Blaine Gabbert vs. Derek Carr by the numbers

Quick blog before Blaine Gabbert speaks at his Wednesday press conference.

Compare Gabbert to the supposed franchise quarterback of the Oakland Raiders, Derek Carr:

Carr: 63.6 completion percentage and 7.5 yards per pass attempt in 2015, 8-20 career win-loss record, 24-and-a-half-years old.

Gabbert: 63.0 completion percentage and 7.6 yards yards per pass attempt in 2015, 7-24 career win-loss record, 26-years old.


      1. You need precise numbers although we can always look at how long he holds the ball before releasing it etc. I was looking for a comparison of his and Carr’s QB skills – Range, accuracy, completion % at different ranges. Ability to avoid the pass rush. Ability to read the defense etc.

  1. You’re kidding, right? Ask a number of coaches, assistant coaches, etc. and see who they would want as their starting QB? Gabbert would have no chance….

      1. Your obviously not a real raiders fan how could you even say that? Carr is our future and he is only getting better gabbert isn’t even comparable to Carr on any scale

    1. Blaine Gabbert has a higher ceiling, clearly, considering his similar numbers playing with behind a worse OL and les talent at WR.

  2. Gabbert has been in the league for 4 years and his career has peaked where as Carr is in his sophomore season and improving considerably. Plus if you look at TD and INT, Gabbert has 28 TD and 27 INT in his career while Carr has 47 TD and 21 INT. Just because completion percentage, YPA, and W/L records are similar doesn’t mean that these two QBs are comparable or on the same level.

      1. The receiving crew, tight ends, and running backs from the 2011 Jags are just as good as the 2014 Raiders’ skill players and Carr’s rookie numbers (3,270 yards 21 TD 12 INT) are significantly better than Gabbert’s stats (2,214 12 TD 11 INT). Are you really comparing Blaine Gabbert to Steve Young, Jeff Garcia, and Rich Gannon? That is purely ridiculous

        1. Good point. Probably most of posters on this site are way too young to remember what happened to Plunkett. As you know, he was completely shell shocked at New England who drafted the Heisman trophy winner and proceeded to destroy his confidence by throwing him behind a horrendous offensive line and a poor surrounding cast of characters in general. Traded to SF for a short time who traded him to the Raiders who had a great offensive line and really good coaching. They coached him up, got his confidence back and the next thing you know he takes them to a Super Bowl victory. Yeah dmac. When I think of Gabbert’s potential I always think of Jim Plunkett. Either way, I’m wishing the best for Blaine.

      1. 2015

        Gabbert 2-2 .500
        Carr 5-7 .417

        If you want to talk about Gabbert’s career with Jacksonville, take it to a Jags blog

  3. And Carr, as hard as it is to write, had the better team so far…if you look at his TD to INT ratio (47 to 21 = 2.3 : 1 ratio ) vs Gabbert (28 to 27 1.03 : 1).

    Sports is truly situational. Carr playing on that Jax team probably would be in the same spot as Gabbert is today. Steve Young Tampa vs Steve Young SF. If Montana and Walsh don’t end up in SF what happens to boths careers.

  4. Let’s give him at least another four games, please.


    Never thought I’d say it, but with Kilgore coming back, Blaine gaining more experience, and the secondary gelling, we’ll have a chance to win all those games, yes, even the Bengals.

  5. Gabbert is Johnny Utah.

    Why does anybody think this guy CANT be an “elite” QB in the NFL? If you believe Young was “elite,” then what Gabbert showed in 4Q/OT in Chicago begs the question whether he can become Young, and sooner. He’ll need consistency at OC/HC, and likely better quality at both; but it sure looks like he’s managed to improve considerably with the likes of Chryst and Logan as his QBC, so what gives?

  6. The difference is that Carr has shown more promise early in his career on a bad team. He looks like he can become a perennial Pro Bowl QB. Gabbert struggled on a bad team early in his career and is now starting to look like a competent QB. The arrow is pointing up for both of them.

    Carr’s two seasons:
    47 TD’s 21 INT’s 6,448 yards

    Gabbert’s five seasons:
    28 TD’s 27 INT’s 5,358 yards

    1. BigP

      Seasons are not equivalent, gotta use games.

      Gabbert is Alex Smith +. I’m inclined to say that Gabbert, with the right attitude, attention to detail (Tom House), and coaching, might ascend to the Aaron Rodgers side of the 2005 draft class, more than the Alex Smith side.

      1. I’m using their production, which isn’t equivalent, especially when you factor in their time in the league. I like Gabbert but I think people are becoming a bit delusional about this guy. I’d prefer that an offensive minded coach be hired, a talented QB be drafted and Gabbert can compete with that QB. If he shows that he’s the guy, awesome. I just don’t want all of my eggs in that basket.

    2. Big P,

      I don’t know how many years are on Carr’s football resume before the NFL, but there were only four on Gabbert’s. On top of that, he was only 20 when he came to the NFL.

      I’m not saying that means Gabbert necessarily has vast untapped upside, but it does mean that what Gabbert can ultimately be is less defined by what he has done up to now. How much less is a very open question, but after learning of his relative lack of experience, I’m somewhat more hopeful as to what BG can become.

      The best case probably is that Gabbert is capable of being a pretty good bridge to the next QB, but who knows?

  7. Try stats that matter. Our “supposed” franchise QB has the following stats compared to Gabby

    Player G Comp Att Comp Pct Yds TD Int
    Carr 12 271 426 63.6 3,178 26 9
    Gabert 4 80 127 63.0 963 5 3

    Come back and talk to us when he plays a full season.

    Over his career he has been anything but a franchise QB. Raiders will win the SB with Carr. He IS our franchise QB. Next year we will go to the playoffs and have a much better defense after the draft. You will still have Gabbert/Kap,and the 49ers front office/coaching staff!

    1. Exactly. The author us only mentioning stats that are incredibly similar for all Qb’s, why not bring up TD-int ratio? YPG? Qb and passer rating? Because all those stats passing a completely different picture. Carr literally had one of the worst supporting casts in football history in 14, and they had the worst running game in NFL history up to game 10, which is terrible for a rookie to work with, considering it completely eliminates play action, a huge part of a functioning offense. Blaine had MJD, so they had a really good running game to work with, which opens all kinds of passing lanes. Carr still doesn’t have a decent running game to work with, Murray will break a few runs in the first quarter and then average 2.2 ypa the rest of the game. Btw wins aren’t a QB stat, they are a team stat, and everyone knows the Raiders have been devoid of talent, it’s only been getting better the last couple drafts, which is not enough time to develop all the talent. Carr will be one of the best, he just needs a running game to compliment him now, he has proven he can win game’s with his arm, but 17 pass plays in a row is ridiculous.

    2. Lol you say that like he’s been the best qb in the league. Raider fans I know aren’t happy with those 4th quarter picks and redzone issues.
      Carr is overrated and not yet ready for the big stage.
      Gabbert on the other hand has shown some promise. But naming him the franchise guy is a bit to pre mature.
      The twos upswing??? I’d call it about even. Given Gabbert doesn’t have the weapons Carr does at this point and nowhere near the o-line Carr does.

  8. This is the best Blaine Gabbert is ever going to be. Carr has the potential to improve beyond what he is now.

    1. I think until we see him play with a solid OL and a good RB it is premature to say we are seeing him play as well as he possibly can. What he’s doing is a decent job without much help.

      1. I agree Scooter, and I think he’s doing something else. He’s galvanizing the team by providing the leadership they so desperately desired, and it’s translating to the field by the way they’re playing for each other. Anyone that’s put themselves through the torture of watching every game this year can attest to that, to include my amatuer eyes….

      2. Most offenses run pretty well with a solid OL and a good RB but does that mean Gabbert is a better QB because of it? Haven’t we been saying that a good OL and run game was hiding Kaepernick’s deficiencies all this time and that he’s really always been this average? Why would it be any different with Blaine. Just because he has a better line and running back doesn’t mean he is going to become a more accurate passer or one that looks for deeper routes instead of constantly dumping off even when there is no pressure.

          1. You mean the same Joe Montana that said this about Kaepernick,”He’ll take that team back and get it winning again, ”

            Pretty strong endorsement.

              1. Yep that’s right where that quote came from, what was the point of posting that though? Doesn’t change my point.

        1. “or one that looks for deeper routes instead of constantly dumping off even when there is no pressure.”

          That’s exactly what I want to see, CfC. If he still is a QB that is impatient in the pocket on a team with a solid OL and a running game that demands respect, then I’ll agree with you. At the moment he has neither, so it is hard to find too much fault in him for looking to get the ball out his hands quick even when he doesn’t necessarily have to.

          1. That’s exactly what I want to see, CfC. If he still is a QB that is impatient in the pocket on a team with a solid OL and a running game that demands respect, then I’ll agree with you.
            Ok that’s not only fair but I’d agree with it as well. One caveat I’m maintaining though is in these 4 games he’s had more then a few opportunities when there was zero pressure on him and he just doesn’t look for it(deeper routes) or simply can’t see it and feels pressure that isn’t there and goes to the dump off. These moments make me think think that giving him more time really isn’t the solution.

    2. Coffee
      There is clearly a difference in how BG played for the Jags and the BG we have now. What makes you believe that he peeked already and getting a real RB TE and a better line around him will not contribute to his improvement?

    3. So you have been saying all year that the CS and the OL are the worst in the league.
      And yet, you think a QB playing behind that line and under those coaches cannot play better than he’s playing.

      Ok. I got it. It might make sense for somebody I guess.

  9. What is even the purpose of this comparison? To get people frothing at the mouth supporting their team’s QB? They are both good QBs. End of story!

  10. Sometimes, you are only as good as the team around you. Both are not going to the Super Bowl.
    I like Carr, he is pretty accurate and throws the ball down the field.
    However, I am glad Gabbert is the Niner QB. He can do more with his legs than Carr.

    1. Yea, I was shocked at how fast Gabbert was. If Palmer was clocked at 18 mph on his touchdown run, and I haven’t seen a report on Gabberts’, but I’d estimate 21 mph. He’s just such a beautiful piece….

      1. The book on Gabbert running will wind up similar to the book on Kaepernick running. It’s a great asset but it can’t be used as the core threat of an offense.

      2. The thing I like about Gabbert’s running is he is decisive about it, and he also has good short area agility.

        Because the book on Kaep is that he is a running QB, he has been trying very hard to be perceived differently, which has actually made him more indecisive as a runner. And he does struggle avoiding guys with quick feet.

        1. Kap runs in a straight line. Gabbert zigzags to avoid tackles, a little bit like a RB.
          Watch those 2 runs from last game!

  11. Grant wasn’t it YOU WHO SUPPOSED that Derek Carr was a franchise QB? In telling us that the raiduhs will finish with a better record than the 9ers you used DC as a reason of why that will happen. Also when Crab was lamenting playing with a “real QB” (a dig at CK no doubt) I believe that you backed Carr. The one thing not listed in the comparison is that BG is in his 5th year in the league while Carr is in his second. and has 41 Tds to 21 ints and BG is 28 to 27.
    But if you throw out all relevant stats that clearly paint Carr as the better QB I guess you can argue that Van Halen was better with David Lee Roth than with Sammy Hagar

    1. Why would anyone bring up the stats in jax? Do you honestly think Carr would have been any better?
      New start new qb. That’s obvious

  12. Just the fact that this discussion is taking place speaks volumes regarding Blaine Gabbert’s amazing play. Who knows, with an improving offensive line, the sky is the limit. Yeah, we can beat the Bengals, but not on Sunday night.

  13. I’ll take Carr, but Gabbert’s youth (26) is frequently overlooked. Born a full two years before “young” Colin Kaepernick.

    His previous difficulties may have been simple brain connection maturation issues. Or, he will revert to his awful old self. Time will tell.

      1. Karr has done better than I thought he would, both last year and this year, but I am with Grant that it is too soon to tell if he is going to be the long-term answer in Oakland.

        As for Gabbert, he is overall playing how I expected him to play, maybe a bit better. He looks to be a decent starter short-term. I do not see any evidence yet that he may become more than that.

      2. Crowning Qb’s prematurely is the name of the game. They have become inconsistent like pitchers where they appear good to great one year and then fall off a cliff or vice versa. Qb’s have one year flare ups all the time whether its Derek anderson making the pro bowl w the browns Josh freeman and Matt kassel throwing for 27 TD in a season. More recently Josh McCown Nick Foles RG3 (our own promising Qb who could consievably be out of the league in 2 years) Even the veterans have ups and downs like Eli Throwing 28 picks or jay Cutler game to game.
        In todays NFL its almost like you have to be consistently good for 5 years straight before people can be sure ur not a mirage (interesting what the Colts will do once Luck is healthy as MH has played better than AL this year but i think its just an abberation and AL is still a franchise QB)

  14. This is not a reasonable comparison for a number of reasons, most notably Gabbert has 4 games played this season, but there is also TD passes to look at and Carr is far ahead in that category.

    The best comparison would be to look at how each did in their rookie seasons with comparable talent around them.

    Gabbert had a 50% completion percentage, 5.36 Avg, 12 TD’s and 11 int’s.

    Carr had a 58% completion percentage, 5.46 Avg. 21 TD’s and 12 Int’s.

    The big difference in their respective situations is that Gabbert had a great running game to support him while Carr did not. Carr was the offense for Oakland and threw it almost 200 more times than Gabbert did.

    The second years for both are night and day. Gabbert didn’t play the whole season or play well while Carr has taken off and looks like he could be a Franchise QB.

      1. That is likely a product of both playing for bad teams Grant. Oakland added some talent at WR and improved the Oline and Carr has grown a lot in year two, although he still has a propensity to throw a game away instead of being patient.

        In Gabberts defense he did not have much of a chance to flourish in Jax and may just now be realizing the potential that was hoped for when he was drafted.

        1. Yeah, it’s interesting. Obviously different styles of quarterbacks, and I’d take Carr over Gabbert. But they both played for bad teams and had similar net results despite all the TD passes Carr threw.

      2. W/L is not always the best measurement of a QB. I mean Rex Grossman has a career winning record and a SB ring. Both have awful records as a product of bad teams. The other stats used are also a bad comparison. If you use those stats to compare QB’s, Tyrod Taylor is better than Tom Brady. Taylor is posting a ypa of 8.01 and 64.9%, while Brady is at a ypa of 7.72 and a 63.7%. Carr is the better QB.

  15. Asked Gerald Hodges about Kadeem Carey’s 11-yard run on 3rd-and-10 at end of 4th q. Hodges said he doesn’t remember the play. Good to know.

  16. I’d take Carr, but Gabbert has done really well with a worse supporting cast than Carr. Joe Montana says don’t let Gabbert get away, and somehow I trust his judgment more than Grant or Kawakami.

  17. Eric Branch @Eric_Branch
    #Browns Donte Whitner on Blaine Gabbert: “(He’s) is doing a pretty good job with what they’re giving him to do. They simplified the offense”

    Eric Branch @Eric_Branch
    Whitner on Gabbert (2 of 2): “… When things aren’t there, he’s using his legs. He’s far better of an athlete than I ever thought

    “sneaky athletic”

  18. Cam Inman ✔ @CamInman
    Ex-49er, now Browns’ Whitner: Harbaugh was the one that really kept that thing together and really helped us understand what it takes to win

  19. Can’t say I’ve watched enough of Carr this season (plenty last year), but what I like about him is he’s looking to make big plays. It leads to mistakes, but it’s tied to his confidence. Very good leader. His accuracy wanes sometimes (miss to Crabtree as a prime example), but he has good pocket presence, good movement, and decent athleticism. I think he’s the best in his class so far. His line this year is top-10, a big change from last year, and Amari Cooper is a poor-man’s Antonio Brown (which is far better than anything SF has). His numbers last year were pretty terrible, but that was a function of the team around him as much as anything.

    Gabbert has shown excellent pocket awareness and escapability. He is better than Kap when he breaks contain because he is looking to throw first and has just a shade less in-line speed (4.64 40 if I remember right). He is mostly accurate, but not remarkable; good accuracy on the move. Very good deep balls from the pocket (gets it up high, not just far), but not a lot of mid-range throws yet to have an opinion. His reads are actually very good, though not elite. Doing all of this with a limited cast surrounding him (bottom-5 line, running game averaging <3 yards/carry, TE injuries, Boldin is our best WR and can't get open v. man coverage…). In short, you've seen him throw short and scramble because he has to… and he has done it very well while showing flashes of being a very good QB when given time. He is a better version of Alex Smith, which is all good as long as you're paying him commensurately. I'll be willing to bet he's a top-15 QB next year IF we get A Davis back, 2014 Kilgore back, and he's top-10 if we get league-average play from our WRs (this is the biggest if).

    Contracts included, I'd take the younger guy with more years under control, but for 2016, I'd take Gabbert.

    1. Gabbert runs a 4.61 40. Kap runs a 4.53.

      Kap has really good acceleration and will use his pure straight line speed to run away from people in the open field. Gabbert doesn’t strike me as having the same acceleration and I suspect more secondary defenders would eventually catch him over long distances.

      Gabbert is more laterally quick with shake and bake. I think that serves him well in the backfield when evading pass rushers and moving to reset his feet. Kap was more stiff about moving laterally in the pocket and this allowed defenders with proper angles to sack him (not to mention that Kap didn’t usually play to reset his feet, buy time, and hit a different read in the progression).

      1. Yes, Kap does have more straight line speed, once he gets going. How that translated in the passing game was that he was able to run out of bounds very quickly. Except on the few plays he could find a crease. Once defenses concentrated on keeping him contained in the pocket the dance was over.

        I am encouraged that Blaine runs with his eyes downfield looking to pass. When he does decide to run he is decisive.

        Yes, you have heard it hear. Blaine will be the starter for at least the next three years and lead the team into the playoffs.

        Get on the Blaine Train with me! :)

      2. “Gabbert doesn’t strike me as having the same acceleration and I suspect more secondary defenders would eventually catch him over long distances.”

        On his 44-yard TD run he was running away from a LB in Anderson that ran a 4.54s 40. Not just maintaining the distance, but actually widening the gap. None of the secondary players chasing him looked like they made any ground either. He’s plenty fast.

      3. Kap certainly has more straight line speed, but he doesn’t have great acceleration nor can he change directions quickly. Gabbert seems to have better escapability and may be a better open field runner. Didn’t know he was that good an athlete. And it’s funny for me to have a fair amount of confidence in him when after last year’s preseason I thought he was a bust without hope.

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