Matt Barrows wrote a blog this morning arguing why the 49ers’ biggest offseason issue is the pass rush, not the secondary. I love Matt’s work and I usually agree with his opinions, but I disagree this time.
The 49ers need to address the secondary with greater urgency than the D-line. If Isaac Sopoaga and Ricky Jean Francois leave in free agency, then the 49ers need to address the D-line after addressing the secondary. If Sopoaga or Jean Francois re-sign with the Niners, then wide receiver becomes the second-biggest offseason issue.
The Niners already are committed to four d-linemen they like and want to play every down – Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Ray McDonald and Ahmad Brooks. When these four players are healthy, they’re a top-10 defensive line. Any D-lineman the 49ers draft or sign this offseason would be just a backup next season.
The 49ers do not have one defensive back who can blanket a receiver or tight end in coverage. Tarell Brown struggles against big receivers. He gave up 11 catches to Julio Jones in the NFC Championship game. Brown will be a 29-year old free agent after next season.
Strong Safety Donte Whitner is too short to cover tall tight ends.
Dashon Goldson is better at hitting than covering, and it’s unclear he’s even going to come back.
Carlos Rogers will be 32 years old next season. He struggles more and more against the quick slot receivers, like the Rams’ Chris Givens and the Seahawks’ Doug Baldwin.
Chris Culliver got torched from Week 6 on. He can’t seem to locate the deep pass when he turns his head.
The 49ers have five of the first 94 draft picks. They’re in a position to trade up to the 11th or 12th pick and draft a young lock-down corner who has a whole career ahead of him.
If the 49ers cannot work out a trade, they definitely need to draft the best cornerback available at pick No.31, or scour the free agent market for a corner who is not too expensive.
I’m basing my opinion on the fact that if a defense has weak coverage skills in the secondary, it doesn’t matter who is rushing the passer. An opposing wide receiver will be open before a rusher gets there.
On the other hand, if a defense has coverage corners and safeties who can blanket the opposing wide receivers and tight end, even a less-than-stellar D-lineman might be able to get to the quarterback because the quarterback is forced to hold onto the ball longer and search for an open receiver.
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It’s a chicken and the egg type situation, but the truth is that they go hand in hand and are both equally important. Great coverage helps a mediocre pass rush and vice versa. You make good points about some of the shortcomings and limitations of the Niners current personnel although I do think you’re being a little too harsh on Culliver (although he was horrible in the Super Bowl). While I agree that when healthy the Niners d-line is on the best in the league just one injury and they take a big step back. It would be great if they could pick up 2 more pass rushers (1 interior and 1 on the outside) so that they could have a little bit more of a rotation next year so that those 4 guys stay fresher late in games and deep into the season. They clearly need an infusion of good, young depth both in the secondary and on the d-line. This is why I would be against a big trade up where they have to sacrifice several premium picks. IMO it would be better just to move up a few spots here and there to grab targeted players rather than packaging everything up for 1 guy when they clearly have many needs.
Brad’s right; chicken vs egg. Pressure and coverage are interdependent. Find some help in FA to take pressure off of draft. Then at 31 and 34 there will be s/cb/de/dt/wr to choose from. Be ready to trade up for a favorite, but don’t trade in advance.
Grant i agree with you if your secondary is so weak that regardless of how fast your D gets to the QB a receiver gets open, you need help in the D back field but that does’nt describe the 9er D backs. They were giving up an avg of 200 yrds a game before Smith got hurt and i did’nt believe they had a “great” pass rush at that time. I believe they had a good pass rush. If Smith is healthy and they add another DT to collapse the pocket they will become a great pass rush
Barrow’s opinion supports my observation that the Niner’s secondary is pretty decent and the sub-par pass defense towards the end of the season is due to sub-par pass rush. Niners field the most expensive D in the league which is not sustainable by Baalke’s own statement. An effective backup and/or an eventual replacement to Justin Smith is better value addition now than acquiring an expensive star strong safety or a shut-down corner. Niners’s FO tends to trust the analytics approach that recommends spending more on the O and D lines more than some of the skill positions that have been traditionally overpaid (no Revis for sure). Anyway, it only matters what the FO thinks, not what Grant, Matt or the fans think.
I agree. I went back and watched several of the games where we gave up huge pass catching performance and they all lead to two things: 1) Carlos Rodgers cannot play man in the slot against ANYONE. He’s too slow.
2) Our pass rush for the most part was nonexistant once Justin Smith went down to injury. I also noted SEVERAL plays where Aldon Smith’s motor was simply not revved up. He isn’t particularly tenacious which is where a guy like JJ Watt has the edge on him.
If we get to the QB the Jacoby Jones TD reception and the Anquan Boldin 3rd and 18 balloon ball – never happen.
I want them both. Another pass rusher and a shutdown corner. I expect that Baalke will pull out all the stops to get these positions filled.
I also think that despite reports Baalke is still interested in Revis. He is slow-playing the Jets, trying to drive the price down for the coming off of injury and last year of his contract Revis. He is worth about a third this year and a conditional next year. He simply is not worth what he was a few years ago. Jets are gonna try to break the bank but it ain’t gonna happen from Baalke. I hope. Jets will try to hold out. Baalke will slow play. Any deal will happen later rather than sooner in my opinion.
Pass rush is the most important thing. You can have the best cover guys in the secondary but if you don’t have guys that can get to the QB then someone is going to get open. It was annoying as hell to see the Niners rush 4 with no push and the QB has all day to throw the ball. You can only cover a person for so long. But I agree in the sense that it would be better value wise to get someone in the secondary before getting a DL because the pass rusher the Niners need should be a 3rd down specialist and a backup to Justin Smith. Re-sign RJF and that’s a good start.
Domingo I also want both but the chances of hitting the jackpot twice are slim. Unless we get really lucky and find a diamond in the rough at one of those positions we will be lucky to find just one player. I think there are more interior D lineman who can collapse the pocket then there are truely “shut down” corners.
When Justin Smith and Ray McDonald and Demarcus Dobbs are healthy, the 49ers can collapse the pocket.
Grant, why not trade up with the Raiders and take Milliner or Floyd? They seem to be players the 49ers could use right away but cannot get without moving up.
2011 Mc Donald did a good job of collapsing the pocket. He did’nt last yr. Dobbs has looked good in preseason but Fangio does’nt seem to have any confidence in him during the regular season. I would like to see the 9ers draft a NT who can move over to DT on passing downs . Someone who could rotate with McDonald and Smith on passing downs . I like the kid from alabama at #31 or if the kid from utah is healthy we should move up for him. I believe if we get either of these players our DB’s will look great.
I think CB’s are a huge gamble in the draft and the 9ers have had pretty good lock drafting CB’s after the first rd.
Eric Wright
Don Griffen
Tim Mcyer
Eric Davis
While our first rd CB’s other than R. Lott have not been as good
One scenario would be if Baalke could swing a favorable deal for Revis without giving up our top pick and then trade up for one of the higher rated pass rushers. Its not impossible to acquire both in one offseason. Walsh got both Haley and Mckyer in the same draft. Its assuming Revis is healthy, we dont give up a passel of picks and he does not ruin our cap in the future. Baalke needs to use his magic wand on this one. Be patient and disciplined. Slow play the Jets.
I agree with Brad that the dline and secondary go hand in hand. I also think it would be easier to restore the dline by what Old Coach mentioned in the previous blog: more rotation for the starters. What I think has been overlooked is that, besides being hurt by JSmith’s injury, they were gassed by New England’s second-half no-huddle offense and being on the field so long in the next game against Seattle. Some other factors: Many fewer takeaways versus the year before and poorer field position, both of which made their job harder.
The order of priority I would like to see is –
1. Dline
2. Special teams
3. Secondary
4. Receiver corp
They need both, here is what i think they need:
1) #1 pick they should get a corner (my pick) or the TE from Stanford
2) #2 pick they get a DT
3) #3 pick they get a safety or TE
4) #4 pick they what they did not get the pick before
5) #5 pick they either get a kicker
They use the other picks to trade for a corner or saftey or DT
For free agency, i like a corner, a safety, and one DT and one DE
I think they can get Richard Seymour for cheap that plugs and pushes to pocket. I don’t like Revis at $13 million or more per year but somebody that is good enough to cover well but a line that gets more pressure….
Seymour is done and a waste for the Niners.
A shut down corner would be nice, but besides Milliner there really isn’t one in this draft(and I’m not so sure about Milliner either). No need to waste picks to reach for a corner who isn’t there.
Some, including Grant, seem to think Rhodes will be also and so is also worthy of trading up to get. I’m not saying Rhodes isn’t that guy, just that I don’t know that he is.
If Grant thinks he is then he’s definitely not.
How is he going to be a shutdown corner in the NFL when he wasnt in college. Keep in mind in the NFL there are only 2 shutdown corners in the NFL right now Revis (when healthy) and Sherman (when not getting torched by Atlanta) finding a true shutdown corner is harder than finding a Franchise QB.
I expect the 49ers to address all of these areas of need (via the draft and free agency):
1. D-line and pass rush
2. Secondary
3. Kicker and special teams
4. WR
5. ILB (in case L. Grant leaves)
Agree, they need help in the secondary but also need to start a rotation on the D line like the Giants do.
Something to weigh also when considering Brown’s future with the team is that his salary goes from 850K to 2.925M and his 2013 cap hit with bonuses is 3.9M!!
If the team feels the same way you do about him then he’ll have to take a pay cut or be cut.
While I agree the 49ers can use more depth on D-line would it really be worthwhile to use a top pick on one if the Defensive Coordinator’s philosophy is to play only 11-12 players per game? The current D-line is much more established than the current secondary so I see the 49ers plugging secondary holes first, if only because of the D-Coordinator.
this is a very tough call for the average fan like me: is it the pass rush, or is it the pass coverage? its a bit of a chicken and egg type question. but i’m going to come down on your side, Grant. while our pass rush clearly went down a full notch as soon as JS got hurt, my general litmus test revolves around how infuriated I get while watching the opposing QB in the pocket: if the qb has way too much time, then i start mentally blaming the rushers. but from the NE game on, most of the time the opposing qb didnt just stand in the pocket and wait for guys to clear; instead, they took a reasonable amount of time and unfortunately found an open receiver. I recall many, many Niner games, going back to Jimmy Johnson at corner thru Wright/Lott, etc, where our pass rushers gave the qb plenty of time, but the secondary played well enough to force a tougher throw or allowed the rushers to get coverage sacks. so here’s how i measure it: we didnt get any coverage sacks last year.
They need to take care of the D-line first. If you don’t have a pass rush, it doesn’t matter how good your coverage is. I agree that they need to upgrade the secondary, but they have the ammo to do both. Just look at the team sack totals, Aldon Smith had 19.5 and the next closest person on the team was Ahmad Brooks with 6.5. Aldon Smith didn’t even have one sack in the six games after Justin Smith was injured. The defense was not the same after Justin Smith’s injury because there was virtually no pass rush, it was a totally different defense. Justin Smith is on the downside of his career. That doesn’t mean he can’t be productive, but it’s asking alot of a 34 year old defensive lineman to play that many snaps and constantly take on two offensive lineman. They need to upgrade the secondary, but the cause and effect of Smith’s injury should make upgrading the defensive line and pass rush the number one priority.
14.81 points per game in 13.5 games with Justin Smith healthy.
31.81 points per game in 5.5 games with Justin Smith injured.
Found some interesting information on first round draft picks by position drafted in the #11-#32 picks. This seems to be the most likely area we’ll end up drafting, obviously it’s not out of the realm of possibilities we could draft in the top ten and if you think that’s likely then I suggest you search for the other article mentioning the picks #1-#10 as well.
“Corners have been selected more than anyone else in this portion of the NFL draft, 45% of which are becoming consistent enough NFL players. The reward is definitely not there as nobody has yet to develop into a perennial pro bowler and only 23% are proving to be good NFL players, better than only two other positions. If the goal is to find the dominant corner that is going to change games the odds are against a team finding it in this portion of the draft. About 35% of those drafted are finding their way into the playoffs and a much smaller portion would be considered big pieces of those teams. The one saving grace is that corners are often athletic enough to contribute as backups and on special teams if they don’t work out as a starter.”
“Defensive Ends carry much more risk than the other positions considered safer picks with about 44% of the selections not working out as NFL players. Teams are certainly taking chances on them as they rank second only to cornerbacks selected in this portion of the draft, so teams are putting a premium on finding pass rushers in round 1. There is a good chance of finding good players at this position as nearly 35% of these selections are turning into good NFL players, tops amongst all positions with a significant amount of draftees. Over half of the DE’s have participated in the playoffs for their original teams proving to be solid additions for them. However, finding the pro bowl players has been harder as only 4 have turned into perennial probowlers, near the bottom of all positions. To make matters worse many of these studs are injury prone as John Abraham, Javon Kearse, and Dwight Freeney have only played 16 games 7 times in 23 seasons amongst the three of them. Predicting how long a player will remain with a team is difficult to do. Because there is such a premium cost associated with pass rushers some pretty good players are being allowed to walk after 5 or 6 seasons, even though they should be productive for close to a decade.
Their linemates, the Defensive Tackles, have not been nearly as productive as the ends. There is an even 50/50 split between busts and productive players, but only 25% of those selected are turning into good players in the NFL. Around 50% of the DTs selected are contributing to a playoff run and most players will find a new home after 5 years. Teams are electing to not carry poor players for very long, often pulling the plug after 3 years making it important to limit the guaranteed money promised to a defensive tackle, making this a position smarter to take a chance on later rather than earlier in round 1.”
Also if you’re thinking of taking a WR:
“The riskiest position remains the wide receiver position, even though it remains one of the most popular picks accounting for over 12% of these selections outside the top 10. It’s been rare to find good players here in the draft. Only 2 players between 97 and 06 have turned into perennial pro bowlers- Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne- and most are proving to be little more than ok starters battling injuries and statistically down years. 64% have busted and in most cases a bust at this position means out of the NFL within 2 or 3 years. Realistically the best scenario a team can hope for is to find a number 2 or 3 WR in this draft spot, with a short shelf life. Most decent players are leaving the team after 4 seasons trying to find a new home where they can move up the depth chart, a move that typically doesn’t work.”
Here is the summary, I’ve left out the other positions mentioned but you can read the full article here: http://www.nyjetscap.com/round1.html
“The draft strategy for a team here would look to be pretty straightforward. If you need an interior lineman odds are you wont go wrong with the selection and will add a valuable piece to the puzzle for years to come. If you don’t need the help on the line you should be able to find an outstanding linebacker every year that will help solidify the defense. What if you need a playmaker of some sort? Offensively its proving to better to take the chance on the highly touted tight end than wide receiver or running back. While the TE may not turn into option number 1 he probably stands a good chance of being target number 2 which can open things up for your other players on offense. If you need the defensive playmaker look no further than the safety position where stars are being found. If you want to take a risk on one of the other spots the defensive end is the one place to take a chance. All of the other positions have better value elsewhere unless the need of the team at that position drastically outweighs the potential for a player at any of the other positions and the team is good enough to deal with a wasted first round draft selection.”
These numbers were also taken from ’97 thru ’06 so clearly the percentages will have changed with the picks since then but I don’t think the basic premises will be that far off from then.
Really interesting, thoughtful analysis. Thanks for sharing, Coffee!
Take it with a grain of salt considering the age of the information but it’s still applicable on some levels.
Last year Trent signed 4 FAs: 2 WRs, RB/FB, and CB, all pretty much to address immediate needs (Cox being for depth). His 2012 draftees seem to be more for the future (we hope!).
This year he has a lot more picks, but I suspect his basic approach to the offseason will be similar.
@ grant:
Yet with all those alleged problems in the secondary, the 49ers gave up only 200 yards/game passing until injuries hit the defensive line, exposed that unit’s lack of depth, and weakened the pass rush. How that leads you to conclude that the secondary must be replaced is head-scratchingly curious.
And while I recognize that the pass rush and secondary are interdependent and that the best results come when both units are good, I think you have it exactly backwards regarding which unit can better cover for weaknesses in the other. If the 49ers’ secondary was as weak as you say it was, last season’s defense compellingly demonstrated that a strong pass rush masks weaknesses in the secondary. While the pass rush was strong, opponents threw for only 200 yards/game.
First, it only takes a single breakdown in coverage for a QB to exploit a weak pass rush. You would need 4-5 excellent coverage players in the secondary to make up for a weak pass rush. You just labeled as inadequate each of the top 5 members of the 49ers’ secondary. How exactly do you propose that the 49ers acquire 5 excellent coverage players in a single offseason? Second, no one, not even a healthy Darelle Revis can cover a receiver indefinitely. If there is no pressure on the QB, passes will get completed.
On the other hand, it doesn’t matter how many receivers are open if the QB doesn’t have time to set and throw the ball. I suppose if the 49ers played every DB > 5 yards off the receivers, the QB might be able to complete the occasional quick slant, but the 49ers rarely play everyone that far back. In addition, you don’t need 4-5 great pass rushers to have an effective pass rush. You only need 2-3 as long as the other players are merely good enough to exploit the extra attention given to the great ones. Plus, you can scheme an effective pass rush.
Finally, it’s simply more efficient to improve the pass rush rotation and depth than it is to “fix” the secondary. It only would take 1-2 rotational players to give the 49ers the quality pass rushing depth they lack. In contrast, it would take 4 new starters in the secondary and a new nickel back to give the 49ers the pass coverage abilities you propose. The former is attainable; the latter is unrealistic.
Again, with all the supposed flaws in the 49ers’ secondary, they had a top 3 pass defense before the injuries to their two best pass rushers. It was only when the pass rush became ineffective that opponents started passing so freely on the 49ers. Finding 1-2 rotational pass rushers directly addresses that problem and lessens the likelihood of a repeat performance.
*@ Grant
Sorry about that.
CB,
Couldn’t agree more. There is a direct correlation between the pass defenses struggles and the second half of the Patriots game when Justin Smith went down. From that time, Smith was not the same, Aldon Smith was not the same and the pass defense was not the same.
What we should learn from that is there was too much reliance on two guys – Justin and Aldon Smith – and there needs to be another option added to offset that. If they draft another pass rusher, it gives you some options that include, replacing Brooks on 3rd down, or moving Brooks, Aldon or the draft pick into the middle on 3rd down.
Adding a CB is also a need imo, but the pass rush makes a defense better and in this case Dline and OLB should be focal points.
CB>Grant ;~)
I agree with Grant. The Defensive backfield is the area of the biggest need.
It is not a coincidence that when the pass rush went down a notch with Justin Smith hurt and Aldon Smith slowed down in December, the defense gave up points in bunches. Counting the playoffs, the only time the defense played well in the last six games was against the woeful Cardinals who were on their fourth string quarterback. This tells me that the pass rush was masking the deficiencies of the defensive backfield early in the season.
Both the secondary and the DL equally need to be addressed in order to take the pressure off of both. I think the Niners will sign CB Brent Grimes, trade Rogers and their 2014 first round pick for the fourth pick and draft DT Star Lotulelei, then turn around and draft DE Margus Hunt with the thirty-first pick.
Their 2014 first rounder and Carlos Rogers would not be anywhere close to the value needed to move up to number four in this years draft.
MWN,
Nobody is going to make a trade like that. Rogers contract is not a good one for a team to take on and the compensation to make a deal to move up that high would be much more than you’ve offered.
I didn’t post the whole scenario here guys. You’ll have to to look at my second mock draft I posted a couple of days back for that.
I like Derek cox, from the jags. When healthy the dude can cover. And will b cheaper then grimes
Grimes is coming back from an injury and therefore will be cheaper than what he could have commanded.
The biggest priority for the Niners isn’t a player but a “time management” coach. Their inability to get the plays off quickly and their horrible use of time outs cost them at least two games (@ St. Louis and Super Bowl). Damn, figure it out!!!!
Ray its pretty easy to figure out CK is not yet proficient in his pre snap reads. He is a below avg game manager. I hope he is able to improve in leaps and bounds in his first full season as a starter
I agree that CK is still learning about pre-snap reads, but I don’t know… If the call’s getting to him late, (and I don’t know whether it is or not), there’s not much he can do. Either way, Harbaugh’s GOT to get this fixed, and I’m confident that he will.
Both are needed. When both units were healthy last season they looked good. Teams really only had any success with the underneath routes, mainly from the CB position or to the TE. At the end of the season when the Smith’s were hurt the pass defense looked poor, and a number of longer pass plays to the outside WRs were made.
For mine, the need is more about adding depth to (a) cover any injuries, (b) enable greater substitution to keep players healthy, and (c) replace guys after the 2013 season – in particular Justin Smith, Donte Whitner and Tarell Brown.
Obviously, if the 49ers lose Goldson they will need a safety. And if they lose RJF and/ or Sopoaga they will need players to replace them too.
I would look to replace Goldson through FA, and add a player through the draft to be the primary backup that could replace Whitner in 2014. I would also look for a NT in FA, unless they finally believe Ian Williams is ready to contribute. If the 49ers are no longer enamoured with Rogers, I would also look to replace him through FA, but salary cap may prohibit any move.
One thing I have been considering is whether Rogers is capable of making the switch to FS – he’s smart enough to play the position and while he has struggled sticking with shifty slot WRs he is still a capable cover DB. That would mean the 49ers could replace Goldson with Rogers, and look to FA and the draft to fill the CB position.
The draft should be used to add a player that can rotate along the line and replace Justin Smith long term. There is quality in the DL this year, but not necessarily great depth, so this should be a priority. DB is the other way around – decent depth but not great quality. They can get guys in rounds 2 and 3 of similar quality to what they could get in round 1 in these positions.
I suggested a week or so ago switching Rogers to safety but everybody else jumped on the Cully to safety bandwagon. Rogers is a physical tackler and good blitzer and could cover from the safety position as well. The only downside I really see with that is your safety should be a ballhawk and good interceptor which Rogers doesn’t really have the hands for(2011 was an outlier year).
And by “success from the CB positions or the TE position” I mean the slot WR and TE…
Scooter,
Good post. One thing I would say is I think they already have the replacements for Sopoaga and RJF on the roster in Ian Williams and Tony Jerrod-Eddie.
Alabama NT Jesse Williams is reportedly generating first-round draft grades from “numerous” teams.
Williams is a stout, 6-foot-3, 323-pound “zero technique” nose tackle who could fit defenses like the Ravens, 49ers, or Patriots’. NFP draft guru Russ Lande describes Williams as an athletic nose with an “uncommon” blend of quick feet and “rare” playing strength. He’s definitely on the late first-round radar. Sure would love to see the 49ers get this kid.
Rotoworld
Agreed razor, he’d be a good NT for the 49ers. Question is, do the 49ers use a NT enough to warrant a 1st round pick?
Jack, I sure am hoping Ian Williams can take over that role. I liked him coming out of college, was surprised when he went undrafted. I wouldn’t be surprised though if the 49ers tried to get a vet NT as well, either to start/ compete with Williams or as insurance.
@Scooter
Not only that, he can slide to either end to spell Smith and McDonanld on the passing downs.
Scooter_McG says:
March 6, 2013 at 1:53 pm
Agreed razor, he’d be a good NT for the 49ers. Question is, do the 49ers use a NT enough to warrant a 1st round pick?
———————
Scoot would the team use their NT differently if he was a true 3-4 2 gap NT? I’ve mentioned this before but maybe the system we see is the product of the players and not philosophy. It would be easy to argue that other 3-4 s gap NT’s have been available and if they wanted that they could have had it already, ok fair enough but even so is there a chance that they simply haven’t found the right guy to be NT?
Coffee, I think Williams is athletic enough to play as either a 2-gap or 1-gap NT. He could potentially allow Fangio to play more base 3-4 and use more zone-blitzing concepts than what they did with Sopoaga. It all comes down to Fangio.
Razor, I just don’t see Williams as a 1-gap DE in the 3-4 (DEs need to be faster and more agile than the NT to account for the greater athleticism of the OTs). He’d be a NT for the 49ers 3-4. He could play DT in a 4-man front but isn’t near as good a pass rusher as J. Smith and McDonald.
Scooter,
I think the coaches see something they like in Williams which is why they have given him a roster spot the last 2 years despite almost never dressing on game day.
Agree that there will be competition brought in either through free agency or the draft.
@Scooter
I don’t know what tape you’ve been looking at, but we will agree to disagree.
The problem with Ian Williams and the rest of the backups is they cannot develop under Fangios’ philosophy. He needs to substitute and blitz his safety or cornerback once more often. Where are all the innovative zone blitz’s that are the staple of this defense.
On this one I think we will razor. As for the film I’ve been watching, it is the film that shows he very rarely gets to the QB and doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher. He can push the pocket as a bull rusher, but thats about it. His skills are more about clogging lanes and eating up blockers, allowing others to make the highlight reel plays.
That’s not true Razor. That is why they practice.
@Officer Hammer
Live Game Action>Practice? We talking about practice?
@Scooter
Does that bull rush look familiar to you? Justin Smith pushing the LT into the lap of Breeze while reaching around to pull him down? Serously, he can learn the rest from Justin.
Good coaching staffs can get players ready in practice.
No razor, it doesn’t – J. Smith can bull rush to OT and get to the QB. Williams can bull rush the interior OL and disrupt the pocket.
Maybe Williams can learn to be a better pass rusher with time, but for now, I see him as a NT.
@Scooter
He’s got the athleticism, the quick feet, and the strength to be his understudy. Not sure how you can be so sure he can’t. RJF? He was The Cowboys’ backup and Ices’ backup. Are you trying to tell me that Williams would not be a significant upgrade over the backup RJF?
Yes, he can be the backup, and can play the occassional down at DE. That versatility will be something teams will like. But I don’t expect him to be a pass rushing force like you clearly do. His bread and butter will be at the NT position.
He’s athletic and has quick feet for a big NT. Shades of Vince Wilfork there. He’s not a similar athlete to J. Smith though. He doesn’t even have the quickness of Ray McDonald.
To put it another way, if Williams was being seen as a guy that had the stoutness and strength to play NT like Wilfork and the quickness and agility to play DE like J. Smith, he’d be the 1st pick in the draft no questions asked.
@Scooter
I saw RJF make a sack as Justin’s replacement. I know Williams can account for more than that. Also just to be clear, Williams would be the starting zero from day one, but he also would be learning and substituting the DE positions throughout training camp/season allowing Smith/McDonald strategic rest.
RJF is a better pass rusher than Williams in my opinion, and we saw what happened to the defense when Smith was out.
See this draft profile from CBS – it sums up quite nicely what I see in him.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1824786
He has good “phone booth quickness” but “does not possess the quickness or the agility to collapse the pocket as a pass rusher”.
@Scooter
Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson, UCLA’s Datone Jones and Purdue’s Kawann Short all have the size and strength to hold up at the point of attack and the quickness to be disruptive in the backfield. Others, such as Alabama’s Jesse Williams, could play nose tackle early in their careers and kick out to defensive end when Smith is gone.
Last sentence sound familiar? Just what I said, and from Matt Barrows. Not sure how you feel about his opinion….Also Mike Mayock also has Williams listed in his 3-4 DE category for player ratings.
I respect Matt Barrows as a beat writer, not as a talent evaluator. Mike Mayock is a respected talent evaluator – and I believe he’s absolutely right, I think Jesse Williams would be a great 3-4 DE in the right defense. One that uses a 2-gap 3-4 DE, like the Steelers. I’ve said that all along.
I thought Fangios’ defense is the same as the Steelers 3-4 zone blitzing schemes, he just has not been using them.
You might be right Razor, I’ve not watched them much the last few seasons and I’m basing my knowledge of them on what my brother tells me (he’s a Steelers fan). The Steelers used to be a 2-gap team I believe, but the guys they’ve got now are a little smaller and more athletic, so they may be playing 1-gap now. Most teams are.
is Ed Reed a free agent?
Yes he is and no we don’t want a player on the decline.
Read where Goldson says it doesn’t mater where he plays as long as he’s getting what he thinks he’s worth… Good riddance, no coverage skills , 2 blow n coverages a game, and a personal foul penalty waiting to happen on every hit… Go to Buffalo and cash your checks with M Williams , watch your ex team from your couch
In the playoffs
Niners need pass rush/DL over secondary, hands down. It all starts at the line of scrimmage…on both sides of the ball. Or secondary is not that bad. If we got to Flacco in the Superbowl this conversation would be moot and we would be talking about drafting depth on DL and BPA.
I’d also argue more offense and Frank Gore’s replacement – Lattimore in the mid rounds is a good Gamble.
NYniner its a business Goldson has’nt yet cashed in for that one big contract. After one big one a player can make decisions with his heart before that you have to cash in. Its why players hate the franchise tag…..No bonus money
Coach he wants to be the highest paid safety and he’s not that guy… He’s been offered more than fair contracts. He’s going to get paid somewhere but it more than likely wont be a championship team.
Make the Revis trade but no more then a 1st and a 2nd one one of those coming this year. Rodgers to saftey is great idea. Let Goldson walk. If Revis is more then a 1 yr rental cut Rodgers and bring in a cheap 1 yr safety – Woodson comes to mind.
Sign Edleman or Amendola. Should get the same production in the 9ers offense for hopefully have the price as Welker. Resign Walker.
Let Sop and RJF walk unless one wants to sign cheap. If both leave look for cheap FA. I believe Cullin Jenkins visited this week.
With the top pick we still have this year draft best available DT. Use late round picks to move up if necessary.
With our own 2nd take best safety available.
Take a chance on the Honey Badger if falls to our Compensatory at the end of the 3rd or better yet our 4th.
Use mid-rounders on WR, CB, and K. Take a QB late.
Sign Josh Johnson if he becomes available.
Trade all other pics except compensatory for better picks next year.
Use compensatories at the end of the 7th to get a jump on the undrafted FA market.
You are assuming that Justin Smith is going to last a really long time, and that Ray McDonald is above average. We need a good DT, and draft someone who would eventually replace Justin Smith as a difference maker. DBs are a lot easier to replace than a great Dlineman.
If you look at 2011 season and early on last season you will notice that our secondary looked really good but that was early in last season before the line wore down. 2011, we still had the dlineman who tore his tricep in preseason and didn’t play all of this past year. Would our secondary look the same without Justin Smith? Of course not.
When it comes down to our secondary being a product of our system, it is a system of our dline and outside linebackers getting pressure on the qb to make him make quick throws and quick decisions.
If the secondary isn’t being stretched then it is a lot easier to defend.
I agree with you, Grant – on both counts, I enjoy Barrows as well.
I think the proof is in the pudding and we can look at this logically:
1) When the D-line is healthy, it’s a monster.
2) When the D-backs are healthy we still get beat.
While we need to address both concerns, the immediate need is in the backfield.
I’m seeing Rhodes in the top 15 now in mocks, closing in on Trufant but Rhodes would be a good get. Maybe Vacarro or Cyprien at safety. Vacarro may require a slight move up.
My homer pick of Tim McDonald Jr. is still out there as well a little later. :)
Jonathan Banks should be available at the end of the first, beginning of the second, too. I like his height. He’s supposed to be a zone guy but with good instincts.
The comments on this post go right along with the latest poll. Its really close to 50\50 on whether you want a DB or a DL. it should make for interesting exchanges from now till draft day. i do’nt think i can remember when the blog was so evenly split on a subject.
I understand wanting to upgrade at CB/secondary. But we need a DL starter.
Random prediction: Spillman is our FS, we go get 1-2 FA DL, draft a CB and a WR early and TE in 3rd-4th.
First thing that would instantly improve their pass coverage is release Whitner. Guy is a HUG liability in coverage. Use that $$ to sign Goldson and move him to SS and find a better pass covering FS. Why is that not being thrown around? Is Donte’s $$$ guaranteed this year? Good guy, awful pass defender
Because the Niners would be paying FS money to a SS.
But it’s still a good idea to have Goldson playing at his natural position which is SS . I doubt it happens since he will probably leave but if he stays he should be movd,like Ronnie Lott was eventually moved when his coverage skills declined (Goldson has almost always been suspect in coverage).
It doesn’t make sense from a financial standpoint Tim. Goldson is wanting $8 million per year for his new contract. He isn’t worth that now and it would be even less if he converted to SS.
I agree and have been saying the same thing on other blogs. Goldson can hit just as hard as Whitner and is better and taller in coverage. He is just not good enough to play FS. Sign and move Goldson to SS and draft/sign a FS with better ball skills.
Goldson is all about the money, someone will pay him and he will continue to take poor angles, penalized for bad hits, and look confused at times in the secondary.
With Revis one side of the field is locked down FS can be deep over the top or even cover in nickle and dime packages. Whitner can play even further down in the box making the front 7 even better. I agree We need a replacment for Justin Smith but let me know when JJ Watt is a FA. Becsuse other than him I know of no replacement for what JS brings. Chances of draftng a DT that good Is 1 in 100.
revis’ ,trade value may settle out as just a second rounder. The Jets need to trade him before the draft which is before he can demonstrate his recovery; ergo, they’re trading potentially damaged goods at a lesser value.
I believe if they trade before the draft and a Revis workout, then they are only going to get 70% on their investment, and I also heard that they are determined to trade him.
Does anyone remember Reggie Smith? Is he even still in the league? Looked like our starter at FS 2 years ago.
Reggie was cut by the Panthers during the preseason last year.
He looked good the year before. Wonder what the issue was. Just thinking outloud for a possible FS. I doubt Goldson comes back.
Barrows is right on… Like I’ve been saying since peppers was a free agent. NO pass rush. Secondary gets killed. It’s no secret this secondary failed after our best pass rusher was gone. (Yes J Smith is our best pass rusher). Just look at last season and the pass rush we had. The secondary was a turnover machine due to the pass rush and the pressure it put on qb’s.
plain and simple. Grant you’re dead wrong on this. Yes we could use some help back there, but it won’t matter if receivers are running open with time and secondary’s can’t be physical anymore with them. Elite defenses start at the line. Just like offenses.
One more thing.. When the pass rush is going the 49ers like to play physical at the line. They have stifled good offenses that way the past two years. Another point is the running defense last season. Another reason the d-line needs improvement before the secondary. I can’t count how many times the secondary had to make tackles last season.
A 49er defense with adequate OLB depth (Haralson) and a healthy Justin Smith was dominant… only a notch below the great defenses like the 85 Bears, the 00 Ravens and so on. With that D, the Niners would have dominated the Super Bowl.
The #1 reason for the 2012 decline was a rash of preseason injuries at OLB (tiring Aldon) and a hurt Justin.
A situational 3rd down edge rusher still has great value in their rookie year, even if they have yet to maser setting the edge and coverages. DBs need a wider degree of position mastery before its safe to put them on the field. They usually take longer to develop. A situational pass rusher can at least help on passing downs in their first year.
Unless the DB is a sure fire cant-miss stud, fix dept problem at front 7 first. Then go for secondary help.
B2W, you have to stop with the well-reasoned, reality-based, thoughtful comments. They’re completely out of place on this blog.
LOL… Thanks! (Of course, there are lots of good football minds on this blog…)
On the other hand, I though Coffee (and Dixon) was going to be the next Franco Harris, I was excited about Taylor Mays athletic abilities, thought Chilo would develop into a pretty good OG, and Balmer was the just the muscle we needed to shore up the defense. :)
I’m a horrible post-draft optimist.
I have this worry, not necessarily warranted, that Margus Hunt may be K. Balmer. It’s because he is tall and plays too tall. Might not be fair but gives me the willies.
BigP says:
March 6, 2013 at 11:24 am
They need to take care of the D-line first. If you don’t have a pass rush, it doesn’t matter how good your coverage is. I agree that they need to upgrade the secondary, but they have the ammo to do both.
———————————–
EXACTLY ! Now it’s up to Baalke !
49ers Dream offseason
Trade 1st, 2nd #61 and 2014 second Miami for Xavier Rhodes CB.
Pick 34 draft: Keenan Allen WR
3rd rounder: Nt brandon williams Williams
3rd round: Dadrick Rogers WR/ EricReid S
4th: Marcus Lattimore/Tyrone mathew cb
5th: TJ McDonald JR
5th: Akeem Spence DT Illinois
6th: Florida state K
6th: Marquiss Goodwin wr(fastest combine)
7th: ray ray Armstrong Miami
7th: Josh Boyd DT
Cut/not resign:
Parys harolson
Issac Sopoaga
Ted Ginn
Moss
Lenord Davis
Carlos Rogers
Donte Whitner
Sign/Resign
Dashon Goldson 5 yr 35 million dollar deal. 7 per year. Moved to SS.
Delanie Walker 3 mill per. Will not be offered more due to occasional drops and not ideal starting the size
RJF 3 year deal 2.5 per
Larry Grant
Free agents: S Kenny Phillips 4 yr
Wr: Ramseed barden, Cb: Namdi 3yr 20 million 6.5 per year
Jason Jones DE 2yr 5 million. Terrance Knighton Nt 330 1yr 1 mill
Wr 1.Crabtree
2.Allen
3.bardeen
Manningham pup list
4.Jenkins
Kyle Williams?
The wise man might say, do both my young grasshopper. Pick one DL and One DB at pick 31 and 34. This way both Matt and Grant are right… Ha Ha.
In all seriousness this draft is deep at DL and safety so the Niners are fortunate to have a strong draft for their position of need.
Baalke and Company can find a good DL and Safety at 31 and 34. Which essentially means they might pull a surprise and go WR at 31 and TE at 34, to give Kaepernick more weapons. Run up the score, let the DL pin their ears back and rush the passer.
The Niners have had a subpar secondary the past two seasons. A solid pass rush covered it up for a year and half. Once JS got hurt, it was exposed. That said, your argument for a shut down corner versus pass rusher only works if you already have a pass rush. If you have one, you take the corner and if you dont, you go with the pass rusher every time. A pass rush will make your secondary better, one shutdown corner will not improve your pass rush (OB will just go somewhere else). If any QB has time, he will find his receivers. Pass rushers are an absolutely must and the #1 piece to any defense in this pass happy league. That is not to say that you don’t go with a CB in the first, but you have to answer the question before you do. Do you have a solid pass rush going into next year?
If we were to trade up a couple of spots in the first we could get our corner, then trade next years first to come back into the bottom of the first and basically we can fill all our needs in the first 3 rounds safety, corner, nt, de, receiver, te and we are set for years to come. 2) 1′s 2) 2′s 2) 3′s and will and deal the other pics for next years draft.
Isn’t Brooks a LB?
Pass rush is more important and it was proven last year. One injury on the D-line (ie J.Smith or A.Smith) and we are no longer a top 10 Defense. One injury to the secondary and we are still in good shape. Our secondary did a good job covering especially when teams tried to get the ball out quickly to avoid the pass rush. It was only when QB’s were able to extend plays with their legs did our secondary get expose, which happens to every team in the league. Our D-line was hurt, tired and beat up by the time we made it to the playoffs let alone deep in the playoffs. We need pass rusher like Barrows says, plus he has better hair than you Grant!
I dont think it is one or the other that needs to be upgraded. We need both DL and DB to be upgraded. Depth at DL and LB, and some upgrades at DB. Even when the DL was healthy, Rogers and Whitner were victimized. Not as bad as it was during the playoffs but noticable.
I believe we should move up to get Star Loutulelei if we do’nt move up with #31 we pick Jesse Williams then turn around and use #34 for Alex Okafor. With our own pick in the 2nd we go after Honey Badger. If we can get williams with the 31st pick and Okafor with #34 we wo’nt need DB’s we will get about 60 sacks next yr.
I hope Tyrann has his act together, the last thing we need is to use a pick on the out of state druggie. And I think Honey Badger is a stupid nickname for a football player.
OK…here’s an off the wall idea. How about signing Vince Young as a back up QB? He’s looking for a second chance, has the athleticism to pass/run and maybe being mentored by JH is just what he needs. Sign him cheap with incentives and bring him to camp to see what he can do and compete with Tolzein.
Young couldn’t handle having two plays at the line of scrimmage, reading the defense presnap and choosing the correct play. He couldn’t do it in college and he couldn’t in the pros.
I love how so many people assume that the success of Kaepernick, Wilson, and Griffin is solely due to their athleticism and that the door is now open for every athletic QB to flourish in the NFL. Like the fact that all 3 of those QBs are intelligent was irrelevant.
Kap without athleticism is Tolzein…skills pay the bills. Heck look at some of the greats and they weren’t the sharpest tools in the shed (Bradshaw for example). I’m smart but run a 7.0 40 and can’t throw the ball in the ocean…lol. Just sayin maybe Harbs can teach him how to read the D if not cut him and no big deal.
All you have to do is watch Tolzien in warmups before a game to realize he had less arm strength than Alex Smith.
Tolzien is a quick decision maker and very accurate. If we can rebuild our defense I think we could win with Tolzien if it came down to it.
The position that will be selected will be determined by the value baalke has on the players available. That is of course unless Baalke spotlights a certain player and gets burnt. common sense says, whichever player that holds the most value at position of need, combined with the consideration of depth of position, will be picked. Example: 1.Alex okeafor. 2. John Jenkins. 2. David amerson. 3. Da’Rick Rodgers. Etc. Also, the secondary was a top 5 secondary with a healthy and strong d line and pass rush. That answers your “chicken or egg” problem.
This may have been brought up, but I don’t know how you can consider both Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith DL. Yes the 3-4 makes it so one (aldon) LB becomes basically a DL. But then you must be saying that they don’t need a NT and Justin Smith and Ray Mcdonald move to DT. Brooks simply isn’t big enough to be considered a DE in a 4-3. So, in my opinion they have 1 DL gap immediately. Would love to see Seymour, or Jenkins come over.
And if you consider Ahmad Brooks and Aldon DL then who is the LB other than Willis and Bowman??
they need both younger stud D-line and corners is not good in playoffs looked tired ,need longer offense drives give D more rest.then we have 3 upgrades
Uh last time I check, the niners Aldon and Brookes were OLB, yes thy lined up at DE, but thats the problem, at the end of the season they were gased and we all saw what happened when J. Smith went down. The niners might not even be able to sign both their DT/NT. You also want one that not only stuffs the run and occupy blockers but can relieve RM and JS and collapse the pocket so that AS and AB can be even more successful.
Also, I bring up Patrick Peterson, who isn’t a lockdown corner yet drafted high. We need DB’s but not before DL.
We need another Smith on defense and another Davis or Joe on Offense. I couldn’t find any in the early rounds.
thank you for reading my post.
A-ha! Free Agents: Fred Davis (TE) Sean Smith (CB)
Or maybe Sammy & Anna Nicole? Good Locker Room chemistry. ; >)