49ers mock draft: First-round trade down

If the 49ers do not trade Colin Kaepernick – and it’s beginning to look like they won’t – here are the draft picks I expect they will make.

Round 1: The 49ers trade pick No. 7 to the New York Jets for pick Nos. 20 and 51, plus the Jets’ second-rounder in 2017.

Round 1, pick No. 20 (from the Jets). Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson.

The best man-to-man cover corner in the draft. Alexander gave up only 19 catches and zero touchdowns last season, according to Pro Football Focus. He will start immediately at right cornerback opposite Tramaine Brock.

Round 2, pick No. 37. Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State.

One of the best run-blockers in the draft. Decker played in a college offense that is similar to Chip Kelly’s, and will start immediately at right tackle for the 49ers.

Round 2, pick No. 51 (from the Jets). Paul Perkins, RB, UCLA.

Trent Baalke seems to spend a second-round pick on a running back every other year (LaMichael James in 2012, Carlos Hyde in 2014). Perkins played in a spread offense in college, and is the most elusive back in the draft, according to Pro Football Focus.

Round 3, pick No. 68. Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB, West Virginia.

Six-foot-two inside linebacker who recorded 295 tackles and six interceptions in college, and recently ran a 4.65 at his Pro Day.

Round 4, pick No. 105. Yannick Ngakoue, OLB, Maryland.

One of the NCAA’s most productive pass-rushers last season. Recorded 13 sacks, 10 quarterback hits and 34 hurries, according to Pro Football Focus. Also gave first-round prospect Jack Conklin all he could handle.

Round 4, pick No. 133. Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia.

Deep threat with long arms who recently ran a 4.4 his Pro Day.

Round 5, pick No. 142. Kevin Byard, FS, Middle Tennessee State.

Small-school free safety who picked off 19 passes in college.

Round 5, pick No. 145. Dean Lowry, DE, Northwestern.

One of the best bull-rushers in the draft, according to Pro Football Focus.

Round 5, pick No. 174. Graham Glasgow, G/C, Michigan.

Six-foot-six guard who also can play center and fits a zone-blocking scheme.

Round 6, pick No. 178. Stephen Anderson, TE, Cal.

H-back who caught 101 passes in college and recently ran a 4.58 at his Pro Day.

Round 6, pick No. 207. Dadi Nicolas, OLB, Virginia Tech.

Speed-rusher who recorded three sacks, 10 quarterback hits and 35 hurries last season, according to Pro Football Focus.

Round 6, pick No. 211. Marquez North, WR, Tennessee.

Big split end who recently ran a 4.42 at his Pro Day.

Round 6, pick No. 213. Jake Coker, QB, Alabama.

One-year starter who won the National Championship last season, recorded an accuracy percentage of 77.6 overall (fourth-best in the draft), 46.8 on passes that traveled more than 20 yards downfield, and 62.0 under pressure while throwing nine touchdown passes (only Jared Goff and Matt Johnson threw more TD passes under pressure), according to Pro Football Focus. Coker also ran for 5.8 yards per carry on three carries per game. He’s 236 pounds.

  1. Grant, if you were the Broncos, wouldn’t you rather trade a second round pick to TB for Mike Glennon at his lower salary than pay Kaepernick $8 million and trade a 5th to the 49ers?

    I think Glennon has so much more potential than Kaepernick.

    Thanks… really hope to get your opionion.

          1. Potential to ride a defense there…thats about all the potential he has. Kaep has shown he is incapable of being more than a game manager (and a poor one at that more often than not). You can find many guys who don’t screw up and will cost less than 16 million.

      1. I still think Glennon would be a great fit for Denver. The play action pass game and a great defense can be very QB friendly. Glennon is not nearly as bad as so many so-called experts make him out to be.

    1. Alan, I agree with you about Glennon, and Denver might not have to offer a 2nd round pick. The Bucs might settle for less. Another alternative for Denver might be McCown. We might be stuck with Kaepernick.

  2. This is a horrific mock draft. Can’t get much worse then this. Why I’m not surprised that you have once again mocked a corner in rnd 1 for the Niners. You just don’t get it.

    1. We need a #1 CB Rebuild. Brock is a #2 at best, and we have been burned in the secondary because of that.

      1. It doesn’t matter if we need a number 1 corner or not. Balke does not invest in corners in the first 2 rnds. That’s not his philosophy. Yet every year you get people like Grant that place a corner in the first rnd for the Niners. The pick is Buckner or Jack. Whoever is there. If both are gone it will be Goff. Pretty simple.

        1. Baalke invested in a CB when he drafted Ward Rebuild.
          I should also point out there is no guarantee Jack or Goff will be available when the 49ers draft in the first round, and Baalke pretty well shut the door on drafting Buckner when he extended Dial.

          1. Negative. Ward was drafted as a Safety not a corner. He was converted to play the Nickel corner but he is a Safety. Extending Dial has nothing to do with Buckner being drafted or not. Especially considering Williams might not be available for a good portion in the early going. Dial can play the nose. There is no guarantee that Golf or Jack will be there true but I can guarantee you that they will not draft a corner in rnd 1.

            1. Negative, Ward was drafted to play slot CB, with the flexibility to be able to play safety. Baalke said exactly that after he was drafted.

              1. Ward was taken by the Niners to play Nickel corner. That does not mean everyone views him as a corner.. He can’t play as an outside corner. He used as a safety as well at times last year. His position coming out is safety. Not corner.. What has Dial done to warrant a starting job? His contract is ok not great. More like a rotational player. Buckner is an Elite prospect period… You draft a guy like that when you can…

              2. What gets my goat is the fact that Bradley Roby was taken with the next pick. Baalke was trying to get cute and selected a player no one was expecting while the real prize went unclaimed until the next pick.

              3. Rebuild, the only thing that matters is how the 49ers view him. They view him as a slot CB, whether you like it or not. He may end up at safety in time, but he was drafted to take over from Carlos Rogers in the slot.

                Seb, the 49ers taking Ward over Roby is going to be seen as a great move in time. Ward was starting to show his quality last year. Very good season by him. And he’ll keep improving.

              4. Exactly. Saying Ward was drafted as a safety is the same as similar to saying Bruce Miller was drafted as a Defensive End. While technically accurate it completely misrepresents what the player was for.

              5. Scooter, Roby helped shut down the Patriot and Panther receivers that helped the Broncos win a SB. Think he is pretty good.

            2. There’s too much nonsense in your rebuttal. First, Ward was a safety that was drafted as a NCB. Claiming anything else would be inaccurate. Second, Dial’s extension has everything to do with whether Baalke drafts Buckner or not. You don’t draft a DE in the first round of last year’s draft and extend your other starting DE while planning on taking another first round DE the following year. Third, Dial does not have much experience playing NT, and it could be a bad fit in O’Neil’s defense. Finally, trying to guarantee the 49ers won’t take a CB is the same as saying they won’t take a QB in the first round because of what Baalke has done in the past.

            3. Obviously Ward was drafted to play Corner. You’re being stubborn. The other guy is right, Baalke drafted Ward with the intention of making him the nickel. Hence…Baalke drafted a CB in the first round. Remember, it’s ok to be wrong, but it’s stupid to stick to the narrative when proven wrong.

              1. I agree. Ward was not signed to be a safety. They drafted Eric Reid the year before and signed Bethea as a FA, so they were set at safety. They also lost Carlos Rogers and Tarrell Brown, both the starting CBs.
                The draft status says safety, but he was drafted to be the NCB.
                That is why I was so frustrated when they picked Ward when Roby, a cornerback, was chosen next pick.

              2. FWIW Seb, Jimmie Ward was ranked the 32nd best CB in 2015 by PFF (of 119 graded CBs), with an overall grade of 78.4. Roby was ranked 27th with 79.8. Roby had the luxury of playing on a significantly better overall D.

                For all the wailing about missing out on Roby, you are neglecting to see the 49ers got a very promising player in his own right, that has played well despite the mixed play of those around him.

                What I find quite funny though is that despite all the commentary about the 49ers needing CBs, they got some decent play from the group last year. Ward was ranked 32, Brock 38, Johnson 58 and Acker 70. All while getting little help from the pass rush. Sure, its an area that can be improved, but the CBs weren’t the problem last year, it was the pass rush and coverage over the middle by the LBs.

              3. Well, when Roby shut down his receiver and had 3 passes defended, he looked pretty good in the Super Bowl.
                Like you say, Ward also had decent numbers during the season, but I thought Roby really helped the Broncos during the playoffs.
                Guess I just like to second guess Baalke picks like choosing AJ Jenkins, then seeing Doug Martin picked next who just ran for 1400 yards last season. Also, Alshon Jeffrey was still available. Of course, Baalke picked Aldon Smith while JJ Watt was available.

              4. Scooter, I totally agree that the Niners need to improve the pass rush. That is why I have been adamant selecting pass rushers in all my mocks, usually in the first 3 rounds.

        2. Goff is not the fit for Kelly. Regardless of being a “home town kid” with proximity to the Marin neighborhood, if I am Goff, I want another destination for my NFL career.

        3. Rebuild,

          Since when has guessing who Baalke is going to pick been easy? I can almost guarantee that you haven’t guessed correctly on who we were going to draft in the first round in the last 5 years…

          You know why? Because it’s Baalke…

          1. This is truth. If we had just drafted who most of the talking heads said we should draft, we would have been better off, talent wise.

    2. Actually, this is a well structured draft analysis, although I am not a fan of the Bama QB. Has some Druckenmiller flaws which do not appeal to me. I would rather expend an earlier pick in the 4th or 5th rounds on the Stanford kid because at least he has some mobility and a good IQ.

      1. Fair enough re: Coker. If Hogan isn’t available, I like Trevone Boykin in the fifth. He’s a fantastic deep passer.

        1. Any prospect that has had a run-in with the law or their school is probably not even on Baalke’s board.

    3. Right on! If Mackensie Alexander is as good as advertised, no way he falls to pick 20. This is nothing more than click bait.

  3. Grant, your draft has a real possibility.

    With the NFL trade rumors amping up fast and furious, here’s my top 10:

    1. Cle–Carson Wentz, 2. Tenn, Laremy Tunsill, 3. Cowboys–Jared Goff, 4. SD–Jalen Ramsey, 5. Jags–Myles Jack, 6. Balt–Deforest Buckner , 7. 49ers–Joey Bosa, Ohio State University, 7. Philly–Ezekiel Elliot, 8. Tampa Bay, 9. TB–Vernon Hargreaves III, 10. NYG–Ronnie Stanley

  4. Grant, your best mock yet. Like all the players since most of them have been discussed previously on this site. Since this draft is so deep defensively, maybe getting the BPA at 20 is the best decision.
    See you went Bold with Coker. Maybe he will be like the Bengals Bama QB. Good fill in if the starter gets injured.

      1. I am still praying that Kaep stays. If not, Gabbert is still the starter and they should draft Cardale Jones, Kevin Hogan or Jacoby Brissett with a mid round pick, and Vernon Adams or Jeff Driskell with a later pick.
        I like Perkins a lot, and he would be a great change of pace RB to work in tandem with Hyde. Maybe Prosise could be picked later, but Perkins would help the running game.
        Maybe the best strategy is to roll with Gabbert, and select a franchise QB next year, because this year’s QB class has been rated weak.

  5. I’m feeling this draft a lot! I wouldn’t be mad if this happens. I don’t like hake Coker though rather take Vernon Adams or Brandon Allen

    1. I think Grant likes to pull our chain just to stir things up, but Coker has the size that Chip likes and he is a winner.

        1. He has a slow release with a ton of single read throws in college…I don’t see how he’s a fit for Chip’s system at all. It’s not a big deal if your drafting him in the 6th, but this team has zero as far as long-term options go at QB…Blaine is a FA, Kap most likely is gone sooner than later and our other backups are done after this season as well….no way do you wait until the 6th round for a QB, unless your plan is to throw all your picks to move up for Watson next year which is silly.

        2. Grant,
          I agree that Coker (who I had in one of my earlier mocks) is under the radar and has the idea size and pedigree for a good pro QB. But Brandon Allen is totally off the radar and the kid can be had from the 4-5th rd. Not idea size at 6’2″ but his productivity was comparable to the big horses.

        3. How does Coker fit the running threat requirement you have been arguing for? He’s not a runner and he’s not elusive in the pocket either.

          1. Coker averaged 5.8 yards per carry on three carries per game at Alabama. He’s mobile, and he’s big enough to handle more carries per game.

            1. Have you watched him run? He’s not a running QB in the NFL in any way shape or form. He’s a big guy who is not going to evade tacklers or escape pressure for that matter.

              1. Absolutely. He runs well, better than Paxton Lynch who also is a good runner. Coker is more elusive.

              2. That is more a knock on Lynch than a compliment to Coker. One of the reasons why I’m not big on Lynch is that at his size he is a big target and will not evade pressure that well in the NFL.

              3. Not a knock on Lynch at all. Both Lynch and Coker are faster and more elusive than Blake Bortles, who runs a 4.93 and averages 6.8 yards per carry in the NFL.

              4. Grant,

                You have been adamant that a QB in Kelly’s offense needs to be a running threat and used that analogy to say Goff wasn’t a fit for the system. You’ve based this on the fact teams have to feel the QB is a threat to run not just on scrambles under pressure like a Bortles, but as a possible designed play. Coker is not a guy who is going to have success carrying out designed running plays in the NFL. He is not going to be much of a rushing threat to NFL defenses period. He certainly is not the prototype for Kelly’s offense in any regard. He has a slow delivery, and is not overly elusive in the pocket, Coker’s best plays came on play action, slow developing throws deep down field.

              5. So can Nick Foles, Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez for that matter. Any body can run it, but Coker does not fit what you have been advocating for anymore than Goff does. He’s a bigger guy sure, but he also doesn’t protect himself or look to avoid contact. Goff doesn’t take a hit when he runs.

              1. Cook threw just one TD pass when he was under pressure last season. He is the ultimate mirage.

            1. I disagree. Playing in a pro style offense he displayed he could make NFL caliber throws. Of course he was under duress and could stand in and deliver throws and take the punishment.
              He was MSU’s offense amd is more NFL ready than Wentz who played against who?
              As for Coker, come on. Look who he had as a supporting cast.

              1. Was Coker essential to Alabama? Anyone could have QB’ed that team and won.
                Cook and Goff in my opinion are the most NFL ready. Both guys could benefit from sitting and learning as a back up but could play as early as week 8. The other prospects, I think would need a year or more to be NFL capable.
                What separates Goff and Cook from everyone else is their ability to be accurate, good decision makers (protecting the ball) and having the ability to others around them better. When you have to make pro style throws in a 4 year college career, it helps.

              2. Seriously Prime! No joke. Just when I think Grant is turning the corner, and starting to sound like a real, genuine NFL personnel guy, even when we respectfully disagree, and then he goes and touts Coker over Cook, and sets himself back to junior varsity level.

            2. Unfortunately, the Michigan State QB reminds me too much of another Big 10 QB years ago, although they were not a member of the Big 10 at that time – Todd Blackledge (Penn State) – robotic and a bit stiff with limited mobility

              1. Coker is the very definition of robotic while Connor Cook is touted as a very NATURAL thrower!

              2. Cook threw 1 TD pass while under pressure last season. He’s robotic and can’t function without a clean pocket.

              3. It sounds like you watched one of his games and that was against the best team in college football.
                Granted he played terrible that game but to say he is robotic is almost funny.
                He’s got touch, size, escapability and he is accurate. He will be a steal late in the 1st or early 2nd.

            3. COKER > COOK? What does that mean? Please tell me you aren’t ranking them that way as NFL prospects?

              If you are Grant, it’s shameful!

              Absolute heresy in Bill Walsh’s world, rest his soul. Bill would be rolling in his grave if he read your last post Grant. You are touting a 1 year starter who couldn’t beat out BLAKE SIMS as a junior, and was even benched as a senior, over a 3 year starter who showed tremendous growth each year, amassing a 34-5 record in the Big Ten, while compiling multiple accolade including 2015 JOHNNY UNITAS GOLDEN ARM AWARD.

              JAKE COKER, despite a 6’5″, 240 lb frame, and being the starting QB for the Alabama Crimson Tide for most of his senior season, Jake Coker was not even invited to the NFL Scouting Combine, and could go undrafted (ranked anywhere from #250 – #350 overall on most credible draft databases). I could end it here, and win this debate by dropping the microphone, and walking off stage, but I won’t just yet.

              Here is Pro Football Focus’s analyst JOHN BREITENBACH assessment. Alabama QB Jacob Coker has multiple issues with his decision-making and pocket presence.

              Cover your ears, Coker family, as this might get ugly. “He makes too many poor decisions, is inconsistent with his accuracy and looks a little tentative in the pocket” Breitenbach wrote, adding, “Coker took a number of sacks by holding the ball too long in 2015 and appeared a little gun-shy at times, preferring to go down rather than find a receiver down field.” The analyst wouldn’t even toss the 6-foot-5, 236-pounder a token “game manager” label, noting that he sometimes made mistakes even in management. While Breitenbach categorizes Coker as an UDFA.

              CONNOR COOK’S accomplishments despite being surround by a less talented group of football players:

              THREE-YEAR STARTER HAD A 34-5 (.872) CAREER RECORD, 2015 JOHNNY UNITAS GOLDEN ARM AWARD WINNER, 2015 BIG TEN QUARTERBACK OF THE YEAR, 2015 FIRST-TEAM ALL-BIG TEN,MSU’S ALL-TIME WINNINGEST QB, FINISHED HIS CAREER AS MSU’S ALL-TIME LEADER IN TD PASSES (71), PASSING YARDS (9,194) AND TOTAL OFFENSE (9,403 YDS), FINISHED TIED FOR NINTH IN 2015 HEISMAN TROPHY VOTING, 2015 MANNING AWARD FINALIST, 2015 CHICAGO TRIBUNE SILVER FOOTBALL FINALIST (BIG TEN’S BEST PLAYER), 2015 DAVEY O’BRIEN & MAXWELL AWARD SEMIFINALIST.

              JAKE COKER :

              Positives:

              Jake Coker has an NFL body (6’6″ 244 lbs), is mobile for his size, and has experience in a pro style system. The positives stop there!

              Negatives:

              – Horrendous footwork, even when he isn’t being harassed.
              – Retreats and scrambles rather than stepping up into the pocket .
              – CABIN FEVER! Sees ghosts constantly and PANICS when reads don’t open up quickly.
              – Sluggish processor who moves slowly through his reads and often fails to go to even look at his checkdown.
              – ROBOTIC setup AND delivery! Doesn’t readily set up and zip the ball with confidence.
              – Horrendous accuracy on intermediate routes and longer.
              – Alabama run-heavy offense was likely the only reason he survived as a starter for his senior year.
              – Easy completions padded stats.

              Another Scout’s take:

              Coker enjoyed some flashes of brilliance during Alabama’s run to a national title, so much so that he put himself on the radar of NFL scouts with his prototypical size and big arm. Unfortunately Coker looks the part more than he plays like it, struggling to place passes properly down the field and consistently unraveling under pressure. The Crimson Tide passer has the arm to make all the throws, but his accuracy only extends to clean-pocket tosses in the short-intermediate range, and his lethargic release grants defenders the opportunity to contest catch points. Coker has some developmental potential and will work hard to improve his game, but right now he’s a camp body who will need to prove himself during the summer to garner a roster spot.

              My final word: Shame on you Grant! If Coker had played for say, Boise State, instead of Alabama, I would be willing to bet you wouldn’t even know his name!

              1. Of course, Coker could suddenly become a completely different guy when he becomes a pro. But the odds of that happening are ASTRONOMICAL, and anyone working for an NFL team, preparing for the NFL draft, would be fired on site, if they even whispered Coker’s name ahead of Connor Cook! THAT’S A FACT, JACK!

              2. Now I know why you are so stuck on statistics Grant. You obviously have never broken down cut ups of game film! If you think Cook is more robotic than Coker, I’m simply done debating the QB position with you.

                Coker has a reputation as a guy who has what Jaws calls Cabin Fever. You think Colin Kaepernick, or Sam Bradford see ghosts? Coker plays QB like he’s living out a nightmare, while turning into a zombie! And I’m not trying to be funny! He has almost no chance to even make a squad as a 3rd stringer.

                Oh, you’ll find the occasional analyst who thinks, a guy with his NFL body, who played for ALABAMA, must have some sort of shot at being an NFL QB.

                But then all you need to do is ask yourself………. how is it an ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE QB didn’t even get invited to the Indy Grant?

                Answer that?

              3. Coker threw nine TD passes while under pressure last season. Cook threw one. Big difference.

              4. I mean, there is a lot of talk about Connor Cook moving up everyone draft boards now and looking like he’s probably going to be drafted in round 1, and you can, apparently with a straight face, claim you think a guy who very easily could go undrafted, despite getting unmatched exposure as an ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE QB, is a better prospect?

                Mind boggling Grant!

                Coker wasn’t even NFL combine worthy, despite playing for the top NCAA Football team in the country. Unbelievable!

              5. Pro Football talk gives Cook a 4th round grade. He is a product of a dominant offensive line.

              6. Good thing Coker didn’t have a dominant offensive line or dominant running game to rely on…

              7. Coker won a national championship and played well in that game.
                In the Jan 1st Cotton Bowl game against Bama, Cook was 19 for 39, 2 picks, no TDs and only passed for 210 yards. In the biggest game of his life, he was shut out 0-38. Cook was so rattled, he yelled on frustration,” they are freakin EVERYWHERE!”
                Coker was 25 for 30, no picks, 2 TDs and passed for 286 yards. He outplayed Cook by a mile.

              8. One game doesn’t define a player. Maybe have an opinion of Cook if you ever watched him play more than one game against a team no one was beating that night!

              9. I cited 2 games, the Cotton bowl against the number 3 team in the nation and the National championship game against the number one ranked team in the country. I think I also watched Bama play Georgia, LSU and the Florida gators.

            4. I just want you to know you’ve opened my eyes to a whole new way of grading football players grant. Statistics. Man, why didn’t someone think of that sooner Grant? Why do scouts and NFL personnel guys stay up till the sun comes up, watching and breaking down game film?

              Why not just rank players based on statistics? That seems to always be your answer Grant. It seems to be your view that statistics tell the whole story.

              Let’s start with QB’s. Why not just rank the QB’s in this years draft class based on statistics? The QB with the best completion percentage and passer rating, ought to be the #1 rated QB, right? And so on and so forth.

              As for a QB’s ability to carry the rock? No need to break down film. No need for 40 times or the other drills at the combine right? Whichever QB has the best YPC, over the course of the season, is clearly the best runner, right? And so on and so forth?

              And, let’s be real. The type of offense a team runs has no effect on the outcome of these statistics either right. All offenses are the same in terms of completion %, YPA, YPC, etc, right? It doesn’t really matter what types of throws these QB’s are being asked to make right? It’s all about the statistics, because all passes are the same.

              Dang, this just got a whole lot easier Grant6.

              And we can completely toss out W-L record, right. 34-5 as a starter in the big Ten? Who cares right? Because you can’t judge a QB based on whether he wins and loses right? It’s only the most important position on the football team, but what influence does a QB really have on winning and losing, right?

              I want to thank you Grant. My colleagues and I have been wasting way, way too much time cutting up game film? All we had to do is read the numbers. Statistic tell the story. End of conversation.

              Whew. Can someone get Trent Baalke on the line. I’ve got to tell him about these statistics you’re touting Grant. Statistics with an S, right?

        4. Grant. Here is more of PFF take on your boy JAKE COKER. The Alabama QB who NFL executives and scouts are so intrigued by, he didn’t get invited to the combine.

          COKER (-11.6 grade) currently ranks a woeful No. 135 of 153 qualifying quarterbacks in terms of pure passing, and inconsistency has been his biggest issue. After two positively graded games against Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia, Coker had a terrible outing against Arkansas (-5.0). Overall he completed just three of nine targets further than 10 yards downfield, with a pair of picks and one touchdown. Coker may have completed 20 of 25 passes with a clean pocket, but for only 165 yards (6.6 yards per attempt) and an interception. The game against Arkansas marks the fourth time Coker has recorded a -4.0 passing grade or worse in the season’s first six weeks. He also struggled against Middle Tennessee State (-4.1) and Ole Miss (-7.5). Coker is now No. 48 of 65 qualifiers in accuracy percentage, showing good location on just 65.9 percent of throws. He also ranks near the bottom of the nation in deep passing (just five completions from 22 attempts, with two scores and four picks).

          Look Grant, I think you are wrong about Cook, who is gaining momentum with only a couple weeks before the draft. None of this year’s QB prospects are without flaws and Cook is certainly no exception. And let’s face it……QB’s are probably the toughest position players to project at the NFL level. We have gone back and forth on Cook and it’s been a healthy debate. However, you’ve now managed to take that healthy conversation and poison the well. You cannot possibly think COKER is a better prospect that COOK. I’m simply not buying it. These 2 guys are so far apart in terms the of the qualities that project well as a pro, and the type of college production that helps inform our opinions. You tout Cook as being a product of a dominant OL, yet Alabama also had one of the top OL’s in college this past season and a far superior rushing attack (Alabama 32nd in YPG, Mich St. 94th). You say Cook is robotic, yet, he has a reputation for the opposite. Coker, on the other hand, IS the guy considered robotic, by most scouts. You can find the word robotic on most of his scouting reports.

          My point is that I suspect you type provocative things to illicit a response from your readers. Apparently, if you see a statistic that appears to support your position on the surface, you seem to be comfortable ignoring all of the other information that runs counter to your argument. And it devolves a healthy debate into a waste of time.

          Connor Cook may, or may not, develop into a starter at the NFL level. However, you can search high and low throughout the universe, and you won’t find a credible NFL talent evaluator who supports your opinion that Coker is a better prospect. That is because we have a wealth of the tools, and resources available today, which we can use to help us evaluate a player’s performance and abilities, in order to project their potential at the next level.

          I have included a SB Nation, DANNY KELLY article titled:

          NOT JUST THROWING DARTS – a behind the scenes look at the NFL scouting process, and how players ultimately land on each team’s draft board.

          http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/3/6/5473554/2014-nfl-draft-scouting-process-big-board

          Let’s just consider this a form of “intervention”. Hopefully you will read it, because the first step in the recovery process is always the most important.

          1. According to Pro Football Focus, Coker’s accuracy percentage last season was 77.6 — fourth-best in this draft class.

            Cook’s accuracy percentage was 66.5 — 39th-best in this draft class.

            1. Grant, I suggest you use all of these stats to supplement your analysis, not as a crutch.

              STEPHEN CURRY is probably the greatest shooter of the basketball I have ever seen. He has a career .477 FG%.

              However, SHAQUILLE O’NEAL has a far, far superior .582 FG%.

            2. Of course, you can always find differing opinions. However, if you take everyone’s opinion and put them all together, you can form an AVERAGE OPINION. In other words, a CONSENSUS. And the average opinion as we speak, is that Connor Cook is one of the top 4 prospects in this draft class, and Coker is a borderline, draftable prospect.

              That’s a fact!

              1. And while were being honest Grant ….. the only person who is happy to go on record, stating that COKER > COOK is somebody who is so full of themselves, that they believe that they are smarter than EVERYONE else!

  6. Wouldn’t hate it…but Perkins in the 2nd? No way they spend a top 50 pick on a RB… there should be much better prospects sitting there and there is talent at RB later (I like Irvin). I hate waiting until the last pick to draft a QB as well. that 51st pick would be ideal spot for grabbing Dak who could be prefect for Chip’s offense.

    I just don’t see them spend ANOTHER high pick on secondary. FYI I don’t see Yannick Ngakoue being the pick with those small arm not a Baalke/Chip fit at all.

  7. Good mock Grant.

    Where do you see DeForest Buckner and Charone Peake going. I would love for the 49ers to get one or both of these guys.

  8. A pretty un inspiring trade, but I could see Baalke making these types of moves, as I’ve become used to disappointment these last few offseason. I still see way better value at just staying pact at number 7 and taking BPA. The drop off in talent after the top 10 pick is pretty significant. Jets get the best of this trade, in my opinion.

  9. Seriously?!? Coker??? Name the last successful Alabama QB to be successful in the NFL??? Alabama QB’s are built up by having supreme talent and coaching at the college level……This would be the least interesting or exciting draft in years…..even less exciting than the 2012 draft that was bad….

        1. Thanks. I can do better than Coker.

          Re-do:
          20. Mackensie Alexander
          37. Taylor Decker
          51. Paul Perkins
          68. Nick Kwiatkoski
          105. Yannick Ngakoue
          133. Malcolm Mitchell
          142. Trevone Boykin

    1. Finally a question for an old timer like me. Last Alabama NFL QB would be Kenny Stabler (RIP) and before that Joe Willie Namath. That’s back when NFL QBs prepared on Sunday by downing a pint of bourbon and in Kenny’s case smoked a half pack of cigarettes. Alabama doesn’t recruit those types any more so….

      1. Not that I am comparing greatness of Bama QBs, but if you are talking about Bama QBs in the NFL, did not Richard Todd also come from Alabama???

        1. You are correct Mike. He was the last Alabama QB drafted in the first round. Must have been a senior moment for me because I forgot about him. I’m at the point where I have short term memory loss and short term memory loss.

  10. Grant

    Very impressive array… probably a whole lot more accurate than the ‘hopefuls’ that I would have chosen….I do like Coker, and Nicolas…and Glasgow looks very interesting

  11. Overall I wouldn’t say it’s a bad draft, but I do think we are passing on top talent by trading that far down. Alexander also doesn’t fit the mold of what Baalke traditionally likes in a CB size wise. Decker is likely a first round pick and Perkins in the second is a little high from most of the drafts I’ve looked at.

    As is usually the case, I like the players you got in the later rounds better than the top 3 rounds.

    1. Thanks. Decker is a pure right tackle, not a left tackle, so I think he will drop. Perkins is the second-best running back in the draft and he fits Kelly’s offense. Alexander is really good at press and man coverage, which is what the Niners are looking for.

      1. You might be right on Decker, but even RT’s go in the first now, at least the top rated one anyway. I like Perkins a lot, but I have a hard time seeing him go in the second with the value teams put on the position and the number of similar players available likely through the beginning of day 3.

        Alexander seems to be a polarizing prospect. He ranges anywhere from the mid first round to the second and most of it appears to be due to his size. I don’t think he’d be a bad pick. I just don’t think he fits Baalke’s preference for the position.

  12. I actually really like this draft scenario. Fills 2 immediate needs with the first 2 picks. I don’t agree with much that you say (you blocked me on Twitter) but this I agree with.

    I love Yannick Ngakoue in the 4th.

  13. Coker is not elusive, he’s slow and he takes on tacklers instead of sliding. He is not a running QB at the NFL level and will get himself killed running the way he did at Alabama this year.

  14. Not a bad draft. I like the trade back and the o-line picks. I don’t like the RB in the 2nd or the FS in the 5th. Would prefer to pick a TE much higher in this draft.

    1. I’m never a fan of drafting RBs high, but Baalke is, and I really like Perkins.

      I think Stephen Anderson is the best TE in the draft.

      1. They say that this TE draft class is weak, so maybe the best strategy is staying with the present players, and concentrate on defense.
        Stephen Anderson was not even on the CBS draft board and was 326 on the Draftek board. You picked him in the 6th, but he might be available as an UDFA.

  15. Man Grant loves is “shut down” CBs. Front 7 and CB pressure over strong secondary any day, IMO at least.

    I like the trade idea. Either go up and get the QB you want…or go back and stock pile some picks.

    My concern with back so far is we need an impact player or two in this draft. With some fill in. I’d argue beef the OL and pass rush with early picks if we trade back.

    With that, I like the 2nd round UCLA running back. I’m concerned with Hyde’s health. Maybe that WR from Notre Dame will be there.

  16. Grant,
    Do you see Perkins as the 9ers #2 RB ready to step in for Hyde in case of injury or just a change of pace back?

    1. If 49ers do not draft QB’s on day 1, Jacoby Brissett and Vernon Adams allows the 49ers to trade down for more picks and are mobile enough for Kelly’s offense. This is the way I think they go.

  17. Good mock with three problem areas.
    1) Decker was suspended at one point during his time at OSU, so that most likely takes him off the board even if he is a fit for Kelly’s offense.
    2) I like Lowry, but he doesn’t have the vines that Baalkes covets with the DE position.
    3) Coker > Cook? I don’t care about Cook, but even I wouldn’t say something like that. Cook can be a starter in the right system while Coker is at best a capable backup QB.

      1. I just read a 2012 PFF article that said Smith’s length (including his arms was an idea prototype for a 5 technique. So how short were Smith’s arms?

          1. That’s 1.5 inches longer than Lowry’s arms.
            Smith has already established himself as a capable DL before Baalke became the GM, so there’s that factor to take into consideration as well.

    1. Lowry also has small hands for a DE, so that’s another point against him in terms of what Baalke wants at the position.

  18. Ridiculous mock draft. So many bigger needs than a CB and Taylor Decker won’t be there in the 2nd round. Waiting till the last pick of the draft to handle what most everyone else agrees is the Niners biggest need shows you how awful this mock is.

  19. As I stated earlier. Jed and York can’t have their cake and eat it too…They knew they were lowballing 49er PSL holders/fans with the Tomsula and radio host hire–possibly the worst staff in the history of the NFL.
    With Kap not developed properly as he would have been had Jed been responsible enough to hire a QB developmental coach coach (Shannahan, Holmgren, Shannahan Jr., Guden Jr.) Kap’s development may have acquired the 2nd rounder the FO covets.
    Alas, the 49ers did not due their due diligence in this area and its cost them…Don’t expect a team to take a 30 year old developmental problem you created Jed.

      1. Don’t expect to spend no money on coaches, shop for bargain basement ACL athletes in the draft, and reap benefits for your cheapness either, JED…The Broncos aren’t stupid and know exactly the money you invested in Kap, so are’t about to take your developmental problem.

          1. Oh, and please Email me Jed or Trent the moment you dip into that 60 million in cap space for a free agent.

            Thank you in advance for caring about the upcoming Miley Cyrus concert and installing fresh turf for her.

            1. I remember you slapped Harbaugh around for pulling his team off Levi’s turf in front of Silicon Valley wine sippers maiden practice viewing. Will you Slap Miley if she complains about the turf?

    1. They CAN have their cake and eat it too………….even if its somebody elses cake. Expect to see a trade down for some weak, fat linemen with ACL problems that can be stowed away for 2-3 years.

  20. I really think the idea of trade down is the best way to go. I don’t want to see us draft a rookie QB at 7 and have no one to help him and destroy his confidence and career in year 1. I do disagree with your top 2 picks. Ballke is basically on his last leg as GM and he needs impact. This team has been dragged down by the offense and the defense has been on the field a ridiculous amount even with out Chip Kelly being here. We need to score points so our defense can play with a lead and can have that going in their favor.
    They don’t have a legit #1 WR and to me Josh Doctson would be that guy. CB is very deep in the draft and we can hit on a CB later in the draft. WR is a huge need on this team. I could see us using one of our 2nd round picks if we trade back on a good CB.

    1. And as far as second round selecting an OT, with Davis supposedly coming back I don’t know if that is a need. Why not get Hunter Henry if he is available and really put weapons in place for a QB to have success. Now you took a bottom of the league offense and just gave it speed, respectability and hopefully we won’t be playing from behind all the time. You can still get pass rushers and CBs with the other day 2 picks.

    1. Grant …

      Am I the only one, who found a
      little humor .. in your 6th rounder ? …

      I mean … what are the chances ..
      Baalke shops … there … for
      a player ?

  21. Even if they keep Kaep I think they’ll take a QB in the first 3 rounds. And don’t see them taking two edge players.

    A CB in round 1 in your scenario makes sense, but my guess would be they take Cook and Deion Jones in round 2, then best available OL, WR or pass rusher in round 3.

  22. If the 49ers don’t go QB in round 1 I think they will aim to trade down at most 6 spots (to the Dolphins, who may be looking at Elliott), with the aim of drafting Lawson or Lee.

  23. If the 49ers take Coker in the 6th round it is because they view him as a 6th round prospect (i.e., not highly). You have said previously you rate Cook a 4th rounder, so how is it you rate Coker ahead of him yet have the 49ers taking him in the 6th? If the 49ers like him as much as you do (better than a 4th rounder) then they will draft him well before the 6th round.

    1. The NCAA isn’t going to change until the athletes force them. They need to quit complaining and organize. Just the threat of a strike will change everything.

      1. This is the same Cardale Jones who once tweeted, “Why should we have to go to class if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain’t come to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS.”

        Yeah, those guys should have to actually pay for school but be able to use their likeness to sell merchandise. The top 5% might be able to afford $200k in education and room & board but the other 95% will drop out of school. Organize? Really?

  24. not a bad list of prospects. as some others have mentioned what stands out most to me is Baalke drafting an undersized Corner with average speed in the first round. I’m not as familiar with O’Neil’s defense. I don’t think it will vary too far from what the Niners have run over the past 5 years. But is there anything about O’Neil’s defense that leads you to believe Alexander is good fit (good enough to overlook his physical deficits) for the defense?

    1. I also think Grant has it slightly wrong. If they draft Alexander, he may start opposite Brock, but more accurately I think he would replace Brock playing primarily on the left side of the field (though in time they may move him around to shadow the opponents top WR). Brock may win the RCB spot, but it would be a competition between him, Johnson, Acker and Reaser which I think Johnson would win.

  25. Trade 37+68 into late teens
    18 ish – Lee
    20 – Billings
    57 – Garnett or Kaufusi or BPA of your choice

    If Lee was taken before 18, take Billings at 20. Garnet and Kaufusi with the two 2nd rounders.

    1. Brodie two guys I absolutely love but try not to dote on because they probably won’t end up 9ers,and one of them is Billings .

      1. Yup. Lee could very well go above 15. Billings earlier than people think too. I doubt they will end up 49ers.

        I only do the Lee-Billings combo in my trade-back scenarios. Lee resolves a key defensive need. Billings is simply a special “3-down” NT that can pressure. I’d be hard pressed to decide between them.

  26. There’s a saying you can never have too many good CB’s…and there’s some truth to that. However, the stronger your front 7 is, the less pressure there is on your secondary. So, if I’m running the Niners draft, I’d make darn sure both the OL and DL are as strong as I can make them. Both groups were pillars of strength during Harbaugh’s years…and they’ve been degraded by FA, injuries, retirements, etc. Baalke has to re-strengthen both groups for Kelly’s team to have success. That said, Buckner’s the best DL in this draft…if I’m Baalke I try my darndest to get him. It’s very likely Dial will play NT until Ian Williams is fully healed. IMHO, Buckner has vastly more potential to be the stud DT/DE we need on the DL. Baalke also needs to get some top notch OL to compete for starting positions and create quality depth. Just as the DL is crucial to the entire defense, so is the OL to the skill players on offense. So, I’m thinking Baalke’s draft strategy is to strengthen both lines, then add pieces to compliment them. That’s a recipe for success.

  27. Here is my latest mock. Like Grant, I wish to trade back, but I hope they do it 2 times.
    I gave my reasoning in a previous post, so here it is without too much comment.
    Niners should trade back with the Bears. They should give up the 7th pick for the Bears first and third round picks. The Niners should then trade back to the Colts, Bills or Jets. They should give up the 11th pick for their first and second round picks. I will use the Jets numbers to simplify the numbers.
    Niners should also go all in with Kaep by trading the Niner starting QB Gabbert and a 4th round pick (105) to the Broncos for their second round pick (63) and a conditional 5th round pick next year.
    Therefor, the Niners will end up with the numbers 20, 37, 51, 63, 68, 72, 133, 142, 145, 174, 178, 207, 211 and 213. They will have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds and 14 overall picks. They could bundle picks to move up, but I will stay with these numbers to select from. I will use the Draftek 300 top prospects, and try to select from within 5 of each number.
    Round 1. Andrew Billings DT.
    Round 2. Jason Spriggs OL. Leonard Floyd OLB, Shilique Calhoun DE.
    Round 3. Braxton Miller WR, Nick Martin C.
    Round 4. Miles Killebrew ILB.
    Round 5. Nick Kwiatkowski ILB, CJ Prosise RB, Kevin Hogan QB.
    Round 6. Matt Judon DE, Keith Marshall RB, Dadi Nicolas OLB, Keivalrae Russell CB.
    The Niners would draft 2 OL, 2DE, 2 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 RB, 1 DT, 1 WR, 1 QB and 1 CB.

    1. The Broncos view Kaepernick as worth nothing more than a mid round pick, so why would they trade their second round pick for a fourth round pick and Gabbert?

      1. Gabbert is the starting QB with no baggage, Kaep is the benched second stringer who supposedly does not study and lost the locker room. Alex Smith garnered 2 second round picks.
        Niners would give up a 4th round pick with Gabbert. Denver would give up a 2016 second round pick and a conditional 5th round 2017 pick.
        Gabbert will also fit nicely under their salary cap and could be a bridge until the drafted QB gets up to speed.

        1. Seb, you’ve got to look at Gabbert’s history. He failed in Jacksonville. He got hurt, benched, replaced and traded. Nobody in the NFL wanted him. He heard and saw ghosts from all the hits he took. His confidence was shot when he came here. I don’t know what your point is but everyone who fails some place has baggage.

          He’s done something with his 2nd chance. Near the end of last season BG was hearing footsteps and some of his baggage was coming back. He threw too quickly to the check down. That’s his baggage.

        2. Also Gabbert has no playoff experience and that’s something coveted by the Broncos. BG’s never even had a winning season.

          1. Wilson, that is why I threw in a 4th round pick, since the Broncos do not have a 4th rounder and they might value one. I also threw in the 2017 conditional 5th because that would give the Niners insurance if they repeat.
            My feeling is that Gabbert has all the tools, but his supporting cast failed him in Jax and with the Niners. He WAS the starting QB at the end of the season, so he does have value, and he does have skills. He may not be as fast as Kaep, but he is close. Gabbert may also be more accurate with the short and intermediate passes. With that Denver defense supporting him, he might do a lot better. I also think that the Denver O line, WRs and RBs are superior to the Niners.
            I concede that Kaep is more experienced, but he did regress, while Gabbert did win 3 games last season. Maybe Kubiak and Elway will be content to get Gabbert if the Kaep deal falls through. I think Gabbert is an upgrade from Mr Buttfumbler and way better than any non elite rookie QB.

            1. Not sure Gabbert is an upgrade to Sanchez either. He’s been to AFCCG’s. I don’t think BG has all the tools and I am not sure the Bronco’s have any real interest in him. Baalke and Chip like him, why would they trade him? I don’t think they’d go for that many draft picks for a guy with as little success as BG. It’s creative Seb.

              1. Considering the Broncos just won a SB with mediocre QB play, maybe they do not want or need elite talent, but would be content with basic competency. There is a reason why Sanchez lost his starting job and failed in Philly, too. They traded him away for a 7th round conditional pick, so he was considered a back up second stringer.
                They would only trade Gabbert if they went all in on Kaep. Maybe what they are saying is a pack of lies, but I thought they wanted Kaep to play for them. If they remove the only place for Kaep to go to, maybe he will be resigned to staying. Gabbert also fits well under the salary cap for Denver, so that could be a good reason for their acceptance in acquiring Gabbert.

              2. Bortles replaced BG and threw for 4400 yds with basically the same talent that BG had. I think this makes sense to you but not sure anyone else sees the potential in it. Why would they trade a cheap backup if they keep CK and they want to go with him as a starter. I think the Bronco’s will go with Glennon, McCown or a draft pick before BG.

              3. Sorry Wilson, but Bortles has benefited from all those good drafts with Jax picking in the top 5 for several years, so his team has some decent talent. Even with Bortles, they are still losing.

              4. Glennon will require a second round pick, if the rumors are true. Maybe the Niners would accept a third round pick for Gabbert, but that is why I also put in that 4th round pick to sweeten the deal.

              5. Seb you do realize that Jacksonville has been filled with high picks even before BG showed up. They’ve been a bottom dweller for a long time. They’ve picked in the top 10 since 2008 eight times. That’s four top ten picks before BG arrives.

                You should look at some of the picks they had. Shorts, Blackmon, Chris Harris, Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, Terrance Knigthen. Its not a good argument Seb. BG doesn’t have anything the Broncos are looking for and the 49ers don’t want to deal him.

              6. Wilson, Gabbert may be off the table because Kaep is leaving,, but both QBs are big and mobile. Bet Kubiak studied Gabbert when they had the joint practices.
                Gabbert is a starting QB unlike Sanchez and Glennon, and his salary would easily fit under their salary cap.

              7. I agree, Jax has been snake bit when it comes to their drafts. Last year’s number one went down even before training camp.

              8. Seb, there’s just your probably and that it. There’s not press or media even suggesting BG was reviewed by Kubiak. Zip, nada, nothing. The reports here when they had joint practices were that CK impressed and BG was awful. That’s it. Nobody but you and one other poster here things BG is trade bait. You’re guessing at what Kubiak’s thinking and doing. There’s nothing from any side on this idea.

              9. Wilson, it is just idle speculation during the off season. Of course, I think Kaep is gone, so any Gabbert trade is a moot point. It is just wishful thinking trying some way to keep Kaep as a Niner.
                Interesting. I never heard that Gabbert was awful. I just remember that the Denver pass rush was dominant.

              10. I can accept an honest assessment of idle speculation. 104.3 the Fan here in Denver has a PM radio show called the Drive with Big Al (played for the 49rs) and DMac. They reported several days in a row that BG was awful in practice. They made fun of him several times. The Broncos pass rush is dominant.

    2. I read this mock and then checked my calendar to see if it was 4/20 already. Guess Seb decided to celebrate it early.

  28. Finishing up my 5th day here in New Orleans. Great city, if you have the opportunity, take it. If anyone ever needs a restaurant recommendation let me know because we’ve hit just about all of them it feels like. :)

    Passed by the intersection today that Smith was shot at, what a tragedy.

    With these mock drafts Grant has been coming up with it’s time to put one out so he knows what a real one looks like.

  29. I think trading back is a real possibility for Baalke. He will have many reasons for doing so, some of them good. But the real reason is that he does not have the stones to pull the trigger on a qb with the seventh pick.

    1. My sense is that the only way that Baalke picks a QB early is if Chip says: Hey, I really, really want that guy. Then if the pick fails, he can put the blame on someone else. But Chip has put himself on probation as far as personnel decisions are concerned so that won’t happen. Chip will put in his $.02 but I don’t believe he will push hard for anyone for a while.

  30. Hmm, now a mock has Ramsey going 7th to the Niners. If that is the case, they should definitely trade back, maybe make a deal with the Raiders.

    1. Matt Maiocco ‏@MaioccoCSN · 2h2 hours ago

      Update: Panthers UFA guard Amini Silatolu (torn ACL in November) is visiting #49ers today and will undergo physical.

      ll24kCratezll ‏@24kCrates · 2h2 hours ago

      @MaioccoCSN coming off a torn ACL.. There’s no way Trent misses out!

      Jerry Melady ‏@jerrymelady · 1h1 hour ago

      @MaioccoCSN Enough with these ACL guys. Other GM’s no doubt laughing

      Sandi ‏@HammMom · 33m33 minutes ago

      @MaioccoCSN oh for gods sake!!

      1. Trent’s ACLers,

        It’s passed the laughing stage headed toward serious…Houston, we’ve got a problem.
        Is it possible to have one entire draft with all healthy players Trent?

    2. Thanks for posting that Prime. It’s a good read. Reviewing social media seems to be standard fare these days with employers and landlords actively engaging in it.

      I probably dislike the Seahawks more than anyone on this board, but that doesn’t mean I can’t respect what Carrol and Schneider have done.

  31. @timkawakami you heard anything on the rumours 49ers are shopping bethea and Davis?

    John Mafia
    ‏@johnmafia81
    @timkawakami For a team that said no more leaks, feels like there have been more leaks than ever this offseason.

    Vinnie Levine
    ‏@VinnieLevine29
    @timkawakami It’s embarrassing as a fan

    @timkawakami no mention of @warriors having less losses than @49ers?

    Tim Kawakami Verified account 
    ‏@timkawakami
    Tim Kawakami Retweeted John Mafia

    Not all reports are leaks, as I define them, but for 49ers mgmt, leaking is how they do business.

    Tim Kawakami added,

    1. Good interview and he’s had some success in this league, but Scottie had two lousy drafts to end his time here and the jury is out on what he does in Washington. Face looks a little red and puffy too. Maybe that was taken right after happy hour.

  32. Here’s something interesting regarding the 49ers wanting to trade for Josh Gordon some years back. On Rotoworld:

    “ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the trade offer the Browns rejected from the 49ers in 2013 for suspended WR Josh Gordon was Kendall Hunter and a second-round pick.

    It’s ancient history now, but notable nonetheless. The second-rounder has long been part of the Gordon mythology, but the Hunter report is new. In the end, it was probably worth rejecting for the Browns even considering Gordon’s subsequent troubles. Hunter is bouncing around the backend of rosters, while Gordon had one of the better receiving seasons in league history in 2013. “

  33. Hyde tweeted “Trust in God’s timing.” He made the same tweet during last year’s preseason when he had a leg injury in offseason camp.

    Could just be one of those cryptic tweets people make to get attention.

  34. Ok, here is my latest attempt at a mock draft.

    I still think Kaep will end up being traded, and in this mock I assume they get the Broncos 3rd rounder (94). I also assume Goff, Wentz, Tunsil, Ramsey, Jack and Bosa are gone by pick 7.

    49ers could take Buckner in this scenario, but I am starting to think a trade down would make some sense. Some people have suggested the Bears as a potential trade partner (moving up for Elliott), and I’ll go along with this. 7th pick gets the 49ers picks 11 and 72.

    1 (11). Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis. I can’t say I’d be a fan of this pick, but losing Kaep means they need a QB and Lynch’s skillset would be a pretty decent match with Kelly’s offense.

    2 (37). Shilique Calhoun, DE/OLB, Michigan State. If Emmanuel Ogbah, Noah Spence or Leonard Floyd are still available at this point then I expect the 49ers would take them ahead of Calhoun, but I think they will all be gone by this pick. Not to worry, Calhoun is a quality prospect in his own right. Kamalei Correa could also be an option.

    3 (68). Chris Jones, DT, Miss. State. Big, long and athletic DL then can play right across the DL. In a deep DT group he could easily fall to the 3rd round, and is great value here.

    3 (72 from Bears). Deion Jones, ILB, LSU. May not last this long, but if he is there he would be a nice pick up. Fast, instinctive player that can cover. And good on STs.

    3 (94 from Broncos). Eric Murray, CB, Minnesota. Physical CB with good athleticism. Just the type of CB Baalke likes. Baalke attended his pro day and a game this season.

    4 (105). Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia. Injuries have been an issue, but the talent is there. Similar athletically to Nelson Agholor.

    4 (133). Fahn Cooper, OT, Ole Miss. A bit of a project, but filled in admirably for Tunsil when required.

    5 (142). Tyler Ervin, RB, San Jose State. Fast and slippery RB would play the Sproles role.

    5 (145). Sean Davis, FS, Maryland. Versatile player that can hit and cover. Another DB in the mold Baalke likes.

    5 (174). Joe Dahl, OG, Washington State. Good agility and quickness, and knows how to seal off running lanes. Could be a good fit in Kelly’s offense.

    6 (178). Dadi Nicolas, DE/OLB, Virginia Tech. Long, quick edge player that needs to bulk up to be effective in the NFL.

    6 (207). De’Runnya Wilson, WR, Miss. State. Big WR in the mold of Riley Cooper.

    6 (211). Darion Griswold, TE, Arkansas State. Raw TE (and former QB) with good athleticism. Will be a work in progress.

    6 (213). Vernon Adams Jr, QB, Oregon. Even after taking Lynch the 49ers still need depth at QB. Adams’ size will impact his draft stock, but has some traits that could lead to a decent NFL career.

    1. I would say this mock also assumes the report about Baalke’s affinity for Cook is false. I know you’ve said as much but I have a hard time seeing them reach for Lynch at #11 if there is even a shred of truth about Baalke liking Cook.

        1. Assuming it’s true, I have a hard time imagining that Baalke would invest any time in a QB his head coach doesn’t like.

      1. If Cook is indeed the QB they like I wouldn’t be shocked if they took him at 11 instead of Lynch in this draft scenario. I don’t think they’d be willing to risk waiting until pick 37 for him. Could trade up into late first round, but still no guarantee he’d last that long.

    2. I also don’t want to sound like a negative Nelly. Thanks for taking the time and nice work on the picks. I’ve been struggling putting something together without knowing Kaepernicks fate.

      1. Thanks, I also had trouble putting a mock together. A lot of unknowns, and the 49ers are doing a decent job checking out a broad range of players to disguise intentions. Or it could just be a clear indication they have so many holes they can just go BPA and be taking guys they also need.

      1. Thanks, though personally I think the 2nd, 3rd and 4th picks are the best value.

        Jones could go 1st round, but a few good DTs are likely to fall. If he’s not available another good DT probably will be.

              1. I think Kyler Fackrell will be the best edge player available at 37, and Bronson Kaufusi will be the best defensive lineman available at 68.

              2. For that to happen there will be some quality players at other positions available (unless you rate those two players more highly than I do).

              3. Sorry, Grant, but I want the Niners to use their 37th pick for an O lineman. Fackrel is rated 95 on the CBS draft board, so he might fall to the 4th round. If he is there at 105, the Niners should grab him.

              4. Kelly drafted a right tackle with his first pick as Eagles head coach. I’m thinking he’ll do that again by trading down to 20 for Taylor Decker. Then, the Niners will take the best CB available at No. 37.

      2. Considering he’s one of the twenty-five invitees to attend the draft, I’d say the chances of him lasting until the second round are slim, and the chances he lasts until the third round are none, and none just left Chicago….

    3. Chris Jones would be an absolute steal at 68. There’s a chance he could “Kentwan”, but his skill set’s worth the risk.

    4. Scooter, even though we both have Calhoun, and Nicolas, I wish to give gentle criticism to your mock. It is well thought out, and presented with good insights, but if you wanted Lynch, maybe you should trade back again because he might last until the second round. In other words, I think you are reaching backwards. Still think Hogan is a good choice, but Lynch has the physical tools to succeed. I just worry about his knees.
      The other mild criticism, but totally understandable if Bam Davis returns, is the lack of selecting an offensive lineman early.
      All in all, a very nice mock. You fill lots of holes.

      1. I don’t think Lynch will make it out of the first round. After the 49ers both the Rams and Broncos will strongly consider a QB in round 1, as are the Jets if they can’t come to a deal with Fitzpatrick. And Baalke has never shown he is that much of a gambler in the first round when they need a player to fill a certain role. He’d rather reach than take the risk of missing out on the player. If the 49ers trade Kaep I would be very surprised if they don’t take a QB in round 1.

        As for OL, they appear to be far more focused on meeting with mid and low round prospects, so I am expecting them to wait before taking OL this year.

        1. Hmm, Lynch was rated 13th, 21st and 32nd on 3 different draft boards, so you may be correct about getting him at 11. However, he averages out to be the 22nd, so maybe a trade back to the Jets (20) could garner another pick while still getting Lynch.

              1. Based on my comment on Lynch in my mock it should be pretty clear I am basing this on what I think they may do, not what I want them to do. I would prefer they didn’t take Lynch, but if they trade Kaep I highly doubt they don’t take a QB in round 1, and if they miss out on Goff or Wentz at 7 then I think they will make sure they don’t miss out on Lynch or Cook.

              2. Scooter, with all their glaring holes on defense, I hope they go heavy on the defensive side in the early part of the draft, and select Cardale Jones or Kevin Hogan later. Just do not think this QB draft class has the next franchise QB like a Luck, Manning or Newton.
                Still am praying that Kaep stays.

    5. Not a fan of Lynch’s either but given the scenario makes sense Scooter -well thought mock-I had Mitchell,Dahl and V Adams( late) as well.( I must add Chris Jones makes me edgy he has great talent but effort wanes -if he is coming to this team he better pack his lunch). Nice work Scooter.

      1. Thanks hightop!

        With Jones, I figure if they spent a lot of time looking at Vernon Butler, then they would have to love Jones.

    6. Hell of an effort Scooter. Like you, I wouldn’t be thrilled with Lynch that high, but there is definitely the possibility it could happen.

      I love your 2-4 round picks. If they came away with that I’d be very excited. I also like Davis in the 5th. He’s a kid who is just scratching the surface and will likely become a better pro than College player imo, although with his style will likely draw a number of UR penalties. He is really run to watch.

      Nice job.

      1. Thanks rocket. Not sure they would take Lynch, but if they trade Kaep I don’t see them leaving round 1 without a replacement, whoever it may be.

    7. I’ve only seen Ervin, Dahl, Adams and Lynch in game situations, and so feel qualified to comment only on them. I like the Ervin and Adams picks. Dahl didn’t quite stand out to me in game situation but he could be a good one. For me, Lynch shows many of the tendencies of college QBs “most likely to fail in NFL”. Also, I’m admittedly biased, but I’d take Kyle Murphy over Cooper in the 4th round if he’s available.

      1. I agree on Lynch. He makes me very nervous. I actually rate him much lower than a first rounder. But I do think his skillset is a pretty good match for Kelly’s offense, so if any team is going to value him a first rounder it’ll likely be the 49ers.

        1. I question Lynch’s decision making and his lack of sangfroid.

          But then I also question how Trump can get so much broad support, or how we Californians can support agriculture in the Central Valley.

    8. Scooter

      I like your mock….my biggest question would be Griswold TE from Arkansas State when we have Celek, Bell’dozer’, and ‘Busta’ Anderson, and MacDonald already at TE on the roster….I’d like to see just what we have in them besides warm bodies….

  35. I guess the rumors that the 49ers were trying to trade for Gordon were true. In hindsight clearly it would have been a mistake but it would have made me very happy at the time. Such a wasted talent. Million dollar body with a ten cent head.

  36. Here are the top 20 players on my 49ers big board:

    1. Myles Jack, ILB, UCLA
    2. Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
    3. Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
    4. Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
    5. Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
    6. Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
    7. Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
    8. Shaq Lawson, EDGE, Clemson
    9. Darron Lee, ILB, Ohio State
    10. DeForest Buckner, DT, Oregon
    11. Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
    12. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
    13. Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
    14. Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State
    15. Jared Goff, QB, Cal
    16. Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
    17. William Jackson III, CB, Houston
    18. Leonard Floyd, EDGE, Georgia
    19. Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
    20. Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama

    I’m dropping Mackensie Alexander to No. 32.

    1. Grant, I really like that you come to your own conclusions.

      I’m not posting full mocks and big boards. I’m focusing on a handful of draft crushes.

      Many names of great players are omitted because I don’t want to rank players I haven’t studied.

      This is a ranking of who I’d like to see in a 49er uniform relative to how much they can help the team. Its not who has the most talent. Just the guys on my radar. A listing of favorites.

      1-Goff
      2-Tunsil, Ramsey, Jack
      3-Buckner (on a 3-4), Bosa (on a 4-3)
      4-Lee
      5-Billings
      6-Chris Jones
      7-Stanley, Wentz
      8-Garnett, Kaufusi

      Darius Jackson (later rounds)

  37. Here are Kelly’s thoughts on evaluating two positions in specific:

    Quarterback mental makeup: “First and foremost, they’ve got to be a great decision-maker. That’s the most critical factor in everything the quarterback does. The ones who do that the best all come in different shapes and sizes. You can look at Russell Wilson or Tom Brady, and one’s 5-foot-10 and the other is 6-foot-5. But they’re both still outstanding decision-makers. They don’t put the ball in harm’s way. Sometimes you see a guy who can throw the ball and he can run, but what kind of decisions does he make when the game is on the line?”

    Quarterback measurements: “You better have big hands. Russell Wilson is 5-foot-10, but he has got 10 1/4-inch hands. You better have a big paw to manipulate the football. It’s not an end all, but if you look at it from a purely analytical standpoint, the guys who are most successful at quarterback have bigger hands.”

    Offensive line measurements: “Size is important, obviously. It’s a big person’s league. Joe (Staley) is prototypical in what you want; he’s got that athleticism. You’ve also got to bend and be physical, but I think it takes an athletic offensive line. You’re looking for that combination. There’s not one that outweighs the other.”

    http://www.49ers.com/news/article-2/Chip-Kelly-Explains-Ideal-Draft-Qualities-for-Offensive-Linemen-Quarterbacks/303af277-e526-442e-9963-ce1539deaed7

  38. Would an offer of $20M for two years as a new clean contract, and Denver’s third round pick make all three parties happy? That would be over $24M in California tax dollars for Colin?

  39. Maybe I’m having pre-draft jitters, but I have a very good feeling going into this draft that Baalke will hit it out of the park.

    The more I look at all the possible players that we have a chance to pick, I get a sense that this draft presents one of the strongest list of players that I’ve seen in quit a while and that it would be close to impossible for Baalke to whiff on this one.

    There are many possibilities at QB, DE, OL, OLB/Egde, CB to choose from that could prove to help us right away.
    I see Baalke/Kelly going at least 4-5 draft picks that will be starters either day one or in the next couple of years.
    In other words, all Baalke has to do is become a game manager – the table is set, just don’t mess it up!

    1. AES, I really hope that Baalke does not have total control of the draft.
      Maybe it would better if all parties have a hand in the bucket.
      I really hope you meant you wanted Baalke to be a team manager, because I want Chip to be the game day manager.

  40. Speaking of drafts, for everyone that always gets on Balkee for his 2012 draft, go look at a different GM in Ted Thompson. I’m sure a big percentage of you like how he runs Green bay. Now look at his 2011 draft…. Aside from Randall Cobb, that draft was horrible. To go one further, look at the Ravens and the great Ozzie Newsom’s 2013 draft. Horrible. So before you criticize what Balkee does and said, when he said “the draft is a crap shoot” , he’s actually telling the truth. No GM is perfect. Rather you like him or not. But somewhere a bunch of fans will always criticize a gm.

    1. Steel,
      I agree with you, but we wouldn’t be fans if we viewed everything though rose colored lenses.
      Plus, this platform was basically created to allow us to give our views whether they are deemed positive or negative.

        1. AES..

          I understand that, I’ve always stated that. I’ve always said it’s our opinions. Wich makes them unique. No matter how ridiculous they sound(SEB)… Just kidding seb.. That’s also what makes us all come back. Even though some people won’t admit it, they actually like reading other posters opinions

      1. AES

        I think what Steel is saying is that as ‘fans’ we already ARE looking through rose colored glasses….let’s just not rub mud on the rose color…:p

    2. It’s not just the 2012 draft Steelematic. It’s the fact he has done a poor job of building a foundation of core talent. Every team misses on players, but Baalke has shown a glaring inability to draft players on the offensive side of the ball and even a number of the defensive players he has drafted have not panned out in comparison to where they were drafted.

      You can’t look at where this team is and not fault Baalke for doing a poor overall job in the draft imo.

  41. We’re going to see a draft day trade involving Anthony Davis. I wonder if he could be part of a big trade to move up?

    1. Coffee ..

      Knowing how much Baalke covets draft picks ..
      moving up from #7 .. would require giving up
      some draft capital …
      It doesn’t seem that this is part of Baalke’s DNA ..

      Who are you thinkin’ .. we move up for ?

      1. I think the would move up for either Tunsil or a QB. I don’t believe they would make a move like that for a defensive player with the team they have.

          1. MWN,
            And if we draft Braxton Miller imagine the possibilities.
            Now if we can just convince Kap to put on 20 lbs and play TE – Jk ; )

            1. No, no, they should just install a constant flea flicker, and let Miller heave it down field to let Kaep out jump the safeties for the ball. ;p

              1. Hey, if Harbaugh could tweak the running game by using Tukuofu in the backfield, who’s to say Kelly can’t tweak the passing game just a little, right?

                I know that I’m just musing here, but in all seriousness, I can’t wait to see what Kelly can do with our offense this season.

              2. AES, Hiring Chip has given me hope. He cannot be anything but an improvement because the Niner offense sucked last year. Hope he can pull a rabbit out of his hat.
                Hmm, LMJ is available….

        1. That would be a stupid trade. Trading a quality R tackle and a talented QB for essentially a 4th rnd pick. I said this in the beginning, niners will not trade Kaep. He will compete will Gabbert for the job. Davis could be traded but from his tweet it suggests that Balke already had a discussion with him about the reports being false..

        2. CFC,
          I like Elway, but I don’t like him enough to give him two players for a #94. Although I’m somewhat numb to the whole CK and Davis saga, this would not be good business on our part.

          1. At this point AES I peg Davis’s value to the 49ers as very low. If Davis had any passion or interest in not just returning but returning to the 49ers we wouldn’t still be asking ourselves “when is he going to fill out those papers?”

            Anyone that trades for Davis is more then aware of his attitude and maturity level plus they’re taking a big chance that he’ll be able to play at a high level again so he doesn’t really have that much value to most others teams at this point either. Maybe #94 is too low and throwing in Davis is how they actually get the Donkey’s second rounder instead but at this point if they could off load two players that have no apparent desire to play on the team for anything higher then a 4th I’d call that a win for us.

    2. Davis may not even play. I think he’s just screwing around right now with Twitter and may not have any intention of returning. Even if he did return, he would be most valuable to the Niners simply because he isn’t going to fetch much in trade with the fact he took a year off and is making pretty good money on his deal. The Niners don’t have nearly enough talent on the Oline to be trading away Davis for a can of beans imo.

      1. I have to disagree with you to some extent rocket. t’s a very complicated deal rocket.

        Think about all of the specifics and details involved in reinstating a player of his “value”. And how do you even really asses his “value”? Certainly he’s not worth nearly as much now that he has walked away from the team. And he’s probably a poor fit for Kelly’s offense, right?

        In all honesty, I think Davis probably has more value on another team. Davis could use a fresh start on a team who runs a power scheme, and needs to add depth at the RT position. I think, you take whatever you can get, IF, you can determine his value, and work out all of the fine details. And that’s easier said than done!

        1. I’m not saying you’re wrong rocket. Like I say, it’s complicated.

          Let me ask you this rocket:

          If you were Coach Kelly, would you want a guy on your roster who walked away from his team, is very active on social media and isn’t afraid to put anything out there on social media, good or bad, and really doesn’t fit your blocking scheme?

          1. I think he does fit the blocking scheme. He’s athletic and a very strong blocker at the point of attack He’s by far the best option compared to the other players on the depth chart imo. I think Kelly wants the best players he can find, and I don’t see anything Davis has done to give Kelly pause about him fitting his system or the roster in general. This is nothing new for Davis. He’s been this way for years and really doesn’t say anything overly controversial, so you accept it and plug him in.

            I also can’t see anyone holding walking away from football for a year against him. He walked away because he was concerned about his health and everyone should respect that. I’m not convinced he wants to play anymore or truly wants to come back, but if he does, he has far more value to this team on the field than he does in trade. He’s never been a locker room problem that you absolutely need to get rid of and you aren’t going to get much for him so why trade him?

            1. I’m not so sure about that rocket.

              For starters, AD has always struggled a bit with conditioning, which makes you wonder how well he’ll handle the breakneck tempo. Knowing his past history, he’s probably a long, long way away from being in game shape.

              As for scheme fit? I think he’s probably best suited for the type of blocking scheme he was drafted for. Yes, he’s pretty athletic for a guy his size, but he’s hardly nimble.

              The 49ers are very high on big Trent Brown. They feel like he was an absolute steal, and he makes Davis much more expendable. I don’t know if you caught Staley’s comments today, but he pretty much said the starting RT job is Trent Brown’s to lose. And I believe that.

          2. 49reasons and Rocket

            It’s a very strange irony we have; two former starters, one who walked away from his team in retirement, back-talks his team-mates, coaches, and FO and waits until after the draft to announce his ‘retirement’…his unretirement (which to this point is a mystery, missed all team activities and probably is at least 6 monthes away from game ‘shape’.

            The other who has let his game regress from it’s peak, gets benched, gets an attitude,claims injury (after being benched) has his agents ask for permission to seek trade to other teams, publicly claims that he no longer wants to play for the team who holds his rights, wants a trade to the NFL champions, apparently wants to write his own paychecks when they don’t agree with his value. Is that about it ?

            I’m sorry, but those are two ‘players’ that I don’t want in my locker room, practice field or anything to do with the 49ers. I’d trade both of them to Denver as mentioned by C4C. Get pick #94 and next years second rounder, throw them a Bon Voyage party and read about them in the Denver Post.

              1. “… claims injury …”

                You’re better than that. It’s petty.

                Grant to your bosses:

                Not having an edit function is also petty, and it’s cheap.

            1. Oregon,

              We don’t know what kind of shape Davis is in. We also don’t know when he decided to walk away. We know when he officially announced it, but we don’t know how long he contemplated it or how much he wrestled with the decision. We do know he was injured a lot in 2014 and had a concussion late in the season after coming back that scared him enough to rethink his future. The timing of it was unfortunate, but It’s really no different than if Davis had gone down with a season ending injury in OTA’s. It’s up to Baalke to have a backup plan and he really didn’t have a good one. You can criticize as you like to do, but you don’t know much about what is going on and neither does anyone else. At the end of the day Davis is a very good RT, and far superior to anyone else the Niners have on the roster. If he wants to play, you make it work.

              I have long since given up on you ever having a rational view on Kap and you really don’t know the details or just don’t care. He didn’t claim injury, he had a torn rotator cuff and two other injuries that also needed surgery. This is one of the reasons why Kap doesn’t trust the team right now because the team doctors didn’t diagnose it or pay enough attention to it whatever the case may be. He also has never publicly claimed anything . That is pure fiction on your behalf. Rumors have spread regarding his situation, but Kap has never said a thing. Kap wants to play for the contract he signed. That’s it. Nothing wrong with that and nobody in their right mind would give up almost half their salary to go and risk their body somewhere else. He’s doing what any other player in his situation would.

              I know you’d trade both players, you’d also go with Gabbert and Dylan Thompson as the QB’s even though neither has shown even a flash of what Kaepernick has. I don’t trust your judgement. It’s biased, personal, and not in the best interests of this teams fortunes. You aren’t getting a 2nd and 3rd rounder either. You’d be getting late round picks for both at best which is why you don’t trade them.

              1. Rocket

                “we don’t know what shape AD is in .”..I think that we can make an educated guess that he is not in the shape of the rest of the team who played out the whole season along with constant training in their facility which should tell you that he is ‘out of shape from the team’. At the end of the day he WAS a good RT who might be prone to quit on the team again and if that doesn’t concern you, then this is only fodder for you to argue.

                Kaep didn’t have a rotater cuff, he had a torn meniscus in his knee, a tear in his non-throwing shoulder, and ligament damage in his thumb. Of course he didn’t disclose any of it until after he was benched.

                As much as you profess to be a niner fan, I am somewhat amazed at your refusal to consider that Kaep and AD were very good players, two or three years ago, but since then, their performance has slipped to where they aren’t that good now. Last season Kaep won 2 games….Gabbert won 3.

                I am not surprised that you don’t trust my judgement…I don’t trust yours either. You’re concerned about the draft choices I would receive for these players…you may be right…I just want them out of the roster and the toxicicity to go also.

              2. Oregon,

                The point is you are guessing. You make a habit of basing opinions on your guesses or beliefs based on speculation. The truth is neither you nor I, nor anybody else on here, knows the story behind Davis’ retirement, what he’s been up to since, what kind of shape he’s in and whether he wants to play or not. You just predictably jump to a negative view of the player just like you did with Kap the moment he was named the starter over your BFF Alex Smith.

                I mistakenly said rotator cuff. It’s actually the Labrum he had a tear in but It’s all shoulder related and is definitely an injury which you questioned with your reference to “he claimed injury.” He had multiple injuries in fact. They weren’t disclosed until he went to get checked out in Colorado. Why would they be disclosed before he actually got checked out? That makes no sense.

                As to how the two players have performed, I was pretty vocal with my criticism of Kap last year. He played poorly far too often and was weak mentally to the point of losing his confidence. Not sure what else you want me to say. I didn’t jump on the Kap sucks train when you and few others were criticizing the guy even when he was winning, but I don’t sugar coat analysis of anybody, and last year he was awful far too many times. Gabbert put up better numbers but really didn’t get them any further than Kap did. He benefited from the Bears Kicker missing two gimmes that would have ended the game in regulation. He also got worse as the season went on and lost 3 of his last 4 starts including a miserable game against Cleveland. There is also the little matter of him being awful for most of his NFL career so far but I digress. Yet through all of this, somehow you are encouraged by the prospect of him and some other kid who was undrafted and has never taken a meaningful snap at the NFL level making up the QB depth on this team. It makes no sense Oregon.

                In the case of Davis, he missed a number of games his last year, but when he did play, the offense performed much better especially in the run game. His performance didn’t slip. The guy was injured.

                You want players off the team that you don’t like period. There have been no reports of toxicity around the team regarding either player right now and there is no reason to get rid of them just for the sake of getting rid of them.

            2. OREGON,
              Can’t make a deal based on emotions – that is bad business.
              I WOULD listen if a 2nd pick in 2017 is included in the deal, but unloading two players for a 4th rd pick is gift wrapping this to Denver.

    1. Cause he is garbage. Can’t even fetch a 7th for that guy. He was awful last year when Mariota got hurt.

  42. Draft strategy- I think the Niners should trade back and get as many picks as they can in the first 3 rounds. Like Scooter and his trade back with Chicago and B2W with his bundling picks to move up. I hope they bundle players they do not think will fit into the Chip Kelly scheme, and garner a second round pick for them.
    The reason? 98 juniors are in the draft, and 49 made the top 100 in this draft. With 50 or so seniors, that makes around 100 good prospects. Some pundits say that there are only 17 or so elite players, but also say that there is good starting quality still up to 45 or 55, and one even said that the first 3 rounds are filled with starter material.

  43. For all I love about the NFL and this niner team, I can honestly say there is no way I could do a 7 round mock. Don’t know much about the college players outside of the top heavy guys.. So I just go with 1 round niner mocks. I’m not advanced in the college game. I know it, but not like I used to.

    1. I respect your football acumen. I just look at the mock database, get an idea who they like, then go off a draft board trying to match players ranked within 5 places of the Niner draft position. A lot of the 5th and 6th round picks are just random shots in the dark, so your guess is as good as any other, maybe even better than Grant’s.

      1. I’ve posted this elsewhere, but if you want to “play” General Manager for a mock draft, use http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/premium.php. It allows you to draft for any team, and the computer simulates the picks for every other team. You can use one of any number of draft boards (I usually go with CBS’ draft board, or whatever is most up to date). For $6, you can also do a draft with trades, both proposing trades and having the computer propose trades to you (using the draft pick score sheet as to approval or rejection of trade offers). Lots of fun, and I’ve definitely gotten my $6 worth.

  44. For example, using the CBS Draft Board, and trading back twice in the 2nd round to pick up an extra 4th rounder the first time and an extra 3rd rounder the second time (I had offers to trade back in the 1st round, but didn’t), I came up with the following mock draft:

    7: R1P7
    DE DEFOREST BUCKNER
    OREGON
    57: R2P26
    G JOSHUA GARNETT
    STANFORD
    68: R3P5
    OLB KAMALEI CORREA
    BOISE STATE
    88: R3P25
    CB CYRUS JONES
    ALABAMA
    105: R4P7
    TE NICK VANNETT
    OHIO STATE
    107: R4P9
    RB PAUL PERKINS
    UCLA
    133: R4P35
    WR CHARONE PEAKE
    CLEMSON
    142: R5P3
    DT D.J. READER
    CLEMSON
    145: R5P6
    QB JACOBY BRISSETT
    NC STATE
    174: R5P35
    ILB NICK KWIATKOSKI
    WEST VIRGINIA
    178: R6P3
    OT CALEB BENENOCH
    UCLA
    207: R6P32
    QB KEVIN HOGAN
    STANFORD
    211: R6P36
    OT AVERY YOUNG
    AUBURN
    213: R6P38
    OLB VICTOR OCHI
    STONY BROOK

    The only reason I was able to get who I wanted is because CBS for some reason ranks Caleb Benenoch and Nick Kwiatkoski much lower than other boards (I’ve seen Benenoch going 3rd-4th round in other mocks, and Kwiatkoski as high as the 3rd round). But otherwise, I like my results (self-congratulatory remark aside, I welcome thoughts).

  45. Hey Grant, since you referenced PFF earlier, I thought I’d repay the favor. You have been arguing the JARRED GOFF is a poor fit for Chip Kelly’s offense, correct? Well………………

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/04/13/10-perfect-nfl-team-to-prospect-fits/

    If the 49ers do decide to use their top pick in the draft on a quarterback – either by staying put at the No. 7 spot or by moving up – which of the two prospects, Wentz or Goff, would be the best fit?

    According to the analytics website Pro Football Focus, it’s Goff, the former Cal standout.
    Though a recent poll of NFL executives by NFL.com gave Wentz a slight edge over Goff as a pro prospect, Pro Football Focus’ Jeff Dooley wrote Wednesday that Goff is one of “10 perfect NFL team-to-prospect fits,” with the 49ers. Dooley wrote that the possibility of Goff playing for new head coach Chip Kelly “is particularly intriguing.” Dooley believes that the skill set and experience of Goff is particularly suited to running Kelly’s fast-paced spread offense. “Kelly earned a winning record in Philadelphia in part due to his ability to elevate a mediocre group of quarterbacks,” wrote Dooley. “Sam Bradford was PFF’s No. 11 QB in 2015, earning the highest grade of his career. A year before Mark Sanchez earned the second-highest grade of his career and two years before Nick Foles posted his career-best grade. “Moreover, Goff’s experience in a play-action-heavy offense (37 percent of dropbacks last season were off of play-action, the seventh-highest rate in this draft class) meshes well with what Kelly has done in the NFL. If Goff lasts until the No. 7 pick, consider this a steal.” Goff, who is 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, isn’t a classic dual-threat running quarterback such as current 49er Colin Kaepernick. But he can move in the pocket and be an accurate passer (with some exceptions) – a trait Kelly says is the most important.
    In three seasons at Cal, Goff completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 12,195 yards and 96 touchdowns vs. just 30 interceptions. And, as NFL.com’s scouting report on Goff notes, the Golden Bear improved throughout his college career, especially in attacking defenses downfield. “Showed substantial growth with his willingness to attack intermediate areas of the field and did so with accuracy and relative success,” reads his scouting report. “Completed an impressive 43.8 percent of his deep throws. Competes on third-and-long, seeking out first downs over check-downs.”

    1. Kelly’s quarterbacks always get hurt. Goff’s size would be an issue. At 215 pounds, he isn’t elusive enough to escape the inevitable pounding he would take in Kelly’s offense. Getting picked by the Niners would be the worst-case scenario for Goff.

      1. There’s our boy digging in even further in the face of evidence to the contrary, instead of admitting the opinion was off base. Goff is the most elusive QB in the pocket in this draft by far. It’s one of his best traits in fact. He’s also only 21 years old and will add muscle to his frame in an NFL training program. You are entitled to your opinion Grant but you should get off the idea that Kelly needs a running threat at QB when he has clearly shown that is not important to him in the NFL. He’s gone to more and more of a passing offense and is looking for a QB who is accurate, with a quick release and ability to diagnose where to go with the ball quickly. That is Goff, although I doubt he is even there at #7.

        1. Goff would get injured quickly in Kelly’s offense. He’d be a sitting duck in the open field. Would be a nightmare scenario for him.

          1. I just don’t get your thinking on this Grant. Goff played in a system similar to what Kelly runs, including the zone read/read option whatever you choose to call it. You act like he’s never done this before and it’s simply not true. He’s a smart kid who doesn’t take hits if he doesn’t have to. He’s never missed a game in 3 years behind a crappy Oline and a system that has him throwing more than 40 times a game on average. He’s not a guy who wants to run, but he can and has for positive yardage, in fact averaging about 6 yards a carry.

            You give a lot of respect to PFF as do I, and they clearly stated he is a perfect fit for the offense Kelly runs. It’s time to admit you were wrong on this.

      2. Fair enough. It’s a valid point. But what about his skill set?

        If Jarred Goff had the exact same skill set he has now, but weighed 235 lbs, would you still feel the same way?

        1. This last question was directed at Grant.

          How about it Grant? Is it strictly Goff’s slight build that sways your opinion?

          1. Mainly his build, also his lack of experience running the primary run play in Kelly’s offense.

            Goff should go to a team that will protect him as much as possible. Kelly protects quarterbacks as little as possible. Horrible fit.

          1. It’s a fair point you make Grant. You simply don’t think Goff is big enough and strong enough to stay healthy running Chip’s offense.

            I think that, with practice, an athletic QB can learn to avoid a lot of those hits. He just needs to learn to take what the defense is giving him, and be content not going for that extra yard, even if it’s the 3rd down marker. He needs to be disciplined. I think Goff can be disciplined.

            1. Alex Smith is a good example of what you’re talking about. He’s about the same size as Goff. But Smith learned to run in college, not in the pros. Running always was part of Smith’s game. He didn’t have to add it to his arsenal in the NFL. That’s tough to do.

              1. Grant:

                How do you explain Sam Bradford making it through 14 games last year in Kelly’s offense? He missed weeks 11 and 12 and then came back to beat New England in week 13. He is 6’4″ and weighs 224 pounds.

                In an NFL program, it shouldn’t be a problem for Goff to add about 10 pounds.

              2. Niners are hoping that both those QBs go in the top 5.. It would guarantee them a very good Defensive prospect. They have zero interest in drafting one in Rnd 1.. That goes completely against Balkes history. Although they could very well move up for Conner Cook at the end of rnd 1..

              3. Colin Kaepernick 6’4 230+ Fast with a great arm. Already there. If he is so good with QBs and loves mobile QBs like Grant suggests there is no need for a QB early.

              4. Not really. Running is almost easier in the pros with designed running lanes schemed like a check down. Goff is very athletic and has size to endure hits. He will be fine.
                I see Kelly constructing an offense to his personnel. Everyone thinks he will run the same thing he did at Oregon and Philadelphia. I think he surprises a lot of people and makes it very much tailored to his personnel. He does get to shop for his groceries on offense in this draft.

              5. Prime,

                You’re right and Goff is more athletic than Foles or Bradford. Kelly changed his offense during his time in Philly so there is clear evidence that he is willing to adapt to what he has or what he needs to do in the NFL game. There’s also the fact he’s clearly stated that he hires people from different offensive systems so he can learn about them and incorporate elements of them into his offense. He is not afraid to change and evolve, and the OC he hired is clear evidence of that.

            2. Hmm: Let’s see, with the Rams in 2010 he played 16 games, then 10 in 2011, 16 in 2012, 7 in 2013, missed all of 2014 and now 14 in 2015. Statistically he has played a significantly higher percentage of games with the Eagles than with the Rams (albeit the sample size is smaller for the Eagles). Statistically speaking, there is no evidence that Kelly’s offense was detrimental to Bradford’s physical ability to play in football games for the Eagles.

          2. Grant

            I think that you should have stood your ground…I believe that Goff was only 200 pounds at the recent ‘Big Game’…when he decided to go pro, he began t put on weight ergo the 15 extra pounds. If Goff went up to 235 pounds, his elusiveness would be gone…it would be like sending a 200 pound QB out on the field with a 35 LB back pack…no contest…

              1. Weak Grant. Is there some grammar or spelling mistakes you’d like to correct too?

                Yards per play can be affected by a number of things which I listed on the other thread including: running out the clock, running the ball deep in the redzone when the other team expects it, running low percentage plays while trying to catch up and on and on and on. As I also said on the other thread, you want to view this in black and white and it’s impossible to do so. There are far too many elements that affect overall performance to try and pin it on one particular area like the amount of QB runs.

                There is a definite possibility that defenses have caught on to Kelly’s scheme, and he may struggle if he doesn’t adapt, but like I said that is a totally different topic. His scheme as it is now is perfect for Goff because he comes from a similar one at Cal.

              1. You’d be the only surprised person if Goff got injured running the zone-read in the NFL.

              2. Lots of players have gotten hurt running the zone read in the NFL. That is why Kelly had his QB’s running it less and less as time went on. It’s not something you want your QB doing very much at all no matter how good a runner he is. RGIII is a great example of that. Goff fits Kelly’s offense because Kelly has been morphing into more of a passing offense like Goff has been running at Cal. It’s less about QB runs and more about getting the ball where it needs to go quickly. You aren’t paying attention to what Kelly has been doing in the NFL, and are instead stuck in this old College view of what Kelly wants.

              3. I am paying attention to what Kelly has been doing in the NFL. He has been getting worse and worse as time goes by.

              4. His offense did go down substantially this year no doubt about it, but that is often what happens when you dump a number of your best players. There is also no guarantee that Kelly’s system will continue to work effectively in the NFL, but that is a whole other topic.

              5. 6.3 yards per play in 2013. 5.6 yards per play in 2014. 5.3 yards per play in 2015. The arrow has been pointing down since Year 1.

              6. Yep we’ve already gone through this, and even though there was a drop per play from year one to year two, there wasn’t much of a drop in total yardage and they scored more points in year two than year one. The significant drop came this past year and as I said, it has as much or more to do with the players he got rid of than anything else.

              7. The biggest drop in offensive efficiency occured between Years 1 and 2. Points scored is skewed by field position and special teams/defensive touchdowns, and total yardage is skewed by pace.

              8. Yards per play are also skewed by those same things and other factors Grant. We’ve already been through this on the other thread and I really don’t feel like playing it out again. What is very clear is there was a significant drop in total yards and points scored last season. There is a 3 year trend of yards per play dropping, but the bottom fell out last year with the Oline problems and the playmakers they let go.

              9. Weak Grant. Is there some grammar or spelling mistakes you’d like to correct too?

                Yards per play can be affected by a number of things which I listed on the other thread including: running out the clock, running the ball deep in the redzone when the other team expects it, running low percentage plays while trying to catch up and on and on and on. As I also said on the other thread, you want to view this in black and white and it’s impossible to do so. There are far too many elements that affect overall performance to try and pin it on one particular area like the amount of QB runs.

                There is a definite possibility that defenses have caught on to Kelly’s scheme, and he may struggle if he doesn’t adapt, but like I said that is a totally different topic. His scheme as it is now is perfect for Goff because he comes from a similar one at Cal.

              10. A .7 drop in yards per play from one season to the next is gargantuan. You’re trying to make it seem like a statistical fluke, which is precious.

            1. Oregon, are your expectations of Kelly’s offense the same as the expectations we had when he was at Oregon? Myself, I have very high expectations nothing changes for me.

              1. undercenter

                Yes, my friend they are the same. There are about a half dozen on here who just don’t have enough to worry about…I’ve explained until I’m blue in the face that they should worry about taxes, nucleur holocast, pygmy invasions, and the standard ‘sky is falling’ but they insist on thinking that Fangio, and all of the other DC’s have “figured out” Kellys secret plan, and will destroy us probably before the first exhibition game. What they continue to miss, is that Chip’s offensive changes with the wind and he is smart enough and flexible enough to go with the flow.

  46. I know this subject has been exhausted on this blog but if I may.

    I do agree that it’s necessary for Chip’s QB to be viewed, and played as a legitimate threat to run the football out of Kelly’s zone-read concepts. We know that the foundation of Kelly’s run game — or perhaps more accurately, his entire offense — is the inside zone. “The inside zone play is his ‘go-to-work’, signature play.

    And, Kelly relies on numbers for his zone reads to work effectively. Because of the spread formations Kelly deploys, there are rarely more than six defenders in the box to defend against the run (or seven if he opts to keep a tight end inline). And, if the defense is a six-man box, the quarterback is responsible for the sixth man. He reads the defender and controls him. He makes the defender respect him as a runner and keeps him out of the play.

    The zone read as Kelly runs it is not a tactic to create rushing opportunities for his quarterback. Rather, it’s an extension of the blocking scheme that flips the numbers advantage in the box from the defense to the offense. As Kelly explained to his clinic audience, “We want the ball in the running back’s hands. We do not want the quarterback carrying the ball. The option can put the ball in his hands, but the defense can force it out of his hands. We want the quarterback to give the ball unless he cannot.”

    And I agree with rocket that JARRED GOFF is more than capable of controlling the “6th man” with his athleticism. He’s quick enough, fast enough, and a natural enough runner. He’s also able to make the quick decisions to slide, get out of bounds, etc, in order to run the zone-reads effectively, IMO.

    1. Thanks, rocket. Nice post. Regarding the draftable QBs, have you looked at Brandon Allen? A couple of guys here mentioned him yesterday and I took at his evaluations and also his highlights on youtube. Most draftniks write him off as an NFL backup, but I really wonder if he couldn’t be a lot more. He reminds me of Drew Brees. He plays super quickly — drop backs, rollouts, decision making, and releasing the ball. CBS projects him as a 6th round pick. Below is the analysis from nfl.com:

      STRENGTHS Showed substantial growth as field leader and play­maker. Comfortable under center and is effective on bootlegs and rollouts. Completion percentage jumped from 56 percent in 2014 to 66 percent this year. Outstanding 64 percent rate on intermediate throws. Good catch­-and­-run ball placement on crossing routes. Sneaky arm talent. Able to pump fake, re­set and throw with accuracy. Swift setup in the pocket with a prompt release. Gets ball out in rhythm in rollouts. Rotates hips through throws for quality velocity. Arm to make NFL throws and has drive velocity and accuracy to challenge tight windows in middle of the field. Able to extend plays outside the pocket and find a throw or scramble for first downs. Doubled completions of 20-plus yards from 24 (2014) to 48 this year.
      WEAKNESSES Smallish frame takes hard hits when he runs. Benefited from play-­action based passing attack. Just over 40 percent of his dropbacks were out of play­-action. Rarely looks to take deep shots down the sideline against man coverage. Not asked to get through very many progressions and brings safeties to his throws by staring down his targets. Could make life easier by moving safeties around with his eyes. When pocket heats up, he will drop eyes and look to bolt.
      BOTTOM LINE Allen was an afterthought headed into this season but garnered draft attention with high­-end production and a substantial spike in his play. On one hand, he is smaller than teams usually like and operated out of a play-­action offense that didn’t ask him to get through many progressions. On the other hand, Allen has a quick release, an NFL arm, solid accuracy and good mobility. Allen needs to find the right home and eliminate his tendency to stare down targets, but he has enough talent to become an NFL backup.

      1. Thanks George and I have looked at Allen extensively. You have to be careful when looking at those highlight reels because you often see a bunch of good plays spooled together and not a true indication of the overall game of the player. Allen has some good attributes and appears to be a tough kid, but he has so much going against him in terms of height, hand size and his rawness as a prospect that the backup forecast is probably the best case scenario. Anything can happen, but there is such a huge step up in the level of play that a lot of these guys just can’t make the jump.

        1. rocket, we’ve got to find a way to get Grant to understand that statistics should not be used as a basis for an argument, but rather a tool to help support an argument.

          There are so many different things that that can skew statistics.

          I have a story I’d like to tell you rocket. It’s titled:

          “Throwing Darts – the Grant Cohn story”

          It’s a story about a college football team, a young, up and coming football executive, and the NFL draft. This unnamed college football team has two senior running backs who share carries throughout the course of a full season. One of the RB’s, (we’ll call him “21reasons”), despite being 5 lbs lighter, is clearly better than the other. He reminds a lot of people of a young Frank Gore. This RB just has a knack, and gains a full yard more than the other back, nearly every single time he carries the football. Even though one of the backs is clearly more gifted, the head coach insists on splitting their carries exactly 50%-50%. During the final game of a long, grueling season, and with the NFL draft quickly approaching, the less talented RB (we’ll call him “The Dude”) receives the handoff on his own 1 yard line, and on the play, both opposing inside linebackers collide with one another, allowing for the less talented RB to break a 99 yard touchdown run. It’s the longest run from scrimmage in team history. Thanks to the one, long, 99 yard TD run, the two RB’s end the season with identical statistics.

          Draft day is upon him and with the number 7 pick, GRANT COHN, Team President, all-around lady’s man, and Director of Player Personnel for a unnamed NFL team, uses his trust-worthy, talent evaluation process ( using statics only) and drafts “The Dude” (based on the fact that the two running backs’ have identical statistics, yet “The Dude” is a full 5 pounds heavier) than the other) and passes on “21reasons”.

          “21reason” goes on to have a Hall Of Fame career, and carries his team to 5 consecutive World Championships while Grant Cohn goes on to live out the remainder of his life in solitude, always wondering “what if?”

          What if Grant had listened to rocket, Prime Time, & 49reasons?

  47. Dominique Easly released by the Pats. I’d claim him on waivers and bring him in. Lot of upside albeit with injury concerns.

      1. Easley tore both his ACLs in college. He is platinum level in the ACL Club. The biggest issue with Easley is that he was used as an interior rusher with the Patriots; at 284 pounds, he’s a little small for the Niners scheme. Plus, aren’t we using Tank Carradine for the interior pass rusher at 290 pounds who only plays 20 snaps a game?

        1. Pot…kettle

          Very6 good point…I really want to see Tank get some meaningful snaps this year, let’s see what we have….

    1. Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer 3m3 minutes ago
      Was told ex-Patriots DL Dominique Easley is healthy. New England cut him with guaranteed money left, effectively paying him to go away.

      1. I’m curious to know why he was cut. Must be some pretty serious off field stuff, because he’s been good when healthy. He was one of the guys I was very high on in the 2014 draft.

        1. Yeah I’m waiting to see a Shawn Oakman type story come out about Easly. That would explain it. If there is no smoke however I would claim him. I was high on him in that draft too.

  48. First Premise:

    Kelly gets QBs injured at a higher rate that the rest of the NFL coaches.

    First Question:

    To present respectable competition in sixteen games, how many QBs should Kelly have on his roster?

    Second Question:

    Is the last pick in the 2016 third round or less worth giving up a sturdy QB with any chance at all of being serviceable in Kelly’s offense?

    Third Question:

    Would two such QBs have any value toward being a respectable opponent for sixteen games in 2016?

    1. Report: Eagles ‘Enamored’ With Kevin Hogan, Vernon Hargreaves
      April 13, 2016 8:10 AM By Andrew Porter

      The Eagles have been doing their due-diligence on quarterbacks heading into this year’s draft, hosting and working out the top prospects like Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Paxton Lynch.

      Apparently, however, the Eagles may hold off on a drafting a quarterback on day one and take CBSSports.com’s 10th ranked QB Kevin Hogan late

      “They were very enamored with Hogan, the quarterback out of Stanford in the later or mid-rounds,” said NFL reporter Ben Allbright on the 94WIP
      “And then Vernon Hargreaves, the corner, the defensive back there,” Allbright said. “They’re really enamored with him and a worst case scenario is that he falls in their lap at [number] eight [overall] as well,

      1. Philly coach, Doug Pederson is a WCO guy, which explains that at every stop, whether it’s Jay Gruden noticing that Kirk Cousins was better than RG III or Kyle Shannahan benching him, the WCO guys simply develop QB’s and draft them better than the 49ers (Mike Shannahan drafted Cousins).

        Lets hope the 49ers get this one right

    1. If they make that trade it is to draft a QB, and I see it as very highly unlikely it would include next years first as well.

  49. The 49ers do have some serious bargaining chips to make the move to # 1:

    “There are rumors that the San Francisco 49ers are trying to trade veteran safety Antoine Bethea and talented right tackle Anthony Davis.

    If those rumors are true, then the Tennessee Titans may have some serious conversations about lowering their price. ”

    Source: Fansided, Titans.

    1. Rams beat Baalke to it. IF there ever was any truth to this…
      No way Baalke would’ve given up the tops picks of the next two drafts like the Rams did.

  50. 49ers 2016 Home Opponents

    Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams

    49ers 2016 Away Opponents

    Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams

  51. Situation: Write something with a tiny hope of starting a short conversation.

    Failure: Have TomD reply with a post dump of unrelated quotes from the Internet.

    Prognosis: Slow but steady recovery, with occasional ups and downs.

  52. So much for TomD’s sources… Rams get number 1 pick for 6 picks… Goff is now a ram. Cal guy for a Cal team.. No way on God’s earth would Trent have given up that much

  53. The Rams trade ‘should’ ensure that the Niners will not draft a QB with the 7th pick and that’s a real good thing. Does this make Foles or even Mannion available for the Broncos.

    1. +1. If Kap is staying on the roster, we don’t need a QB in the first round (I prefer the QBs coming out over the next 2 years). I’m hoping Jalen Ramsey or Myles Jack falls to us.

      1. Myles Jack would be a steal at #7 … but, dunno
        if Baalke would pull the trigger, or not ..

        (Maybe we should ask Cassie for some insight)

        1. According to the Titans, the 49ers were working feverishly for the # 1 pick.
          Apparently those concussed players and switching # ones with Tennessee in addition to Baalke offering an ACL injured 49er did not appeal to them.
          What do you expect from a front office which was caught bragging about screwing Kap on his contract…Nobody wants to do business with them.

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