As we know, the statistical difference between Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith was subtle last season.
So, here are some advanced stats to help differentiate the two quarterbacks:
Adjusted yards per attempt: (YPA including sacks minus 45 yards for an INT)
Kaepernick: 7.0 (1st)
Smith: 5.7 (13th)
Other notables: P. Manning: 6.5 (2nd), Brady: 6.4 (3rd)
Deep Percentage (Percentage of passes longer than 15 yards)
Kaepernick: 29.9 (1st)
Smith: 13.8 (39th)
Other notables: Cutler: 28.6 (2nd), Flacco: 26.5 (3rd), Luck: 26.3 (4th), Brees: 17.0 (35th)
Success Rate (“Proportion of plays in which a player is directly involved that would typically be considered successful”)
Kaepernick: 48.9 (14th)
Smith: 51.1 (8th)
Other notables: Brady: 55.7 (1st), Ryan: 55.4 (2nd), Wilson: 52.0 (5th)
Expected points added per play
Kaepernick: 0.19 (12th)
Smith: 0.12 (17th)
Other notables: Brady: 0.27 (1st), P. Manning: 0.26 (2nd), Ryan: 0.26 (3rd)
Win probability added per game
Kaepernick: 0.18 (13th)
Smith: 0.09 (20th)
Other notables: Rodgers: 0.31 (1st), Romo: 0.27 (4th), Luck: 0.26 (5th)
Analysis: According to these advanced stats, Smith was the more efficient quarterback, but Kaepernick contributed more points and more wins. Also, Kaepernick threw downfield more frequently than any other quarterback in the NFL. It’s too bad Trent Baalke hasn’t gotten him a deep threat wide receiver in the draft, like Chris Givens or T.Y. Hilton or Markus Wheaton or Terrance Williams.
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