Now that the NFL Scouting Combine is over, let’s try to predict what the 49ers will do this offseason. Here’s my best guess. I’m eager to read yours.
FREE AGENCY
OUT: Dashon Goldson, Isaac Sopoaga, Ricky Jean Francois, Larry Grant, Leonard Davis, Tramaine Brock, Clark Haggans and Ted Ginn Jr. Goldson wants too much money, and the 49ers want a free safety with cornerback skills. Jean Francois signs with the Packers.
CUT: Carlos Rogers, David Akers.
POSITION CHANGE: Chris Culliver becomes the starting free safety.
RE-SIGNED: Delanie Walker, Tavares Gooden.
DRAFT
- The 49ers trade the 31st pick, the 34th pick and the 94th pick to the Chargers for the 11th pick and the 138th pick. With the 11th pick, the 49ers draft Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes. The 49ers get their version of the Seahawks’ top cornerback, Richard Sherman – a big, physical corner who can play press coverage. Rhodes can also fly – he ran an unofficial 4.41 40-yard dash at the Combine. To get Rhodes, the 49ers have to trade ahead of the Dolphins and Buccaneers. Both teams are rumored to covet the big cornerback.
- With the 61st pick, the 49ers draft the deep-threat wide out from Oregon State, Markus Wheaton. The best wide receiver at the Senior Bowl, Wheaton falls to the end of the second round because he’s only 5-11. But I think he’s going to be similar to Mike Wallace, only better, because Wheaton has a wider catching radius.
- With the 74th pick, the 49ers draft Ricky Jean Francois’ replacement, DT Bennie Logan. Like Jean Francois, Logan played at LSU. Also like Jean Francois, Logan is 6-3 and about 300 pounds. Logan will compete to be the 49ers’ starting nose tackle.
- With the compensatory pick at the end of the third round, the 49ers draft Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman’s backup, Penn State inside linebacker Gerald Hodges. The 49ers have reportedly met with Hodges, and they need someone to replace Larry Grant if he leaves in free agency.
- With their fourth round pick, the 49ers draft LSU cornerback Tyrann Mathieu to cover the slot in the future. Mathieu can also replace Culliver as a special teams gunner. With Rhodes and Mathieu, the 49ers can cut Carlos Rogers whenever they want.
- With their first fifth round pick, the one from the Chargers, the 49ers draft another cornerback, Terry Hawthorne from the University of Illinois. Tarell Brown will be a free agent after next season, and in case the 49ers cannot agree to an extension with him, they need a backup option. Hawthorne is a good backup option. He’s met with the 49ers, and he’s bigger and faster than Brown.
- With their second fifth round pick, the one from the Colts, the 49ers draft Stanford rush linebacker Chase Thomas.
- With their third fifth round pick, the 49ers draft the dual threat quarterback from the University of Arizona, Matt Scott. The 49ers need a third quarterback, so they might as well draft a player for Jim Harbaugh, the top QB mentor in the NFL, to mentor and develop. The 49ers probably could trade Scott for a second round pick after a year or two of him working with Harbaugh.
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Thought they couldn’t trade comp picks.
The comp pick is going to be between 96-100. They could trade No.94 to the Chargers and draft Hodges with the comp pick.
They can not.
They can’t. They’d have to trade their own 3rd round pick.
I fixed it. They’d trade 94 and get the Chargers’ fifth rounder back.
Mock (1) Robert Woods;(2)Margus Hunt DE ;(2b)Brandon Williams DT(3) Tyrann Mathieu CB;(3b)D J Swearinger FS;(4)Matt ScottQB;(5) Marcus Lattimore RB;(5b)Dustin HopkinsK-package lower ropunds toward next year -look for UDFA OLB
Grant
So you think the Niner won’t go after a DE/OLB pass rushing specialist?
Sio Moore would be a good option, but they’d have to draft him at 74. It’s more important to replace Jean Francois and get a nose tackle at that point, IMO.
Why is it more important to draft a NT in round 3 that may only play 30% of the snaps? If you’re in nickel or dime 70% of the time, it seems like a pass-rushing OLB is a better bet early, particularly because they’re harder to find.
Logan can play other positions, not just nose tackle.
I have the Niners drafting Chase Thomas in the fifth.
Plus, the Niners have Darius Fleming returning from injury next year, so maybe they believe he’ll perform and I also believe they will keep Haralson, but just re-sign cheaper.
Grant..I like your predictions but I would hate to see Goldson leave..I dont think the Niners let him walk even if they franchise him one more year..And please god no on the B Lloyd …Hes a bad locker room guy and Id take my chances on Manningham before him..According to this offseason the 49ers would have gotten alot worse not better..Good teams shouldnt be depending on so many rookies to come in and start..
Thank you. They could cut Lloyd in training camp if Wheaton and Jenkins are playing well.
Great story on the cap $$$
SF 49ers Salary Cap Situation Today
As it stands today, the San Francisco 49ers are set to accrue ~$123.3 Million in the 2013 season against a predicted salary cap of ~121 Million. The approximated $123.3M includes committed money and dead money in addition to all 49er player’s salary for 2013.
Note:
I’m defining “committed money” as the amount of money the 49ers owe to players as a result of incentives or contract stipulations (e.g. Alex Smith’s contract from last year requires SF to pay him a minimum of $1.25M regardless of whether he is still on the team in 2013).
“Dead money” is a term used to represent money that is paid to players as a result of SF signing and then releasing these players. Yes, the money SF uses to sign and release football players during the preseason and for practice squad purposes DO count against the 49er’s Salary Cap. This amount can vary, but in 49er’s case is minute (~400k) compared to the salary cap.
Highly Likely Events to Take Place
1) SF is likely to trade or release Alex Smith, which will open 8.5M in salary cap money in 2013.
2) SF is likely to release David Akers, which will open up 3.5M in salary cap money in 2014.
Events That Should Take Place
1) Carlos Rogers should either be released, traded, or have contract reduced.
If Carlos is released or traded, SF will open up ~2.9M in salary cap money in 2013
2) Vernon Davis should have contract restructured.
Since Vernon is one of the individuals taking up the most cap space in 2013 and with plenty of cap space in 2014. It is likely SF will restructure his contract to open as much as 5M in cap space for the 2013 season.
3) Justin Smith should have contract extended.
Justin, who will turn 34 this year, is on his way to earning 8M in the final year of his contract. Considering his age and the competitiveness of this team in the next few years, Justin will likely restructure his contract, assuming that SF will extend his contract so he can play out his career in San Francisco. This should allow up to 4M in cap space for the 2013 season.
In summary, SF will have ~22M of cap space in 2013.
SF Free Agents
OG Leonard Davis
WR/PR Ted Ginn Jr
FS Dashon Goldson
LB Tavares Gooden
LB Larry Grant
DL Ricky Jean Francois
WR Randy Moss
NT Isaac Sopoaga
TE Delanie Walker
Without analyzing every player, the 2 players that are MUST signs are Dashon Goldson and Delanie Walker.
I assume Dashon Goldson will want a 5-year contract worth no less than 35M, with 20M in guaranteed (This is comparable to the Eric Weddle deal in 2011). This year, I think SF will come to terms with Dashon. This deal will take a 6.5M hit to the salary cap.
Delanie played on a 2M salary last year and should command a 4 year 15M with 8M guaranteed. Delanie has been one of the most underrated players on the team. This deal will take a 3M hit to the salary cap.
In Conclusion
SF can have as much as 22M in Cap Space, enough to resign Dashon Goldson and Delanie Walker and be active in the offseason. An important note is that SF also has 27 players retained through 2014 that accounts for half of a predicted 128M salary cap in 2014, so SF can pour costs over to 2014, if needed. With a stacked roster, plenty of cash and 14 draft picks, look for SF to go after big names in the off season.
Releasing Rogers only saves $1.11m against the 2013 cap.
I am pretty sure that the trade of Alex Smith will open $9.75 million in 2013 cap space. The 49ers will save $1.25 million in likely to be earned incentives.
Last I read, the 2013 salary cap will be $123 million. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/28/salary-cap-sits-at-123-million-precisely/
I hope the 49ers are very careful about creating 2013 cap space at the expense of future cap space. Usually, that creates a worse problem in the future. Look at the position the Saints are putting themselves in. The 49ers have some key contributors whose salaries and cap figures are going to take a huge jump in the next 2 years – Kaepernick, Crabtree, Aldon Smith, for example – as well as other players who will have to be re-signed or replaced within the same period – Justin Smith, Brown, Goodwin, Whitner, for example. I’d rather the team did not unnecessarily hamstring itself in 2014 and 2015 in order to overpay a player in 2013.
Fortunately, Baalke seems to share that philosophy. “You can’t pay everybody, and you certainly can’t pay everybody if you overpay some players.” (not quite a direct quote, but an accurate paraphrase).
I’d much prefer that the team do what it appears to be doing. Planning for 2014 personnel losses by drafting quality replacements in 2013. If Baalke is on his game, the 5 picks in the top 93 can be used to grab 3-5 future starters, most of whom could contribute this year.
http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/smith-trade-will-clear-85-million-cap-room
Mastery of the salary cap is not one of Maiocco’s strong points.
From http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/2/28/4038592/alex-smith-trade-49ers-salary-cap-2013
Once the 49ers officially complete their trade of Alex Smith, they will save $9.75 million. In getting a deal done before April 1, the 49ers pass along Alex Smith’s $7.5 million base salary to the Chiefs. Assuming the deal gets done shortly after the start of the league year, the team also avoids Smith’s $1 million roster bonus. That amount is due on March 14 at 1:00 p.m. PT. Additionally, the 49ers would pass along Smith’s $1 million in incentives and $250,000 in a workout bonus.
*is not one of Maiocco’s strengths.
Note: the $1.25 million in “committed money” to Alex Smith travels with his contract. If the trade to KC goes through, KC, not SF, will owe him that $ (unless the 49ers expressly agree to pay it).
I read somewhere that Carlos Rogers contract is guaranteed money for the first 2 years. Does that mean if they cut him they don’t save a dime (in fact, accelerating the signing bonus would mean he ends up costing more against the cap)?
Scratch that, just did some more digging and only $1.75M of his 2013 salary is guaranteed.
http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=775489-49ers-carlos-rogers-contract-details
Scooter,
Check out spotrac.com. They have added a cap hit column that answers this stuff for you.
Thanks Jack, I’ll check it out.
These draft picks will actually help them to shed salary and get stronger now and in the future
Interesting. If they increase the number of CB’s on the roster from 5 to 6 as you propose which position will be reduced in 2013?
They would cut Cox.
Got ya. Must have missed it.
Let them compete. Bemember Cox was projected as an early second round pick at one time. Let them compete. You know, like the old days. Last man standing for paychecks. Let them compete. Its the Harbaugh way. Workman like.
Dunta Robinson
No!
I think the last time they drafted a conversion QB was Marshall ala Mike Nolan. Before that it was Cedric Wilson and before that it was Freddie. Did I miss any? Any remeber Marlin Briscoe. Played for the Dolphons a few years ago?
I’m anxious to put mine up after I get some stuff done but I first wanted to ask why you changed your mind on Moss? Do you think the 49ers will not offer him a contract anymore?
I guess it makes more sense to bring back Moss than bring in Lloyd. I’ll change that.
Ducky
http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a368/amono21/lloyd_ducks.gif
blast, that worked when I put it in my browser but the link doesn’t seem to work form here.
Grant,
I understand Baalke doesn’t and will not overpay for a player but I can’t see how Goldson isn’t a Top 3 FS in the league?!? I don’t think Culliver brings the wood like DG and instead is being prepped to take over for Rogers.
I don’t think Baalke wants to pay $7 or $8 million a year for a guy who specializes in bringing the wood. Culliver is way cheaper, he covers more ground and is better in man coverage.
Culliver sucks no matter where he plays. And he is an idiot. Trade him for anything. Good riddance.
Please stop it about Culliver. I didn’t like it when the 49ers drafted him, and I REALLY don’t like him now.
I saw him play for SC few years back. I think I saw him play about maybe 5 games. I remember when he played against Alabama. Before the game, there was talk about Julio Jones’ lack of production. Well, all Jones needed was Culliver on the other side. Jones smoked him for the whole game. After that game they moved Culliver to FS. There, he looked like Michael Huff. Not good. Trade him! get whatever you can get. His stock will only go down
What about David Akers? He is out and I think they take one of the kickers from FSU or Florida. Also I think Goodwin gets cut if he doesnt agree to a lower deal and free up some cap room
Goodwin has no reason to take a pay cut, if the 49ers ask him to or cut him he can go find a dozen teams that will pay him what he was going to earn this year.
He has a 5 million cap figure and would be the highest paid OL on the team. Wouldnt be surprised if they went with youth, IE Looney or Kilgore
there isn’t a market for centers over 30.
Also I think Whitner will get cut. He has a high cap number. Also no safety gave up more touchdowns in primary coverage he is the safety that needs to be replaced.
No chance we trade all those premium picks for a CB. You compare Rhodes to Sherman but you dont mention Sherman was a 5th round pick.
Gone- Goldson, Moss
Cut- Whitner, Rogers, Akers, Harlason
Sign- CB- Aqib Talib 3 yrs, 24m and SS- William Moore 5 yrs, 30m
1. FS- Jonathan Cyprien, Florida Int
2a. NT- John Jenkins, Georgia
2b. CB- Logan Ryan, Rutgers
3a. DE- Margas Hunt, SMU
3b. WR- Ryan Swope, Texas A&M
Moore will be re-signed now that the Falcons have cleared cap room by cutting Abraham, Turner, and Dunta Robinson. Also, Hunt will be long gone by the third round…
Jordan I agree with you we don’t give all those picks up for a quarterback that’s ridiculous. I like your picks I like Ryan Swope I think in the fourth round like to get another wide receiver. There’s a lot of good ones in this draft. I like Dobson from Marshall University to probably be gone. But I know to be a lot other good wide receivers of a fourth-round. I would mind it could all tide and either. I think in the lower rounds we need to find a kicker and a quarterback. I keep most of the picks we could use a backup center in the for the future. In the lower rounds of course.
Mark
Jordan I agree with you we don’t give all those picks up for a corner back that’s ridiculous. I like your picks I like Ryan Swope I think in the fourth round like to get another wide receiver. There’s a lot of good ones in this draft. I like Dobson from Marshall University to he will probably be gone. But I know there are other good wide receivers of a fourth round. I would mind a tall tight end either. I think in the lower rounds we need to find a kicker and a quarterback. I keep most of the picks we could use a backup center in the for the future. In the lower rounds of course.
Mark
Margas Hunt – NO
Ryan Swope – NO way
That was very good. My mock was more of a best case scenario.
They would most likely be lucky to have an opportunity to draft all of those picks Though. Should have four third round picks.
I like this -don’t know about Hunt being there in the third -big on Logan Ryan -quality and character.Ryan Swope is a guy I took a bit of heat on a few days ago when I picked him-i.e. small hands,gauntlet performance ,et.al to which I quote”the film,the film ,the film”-I predict he will be a winner!
Grant very interesting predictions. I’ve been pushing the Culliver move for a about a month now. One area i disagree with is i believe one way or another they will draft\sign someone who can either collapse the pocket or get after the QB.
Thank you. I’ve always like your Culliver idea.
Logan can push the pocket. Thomas can get after the QB.
I like Thomas but will Harbaugh draft a player from Stanford?
I like Chase Thomas – high motor guy with outstanding work ethic
I’d rather see a vet replace Rogers then any rookie especially for another SB run this year. Cromartie or Grimes would be perfect upgrades.
If you draft and mold your own talent then reward them for playing well , why not just sign Goldson ? I thought he played awesome. Whitner is a great spokesman but wasn’t he more of a liability then Goldson ?
Cromardie won’t tackle (wrap up), he just throws his shoulders into people and he’s not exactly bringing the wood. NOT a Niner fit.
grant love ur stuff but ur dead wrong. We need to build from the inside out not the outside in
Noseguard and RDE needs before corner
Does it bother anyone that Delanie Walker drops almost 25% of the passes that come his way?
I would resign Goldson and CUT Whitner, and sign a replacement for Whitner who can COVER. Goldson and Whitner doesnt work anymore, because both are big hitting guys who cant cover great. CUtting Whitner saves $4.5 million.
I would keep Parys Haralson and move Aldon back to a rotation guy. Aldon Smith, until proven otherwise, is not an every down guy. He was invisibile for the final two months of the season.
This team needs young stud Dlinemen to push the incumbents, they need a corner, they need a safety
Yes, he has that history. But after they put him on the Jugs machine, he improved. And he had a good SB. They’ve made it clear he’s a cog in their offense. If he leaves, they will have to find someone who does a lot of things, with his speed. I hope they lock him up.
there is a kid out of Virginia. Runs well.
6’3 228lbs I think. Name is Davis. Reminds alot of Walker when he came into the league but more fluid. A guy I like is SF h-back spot is Reese. The guy can ball. He can Block, He can catch. He can run and he keeps his mouth Shut
I would be very disappointed if they made that trade, I’d much rather grab BPA at 31 and Jamar Taylor, who is a much better press man corner, at 34. Like the Hawthorne and Markus Wheaton picks though.
Its nice seeing someone else highly values Taylor. He seems like a great pick that will be there for us in the 2nd rd.
No need to move down for a DB. This draft is deeper there than at any spot in the draft. Besides, Rhodes is not that good. Don’t go all Al Davis over his combine workout. I’ve seen him play a few times. It doesn’t translate
Mathieu has moved into the 2-3 rd range after the combine according to NFL network. But the 49ers should do WHATEVER they need to do get him. He looked head and shoulders over EVERYBODY in field drills. His ball skills are thru the roof. Plus, he solves our PR problem. He also has a personal ringing endorsement from Deion Sanders as a starting DB
Same goes with Matt Scott. Earlier, he could have been had for a 5th- 7th, but now I’m not so sure. He turned a lot of heads at the senior bowl, and did the same thing at the combine. If he’s still there in the 4th, take him.
Grant, something that I don’t think has been brought up enough. Why did Harbaugh let Sherman go by him 5 times without drafting him in 2011
I’m guessing it had to do w/ RS’s personality more than his physical talents… Sherman has a BIG mouth that never seems to stop running. Harbaugh probably had heard more than enough of it from their time at Stanford. I know I’m sick of him running his mouth already.
If Goldson leaves as a FA don’t we get a comp pick?
I’ve found my own answer and it’s yes. So we’d probably get a third rounder if he signs somewhere else.
I think it would also depend on other f/a acquisitions and loses, but in theory, yes they would. Also, does it not apply to next years draft?
Don’t see an OT to replace Leonard Davis.
that’s probably because Davis is a guard.
Davis sucks anyway. He’s a monster, but absolutely no foot speed or dexterity anymore. I saw him miss more blocks and hit air or the ground than anything last year. I sure hope we have better developmental young guys to do his job.
Fredrickson out of Wisconsin in the 3rd and they have Looney who was hurt all of last year. Supposed to be a mauler. See if he can play this year. Winters in 4th is also a pick I like Another interesting scenario is drafting Jones and Fredrickson as well as winters.
The heavy formation would have close to seven starting cliber lineman on it.
Why would we trade 3 top 100 picks for a corner when they could draft David Amerson in round 2 and get a better ballhawk. If you go up that high we should target star or Richardson. Like the culliver move. People only see the Super Bowl but was solid all year
We need to keep DG, and they wont cut or get rid of whitner. Talib would be good but what Talib are we getting, that one that pkays good 70% of the time or the one that plays like hes in youth football 30% of the time?!…. also why u think tyrann mathieu is lasting till the 4th?
I like Delanie and Goldson but would not break the bank for either of them. If I were another team’s GM, Delanie’s drops and Goldson’s so-so cover skills would dampen my enthusiasm. Give both guys fair offers and let them try to better them elsewhere.
I’d cut Whitner or ask him to take a pay cut after his terrible Super Bowl performance. Scary to start the season with new safties, but I’d pick up two or three safeties in free agency or the draft.
I wouldn’t trade up unless there’s somebody they think is fantastic value at #14 or so. Probably better to get a couple of guys at the end of the first round in this deep draft.
No way they get rid of Haralson he is to valuable at stopping the run. plus it gives the 9ers the chance to rest Aldon smith if need be. He is a key piece to the defence i do not think they get rid of him. Get rid of Haggins instead.
Parys Haralson is due to make $2.8M this season, that’s way too much for a back-up 34 OLB.. he needs to either take a major paycut or look for work elsewhere.
Good call.
Haggans is already gone from Cap situation.
There’s no pressing need to cut Haralson if the Niners let Goldson walk.
I would rather keep Haralson.
By cutting Akers and Manningham they would save just under $7m. Throw in the $8.5m from trading Smith and they quickly have about $16.5.
@Jack can the team cut Manningham before he passes a physical? From what i’m hearing he wo’nt be able to pass one untill possibly as late as Aug. 1
I don’t know about that OC. Grant, do you have the answer?
I think they can cut him whenever they want, but I’m not sure.
Why cut Manningham? He was doing good for us last season before the injury. Keep him on and build the secondary starting with goldson.
I believe that if they cut him before he passes a physical, the 49ers would have to pay him an injury settlement. I don’t know what effect that would have on the salary cap.
I just googled injured players rights. From what i could understand you can waive an injured player but the team still has to meet all their contractual obligations [as if he was still playing for the team] untill the player can pass a football physical.
With Aldon Smith not costing much on his rookie contract still, Parys Haralson’s $2.8M salary should be easily carried this season.
I agree and likely with his age, he wouldn’t be worth much to other teams, so perhaps he would take a restructured pay cut to stay.
Grant,
I like the mock. If Delanie is lured away in FA, Chris Harper of KSU is a name to keep an eye on. He is a former Oregon QB that transferred to KSU and became a WR. He has the build (234 lbs.) to out muscle CB’s and the speed to burn LB’s. He could be the Swiss Army knife type of player that Walker has become. I do hope that Walker is re-signed though, he is extremely versatile despite the dropped passes.
Chris Culliver is too immature and too big a dope to be the starting free Safety. This draft is DEEP with great Safeties.. I’d rather draft a rookie Safety than move Culliver. My personal favorite is LSU’s Eric Reid.. he’s a Goldson/Landry hybrid.. the kid can play centerfield and he likes to hit stuff. If not Reid, then former Niner Tim McDonald’s son T.J. The kid is a specimen, coach him up and we’ve got an enforcer in the secondary for the next decade.
Really? You think he is the only athlete that makes dumb remarks?
Culliver will be fine as a CB or a safety. In any case, the coaching staff will make that determination and they’ve proved to be right more often than not.
I love McDonald’s instincts, and hitting ability. The problem is he reminds me of Taylor Mays in coverage. Not good. There was talk at USC of moving him to OLB. They never did, but if the 49ers draft him, they should move him there. I think he could be a star
Yeah i think they should draft a safety instead of a WR.
After the 74th pick, the 49ers should have an own pick at the end of the 3rd, possibly with a compensatory right behind it. Was there a trade I overlooked? A bit confusing. I’ll re-read it.
“The 49ers trade the 31st pick, the 34th pick and the 94th pick to the Chargers ” OOoppps, I get it now. Never mind. :)
As for the FA section…
- Leonard Davis, Tramaine Brock and Ted Ginn Jr. are gone. Not sure about Cox.
- Culliver was a college safety, but he seems too dang dumb to play NFL safety.
- The 49ers will let either Sopoaga or RJF go… but not both.
- The 49ers will let either Goldson or Whitner go… but not both.
(The 49ers could let Goldson test the market again, then sign him when he crawls back.)
- Haralson and Grant get re-signed after reduced contracts. If not they will start for other teams in 2013.
The CB to watch in free agency is Miami’s Sean Smith.. he’s 6-3, very aggressive and he’s 25 years old.. he hasn’t even hit his prime yet. I’d try to sign this kid, push Rogers or Brown to the nickel and Culliver to the dime.
In the draft, you aren’t going to see much of a drop off in talent from 2nd – 4th rounds at the CB spot, so the Niners don’t have to mortgage half their draft to trade into the 11 spot. The Niners can draft a future starter at CB anywhere before the 5th round. Plus, when you play on the best defense in the league, every player looks better than they actually are. Depth in the DL and LB will help the CBs more than anything.
Smith is who I would target as well. He brings the size and press coverage capabilites that can help against the bigger WR in the league. People need to relax on Culliver. He’s a 2nd year player that had some bad games at bad times. Statistically he was a top 10 corner for much of last season. Everyone needs to take the bad pass rush in to consideration when they look at his play. No corner can cover forever while a QB is allowed to run around.
Is Xavier Rhodes the best cornerback in the draft? http://www.bucsnation.com/2013/2/28/4041520/2013-nfl-draft-is-xavier-rhodes-the-best-cornerback-in-the-draft
Your entire article turned me off after you suggested making Chris Culliver a starter. I’ve met him, he’s not that much bigger than I am.. keep him at CB, draft a Safety.
Culliver is 6-0, 200 pounds. Ed Reed is 5-11, 205 pounds. Earl Thomas is 5-10, 202 pounds.
Matt Waldman thinks he has the potential to be the best.
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2012/11/24/futures-fsu-cb-xavier-rhodes/
Come on are we really comparing stats at the college level? Outside of Clemson there isn’t much WR talent in the ACC especially when compared to the SEC.
Florida State and Miami usually are not chopped liver in the wide receiver department. Last I looked, they are in the ACC.
Yeah and Xavier Rhodes plays on Florida State so there are what maybe two teams in the ACC with quality wrs that he could have faced? I still think Miami is debatable too.
Rhodes faced Florida State’s receivers every day in practice.
Well considering how I’m merely debating how useful those stats are, I don’t see how thats relevant. Xavier Rhodes is a great prospect, doesn’t mean hes the best one. I’d take Milliner and probably Trufant over him unless he surprises me at the 3 cone at his pro day.
Check this link that lists how many All-Pros for each conference for the last 10 years, interesting results. ACC is better at producing ‘studs’ than we think.
http://www.rockmnation.com/2012/8/2/3216010/mythbusting-the-sec-a-follow-up
I can’t get it to accept a hyperlink, what up?
tkamB:
Read the Waldman article (or rather the analysis linked to in the Waldman article). It’s an analysis of Rhodes’ skills based on film study.
Great link. I liked the analysis. As the writer said, you can’t quantify everything, but its a good breakdown.
I like Dashon Goldson and Delanie Walker, but I’d let them both walk before I overpay for them. The Niners are fortunate that the draft happens to be very deep at the Safety and tightEnd positions. The Niners can find a suitable replacement for Goldson anywhere in the 2nd to 4th rounds; Walker’s replacement/upgrade can be found 4th-6th rounds. I’d actually like to see the Niners draft a 6-6 basketball player to play TE for us, imitate what NE has at TE.
Excellent, Grant! Love it.
I agree a lot with one of the other guys above…
OUT:
-Dashon Goldson or Whitner, but they need one to stay. I suspect they will let Golson go and have Culliver as the back up plan if they don’t get a workable safety in the draft.
-Isaac Sopoaga, but keep Ricky Jean Francois because he’s not a starter. He’s a great utility guy, but not likely to get starter money elsewhere, so I bet we can resign cheap. If the Packers sign him or not, the Niners seriously need a starting NT through the draft or free agency. Maybe Henry Melton (although he’ll be costly) or get Seattle’s previously injured Jason Jones.
-Leonard Davis, Tramaine Brock, Clark Haggans and Ted Ginn Jr.
CUT: Perrish Cox. agreed
POSITION CHANGE: Chris Culliver becomes the starting free safety, I agree depending on their draft of a safety or CB to fill in accordingly.
RE-SIGNED: Delanie Walker, Tavares Gooden, Larry Grant-doubtful he’ll get a starting contract, if it didn’t happen last year and why bet on a rookie to fill in?
I keep hearing how bad Culliver is and how bad Rogers is or how bad Whitner was. How in the hell did we win 11 games in the regular season then come 5 yards from winning the SB with all these players who arent very good? i understand cap casulties. but i think there is just a little bit of an over reaction by the fans to losing the SB. All i’ve been saying is we need to add depth and 1 situational pass rusher and we will be back in the SB.
This.
OC,
you are correct. Although stats are difficult to ignore. Whitner was terrible this last year. While he can punish a ball carrier, he is not so effective guarding receivers and tight ends.
As for Culliver, he dropped off at the same time our pass rush dropped off. Direct correlation? Don’t know. However, if I am an OC, next year I go after Culliver on deep routes all day until he proves he can stop them. He was truly that bad in the last five games or so.
@Bay you may be right but untill the pass rush returns to its pre Smith injury level i believe its impossible to truely judge the DB’s. Of course this is coming from an old DB i may be a little biased
OC,
I was a DB too. I missed a tackle that led to the only 99 yard touchdown ever surrendered in school history.
I’m famous.
@ Jack:
Maybe you want to re-rethink your position on Okafor.
http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/27/pass-rushers-pt1/
Although I don’t know what will be revealed in part 2 of the analysis, Okafor certainly seems to compare favorably to the other pass rushers in this draft.
Thanks for the link Claude. What should I re-think about?
My memory was that you initially suggested that the 49ers draft Okafor in the first round, but later backed off in favor of [can't remember name]. Given how favorably he compares to other available pass rushers, Okafor in the first/early second isn’t a horrible idea. Of course, the 49ers would have to figure out where to play him, but he’d get on the field in obvious pass rush situations.
Oh yeah. I still put him on my watch list on my last post. Interesting to see how well he could handle playing inside in the Nickle/Dime sets.
Jack:
The stats suggest that he’s better from the outside, but there would be no harm in letting him try from the inside. Then again, even if Okafor isn’t as effective from the inside, we know that Aldon Smith can rush from the DT position, so a front four of Brooks, Smith, Smith and Okafor could be potent.
I see you workin there Claude. That could work, kinda like what the Giants have done recently.
The rapid automatic refresh events make reading this blog a pain. I’ve been through three of them and never got to the end of the blog entries. What gives Grant?
Yeah, I just lost a comment. I wonder if Grant saw me posting and went “Nah, I don’t need anything from him!”
Suggestion: I have found it useful to use your mouse to save what you right.
write
I agree and think Grant’s next poll should be whether or not we’d vote to remove that damned auto-refresh… it’s the main reason I don’t post more.
ESPN article on Walsh’s hiring of Paraag Marathe and the use of sports analytics in the draft.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/92704/nerds-revenge-their-win-probability-is-up
1) I had no idea Walsh hired Marathe.
2) How does a hack organization like ESPN have a reporter as good as Sando?
Nice scenario Grant. I would go for two WR’ in the draft rather then just one.
Thanks. I was tempted give the Niners Stedman Bailey in the third round instead of Gerald Hodges. Bailey reminds me of Greg Jennings.
How about a little outside the box dreaming for the future?
The primary needs this year are S and/or CB and DT, right? WR too, but there are some free agents and boom or bust candidates in the draft, so there’s opportunity to get them later in the draft.
If none of these guys are a sure fire candidates over another, why not get what you can from this year by packaging multiple late round picks to move up in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th or whatever rounds, but use this years 2nd, 3rd maybe 5th to trade with another team for their 1st and 2nd maybe 4th for next year, getting ready to trade both 1st and 2nd round picks (four total) with whomever has the number one pick for next year and get: Jadeveon Clowney the DE fro South Carolina?
TRADE: 2nd (from KC), 3rd (Niner’s) and a 5th and perhaps more late rounders for 1st and 2nd from Jets (or whomever) for next year.
KEEP: 1st, 2nd and Niner 3rd, plus package other late round picks to improve their 3rd and 4th round picks since there’s no way even 8 guys could stay on the team from one draft class.
THEN: Use 1st (Niner), 1st (Jets or whomever), 2nd (Niner) and maybe a 3rd or their other 2nd or what have you to move into #1 and get Clowney!
Niners would still have adequate draft position for talent this year and certainly be well on their way to continued excellence!
Just a teaser thought for the future.
Grant, your approach seems to take care of the secondary, except for Whitner, which I know has already been mentioned. Do you think they will go after someone like Woodson as a stop-gap?
Also, don’t you think they will also be looking for an eventual replacement for Jason Smith?
Last point: I would not be surprised if they have some agreement in place with Philadelphia. It is not farfetched to believe there may be a shoe to drop in their letting Gamble go before the draft.
If I were building a defense from scratch, I would start with a good pass DE/OLB rusher or good cornerback. In this regard the mock makes sense as long as Xavier Rhodes is good as advertized.
But if I were to give up the three picks, that would make me want to retain Sopoaga and/or RJF. If both are gone, who would rookie Logan compete with? Williams? Tukuafu? A later draft pick?
Been thinking alot about “shut down corners” (see comments in prev article). With all the 3 receiver sets, I might use cap capital for a deep cornerback squad instead. Would you rather have an…
1) A+ corner, B- corner and C- corner to cover slot
or
2) B corner, B+ corner and B corner to cover slot
If the A+ guy was a rare true shut down player that could play with NO safety help, I might choose option one. If not, I’d go with option 2.
We need to RJF and Issac.
Keep MM..Cut Moss, Use LMJ as a slot receiver.
Cut Goldson and sign a smart safety. He always get those stupid PI’s at the wrong time.
Maybe trade nahmidi?
I keep seeing projections from random internet people that Xavier Rhodes is better suited as a safety. “Too stiff in the hips” and such.
No idea if that is accurate or ridiculous.
Carlos Rogers has Value! What if we trade him for cap room and draft position?
His contract isn’t too big for someone who wants a guy one year removed from Pro Bowl selection and he was an alternate for the Pro Bowl in 2013 as well.
Philly could use him if they let Asomugha go.
Chip Kelly might also like to have James.
George- I’m sure Harbaugh wants James too, no way we let that guy go, way too dynamic of a player.
I am sure he does, but keep in mind that Philly has the fourth pick. We could do alot with that. Yes, James is a talent, but they could probably replace him.
George,
Why would the Eagles give up the 4th overall pick in the draft for James? That doesn’t make sense from a value standpoint and it ignores the fact that the Eagles already have LeSean McCoy, who they gave over $20 million in guaranteed money to just last year.
I am not suggesting they would ever give up their fourth pick for just James. Of course there would have to be more. But assume we would like the fourth pick. What would we be willing to give up? I think we would have to consider including James if they were asking for him. He is not irreplaceable. Keep in mind that Philly has a new head coach and that they are rebuilding. I could see them wanting draft picks and good players. There has been discussion here about dealing Rogers. Philly might want him if they sever ties with Asomugha. They might also consider Kilgore or Looney. Do we really need both of them this year? This is all speculation.
Grant – Draft prognostications are for fun? Aren’t they? I have to say that I think you’ve rated Xaiver Rhodes too high. He could slide to the second half of the 1st round. I disagree with cutting Carlos Rodgers. I would move Carlos to free safety allowing Dashon Goldson to strong safety. Rodgers could excel at free safety a la Antralle Rolle did in Arizona and later in New York. The deep cover lapses seem to be the lack of coverage skill on the part of Donte Whitner.
New: Goodbye:
Hankins 1st two down run stuffer Sapooga
Trufant 2nd best CB available Rodgers
Cyprien 2nd loves to hit Whitner
Fredericks 3rd road grader Davis
Ryans 3rd steal here Coxs
Gholston 3rd Freal athlete Jean fran
Winters 3rd road grader Kilgore
Mcdonald 4th loves to hit Mcbath
Washington 5th freak skills Haggens
Davis 5th new position Celek
Robinson 6th Ginn
Geathers 6th develpment Williams
Kruegar 7th Harbaugh type
Mauti 7th special teams Grant
Klien 7th QB
Free agents:
Jackson Jacobs
Dorsey Williams
Freeney
trades
revis
The main thing missing here is there seems to be an assumption that all of these picks are ready to go replacements and that would be a terrible mistake.
Also, we can’t expect the Niners to empty the safety position of both pro bowlers and start over with rookies. One of the two have to stay at least.
Otherwise, very cleaver breakdown.
I hope we get the best kicker ,cb,safety and Dt possible.. throw in lattimore ,honey bagger,denard Robinson and that’s a great draft!
Grant, if you think that both Sopoaga and RJF are gone, who do you suppose will start at NT for the Niners? I don’t think anyone on their current roster. Wouldn’t you think they’d trade up and get a NT instead of a corner?
Only thing I liked about your predictions is Culliver at safety.
Almost a shame the Niners are so stacked at O-line. There are some good players that will drop because this draft will be so defense heavy.
On the running note, are trio of LJM, Hunter and Dixon really the long term answer for when Gore retires? They all seem to be specialists that telegraph to defenses what to of run to expect. Don’t be surprised if the 49ers grab an “every down running back” with power.
I think the Niners should find a way to get Dwayne Bowe from the Chiefs. Then they screw Alex again! Seriously though, don’t you miss having a big body receiver like terrell owens, John Taylor, etc? I like Moss, and it seems they either don’t look to him, or there are so many close plays, like the deep ball in the Miami game where they DB held him the whole time.
Oh yeah, Alex did throw him a deep ball in the Giants game.
It would be great to see Colin just sling it deep like Aaron Rodgers.
“I think the Niners should find a way to get Dwayne Bowe from the Chiefs. Then they screw Alex again!”
That got a chuckle.
The 49ers need to ditch Carlos Rogers and go with rookie defensive backs. The last time the 49ers started three rookie defensive backs was 1981. Bill Walsh started Ronnie Lott, Eric Wright and Carlton Williamson. The 49ers went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl.
Well, there’s rookie defensive backs. And then there’s *those* rookie defensive backs you listed, Grant. The only thing is common is that they are rookies.
Yeah, Ronnie was what? 3rd or 4th overall? Eric was #2nd Rdr? And they really started looking good when Fred Dean arrived a few games in.
OK then, I’m still advocating Tim McDonald’s kid at FS :)
Grant,
What made the 49ers’ ’81 secondary so remarkable, besides how good they were, was that three of them were rookies. I haven’t researched it, but I don’t believe any other team has won a super bowl with three rookie starting DBs.
Given that, it seems having three rookies starting in the secondary is something to be avoided for a SB contender.
Are you predicting that the Chargers are going to sign a LT in FA Grant because that is the only way I can them trading the 11th pick. The LT position definitely needs to be addressed and there are three great choices in this draft.
Sure, the Chargers could sign a left tackle. There is Andre Smith, Jake Long, Sebastian Vollmer, Jermon Bushrod and Brandon Albert.
Also, if the Dolphins fail to sign Mike Wallace, the 49ers could trade up with them at No.12.
One possibility is offering them Staley for that pick and more. I know Staley is good, but they could move in Boone. Look at what he accomplished in his first year as a right guard. He could be better as a tackle. At right guard we could move in Looney.
Staley is the highest rated run blocker in the NFL by multiple rating systems. He’s even a top 10 pass blocking Tackle, it’s just when he gets beat, it’s usually a whiff and results in a sack, thus the undeserved negative attetion he gets sometimes from Niner fans. Other than Goodwin, everybody on the OL is ‘locked’ in.
I get that about Staley, but what I remember about Boone when he was backup tackle, was that he was the tackle who did best in defending Aldon Smith in training camp. Boone is being wasted at right guard. If we traded Staley now, we would get a lot for him which could be used in this draft or the next one.
Grant,
I like all your picks…but there’s no way Chase Thomas is on the board in the 5th rd. You’re also minus 2 very experienced DL and replacing them with…a rookie? Even worse, you didn’t sign a FA DL or CB. You kept Akers. With so many picks, getting a good K is pretty easy. Use that cap space to bring in a DL and/or CB. Baalke could also trade down to get more 2nd, 3rd and/or 4th rd picks. Or trade some picks to get a DL or CB. Tons of options, and it’s virtually impossible to figure out what he’ll do. But, that’s part of the fun…
Thanks Frank.
I expect the 49ers to draft a kicker in the sixth or seventh round.
Two free agent cornerbacks the 49ers should take a look at are Antoine Cason and Keenan Lewis.
I think Keenan Lewis would fit the mould of what the 49ers look for in a CB.
Could see them signing a K from FA too… lots of viable options available if they don’t like any kickers in the draft. Rob Bironas, Phil Dawson, Shayne Graham, Nate Kaeding, etc.
This is horrible a 2 year old would of done better. SMH
Then do so already.
My mock 49ers off-season:
TRADE: Alex Smith
RE-SIGN: Delanie Walker, Isaac Sopoaga (I’m starting to think there won’t be that big a market out there for him. I think 49ers re-sign him as veteran insurance if he doesn’t get much play in FA).
OUT: Dashon Goldson, Ricky Jean Francois, Larry Grant, Leonard Davis, Tramaine Brock, Clark Haggans, Tavares Gooden and Ted Ginn Jr.
CUT: Carlos Rogers
SIGN: Keenan Lewis, Kenny Phillips, Antwan Barnes, Sammie Lee Hill (if Sopoaga signs elsewhere), Josh Johnson, Jason Campbell.
DRAFT:
- Assumes 49ers get 3rd round comp pick + 2 7ths
- Trade 49ers 1st (31) + 49ers 3rd (95) + Miami 6th for 1st (24)
- Trade Chiefs 2nd rounder (34) for a high 40s pick + 4th rounder
- Trade 49ers 2nd rounder (61) + 4th rounder in previous trade + 49ers 5th for a high 50s pick
- Trade Panthers 3rd rounder (74) + 49ers 4th rounder for early 3rd/ late 2nd
- Trade 49ers and Cincy 7ths for a higher pick in the 7th round
1 (24). Kawann Short, DT/DE
2 (early 40s). Jonathan Cyprien, S
2 (early 50s). Markus Wheaton, WR
Late 2nd/ early 3rd. Robert Alford, CB
3 (comp). John Bostic, ILB
5 (Indy pick). Nick Kasa, TE
6 (49ers pick). Dustin Hopkins, K
7 (from trade of 49ers and Cincy 7ths). Mark Harrison, WR
7 (comp). OL camp body
7 (comp). DL camp body
Forgot to add Akers to list of cuts.
Me too. Good work on your mock. Very clever and creative.
Thanks Grant. I’m definitely leaning towards the idea of trying to come away with as many players in the top 64 picks as possible, including one in the top 25. That would add a nice infusion of talent to the team.
If 49ers get a 4th round comp pick rather than 3rd round, I reckon the strategy can stay the same, and take someone like Gerald Hodges in the 4th instead of John Bostic.
Like your mock Scooter
The only thing I would say is…
3 (comp). John Bostic, ILB
– this guy is a stud. I suspect he will be gone in round 2. But if there 3 sure
5 (Indy pick). Nick Kasa, TE
– I can care less about a TE. I think we shoul resign Walker even for a little more then worth. Hope he is a team player.
6 (49ers pick). Dustin Hopkins, K
– I like this kicker the best if this is the FSU kid. Someone may reach for him. I think it should be us in 5 instead of 6 (your TE)
I think Bostic will go in the 3rd. As to whether he lasts until the end of the round I don’t know. If he doesn’t, there are other ILB options, such as Gerald Hodges.
I think they should and will re-sign Walker, but I think drafting another TE isn’t a bad option as well. Kasa is a good athlete that is a solid blocking TE and can help immediately on special teams.
Scooter,
You are nails with the offseason stuff. Good job
Love the Cully to saftey/get Rhodes move! Only concern there is can Cully hit? The other moves are practical. Don’t know much about the particular players you’ve selected, but the positions are in order to meet our needs. Further, HarBlakee never get the exact players we want anyway. I would love to get the Honeybadger in the mid rounds. If he stays focus, he has great potential.
Cull over did play safety in college and did a pretty good job, so that’s a possibility. However I don’t see the team moving up to get a Corner. This draft is deep. If culliver bumps to free safety, I see whitner getting cut and drafting a good cover strong safety in the second (Elam). Or a solid corner that could convert (David amerson). Either way, first rnd pick is going to be an NT(short or Jenkins) or a DE (Okeafor). WR will come later (da’Rick Rodgers). Then we will take BPA/PON combo strategy, as well as trading 2013s for 2014s.
A bright side… if the 49ers lose Goldson, Sopoaga, Ricky Jean Francois and Walker to big contracts, and do little signing big contract FAs, they will get a nice 2014 compensatory along with KCs 2014 2-3rd and any trade forward draft slots from 2013. 2014 could be almost as loaded as 2013.
yes then give up the farm for, Marqise Lee
yes then give up the farm for,
Marqise LeeJadeveon Clowney.The problem with moving Culliver to safety is that we’re not sure he can make the transition seamlessly, because the defensive decision making process is so different. But I don’t have a problem with the concept. If Goldson can’t be re-signed, I’d prefer signing an established free agent and drafting a safety. Much as I like him as a person, I’d let Whitner go unless he takes a pay cut; he was awful in the Super Bowl.
I agree. Not sure if this thought process came out of the fans/media or the coaching staff. I think Cully has made significant progress over the past 2 years at CB. He is big and rangy. I know he said some stupid stuff and hopefully he doesn’t become the village idiot.
But feel we build on his (Cully) talent, continue to to develop Brock and draft some competition.
Cully to safety is interesting. I want to sign Dashon though. If he can’t make it happen then Cyprien in second and Spillman should do the trick. But get Dashon back. Redo some contracts if needed. He sets the trend back there.
I don’t want to jump up and grab anyone but a Deon Sanders or Revis…minus contract or deva issues for both. If we jump up we need to grab TDs… so offense WR. But we might be able to get that later. Will Patterson be around mid rounds??
Another thought is Frank Gore’s replacement. Are people scared of Lattimore’s health. We he slip to one of our second round picks??? Maybe we spend one of the round 2 or 3 picks on a future 3 down back…!!!
Lattimore will fall to atleast the 3rd round, maybe even 4th. If the niners were able to get him in the 4th I would be thrilled! Not many teams have the plethora of picks the niners have and such a deep roster that they can afford to have a 3rd/4th round pick not even suit up until 2014. Also like to see the Honey Badger in the 3rd.
Man the most frustrating thing is the niners refusal to pay goldson. This dude is the leader of our secondary and a beast. How many years does he have to prove himself. I feel sorry for him. Every year they ask him to prove his worth and he does. Receivers get alligator arms after watching tape on him. I’d rather get rid of whitner if i had to make a choice between the two. Whitner has blown coverage too many times in crucial moment. Dallas OT loss, Saints playoff game against graham, Ravens. Advanced stats say goldson isn’t the best in coverage. Some traits can’t be read in a stat sheet. Goldson has that “it” factor and has improved every season.
Totally agree. He has been an all prod the past 2 years. I would take him for close to Weddle contract PLUS 1-2 personal falls a game.
Pay the man 6-8 per year and ask Justin Smith and Carlos Rogers to adjust their contracts. Then draft some young guys in the mid rounds.
Guys… we were a redzone play away from winning the Superbowl. Keep the core players in tact. I can part ways with Whitner, but I can also argue for him while we develop young guys.
I would love to keep Goldson if the niners can AFFORD to keep him. In order to keep him they should let the starters in the secondary go who are the liabilities (Whitner and Rogers). Let these two guys go. Retain Goldson. And move Culliver to safety. Maybe Goldson or Culliver would be able to play SS. Then draft a corner and sign a free agent corner.
Dollars to doughnuts they re-sign both Goldson and Walker, and probably keep Gooden as well.
While I fully expect them to upgrade the secondary, either through an unheralded FA or 2 or even three picks, I think their emphasis will be D-line. That’s the root of the problem. They’ll let Sopoaga and Jean Francois both go, and spend their remaining FA money on an unheralded NT who can really move the pile. Maybe even add a good support guy as well to go to more of a rotation on the line, so the studs aren’t so whipped by the playoffs. Then I think they’ll also draft a couple of DL in mid-late rounds they think they can groom.
The upshot is, they’ll essentially address the big need – DL – in FA and support it in the draft, which will free the upper picks for WR and secondary upgrades.
That’s just my guess. Harbaalke always seem to do the unexpected.
I like the idea of moving Culliver to safety. However, Whitner is a huge liability in coverage. I think they should try and trade or release him. At $5 million dollars next year, it is money wasted for a safety who can’t cover. Also Carlos Rogers should be cut or try to trade him. He and Whitner make the most money in the secondary and are the largest liabilities. Move Culliver to safety, sign a free agent corner and draft a safety and another db. I like the Honey Badger in the 3rd or 4th round.
Seems pretty realistic. I think they’ll keep either Sopoaga or Francois though…not sure which one. I’m not sure they would get rid of both Goldson and Rogers as well…probably one of them. I think they’re two top needs are DT and CB. Your total number of draft picks is about what I was thinking as well…I think any more than 8 will result in wasted picks due to training camp cuts.
Baalke trades down for Eagles 2014 first round draft pick
2. Jesse Williams DE
2. Quintan Patton WR
3. David Amerson CB
3. HoneyBadger CB
4. Landry Jones QB
5. Kevin Reddick ILB
6. Dustin Hopkins K
Trade Matt Scott at 4th an I’m down with it.
It looks like Damontre Moore’s stock is dropping. Unless he impresses teams on his pro day next week, he may drop to the end of the 1st or top of the 2nd round. The nock on him at the combine was his strength (only 12 reps on the bench press). I think that can be addressed. The guy has the talent to be s stud pass rusher.
*knock
All correct, but I think his 40 time was disappointing too. Maybe 4.78? I can’t recall exactly, but Polian thought the two issues together were problematic. That and the strength question could make him drop as you said.
I have no idea who the 49ers will pick. I have a pretty good idea how they conduct drafts and choose players.
When conducting the draft the 49ers tend to…
- Avoid risks in round one. They will refuse trade-back offers and will stand pat for fear of losing a coveted first rounder (Jenkins, Aldon). Will also trade late picks to move up a just few spaces in round one to ensure getting their guy (A. Davis).
- Take far more risks in rounds 2-7, frequently trading back, up or forward to the following season.
- Don’t care of people think they “reached” for a player.
- Are patient with trades, making few pre-draft moves.
- Are deliberately deceptive about players they covet.
- Rely on input from special teams coaches.
When choosing players the 49ers tend to…
- Spend first round picks on steady players with proven productivity.
- Spend second round picks on athletic developmental players that will either star or flop.
- Value players with proven productivity and good film over combine stars.
- Trust in house evaluations over the NFL consensus.
- Covet players with a “passion for the game”, “natural football instincts” and athleticism.
- Paraag Marathe “There is a much wider disparity between players’ psychological makeup than between their differences in physical makeup.”
- Don’t ask “how good is this player?” but rather “how much can this player help the 49ers win?”
- Draft athletes to play different positions.
- Tend to draft bigger, physical players (KH, LMJ and AJJ exceptions)
- Draft for function, not necessarily position.
Does your mock fit the 49ers draft personality?
That’s pretty much bang on Brodie. But I think with round 1 they are willing to take risks (i.e., a player that others may not perceive as a sure thing) – they just don’t like to leave a draft without believing they’ve taken a player with a “1st round grade”. Aldon Smith and AJ Jenkins are good examples of this – most people thought they reached quite a bit for both players. Steady players aren’t the requirement – it’s the “athletic talent”. Again, Smith and Jenkins are good examples, as are Iupati and Anthony Davis. Athletic talents but not necessarily “steady” producers in college.
They covet athletes that are willing to work hard at their craft above all else. No matter the round. Production in college is important – but really is it how they look on film. The film, the film, the film.
Good stuff Brodie and Scooter.
Thanks msclemons67 and Scooter
My observations are not a crystal ball. That’s for sure. It’s certain the 49ers will occasionally break the draft tendencies listed above.
The reason for listing the 49ers draft tendencies was to aid people making the mocks… so they can ask themselves “I like this player, but will Baalke?”
Its a “Know thine drafter” thing.
I think that’s a good list. I would add one to it: They don’t seem to be afraid to gamble on players with health concerns. So you have Crabs with a chronic foot issue early, Aldon Smith had a broken leg, if I recall correctly, and Cam Johnson plummeted in the draft because of Sickle-Cell – and I think he was considered too small or something, I don’t remember now.
They don’t seem to have a problem looking past health issues. Even Gore back in the day was questionable coming out of college.
Our scouting must be fairly unorthodox compared to other teams. It’s seems like, for whatever reason, over the last decade the team is fairly unpredictable in the draft. This one will probably be the same way. Who saw Aldon Smith or CK coming? Pretty much a blindside. Remains to be seen if AJ Jenkins picks up. Receiver seems to be the one weakness we have in the draft these last several years.
I just happened to run across this. Interesting: http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/3/2/4055550/2013-nfl-draft-matt-malaspina-combine
I like what they’re doing. Trying to get in the heads of these kids to see what they’re made of. It sounds to me like the secret is in spending more time with these guys than maybe other teams do. I like Malaspina’s line, “wired right.”
Good observation. I would modify slightly to say the 49ers “value players that overcame injuries” (Aldon, Gore)
Adam,
I’m not disagreeing with your overall assessment of the 49ers’ FO [they must be doing something right, and probably different], but specifically with the notion that Aldon Smith was seen as a “reach” pick.
Unless I’m misremembering, Aldon Smith was slotted to go between ten and fifteen by draft day. And when the 49ers made the pick, Mel Kiper and Matt Mayock liked the pick and didn’t have any other names that he liked better at that spot for the 49ers [not that Kiper and Mayock are the be all, end all draft wise]. I’m just saying that pick was not seen as a reach by most draft analysts. Other NFL analysts may have called the pick a reach, but that’s more because AS wasn’t a household name and didn’t have the production in college due to injuries.
Only one DL in the draft? That’s crazy if they lose both Soap and RJF with Justin Smith aging. Unless you assume they will sign another free agent, that’s not enough.
Grant – How did you get back on the 49erswebzone page? Did you have to gravel or are you back in with the back in with the departure of Alex the Great?
Interesting quote by Matt Williamson of Scouts, Inc., as quoted in Sando:
Williamson: You can look at it like, ‘OK, we’re the best team in the league. We don’t have glaring holes in our lineups. We have a ton of picks.’ In a weird draft where everyone wants to move down, maybe the 49ers are one of the few teams wanting to move up. Maybe they move from No. 31 to No. 15 and get a stud defensive lineman to rotate in and be the next guy up front. I would strongly consider a big move up if I’m the 49ers. Adding a pick for Smith helps that. They need to get younger on defense. A stud defensive lineman or a corner could make sense. So could another receiver.
Go Niners!
Just curious, when the niners had a team psychologist he put the dynasty players on a battery of tests. Just curious if that information was used to help draft other niner players. If this is so do they still use the data to draft players/free agents?
Just maybe…
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/92704/nerds-revenge-their-win-probability-is-up
“…Marathe (49ers) sees the use of analytics as nascent to the NFL. He pointed to players’ mental aptitude and injury prevention as two areas largely unexplored using advanced methods.
“Margins for mental makeup are so much wider than those for physical ability” Marathe said. The NFL’s recently adopted psychological testing will arm teams with new levels of information.”"
Not gonna lie grant that would b a great draft
Maybe you should add who we will pick up in free agency to complete the off season process thanks
There is way too much depth at CB in this draft to trade up to #11 for Rhodes. While I do like him as a player the game is value. No way niners keep 15 picks but 7 of those picks come in round 6&7. 49ers have enough holes to warrant drafting a few guys. There is too much value in this draft in the late first, second, and third. Niners go DE at 31(or trade up a few spaces using picks in mid rounds), go safety at 34, receiver at 63, CB at 74, and Lattimore at 93.
Adam, I agree.
The picks in rounds 2-3 have big value in what many call an “unspectacular but deep” draft. Treat them like gold.
If the 49ers try to move up from #31, I hope they trade no higher then #93… possibly combined with even later picks to jump into the 19-26 range. That’s it.
I don’t see the 49ers sacrificing picks 34, 61 and 74 just to move the 31 pick higher. The first round is not that talented.
I’m hoping they will package late round picks with the 61, 74 and 93 picks to move them a little higher in their respective rounds. This is the year to jam as much draft capitol as possible between picks 20-80.
Very much agree.
I agree with this assessment as well.
It seems like the market is flooded with decent free agents, and no team has much cap space to pay free agents. I think a lot of experienced free agents hoping to cash in from competitive bidding are going to be disappointed. I presume the 9ers will take their customary approach of waiting to see who falls in their lap. Should be good values available cheap
It may be a pipe dream, since Goldson would need to be paid too much for a strong safety, but I would like to see a safety tandem of Culliver and Goldson. As I’ve been saying since last year [and was called a moron for wanting to move Goldson to SS by a lot of posters who are now ok with him being released, weird]. Goldson is much better suited to play SS than FS, and Culliver was no were near as bad a CB as some are making him out to be.
Whitner is the real weak link.
Dream first three picks…
31st – Tavon Austin (I do consider him a #2 WR…playmaker/game changer from anywhere)
34th – Eifert or Ertz (do not resign Walker)
Trade up in 2nd round and take Margus Hunt
Address CB, DT, S, #2 WR via draft (3rd round and beyond) and FA…this is a very deep and talented group for DB and DT in both FA and draft. Resign Francois.
Dream first three picks…
31st – Tavon Austin (I meant to say, I DO NOT consider him a #2 WR…playmaker/game changer from anywhere)
34th – Eifert or Ertz (do not resign Walker)
Trade up in 2nd round and take Margus Hunt
Address CB, DT, S, #2 WR via draft (3rd round and beyond) and FA…this is a very deep and talented group for DB and DT in both FA and draft. Resign Francois.
I wonder a bit about Hunt. Fabulous measurables, but Houston Niner the other day said he watched Hunt play some, and thought he didn’t stand out against sometimes mediocre competition as he should have. OK that’s just one viewpoint, and not from an established analyst, but Houston has watched some football in his life and makes some decent observations. We see a lot of the Pac12 guys, so Houston’s thoughts may bear some consideration.
Houston’s right. His film does not back up his measurables, but if his film were as good as measurables, he’s probably the top pick in draft. You put a guy that raw with that level of talent behind Smith, where he can learn for two years (spot duty in between)…ky’s the limit. I say in three years, the four best players from this draft are Austin, Jordan, Ansah. The last two we annot get without moving up and don’t think they are worth that much to do so. Give me the last two who we could be staring at and we are sitting pretty for the next 8-10 years at slot and DE.
Sorry, Jordan, Austin, Ansah, and Hunt
@AdamSchefter: “Former Eagles DL Cullen Jenkins visited Giants on Friday, scheduled to visit Seahawks Monday and 49ers Tuesday. > 6-2, 305.”
Cullen Jenkins would be a nice fit…..could give Justin Smith and Ray McDonald a breather. I hope Fangio changes his philosophy and starts to rotate players along the defensive line.
If the 49ers lose both RJF and Sopoaga, adding an experienced guy in FA makes sense. 49ers won’t want to be relying on a rookie to start this year (if some do then it will be earned, not given) – they’ll want a veteran in place in case the rookies aren’t ready.
Goldson headed to Buffalo?
http://blogs.buffalonews.com/press-coverage/2013/03/stevie-johnson-giving-bills-sales-pitch-to-bowe-jennings-goldson.html
Ha! He should love it in Buffalo. He’ll never sniff another Super Bowl. Some players never learn.
Jack, I’m confused, lol.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000146239/article/jairus-byrd-designated-with-buffalo-bills-franchise-tag
Space-
Yeah, maybe they want Dashon to play QB. How much worse can it be?
It’s more about Stevie Johnson being confused. Which is his normal state.
“…new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine didn’t designate free and strong safeties with the New York Jets.”
I see, Goldson would be George Wilson’s replacement. Then the Bill’s could have the most expensive safety duo in the NFL.
Tyrann Mathieu will never make to 4th round. I like the idea of taking a qb late round (ie. Matt Scott), grooming him under Harbaugh, trading him for a high pick two seasons later. Repeat.
I think Tyrann is like all other draftees and like Baseball Cards; the value is in the eye of the buyer/drafter. If a GM thinks he’s worth a 3rd Rounder, then they grab him and he is (until proven otherwise).
Orlando Cepeda Rookie Card? Whatever the next guy pays is what it’s worth. Your house? Whatever the next guy pays……..
I wouldn’t ‘pay’ a third for Tyrann, a low 4th or a 5th IMO, but if someone else spends a third, well ok, I’m not going to cry about not getting him at that price.
You would pass on the Honey Badger late in the 3rd Round? Not me.
Yes, probably would; I think there’s other guys who could help more, depending on the previous picks of course.
Not sure who you have in mind that would be a better slot cover corner and return man with football instincts second to none.
Razor
I understand your question, but I don’t see it that way. I’m not saying there’s a better guy with all the same skill set; I’m saying there are other guys at all sorts of positions at that draft spot who could help the team more; better value to Niners. Slot CB is a need. Returner is a need. What if there’s a WR/KR (i.e. Austin, tho not my choice) already taken, then slot cover guy can come in 3-4-or-5. It just depends.
Tyrann’s got game and he’s got limitations. He’ll make plays for somebody, but if I’m Roman lining up against him, I send Kyle Williams deep first off just to see what he’s got. 4.5/40 isn’t that bad, but it isn’t lightning either.
If the Rams or Seahawks draft Austin, does he then become more valuable to you?
Well, you have to like his confidence, but is this a slot match-up you really think he wins?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000145653/article/tyrann-mathieu-says-he-could-cover-calvin-johnson
I like Mathieu as a core special teamer and dimeback. I can easily see him sticking on this team which makes him worth a late third/early fourth. Odds are somebody else picks him though.
I still remain unconvinced. Good football instincts but only an average athlete, with significant red flags. He’ll never be more than a nickel CB, and a lot of teams are now shifting towards bigger WRs in the nickel. He’ll be physically out matched when he comes up against the better standard of players in the NFL.
I’ll also never understand the obsession with over-drafting guys with big character concerns just because they have some talent. It very rarely works out.
Sorry for the delay Razor, been out in the garden. In Feb! Anyway, I don’t have quite that specific a plan; too many variables about other teams. I’m trying to see value and needs. At whatever value Trent places on his skills he could fill two roles; slot and PR/KR. But there are a lot of possible combinations of ways to to fill those as well as other needs. So it depends on who Trent has already selected and all the possibilities available. Should they wait & hope he drops? No, IMO. Should they consider him among those left? Absolutely.
Red Flags on him? I dunno, but Trent does need to know. He’s either on their board or not. You’d pull the trigger at 94. I’d wait longer even at risk of not getting him.
So if the Raiders are shopping #3 are we in the market?
Seems we may owe them (and the Cardinals) a favor for driving the price up for Alex Smith.
Pro: Sharrif Floyd. Matt Malaspina likes the players in the southeast, especially Florida. We have tons of picks.
Con: Baalke seems pretty conservative on draft day. Small moves not big ones. We have more FAs to deal with in 2014. Some picks will trade out for 2014?
Thoughts?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders traded down twice. It would be awfully tough for the Niners to trade up all the way to No.3. Maybe the Niners could trade with the Raiders on their second trade down.
Yeah, I don’t see it. My gut feeling is that the Niners stay fairly close to their original spots, maybe trade up a few spots and then out to 2014.
I think they’ll draft for depth primarily. I wouldn’t be surprised though to see them look for an immediate contributor in the defensive backfield. I don’t see the Revis thing as practical but they will probably look to a vet to shore that up and then a potential superstar in the draft, the back-end took some beating this season.
I like your arrangement up top, my only change would be that I think they try to keep Goldson and maybe Delanie Walker. I think those are really the only priorities, maybe Jean-Francois as well.
It would probably be smart for Oak to trade back, even twice. But if I was them I’d grab Miliner at #3 if he’s there, or even one of the top two OTs if Milliner’s gone.
My wild guess is that Trent may not trade up more than 10 spots in the first round, if at all. He may want to trade up substantially in rounds 2-4.
Exactly right Brotha. Rounds 2-4 are your blue light specials in this draft.
This is pretty interesting to follow. How early would you have taken Kaepernick? http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2013-rsp-football-writers-project/writers-project-draft-room/
Pfft! I’m taking him first overall.
Somebody seriously took Calais Campbell over Russell Wilson and Kap? SMH
Grimey,
That stood out to me, too. The guy who made that pick is a numbskull.
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Andrew Luck
3. Colin Kaepernick [could be number one by the end of next year]
4. Russell Wilson
5. RG3
6. Drew Brees
7. Tom Brady
8. Peyton Manning
9. and beyond, in the words of Bill Murray, “Who cares, really?”
Is this draft for the future or just this year? Manning, Brady and Brees are no doubt Canton bound but if I were starting a new team I’d look elsewhere. If I were looking for a Super Bowl this year then yes, they’re the guys after Rodgers.
Grant, now that the 49ers have re-signed Hastings, they may not need to draft a WR, LOL. I wonder if he is going to join Kap?
Maybe the plan is to keep MM and hope he is ready when the season starts or only misses the first few games and in the meantime use AJJ, Lockette, Hall and Hastings – and possibly Williams if he heals, too. I’m pretty sure Brett Swain will be available, too, if they need him.
Hastings? We’re a lock for the Super Bowl now! LOL
OK, but really, besides the usual competition Harbs’ likes, does this hint that Mario M. might be on PUP on Opening Day?
Brotha, MM on PUP could be a possibility, though my comment was done slightly tongue-in-cheek. But adding Hastings, a player that knows the offense, does make me wonder if it goes beyond adding competition.
hi grant,
someone has to think about next years salary cap for the nines.they will have to pay colin kap at least an additional 8 million and justin smith at least another 2 million.also they will want to sign teelle brown.so dont spend it all this year.
ed o
Sorry I’m a bit late to the dance. I hadn’t actually worked out a mock draft yet, it’s still a bit early for those in my opinion.
UF/A Losses:
L.Davis(even though he made less then 1M last season we already have guys in the hopper) and will draft a G in the later rounds as well.
Ginn Jr.
Goldson (not worth to US what he’ll get paid)
Haggans
Jean-Francois (let the Packers make this guy their Aubrayo Franklin)
Sopoaga
L. Grant(we’re not short on ILB and he’ll get paid better somewhere else)
T. Gooden
R. Moss(even at the minimum his production isn’t justified. He cost us $62,500 per reception last season vs. Crab’s $41,176. Each moss TD cost us $583,333 while Crab cost us $388K per and we paid Moss $4032 for each yard gained vs $3167 towards Crabs. I used Crabtree because he’s our most expensive WR. The veteran minimum sounds cheap until you see what you get for it)
RF/A:
Brock: no tender
McBath: no tender
Re-signed:
D. Walker(Walker isn’t the kind of player that is going to make a huge impact on a new team, he and his agent will realize that he has the most value in SF)
Cut:
Akers
Whitner
Haralson
Dixon(the 49ers probably wanted to cut him last year but he did his best job convincing them to give him another shot, after drafting his replacement in the draft this year Dixon has run out of chances)
CJ Spillman(saves nearly 1m in cap space)
Lamar Divens (who is this guy, he doesn’t’ have any recorded stats since 2010?)
Manningham(once he clears physical, unless he’s willing to restructure they’re not going to pay 3.6M for damaged goods that will probably miss most of TC)
Rogers (I know it’s only a little over 1M in savings but it’s more then just gaining cap space)
Things to notice:
Terrell Brown’s contract jumps from 850K to 2.950M this season. Are we 100% sure the 49ers view him as worth that much?
F/A Signings:
Greg Toler (I consider this a bit of a long shot, I think he’ll probably be valued higher then we want to pay but I’m keeping him here for now) This is Rogers replacement
Chris Clemons (starts as Goldsons replacement)
Pat Sims (replaces Sopoaga)
Colin Brown (can he push out Goodwin and his huge salary?)
Draft:
Round 1 – Trade #31,#61} to Pittsburgh for #17 to draft D.Jones
Round 1 – Trade ’14 #1 to NE for #29 to draft Matt Elam
Round 2 – #34 GB trades us their #55 & #88 and ’14 #4 four the #34
Round 2 – #55 draft Justin Hunter WR
Round 3 – #88 draft Steadmen Bailey WR
Round 3- #93 draft Gerald Hodges OLB
Round 5 – #150 draft Dustin Hopkins K
Round 5 – #157157 draft Jeff Baca OG
Round 6 – #170 draft Braden Brown OT
Round 6 – #189 Micah Hyde CB
Round 7 – #211 Mychal Rivera TE
Round 7 – #221 Mario Benavides C
Why two WR’s so early, well looking at what we currently have this is what I see; Crabtree(big ticket F/A in two years) / Mario Manningham (returning from major knee injury possibly might be cut) / Kyle Williams (returning from injury) / Randy Moss (old, slow and production hardly justifies minimum contract) / AJ Jenkins(?? Complete unkown, possible bust) / Chad Hall / Ricardo Lockette (practice squad). So it kind of looks like we have 1 healthy starter, two injured starters, an un-kown and a couple of practice squad players.
Why so few DL? I signed one in F/A and I’m still thinking the team must like at least a couple of the thirty we currently have signed.
Being such an early mock draft don’t beat me up for it being so idealized and having no later round trades, it’s mostly to early still for mocks in my opinion.
I mention that they’ll cut Dixon and draft his replacement but then i failed to draft his replacement, oops. My next mock will have a RB tucked in there.
I forgot to mention that I didn’t bother yet with the compensatory picks.
Coffee, with Grant and Gooden gone, the 49ers would only have Wilhoite for ILB behind Willis and Bowman, right? Did I miss you drafting one or an FA?
We’d still have Darius Fleming and Cam Johnson as well as Wilhoite and Stupar.
Coffee, all three of those are OLB’s.
You could be right about Fleming but Johnson is listed at nearly 270 which is beefy even for an ILB.
Fleming is 6’2″ 255 so I assumed he could play on the inside.
Fleming, Johnson and Stupar are OLB’s. Wilhoite is an ILB as were Gooden and Grant. In today’s 3-4, ILB’s run around the 240-245 lb range like Willis, Bowman and Wilhoite. The days of the 255 lb ILB’s are pretty much gone.
OK but the guys you’re saying are OLB’s are all in the weight range of what you listed as ILB’s or heavier.
OLB’s:
Brooks 259 lbs
A. Smith 258 lbs
Fleming 255 lbs
Johnson 268 lbs
Stupar 240 lbs
ILB’s:
Willis 240 lbs
Bowman 240lbs
Wilhoite 240 lbs
Gooden 242 lbs
Grant 250 lbs
Gerald Hodges would be an ILB for the 49ers.
Coffee, good read. Realise it is an early mock, but my concern with your projection would the roster looks on paper to be weaker than last seasons. For instance, by cutting Haralson they only have Fleming and Johnson from last years draft as depth, and at NT it would be Pat Sims (who rarely started for the Bengals) and Ian Williams (has he even played a snap yet?).
At safety we’d have a rookie replacing a pro bowler, and a FA replacing the other pro bowler. Spillman is gone too so not sure who the backups are… Trenton Robinson?
Rogers has been replaced by a guy that was at best the #2 CB for the Cards, and Cox remains the next man up (unless 6th rounder Micah Hyde is expected to step up as a rookie). That’s leaving a lot of faith in Brown, Culliver and Toler.
And with both Manningham and Moss gone, it leaves Crabtree, Jenkins, Williams and 2 rookies.
I struggle to see that as an improvement on the roster. If they are going to cut so many players, they need to replace them. And I don’t see this coaching staff and front office relying on rookies to replace starters.
Thanks, Scooter, Haralson, OLB, 255 lbs.
Coffee, I really don’t know how you got that all the players I mentioned as OLB’s were the same weight range as the ILB’s. Stupar is only 240, but the only OLB I mentioned in the same weight range as the ILB’s. Most OLB’s are heavier than ILB’s in a 3-4.
The whole ILB/ OLB weight thing is somewhat irrelevant anyway. Yes, the OLBs in the 49ers 3-4 tend to be a bit heavier (because they need to be able to take on OTs). But just because a guys falls within a usual weight range has nothing to do with whether they are best suited as an OLB or ILB in the 3-4. They are very different positions that require very different skill sets.
ILB’s in a 3-4 need to be fast enough to go sideline to sideline and be able to drop into coverage. And these types tend to weigh less. Don’t see how that is not revelant. Not too may 255 – 260 lb players can do that. But weight was not what this was about, it was about who were OLB’s/ILB’s on the 49er roster.
It’s irrelevant in the sense that it doesn’t matter if an ILB is 260 pounds so long as he can move well enough to fill the hole and make the tackle. For an OLB, if he can keep the OT off him, has the strength to set the edge and can pressure the QB then who cares if he is 245 pounds or 260 pounds?
All that matters is the ILB needs to be able to fill the hole in the middle and move laterally, while the OLB needs to be able to rush the passer, set the edge, and occasionally drop into coverage.
Different skill sets. That’s the important element between what dictates an ILB or OLB in the 3-4.
And yes spaceborn, I realise that typically the ILBs are a little smaller than the OLBs in the style of 3-4 the 49ers play, because that is where the skills they require are typically found. I was only trying to highlight that it is the skills that are important, not the weight. 49ers will not be sitting there thinking Brooks would make an ideal ILB if only he could shed 5-10 pounds.
Scooter, I get all that, but my orignal response was about “who” are OLB’s vs ILB’s on the 49er roster including those about to be FA’s.
But that got sidetracked into a weight discussion.
Can you tell me which ILB’s are left if Gooden and Grant aren’t re-signed that were on the 2012 roster?
They would have none spaceborn (with the exception of Hodges that Coffee had in his draft). You were the one that argued against my “irrelevant” comment regarding weight, which was actually meant for coffee who was describing weight ranges as the reason guys should be ILB vs OLB. I was only supporting your assertion that if Grant and Gooden are gone, Fleming and Johnson would not be seen as ILB depth.
My comment was outlining that weight was not the real reason, but the skills they possess. Fleming and Johnson are OLBs because they have skills in rushing the passer, setting the edge, etc.
Scooter, thanks for the response. I wasn’t really trying to argue. But when I see a trends like smaller ILB’s, larger WR’s, read-option QB’s, I see that as relevant in a football discussion, LOL.
Flub, I forgot to draft my QB. Once I know the exact numbers of the compensatory pick my next mock will have QB Scott taken somewhere in the 4th or 5th with a RB as well.
Scooter_McG says:
March 2, 2013 at 1:56 pm
At safety we’d have a rookie replacing a pro bowler, and a FA replacing the other pro bowler. Spillman is gone too so not sure who the backups are… Trenton Robinson?
I like Clemons a lot, his numbers this past season were better then Goldsons so I’m willing to believe he can start in place of him without missing a beat. The rookie would take Whitners spot and I don’t see any reason to not see that as an upgrade at this point. That leaves Robinson and Thomas as backups so yes we’d still need someone else. I’ve heard talk of Culliver playing safety so there’s a possibility that I didn’t address.
Scooter_McG says:
March 2, 2013 at 1:56 pm
Rogers has been replaced by a guy that was at best the #2 CB for the Cards, and Cox remains the next man up (unless 6th rounder Micah Hyde is expected to step up as a rookie). That’s leaving a lot of faith in Brown, Culliver and Toler.
I’ll admit I left the CB position bare in this first go around. I’d assume that Toler and Brown would start and you’re right it’s a big assumption to make. Hyde and Cox would be the back ups if the Culliver goes to safety in the above situation which would leave me still needing another CB. Stuff to consider for my next version.
Scooter_McG says:
March 2, 2013 at 1:56 pm
And with both Manningham and Moss gone, it leaves Crabtree, Jenkins, Williams and 2 rookies.
I like the two rookies over most of the free agent options. You’re also assuming that Williams who was a #3 to begin with will still be considered as high after coming back from injury, I’m not so sure. I could consider adding a free agent receiver but at this point I’m not ready to.
I will revisit my linebacker selections. I realize that I’ve probably been looking at these guys wrong. I’ve always thought of the 3-4 LB to be in the sub 250 range for the speed to rush the QB and the ILB’s to be beefy to absorb the lineman. I will investigate this further and probably make some big changes to my linebacker moves.
Thanks for the feedback.
I agree on Clemons coffee – if the 49ers let Goldson walk they should look to add a veteran FS. I’d be nervous though of simply assuming Elam (or any rookie) will be an upgrade over Whitner. I expect a safety to be drafted early, but I also expect the 49ers to have two veteran safeties in place. If the rookie wins the job in camp then he’s earned it.
I also like the idea of adding Toler, even at the expense of Rogers. But if they go this route I fully expect a CB would be drafted early as well. Let Culliver, Toler and the rookie fight for the #2 and #3 CB spots.
At WR, if they cut Manningham, I’d definitely like to see a veteran signed (I’ve mentioned Brandon Gibson a few times as a potential option). Last season should be evidence enough that relying on rookie WRs is a dangerous game. How many rookie WRs did well last season?
Great job C4C,
I will put out my 1st mock (meat and potatoes) with the caveat that it is subject to change right up a few days before the draft.
1. Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida State
2. Brandon Williams, DT Missouri South
3. Justin Hunter, WR Tenn.
4. Terry Hawthorn, CB Illinois
5. Marcus Davis, WR Virginia Tech
6. A.J. Francis, DT Maryland
7. Collin Klein, QB Kansas St.
Keenan Lewis CB Blitzburg is the free agent I would target if I were Baalke.
Agreed, though this article seems to think he could be in for a big pay day.
http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2013/3/1/4042324/steelers-free-agency-keenan-lewis-contract
Grant it turns out you should have left Moss off after all.
Some creative and very interesting options being offered on this topic. I’m going to study it a bit more before I submit something but looking at it right now, I don’t think they are going to trade their picks in the top 3 unless it’s for big time returns in 2014 ie. They get a first for one of their top 2 picks.
Ultimately they are in a position to account for losses now and next year by picking players to replace those they won’t resign, and to set themselves up for another strong cache of draft picks in 2014. This draft is deep in comparable talent so a trade up doesn’t seem likely to me until the later rounds to move up or to trade for better ones in 2014.
I honestly won’t be surprised if they don’t resign Goldson, Walker or RJF knowing the way they do business. They won’t go beyond their set number for Goldson and will let him go if he finds someone willing to overpay and put him in Weddle territory. The other two are role players who will be looking to be paid like starters and the Niners can’t and won’t do it.
They have the quantity and quality of draft picks to replace these players cheaply and allow themselves to be in position to sign key players who will be FA’s or in the last year of their contracts after 2014.
49ers Dream offseason
1st round pick: third round pick: trade for Darrell revis.
Pick 34 draft: Keenan Allen
Pick 61 and 4th rounder trade for Percy Harvin.
3rd rounder: Dline depth
Free agents: S Kenny Phillips
Wr: Ramseed barden, Cb: DRC
Dustin Keller
Wr 1.Crabtree
2.Percy
4.Allen
3.Barden
Manningham pup list
5.Jenkins
Kyle Williams?
It’ll take more than that to acquire Revis and/or Harvin via trade SF. Add that to the fact that you would have Revis, Crabtree, and Harvin wanting new contracts after this season and Kaep needing a new contract as well. All of that together adds up to a very messy situation.
Small school name to take note of.
Aaron Mellette, WR 6’4″ 215 lbs. from Elon (Phoenix)
Dominated his division in college. Could be available in the 3rd possibly 4th rd.
I’m waiting to see his pro-day numbers.
I have a big fat contract so I’m going to claim I was nervous when I wanted to illegally tackle Ted Ginn Jr. in the Super Bowl.
-Ravens QB Joe Flacco