Should the 49ers sign Michael Bennett?

According to Adam Schefter, Michael Bennett will become a free agent next week. Do  you think the 49ers should sign him?

If the Niners did sign Bennett, he would replace Ray McDonald as a defensive tackle on the 49ers’ Nickel defense. Last season, McDonald had 5 sacks, 3 QB hits and 30 hurries in 807 snaps. Bennett had 11 sacks, 17 QB hits and 51 hurries in 759 snaps.

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  1. Bennett was impressive, but was it due to scheme, a better secondary, or better ability? I can’t answer that. What do you think?

      1. Only 10 pound difference between him and The Cowboy. I doubt it’s serious, and any activity is probably intended to help drive up the price tag….

        1. Even JS is a bit on the lighter side for a 3-4 DE and he gets away with it because of his overwhelming talent. Maybe Bennett is good but he’s no Justin Smith and he’s ten pounds lighter.

          1. Bryant Young was 290, Ray McDonald is 290. Maybe they need to start eating more, I don’t know. Justin Smiths’ strength is his biggest asset, and you’re right, Bennett knows next to nothing about ranch work….

            1. Those weights are according to who razor? I’ve read that Cowboy and McDonald are above 300lbs these days, and when you see them they look around that mark.

              They look bigger than Bennett.

              1. I’ve always seen Cowboys weight listed as 285. Not saying that’s what he actually he is but I’ve never seen him listed higher then that.

          1. it’s different Grant. There are plenty of articles that detail Seattle’s defense. Seattle plays a 4-3 Under alignment that mixes in one and two gap principles. The Niners do too but I believe the Left Defensive End 2 gaps more often in Seattle’s scheme. The Niners 3-4 scheme will alternate who 2 gaps but it’s usually the Nose and Right Defensive End except when they read or expect a pass.

          2. different gap responsibilities by the front 7. different coverage/rush responsibilities by the outside linebackers. there are no “stand up defensive ends” in the Niner’s base 3-4 scheme.

      1. Grant, which side of the line did Bennett line up? I thought Red Bryant played the 5-tech role on most downs for the Seahawks, which is what McDonald usually plays.

    1. Bennett fits best as a situational pass rusher. since most of the pass rush comes from the 4 man nickel line, he could line up at any of the spots. But he going to get a chuck of change in free agency and that’s probably more than the Niners want to pay for a part time player. But then again, I suppose it depends on how they assess their overall pass rush. Does the defense benefit enough by plugging Bennett in for McDonald or Brooks…what if Justin Smith slows down? Are Carradine, Skuta and Lemonier good enough depth?

    1. I actually think Bennet looks to be a better fit as a back up to Justin Smith in the base defense. Sort of hedging their bets if Carradine isn’t ready. In the Nickel, he could rotate in for whomever needs a break at any of the 4 down line positions. But yeah, McDonald looks like the leading candidate to be replaced at this point unless he bounces back.

      1. Dwight Clark and “the need to copy cat your rival” like Green Bay at the time amounted to that very forgetable acquisition. A pattern I hope the FO doesn’t emulate.

        1. A very good point Jimmy. Which is why I shake my head when people talk about signing Brandon Browner or drafting a CB like Browner. Doesn’t fit the 49ers style; its trying to emulate the Seahawks. The 49ers D is pretty darn good as it is thanks, lets stick to taking players that fit the system.

            1. Does that mean the 49ers should get Fangio to scratch his system which is working and install a different system?

              1. I wouldn’t advise it at this time. I loved what he did with that goal line move. Imaginative and effective. If he were to leave, I would work towards that type of defense, yes. I believe Pete said it took 3 years to get the personnel needed….

              2. There are going to be a number of teams running a knock off version of the Seahawks D in coming years. Just wait and see what happens when they realise how hard it is to find a Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, while also having an excellent pass rush.

                Really big CBs are going to be taken earlier than ever. But unless they are physical specimens with good speed and agility they need to be in a D that plays press-man, ideally with a lock down CB on one side (Sherman’s are hard to find), a FS with exceptional range like Earl Thomas putting fear into QBs on deep routes if your big CBs gets beat at the line, as well as a pass rush giving the QB limited time to wait for the receivers to beat press coverage. That’s a lot of factors you need in place for the D to be effective.

                What’s more, as teams start adopting this style of D, the same types of players the Seahawks have been taking will start going in earlier rounds. It will be hard to maintain a strong roster playing that D over the long term as more teams adopt it. Similar to what happened with the Steelers as more teams started switching to 3-4.

              3. I always admired Seiferts’ defensive scheme, and if you want to maintain your roster, you’d better know a thing or two about it and you better be able to target the personnel in the draft and F/A better than your competitors….

              4. Definitely, but that is harder to do when other teams are targeting the same type of players in a limited pool. The Steelers used to routinely take undersized DEs in mid and late rounds and convert them to OLB, and take long, run-stuffing DTs that nobody wanted in late rounds and convert them to DE. Can’t do that with the same kind of success any more because a lot of other teams are doing the same thing. The guys that are any good are going early.

  2. He might be able to take over for JS when he retires. A year on the line learning our way and then he could be the man.

  3. He said “this ain costco” when asked if he was going to give the hawks a hometown discount. PFF wrote that “he bet on himself like his brother martelus and now stands to cash in big on that bet” So unless we are ready to pony up the dough (something that we have not done on outside free agents since the harbalke regime) he will be going elsewhere. But i am in favor of staying in the talks to drive the price up a bit.
    Also wasnt tank carradine supposed to be a heir apparent to Ray and cowboy?

  4. When asked why should the 49ers sign Kaepernick as opposed to waiting, Matt Maiocco responded, “With the expected increase in the salary cap next year, the franchise number will be, according to former agent Joel Corry, $18.31 million in 2015. That means the next year it would be $22 million”. “Also, do you want to let your QB of the future dangle for another season”? –Matt M.

    1. $18.31 million < $20 million.

      Yes, let Kaepernick dangle. He has started just 29 games and has not demonstrated the qualities a QB needs to be great — having no holes, and elevating the talent of other players. It would be insane to make him one of the top-five highest paid QBs in the league right now.

            1. Grant i asked a couple of times yesterday but never got an answer. Do you think the 9er will sign CK to an extension this off season? If you do how much do you think the deal will be for?

              1. I’m not sold on whether they should but from all i read i think they will for 18-20 mill.

              2. I’m not privy to why the team will sign him. Reading all of the reports it seems like it will happen. A number of sources i’ve read have said it makes cap sense, whether it does or not i do’nt have a clue but i will say Paarag Marath [sp?] seems to do a great job with capology.

              3. Grant,

                Answer me this question:

                How bad would Kap have to play next season for them not to sign him to a long term deal, and what are the chances of that happening?

              4. We already know his demands if the reports are accurate. He’s going to be asking for more next year, but right now it’s 18-20 mill based on what has been reported.

                What do you need to see him accomplish to make you feel he’s worthy of the money you don’t think he’s worthy of right now?

                IWhat numbers does he have to put up for him to be worthy of the big deal?

              5. He needs to improve his weaknesses and elevate talent around him.

                His weakness’ have not stopped him from winning games, nor have they kept him from being top ten ranked QB.

                What exactly do you mean by elevating the talent around him?

              6. He plays for the most talented team in football. You’re saying he has no significant weaknesses?

                Elevating talent means making other players better. I’d like to see how Kaepernick would do if he had to throw to Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. Russell Wilson had a 114.8 rating throwing to Kearse and a 121.4 rating throwing to Baldwin last season.

              7. So Kaepernick isn’t a perfect passer. He is what he is. He still statically stacks up as a good passer.

                So I’ll ask you again Grant, what’s Kaepernick worth right now and why? Or are you holding out for an elite QB? In 2015, should the Niners just start over? Elite QB or bust?

              8. He plays for the most talented team in football. You’re saying he has no significant weaknesses?

                I didn’t say that at all. I said he succeeds despite the weakness’. It’s one thing to talk about his footwork needing to improve or his completion percentage needing to be better, but at the end of the day that hasn’t stopped him from winning. The most talented team in football had two capable receiving targets for most of the season. When the 3rd one returned the passing game looked a whole lot better. Coincidence? I think not.

                Elevating talent means making other players better. I’d like to see how Kaepernick would do if he had to throw to Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. Russell Wilson had a 114.8 rating throwing to Kearse and a 121.4 rating throwing to Baldwin last season

                I think he’d do just fine. Wilson isn’t elevating anybody. He plays in an offense similar to Kap and puts up similar numbers. Baldwin just got tendered with a second round designation so the team obviously doesn’t agree with your assessment that Wilson made him better. He’s just a good player in general. I don’t think Wilson was doing much elevating when he was throwing for 100 yards during the final few games of the season. You aren’t consistent with the criticism Grant.

                That’s why I asked you what you meant by elevating other players. Kap throws the ball less than anybody in this league. The passing game is secondary in this offensive system. We’ve seen what he can do when they rely on him to be the offense, and he’s excelled in those situations. He was the offense against GB and Seattle.

                Look at Manning in the SB. He couldn’t elevate anything and looked pathetic against Seattle. It’s a team game and too often I’m reading people who act as if it’s the QB against the defense or at least in regards to discussing Kap.

              9. Kaepernick’s horrible red zone play prevented the 49ers from beating the Ravens in the Super Bowl and the Seahawks in the NFC Championship. The 49ers’s red zone offense got worse last season after Crabtree returned.

                Baldwin and Kearse were undrafted free agents.

              10. The Redzone issues are not all on Kaepernick Grant. Play calling is a big issue as well and even then weren’t you and Jack going on about how much better the Redzone offense was at one point this past season? I’m pretty sure Kap was just running the plays that were called in the SB too.

                Who cares where Baldwin and Kearse were or weren’t drafted. They are playing and getting open. Wilson isn’t making them better. He’s not calling the plays or running the routes. Baldwin, Kearse and Tate were a hell of a lot better than Boldin and occupant were for the Niners for the first 11 games.

              11. Of course Wilson is making them better. Not many many QBs would have a 114 rating targeting Kearse, the undrafted rookie.

                Kaepernick’s inaccuracy, lack of touch and lack of anticipation hurt him big time in the red zone.

              12. They scored 1.8 Red Zone touchdowns per game, the same as Seattle according to TR. They also scored the 3rd most touchdowns in the Red Zone with 37, only Denver and New England scored more according to PFR….

              13. Kaepernick’s rating was 54 inside the opponent’s ten. Only Matt Cassel was worse. The Niners are good at running the ball in from a couple of yards out, though.

              14. 54 rating is astonishingly bad. A great QB doesn’t have a weakness that is that weak.

              15. Thanks Razor that’s what I thought and I remember these guys talking about how much better the Redzone offense was when I was talking about my concerns with the playcalling earlier in the season.

                Grant you are reaching so bad. Who cares what his rating is inside the Redzone if they are scoring? You do realize that he throws the ball away on orders from the HC quite frequently just as Alex Smith did? They don’t take chances in the Redzone and the playcalling is conservative most of the time. Stop blaming Kap for everything.

                And again, it doesn’t matter where Kearse was or wasn’t drafted. He made some big plays this year by getting open. Wilson’s numbers weren’t much better than Kaps and he had a much better cast to play with for most of the season.

              16. So you’re disputing the concept that a QB can elevate talent. Good luck with that one. Wilson and Kearse is the perfect example.

              17. There’s 3 things the 49ers need to improve upon to be golden in the Red Zone:

                Go for it more on 4th downs. Harbaugh
                Limit Turnovers. Kaepernick/Gore
                Vary your play calls. Roman

              18. 54 rating is astonishingly bad. A great QB doesn’t have a weakness that is that weak.

                That rating would change dramatically with one more TD or one less int. Rating is volatile and doesn’t account for the game situation. If Kap throws the ball away because nobody is open, then it knocks his rating down.

                The bottom line when it comes to the Redzone is scoring, preferably TD’s, but most of all coming away with points. The Niners play conservatively in the Redzone, and I know you know this because it’s been a topic of discussion in the past. 3rd most TD’s scored in the Redzone. Who cares what the rating is as long as you score?

              19. rocket,

                You need to take a break. Grant never said the red zone performance was ok.

                That was me.

                And I have never used that as a reason for not giving Kaepernick a new deal this season.

              20. So you’re disputing the concept that a QB can elevate talent. Good luck with that one. Wilson and Kearse is the perfect example.

                The best QB’s can make plays when given the chance. There isn’t a QB in this league who wins if his team is getting it’s collective asses kicked on the Oline or receivers are getting mugged by DB’s. This idea that a QB makes those around him better is a joke. He plays well if they play well and vice versa. That’s why Tom Brady’s numbers go down when he doesn’t have Wes Welker, or why Peyton Manning looks like an old man when he has to hold the ball because his receivers aren’t getting open.

                Russell Wilson benefits from a simple passing scheme that is predominantly built on quick slants and play action. His receivers are much better than you give them credit for and are pretty good route runners. He also has a great running game which makes that play action better. He’s a talented guy but he’s no better than Kap, and certainly isn’t making those around him better. If you want to give that title to somebody give it to Marshawn Lynch.

              21. Grant you’re a joke, I can’t believe you are covering the niners honestly. Most of your posts are just criticizing our players and coming up with bogus crap like would we chase after Bennett? I don’t think the niners front office is obsessed with Seattle’s players like you are. They’re going to pay Kap big money and he deserves it. He still has a lot to improve on but only playing 1.5 seasons worth of games he has shown enough to be an elite QB already.

              22. I’m pretty sure Grant commented on the Redzone offense earlier in the year, and take your own break. I didn’t ask for your opinion.

              23. “I didn’t ask for your opinion.”

                LOL! It’s an open forum, not a private chat room.

              24. He knows that Razor and it’s obviously the context in which he said it I take offense too.

              25. More than one report stating the obvious. It pains you to acknowledge they are negotiating, why?

              26. How do you know they’re negotiating? How do you know the 49ers didn’t present a number and will not budge? That’s how they negotiated with Dashon Goldson and ever other FA.

              27. I thought you said only an insane individual would offer Kaepernick a number? A number for a franchise quarterback is set. That is the number. Have the 49ers determined Kaepernick is their franchise quarterback? From what I hear, they have….

              28. Mar 4

                Both sides are interested in doing an extension now and have begun talking. But there is no timeline set. It has been widely discussed that the last big quarterback deal signed will be the starting point of discussion. Chicago’s Jay Cutler signed a seven-year, $126 million deal in January. It is team friendly and the Bears can get out of it after three years.

                I think Cutler’s deal is comparable to what Kaepernick will be looking for (and for what he will get) in terms of yearly average. Kaepernick will likely command, at least, $18 million a year. Unlike Cutler (who has been inconsistent and who turns 31 in April), Kaepernick is just 26 and he is a proven winner. He is 21-8 as an NFL starter and has played in two NFC title games and a Super Bowl already.

                I suspect that when Kaepernick’s deal is completed he will have earned much more real money than Cutler. ~Bill Williamson

              29. Grant, I don’t know what your definition of negotiating is, but it sure sounds as if their not just having a meal in public…..Ha!

              30. Grant, I hate to rub it in, and your little buddy too, but :

                Bay Area sports columnist Tim Kawakami is reporting a source told him negotiations are off to a “solid start”, although there is still plenty of work to be done.

                What’s that word? Negotiations…..

      1. what’s the alternative? btw. i emailed your dad in response to his article about Kaepernick’s contract and cc you. i gave my objective reasoning and proposed a contract.

      2. You sound like your father!!!!! Get over it. At least your not bashing him. IS he worth 20 million. Heck no. If niners are stupid enuf to give it to him then they have to deal with the consequences. Considering a 145 mil cap in 2105 and 160 by 2015 they can sign crabtreem, upati and whoever else they want in the near future. Money will not be an issue.

      3. We’re one of top 5 teams in the league (actually right behind Seattle) and our QB with holes helped get us there.

        I’m not thrilled with CK’s starting price but putting himself in the Romo and Ryan money range is a smart move because now the org is forced to use high paid QB’s with little to no return investment in the playoffs.
        CK has set a nice template for himself. Now we’ll just to see who blinks first or dangles the longest.

              1. When you enter a discussion with those kind of numbers, I’d say a meeting anywhere, anyplace, is serious….

    1. Excluding the eighth reason, that list has most of the points many on here have referenced as to why the team should let him play out his rookie contract.

  5. Smoke and mirrors the Niners are not going to sign him , Grant what are the chances Niners sign Brandon Browner ?

  6. Grant, like you I don’t think the 49ers should sign Kaep to an 18-20 mil/year deal but I disagree with you on why. I do think Kaep is a good QB that will be much better this coming year and years to come. He is a franchise QB and will get paid franchise QB numbers whether he is at the level of Rogers and Brees or not. Imagine how much Rogers would get paid if he were a FA this year or next. My guess is 25 mil/year for him. The reason why I think they should wait is that franchise QBs make about $18 million and Kaep makes less than $1 mill. The 49ers are safe from paying him that much money for only one more year. All the money they save this year can be roled into next years Kaep for deals for Aldon and others. If they wait and he plays great then sweet, pay him $20 mil and we are all happy. If he plays less than up to what they expect then they can work out a contract for even less and we are happy they didn’t sign him long term.

  7. Hopefully the 49ers are just uping the cost for Bennett so the Seahawks pay him more than what they want to. More money to him means less to Thomas, Sherman and Wilson.

  8. Wouldn’t make much sense unless they believe Carradine and Dial are not healing well. They have enough depth on the D-line right now.

  9. Just heard your Dad on CSN address his comments on Kaepernick. I thought it was classy and well explained.
    The thing I don’t understand is why if he wins a SB he gets 20 million. Should it not be on how he develops, how he handles adversity (playing in Seattle) and how he leads the team overall? That to me is paying a guy you believe in for years to come, not a Flacco type of scenario where he got hot, won a SB and now is still an average QB. I would hate to see a big contract be given placed on winning a championship alone. Point being, the defense plays out of its mind like it did in 2011 and they win with Kaepernick not showing a growth professionally.

    1. FDM according to M. Barrows if the 9ers sign him now market value for a franchise QB [ Barrows believes the 9ers see CK as a franchise QB] is about 20 mill. If they wait untill next year market valu for a franchise QB will have gone up at least 4 mill. So signing him now is a great move for the long term cap. It all comes down to whether or not the team considers CK a “franchise QB”

      1. If you consider the yearly increase to the salary cap Coach, the 4 million will pan out to the same as % against the cap as signing him now. And if Jerry Jones keeps overspending, I’m sure you see the CAP go even higher than predicted again next season.

    2. What makes me shake my head is that if Kap had thrown that TD to Crabtree and they had won the SB, there would be no discussion right now. Everybody would be on board with signing him long term because he won a SB. So one 4th down play he didn’t make is the difference between deserving the big deal and not for some people on here..

      Makes no sense to me especially when he came back and led them to the NFCCG a year later when most runner up SB teams go into a tail spin.

      1. All good points Rocket but my guess is the 49ers are concerned with his development, his off field persona, his inability to read defenses.
        You cant just throw out a 20 million dollar contract because he did or did not make the game winning throw. Its looking at his entire body of work and right now that’s only 29 games. No one knows what he really is because although he has shown glimpses of greatness, he has also shown glimpses of major doubt.

        1. FDM,

          I don’t think the 49ers are concerned about his development at all. It’s people on here that are fixated on his footwork and the belief he can’t go through progressions or read defenses, even though they have no clue if that is even what is being asked of him. It’s nothing but speculation. The team seems to be quite happy with him and want to resign him to an extension. He has shown he’s a young QB with some bad habits, but he’s made a lot of plays and won 21 of 29 games. Where does the doubt come from? Two passes to Crabtree that weren’t completed? Does it come down to that, and if so, isn’t that some pretty unreasonable standard to judge the guy by?

          1. Rocket
            My doubt comes from sub 50% completion 127 and 150 yds and a combined 0 TD and 4 int in the losses to Sea and Ind as well as the 50 ish completion % to go with 91 and 127 yards and 2 TD and 2 int in the two losses to NO and Car (and before im reminded that Brooks got robbed on that BS call and we should have won the NO game im ommiting the 40% comp 113 yard gem he had in the demolishing of hapless Hou)
            A qb that averages 200 YPC in todays nfl should not be paid 20 mil. Oh but you say “he throws less than any other QB in the league” OK so why would you pay Premium $ for something that you dont use? That would be like paying the best nosetackle or fullback or punter monster money while only getting limited use out of them. Isnt that the reasoning we use to not pay a NT or FB?
            Im not saying Kaep sucks or that he isn’t ever going to be a great franchise QB Im saying that paying 20 mil a year for a qb who you only want to throw 20-25 times a game and expect 200 yards from is unwise.
            If in the future CK develops in to “the driving force carrying our team rather than a game manager’ then he will be worth 20 mil a year and more (incidently the cap will be bigger in those years making that contract more affordable)

        2. FDM, I was following you until your the off field persona comment! Sorry but ck does not have an off field issue except not being a stiff typical conservative. How do you judge someone that has never broken the law or hurt anyone!!! Is it his hat or tattoos?

      2. What makes me shake my head is that if Kap had thrown that TD to Crabtree and they had won the SB, there would be no discussion right now.

        But he didn’t, and then he made exactly the same season killing throw the following season.

        1. Makes you wonder how he scored a 37 on his wonderlic….What did Lowell say, when he opens his mouth? Something about Jack….

          1. Makes you wonder how he scored a 37 on his wonderlic

            Yep, especially when he doesn’t throw to wide open receivers.

        2. It was not the same situation Mid. It was a first down play and wasn’t picked by the CB covering the receiver. It was an unfortunate ending, but it wasn’t the same as the SB. It’s also unreasonable to dictate his worth on two throws.

          1. Same throw, same result. It doesn’t matter who was involved Rocket. The result was the same.

            It’s also unreasonable to dictate his worth on two throws.

            There are plenty of other things that have been mentioned again and again, but you’d rather look through rose-colored glasses so I’m not going to even bother.

      3. Agreed rocket.
        And my feelings are that
        Sometimes the old Alex deep sentiments rise to the top on certain
        posters.

        CK an average QB?
        Ha! That boggles the mind.

        1. His numbers were average as well as his advanced stats. Sorry to break it to you, but that absolutely nothing to do with Smith.

  10. I wouldn’t sign Bennett. Lots of money for a guy that would likely only play in the nickel front. It would also mean lots of money invested in a guy that would then only be playing the base 3-4 (McDonald).

    1. I agree Scooter. I think the money required would be out of the Niners pay scale anyway considering they have other players they still want to resign.

  11. I think when all us done, kaepernick will sign for 3-45, 20 guaranteed. he’ll be 29 and in his prime for his last beastly contract.

  12. DE Michael Johnson is the cheaper and potentially more long-term option that the team should try to sign this off-season.

    1. If they are after a situational pass rusher in the 4-man front perhaps. Neither Johnson or Bennett offer much (if any) value in the base 3-4.

  13. niners need to start thinking of replacing 6 players. Either thru draft or free agency this year. PLAN FOR THE FUTURE AND GET YOUNGER

    gore
    mcdonald
    justim smith
    witner
    crabtree
    upati

  14. They should not sign Bennett. McDonald was hurt for most of 2013 and they have Dial and Carradine. As others have said, in SF he’s a part-time player. Better to spend some of that money on locking up Aldon and Brooks, maybe a FA or two and see who’s available in the draft. I’m unconvinced Bennett will do as well anyplace besides Seattle, and my instinct says no.

    Let Carradine be the future Cowboy and look to the draft or free agency for someone to groom.

    WRT Kaep, who’s available that’s better? Oh yeah, NO ONE. Some of you idiots write as if you want Alex back.

    1. WRT Kaep, sounds like the same reasoning the Bears had with Cutler, or the Cowboys had with Romo, etc., etc.

              1. You won’t be satisfied with anyone other than David Fales for that 4th Round price tag will you…..Cheapskate

              2. If Harbaugh truly is the “quarterback whisperer” he should be able to make almost anyone successful.

              3. That would be my take as well Jack. None of the above for $18M – yet. Kaep may get up to that level though, time will tell.

                Peyton for $18M? Yes. With this D even his playoff jitters could be glossed over. And the team actually has a running game to fall back on to help Manning out.

              4. Scooter, I have to laugh. Manning would never survive behind this line, much less the division. Kaepernick is a big part of that running game. How’d Manning do against the Seahawks again? Moreno had over a 1000 yards alone rushing 2013….

              5. Moreno benefits from playing on an offense where teams fear the passing game. Opens up a lot of holes the 49ers RBs never see.

                Manning was able to survive playing behind the Broncos OL, and only got sacked 18 times all year. It isn’t that great an OL, especially when Clady was lost for the year in week 2. He gets the ball out so fast – that is why he can survive at the Broncos. Why couldn’t he survive at the 49ers?

              6. Manning wouldn’t survive because he runs an offense that is the polar opposite of what Harbaugh/Roman run. On field adjustments and option routes vs. run heavy offense with a controlled passing game with few adjustment options.

              7. Slice it anyway you want. Manning had a running game, and scored more points than a team has a right to. Defense in the West and he failed the test. He would be battered going up against those defenses twice a year. Kaepernick was the offense against Seattle in the Championship game. They sure as hell don’t fear Manning….

              8. I didn’t say he was a good fit for the 49ers system, just that he’s worth $18M. You’d need to have the offensive plan that suits him.

              9. Razor, just look at Moreno’s career. Before Manning he was considered a bust. With Manning he’s now a 1,000 yard RB. That is called a QB elevating the play of the players around him.

              10. Yep, he elevated them alright, but not as high as Seahawks fly…The real Super Bowl was the NFC Championship game according to the players. Kaepernick was what gave them the chance to win, not Manning…

              11. “Yep, he elevated them alright, but not as high as Seahawks fly”.

                Neither did Kaepernick, with a far more talented supporting cast.

              12. You did notice the score Scooter. I told you it would be a blow out. What did you predict. Looked like the closer game was by Kaepernick…with a lot less fire power I might add my down under friend.

              13. Manning led the more prolific offense, Kaep led the more talented overall team.

                Manning made guys like Decker, J. Thomas and Moreno look very good, elevating their play. The team also benefitted from having D. Thomas and Welker, two very good receivers. 49ers have Crabtree, Boldin, Davis and Gore, imagine what he could do with those guys, and how much better guys like McDonald, Patton, Hunter and James would look.

              14. I’ve got a hell of an imagination, and even I can’t imagine it. Kaepernick came up short, but Manning, no matter the excuses or imaginations came up shorter…..

              15. Kaep came up very short in the 4th quarter.

                Kaep did very well in the first half by beating the Seahawks with his legs. Once they took that away he was Manning-esque the rest of the way. And this is a guy that had some previous experience against this D to fall back on.

              16. Previous experience? Manning has seen it all. He has the experience, not Colin Kaepernick….Btw, you never said what you predicted the score to be, remember I said 38-13?

              17. I didn’t make a prediction razor. And yes, having played against the Seahawks D definitely is an advantage for Kaep that Manning did not have. You will recall that Kaep has had some absolutely horror games against that D before.

              18. Did you have an idea as to how the game would unfold, and an inclination as to the outcome?

                Manning is said to be the greatest of all time, if that’s not an advantage, I don’t know what is. The excuse you’re making is the same one Bronco fans made in 1985 when the other greatest of all time got his buttocks kicked….If Manning was the greatest, I guess that just makes Kaepernick great, and by gosh, by golly, that’s just good enough for me mate.

              19. Razor, according to you Kaep is going to be (if not already) one of the greatest of all time – surely that provides its own advantage?

                And yes, I had an inclination this game would be a wash too. The Broncos were overrated because Manning makes them look better than they are, and I didn’t think Manning would be good against Seattle’s D. The Broncos don’t have the team to recover from Manning not playing well.

              20. I never said that Scooter. I do think Kaepernick is special, and the more he plays, the closer he’ll get to his ceiling. How high you reckon it might be?

              21. Yup, Manning did see that defense in his pre-season game, similar outcome. Ha! smh kisses bicep

              22. You can’t compare Peyton Manning and Kap at this stage of their respective careers. This goes back to my point about unreasonable expectations put on Kap because he’s done so well in his first season and a half.

                Manning has 17 years experience and some pretty darn good receivers last I checked. Kap played them in Seattle; Manning played them on a neutral field. Kap had his team in position to win but fell short; Manning fell apart and got blown out.

                It’s silly to compare the two but if we must then Kap played a lot better than Manning did.

              23. Razor, I think Kaep is going to be one of the top 5 QBs in the game one day. I really do.

                I wouldn’t pay him like he already is one though.

                As for pre-season, nobody plays as hard in pre-season. Manning played only 1 1/2 quarters. In those he had one TD drive, drove to the Seattle 1 yard line where Hillman fumbled, and drove into Seattle territory another time where J. Thomas fumbled. Either he looked better than Kaep ever has against them, or they weren’t playing hard.

              24. Manning got a good hard look at that defense, so the excuse he was unfamiliar with it was disingenuous.

              25. Rocket, I agree, comparing them is silly. Kaep is future potential, Manning is on the downside of a great career.

                And yes, Kaep did better than Manning against Seattle in the playoffs overall. Once they took away his running lanes and made him a pocket passer in the 2nd half, he was not. But one game in isolation doesn’t make Kaep the better player. Making an argument that Kaep deserves to be paid like Manning because when his team played the Seahawks it was a closer game is equally ridiculous. Different teams, different level of talent in the supporting cast, much greater history between the 49ers and Seahawks.

                I believe Manning is worth $18M, even at this stage of his career, while Kaep isn’t yet.

              26. Disingenuous – not candid or sincere, typically by pretending that one knows less about something than one really does.

                That is a pretty harsh criticism razor and one I don’t really care for. I’ve been pretty candid and sincere in how I think about Kaep and my thoughts on Manning throughout this thread.

                That good hard look at the Seahawks in pre-season means nothing. Teams don’t reveal the whole playbook during pre-season, they tend to keep it simple and use the time to get players back used to game situations.

              27. Scooter,

                I agree that you don’t base the worth on one game. That isn’t what I meant. The point was comparing the two is extremely unfair to the guy with a year and a half of starting, both because of the experience difference and the type of offense they played in.

              28. Scooter says: “And yes, having played against the Seahawks D definitely is an advantage for Kaep that Manning did not have”.

                You don’t have to like it. Your words not mine. Maybe not intentional , but not true just the same mate…

              29. No worries razor – btw, I didn’t think you meant it in a harsh way, so not upset. I just think disingenuous probably wasn’t the right word and is actually a pretty harsh implication when meant. Incorrect was probably the more accurate word. :-)

                Manning hadn’t faced the Seahawks D during either a regular season or playoff game when the teams actually were playing for real. Better?

              30. Apologies mate, but the negativity from certain individuals on a 49er fan blog day in and day out is wearing thin on the others in the locker room….;>)

              31. All good razor.

                I get that I can seem as if I’m negative towards Kaep, but I’m really quite excited about him as the 49ers QB. I genuinely believe he has a good chance of becoming a top notch QB. I just think he isn’t there yet, and the 49ers aren’t in a position where they have to pay him just yet, so no need to take the risk of giving him top 5 QB money just yet.

              32. I hear you Razor it does get a little frustrating and I did the same thing to Jack.

                My apologies Jack for reacting angrily to the earlier post. We’re just talking some ball and there’s no need for that type of behavior on my part.

              33. They don’t want to give Kaepernick any respect. It’s disgusting, but whatever….

                We give him plenty of respect, but you and others don’t think so because those like me say he isn’t worth $18 million a year. He may well turn out to be the best QB to put on a 49ers jersey, but as of now he isn’t worth what he currently wants.

              34. Kapernick is not ready for 18 mil. He is just not there yet. He is still not a solid pocket passer, is still a first read QB and is still too dependent on the pistol. Let us not forget the grief he gave us last year.
                Save the cash for the other stars on this team. Don’t do as the Ravens did and gut the team for the sake of a QB that in their case actually did win a SB.

              35. Razor is trying to imitate Grant’s writing style. Posting something inflammatory in an effort to solicit a response. It’s a shame because most of what he writes when he injects his opinion is pretty informative and creative.

                I wonder how many teams have won the super bowl paying their QB “market value”.
                Going back a few years:
                Flacco
                Eli Manning
                Rodgers
                Wilson
                Brees
                Brady
                Warner
                Roethlisberger

                Not one of these Super Bowl winning QB’s were paid “market value” when they won it all. They were paid after winning it and only Brady and Eli have returned to win it again.

                So no I do not think Kaepernick should be paid this season. I don’t think he is worth more than 5 million a year guaranteed. and roughly 15 million total after incentives. He’s a mobile QB. If he goes down, can you really stomach 20 million a year on IR. It’s unfortunate, but it’s the cost of the style of play he succeeds at. Become a better pocket passer and your value to injury risk soars.

                I think SF could put just about anyone behind center with this roster and expect to win 8-9 games. I think an average QB wins 9-10. And an above average hits the 10-13 mark.

                The play calling seems to be the biggest obstacle for SF right now. Kaepernick has some weaknesses but by the time the playoffs come around, you should have an intimate knowledge of what those weaknesses are and how to avoid them.

              36. Fight fire with fire.

                Fortunately for 49er fans, we will not have to find out if Tyler Wilson can eek out “8-9″ games….

      1. You remember that game against Chicago, the 49ers intercepted Cutler 5 times, with the last one coming with the game winning attempt in the Red Zone?…..

      2. Scooter & Hammer,

        It’s the start of the 2015 off season. The Niners need a QB. What do they do? What do they pay? Assume that Kaepernick has performed and put the same stats that he did in 2013. Do you pay Kaepernick? How much? Do you go after another veteran? How and Why? How much do you spend? Do you hope Harbaugh can just groom a rookie? What’s your solution at QB and why?

              1. that’s asking/gambling a lot on personnel selection and QB development. Do you think Harbaugh can consistently strike gold?

              2. yeah, I figured someone would bring up the “QB whisper” thing. sorry I just don’t buy it. QB talent evaluation and development is just too hard and unpredictable in the NFL to pin all your hopes on plugging in another young and learning QB and expecting him to be successful with a play off caliber team. Sure it happens. But would you be willing to bet money at the beginning of a season if a play off team will continue with a developing QB?

              3. he did that out of necessity. not choice. again, do you really want to plan your QB personnel strategy that way? I mean if we want to pull specific examples: how many QBs did Walsh have to win the Super Bowl? How many did Chuck Knoll have? How many did Jimmy Johnson/Barry Switzer have?

              4. he did that out of necessity. not choice. again, do you really want to plan your QB personnel strategy that way? I mean if we want to pull specific examples: how many QBs did Walsh have to win the Super Bowl? How many did Chuck Knoll have? How many did Jimmy Johnson/Barry Switzer have?

                That’s a good argument, but at the same time, let’s look at what has happened to teams that don’t have a quality backup that can take over an offense if the team needs him to. Look no further than the Colts in what was Manning’s last season with them.

              5. After grabbing DBs, WR and most of all BPA, Fales looks like a most likely QB to be there in the late and to be a promising candidate to groom.
                If Niners want a power run with a pocket passer and more emphasis on WCO then he looks to someday play that part. What they apparently wanted from Colt McCoy, Fales will give them. That is my two cents anyway.

        1. Assuming they don’t take a QB early in this years draft (which they may well do), and Kaep doesn’t lift his game from last season, I’d franchise tag him and see what market there is for a trade. If they don’t trade him, I’d still look to draft a QB in the first round. Likely take a trade up. If they trade him they then have the draft capital to make a run at a top QB next year, and I would sign a veteran QB in FA to back the rookie up.

          Hundley, Mariota, Winston, Petty, Cook and Hogan may all be available next year.

          1. So like Hammer, you believe that Harbaugh and Baalke have a good chance at striking gold again in drafting and developing a new potential starting QB? That’s a pretty big gamble. And at what point do you resign yourself to having to pay market price for a QB? Or do you just keep going back to draft until you find and develop the nearly flawless QB that wins you a Super Bowl?

            1. Yes, I trust them to draft and develop a QB capable of starting in the NFL.

              I’m not saying they need to find a near flawless QB. I’m saying you don’t pay a QB that hasn’t proven he can elevate the play of those around him top 5 QB money, because you’ll need to spend money at other positions to compensate. The only player that has looked better with Kaep than with Smith is Crabtree. He hasn’t proven he is capable of elevating the play of others, or making less talented players look better than they are.

              And I have no problem paying Kaep fair market value. I just don’t think fair market value for him right now is that of a top 5 QB. If that is the money he wants, go out and earn it.

              1. And I have no problem paying Kaep fair market value. I just don’t think fair market value for him right now is that of a top 5 QB.

                what is fair market value? seems to me $18M-$20M range is about “fair market value”. I think that’s the part which is hard for most to swallow.

              2. Fair enough, poor wording on my part. Fair market value is what the market is willing to pay, sure.

                Just because other teams overpay for a player is not reason to do the same. Kaep should not be making the same money as what Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Manning make just yet. Just because Cutler, Romo, Flacco, etc also got similar money doesn’t make it a good idea to pay Kaep the same as them.

              3. Good solid case Scooter. Kap is not in that class….. yet. And as for the over paid second tier, Flacco, at least brought an NFL championship trophy home to Baltimore.
                Cutler and Romo —- well that is someone else’s mistake.

              4. you agree with what and why. you haven’t given much substance to your opinions. i’ve asked you a number of questions and you have yet to answer.

                what is Kaepernick’s worth right now?

                Do you believe he needs to be an elite QB to be held on to past 2015?

                What would your plan be at QB for the 49ers in 2015 if he plays out his rookie contract and he goes to free agency?

                What price are you willing to pay at QB and why?

              5. what is Kaepernick’s worth right now?

                $10-$13 million a year.

                Do you believe he needs to be an elite QB to be held on to past 2015?

                No, but he needs to show that he can win with his passing skills if defenses take away his ability to run wild.

                What would your plan be at QB for the 49ers in 2015 if he plays out his rookie contract and he goes to free agency?

                I doubt that it would come to that since the team could tag him after this year if need be. That said, if the scenario you have put forth does come to fruition, then the team should draft the best option that they see.

                What price are you willing to pay at QB and why?

                What he is worth and not what the market deems fit. Why? Because you need to know if sacrificing significant cap space and possibly having to let go of some key assets is actually worth it.

              6. there are currently 8 teams with 30 million dollars or more in cap space. only 1 of them is that at quarterback.the raiders how about 65 million in cap space. And I loved Kaep when you came out of college.so what do you think? wood those teams hey top dollar for tbose 2nd tier QBs? and isn’t what other teams pay for something the definition of “fair market” value?

              7. Boldin had one of the best seasons of his career with Kap throwing him the ball. I don’t get this elevating the players around them idea. He can only throw to the people he has and Boldin, Davis and Crabs when he returned all had good seasons. What didn’t Kap elevate? It’s become a fallback term to say why he shouldn’t get a big contract and nobody can explain what they mean by it. At least Grant can’t.

              8. Boldin is an established and excellent WR rocket. Hard to say he really elevated his play. If anything he tried to force him the ball too often.

              9. Scooter,

                Boldin’s last season that was better than the one he had this year, was 8 years ago. Grant wrote an article talking about how he wouldn’t have a big impact before the season at his age and by all rights that was plausible. He was Kap’s only WR for much of the season and Kap still got him the ball. If there is ever an example of elevating somebody’s play, that’s it.

              10. Boldin actually had a better season in 2012 than he did in 2013 if you include the playoffs.

                Elevating talent is turning nobodies into weapons. Kaepernick hasn’t done that. Wilson and Newton have. Peyton, Brady, Rodgers and Brees do.

                When the QB earns more than $20 mil a season, he’s going to play with some nobodies sometimes.

              11. It’s not selective. That’s 19 games each season.

                I’m not sure what you’re responding to. this new format is hard to follow.

        2. “what is Kaepernick’s worth right now?”

          About $8-9 million per

          “Do you believe he needs to be an elite QB to be held on to past 2015?”

          He needs to show improvement.

            1. 426-663, 64%, 4881 yards, 30TD, 10int

              379-634, 59%, 5011 yards, 31TD, 11int.

              The top numbers are Alex Smith in 2011 and 2012. The bottom numbers are Colin Kaepernick in 2012 and 2013.

              1. They don’t need to pay Kaepernick the market rate in 2014. They have him for $1.6 million.

              2. and 2015? 2016? again, I don’t agree with the magical mystical QB whisper QB personnel plan. it goes against the historical odds of talent acquisition and development in the NFL.

              3. They can own Kaepernick’s rights for the next three years if they want him without doing anything.

              4. by Franchising him? They don’t get a 5th year option because he isn’t a 1st rounder. if they tag him in 2015 it’d probably be around $15M. Might as well sign him to an extension that structures the hit better.

              5. He’s not? I could of sworn he was the quarterback of the 49ers. Maybe you should be a Bears fan….

              6. So being a 49ers QB immediately means you are the one of the best in the league? No need for improvement because he is the starter?
                Maybe you should think before you post instead of questioning my loyalty.

              7. Barrows believes the 49ers have determined Kaepernick is their franchise quarterback, get over it. Not your money…

              8. Barrows believes the 49ers have determined Kaepernick is their franchise quarterback, get over it.

                First of all, Barrows isn’t and will never be the final say in the 49ers organization Razor. Second, there has never been an argument that Kaep is the team’s future, just with how much he is currently worth. Nice try though.

              9. Barrrows is however closer to the truth than you are, and you really are full of information aren’t you? “Barrows isn’t and never will be the final say in the 49ers organization razor”. I did not know that.

                Again the disconnect. Franchise quarterbacks are worth 18 million, and Kaepernick has been determined to be the 49ers franchise quarterback. He will be payed, and I suppose you and your ilk will keep whining about it….

              10. Career Passer Rating & Career QBR

                Kaepernick: 93.8 – 75.6

                Romo: 95.8 – (ESPN has not calculated Romo’s career QBR but based on his year to year, I’d guess it to be in the mid 50s)

                Cutler: 84.6 – 56.4

                Flacco: 83.7 – 53.2

                Based on 2013 QBR stats, Kaepernick ranks 7th between Aaron Rogers and Jay Cutler. Romo is ranked 12th and Flacco is 25th.

              11. you’re the king of selective statistics. if we leave out X it’ll equal my view point…..

            2. SF brings that to the table and if they meet somewhere in the middle it will make much more sense than what CK is currently asking for his next set of head phones.

          1. Alex Smith wasn’t even worth that low of an amount when he resigned two years ago. You have no concept of where this league is at in the QB market.

          2. I made the case a week or two a go that a 3-year contract worth around $45 million in total would be fair. I still think that is the case. Give him around $15M in signing bonus but keep his salary in 2014 around $1M (cap figure of ~$6M this year), and spread the remaining $29M over the other two years – say $12.5M in 2015 (cap figure of $17.5M) and $16.5M in 2016 (cap figure of $21.5M).

            This would give Kaep around the same amount he would get if they don’t sign him this year and franchise him for two years, but would give him money in the pocket now and would be more palatable against the cap for the 49ers. Importantly, it would keep Kaep here for one more year beyond Harbaugh’s existing contract – if Harbaugh leaves you want to see if he can operate in another system but not be committed to him in case he can’t.

            They can add clauses on the contract that extend the deal and/ or pay more money to Kaep if he reaches certain performance marks.

  15. No. Bennet is going to break the bank. He isn’t doing the 1 year thing this year, he’s going to get at least a 4 year big deal… 10 mil a year at least. In my opinion

    1. Dobbs is a mild surprise in that with Carradine and Williams coming back from injury this year, Dobbs probably won’t even suit up when the team is at full strength.

            1. Dorsey can also play DE. Dobbs can’t also play NT. They need to have a backup active that can play NT.

              1. Yeah, Carradine and Dial active on game days makes sense. Still leaves Dobbs not in uniform – they generally only have 5 DL active.

        1. No, but after spending a 2nd rounder on him despite knowing he had a knee injury that would likely put him out for the year I’m guessing they believe he’s pretty good.

          1. I’m not sure I get this move. ST, B/U TE, FB. versatile. $1.3 mil. Don’t think he’d find that elsewhere.

  16. Grant you should seriously consider just working for the Seahawks because all you seem to do is bag on the 49ers and praise the Seahawks. Yes they are a great team but gosh have some faith in the team you are covering and stop bashing on Kap too, if there’s anyone who can pick apart Seattle’s D it’s him and he proved that in the championship game besides that bad 4th quarter. He’s worth the money to me, if Cutler can get paid for doing squat then Kap deserves the same kind of money for what he’s accomplished in the past 2 years.

  17. With williams, dorsey, tank, mac, j smith, dial…. Do we still think DT is really a 1st or 2nd round need. Didn’t even mention dobbs or the practice squad guys. Also one of these guys will probably be traded for a picj in next year’s draft

    1. We were weak in the middle of our line. Mainly because our rapture didn’t perform well. Once the nose tackle tired, the flood gates opened for Lynch and other good rbs.

  18. With the signings of Dobbs and Wilhoite today the 49ers now sit $8.022 million under the cap.

    Where does a new deal for Kaepernick fit?

    1. “Might as well sign him to an extension that structures the hit better.”

      Not this year. If they do a deal for what Kaepernick is looking for now they will need to include a signing bonus to give them the flexibility you mention.

      Of that signing bonus, 1/5 would go against this years cap number.

      Setting it up like Flacco’s deal makes the most sense. That deal included salary, signing bonus and other bonuses.

      Let’s say the 49ers give him a 6 year deal worth $114 million (avg $19 mil) tomorrow. Of that $25 million is a signing bonus.

      Kaepernick’s 2014 cap number would go up to at least $5 million, and that is without any salary included.

      That leaves the 49ers with just over $3 mill in cap space for free agents and draft picks.

      Also, that means his cap hit would probably be around $10 million next year when they have to look at guys like Aldon Smith (expect him to take up about $9.75).

      It would be much more favorable for the team to have that ~ $5 mil cap hit in 2015, with the ~ $10 mil in 2016 and so on.

      1. Yep, if they re-sign Kaep, the reality is they will not be able to keep everyone. In another thread I mention a potential 3 year deal, but if they do that they most certainly will have to let some guys go they may otherwise want to keep this year (Whitner, Brown, Rogers), and will also need to make some tough decisions next year and the year after.

        However, that is just the reality of the NFL. Every team has to deal with it. I’m not against giving Kaep money because of the ramifications of keeping other players. I’m against committing to him long term because the risk is still too high for my liking at the moment. They can cope with a reasonably high salary cap figure for Kaep if he keeps improving. If he doesn’t and they decide they need to go another direction, they can’t afford the cap ramifications of getting rid of a high priced, long term contract.

          1. I should say that while I’m not against giving Kaep a shorter term deal like the one I suggested, I’d prefer to just let it play out, keep him on his rookie contract this season.

              1. No it doesn’t. You’re assuming that they won’t be able to reach a long term deal.

              2. how would they structure a workable longterm deal??? Kaepernick would go for $20M+ per year! This is the part you guys aren’t getting. Remember, 2015 is when Luck, Wilson and RGIII are up for extensions. Kaepernick will be entering Free Agency. There are currently 7 teams with more that $30M under the salary cap. How many of them would want to pay Kaepernick market rate? Oakland loved Kaepernick coming out in the Draft, so I’m guessing they really like him now (or in 2015).

              3. That doesnt make any sense. Nor does Kaepernick have any reason to agree to it in 2015. Again, the Niners will have no bargaining advantage. Thats why you do extensions with a year left on them.

              4. The 49ers can simply franchise him if they need/want to.

                Either way, Kaepernick will not be a free agent in 2015 unless the 49ers want him to be.

              5. why franchise him for what will probably be around $16M when you can sign him for less of a cap hit and only significantly risk one more year in 2015 and 2016.? your magical franchise tag solution just doesn’t make any sense.

              6. “Kaepernick would go for $20M+ per year! This is the part you guys aren’t getting.”

                Trust me, I get it. And if he does well this year and proves he is worth that kind of money, I’ll have no qualms with the 49ers paying it to him. Its not as if the “discount” they’d get this year would be that big a difference. Keep in mind they can structure the deal so that the cap hit in the first 3 years is no less manageable than what you are suggesting, and it will all be pushed back one year.

              7. how??? you don’t have his final your of his existing contract to use to manage the the hit in 2015 and 2016. Plus WHY would Kaepernick take a deal that delays his money like that. Remember, he’s a free agent in 2015. The discount is an extra year to work with and the leverage to get him to take less and stretch the money. You don’t have that with a brand new contract.

              8. AFFP,

                You can do the exact same deal you put together the other day. Moving money around to different years has nothing to do with his existing contract.

                Look at Flacco’s deal if you can’t figure it out.

                New contract averaging $20.1 mill per year with a cap hit of $6.8 in year one.

                It’s not that difficult.

              9. “it’s not that difficult?” I swear most here play checkers while I’m trying to play chess. Do you think I haven’t gone over Flacco, Stafford and Romo’s contracts with a fine tooth comb?

                Flacco’s contract locks them into the deal for 4-5 years because of the $5.8M (per year for the first four years) pro rated signing bonus. When 2016 comes around, the Ravens will be in a tough spot with Flacco because he’ll have a $28M cap hit. They’ll have him restructure his deal for more guaranteed money but he’ll still have nearly $12M of guaranteed signing bonus coming to him. Which makes renegotiating with him that much more difficult.

                The way I have Kaep’s deal structured, the Niners have little commitment beyond year 3. So they would have the advantage going forward come time to restructure when they need more cap space. But at the same time the cap numbers aren’t that too far out there that he’d probably still be at market rate if they stuck to the original contract.

              10. 6 year contract:

                $20M signing bonus (gets pro-rated over 5 years)
                $50M guaranteed (signing bonus + $30M salary in first 3 years)
                $125M deal over 6 years = $20.83M per year

                2015:
                - $3M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $23M
                - Cap Hit = $7M

                2016:
                - $10M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $10M
                - Cap Hit = $14M

                2017:
                - $17M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $17M
                - Cap Hit = $21M

                2018:
                - $21M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $21M
                - Cap Hit = $25M

                2019:
                - $24M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $24M
                - Cap Hit = $28M

                2020:
                - $30M salary
                - signing bonus = $0 (5 year pro-rating finished)
                - Money to Kaep = $30M
                - Cap Hit = $30M

                I’ve managed to keep the first 3 years of the deal exactly the same cap hit as you did, but this is delayed by one year as the deal starts in 2015. If they release him after 3 years, the cap hit is just $8M, which can be made to be $4M over two years if they use a post June 1 designation.

              11. you’re still playing checkers.

                Kaep would not sign that deal. He has no chance of ever seeing that last $30M. It’s pointless. and he has no reason to take a discount for $16M a year for the 1st three years. remember, it’s all about the 1st 3 years of the contract. with an extension in 2014 he gets to replace his $1M with $7M. But why do that in 2015? that’s the whole point of an extension.

                and you’ve hamstrung the club with $25M and $28M cap hits in 2018 and 2019 with an ongoing commitment of $8M in remaining signing bonus.

              12. Maybe, maybe not. Here’s a look at the other recent big contracts for QBs.

                Joe Flacco – $47.5M in first 3 years, $29M guaranteed
                Tony Romo – $55.5M in first 3 years, $40M guaranteed
                Jay Cutler – $54M in first 3 years, $54M guaranteed

                You may be right, they may need to add some extra $$ up front. Considering you have a contract paying $14M against the cap for 2015 and I’ve got $7M, and I’ve got $14M against the cap for 2016 and you’ve got $21M, there is probably a little bit of room to play, wouldn’t you say? Not to mention he only counts for $1M this year compared to $7M in your scenario.

                As for hamstrung in 2018 and 2019, with the cap increasing like it is, those cap hits will likely be able to be fit in. The 2018 cap hit is the same as what you were suggesting anyway. As for the dead money, $4M a year to get Kaep off the books if he doesn’t pan out as hoped isn’t so bad. And since they’ve had an extra year to evaluate him in this scenario, you’ve got more confidence in him panning out.

                Who knew checkers was so difficult for a chess champion?

              13. the Cap has been relatively flat for the past couple of years before this year. this year it bumped up significantly because the NFL sold half of hit’s Thursday night games. the Cap won’t bump up that much in the future to the same degree it did this year.

                what I’m saying is that $7M in 2015 probably isn’t feasible. You’re most likely going to have to increase that number. again, you’re not getting him for only $16M per year in the first 3 years of the contract. And you’ve differed a good chunk of compensation until 2020 which I don’t believe is feasible either because both sides know he’ll never see it. and under your contract, in 2018 to get Kaep off the books it would cost $8M.

              14. The salary cap is expected to rise to $150M by 2016.

                The contract I did was simply demonstrating how you can manipulate the cap to push money back to later years when the salary cap is higher, and as an extreme I went with your cap figures pushed back a year. If you prefer you can add more $$ to earlier years – how about this:

                6 year contract:

                $20M signing bonus (gets pro-rated over 5 years)
                $62M guaranteed (signing bonus + $42M salary in first 3 years)
                $130M deal over 6 years = $21.67M per year

                2015:
                - $8M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $28M
                - Cap Hit = $12M

                2016:
                - $16M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $16M
                - Cap Hit = $20M

                2017:
                - $18M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $18M
                - Cap Hit = $22M

                2018:
                - $21M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $21M
                - Cap Hit = $25M

                2019:
                - $22M salary
                - $4M signing bonus (pro rated)
                - Money to Kaep = $22M
                - Cap Hit = $26M

                2020:
                - $25M salary
                - signing bonus = $0 (5 year pro-rating finished)
                - Money to Kaep = $25M
                - Cap Hit = $25M

                This deal still has Kaep under contract for less than what you have suggested for the following years – 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. It would also be the same cap hit as your 2018 figure, and the cap hits are then very similar in 2019 and 2020. After 2017, if they release him, the cap hit is just $8M, which can be made to be $4M over two years if they use a post June 1 designation. That really isn’t that bad – $1M more per year than what it would cost to release him after 3 years of your extension. But as I pointed out previously, since they’ve waited a year to make the deal they’ve got an extra year of evaluation to make sure they are happy to commit that sort of money to him. If he does really well next season, the could add a bit more to the deal without being far from the cap figures you are suggesting, all while keeping him at around $1M this year.

                There is no need to sign Kaep to an extension this offseason.

              15. I’m still not a fan of a 6 year commitment. Also after your 3 year mark you’re still stuck with $8M. And yes you could cut him and absorb the hit over 2 years as you say. But the point is to be in a good negotiating position and $8M remaining guaranteed is not the best position to be in. And I’m still not a fan of the all salary final year as it is still a throw away year. if you’re Kaep and the Niners, during while renegotiating your contract, you’d completely ignore that year.

              16. Affp, it is a 3 year commitment, just like your contract. No guaranteed money after the first 3 years. And you can throw that last year out if it really irks you so bad, really doesn’t make diddly squat difference. Its a nice way of saying to Kaep “congratulations buddy, you’ve now signed the biggest contract ever for a QB”. It is a relatively cap friendly amount (in that it has a similar cap value as the previous 2 years) so if the 49ers were happy with how Kaep was going in year 5, no reason not to keep him for year 6.

                “But the point is to be in a good negotiating position and $8M remaining guaranteed is not the best position to be in.”

                Good lord, you realise you had a contract that would have $6M remaining against the cap after 3 years don’t you? Is that extra $2M really going to hamstring the 49ers? Especially given they have had the extra year to make sure Kaep is the long term answer at the position?

                Affp, I think at this point you are simply arguing because you don’t want to be wrong.

              17. do you believe the Niner’s salary cap situation will be relatively much better than other team’s in 2015? With Luck, Wilson and RGIII getting extensions (and possibly Newton if the Panthers choose to use a 5th year option this year) what do you think the QB contracts will look like? Secondly, if Kaep approaches free agency, teams like the Raiders, Vikings and Browns ($50M – $65M in cap space) can offer contracts that look like.

                2015
                $30M signing bonus
                $20M Guaranteed Salary

                2016
                $6M – signing bonus
                $22M – guaranteed salary

                2017
                $6M signing bonus
                $20M – salary

                2018
                $6M – signing bonus
                $14M – salary

                2019
                $6M
                $12M – salary

                2020
                $6M
                $12M

                5 years $110M : $22M/Y
                3 Years $86M

                Basically a front loaded contract that makes the future salary cap much more manageable. It’s a very doable contract for a team with lots of salary cap space. This is the way a building team would try to get a free agent QB.

                If you’re Kaep, which contract do you sign?

      2. Let’s value Kaepernick at $18M per year. He’s statistically worth in the Tony Romo $20M range. But he should be discounted because: he has one year left on his contract and because he has only 23 games on his resume.

        So I propose:

        4 year extension

        $90M Total, Average of $18M Per Year (including current year)

        $40M in Guaranteed Money Guaranteed Money includes: Signing Bonus, Roster Bonuses and Workout Bonuses.

        $15M Signing Bonus

        $20M Roster Bonus

        $5M Workout Bonus

        2014
        Signing Bonus: $3M
        Roster Bonus: $1
        Workout Bonus: $1
        Salary: $2M
        Cap Number: $7M
        Money to Kaep: $19M (TOTAL signing bonus+ roster bonus + workout bonus)

        2015
        Signing Bonus: $3M
        Roster Bonus: $5
        Workout Bonus: $1
        Salary: $5
        Cap Number: $14M
        Money to Kaep: $11M

        2016
        Signing Bonus: $3M
        Roster Bonus: $12
        Workout Bonus: $1
        Salary: $5
        Cap Number: $21M
        Money to Kaep: $18M

        3 Year Total = $48M
        Average Yearly $16M

        2017
        Signing Bonus: $3M
        Roster Bonus: $1M
        Workout Bonus: $1M
        Salary: $18M
        Cap Number: $23M
        Money to Kaep: $20M

        2017
        Signing Bonus: $3M
        Roster Bonus: $1M
        Workout Bonus: $1M
        Salary: $20M
        Cap Number: $25M
        Money to Kaep: $22M

        Under this contract, Kaep’s salary cap hit this year isn’t too bad at $7M. It’s manageable the following year at $14M and after that he starts his cap hit is about fair market value (as of 2014) which will look discounted to future market value QB contracts. The 49er’s commitment past year 3 isn’t too bad either. Kaepernick’s only true guarantee would be the remaining $6M signing bonus. Heck, they could cut or trade Kaepernick with only a $3M cap penatly. After the first 3 years of the contract are up, Kaep and the Niners will be open to renegotiate (probably for less money and cap hit in exchange for more guaranteed money).

        1. With your scenario the team would be left with $1,424,776 in cap space. Further down the thread you suggested cutting Rogers and replacing him with Cox.

          Cutting Rogers would leave the team with $6,530,244 in space.

          Cox is currently not signed for 2014 so they would need to re-sign him. His 2013 salary was $555,000. For now let’s say they sign him for the same amount.

          These moves would leave the team with $5,975,244 in cap space. Enough to sign the draft picks and that’s about it.

          1. I think with cutting Rogers, the cap space would be around $15M? Minus Kaep’s $7 would leave $8M? They would probably have to restructure a few contracts too. I suppose you could move a million or two from 2014 to 2015 and 2016.

            1. They spent ~ $2 mil today. My numbers are correct.

              It is still much more favorable for the team to have this deal start at the low end in 2015 even if it means a million or two more per year.

              They have another big deal or two to get done, with only 45 guys under contract and a bunch of those are practice squad guys.

              1. but that’s what you’re not getting Hammer. there is no low end in 2015. the Niners have little leverage in 2015 and Kaepernick is going to get fair market value which includes the probable INCREASE of an estimated $2-3M per year for QBs. You get a discount and an extra year to play with by negotiating early before the rookie contract has expired.

            1. as I said, they’ll have to renegotiate some other contracts and maybe move a million or two into 2015 and 2016 to make it work.

              1. it’s an extension. in 2014 Kaepernick was already slated to make $1M. It’s 90 (okay $89) in new money spread over additional 4 new years. the only major difference is that he gets the signing bonus (and a roster bonus) in 2014 instead of 2015.

      3. they can restructure or cut Carlos Roger’s $7M salary. I know he’s valuable in the slot but Cox filled in capably. The Niners lose negotiating leverage in 2015. He’s going into free agency. Plus you have another year of a rising QB market rate. And his new contract will be at the same time as Wilson, Luck and RGIII will be getting their extensions.

  19. Lynch was the sea Hawks offense. He is the one who elevated everyone’s play. Wilson was made better because of the defense focusing to much on Lynch. Had our running attack been better, kap would have looked great. Look at the games Kap did well. Our running attack looked amazing. However Kap has flaws but makes up for them with his legs. You have to take all of his skills into account.

    1. Had our running attack been better, kap would have looked great.

      And if our passing attack had been better, the running game would have looked great. Those two things go well together.

  20. Matt Barrows:

    I think Kaepernick’s per-year-average ultimately will be between $18 and $20 million. And, yes, that’s what I think he’s worth. like it or not, that’s how much franchise QBs make. The market has spoken. If the 49ers determine that CK is the future — and I believe they have — that’s what they have to pay. That figure will mean the team can re-sign one or two other FAs to be. But other guys will have to go.

    Hmmm, pretty much what Rocket and I have been saying…

    More From Barrows:

    You pay market now if you are sure he’s your QB of the future. Obviously, a lot of fans have that trepidation. But everything he’s done heretofore strongly suggests that. My sense is that a deal gets done.

    When the deal gets done, there will be some weeping and gnashing of teeth by a few non believers on here…

    1. The market has spoken.

      This statement alone kills his argument.

      When the deal gets done, there will be some weeping and gnashing of teeth by a few non believers on here…

      So where exactly will they get the money? Even just cutting Rogers won’t be enough now. Who do you want to see get cut and traded to make the cap room needed?

        1. Play GM here. Who would you trade or release right now to get the cap space to give Kaep what he wants, which is $18.3 million a year?

              1. He’s basing his numbers off the NFLPA. They won’t recognize the Dobbs and Wilhoite deals until after the period closes for other teams to negotiate with them if they choose.

              2. Besides, if it is $10 million, about $6-$7 million will be going to our draft picks. So I ask again Razor, who would you trade or release so the team could give Kaep the $18.3 million that he wants?

    2. I completely agree with everything Barrows says there. I think he will ultimately sign a deal worth $18M – $20M a year (maybe even a little higher), because that is what franchise QBs make.

      I also think he will sign such a deal in 2015. There is no need to get the deal done this offseason.

    1. Once again another expert highlighting just how darn good the WR crop is this year. They can’t split them. All of those guys are 1st-2nd rounder, and there are a bunch of other guys in the 1st-2nd round calibre as well.

  21. According to Overthecap the 49ers 2014 rookie pool is estimated to be 6.5m and the cap space required is 1.8m.

    1. That takes a nice chunk off the table for the Seahawks who only use him about 60% of the time. Chicago offered a half million more to play significantly more time….

  22. Kaepernick isn’t worth the big dough this year. If he wants too much then pay him the minimum and franchise him if he has a good year.

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