This is the opening to my Thursday article on the 49ers’ pattern of winning two games and not winning the third.
SANTA CLARA — The 49ers suffer from a rare condition called Third Game Syndrome. They win two games in a row and then they don’t win the third. They’ve repeated this pattern five times this season. They’ve just notched their sixth two-game win streak, and the third game looms.
Third Game Syndrome (TGS) is the Unknown Factor, the X factor of the 49ers’ season. No one can pinpoint the cause of TGS, although some have tried. In their 12 wins, the 49ers beat their opponents by an average of 17.3 points, but in every third game, the 49ers were outscored by an average of 15.2 points.
How can a team play so well for two weeks and so poorly every third game?
Some 49ers dismiss TGS entirely. “We’re not really aware of that,” Donte Whitner said. “We don’t worry about that. It doesn’t really matter. I think it’s just a coincidence.”
Jim Harbaugh chooses to see the positive side to TGS: “(There are) probably quite a few teams that would want that pattern,” he said.
He has a point. If you suffer from full-blown TGS, you’re winning twice as many games as you’re losing, and that’s very good. But here’s a strange fact: Of the 92 teams to play in the 46 Super Bowls, every one of them had at least one winning streak of at least three games in the regular season. No team with full-blown TGS has ever made the Super Bowl.
To read the full article, click here.
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The next question will be, “How will the Niners pull off their fourth consecutive victory of the season?” Go Niners!
Right on!
The Roman stat seems very telling. What were the first half tendencies in their 11 wins?
With Colin, the passing game presents a much bigger threat than with most QBs because if he hits a few mid-to-long passes to open the game, the D softens instantly. If that happens, then the full array of possibilities, including a running Kaep, are on the table for Roman. On the other hand, feeding a heavy dose to Gore to start a game brings 8-9 into the box, and Kaep can then go big to Vernon or Delanie or Moss.
If Kaep had hit the first pass in the Seahawks game, the outcome would likely have been totally different, but he didn’t. I liked the way he started the Packers game, with a quick out to Crabs, but the next pass was not so good. I think the key to Kaep, if Roman wants to start a game passing, is to get him 1-3 easy, low-risk passes early, and then unleash him. The first play bomb he seems to overthrow. The early game bombs he seems to overthrow. Get him warm, then go with a heavy dose of runs, then hit the endzone from 25-35. But keep it balanced.
@ Mr. E:
Your reasoning dovetails nicely with something that Joe Montana said when asked what advice he would give to Kaepernick for this game. To paraphrase:
You don’t have to win the game on the first drive. There’s no need to take unnecessary risks by taking big shots early. You have a great defense; the game isn’t going to get away from you in the first quarter. Settle down, run the offense and get yourself in a rhythm. You’ll have opportunities to take big shots later if you need to take them.
BUT……..if you hit a knock blow early do the Falcons go numb and the crowd gets quiet?
FDM the Falcons are an explosive offense. They won’t go away quietly. But I think you are right in getting an early lead on the road can only help establish the game plan of grinding the Falcons down.
@ FDM:
I think the likelihood of “knocking out” a team early in games is overstated, particularly in the playoffs. Look at the Seattle-Washington game.
I also don’t know that a single big play would quiet the crowd more than would a couple of long, sustained, physically-dominating drives that keep Ryan, White and Jones cold on the bench.
CB / FDM
I think if you can keep the ball in Kaep’s hands and get a loud and raucous TD run from the Niners half on the first drive, that type of play would really kill the Falcons. Their coaches would be preaching the message Claude espouses, but they would be so utterly demoralized by such a play that if they failed to respond with a similar play of their own, it would be over. But that would be something that Kaep and only Kaep could pull off, and it would have to be a run, not a pass. The Falcons have seen Cam 2x and RGIII once, but neither of those guys is as dizzyingly athletic as Kaep, and if they see what he alone is capable of early in the game, they’ll pack up their bags and go home.
Quick strike run from Kaep, followed by a 3-and-out on D, and the game is over. But that is unlikely. I think they’ll try to possess the ball for a while early in the game. Their 20-10 TOP advantage over the Packers in the first half is what really sunk the Cheeseheads.
An opening drive lasting about 6 mins with a number of 1st downs and physical dominance would be the best possible scenario imo. Let them know early they are in for a long day and you are physically superior.
You can’t win a game in the first quarter, but you can lose a game in the first quarter.
MR E
“With Colin, the passing game presents a much bigger threat than with most QBs because if he hits a few mid-to-long passes to open the game, the D softens instantly. If that happens, then the full array of possibilities, including a running Kaep, are on the table for Roman. On the other hand, feeding a heavy dose to Gore to start a game brings 8-9 into the box, and Kaep can then go big to Vernon or Delanie or Moss.”
I think that is exactly what makes CK such a nightmare for defenses. He has proven that he can successfully exploit what the defense gives him. Leaving them with a ‘pick your poison’ type scenario.
The problem is if he misses the pass on early downs, then you make it harder to sustain a drive. I’m hopeful that the falcons will do what many have done and that ends up leaving crabtree to win his 1-1 matchup.
And to jump in on the silencing the crowd debate: i think the long sustained drives (that end in TDs) are bigger crowd-noise killers because simply they take the falcons offense out of the game for longer, and they include multiple defensive failings, which deflates the crowd. One long TD strike is great for igniting the home crowd, but on a road game the home team gets the ball back so fast that the crowd can get right back in it.
Dangle
Yeah, I thought about that. But I think Kaep takes your breath away, and if you’re not his team, that sensation is not one of wonder, but one of desperation, exasperation, like literally suffocating. What it would do to the crowd is secondary I think. What it would do to the defense is what I was considering. If you watched NFL Replay, there was some footage of Willis after Kaep’s long TD, where he just is amazed at the kid’s speed.
I’ll never forget the first time my soccer team played the state cup champions from Clovis. Their passing and movement off the ball were SO far beyond anything we had ever seen, and they struck so decisively so early in that game, that we lost 14-0, in soccer. Later that year, in the State Cup finals, we played them again, and because we knew first hand what they were capable of, we were ready, lost that match 2-1.
Delanie and Davis will have to catch the ball, something that has been a symptom of win 2 and lose 1 is dropped passes. One dropped pass by Walker really comes to mind.
By the way, I thoroughly enjoyed the article, Grant. You did a great job of drawing out the common threads present in each of the 5 non-wins.
I also share your belief that the 49ers would be better-served to establish and stick with the run game early – unless the Falcons are selling out to stop the run and leaving holes in their pass defense.
They should probably just go back to their basic conventional Offense to start the game, right? Lots of Frank and LaMike with an occasional slant and short out?
I don’t know about that. I think they have to see what the defense is giving them and then take it. I would like to see the 49ers establish the run, but they don’t have to exclude the read option.
We can’t allow their receivers to get deep on us. Minimize plays to the wideouts over 20 yards. Patrick has to be successful fighting for the football with Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez is the best ever. He catches everything. Patrick has to get his head back around to find the football. Limit the receivers big plays and we win. Just 5 sacks from our D line and we win. Dont allow the kicker to beat us at the final gun. I want us to dominate the physically like it appeaers as though we should on paper. Unfortunately, the games are not played on paper.
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Well said 23 welcher.
Tell me how many sacks Aldon Smith had and I will tell you who won!
Aldon had 0 sacks against Tom Brady in NE. Who won?
good piece, Grant. Two things make me feel good about breaking this pattern: first, i’d like to think that Roman has been consciously trying to conserve his running game resources. Even tho Kaep and Crabs have blossomed wonderfully, my view is that Gore is not only the heart of the running game, he’s still the heart and soul of the offense. Having a solid running game means they opposition can’t just scheme to stop a young, scrambling, albeit studly quarterback. And as a relative oldster in the football game, Gore doesn’t have a lot of extra hits to give up. Gore has been conserved for the playoffs, and we’ll benefit from ability to run a balanced attack in the next two games (touch wood).
Second reason: while i think this pattern isn’t completely spurious for at least the reasons we both note, the playoffs are a different game – getting “up” for the game isn’t an issue, everyone is prepared to leave it on the field in every game, and the Niners will utilize all weapons with abandon to get the SB championship.
My view: Niners win this game 35-21, as long as we don’t lose the turnover battle by more than 1, and we stay healthy. I remain concerned about A. Smith’s shoulder (as noted in the practice/injury reports) and J. Smith, but i think Brooks and Willis (as blitzer) give us the kind of balanced pass rush that separates us from the rest of the NFL.
In the past I had seen Bowman as a better pass rusher than willis, but Willis did a great job last week when called on to blitz.
I’ve been wondering as well about Aldon’s shoulder. He’s been a no-contact jersey in practice for several weeks now, and combine that with the fall-off in production in the pass rush, I wonder if he’s not playing hurt, with the 49ers just keeping it close to the vest.
It’s strange that he’s been no-contact for so long, but nobody’s really talked about what is clearly a long-term issue that he’s been dealing with….no?
Against the Packers I thought CK could have a big night scrambling off tackle on designed pass plays due to the undisciplined nature of Clay Matthews. Obviously, CK was able to exploit the fact that Matthews pushes way too far up field when rushing the passer. The Falcons defense is much more disciplined and will do a better job of containing CK in the pocket. He may get scramble yards but it will be up the middle or around the edges so he won’t have as many rushing yards on designed pass plays as he did last week. By spending so much time, effort, and scheme into stopping CK from running the Falcons defense will be exposed in the intermediate to deep passing levels. We saw this exact scenario play out in the Falcons v Seahawks game. The TE had a big day and the receivers were running free behind the intermediate zone. The Falcons are really damned if they do and damned if they don’t. I really like this matchup in the 49ers favor.
I think the 9ers will win this game. I just wish Grant predicted a loss. His picks have been the kiss of death for us this year.
So much for Roman going to the Jags, they hired Gus Bradley.
guess Im behind a couple hours on this news my bad.
I think all the ships have sailed as far as Roman getting a HC gig for next year. That’s fine with me.
Hey anyone in the Atlanta area for the game? I’m going to be out there tailgating in the morning around 10-11 am. Be good to see another 49er fan amongst the crowd.
Bushfather@yahoo.com
Niners will achieve the “threepeat” but it will be a close game.
To counter Kapernick’s runs, Nolan will probably have his front seven seal the edges and have his DBs estimate the angles more accurately. I think we won’t have Roman call another 45+ pistol formation plays like he did against the Pack. More passing from the pocket, more inside runs where the Niners’ O line has an advantage over the undersized Falcon’s D line. The latter should be a factor in the second half.
On D, the Niners need the Smiths to put more pressure on the pocket so that Ryan does not get comfortable to step up into it. The Justin vs. Justin (Blalock) match-up will be interesting. Just as with the Pack, the Niners will slowly shut down the Famcon’s run game as the game progresses and force more third and long. Hope to see the anaconda squeeze of the Niners’ D that typically suffocates the opposing offense.
Niners will eke out a hard fought win by one or two scores. Go Niners!
The Stomp-Stomp-Flop pattern has bugged me since game Nine, but I’m more worried about everyone overlooking the Falcons…
- Two 1000+ yards receivers
- Hall of Fame tight end
- Resurgent running game
- Home field advantage
- The Falcons winning 5 games within the final 60 seconds of play (the rest of the league combined won 8 games total in the last minute)
- “Small” (speedy) defense that was the NFL’s 5th best in points surrendered (The Niners tend to do better against big defenses like the Bears and Lions and have trouble with speed like the Rams)
The Falcons will test Culliver deep. Nolan will sometimes rush 3 and drop extra coverage knowing Kaep has trouble seeing underneath coverage.
The 49ers have more talented at about 17 of the 22 starters, but the Falcons are talented at the deadly positions. Root for the Niners, but lookout for Fredrick P Soft!
This is where I hope two bye weeks throw off the 2 game winning and 1 game loss streak. A week was skipped last week. Therefore it’s starts over again. They beat GB and Atl… Then another bye week and they win the Superbowl.
The 3rd game loss is not the pattern. The pattern is a loss after big road victory – Win versus Pats, Saits – loss to Seahawks, Rams respectively. The fact that it works out to be the 3rd game is a coincidence. Niners are probably intensely focused on a strong opponent in a big game and then let down their guard the week after against a perceived weaker opponent.
That is not likely to happen in the playoffs. Every game is a big game.
Also consider Niners win the big road games – Packers (weak1) , Saints , Pats.
packers (week1)
Actually the MIN loss came after a HOME win (against DET, week 2), and the STL tie came after a HOME win (Bears)
I hope the Niners aren’t over confident like many of us fans. I see this Sunday’s game being extremely stressful for us fans. Kaep has killed man defense and had more trouble against zone – so he’ll see a lot of zone. They will try to mix the underneath zone coverage to confuse him and there will not be the wide open gaps in the middle of the field. He’ll have to be patient, and we’ll have to establish Gore and the running game to give the play action some teeth. I do think their DL is a weakness we should be able to exploit.
On D, our secondary will have their hands full with three top notch receivers in Gonzo, White and Jones. The key here is pressure on Ryan. That is a must. I also wouldn’t underestimate their running game. Our run D has been one of the best all season but has looked more vulnerable down the stretch, and without a 100% Justin Smith, is not as impenetrable as it was.
Add being on the road, in the Georgia dome, where ATL has an impressive W-L record, and this adds up to a close game. I believe we’ll prevail, but it might take a year or two off me watching it! Final 31-23, Niners.
It’s the easy way out, but I think the pattern is coincedence. The losses and tie came against teams that played very physical against them and in most of the losses, they completely went away from the run game which is not their recipe for victory. The Niners are effective when they have good balance on offense and don’t turn the ball over. That is the key imo. The pattern stuff is secondary.
“coincidence”
To break the Third Game Syndrome, Grant needs to predict the Falcons to win or not predict at all.
Hopefully with Abrham gimpy, running with Gore and a quick intermediate passing will wear the Falcons down and we do not need to expose Kap! I do worry about Julio and Roddy White and what they can do, If Aldon can have a Sack Revival we should be ok, Hope we get in. If we are lucky to get to the Super Bowl, Who does every one prefer, Older Brother John or the Evil Emperor Belhichick! Great to be in this position but lots of football to be played!
Rebel i’m rooting for a harbaugh bowl. Primarily because i hate Belicheat and shady Tom Brady and i do’nt want them to even have a chance for another SB although it would be sweet to beat the cheating scum. WOW I did’nt know i had such anger issues
NE is a better matchup for us than Bal and their tough D inspired by Killa Ray but we’ll burn that bridge when we get there
Bos you’re probably right but my hatered of Belicheat and shady Tom Brady over ride my common sense some times
As a reality check, I watched the quick-version of the Seahawks/Falcons game when I went home for lunch. You’re crazy to underestimate Atlanta. They can ball and little number 32 runs like a maniac…
Whatever, I’ve read like ten whacky reasons and stats as to why the niners won’t win, and I have heard another 10 as to why they will. It’s all horsesh*t. The better team will win on Sunday. By every possible measure, the better team is the Niners. Even Falcons fans admit it. They also think somehow, magically they will pull it out. I suppose it could happen, but in general, the better team wins in playoffs.
I’m not sure why Mr. E and jordan can’t stop talking about Alex Smith (keep trolling, guys; it’s working well for you thus far), but for the rest of us, here’s Ben Muth’s weekly article on offensive line play. Fortunately, he chose to write about and diagram the 49ers’ domination of Green Bay.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/word-muth/2013/word-muth-san-francisco-clinic
The article provides tons of detail regarding, and insight into, the read option as the 49ers run it. It’s fascinating, good stuff.
Here’s my first QB related post from today. It spun out from here when you and Ribico kept defending Alex’s honor. Just to set the record straight.
Mr. Everything says:
January 17, 2013 at 8:44 am
@Rib
I did tell you so. It wasn’t humorous then and it’s not humorous now. Some of us trust what our eyes and ears tell us. The eyes told me this guy was huge, ripped, fast as hell, strong as hell, and knew how to play the game. The ears told me this guy was smarter than most, hungrier than most, coached by a genius in college, hand picked by a genius in the NFL, and learning under that same genius.
You don’t trust your own eyes and ears. That doesn’t make anything I knew humorous. Maybe you’ll learn to go out on a limb once in a while and make a definitive assessment rather than sitting back in the peloton and waiting for the tide to carry you forward. But probably not.
@ PBL/E:
I guess, when trying to rewrite history, it’s a good idea to start early. Unfortunately for you, there’s a written record that discloses what really happened.
The discussion, which was continued from last night, was about Kaepernick and how some of you were geniuses who recognized his talent early and told us so. Not satisfied with bragging on yourself, you then decided to take a b/s shot at ribico’s avatar, which in turn led to you to spew b/s about Alex Smith.
Don’t try to shift the blame to us merely because we called you out on your ignorant nonsense.
Thanks Claude. I love these articles by Muth. Informative and funny. The Great X of Shame for Eric Walden and the obliteration of BJ Raji. Phenomenal job by the Oline and Bruce Miller.
@ rocket:
In my opinion, Muth’s articles are the best thing about FO.
Speaking of BJ Raji, what the Hell happened to him? After his 2010 season, I thought he was going to be a dominating force for years to come. Now, it often seems like he is little more than just another guy.
Bruce Miller. I am a huge, huge fan of his. In my opinion, he’s blossomed into one of, if not the best fullback in the nfl. He can block inside with the big boys, he can move in space beautifully, burying linebackers, and he’s a really underrated pass receiver. He’s becoming my favourite 49er.
Good question. During their SB run he was a huge (pun intended) reason for their success. Reading Muth’s breakdown however underscores the fact he not only wasn’t effective in this game, but a liability. Head scratching to say the least.
I agree on Miller Angus. He’s become a great FB in a very short period of time and I’m guessing his past history as a DL has played a part in it. He already knew how to deal with the handfighting inside which gives him and edge now that he’s the guy instigating.
It definitely helps that his position coach was one of the best FBs ever.
I like the GATA technique by the 9ers.
so the cure for 2 win 1 loss syndrome is to win the 3rd game.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=btNCce1tntE
I think way, way too much is being made of this so-called pattern.
The first 2 losses were with Smith at QB. Last I looked, that had changed. In the tie, the Niners actually outscored the Rams after Smith’s injury. In the second Ram game, the refs gave the Rams a safety that wasn’t a safety, a TD that wasn’t a TD and missed a Ram DB grabbing Moss’ arm for 20 yards on a sure TD pass. Seattle was a game the Seahawks needed and we didn’t and there was no Justin Smith.
It’s not like the same guys showed up and screwed up every time.
Great!
To me TGS has more to do with the defenses we’ve played every third game than with anything we’re doing on offense. If you look at the teams that have beaten us in Minnesota, New York, St. Louis, and Seattle you’d see that the one thing they shared in common was an ability to put major pressure on the passer with just four men. In my opinion that is the one main solution to solving our offense because it allows for teams not to have to commit extra linebackers inside the box.
Maybe it’s just a 2012 thing. The TGS actually goes all the way back to January 2012 – Beat St. Louis in last game of the season on January 1st, then beat the Saints 2 weeks later in divisional playoff, then fell to the Giants in the championship game. So maybe 2013 is a fresh start and will be different.
the way I see it, it’s the second game of the playoff’s. the superbowl is 2 weeks later so it’s game 1, so there’s no TGS going on at this point
Wassup to all my fellow Niners fans! I found this today. It’s a chance to get a FREE 16×20 framed 49ers photo from the Super Bowl. Man when we win, I want that celebration shot on my wall!!!! Here is the link: http://www.the49ersphotos.com
Go Niners. Here is filling out the second with 6 rings!
Hey, Wassup to all my fellow Niners fans! I found this today. It’s a chance to get a FREE 16×20 framed 49ers photo from the Super Bowl. Man when we win, I want that celebration shot on my wall!!!! Here is the link: http://www.the49ersphotos.com
Go Niners. Here is filling out the second with 6 rings!