On Thursday, Steve Young said the 49ers may have missed their best opportunity to win a Super Bowl with Colin Kaepernick. Young believes NFL defenses will adjust to the Pistol formation and the read-option plays which Kaepernick executes so well.
Is there anything to Young’s comments? NFL defenses may or may not adjust to the Pistol – we’ll find out next season – but history seems to support Young in a general sense.
Very few quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl after losing one. There are only four: John Elway (lost in ’86, ’88 and ’89, won in ’97 and ’98), Roger Staubach (lost in ’75, won in ’77), Bob Griese (lost in ’71, won in ’72) and Len Dawson (lost in ’66, won in ’69).
Here’s a list of great quarterbacks who never won a Super Bowl after losing for the first time: Tom Brady (won in ’01, ’03 and ’04, lost in ’07 and ’11), Peyton Manning (won in ’06, lost in ’09), Ben Roethlisberger (won in ’05 and ’08, lost in ’10), Kurt Warner (won in ’99, lost in ’01 and ’08), Brett Favre (won in ’96, lost in ’97), Dan Marino (never won, lost in ’84) and Jim Kelly (never won, lost in ’90-’93).
I have one more thing to point out. The 49ers’ probably will be the preseason favorite to win the next Super Bowl, but the last time a Super Bowl loser came back to win it the next season was the Miami Dolphins – they lost the Cowboys in ’71 and beat the Redskins in ’72.
Since 1980, only one head coach has won a Super Bowl after losing one – Joe Gibbs, the former head coach of the Redskins. He lost in ’83 with Joe Theismann at QB, and won in ’87 with Doug Williams at QB. It took Gibbs four years and a new QB to get back to the Super Bowl and win it.
The last head coach-QB duo to win a Super Bowl after losing one was Tom Landry and Roger Staubach in the ’70s.
Why do you think this trend exists? Is losing the Super Bowl a bigger blow to a franchise than not making the Super Bowl at all?
Why do you think the 49ers can buck this trend?
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Unless something strange happens Kaep has the ability, teammates, and coaches to get to multiple super bowls
I would like to see Ault rather then Roman as OC.
I would worry because:
Teams will know more about CK
Teams will have a rebuilt D and possible good running game
The 49ers need set WRs: Crabtree, 2-5, who is a good 2-5?
The 49ers need a better Dline and Secondary.
Our division is getting better: Seattle, St. Louis both got chances too.
Grudge matches: Atl/NO/GB, and we got to play Luck this year, a QB WE COULD’VE drafted, but oh well.
I think we can pull 9 and 7 to a 11 and 5.
Um, how could we have drafted Luck?
Im glad we vot kap… he will b better than luck who cares if we didnt get luck
I think they can because we havent had 50 super bowls yet. Its still a small sample size. Anything can happen. I didnt expect the Niners to do what they did the last 2 seasons. There is a first time for everything. Why not now?
The title of Grant’s post is not statistically accurate. No matter how many times something doesn’t happen, no inference can be drawn from that fact alone. If it is possible for something to happen, the probably of it happening increases each time it does not happen. The only thing that can be predicted by the data cited is that the series of non-events will continue until it doesn’t.
Not quite G9er. There’s a 50% chance of me flipping ‘heads’ on my quarter. If I flip it and it comes up tails 25 times in a row, there’s still the same 50% chance of it coming up heads the next time.
Time to hit the books Mr. Canada. Do you trust Wikipedia…”Common intuition suggests that if a fair coin is tossed many times, then roughly half of the time it will turn up heads, and the other half it will turn up tails. Furthermore, the more often the coin is tossed, the more likely it should be that the ratio of the number of heads to the number of tails will approach unity.” The Law of Large Numbers attempts to prove this concept. Financial writers have a saying: The longer things stay out of whack, the more likely it is that things will get back in whack. That pretty much sums it up.
A big part of Steve Young’s argument is predicated on Kap needing the pistol offense to be successful. I reject that premise. The 49ers will win the Super Bowl next year if they can establish a consistent pass rush. It is so odd that the 49ers’ offense became their strength by the end of the year. Next year is the year they put it all together.
SY was countering by saying defense WILL catch up and QBs can get hurt (such as RG3) which will result in the HC and coaches pulling back some not wanting their franchise QBs out of action short or long term.
I don’t read that as JM’s point. The point is that Kaep has the ability to be a great pocket QB. I believe that will turn out to be the case. Bigger concerns for me are as noted DL, secondary and a legitimate WR besides Crabs. Gore will be yet another year older, but he still has some fire in his heart and I think he can give it another year of decent play.
I agree barley, CK can and will be a pocket passer! He is much more than a running QB as some people believe so if the defenses try to shut down his running he can still throw the ball! Go NINERS
Hof….. Defensees have already locked in on pistol. but like steve young your assuming this is a pistol qb.. He rab alex smiths offense the 1st couple of weeks and did a great job. harbaugh instilled the pistil to have another dynamic. Young is still upset at the smith switch. he believes pocket passers are better. Waat u guys are both saying is if brady stsnds in the pocket n gets hurt its ok because hes a pocket passer. but if kap gets hurt on the run he deserves it because all qbs tgat scramble get hurt. How many run plays were called for kap? 3-4? His yards on on scrambles. Hes the real deal a qb 1st.In my opinion young is way off. and so is the rest of the world who believes he needs the pistol to succeed
Steel,
You need to excuse Young and Hofer. They didn’t like the switch to Kaepernick and it comes through in their analysis and comments.
Steel, agree but they will study the 9er offense even more especially the Rams, Hawks, and Cards. BTW, Jack is speaking out of both sides of his mouth. While everyone was optimistic, Jack through in the towel during the NFCCG when the 9ers got behind. Yup Jack is the real deal. SMH.
Hofer,
I sure did, and was an idiot to do so. At that point, the defense had shown no ability to slow the Falcons down, and I overreacted.
**threw** LOL
Jack , who won the SB? A pocket passer. Name any running QB that has won the SB. SY’s opinion is valid because he was a running QB that learned how to play from the pocket. More so than any other QB, his opinion is valid because he was a running QB and won the SB as a pocket passer. Will this change? We’ll see. TBD.
Hofer,
The Super Bowl was won by the QB whose team won the turnover battle, and special teams ran a kick back for a TD.
Continuing to refer to Kaepernick as a running QB despite the evidence to the contrary shows the bias that you and Young have regarding Kaepernick, and it goes back to not liking the switch.
Jack,
CK is a running QB that passes equally well. Regarding the SB loss analysis you just spewed, CK didn’t play well in the 1st half. If he played well in the 1st half, the 9ers wouldn’t have been playing catch up.
A running QB is not a bad connotation. I see it as similar to game manager. Both are skills. Some QBs have neither skills. BTW, during the season how many passing TDs did CK have? How many running TDs did CK have? The passing ratio needs to be much higher next season.
*passing TD ratio*
Jack. i agree with you. Hof and alot of others are assuming kap is a running qb. Hes a talented qb that when the play breaks down he takes of and makes this happen. Not chuck the ball out of bounds 15yds like our former qb. Kap plays from the pocket. he just doest go through his 1st read then dump it off to his rb.. Or goes through his 1st 2 reads n throws it out of bounds. In my opinion he doesnt scramble enough. His 3 n 4 second sacks could be avoided but he wants to make plays downfield, not 3yds and a cloud of dust..
He had 415 yds rushing in half a season. Yes he is a running QB.
Hof…… In my opinion if the Defense kept baltimore out of the endzone 3x we wouldnt have had to play catch up… In case u forgot to pay attention, kap was our offense in the 2nd half. We should never have been down that much. Rather u guys c it or not our d killed us. We never played this bad last year. If our d prefored to lst years standard we win in a second half blowout
Steel, I’ve already stated it was a TEAM loss. But perhaps you should watch the first 3-4 series in the 1st half again to see where I’m coming from. Did you record it?
Hof…. Yes i did actually. I went old school i hooked up my VCR. Yes i said it right, VCR. The 1st 3-4 seres was questionabl play calling and 0 accountability to execute the plays. But our D was smoked all game.. So call it a team loss if you want sir. But our D killed us. The supposed strenghth of our team got lit up because we couldnt get to flacco n when we did we couldnt sack him. And dont get me started on the secondary. That display says it all
Steel, re-read your last comment. You are saying it is a TEAM loss other than CK. lol
*last couple of comments*
“….perhaps you should watch the first 3-4 series in the 1st half…”
1st possession – 0-0, Completes a 20 yard throw to Davis, wiped out by penalty. Followed up with run for no gain, incomplete to Walker out of bounds on right sideline, draw to Gore, punt.
2nd possession – 7-0, Drives team downfield for a FG.
3rd possession – 7-3, Drives team downfield and into scoring position, James fumbles.
4th possession – 14-3, Interception. Ravens don’t score due to unsuccessful fake FG.
5th possession – 14-3, Backed up on own 6. Run, inc to Moss, run.
6th possession – 21-3, Drives team downfield for field goal.
21-6 at halftime. 28-6 before first 2nd half possession.
On 2 first half 3 and outs had a big pass negated by penalty and 4 runs to 2 passes.
Hof.. Maybe thats how it sounds but you stating that it was a team loss but underlying we lost because kap is not a pocket qb kinda means we lost because of kap. It might have been a team loss but without kap it would have been a team blowout
Jack, thanks for verifying my point. He didn’t play well. BTW, follow the next series after the INT. The Ravs punted putting the 9ers up against their own goal line thus punting and givng the Ravs very good field position leading to a score. The INT did hurt the 9ers.
Steel, I didn’t state that at all. CK had open receivers when at the 5 yd line with 2 minutes to play and wished to force it to MC three times. Yes it was a TEAM loss.
Hof.. Im sorry sir but correct me if im wrong but didnt you say pocket qbs always win the superbowl. And part of you agreeing that steve young was right to say it, your also saying if kap was a pocket passer we would have won. Dont forget we arent in a position to win that game if it wasnt for kap. Sprint right option on th5 with no room to work is bad play calling even though kap didnt get it done, im sorry i disagree. you can say all you want about team loss but if it wasnt for kap, we are talking about one of the biggest blowouts in super bowl history. Kap didnt have a good 1st half but he had an incredible 2nd half. putting us in position to win. so no i dont blame kap for the loss. maybe im the only one but wat he did was phenominal.
Hofer,
That would be the 5th possession as I noted, and that started deep due to the unsuccessful fake FG.
The Int was a poor throw, but you want to put them having to play catch up on Kaepernick’s first half? How about not getting an illegal formation penalty on the first play. Jumping offsides on a 3rd down stop. Fumbling in the redzone. Being burned for a 50+ yard TD pass.
The fumble directly took potential points off the board, and the illegal formation put them in a hole to start the game.
“…. but if it wasnt for kap, we are talking about one of the biggest blowouts in super bowl history…”
I concur with that statement.
“your also saying if kap was a pocket passer we would have won.”
Steel, look through all of my comments here and point me to the one that says the quote above! I said pick your spots and change the ratio of pass/rush. In other words, play smart. Playing from the pocket doesn’t mean he won’t make a mistake especially in his young career to date. He simply missed the open players the last series on offense. He’ll learn.
Hof.. My bad i wasnt quoting you on that part.. That was my hindsight quote, to you agreeing that steve young saying only pocket passers win superbowls.
Jack, the INT didn’t stop the 9ers current offensive series? If he didn’t throw it, maybe they score a TD or at least 3. The other point was, even though the Ravs didn’t score on their next series after the INT, they put the 9ers in really bad field position which they couldn’t find a way out thus punting from their own endzone and giving the Ravs excellent field position. The Ravs scored on that series.
Hofer,
The Int was on the first or second play of the possession, and I already stated it was a bad play. As for the ensuing Ravens possession, it started around their own 40, but it took Culliver getting burned for the Ravens to score which I also already acknowledged.
Without Kaepernick the game isn’t close in the first place for those plays at the end to matter
Lol. u must be the penis to alex smiths vagina. What a lame
Grant, the last two comments are over the top and need to be cleaned up. DELETED!
To me, the 49ers can only win if they establish better passing, running, and a defense. Flacco made key passes so CK has to do the same thing. You can’t rely on running the ball to win games unless you got a good defense. Our defense is almost up there, but injuries take it down. DUmp Moss/Manningham and pick up 2 Wrs in the draft. Getting Zach Ertz would really help.
They were 5 yards away from a ring. How much better does the passing, running, AND defense need to get?
Not Mario, he can be a productive target. Yes, say goodbye to Moss.
I remember looking into these trends a while back. Quite a while back! It seems to me that there were alot of factors in these trends. Losing coaching staffs and key players seemed like was a huge part of it. Looks like we’ll keep most intact. We just need to reload. Getting KH, KW and MM back will be huge. I’d like to see RM added to the coaching staff. I think he’s done. Add a WR that commands downfield respect and reload our D-line and we’re there!
I don’t think we break the bank at the safety position. DG will cost too much unless he’s willing to take less to stay. Whitner, I don’t care, just reload.
“Why do you think the 49ers can buck this trend?”
Unlike the teams you reference, the 49ers offense brings a balanced attack and that will allow them to stay in games. And if teams want to focus on shutting down the Pistol, that is fine, Kaepernick has provent that he can beat you from the pocket.
The bigger issue is going to be on the defensive side of the ball. The defenses that Fangio has coordinated in the past have shown steady decline with each passing year. They will be fine in the regular season, because the talent level of most clubs can’t keep up, but when they take on the upper echelon teams, like those they faced in the playoffs it will be a tougher struggle.
I think the JH led offense and defense has been uncovered by other teams. They surprised many last year, but this last year and this coming season, they have a target on their backs thus have been studied to every extent possible. They need to become more dynamic and not remain static. The QB change helped but are they really innovative enough? Hmm.
They weren’t innovative enough in the RZ from 2011 to 2012 other than CK’s runs.
Wow.. teams didnt catch up our d got worse because our pass rush dissapeared. we lost 2 games becuse of akers. we should have bn 13-3 maybe 12-4. Boy hof when smith was the qb it was all smith needs is better recievers better o line blah blah blah… Now kap is the man its teams have figured out the off n deff
What about the Steelers?
The 2011 Steelers had Roethlisberger get hurt and the 2012 team had Big Ben get hurt again and were racked with injuries at RB.
I also wonder how many of those teams relied heavily on veterans. One of the great things about the 49ers is a large contingent of quality young players. Only a handful of guys are at an age where you expect to see some decline in play.
And Kaep is only 25 and an ascending player – plenty of time for him to get back to the big show and win it.
2000 NY Giants weren’t coached by Coughlon but by Jim Fassel
Although CK looks very comfortable in the Pistol, I have seen enough play from CK as a pocket QB to firmly believe that he can flourish as a pure passer (just ask the Bears/Patriots).
It is incumbent on the Off-Cord to keep defenses guessing what we do offensively.
The Ravens knew what was coming at them from a defensive standpoint and they just barely beat us.
They had trouble with the Pistol even when they had two weeks to plan for it.
The Pistol will continue to work because we have the horses to make it a force.
Adrian Peterson was successful this season even when the defense prepared heavily for him, because he is dynamic enough player to overcome defensive plans.
I don’t believe that there are any other RB’ who could make this distinction.
The Pistol IMO, works because there are not many players like CK. His strength, size and speed make him a dynamic and dominant player.
I don’t put significance on the patterns and records of QB’ that went to the SB once and lost, or never went back.
My thinking is that patterns and records are made to broken.
I feel sick about losing last Sunday, but my solace is that we are strong, young, and competitive enough to go back to the SB and win.
More than once!
Agreed AES. Kaep’s ability to run the pistol is a feather in his cap, but doesn’t define him as a QB. He can play from any alignment, and showed his quality passing out of the pocket. Teams may learn how to play the pistol read option better, but that will open other things up, and Kaep is still improving.
Exactly Scooter,
CK is a stallion, but he’s far from being a one trick pony.
I’m going to enjoy watching him play for year’s to come.
No defense can zero in on just one area. We are going to be a multi-faceted offense as CK grows more comfortable in his position.
More good times ahead!
I love how the winner we have in our pantry of past QBs never says a damn thing to the media and the guy who so tried to emerge from the winner’s shadow still excels at the aw-shucks gee-willickers mammy-pulled-the-belt-out-again defeatism.
So sick and tired of the earnest cowtowing of the great goateed oaf and the striving, reaching patronizing of this pretender to the crown.
Give me a break!
Some props from an opponent who doens’t think this was the last Super Bowl Kaep will play in.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000137634/article/terrell-suggs-calls-colin-kaepernick-the-truth-at-qb
The Pistol is only one part of the niners offense. Kap did quite well from the pocket, some of his throws are amazing, especially where he threads the safety and the CB, something he did more than once.
I would worry more about adding depth to the defense, specifically DL and OLB where we appeared worn down in the playoffs.
If our defense and special teams played liked last year, we would of won the Super Bowl, except for the Giant game, our defense and special teams need to come back big, if they don’t we are not going anywhere. The Seahawks are a big contender for the Super Bowl , and the Rams and Jeff Fisher has Greg Roman and JH by the nuts and they won’t let go.
The defense was the biggest disappointment in the Super Bowl aside from the final choke. Both the defense and special teams units were lackluster throughout the playoffs which is startling considering how long they had carried the team.
Ever see Debbie Downr on Saturday Night Live?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJ_R-G_i4Xk
why the sumo tag
What I have been wanting for over the last 16 years is a competitive team that can win on any Sunday.
We have a team that has enough skill players to bring thrills and excitment to the 49er Faithful for many year’s to come.
Sure, our goal is to make it and win the SB, but I also put a great deal of importance on the play throughout the season to get us there.
No team is guaranteed to make and win SB’ but that is what makes the ride so intriquing and enjoyable as a fan.
I would worry more about adding depth to the defense, specifically DL and OLB where we appeared worn down in the playoffs.
And secondary. Not sure how it’s going to play out with Goldson. With him and Whitner we have to very strong safeties…against the run. They are (especially Whitner) liabilities in coverage. Goldson has the ability to not be as much a liability, but he gets obsessed with the big hit and coverage sometimes suffers.
I also agree with the poster above saying that trends/records are meant to be broken. Nobody was talking about the SI jinx the week after CK was on it and we defeated ATL. In short, screw SB records. Whether we get back and win is on Harbaalke to upgrade the defensive shortcomings. Our D was overrated when it came down to crunch time. Ironic since last year I think our O held us back in the end and this year it was our D.
My main concern for next season is injuries. 49ers have been relatively lucky the last two seasons – a few key injuries but for the most part the team has stayed about as healthy as can be hoped during the season. Sb winning teams are usually the ones that keep the majority of their stars on the field and have players getting healthy for the run in.
If 49ers get a few injuries next season to key players (touch wood that isn’t the case) it could make getting to the SB again an impossible task. If Alex is gone, an injury to Kaep would really set the offence back. We saw what can happen to the defense if Justin Smith gets hurt. And the WRs after Crabtree are less than inspiring. If he gets hurt, 49ers are in trouble.
The lack of depth on the defensive side of the ball is my biggest worry. I said during last years draft I really wanted a pass rushing OLB in the first 2 rounds, mainly in case Aldon or Brooks got hurt. Can you imagine if Aldon had been seriously injured this season? There goes half the 49ers sack production. DL and safety are also critically short on depth. 49ers can’t keep relying on starters to play such a high % of snaps throughout the season – it wears them down by the end of the season and fatigue exposes them to greater risk of injury.
Scooter,
One may wonder what could have been if we had MM, K.Williams, and K.Hunter in the lineup or a healthy Justin Smith and Aldon Smith for the whole season.
These injuries were substantial in my opinion. K.Hunter and Mario Manningham may have had huge games in the playoffs.
But we’ll never know.
And that just highlights how important having quality depth is. Injuries happen. You can’t rely on your starters being healthy for a full season. 49ers defensive depth is pretty weak in most areas, and that concerns me.
If we were as healthy as say we were during the Bears game, this woulda been easy!
And history said the Niners never lose Super Bowls.
Exactly why I don’t put much weight on historical patterns and records.
The 49ers want to get back to the Super Bowl? Baalke better do better than his 2012 performance. Only one player he added made any real contribution, and he fumbled in the Super Bowl. The 49ers should add Ault to the offensive staff.
Totally agree. Get Chris Ault in here. Kaep would go nuts.
Sorry, but I don’t completely agree with the notion of having Ault.
Ault would make our offense one-dimensional and it may work well with CK, but if something were to happen with CK the team would become very limited.
The jury is still out on that draft. We will hear from Jenkins next year, LMJ of course and Darius Fleming. That draft was for the future, IMO!
The 9ers and CK have already accomplished several firsts and I’m sure we will see more.
As for other teams finding ways to stop the pistol offense, I don’t think that can be done unless the league allows defenses to play with 12 men on the field. In other NFL offenses, the QB either passes or hands the ball off and then does nothing. It’s like playing 11 on 10. In this offense the QB is a threat to run at any time. With the right personnel and execution it is impossible to concentrate on one threat without exposing the other options. The only way to even slow it down is to have superior athletes with superior speed on the defense. In this era of salary cap, that is just not possible to do and still keep stars on offense. I believe the pistol is here to stay, at least for the teams that can find the right QBs to run it and the 49ers already have the best one possible in CK.
Instead of the fans and the team being worried about getting back to the SB and winning it, the rest of the league should be worried about stopping them from it.
I see a team that could possibly have that undefeated season everyone talks about. If not next year, then within the next 3 or 4.
Go 9ers 19-0.
I think a problem with that reasoning is that when you have your QB running around the field, he’s extremely vulnerable. If it’s a running back, well, you bring in “the next man up”. With a QB, it’s a different story. THAT’S why I think the pistol will be used sparingly. Happily, Kaep has an outstanding arm, and once he gets his ‘touch’ down, I think he’ll be right up there with the best in the league.
Why is it that everyone thinks the QB will be hurt if he runs? Chris Ault has taught this QB when to go OB, when to slide and when to go for it. CK is strong and knows how to protect his head. This is not Michael Vic or RGIII. I know the OC will mix up the offense so no one will be able to just key in on the pistol. Colin will be able to do anything asked of him.
You don’t always see the hits coming, Gr8.
I think the 49ers can buck the trend because they put in a qb half of the season and still got robbed for the win. With an offseason under his belt and HOPEFULLY a healthy team next year they will dominate. I smell my own trend happening.
1 NFC title game
2 Superbowl loss
3 the next step is??????
Make no mistake about it. If they are healthy next season nobody is beating this team. The WR position injuries have hurt us the last two seasons. On top of that we were missing a starting lb, and our anchor and his mad dawg were not healthy enough to dominate like they did all year. I know injuries aren’t an excuse, but this isn’t the good Ol days where you could buy quality backups to come in and play as well as starters. We NEED a BIG physical receiver next year.
The draft! The draft! The draft!
C. Poyer or Logan Ryan second round!
Dwayne Bowe!
I like that answer prime
We could use bowe
Jim Harbaugh was overheard asking his caddy, “Vic, what do you need?” Fangio, “A shut down corner”.
I’m not quite sure why the above would get redacted. All because I used the expanded version of ‘B.S.’ when describing these statistics?
Seriously Grant? Or am I missing something here?
I have to delete all cursing.
Got it, okay. Well I didn’t realize that was that strong of a word. Thanks though. Good to know the comment wasn’t taken personally.
It is so difficult to get to the SB, you need to be great and lucky. There are 31 other teams with the same desire as the 9ers, and those teams have smart coaches and great athletes. That is what makes these last two years so hard to swallow, no guarantees that they will be back!
The Superbowl was a horrendous failure of coaching. The 49ers players were better than the Ravens, but they were not ready to play until the power went out. This is all on Jim, who has turned out to be way more of a headcase than imagined. He is more like Rex Ryan than Bill Walsh. Can he change? Yes, if chooses to. That 49er performance was horrible. That’s the sort of performance that eats at you every game you play the rest of your life.
I respectfully and totally disagree with your Rex Ryan and Jim Harbaugh comparisions.
Rex Ryan and Pete Caroll would be a better comparision because they both covet the spotlight and attention.
Harbaugh is the total antithesis of their style. Harbaugh would rather bypass press conferences or always make sure that his players are the center of attention unless he needs to step in to protect them.
I’ll never forget how he brushed off a TV commentator after Stanford won in the Orange Bowl against Virginia Tech, because wanted the attention to be centered on his players.
Starbaugh won the SB in 71…the other 3, (Dawson, Greise and Elway) lost their first and went onto win one at one point in their career. This increases those odds of not winning, only 3 qbs have won a SB after losing their first, much like Kap.
How many QBs period have made it to a SB and never won, great or not?
Fact is that no matter how good this team looks, its extremely hard to Win the SB, let alone make it to one or more.
Is Starbaugh like a cross between Bart Starr and the Harbaugh family?
Not finding your logic or statistics compelling, Mr Cohn. There have been 47 SBs, but only given the number of repeat winners (Montana, Bradshaw, Aikman, Brady, etc) there are only 28 qbs to win a SB. So “only” 4 have won after losing a SB? Even if this statistic had any predictive power of an underlying process, what would that process be? That some, very few, quarterbacks are capable of getting to more than 1 SB, and that the effect of losing doesn’t apparently eliminate their ability to win another one, correct? But in fact, the number who have gone to multiple SBs, but lost one and then won a subsequent SB (4, as you note) is actually higher than the number that have gone to multiple SBs and lost each time (3 – Kelly, Tarkenton, Morton). If you believe that these statistics had any meaning, one would instead conclude that if you are good enough to go to multiple SBs, you’re more likely to eventually win one!
I think Kaep is good enough to take us to the SB again, assuming we fix the apparently gaping hole that opened up on our D since the Pats game. We could also use a starting wideout that makes an effort on the ball (no, not you, Randy). And the stats actually suggest that if you get to another SB, you’ve got a better chance to win.
Tell that to Buffalo.
Of the 28 Super Bowl winning QBs, only three were Super Bowl losers first, and only one of those QBs, Elway, won the Super Bowl in the free agency/parity era. I find that interesting. Sorry you’re nonplussed.
A big reason Elway won those Super Bowls was because of Shanahan and Davis. Without them, I do not believe he ever wins one, let alone two.
I think we need a much bigger sample.
See MLB. This is a young league. Much too young to start developing patterns.
Former Fresno St. head football coach Jim Sweeney passed away last night! He was my brother in laws (my sister’s husband) uncle. I had the pleasure of meeting him on several occasions and talking some football. What an intelligent man. Just wondering if your dad knew him Grant.
R.I.P. Coach Sweeney!
A tribute to Coach Sweeney!
http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?section=news/sports&id=8985153
Hey Grant, the local tarot card lady tells me there will be a significant turnover of personnel on the 49ers in 2013. What say you? As much as 10?
Both Kaep and Coach Jim Harbaw will be approaching the next season with a monkey on their back. While most third year coaches and second year QBs would enjoy a 70 or 80% winning record in 2013/14, these two fellas will be devastated if they do not run the table.
The bar has been set. And no, they will probably not go beyond the first round of the playoffs next year. Prepare yourself for another tantrum from the head coach, and his handpicked boy.
“handpicked boy”
You must be one of those racists who only likes white QBs.
Face it: both Kaep and Coach Harbaw will have a monkey on their back next year. While most second year starting QBs and third year head coaches would be very happy with winning 75 to 80% of the regular season games and perhaps one postseason win, these two fellas will not settle for anything less than running the table.
That self-inflicted pressure is not good for the team as a whole.
Expect it to cost them some winnable games. And maybe even keep the niners out of the playoffs altogether. Just imagine!!!
Someday the Smithers and Tebowners will join together and sing Kumbaya at the Hall of Mediocre Quarterbacks.
Lol
The odds were in our favor to win the Super Bowl and we didn’t, now they say we won’t and we’re supposed to be worried?
Good point.
Odds are made up by gamblers. No intelligence test necessary to become a gambler, professional or otherwise, as far as I know.
Barring any significant injury they can return to high level play. It will absolutly take the addition of more defensive lineman, a rotation will need to be established because of the long season. The NY Giants rotate D linemen and they stay effective to the end, something the 49ers could NOT do. This was overlooked by the staff in many peoples opinion. It works in college but not at the pro level.
Several factors contributing to the difficulty for a team to come back with a repeat appearance in the SB, or even a victory, include but are not limited to the facts that opposing teams in the league are going to make it a mission to study both sides of the ball of the 49ers and to analyze and scrutinize the offense and the defense, including the Pistol package, to have a greater understanding of what the Niners were doing and the obvious fact that the Niners will have a oturgher schedule than in the previous year. Additionally, the Niners are going to lose players through attrition – Free Agency, outright releases, retirement, failed physical, etc., and the chemistyr for the 2013 season will be different. Some clubs mistakenly fail to realize that the following year’s team is a “new” team, and attempts have to be made to create a new chemistry. You cannot look at the 2013 season as an extension of the 2012 season. The other element to consider is that when you go on the road, each of those opponents are going to mark the date on their calendars and say that the road to the play-offs has to go through SF. If you want to consider yourselves as a real SB threat, here is the team to beat. Each week for the Niners will be somebody’s “game of the year.” Tough to get up for that kind of a game for 16 weeks.
You make some good points, Mike. But –serious question– what makes you think the schedule will be tougher next year? Seems the Niners played a LOT of quality teams this year… I’m not quite sure how it could be much tougher next year? I’m sure there’s some kind of formula for creating a schedule based on the previous year’s record, but I’m still not sure you can actually concoct a tougher one than 2012′s.
Home: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams
Road: New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars (London), Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams
That doesn’t look that bad to me!
Hopefully the schedule makers wont put 4 out of 5 road games toward the end this time. I would also like to see the late season matchup with the Seachickens in Frisco this time.
The more I look at the road teams, the more I like it.
Soooo, how does New England do it every year? How is the Ravens there every year? Steelers? Packers? Should I go on? It’s what the good teams do!
As for the Patriots and Steelers or any other AFC team. The AFC is just weak except for the Ravens who will be much weaker next year. This year was a fluke due to two brothers playing each other.
AFC just sucks in general.
I agree the afc has been weak the last couple years but it wasn’t always. The good teams are there consistently in either conference is the point. If you have the Qb that can play at a top level, there won’t be a problem! I think we have that!
As long as Pete Carroll never wins a Super Bowl, I am good, we won five, if that is all we win in my lifetime, I can live with that, ofcourse if we can win at least 3 more that would even be better.
I’m glad you said that Neal. I was starting to worry about my obsessive hatred for Carroll and everything Seahawks.
Does anyone realize Elway wasn’t even in the Super Bowl in ’88?
January 31st 1988, Washington 42 Denver 10. Look it up!
I see what ur saying tho! His SB’s were actually 87, 88, 90, 98 and 99. The season was the previous years to each. He hs some mixed up that way!
I agree a few key improvements on defense and offense and the 49ers will be a formidable force to be reckoned with for years to come
We have a very good run game and Davis as TE
I’m not a fan of Walker. Poor pass catcher and not a true threat like Pitta for example and there will be a few TEs available in the draft that are fast sure handed and bigger
We need to get better at NT. We were really inconsistent there and having a beast up front collapsing the middle will help our pass rush and our back end. There are a few beasts to be had this upcoming draft. Talib would be a good addition in FA. We need to get rid of Rogers, Whitner and replace them and consider moving Goldson to SS his natural position.
The 49ers should go after Wallace in FA to help take the top off of defenses. He’d be a great veteran presence to compliment Crabtree. Let Ginn and Moss go.
Also what I keep reading and hearing is all this talk about Kap and the pistol and how he’s a running QB. First off let’s remember that the pistol is a formation and Kap can run the read option, play action etc out of the formation based on what he sees on defense. Secondly Kap isn’t a running QB not even close. Young and Vick were early in their careers whereas Kap is a QB who can run, REALLY run but he’s as good a pocket passer with among the strongest arms in the league if not the strongest arm. He will get much better with a full offseason of preparation and I believe become more accurate and learn to throw with better touch. We saw him improve in these areas but he’ll get better and he’ll get better at his reads and progressions also along with getting the plays off faster.
I completely disagree with the whitner comment. Yo know how many teams need a player like whitner??? 32. That man is a body crusher and a hell of a reason we force teams to throw. We need faster cbs. Great take on rodgers though. He is a liability. I thoughy he would have a good game against boldin because they are both slow. But he cnt even guard the slow guys. he needs to go.
As for our offense, we can add a peice here or there but you ppl dont realize how good kap is. He siglehandely brought this team back the last 2 games because our d gave up so many points. So many ppl like steve young foolishly says teams are gonna gear up for the pistol. So what. Kap is a qb that can ball. H just happens to be fast as hell. He can laser the ball, he is accurate and incase you guys didnt c it he was reading defenses @ the line of scrimmage. Now he will only get better at it and get better at reading teams. So many on here are on alex smiths pitty wagon you dont realize that kap will now have a full offseason. Harbaugh will also have a full offseason of this magnificant qb. You all think ppl will be ready for the pistol you fail to realize that KAP WILL BE READY FOR EVERYONE.. Im not worried about next year unless we dont improve our secondary.. We need a couple of ballhawks not just hard hitters. But unlike some on here im not worried about kap. He will handle his buisness.
Harbaugh concerns. Is he a nut job? Will he implode on the sidelines aka Woody Hayes at Ohio State or Bobby Knight at Indiana? And will that tightly wound personality of his continue to affect the team, as it increasingly it seems apparent it did in the SB and perhaps Atlanta games?
Thats such BULLDOODY… there is no headcoach in the keauge i would want. This mans fire controls our team. not hinder it. Without harbaugh we donnt have this offense or kap.
Agreed! The players love it and they feed off it. I read the quotes from players that say that!
In this day and age with free agency and the NFL salary cap it is going to be very difficult for any team to reach the super bowl and to win it! In order to get to the promise land teams must have the following:
• Good coaching staff that plays to their rosters strength = check ( our coaching staff will stay intact)
• A good to great QB that can carry the team if needed = check (CK should improve due to his work ethic and after a whole off season with more experience under his belt!)
• Very good OL = check
• Very good defense =? ( I am extremely concern about our defense based on the last 7 games!)
• Good running game = check (I am concern about Frank Gore aging!)
• An offense that can score at least 25 to 30 points per game = check (we will get better)
• Talent on the roster = check
• Hard working and committed team that plays together = check (at least so far)
• No significant injuries =???
• Some luck here and there =???
• Strength of the schedule =???
• Good special team play to give the team a chance =? ( Akers has not been consistent)
My recommendation for the team is to consider the following:
• Add coach Ault to the staff to add more wrinkles to the offense
• Focus on the DL and pass rush this off season; I am not concern about the DBS. We need more pressure on the QBS, so let’s add two or three high motor DL/LB to the roster
• Consider rotating DL to give them a chance to stay fresh especially if we are planning to play in the playoffs!!!
• Add Bowe or a true number one WR to compliment Crabtree
• Add another big body running back that can run through tackles
• Add another big and very physical corner back
• Add a new kicker
Go Niners
Obe statistic we are missing from above is that generally tge QBs that make one SB make at least one more in their careers (dan marino withstanding). Elite QBs get to the sb . Kap is good even without the pistol just ask Chicago.
Those are meaningless statistics.
While Jenkins’ rookie season can be deemed as nothing short of a total failure for both the individual and the team that drafted him, it’s probably premature to call him the next Rashaun Woods (7 rec, 160 yd, 1 TD in his rookie year after the 49ers took him at No. 31 in 2004 … those would end up being his final career numbers). Since optimism is running thin around these parts after Sunday’s game, here are a few things the 49ers and us fans can cling to.
– Jenkins is healthy.
– There aren’t any rumors of off-field issues or chemistry concerns with teammates.
– The 49ers came within a play or two of winning the Super Bowl without him.
– Four receivers who caught fewer than 10 passes in their rookie seasons finished with at least 500 receptions, 6,000 yards and 35 touchdowns in their careers (Haywood Jeffires, Johnnie Morton, Ike Hilliard and Santana Moss).
– Perhaps the best note of all comes courtesy of Matt Barrows:
When Jenkins was drafted in April, general manager Trent Baalke said he loved the receiver’s big, soft hands and the speed with which he got in and out of breaks. One area that needed work, Baalke said, was strength, and Jenkins said he would dedicate himself to the weight room this offseason.
He said he’s going home to Jacksonville, Fla., for a couple of days, then returning to Santa Clara to work with strength coach Mark Uyeyama. He also said he would spend time in Atlanta, where Kaepernick trained before the draft in 2011, and continue working on their chemistry.
“Obviously, they made me a first-round choice for that purpose,” he said. “I’m going to be accountable this offseason and make myself the kind of player that they want me to be.”
Because we really have no choice, we might as well give Jenkins and the 49ers a mulligan on Year One … for now. But if he doesn’t follow through on those promises in the last paragraph, the No. 30 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft will be remembered as one of the worst draft choices in franchise history.
Isreal Ifyani was the worst draft pick in 49ers history, have you forgotten him?
If he sucks next year then he will be a bust and Cohn was right. I still think Cohn will be wrong and he will be a solid contributor next year. Is he a number 1, probably not. Should he have been drafted first round, probably not. Cohn will likely always be at least 50% right on this one…Bust? No. Worthy of 1st round pick? No.
Success for the 49er’s in 2013 lies on the shoulders of Trent Baalke. He needs to pull a Rabbit out of his hat like he did after the 2010 season adding numerous key players. If he can do that this team can leap forward and contend again for a super bowl. If he bombs like he did after last season this team will be in decline.
Agreed. Without a great draft, this team will not outpace Seattle. I also believe this offensive staff and Kaepurnicus would benefit greatly with the addition of Ault.
This article is just silly. Our own 49ers were one fumble away from being in the superbowl three straight times. And that was a team that had peaked.
We are a team still on the rise. It begins with a great coach that isn’t afraid to take chances. Our offensive line is the best in football.
We have one of the most explosive young QB’s in all of football. He single handedly took over the Packers game and put it away in the second half. He also played a large roll in leading the largest comeback in superbowl history. He was one pass away from being Superbowl MVP in only his 11th game.
Once the strength of team team, it was the defense that faltered in the 2012 playoffs. Partly because of lack of skilled players, partly because of injury and fatigue. With 13 picks in the draft and interest in Alex Smith, the 49ers will enter 2013 as the number one favorite to make a repeat trip to the superbowl no question.
Our main goal is to build a team that can beat Seattle who in my opinion is the second superbowl favorite behind our niners
Agreed. Some of these ppl are really trippin out. They have no idea how lucky we ate to have kap. and with a full offseason that stated for him this week in atl… We will only gey better. Our d has been replaced as the strenght of our team. The d will get back in shape i just hope they go for revis
Steel, I didn’t read any comments that said CK was the main issue. The 9ers are set at QB for 10+ years if he remains healthy and continues to grow in the QB position. I think he could be a really good pocket passer and showed that throughout the playoffs. The last 9ers series was disappointing because he had open receivers other than MC. It looks good for the future.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20130207/2012-nfl-draft-redo/?sct=uk_t12_a6#
A Sports Illustrated re-do of the 2012 draft. No wonder the SeaHawks are a team on the rise. Two top 10 picks and one top 15.
The Seahawks struck gold. Baalke needs to strike gold and not strike out this time. I think Ault could contribute valuable advice in the draft as well.
No so sure you can call the 2012 draft a strike-out for Baalke quite yet. Just leaving Jenkins out of the discussion for now, we don’t know what kind of players Looney, Fleming and Johnson will become. Robinson? Not sure he’ll be here after camp this season, but that is TBD. And we already know LMJ is going to be around.
Prior to the 2012 draft many here were saying how the team was already stacked and it was about the future. That is exactly what happened. They picked up a bunch of guys that they felt they could develop for the future.
In 2011 and prior when they needed to get guys who could contribute right away, they nailed it.
You’re correct Mr. Spaceborn. Keep in mind, out of his 2012 picks, only one contributed to that years campaign. I expect Looney to take over for Goodwin. That would add a little more nastiness to the line.
I agree, Jack. That was something well-discussed before the 2012 draft.
Also, Jack, have you done any isolation on Jenkins in games, and if so, what did you see? Not getting open? Not getting targeted? Any sign that he was having problems when plays get changed?
Razor, Looney could scare a lot of defenses just by taking off his helmet, LOL. But I agree that he could be Goodwin’s eventual replacement before Kilgore.
Jack, that wasn’t completely true. If you remember, many of us were begging for the 9ers to draft a big WR or TE in the mode of Gronk (tall rangy) to help with the RZ offense. That ‘s why many weren’t thrilled with the 1st pick.
Hofer,
Guess I am speaking from my own point of reference. While I was hoping that they would draft Fleener, I also stated many times prior to the draft that it was about the future, not 2012.
Gotta give Grant some props here, because after the second day he said James would be a bigger contributor than Jenkins.
Unfortunately no Space. I ran into some technical difficulties with Rewind late in the year, and work was do crazy I didn’t have time to get it fixed.
Grant might be able to answer that for you.
Kendall Reyes, DE. The 49ers swung and missed on Jenkins, at least in 2012. Given the late-season arm injury to Justin Smith, they could have used a versatile defensive lineman like Reyes. 5.5 sacks rookie year. I think the team would have been better served during the 2012 campaign to have drafted a player from the first round that can contribute immediately. I would not recommend using the envelope technique in the 2013 draft.
Razor, Reyes was on my draft board as a first in 2012.
Grant,
A little off of the subject matter here, but I read your dad’s column this morning in the PD, and gotta say that he makes some pretty valid points…for the first time in quite a while I’m in agreement with him.
If you’re referring to Lowells’ lastest 49er piece, I am in complete agreement. That is one of my reasons for beating the drum to bring Mr. Ault onboard. He could be that wise, stabilizing entity that Coach Harbaugh needs.
Some teams do take on the personna of their coach, and it could very well be the 49er’s have done just that….intensity is good, if you don’t have it, you can’t play football. But at the same time, too much intensity can be a detriment to the task at hand….such could be the case with the dismal showing the 9ers had in the 1st half of the playoff games….
If you’re referring to Lowells’ lastest 49er piece, I am in complete agreement. That is one of my reasons for beating the drum to bring Mr. Ault onboard. He could be that wise, stabilizing and calm entity that Coach Harbaugh needs.
sorry for the double
odds and prediction are the stupid parts of sports, time will tell is always right.
Hoferfan67 says:
February 10, 2013 at 10:23 am
“He had 415 yds rushing in half a season. Yes he is a running QB.”
Hofe, there is a huge difference between being a running QB and one who picks his spots and just happens to be an explosive runner.
A running QB would have run in his first start against the Bears if that was his mindset. He did not. He threw the ball unlike a QB that we haven’t here since the days of SY, and J.Garcia.
Hofe, your stat is very deceiving and absolutely incorrect bud.
*seen here*
AES, name another pocket passer that has that many yds rushing? I think if CK decides to take some of those run plays and stay in the pocket, he will be more productive. It’s not negative just a trade off. In other words, throw more and run only as a last resort. Again, I’m concerned about injury and turnovers but mainly injuries. He’s a franchise type QB that is still growing why have him hurt short or long term? Play smart.
Hofe, this is not about other QB’ this about CK’ mindset. And after watching him perform over the last ten weeks I am convinced that his mindset is to run at first blush.
We have an exciting and explosive QB that just happens to gain huge chunks of yardage when he does run because of his extraordinary skill.
mindset is *not*
AES, I said he is still growing. I said he is entrenched for 10+ years. I said he did an outstanding job playing comeback against the Ravs. Not the point. It’s about longevity. RG3 has all those things you said and got hurt on a run against the Ravs that affected his playoff output and productivity. One major surgery now. Play smart.
Yes, you’ve said all that. But you continue to perpetuate the notion that CK is a running QB which he is not.
What he is, is a superior talent that makes thing happen when he runs or passes.
I will agree with Harbaugh’ description; “CK is an explosive player.”
AES, of course he is a running QB by NFL definition. Why do you only see it as a negative? Use it as a strategy by picking your spots. Just the mere fact that he has this skillset will enable he to be even more effective from the pocket. DLs won’t come at him with only one speed. Utilize it and embrace it using it sparingly to keep him healthy.
RGIII has a small frame when compared with CK. Once CK reaches the second level on his runs he will likely be heavier than most defensive players who have to make a tackle.
Being 6’5″ 235 lbs, and running like a fast TE will scare a defensive player much more then having RGIII coming at you.
*him*
Are the number of Super Bowls a large enough statistical sampling to base trends on? Also, football has experienced several dramatic changes since it’s inception. I would not worry about the losing QB trend aspect.
The challenge is bringing the rest of the team up to Gore/Justin standards before their inevitable slow down. Otherwise, the 49ers face the challenge of grooming Gore/Justin replacements while Vernon, Willis, Bowman, Kaep, Crabtree and the rest of the gang are at their peak.
Hoferfan67 says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:31 am
“AES, of course he is a running QB by NFL definition. Why do you only see it as a negative?”
He is not a running QB. He is a QB who is very capable of running.
Bobby Douglass was a running QB. SY (early career) was a running QB. Mike Vick (at one time) was a running QB.
What made them a running QB? *Their run first mindset.
CK does not have a run first mindset.
Yes, the team is astute to use his running talents, but that still doesn’t make him a running QB.
BTW, I have never claimed that CK’ runs are a negative.
He is an exceptional young talent who will sharpen his skills as a runner and a passer with more experience.
Like someone here once said; “All Arrows Up” (lol).
AES, you are seeing only the negative. Yes CK is a running QB, but he is also a good passing QB – dual threat. Over time, he will be mainly a pocket passer. You’ll eventually see my point. I’m out…
Fair enough Hofe.
He is a duel threat. In your opinion, in which part of CK’ duel threat has he been more effective?
AES and others may be seeing “running QB” as a negative because you and others used it as a passive-aggressive swipe against Kaep when Harbaugh benched Alex.
+1 msc
Clem,
So that is now the default argument if someone critiques CK’s play? It seems only you and Bay can’t move past the QB change. I know you have more to offer.
Nah, Clemons is pretty spot on here. When the switch was made you repeatedly put CK’s play down by calling him a 1 read and run running QB. Thus insinuating that he cannot play from the pocket.
You continue to call him a running QB despite plenty of evidence to the contrary. Case in point, the Atlanta game when he brought the team back from 17 down, yet ran the ball only 1 time.
Your use of running QB with CK is nothing more than your gentle way of slighting his play.
Jack, get over it. You’re being antagonistic period. This blog article isn’t about the soon to be former back up. So KNOCK IT OFF with your higher than thou attitude. Move on!!
Sorry Hofer, but my comment has to due with your bias and slighs of the starter,
Jack, thanks for being a mind reader but you are WRONG. Again, you are just adding DRAMA here when it’s not the focus of the commentary. Good try though.
**do** lol
Not a mind reader, but a comment reader. I’m doing nothing more than referring to what you have said about it CK in the past.
Funny how when others call you out on your bias it’s “drama”.
Jack,
And you’d be wrong! This team is dynamic and not static. There are changes. If you wish to live in the past, that is your problem. My comments have nothing to do with the past only the present and future. Try to find all of the analogies you can to justify your drama.
Hof,
I have not been on here alot, but Jack is right, you always did backend insults to CK calling him a running QB, and he is going to get hurt blah blah blah, but I read on here that you are AS second cousin, is there any truth in that, because if that is the case, I understand that you have to stick up fpr your relatives.
“for”
Neal,
I dislike surprising you but CK is a running QB. He ran for over 400 yds in half a season. What other starting QBs have that many yds if you amortize those yds over a 16 game season (800 yds)? He is a dual threat – he is a running QB and he is a good passer. Will he become a pocket passer? TBD. He has huge upside.
The “problem” with CK is that he is so talented he doesn’t fit in the traditional boxes. Almost none of the “running” QB’s of the past could throw from the pocket like CK, see NFCCG, and none of the “pocket” QB’ could run like CK, see GB.
Kaep is on track to be something special. Label him however you want.
Jack, OK agreed. So we should expect what? High expectations of 2, 3 or 4+ SBs? There are no givens. I’m hoping he mainly plays pocket passer and stays healthy to ensure he has a long career. TBD.
Hof,
As long as the O line holds up he has all types of possibilities.
Jack, OK agreed. So we should expect what? High expectations of 2, 3 or 4+ SBs? There are no givens. I’m hoping he mainly plays pocket passer and stays healthy to ensure he has a long career. TBD.
If he continues on his current trajectory, and they keep both sides of the ball stocked like now the sky is the limit.
Regarding the injuries and playing from the pocket to avoid them, I may be wrong but wasn’t Young’s career ended on a hit in the pocket? Wasn’t Brady’s knee tore up on a hit while in the pocket?
CK has played this way his entire career dating back to running the wing T in HS. When he get’s out of the pocket he knows how to maneuver himself in such a way that he doesn’t take big hits. Heck, if his predecessor had known how to slide properly CK never would have been given the opportunity to win the job.
Jack,
eloquently put lol. Lotta truth in that post. Hofer, not trying to be a jerk, but so many call you on what what is so obvious in your writing.
Look, you didn’t want CK drafted in the first place. Didn’t think he’d be the starter till 2014. So much with CK that didn’t play out the way you thought it would. To this day it all still comes through in anything and everything you write about him.
While you are semi warming up to him lets be clear. He no where near gets the free passes you gave the chosen one number eleven. Give CK a quarter of the loyalty you gave Smith and enjoy the ride….
Bay, good try. There is no controversy. CK is the starter and I expect big things from him over the next 8-10 years.
Never been difficult to figure out that hofer has never been happy with his relative being replaced. Its crystal clear he had nothing but backhanded compliments about Kap. He was sounding a bit hurt over the switch. He still isnt sold on Kap. He misses tgat other guy. He is suppose to defend his family members.
Jordo, really? Coming from you of all people. I believe you just described yourself. BTW, you questioned some of CK’s SB play as well. If the 9ers don’t make the SB will you turn on this QB?
Why is everyone pissing all over the place trying to leave their mark? Everyone is trying to prove they’re the alpha dog. You guys make me sick.
Big niner,
Hofe and I have always had sparing sessions throughout the time of this blog.
Not once have either of us resorted to name calling or harsh words.
We can have a debate without the drama and have agreed to disagree on numerous occassions.
BTW, I’m not trying to be the alpha dog, Hofe is “da man!” (lol).
you know it seems like when we’re not arguing about Alex Smith, people are trying to prove that they are right and everyone else is wrong and he said she said crap. I’m just tired of the arguing. I just only like to talk about football and the draft and move Forward.
Big niner,
With all due respect my banter with Hofe had nothing to do with Alex Smith and I would not describe it as arguing either.
Also, compared to some of the name calling and disrespectful insults that take place here, I would describe our convo as pretty mild.
AES, you and I always keep it civil. I enjoy our banter. Always good times.
The only way defenses adjust to the pistol is deciding which option they’re going to try to take away, and which option they’re going to be vulnereable to. In the Super Bowl Baltimore took away the quarterback run to the outside (although I think the 49ers should have tried it), gave up a little on interior runs (which were always effective when there was misdirection), and gave up a lot on pass coverage (where receivers were often wide open). The pistol/option offense adds an additional dimension to the game, so there’s only so much you can do to stop it.
History is a guide to the future – until it isn’t. Don’t tell me that if the play calling had been better at the end – or if the referees hadn’t screwed the pooch – and the 49ers won, that Kap and the 49ers would automatically be more likely to win in the future. That’s silly. This was a game that could have gone either way.
msclemons67 says:
February 10, 2013 at 12:27 pm
“AES and others may be seeing “running QB” as a negative because you and others used it as a passive-aggressive swipe against Kaep when Harbaugh benched Alex.”
MSCL,
I don’t recall ever using a passive/agressive approach in ever describing CK.
I said from day one (when he was drafted) that CK was an extraordinaty talent who could become a force in the NFL with proper time to develop.
I’ve seen CK play since his High School days at Pittman here in the valley only living about ten minutes away from Turlock.
He was a phenominal athlete back then, and he continues to show that he will only become better with experience.
My contention with Hofe stems from his comments leading up to the Bears game that CK was a running QB. Hofe has continued to label CK with the running QB brand and I just happen to believe that Hofe is off target on this.
No biggie, all of us have a right to their opinions.
All good.
Sorry MSCL. Your comment was not directed at me upon reading a little closer.
The odds were in favor of the Niners winning the SB before they lost it. Odds are just that, and even less reliable when based on different players on different teams in different eras.
How well the Niners do next year will be more connected with how they rebuild their roster and what the other teams do. Not that different from any other year.
Grant
The odds are againts UCLA going to the Rose Bowl. So will you stop being a fan? In sports, anything is possible. That’s why we’re fans. The Niners will be back and a strong contendor for years to come. Who could have imagined that a few years ago?
Go Niners.
Nick,
As I said in a earlier post, odds and predictions are stupid, but there is nothing else to discuss on the Niners melt down.
Rumor is Percy Harvin could be had in a trade for a 2nd round pick. Would be a great fit opposite Crabtree and with CK on option.
If he can be aquired at a basement bargain price I’m ok with it.
Hasn’t Harvin had issues with migrain headaches and concussions?
That would be a concern for me. And I can’t recall when and if Harvin has played through an entire season in his career.
I would prefer to go after D.Bowe because of his physical size and strength, as long as we don’t break the bank.
intriguing but what is the salary like?
Harvin is due $2.9 million in 2013.
Worth it!!! He’s a game changer, has good hands and serious speed. I like him.
Worth it!!! He’s a game changer, has good hands and serious speed. I like him.
Prediction: For the next couple of years, whoever wins the NFC West, will be favorites to winning the Super Bowl.
49ers pending free agents
CB Tramaine Brock (RFA) – keep
OT Leonard Davis – keep
S Dashon Goldson – keep
LB Tavares Gooden – minus (draft rookie)
WR Ted Ginn – minus
LB Larry Grant – minus (draft rookie)
OLB Clark Haggans minus (draft rookie)
NT Ricky Jean Francois – keep
WR Randy Moss – keep
NT Isaac Sopoaga – keep
TE Delanie Walker – minus (draft rookie LB and convert him to TE)
I would not keep Moss, sopoaga or brock. None are real contributors and soap is older.
CB Tramaine Brock (RFA) – Minus
OT Leonard Davis – Minus
S Dashon Goldson – Keep
LB Tavares Gooden – Minus
WR Ted Ginn – Minus
LB Larry Grant – Minus
OLB Clark Haggans Minus
NT Ricky Jean Francois – Keep
WR Randy Moss – Minus
NT Isaac Sopoaga – Minus
TE Delanie Walker – Keep
Sounds good to me
I really like DW but too many drops. He doesn’t compliment VD. They need a big rangy talented “hands guy” that can help in the RZ. DW may be too costly to keep.
I like your scenario Hammer. I’m just a little shaky regarding Soap.
He is still a good ‘gap plugger’ against the run.
Sure, he is getting a little long in tooth, but maning the gap only requires that he moves in a small space which he does well.
If Justin Smith has lingering issues with his arm next season and has to sit out for a few games, not having him as well as Soap could become a big problem.
We need to keep either Grant or Gooden, just in case Willis or Bowman are injured.
like this list better….DW adds so much overall contributions to the offense besides his hands i would want to keep him as well….i think he allows easier back and forth flows from the pistol to west coast offenses….and DW has made some big catches
An RG III caliber injury (knee or concussion or … ) is always a possibility with Kolin Kaepernick next year. So look at the depth chart, gentlemen; what happens to the niners in his absence?
We resign Josh Johnson to back up Kap.
Is he worth the headache?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000137949/article/five-potential-landing-spots-for-percy-harvin?campaign=Twitter_atl
I think so. Very versatile and explosive. In fact early this year some around here were saying he was better than Crabtree. It would be a great 1-2 punch.
Dwayne Bowe!
Bowe is going to be too pricey.
Will this fool stop with the Bowe crap. We do pay free agents like that. Too expensive.
what would signing Percy say about AJ Jenkins? Not sure if Baalke and JH are willing to give up so quickly on AJ and admitting a mistake.
I like Harvin, but wonder if he is too similar to Crabtree for them to make that move.
What are your thoughts Grant?
We need another receiver or two anyways, I wouldn’t look at it as a slight towards Jenkins. Harvin would be the jack of all trades the offense needs and he is a good return man. If they could get him for a second and a fourth I think it would be worth it because they would get a third rounder as a compensatory pick if he left after next season. He would definitely help the offense.
Not even close Jack. Crabs has better hands and Harvin has elite football speed with tons of big playability. Hes tough. Has the ability to carry the ball out of the backfield ANDDDDD return punts.
I know its not getting much traction around here but i’m still saying other than a BU QB and a PK i think we will be drafting defense,defense and more defense. I’m also not giving up on the idea of using our first pick in a sign and trade deal for Revis then moving Culliver to safety and regretfully releasing Goldson. Anyways i just see so many more needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Bay, he does not return punts, kick off returner.
We could have had a cheap man’s Harvin in Chris Owusu, but oh well, that ship has sailed.
Jack, what similarities do you see between MC and Percy?
BigP, we’ll need receivers for sure. However, KW and MM will be back and I’m hoping that AJ steps up next year.
“…what similarities do you see between MC and Percy?”
They are both underneath, run after the catch types.
Harvin has a bit more versatility because he can play out of the backfield. Just wondering if he is the stretch the field type compliment that I think they need opposite Crabtree.
Hey 23J,
At first blush my initial reaction was to SMH at this suggestion. But if the 49ers are going use the pistol for the better part of their offense perhaps a player like Josh Johnson could be a good backup.
He will definitely come with a cheap price-tag and his ability to run and pass my be a better fit for him.
My only pause is what happens to Scott Tolzien?
Does he now fit the direction that the offense is going (being more of a traditional pocket QB), or will he be a surprise cut come TC?
Who backs up CK next season may become one of the more interesting battles come TC.
AES,
Josh makes the most sense to me. He ceetainly is more capable of running this offense than Tolzein. Its going to be interestin g to see what they do for a backup QB. Josh got signex by Cleveland late last year. Hope they cut him if they have not already.
I don’t think they go to that well again.
23Jordan says:
February 11, 2013 at 7:11 am
“Josh makes the most sense to me. He ceetainly is more capable of running this offense than Tolzein.”
Is that why they chose Tolzien over Johnson? It’s good to see that some things around here never change.
Ouch.
Man, it never gets old watching 23welcher get b!tchsmacked for pretending like he knows football.
Matter of opinion. I think JJ absolutely makes sense to back up CK….
It is a matter of opinion Bay, and Harbaugh’s opinion was that Tolzien is better than Johnson.
Harbaughs offense has also evolved since he chose Tolzien. Tolzien is a quick decision maker with an accurate weak arm.
My guess is he wont be #2 next season.
I agree with your last sentence. It’s going to be Alex Smith.
23 throwing out his man crush on a career backup who no one wanted because he cannot read defenses. Athletic ability in the NFL gets you an entry level contract and nothing more. Once teams realize you dont have a brain and cannot read a defense, you get to hold clipboard for a couple years and then you are gone.
Jack i think there will be enough suitors for smith as a starting QB that he will definetly leave. I certainly do’nt think he will sign for less like the 9ers would want. How bout a minimum non guarenteed offer to vince Young. Harbaugh is the QB whisperer
Jack, so you think AS will be the “good soldier” once again and renegotiate his contract to be a back-up?
Coach,
Smith is under contract, it’s not his decision.
No Space, I think it would be under his current agreement.
Jack,
You’ve gone madd!!!!
Jack as much as you guys love to talk about Alex Smith, no way the organization keeps him. First its too much money and secondly, they feel obligated to give Alex a chance to go somewhere else and have a chance to compete for a starters job.
As much as it makes sense from a football standpoint, the story and legacy of Smith as a 49er will be determined in doing what is best for the players in this circumstances. its not matter of oweing it to him, its what is best for everyone here, including the fans who will finally be able to not talk it anymore, unless you are Bayareafanatic or 23 welcher.
Jack i think A.S. would make an excellent BU and with a QB that runs as muck as Kap i think we will need one. I just do’nt see the 9ers paying him that much to BU. Unless they have no plans to resign Goldson and Sopoaga
Jack, that would be a 9.75 million cap hit if they kept AS under the same contract. 7.5 million salary plus a 2.25 million bonus. Don’t know how you can keep Goldson and other players if they do that.
Thank you Bay.
FDM,
The only obligation they have is to dress the 46 players that give them the best chance to win, and Alex Smith is the best back up option in the league.
Not at 7 million and not with a player who wants to move on and play and compete for a starters job. The guy is still only 27 yearsold. Pretty sure he is capable of playing in this league a little while longer and not as a backup.
As much as you guys will never admit it, he still is a good QB.
Prime, your last sentence is why I think they bring him back.
Sometimes it just comes down to the business part of the NFL which doesn’t always coincide with team needs. When you have a salary cap it’s like having a $50 gift card from Home Depot. You can get to the check-out with a cart full of stuff you need for a project only to find that the card only covers half of it and have to start removing items.
well said prime
I’m tired of listening to Young. Young also said moving to Kaep was a bad decision. Had we won, he would have said that there will be many more in Kaep’s future. Bunch of BS. Kaep is not a run first QB and Niner fans who have watched him all year know that. They will not use the pistol full time next year, but will throw it in when appropriate. They will be much more conventional, as will the Seahawks with Wilson. I also think RGIII is the least likely of the three to improve next year. I see him taking a step back. Bottom line, Kaep is going to be the best QB in the NFL come two years from now. Bank on it. People don’t want to hear it because a) it scares the hell out of them that someone that dangerous is going to be that good b) former Niner QB’s (except Montana) may have their legacy knocked down a peg or two by the end of Kaep’s career.
You must not have actually ‘listened’ to Young then. So many posters are off base to what SY said, you’re no the only one. He only said it was a bad decision at the time of the switch, he has said at least 10 times that I have heard “Boy was I wrong”. He also very nicely explained that this year “may have been the best chance’ because there is no book on Kap yet and it incredibly difficult to get back to the SB. Many years the ‘best’ teams don’t win because of injuries, bad calls, running into hot teams, and just playing your ‘C’ game on the big stage instead of your ‘A’ game. He also went on to say, the “sky is the limit’ for Kap, “He amazes me’ and the Niners have a great chance for a 4-5 year run of dominance. I think it’s refreshing for him to say that he he’s jealous of the offense that Kap gets to run as a first year starter. Most people wouldn’t say that. Again, he said he’s thinks it’s a great bridge for a young QB to get his bearings and turn into a pocket passer as he ages. IMO, everything he says about Kap is spot on, truthful and with no pretense.
I think lot’s of people still don’t like Young because he ‘forced’ out their hero.
Bray, well stated.
“I think lot’s of people still don’t like Young because he ‘forced’ out their hero.”
No, that was Leonard Marshall.
I agree with your post
By and large, the teams who lose in the Super Bowl and are out of the playoffs the following year are almost always verteran teams with players at key positions nearing the end of their careers. The Niners do not fit that mold.
As long as CK does not get hurt, I see a 10 year window where the Niners should be in the playoff mix on a regular basis, and should win three or four titles. See Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in New England.
Can’t wait for September.
Here is Part I of Ben Muth’s report on/analysis of the 49ers’ offensive line play in the Super Bowl. As usual, it’s good stuff, but it does make the loss even more frustrating.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/word-muth/2013/word-muth-super-bowl-review
Hammer,
When Tolzien beat out J.Johnson we were running an offense more suited to accomodate AS’ skill-level.
The offense has taken on a different look with CK at the helm. Whether we re-sign J.Johnson or not, I do have some concerns on whether Tolzien is capable of running this offense if something were to happen to CK.
I just don’t see Tolzien’ skills being suited for the pistol, while JJ may actually be a better fit.
????
Josh Johnson is career back up and a lousy one at that. That ship has sailed. Better to draft a guy we can develop and keep Tolzien as the back up or bring in a vet that can help mentor CK further. he needs to become better at managing the game.
Not all three QB’s have to have the same skill set, just an understanding and capability to run the offense.
The team doesnt need to worry cause that would put added pressure on..This team should feel confident if anything..cause they all played in big games two yrs straight..and lost unfortunately…BUT theyre a better team goin forward because of it..
We got young talent..need to get bigger and stronger on that dline.. A shutdown corner..a wr option besides crab..i mean were literally 3 starters and three backups away from bein unstoppabble..As God is my witness.