ball over, fumbles or interceptions. Who would of thought it? Drew Brees, a dink and dunker…when he has to be.
If you want more of a pass happy offense, then you will need to fire Harbaugh. While Harbaugh was at Stanford, it was the same strategy – power football, establish the run, play action, TE gets involved, …..
There is just no argument about the talents Kaep has that exceed Alex’s. Kaep is the better passer — more accurate, bigger arm. He is also far more mobile. His deeper drops make for a bigger pocket and fewer sacks. He also extends plays better than Alex and, when he runs, is a better runner. He also throws more overhand, which lets him get the ball out under pressure later.
Alex, on the other hand, is the better game manager. Although he has made similar mistakes earlier in his career, at this point we would never see him retreating 25 yards on a pass attempt or tossing that pitch.
I think Kaep will quickly learn not to make those mistakes. And, let’s not forget, he had both Ram games won until Akers and Walker let us all down.
Where the discussion about these 2 QB’s gets tricky, however, is in the area of pre-snap reads and the play selection that results from those reads. When Kaep is under center, the running backs have averaged 4.0 yards per carry. With Smith at QB, the running backs have averaged 5.6. This may indicate that Smith is better at pre-snap play selection.
When you take all plays into account, passes, receiver runs, QB runs, sacks, passes and running back runs, Kaep gets around 38 more yards per game than Alex, which is worth about 8 places in the league standings of yards per game.
The question is, can you get those yards when you need them to control the clock. Based on the above, it would seem that Smith would be more likely to do that. This may be why Harbaugh has talked abut how well Smith has played the past 2 seasons. Hopefully, Kaep will improve his play selection real soon.
LOL. Love the poll, Grant.
I see a new scapegoat in the making if the 49ers stumble from here on out.
>>I see a new scapegoat in the making if the 49ers stumble in the post-QB switch era.
Fixed that for you, ribico.
The decision to remove AS11 has nothing to do with deep ball ability, concussion or performance. It has everything to do with salary cap reduction/restrictions when AS11 is released and then resigning other longer term players. Do not get me wrong, I do believe that CK7 is the future franchise QB. But defenses now that CK7 still does not have the touch for short throws and at times his decision making is suspect. Just look at the Rams game. Why would someone run 17 yds between the line of scrimmage and out yourself to risk a safety. Second, when in Gods name to you toss with your left hand/arm, when you throw with your right hand and lastly going out of bounds during your last drive to stop the clock. This is not just being a rookie. It demonstrates poor decision making ability.
Take into consideration we have now gone from a guy that takes what the defense offers and checks down quickly, is athletic and is very efficient to a guy where defenses are taking away the deep ball and force him into short and check down throws, is more athletic but demonstrates questionable decision making. Who would you want to win the most critical game?
Someone mentioned that it seems like you wait for a dozen plays for the ‘wow’ play to take place.
In truth, we have been waiting for several years for the ‘wow’ play to take place. Very little is being said about the fact that AS has reached his ceiling in this offense.
If we don’t have any ‘wow’ plays in the playoffs, we can write off any hope of a SB this year. AS may have had a minimum of 3 ‘wow’ plays over the last two seasons. Two of them came against the Saints in last year’s playoff game. But the word ‘average’ comes to my mind when I look at AS’ overall career stats.
Once again, I have to trust Harbaugh’ decision in making the change. He, more than anyone in the Org stands to lose credibility if the transition fails. There’s no way that Harbaugh made this decision on a lark. His evaluation process is good enough for me.
True, but Smith is executing what Harbaugh wants. Control the clock, be efficient, and take a shot when you can. Let us not foret that our front line is only now starting to gel and give better pass blocking. Do you honestly think CK7 would have done better being a starter for last years Saints pre-season game?
Your deep ball play is only as good as the amount of time that the front line can give you on blocking.
3rd down conversions? 50 more yards per game? Less sacks?
Can someone find stats on 1st down conversions on first and second down? I’d be curious to see how those looks compared to 3rd down stats. I always see people commenting on how bad we’ve been on 3rd down, and I certainly see the importance as it leads directly to 4th down and usually a punt or field goal attempt, but if you’re converting at a high rate on 1st and second down then the importance of 3rd down gets minimalized.
@ AES
You missed my point on the “wow” plays comment. All the cap supporters keep talkng about the big play ability and switching qb’s for that reason and i’m just pointing out it ain’t there much. Defenses take it away. It’s pointed out by coaching that it gets taken away by alot of defenses.
I was reading and article on Ninernation that talked about how the Rams forced Kap to play like Alex. It’s not playing like Alex, It’s seeing defensively what Alex see’s. I said in another post a while back that if defenses take away what Kap does best, then what? That was answered against the Rams. You have Alex. Alex is better at being Alex than Kap is!
Oops! Different computer! Forgot about the gobble gobble turkey.
Montana
Big plays are more often than not the result of bad defense.
Last year the Raiders were #1 at big plays. They played Miami which has a good D. What happened? The good D crushed the big play Raiders down. Because the Dolphins were sound defensively. The Bears weren’t. The Rams were. If you are, big plays virtually vanish. That is why I prefer consistency instead. Much harder to away consistency than it is play explosiveness.
Sorry to get back to you so late Montanaman.
As always, you make good points.
The only caveat I would add is that CK (even w/mistakes) still should have had a win.
Think about it Montana, had D.Walker caught a sure TD, the talk of the week would have been about how CK showed great resilience and poise in bringing the team back.
Funny how a couple of mistakes by CK can somehow offset a dropped TD pass that could have won the game.
Go figure?
I think the coaching staff is counting on the offense resembling the Redskins as far as the use of the Pistol before the playoffs. I’m hoping for the same thing but RG3 was entrenched as the starter in training camp. Big gamble but hoping for the best…
Interesting that the first time we played the Rams, they were coming off a big loss to New England. Miami also loses to NE, and then faces us. Possibility that MIA gives us a better shot than we’re prepared for.
Right. Miami represents a challenge. The coaches & players seem, based on what I’m reading, to be taking this game seriously. It will be interesting to see what they throw at CK and how he and GRo handle it. The Dolphins have good DTs and edge rushers. Do they repeat what the Rams did? Or can SF attack them like they did Detroit?
Also, BB will be watching us against a familiar opponent that he can evaluate us against. He’ll see what does and doesn’t work for the Fins and bring some of his old voodoo when the 9ers come to Beantown.
IMO, Colin isn’t slipping or regressing. He and the Niners are being attacked by NFL defensive coordinators who know what they’re doing.
Brotha I am worried that the 49ers might lose the divison lead. Our schedule is way tougher than SEA who plays the majority of their games at home, which we know they are a much better team playing there.
If we have to travel or play in the wildcard game we could be one and done. Then what?
@FDM
Oh, yeah, with the Niners going 0-1-1 vs Rams, and Seattle getting their big win in Chicago, the Div is up for grabs. No easy road. Buckle up and buckle down.
Brotha/FDM
That is why when everybody was cheering for the Redskins to win, I wasn’t.
DS everyone might get their wish very soon if we dont win the division and have to play the Giants on wildcard weekend. CK was brought in because AS could not beat the Giants right?
The Seahawks also just lost one starting CB for the remainder of the regular season, and will most likely lose the other by the time the 49ers travel to Seattle.
It is always good to have concern, but they are dealing with their own issues right now.
Jack
We’ve lost Hunter and Williams for the season. We have the suffered the most.
Plus Seattle in Seattle is just freaking hard. Even when Seattle stank, they never really had a bad record because of that home stadium. AR/DB/TB all elite QB’s went in thinking one thing only to find out something else.
You don’t win up there. That is why last year AS winning that game throwing that great pass to MC who made the best catch of his career was such a big deal to me. If you can win there, you can win anywhere.
Hunter and Williams were valuable pieces of the team, but losing 1/2 of your starting secondary is a little different than a change of pace back and your 3rd or 4th WR.
Jack they have a replacment corner in Walter Thurmond who is as capable and who the Seahawks think might be better.
Especially for a Seattle team that is built on defense. Specifically there “tough” secondary. That is and might be a even bigger loss for Seattle.
Jack
Points are:
1. We are a running team. At least JH better remember we are or it won’t matter who is starting in which position. Thus losing the change of pace back is a big deal.
2. Add to that, FG tends to get injured late in the year, and this timing couldn’t be worse. If we lose FG, we’re finished. FG saved CK’s butt in the first Rams game which should have ended as a loss instead of a tie. If he gets too many carries and can’t carry the load when it matters most (playoffs), we’re done.
3. The fact that we lose KW means we don’t have that extra good WR to help take advantage of the missing players in the secondary. So we lose our #3 (or #4) WR. Now Ted Ginn takes his place. See where I’m going with this?
jsand
When did these two guys get to Seattle? Because Seattle in Seattle has been tough for over a decade. That is the point.
They have depth in the secondary with Trufant and Jeremy Lane who are good players. Also, Sherman might not get suspended.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out in a couple weeks, if in fact Sherman is gone as well. The 49ers beat them here by pounding them between the tackles in the run game. If the Seahawks try to adjust and the backup corners are not able to play at the same level as Browner and Sherman it could open up things.
That will be a fun game to watch.
Seattle isn’t going to be an easy game. They never are wherever we play them. But Id rather face them with one or even two of their CBs out then the opposite. This is a huge loss for them if they cant play with their starting physical CBs.
Jack
What if Manningham was unable to play? Some injuries linger.
@ Jack
I’ve wondered if the team (Seat) gave the players any ‘guidance’ on whether or not to appeal. Even if they both serve out 4 games, having one delayed a week or two by appeal means you offset the damage somewhat. Like this week they’ll probably only be short by one CB; easier to cover for. Inquiring minds wonder…….
Good point Brotha. Ol Pete knows how to beat the system : )
Fortunately, Sneaky Pete is not nearly as good at beating the Harbaugh. It’ll be a tough game up there, but that goes for them, too.
Some teams have 5-6 CB’s and S’s that are better than other teams starters; Seattle is one of those teams. Neither of their suspended starters was on their team last year…one was at Stanford, and one was a free agent. As much of a believer as I am in the 49ers, Seattle at-home is at best, a toss-up.
Nice try Oregon, but both Browner and Sherman were starters in Seattle last season.
Since the debate isn’t going away, here’s another view:
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/57585/how-the-rams-contained-colin-kaepernick
The good news is that the Dolphins are less likely to have success doing what the Rams did.
That’s a well written article Claude, especially as it reinforces my own opinions. By the way, I’d imagine every team will play that defense until Kaep shows he can beat it consistently (and too bad for those pining for a half-dozen long bomb completions per game).
It seems to me that there’s too much reliance on using statistics to prove disparate viewpoints. As an example, I have seen several instances of using the statistics that the 49ers offense did not exceed 400 yards or 20 points against the Saints to indicate that they did not play well on offense. That may or may not be true. However, the following week, the Saints defense only gave up 283 yards and 23 points to a good Atlanta team on the road. Since the Atlanta defense got 5 turnovers, it wasn’t necessary for their offense to move the ball as far or as often to win.