49ers preview: Forget about playoffs

Click here to read my preview of the 49ers’ 2016 season.

      1. “(Grant .. your enthusiasm .. is
        underwhelming !) .. ;-}”

        I disagree. Grant writes about the 49ers upcoming lack of success with an enthusiasm unlnown to mankind.

        1. You gotta point.. there .. Jack … I
          guess it’s all in how you look at it .. huh ??

          btw … you wouldn’t happen to be
          channelling one
          Jim Harbaugh …there … would ya ?

  1. Dial will be first up to play Nose Tackle in place of Williams and Dorsey.

    Armstead lining up on the outside doesn’t make him an outside linebacker. He was probably a Boxed End from a 2 and 3 point stances. O’Neil plays a lot of 5 man fronts; think an altered 3-4 alignment were the OLBs play up on the line of scrimmage in a wide techninque for containment (and he’ll change it up with shifts in alignment to over and under fronts in this 5-2 type formation). It wouldn’t surprise me if Armstead was moved over to one of the wide End positions in some heavy variation subpackage. But these guys play a containment role; not a Force to spill to the sideline OLB type of role. Or the OLB/End has a spill job and the typical single high coverage has an overhanging defensive back acting as the force player (Sky or Cloud).

    1. All4fun… Good spot re Dial at NT. Williams is the better NT, but Dial filled in most of 2014 admirably considering it wasn’t his natural position.

      I wonder if O’Neil will show some 4-3 single gap looks to compensate for these NT issue.

      1. any 4-3 looks you’ll see will likely be match up based decisions (peronnel and scheme). and the “4-3” will be with 3-4 personnel (meaning there will still be some 2 gap assignments). O’Neil will show lots of Under (and Over too I think) fronts from his base 3-4 that will at times look like a 4-3 and a 5-2 where he brings up one or more of his OLBs to the line of scrimmage.

  2. Will miss Ian Williams for sure. The 49ers start vs 4 run teams. There will be alot of hand wringing if things go poorly early. But I think they will come around later in the season.

    What could help the run defense till one of the NTs returns…. (Not predicting mind you)…

    – If O’Neil can find guys that can cover wide with minimal safety help, he can drop a safety lower
    -If both Buckner and Armstead can play base, Dial can hold down the fort at NT till Williams returns
    – Bowman should be better than last season. Not 100% his old self, but improved non the less.

    (I wish Baalke jumped on Billings in the draft. Redmond better be good.)

  3. B2W,
    I was high on Billings as well. I had him in all my mocks leading up to the draft. He could have a made a nice 2nd rd pick had we not traded out of that round. Cincy got him in the 4th rd which may have been one of the steals of the draft.
    Billings didn’t wow in his pre draft workouts and when he measured at only 6′ in height many teams shied away.

    Based on his college production, his height size did not effect his play. I would have taken him in the 2-3 rds. As it turns, he would have been a nice draft pick for us had we taken him. He’d would be vying for the NT position in a couple of weeks.
    I’ll chalk this one up as another ‘swing and miss’ by Baalke.

    Dial may hold this position down with Purcell and TJE giving him the occasional breather. I’m very interested in seeing what our defensive front 7 will look like come September.

    1. Billings has rare real life explosive strength. He was one of my draft crushes when I saw a Matt Waldman breakdown of him. Brute strength.

      That said, we have a rare combination of tall defenders in Dial, TJE, Buckner, Armstead. I’m very curious to see how they are deployed. The whole defense has an unusual blend of physical types. Will be fascinating to see if or how it all comes together.

      1. I remember your draft crush on Billings. He was rated 23, 27, 33 in the top 100 draft prospects. In January 2016, they had him ranked 10th on one list.

        Yet, he fell to 122nd. Go figure. The draft sure is an inexact science.

  4. Grant sez :

    “….GM Baalke might be on the hot seat ….”

    There ya go.. Grant …

    You dash my playoff ? .. hopes .. and ..
    then … you throw me a biscuit ..
    with that one !

  5. If you look at the roster, Purcell is the only other NT on the list besides Williams. Still think Dial will get a lot of snaps, but not only as a NT.

    1. Dial’s done the job before.

      Purcell was great in pre-season but didn’t hold up so good when he was called upon at NT in live games. He got pushed right, left or back by the better guards; and was nowhere near as explosive as in pre-season. He’s not weak, by any standard; but had really rough technique and should be better than last year but not yet a starter NT on a competitive team.

      1. Red, you may be right, but Dial is a bit tall to be an effective NT. You want guys built like fire hydrants, the Ian Williams types.

        Purcell also has that stout body, so I hope he starts, but Dial comes in frequently to give the offense different looks. Maybe they should morph into 4-3 at times, and keep the offense guessing.

  6. NT will be interesting. I’m not totally convinced that sliding Dial inside is the answer as he’s a built for DT/DE at 6-5. Purcell will have to prove himself though. Garrison Smith could be on the bubble while Dorsey & Williams are exempted by injuries. TJE in the mix.
    AFFP makes solid observations about the various ways to play the edge.
    Grant predictably pessimistic about SF in general and playoffs in particular? Sure. But I’m not predicting the playoffs either despite my acute case of Homeritis.

    1. Hmmmmm, 6 hours later and we’re sitting by the same ol’ babbling brook. Methinks you were a tad overly optimistic about today’s discourse OryGun.
      ; >)

    2. OREGON,
      Yep, have to agree with Brotha.
      If Grant was hoping to elicit a lot of feedback from this topic he may have missed that most posters here have already pretty much concluded that we are a 4-6 win team this year. I don’t think that anyone here is surprised to hear/read from Grant (or anyone) that we are not a playoff team.

      We are in REBUILD mode – and rebuild mode very rarely puts teams into the post season.

      1. AES and BRO T

        If it’s “true confessions” or some other PM soap, I’m guilty of being overly optimistic as to the niners chances for this season. It wasn’t a secret to me (chuckle) but I remain positive on them as I have since ’49…knowing how long the odds. I DO, however think that the right pieces are on the board (coaches and staff) who are going to get us there. ..not this season, but probably next.

        For the “I told you so ” crowd, I’m still sticking with 10-6…Go 9ers ! Go Blaine 1

        1. The optimism I was referring to was in respect to the quality of our exchanges here in the Peanut Gallery……
          For the team, I’ve thought all along that Chip (or any HC) would need 2 seasons, duct tape, bunji cords, and baling wire to put together a decent roster and cohesive team that could be plus .500 & competitive. My expectations are modest for this year, but hey, I’m Faithful, so I’m buckling in for the ride. There are a lot of question marks on the roster, but there may be some positive or promising answers among them.

      2. We have been in rebuild for the past 5 years. We are currently in rebuild, we are constantly in rebuild.
        And a front office that is constantly befuddled as to why their legion of ACL and walking wounded picks do not bear fruit…………

          1. We may have been in the SB recently, but Bulky has been running the draft for 5 years, the intent to give us a new team when the old guard moves along.

            It has not been a nice transition…….to say the very least.

            1. sawbrodie

              Yeah, and you’d bitch being hung with a ‘new’ rope

              Do you know there are some teams who’ve never been to a SB ?

  7. Grant may not predict the playoffs, but that is understandable since he also predicted a 5 win season. Lynch’s suspension and the killer tough first 5 games may make his prediction come true.

    However, remember ’81. The Niners were 6-10 the previous season and won it all. In 2010, they had a dismal 6-10 season, then went to 3 NFCC Games and a SB. Stranger things have happened.

    Look at Cleveland this year. They were down 1-3 in the championship series, and with a little help from the league and refs, won it all. Look at Leicester City. 5000 to 1 odds. Miracles happen all the time.

    I consider Kaep remaining on the team a miracle, so if Kaep can be rehabilitated, he will redeem himself and take the league by storm, again.

        1. I beg to differ. Driskel did OK when he started for a lower level team playing against lower level competition, but when he was playing the big boys, he did not shine at all.

          The NFL is a whole different story, and a quantum leap in difficulty.

          1. That’s great Seb that you disagree. Here are some facts for you. Driskel was a 5 star recruit out of highschool.. Highly regarded QB at the time. Went to Florida when that program was at its worst. Team sucked around him. He was expecting Meyer to be his coach but bolted for medical issues. Muschamp was the coach there and he was garbage. He lost his confidence due to the team that was around him. Sound familiar(Kaep)….. He goes to LT and throws for 25 Tds and 8 picks. Showed development. He is 6’4 234… Runs a 4.56 and has a very good arm. Has all the tools to thrive in a spread system like Chips. His upside is big.. If Chip is good with QBs he makes this kid special. He has everything Chip wants. A Mariota clone with a better arm. Mark my words, if this kid makes the 53 he gets a chance to start in 2017!

            1. Raw, you could insert Ken Dorsey/Tebow’s name in your narrative, and get the same gist. Great lower level achievements. Big fast strong arm with a winning tradition.

              Then he gets to the NFL and is exposed. Hope Driskel can become a good QB, but not too many sixth rounders win SBs. Only TB comes to mind.

              13 other QBs were chosen ahead of Driskel, so he was not elite even in his own draft class. You remember his La Tech days, I temper those with his Fla. days.

              The QB I like was passed by 5 teams who chose different QBs. He has a 27-20 record, a 4-2 road playoff record and a Super Bowl appearance.
              Gabbert has a 5-27 record, and has never sniffed the playoffs.

              Driskel better make huge strides in the ST department, or he might get cut. I could easily see the Niners putting him on the PS, so he can learn and become stronger.

              1. You can’t insert Dorsey and Tebow into this discussion.. We are not talking college achievements there bud. We are talking physically attributes. Which both those guys you mentioned are not even close to Driskel.

              2. Jamarcus Russel could throw the ball the length of the field while on his knees. He did not shine as an NFL QB. There is more than just physical attributes when one evaluates QBs. Druckenmiller could tow a car, but he was a major bust, too.

              3. My burning questions.

                Kaep Vs Gabbert. Who will shine?

                Can Dorsey recover from knee surgery? I Dub, too? When will they get back?

                Will Vance be cured of the dropsies?

                Can Hyde stay healthy?

                Is Robinson too much of a fly weight? Will WRs stiff arm him to the ground? I wonder if Chris Davis beats him out for the last spot on the DB squad.

                Who will back up Hyde?

                Who will play next to Bow?

                Will AD come back?

                Will Grant ever install an edit function?

            2. I’m as high on Driskel as anyone but to think he will have an impact in 2017 is wildly optimistic. I doubt he can will be a starter.

        2. RAW

          I truly hope that we get the chance to see…I agree that he has the pedigree to become special ….It would have filled everyone’s xmas stocking if Elway had given up a decent trade for Kaep….

      1. It took Joe 3 years to get to a SB, Kaep took 10 games. Of course, Joe also won 4 SBs, so Kaep has a lot of catching up to do, but ANY QB will pale in comparison to Joe.

        1. Kaep inherited a team that went to the NFC champ the season prior and would have been sb Champs had it not been for 2 fumbles and a negated fumble. Kaep rode the hype train. Hes not doing anything in the nfl for the rest of our lives.

          1. Interesting. The QB that I see has struggled, and his supporting cast around him may not be special, but that is why they play the game. On paper, some teams are invincible. Look at the 15-1 Panthers. They were on a roll, then met Vonn Miller and got rolled and smoked.

            I firmly believe that Chip is going to put all his chips on Kaep, because he is smart enough to utilize him properly. Chip is not going to listen to the talking heads who intoned that Kaep would never be a good QB until he learned to deliver the ball from the pocket. Too bad the pocket was non existent and he was sacked 80 times in a season and a half. Forcing Kaep to be only a pocket passer is like putting an Abrams tank in a pit.

            Chip would do well to study Grierson’s Raid. Stuart and Moseby were the confederate commanders who employed lightning strike cavalry units , however, Benjamin Grierson was a former music teacher who wreaked havoc in Tennessee for the Union forces. His small force of 1700 men suffered 24 casualties, but inflicted tremendous harm to the Confederate side. Grierson distracted rebel forces who went on wild goose chases to try and counter him. Chip should study how an inferior force, when applied to the opponents weaknesses, could obtain major victories.

            You may say that Kaep is done, but since he is only 28, he could easily have a 15 year career. With the proper coaching that accentuates his strengths and disguises his weaknesses, Kaep could rejuvenate his career. Since Devey, the QB killer is gone, I can only expect improvement.

            1. He has regressed every single season since his first as a starter. Even during that first season he had the breakout game vs Chi then looked below average basically the rest of the way, look at his stat line in a lot of those games. Even in the SB run season, do we not remember the game vs Carolina, he had 91 yards passing..91!!! And that was with that stacked 49ers team, with the coaching of Harb, with having the whole off season as the starter and training camp.

              In 57 career games, he’s passed for over 300 yards just 4 times…and passed for under 200 yards 31 times…31!!

              In the SB run year, he was under 200 yards passing 10 times, and broke 300 just twice.

              I don’t get what you think you see in the guy, but its not there.

              1. eMJay

                I am not one for statistics, nor analytic assessment…so reading your post not only solidified my opinion, but strengthened it even more….THANK YOU for illuminating…seriously, your post was well researched and explained what most of us only suspected…those numbers tell the whole story…again, Thanks

              2. It’s fine that you feel that the NFL players you select are incompetent. You would look better taking your stand if you could get your facts organized.

              3. eM, Kaep did not throw for big stats because he was not asked to do that. When the Niners ran the ball, Gore would get his thousand yards and the Niners would win.

                Kaep did not throw for more because he did not need to. He also had a 4-2 road playoff record, and came back when down 0-17 against Atlanta. While racking up those impressive stats, he ran for a record 181 yards against the Packers. When he ran for 181, he did not throw for big stats because he kept the ball and controlled the TOP.

                What I see is a QB that can shrug off arm tackles, outrun the DBs, and has a howitzer for an arm. Kaep is dynamic, and once put his foot on the half yard marker, then sprinted untouched 99 and a half yards for a TD. I see lots, and if you cannot see, i respectfully ask you to take a closer look. Chip will fix Kaep, utilize him properly and he will come storming back.

    1. Seb, one thing i know you know, and that is the 9ers.

      Having said that, how can you possibly compare ’81, that coaching staff and personnel to this one? Among many, many other factoids, didn’t we get Fred Dean that year? Something like that……….
      Baalke will never get us a Dean. First you have to recognize talent, than you have to be willing to pay for it. Instead, he keeps drafting ACL’s thinking the next Dean is among them–getting one for cheap.
      In all honesty, you will have to show me where the “light” is with this front office.

      1. I did not compare the teams per se, but compared the futility of a previous season, and noted the stellar improvement the next season.

        I did not equate Joe with Kaep, or Bill with Chip.That would be foolish, but just noted that historically, bad teams have improved dramatically. I could also throw in the Singletary, JH seasons to demonstrate marked improvement.

  8. Well, if Gabbert starts, I just do not see the Niners winning more than 5 games. Kaep is their best chance to succeed, even if some hate him, and with decent coaching, fixing his deficiencies will not be difficult.

    1. Seb
      after last years proof, it will only take Kaep 2 1/2 more seasons to win 5 games. He is not a well-coached QB, and why would he learn in training camp what he should have learned in his previous 28 years ?

      1. Ore, Kaep did regress, but when he had a DJ who told the QBs to throw at 85%, he was throwing with one hand tied behind his back.

        When Chryst forced him to be only a pocket passer when the pocket collapsed like a house of cards, it was like they hog tied him, and led him to the slaughterhouse.

        Chip is way smarter than that, and I expect to see more rollouts, zone read and even the pistol. Kaep will be well coached, unless you think Chip is a dud.

        Remember, Kaep led the Niners to the Super Bowl after only 10 games, so he learned enough to do that, already.

        1. Seb,

          You are ignoring CK’s struggles under Harbaugh. They coached around his deficiencies. These became far more evident under Tomsula, but they’ve always been there.

          That is not to say that Keap does not have talent, he does. But, he is far too quick to run, has trouble reading the field, locks on to his receivers, has a very long delivery, throws off his back foot and exhibits poor mechanics far too often while possibly having poor locker room presence.

          If Chip Kelly can easily fix that well his bust at the HOF should be being polished right now don’t you think?

          1. East, Kaep did not perform at his best, I admit that.

            However, he ran the pistol in college so he had at least 2 reads right away. Does he hand off, or keep the ball to pass if he sees a player open.Then he can scramble in the pocket to buy time while looking downfield. Then if containment breaks down, he can elude the pass rush, buy more time, or decide to run.

            I watched his Nevada games, and he consistently had multiple reads, so the myth about him being a one read QB is specious. The whole system built around the pistol dictated for him to sequentially go through his options. Multiple options.

            I did not mind if he has an elongated motion, because he seemed to get the ball out of his hand quick enough to avoid the sack. However, during last year, Devey just stood still and let the pass rusher run by him, so Kaep could not set his feet before he had a pass rusher in his face. Pears whiffed way too many times, too. Martin looked like he was on roller skates as he was driven back into Kaep’s face. Only Staley and Boone looked competent, and even they had their moments. It did not help when DBs commented that the passing game was so simplistic, they could anticipate and jump routes.

            I know Kaep throws a fastball, but other times, he can throw with touch. He has also thrown jaw dropping passes that very few other QBs would even attempt, so to call his passing deficient is to ignore the fact that he can make those impressive throws.

            I have advocated for over 2 years that Kaep should face one way, while looking in another direction. Maybe wearing a visor will help him be more deceptive.

            Dont get me started on the locker room gossip. Jed, in his infinite wisdom, considers leaks to be business as usual. To me, it is a sign that nobody is loyal, and back biting and back stabbing is the modus operandi. I am appalled that the leaks occur, and they can only hurt the team. If Jed wants to lead, the first thing he should do is stop the leaks, and when he finds out who is leaking, he should truly mutually part with the leaker.

            Frankly, I want what happens in the locker room to stay in the locker room. Solid classy organizations keep a tight lid on the gossip. When Jed’s minions start leaking like a sieve, it really hurts the team morale. The losing the locker room smear is equal to Brooks cussing out Tomsula. The dysfunction is evident and leads to losing. The leak about the study time could only have come from either Gabbert, or the front office. I think Gabbert has enough character, that he would not stoop to behave in such an abhorrent manner. The FO, I am not so sure.

            You are correct. If Chip can get Kaep to play like his 2012 season, he will be hailed as a genius. It was a miracle that he persuaded Kaep to stay, I think he could perform another miracle and resurrect his career. If that happens, I will personally bring my polishing cloth.

            1. As I stated, the criticisms were based on observations prior to last year, except maybe the last.

              His production at Nevada may be good but he has shown no indication that he can continue that kind of production in the NFL. The 10 games he had do not a career make. He can make throws others cannot, though his accuracy is not the best either and never has been. It looks like LBs and DBs are forcing Kap into making decisions that do not turn into positive plays. They force him to be one-dimensional. He cannot or does not know how to make the defense pay for those adjustments.

              Part of what made Montana great is that he threw a catchable ball, and forced the d to adjust to him. Kap rarely throws with touch and that has been a big critique of his game for a long time. Steve Young did not become a HOF qb until he stopped being a running qb and became a passer who could run. At 28 years old I just don’t see the opportunity for growth you see in CK.

              Regarding the leaking, I’m in full agreement that it hurts the team and I would also agree that it seems as though the FO at least tacitly allowed some leaks to fester, Harbaugh being the most egregious. Now, postulating that Gabbert was the source of the leak regarding Kaps time studying without any evidence is just wild conjecture and wishful thinking. I’ve seen nothing in Gabbert’s character to indicate he would do such a thing.

              Look I want and have always wanted CK to be all world, but from his first couple of games I always was hesitant to jump on his band wagon. I like the kid and think he got an unfair shake in front of the media, but at the same time it does not stop his many flaws as an NFL QB.

              I’m not a big fan of Gabbert either. I don’t think either one of these two are long term solutions. I hope to have to eat my words. I wish to be able to do so. I’m not optimistic it will occur, however.

              1. East, sorry if I made it sound like Gabbert leaked the study times, but it was from his computer, and it was proprietary information that never should have been divulged. In all probability, it was Paraag Marathe.

                Tomsula left and would not come back until he was fired, but Jed let him come back even though he lost the title of president.

                I totally agree about Joe. I watched him throw passes for years, and it was poetry in motion. Kaep may throw fastballs, but when he is coached to throw at 85%, and the result is 2 pick sixes on the his first 2 passes, you have to admit that the coaching was counter productive. I would rather have him throw fastballs that are hard to catch, and hard to intercept, than lollypops that result in pick sixes.

                I too, want Kaep to be all world, but I have admitted that he had regressed and could improve.

                Hopefully, Chip is the right person to coach Kaep and fix his flaws, or at least hide them, and let him play to his strengths.

              2. The pick sixes in his first game had nothing to do with his throwing velocity. They were bad throws where he stared down his receiver… in one instance he even pump faked to the receiver he was throwing to… he couldn’t have done a better job telling the other team where he was throwing if he pulled out a laser pointer.

              3. Tyrann Mathieu admitted that they knew where he was going to throw to so they could jump the routes. The O line whiffing on blocks allowed pressure, and he was assured by the DJ that the side line pass was an automatic safety valve. Just watch some of Logan’s videos about his coaching philosophy.

              4. That first pass intended for VD was a floater. He threw off his back foot while falling back, but that was because he he could not step into the throw since he had a pass rusher in his face.

                It was poor decision making on his part, but also horrendous coaching and putrid pass protection.

              5. “Tyrann Mathieu admitted that they knew where he was going to throw to so they could jump the routes”
                Yeah, its pretty easy to tell where someone is going to throw when they only look at one player the whole time, pump fake to that guy, keep staring at him and then throw the ball to him.
                Defenses should never know exactly where a qb is going to throw when there are three routes being run.
                As to Mathews statement, he stated the following…

                “The world knows what type of quarterback Colin Kaepernick is,” Mathieu said. “Obviously, he’s a dual threat. He can beat you in the passing game if you let him, but most of the time a lot of their pass concepts are designed for him to run to his right, to our left, to make it an easier read and to make it an easier throw because you think about a lot of their passing game, a lot of those are roll out passes. So you basically cut the field in half and it makes it easier for the quarterback to read, but it also makes it easier for the defense to kind of anticipate where the ball is about to go.”

              6. I would respectfully suggest that the Niners mix things up and roll Kaep to the left, since they are game planning to stop the roll to the right. They might not have expected that.

    2. Seb, you know as well as anyone his mechanics are way off. If Walsh got a hold of this guy, he would tear him down for a rebuild–a lot of that from the neck up.

    3. It’s not that black and white, Seb. Kap has good qualities, but he has some glaring deficiencies as well. Your arguments against Driskel, for example, could easily be used as counter arguments against CK. That’s the challenge. The QBs right now leave a lot to be desired, so we fans pin our hopes (wishes really) on any small bit we see in the qb we favor for the job. Be that CK, Gabbert or even Driskel.

      Not every poor throw Kap makes is the coaches fault or bad offensive blocking or injuries or anything other than bad qb decisions.

      When he threw that ball to Crabtree in the NFCCG he threw a bad ball that could be picked off. Simple as that. Crabtree should have made a better effort to catch the ball, but there was also an uncovered TE in the end zone. That’s vision. A winning qb has it. Ck has demonstrated repeatedly he does not, which is why the coaches hide him.

      Gabbert isn’t much better, if at all, training camp will settle this argument. Driskel has a good background but did not do so well in college for the reasons he didn’t do well. He has to show what he is made of. Lots of teams passed on him and he was a 6th rounder. Either he’s trash or he’s a middling qb or he may be gem. We’ll see. Speculation is fun, isn’t it?

      I for one wish one of these guys (why is no one championing poor Thad Lewis?) steps up and really becomes an envy of the league. I’m not particularly optimistic, but hey, Cleveland fans have been hoping for a decent QB since….

      1. Sorry, East, but you cannot hide the QB. He takes almost every snap. Maybe you can hide his weaknesses, but it would be better to showcase and utilize his talents.

        Dont get me started on looking off the DBs. I said that before the game, and actually, he had 3 open players.

        I still will champion Kaep, because he is healthy and raring to go. He wants to redeem himself, and I truly believe that the fix will be easy. With AD coming back to help the O line, Hyde coming back fully healthy, a stable of fast receivers and a coach who can put a decent game plan together, Kaep will resurrect his career

        I have been advocating the hurry up offense for over 2 years, so Chip is the perfect coach to fix the offensive malaise. I envision lots of Niners running through holes for big gains, just like in Oregon.

        Maybe Chip should use both QBs, if they are neck and neck in the competition

    4. Seb, my man……………if Kap doesnt become the second coming of Young, well…………….see definition of Baalke.

  9. On paper they look 4-12/5-11.. The Defense looks quicker but young and will make mistakes. Also, who will step up and lead in close games? The big question is the Offense. Will Chip’s scheme work? Remember the Offense has been horrible the last two seasons. A 50% improvement would be a huge improvement. Again who will lead in close games? Gabbert already proved last season he can take over a game and win in a hostile environment with his TD run and long pass to Torrey Smith to beat Chicago in OT.. That is what they will need to do just to get to 8-8 with arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL..

    1. Gabbert also proved he can go to Cleveland and lose a game to a horrific team with Manziel at QB. So pump the breaks. The important thing about this season is to see development to our key young players. The QB position is what it is this year. Either Driskel or a QB in the 2017 draft is our QB going forward. Unless Kaep finds himself. Not Gabbert that’s for sure.

      1. RAW

        Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t that Cleveland game Gabbert’s first game after stepping in for Kaep with no snaps with the first team ? You’re right, this season is for the development of our young players…I hope we do better because I want to see Staley end his career with some successful seasons….

        1. That’s great but don’t make excuses for why he was bad that day. Cause you specially don’t make excuses for when Kaep played poorly. Gabbert had the luxury of having Kilgore in at center which is an upgrade. He also had Trent Brown for a couple games and Tiller who are all BIG upgrades.

            1. That’s funny Hammer you mentioned his numbers that game. He did those stats when the game was out of reach against the worst team in football. He literally threw his TD with seconds left in the game.. Classic!

              1. Niners were trailing 24-3 into the 4th quarter.. 3 points against the Browns. You proud Hammer? This is the QB you been talking about.

              2. Gabbert could easily have gone 0-8. Quinn went brain dead, and did not go for it when he had the ball on the goal line, so the Falcons lost. The Bears kicker missed 3 times. The Rams had a chip shot blocked that would have won the game if it had been successful.

                Posters who tout Gabbert are grasping at straws. He panics and throws the ball too early so they do not have time to run past the sticks. Gabbert is not deadly accurate, or an inspirational leader. Maybe he played better than Kaep, but he did not need 3 surgeries like Kaep did.

                With a 3-5 record, some seem to be comparing him to Cam Newton.

              3. We can play the if/then game all day and it is worthless.

                Try sticking to what actually happened.

              4. Seb,
                We will have to see how Gabbert responds to Kelly’s system and coaching, just like we will have to see how Kaep responds to Kelly. I’m not laying heavy money on either of them.

              5. Coach, sorry again if I mistakenly included you with the clique. You are very football savvy and I value your opinion.

                I agree. I hope that there is a spirited, yet fair competition. If Gabbert out competes Kaep, I hope Kaep takes on his role with grace and dignity. I hope he backs Gabbert, and helps him to win games.

              6. “He was better than Kaepernick in every category last year sweetheart”.

                Fact Checker says this is incorrect. Short ALEX is a percentage of passes thrown short of the sticks. In 2015, Ben Rothlisburger 28.2%, Aaron Rogers 28.3%, had the lowest Short ALEX on 3rd downs. Blaine Gabbert 63.6%, Alex Smith 59.1%, had the highest. Colin Kaepernick 43.2%, and ranked 22nd.

              7. Yep, 2016 marked a new low in ALEX (Air Less Expected) when Alex Smith’s -3.4 beat out Trent Edwards’ old record (2009) of -2.8. Trent Edwards lost yet another 2009 “record” of throwing short of the sticks on 62.3 percent of his third-down throws, by none other than, yep, you guessed it, Blaine Gabbert, who finished the season at 65 percent. Gabbert and Smith share the dubious honor of accounting for five of the 10 lowest ALEX seasons since 2006. Contrast that with Ben Roethlisberger’s +6.83 ALEX on third down, the second-highest average since 2006, behind only Michael Vick’s +6.97 on the 2006 Falcons.

                Gabbert struggled to get the ball to the sticks, but his opponents did not. The 49ers defense were more than three standard deviations above the average of +1.3, at +4.6. Bad enough put them dead last….

              8. Out of curiosity razor, does ALEX provide a breakdown based on distance? i.e. 3rd and short vs 3rd and medium vs 3rd and long?

              9. Yep, that is what I was after.

                Of note, on 3rd and short and 3rd and long, Gabbert threw on average +5.4 yards past the marker and +3.8 yards past the marker (both ahead of Kaep). It was, as suspected, his 3rd and long average of -7.0 yards before the marker (and I daresay high percentage of 3rd downs that were 3rd and long, though this isn’t outlined in the chart) that influenced his very poor -2.7 yards before the marker on average in total.

                Basically, when it was 3rd and long, he went very conservative. When it was 3rd and short and 3rd and medium, he was more aggressive than Kaep. We can’t say for certain what led to this, but it is interesting, and would seem to lend some credence to the idea that Gabbert was doing what he was told by the coaches to do.

              10. “and would seem to lend some credence to the idea that Gabbert was doing what he was told by the coaches to do.”

                Agree, Scooter. Gabbert knows what he needs to do. He even talked about the poor performance on third down last year in a post game presser. With Jim “you can’t be afraid to punt” gone and with Kelly’s more aggressive style, there will be, imo, no excuses for Gabbert. He either rises to the occasion or is let go after this year. I think he’ll meet the expectations because I think his confidence is back after last year.

                With Kap, I don’t know what to think yet. Competition is good even at the GM level.

              11. RAW

                boy did I fall for that…nice job of cherry-picking your stats game….that loss certainly was Blaine’s fault …sarcasm

              12. I think the point is, if you have to hide your quarterback on 3rd and 10, there’s 24 other quarterbacks in the league who can fill that role….

              13. My eyes may be deceiving me here Razor, but didn’t Kaep average 3.2 yards before the marker himself on 3rd and long? Looks like the coaches were trying to hide him too. Why are you defending Kaep, but not Gabbert?

              14. Yes and Gabbert is -7 and 14% conversion rate, Kaepernick 20% conversion rate. Two different quarterbacks, and both need to be hidden accordingly….

              15. Yes. Basically, both guys sucked when it was 3rd and long. Using these metrics to suggest Kaep is better than Gabbert is misleading, as both were awful. The difference on 3rd and long between throwing 7 yards short of the sticks on average and 3.2 yards short of the sticks on average was very little, as both resulted in very low conversion rates.

                Of interest, Gabbert was more aggressive than Kaep on 3rd and short and 3rd and medium, but it translated to a considerably lower conversion rate on 3rd and short (though considerably higher conversion rate on 3rd and medium).

              16. I think we can both agree that Kaepernick wants to push the ball down the field, and has a more aggressive mentality. I think he’s a better fit because Chip likes to go downfield. I suspect Kaepernick’s ALEX was much better in 2012 and 2013….

              17. I think Gabbert still really struggles with patience in the pocket against a pass rush.

          1. Both Gabbert and CK have a chance to make good this season. Gabbert is the better passer, Kap is the better runner – I believe Chip will work packages into the scheme to utilize their strengths. I expect the offense to be head-n-shoulders over last year and that bodes well for 2016 and beyond.

            A lot will depend on the defense and we may have the makings of a very good one considering many young players that will develop and eventually contribute.

            I’m ready for some football!
            Even if we come away with our share of bumps and bruises.

            1. Exactly! Well stated AES. “Gabbert is the better passer, Kap is the better runner.” Neither is so superior that there is an obvious choice (unfortunately). That is too bad. The offense will improve and much will depend on D like it always does (Cleveland last year being a prime example).

          2. “He also had Trent Brown for a couple games and Tiller who are all BIG upgrades.”

            Interesting… with these Huge upgrades, the offensive lines ranking improved by exactly 0 slots. Wait what??? Your definition of improvement and mine are different I guess.

    2. Bears gave the game away with their kicker missing an extra point that would have won it, and an easy missed FG that should have won it also. Gabbert did shine in the end, but the Bears were demoralized by the ineptitude of their STs.

      1. Seb

        does this mean that the “mit6igating circumstances ‘ that you mentioned earlier only pertain to Kaep.?

        1. Seb

          does this mean that the “mitigating circumstances ‘ that you mentioned earlier only pertain to Kaep.?

          1. No, it pertains to every player. Kaep is solely blamed for missing Torrey, but maybe the coaches told him to concentrate on the wrong things. The DB made a judgement call and took a risk that paid off.

            Niners won the Bears game because of kicker inaccuracy. If not for that, the Niners would have lost. You could consider that a mitigating circumstance.

              1. AND proud of it. Nobody else seems to want to defend Kaep, and I see him as the best chance for the Niners to succeed.

            1. “Maybe the coaches told him……..”. Kap needs to stand on his own accomplishments. Cant blame the coaches for the bad Kap, then say it was Kap for the good Kap.

              Cant have it both ways………..

    3. Don’t underestimate how much better Blaine Gabbert fits into Chip’s system, as opposed to Geep’s. Last years offensive system completely unraveled after the opening game VS Minn. And deteriorated rapidly as Hyde got hurt, and Kap decided to either throw the ball 25 yards out of bounds, or straight into the ground, in order to avoid a turnover. Some of the simplified concepts Geep was running would have been easy enough for college players to anticipate, and defend. And the Ram’s game basically sealed Kap’s fate, IMO. He has proven to have the worse case of tunnel vision I have ever seen in a starting QB. He had his fastest receiver split out wide to his left, UNCOVERED, JUMPING UP AND DOWN WAIVING HIS ARMS FRANTICALLY, and never even had enough peripheral vision to spot him.

      Can Chip’s spread system and simplified reads, correct such a huge deficiency? My money is on Blaine!

      1. Right before Kap’ benching last year there was one statement made by a player from the opposing team that really stood out for me. I can’t remember who the player was but he said that the defense wanted to keep CK in the pocket and make him throw because they knew that this was Kap’ weakness.

        That statement was a resounding vote of disrespect and amplified CK’ regression loud and clear.

        CK will need to come into TC knowing that he is not entitled to anything. He will need to prove to Kelly and the rest of his teammates that he is here to earn the starting job and work his a!# off to regain respect.
        Kap’ quick rise to the top may have been his downfall because he never had to work very hard before being elevated when AS was hurt. The subsequent success and hobnobbing with hollywood celebrities along with SI pictures came to fast and easy.

        For Kap, now the real work begins and I’m anxious to see what he’s made of in the way he approaches it.

      2. 49, I know you pledged not to engage me, so I have left you alone, but I have to respond.

        Of course, it looked bad, and Kaep will have to live with that for the rest of his career. However, there were mitigating circumstances. What if the coaches told Kaep that he had to run the play called, and had no authority to change the play at the LOS? They were dunderingly predictable, so the CB cheated up to the LOS at the last second because he and the whole Rams team knew what play was going to be run. Granted, he was reading the QB’s eyes, but I have long advocated that Kaep should face one way, while looking in another direction, and they still ignored my advice.

        Another point I wish to contest is your assertion that Gabbert was superior to Kaep in his ability to run Chip Kelly’s offense. I remember many pundits speculating that Chip wanted to trade for Kaep because he was the perfect fit for his system. I can clearly remember that absolutely no one was speculating about Chip trading for Gabbert. I could produce reams of Kaep speculation, especially from the Eagles blog sites, but absolutely nothing about Gabbert. In fact, Gabbert was so valued, he was traded for a 6th round pick. That pick turned out to be Luke Bowanko, who did not start last year and played in only 6 games. Right now, he just had surgery, so he is PUP.

        Kaep is not only the perfect fit, he is superior to Gabbert. Kaep is faster, and has better downfield accuracy. He is more elusive, and can shrug off arm tackles, while discombobulating DBs with his threat to out run them, thus leaving receivers wide open. Kaep has made throws that Gabbert could only dream of. Chip praised Kaep’s intelligence, so I think Kaep can run the Chip Kelly system. Gabbert can, too, but my opinion is that Kaep is superior.

        Please feel free not to respond, but I just had to get my 2 cents in.

        1. More like a dollars worth.

          Seb, your inability to look at Kap objectively puts you in the Baalke camp for talent evaluation.

  10. Interesting to read Alex Boone’s prediction that Blaine Gabbert will beat out Kap, and start the season as the #1 QB. It certainly adds more credence to his “Prima-donna” statement he made during the early months of the offseason. Now we know he wasn’t talking about Blaine, when he made the comment.

    It will be one of the most intriguing camp battles in recent memory. In the end, I think a 7-9 record is the very best we can ask for during this rebuilding, revamping season. My guess ……… 6-10. Which makes the Niner’s “over 5.5” an interestingly appealing wager in Sin City!

  11. Can’t say I find anything Boone says interesting. He may be right but he’s such a yapper it’s hard to take him seriously.

    1. Boone intensely hates the Niner FO, so he is probably stirring up controversy just to needle them. Baalke probably now will tell Chip to start Kaep just to prove Boone wrong.

  12. I still think the play of the defense will be the key to how well the 49ers go this year. Lots of young talent on that side of the ball. If the 49ers can harness that talent into a cohesive unit they could be something of a surprise. If not, the 49ers will struggle mightily all year.

  13. Scooter

    YES! I agree that the D will set up the Offense with many short fields with 3 & outs and turnovers than they have seen in 5 years

    1. My devices can’t play periscope. Apparently “Ricky Ravenga” has several archived videos on his account.

      1. I haven’t gotten it to play still. I hope it’s not Aldon. I think he has generational talent. It would be a waste.

      2. I dunno Razor. He uses his own name within the transcript, saying -nothing says Aldon Smith.- I’m thinking he should seek some vocational counseling and training. But not truck driver, because they get tested regularly.
        Seriously, I bet Goodell sits on his request for reinstatement for a while (with random testing throughout.) I also wonder whether this unproven report about Aldon won’t hurt Josh’s request for reinstatement. Both guys, and maybe the DE from the Cowboys got “jones'”. They can’t put it down. Can’t. Marinovich.
        Now personally I think the NFL and Feds are stupid to perpetuate the weed ban, but it’s a condition of employment. Warren Sapp adjusted and thrived.
        Ahem, Aaron Lynch, ahem.

        1. The NFL’s weed policy is nonsense. Everyone in Colorado can smoke weed except Bronco players. How silly. They don’t test for HGH, but they do for pot while making millions on beer sales?

          1. We keep legalizing these things, and justifying it by pointing to other things, comes pretty close to a self indulgent civilization. What self indulgent civilization flourished in the arts and commerce?

            No more duty of care to one another? You wont get both.

            1. It’s also false that everyone in Colorado can smoke. Federal employees cannot, as I am sure fire/safety officers and many others like medical personnel. It’s like drinking just because it’s legal doesn’t mean you can do it. Try and drink and fly a plane sometime or drive a commercial bus.

  14. Has anyone else noticed that someone is missing around here today? I wonder if Grant had anything to do with it? Grant if you did, thank you very much.

  15. The last week of the off season is drawing slowly to a close. Lots of questions and hopefully the answers come quickly. I am with Brodie, am anxious to see how the defense looks. I do believe the most talent on the team is on defense. With four first round picks these defense should be able to shine. Eric Reid, Jimmy Ward, Arik Armstead, and Deforest Buckner. That’s one third of the potential starting lineup. Coupled with Bowman and Bethea this defense has the potential to be very good.

    Offense with a, not great, not elite but a good performance from the QB position the offense should perform at a top 10. That’s a big IF from the QB position. The O-line will be very good IF the RT can be found. Hyde could possible lead the league in rushing and total yards IF he can stay healthy. The WR and TE positions seems to be wide open. Depth is a big question mark.

    I never considered Kelly a QB guru but I do expect from his performance at Oregon and the Eagles, that the statistics for either Gabbert or Kaep will improve. To me though I don’t think the improvement of the stats will be a true indicator if these QB’s become better players. Chip’s system seems to make the QB’s stats better, Foles and Sanchez stats were better but they were not better QB’s.

    1. Good take. I’m not expecting alot of wins, but I’m really going to enjoy watching the next generation of players develop, and seeing how (or if) it all fits together.

      – how will a D line full of beanstalks do?
      – how will O’Neil’s single high safety do?
      – will Tartt make a year two leap?
      – how much impact will a healthy Bethea and healthyier Bowman have?
      – how will the offense do if Hyde stays in one piece?
      – when will Garnett start?

        1. Shoupbj A big part of the fun is watching how players develop, and how they are deployed. Win or lose, the 49ers should at least be interesting.

  16. A big problem with 9ers this year is that both the team and Chip’s scheme does not provide much come-from-behind potential…and opposition will be looking to exploit 9ers weaknesses very early and very often…..but in this scenario Kaep will create more opportunities

    1. Not endorsing either QB, but to this day I think Harbaugh replaced Smith with CK because he thought he neded CK’s “chaos production” to get past the NYGs post season.

      NY pulled a fast one by missing the play offs in 2012.

      1. He definitely added another dimension at that moment. The league adjusted and he needs to find a solution. He may, but we need to see it. For me, I don’t have a fave. I want the best guy out there; looking for respectability this year. Next year I need ’em to be dangerous.

  17. Gabbert vs Kaepernick is about as meaningful as Rattay vs Dorsey.

    Nothing like two 2nd stringers battling for the starting job.

      1. Aldon might have set a sports record for the world’s most expensive party materials when you combine all offseason events. Roughly what Von Miller got give or take $10m. Was was indeed.

      2. Ha, I guess if the shoe fits. Is it really all my fault though, not easy to be excited about what they’re giving us.

    1. C4C

      (mumble, mumble…) Rattay never got his proper due….Who do you think was running for his life behind the 49er Oline before Alex Smith was running for his life behind the 49er Oline ? Rattay was the top passing collegiate QB when the 49ers drafted him….just saying….

      1. True dat. Garcia was so elusive, improvisational and tough minded that we “undermisestimated” the decline of that OL. The team, more than Rattay was hapless.
        (Spellcheck tried to make my Dubya-ism ‘understand tomatoes’.)

      2. If I was somehow able to remove the ability to use the O-line as a QB excuse I’m pretty certain that half the posts on here would disappear.

  18. 1. The run defense is fine. Last season the 49ers run defense in nickle was the problem giving up over 5 yards/carry. In the base defense the 49ers gave up about 3.5 yards a carry. Over-all, the 49ers defense finished tied for 10th at 4.0 YPC. The reason for so many yards and TDs was the offense was so bad that the defense defended short-fields all year plus teams, not being behind very often, ran more than normal.

    This stuff doesn’t happen in a vacuum.

    2. Easier than replacing Smith who was the best pass rusher in the NFL his first three years. I’m more concerned about replacing Brooks, who was pretty weak as a pass-rusher. for 16-games.

    3. Baalke’s not on the hot seat. The 49ers are .611 with Baalke as GM. And while he’s made some mistakes, all GMs make mistakes. And the obvious fact to the struggles we have now is that the 49ers, because of the FA CAP LOSSES, character-cuts, retirements and quitters lost half their starters from 2014 to 2015, are in a natural down cycle. YOU DO NOT LOSE HALF YOUR TEAM AND PLAY WELL THE NEXT YEAR.

    Also, for all the whinging about the draft, since he took over at GM only ONE GM has drafted more pro-bowlers. No GM has out-performed him in Round 1. And he has been equal to, or better, than the NFL at large in every Day 2 round.

    Last, the ACL club is a stupid example. For example, players drafted at the end of Round 3 have a 30% of developing into starters. And you’re ranking on that kind of pick? Seriously, you need LEARN HOW THE DRAFT WORKS.

    4. NFL football favors Gabbert. Kaepernick has demonstrated he can’t throw WRs open. That he panics under pressure (not that Gabbert is a champ or anything). That he was the product of a junk offense (read-option/pistol) and could not make the transition to NFL pocket passer as he’s just too **** slow upstairs.

    Gabbert MIGHT be able to become an NFL QB. Kaepernick has yet to show one sign of being able to be a pocket passer.

    1. Moses,

      Good points all. Hopefully the nickle d can improve. Pass rush needs some teeth and the loss of Lynch could really hurt, though I hope it is opportunity for others and a fire for him. Not a Baalke apologist but do recognize that the man has good qualities. You made good points that people should remember.

    2. I will say it once, I will say it a thousand times, forcing Kaep to be only a pocket passer is like putting an Abrams tank in a pit. Maybe they should play to his strengths instead of exposing his weaknesses. Other teams tried to ( and succeeded to) shape the Niners by forcing Kaep to stay in the pocket, which collapsed like a house of cards. Obviously, I want the Niners to shape the opposition by rolling him out more.

      Why did they lose half their team? Because they showed no loyalty and stabbed JH in the back. The Niner FO showed no loyalty, so the players returned no loyalty. The Niner FO broke their promise to Kaep, and did nothing to retain veteran leadership. They let Iupati, Gore, and Crabtree walk.

      Stabbing JH in the back was counter productive because other competent coaches saw what the FO did, and avoided the Niners like the plague. Niners were forced to scrape the bottom of the barrel and selected a position coach as HC, and hired a DJ. Going cheap produced cheap results.

      I know how the draft works, and the players Baalke passed on that were picked right after Redmond were- Yannick Ngakoue DE, Bronson Kaufusi DE, Darian Thompson S, Jonathan Bullard DT, Kenyan Drake RB, Keivalrae Russel CB, Shilique Calhoun DE and Shon Coleman OT. Any one of those players could have improved the Niners. In my last mock, I had the Niners selecting Buckner, Garnett and Cooper. What other poster on this site or NN had 3 hits?

      When Baalke claims that he avoids FAs, and prefers to build through the draft, but then has an entire draft class (2012) disappear, he is sounding obtuse. Baalke, and his total lack of people skills, lets his emotions control his behavior, so now we have AD in limbo while he could help shore up that leaky O line.
      Baalke and his ACL picks have generally failed, but his red flag picks have blown up in his face. Aldon imploded, but Baalke could have selected JJ Watt 4 picks later.

      1. “forcing Kaep to be only a pocket passer is like putting an Abrams tank in a pit. Maybe they should play to his strengths instead of exposing his weaknesses. Other teams tried to ( and succeeded to) shape the Niners by forcing Kaep to stay in the pocket,”

        Hilarious. You just blamed the 49ers for keeping Kaepernick in the pocket, which you acknowledge he is not good at, while also stating that the opponents successfully forced them to do that. Pure genius my friend.

        This isn’t the 49ers fault. It’s Kaepernick’s. The league adjusted to his strengths and he has failed at making the counter-adjustment.

        Stop blaming everyone else for his failings. Be better than that DS94eveSeb.

        1. No, you agree that they shaped the Niners, and my counter is for the Niners to shape their opponent. That means putting the tight end in motion so he can pinch in the DE so Kaep can roll out to that side.

          The Niners should devise plays where there is a mobile pocket. Static defenses (as in pass protection) are as effective as the Maginot Line.

          1. I think you mean static offenses, don’t you?

            You may be mixing metaphors here. The Maginot line was a defensive front and it was effective though there was obviously a way around it. Every fortification has a limitation.

            If you wish to roll the QB out that will mean that half the field will not need to be covered and a DB, Safety or Linebacker will surely cheat to the side the play is moving to counter the move. Now maybe CK will find the open receiver but then by that time he may have heat on him and be forced to throw off his back foot to the receiver he’s been staring down, gifting the opposing team a pick 6. You see they may be employing the Blitz which was the tactic the Germans used to such efficacy to obliterate line formations of traditional warfare and wreck havoc.

            1. This is why T. Matthews of the cardinals stated the niners offense was predictable. As he stated the niners were consistently trying to roll the qb to one side or the other which cut the field half and made them predictable.

    3. The run defense was not fine. They allowed Rawls to run for 252 yards against them. One season, the Niners allowed only one RB to run for more than 100 yards on them, and only one rushing TD. That defense was fine. This past seasons run defense was a sieve.

      Hopefully, with Buckner and Blair, the run defense can become stout again. Losing Dorsey was a huge setback, but hopefully, he can return soon.

      1. Have to agree with Seb, the run defense was terrible last year.
        Cleveland, who had the worst ranked Run Game offense in the NFL prior to facing SF ran for 230 yards… their average rush yards per game prior to that… 73.9.

        This has to get fixed.

    4. Looks like Moses is vying for the team apologist/employee title with 49reasons.

      Your views here really ignore some important facts:

      The team plays in Nickel two thirds of the time, so giving up over 5 ypc is a big problem. They were 29th in total rushing yardage given up. Make all the excuses you like, but those are the facts. It doesn’t just happen because the offense isn’t playing well. It’s about a defense that can’t stop the running game, and two of their better run stoppers will likely be on the shelf to start the season.

      I don’t know if Baalke is on the hot seat but his performance says he should be. There was an article posted on here a few weeks ago that showed how poor a job he has done in the past 5 years, to the point he is near the bottom of the league. He is currently on a stretch of drafting ineptitude that is truly incredible.

      This continuing Kap vs. Gabbert argument ignores some very fundamental truths:

      Up until last season, Kap held a higher completion percentage in every NFL season he played over Gabbert.

      His overall stats in every major category dwarfed Gabbert.

      Gabbert’s play while statistically better than Kap’s last season, did not result in better results. There was a lot of stat padding late in games and on dumpoffs that resulted in a terrible 3rd down percentage – that was actually worse than Kap’s before he was replaced. Kap was awful last season, but Gabbert wasn’t much better and his performance was not as good as Kap’s from the previous season when many were down on him for regressing. If you were upset with Kap’s performance in 2014, then you shouldn’t be trumpeting what Gabbert did last year.

      I don’t know who is going to win this competition, but if Gabbert is the QB this year, it’s in a place holding role until they can draft somebody, because he has shown no ability in College or the pros to lead a team anywhere but mediocreville.

      1. “did not result in better results”

        False. The team won 3 games with Gabbert compared to 2 games with Kaepernick. That is better results.

        1. Whatever you say Jack. If 3 wins, including two that were won due to FG misses by the other team, makes you feel better about Gabbert, then good for you.

          1. Don’t blame me for your false statements. And as I told DS94everSeb yesterday, try sticking to actual results. The if/then game is useless nonsense.

          2. I wonder if the ’91 Giants feel the same way about the Roger Craig fumble and the subsequent SB missed FG? Win is a win, right?

            1. EastCoast,

              Exactly. It’s a stupid argument given by some who for whatever reason need to disqualify certain events. It’s kind of odd.

            2. EC,

              The team was just as bad with Gabbert as it was with Kap. If Jack wants to point to one extra win as evidence that Gabbert is better that’s fine, but it flies in the face of every other statistical comparison between the two.

              Ultimately they were a bad team with both QB’s.

              1. The only stat that truly matters is W/L.

                In the 2012 NFCCG the Falcons beat the 49ers in almost every statistical category but lost.

                You said the team didn’t improve. That’s false. You are correct that it’s not a big improvement, but they still improved by a game.

              2. After reading my original post again I see where the problem in interpretation comes from.

                Gabbert’s play while statistically better than Kap’s last season, did not result in better results.<

                Really poorly worded sentence with multiple use of “results.” Obviously they won 1 more game with Gabbert starting. The point was the overall QB play wasn’t very good from either QB, and that the extra win under Gabbert was not indicative of him being a better QB. He played better than Kap at the time he was replaced, but his play wasn’t that good overall.

              3. Rocket,

                I really don’t have a dog in this fight. I think both our QBs are subpar and not by a little. I hope they both improve. A lot!

                Nevertheless, I think the team responds better to Gabbert for whatever reasons. It may be short term, but it did appear that way last year.

                I, for one, do not care how a W/L comes in I care about the final result (of course I do not want cheating or some underhanded win but you understand).

                I agree the team stinks and I hope this year we see some dramatic improvement on all fronts.

              4. EC,

                The players liked BG more than Kap as a person, but that doesn’t get it done on the field. It may have looked like things were better once he took over but overall there wasn’t much of a difference in the competiveness of the team. Gabbert played better than Kap, no question about it, but I think the perception is a lot more positive than it deserves to be. Kap was playing so poorly at the time of his benching anything was going to seem like a major improvement.

                I know what both of these QB’s are capable of. I’ve watched both of them long enough, and to me Gabbert is a decent backup QB. Kap may not even be that anymore if his play at the time of his benching is an indication of what’s to come, but he has produced at a much higher level in this league than BG, so imo he is the only one of the two that has the ability to be a difference maker at the position. If he’s not, then they have to draft somebody next year and start trying to find the long term answer.

                I don’t care how they get wins either, that wasn’t my point. The point was the offense wasn’t that good with Gabbert either, and that trying to paint Gabbert as the better of the two based on 8 games where neither one of them looked like a long term starter, was overlooking the overall resume. When you look at their pro careers there is no comparison. Is Gabbert better than a clearly demoralized Kap with no confidence? Yep. Has he shown that he’s a better pro QB than Kap? Nope. If I see him achieve the kind of success Kap has, then we can talk.

              5. Rocket,

                You get no argument from me that the team played dismally last year. I’m not entirely sure why the players respond to Gabbert, could be personal, though I suspect some of it has to do with his poise and his approach. Gabbert has not excelled, true and his credibility as a qb is low, though I think CK is not much greater, if at all better to tell you the truth. He always courted disaster, even during the best of times. I think the league figured him out and he has not been able to adjust.

                This alone does not bode well for Kelly or the team, but I do believe in miracles.

    5. Moses,

      That .611 is VERY misleading. Those winning seasons were very largely the work of another GM. The last 5 years of drafting by Bulky typically gets people fired after about 3 of them.
      In the mean time, we can talk about the offensive skill players, the play-makers on that side of the ball he’s brought in. Yeah, the coaching was the worst, but he’s had something to do with that, too.

        1. rocket,
          I believe that you know that I am a big CK7 fan. But let’s face it, Kap did not look right on the field last season. He seemed to lose all confidence in his game, the huddle, and the locker room.

          I believe that a player can be a complete A$$ and still have his teammates respect because he gets it done on the field of play. According to some reports Kap lost the locker room and his teammates confidence in him because of his poor play as well. That makes for a tough combination to overcome.

          These are two vital areas of CK’ TC time that he has to mend. Steve Young said last week that Kap “first” has to win his teammates over in TC. I tend to view it from a different angle; CK has to prove that he can still be the QB of the 49ers with his play. And the only way that happens is that he has to beat out Gabbert convincingly in TC leaving absolutely no doubt.

          The 2012-2013 CK would have been untouchable by any QB on the team. Gabbert would never even be in the conversion. But the fact that Gabbert is in the conversion and even looked upon as the potential starter speaks volumes (to me at least) of how much work CK has ahead.

          Would I like to see CK start this season? Yes, but only if he beats Gabbert in TC and regains some of his lost mojo.
          If he can’t beat out Gabbert, then Blaine is “the man!”

          1. I don’t disagree with what you said here AES, although I think Kap just has to be better to win the job. The Coaches know the history of both players and there is a lot more good film to watch of Kap than there is of Gabbert. I understand many around here are down on Kap, and I have my doubts that he’s going to rebound as well, but that’s a far cry from deeming Gabbert “The Man” as you say. There are only two ways this plays out imo: Kap rebounds and plays well in this system or Gabbert wins the job and they draft a QB in round 1 next year. I’d draft a QB with a high pick regardless, but at least if Kap plays well there is a viable option going forward and you don’t have to rush the young QB onto the field.

            1. “but at least if Kap plays well there is a viable option going forward and you don’t have to rush the young QB onto the field.”

              That could be said of Gabbert as well couldn’t it? The simple truth of recent past performance is that after last season Gabbert was on the upswing and Kap was on the downswing. If I was part of the coaching staff whose input mattered, I would rate them as mostly equal (with a bit of an edge to Gabbert simply because Kap is behind after OTAs) going into TC and let the best man win.

              1. That could be said of Gabbert as well couldn’t it? The simple truth of recent past performance is that after last season Gabbert was on the upswing and Kap was on the downswing. If I was part of the coaching staff whose input mattered, I would rate them as mostly equal (with a bit of an edge to Gabbert simply because Kap is behind after OTAs) going into TC and let the best man win.

                No because Kap playing well is a whole other level than Blaine Gabbert brings to the table. Kap was playing poorly by the time he was benched and Gabbert was better than that Kap, but Gabbert is not going to play much better than he did last year from what I’ve seen of him over his career from College to now. Your comment about Gabbert being on an upswing is an example of what I was referring to above as far as his play looking better than it really was because Kap was so bad at the time he was benched. Gabbert really didn’t play all that well. His Passer rating was lower than Kap’s from the previous season in which Kap was viewed as regressing, and his QBR was actually lower than Kap’s last year if you can believe that. He was a barely average level QB who didn’t make them much more competitive than Kap at his worst did. If Blaine Gabbert is your starting QB then you really don’t have one imo.

              2. I think some of the dissatisfaction with Kap goes beyond the numbers. I’ll point to two items:

                1) Four interceptions thrown in the Arizona game – two of which were returned for TDs. Tyrann said they knew exactly how to read Kap and they made him pay over and over again. You never heard anyone say that about Gabbert.

                2) Not seeing a wide open, uncovered T. Smith at the line of scrimmage.

                These types of plays made it seem as if he didn’t even belong on the field at that position, whereas you didn’t see that type of abysmal play from Gabbert (albeit, we didn’t see much great play either). IMO, Gabbert’s bad play did not approach incompetence whereas some of Kap’s bad play did.

                It seemed like Kap was so overwhelmed at times, he couldn’t see the forest for the trees. A mathematical analogy would be someone being so confused taking a calculus class that they forget 1 + 1 = 2.

                Having said all of that, I’m all for the best man winning. If Kap can resurrect his career that would be great.

              3. 1) Four interceptions thrown in the Arizona game – two of which were returned for TDs. Tyrann said they knew exactly how to read Kap and they made him pay over and over again. You never heard anyone say that about Gabbert.

                No, but prior to that game, Kap had a pretty good record against that defense so if they could read him that well they sure hadn’t shown it prior to the disaster of last season. Maybe they could read him in that offense is what Mathieu was getting at. Either way, Gabbert threw more picks than Kap during his 8 game run so any idea he was an upgrade in terms of protecting the football is a fallacy.

                2) Not seeing a wide open, uncovered T. Smith at the line of scrimmage.

                These types of plays made it seem as if he didn’t even belong on the field at that position, whereas you didn’t see that type of abysmal play from Gabbert (albeit, we didn’t see much great play either). IMO, Gabbert’s bad play did not approach incompetence whereas some of Kap’s bad play did.

                No argument with this. Kap was awful by the time he was replaced. You could see he didn’t trust himself or anybody else and his confidence was completely shot. Gabbert was a clear upgrade from that, but his play overall was average to below which is the underlying point here. Gabbert is not a starting QB in the NFL imo. Kap has shown that he was at one point, but now is playing like a guy who could be out of the league in a year or two. Kap at his best is a superior option to Gabbert at his best. That is the point. Whether Kap ever finds that level of play again is remote, but they aren’t going anywhere with Gabbert and his safety first mentality.

                It seemed like Kap was so overwhelmed at times, he couldn’t see the forest for the trees. A mathematical analogy would be someone being so confused taking a calculus class that they forget 1 + 1 = 2.

                Having said all of that, I’m all for the best man winning. If Kap can resurrect his career that would be great.

                He was and for a number of reasons I believe. First, the OL had been playing poorly since the middle of the previous season and I think eventually it got to him and he was feeling pressure whether it was there or not. Once a QB loses trust in his protection it’s over.

                The second problem and I don’t think this has been discussed enough, is that I think Kap’s time at the performance center in AZ hurt him more than it helped. I say this because he came back thinking instead of reacting. You could see from day one that he was trying to do things he wasn’t comfortable with in terms of touch on the football and deciphering what he was seeing. Over time it may have helped him become a better pocket passer, but the inital results were a disaster.

                I go back to 2014 as a clear turning point in his play. Harbaugh and Roman really tried to incorporate more of a spread passing game at the beginning of that season and Kap actually showed signs of improvement in it although there were some bumps along the way as well. The turning point was when Kilgore went down in Denver and the Oline play overall got progressively worse. There is a clear statistical decline in Kap’s play from that point on.

                At this point I really feel like the Niners need to start over at the position and draft somebody next year. If Kap regains some of his previous form that would be great, but they can’t rely on it. I don’t see Gabbert as anything more than a backup to whoever winds up as the long term starter.

  19. As stated by Moses and Seb, Kaep is not a pocket passer and cannot succeed forced into this role. Everyone should see this. My point is that when it’s 23-6 with 6 minuites to go, you aren’t going to be in 3 plays cloud of dust punt mode. In the NFL, to succeed and win, a team at many points must be able to go pocket w/protection and make downfield gains. 9ers team that falls behind as we can expect this one to have happen often, will be really screwed. What then, put Gabberts in at that point? It was said best earlier, 2-second stringers playing for 1st string job. 4 wins is generous is the net net.

  20. Not quite sure how last season relates to this season. The new coaching staff brings a different philosophy to the Niners. Its going to be completely different from anything we have ever seen in Niner land. Not only will the offense be remarkably different the defense will be too. There is no comparison from last year to this year. You can throw out everything from last year it has no bearing on this year whatsoever.

    1. I agree. Chip needs to be innovative and adaptable. He needs to shape the opponent and utilize his players to their maximum potential. He needs to accentuate their strengths and hide their weaknesses. He needs to have them focused, prepared and energized. He must make those quick in game adjustments that were maddeningly lacking last year.

      There is a new sheriff in town.

    1. No matter what happens (makes team, traded, released) its an improvement over the limbo fans have endured.

      Not predicting anything, but I’d love it if he came back rested and ready. A line of Staley, Garnett, Kilgore, Beadles, Davis sounds pretty good.

      If AD’s traded it would be better than nothing. Would have to be a conditional trade. Something like “If AD plays more than X 2016 games, the 2017 pick jumps a round. If he plays in 2017, another 2018 late rounder.”

    2. B2W,

      That’s great news. If Davis is serious he will help the Oline immensely. My fear is that he comes back looking to make money and milks an injury so he doesn’t have to play. Not that I care if the team has to pay him for not playing, but it means we would be relying on some pretty questionable options again.

      We can only hope that he is sincere in his intentions and wants to play. I’m not sure they would get much in trade at this point so I’d rather keep him and see if he can regain his previous form. He is a great run blocker and could be a difference maker in this type of system.

      1. Rocket

        Initially, that was a concern of mine also…but I believe that this is why Paraag gets paid the big bucks…any return to the team will have more conditions than a queens Pre-nup…burn me once shame on you…burn me twice…well, you know the rest….

      2. Agree. Don’t take any low ball offers for AD if he comes in (relatively) ready.

        I was questioning his sincerity about returning for months. When I saw the workout video last week it changed my mind (somewhat). Filing papers clearly tilts the needle towards returning to football.

        But I still think there’s a very small chance its more posturing. Something to do with the $3m in signing bonuses.

        It will be huge if he can play. The run game in 2014 was night and day when AD was on the field.

        1. I’m not sure who would want to trade for AD…..a gazillion questions until he puts some tape out there. Sight unseen, lowball offers would be understandable. Best value at the moment is SF, who have little to lose letting him compete, and have not much quality competition at RT.

          1. BT, I think the only kind of trade that might work is a conditional trade based on roster presence in 2016, 2017 and/or games activated.

            Likely the Stevie Smith trade, but reversed.

    3. If he can contribute then I am all for it. It could lead once again to a dominating line. By the way glad you are posting a little more frequently.

  21. Well I just saw that AD tweeted that he sent his papers to be reinstated. We will see how this turns out but I he is ready to contribute and play. If so welcome back!

      1. That’s what I thought UC. You’d have to think that could have a positive impact on the run D this year.

          1. Undercenter

            I almost feel guilty having the experience of watching both of them play together as ‘Ducks’. I’m sure that Azzinarro will find a way(s) to fit Dial, Williams, and Blair into one of the hard-nosed Run D this year….

            1. Oregon – It was fun when they were together, in fact the Ducks as a whole have been fun to watch for many years now!!! Looking forward to see how Azz puts this line together. Its going to be a fun and interesting season and with just a little bit of good QB play eh who knows.

    1. I think DeFo is a very good run defender, but the Niners will miss Williams next to him. He also needs to be better vs double teams.

      Down the road, Buckner will be one of the best run defending at his position in the NFL.

      1. B2W

        I haven’t heard any updates on Williams recovery….have you heard anything as to his return…or when ?

        1. OregonNiner – Have not heard specifics on Williams return. The 49ers are “opaque” as usual. Most of the chatter points to him returning post game one. Exactly when I’m not sure.

          Maybe one of Williams or Dorsey will surprise and be ready for game one. Would be huge, but I’m not counting on it.

          1. B2W

            Thanks…I’m thinking that you’re correct on the ‘surprise’…and it will be Williams…a second surprise might be waiving Dorsey..he’s always hurt

  22. Is there a shake up in SC? Tom Gamble named Assistant GM. Anyone have ideas on how this affects the team. Gotta be a vote of no confidence in Baalke, right?

    1. Tom was AsstGM @ Philly, and a positive bridge between CKelly and the FO. He’s a seasoned pro. I don’t think it’s necessarily ominous for Baalke. Baalke’s challenges are evident but not more imminent now than before; IMO.

        1. How did things go in Philadelphia for Kelly though? Something’s gotta give and Jed gave every indication last time he spoke that his confidence was with Kelly. Baalke, not so much.

          The hire may not mean much in the end BT, but it does send a bit of a signal internally and externally for sure.

          1. I think Gamble served in that capacity ever since he arrived in SF, and his performance warranted making it official….

          2. EC9
            It’s not really a hire, he was here and got a new title. Things went off the rails in Philly after Tom left. Chip’s personnel moves were head-scratchers, but now he’s just coaching. I think both Baalke and Kelly get two years.

    1. Baalke should be scared $h!tless. His job security is in the hands of Chip Kelly and Blaine Gabbert/Colin Kaepernick.

  23. Baalke may not make it to half-way point of the season, especially if his draft picks aren’t producing and if some don’t make it out of TC.

  24. Good. I knew that Baalke lost power when the first 2 picks were Chip Kelly preferences. Thank Goodness they did not draft Myles Jack or Jaylon Smith, even though they both had tremendous potential.

    Maybe Trent can stick to the numbers, and Gamble can take care of the personnel aspects.

    The AD news is such an amazing coincidence with the Gamble news.

  25. Razor – 3:53pm
    This what you’re looking for Scooter?

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/images/ALEX/ALEXWk17heat.JPG

    I wonder how long Alex’ leash will be this season. The KC, FO has to be thinking that with Payton’ retirement, this is the year they stake claim on the division. If “safe” Alex does not do his part in accomplishing this, Alex and Andy may be out in 2017.

    I know it’s hard to believe that a head coach with a perennial winning record could be axed, but try convincing Marty Schottenheimer of that.

    1. Alex Smith and Blaine Gabbert are the poster boys for throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down. Here are the numbers for 3rd and 10, in 2015:

      Pass thrown at or beyond sticks (positive ALEX): 115/255 (45.1% conversions)
      Pass thrown behind the line of scrimmage: 8/45 (17.8% conversions)
      Pass thrown 1-9 yards (negative ALEX): 39/206 (18.9% conversions)

      1. “poster boys for throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down.”

        As I outlined above, this should be amended to be “poster boys for throwing short of the sticks on 3rd and long”. Gabbert had no such issues on 3rd and short and 3rd and medium. In fact he was ahead of Kaep in terms of throwing past the marker at these distances.

        1. As I stated to your earlier outline, when you have to hide your quarterback on 3rd and 10, there’s 24 other quarterbacks in the league that can fill that role. Also, as you can see above, the chances of successfully getting a first down more than double when throwing at or beyond the sticks on 3rd and 10….

          1. How are the 49ers acquiring one of these said 24 QBs?

            Sure seems like Kaep was being hidden too. Was it the QB, or the coaches?

            1. Or perhaps even another factor – the OLs inability to hold up the pass rush consistently enough to give the QB confidence in their ability to sit in the pocket and wait for longer routes to develop?

              1. Certain quarterbacks rank very high and very low in ALEX every year. It just so happens Alex Smith and Blaine Gabbert are in the very low category. I find it interesting that Michael Vick led the league in ALEX under Andy Reid, in 2010. He could be one of the 24. I’m not going to list 23 more. Use your imagination….

              2. Razor,

                Are you advocating the team pick up a FA QB at this stage? Both QBs will likely improve under Kelly. They won’t knock anyone’s socks off though and that’s the dilemma. Both have grave deficits in their game that relegate their football careers to backups not All Pro starters.

      2. If Gabbert can play at the same level as the 2011-2012 version of Alex Smith I think everyone should be ecstatic.

        1. Jack, while I agree that Smith-level play is definitely something to be missed as of late, there’s no way we can expect to have near the level of team success with that kind of limited pass game. Smith had a stacked top 5 defense backing him up.

          1. Sure you can. Limit turnovers. Move the sticks.

            Help the defense by not putting them in difficult positions with short fields, etc.

      3. Razor

        What you need is about 5 or 6 more statistics to prove your point….What’s wrong with attempts…completions…ints…and drops…?

          1. Don’t board the train until you know what to expect around the bend. It’s seems everyone is on board the Blaine Train, but I’d like to see him earn it first, before getting my ticketed punched. May the best man win!

            1. Grant’s not on the Blaine Train. I have some of the same questions he does about what happens when the pressure comes. If he’s the starter and things aren’t going well and we’re 1-3 or 0-4 in the first four games how does he look then? Does he still have the locker room? Do people still like him? When he throws tons to the RB’s and the WR’s start complaining, how does he handle that? The expectations were so low for him last year he couldn’t do any worse that what people expected. This year people are pumping him up so he’s not surprising anyone unless by some miracle Kelly turns him into Foles. My friend often says the difference between expectation and reality is disappointment.

              I don’t buy that all of sudden he’s going to produce something he’s never shown at this level. Rocket said it, his best was better than CK’s worst, big deal. I don’t think he’ll reach Alex Smith levels of play.

              1. Wilson,
                I dont think many people are on the Blaine train. The reality is they are thinking he is the better option between two crappy qb’s. If Kaep regains his confidence he is the better qb, but that is a big if… last year he was so scared of throwing picks that he was alternating between hitting ballboys and moles. This made it impossible for the offense to establish any rhythm and obviously angered some wr’s.
                If he is able to regain his confidence he should be the better option but that is a big if…
                Talent wise they are not as far apart as many think. Kaep, is faster and has a bigger arm. Blaine has more wiggle and appears to be faster at processing information. Neither are incredibly accurate. Kaep is better at throwing seam routes but sucks at fades, Gabbert has more touch but is not good at or doesn’t trust himself to drive the ball down the field.
                They are two backups competing for a starting role.

              2. shoupbj, Razor was the one stating “everyone is on the Blaine train” not me. I think there are a few people who are pushing expectations for Blaine too high. At this point its fine to have the opinion that Blaine is better at this point. I don’t agree that he’s a better option, its my opinion. Honestly no one knows who the better QB is for Kelly at this point. The BG supporters point to his slightly better play than CK last year in the same system. The CK supporters point to his better play in the previous 3 seasons and BG’s awful time in Jacksonville.

                I am not convinced that BG starting will last very long especially if we’re losing. Its a whole different thing to come in off the bench and just need to be better than the guy in front of you who was terrible last season. Lets see if he can handle the pressure.

              3. Grime, I respect Alex’s work. He would have been annihilated last season here as well. It would have been reminiscent of his first 4 seasons with the 49ers. As Jack points out his 31 wins would be great, but like when he won here there’s a great defense and running game on that team. I am not sure we have either. We have the potential for a good running game with Kelly. Either QB we have would really need those things to win as well.

  26. Preacher took a bit of a step backward with a couple of it’s characters this week.

    Given the source material and that it’s in it’s first season there is some unevenness to be expected so I’m not going to be too critical at this point.

    Really hoping the finale this weekend is solid.

    1. CFC, have you checked out any of the Shannara Chronicles? When I was a kid, I read the three main books that Terry Brooks had written back in the day. The Sword of Shannara, The Elfstones of Shannara and The Wishsong of Shannara. Although the show took some liberties with the story, I found it to be quite nicely done, especially the casting. I have to admit I’ve fallen in love with the actress who plays the rover, Eretria. Ivana Baquero, she’s a beautiful woman!

        1. Sorry to hear that Scooter, but certainly not underwhelmed by Ivana Baquero, right? My son and I watched one episode and then couldn’t stop watching until we finished. Looking forward to next season….

              1. It took me awhile to get used to Manu Bennett playing the role of Allanon, after years of watching him in Spartacus, as Crixus. Big fan!

  27. I was surprised to read this morning that Tom Jackson is out at ESPN. Tom and Boomer forged a presentation style that was very appealing to me. Boomer can be entertaining (both ESPN and NFL are in the entertainment bidnez) and due to my age I enjoyed Boomer’s musical references. But there are plenty of entertainers around. Tom Jackson is a no b.s., old school tough guy with real credibility. In a tv world of corporate wonks and media posers, TJ provided balance. He was an early voice among the old guard of NFL vets to scoff at the blind machismo and call for new thinking about brain injuries and spinal cord injuries. I’ll miss his work. ESPN just got more Disney and less legit in my view.

    1. Yea, I really like Tom Jackson and was a big fan of his “Jacked Up” segment, which they proceeded to do away with. I suspect the PC Police had something to do with it….

      1. ESPN – Entertainers Specifically Pandering to Nonsense.

        The network is almost unwatchable. And it has been for several years. Sorry to see Tom Jackson go. Always liked him.

    2. Too bad about Jackson he brought an element to ESPN that will be sorely missed. Hard nosed football player that took no prisoners.

    3. Just par for the course at the world wide leader these days. They are not renewing the contracts of some of the higher priced talent and replacing them with other options. I’m not sure if Jackson was pushed out or wanted out, but they’ve now cleaned out everybody except Berman and he is likely gone after this season. Berman has a lot of critics, but I like him. He developed his own style and has always been fun to watch.

  28. 49er new OC, Curtis Modkins, tells one all–a career based on the run game only. Grant’s correct. This season is a Baalke wet dream–hire the guy from Oregon who runs more than any coach.

    NFL rule changes favoring the forward pass to run up scores and, therefore, NFL profits, dictate otherwise…Consider these facts by Althon Sports, 2016 Fantasy Football Addition:

    “The league has become increasingly pass happy. In 2005 the league boasted two 4,ooo yd passers-Tom Brady and Trent Greeen. Last season 12 QB’s went for 4000 yds. +, with eleven throwing for more than 30 TD’s. Pass Atts. were up 11% and TD’s have surged dramatically, up 31%.

    Facing teams who have studied Baalke’s M/O, ie–no threatening WR’s or QB’s, what does a defense focus upon–the run game. Take it away and win.

    And due to insuffiecient offensive knowledge in drafting the above, missing on OL picks, even the run game is suspect…Consider this from Lindy’s Fantasy Football, 2016:

    Scout # 1: Joshua Garnett is “a little stiff–like Mike Iupati” ( a poor pass blocker).

    Scout # 3: He (Garnett) doesn’t move very well–just upper body strength similar to another guy from Stanford a couple of years ago–David Yankey who was a bust.

    From Althon’s Fantasy Football: 49ers surprise move trading up for Garnett, who was not considered a 1st rd. talent.

    So this does not bode well for 2016 or Trent Baalke….tomD

    1. *Forgot to add that PI calls, obviously are up with most teams passing to take advantage of tax shelters (I mean pass shelters) except Baalke.

      Anytime Bill Walsh of the dynasty 49ers (who kept current with NFL rule changes, considering it an opportunity) learned of a rule change, you could be sure he would capitalize on it with a new play designed for it.

      Not Baalke, his QB’s can be backed up on the 1 yd. line with their fastet WR uncovered, jumping up and down for the ball, and a Baalke team will still run.

      NFL personnel have also stated often that some of those PI calls are so ticky- tack they wonder if the calls are intentional, to increase scoring, and therefore, fan viewership/profits.

      Why Baalke has not taken advantage of rule changes is a mystery. His run game infatuation will be his downfall, as the NFL has passed him and Chip by.

  29. Albert Breer Verified account 
    ‏@AlbertBreer
    The 49ers have promoted Tom Gamble to assistant general manager. Significant, b/c that’s Chip Kelly’s guy.

    “It’s a real threat because, well, Baalke is already on the hot seat entering 2016. We can talk all we want about drafting too many ACL-injured players, too many defensive backs or whatever. And a reasonable assessment would lead us to believe Baalke’s recent draft strategies have left a lot to be desired.”

    Gamble has helped build a total of 12 playoff teams, according to the Niners’ website, so it’s easy to see why the 49ers promoted him.

    Gamble most recently served as the team’s director of player personnel before a two-year stint with the Philadelphia Eagles between 2013 and 2014.

    Oh, and Gamble served under then-Eagles head coach Chip Kelly.
    http://ninernoise.com/2016/07/26/san-francisco-49ers-promoting-tom-gamble-to-assistant-gm-puts-pressure-on-trent-baalke/

  30. Bryce Treggs: Why 49ers Receiver Will Thrive in Training Camp:

    –Bryce Treggs is familiar with head coach Chip Kelly – before he started his college career he was recruited by Kelly to join him at the University of Oregon.

    –his senior season last year was his best — in 13 games he had 45 catches, 956 receiving yards (at a whopping 21.2 yards per catch) .

    –At his California pro day, Treggs ran an impressive 4.38 40-yard dash. At 6-foot-0 and 185 pounds, he is by no means a “midget receiver”.

    –•he has good hands and runs routes well
    •he has the deep speed to run by people
    •he can make the tough catch in traffic

    The 49ers offense, which is set to be run at speed, will be admirably served by another weapon to complement No. 1 receiver Torrey Smith.

    –The 49ers could do with another fast slot receiver. Ellington is the likely man to start there, but with his injury history, an opening could soon develop. This opening could be served by Treggs, who with his traits could be the perfect fit for the Kelly offense.

    –When you add in the familiarity, this puts him ahead of another camp receiver, DeAndrew White, according to the Press Democrat’s Grant Cohn:

    The Niners recently signed Treggs as an undrafted free agent. He’s competing with DeAndrew White, an undrafted rookie from 2015, to back up Bruce Ellington in the slot.

    Given Kelly’s familiarity with the former Cal receiver, Treggs could beat out White for a roster spot. And given Ellington’s pattern of pulling muscles, Treggs could become the Niners’ starting slot receiver by midseason.

    http://ninernoise.com/2016/07/25/bryce-treggs-why-49ers-receiver-will-thrive-in-training-camp/

    1. Add Bryce Treggs to the mix of Cajuste (TE/H-Back), Torrey Smith, and Eric Rogers and suddenly you have some major speed and actual threats.

      1. That’s how I see it as well. Looks a lot better than it did a couple of days ago. That Oline could actually be a top half unit when it’s all said and done.

        1. Really depends on where Davis is at in terms of readiness to play football. If he’s dropped a lot of weight, or isn’t fit, good chance he’ll struggle.

          1. I agree, Scooter. Davis has been out of football for just over a year, and I expect him to struggle out of the gate. Perhaps by the bye, he’ll begin to round into shape and performance….

      2. Jack,
        I think Tiller will push Beadles and I still believe that by the end of camp Brown could beat out Davis. Either way I think there will be great competition for spots along the O line.

        1. It’s concerning to me that Brown came in out of shape. As a 6th round pick, with an opportunity to take ownership of the starting RT position, I expected a motivated mindset that was apparent by his superior conditioning. He’s got time, but he didn’t do himself any favors and he adversely affected the expectations of the coaching staff….

          1. Baalke losing power just made Beadles vulnerable. Like Devey last year, Beadles will not play just because Baalke wants him to play.

            Tiller is solid. Played well last year at RG and showed his versatility by switching to LG when Boone went down.

            Putting the rookie next to Staley just makes sense. I would be happy to have Tiller and AD on the right. That combo is light years better than Devey Pears. Hope Pears gets traded away.

            Now, if only Hayne comes back……

          2. Razor

            Have you actually seen Trent Brown to know that he’s out of shape.? Or is this another out of the rumor mill by some of the usual ‘experts’ ? He was obviously out of shape when he arrived, but I’d guess that the last year has knocked off a lot of that ‘Baby fat’……Anyone know ?

            1. Ory-
              Matt M and Matt Barrows both reported that T.Brown’s conditioning was a problem in Minnies and OTAs here in 2016. It’s not a fatal flaw, but obviously in Chip’s offensive style, not a good thing. Remember Walsh vs Bubba Paris? If AD has his mind right, that would help.
              You’re right about rumor mills, and prevailing wisdom often runs 12 months behind reality.
              Here’s one from a military philosopher not named Sun-tzue:
              Generals plan elaborate schemes to win the previous war.

  31. San Francisco 49ers: Is Chip Kelly Just Keeping The Seat Warm?
    by Kevin Saito hours ago Follow @Kevin_Saito

    Could the 49ers be waiting for a their dynast coaches to become available have hired Kelly, knowing full well Clemson’s QB will be their for them when said coach also is a free agent.?

    “After all, Carroll helped build Seattle into a perennial power and with San Francisco seemingly adrift at sea with little to no direction, he could help bring the organization back to solid footing again.

    Which brings us back to Kelly. If the 49ers get off to a terrible start (something many believe is possible, if not likely) are not able to improve upon last year’s five win season – or even worse, regress – many believe that Kelly will be sacrificed in the same way Tomsula was. “

    1. No way the Yorks are going to pay 3 HC’s next year. Kelly is here for minimum 3 years imo. If they play poorly during that time Baalke will get the axe first.

      1. Good point Rocket.

        However, if 49er fans exit the stadium early the last 5 games of the season as they did last year, to the emabarrassment of the NFL the York’s will need to keep their hot dogs from rotting.

      2. Totally agree rocket, though if the season is so bad that fans start calling for heads there may need to be an additional change. I only expect that if the absolute worst occurs though.

  32. Rosenhaus: Anthony Davis’ relationship with 49ers repaired – Maiocco
    http://www.csnbayarea.com/49ers/rosenhaus-anthony-davis-relationship-49ers-repaired

    Drew Rosenhaus…
    – “I’m confident that Anthony is ready to go to work with the 49ers and resume his career with them,”
    – “…the impression I have is that from all my discussions with them (the 49ers), they’d be excited to get Anthony back. And Anthony would be happy to work with them again.”
    – “Hopefully that (reinstatement) happens before the 49ers report to training camp on Saturday”
    – “Whatever damage took place, in my estimation, it has been repaired”

    I was totally wrong on the possibility of AD returning. If he’s back (and relatively ready to play) it will be huge. AD and a healthy Hyde would transform the offense.

  33. Look for the 49ers to resolve their NT issues using a rotational scheme that could involve Alabama run stuffer, Darren Lake.

  34. SeAdderal just extended Pete Carrrol. The (PNCGA) Pacific Northwest Chewing Gum Association will celebrate with a Champaign gala atop the Space Needle this Saturday.

    1. b2w

      Why is it that we can’t put out an announcement like that ?

      With the niners, it’s some kind of James Bond and even then it’s screwed up….

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