The 49ers play the Packers Saturday at the Stick. In the meantime, I’ll break down the key matchups.
LT Marshall Newhouse vs. ROLB Aldon Smith
To beat the Packers, you must pressure Aaron Rodgers. Aldon Smith, as you know, is the 49ers best pass rusher. He’ll be facing Marshall Newhouse, a mediocre left tackle who has given up eight sacks this season.
Aldon Smith finished the Week 1 game against the Packers with one sack and two QB hits, but he did not beat Newhouse on those plays. He swung around the inside on a stunt and beat Jeff Saturday, the center.
Aldon Smith was able to get pressure because he was playing next to Justin Smith, the best interior defensive lineman in the NFL when it comes to the “stunt” games. Playing next to Justin for the first 14 games of the season, Aldon averaged 4.6 QB pressures per game. In the two full games Justin has missed with a partially torn triceps tendon, Aldon Smith has averaged 2.5 QB pressures per game.
Week 17 against the Cardinals, Aldon faced the worst left tackle in the NFL this year, D’Anthony Batiste, and Aldon played terribly. Justin was still out, so the stunt game was not an option. Aldon had to rush around the edge, which is not his specialty. He finished with zero sacks and one QB hit. He has not recorded a sack since Justin Smith got injured.
Everyone’s expecting Justin Smith to play on Saturday. If he does and he can grab the left guard on stunts, Aldon Smith will be a factor. But if Justin Smith is not effective and gets replaced by Ricky Jean Francois, Aldon Smith will have another quiet game.
Advantage: Packers
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Grant
By giving the edge to the mediocre guard, you diminish a guy with 19.5 sacks. That is weird. It also seems to indicate you believe Cowboy will not be a factor. What gives?
Aldon Smith hasn’t had a sack since Justin Smith got hurt, and no, I don’t think the Cowboy will be a factor.
http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2013/01/10/donte-whitner-on-justin-smith-i-think-hell-be-95-percent/
I think he will be if for nothing else, his presence will be uplifting for the rest of the D. Our Defense is going to show up this weekend. I think they are tired of hearing how mediocre they have been. The Cowboy will surprise!
@ MontanaMan
That report either says something good about Justin Smith or something bad about Leonard Davis.
It seems nonsensical that you could put a percentage on Justin Smith’s health. He has a bum wing. The rest of his body is fine. I do not believe that his bum wing is 95 percent healthy.
Seems to me it boils down to: When Aldon succeeds it’s because Justin occupies two guys.
My guess is they will trot Justin Smith out there with a brace that won’t allow his elbow to bend in unnatural ways but he may not be very effective. And if he’s not very effective, Aldon may not be able to do much.
@ Grant:
Was Whitner saying that Smith was 95% healthy or that he would be 95% as effective? He’s obviously is not qualified to give the former opinion. I also am skeptical that he can be 95% as effective.
That said, multiple 49ers (RJF, Staley, Whitner) have provided positive reports about Justin Smith and his likely effectiveness Saturday. I can’t think of any competitive advantage the 49ers would gain by falsely praising him. Is it just wishful thinking?
By the way, for those who are interested in such things, here’s some information on the brace Justin Smith is wearing:
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2013/01/brace-yourself-the-device-protecting-justin-smith-from-further-damage.html
It seems like wishful thinking, but we’ll find out shortly enough.
I have read and heard from a # of different sources who believe that Aldon Smiths lack of production might have to do as much with fatigue as Justin Smiths absence. Which has alot to do with [in my opinion] P. Harralsons injury and Fangio\harbaughs penchant for over playing their starters.
Hopefully with a couple weeks rest and J. Smith playing at 80% A. Smith will be back to close to the top of his game. Also after reading this post i predict Grant will be picking the Packers this week.
oops i should have read grants last post cause i think i just posted something nonsensical.
I think you hit the nail on the head Old Coach. Aldon looked tired in the last few weeks – especially week 17. He had no legs left. Hopefully he returns refreshed and dominant.
Packer pass protection vs. Niner pass rush
Aldon Smith will be fine against Newhouse. Ahmad Brooks will be going up against RT Don Barclay who is an undrafted rookie. So, Brooks may have a big game.
Advantage 49ers
Aldon Smith needs to stop reliying on Justin and man up Saturday night, show the world you can get it done by yourself like most good pass rushers do. He should dominate his matchup, key word being should
Zzzzz… Where to start. Aw, never mind it would be too complicated. See it’s a team game but, well it’s hard to explain to some folks…
I.P football is a team game but is decided by one on one matchups
According to Matt the EMT, the brace will prevent Justin Smith from fully extending his left arm. It doesn’t sound like the brace will prevent him from grabbing the guard with his left hand and pulling him out of Aldon Smith’s way.
Of course, this is most likely wishful thinking on my part.
That is what I’ve been saying. His power arm(right) with be used for leverage or clubbing. The question will be whether he can keep blockers off of him.
Grant, two questions for you: When is your prediction? I agree with you regarding Aldon not being effective against horrible Cardinals O line, do you think the Packers will be able to run at will? Thanks
No, I don’t think the Packers will be able to run at will. The 49ers are most vulnerable to runs up the middle right now, and DuJuan Harris is not an inside runner.
I’ll post my keys to victory this afternoon, and my prediction first thing tomorrow morning.
Please predict a Packer blowout win…
My third eye does not foresee a blowout by either team.
That doesn’t mean you can’t predict one.
Nick,
Good call on Ahmad Brooks. He was our best pass rusher in the first meeting against the Packers.
Aldon needs to find a way to get the Rodgers. But to counter this I can see GB trying to establish a running game and swing passes on Aldon’ side.
This means that our pressure will need to come from the opposite side.
Grant, I have really enjoyed your articles/insight this year so far. I am truly hoping that you have 2 more weeks of insight for us and we get this win.
Grant,
Do you THINK that Aldon Smith’s lingering shoulder injury might also have something to do with his ineffectiveness? For the over a month he’s been wearing a non-contact jersey. Of course Aldon is going to play better when Justin is on the field, because they can’t focus on him if they are worried about Cowboy, but it’s insulting to say that all the great things Aldon has done is because of somebody else. 34 D-linemen job is to occupy blockers so the LBs can make the plays, it’s not one guy, it’s 3 guys doing their job.
Good call, the shoulder is a factor.
Aldon doesn’t necessarily need sacks as long as he can get some pressure on Rodgers, but I still think he’ll collect at least one, hopefully more. RJF is no Justin, but he is a decent player that can still help Aldon on that side if it comes to that now that he’s had a couple of games as DT. And I still remember that Justin was supposed to “kill” Newhouse that first game and Newhouse played him well, so you never know. On the strongside, McDonald and Brooks are going to have to step-up whether or not Justin is in and hopefully Sopoaga can add some pressure up the middle while occupying blockers. I’m sure Tomsula has all the guys ready for whatever transpires and will get it done.
All though AS’s numbers are down he is still a pretty good pass rusher. How many DE/OLBs got 19.5 sacks lining up next to Smith? J Smith is a huge factor but so is A Smith.
Exactly.
Aldon Smith is our only real pass rusher and teams are starting to double him more. Nobody else on the Niners defense has double digit sacks. Sopoaga should never be on the field on pass ing situations. Mcdonald isn’t getting there. Brooks came into the nfl as a middle linebacker so rushing the passer isn’t his strength. 49ers will need to draft another pass rusher in 1st round next year.
Not sure how Grant came to this conclusion. It may be that Aldon has a quiet day, there could be many reasons – fatigue, Justin Smith’s absence, shoulder injury.
To attribute his loss of form to ONLY Justin Smith’s absence is quite insulting.
If I remember correctly, we did not have a pass rusher that got 35+ sacks in 2 seasons before Aldon arrived.
Sorry Grant – this post should be filed under lazy journalism
How many sacks did Aldon Smith have over the last 2 1/2 games of the season?
read my post