According to Advanced NFL Statistics, Jim Harbaugh made three decisions which cost the 49ers seven percent of a win in the Super Bowl. Those decisions were:
1. Punting on fourth-and-four from the 49ers’ 12 yard line with 2:07 left in the second quarter, down 14-3. The offense should have attempted to pick up the first down. This misjudgment cost the 49ers two percent of a win.
2. Kicking a field goal on fourth-and-two from the Ravens’ 16 yard line with 3:10 left in the third quarter, down 28-20. Again, the offense should have gone for the first down. This misjudgment cost the 49ers four percent of a win.
3. Kicking an extra point down 28-12 in third quarter. Harbaugh should have called for a two-point conversion. This misjudgment cost the 49ers one percent of a win.
I am not agreeing with this analysis. I present it because it’s thought provoking and somewhat controversial. Advanced NFL Statistics also takes issue with John Harbaugh in that game.
To read a thorough statistical analysis of these issues, click here.
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Harbaugh cost us that game by not having the Niners ready for the battle against the Ravens. That absolutely cannot happen again. We can’t wait for another blackout during a game to make something happen.
Agreed. the team needs to make play and close the big games or they will be the Bills of the 90s or the Eagles of the 2000s. The only difference and it is much worse is that the better team lost the Superbowl. No way Ravens were a better team. This is a sucky reminder about the SB loss. Thanks Grant, my day just got darker. Going to take a nap. WTF
You guys make me puke. Harbaugh is the reason we were in the Superbowl in the first place. Bunch of weenies…
Having us in the Super Bowl does not excuse not having the team perpared to play in the Super Bowl. PERIOD.
Prepared.
Its Hsrbaughs fault the refs missed the holding call on the kickoff return. Also his fault the ref allowed a Raven to push him and didnt eject him.
Didn’t Bill Walsh say something along the lines of if you don’t put yourself in that position then you don’t have a reason to blame the refs for their call or missed call? And yes I am paraphrasing his statement. The Niners put themselves in that position and not the refs.
It was Harbaugh’s job to adequately prepare the team and he failed to do so.
MidWestNiner,
Of course, a team wants to be in a position to not be affected by a bad call by the refs. That doesn’t mean when a bad call happens [the no-calls on the KO return for TD and the fade pattern to MC on 4th down], or doesn’t happen [ref not throwing the Raven DB out of the game for shoving him], you can’t point to it as a reason contributing to an outcome.
One thing is a coach coaching, the other is analysis. They are two different things.
Coaches say all kinds of things that aren’t necessarily true to get their players to thing in a certain way. Walsh’s comments were geared toward his players to feel they were in control of the outcome of any game, not anyone else, inlcuding the refs. That’s good coaching.
But to just ignore the reality the effect the horrible oddiciating had on the outcome of the SB is silly, IMO.
I’m not ignoring it Exgolfer, but the fact remains that the team was iil prepared to play against the Ravens in the Super Bowl. The refs had nothing to with the offense lining up in an illegal formation on the very first play. It isn’t the ref’s fault for the team not doing anything on offense or defense until after the blackout. It also isn’t their fault that the ST unit failed to get to the Ravens punter in the waning minute and allowing 12 precious seconds to run off the clock. And it definitely wasn’t the fault of the refs that on the final three downs for the offense that Gore, who had been gashing the Ravens D in the second half, was on the sideline. Those all fall on Harbaugh and his coaching staff. They also played a bigger role in the loss than the blown calls by the refs.
MWN,
Are you saying that the illegal formation is JH’s fault?
If you’re using an absolute “The Buck Stops Here” approach, I suppose that’s the case, but I think it’s rather hard to believe that the illegal formation on the first play was due to a lack of preparedness. It was simply a mistake made by the player who was out of formation.
Your contention that the 49ers didn’t do anything before the blackout isn’t entirely true. They moved the ball pretty well and were poised to seize control of the game when LMJ fumbled. Is that JH’s fault?
On Jacoby Jones’ TD catch, was the blown coverage JH’s fault?
On the KO return for TD was the refs not calling either of two Ravens for holding Bruce Miller JH’s fault?
As for the punter running out the clock in the end zone, did you notice all of the 49ers being held by the Ravens? What in the world is Harbaugh supposed to do to prevent that?
I hate refresh!!!!
I’d love to respond to you Exgolfer, but I keep having the page refreshed. I’m even trying to use the notebook to help me write it, but my response keeps disappearing when I try to put it into the comment box.
We were set-up to lose the Atlanta game as well but lucked out that Atlanta did not score more…weenies or not, if you are in the game you gotta win it
I am not blaming Harbaugh for everything that went wrong in the Super Bowl Exgolfer, but he was the main factor as to why the team lost. The team wasn’t prepared and that falls on him. There won’t always be a blackout in a game so that the Niners wake up on offense and defense.
MWN,
I just don’t buy that JH was primarily responsible for the 49ers losing the SB.
Think obout it guys. Without Harbaugh we wouldn’t be in the playoffs or the bowl. Does anyone thing Dingletary would have got us there.
MidWestNiner, go root for the Browns…
I can’t for two reasons: I have taste and you took my spot rooting for the Browns. And I really wanted to put on a dog faced mask too!
That first one is absolutely absurd. If you don’t convert you are gifting the Ravens at least a field goal (I realize they scored anyways, but that’s on the defense). The other two certainly certainly have some merit though.
I don’t think it’s absurd. The 9ers were averaging well over 4 yds per play, and possession of the ball is the most important thing. If the niners convert in that situation(which would be highly likely as they were killing the Ravens D)then the Ravens have no shot of scoring.
Am I reading that correctly? They think we should have gone for it from our own 12 yard line with 2:07 in the second quarter?
yeah, that one is mucky. If they don’t convert, JHwould’ve been pulverized.
It’s just statistical analysis. There is no coach in the NFL that would have done either 1 or 2 differently in those situations.
Chip Kelly
@ Jack:
I wouldn’t simply dismiss the statistical analysis out of hand, particularly if the only basis for rejecting it is that it contravenes non fact-based conventional wisdom. Clinging to conventional wisdom merely because it is the conventional wisdom (and not because it has been tested and proven wise) isn’t a virtue. At one time, the conventional wisdom was that there wasn’t much use for passing in football. The conventional wisdom surrounding 4th down decisions in particular seems to be based upon untested assumptions, excessive fear of failure and/or faulty risk calculations.
The biggest problem with the statistical analysis of these situations to date is that it usually involves examination of league averages. The actual game situation, however, doesn’t involve the league’s average offense going against the league’s average defense. It involves a specific team, with specific strengths and weaknesses on both offense and defense, going against a specific team, with its own specific defensive and offensive strengths and weaknesses. One also has to take into account how each team is playing in the game in question.
Once the statisticians figure out how to calculate the percentages using more relevant data, their prediction models will be more compelling. I thought Grimey’s use of game-specific data in his arguments in this thread was an example of added persuasiveness.
Of course, this is all speculation because NFL coaches for the most part have been so conventionally conservative in 4th down situations that we don’t have enough data. That’s why I am looking forward to Chip Kelly’s entry into the NFL. Unless he changes his ways, he is going to be less conventional and more aggressive on 4th down. The Eagles hopefully are going to give us all sorts of data points.
There are lies. There are damn lies and there are statistics.
These ‘statistics’ do not take into account all of the variables ergo they are not valid in the least.
@MidWestNiner:
While there are indeed problems with some of the current statistical analyses, to dismiss them summarily as being “not valid in the least” isn’t a particularly meaningful or accurate criticism.
They only take certain variables into consideration and not all of them. That alone makes them not valid in the least Claude. Not taking everything into consideration opens their ‘statistics’ up to a huge margin of error.
MidWestNiner:
The lack of specificity in your criticism makes it difficult to follow. Which variables are being left out? How much do those variables contribute to outcome determination? How does not taking “everything” into consideration automatically create a “huge” (presumably unacceptable) margin of error? And is that margin of error any larger than the one associated with blindly following a conventional wisdom based upon assumptions and uninformed risk calculations?
Here is what I posted in their comment section Claude:
There are too many variables here. For example, you risk a Mike Smith situation where you cost your team a win if you lose that ball on said forth down. And isn’t it better to come away with three points instead of no points? Let’s also add the fact that the 4 & 2 scenario doesn’t wash because it is based on a small sample size. Had that not been converted, then a Baltimore offense that had already torched the Niners’ secondary would have had the ball back. The next one is just as foolish. By the time the game had 4:19 left, the Niners’ defense was in full force and being able to stop the Ravens offense cold in its tracks. Had they failed to convert that fourth down, they would have given the ball back to a Niners’ offense that was hitting on all cylinders after the blackout. Two point conversion are less successful than kicking an extra point. If they had tried for it like you think they should have and failed, they could have risked losing the momentum shift that had occurred in the second half. And the Niners did attempt a two point conversion later in the game and failed in executing it mainly because Kaepernick didn’t really have any experience in that type of situation. This is a nice attempt to use statistics, but unless you consider ALL variables it comes off as looking to have been done by sheer amateurs.
MWN,
You still don’t explain how the statistical analysis is flawed. You’re saying the analysis isn’t correct based on the possible outcome of a given play. That isn’t what makes a statistical model incorrect.
BTW, do you know which variables were considered and which were left out? I don’t know myself, but I would bet where the ball would be turned over to the defense if the offense failed on fourth down would be included in the analysis.
If you play hold ‘em poker, please answer this question: Is it ever correct to fold pocket Aces PREFLOP. Obviously, there are many cases where you will have to fold AA after the flop. So the question is for before the flop action, only.
I get where they are going with the breakdown of probability and chances of success via that course of action vs. punting the ball away, but there is a reason you don’t go for it on 4th and 4 from your own 12 and no Coach at any level is going to do that except High School Coaches who know they have a far superior team to their opponent and know they can make up the points if they fail.
The closest example at the NFL level I can remember is Belichick against the Colts a few years ago when he went for it on 4th and two or something from somewhere around his own 30 to try and keep possession with a lead as opposed to punting and giving the ball back to Manning and company. They didn’t get it, the Colts scored the winning TD a couple of plays later and he was second guessed for weeks after about it. That was a regular season game. Can you imagine doing that in the SB? Nobody would do that and the hindsight of knowing the Ravens scored anyway changes nothing because your percentage of giving up a TD are much higher if you turn the ball over at your own 12 than they are if you punt and make the Ravens start from around midfield.
That is a move you make in desperation near the end of the game; not in the second quarter when you are down 14-3.
I don’t know either Exgolfer, but saying the team should have gone for it that early in the game is ridiculous. And if a Mike Smith situation had occured there, then how much down you think the percent of fault would have been affected? Also add in the fact that the Ravens’ WRs were smoking our secondary which affects the percentage of winning at that moment as well. Now let’s look at the next one talking about the Ravens going for it late in the game. The Niners were finally clicking on all cylinders offensively at that time, so it makes absolutely no sense for the Ravens to risk three points for seven and potentially hand the ball back to the Niners offense if they failed to convert, resulting in another Mike Smith possibility. And the two point conversion arguement is just foolish. To base it on what is a small scale? I mean c’mon. Our team was also just starting to make a comeback in the game. There is no way of knowing how much of the momentum would have evaporated had they the Niners tried for two points and failed that early. And the team did try for two points later in the game and failed to get them, mainly because Kaep lacked experience with that type of situation. How much did that affect our teams’ chances of winning? There are many more variables that could have had an impact on the outcome of the game that need to be considered as well. To even let one slip out of the picture ruins it.
Rocket,
I’m not saying they should’ve gone for it, I’m just saying there could be a valid statistical argument for considering it.
BTW, just because the Patriots didn’t pick up the first down, doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision to go for it. You get that, right? You can’t always tell if a decision is right or wrong based on the actual outcome.
BTW, the answer to the poker quiz is, yes, it is absolutely correct to fold pocket aces before the flop in certain tournament situations. It sounds like heresy, but, trust me, it can be the right thing to do. I won’t bore you with the analysis. My point is that some times things that seem counterintuitive, perhaps even crazy, are exactly the right thing to do.
Again, I’m not saying going for it on fourth and four from your own twelve yard line is right thing to do, necessarily. Only that just because “nobody else would do it” doesn’t automatically make it wrong, either.
Claude and golfer
Im not trying to speak for MWN but a variable that I though of that im not sure was included was the relative strength of the sides facing off (if u have a dominant run game going vs an inferior run D then going for it on 4th and short is a better statistical proposition than having a weak run game going vs a dominant run d in the same 4th and short scenario) So its possible to argue that going for it on 4th and 2 in the 1st q is a good decision while going for the same 4th and 2 in the 4th is a bad decision. Also injuries. Ngata went out wich weakened Balt’s run d so the same scenario in before and after his injury would have different odds of impacting victory.
Does that make sense? (it does in my head but im not sure i expressed it clearly)
“Also add in the fact that the Ravens’ WRs were smoking our secondary which affects the percentage of winning at that moment as well.”
A great argument for going for it. Why give them the ball at midfield if you can’t stop their offense? It just sets them up perfectly to make a big play. Which brings me to Belichick. He did the right thing He trusted his MVP Tom Brady because his defense had no chance of stopping Peyton Manning.
Two great examples: one coach punts, one coach goes for it, both coaches lose.
Boston,
If I get what you’re saying, I agree with you.
The relative strengths of both the offense and defense should be included in the analysis.
Exactly my point Bos. You need to analyze both sides of of the argument and the variables involved before you can come to any type of conclusion.
I don’t know either Exgolfer, but saying the team should have gone for it that early in the game is ridiculous.
If you don’t know what went into the analysis, then you don’t have a basis for saying it’s ridiculous, do you. You’re criticizing something on which you are uninformed and/or don’t understand. Skepticism I can understand, but not outright dismissal.
exgolfer,
BTW, just because the Patriots didn’t pick up the first down, doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision to go for it. You get that, right? You can’t always tell if a decision is right or wrong based on the actual outcome.
Yes I get it, and in this case Belichick might have actually been correct at that time in the game. I used that example because it’s really the only instence I can recall of a decision like this happening.
Going for it on 4th and four from your own 12 in the second quarter is not a smart move however (and I know you aren’t saying it is the right move). I realize the numbers allow for the possibility that it works, but it is giving points to an opponent without giving your defense the chance to hold them to nothing if you fail.
There is statiscal analysis and gametime common sense. A move like this is not using common sense.
“instance”
“statistical”
wow i can’t even blame an iphone for my spelling abomination. Just poor typing.
There is statiscal analysis and gametime common sense. A move like this is not using common sense.
Bingo Rocket. That is the area where I don’t see variables being considered from and is the reason I am dismissing their ‘statistics’.
Rocket,
I get what you’re saying, in fact, refresh wiped out something very similar I was writing that I didn’t bother to reconstruct.
MWN,
Game situation feel decisions cannot be modeled, and therefore aren’t variables. You can dimiss the statistics all you want, it’s a free country, but you have given zero backing for your doing so, other than the “I don’t like it, so I don’t agree” argument.
If you want to say you don’t agree with the conlcusions, fine. I’m just not sure how anyone can completely dismiss them entirely without understanding how they were generated in the first place [something you admitted in an earlier post].
I wanted both sides of the equation Exgolfer, not one. To say that the Niners should have gone for it on fourth and two in the red zone then have a percentage of how choosing not to do so is great and all, but what about the other side of the equation? What if they had gone for it and failed? How much would the percentage have been for that? How much of a difference in the percentages would there have been? Basically what I want both sides and not just the one. They only backed up their statements with one set of percentages. I want to know what the other percentages would be and if what they say is indeed the truth. BTW, I’m the one who talked about the refresh problem and it’s the main reason why I haven’t been able to back up what I am saying as well as I would like to. Heck, I’m surprised that I made it this far in the post.
MWN,
You keep saying that this statistical analysis didn’t consider other outcomes. As I said above, I don’t know what went into the analysis, but if all outcomes weren’t included, what exactly were they analyzing? The whole purpose of an analysis like the one above, is to compare different choices to determine how they compare.
Sorry for restarting the debate, but I wasn’t able to respond yesterday.
@MidWestNiner:
To say that the Niners should have gone for it on fourth and two in the red zone then have a percentage of how choosing not to do so is great and all, but what about the other side of the equation? What if they had gone for it and failed? How much would the percentage have been for that? How much of a difference in the percentages would there have been?
I don’t think you understand the calculations being done at Advanced NFL Stats. All of those percentages are accounted for in determining whether or not a team should have gone for it. They do not, as you allege, “only back[] up their statements with one set of percentages. ” The respective affects on winning from both success and failure and the likelihood of success/failure all factor into the final determination of whether a team should go for it on 4th down.
Perhaps if you actually read and understood how the numbers are calculated, you wouldn’t object to them.
*respective effects
I do agree with this analysis. Forth and 2 inside the red zone is a definite “go for it” situation. At the time I was pissed Harbaugh didn’t go for it. Especially after Akers missed the FG but a penalty gave us another chance.
I’ve read ideas like this before and they are interesting but nobody is going for it on 4th and 4 from their own 12 at least if they want to keep a Coaching job. The FG is also a decision made about 99% of the time at that point in the game. I can see some merit for going for it, but at that point with that much time on the clock you have to come away with something and that FG could end up being your winning margin.
Not going for two is one that could be debated but again at that point in the game the rule of thumb is not to chase points so not going for two falls in line with that.
The game would be pretty exciting if decisions like these were made though.
That’s the problem, coaches just want to keep their job. If they go for it and fail it’s the coaches fault but if they punt the ball and the other team scores it’s the players fault. Punting is not necessarily a strategy for winning, just a strategy for keeping your job.
To suggest that they should have actually gone for it on 4th and 4 from their own 12 yard line, down by less than 2 scores in the 2nd quarter is absolutely ridiculous.
The niners average gain rushing was 6.3. Their average per pass attempt was 10.2. They could have used almost any play in the book and beat the Ravens for four yards. That would have kept possession of the ball and a hot QB off the field. Instead they punted and gave up a touchdown in 22 seconds. Who is really being ridiculous?
There’s a lot more to it than taking a simplistic view of avg. yards per play. If they get 4 yards (let’s say a 50% chance of success, for arguments sake), they have the ball still deep in their own end, with most of the field to drive. If they don’t make it, it’s automatic points for the other team.
As far as arguing that the Falcons scored 22 seconds later, well, I agree that having some sort of supernatural ability to forsee the future would be a great asset to have, nobody has it (except apparently my nagging wife….-I’m pretty sure she doesn’t read this blog….If I disappear for a few months, you’ll know she does in fact read it….)
At any rate, the reward for going for it deep in your own end is too low compared to the risk of not getting, and giving away almost automatic points.
I can understand the argument if it’s one, even two yards to go, but 4 yards is a simple no-brainer in that situation. You punt. Every. Single. Time. In. The. History. of. the. NFL.
Yes you punt and your defense is still in a tough position in it’s own territory against a QB that you haven’t stopped. In that situation merely holding on to the ball is a victory regardless of field position simply because of the opportunity it provides you while taking away an opportunity from your opponent.
Worse case scenario you don’t make the first down, give up a TD, and go down 21-3 which they did anyway.
Im all for going for it in these situations in the preseason. .
What percentage did the refs cost us? You know the crew that shouldn’t have even been working the game.
The refs cost us 100%. I am referring to the hold of Miller that allowed the kick return.
The third one should be replaced by the 12 second runoff allowed by the Niners ST unit near the end of the game. Why did that happen even though Jim knows his brother has a ST pedigree?
the run off happened because they were holding our rushers, JH knew what was coming and it was still a lost cause because if the refs throw the flag for holding we dont get those precious seconds back it was a no win situation
This team came out like a deer in headlights, and I put that on not only Harbaugh but the entire staff. He should have taken one from the Bill Walsh playbook when he dressed as a bellboy and the team checked into the Pontiac hotel for Super Bowl XVI—the players did not recognize the coach and got into a tug of war over his bags. He also had his assistant coaches dress up as a hooker, pimp, and drug dealer in an effort to steer his players away from narcotics.
Looks like DG is going to hit free agency. I hope he and the 9ers come up with something fair for both. He deserves at least 7 mill a year. IMO. Lets see if TB can work out a good front or back end contract with incentive’ that will be earned. I hope DG wants to stay. Going to be interesting
Dashon Goldson isn’t worth that much money and SF is telling him as much by not tagging him. The draft is deep and SF has a plethora of picks. Dashon Goldson isn’t discipline enough. He is exceptional at the run but subpar in pass coverage.
I’ve said it before, I believe SF is krafting this organization after the Patriots and Robert Kraft. That means that if any player gets bigger than the team, they are released, traded, or simply cut.
Sf is sending the message to agents across the NFL. Either you want to play for a ring here in SF or you want to go somewhere else and play for money with little hope of championship success.
As for the article, I think the last 4 plays cost SF 100% of the superbowl win. SF didn’t move the ball with an empty back set the entire game. They move the ball down the field by using a pistol formation then go empty back set on 3rd and 4th down? Could we have made it any easier to defend?
Those 4 plays will go down in SF history. They will always be remembered for what a massive brain fart. That’s when experience really mattered. The Ravens saw that and went with a zero blitz. They forced a rookie QB making his 10th start to make a low percentage pass.
Fart. Fart. Fart.
That was last year. Next year let’s hope everyone gets smarter, not blame the refs. Like the year before, it shows how far the Niners have come, and how much farther they have to go.
Go Team!
Fan,
you talk about Fart Fart Fart but the only stick I smell is when you post something.
You revealed yourself to be anything but a fan. You are a Smith lover and a lukewarm CK fan. Have fun cheering for the Chiefs next year. LUckily we won’t have to read anymore garbage like the post below anymore once you leave.
Fansince 77 says:
January 7, 2013 at 3:23 pm
Okay so I’m curious with the Alex Haters and the CK Lovers, and you know who you are:
We’re playing the Packers in round 1. Alex proved that he was able to beat them in the first game in the season. He actually played well: 20-26 2 TDs, and the team looked dominant.
Would you feel comfortable having Alex as the starter for this game, or would you prefer CK, but where we can’t be sure if he’s going to have a great game or a so-so game.
Or maybe you think a so-so CK is infinitely better that the best Alex can do — which happened to be enough in the first game.
Just curious — keep the hate to a minimum!!!
Still thing Kaep doesn’t come into the conversation? Do you even know how to spell his name?
Fansince77 says:
February 8, 2013 at 12:48 pm
You’d be an idiot to pick KAP soley on those first 10 games and soley on physical ability, where he ran a specially designed offense 60 percent of the time.
KAP’s on his way to being a really good QB but even experts outside of this area right now would pick:
1. Luck. 2. Wilson. 3. RG3.
KAP doesn’t even enter the conversation.
You put RG3 behind this o-line and he would be unstoppable.
Bay,
You should also root for AS to be successful in KC next year. If he’s not, then the next time the 49ers are ready to trade their backup QB, other teams won’t be as interested.
Funny it says FanSince77 but it doesn’t say Fan of what. Definitely not a 49er fan and not a CK fan.
Fansince77 says:
February 8, 2013 at 12:33 pm
KAEP came into a team that in the NFC Title game the year before. Montana was 6-10 on a rebuilding squad.
You can’t even compare the two.
Also, part of KAEP’s success was he was running a PISTOL offense, something a lot of DC haven’t seen before.
Young was a pocket passer who ran. There were very few design schematic runs for him.
KAEP is going to be great as he matures, but he also have to evolve. Watch the game again, he is a stick and read QB. He’s not there yet as a complete passer. He’s a weapon, for sure, but not quite there as a QB who goes through progressions. He gets a full season now to evolve into being a complete passer. We’ll see how teams adjust to him especially the division teams like STL and SEA.
After the results of the SB, you gotta give props to Andrew Luck for all those come from behind wins, where he’s asked to do alot on a crappy team.
Bay
What exactly in the last post u copied/pasted from Fan do u disagree with? Is CK mature as he’s gonna get? Does he need to improve at anything? R u ready to compare CK to Joe cool? Do u think CK is as complete passer as he is going to be?
Cuz to me it seems like Kaep agrees with fan and thats why he went to Atl to train a week after the SB instead of hob nobbin with the holywood types.
I dont understand where your anger is coming from
1. Harbaugh not having the team ready until after the blackout.
2. Harbaugh not having the ST unit go after the Raven’s punter which
caused 12 seconds to run off the clock that our offense could have used.
3. Keeping Gore on the sidelines during the final three downs of the game
for our offense.
Now THIS makes sense.
Go for it on 4th and 4 from your own 12? I had to read that 4 times before I could believe they actually thought it was even an option.
It IS useful to know that “Advanced NFL Statistics” produces material that’s mostly good for a chuckle. Glad you threw in the disclaimer, Grant!
point 3-++++++
All of these things could or would not have changed the game. The game was lost by CK on the last series in the red zone. He was a deer in the headlights. He choked on the biggest set of plays in his short career. So you can blame who you want, but the facts and game film don’t lie.
That isn’t a fair assessment imo Mavin. That’s one part of the game that was par for the course on a day of mistakes. The game was lost when they went down 28-6, it was lost because they made mistakes on Defense, Offense and ST’s that led to Raven TD’s. It was lost when an official in the endzone decided to keep his flag in his pocket instead of calling an obvious hold on the final Niner offensive play. Kap not being able to make a play at the end was just another failure on a day full of them.
Mavin,
Why do I get the feeling that if Smith was the starter you would be blaming the defense for giving up 34 points? “So you can blame who you want, but the facts and game film don’t lie.” Stop trying to sound like you know what you are talking about and actually study the facts first. The offense was superior in every single category in the postseason, while the defense basically fell apart compared to the regular season. The defense was supposed to be championship caliber, yet it was the offense that played like it during the postseason. Measure twice and cut once next time.
Offense
Regular season:
Points per game: 24.8
Yards per game: 361.8
Passing yards per game: 206.1
Rushing yards per game: 155.7
Postseason:
Points per game: 34.7
Yards per game: 473.3
Passing yards per game: 255.3
Rushing yards per game: 218
Defense
Regular season:
Points allowed per game: 17.1
Yards allowed per game: 294.4
Passing yards allowed per game: 200.2
Rushing yards allowed per game: 94.2
Postseason:
Points allowed per game: 29.7
Yards allowed per game: 398.7
Passing yards allowed per game: 306
Rushing yards allowed per game: 92.7
Big P,
Exactly.
Mavin,
CK is way down the list of culprits for the 49ers’ loss in the SB.
The illegal formation penalty on the first offensive play.
LMJ’s fumble.
Jacoby Jones’ TD catch.
Jacoby Jones KO return for TD, with brutal holding of Bruce Miller by two Ravens.
Not running the QB counter sweep in the final four plays, after the 49ers completely won the line of scrimmage before the whistle blew stopping the play the first time it was run.
In addition [the auto refresh has me jumpy]:
The refs in general. How is it not PI or D holding on the fade route to MC if it’s a PI on Culliver vs Smith [did anyone even examine if that ball was catchable in bounds, btw?].
I’m so sick of hearing, “The refs don’t want to decide the game.” Aren’t they also deciding the game if they don’t make a call that should be made? It works both ways. It’s just protection used by cowardly refs.
In case you can’t tell, I’m not completely over the 49ers losing the SB.
Ex,
Lol, I’m not completely over it either. I just don’t like it when people pop off about “facts” when it is obvious they aren’t presenting anything but their uneducated opinion.
Big P,
Yep.
Let’s give Crabtree some criticism for running the worst fade route of any professional receiver in the NFL. Instead of actually running the route, he ran directly at the defender, then tried to go for the fade route.
Matt,
It’s kind of hard to get away from a defender when he has a fist full of jersey in one hand and is putting an arm bar on you with the other.
Exgolfer, I agree completely that the play was a hold, but from the snap, Crabtree ran right at the defender instead of running a fade route. It wasn’t until he tried to break off the route and run a fade that he was held. Had he ran the fade from the onset, the hold wouldn’t have been as prominant and he would have been able to make a play on the ball.
The time in the Third Quarter was abysmal!!! Take the damn five year penalty. The second time out was bad too. If they had all three, they would have had a second chance to score at the end of the game. That’s all on Harbaugh.
I’ve said that for over 30 years. Time outs are too valuable to waste to save a mere 5 yards. Even back in high school we were taught if for some reason you can’t get the play from the sideline, you can still run a draw or a slant out of virtually any formation. Just get up to the line and go. The yardage can be made up, the time outs of course cannot.
Agree with ninermd.
Perhaps there should be a % given regarding how the games outcome was effected by officiating.
The Ravens KO TD was an absolute rip-off! Having one our players being mugged at mid-field in plain view of the official is hard for me to fathom even now. A call like this should never happen on such a big stage.
Sheesh!
It’s a shame a franchise cannot sue the league for malfeasance like that. How about suing players for single-handedly losing NFC championship games? Will never happen. Just have to get over it.
How about the Toronto Raptors getting absolutely hosed in the playoffs a few years ago?!?!? – the ref actually confessed, and went to jail, admitting that he was paid off by gambling interests to make terrible calls, costing the raptors the playoff series.
That was like a decade ago, and I’m still steamed!!!!
It was Frank Drebbin, Norberg, and their Police Squad buddies in disguise.
AMEN! There is NO WAY that SEVEN officials missed that, especially when the ball went right past where Miller was held to the point that his shoulder pads were exposed. Until the day I die, I will laugh hysterically every time the Ravens get ripped off on a call, and I hope that there are MANY, and tell their fans, “hey, it’s part of the game, they’re letting the players decide it”.
Not to mention… The yahoo article where they talked to refs that were upset they Didnt call the game. And the refs that did had a lot of marks in their scoring cards. All for diversity aka ” affirmative action” it’s a joke RG cracked to the heat about not enough black coaches…. Which is a fair subject. But the best men should be working the job. NOT skin color! Pathetic!
Bowe got 5 years with Chiefs.
With no parole?
I’ve seen all of this statistical BS before, but the problem with it is that it doesn’t clearly address every possibility. Yes, the “average” play gets 4 yards, but 4th and 2 on your own 12 is not an “average” play. Tensions are higher, the Ravens defense will more than likely blitz, as they did on their 5 at the end of the game, you have a second year QB who is still learning his reads and getting used to making quick AND correct decisions, crowd noise will be a huge factor, and the odds of not making it, are high enough with a consequence that is extremely detrimental. By this reasoning we should all play Russian Roulette because with only one bullet in the barrel, you stand an 83.3% chance of winning.
The difference between going for it on 4th and playing russian roulette is huge. You have absolutely nothing to gain by putting a gun to your head. There are huge gains to be made in field position, time of possession, and score if you go for it on fourth. Plus the added psychological benefits by showing your players that you aggressively want to win, and believe in their ability.
Also consider that the offense was playing better than the defense at that point, so who do you want to have on the field?
“You have absolutely nothing to gain by putting a gun to your head.”
You’ve never met my sister-in-law.
LOL.
Sounds like you’d have more to gain if you put the gun to her head. But alas, you have to think of the potential consequences as well.
We used to have a character on here who called himself Shootme. Wonder what happened to him?
MSC,
How big of a pain in the ass could your sister-in-law be to make you want to shoot yourself?
Btw, in case you did not read Barrows today, he wrote about Goldson’s possible replacements. Did not include Culliver on his list. Here were his options:
C.J. Spillman. He is every bit as hard-hitting and aggressive as Goldson, and the 49ers have used him in goal-line and short-yardage situations the last two years. He got a lot of practice with the first-team defense in 2011 when Goldson was shopping himself in free agency and Reggie Smith was hurt. However, he lacks game-day experience and to this point has been more of a tackler/enforcer than a player who understands the nuances of coverage.
Darcel McBath. He’s a restricted free agent this year who has a history with defensive backs coach Ed Donatell. McBath mostly was limited to special teams this year. But it’s noteworthy that when Goldson had to briefly leave a game it was McBath who replaced him. The 49ers are likely to use the lowest-possible tender to retain McBath for one more season. He was a second-round pick by Denver in 2009.
Trenton Robinson. The team’s 2012 sixth-round pick mostly spent his rookie campaign in learning mode. He garnered high praise from Jim Harbaugh at the scouting combine (Really, though, when has Harbaugh ever not dunked one of his players in praise) and showed a nose for the football at Michigan State. He’s small for the position (5-9, 193), which would make for decidedly short safety tandem with Donte Whitner (5-10, 208).
Michael Thomas. Thomas spent the season on the 49ers practice squad but garnered interest from other squads by the end of the season. Like Robinson, Thomas is sub-6-foot, but as you would expect from a Stanford product, he’s also very smart. Vic Fangio coached Thomas at Stanford and is fond of him
Other. The safety position is solid both in free agency and the draft, which perhaps is why the 49ers feel secure in allowing Goldson to test the open market. It includes one of the two best safeties in the last decade and a half, Baltimore’s Ed Reed, as well as several college players expected to go in the first- or second-rounds like Texas’ Kenny Vaccaro, LSU’s Eric Reid, Florida’s Matt Elam and South Carolina’s D.J. Swearinger.
Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2013/03/if-goldson-departs-who-steps-in-at-free-safety.html#more#storylink=cpy
I am quoting.
Oh yeah, Barrows has a lot of credibility :)
You don’t think he does? He’s the best of the beat reporters, IMO. Who’s better?
I’m not counting Tim Kawakami, btw, since he’s not a beat reporter.
Barrows is hands down the best beat writer working the Niners…
I too would like to hear how Barrows lacks credibility.
My money is on Spillman to win the job, and Whitner can teach him the “Nuances of Coverage”.
Your point makes sense. But don’t you think their weakest link in the secondary is Whitner? Maybe they’ll draft his replacement and try to move him out as the year goes on?
Seattle, here I come…
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/04/anyone-yes-anyone-can-try-out-for-the-nfl/
If Chilo Rachal can sucker two teams into paying him 100′s of 1000′s of dollars then I’m a shoe in. If I flop my old butt on the ground and do the horizontal Dougie I’ll accidentally block better than he did.
I could have blocked better than Rachal even if I was handcuffed and put in a small chest.
MSC,
I would pay to see you try to block an NFL player.
Harbaugh has this thing about how he wants all the players to get 1% better every day. Well that applies to him too. Yes, the players have to go out and make plays, but he has to do a better job of putting them in a position to win. He’s way too emotional, almost like he’s pouting like a little kid. Even the whining about the bad non-PI called. Take the loss like a man. Don’t put your team in a situation where the refs can dictate the outcome.
Zzzzzz…
Great article by your dad here Grant.
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20130304/sports/130309824?p=3&tc=pg
Lol, Lowell should stick to eating lamb chops.
“One other thing. Alex Smith — remember him? — won’t be around giving Kaepernick the answers.” What a difference a year makes.
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20120307/SPORTS/120309592/1010/SPORTS?p=all&tc=pgall
Big P,
The link was to an article from a year ago, in which LC was stumping for the 49ers to sign PM. Where is the quote about Smith being gone from? Am I missing something?
Exgolfer,
I included the article because Lowell recently claimed that Smith gives Kaepernick the answers to football, which is ridiculous. Harbaugh gives Kaepernick the answers, just as he did with Smith. The link to last years article is funny because he claims that “If the 49ers don’t go after Manning — and it seems they won’t — it means one thing and one thing only. They are not trying to win the Super Bowl any time soon.” Lowell said of Smith, “Smith is holding back the 49ers’ offense — he is their lack and their limit. They need a better quarterback. They have a chance to get a better quarterback. Get Manning.” It’s funny that the QB that was holding back the offense is now the one that is giving CK the answers. Harbaugh is the man with the answers, and it seems to irritate Lowell because Harbaugh doesn’t sit down to tea and crumpets with him.
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20120307/SPORTS/120309592/1010/SPORTS?p=all&tc=pgall
Kaep just recently said that Smith was always in his ear asking if he saw what the safety was doing, what was the weakness in coverage, etc. I think that is what Lowell meant BigP. In other words, even though Harbaugh was a former QB, it helped that Smith helped in the mentoring as well. Kaep won’t have that next year. I think he’ll be fine though IMO.
So either in this case or last year LC was wrong about Alex. because how can u go from useless to invaluable in 1 yr? Funny how AS is still the reason 9ers wont win just for different reasons
The thing I really don’t like about LC’s latest article is the notion that Kap will get hurt because he is a “running QB”(a lot of people say this and it’s annoying). He then throws out the examples of Mike Vick and RGIII, two undersized guys that don’t slide or get out of bounds. How about Cam Newton? 32 straight starts. Kaep compares more favorably to Cam than those other guys. QB’s that don’t know what to do when a tackler approches( like AS turning his back and sitting down in front of Jo-Lon Dunbar) are the ones that get hurt.
Grimey regardless if CK is a runner or not QB’s inthe NFL get injured at a pretty high rate so either way there is a likelyhood that we will need a good BU
Bos9er,
Exactly. I guess you can get away with talking out of both sides of your mouth when nobody is listening.
Big P,
I didn’t see MWN’s link to the LC article.
also JH said AS coached up CK more than did JH or roman…
Honestly, I agree with #1. I say that because I remember thinking that we’re giving them a full two minutes to score on us again (Remember our secondary was getting TORCHED!). It’s not so much going for it on 4th and 4 as it was the play calling on the first three plays. It’s like we weren’t really trying to move the ball down the field…were just trying to get in the locker room for halftime.
Revis: “It would be awesome to play for 49ers.”
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/jets/west_point_hmvseMWAwfzFZYfrwhzQCO
Crabs,
If only he were sayong for 4 ars and 28 million. I say ww give up our 2 and keep him for a year. Let him get 16 mil per from soneone else. Other than that, he wont be coming here.
Crabs,
I have followed his contract situation over the years and he is all about his money. If I knew they could sign him to a reasonable contract, I would be all for it. I just don’t see him changing his stripes.
Glover Quinn good replacement for Goldson?
Anyone out there have an opinion of Cullen Jenkins. If the 9ers sign him will it mean they wont draft a DE\DT early in the draft? If they sign him how much should they pay? I think he would add solid depth to the DL rotation.
@ Old Coach
It depends on why Philly released him. Philly needs badly to improve their Defense but they cut Jenkins. Salary Cap casualty? Not effective? Effort? Trent and staff probably have enough info to read into Philly’s motivations so they can make their own judgement.
2nd question: even if they bring in Jenkins I think they’ll spend a pick in the first three rounds on DL.
It also depends on how much the Seahawks want him as well.
Just a reminder that Tom Gamble works for Philly now, so Trent and staff probably know everything about it.
Coach,
I posted last week when his visit was made public that he could be a decent pick up. Matches the Baalke type, solid veteran at an affordable rate to provide depth.
As for drafting a DE/DT early, I don’t think the urgency for that position is the same inside that building as outside of it….
Nicely put. If they need a starter, this is now a team that signs capable free agents with some tread left and drafts with a two to three year time expectation.
Jack
We heard that from Trent, and he didn’t sound like he was necessarily posing, but ’tis the season for innuendo, misinformation, disinformation, white lies, damned lies and statistics. We just have to watch free agency and not expect anything substantive in the first couple of days. Heck, Trent won’t know how to draft until he sees what happens in FA.
Sometimes this strategy wears on our patience about a particular player — Alex Smith, for example — but it’s the way to manage a successful business.
When A.S. is traded and Akers is cut the 9ers will have cut almost 12 mill of their cap. Are there any other players currently under contract who might be released? If they do get 15 to 20 mill beneath the cap will they use the cap room to sign outside talent or use it this year and next to sign current players to long term contracts?
Whitner, Rogers, Goodwin and Haralson are all candidates to be released and/or traded as well. I think they will concentrate on getting a replacement #1 CB after deciding on what to do with Rogers.
MidWest,
Why the urgency to cut Rogers?
I agree on releasing Goldston and Rodgers. This would enhance our chances at aquiring D.Revis, and I believe that Culliver could move back to his original position of Safety. Let’s see what we have in Robinson as well.
I don’t believe Revis appeals to them because of his ego, salary expectations, and ACL. I think they would be more likely to go after Asomugha, if he is released, or an up and coming free agent corner. They believe they can take talent and some experience, coach that player up, and put him in a role that will make him more successful.
I think Rogers will be either traded or have his contract restructured Jack, but we can’t rule out the possibility of him being released either, especially after he struggled covering shifty speedsters this season and the fact that Baalke is a great bargain shopper. Plus I am also trying to think like a NFL GM (and most likely failing miserably at it lol).
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000147048/article/free-agency-primer-ranking-the-cornerbacks
Midwest,
Why?
Rogers struggled, but cutting him saves very little and restructuring his deal will only make things more difficult later.
This is a move that has a very minute chance of occurring.
I answered that Jack. Though I don’t think any of the players should be cut, it cannot be ignored that their age and/or bad play last season does put them on the chopping block. And if Baalke finds a cheaper option via FA or the draft that can play at their level or better, then there will be players released.
My opinion is that Rogers should be cut. It has nothing to do with money.
We saw him play out of his mind in 2011 which also happened to be a contract year.
His play declined this past season. How many games do we have to watch him get picked on before we realize he’s done. For the 2013 season he will be 32 years old. Time to cut ties….
I agree with you, Bay. Rogers should not play for the Niners one way or another next season.
Rogers struggled, but cutting him saves very little and restructuring his deal will only make things more difficult later.
That’s why I think Rogers has a better chance of being traded than being released or restructuring his contract Jack.
Rogers struggled at times but I thought he was the best of the CB’s near the end of the season and in the playoffs. We also won’t get much in the way of cap relief cutting him this season so why do it? They can add a FA and/or draft picks without dumping Rogers.
how much cap room is need to sign 14 or 15 picks….is it 8-10 mill
This is just salt on the wounds..Everybody could always have done things better..i think when u get rite down to it..The refs didnt make the rite calls at critical stages in game..when the team was mounting that comeback..and go ahead drive..thats always gonna standout to me til the day I die.no helmet to helmet on crabtree,non holding on crabtree.If we had scored.I wouldve love to have our defense on field to finally shut flacco down to win that superbowl..Redemption..
With Revis, we may get a player who is at 80% coming back from injury. With Asomgha we get a player who has nothing left in the tank.
I would prefer Revis in this scenario. An 80% Revis makes him about 70% better than Asomugha in my opinion.
Revis will come in at a bargain because he wants a chance at a ring. There’s no way he gets a ring playing for the Jets and he knows this.
Not only does he want a chance to get a ring, he is also in a contract year. He will be a model citizen and give the effort of his life in attempts to get his last big pay day.
But how much will the Jets want for him Bay? Do we potentially mortage the future and possible dynasty for one Super Bowl? And even more terrifying, will the Jets only allow a trade for Revis if Tebow is included in it as well?
Hah MWN.
Jets GM: “Revis for a 1st round pick, or Revis and Tebow for a 2nd rounder.”
KNBR is reporting that David Akers will be released soon. Now that’s a big surprise :)
Updated off season moves:
Free Agents losses:
L.Davis
Ginn Jr.
R. Moss
T. Brock
RJF
I. Sopoaga
C. Haggans
L. grant
T.gooden
Cuts:
L. Divens
P. Haralson
D. Whitner
D. Akers
A. Dixon
Re-signed:
D. Walker
D. McBath
Free Agents Signings:
Chris Clemons(s)
Antwan Barnes(olb)
Adam Jones(cb)
Donnie Avery(wr)
Pat Sims(nt)
Jason Phillips(ilb)
PUP:
M. Manningham
Traded:
A. Smith
The rest come in the draft. I’ll make a new mock after the first week of free agency.
I tried to post this in the off season moves section but kept getting a 500 server error.
oops left out Goldson on the f/a list. /bonk it was too obvious I guess
This kid is projected to be a 7th rounder. Worth a sniff?
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/northern-iowa-terrell-sinkfield-runs-recordbreaking-4-19-141840831–nfl.html
I think he is worth it.
Lol, why?
He is a speedster despite his size and could be the next Colston The fact that he would only cost the team a seventh round pick makes the risk on him worthwhile BigP.
Midwest,
The guy couldn’t even break 500 receiving yards playing division 1-AA ball. NFL caliber players should absolutely dominate the lower levels of NCAA football. He didn’t do anything against inferior competition.
“I know my ability is good enough to be drafted. Once I get on that field, I know my ability will take over. Drafted or not, I know once I make a team and get in camp, I’m going to shine.”
This kid is delusional. He thinks he is going to shine in the NFL when he couldn’t do anything in the lower levels of the NCAA? No thank you.
Jerry Rice, former divsion 1-AA player
Average over last three seasons of college
90 catches
1421.66 yards
16 TD’s
Senior year:
108 receptions
1682 yards
27 TD’s.
Vincent Jackson is another example of an NFL caliber player dominating the 1-AA ranks:
http://www.totalfootballstats.com/PlayerRB.asp?id=1963
Celek hardly ever caught passes in college but has improved his pass-catching skills, so why can’t this kid be a diamond in the rough? But it’s up to Baalke and Harbaugh to decide that. Not me.
Midwest,
I hear you, but Celek was/is primarily a blocking tight end. That is how he was utilized, similar to ex-49er Billy Bajema. I just don’t get excited about NFL prospects from lower division schools that didn’t play at a high level in college. It almost never translates to the NFL. If the NFL and college are different planets, the NFL and division 1-AA are different solar systems.
I too have high hopes for Celek and believe he could very well be the guy they have in mind to replace Delanie “Johnny” Walker.
I just don’t get excited about NFL prospects from lower division schools that didn’t play at a high level in college. It almost never translates to the NFL.
Normally I would agree with you BigP but we’re talking about using a seventh round pick on Sickfield to find out if that holds true with him. That’s worth the pick. And at worst, he is an UFA rookie that the team brings into camp to see what he is capable of.
@ MidWest
UDFA? No Way! Raiders take him in the 1st with the #3 Overall!
LMAO. The bad part is that I can see them being dumb enough to do that.
Lol, you guys probably wouldn’t be far off if Al Davis was still around and that 40 was a legit 4.19.
Midwest,
My point is the kid really ran a 4.35-4.40 40 and didn’t produce at a lower level college. We never would have heard of him without the fake 40 time being thrown out there. Like you, I’m all about leaving no stone unturned, I just think this was a joke.
Looks like he was shot out of a cannon.
Bay,
The guy didn’t really run a 4.19.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/05/terrell-sinkfields-4-19-second-40-yard-dash-doesnt-pass-the-smell-test/
I’m starting to think that Terrell Owens must have marketed and is selling his own special 40 yard dash stop watch. Im pretty sure it has a dial to set it to what time you want it to read.
Manti Te’o needs that stop watch….. lol. Good catch. Still seems fast though.
From PFT:
“Scott Studwell, the Vikings’ director of college scouting, was also timing Sinkfield and told the Pioneer Press that Sinkfield is fast, but he didn’t break 4.3 seconds in any of his three 40-yard dash attempts.”
“He ran in the high 4.3s. He can run. He ran fast. He tested well,” Studwell said.
The guy couldn’t even break the 500 yard mark as a senior, playing 1-AA ball.
The funny thing is this guy was making it sound like he expected to run a 4.1, give me a break. These dudes are shameless in their self-promotion.
BigP
It doesn’t matter. I’d still take a chance on this kid with a 7th round pick. At the worse, he could be a ‘camp body’.
Nick,
What would your reasoning be for picking him over other receivers that produced at a higher level, against better competition?
BigP
If there were a better option available, I’d take it. however, this kid has speed + decent height. He’s not just a strait line speedster, but according to the scout quoted in the article, this kid has short area quickness. Can this guy be any worse than Ted Ginn at WR?
If Al Davis was still alive the Raiders would trade up to #1 to draft this guy.
I also agree with #1 (even though very few coaches would ever consider it). If the 9ers had gotten the 1st down they had the ball and a chance to go down the field and score.
If they don’t get it and the Ravens score (as they ultimately did anyway) the 9ers still would have gotten the ball back with time to score. To me it was a wash either way since a punt still gives the Ravens the ball near midfield, so why not go for 1st down. It was the most logical option.
#2 should have been a no-brainer since we had a field goal kicker that couldn’t kick field goals and 3 points was just not enough at that point. At the very worst the 9ers would have pinned the Ravens deep at their end of the field.
I think #3 should have been not running the ball out of the pistol in the last 3 plays of the game. A misdirection running attack would have probably worker since the Ravens were over-committing on the blitz. Passing the ball all three times was just stupid on so many levels. They had a chance to score and run the clock down to nothing at the same time. This misjudgment cost the 49ers 100% of the game.
You dont go for it fourth down there on your own 12..The game was still manageable at that point. I agree wit points #2 and 3..Since thats four down territory and a chance to milk clock..there should have been at least three run plays.. Or run, pass pass ,run…Run..run.run..then pass..Its all predicated how the second run goes..if the second run gets u at two yrd line or one..run a third time.if u dont get in endzone..on fourth down..qb sneak..or fake run and short pass
The only way you can disagree with any of those points is come up with a calculation that says that the chances of winning the game are improved by punting.
Matt says:
March 5, 2013 at 12:20 pm
‘Exgolfer, I agree completely that the play was a hold, but from the snap, Crabtree ran right at the defender instead of running a fade route. It wasn’t until he tried to break off the route and run a fade that he was held. Had he ran the fade from the onset, the hold wouldn’t have been as prominant and he would have been able to make a play on the ball.”
@Matt,
Bang, bang play. There was little time for finese on the play. CK had a defender coming right on him, so he threw as quickly as he could. Crabtree did not have time to make a fake move on the defender, all he could do is react to CK’ throw.
Considering the situation, there was little both CK and Crabtree could do.
I personally felt that had CK thrown a shorter pass Crabtree still would have had a play on it even though he was being tied down with the defender.
There were so many “if’s” in this game that could have easily turned the game our direction. I definitely won’t put it on just one play.
Well said CFC!
Whoops! I meant AES.
I am officially in love with Molly Qerim. Thank you NFL network.
Can some one explain to me the dislike of C. Rogers? He is a good CB, not great, but who will replace him? Some rookie who is projected to be good? Why do people believe that some rookie will always be better than an established pro? The fact of the matter is the draft is a crap shoot. About a third of first rounders don’t play for five years.
His play dropped off dramatically from 2011 to 2012. He constantly got picked on as the weak link.
I don’t anticipate that he is going to get better given that he will enter camp at 32 years old. Why not bring in a young CB that will earn less, and improve with experience?
Because you assume the rookie will be better without any NFL data to support that position.
I think we should draft some DB’s and let them compete against Rogers and the rest of the current players. I am against hoping they play better and having no backup if they don’t.
Im generally with you on the “dont cut a player unles u have a better replacement waiting in the wings” philosophy but when u factor in the expensive price tag for an aging player who is most certainly on the decline it might be prudent to bring in a young guy at cheap price who has a bigger chance of improving then CR does. Granted that player has to be close to where CR is now or its an unfair comparison
The salaries usually don’t kick in until the season starts, so i don’t think you cut a player like Rogers unless after training camp you are sure the rookie will play better.
So many fans think the new player will be better, when in fact the odds are they will not be as good. What is the % of rookies taken in the first 4rounds playing in the NFL for three seasons or more? It is probably around 50%. That means about half of the draftee in the first 4 rounds will not be good players much less impact players.
@49er42 you’re right salaries are’nt payed untill the regular season starts but you have to be under the cap well before that.
coach:
do you know when you have to be under the cap?
not exactly but i’m trying to find out
49er42 i was wrong a team does’nt have to be under the cap well before the start of the season. they have to be under about 3 or 4 days before the season starts
The combined salaries of the top paid 51 players on the team have to be under the cap at the beginning of the league year (March 12).
The full 53 have to be under the salary cap at (or near) the final cuts.
coach
thanks for that information.
So I see no reason to cut Rogers as some suggest, unless they need the cap room to sign a free agent DB:Revies.
I would like the Niners to get:
a. a pass rusher;
b. a Defense lineman;
c. a couple of DB’s
d. a kicker;
e. an interior O lineman
d. a QB with at least 5 years of NFL experience;
f. oh yea, another pass rusher; you can’t have too many.
Mostly thru the draft, but some thru free agency.
I think a pass rusher will help cover up the weak links in the secondary. I expect Rogers to be cut going into the season when teams have to get down to a 53 man roster. I suspect the team will use Rogers to help mold their corners and any rookies they draft.
I think this coaching staff has shown they are willing to coach up talent.
They don’t need a 5 year veteran as a backup QB. I suspect they’ll find a bargain in the fourth round. If that doesn’t happen, I expect them to look for one who goes undrafted.
I think they have some real options to trade up and pick up a premier pass rusher who will impact the team immediately.
No matter what, it’s going to be an awesome draft to watch.
I think it is a mistake to have as your most experienced QB a player who has started 10 games.
49er42 is about to become Chief42. Follow your hero
49er42 i agree i would like to see the 9ers sign a vet BU J. Johnson comes to mind
Bye bye Goldson….
A great piece by TK for all the Revis heads….
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2013/03/05/49ers-and-darrelle-revis-the-right-trade-price-point-and-the-big-name-cb-super-bowl-fallacy/
Love it.
Either of you two think there is a team out there willing to pay Goldson $8 million a year? If so, who? I would so love to see him come back with his tale between his legs and resign again for $2 million. lol!
Unfortunately the entire NFC East for one Razor. The Rams could be another team as well. And there are probably teams out there that are willing to pay him the salary of a FS but convert him into a SS.
Lots of talk here about replacing Rogers, but, gentlemen, consider that fact that we almost won the SB with the crew we had despite the facts that –
1. We played five of the best passing offenses.
2. Our kicking game was mediocre.
3. Our special teams weren’t nearly as good as the year before.
4. Versus the year before, we were mediocre in take aways.
So what I think we need the most is to “refresh” the pass rush and dramatically improve special teams, whether thru free agency or the draft. In my opinion, improving the secondary comes second, but even here I think its more an issue of safety than cornerback. Goldson will have to be replaced, and I would like to see them replace Whitner, although I think keeping Walker is more important than replacing Whitner. We also have issues at 2nd and 3rd wide receiver, but I think improving that comes last.
To “refresh” the pass rush, I mean finding a player worthy of rotating with J. Smith and McDonald, and a rusher to rotate with Aldon.
Booooo George! You are talking sense and that has little place.
I was one who harped on Rogers a lot over the course of the season, but as the season wore on I would take him over Culliver all day. Rogers may struggle against some of the top slot guys in the league, but he rarely struggled while playing on the outside.
By comparison, Culliver was exposed as early as the Giants game as a guy who can be beat deep, and when the chips were down in the playoffs the opposition took advantage of him for big plays over the top.
The 49ers need to draft/sign two corners in this offseason. One who can replace Perrish Cox and compete with Rogers as the slot corner, and a second who can be the possible replacement for Rogers or Brown in the next year or two.
Jack, do you think they can put Culliver and Cox to better use?
Like at safety?
No. Culliver was moved to CB for a reason and Cox doesn’t have the body IMO.
George,
I would rather see that with Culliver because he his younger and has experience from college at safety.
Didn’t Eric Davis say Culliver was gonna be a star corner early this year?
George CB’s are alot like QB’s when things go bad they receive an unfair amount of the blame and Rogers seems to be everybodies favorite whipping boy at this time. I predict he will be back next yr and as long as we take care of our pass rushing issues he will have a solid yr along with the rest of our CB’s
Well said, as usual.
So OC then you think hes worth $7 million this season?
@Bay i stand in the middle on Rogers. No i do’nt think he is worth 7 mill but i also do’nt think he played nearly as badly as some here do. I would’nt be surprised to see his contract renegotiated. His play like all off the DB’s will improve greatly if the pass rush returns to its mid season level or hopefully even better.
Rogers played so poorly this season that at one point Grant wrote an article asking if he should be benched. At $7 million this season, Rogers is gone…..
Do you think he will be traded like in my second mock draft or outright released Bay?
How do you trade something of no value at the bargain price of $7 million for the season?
Simply because the Eagles will need a vet CB Bay, especially if they want to contend this season. Rogers could come cheaper than the options available on the FA market as well. Despite his bad play, he was one of the better CBs in the league last year and I think he would have the value of a second round pick in any type of trade.
Rogers played so poorly this season that at one point Grant wrote an article asking if he should be benched. At $7 million this season, Rogers is gone…..
I know it’s crazy to suggest, but do you think Grant might have….gasp…overreacted at the time? There was never a consideration to bench Rogers (who were they going to replace him with?) and he was our best CB for a good part of the season and into the playoffs.
If they sign a vet CB, then you may be right and he is released, but I don’t think they save all that much on the cap if they release him this year do they? Either way, he is likely in his last season with the Niners which means they need to draft a couple of prospects to develop for 2014.
Nick:
What are you talking about? Did I say Alex should stay here? Did I suggest it? Having a vet backup QB is smart and has nothing to do with Alex going to the Chiefs; which I think is a good idea.
Me thinks thou protest too much…..
The defense was run into the ground during the season. No substitutions. That’s why they lost. Bad coaching.
This post is so silly in every way that I cannot help but laugh!!! Yes in the professional sports coaches are held responsible for the performance of the team! However I just would like to know which coach in the NFL or even high school would attempt to go for the first down on their own 12 yard line during the second quarter on 4th and 4!
Was Jim H responsible for the first play of the game that was wiped out by very stupid penalty! How about the blown coverage by the secondary! How about the blunt none holding call on the first play of the third Qt by the Ravens that resulted in a TD! How about the last play CK changing the play at the line to a pass to Crabtree! When is the team and the players are held responsible for performing under pressure on the biggest stage of professional sports!
We are extremely lucky to have Jim H as our head coach. He will continue to improve and learn from his mistakes. GO NINERS
Latest reports I’m reading are saying Revis is getting traded and the Falcons are now in the mix along with the 49ers.
Atlanta will be a serious contender for Revis. The recently released top heavy players to give themselves some cap space. And have to be considered as a tesm that can make a strong push to get to the Superbowl.
Revis will no doubt be interested.
Turf not good for his knee. The 49ers beat them in their house without Revis. Atlanta has shown they are not afraid to make a bold move. Should prove interesting…..
It would be a bold move for them, but they were bold in acquiring rights to draft Julio and it paid off. If they get Revis can they still sign Steven Jackson too?
Good question Brotha. Atlantas’ GM has proven formidable, but I suspect Baalke has something up his sleeve.
If Atlanta lands Revis and Steven Jackson they will be a tough team to beat! I would like Niners to go after Jackson
Can I please borrow whatever crystal ball is apparently being passed around that is showing that Revis will actually be as good as he was before the injury?
Is Atl really only a slight upgrade at RB and an injured CB away from being hard to beat? Hardly.
Atlanta’s problem on D is not the secondary. Their main problem is lack of size upfront and lack of pass rush. Revis is not going to help in any of those areas. Also, replacing Michael Turner with Steven Jackson isn’t going to change their offense dramatically.
I disagree! Upgrading their running game would put a tremendous pressure on the defenses to stop their offense. Also their lack of size was not an issue when they beat so many teams last year and almost beat our team! There is no crystal ball to predict how a player is going to perform however on paper Revis and Jackson will be an upgrade vs Roberson and Turner!
If atl trades for Revis they only have 7 picks this yr and have a huge need for a TE and a DE. If they give up a 1st and a 2nd they will have some enormous holes to fill without a pick untill around # 95
OC,
I would bet that Gonzalez comes back this year, making their TE needs a little less of a priority.
Hammer I agree with you about G coming back one more year to win a Super Bowl!
Chris Mortensen is reporting that the Niners are not real interested in Revis.
Report on KNBR is that the Eagles will release Asomugha today.
The same one who said the 49ers do not have a trade partner for Alex Smith?
It might not be today. As per PFT:
“Still, Eskin says the Eagles eventually will cut Asomugha. And he’s most likely right. As we understand it, the decision is coming in a few days.”
Glad to hear it. The Revis salary cap and/or draft pick price was too high.
Grimes could be the guy Baalke targets given that he’s coming off an injury and might be had at a bargain.
Any report on how Cullen Jenkins visit went yesterday?
I haven’t seen any. Btw, I was just on Mike Sando’s blog and saw he reported Richard Seymour is seen as a good fit by some. I am quoting: “While there’s broad consensus the 49ers will want to use the draft to supplement their defensive line, Horton and Yates see former Oakland and New England defensive lineman Richard Seymour as a good fit in free agency. Seymour is coming off a hamstring injury. That could lower his price on the market, which would be important. The 49ers already have $8 million in 2013 cap space committed to Justin Smith. How much could the team justify allocating to Seymour, possibly as a rotational player? Seymour had been playing better than 75 percent of the defensive snaps when healthy in recent seasons. He’s 33 years old, same as Smith. The contract Seymour signed with Oakland is voiding, making him a free agent. His cap number was $8.8 million last season. It was scheduled to hit $19.1 million in 2013, but all parties had to know the Raiders would let the deal void before assuming that kind of charge.”
I mentioned Seymour as a guy Baalke should be interested in a month ago. Not many on here agreed with me at the time.
He’s not going to start over McDonald or Smith at either end position which means he’ll be a situational pass rusher so he’ll only be playing 50% or less of the defensive snaps. We’re paying Justin $8million to essentially play almost every defensive snap we’re not going to give a 33 year old who doesn’t want to practice a big bag of money just to play on third down.
Let a 4-3 defense overpay for this guy to play DE for them instead.
If he would play that role for Haralsons’ salary, it would help keep that line fresh without missing a beat.
If you want to put him at OLB I’d still rather have Brooks and Aldon rushing then him.
I get a lot of flak for pigeon holing players into schemes but to me that guy is a 4-3 DE and that’s the kind of defense he needs to go play for.
Razoreater says:
March 6, 2013 at 9:15 am
If he would play that role for Haralsons’ salary
—————————
He made 8.8 last year and was scheduled to make 19, I’m guessing he’s not going to be excited about taking 2.8.
So much of this is determined by supply and demand. From what we observe of Baalke, he budgets for a slot and then waits for the market to come to him. A man with extreme discipline and ice in his veins.
There’s also the Super Bowl carrot, that is, playing for a ring. How much is that worth to a high achieving guy who is already set for life?
M’kay…
@George
You’ve got that right!
@CFC
No one implied he would start.
He’s not just a 4-3 DE.
I’m not suggesting he would play for that salary, I’m making a hypothisis as to what monetary value Baalke might place on that role.
You’re probably right George, Richard Seymour who doesn’t even like to practice definitely seems like the type of player to take a $6 million dollar pay cut to go from being a starter to a third down rusher simply to play for a ring.
Razoreater says:
March 6, 2013 at 9:43 am
I’m not suggesting he would play for that salary,
Razoreater says:
March 6, 2013 at 9:15 am
If he would play that role for Haralsons’ salary, it would help keep that line fresh without missing a beat.
Yea, actually that is exactly what you suggested.
Seymore is a bum!” G Cohn
Lol still laughing about that one
Coffee, do I detect some cynicism there? I see your point. We’ll just have to see.
@CFC
Do you always have to be argumentative and bitchy?
I realize it has to be tough having your own quotes used against you and all but does that really make me argumentative and bitchy or should you just pay closer attention to what you’ve already said before opening your mouth again.
@Coffee if for losers
Here we go again. Does anyone have a pacifier for the baby 49er?
I do not need you to tell me what I said or what I meant. Does that thought ever make the trek across the desert know as your mind? Check your braincells, you may need to add water. If you need assistance you can call me at 1-800-Who-Cares.
@coffee is for losers
Why don’t you go back to replying on your own posts and leave mine alone since they seem to get your panties in a bunch. Your vaginas showing. Booooob!!
Clearly you simply cant handle being proven wrong and are now throwing a temper tantrum and resorting to name calling. Nice job.
I’m sorry if I’m holding you up from contradicting yourself further or trying to pass off someone else’s opinion as your own. Please continue your fine work here.
@coffee is for losers
Hey why don’t you start a section on how the 49ers should go get your boy Michael fockin Turner? I just saw him at the gas station trying to fill up his tank. LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!
Please keep talking, you’re not at all making yourself look or sound bad in anyway.
@coffee is for losers
Here I’ll spell it out for you. PICK UP SEYMOUR ON A ONE YEAR BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL PRICE TO PLAY A PART OF A ROTATIONAL SCHEME TO REST STARTERS. Even you can’t spin that into a perpetual lie. Unless your the magic bitch right?
@coffee is for losers
You mean like when you comment on your comment, and then comment on that comment, and keep catching yourself perpetuating the wrong information.?
Keep going, you’re really on a roll. You’ll be easy to put down at nap time today.
Not only are you a wanker, you’re a stalker too… Piss off!
@coffee is for losers days of his lives….
Once upon a time, a young man went to the circus. He was very excited, as he lived in western Manitoba and had never seen a circus before; the kind of town where you shave and the trolly stops. Anyway, as circus days drew nigh, the young man grew ever more excited. He arrived before dawn to get the best seat in the house, and was seated hours before the first trapeze act.
Finally, the trapeze artists gave an awe-inspiring performance, the elephants danced, and the lion tamer tamed. At last, the clowns came out in full regalia and green hair. They rode around by the gross in a purple volkswagon. The volksie pulled up to center of the ring, and an overweight clown with orange hair, acne, and a purple nose advanced to the podium:
“Will the person in section A, row Y, seat 42 please stand up?”
The young man looked at his ticket, and to his surprise, he was sitting in that very seat. The young man stood up.
Clown sez, “Wellllll, there’s the horse’s ass, now where’s the rest of the horse?”
The man, dumbfounded, stood for a moment, then made his way quickly through crowd and out of the tent. Returning home, the man wept for days, and mourned the loss of dignity and honor. Eventually reason overcame his grief and the man grew determined. “I’m not going to get mad, I’m going to get even, and avenge the honor of myself, my family, and this town,” exclaimed the man. He picked up the curriculum guide for the University of Nevada at Las Vegas (UNLV) correspondence courses and started to read.
Eventually his eyes came to rest on an advert for a class in “Quick Wit Retort.” “Learn how to use those snappy comebacks to your advantage, now!” So the man sent in his $19.95 and soon received the course materials. In a few weeks, the man mastered the materials, and sent the final back to UNLV.
Much to his surprise, a registered letter arrived from the president of UNLV. It read:
Dear Sir: We are utterly flabbergasted at your performance in Quick Wit Retort 101. We would be most gratified if you could come to UNLV to complete your degree with our fine academic institution. Here’s a check to cover your expenses.
To make a long story short :-), the man made straight A’s in the QWR program. He was awarded numerous distinctions, and when he graduated, the graduation speaker Ed Meese awarded the man the Presidential Medal of Outstanding Quick Wit Retort, signed by Ronnie himself!
Some days afterward, Harvard University sent a lear-jet to pick the man up for an interview. The graduate admissions officer didn’t mince words. “If you complete our masters/doctoral tenured track program in QWR, you will never have to worry about money again,” said he. Needless to say, the man promptly moved to Cambridge.
In 5 years, the man had finished his doctorate. By this time, the man was known throughout the world as the leading expert in Quick Wit Retort. Word had even reached western Manitoba, which made his mother very proud. Everyone from Pentagon pundits to Beltway bandits consulted the man on technical questions of QWR.
One day, while sitting at his desk reading his hometown newspaper, the man noticed that the circus was coming to his hometown again. An evil smile crossed the man’s face. “Siegfried,” cried the man to his assistant, “We must be away to Manitoba. Ready the jet!” As the plane crossed the downlands of Michigan, the man savored the moment of victory that was to be his.
The man arrived at the circus tent very early, making sure to get the seat in section A, row Y, seat 42.
Finally, the trapeze artists gave an awe-inspiring performance, the elephants danced, and the lion tamer tamed. At last, the clowns came out in full regalia and green hair. They rode around by the gross in a purple volkswagon. The volksie pulled up to center of the ring, and an overweight clown with orange hair, acne, and a purple nose advanced to the podium:
“Will the person in section A, row Y, seat 42 please stand up?”
The man glanced at his ticket. This time he was ready.
Clown sez, “Wellllll, there’s the horse’s ass, now where’s the rest of the horse?”
The man rose to his feet, full of confidence. He thrust out his chest and said in the loudest voice you can imagine:
FOCK YOU, CLOWN!!!!
Thanks for making it easy for me, I was going to have to take time to show how you’re just a little pud knocker but you did that yourself in spades today. Thanks for being you.
coffee for losers:
Ahhhh did I hurt the little 49er whiners’ feelings?
Funny headlines:
Report: 49ers, Falcons among teams interested in trading for Darrelle Revis (two hours ago)
49ers have minimal interest in Revis (15 minutes ago)
Cloak and dagger at this point Adam….things will get sorted out here in less than a week. I hope Baalke has a brilliant free agency and draft.
I think it’s media crack Adam. They can’t help themselves and have to put possibilities out there even if the teams involved have no intention of doing it. Mort has an article today quoting a source from the Niner organization saying they have maybe a .001 percent interest at most and won’t be making the trade for obvious reasons including his salary to resign along with the compensation it would take to get him. They also like the depth of the CB class in this draft so this Revis talk is a whole lot of blather being passed around by bored media with vivid imaginations.
If they do take a shot at a vet CB, there is a lot of them available in FA.
Maybe they’re trying to run up the price for the Jets so that the Falcons overpay. :P
Good read on Matt Barrows blog this morn. Especially for those who feel the need for a little Revis in their life.
Good read indeed Old Coach. I maintain a secondary that can cover just a few seconds more would also improve the pass rush. You have a need for a better pass coverage FS, and you have Brown, Whitner and Rogers with contracts up next year. Having said that, I am not too naive to realize the 49ers need another versatile DT/DE who can on occasion collapse the pocket. These areas can be addressed with bargain free agents and early draft day. But what has not been talked enough about is the lack of scheme on Fangios’ part. He needs to be more innovative and start using those zone blitz’s more.
I wonder if you can teach an old dog new tricks. I have the same question about Roman. Why does his offense have to be so complicated?
Razor i agree regarding Fangio and his schemes also his over working of his starters
That’s a good point about the overworking of his starters. It worked the year before — what a performance in the NFC championship!! — but could that have been because they were better rested? They had a lot more takeaways and played fewer good passing teams. Regarding last year’s New England game, people point to J. Smith’s injury as the beginning of the decline of the pass rush. But what’s not mentioned is the great no huddle offense the Pats switched to because they got so far behind. That really gassed our defense, followed by being on the field so long against Seattle.
Thanks. I just took a look. Barrows is knowledgeable and shrewd, and he has a good sense of humor. I always enjoy reading his Q&A sessions.
Coach Harbaw has an enormous monkey on his back. He will be looking over his shoulder at the Super Bowl loss all next year. Sad.