The 49ers play the Packers Saturday at the Stick. In the meantime, I’ll break down the key matchups.
Mike McCarthy vs. Vic Fangio
Fangio wants Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner to play deep zone coverage to take away the deep passes.
Fangio called for a two-deep shell frequently in the 49ers’ Week 1 game against the Packers, and it worked. The Packers stubbornly and fruitlessly kept throwing deep, even on third and short.
Since that game, the Packers have adjusted and the 49ers have not. The Packers throw short much more often, to running back DuJuan Harris and slot receiver Randall Cobb. Those players keep the chains moving for the Packers.
Now it’s time for Fangio to adjust. He has not figured out an effective way to cover slot receivers all season. When the 49ers played the Rams, practically all St. Louis did was throw to their slot receiver (Danny Amendola in the first game, Chris Givens in the second), and it worked almost every time.
That tells me Fangio has not learned from his mistakes.
To win this matchup, Fangio must unveil complex coverages the 49ers have not used this season.
Also, Fangio needs to figure out a way to generate a pass rush. The 49ers have not had one since Justin Smith got hurt.
That’s a lot for Fangio to figure out.
Advantage: Packers
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It seems to me that the 9ers stopped the best slot WR in the league, Wes Welker. The start of the season slot WRs had their way with the 9rs but I think that they have figured out how to defend them.
Welker caught five of the eight passes thrown his way. He should have been targeted more frequently.
And Baldwin caught 2 TDs against the Niners Week 16.
If Welker wasn’t targeted more wouldn’t that mean he was covered? He does have the most consecutive 100 reception seasons. Its not like he doesn’t get his targets.
It means the Patriots turned the ball over too many times in the first half.
If I recall, Welker was a non-factor in the 1st half, but was a big part of their late comeback. 49ers started playing off coverage opening up the underneath routes, where he made his hay.
He was a non-factor early due to Pat miscues, good coverage and good pressure on Brady.
I agree.
The Pats scored enough points and ran enough plays in the second half to equal a full game for most teams. Welker had his opportunites. The 9ers shut him down in that game. Let’s hope they can do it against the Pack
Brady targeted Welker twice in the first half, and he caught none.
Brady targeted Welker seven times in the second half, and Welker caught five passes for 56 yards. The 49ers did not shut him down. The Patriots were a mess in the first quarter, and they got the ball to Welker in the second half.
Cobb is better than Welker right now.
The Pats ran over 60 plays in the second half. That is equal to a full game for most teams. 5 receptions for 55 yards for Tom Brady’s favorite weapon (since Gronk was hurt) in 60+ plays is pretty awesome. Since it was against Tom Brady. Let me ask you this, if Colb gets 55 receiving yars and no TD’s did the 9ers stop him from hurting them? Obviously yes.
Welker caught five out of seven passes in the second half. Rogers got roasted. The Patriots mistake was not throwing to Welker more often.
Stopping a good slot receiver is hard unless you drop linebackers into the passing lanes. Which then opens up the middle of the field at around the 15 yard mark. So some of it is just what poison to you want to pick? The Niners work hade to keep the passes in front of them, so I think they will live with the quick slants from the slot receiver and try to reduce the YAK.
Baldwin beat Carlos Rogers deep from the slot just a few weeks ago.
Perhaps if Cobb was on the receiving end of a few bone rattlers from a safety or LB in zone coverage, he might not be so eager to stretch out across the middle for that slant.
They also have Greg Jennings, who injured himself Week 1 against the Niners.
i don’t have a lot of faith in the niners secondary…except for the hitting part….c rogers bum knee on a slot rcvr is critical….
aaron rodgers on his 4 and 5 rcvr sets with a rcving RB is too much for this secondary….a well-timed wham block on justin smith may prove fatal as well … to slow the pass rush down on aldon side of the field is best served by flooding plays to that side of the field….brookes may be key in pass rushing ….
on the offensive side of the ball it is about containing CK to lanes….although he has only lost 1 fumble he is fumble prone….reading defenses pre-snap is key but GB tends to move around disguising their intent….Moss will be key on this side of the ball since i think crabtree will be double teamed…..
changing the QB was all about winning in the playoffs and last year the WR were missing in action …. this year seems to be two good rcvrs and now with james in the mix i see more threats for roman to exploit…..and i do think AS and CK would end up with the same results no matter which team was being played…
bottomline, even though i think the niners are more balanced i also think GB can take better advantage of opportunities from a been there done that perspective….. and will the weather although maybe dry will favor GB
Jaws if Green bay goes with five wideouts then they can not possibly have a running back as well!
Grant I respectfully disagree with your assessment about Fangio’s lack of adjustment to cover the slot WR! All it matters in the game of football is the final score and total defense! This defense still is one of the top five defenses in the NFL and they have been able to contain some of the best QBs in the league! To my opinion our secondary is even having a better year defensively vs 2011 defense:
2012 Defense,Total Pass YDS Allowed: 200.19 per game, total yards 3203
2011 Defense, Total Pass YDS Allowed: 230.94 per game, total yards 3694.9
In addition against the Rams our secondary played well enough to win in both games however we did not due to the offense as well as you know who! our Kicker!!! Therefore, Fangio adjusting the game plan to shut down the slot wideout is not really a big concern so far!
My money is on Godfather Fangio to put the hits out early on Cobb and friends, sending a message.
Is it safe to say J. Finley has a bad game? What an idiot!
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1479428-what-the-hell-was-jermichael-finley-thinking-calling-patrick-willis-finesse