Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick have the two strongest arms in the NFL. How do they stack up as passers? Here is a brief statistical comparison from this season, courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Deep passes (20 yards or more):
Flacco – 116 attempts; 47 completions; 1,516 yards; 32.3 yards per completion; 15 touchdowns, 0 interceptions; 127.5 passer rating.
Kaepernick – 42 attempts, 22 completions, 695 yards; 31.6 yards per completion; 5 touchdowns; 1 interception; 127.5 passer rating.
Analysis: Flacco was the most productive deep passer in the NFL this season. He led all quarterbacks in deep touchdown passes with 15 (Matt Ryan was second with 13). Flacco has thrown a touchdown once every 12.9 deep attempts, which is very good, but Kaepernick has been slightly better. He’s thrown a TD once every 11.9 deep attempts.
Under pressure:
Flacco – 170 attempts, 77 completions, 39 sacks, 18.4 sack percentage, 9 touchdowns, 3 interceptions.
Kaepernick – 69 attempts, 33 completions, 18 sacks, 17.3 sack percentage, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions.
Analysis: Flacco was second in the NFL with 9 TDs under pressure (Ben Roethlisberger was No.1 with 11). Kaepernick did not throw any TDs under pressure.
Who is the better passer right now, Flacco or Kaepernick, and why?
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great stats, thanks Grant (and how is your mom, by the way?) Flacco throws a nice deep ball and perhaps like Ryan is better than I or other writers/fans/critics had given him credit.
here’s how i’d answer this: who do I want playing QB for my team? hands down, the answer is Kaep, not Flacco.
My mom is doing well. She had a hip replacement yesterday and it didn’t faze her at all. Her blood pressure was unbelievably low before the surgery and she watched the whole thing on a monitor. She’s brave.
After the 49ers win the Super Bowl, I would arrange an invitation to Mr. Gore for dinner to give your mom tips on her rehab.
that’s awesome, Grant. Isn’t it amazing when someone you think of as a bit fragile turns out to be a warrior? glad to hear it.
Glad to hear it Grant. But I thought maybe you’d Jimbo it; “She’s fine. Working through it. Nothing to report.”
Hey Grant,
Glad to hear your mom’s doing well. Hip replacement hurts, but from what others have said it’s soooo much better and less painful in the long run. Hopefully she’ll get her golf game back in no time :-)
Glad to hear it! I hope the artificial hip is not made by JNJ. Wish her a speedy recovery and a painless and normal lifestyle.
I have had two hip replacements. I am 70 and spent the last week skiing in the Sierra. Tell her she will be fine.
It helps that Flacco has T Smith. The Niners don’t have a deep threat like that.
I think you’re selling Ted Ginn a tad short./
That was sarcasm, right?
lol yes.
To that point…why the heck is he not a deep threat?
It is truly sad that he is that bad at the deep pass. He is a track star who can’t catch on the run like the blown attempt at football that was Renaldo Nehemiah!
Flacco is the better deep ball thrower right now. Kaepernicus is more accurate in my opinion. As for arm strength, they both have cannons. Kaepurnicus has the stronger arm. Flacco has the experience passing in the NFL. Based on these assessments coupled with your statistics, I would give the edge to Flacco right now as it pertains to your question “best passer”.
Am I reading these right?
Flacco : a touchdown every 12.9 deep attempts.
Kaepernick a touchdown every 11.9 deep attempts.
Almost as good? Isn’t that better?
Grant, you changed it without commenting and now my comment looks whack lol
I gotta give the nod to flacco in this category. I wished ck had more attempts. But if you do the old division thing it looks like the pace would be almost the same. Flacco seems to be better under pressure also. He’s going to be tough to defend Sunday. Gotta pray the smith brothers come alive again.
To beat an old phrase, Flacco is at his ceiling, albeit a pretty lofty one.
That Kaep’s numbers compare to Flac’s when he is just getting off the floor… look out next year. We won’t be asking this question.
Especially if we can acquire a true deep threat. I like Moss, but he doesn’t have the wheels that T Smith has (as BigP points out above). Crabs doesn’t either — his skill set is in a different (but valuable) part of the passing game. Ginn has the wheels, but is not a good route runner and can’t really catch anyway. Who does that leave that’s not a TE? I’m deeply skeptical that AJ is going to be that answer.
AJ is really fast apparently but he won’t be a factor in this game(unfortunately). I’m still holding out hope that he breaks out next year. Matt Williamson from Scouts inc. thinks AJ may be a starter next year(he also thought Kaep would become the starter this year).
@rib,
I agree. I think Kap is a better thrower right now if you include all areas of the field. Flacco struggles to maintain a 60% completion percentage and struggles on a number of shorter throws. Kap is more accurate on the whole but needs to work on putting more air on some of the longer attempts. He has a tendency to throw everything on a rope but he’ll improve in that area.
rocket – Good post…..From what I see on film, Flacco likes to throw the ball up high to all of his receivers, Boldin, Torrey Smith and Pitta have done well catching these intentionally high throws. Flacco is spoiled now (he just throws it up). Fangio must have pointed this out to our defenders. Our secondary and linebackers need to get up in the air and go for the damn ball. If I can see this, I’m sure Fangio & Harbs have seen it on film and have prepared these guys for the high throws from Flacco.
That’s what Atlanta did to us in the first half and almost got away with it. Culliver, while draped all over the receivers has given up a few of these jump balls.
We have to simply beat them to the spot so they don’t have position in these situations and when they catch them, make them pay!
That or see more force outs, that are no longer called.
Maybe the question should be , who is the better QB, and I will take Kaep, Flaco reminds me of Eli Manning, he could be great on Sunday, or perhaps he might suck and be nonchalant.
That being said Marino had a better arm then Montana, but we won the game and so a better arm didn’t matter.
The main difference between the two is obvious…elusiveness and the ability to run with speed. That is why CK is better overall, but still needs to continue his growth and consistency year over year.
Flacco is a statue behind a pretty good line…
Wonder if Grant could extrapolate CK’s stats to reflect what they would be if he played the entire season ?
I dunno.. Flacco might a tad better,, as it is ..
but.. let’s have this same discussion next year .. AFTER
CK has played a whole season !
Grant .. a tip of the Niner ball cap to your Mom …
Hoping for a speedy recovery !
The only QB number which I have seen studied for correlation to winning is Adjusted Yards Per Pass (yards minus 50 for each pick divided by attempts.
Regular Season:
Flacco 6.2
Kaep 7.6
Postseason
Flacco 9.2
Kaep 8.6
All 4 numbers are excellent and all but Flacco’s Regular season number top every other NFL QB. However, with the Postseason being such a small sample, it is important to see how good the pass defenses were that the QB’s faced in achieving his number.
Flacco faced D’s that averaged5.7 AYPP in 2012, so he exceeded their number by 3.5.
Kaep faced better D’s that averaged 5.3 AYPP, so he exceeded their number by 3.3.
Both are excellent and should put up some scores.
SF 31-27.
Excellent post
drs,
Good stuff. It will be interesting if the 9ers DBs can hang with the bigger more physical ABoldin.
I thought Cutler was generally considered to have the strongest arm in the NFL.
Grant:
These guys are all great athletes but what impresses me most is that they are apparently really great human beings. You know the kind you would like to have in your corner in a pinch. And, perhaps Kap is one of the best considering how young he is and how well he has handled things. So that’s fine that they play great football but it is a true testament to their sport, their teams, the NFL and to our world. And I mean that truly.
Bruno
Nice to hear that all is well in the Cohn family.