Let me start by listing everything that’s working against the 49ers this week.
They are trying to win their third game in a row. They haven’t won three games in a row this season.
Seattle’s crowd and home field advantage – the turf – will be tough for the Niners to overcome, even more so than last Sunday night. At least the Niners won’t face a time change and will have a shorter flight.
The Seahawks are undefeated at home this season. They need this win more than the Niners, not that Jim Harbaugh is going to let anything slide in a week of preparation for a divisional game.
Seattle’s best defensive player and the NFL’s best cornerback, Richard Sherman, probably will play. He tested positive for performance enhancing drugs, but he’s appealing and the league is not expected to make a ruling until next week.
Russell Wilson has improved and his playbook has expanded since Seattle last played the Niners. Look for the Seahawks to move him as well as incorporate some of the zone read option packages that got him in the end zone so frequently last week vs. Buffalo.
The Niners defense played 96 snaps against the Patriots last Sunday night, which is more than 30 snaps over average for a game, so their recovery during this week might be a bit longer. The Patriots ran a full game of snaps in the second half alone.
Also, the elbow injury to Justin Smith, even if he is able to go, may limit his ability to play with the total intensity he normally shows.
Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks, too, did not look 100% in the late 3rd and entire 4th quarter last Sunday night. They were tired, but they were also nicked – both guys have been limited in practice this week with shoulder injuries.
So, the 49ers pass rush probably won’t be at full force Sunday night. On the other hand, the Seahawks pass rush should be super charged. When you add in the crowd noise and the quick turf field, their speed rushers become faster, and the 49ers offensive tackles, who can’t see or hear the snap, become a step slower reacting.
Also, it’s supposed to rain Sunday night, so the exchange between Jonathan Goodwin and Colin Kaepernick could be an issue again.
Vince Wilfork, who really is a load, was a significant factor in disrupting Goodwin’s snaps last week by aligning right in his face. The Seahawks may try to do the same thing with Brandon Mebane to see if the Niners have resolved their exchange issues.
If the game boils down to field goals, the Niners definitely do not have the advantage. David Akers officially has a “pelvis” ailment on the 49ers injury report. I am not a doctor, but I suspect he has a hip flexor or groin strain that is inhibiting his kicking.
Here’s how the 49ers are going to overcome all of that.
The Seahawks have to protect their back-up corner, Walter Thurmond III, who now is starting in place of the suspended Brandon Browner.
That personnel change by the Seahawks may tease the Niners into attempting more passes until they get a reading on what the Seahawks are going to do with matchups and coverages.
If Seattle features a variety of their Cover 2 schemes, with only seven defenders in the box, the Niners are more apt to focus on the run.
Also, with all of those injuries along the front-four on defense, the Niners might be more inclined to take the air out of the ball on offense and shorten the game by running it so the Seahawks have fewer offensive series. The injured Niners’ front-four cannot afford to play 90 snaps two weeks in a row.
Frank Gore will have a big game. The 49ers will run right down the Seahawks throats, just like Week 7. Greg Roman is a step ahead of Pete Carroll in that matchup.
The 49ers will stay in run personnel (just one or two wide receivers) as much as they can to keep the Seahawks’ explosive nickel rusher, Bruce Irvin, off the field.
Irvin is not a good fit at this time for the Seahawks other than in pass rush situations because he is a little light and would not hold up well with runs at him, so if the Niners stay base, even on some 3rd downs, Irvin may end up standing on the sidelines.
Also, his lack of mass and his penchant to rush the passer with reckless abandon should encourage Roman to run at him in nickel situations to negate his best attributes.
In the passing game, the 49ers are going to avoid throwing at Richard Sherman, just like they avoided throwing at the Patriots’ No.1 corner, Aqib Talib, last week. Talib gave up three catches for 31 yards and no TDs against the 49ers, and he’s not as good as Sherman.
The 49ers are going to let Colin Kaepernick take shots into the end zone when they’re 20 to 35 yards out, because they don’t want to kick field goals that are any longer than chip shots. Kaepernick is going to target his tight ends, or whichever wide receiver is not being covered by Sherman. Kaepernick is going to hit these shots, just like he did against the Patriots.
The 49ers will beat the Seahawks 24-20.
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Oh No! Grant predicting victory is like getting on SI cover
Kiss of death…smh
Damn it Grant.
At least it wasn’t a prediction of a blowout.
I wished you would say that the Seacheats would win? Crap !! I love your blogs but not sure why you have to be in the prediction business, especially your record is not so hot. But hell, I believe the Niners will win every game.
Correct me if i’m wrong but i think Grant predicted wins in all 3 of the 49er losses and their 1 tie. Does anyone remember how many of their wins he predicted defeat in?
I predicted the loss to the Giants.
http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/10/inside-the-49ers/prediction-giants-will-beat-49ers-by-1-point/
Grant i hope you realize i’m just yanking your chain. If I or anyone else knew better than you who would win we would retire and move to Vegas. We are all nothing more than semi educated guessers
But then again you might just be a jinx.
We lost.by alot more than 1point yo the gmen..
But i agree jinx…
Grant you’re wrong.
49ers – 24
Seahawks – 10
That’s pretty close to the same number I have Houston. I can’t see SEA scoring anymore than 17.
I can. This should be a one score game.
31-16 Niners
I got 31-13 but we’re close!
Nick,
I got 28 -16, Akers 0 for 2 in field goals.
Nick – I can’t see that cockroach Carroll allowing 3 FG attempts (16 points).
24-14 Niners.
I just hope the defense can contain Wilson and keep him in the pocket.
Dang it Grant.
I agree with you Grant. Pound the football. Limit the snaps your defense takes as much as possible. Attack the patchwork defensive line. Get down around the 35 and take your shots at the endzone with Moss. Need James to have another big game to spell Frank. I don’t see the Seahawks scoring more than 17 points against the 49ers.
Madden Curse Update:
Calvin Johnson 106 catches 1,667 yds but only 5 tds and his team, which was 10-6 last year on it’s way to making the playoffs, is 4-10 and last in they’re division after a 6 game losing streak. Thank you for not electing Patrick Willis and I will always vote against niners when it comes to being on the Madden cover.
They better not put the Kapper on the cover after they win SB #6.
I’ll vote against him a million times.
wasnt he supposed to get hurt though?
No the effects are usually a downturn in numbers sometimes that is due to injury however. He only saw a downturn in the most important numbers TDs and wins.
and I think Johnson has been playing through injury all year(not certain on that though).
Well, he might break Jerry Rice’s all time record for receiving yards in a season.
Not bad for your “cursed season”.
If you talked to Calvin he’d probably say “I’d rather win”.
http://ninerchatter.blogspot.com/2012/12/can-49ers-win-in-seattle.html?m=1
@ Jack:
Good read and, as usual, you identified the relevant keys to the game.
I have just one question. Which 4 of the 5 steps listed do the 49ers need to follow to win? (If I were a 15 year old girl, I would put a smiley face emoticon here.)
Claude,
You cry up here like a 15 year old girl!
Merry Christmas to you as well.
Hey thanks Claude! Where did you cut n paste that from? Lol . Merry Christmas to you and yours Claude!
Nice read Jack. Do you think the 9ers success running up the middle vs Seattle has anything to do with Carroll playing 330 lb Red Bryant on the edge instead of in the middle?
Grimey,
I think it comes from their style of play. They like to get their linemen upfield quickly and that plays right to a strength of the 49ers, the inside trap game.
thanks.
Good analysis/speculation.
Oh no Grant I wished you would predict we would get killed!
Everything is against us so far:
Grants prediction
Injuries to j smith and Manningham
Injuries to Aldon and brooks!
Tough road game last week
Loud stadium
Great Seahawks defense
A more mature Seahawks QB
A divisional game with playoff ramifications
A tired niner team
Shaky akars !!!
But you know what every given Sunday this team can beat anybody! Go cap and the Niners
Niners 24-21.
I’ve been thinking this would be a classic letdown game, with a good, rising Seahawk team winning at home against a less desperate Niner team coming off a huge road win. But a look at the stats says that the Seahawks are indeed dangerous, but the recent hype is based on them running up the score against 2 patsies – Buffalo, which would give up 50 points to my high school team, and Arizona, which has given up on the season and isn’t even playing for pride any more.
i’m still concerned because so many factors favor Seattle in this one, but we’re still the better team and Kaep’s dynamic play is worth at least 7-10 points versus expectations.
Niner Nation, we beat the Sea Birds the first time and they had both starting CB/DB’s playing, correct. Now, one of those guys are out for sure. Seattle also lost their starting DT Jason Jones on IR. Yes, we will not have a JS but have some faith people. JH will have us geared and ready to play ball. Sydney Rice has a nagging knee/toe as well. This is not the next game, it is the biggest game, period.
The refs messed up that DW fumble, but we already knew that.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/san-francisco-49ers/0ap2000000114003/Official-Review-Delanie-Walker-s-fumble
I thought it could have gone either way. I just hated the play call to be honest. Roll the QB out. Go power formation fake a handoff and go bootleg, pitch a sweep to La Michael. Throw a fade to Moss.
I hated the call period.
The biggest mistake was by the booth official who confirmed a bad call without sending it back to the referee for review and because the rules are flawed Harbaugh couldn’t challenge the play.
It was obvious to me that it was an incomplete pass and the NFL confirmed that it was a mistake by the officials.
When you’re that close to the endzone, I hate passes that go east-west. If you going to throw down there, throw it right into the endzone. If you’re determined to throw short, then why not a quick hitting bubble screen?
From Sando, “the Seahawks are only the 4th team in the last 12 years to win back to back games by 33+.”
The last team to do it? The 49ers blew out the Jets and Bills, the next week they scored 3 against the Giants.
Arrgghhh! Those dreaded Giants (lol).
It’s beginning to look more like the NYG’ are not going to make a run at the Super Bowl this season.
Dog-gonnit, they are the team I wanted to play in the championship game more than any other team.
The NYG’ are reminisent of the Cowboys of the late 70.’ They were the one team that we had to overcome to be the best in football.
Oh well, if it’s not the Giants, we’ll just have to beat someone else on our journey to the Super Bowl.
Thanks Grant. I guess it’s time to start preparing myself for a tough loss in Seattle.
Any chance you could possibly change your mind before 5:20 pm Sunday Evening? (lol)
I still have the 49ers winning this game, but you’re not making it easy on me Bud.
+1….. I think grant does this in purpose to screw with some of us “superstitious” folk!
I dunno, Grant. That guy Jim, the Seahawk fan, he says they’re going to crush us.
The Niners have beaten the Packers/Rodgers, Saints/Breeze, Pats/Brady all on the road. That was not an easy task by any means. None of those venues are an easy place to play. The Hawks/Wilson will be an equal tough task and is also on the road. The Hawks present a tough defense, a very good offense, and good special teams. The game being played in the great Pacific Northwest with crowd noise at its best and in the rain to boot. I think the temps will be in the upper thirties. Will the Niners win this game? Yup and it will be by two touchdowns or better. Reason – Niners are a better team across the board.
Oh gaaaawd NO! Why Grant? whyyyyyyyyyyy ( in nancy K voice)
Well something’s got to give. Mike Greenberg picked Seattle. You can’t get beat by Greenberg.
Been downhill since week one, Packers beating the Niners.
We know how that ended.
I love this segment. The 9ers offense is good and will get better as our QB gets better. Kap and Vernon should hook up on sunday.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-playbook/0ap2000000114365/Playbook-49ers-vs-Seahawks
I agree with Grant. The 49ers will travel to Seattle and defeat the Outrageously Loud Midgets in a close game.
What the heck, let’s do all week 16 picks:
Saturday, Dec. 22
Atlanta at Detroit: Falcons
The least cared about 12-2 team ever. Doesn’t it feel like the entire world is just waiting for Atlanta to lose in the 1st round?
Sunday, Dec. 23
N.Y. Giants at Baltimore: Baltimore
Which Eli will show up? Which Flacco will show up? Will the Ravens fire Caldwell and replace him with a mannequin?
Oakland at Carolina: Panthers
I wouldn’t pick the Raiders on the road against the Sisters of the Poor.
New Orleans at Dallas: Cowboys
Tony Romo will find a way to screw this up. I’m going to hate myself for this pick.
Tennessee at Green Bay: Packers
After the torture inflicted upon millions of viewers Monday night shouldn’t all of the Titans be on trial at the Hague?
Minnesota at Houston: Texans
Adrian Peterson is great but he’s only one man. Ponder looks like Alex Smith 3.0 (Kolb was 2.0).
New England at Jacksonville: Patriots
I don’t see Blaine Gabbert keeping up with Brady. Then again, I didn’t think Copernicus could either.
Indianapolis at Kansas City: Colts
If the Chiefs clinch the #1 pick will they rest their starters?
Buffalo at Miami: Dolphins
Immigration officials still haven’t allowed the Bills back into the country.
Washington at Philadelphia: Redskins
So, Juan Castillo to replace Andy Reid? It could work!
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Steelers
I flipped a coin. Then I checked the date on the coin. It was an old coin, so Pittsburgh it is.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay: Rams
The Rams need a win to get back to Fisher’s comfort zone: .500
Cleveland at Denver: Broncos
As much as I liked Trent Richardson’s performance I don’t think he’ll carry Von Miller into the end zone.
Chicago at Arizona: Bears
Someone needs to explain to me how the Cards scored 38 points on 196 total yards.
San Francisco at Seattle: 49ers
Every time I pick against the 49ers they win. Maybe I should change my pick…
San Diego at N.Y. Jets: Chargers
Usually I base my pick on which team is better. This time I’m picking based on which team sucks less.
“If the Chiefs clinch the #1 pick, will they rest their starters?” LOL!
I agree with every one except Baltimore. Their suddenly brutal defense is just what the doctor ordered to get Eli & Co. back on track.
You’re right, you have to pick Houston, but freakin Adrian is off the charts. I remember as a kid watching Jim Brown in the playoffs. I remember everybody knew he would get the ball, but they couldn’t stop him anyway. Doing this coming off surgery is even more special.
The author is a genius. I meant tool. You have been served. Seahawks dominate the 69′ers and will continue to. LOL!