Michael Crabtree just walked from the locker room to the weight lifting shed sans limp.
He was sporting a light brace on his right ankle and he rode a stationary bike.
so yesterday PFT released the pre-season #1 team on their power rankings. 49ers get the top spot!! They acknowledge the fact that Justin Smith is getting older. That our CB’s are average and dependent on a good pass rush. That the loss of Crabtree could hinder CK7′s development. Grant has pointed all these things out, and hides behind them while he predicts that we will have a horrible season. He says these are the reasons we wont win the SB, Division or even a meaningful playoff game.
However, Grant wont acknowledge that we finally have a real QB! One who can make plays with his arm or legs. One who can win games on his own. One who does not depend on the defense to hold the other team to less than 20 pts. One who can overcome a mistake by the special teams. One who can convert 3rd downs into 1st downs. One who can score touch downs instead of field goals in the red zone. One who can throw for 300-500 yards in a game, thus not allowing the other team to put 8-9 men in the box to stop the run. I could keep going, but i think ive made my point.
We were one of the best teams in the league for 2011 and half of 2012……..without a passing game!!!!!!!!! Our Qb and WR’s struck no fear into ANYONE!!!!! People knew we were a one trick pony ( run the ball) and couldn’t stop us. Our special teams are much better ( on par with 2011, not ’12) and we have a legitimate passing game and therefore a balanced and much more dangerous offense….and therefore a much better team!
” One who can convert 3rd downs into 1st downs. ”
You do realize that the difference between Kaep and CK only .5% right?
I get the excitement for CK, but slow it down just a bit.
i didnt know there WAS a difference between Kaep and CK7. I thought they were the same guy.
Good catch jshaw, but I think you know what I meant.
Jack, i love stats, but sometimes they cant be trusted like one trust there own eyes. The #s between ALEX and Kaep might not be glaring, but the difference between them is. Kaep was moving the ball on 1st, down like Alex never did. Kaep THREW the ball down-field more in 10 games than Alex did in 5 yrs. When CK7 was playing, we were usually up big in games, thus eliminating the importance of the 3rd down conversion. With Alex, we were more likely to be in a close game, thus putting far more importance on the conversion. ( basically, we needed Alex to convert every single one, and he was in the 20-30% range.!! With CK, we were probably trying to run the clock out half the time, therefore he was likely handing the ball off) i would love to see the stats/difference of 3RD DOWN PASS Attempts. That would be a better indicator.
>> With CK, we were probably trying to run the clock out half the time, therefore he was likely handing the ball off
Shaw, were you watching the same team and the season as the rest of us?
The only games that qualify as you describe that would be the Chicago and Green Bay games. We got off to horrible starts in the other playoff games and took heroic effort and luck just acquit ourselves. We needed a 4th qtr comeback to pull out the NE game. It took 14 4th qtr points to pull away from Miami. NO was won in the 2nd half as well. We don’t want to talk about the Seattle or either St Louis game.
jshaw: 3rd down stats
Alex Smith: 38-56, 386 yards 5 TD
Kaepernick: 32-61, 446 yards 3 TD
There goes that theory.
love stats, but sometimes they cant be trusted like one trust there own eyes.
Given the erroneous statements/implications in your most recent comments, I think your trust in your own eyes may be misplaced.
I agree with jack here. I think it’s a system in SF where it doesn’t matter who is under center, the numbers will be about the same until Greg Roman gets out of his own way.
Let’s just hope we aren’t having this same conversation about Colt McCoy and Kaep next off season.
You’re right about mostly slow starts. However, just wanted to point out that the NE game wasn’t a fourth quarter “comeback”, but a fourth quarter score to put the game away. Tom Brady started playing like a maniac, and shredded the D. Can’t remember exactly when Cowboy got hurt, but that might have been a factor. Anyways sorry for being nit-picky.
were you watching the same games that we watched? The New England game was not a 4th quarter comeback kid. A comeback means that we were at some point down in the game. Never happened. 2nd half play calling was horrendous, and we saw the beginning of our 2012 defensive collapse with the Smith injury.
Worst 49ers pass defense I’ve ever seen.
>>A comeback means that we were at some point down in the game.
Umm, no. After NE had tied the game 31-31, SF had to “come back” to retake the lead. And yes, I consider a tie game as bad as a loss.
The point is, none of these games were walks in the part as Jshaw is characterizing them.
If anyone wants an example of why the Alex Smith arguments rage on, this is a beauty. Jshaw, what you posted here has no basis in reality. What your eyes saw was an exciting player, no question about that, but the other things you attribute to him and deride Smith for, didn’t happen. My guess and hope is that he will become what you’ve characterized here, but his numbers were eerily similar to Smith’s for most of the season as was the strategy the team used with Smith playing.
The game situations were also similar in regards to Kap and Smith with each being in a couple of laughers both for and against, but the majority of the time the formula was the same: run the ball, play good defense, make enough plays in the passing game to put points on the board, and go conservative with a lead.
There’s no doubt that Kap has much more upside than Smith, but I sometimes wonder if some actually watch the games or just simply conjure up their own memories of what happened.
I could keep going, but i think ive made my point.
What, that facts aren’t particularly important to you?
Claude, iseen you trolling on Barows live chat the other day…..im watching you….lol:)
Trolling? That wasn’t trolling. Trolling is the making of deliberately provocative comments for the sole purpose of angering other commenters. I just asked a question to learn Barrows’ opinion regarding the Eric Wright trade.
Claude, then, by definition, you are calling Grant the biggest troll of them all
Everything Alex did was meticulously planned and extraordinarily careful, hence he appeared to be working while encased in molasses.
Everything CK does has a white hot electric current running through it, as though the guy has a constant charge of lightning running through him.
Both were effective in average games, but against top competition, CK separated himself, not only ascending above Alex, but also above his illustrious QB counterparts.
Those are facts, witnessed by eyes, as reported by a real journalist.
On another PFT note, Grant’s favorite player, Mr. Balance of power in the NFC west, Percy Harvin, is hurt again and could require surgery!!!!!!!!!!! wow!!!! i thought he would at least make it through HALF OF A SEASON before he got hurt and shut it down as he usually does. LMFAO! So much for the pessimists who have been wondering aloud as to ” how in the heck are the niners gonna cover him!
I knew that guy would be lucky to see the field for 8 games. I for one wasn’t worried about him being in the NFC west, nor any untested tiny rookie WR on the Rams. Those teams are the ones who need to adjust to what the Niners are doing, not the other way around.
Rib, your full of sh!@ WE were up on Miami 20 -6 in the 3rd and up a couple of possessions in NO also,after a Whitner td. Not only did i watch those games, i did some research before i ran my mouth. Chi, NO,AIR, Miami, NE, GB…..6 of 10 starts we won going away…..thus eliminating the importance of scoring, keeping drives alive. SEA was a blowout the other direction. 7 of 10 games, 3rd down werent too important.
Things that jumped out at me between the 2 QB’s:
each with 218 pass attempts
alex completed about 20 more passes that CK
but CK has almost 100 more yards, 2 fewer INT’s and 8 less sacks
so alex completes more passes, ’cause they are underneath throws.
CK throws over the top, completing slightly less, but for more yrds. While throwing less INT’s and being sacked less.
And CK’s deep throws seem to get us early leads thus taking pressure off the D.
Yes guys, i watch the games!! every game!!! either from my seat in sec 16 (season tickets since ’06) or on my ’65 inch plasma! so nah nah nah nah nah!
CK also threw fewer TD passes.
How many did he run for?
Jack ( I’m never wrong ) Hammer doesn’t want to hear that…..
From the time he took over in the Rams game he accounted for 3 rushing TD’s.
The 218 pass attempts stats referrenced above are regular season stats.
As for your comment yesterday about Kaepernick being a threat to score from anywhere, that’s true as long as it’s not from the 5 yard line with the Super Bowl on the line…
He only ran for 3 TDs? Alex threw for more?
You have to count the playoff games, don’t you?
If you want to include playoff games then for accuracy you need to switch from raw numbers to %’s since the sample sizes are different.
CK’s raw numbers including playoffs would be based off 10.74 games compared to 8.26 for Smith.
And if you’re a real stat junky, then you have to also give Kaep credit for the yards he gained and TDs he scored when Alex was the starting QB, and also account for the relative strengths of the teams each QB faced.
Or you could just answer the question, give Kaep the credit he deserves for being THAT much more dynamic than Smith (you’re not a Smither), and stop being the resident contrarian know-it-all.
In 2012 the 49ers offense ran 1155 plays.
Colin Kaepernick – 690 plays. 22 TD’s = a TD every .032 plays
Alex Smith – 465 plays, 13 TD’s = a TD every .027 plays
At that rate had Smith played 690 plays he would have accounted for 18 TD’s.
That may be Jack, but you’re ignoring the well-established correlation between dynamism and winning.
And E’s right, you should stop confusing the discussion by bringing up facts, especially when they get in the way of the story he wants to tell.
Are you joking? Joe Flacco, dynamic. Aaron Rodgers, dynamic. Eli Manning, dynamic. Tom Brady, dynamic. Ben Roethlisberger, dynamic.
Every single one of those guys has a dynamic arm and isn’t afraid to sling the rock downfield.
Jack, get those stats together for me, bud.
jack, claude, rib, You all disagree with my assessment of CK being an upgrade over Alex in the red zone, on 3rd down, scoring td’s instead of field goals, taking less sacks, throwing deep/explosive play ability, thus keeping 8-9 men out of the box(benefiting the run) etc etc..
The only evidence is them being close on 3rd down%….jack, your the stat guru, how about 3rd and long…lets say 3rd and 6 or more. What are the %’s there?
Here is my proof: Alex 8 games, 189 pts scored. 23.6 per game.
only 3 0f 8 playoff teams. G.B. ,Min,and SEA
CK 10 games 288 pts scored. 28.8 per game! over 5 pts a game better than Alex! 5 of 10 playoff teams: G.B. ,ATL, BAL, SEA and N.E. not even counting Chi. who was the hottest teams at the time but didnt make the playoffs!
I didnt mention the tie STL. game. Mulligan. Both QB’s so plenty of action. 24 pts scored.
#rd down % might have been close but thats it! You guys were actually insinuating that the 2 Qb’s were about the same skill level(hhahahah). Ck is almost a td a game better than Alex . In his first 10 starts compared to an 8 year veteran. Alex first 11 starts his rookie year: 1 td 11 int’s. My goal was not to bash Alex ( i truly like the guy and wish him the best). My goal was to emphasize the fact that no matter what/who else is on a decline, the huge upgrade at a premium position, will allow us to actually IMPROVE this upcoming season! :) training camp is here. the season is near. GO NINERS!
Yawn? That’s your response to someone who backs up his claims with abundant evidence. Is that because you have an agenda?
No because anyone who is still comparing Alex to Kaepernick is somewhat irregular, delusional and boring. So yes Yawn!
Jack’s your “Prime Suspect”!
“jack, your the stat guru, how about 3rd and long…lets say 3rd and 6 or more. What are the %’s there?”
How about 3rd and 9 or more?
Alex Smith 17-20 191 yards 1 TD
Kaepernick 14-27 197 yards 1 TD
*According to ESPN splits*
Jack – Here are the future stats that matter. With Jamaal Charles in lineup 16 games Chiefs/Alex go 6-10……Without Jamaal Charles Chiefs/Alex go 0-16.
Crabs finally a voice of reason. 6-10 is exactly what I predicted. Bowe is out this week too. Non football related injury.
An 8-8 record so that our team can get an extra second round pick in the 2014 draft is a voice of reason.
Saw an interesting stat on Twitter the other day. In his career Smith is 3-13 when throwing 35+ passes in a game. Andy Reid’s team in Philly last year averaged 35+ passes per game last season.
Jack – Now that’s a good Alex stat.
Alex can’t go from Michael Bolton to Ozzy Osbourne overnight.
Thanks Crab. Did you know CK has thrown 35+ passes only once? He’s 0-1.
jack, thanks for the stats, but were missing the MOST important factor; CONVERSIONS!
You throw out completion percentage, as if that really matters. Alex throws for 5 yard completions all day on 3rd and 9. Ck has a lower COMPLETION % because hes actually trying to get the first down. hence the more yards per completion.
I’m not going to go through the play by play of every game last year to give you that stat. If you want to put in the time it is easy to find on the ESPN website. Knock yourself out. I would be interested to see that you’ve actually done some analysis.
As for, “Alex throws for 5 yard completions all day on 3rd and 9. Ck has a lower COMPLETION % because hes actually trying to get the first down. hence the more yards per completion.” I guess math is just not your strong suit. While you are correct that Kaepernick had more yards per completion than Smith on those plays, Smith was still at 11.23 yards per completion, and 9.55 per attempt, so not quite 5 yards per completion.
jack, i will find the 3rd down CONVERSION%’s because really thats all that matters. Im surprised you would make such a rookie mistake, throwing completion %’s out as if they have any merit. The only thing of importance on 3rd down is weather you get the first or weather you are punting.
How can you deny that Alex threw short on 3rd down all these years? another example of you hiding behind #’s that are completely out of context. I mention 3rd down conversions and you bring up 3rd down completion%’s. Alex might have averaged 11+ yards a completion on 3rd down due to some throws that were caught and turned into big plays. Thats how averages work jack, dosent mean every throw was for 11 yards, some more, some less, maybe math isnt your strong suite. One of the reasons fans still bash Alex was his knack of throwing the ball short of the 1st down marker and praying the wr could break a tackle or two. If you deny this then i would deny that you actually WATCH niner games. When i was a kid watching the NFL in the early ’90′s, if a guy ran an 8 yard route on 3rd and 10 the brodcasters would rip him hard, saying how foolish it was not to adjust your route to account for the 1st down. We regularly run routes/plays short of the 1st down marker b4 the harbaugh era, hence the “worst coached ” team in the league reference
The 3rd down conversion percentage for each was as follows:
Kaepernick: 45-127, 35.4%
Smith: 36-95, 37.8%
Also checked on the level of competition for each. The average ranking of the defenses Smith faced in his 8.26 games was 15.8. The average ranking of the defenses Kaepernick faced in his 10.74 games was 16.6.
Smith faced a total of 2 defenses ranked higher than 20, Kaepernick faced 4 (3 during the regular season, and 1 in the playoffs.)
As for me using the completion percentage, I mistook your question. I thought you were still going off the number of passes etc like earlier up the thread. Sorry about that.
here you go jack;
in 2011, Alex was 31st in the league at 28.11% of 3rd down conversions and also 30th at scoring td’s in the red Zone!
2012 Alex converted 22-65 3rd downs for a 33.8%
CK converted 14-37 for a 37.8%
These stats tell me 2 things: CK is way better at converting 3rd downs, but more importantly, he dosent even GET to 3rd down ’cause he is successful on 1st and 2nd. Alex faced 65 3rd downs to CK’s 37!!!!!!!!!WTF!!!! same 3 of pass attempts, 218!
People on this sight have been down playing the huge upgrade we have at QB to emphasize our perceived weaknesses elsewhere, obscuring the stats to hide the dramatic improvement at the QB position while harping about age, injury and lack of talent to other players. I will counter pessimistic opinions with facts all day baby. Jack in a way you were right, CK is only marginally better at converting 3rd downs than Alex, but he’s just SO MUCH better than Alex, that he only faces a 3rd down half as often.
*same # of pass attempts, 218*
Based on your numbers Kaepernick faced an average of 3.7 3rd downs per game.
Jack, yeah, as soon as i posted i noticed your post, and realized they didnt match. So i went back and looked, those stats were for PASSES ONLY on 3rd AND 4th down. If the qb ran/scrambled or handed off, those plays were omitted. All i know for sure is that giving each QB the “EYE” test, its a no brainer. Alex plays an annoyingly conservative style whereas Kaep is an exciting gunslinger who is never out of a game or over matched by the opposing Qb. Its a huge upgrade at the most premium of premium positions.
“Alex plays an annoyingly conservative style whereas Kaep is an exciting gunslinger who is never out of a game or over matched by the opposing Qb.”
So basically what you are saying is that it is style over substance. Despite the fact that the two were basically the same last season Kaepernick was way better in your eyes because he was more exciting. It’s too bad that Kaepernick wasn’t exciting on the last 3 plays of the season from the 5 yard line.
As for never being over matched by the opposing QB, please tell me when the opposing QB had anything to do with the performance of either of them.
jack, i always enjoy arguing with you. No, its not simply style that i prefer. We should be comparing Alex’s rookie year 1 td 11 picks. You keep sticking up for an 8 year veteran because his stats are similar to a guy with 10 starts in the NFL. ( read that sentence again). I want the guy that not only gives us a chance to win the SB this year, but every year for the next decade or longer. As far as the “what effect does the opposing QB have on either of them” in 8 years i only saw Alex “mount a comeback against an elite Qb” once; playoffs 2011 against the saints.
My point is, CK can spot elite QB’s double digit leads (A.Rodgers, M.Ryan) and not only not get blown out, but he can come back and win those games. Regularly! Alex cannot, he needs everything to go his way. Elite QB’s come in right away and put up similar numbers to average QB’s with 8 years of experience . Like i said, you compare apples to oranges, compare AS’s first 10 games to CK’s first 10.
With AS, it seemed that scoring 20-30 pts was about the ceiling of our offense on an average day ( of course we could score more occasionally, especially if the D was scoring on turnovers)
with CK, 30-40 seemed more realistic on an average day.
This assumption is why i dont get worked up over the perceived decline of our defense.
Jack, baby! Ive got it!!! I was browsing around other blog topics and i saw a comment you made to another blogger. You basically state that you concede CK has the bigger upside but you are tiered of people acting like he made the team so much better after taking over last year ’cause he and Alex had very similar numbers.
Well ive found the stat that will make you see things through almost everyone else’s eyes.
Alex: 8 starts 4 games the team scored 27 pts or more
CK: 10 starts 8 games of 27 pts or more
50% of the time alex scores at least 27
80% of the time CK scored over 27
and CK did it against a tougher schedule (5 playoff teams to alex’s 3)
CK scores more points in his first 10 games than the 8 year veteran. He did improve the team greatly after taking over, and those are the stats that prove it. It all comes down to scoring and CK scores more pts more often and does it against the tough teams as well as the not so tough!
“CK did it against a tougher schedule”
No he didn’t. The average ranking of the defenses Smith faced in his 8.26 games was 15.8. The average ranking of the defenses Kaepernick faced in his 10.74 games was 16.6.
In 8.26 games Smith faced 5 teams with defenses ranked in the Top 15. In 10.74 games Kaepernick faced the same number, 5 teams with defenses ranked in the Top 15.
Nice try Jshaw. Even saying it twice didn’t make it right. All these stats you so nerdaliciously are trying to uncover really won’t help your cause.
Smith was a good QB for the Niners while under Harbaugh. He didn’t win enough to stay. Now the train moves forward with CK. Like the rest of you pre-mature fantasy fans, stop looking at the stats, give the kid another season, then start labelling how elite he is.
My opinion on Kaepernick/Smith is that this year will answer a lot of questions about both.
Smith will get to show what caliber of a QB he is in a new system – albeit against the bottom feeders of the NFL, by succeeding in KC. (I am picking them to win their division, +600 was hard to pass on with the easiest schedule in the league.)
Kaepernick will be tested early and often against the top half of the league this year. I’m starting to sound like a broken record here, but I think the real chain on both QBs is Greg Roman. This season will tell though.
Well said Matt. Both QB’s get to answer a lot of questions this year. Both QB’s are in great situations to succeed. Both Reid and Harbaugh are good coaches and will develop a system that puts their QB’s strength at the forefront and let their strengths dictate the offensive system.
Regardless of schedule, both QBs will need to play well and win the games they should, and grind out the ones they should not.
This notion of who’s better or who was better moving forward is pointless. Both guys are in good situations and now it’s up to them to prove their doubters wrong.
I agree with both of you.
If you talk to Crab about his Achilles, ask him about stiffness in the morning when he wakes up. When the stiffness begins to subside is when all the musculature is coming back into form.
Careful how you phrase that question to him though Grant – I wouldn’t go asking him about his stiffness in the morning without some context…
I’m having a bittersweet relationship with last year’s 49ers highlights. Love the great play, but Goldson and Crabtree make up almost half the big plays.
To me it’s not about Crabtree coming back this season, but when will he come back at full strength.
That’s good news.
Hopefully Crabtree could be a bonus addition come the playoffs. The question here is; how will his injury and virtual lack of play effect contract negotiations next year?
His numbers over the last two seasons have been respectable and his star was on the rise until the injury. If he is not cleared to play this season, there is no way to prove that he could recapture his performance from the last two years.
Good news! Cheer up and help those young wideouts…
The miracles of modern medicine continue to amaze.
Nope, no HGH going on there…
More optimistic news!
I’ve got a question. How far would Kaepernick have taken the 2011 team?
Not as far as Smith did. The reasoning is simple: Kap was a rookie coming in without an offseason. His grasp of the offense and ability to function at a pro level weren’t at the level he showed last season.
Understood. I’m talking about the 2012 Kaep…. It’s an unrealistic question. I’m just wondering what the kid can and will do when he has a defense playing behind him and is supported by a strong kicking game. He had neither last year.
Ahh I misunderstood what you were saying Bay. My bad. The Kap we had for the final 10 games obviously would have taken us as far as Smith and most likely to the SB, but that is an impossible theory to work through. The kicking game alone would have won the Niners at least two more games last year so hopefully Dawson comes through.
Fing Rocket or whatever your GD name is
That’s a bunch of hooey. When has Kaep ever NOT been the ultimate competitor?
He would have done at least as well if not better than Smith. Again, here’s the comparison:
a straw flinging spitballs
an ICBM launcher hurling nuclear missiles
Who can argue with logic like that E?
Fing Rocket Launcher (aka Colin Kaepernick)
I’m too busy today to bring provide links to all the clutch performances CK has had (minus 4 plays in the SB), but if you want to, just check his college stats, check his performances against Boise St. and review the 10 games he played last year … then tell me you think he couldn’t have matched #11.
Evan Silva knows the real Alex Smith. haha!
Is Colin Kaepernick improving?