It would be a waste for the 49ers to keep all 12 of their draft picks, plus the three compensatory picks which can’t be traded, for a total of 15 selections, because there is no way all of those players could make the Niners’ roster or practice squad.
The 49ers could improve more by packaging picks to trade up in the first round this year or to trade for a first round pick next year. Trent Baalke cannot passively accumulate picks because the Niners will be facing a more difficult schedule including an improved NFC West.
If the 49ers choose to trade up this year, they should get a defensive back, not a defensive lineman. Top CB prospects Dee Milliner and Xavier Rhodes could start and play every down for the 49ers. Any defensive lineman the Niners could draft – Sheldon Richardson, Jesse Williams, Alex Okafor, etc. – would play about 30 percent of the snaps at nose tackle or subbing just in nickel situations.
49ers RSS feed
Loading ...
This smacks of a Coby Fleener type thread…
The elite franchises stay on top because they are better at identifying talent throughout the draft and know the true value of draft picks. Grant thought the Niners should have traded up to the teens to pick Fleener last year and that would have been a disaster. They picked Jenkins, who didn’t do anything last year but also wasn’t expected to do much. Fleener went to the Colts in the second round, where he made little impact despite playing with his college QB, Andrew Luck. He was outperformed by their third round TE pick and missed a quarter of the teams games. Grant said he would be a perennial Pro-Bowler and offensive rookie of the year. I thought drafting Fleener with their pick would be okay, but I didn’t agree with moving up to get him. In hindsight, even taking him with their first round pick would have been a mistake, and moving up to get him would have been a disaster. They would have surrendered a bunch of picks for a player that would not have seen the light of day behind Davis and Walker, and wasn’t a complete tight end. The Niners have a very good front office that has made very good decisions, I trust them to do a great job with this draft.
always said last year fleener just doesn’t have good feet strength (and it showed itself in the cone drill) and never agreed he would be a good pick for niners
Big P, you are always the voice of reason! I respectfully disagree with Grant and his opinion to jump up to pick one high draft! In today’s NFL teams must draft high potential players in the later rounds in order to be successful. We can not manage the cap by going after high profile players. Just take a look around the league and you will see a lot of very talented players that were drafted from third to 7th round and some of them were not even drafted!!!
I trust Trent and Jim H to make the right decision depending on what they see in the players. And its interesting how Jenkins is already labeled a bust! Do you remember VD and how everyone called him a bust in the first few years! If Jenkins does not improve next year then we can assume he was not a great pick but at this point it is very premature to label him a bust! GO NINERS
Rocket,
If, not I
If you trust the front office, then you’d have to agree with the writer as Trent Baalke already stated “I don’t know that we need 14 rookies,” he said. “We need good football players.”
I would love for them to move up and secure:
1.) DT/DE Datone Jones who fits their mold of a versatile D-lineman, and the only 3-4 DE in the first round.
2.) CB Xavier Rhodes- 2nd best corner in the draft.
3.) Safety- Cyprien, Reed, Vaccaro, whomever they deem the best.
The niners could trade a 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th and still come out with 10 PICKS, and 3- 7th rounders where they can let there scouts fire shots at players who may have slipped or are coming off injury.
Grant thought Stephen Hill would go top ten and even bet me on it. To be fair however, I also liked Fleener and would have loved to see them draft him there.
I don’t disagree with the concept of trading up. I just don’t think you do it with the top picks. You do it with the 5′s through 7′s to move up or to get picks in 2014. The only trade I’d make with one of the top two picks is for a 1st in 2014.
Another thing you can’t do is look at how much a player will play right away. It’s about drafting the best available talent; not who will play the soonest. The players drafted this year will be the ones to step in next year and the year after. In a draft that many draftniks have labeled as light at the top but deep, there’s little reason to trade up when you can stay put and get two players of similar talent instead of one.
Draft Fleener with their pick at #30 that is.
Rocket,
I agree. The top of the draft doesn’t have the can’t miss prospects that are worth trading up for, but there are a lot of good players overall.
Rocket,
I you’re trying to say when any of us think we know, we don’t know, then I agree with you.
If, not I
Rocket,
Experts say this is a deep draft, however there always players who stand out and depending on where you are drafting, you will not have a shot at the players who separate themselves from others. Basically we’ll have to move to get the stand out players/players targeted by Harbaugh and Baalke. 14 picks allows them to do move up and down, but mainly, target players and go after them.
In last years draft, I was against the Niners taking Fleener. I predicted – at the time – that the top5 TEs of last year’s draft were nearly equivalent. Anyway, Stephen Hill landed on a bad team. The dysfunctional nature of the Jets offense had more to do with his performance or lack there of. I still think that Hill will be a better WR than AJ Jenkins. In fact, we passed up on many WRs that could turn out to be better than Jenkins. That pick sucked.
If he performs well this year this pick won’t suck. They had almost no open positions last year. They selected Jenkins with an eye on the future. If he doesn’t do anything this year, then it is time to be critical.
I agree Grant. Trade up to target a top DB and draft for d-line depth in the lower rounds. They should try to turn their 15 picks in to about seven selections, either by using the surplus as currency to trade up to pick better players, or by trading in to a higher position in next year’s draft. I trust Baalke and his group to play this the right way.
I love the pass rushers and their athleticsm in this class. I think the niners should draft a physical corner like Jamarr Taylor in the second round. I disagree with Grant and I think they should draft a pass rusher. A pass rusher can protect both sides of the field by getting after the qb, while a great corner can only lock down one. I also think that the secondary wasn’t a problem until the niners couldn’t generate pass rush. I am not alarmed that the niners gave up a lot of yards but the points is a big stat.
That is a worthy quote.
“A pass rusher can protect both sides of the field by getting after the qb, while a great corner can only lock down one. ”
Totally agree with it.
Niners/Img – Why not eliminate secondary all together than? Entire field will be locked down! You guys are geniuses. Tell me more…
Crab its true though.
When Aldon was beasting on poor J’marcus Webb in the MNF game, my grandmother could have played corner and held her own. Conversley when Cowboy got hurt and aldon was hobbled and not rushing the passer the top young corner in the NFL (according to Grant) Culliver got whipped up and down the field.
Its no coincidence that of the last 10 SB winning teams only one (GB, woodson and #38) had a pro bowl CB on the field but half a dozen had a probowler DE or rusher
Akers has been officially released. Funny how I got that on FB and not on a blog.
In fairness to this blog, since the Super Bowl lost, have not been on much.
There’s no question that the 49ers will be trading draft picks. I expect them to target the area where this years draft class has the most value. It’s questionable that the best value is in the top fifteen to twenty picks.
I don’t expect them to move into the teens for a first round pick, but what do I know? Maybe they will move to the mid or high twenties.
From what I saw this past season, Coby Fleener was the second best rookie tight end on the Colts roster.
Other than Milliner and Rhodes, I don’t think there are any DBs the Niners should trade up for in the first round.
I think that there is Desmond Trufant who his a true cover man. I think Milliner is one of the best players in the draft. I think that Rhodes will either be an Dominique Cromartie or Antonio Cromartie
I’ll be surprised if they move at all, but even more surprised if they move up more than two or three spots.
Rhodes isn’t a 1st rounder, I like Taylor he’s a sure tackler and physical with good instincts and change of direction
Mostly I agee with Grant’s statement. Truant might be a smaller move up, and so might be an acceptableq value.
I agree.
Trade up to draft Xavier Rhodes. Draft DL and WR, then Tyrann Mathieu to cover slot receiver.
Not sure of your take but do you want the 49ers to trade up?
No I think he’s demanding they trade up.
Yeah, 4 times in less than a week. We all get the point by now.
You guys really think Grant feels the 49ers should trade up?
Only if the 9er’s find another team willing to trade with them….with the newly structured rookie salary limits, it may not be as easy to trade up as we may think…now, the teams have very little concern about what a 1st rounder is gonna cost them….in any event, TB needs to find a team to trade with, that has a pick in the area he and JH believe their targeted player will be available….that is unless said player is taken prior to making the trade, or, taken before the 9ers are on the clock should the trade be consumated before draft day…lots of variables to consider.
My opinion is that it’s about numbers. Get 6 new bodies in camp and maybe two can start and one makes the practice squad.
Get 10 bodies in camp and we might find 4 that make the final roster and two that make the practice squad.
It’s about quantity as well as quantity. It’s about continuously filling the funnel with young inexpensive talent. We may not have the urgency to do that today, but when CK and our Oline need to get paid, you’ll see what I mean.
Jesus,
I meant it’s about quality and quantity.
I understood what you meant by context.
Couldn’t resist.
I would be surprised to see Baalke make a move up the draft board that high. I would rather he get an opportunity to trade down for a 2014 1st Round pick from a weak team. Rounds 2-4 is where the 49ers can be aggressive and acquire the help they need. Keep accumulating future draft picks is a wise strategy.
I agree the ‘Niners should trade up but strongly disagree that a defensive back is the way to go. A stud tackle or end who could collapse the line in the manner of Justin Smith would do wonders for the defensive backfield. Games are won and lost up front. It’s no surprise that after the play of the defensive line tapered off late in the season and in the Super Bowl (no sacks for the Smiths in how many games?) the deficiencies in the defensive backfield were exposed.
I like Ray McDonald but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that one of the rookies couldn’t beat him out for a starting job.
McDonald is the defensive line version of Ahmad Brooks.
That is the funniest statement I’ve read on this blog in weeks. LMFAO!! No, let me qualify that…the funniest and most idiotic.
You should try reading your own stuff more often.
Yea, you’re probably right though, it would be impossible for a rookie to beat 28 tackles with 10 assists and 2.5 sacks right? I mean those numbers are freaking epic now way ever a rookie could come in and beat those.
McDonald is a good player – his stats don’t tell the whole story. He’s good against the run and can generate pressure as a pass rusher.
You are too kind Scooter…
Scooter_McG says:
March 6, 2013 at 5:35 pm
McDonald is a good player – his stats don’t tell the whole story. He’s good against the run and can generate pressure as a pass rusher.
————————-
Yes he can but so can a lot of players that play the position Scooter, the stats show that he is a good player but hardly a great one. Can you say for 100% that there isn’t a kid in the first round that can match his play? I never said McDonald was bad or not useful I simply suggested that if we moved up in the draft you cant say for certain that we couldn’t find a DL that could also be ‘good’ against the run and generate a pass rush while managing more then 38 combined tackles. Grant thinks any DL in the first round would have to sit behind the starters and I’m not certain that’s the case. I’m not saying we’ll find anyone that’s gonna knock Smith out of the rotation but Mcdonald is hardly in the same category as Smith.
Razoreater says:
March 6, 2013 at 5:37 pm
You are too kind Scooter…
—————-
And you’re too ignorant to come up with a counter argument of your own that doesn’t involve name calling or insults.
Oops, you’re not going to off on another temper tantrum now are you?
Coffee, you are right, McDonald is a good but not great player. He’s starting calibre. If the 49ers find a rookie that can beat him out or even split snaps with him I’d be ecstatic.
You should know better than to judge a 3-4 DE on those stats.
@coffee is for losers
Oops you did it again….“Ray’s a great player, I’ve got worlds of respect for him,” Boone said. “He’s strong, he’s fast, he’s quick – he’s the prototypical defensive end in a 3-4. I love watching him play, I love going against him. He’s a good gauge as to where I’m at, but sometimes I’m happy now that the season’s going on we don’t have to go against each other.”
Personally I already knew Ray was great at Florida let alone the 49ers, so I don’t need Alex Boones word on it.
Hey stat boy, tell me and all your adoring fans on here that hang on your every word, that you know better than Mr. Boone. Go ahead, JUST ONE TIME!!!
I don’t know if judge is the right word CB. I’m trying to suggest that it’s possible to find a rookie that can start on our DL without sounding like Im saying McDonald isn’t any good. I used the stats to show that production wise it is certainly possible to do better and that McDonalds intangibles although essential are not irreplaceable.
The stat boy wants to replace a great player with a college rookie. Booooob! LMFAO!!
Razoreater says:
Coffee’s for closers says:
March 6, 2013 at 5:57 pm
And you’re too ignorant to come up with a counter argument of your own that doesn’t involve name calling or insults.
March 6, 2013 at 7:03 pm
The stat boy wants to replace a great player with a college rookie. Booooob! LMFAO!!
————
Congratulations, it only took you 66 minutes to prove my point. Keep up the good work champ.
@coffee is for losers
The third member of the 49ers defensive front seven to win a team award in 2012 is left defensive tackle Ray McDonald who took home the well-deserved Hazeltine Iron Man honors. The award named for former linebacker Matt Hazeltine, a 13-year performer who played more seasons at linebacker than any other 49ers player, was given the past two seasons to Justin Smith.
This time, however, defensive coaches voted the honor belonged to McDonald who finished his sixth season with 106 tackles (7.5 for loss), 2.5 sacks and one forced fumble.
Hey stat boy, I heard you closed the drive through at the McDonalds you manage to cut costs!!! LMFAO!!!
@ CFC:
If you are using sack and tackle stats to say McDonald’s production could be better, then you are judging him on those stats, which isn’t the most meaningful way to evaluate a 3-4 DE.
I haven’t taken the time to read what goes into PFF’s Performance-Based Value number, so I won’t swear for its validity, but their number for Ray McDonald suggests that it would be more difficult to improve upon his performance than you think. His play in 2012 was valued at $7.5 million. The franchise figure for DTs is $8.45 million.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/04/performance-based-value-san-francisco-49ers/
“This time, however, defensive coaches voted the honor belonged to McDonald who finished his sixth season with 106 tackles (7.5 for loss), 2.5 sacks and one forced fumble.”
http://www.nfl.com/player/raymcdonald/2507191/profile
Might want to check those numbers again bucko.
“Hey stat boy, I heard you closed the drive through at the McDonalds you manage to cut costs!!! LMFAO!!!”
You are seriously retarded.
Will be interesting to see where that ranks him in the 3-4 DE standings Claude. It will be top 8 – Corey Liuget rated $6.2 million and PFF has him rated #8 (go to the San Diego page – he’s their highest rated player).
Calais Campbell (Az) is third at $8.6 million.
Now, I am confused. How can Campbell be third when JJ Watt (Hou) , Muhammed Wilkerson (NYJ) and Jason Hatcher (Dal) all come in with higher values? Maybe I’ll just wait for the interior DL report.
*Muhammad Wilkerson
I am no expert, but Margus Hunt looks like he could become a once-in-a-generation defensive lineman. 6’8, 275 and could get heavier, 4.6 speed. Some draftniks compare him to Justin Smith. Maybe you are right that one of your cornerbacks would be used right away. But I am thinking Hunt could rotate with Aldon and Ahmad as a rusher — how many passes could he bat down? — and play on the field-goal protection unit, all the time being tutored by Justin as his eventual replacement. With all their picks, maybe they can emerge from the first round with both.
They’ll call him The Mad Estonian.
If I’m not mistaken, Hunt had a knack for blocking kicks totaling something like 18? He’s awful raw, but so was PierrePaul, and the 49ers do have Tomsula….just might work, but I would be hesitant to take him in the first round.
I hear what you are saying, but he might not be that raw. Here’s a highlight video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72SLCNaHJco
I realize you have to consider the competition, but he’ll only get stronger and you can’t coach speed and those long arms.
He’s number 82.
92, sorry.
Relentless, reminds me of Haley
If he was 22 instead of 26, I’d like him a lot more.
I agree with you Grant on the trade up part but Shariff Floyd would be the guy. He would play more than 25-30% of the snaps, would replace JSmith as a disruptive force on the line, a high motor guy like Warren Sapp was.
Me like Floyd. Floyd good.
Funny!
I thought the “experts” view was this is a deep draft, but not many can’t miss talents, so why would the Niners trade up in the first round?
I think they are more likely to trade down to get more choices in rounds 2-4 and/or trade for draft choices next year.
Or like with CK7 move up a few spots to get the guy you have targeted
Is the tight end from Stanford in the draft this year? Is he a better bet than Fleener? Seems a good receiving tight end could give them a good 1-2 punch seems walker was open a lot but doesn’t have reliable hands….
But in any case D seems to be more of a need…..definately something wrong with the D staff needs to figure it out…..trust they will do the right thing.
Interesting article about the running back prospects in the draft: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/42700/60/nfl-draft-rb-tape-review
It would be interesting if the Steelers drafted Johnathan Franklin.
Interesting Le’veon Bell is not on that list.
He’s slow and has a lot of miles on him. 382 carries last year.
I just looked at it and Bell is #9.
Stephan Taylor at #7 would be the deal of the century. He’s an all-round player.
Johnath Franklin can’t pass block (or so I’ve read).
How to defend the read option? Gus Bradley: “The corners that press, it allows you to bring an extra player into the box to account for all the different option aspects, and that’s critical.”
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/3/6/4068694/nfl-read-option-offense-defending-rg3-russell-wilson
“Listening to front office personnel and coaches/scouts at the Combine, one talking point you kept hearing repeatedly was the importance of cover corners in the modern NFL. Specifically, long, physical cover corners that can play man-to-man on an island as teams bring an extra defender into the box to stop the read-option run.”
Press corners in the draft: Dee Milliner, Xavier Rhodes, Jordan Poyer, Leon McFadden.
David Amerson has the athleticism to do press, but he doesn’t have experience. Johnathan Banks could be a good press corner if he adds weight. Jamar Taylor was a good press corner at Boise St., but he has short arms (30.68 inches). I think he’ll struggle pressing in the pros.
Lets grab one.
I look for this defense to add some new wrinkles to it this year, and some actual zone blitzing.
Razor,
they should have introduced it in the superbowl, an added wrinkle that would have worked especially with a depleted pass rush. I’m still pissed about that…smh…..
How many teams run the read option effectively that they will face? 3? Seattle (2), Washington, and Carolina. Miss any?
Press man isn’t only effective against the read option.
How much press corner do the 49ers use? They are more of an off coverage keep everything in front of you defense.
They use it sometimes, but the corners get scorched too quickly. Pressing is not their strength.
You’re right Jack, 49ers rarely use press man. I’m assuming it is because Fangio prefers to give up the short completion than risk the big play.
Jack,
I was thinking the same thing. I would rather focus on getting solid coverage corners instead of overreacting to an NFL trend like the read option. Like Steve Young said, the read option is a bridge to becoming a great pocket QB. All of the QB’s you mentioned have the skillset to become very good pocket QB’s. The spread formation is not a trend and is a formation that many teams are utilizing. You need to have a number of good CB’s and a pass rush to neutralize it. That would be my focus.
Grant,
If executed to perfection, that might work, but what happens when one of those press corners gets caught looking into the backfield?
Grant,
Corners pressing with an extra player [one of the safeteis] coming up to the line of scrimmage sounds like a recipe for giving up huge chunks of yardage on any given play.
Just to be clear, I would love for the 49ers to have corners that could play press coverage effectively. What would make me nervous is having the corners pressing while bringing a safety into the box consistently against the likes of Russell Wilson or RG3, maybe eventually Cam Newton [if he's not to busy being an icon or pushing his teammates out of the way to do his superman celebration when his team is down by three TDs].
Why do I even read Grant? He came out with his 7 predications for the off season a few weeks back, and already 3 of the 7 are totally wrong. He’s like Barrows who misses one big story after another — Peyton Manning — totally misses the draft picks a year, yet everyone considers him an insider. It’s crazy.
A shut down corner helps several positions. The safety closest to him, the pass rushers getting an extra second, the offense with more 3 and outs not to mention turnovers and the occasional pick 6. It also helps your front seven with different blitz packages. One player makes the biggest difference. Think of merton Hanks and tim mcdonald. They flourished with Deion playing with them, not to mention Ken norton and plummer stuffing the run more agressively knowing their pass coverage responsibilties are helped by the freed up safety.
Derrell Revis people!! that is all..!!
My take:
Keep 31 + 34. Trade assorted lesser round picks in packages to move up into 3 + 4. I’m not afraid of 5th Rounders as contributors, though they may need seasoning. Kickers, ST, and KRs in late rounds. a few compensatory choices have to be taken in situ.
Last year we had some areas of interest; OL! But we didn’t know how they felt about some guys ( Boone, for one). This year I don’t know what they think of Dobbs, Tukaofu, Fleming, Cam, Ian; so hard to guess which way they jump.
Consider a more realistic trade up manuever….49ers trade up right above Green Bay and take Jarvis Jones, then come back in the second round and take Cyprien. Let him play centerfield and turn up the pass rush.
Razor,
What do you offer as trade bait for us to get a shot at J.Jones?
He will likely go inside the top 12-15 in the 1st rd.
Obviously we would need to give up our 31st, but what do offer after that?
Just thinking out loud Mr. AES. Just saw a fox mock that had him catching the next flight out at gate 3 to the Raiders so….
Sounds like somebody is setting themselves up for another embarrassing draft day rant… We have no chance at Milliner and Rhodes needs to prove he can flip his hips and isn’t just a straight line speed guy.
Instead of trading up in the first, the team would be smarter to attack the second and third rounds with trade ups. The depth on this team is sorely overrated because they never play, we need those picks… Not all of them, but we need every pick in the top 100, keep those and package our 4-7th rounders except comp picks to get additional picks in rounds 2-3.
Stay at 31st and 34th. Go DT and CB (usual suspects in this range)
Trade 61st and 74th for the 37-39 range and pick up TE Ertz if he is there (no delanie walker) otherwise, DE/S if value is there Magnus or Elam
Trade 94th, #127, #152, and #159 to get 71-76 range – DE/S/WR depending on previous picks and value
Use the 3rd/4th rd compensatory pick on Levine Toilolo (6’8″ great hands and great blocker – red zone threat for “high” Kaepr throws. not a burner but that is not what you need)
So that is 5 players. Probably all you that can make the team. You get a DT, CB, S/WR, DE, TE – Free Agency will net a DE or WR so that could impact.
Remaining picks are the two 6th and four 7th rdrs. Use them to maneuver as needed, maybe one for a K, maybe not. pick up late rdrs for next year etc.
This is a brilliant plan! Perhaps because it’s similar to (but more detailed than) what I posted yesterday. The team might want a few more of those later round picks for PK/OT project/WR-KR. I too thought of Toilolo for general blocking and for Red Zone. I think we’re probably geniuses.
Is Baalke and staff capable of such a brilliant plan?
I doubt it. There’s not going to be good value picking CB at the end of the 1st. After Millner and Rhodes, the next best CBs are likely 2nd round talent. And I don’t think a late 2nd and middle 3rd would be enough to move into the early 2nd. If you were holding the 37th pick, would you move all the way back to the 61st pick, just for a mid 3rd rounder? I didn’t think so.
According to the draft pick value chart, you’d only have to add a mid-late 6th round selection to make the values balance.
i have no idea who the Niners should pick – as i’ve noted before, i thot Mike Phipps was a can’t-miss back in 1970! the draft is a notorious minefield for high expectations. statistically, first round picks are as reliable as craps or blackjack. but i’d rather have another 1st or 2nd round pick to increase the odds we get some real contributors.
49ers Dream offseason
Trade 1st, 2nd #61 and 2014 second Miami for Xavier Rhodes CB.
Pick 34 draft: Keenan Allen WR-i think he slips to second due to injury concerns and likely 4.50 40. If he’s gone Justin hunter
3rd rounder: Nt brandon williams Williams
3rd round: Dadrick Rogers WR/
4th: Marcus Lattimore/
5th: TJ McDonald JR
5th: Akeem Spence DT Illinois
6th: Florida state K
6th: Marquiss Goodwin wr(fastest combine)
7th: ray ray Armstrong Miami SS
7th: Josh Boyd DT
Cut/not resign:
Parys harolson
Issac Sopoaga
Ted Ginn
Moss
Lenord Davis
Carlos Rogers
Donte Whitner
Sign/Resign
Dashon Goldson 5 yr 35 million dollar deal. 7 per year. Moved to SS.
Delanie Walker 3 mill per. Will not be offered more due to occasional drops and not ideal starting the size
RJF 3 year deal 2.5 per
Larry Grant
Free agents: S Kenny Phillips 4 per year
Wr: Ramseed barden, Cb: Nnamdi 3yr 15 million 5 per year with performance clauses.
Jason Jones DE 2yr 5 million. Terrance Knighton Nt 330 1yr 1 mill
Wr 1.Crabtree
2.Allen
3.bardeen
4.Jenkins
5.Kyle Williams
6. Goodwin wr
6. Mario mannigham pup list
What a ridiculous post.
You want to give up 3 high round picks, for 1 player? Sorry, no way that happens. Baalke treasures their high round picks, and aren’t going to give them away, unless it’s trading back. I could see them using a 3rd or 4th to jump up higher and grab someone, but they’re not going to give multiple 2nds and a 1st for one player. Just not their style.
And I don’t get why we’d draft Keenan Allen. His skillset is too similar to Crabtree. We need someone that can stretch the field vertically. And then that makes AJ Jenkins a waste of a pick, because he’d be lucky to make the #3 WR, and we use 3 WR sets like less than 30% of the time. That’d basically be admitting that AJ Jenkins was a bust, after one year.
And why in the world would you take an ALL-PRO free safety, sign him to a new big deal, and then move him to another position? lol – what is going on in your head? Let’s just extend Kaepernick, and then move him to WR too?
I’d love to sign RJF for 2.5 per, but that isn’t going to happen. I think he’ll get at least 4M in the open market, or more.
And since it’s Carlos Roger’s 2nd year in his new contract, we’d have little cap savings by cutting him this year. I think we’d save a couple million, and then he’d still make $4-5M because of guaranteed money. So no advantage of cutting him, except losing a good player with nothing to gain in return.
McShay on espn yesterday was saying his big board is pretty much set now. There are a few do-overs at ProDays that will be watched and a few medical reports to evaluate. The teams will get second looks at little details like agility and fluidity and technique to finalize their boards while Free Agency shakes out. Then wham! Gio Carmozzi! Doh!
Hey now Tuna
I heard that Gio has the strongest arm of all the goat hearders in the valley just dont ask him to go under center
Hahahaha. Wouldn’t you just love to be sitting in a room with Mooch and go: “Say, Mooch, how ’bout that Gio?” He’d either have to laugh with you and shake his head or get mad and stomp out.!
Totally disagree on picking DB in the 1st.
The facts are just that FACTS!
We were awesome on D until we couldn’t get a pass rush. The Pats game says it all.
The first half when Justin was in the game we completely snuffed The Brady Bunch.
The 2nd half we almost lost the game because we didn’t get DLine pressure like we did in the 1st half. AND for the rest of the season we were getting exposed.
I agree w/Grant tha DB is a necessity. But not in te first – get Justin’s eventual replacement much sooner than later.
Las Vegas,
Listen to Grant, we should mortgage draft picks to move up and select a press cornerback so that he can stop the read option offenses that we won’t see very often. If they don’t do that, Baalke will have failed to learn his lesson from passing on Fleener last year.
LOL.
Rocket,
Laughing at my joke will be frowned upon in this establishment. We will be labeled as condescending know it alls and our posts will be removed.
Sincerley,
Anthony Davis
BigP,
The gift that keeps on giving. lol.
I’ve already been labled as an arrogant know it all, who corrects everybody even if I’m wrong so adding condescending is a natural progression.
And my last post was edited. Pretty tight ship you run here Grant. I didn’t think my last line was that bad.
Rocket,
He’s still stinging from being forced to have his anti-Anthony posts removed last year and wants revenge. Sadly, there won’t be a Second Annual Anthony Davis, And To A Lesser Extent Colin Kaepernick, Writing Competition. The good thing is he learned the value of Facebook privacy settings after poking the bee hive.
49ers are going to surprise all of you by taking a running back of the future with their 1st or 2nd pick. This is a run first team that values that position when at the same time others devalue, thinking they can find quality running backs in later rounds.
Parkay,
That will never happen. The running game is the least of their concerns right now. Teams don’t usually invest high picks on RB’s because it is proven that you can find them throughout the draft. Alfred Morris was a sixth round draft choice and rushed for over 1600 yards as a rookie last year.
Like Barner in the 5th?
This years draft class is top heavy with defensive players. Our needs are greater on the d-line and db.
If we were to make a move for offense in the 1st it would likely be for a WR.
Grant, it’s not a good idea to trade up into the first round, because it would probably cost us the 34th overall pick to do so. No one else is going to let us trade that far up for our late 2nd round pick and later. The meat in the draft is within picks 30-90. There’s also not a ton of talent difference from picks 17 to 32. They all kinda bunch together. So IF we do trade up, we’d likely trade into the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds – by using our plethora of late round picks that wouldn’t make the team likely. Those late round picks aren’t going to be enough to trade up earlier in the 1st.
But also, we need to keep in mind that they will likely be “trading back” at some point, so they can rollover some of these picks to next year in higher rounds. Example, giving away our 3rd rounder (from carolina), in exchange for 2014 2nd rounder. It’d be a shame to have 15 picks this year, and not be able to add a few more picks to the following draft as well, to keep the wealth circulating for years to come. I think the 34th overall pick is going to be a huge bargaining chip for trading back. We could trade back 7-8 spots and pick up an additional 3rd round pick this year. Then you could package Carolina’s 3rd plus the new 3rd, and move back into the late 2nd. So then we’d end up with 3 2nd round picks, instead of 2. Then we’d still have our original 3rd rounder as well as a comp pick.
I think we pick Mathieu with 2nd round 2nd pick he is 1st round talent that slipped I think there are alot of teams watching him grab him while you can he might not be there in the 3rd.
Michael,
Why do you consider him a first round talent?
He was the best corner in college until he screwed up last year its not talent the reason for him slipping its the off field issues.
He was a play maker, but he was never a great CB. He is under 5’9″ and is 180 lbs. He will be a slot corner at best in the NFL. He will get eaten alive by outside receivers, where he will be giving up 3-8″ and 20-50 lbs. Throw in the off field issues and combine performance, and you have a guy that isn’t worth a high draft pick. If he is around in the late third to fourth round, he might be worth it.
Players who repeatedly have off-field issues should have a special draft category. They should not be allowed to be rewarded with a big contract. They should work toward regaining their credibility.
AES,
Lol, don’t throw logic into the argument, that doesn’t fly around here.
AES all that would do is protect stupid teams from making more stupid decisions. They could call it the stop me before i draft again rule.
Cincinatti Rule
Brotha Tuna,
Lol. “But criminals are cheaper to sign!”
Bidwell are you listening? you can sign all of cell block d for the same price as ryan lindley
Covering the 49ers during the offseason must be close to watching paint dry, so it is understandable that one would want to throw out the trade up card to try and spice things up and generate discussion.
While the team needs to add depth at almost every position, the only pressing needs appear to be a #2 WR, Free Safety, and kicker. Everything else is about getting ready for the future.
Not sexy, but back to back Championship games and a Super Bowl are results that speak for themselves.
@Jack I think Dline is our #1 need. If you believe that J. Smiths injury was the one and only cause of the total drop off in sacks, then we definetly need to add depth along the Dline especially if Soapoaga and RJF leave
Coach,
The backup to Smith last year was Dobbs, and the bad thing for the 49ers is that Dobbs was injured and on IR when Smith went down. That forced them to play RJF who was the #3 guy.
They will probably add a guy through the draft or free agency, but I don’t think they will trade up in round 1 to get one and that doesn’t move the needle which is the main point of my initial comment.
I agree Jack. There’s a difference between need and depth and most of the picks are about preparing for the future; not necessarily making a huge impact next season.
I truly think it’s a rare occasion when a team is in position to actually take BPA ; not fill needs and then say you took BPA.
The strength of this draft is on the lines and because of that there is a good chance the BPA is a Dlineman at 31, but if somebody slips like a Keenan Allen or Jarvis Jones even Xavier Rhodes for that matter, they can take them and not think twice about it.
old coach,
There were too many injuries on the Dline last year in total, not just JS. His was obviously the most impactful, but they lost Dobbs for the season, then Tukafu was out with a neck injury and that lingered for some time. They definitly should add at least one quality Dlineman in this draft, but I also don’t think the situation is as dire as it appeared near the end of the season.
@Jack and Rocket….I would like to see them move up to pick a D lineman specificly Loutulelei but i do’nt think they will. I would be happy with Jesse Williams at #31 and Okafor at #34. I like Dobbs and for the last 2 preseasons he has been spectacular but Fangio does’nt seem to value him as much as i do. Even before his injury he was seeing very little time. I would love to see the 9ers put together a front seven that truely strikes fear into the hearts of QB’s. Then we can pick DB’s later in the 2nd or 3rd rd
old coach,
I’m with you, but I don’t think they have to trade up to get what they need is all. The prevailing opinion on this draft is few blue chip prospects at the top and similar caliber talent deep into the second round. I’ll be happy as long as they take BPA because this draft is set up for them perfectly to do just that. They don’t need to overthink it.
Jack:
I agree with the main thrust of your comment, but I sincerely believe that the 49ers are not yet in a position where they can say pass rusher is not a pressing need. They need at least one more guy for the rotation and they need to prepare for the departure/decline of Justin Smith. Whether that means finding the next Justin Smith (unlikely) or preparing to adjust the defense to accommodate a different mix of talent, I think they would be ill-served to ignore anyone with superior pass-rush ability who is available near the end of the 1st round.
And while I’m not in favor of using most of the team’s draft pick bounty on a single player, I wouldn’t object if Baalke used the 49ers’ third round pick (No. 93) to jump up and grab that superior pass rush talent.
That said, I generally prefer the BPA approach. Thankfully, this year seems to have a lot of talented front 7 players, so the 49ers may find themselves happily picking at the intersection of BPA and need.
Jack, I know you are of the opinion the 49ers brass feel DL is less of a need than most fans, but are you sold on the depth behind Smith and McDonald?
My take is that depth on the DL is a pressing need (and depending on Ian Williams a starting NT is also a pressing need). Just because they have Smith and McDonald to start doesn’t mean a quality backup isn’t a big need nor worthy of a 1st round investment (or even moving up if the right player is available). As to whether Baalke and Harbaugh agree, well, who knows.
I also think when it comes to drafting it should always be about the future. Teams shouldn’t rely on rookies to start day 1 and perform at a high level to win the Super Bowl – if a rookie proves to be good enough to start day 1 then fantastic, but don’t go into the draft thinking you need to find a guy to start day 1. Draft a guy to start 1-2 years down the track. That’s my long winded way of saying don’t go into the draft thinking the 49ers need to fill the #2WR role and starting FS spot for 2013 with rookies.
Scooter,
Yes, I like Dobbs and Tukuafu.
Will they add another DL in the draft? Probably, and 31 isn’t out of the question. I just don’t believe that you trade up for someone who will be a backup.
Dobbs I like but I think he’s a career backup. Tukuafu I’m not that big a fan of. I guess that’s why we have different opinions on the level of need!
Exactly Scooter. It is only the level of need that we differ on there.
Jack i agree with you the only DL i would move up for would be a NT who could slide over to DT on passing downs like S. Loutulelei [if his health checks out]
I have zero confidence in any backup defensive lineman on the team. RJF is average. The others have yet to see any significant live campaign action which makes the evaluation process difficult.
You’re exactly right Scooter, this is the time to upgrade that defensive lines backups with the objective being to get them in live action through the course of the season as part of a rotation keeping the starters fresh.
The idea of trading up in the 1st that Grant floated is legit and understandable for a team with as many picks stockpiled as Baalke has. I don’t happen to subscribe to the idea that much, but I wouldn’t be upset if Trent went that way. So its not all that crazy and has as much chance of being right as my prognostications, or (ahem) some of the others on here.
Let’s not get tooooooooo sure of ourselves. Remember too that while Fleener didn’t make the Pro Bowl, AJJ didn’t make a catch! The book is still out on AJJ, he may blossom, but it could prove either Trent or Grant right in the end. God I hope its Trent, LOL!!
Depending on how the compensatory picks come down 10 of those 15 stockpiled picks will be coming in rounds 4-7.
Yeah, Jack, small change for trading up, but there may be a couple of Bruce Millers there. 4th & 5th rounds particularly; future starters.
Brotha Tuna,
Anything said here is opinion and we really shouldn’t be taking ourselves that seriously. The reason Grant gets grief is because his opinions are presented forcefully and the reaction is over the top if the team doesn’t go the route he predicts.
I trust the Niners to do what’s best for the team. Last year I wanted Fleener and they took Jenkins. C’est La vie. We don’t know and until we see how the player’s career unfolds we still don’t know, but what we should all realize is that our opinions are based on about 2% of the actual work done by the people who get paid to do this. So to be outraged by decisions that the team makes that go contrary to ours is pretty delusional.
I see your points Rocket and outrage was an over-reaction. I could’ve used a “Wow! That looks like a reach!” The positive assertions are partially a generational thing. If you’re right often enough maybe you can get away with it.
To Jack’s point too, Grant’s just throwing out stuff for us to wrestle over and chew on.
I’d be more willing to bet we trade out of the 31st pick into the early second round for an extra 1st next year. The reasoning is I don’t know if there is much difference in players taken 20-32 then 33-45. I think we can still get a lot of value in rounds 2-3. I do agree we need both a CB and a pass rusher. It just boils down to which one the team values higher need wise.
The Niners SHOULD NOT trade up in any of the first 3 rounds…they should bundle their picks in rounds 5-7 to get a few more 3rd/4th round picks this year or some higher picks next year. A few names as to why trading up into the teens is not worth it… : Frank Gore, Colin Kaepernick, Navarro Bowman, Dashon Goldson, Terrell Brown, Alex Boone, Kendall Hunter, Delaine Walker, LaMichael James, Chris Culliver, Andy Lee, and Brian Jennings. These are all core guys for this team, some All-Pros/Pro Bowlers or future AP/PB guys. All were drafted outside the first round.
This idea, and its a stupid one, that trading up will get you a good player, or a better player, than drafting where you are at is what makes teams like the Raiders, Browns, Cardinals, Buccaneers (pre 2000), and Lions the perennial losers that they are. You over pay for a player who may or may not be that good. Christian Ponders cap hit this season is ~3 million. CK’s cap hit is ~1.4 million. Both drafted in the same year. Who would you rather have and whose cap number would you rather have? Constantly drafting in the top 15 will destroy your cap, will destroy your quality depth and will return your team to the bottom dweller level quicker than a draft of JaMarcus Russel. When was the last time we saw the Pats, Steelers, Pack, Colts, or Ravens trade up to draft a player in the top 15? How often in the past 15 years have those teams drafted guys at that level. If anything we see them trading back, stock piling picks year in and year out and getting guys in those 3-5 rounds.
Trading up would be the worst move this team could make at this time. With the contracts of Iupati, A Smith, Kaep, Hunter, A Davis and even Vernon coming up soon, how are they going to afford all these people if they also have to take on another 2 to 3 million in cap space for a guy that is no more guarantee to be better than a player they pick at 31…or later.
And seriously can we get this damn REFRESH of the page fixed?? Whose in charge of this crap.
I agree, you don’t mortgage the future, however I am not against moving up 3 or 4 spots if the player they want is still available, but not as high as Grant wants.
That sounds like a great idea but gives considerably higher value to those picks than what most teams believes. The 6th and 7th rounders combined wouldn’t be enough to get into the 4th round. The 2 5ths could get you into the lower end of the 4th.
Some of those lower round picks should be packaged with higher round picks to move up a few spots here and there where they see players they really like and don’t want to risk another team taking.
That I’m fine with, having 5-7 picks in the top 5 rounds.. yes, but this antiquated notion that one must draft a player in the top 15 would be a false move. No need to try and move up 15+ spots, giving up picks this year and next, for a guy who has as much possibility of being a great player as someone picked in the 5th. If the Bowman draft was to be redone, what round would he go in? Would he still be the 91st player taken…or more like the 9th?
I agree with not trading up to the top 15 – the cost is greater than reward. I’m not against using a 3rd rounder and late round pick to move up into the early 20s if there is player they really like. Same goes with the 49ers 2nd round pick – I’m not against using a 4th to move up higher in the 2nd round. All comes down to whether there is a player they really like or not.
I agree. Basically the 49ers can target a player/s in each round and move up or down to get them.
I high pick does not guarentee a player will be a shut down corner or better than what we have. Especially if you can’t pressure on the QB. Case in point Patrick Peterson. Less you also forget the niners got McKyers, Griffin, Wright and Williamson later in the rounds.
Furthermore, there is the other philosophy of the more you have, you increase your chances of finding a hidden gem instead of banking on one. Study the draft son.
While the DT/NT might not play as much, if they can play and stuff the run, occupy blockers for PW and NB, and collapse the pocket on passing down, then they will relieve JS and Company and keep them fresh for the end of the season.
I disagree the 1st pick should be a CB…take the best stud DL with the #31 pick, because they’ll disappear from the board faster than the CB’s will. Remember…it (defense) all start up front. The more they can collapse the pocket the better opportunities to get pressure on the QB. The less time the secondary has to cover receivers, the better. I’d take a CB w/#34 pick, though. Three spots in the draft can mean a lot…and again, there are quite a few more CB’s to choose from than elite DL.
I agree. Plus you can draft other DBs in the latter rounds with the comp picks to increase your chances on hitting on a jewel, and if you are lucky more.
Plus you think the niners are only a few away, but we have lots of FA, one of the keys in the SB loss was special teams and we will need LBs too. We need to also get help to get cheaper, because after next year, the niners might want to renegotiate CK’s contract and if not next year then the year after that when his contract does expire.
Wildbill,
Looks like 49ers FO read your mind. Since your posting they signed. Jack of all trades and special teams ace Dan Skuta and former starting safety who also plays speical teams Craig Dahl. Check that off the list.
What are your thoughts on Jonathan Banks from MSU as corner?
I’d trade some of their later round picks to get another late second or third. The draft looks rich around there. Or go for a higher pick next year.
Let’s not forget, they need to figure out who’s going to be Frank Gore’s eventual replacement. Neither Hunter nor the Oregon kid have the heft to fill Frank’s shoes.
I agree with the move up up the lower round picks for a higher 3rd or low 2nd.
Frank Gores replacement: Marcus Lattimore for me, because you can keep him on injured reserve and he doesn’t take a roster spot.
“The 49ers could improve more by packaging picks to trade up in the first round…”
The 49ers have 15 picks (12 tradable) including 31, 34, 61, 74, 93. According to draft value charts 31+34 would only fetch a 13th. 31+34+74 would only net a 9th.
That’s a huge price. The new rookie salary cap makes a yearly influx of fresh rookies essential to cap management. The more year 1-4 players on the roster, the more high priced (higher quality) veterans a team can retain.
Those round 2-3 picks provide a dual role of high quality players + cap management value that late round picks or mid-level talent veterans can’t. Treat those picks like gold!
I favor an incremental approach, packaging picks to trade up in rounds 2-5. The buzz is 2013 is deep but not flashy, with three of four “talent plateaus.”
1) Picks 1-6 roughly the same talent
2) Picks 7-20 very close behind
3) A slight talent drop picks 21-40
4) Many solid players post 41
The 49ers challenge is to trade the 12 trade-able picks up/back into plateaus 2 and 3.
All fun aside, I don’t see a lot of trading until draft day. I’m sure any draft model I make will be blown to bits once the draft actually begins.
I like the idea of a small jump into the 20′s in the 1st round followed by using a bunch of the 5-7 round picks to grab extras in the 3rd and 4th.
And if the 49ers can sucker someone into next year’s 1st for a 2nd this year that would be icing on the cake.
A small jump into the 20s for whom?
Whichever of the better DBs or DLs slide a bit. Someone like Vacarro (unlikely), Sheldon Richardson or Ansah.
Outside that box, Keenan Allen if he hangs around into the 20s.
Or Manti T’eo. His imaginary girlfriend would be a hit in the Bay to Breakers.
I’m limited because I can’t view alot of videos due to low bandwidth (and the fact that I’m a nursery worker, not a trained football scout).
In the few I have seen, no one really jumps out like Aldon Smith’s youtubes vs Colorado (now removed). Tavon jumps out, but he’s so dang little and we have that in LMJ! Hankins seems like the most consistent player. A non-flashy, Steady-Eddie that’s consistently flows to the right spot. “Natural football instincts” as Baalke would say.
As for Rodes, he does have a nice fluid movement and body type for a prototype CB. Plays very catlike for a guy his size. I wish I had more non big play film of him. There may very well be a pick worth trading the 31-34 for in the mid-high first. If it was a sure thing Aldon Smith, go for it. Talent assessment trumps everything.
The main purpose of my comment is the notion that draft picks in rounds 2-3 have increased value because of the depth of the 2013 draft, and the increased cap value of having more 1-4 year players on the roster compared to the previous CBA.
That rookie salary cap changed alot of things. Some for the better, but there are casualties too.
I’d trade up only for impact player on D line or TD machine that fits the offence. Otherwise trade out of the first round. In fact trade both of their 1-2 pick back to mid second and 2014 pick.
Niners moves up & trades with Carolina:
According to drafttek chart value, 49ers can trade #31, pts, #61 and #74 (220pts) for Carolina’s #14.
CAR doubles their picks in the 1st three rounds and helps their cap.
Niners move up to #14 & draft for DL stud and still retain pick #34 for a DB. SF retains their 3rd round pick & extra late round picks to parlay in the 2nd half of draft or for 2014.