This is my first attempt to mock the first round of the upcoming draft. I have the 49ers trading up once, and the Raiders trading down three times.
Enjoy.
- Chiefs – OT Luke Joeckel. Kansas City drafts a left tackle to protect Alex Smith’s blindside.
- Jaguars – CB Dee Milliner. Both of Jacksonville’s starting cornerbacks are free agents, so the Jags draft Milliner.
- TRADE: Bills – QB Geno Smith. Buffalo trades the eighth pick, their second-round pick, their sixth-round pick and a second rounder next year to the Raiders. With the third pick, the Bills draft their franchise quarterback, they hope.
- Eagles – OG Chance Warmack. Philadelphia had an awful offensive line last season, so they draft Warmack, who will improve the Eagles’ running game and pass protection.
- Lions – OT Eric Fisher. Detroit’s right tackle, Gosder Cherilus, is a free agent. Their left tackle, Jeff Backus, is 35 years old. The Lions need a tackle.
- Browns – OLB/DE Dion Jordan. Cleveland is switching to a 3-4 defense and they need an edge rusher.
- Cardinals – OT Lane Johnson. Arizona needs a quarterback, but they can’t draft one in the first round because they can’t protect him. The Cardinals had the worst offensive line in the league last year, so they must draft a left tackle here.
- TRADE: Chargers – OG Jonathan Cooper. The Chargers, who need about five offensive linemen, trade their fourth and fifth-round pick to the Raiders to jump three spots and draft the last elite O-line prospect available, Cooper, before the Titans can get him at No.10.
- Jets – WR Cordarrelle Patterson. The Jets need receivers and Patterson has more potential than any receiver in the draft. The Jets like potential.
- Titans – DT Sharrif Floyd. Tennessee needs an O-lineman, but there are none available who are worth the No.10 pick. So the Titans draft Floyd, a stud defensive tackle, because they could use one and he’s the best player available.
- TRADE: 49ers – CB Xavier Rhodes. The Raiders trade down for the third time because they need help everywhere. The 49ers give Oakland the 31st pick, the 34th pick and the 94th pick for the 11th pick and the 138th pick. With the 11th pick the 49ers draft Rhodes, who is similar to Nnamdi Asomugha, only stronger, faster and more explosive.
- Dolphins – CB Desmond Trufant. I’m presuming Miami signs a No.1 wide receiver, like Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings, and drafts the best cornerback available.
- Buccaneers – DE Ezekiel Ansah. Tampa Bay misses out on the top-three quarterbacks, so they take the top pass rusher available.
- Panthers – DT Sheldon Richardson. Carolina needs a defensive tackle, and Richardson is a top-10 talent.
- Saints – OLB/DE Barkevious Mingo. The Saints are switching to a 3-4 defense next season, so they take the No.2 edge rusher in the draft.
- Rams – S Kenny Vaccaro. The Rams need a free safety.
- Steelers – DT Jesse Williams. The Steelers do not have an impact defensive lineman. They draft one here. Williams is a run-stuffing nose tackle who can also play defensive tackle in a four-man front, like Vince Wilfork.
- Cowboys – OT D.J. Fluker. Dallas needs a right tackle.
- Giants – DT Datone Jones. The Giants like defensive linemen who can rush quarterback from the inside and the outside. Jones can do that.
- Bears – TE Tyler Eifert. The Bears need a tight end.
- Bengals – DE Bjoern Werner. With Werner, Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson, the Bengals have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL.
- Rams – WR Keenan Allen. The Rams need a No.1 receiver who can play on the outside. Allen is perfect. He’s like Michael Crabtree, but bigger and faster.
- Vikings – WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Vikings need a No.1 outside receiver, too, so they draft the best one available. Hopkins caught 18 TDs last season for Clemson. Some scouts compare him to a mini-Larry Fitzgerald.
- Colts – OLB/DE Jarvis Jones. Indianapolis cut Dwight Freeney, so they need a replacement pass rusher.
- Seahawks – DT Kawann Short. Seattle takes the best defensive tackle available.
- Packers – TE Zach Ertz. Green Bay needs a running back, but there is no one worth drafting at No.26. The Pack will cut their overpriced tight end, Jermichael Finely, and so they’ll replace him with Ertz. Ertz can line up at tight end, in the back field, in the slot and at wide receiver. He will become a key weapon for Aaron Rodgers.
- Texans – WR Tavon Austin. The Texans need a slot receiver and they need speed on offense.
- Broncos – CB Jonathan Banks. Champ Bailey will be 35 years old next season, so the Broncos draft the best corner available.
- Patriots – WR Justin Hunter. The Patriots also need a cornerback, but they missed out on Trufant and Banks, so they draft a tall, fast wide receiver here and wait until the second round to draft a corner.
- Falcons – OLB/DE Alex Okafor. The Falcons cut defensive end John Abraham, and now they have no pass rushers. So they draft Okafor, who has experience playing outside linebacker, defensive end and defensive tackle.
- Raiders – OLB/DE Damontre Moore. Oakland draft the best player available. Moore was considered a top-five pick a month ago, but performed poorly at the Combine. The Raiders draft again at picks No.34 and No.41.
- Ravens – ILB Kevin Minter. To replace Ray Lewis.
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So why no mention of Alec Ogletree as ILB for teams needing one? Minter is a notch below him.
Trade makes sense for the Niners. Hell, it makes a lot of sense for the Raiduhs too! They need all the draft picks they can get, but will their front office be smart enough????
Grant, I don’t think the Bills will need to trade up to get Geno Smith. I think he’ll be there at #8, if they are looking at a QB. And I wouldn’t doubt that the Raiders grab Floyd at their original slot and don’t trade back. I really like Rhodes a lot, too, it’s just a hard call trying to figure what Baalke will do. He may stand pat with the #31 and #34 and then start getting on the phones and be a big player in the mid rounds where there will still be a lot of talent to be had.
The Bills are desperate for a QB. I’m guessing they’ll want to join the pistol craze and they’ll want Geno to be their guy because he’s as fast as Russell Wilson. They’ll fear the Raiders, Eagles, Browns or Cardinals taking Geno first, so Buffalo will trade up. They’ll get blasted for the trade. They’re a bad organization.
Well, if they wait and whiff at #8, maybe they go Manuel in the 2nd?
Are Smith or Manuel read-option QBs in the NFL??? I know they may look the part…but…………..
Geno is fast but he isn’t a scrambler. He’s definitely not a read option type QB. He’s more like an Alex Smith type guy – someone who can run if necessary but not a guy that will keep an extra defender in the box.
I’m not a big Geno fan, and I agree with the Alex Smith comparison, even though Geno is faster. I’m saying the Bills will talk themselves into Geno, and trade up for him.
The Bills have cleaned house upstairs, and have a good young coach in Doug Marrone. They’ve been doormats for about 14 years, but that’s about to change.
I suspect they won’t reach for Geno, as he’s just not that good, and the Bills have traded up to get QB’s because of “need” before, and it’s blown up in their faces (see Losman, J.P.)
They’d be better off sticking with Fitzpatrick this year, or bringing in some caretaker free agent than wasting a high draft pick on a QB who just isn’t there.
Or…..Syracuse’s QB who already knows Marrone’s system…
Grant,
You clearly have no logic in your trades. You really think that Geno Smith is worth the third overall pick. You and your usual drama. Mark my words a quaterback won’t be drafted in the top ten. No point in speculating when we aren’t a gm.
Grant, i really think Desmond Trufant is a better pick for the 49ers and they can get him around 21 or so. I do agree though that a CB or Safety is the way to go but would really like them to get Trufant is the proven guy that can make it to the next level and excel in the Pro’s. Would like to have them get a safety in free agency as well as a DE and DT in the draft and free agency as well.
Lions drafted a Tackle (Reilly Reiff) in the first round last year. I think they really want Milliner but go if it plays out like you think in the first 4 picks they’ll go Dion Jordan or Jarvis Jones.
Reiff isn’t special, and Backus is ancient. Jones has spinal stenosis. Jordan is a better fit for a 3-4.
Reiff played well enough at the end of the year to make me think they’ll prioritize defense. He’s a starter in the league. It depends on Jones’ medicals, but he’s been cleared by multiple doctors. But the need is there, the Lions are losing both their DEs this year, and that is a more pressing need for them than tackle IMO.
I think Ansah is a possibility, but he’s raw. Lots of people consider Fisher the top player in the draft. And an offensive tackle is more valuable than a defensive end.
Detroit needs outside rusher and I’ve read that Schwartz loves Ansah and doesn’t think he’s as raw as his reputation, but he could go Miliner if he’s still there or OT. I think KC might draft Fisher, but there are two other good OTs after him.
Grant I’m not sure you’re factoring how deep the Tackle free agency market is as well this year.
Tackles are expensive in free agency. It’s always nice to have a stud tackle like Fisher on a rookie deal.
Yeah, Coffee. I just heard Jake Long is a UFA. The Chargers and RayDuhs should pursue him.
Grant Cohn says:
March 4, 2013 at 1:45 pm
Tackles are expensive in free agency. It’s always nice to have a stud tackle like Fisher on a rookie deal.
—————
Normally yes but as mentioned the market is rather flush with them this year which will drive down the cost of guys that would normally fetch higher contracts. Since the Lions drafted a tackle high last year I’m guessing they’ll take advantage of the buyers market in FA this year and use their pick on a different spot. Plus, ask the Rams if high drafted tackles are always a sure thing.
Grant,
You seem to give up on young players (A.J. Jenkins) How has Fleener worked out. They take time to develop. Rieff was just a top pick. The lions are not going to waist another high pick on a ot. Look at their needs.
Reiff was a top pick but he’s a right tackle. Fisher is the left tackle and old, expensive Backus is expendable. Protecting your QB is always good value.
@Niners
Fleener: 26 receptions, 281 yds, 2 TDs, 14 1st downs. Comparable to Delanie Walker who was an above average 2nd tight end.
AJ Jenkins: 0, 0, 0, 0
Now admittedly, Jenkins was stuck on the depth chart behind the immortal Ted Ginn Jr. and Chad Hall but zeroes across the board is bad. Jenkins tied me for production this year.
I’m fairly certain that Rae Carruth did more receiving than Jenkins did in 2012.
msclemons, good one, made me laugh out loud quite a bit. course, it was a sad laughter…
@msc
Jenkins is a project for the future. He was drafted because he is fast and he can get down the field. He fits wit Kaep
With Slay,Poyer and Ryan available in the next round or two I’d have a hard time pulling that trigger(moving up in the first is costly)-but he is damn fine prospect. Hunter in the first,interesting.
Last I heard the niners were talking to a lot of free agent CBs, so not sure we’re going to give up our two best picks for a position we can address in free agency. There are an absence of good D-linemen on the market, but a few decent CBs. Meanwhile I can’t see us paying top dollar for a WR opposite Crabtree; therefore I see the 49ers trading up a few spots to get a good DE/NT or WR or both. Or a safety if Dashon leaves. I think we have too many needs to give away both 31 and 34 to draft a corner.
Rhodes is a special talent, and he’d be a on a cheap rookie contract for three seasons.
Do you think Rhodes can cover the slot against a welker/amendola/cruz type of player? Because that seems like our biggest weakness. Why not go with a quicker corner that wouldn’t require a trade-up?
No, he’s not a slot corner, but he can play on the right or the left side. He could match up against Julio Jones or Roddy White.
The 49ers could draft a slot corner like Tyrann Mathieu or Steve Williams in the third or fourth round.
Rhodes wouldn’t be covering the slot – he’d be on the perimeter. Grant, I’m assuming this mock is also based on Culliver moving to FS as per your previous mock offseason? That would leave either Rogers in the slot if he’s retained, a CB signed in FA, or another CB that is drafted in later rounds.
Culliver at free safety, Rogers traded or cut, and a mid-round pick covering the slot.
0.00345% chance that Culliver moves to free safety.
You seem to like guys who work out well. Baalke will draft a player that has a huge upside, but yet the have shown they can produce. The reason you like Coby Fleener was because he ran a 4.4 forty not because you watched tape
One of the reasons I like Elam is because he can cover slot receivers and he could be drafted late 1st or early 2nd. Plus, he could become Whitner’s eventual replacement at SS.
But Elam, like Whitner, is too short to cover tight ends.
Agree – Elam actually reminds me of Whitner. He’ll have the same issues as Whitner covering the big TEs.
According to this evaluation, it may not be as bad as you think.
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2013/02/matt-elam-scouting-report.html
That’s actually one of the reports I like to read – they do good scouting. And it just re-enforces my opinion. He’s short, with short arms. Like Whitner, he has good speed and strength, but not the height and probably not the agility to go 1-on-1 with a speedy slot WR.
I thought size didn’t matter if you have the skill set?
If you like Tyrann Mathieu covering slot receivers which can sometimes be big TE’s like Hernandez or WR’s like Calvin Johnson, I don’t see why you think Elam couldn’t?
Right you are spaceborn – if you’ve got the skills the size is not important. I don’t think Elam has the coverage skills to be 1-on-1 with a TE or to match up with a shifty slot WR. Or I should say, I don’t think he’d fare any better than Whitner.
@Space i would even go further with your size vs. skill argument. It scares me when the first description you hear about a DB is his size and strength. So many DB’s described as strong with good size just end up being big stiffs with tight hips. Give me a 5’10″ cb who can cover over about 75% of the CB’s who measure 6’1″ or bigger.
Mike Rumph comes to mind
Scooter, guess that is just a difference of opinion which is pretty common around these parts. It’s all good as long as it is discussing 49er football.
old coach,
As you know it’s a copycat league and everyone wants to find their Richard Sherman. Problem is they are few and far between. Rhodes could be a comparable player, but that’s some pretty good draft picks you are giving up to find out.
I would rather have Cyprien. He’s more versatile than Elam.
Yeah for sure spaceborn – its good to have different opinions on here. I should say I actually do like Elam, I just think his strength is what he provides in run support, not coverage. I don’t think he’s a liability in coverage, but I don’t think he should be left 1-on-1 with a big, athletic TE or a shifty slot WR. If he gets teamed with a true centerfielder I think he’ll be very good.
Honestly, there are a lot of players I like in this draft. But like I said before, I’m still watching the cap casualties that become available and the other FA’s that aren’t re-signed by their old teams before my next mock. You can already see how things could change if the 49ers got Jenkins. Or if they were to sign a FA CB/S. FA signings can totally change a mock.
I would prefer Cyprien from what i’ve read from him.
I had Cyprien on my first mock, but in the 2nd round. Now his draft stock is moving up to probably the 1st round. I would really rather have Vaccaro than Elam or Cyprien if we’re talking safeties. He has held steady on most boards as a mid-first rounder and would require trading up, but not as far as the 11th as Grant suggested to get Rhodes. I doubt it happens, though.
Please guys. I do not want to see Culliver as a starter anywhere. He looked like complete crap in the Super Bowl and is a punk of a person. At best he is a nickle back-up but not a somebody who should be playing as much as he has. I really, really hope they get Desmond Trufant with their first pick, this would be one of the best picks for anybody then get a DT/DE with the second pick.
He has played fairly well despite being a third round project. His Super Bowl showing is not a sign of a bad CB.
Don’t cut a guy for one bad game. In only his 2nd season (and 3rd season overall at CB including college) he showed there is a lot to work with there. He gave up some long passes in the back end of the season, and that is something for the coaching staff to fix.
As for being a punk – he made a very ill-advised comment in the lead up to the Super Bowl. He’s young and made a stupid mistake. I’m not sure what else he has done to earn the ‘punk’ label.
With Trufant, I just get concerned that while he showed well at the Senior Bowl and tested well athletically at the combine, he didn’t play as well during the season.
I agree Scooter. I think Culliver just had a bad game and made a stupid mistake. I too also have concerns about drafting Trufant. His play and what he did at the Combine don’t really mesh and that is a big red flag that makes me think he is more of a second rounder at best.
Culliver has been a pretty good CB. He is young and popped off at the Super Bowl when he was baited into a question. He is already working to move on from that mistake. There is nothing to suggest that he is a punk of a person, he just made a stupid mistake. It won’t be the first or last time a young man does that. Time to move on.
Lets see what Cully does this next year. He didn’t end the year very well. He got eaten up in Atlanta. Got burned for a deep ball by Green Bay and was totally torched in the SuperBowl.
Champions bounce back. With a better pass rush maybe he’ll be ok.
Curious as to why you think that they would pick Rhodes over Sheldon Richardson after that trade up. I think the Niners value the front seven more than the secondary and that they will address the secondary in the later rounds. Plus Rhodes isn’t the quick change of direction CB they need to keep up with slot receivers, he doesn’t even solve their biggest problem in the secondary. How about a Jordan Poyer in rd 2 or 3?
I don’t think Sheldon Richardson is a five-tech who is stout against the run. I think he’s a three-tech – not an ideal fit for the Niners. Rhodes could become one of the best press man corners in the league very quickly.
He nearly led his team in tackles as a D-lineman, and he’s got a great motor. He doesn’t seem weak at the point of attack to me either. So even though he hasn’t done it I think he can learn the 5 technique, and in any case he’d be playing 3 technique in nickel packages. The Niners play nickel more than half the time anyway.
I think Rhodes could be good, but I think the D-line and pass rush is more important. That’s where I’d put my resources.
Rhodes could play 1,000 snaps as a rookie. Richardson probably would only play about 200.
Here is NFL.com’s profile of Richardson: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/profiles/sheldon-richardson?id=2540142
“A better player in pursuit than he is holding the point against the run, where he can struggle to anchor. Drag down lunging tackler that misses ball carriers in space.
NFL COMPARISON Cullen Jenkins”
I think Rhodes is a slightly better prospect, who also would have a much bigger impact Year 1. A true shutdown corner is a great asset for a defense.
Grant, seems like a few teams running the 3-4 talked to Richardson about playing the 5-tech and teams running the 4-3 were talking 3-tech with him. And the 49ers talked with him so maybe they think he can do it.
Here’s a link:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/2/26/4031326/nfl-draft-2013-sheldon-richardson
Grant,
Have you noticed that the 49ers develop their draftpicks they don’t just put them in. No draft pick has started from day 1
Patrick Willis.
I lost my mojo for the draft this year, I am still pissed about the SB loss!!!!!
I need a new season ASAP
Shake it off, dude! It’s March, no more time for sulking, LOL!
I feel you man. To me that was a devasting loss and a game we gave away in many respects. Pissed is an understatement!
I came across this article from MM the other day addressing the 49er front seven. In this, according to Baalke, is that not utilizing a rotation on the front seven is more a philosophy than because of personnel (lack of talent on the depth chart). If this is really true, maybe they won’t draft early for the DL. Personally, I’m not buying it.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/depth-lacking-49ers-defensive-line
Yeah we won’t truly know what the Harbaalke is thinking until after the draft. What they do once the free agency period starts will give us more clues.
Williams to the Steelers and Jones to the Giants – I like your thinking. Williams would fit the Steelers nicely with Hampton done, and playing the comparison game once more, Jones reminds me some of Justin Tuck (admittedly, Jones himself gave me that idea – he compares himself to Tuck). With Umenyiora a FA they’ll likely be in the market for another DE that can move inside on passing downs.
I’m not a fan of giving up that many premium picks for one player in this draft. I like Rhodes, he’s good, and teams will covet a CB with his size, athleticism and speed combo, but the 49ers have some depth issues they need to sort out to make sure they have quality starters in place in 2014 and beyond.
Did you have to give Kawann Short to the Seahawks?
Scooter, a lot of mocks have Short going to the Seahawks, but I have a feeling they go WR to give Russell some better options to throw to.
Grant,
This seems like giving up too much for Rhodes.
The 31st and 34th picks could garner a couple of significant players for us.
I’m leary on giving up what seems like a two (significant players) for only one.
Rhodes would have to be the next D.Revis / Dion Sanders in my opinion to give up the 31st and 34th.
Sorry, not feelin’ you on this one.
I’m saying Rhodes is the next Asomugha. In his prime, Nnamdi was the best. Rhodes and Asomugha have the same playing style, but Rhodes is a harder hitter and a better tackler. Nnamdi is an inch taller, and he ran a 4.45. Rhodes ran a 4.41 and he has a 40.5 inch vertical jump.
+1
I hate the trade, and not just because I think Trufant is a better prospect. Rhodes was a fringe 1st rounder prior to the combine and I don’t think he had a good enough combine for him to be worth taking at 11, he had a good 40 for his size but he didn’t run the 3 cone or 20 yd shuttle and probably for a reason. Plus, we could easily get a combination Damontre Moore/Jamar Taylor or Margus Hunt/ Jamar Taylor which would bolster our defense way more than Rhodes would as it could improve the pass rush + secondary with two great talents.
I agree with the concept but that combo of players would be less than ideal in my opinion. Moore is a 4-3 DE with some massive question marks about his commitment after the combine and Margus Hunt is this year’s Mike Mamula.
Jamar Taylor is an interesting prospect but not an elite CB and should be a late 2nd round pick.
Scooter, Mike Mamula was a 7th overall draft pick, Hunt is expected to be a 2nd round pick and a project player not expected to come in and make a big splash his first season. I think you are being a bit unfair in your critisism in that comparison. Hunt was known to be a good athlete before the combine so his performance wasn’t a big shock to those that have followed him. I would take him in the 2nd round just to let him block kicks on ST and let him get coached by Tomsula in the meantime.
I really disagree on Jamar Taylor, he is probably the best pure man corner in the draft with great skills and great tape and I think he should go around 34. On Moore I think he is a bit undersized as a 4-3 DE, he is 250 lbs, so he fits more as a 3-4 outside backer. I agree that Margus Hunt a little overrated right now but he has tremendous upside and we are a good fit for him with our coaching staff and him being able to study under Justin Smith . Regardless I’d easily take either combo over Xavier Rhodes.
Jamar Taylor is a good player. So is Blidi Wreh-wilson, Logan Ryan, Jordan Poyer, Johnthan Banks and few others grouped in the same ranking neighborhood who will available in the second and 3rd rounds. There’s some good depth on defense this year.
Spaceborn, I liken Hunt to Mamula in that they are guys who will be drafted on their athleticism, not their football skills. Hunt is a great athlete, but at this point an average footballer. He is entirely a projection pick based on athleticism, not film.
He may end up being good, perhaps even great, but he’s so incredibly raw you’ve got to be nervous about spending a high pick on him. Especially when you consider his age. If he was 21 and this raw, sure, but at 26?
Moore doesn’t have the athleticism to play in space like a 3-4 OLB in my opinion, and so he should be limited to playing 4-3 DE.
I like Jamar Taylor, and he was very good at the senior bowl. He could go early in the 2nd round, or potentially even late 1st round. I don’t consider him an elite prospect, but I think he’ll be a very solid coverage CB that is willing to help in run support.
I agree with tkamB. I’ve seen Rhodes play a few times, and shut down corner is not what comes to mind. I think his pre combine draft projection was about right, in the 25-35 range. I think everybody just needs to calm down, and don’t go all Al Davis on his combine stats. I say trust the tape. And Rhodes’ tape doesn’t jump off the screen. This draft is deep with quality DBs. The 49ers can stand pat and get what they need without breakin a sweat
@ tkamB:
I take it Matt Waldman didn’t convince you of Rhodes’ ability and potential?
I share some of your skepticism regarding his unwillingness to run the 3 cone and shuttle. That’s why I’d like to see he does at his Pro Day before going all in.
Claude it isn’t that I don’t think he has potential, because he does, its just that I don’t think he is worth the 11th overall pick and especially not worth giving up a boat load of picks that also could be potentially great players. I would be ecstatic to take him at 31 but 11 is just too high for him imo especially if it turns out his agility doesn’t match his straight line speed and you have to think about converting him to safety. People are raving about his 40 time but I don’t think his combine was amazing enough to catapult him from a late 1st/early 2nd guy into a top 15 guy.
@ tkamB:
Fair enough.
“Jamar Taylor…probably the best pure man corner in the draft with great skills and great tape and I think he should go around 34.”
Good thing I had him going to the 49ers in Rd 2. Don’t see the 49ers making that type of trade.
What’s special about Taylor?
Taylor is a pretty well rounded CB Grant. Very physical and matches up pretty well in man (though he’s going to have to get used to no contact beyond 5 yards), and also has experience in zone coverage. Lots to like.
NFL.com compares Taylor to Drayton Florence. A No.2 CB, in other words. To whom would you compare Taylor?
I’d say Leon Hall is a decent comparison.
Good call. Still, Leon Hall is a No.2 CB, a RCB. I think there are only two CBs in this draft who have the potential to be No.1 LCB shut down corners – Milliner and Rhodes. That’s why I think the Niners should trade up to 11 or 12.
Two cornerbacks I like better than Taylor are Jordan Poyer and Leon McFadden.
And I clarify that with ‘in terms of the way he plays’. He’s not at that level nor at the level Hall was coming out of college, but has the potential to be.
I like Rhodes a lot but that is too much to give up in trade. Staying where they are they can get a Dlineman like Short, Jones or Williams and then take one of the top Safeties like Elam, Reid or Cyprian with their pick from KC. Tons of options will be available and I think they will keep those picks unless they get an offer of a 1st in 2014 for one of them.
Well reasoned. Is anybody else concerned with the ‘inconsistent effort’ rap against Short? It’s a recurrent theme in many of the assessments of him that I’ve seen. Trent & Jim will make that judgement.
That’s the biggest knock on Short. In saying that, he also never came out. He played every down. I wonder if it is a conditioning issue more than an effort issue. By all accounts he’s a very hard worker in the weight room, maybe he needs more aerobic work. He trimmed down a little since the end of the season and he’s said he feels fitter as a result.
Grant did the homework. My trade value spreadsheet shows an almost exact value match. It’s pretty straight forward.
If you think Xavier Rhodes will be a pro-bowl stud (with good defensive starters at #61, #74) make the trade.
If you think Xavier Rhodes will be a quality starter but nothing special, don’t make the trade.
It all comes down to talent assessment.
Grants math on the sheet was correct; the question is whether Rhodes is worth that kind of draft pick compensation in a field of players where the prevailing consensus is there isn’t a whole lot of talent difference from the top 5 to the bottom of the first round. If it’s Patrick Peterson from a couple of years ago, then sure I can see it but Rhodes is not viewed in that class of prospect from what I’ve read and seen.
I’d love to have him, just not for the amount you’d have to give up to make that trade.
It does feel like too high of a price to pay for Rhodes. One thing is for sure, if Baalke makes such a dramatic trade up for any player, he better not miss.
I would bet on seeing smaller moves up [if any] and also trading out to next year. I don’t see the 49ers drafting 15 players.
Something I don’t know if anyone has touched on, yet. We all, and I do mean all, should be huge Alex Smith fans. At least, if you’re a “real 49er fan” you will be.
Why? Because if Smith flops in KC, how successful to you think the 49ers will be in trading the next QB they develop? Right, not very.
exgolfer,
I don’t see them trading any of the picks they have in the first 3 rounds unless they are offered better picks in 2014. To deep a draft with little blue chip prospects to move up for that kind of Chedder. As you mentioned, the moves they will likely try to make are packaging the lower round picks to try and move up in the 4th and 5th rounds.
Another reason we should hope Smith does well is because if he does, the conditional pick in 2014 will most likely be a 2nd rounder.
Rocket,
You’re right, I left the bit about the 2014 pick being conditional out. I assumed that fact was already discounted. Shouldn’t assume.
I should’ve been more clear on the trading out part, as well. Unless Baalke is bowled over by a trade offer, or the value of the best available player isn’t commensurate with the pick, I don’t think he’ll trade out of the first three rounds either. I was thinking he might trade out of the fourth round round, and later, to stock up on third and fourth round picks for next year’s draft.
KC franchised LT B. Albert. Does Reid still go OT at #1? He might. The Tag only solves a problem for one year, but it might take pressure off the Rookie for his learning year without exposing Alex’s blind side.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000146842/article/dwayne-bowe-kansas-city-chiefs-agree-to-contract
All signs are pointing to the Chiefs competing this year.
Some in KC don’t consider Albert to be a true tackle but he is reluctant to move to guard. This sort of looks like a one-year plug until the rookie is ready. Especially considering there is almost zero news that the team is working on an extension.
No way does DT Star Lotulelei fall out of the first round Grant.
How many first round picks have had heart conditions?
How many do that don’t know about it until later? He could check out fine around his pro day and learn it was the fact that he shed 10 lbs. in the three days leading up to the compouund.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000145102/article/star-lotulelei-can-exercise-despite-heart-condition
If he learns that for sure, that’s a different story. If there’s uncertainty, teams will be scared to draft him in the first round.
How many were considered number one overall picks before being dropped out of the first round entirely. Starr Will be gone in the first. Tallent trumps all especially when it hasnt affected his play at all to date.
Polian said it shouldn’t effect his draft position. You feel safe to draft him or you don’t. If you do, take him where you would have.
He’s top five talent and is one I would definitely trade up for.
He is but Grant’s point is legit. If he has a heart condition his stock will drop drastically, and if severe, he might even have to give up the game completely.
In fairness to the risk question, Pollian said he’d be leary of making that pick; predisposed not to, he’d have to be convinced by multiple medical analyses. There is some chance a clean bill of health could be issued before the draft, but without it some teams will pass.
I’m hesitant to give up #34 under the new multi-day draft format. Picks near the top of day 2 have a high “drool factor”, as teams will have all night to conceive trade-ups.
If the 49ers think talent is fairly even between picks 31-50, they could offer pick swaps that budge the 49ers #31 and #34 down a few spots in exchange for moving picks #61 or #74 or #93 significantly higher.
Basically, a “put as many picks as you can into the 2nd-mid 3rd” strategy. Especially valuable if the 49ers lose Sopoaga, RJF and Goldson. Rookie contracts are more cap friendly, and the 49ers have the most cap expensive defense in football. They will need a lot of new bodies either this year or next.
i agree with you….they are going to be up against the cap and could use some relief from rookie contracts. it would also infuse youth into the defense and hopefully maintain team speed and endurance. i would like them to have talent that could rotate into the line up so the defense is not winded come playoff time.
This is the strategy I expect the 49ers to utilize.
Jared Cook TE Titans is not getting franchised. If Walker walks I’d bring him in and it might even be an upgrade.
He wants to be paid like a WR so I don’t see it happening Razor.
That’s because he is a receiver first and a blocker never. He can’t replace what Delanie did in this offense.
We’re about to find out how bad the 49ers want the swiss army knife in their arsenal.
I was fairly surprised to see an OG at the #4 spot to say the least but when I saw a second one at #8 I thought I’d do a little searching. I had to go back to 1997 before I saw an OG go in the top 10 and he was in the #10 spot. Two guards went in 1983 in the #4 and the #9 spots so I wont say it’s impossible but it’s probably pretty unlikely seeing as it’s been nearly 30 years since it’s happened.
I think if we move up it will be for a OLB or a DL who can either collapse the pocket or get after the QB. It would’nt shock me if we moved up to get a situational player just as long as he can get after the QB.
Since the 9ers already have 2 starting OLB’s that get after the QB you should just go ahead and narrow that down to DL. No reason to spend multiple picks on a guy who won’t play without an injury to a starter.
@Grimey if they can find an OLB who can rush the passer like A.S. i would draft him he could play passing downs for Brooks also give A.S. more rest. I think they are more likely to draft a DL but if there is a pass rushing OLB stud available i would jump on him.
You can never have too many players who can get to the QB.
And as multi-talented as he is, Brooks has yet to show he can rack up double digit sacks in a season.
But when Brooks hits them, they go down flat. Dude is solid.
In theory another body to give the starters more rest is good but in reality the 9ers don’t substitute.
Grimey after the way the D played late this season maybe Fangio needs to take a 2nd look at his substitution philosophy.
I was stunned when I read Fangio refused to substitute by design. Remember how Defensive coordinator Seirfert rotated all those linemen in the 80′s? Put huge pressure on Marino in the Super Bowl.
Heck, the Harlson+Aldon rotation worked pretty well in 2011. If the Niners had their 2012 offense paired with the 2011 defense they would have gone 12-2 and dominated the Super Bowl.
Harbaugh has to have a sit down with Fang on the issue… soon.
ooops. “Seifert” not “Seirfert”
Brodie, I got the impression from some of Baalke’s comments that the message may have been sent to Fangio at the end of the season.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/depth-lacking-49ers-defensive-line
@Scooter
Why do you think Fangio was the caddy?
Fangio runs the defense, and the offense substitutes all the time (except the 5 starting OL, which every team tries to avoid subbing). Therefore I’m assuming Fangio is the one dictating the lack of substitution (as does Matt Maiocco in the article). I could be wrong, but whoever is responsible it sounds like it has been identified as a potential problem and area for improvement.
I completely agree with your philosophy old coach, but if I’m trying to think about the 9ers strategy in the draft I have to use the evidence that they’ve given me. Also we must take into account players motivations. Brooks has escalators in his contract based on snaps played. Do you think he wants to come off the field at all?
Mock just blew up, Alberts franchised
They’re still going to draft Joeckel.
“Kansas City drafts a left tackle to protect Alex Smith’s blindside.”
The left tackle doesn’t protect Alex’ blindside. That job is performed by the center.
(I couldn’t resist!)
Also, if Floyd drops to 10 I think someone will trade up to grab him.
No way they give up that many high picks for Rhodes when trufant is just as good and much more reasonable to trade up for. I understand the concept of cutting or trading Rogers and rotating culliver to free safety (which he’s played before) but the problem is up front. If you’re trading up that high and Floyd is on the board, you trade up for Floyd and get a keep Rogers.
Anyone else hearing whispers of Josh Cribbs coming to town?
I’ve heard people talk about it. He has ties with Seely. I’m not opposed with a friendly contract.
He’s as good as Ginn as a return man and even better as a WR.
Then again, Al Davis’ overhead projector is a better receiver than Ginn.
For the right price, why not?
If Jesse Williams is projecting that high, I believe my decision would be to trade up for him. Not only can he play the NT position, he will be able to play the 5 technique.
Most draft sites that I’ve read have Williams as a bottom of the 1st to 2nd round player. If that’s the case, he’ll be there if the Niners want him; maybe with either pick.
Thats what I thought too…however I saw him mocked close to where Grant has him for the first time just now.
Razor,
A good Dlineman is going to be there whether it’s Williams or somebody else. There is so many that somebody is going to fall. No need to trade up for a position as deep as this one is. No need to trade up at all really. They are going to have a choice of some pretty good talent with the picks they have at 31 & 34.
I’m relunctant to trade up as well, but I believe Mr. Williams could be elite after entering Tomsulas’ dojo, and studying on The Cowboys’ ranch. It would make Willis and Bowman happy.
Williams would play NT for the 49ers, not DE in the 3-4. He isn’t a 1-gap 3-4 DE, he’s a 2-gapper. Doesn’t have the elite first step you need to penetrate as a 1-gap 3-4 DE.
He could play some 1-tech in the 4 man front, but he’s not much of a pass rusher.
I like Williams…….would be a great value to get him. Hopefully he’s there when the niners pick.
@Scooter
Williams played nose tackle as a senior and defensive end as a junior in Alabama’s 3-4 defense and has experience playing both one-gap and two-gap techniques. He also played fullback in short-yardage and goal-line situations. If you study the tape, you’ll notice he has an impressive first step and change-of-direction ability. He is the perfect mercenary for Tomsulas’ brigade. Justin will help him. Navarro and Patrick will like him.
Sounds like another player I’ll be disagreeing with the consensus on then. I like Williams (heck, he’s from my home town of Brisbane, he must be good!), but I don’t see him displaying the quickness I usually associate with a 1-gap DE in a 3-4. Williams was great at taking on blockers to allow the LBs to do their thing, but didn’t show much pass rush ability. He’d be a perfect fit for the Steelers.
Razoreater says:
March 4, 2013 at 6:51 pm
@Scooter
Williams played nose tackle as a senior and defensive end as a junior in Alabama’s 3-4 defense and has experience playing both one-gap and two-gap techniques.
—————————-
Being able to do something in College doesn’t always means you’ll be as successful with it at the next level. Williams is a true 2 gap nose tackle. Scooter has argued that Fangio utilizes a 1 gap NT on the first couple downs and then they tend to go nickle or dime on third but I content that Fangio is simply working with what he has. The 49ers haven’t had a true two gap NT in….forever. What kind of things could Fangio do with that type of player? Would we play two man front still on third down or are doing so now simply because we don’t have the right guy to run with three?
A NT doesn’t need to be able to rush the QB as long as he forces the O-line to use two men to block him. With a C and G forced to double team the NT this opens up all sorts of possibilities for the LB’s behind him as well as the other d lineman. Put Williams in the A gap on Justin Smiths side, put JS out over the tackle and Aldon on either his outside or inside shoulder. Now that tackle who no longer has help from his guard or center now has to decide who to take by himself. If both JS and AS get blocked then the ILB behind the NT comes straight up the gap.
A two gap nose tackle can certainly help your pass rush without having to sack the QB himself.
Coffee, I was actually referring to the 49ers using Williams as a DE in the 3-4, not NT, as razor mentioned he would be a good 3-4 DE. I think he would be a good NT for the 49ers, an upgrade on Sopoaga, but would not be a fit as a DE.
Scoot I looked for the exact quote for a moment but I’m lazy so I just paraphrased instead but I thought I had seen where you said that Fangio’s style was to use 1 gap defenders but I was suggesting that it was a product more of what he had to work with more then a specific philosophy.
Niners will not be trading up this draft becasue it is so weak at the top they will use the draft picks they have where they are at or trade down or into next year. Stupid to think they would trade up into a weak top of the draft Trent is smarter than that.
Reading articles and mock drafts from Grant Cohn is like looking at a train wreck. You know the article or mock draft will disapoint, but you have to click and look, just to see truly how bad it can be. Well this mock draft did not disapoint, in a draft that is flat in talent he has the Niners using two top 35 picks to move up??
He keeps mentioning the value of the rookie wage scale, he is right, so pick 31 and 34 bring in TWO players who can contribute.
Pick 31- Margus Hunt
Pick 34 Crypen safety from Florida international.
Boom, better than Grants trade for a CB, then moving a corner to safety and cutting Rogers who would carry dead money.
You give Raiders way to much credit , there’s no way they give up that much
If the draft unfolds as this, then
1. Why not just stay put and draft Damontre Moore (OLB/DE)?
2. Or if they trade up, as you predict, then why not take Ezekiel Ansah (DE) instead of Rhodes?
Or, if they do trade up that high, Vacarro?
He appears to be another Whitner IMO. It would be better to stay put and draft Jonathan Cyprien if we draft a SS in the first round.
Vacarro is better in coverage but I see your point. He’s more like Whitner than he is like Earl Thomas.
Hells no. If we are going to give up three premium picks it had better be for the D-line. We have so many needs on D we are not in the position to trade three top picks for one player. What about NT, S, OLB and DE? Rhodes isn’t that good to give up three starting calibre players.
Sheldon Richardson or Zeke Ansah any day of the week. The secondary is NOTHING without a pass rush. And our linebackers are NOTHING without a stout front 4.
Hell, I would even take Vaccaro over Rhodes as he is probably a better overall player and fits a bigger need.
Revis, asked about playing for 49ers, said: “I would just be an addition to help them win that trophy. Would it be awesome? Yeah..”
Grant I do not like your trade proposal at all! We can pick two very good players with the 31 and 34 picks to build this team for the next five years. I would not give up all our top picks for Rhodes!
What do you guys think of Phillip Thomas of Fresno State as a mid round pick if we miss out on the top 3 safeties?
http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/cfb/131792/phillip-thomas
I get the feeling his short comings can be addressed with some good coaching from our secondary coach.
To all the Margus Hunt fans, I can see the appeal. Great measurables, explosive, real football strength (not just weight room strength), agile, shot-put at SMU (like Michael Carter), a high “upside” and so on… All good. All true. All very impressive.
But at #31 or #34? Really? That high?
I don’t see it. Baalke has a strong “film over measurables” philosophy. Baalke wants “natural football instincts” or he won’t even consider them. In youtubes Hunt seems OK some plays, totally lost on many others. He plays high. Takes forever to locate the ball. Fixable, but will take time (even with Tomsula’s magic).
Hunt is a project even for situational substitutions, at least a two year project to start, and he’s turning 26 this summer. A #31/#34 for a player that won’t start until he’s 28 seems a bit steep. Your not drafting many years of high level play, even if he turns out well.
Hunt is such a good athlete I’d grab him at #61. No way at #31/#34.
Then there is the other part of the age spectrum like Anthony Davis, who was drafted so young he will be FA about 3-4 years before his skills peak.
Couldn’t agree more Brodie. He’s an athlete not a footballer at this point in time, and his age means he won’t have a lot of years of production. Late 1st/ early 2nd is far too high for him.
Hey now, drafting a grandfather worked great for Cleveland!
Will people knock off the idiotic idea of moving Culliver to safety? I swear some fans think players are plug and play baseball players. To play safety, it takes an understanding of the game that goes far beyond what a guy like Culliver is currently capable of. Safeties need to know where everybody on the defense lines up, what everybody’s responsibilities are and how offenses will attack them. According to Ed Reed in a recent interviewers, the safety positjoned has changed over the past ten years where now tbe safety is now more than anything a communicator to his teammates. Heck, while Culliver grades out pretty well playing trail man coverage, he sucks in zone and still makes mental errors that a safety should never make.
Yup. Culliver played safety in college, but there is a reason the 49ers moved him to corner. Cully still needs to iron out technique issues, like slowing WAY down when he turns to locate the ball. Perfectly covered receivers suddenly have major separation as soon as Cully turns his head. Drives me nuts.
Keep him at corner.
Wouldn’t this issue be minimzed if he was playing safety, since he wouldn’t be running with receivers as often?
Exgolfer you are right on. Running with TE’s is alot easier than running with WR’s. With Culliver at S he can cover TE’s so our ILB’s do’nt have to. Which would allow the 9ers to let willis and bowman roam the middle or replace one of them with an extra DB and give the ILB’s more rest
@ old coach and exgolpher. sorry but that’s a simple understanding defensive back it’s not stand man responsibilities. More often than not Niners play 2 deep safeties. For example; 2 deep man coverage, the offense has a TE and WR on one side. The TE starts down the middle and the WR a 9 route. The safety must protect deep and know the offenses’ tendencies. The safety must know if the WR will turn his 9 route into a deep post and if the TE will go from challenging the seam to a deep out. The safety should communicat with the CB that even though he has outside under responsabilities, to stick close and watch for the move inside to the post while the safety has to watch that the CB isnt beaten in the deep middle while protecting the deep out route by the TE. THATS PLAYING SAFETY. NOT SIMPLY MANNING UP ON TEs. Culliver makes too many mistakes as a corner.
@Allforfun….I’ve stated here numerous times i do’nt like the way the 9ers play 2 deep man under, it puts to much responsibilty on our ILB’s to cover TE’s man to man. i believe a large part of the reason we play that way is our 2 safeties ca’nt cover one on one so i would like us to have a safety [Culliver] who can cover TE”s and scrap the 2 deep man under defense
@allforfun….Just like Goldson
No doubt Goldso. Sstill makes some mental errors or simply goes fof the big play or hit and messes up. But at least he knows what he should be doing most of the time. Culliver in deep coverage just looks lost in space.
@oldcoach
what would you have them do? play cover 1 single high safety? cover 0 straight up Man (somewhere Al Davis is smiling)? I remember playing against those defenses in High School…pretty basic stuff you just don’t see it in the NFL. If they use more zone, then they can’t isolate a safety on a TE anyway plus it doesn’t play to the linebacker’s strengths which is aggressive stick to their man speed, not passive read and react zone coverage.
Goldson likes to tackle with his head leading. Like a head butt, only to the body of the WR so it’s legal.
If the 49ers acquire Revis and retain Goldson, we will have “Revis and Butt Head” on the defense.
hehe… he… hehehe… hehe (drool)
I can see why that was funny in your head, but that’s just too long of a trip.
6. Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State: As happens every year because the media is not allowed in to see the bulk of workouts, players get tagged with having a “great day” when they run a very fast 40 time, which is why everyone was hyping Rhodes. However, after speaking to people who were inside and watched the positional drills I learned the true story
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-looks-at-9-players-who-struggled-at-Combine.html
that was a good read, thanks for posting
I wonder if this will change the National Football Post’s grade for Rhodes?
Can we all decide if we’re going to care about what the athlete do at the Combine or not? If a guy we like has a bad day we all say who cares it’s just the underwear Olympics and it’s the interviews and physicals that matter but if a guy we don’t like has a bad day then suddenly it becomes a red flag…
I’m confused.
CFC
If a guy who look athletic on tape comes to the combine and proves it it supports what people saw on tape even though the combine in and of itself does not predict football greatness. If however a guy we never heard of and who has average film comes and blows up the workouts (hello Bruce Campbell) then its a red flag because what we see (game film) doesnt match up with the measurables(combine) thats why il take a “slow footed” Te’o over an unknown with great times because “if his times are so great why was he unknown and didnt stand out on film”?
Here’s my second attempt at a mock draft:
ROUND 1
TRADE- Niners trade CB Carlos Rogers, the 74th pick(3rd round), and their 2014 1st
round pick to the Eagles for the 4th pick(1st round) and the 186th pick(6th
round).
PICK 4
Utah DT Star Lotulelei
A strong beast that would be a huge upgrade over Soap and RJF.
Second Option: Alabama CB Dee Milliner
Previous Option: None
PICK 31
Southern Methodist DE Margus Hunt
Extraordinary upside that can’t be ignored and will be a key part of the defense after Cowboy is done.
Second Option: Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins
Previous Option: Ohio State DT Johnathan Hankins
ROUND 2
TRADE-Jets trade the 39th pick(2nd round), the 72nd pick(3rd round), the 103rd
pick(4th round), the 168th pick(6th round) and the 2014 1st round pick to the
Niners for Parys Haralson, the 34th pick(2nd round) and a conditional
2014 4th round pick.
PICK 39
Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins
Though not fast plays quick and is a good route runner. Is constantly hungry.
Second Option: Florida International SS Jonathan Cyprien
Previous Option: Fresno State FS Phillip Thomas
PICK 61
Marshall WR Aaron Dobson
A speedy and savvy route-runner who would be a great compliment to a possession WR like Crabtree.
Second Option: Missouri Southern State DT Brandon Williams
Previous Option: Marshall WR Aaron Dobson
Round 3
PICK 72
Fresno State FS Phillip Thomas
An underrated safety that could be the next Ed Reed.
Second Option: California C Brian Schwenke
Previous Option: None
PICK 93
Louisiana State CB Tyrann Mathieu
Could be the steal of the draft and an answer to the void at PR if he has finally cleaned up his act.
Second Option: Clemson DE Malliciah Goodman
Previous Option: Clemson DE Malliciah Goodman
ROUND 4
PICK 103
Georgia Southern SS JJ Wilcox
A project that has the capability to become a great SS and eventual successor to Whitner if he is still on the team.
Second Option: Alabama ILB Nico Johnson
Previous Option: None
PICK 125
Stanford OLB Chase Thomas
An effective pass rusher that could spell Brooks or Smith if needed.
Second Option: Southern California FS T.J. McDonald
Previous Option: None
ROUND 5
PICK 150
North Carolina OT Brennan Williams
An athletic OL that could put the heat on Staley and Davis to perform better.
Second Option: Second option: Arizona QB Matt Scott
PICK 157
Iowa State ILB A.J. Klein
Though he won’t be a starter, can be an excellent backup and possible weapon on ST given his reliability as a tackler.
Second Option: Texas Christian WR Josh Boyce
Round 6
Pick 168
UCLA OG Jeff Bacca
Versatile OL who played at T, G, and C in college.
Second option: Kansas OT Tanner Hawkinson
TRADE-Saints trade a 2014 5th round pick and a 2014 6th round pick to the Niners for the 170th pick(6th round), the 211th pick(7th round), and the 221st pick(7th round).
PICK 189
Florida State K Dustin Hopkins
Second option: Florida K Caleb Sturgis
Well this is my second mock. What do you guys think?
wow, lots of wheeling and dealing there. just curious who replaces rogers if he is traded. i’m not high on Margus Hunt ……i think his value is 3rd round, but that is me. nice choice of players though.
He will most likely come through FA dc9er. One that catches my eye is CB Brent Grimes. He is coming back from an injury and could be a low-cost high- reward bargain.
Lots of good looking players in there MidWest. My first comment is I don’t know how realistic those trades are. Baalke loves future picks so I can’t see him giving up a 1st rounder in 2014 to move up. Especially with a few guys contracts coming up next year. And getting the Jets 1st next year, 2nd, 3rd and 4th this year for the 34th pick + Haralson (+ chump change) seems just as unlikely. That’s a lot of value being attached to Haralson, considering I reckon the 49ers would jump at an offer of the Jest 2nd and 4th round picks for the 34th pick. Also, what is the condition of the 4th round pick? That is usually attached to some level of player performance, but the 49ers aren’t taking any Jets players to measure performance against…
I’ve expressed my thoughts on Hunt and Mathieu ad nauseum, so I won’t cover that ground again. I’ll just say, not a fan.
Lotulelei looks good, but the heart thing is a concern. Do the 49ers need to trade up that far to get a good DT? If Lotulelei’s health checks out he looks a good fit for the 49ers D.
Hopkins and Dobson would add some big bodied WRs to the 49ers receiving core. Add Crabs and you’ve got some physical WRs there. My concern is they are all physical WRs that aren’t particularly speedy.
Thomas and Wilcox sort out the safety position. I really like Thomas, he looks the goods to me. Wilcox is the type of good athlete that is willing to do anything that Baalke and Harbaugh love.
Brennan Williams and Jeff Baca – good lower round picks. Williams in particular would probably be considered a much higher round pick if he wasn’t coming off an injury. Hopkins of course is a no-brainer assuming Akers is cut.
Thanks for the feedback Scooter. I’ll try my best to answer some of your concerns here:
1. I believe Lotulelei is a talent worth giving up next year’s first round pick for. I also think he will check out ok around his pro day because of the fact he shed nearly 10 lbs. in three days leading up to the Combine which could have caused him to have tested positive for a heart condition. His second opinion on it will be telling as to where he will fall in the draft and if he is worth the risk.
2. I think that Barkley will be drafted first causing Geno Smith to fall to the early second round. The Jets are desperate at the QB position and therefore will be ripe for the fleecing. Before you say it’s impossible, remember that Baalke just traded Alex Smith for a second round pick and a conditional third round pick that could turn into a second round pick based on Smith’s performance.
3. The conditional 2014 fourth round pick could turn into a third round pick based on Haralson’s performance.
4. I wasn’t a fan of Hunt either but the tremendous amount of upside just can’t be ignored. He could sit for a year behind Cowboy and learn the ropes from our DL coach. Yes he’ll be 27 at that time, but he could fill a need for a least 8-10 years regardless. I also am not a huge fan of Mathieu, but (if clean mind you) could be the answer for the teans’ struggles against the speedster WR. He is also a dynamic PR which adds to his value. And let’s not forget that he could be an excellent gunner on ST too.
4. According to Hopkins’ profile though he is not fast he plays quick. Track speed only works if you have the skill set to go with it and I only see Tavon Austin with that. Being game fast is usually the better of the two though so that’s why I have the Niners drafting Hopkins. As for Dobson, his profile does label him as speedy; but we won’t know for sure until his pro day as he had to miss the Combine due to an injury that (if I remember correctly) was to his hamstring.
Thank MidWest, you clearly put a lot of thought into this.
This is great. Thanks, MidWestNiner. I especially like the two early wide receiver picks.
Not sure if anyone caught the D.Revis interview on NFL.com recently, but he would like the opportunity to come to the 49ers and he believes he can help them win a SB.
I’ve said from day one, that if Revis is willing to be (extremely) flexible on his money demands, I would welcome him on the team.
He has to be financially flexible, be more than a one year rental, and come back from his injury as the Revis of old.
Exactly. But the fact that he is coming back from a major injury should enhance the 49ers bargaining power.
If the 49ers can win a SB with Revis and keep the player core for another run in 2014 some of these players may be willing to take a pay cut at the chance of winning back to back Superbowls.
True on all accounts AES, but you have to convince the Jets to take less for the face of their franchise. We’re loaded with picks, but I think the Jets will want two first round picks plus a few of our other picks. That’s too much especially considering that the Niners may need some if not most of this years’ picks to address and potential holes in the near future.
Hey Grant,
I was just reading about a WR from a smaller school (Northern Iowa)…Terrell Sinkfield. He looks like he’d be a steal in the later rounds (4th or 5th). He just ran a 4.19 at Minnesota’s Pro-Day. What I like about his playing, besides the fact that he can run right by anybody, is that 1) he plays fast, 2) he can find the ball in the air going back to get it, 3) he’s pretty physical for his size, 4) he fights for the ball in the air, and 5) he’s done some return duties as well.
I know he hasn’t played against top schools, but Kaep came from a “lesser” division. What I noticed was 1) he wasn’t used to spread the field in college, instead more of a possession receiver. However, I think that has more to do with the limitations of their QB and the fact that he didn’t have much arm strength. But Kaep, he can lead him deep down field or get the ball out in front of him quickly as he’s breaking away, therefore maximizing his speed and forcing safeties to play deeper off the line.
Can you find out more about this kid? And if anyone else knows something about him, please share!
Thanks!
PFT report casts doubt on his time.Others clocked him at 4.3 still fast but not record breaking-apparently not much production in college.
This is all I could find NinersRoc.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=97451&draftyear=2013&genpos=WR
I would say that he’s closer to a seventh round pick if not an undrafted FA. He could be a great find though. TBD.
Ninersroc-here are some of the small school and late rnd guys catching my eye: Jasper Collins WR(from the great program at Mt.Union);Pete Lalich QB; Ty Powell OLB;Mike Catapano DL;RexBurkhead RB(late rnd gem)-search and enjoy!
Thank GOD Grant is not a GM. Trading essentially 2 1st round picks and a 3rd rounder to draft ONE cornerback, in a draft that’s DEEP in cornerbacks.. not to mention the Niners 3 starting quality CBs on their roster now.
Don’t let Chris Culliver piss-poor performance fool you.. the Niners need help in the secondary, but they need more help on the defensive line. I’d like to see the Niners draft a CB and a Safety in the first 3 rounds, but to give up all that for one guy isn’t smart drafting.
I don’t know if this Xavier guy is the next Revis or Nnamdi, but good CB that can develop into starters can be found in the 2nd-3rd rounds, and the Niners don’t have to give anything up and they keep all their picks.
KC has franchised tagged their left tackle….they may be trading out of the #1 spot to address other needs
I don’t think that they will be able to do so Jaws.
It’s a little more attractive to teams since the new Rookie Cap, but who wants who? Maybe KC goes DL if they can’t trade back.
I agree with with that Brotha. I think DT Sharrif Floyd could be the top pick now.
Grant, totally disagree with this mock. On Sunday April 28 I’m absolutely positive 100% at the team press conference the brass will introduce 15 brand new, just drafted 49ers. Fifteen all-pretty big guys standing side by side on a small stage, all smiles and friendly like. Can’t hardly wait. 15. Bank it. (Smiley face – kidding.)
The real number? Probably 3 or 4 players, a kicker and a back-up qb.
I do’nt believe the 9ers will choose a NT with either of their first 2 picks unless he is the kind of player who can stay on the field all 3 downs. they need someone who can collapse the pocket on passing downs as well as be a run stuffer on 1st down.
Star Lotulelei.
Midwest it would probably take the 9ers the 31st, 34th picks along with our own 3rd rd and a 5th or 6th rd to get to where we could pick Lotulelei. Do you think hes worth that much?
I have a scenario set in my second mock draft in how the team could draft him Coach. Check out my post from last night at 11:19 P.M.
Mid west so you are very high on C. Rogers you think he is a coverage stud?
The Eagles will most likely lose both of their starting CBs this off-season and will need a veteran presence at that position if they draft a CB or two. There also stands a good chance he will be a cheaper option than some CBs on the FA market.
Jesse Williams
There are a lot of possibilities of which way they could go with trades, signings and draft, but from today’s perspective I’m still liking the idea of loading up our choices in Rounds 2-5. We’ll still need some of those 7ths for some ST guys. That’s where we can find value at s/cb/te/wr/dl/qb. Then later rounds ot/ilb/pk/another wr/kr. Free agency alters priorities by need.
Now NG: If RJF leaves, do they try to bring back Soap at reduced $?
Here’s an interesting article on the pass rushers in this draft. It shows how good Alex Okafor is. http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/27/pass-rushers-pt1/
One of the reasons I think he will be gone by the middle of the first round.
“Ertz can line up at tight end, in the back field, in the slot and at wide receiver. ”
That sounds awfully familiar, when have I heard Grant talk about a player like that before? Just for the sake of keeping track, how many times did Fleener line up in the back field, slot or at wide receiver this past season?
Ya know Grant, not all above average college TE’s are pseudo slot/flanker receivers in the NFL some of them are just good pass catching TE’s.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/42519/321/zach-ertz-fluid-mover
Ah, well if Rotoworld is saying it then it’s gotta be true cause they’ve given steered me wrong on any of my Fantasy Football decisions ;)
I not saying you’re wrong Grant just noticing what might be a draft pattern for ya. We’ll have to see if you develop a fancy for a pass catching TE next year as well.
/sigh OK from this moment forward I will actually proof read my posts before posting(novel idea I know) because my posts just end up being train wrecks of the English language whenever I don’t.
The vast majority of comments regarding free agency or the draft fall into one of two camps. Those who believe we need to improve our defensive back field or those of us who believe the majority of our pass defensive problems were pass rush related and believe we need to improve at OLB or DL. I’m curious where the majority of us fall on this issue. So Grant how about a new poll question.
1981 Lott Wright Williamson – 2013 ? ? ? Not a bad blueprint.
Brilliant at the time, but it helped we were picking 4th or so, LOL! Also, other than Hicks, we had a bunch of carpenters and truck drivers playing db. If those rookies had stunk Walsh still would’ve had to start them!
No question how well that worked out though.
Don’t forget those of us that think the 49ers need to improve both old coach!
I think DL should be targeted first based primarily on the quality of the DL available in the 1st round this year.
One cannot survive without the other…
Scooter just curious which one should be targeted first
I would add that the scheme needs to be changed and probably will be given Vic was the caddy. Look what happened to the last one…
Target DL first because of the number of 1st round talent DL available, and because I think the better value for DBs is in rounds 2 and 3.
Rounds 2 and 3 would be the rounds to take your new Free Safety and two Cornerbacks.
I’m leaning slightly to pass rush/interior defense. This can change depending on how free agency and the actual draft unfolds on day 1.
When the late season pass rush faded, the DBs were forced to change to new coverages. This made the individual coverage problems look far worse then they actually were. The 49ers got burned bad passing off coverage responsibilities from zone to zone.
With a healthy, fresh pass rush the Niners can use their good old 2011 schemes more. They still need improvement at DB, but not as urgently.
My surprise prediction… the 49ers draft an “every down” running back in the first three rounds. Dixon, LMJ (and to a lesser extent Hunter’s) presence on the field tends to telegraph plays to the defense. An inside power runner that’s nimble enough to attack the edge is an overlooked need.
Are there any out there who think our first pick should be neither a DB or a pass rusher?
What position do you think it should be Coach and why? Who would you choose at that position and how would you go about acquiring him in the draft?
Midwest i would draft a DT\DE who could either be groomed to take justin smiths job or start at NT. the #1 ability i would want him to have is to collapse the pocket. I believe if we had another interior lineman to go with JS who could move the pocket our sack # would rise by 25%
I agree with you Old Coach, benchpressing 600 pounds, out of Greenboro, AlaBAMA ……. Jesse Williams.
How far do you think the 49ers should be willing to move up to get Jesse Williams razor?
@Scooter
Baalke has shown he’s willing to give up a little to trade up slightly and grab his guy so…I would defer to his expertise and yours over mine, I am just a fans opinion. I think this kid can play though.
After DL and DB, the only other position I’d seriously consider would be WR.
If an interior 3-4 DE or DT, but only if they rate higher the draft board then pass rusher or DB.
Hey! Remember Grant’s big man crush, Coby Fleener? Here’s his stats from last year. Yeah, big difference maker:
http://www.nfl.com/player/cobyfleener/2532838/profile
Eh, better than my draft crush. I really liked Stephen Hill.
And way, way, WAY better than Baalke’s draft crush, the man in the envelope.
I wanted a guard /shrug
In fairness CfC – who the heck knew Boone would be one of the best guards in the league?
queue 20 people that will post they knew he’d be great.
Without trading up the first pick is a big question.Given Grants scenario I could see us staying pat and going WR in the late first round .Justin Hunter would be fine with me-then a non trade(won’t happen) mock proceed as follows:Hunter WR;(2) Cyprien S;(2b)Darius Slay CB;(3) DaRick RogersWR-thus we have the Tenn.two;(3b)Brandon Williams DT -(con’t)
(cont)-(4) M Scott QB;(5) M Lattimore-rehab 1st year(5) Dustin Hopkins-small reach but let’s make sure he’s ours;(6)Reid Flagel TE/OT;(6)Mike Capatano DE;(7)Ty Powell OLB;(7)Zack Zudfeld TE.
I’d love to see the 49ers take a flier on Lattimore in the 4th or 5th round. The potential reward seems well worth the risk.
Then again, my spell-check keeps trying to change Lattimore into Baltimore which makes me want to go all Ray Lewis and stab things.
Do we need to warn your inlaw?
Clowney ran a 4.5 40…..
Has anyone been reading PFF’s series of “Performance Based Value” articles? It’s been a good read so far.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/05/performance-based-value-team-totals/
Of course, I may be biased because they rank the 49ers #1 by a significant margin.
Interesting point of view.