This is the first half of my Saturday article on the keys to victory for the 49ers and the Packers.
The 49ers are three-point favorites to beat the Packers tonight. In the NFL, home field advantage is worth three points, so if this game were to be played on a neutral field, odds-makers wouldn’t know which team to favor.
A strong case can be made for both teams. The Packers have an outstanding passing attack and the 49ers have a top-flight defense. One former NFL offensive coordinator thinks the Packers must execute efficiently on offense to win, while the 49ers’ defense must pummel Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers if they are to win.
If you go by the numbers, Rodgers has a stellar 39-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he has an equally impressive 68 percentcompletion percentage and his passer rating of 108 is best in the NFL.
The former coordinator also cited an intangible.
“I think he, subconsciously, still has that chip on his shoulder after being passed over by so many teams on draft day,” the coordinator said.
But Rodgers isn’t Superman. He can’t beat the 49ers by himself, as we learned in Green Bay’s 30-22 Week 1 loss to San Francisco at Lambeau Field.
“To defeat the 49ers, Aaron Rodgers needs the cooperation of his wide receivers, tight ends and running backs,” the coordinator said. “In some of Rodgers’ biggest games in previous years, those guys have had too many drops and ran too many inefficient routes.”
Most important, Rodgers will need better protection than last time, especially from tight ends and running backs laying down blocks before running their routes. That’s because the Packers’ offensive tackles are weak links when stacked up against the 49er defensive ends, especially in nickel situations.
Because the Packers have a so-so offensive line, Rodgers will need to make quick decisions and quick throws.
“To assist in pass protection,” the coordinator said, “Rodgers cannotafford to pass up open receivers in his progression in anticipation of the bigger throw that, in some cases, has not materialized or has resulted in a sack.”
That means Rodgers needs to get the ball out of his hand quickly early in the game so his tackles don’t suffer a total loss of confidence in their ability to pass protect.
The Packers coaching staff, in particular head coach Mike McCarthy, also needs to put Rodgers in a position to succeed with creative play calling, something he did not do last time.
“Mike McCarthy has called a few more play-actions where Rodgers rolls outside the normal framework of the pocket … ” the coordinator said. “This type of play should assist in taking out some of the steam in the Niners’ pass rush so it cannot just rush to a spot and find Rodgers waiting.
“The real key is going to be McCarthy’s play calling because he often calls deeper passes consecutively and needs to mix in the screens, the quick game, pocket movement passes, the intermediate patterns as well as his ‘shot’ plays and deeper patterns.”
To read the full article, click here.
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Be not afraid of greatness: some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them.
It’s game day boys. My bet is CK7 was born great and the 9ers roll to victory tonight. Go 9ers!!!!
amen brother
Here are the keys for the 49ers:
1. Pressure Rodgers: advantage Niners
2. Control the clock with the run game: advantage Niners
3. Be efficient on 3rd down and in the redone: neutral
4. Stop GB’s running game: advantage Niners
5. Be solid on special teams: advantage unknown
Here are the keys for GB:
1. Protect Rodgers: advantage Niners
2. Establish the run: advantage Niners
3. Stop the 49ers run game: advantage Niners
4. Attack the Niner secondary: advantage GB
Final score: 34-20
34-20 Niners in a dominant performance
There were lucky in the first game with that punt return. there were to clear block in the backs with the refs throwing flags. Boobie was basically raped!! But the refs picked up the flag. Smh!! the game wasn’t that close.
I think the key for the 49ers tonight will be to score more points than the Packers.
I disagree 4th and Alex. hah
Defensively the 49ers must also pummel every reception. No YAC. Crush and crumple every runner. Offensively the 49ers need to unleash that big line and impose their will early with Frank and the James gang. Control the clock and keep Dr. Rodgers on the bench.
I haven’t seen a single sports personality or writer predict a 49ers victory tonight. Let’s kick GB’s a$$!!!
Both LC and MM are taking the Niners.
east coast bias, still! but that’s how JH likes it. The funny thing is they keep talking about how GB’s recievers are healthy again, yet 3 of thr 5 haven’t practiced this week…
Wonder if they will put Donald Driver in the game, it will be his last game of his career.
Grant, I looked back at your week 1 matchups. You had 5 parts with 11 matchups. You had 8 advantage packers and only 3 advantage 9ers. You picked the Packers to win and you were wrong on all counts. It’s looking like your heading down the same path of a Packer win….I hope!
This game is simple to me. We won the last game in the trenches and if we are going to win this one, the same must happen. When they are on offense and we can make Rodgers throw before he wants to then we will win no problem.Therefore I think they will game plan alot of quick passes, dinkin and dunkin. We need to tackle those recievers immediately.
When we are on offense, our ability to use our formations and create mismatches against this defense is probably easier than most we’ve played. I think if we dont beat ourselves with penalties and other dumb stuff (insert Ginn vs AZ returning punts here) then we will score at will.
Last game the Pack got a late questionable return for a td and a late garbage time td. If this game goes the way I think it will, It will be more of the same. Should be a butt whoopin’ at like 38 to 13 but again, I think there will be some more late garbage points against a D thats playing the clock game, a 2 point conversion to get it in the area of 38-28 making it look closer than it was. The one that counts! Packers vs 49ers. Advantage 49ers!
See the dumb stuff the Ravens are doing? Punt return and then a botch kick off. That’s the dumb stuff I’m talking about! Nice play by Torrey Smith though as I’m typing!
The key to victory is very simple, control the ball. I like it when its easier said, then done.
Stanford OC Pep Hamilton is an OC candidate for a couple NFL openings. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up with either Roman wherever he ends up, or with the 49ers as Roman’s replacement.
Does Shaw actually calls the plays?
Pics of the new stadium.
http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/1/11/3866310/49ers-new-stadium-tour-pictures-of-the-santa-clara-stadium
Grant, good read.
Here are my thoughts regarding keys to the game today:
1. MC had two of his lowest receiving totals – against the Bears and New Orleans – when CK was starting. Last year MC was limited in the playoffs against both New Orleans and the NYG’s. Will he continue to grow his game during the playoffs?
2. Read option QBs unfortunately get hurt. RGrif was hurt initially against the Ravs on a run. I’ve always been concerned about injuries or turnovers from read option QBs. Their careers are lengthened if they learn to play from the pocket. Will he mainly play from the pocket today or will they have him running? CK has been doing an outstanding job from the pocket in recent games.
3. Playing catch up by more than 2+ scores has not been their modus operandi. The 9ers need to control the ball and time of possession to win the game against GB. Ball control doesn’t mean at some point they won’t hit on 2 big explosive games during the game. CK is the key to the game on offense.
4. Will VD participate in the playoffs this year after his rise to star status last year during both the New Orleans and Giants playoff games? It was unfortunate during the Giants game that the 9ers hit quickly on two scores to VD but didn’t connect again after the Giants made adjustments during halftime. Can the 9er offense include VD into the game plan against GB? Will they create a mismatch with a LB (AJHawk) so VD can continue his high level of play in the playoffs against GB?
5. If the 9ers can’t control the ball and time of possession, will the defense be strong in the 4th quarter? The pass rush will need to return to the sack ratio they attained prior to JS’s injury. Regardless of JSmith and his ability to play at half strength, AldSmith needs to take over this game on defense, especially in the 4th quarter. (Note: I didn’t mention the DBs specifically because the GB offense will score. The pressure that the DL/LB’s put on AR will determine how successful the DBs will be today)
6. FG is a warrior and the heart of the team. He will be ready with his “leave it all on the field” game today. He’ll find more in his tank in the 4th quarter to help the 9ers seal the game with the necessary first downs.
7. How much will GR/JH incorporate AJJ and LMJ into the game plan? Are they ready to play productive roles on such a big stage? They don’t need to take over the game, but did GR/JH incorporate specific plays and matchups to make them productive in their roles today?
8. Will the 9ers be able to respond to the GB no huddle offense? If the 9ers can’t control the clock with sustained drives, will the defense still have enough in the tank to stop the GB offense in the 4th quarter in a close game? Whoever wins time of possession (TOP) wins this game. Multiple turnovers could negate the TOP factor however.
9. The weather will not be an issue this year. It is expected to be cloudy, but not rain. Overall, outstanding football weather.
As I enjoy the game today, I think back to our interactions – good, bad, agree, disagree, laugh, sigh, etc, and remember the excellent times we’ve had here the last four years. What a great group of fans/bloggers!
A big game and great expectations on the way to #6. Good times. Go 9ers!!!
*2 big explosive plays*
Good stuff Hofer. My nerves are already on edge and the game is 7 hours away.
I may have to hit the wine bottle early.
Clem, yup I have my game face on and I’m edgy (in a good way). Yes, wine in the afternoon prior to the game is on the agenda!! Good times.
Good breakdown Hofe. I’m already geeked up and ready for kickoff time! This blog is the best, and characters like you are a big reason why.
“This blog is the best, and characters like you are a big reason why.”
BigP, right back at you bud! See ya in a few…
Sounds good brotha.
Hof,
#1 MC was hurt all of last year and you have to take that into consideration
#2 Pocket passers can get hurt also. CK has shown success in the pocket. I hope he runs more plays.
#3 to # 9 I agree with your opinion and your concerns.
Good one Hofer
Good points Hofe.
Football is a game of ‘if’s’ because the defense is doing their best to thwart the offensive scheme.
Great players make great plays.
I’m excited to see who will step up tonight.
let’s go niners..time to get my game on
To my fellow faithfuls,
Hofer, Crab15, Clemons, 23J, Bay, NinerMD, Grimey, Coffee, Adam, Rocket, 49ergirl, Benny Blanco, Ribico, Neal, FDM, Undercenter, nova4ness, AES, AngusinCanada, Nick, The artist formerly known as Tutomate, Big Niner, Mr. Automatic, Houston 9er, Fansince77, Ed from AZ, Fesync, Brotha Tuna, old coach, Jack Hammer, Fourth&Alex, exgolfer, highpriest333, Claude, Barleyfreak, Chicago49er, Rusty_in_OC, Spaceborn, , Dangle, LSX and MontanaMan16…………………………it is officially time to get out the eye black and start some sh$%! It is playoff time! It is time for this franchise to bring home championship number 6! Who’s got it better than us?!?!?!?
NOOOOOBODY!!!!
http://videos.nymag.com/video/The-Ultimate-Coach-Taylor-Pep-T#c=MJ58Z62MNJK4B5V4&t=The%20Ultimate%20Coach%20Taylor%20Pep%20Talk
It’s not as inspiring, but this gets me jacked up to lay somebody out every time! “You kill the Joe, you make some mo’.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzToNo7A-94
harbaugh kinda looks like Coach Taylor without the accent. And Alex Smith is Saracen and Colin is Vince!
Now we just need someone to be Coach’s wife… Would that be Roman?
Metaphorically of course…
Game face is on, I am ready to get this going, man I”m ready!!
+49
Noooooooobody!
Man it’s going to be a crazy time down here at Barney’s Beanery here in LA where I watch the games. Hey I can take the moaning and groaning from you big babies, at least we’re all passionate 9er lovers, but these LA Packer band wagon fans are obnoxious!
Go get em Niners. Who gives a crap who is the QB, they win and lose as team.
We’ve waited way too long for #6!!!
NO-BODY!!!
Big P,
Up since 5 am this morning, couldn’t sleep. Pacing the floor like a caged lion and ready to pounce!
These late games are killing me. The wait is excruciating (lol).
Let’ Go!!!!!!
AES,
The late games really allow you that extra time to unravel with adrenaline, but like you, I feel these Niners are ready to pounce! Go Niners!
BigP,
You are the man for compiling that list. Right there with you bud and here’s to a Niner victory tonight (beer is up in salute).
Rocket,
The salute sounds good to me! Go Niners!
BigP
Nice post bud. I’ll be watching the game at home, but wish I could be at the ‘Stick talegating right now :) the Niners will send GB packing tonight.
Are you ready for some football?
Big P,
Nice one.
I also liked your write up saying thank you and farewell to Alex Smith.
I can’t wait for kick off!
Let’s win Big P, how about a blow out!!! That would be new.
Hey, your preaching to the choir. I hope they open up a six pack of whoop ass on the cheese.
Denver looking good with that punt return.
BigP, and a few more… Guapo, fesnyc, 55niner, drsgrosse, Sean in Canada, Razoreater, oregoniner, JGWindsor, KezarMike, tkamb, Hightop, niner61, Mood Indigo, MauiDave, txtree, Bray, htwaits, midwestniner, and the greats that ran/run the blog, MM, EB, and now Grant! Go 9ers!!!!!!!
Lets get em’!
Let’s go!!!
Coach Harbaw, Do what it takes to win this game. Colin may hold the future of the franchise in his hands. You may already believe he will be the starting QB next year, and for many more to come. But right now you have a one game season on your hands. If Colin stumbles and fails to produce in the first half, then you must give the team and the fans a chance for a win with Alex Smith. Oh, yeah, and since he already QB’d a win against Green Bay to start the season, you get to enjoy the lion’s share of the blame if Alex does not take some snaps in a loss to the Packers today. Go Niners!!!
We regret to inform you that you have not procured enough votes to be elected president.
-ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
In case no one’s read this — here’s an article from Scott Ostler that sums up all the hyper-tension of this one game.
This is not a pro or anti anyone or anything, merely an article that makes you say — “@^$$&%!###!!!!!
http://www.sfgate.com/49ers/ostler/article/With-Kaepernick-49ers-embrace-unknown-4187803.php
DS is (( B A C K))
What ever happens I’m proud to be a Niner fan!!! We endured a few years of frustration and now we are back! Win or lose we have a great young nucleus and we’ll be in the conversation for years to come!!! But I think we win 38 -0!!!
My bold predicitons for this game:
Colin Kaepernick: 2 TD passing, 1 TD rushing, 292 yards passing, 40 yards rushing, 1 INT.
Frank Gore: 89 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving while making several critical 1st downs. No TD’s, but sets them up for Kaepernick.
LMJ: 75 yards rushing, most coming from a 40+ yard run. 51 yards receiving, again most coming from a single catch and run. 212 return yards which includes a 104 yard return for a TD.
AJ Jenkins: Only two catches, 21 yards, but gets his first NFL TD in a playoff game!
Randy Moss: 4 catches, 48 yards. TD
Crabtree: 8 catches, 90 yards.
VD: 3 catches, 35 yards.
Walker, 2 catches, 22 yards.
Akers: 1 missed FG, but gets redemption making game-winner with no time remaining after Packers tie game 28-28 with 1:08 on the clock.
Final score, 49ers 31, Packers 28.
If the game plays out like that I might need one of you guys to call 911 for me.
MS, have 911 on your speed-dial because I think this one is going down to that last possession for one hell of a classic playoff game between our 49ers and the Packers. :)
Rooting for the Bronco’s, hope Ray Lewis plays his last game.
Im sitting in the Stadium club. Looking for Grant. Guess he doesnt show up here now that hes been on TV.
I’m in the press box.