Comparing Brian Hoyer’s past 17 games to every other NFL QB’s past 17 games

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San Francisco 49ers starting quarterback Brian Hoyer played 17 games the past two seasons — six for the Chicago Bears in 2016 and 11 for the Houston Texans in 2015. Here are his stats from those 17 games:

62.8 completion percentage, 4,051 yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 25 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 93.7 quarterback rating.

Pretty good numbers, right? Here’s how they stack up against every other NFL starting quarterback’s numbers from their past 17 games:

1. Matt Ryan: 397-570, 69.9 completion %, 5278 yards, 9.3 yards/attempt, 40 TDs, 8 INTs, 116.3 rating.
2. Tom Brady: 370-549, 67.4 completion %, 4412 yards, 8.0 yards/attempt, 33 TDs, 3 INTs, 109.5 rating.
3. Aaron Rodgers: 429-654, 65.6 completion %, 4719 yards, 7.2 yards/attempt, 41 TDs, 8 INTs, 102.6 rating.
4. Drew Brees: 503-715, 70.3 completion %, 5531 yards, 7.7 yards/attempt, 38 TDs, 15 INTs, 101.9 rating.
5. Kirk Cousins: 418-621, 67.3 completion %, 5093 yards, 8.2 yards/attempt, 28 TDs, 12 INTs, 99.3 rating.
6. Sam Bradford: 462-646, 71.5 completion %, 4577 yards, 7.1 yards/attempt, 23 TDs, 6 INTs, 99.2 rating.
7. Matthew Stafford: 416-633, 65.7 completion %, 4625 yards, 7.3 yards/attempt, 27 TD, 10 INTs, 94.9 rating.
8. Derek Carr: 401-631, 63.5 completion %, 4335 yards, 6.9 yards/attempt, 30 TDs, 8 INTs, 94.2 rating.
9. Russell Wilson: 372-574, 64.8 completion %, 4416 yards, 7.7 yards/attempt, 24 TDs, 11 INTs, 94.1 rating.
10. Ben Roethlisberger: 416-634, 65.6 completion %, 4768 yards, 7.5 yards/attempt, 35 TDs, 19 INTs, 94.0 rating.
11. Brian Hoyer: 358-569, 62.9 completion %, 4,051 yards, 7.1 yards/attempt, 25 TDs, 7 INTs, 93.7 rating.
12. Andrew Luck: 390-628, 62.1 completion %, 4723 yards, 7.5 yards/attempt, 35 TDs, 16 INTs, 93.1 rating.
13. Marcus Mariota: 300-496, 60.5 completion %, 3732 yards, 7.5 yards/attempt, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 92.9 rating.
14. Ryan Tannehill: 357-540, 66.1 completion %, 4126 yards, 7.6 yards/attempt, 22 TDs, 13 INTs, 92.6 rating.
15. Andy Dalton: 367-568, 64.6 completion %, 4265 yards, 7.5 yards/attempt, 18 TDs, 9 INTs, 91.2 rating.
16. Alex Smith: 357-535, 66.7 completion % 3783 yards, 7.1 yards/attempt, 19 TDs, 11 INTs, 90.4 rating.
17. Tyrod Taylor: 300-482, 62.2 completion %, 3384 yards, 7.0 yards/attempt, 17 TDs, 7 INTs, 88.9 rating.
18. Philip Rivers: 370-613, 60.4 completion %, 4614 yards, 7.5 yards/attempt, 35 TDs, 22 INTs, 87.8 rating.
19. Eli Manning: 401-641, 62.6 completion %, 4329 yards, 6.8 yards/attempt, 28 TDs, 16 INTs, 86.5 rating.
20. Carson Palmer: 394-649, 60.7 completion %, 4267 yards, 7.1 yards/attempt, 29 TDs, 16 INTs, 84.7 rating rating.
21. Jameis Winston: 374-614, 60.9 completion %, 4415 yards, 7.2 yards/attempt, 28 TDs, 20 INTs, 84.4 rating.
22. Joe Flacco: 463-716, 64.5 completion %, 4616 yards, 6.4 yards/attempt, 21 TDs, 17 INTs, 82.7 rating.
23. Colin Kaepernick: 290-502, 57.8 completion %, 3356 yards, 6.7 yards/attempt, 20 TDs, 9 INTs, 83.9 rating.
24. Cam Newton: 308-566, 54.4 completion %, 3944 yards, 7.0 yards/attempt, 21 TDs, 14 INTs, 78.5 rating.
25. Blake Bortles: 385-657, 58.6 completion %, 4144 yards, 6.3 yards/attempt, 23 TDs, 18 INTs, 77.5 rating.
26. Brock Osweiler: 342-571, 59.9 completion %, 3488 yards, 6.1 yards/attempt, 17 TDs, 18 INTs, 74.2 rating.

Here are my questions for you:

  1. How do you explain Hoyer’s high ranking?
  2. Is Hoyer a good quarterback, or do these stats make him seem better than he is?

This article has 256 Comments

  1. I think that he is probably a good QB in the right system. If the current powers believe that he can do the job, I will put my trust in them. Kap. is sitting at 23, not the best place on the list. If Hoyer stays healthy we could have a very good year. This year we are stocked with some real offensive weapons. The defense looks a lot better than last year. with what we have now we should fall somewhere between 8 and 8 up to 10 and 6 if things fall right.

  2. 1. Lots of on the field experience, intelligence and quick data processing.
    2. Hoyer is an overachiever, and one that was hand selected by Shanny. You could say Hoyer’s his Golden Gate Bridge until he’s able to upgrade the position, whether that’s Beathard, Captain Kirk, Sam Darnold or another quarterback from what is supposed to be a very talented NFL draft class in 2018.

  3. Yes Kaep is a ways down on that list, but look what he was surrounded by. Don’t forget he rushed for a few hundred last year too. Funny he was our only legit weapon last year, now he’s not good enough to even get a look. What a joke….I’m supposed to get hyped to watch Brian stinkn Hoyer at qb, give me a break.

    1. Shut that BS sympathy up. Kap is rightfully close to the bottom of that list. He’s been less than mediocre since ’14. These excuses for him are getting out of hand.

    2. I have nothing against Kaep or his protest or anything. He decided to leave the team on his own to test free agency. He’s not on this roster because it was his decision.

      1. Actually Lynch had said he&Shanahan informed Kap he didn’t fit Shanahan’s system and if Kap didn’t opt out, they were going to cut him!

    3. So true – NFL is biased as hell for not signing him – with literally half his receivers on IR AND HIS DEFENSE on IR as well, he was racking up huge numbers. I got really pissed when NFL.com put Cam Newton at 43 in the top 100

      CAM NEWTON SUCKED. The truth is Kaepernick was actually better than Newton in terms of stats and THE GAME. LOOK. WITH A STACKED DEFENSE AND WAY MORE WEAPONS THAN KAP, CAM GOT 6 wins. KAP RACKS UP WAY BETTER STATS ON A TRASH TEAM, AND LIFTS THAT TEAM TO THE #4 rushing offense in the league, while Carolina’s great dual threat Cam gets them to top #10.
      Rushing.

      Give me a break. Cam should not even be top 100, let alone top 50. On top of that, there are writers who say he belongs in the top 10.

    4. Kap had his chance and did nothing with it. He needed to go whether you agree or not. New culture says it all.

      1. I know it was time for KAP to go, but its just hard for me to accept that the guy that was our hero for that brief time when our niners were good is gone. I can accept anybody else from that time going, but not KAP. Kap was the guy. It s hard for me to accept we have to enter the darkness again, and begin the rebuild, after the brief taste of victory that Kap and the rest of the team brought us.

        1. That team was 100% about the D and outstanding Oline. #7 was a scrub QB flat out. Never learned to read a deff or make good decisions. Then he went out and made fool of himself by disrespecting the men and women in blue. NO NFL wants that kind of flak from their backup qb.

    5. So tired of the kaep excuses…bottom line, he wasn’t improving and the fact that this new coach and gm didn’t think enough of him to keep him says alot….add to that, no other team thinks he’s worth the trouble…and it’s not his flag stance, it’s his history of not learning from his mistakes…every NFL exec has said that for years. Let’s be honest, as good as Harbaugh was, that was his one glaring mistake

    6. Get over it. Kaep is exactly where he belongs – out of the NFL. Kaep always had two major flaws – passing inaccuracy and seeing the whole field. He would lock on to one receiver and overthrow or bounce the ball in that direction. All the other NFL teams are aware of his weaknesses. Passing accuracy can only be refined with repetition and practice. After all the years in college and the NFL, Kaep has never been able to develop this skill. Other teams now realize what I have known since watching his Nevada college games. Hoyer’s accuracy is better than most realize and unlike Kaep, he is able to hit the receivers in stride. The 49er’s should have never drafted Kaepernick. The 49ers wasted all these years with Kaep instead of finding a franchise QB. Kaep should consider the Canadian Football League to better utilize his abilities.

  4. Hoyer will be productive this year. Given his experience and familiarity with Shanahan’s system, I expect similar numbers in 2017.

  5. None of the 10 above him were available, so he was the best guy they could get. That’s a good signing from that point of view especially considering the contracts of those ahead on this list. I guess
    this discussion is quick filler to pound out a blog, but nothing will be really conclusive til into early part of reg season. Shanny’s post game presser after Game 4 will be very interesting.

  6. 1. Most of Hoyer’s stats came from 2015 in Houston with Deandre Hopkins who had 1521 YDs and they had a 1000 yard back. Hoyer has previously worked with our QB whisperer. Hoyer himself gets credit too.
    2. Yes, and he will have a career year this season.

  7. Here’s a primer for this season. We will see a lot of play action passes. Hoyer will excel at this.

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000412387/article/kyle-shanahan-behind-brian-hoyers-browns-success

    Hoyer is now doing his best Schaub impression, repeatedly running play-action to take advantage of linebackers stepping toward the line of scrimmage and leaving open windows at the second level of defense.

    In Cleveland’s 31-10 clinic against the Pittsburgh Steelers, five of Hoyer’s completions went for 24, 31, 31, 42 and 51 yards. All five of those throws came via play-action or boot-action.

    That was not a one-game aberration. Hoyer has 26 passes that have gone for at least 20 yards or a touchdown this season. Only one of them has come out of a formation with Hoyer under center and no variation of play-action.

    Hoyer’s 138.9 passer rating out of play-action leads the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. His 12.0 yards per attempt out of play-action is second only to Kirk Cousins’ 13.0.

  8. Suddenly, Hoyer’s signing appears to make sense. But as usual, you have to wait until game 5 or 6 before you can render a verdict. His durability is another issue.

    I like what I see though.

  9. Bottom line great signing to take us to next year..we didn’t overpay and he will b solid enough to win games. He knows the system which will help others. He’s a bridge to get to our next qb.

  10. You can’t. You can write a narrative fallacy and mine the data. But the real NFL isn’t so pretty. For example, when Plummer went to Denver everybody was talking about his growth. Plummer said no, it was the situation and luck, not growth as a QB. Jake Plummer (all Denver) QB ratings (2003 – 2006):

    91.2; 84.5; 90.2; 68.8 (7-4 as a QB that last year.)

    In the end he was Denver’s Colin Kaepernick. (59.1% completion, undisciplined, poor pocket skills, etc.) who needed a strong team to carry him. So while he did show some flash in the pan years, and got the media and fans hyped-up, in the end he was never a particularly good QB and never really became the guy Walsh envisioned and wanted the 49ers to draft.

    Of course, Plummer also didn’t have Walsh as a QB and Shanahan (the Elder) got the most positive use out of him. But he did have the advantage of not throwing so many late-game, Hail Mary/Desperation INTs, his problem with the horrible Cardinals. The ones that, out-of-context, made him look like he was the worst QB in the NFL for years instead of an erratic, so-so QB.

    And there are plenty of other one-season wonders. In 2014 people thought the Jets were wrong as Sanchez put up an 88.4 QB rating under Kelly. They weren’t. Sanchez, like Icarus, plunged back to the ground. And let’ s not forget Nick Foles and his 119.2 in 2013 under Kelly (and his lifetime 88.1 lifetime QB rating because of it).

    So, really, be optimistic (I always am, no point in giving up (contest or hope) before you’ve lost, no matter the odds), but don’t over-think it as you’re doing that too much already with Hyde and your man-crush on Williams. Which, in turn, drives you to commit a lot of analytical sins when it comes to sample size.

    Is he bad? Is he good? We’ll find out over the next couple of years. But the last 17 games, at best, can only say he has has a positive trend and might be turning into a good NFL QB. Or, like Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez, a false-trend born out of a good year’s worth of games that fools people… Like Kaepernick last year, who, like Foles & Sanchez, put a good statistical profile, but wasn’t a good QB.

    1. In case you don’t know what I mean:

      The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.

      —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan

      The press, fans, coaches and players are almost always narrative fallacy machines. And the reason is not mendacity. It’s a literal function of our brain. We seek simple, fact-rich narratives in which our biases feel the most comfortable.

      Sometimes we’re just kidding ourselves a bit. Sometimes we become complete delusional like Seby as we obsess and refuse to see the whole of what’s in front of us and focus on just one confirming detail.

      1. Delusional? Maybe those are the posters who say that Hoyer is confident, is becoming the team leader, and expects to lead the team to the playoffs, just like we had posters declaring Gabbert would do the same last season.
        .
        Since Hoyer and Kaep have .500 winning percentages, maybe you should look at their playoff records. Kaep wins that matchup by default,
        .
        I may be a lone voice in the wilderness on this site, but maybe the Niners should ask their own players if they want Kaep at least to be able to compete for a job. Maybe they should ask Kerley what he thinks.

        1. Yes Seb, those who predicted Gabbert would go to the pro bowl or lead us to a 10-6 were delusional too. Just like hoping that Barkley or Hoyer suddenly becomes a franchise QB is delusional. Here’s the different though, those folks know when to let it go. You however just like your sparring partner can’t keep a certain QB who no longer plays for the team off the blog. Let it go, watch and route for the team we have.

          No one is sorry to see Gabbert go. When Palmer gets hurt next season, it will be fun to watch our DL wreck Gabbert’s day. Hoyer is just good enough to get you frustrated like his season with the Browns and with the Texans. If he plays that well then it will have been better than the last two seasons for sure. I think if we win more it will be primarily due to the improvement in our defense.

          Hoyer has a history of playing decent and then getting benched for poor play. I don’t see this changing. Barkley has no real history and has failed to win a starting job. Those guys played for a 3 win team last season. Hoyer can’t carry the team without a great supporting cast. We’re not quite there yet.

          1. Wilson, I will root for the Niners to win, no matter who the QB is, just like I rooted for Gabbert to win last season. I refrained from ripping him until after he benched himself with his poor play.
            .
            I agree, the Niners are at least 2 years from returning to relevance. One can only hope that the Seahawks get older, the Cards have QB problems of their own, and a young Rams HC gets in over his head.

            1. IDK, I watched it happen before, maybe Hoyer is Steve DeBerg, Joe Williams is Paul Hofer, and a third round pick will get some playing time when it won’t crush him. It no longer feels hopeless.

        2. Maybe they should also ask each teammate if they are for or against the BLM movement so we have an idea as to why Kaepernick would be so popular among them.

          Ask Crabtree how good of a QB Kaep is. He left before Kaep began to see himself as the BLM flagbearer.

        3. Too, let’s ask Lynch and Shanahan what they think… Seb, both these guys are on the record with how they feel about Kaep. You cling to the ‘door is open’ option but you should carefully read the full Lynch/Shanahan record regarding Kaep and the 9ers. They are politely moving on.

          Oh, Kaep ain’t comin’ back…

        4. True dat

          Simple logic

          KAP = better rushing (4th ranked rushing offense in entire league)
          KAP = very good at running bootleg and play action
          Shanahan = offense centered on running play action and bootleg
          Good,play action offense = good rushing
          KAP = good offense

          1. KAP ability to read defenses designed to stop KAP = ?
            KAP staring down receivers = ?
            KAP less-than-quick release = ?
            KAP holding on to ball and taking sacks = ?

        1. And I am referring to Moses ZD, whom I rarely see eye to eye.

          Has Brian Hoyer been the 11th best QB in the NFL over the span of the last 17 games? I doubt it. Numbers, do in fact lie, within a relatively small sample size. That said, I like his fit in Kyle’s system and I expect him to end up somewhere near the middle of the pack, which would be an obvious improvement over the last few years.

          As for Kaepernick, it’s clear by way of a much larger sample size that he really hasn’t improved as a passer (and a strong argument can be made that Colin has actually regressed for a number of reasons), and his legs are only going to get slower with age. In the NFL, the old adage applies to Colin: If you aren’t getting better, you’re getting worse!

  11. Maybe a better way to measure Hoyer rather than cherry picking 17 games is to look at his win total and to ask the Bears, Texans and Browns fans what they think of Hoyer?

    Remember he got pulled in both theTexans and Browns for poor play. And list his injuries in the last 3-4 years. Feels an awful lot like you’re just telling the part of the story you want here.

    He could play well and he could really bomb too considering his whole career. He’s a stop gap QB at best.

    1. Yup, and to see what the Niners really think of him, just look at what they are paying him. They are paying him backup money, not franchise QB money.

      1. Delusional and irrational………….a true zealot……………

        Your getting boring again, Seb. Still trying to couch the debate as if anyone thought Hoyer was the long term answer, and then attacking from that FALSE perspective………..so transparent.

  12. Brian Hoyer is a bad QB. The worst and most dangerous part of Hoyer is he will have games where you think, alright – this guy isn’t awful. Those games are fools gold. Hoyer’s best year was in 2015. Hoyer capped off that year with the worst performance I have ever seen by any QB in a playoff game ever. I’ll trust Shanny that he knows how to manage a bad qb but hopefully this “solution” only lasts 1 year.

    1. Houston – You’d make a good financial advisor. They also believe that past performance is a guarantee of future success (while at the same time warning us that it’s really not true).

      1. I wanted to add that I missed the playoff game that you refer to as one of the worst performances ever but I was at the 49ers/Vikings playoff game when Joe Montana went off the rails and was benched by Walsh. Can’t remember Montana ever playing worse but he did manage to right the ship and win two more Super Bowls. I’m going to keep the faith and bet that past performance is NOT a guarantee of future results.

        1. Yup. I remember that game too. Would be fun to identify the very worst playoff performances by ‘elite’ QBs since 1970.

          1. Fran Tarkenton — January 1975, MIN vs PIT, 11 of 26 for 102 yards and 3 INTs, 0 TDs. Vikings lost.

          2. Some modern day examples.

            http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1021524-the-worst-qb-playoff-performances-in-nfl-history

            Donovan McNabb: Eagles, 2003-04 NFC Championship

            Completing just 10 passes on 22 attempts for 100 yards, and throwing three picks, McNabb had a rating of 19.3 against Carolina.

            Peyton Manning: Colts, 2003-04 AFC Championship

            There, Manning threw four picks (three to Ty Law), had a Tebow-esque 48.9 completion percentage and a passer rating of 35.5.

            Brett Favre: Packers, 2001-02 NFC Divisional

            Favre threw six interceptions to two TDs, and finished with a 53.5 rating.

        2. There are 6 other NFL teams who believe past performance is a good indicator of future results. Otherwise, Brian Hoyer wouldn’t be on his 7th NFL team in 10 years and his 4th different team in 4 years. Hoyer is a bad qb.

    2. Hoyer capped off that year with the worst performance I have ever seen by any QB in a playoff game ever.

      If somehow this team can get to the playoffs where we once again witness Hoyer’s patented collapse, he and the rest of the team will have performed a regular season minor miracle.

  13. Any QB at the NFL level is capable in the right system. I don’t think year one will be the greatest season of Hoyer’s career because the rest of the offensive players have to learn the system. That takes time and timing. I think his season will be middle of the road. As a result of that, I think Barkley will be playing by week 11.

  14. How do you explain Hoyer’s high ranking? Well, the numbers–as you’ve mined and represented them–speak for themselves. Caveat–I assume your math is flawless, should you have done any calculations. When surrounded by mostly professional talent and playing within a system that can function adequately under most conditions, this is what you get…an OK but not HOF QB.

    Is Hoyer a good quarterback, or do these stats make him seem better than he is? See last sentence above.

    For some, any QB who isn’t in the top 5 is a ‘bad QB’…

    1. That’s the crux of the of the question, Cassie: what does “Good QB” mean?

      Hoyer is good to ok, but likely to never be great. Given his cheap price, understanding of KS’s system, and apparent comprehension of what his capabilities are, I’d say he’s a very good fit for the 49ers this year.

      The only thing better would be if CJB turns out to be Joe Montana, redux.

    2. In truth I haven’t watched Hoyer enough yet, but my current assumption is that he may be like Steve DeBerg. Somewhat limited, but can move the chains a bit.

      1. BT,

        Good call.

        Houston noted that six teams didn’t want Hoyer, and that’s undisputed, but what also can’t be disputed is BH was KS’s QB in Cleveland and BH was picked by KS to be his QB here.

  15. The high ranking is a factor of being on a strong Texan team with good offensive weapons and the top ranked defense. With such a good supporting cast, he did well, until it really counted. Then he imploded.
    .
    Maybe this is another case of confirmation bias and a false narrative. Maybe another stat to look at, is his playoff stats. In his only playoff game, he threw 4 picks like the DBs were the intended receivers and fumbled once while being shut out and shut down. Hoyer had a 15.9 QBR for that game, and looked not only incompetent, but was rattled and panicked.
    .
    Kaep, on the other hand, has a 4-2 road playoff record, came within 5 yards of winning a SB, and one pass from returning, while setting playoff records. He equaled Joe Montana’s record by being the second QB to pass for 300 yards while running for at least 50 yards in a SB, something Hoyer could only dream of.
    .
    Is Hoyer a good QB? He is a journeyman, on his 7th team in 10 years, and has yet to show he can last an entire season without becoming injured, because he is a statue in the pocket.
    .
    I fully expect Barkley to out compete Hoyer, because Grant said that Hoyer was inaccurate in the OTAs and Mini camp. CJB is too raw, and needs to work on his arm strength because Grant said he floated passes. In my humble opinion, Kaep is superior to all 4 QBs presently on the team. He has superior skillsets, and is way more accomplished.
    .
    I hope Lynch and KS can be flexible and change their minds, like Lynch did during the draft. I hope they will want to win so much, they will do everything in their power to win. I hope they do not let emotions cloud their judgement. I hope they remember that they still left some doors open. With Kaep at QB, I think the Niners can avoid a losing season.

    1. Kap on the other hand? What kind of garbage is that? So ONE playoff game makes Hoyer a bad QB? How about Kap’s turnover debacle vs SEA? Didn’t he have THREE turnovers in one quarter? 17 past games is a really good sample. It’s not the final say but it’s a good indication just like Kap’s last 17 game which consistency wise have been atrocious.

      Can we stop bringing this guy up? He’s done. Not a 49er anymore. Get over it.

      1. Maybe you should look at the total picture. Baalke dismantled that SB team. and the Niner defense set records in futility.
        .
        Yes, I will concede that Kaep did have 3 turnovers in that game, but he also came back and was one pass from defeating them. I remember one play, when Kaep scrambled around, bought time for his receivers to get open, moved towards the line of scrimmage to draw the defense towards him, then with a flick of his wrist, threw over Earl Thomas to a wide open Boldin for a TD. Kaep also ran for 131 yards in that loss, so the QB play was not atrocious, like Hoyer was in that Texans-KC game.
        .
        I am being patient, and will wait, like the Niners are doing, until the Cousins situation is sorted out. Lynch left a door open, so now that they have film on the present QBs, they will clearly see that Kaep will give them their best chance to win. Now that the whole team has improved, Kaep would have a better supporting cast to help him lead the Niners to victory.

        1. It’s hard to give Kaep credit for a non completed comeback when his turnovers were what allowed the Seahawks to turn a 7 or deficit into a 6 point lead and he never scored again.

            1. Nope. It’s over. Let that image of Kaep riding away burn into your soul… Grow up strong and straight Seb, just like Kaep asked you to.

              1. Cassie, now that Baalke is gone, I think the new regime will not let emotions sway them, and they will not play favorites, or insist on making players play out of position. KS will not force his QB to be only a pocket passer. That is why he had them roll out and run bootlegs, both things that play to Kaep’s strengths.
                .
                The Niner coaches now have film of the OTAs and mini camp, and the present Niner QBs have amply shown their limitations.
                .
                Sure am glad that Lynch apologized to Kaep for the leaks and smears. It was as if he wanted to keep that door open for his return. KS may have stated that Kaep has a different skillset than the present QBs, and may intone that he does not want to be bothered with trying to coach a Super Bowl QB, but if he can convince Lynch to change his mind about JW, Lynch should be able to convince KS that Kaep would give them their best chance to win.

              2. Cassie, speaking of gunfighters, I remember a scene from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. They went to South America and asked for a job guarding mine shipments.
                .
                The mine foreman asked the Sundance kid to get out his gun and shoot a rock. He missed. The mine foreman turned away in disgust, then the Sundance Kid asked if he was allowed to move. he mine foreman said OK, and the Sundance Kid moved like lightning and blasted the rock to bits.
                .
                Kaep is like the Sundance Kid. If allowed to move, he will be deadly accurate. The Kid got the job, just like I think Kaep will get a job. It may not be with the Niners, but he will be able to showcase his talents, because some team will want to win so much, they will overlook the blackballing.

  16. It’ll be nice to see if Hoyer stay healthy & come close to those numbers. If so it will make it not necessary to go after Cousins and we could get better & keep building through the draft. If Hoyer can be a 3 year starter rather than a 1 year stop gap that would be ideal to then draft a highly ranked QB that will learn in Year 1 & challenge year 2

  17. Generally, ratings of 90 or higher are the standard for a quality NFL QB. All things being equal, a minimum 90 rating should be good enough for an overall competent team to win most of its games. Having watched Hoyer play several games he possesses the ability to achieve a 90 plus QB rating with decent players surrounding him. If Hoyer had played the last three years with the 49ers he would have been the undisputed starter even on these bad teams. That speaks volumes in terms of past QB play and Hoyer’s quality.

  18. My impressions:

    1. Hoyer is talented. You don’t last this long in the NFL with this many teams without coaches and scouts finding a sufficient base.

    2. Hoyer is flawed. You don’t move through this many NFL teams at this important a position without those same coaches and scouts feeling they can do better.

    3. Hoyer’s best year was with Shanahan.

    4. In 2017, Hoyer will be better than any rookie QB.

    5. If the 49ers defense – where upper end drafted talent is concentrated – significantly improves this year to the point where the 49ers are in games in the 4th quarter and a balanced offensive attack is viable Hoyer could lead the 49ers to a record between 7-9 and 9-7.

  19. Grant
    Thanks for the straight-forward factual comparisons. Apples to apples suggests much.
    To me, it is also better not to draw too many or too refined details by extrapolating from this raw data, there’s still a lot of wait and see for SF fans.
    So asking us to toss around the implications is fine as a not too meaningful exercise. At least for those of us not blinded by obsession.

    1. Instead of arguing about whether the glass is half empty or half full, we should be wondering why the glass is twice as big as it needs to be. Says a lot about all of us – spending way more time wondering than watching.

  20. I’ve been a niner’s fan my entire life (even though I live on the east coast!!) Followed them through every up and down since I was old enough to understand the game. The niner’s have had a rough couple of years, not to mention changing their entire coaching staff 3 years in a row, and losing every significant player on there roster, save Kap and Hyde. I can’t think of any team that would come back from those circumstances. The team I’ve always held so near to my heart and soul has been through a lot, but I truly feel they’ve finally made the right choices, filled out the key positions that have been abandoned by previous talents, and there ready to kick some ass. I think this year will be one of vindication and retribution. I’m saying playoff worthy team, who’s with me?!?!?

  21. Hoyer’s performance this coming season will depend on:
    1. Offensive line protection
    2. Running game
    3. Receivers ability to get open and catch the ball.

    Top NFL QB’s are those who can quickly find the right receiver, under pressure, often on the run, and give receivers a chance to catch the ball when they become open.
    That’s why they are rare.

    My guess with Hoyer is he will need running game and time in the pocket to produce for the 49ers..

  22. Using the previously mentioned investment analogy. First off, past performance is NOT any assurance let alone guarantee of future results. In portfolio management, in high risk sectors (like qb) the idea is risk assessment, long positions with covering hedge strategies and a watchful eye on asset allocation. In this regard Hoyer is good, they can see what happens while seeing if better opportunities might come up. But Hoyer might out-perform, we don’t know.

    With investments, the easiest decision is buy. The hardest is sell. 9ers made the hard call on Kaep, to let him go. If Kaep nails it somewhere else, well this happens. Ever get out of a position and then it jumps hard right after you sell? It happens, just gotta say its one element of an overall strategy. In investing, stick with your top line strategy and know along the way you will have +’s and -‘s that happen.

    I like 9ers top level strategy. I wish Kaep well, but it will not be with 9ers. He is not a fit in the portfolio.

    Maybe I should check in with my investment team on 9er qb options? My main guy is in Denver, he’s got the insider read on Denver which should have been a Kaep destination.

  23. Yes, the Niners better think this through. If Kaep does well on another team, they will look clueless for letting him go.
    .
    Of course, that is why the haters do not want him ever to play again.
    .
    However, this will play out like the Blacklisting of Hollywood in the 50’s. The NFL will be likened to the Mccarthyites, and it will be another black mark on their brand, just like their homophobia, reefer madness and coverup about CTE.

    1. Nice touch of drama Seb–pump it up some more? Could become an award winning five part series on HBO. The character Seb (Lynch’s crutch) could be played by Joe Pesci. Commissioner Goodell could be played by Christopher Walken.

      BTW, I don’t think the 9ers are concerned about looking clueless regarding Kaep’s future play–should Kaep play well this season. I think the 9ers of today are above junior high shtick.

      1. Now that Baalke was booted to the curb, they will take an honest assessment about their present QB situation, and make the proper adjustments.
        .
        Still waiting for the Cousins drama to unfold, then we might see some movement.

  24. Out of the past 17 games he was the starter in 14 of them. In the games he started his stats are:

    60.77% 3429(244 per game) yards 6.9 avg 21td 6 int

    Still decent but nothing special. Problem with Hoyer is that over those 17 games he was 6-11. Guy is not a winner.

    1. He will need the Alex Smith treatment. Unreal play calling, solid running game and a good defense. 10 wins under this formula is not impossible.
      I’m not sold on Hoyer but its possible Barkley or CJ provide a good 2nd option to come in and play good football.

      1. He had a 3rd ranked defense and 15th ranked running game at the Texans which lead to a 9-7 season. I would love that from the awful seasons we’ve had the past two years. I don’t know that we have the supporting cast and maturity yet to have a defense that good. The potential is there on paper but Saleh’s defense needs to be proven on the field. Our running game has the potential to be better and our OL needs to prove it can run Shanny’s system.

        I think Hoyer’s good for 6-7 wins. 10 wins is not impossible but I believe its highly unlikely.

    2. Should have added that he was 6-8 over the games he started. Apply that to a 16 game season and you get 7(6.8 to be exact) wins. Which is how many I predicted they’d win this year.

      1. Actually the Texans were winners, 9-7. The Browns were 7-6 under Hoyer before he got replaced by Manziel. The Cardinals were 11-5 in 2014. The Bear stunk at 3-13. In 2012 the Steelers were 8-8. The Patriots are not losers. (Should be noted he had trouble getting in the starting lineup in Arizona and Pittsburgh) He came late in the seasons there.

        So other than the Bears he didn’t really play for losing teams. He had trouble beating out other QB’s at the Steelers and Cardinals. Its not like he was on the Jaguars for 5 seasons. Had he been better in Texas they would have had a much better record.

  25. Grant could write an article about bicycle maintenance or Trout fishing or time travel or shucking corn and You-know-who would make it about He Who Shall Be Unnamed..
    Case Study in OCD.

        1. Great skit. I saw somewhere that everything went fine during rehearsal. But right before they went live, Ferrell wore a different shirt. The way too small shirt made it hard for the cast to keep a straight face, except for Ferrell and Walken of course.

          I’ve got A fever and the only prescription Is more cowbell.

      1. Our high school put on that skit a few years ago with my kids in it. I was proud they chose to recognize the great polymath, Bruce Dickinson;>)

    1. I’m ready to skip TC and the 2017 season and just get to the 2018 draft when this teams future really begins.

      1. This is all a dream. Soon you’ll wake up and it will be a Tuesday in April 1964…and you could be late for school. Better hurry!

  26. It is interesting to see the QBs ranked above him. I think all of those QBs are definitely strong QBs capable of navigating a team through an NFL season and into the post season. Then the list gets choppy quickly.

    The question is, is Hoyer with the top tier or more with the Andy Dalton’s. I’d have to probably go with the latter than than the former myself.

    It was interesting to see him ranked above Luck who many consider an elite QB. Has Luck declined or not matured enough or did he have too much hype?

    I do think the sample size may be a bit narrow and could skew the results somewhat as well.

    1. Luck has been playing behind an awful Oline and been getting the crap kicked out of him. It was a great example of how to ruin a franchise QB by Ryan Grigson.

        1. I think the same. Here was a good QB who has been done a great disservice by his coaches/franchise. Hope he can right his ship! With any luck (sorry, couldn’t help myself).

      1. If that’s the case, why did he re-up w/the Colts ?….Other than the 40 million, of course…(oh yeah, the love of the game…) almost forgot about that….HAH !

  27. Bottom line for me: Can he help win while holding down the fort until our franchise QB arrives.
    Hoyer seems to fit Shanahan’ scheme but for all we know it could be Barkley that is receiving the snaps by the end of the season with a couple of cameos by C.J. toward the end of the year.
    Too many variables can take place during a long season – heck, after last year’s debacle I wouldn’t mind having old Jeff Garcia at the helm at this point.

    1. I think Barkley ends up being the starter this year. Here is also hoping CJ becomes the guy Shanny thinks he is.

  28. Hoyer is legit. His stats never point out how horrible the teams were (Skins, Bears, and the Texans carousel).

    I will not be surprised if he makes the Pro Bowl.

    1. I will not be surprised if he makes the Pro Bowl.

      Do you not think his teams were partly horrible because of him? Last year 2 posters were saying Gabbert was going to the Pro Bowl, what a joke. The Bears were bad, but the Texans were legitimate except for the offense which Hoyer lead.

      You might want to brush up on Hoyer’s career. He never played for the Redskins.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Hoyer

  29. Watching Kap play during his career at SF:

    1. Locked in on 1 receiver too often…
    2. Had absolutely no ‘touch’ with his passing.
    3. Deep ball accuracy poor.
    4. Takes a long time to release ball with his wind up motion.
    5. Looks to run too quickly.
    6. Opposing defenses became much better handling the read option and defending against Kap running over time.
    7. Loose with the ball too often.
    8. Kap has straight line speed, but not quick feet or quick moves to escape pressure.

    Kap would be good for a team with superior O-line, running game, and quality WR’s. Most of those teams already have QB’s better than Kap.

    Would AZ Cardinals have any interest in Kap next year, replacing a retiring Carson Palmer? NY Giants intetested if Eli retires next year?

  30. Cassie Baalke says:
    July 3, 2017 at 9:24 am

    let’s ask Lynch and Shanahan what they think… Seb, both these guys are on the record with how they feel about Kaep…

    . They are politely moving on.

    TomD’s Take: Shanahan and Lynch have class and move on politely…Seb is classless and persists in clogging this website with his Kapsized delusions instead of working them out at the State Hospital–Napa–which has an intake system currently available….One phone call, Seb, and you could get the help you so desperately need .

    Why Seb’s delusions are not cleared up by this horrific Kap pass makes his sanity in doubt.
    When Shanahan and Lynch reviewed these passes their immediate conlusion was: “Accuracy problems, he doesn’t fit the system; lets cut our losses ASAP and move on from this trainwreck of 1,000 different QB gurus screwing with his mechanics

    https://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/11/1/9654886/rams-have-so-little-respect-for-colin-kaepernick-they-leave-receivers

  31. hoyers no different from any qb in that he needs time for receievers to get open. he wasn’t drafted and so hes not respected. hes not the best in the nfl as a starter or the worst. somewhere in the middle. he gets hurt a lot because hes played for the worst teams in the nfl. they offered poor protection, but even worse – poor play calling. hoyers was made to stay in the pocket and wait for the receiver to get open. defences knew that and bullrushed the guy on almost every play. the guy will hold the ball and take the hit rather than get picked. if you go back to his Cleveland days you could see a big change in his play with shanahan coaching, until most of the offence was hurt. he had a decent line until they were hurt. he became hoyer the destroyer in Cleveland under shanahan and was getting a lot of respect. clevelands been dead since he and shanahan left. we will see hoyer in play action this season with different sorts of roll outs left and right with shanahan system. hoyers very good at it, and faster than most think. the defense cant key on hoyer under this system and have to drop back into coverage. when you see the defense stack the box hoyer will roll and go deep this year and burn them. that’s what happened in Cleveland. with hoyers mobility and shanahans play calling the defense cant read him or the line. this will open the running game up as well. if you think hoyers arm is weak and cant go deep, just wait a few months and see if you right. go 49ers.

  32. I believe that Hoyer is slightly above avg in games that would not be considered “big” games but is a well below avg performer in “big” games. I don’t believe that will make that much of a difference this season and is why we will pick up another QB next off season. 9ers record next year will be somewhere from 7-9 to 9-7 and if we get close to the playoffs late in the season I believe we will see a return of pick 6 Bobby.

    1. TomD,
      I agree there wasn’t much talent out there. That’s why I think we will get our starter of the future next season if he isn’t there already (Beathard)

  33. sebnynah says:
    July 3, 2017 at 9:56 am

    Yes, the Niners better think this through. If Kaep does well on another team, they will look clueless for letting him go.

    TomD’s Take: No one makes Shanahan clueless when it comes to QB analysis, Seb.

    Shanahan took one look and saw Kap doesn’t have what it takes.
    Kap’s inaccuracy is ill suited for a WCO, accounting for Shanahan’s lightning quick firing of Kap…Kap did not even make training camp.

    And lets end those NFL , Kap, political conspiracies…If Shanahan thought Kap was a fit for his WCO he would kept him and not hired Grant’s 11th ranked QB in the NFL–a stat Kap never achieved–but Montana, Young and Garcia achieved top 10.

    Can you spell QB L-O-S-E-R, SEB.

    1. Where’s your next 49er great Jarryd Hayne, Seb.

      Maybe him and can play pickup football in Golden Gate Park, sharpening their skills until the CFL has an opening.
      Then you and Prime can talk “Storms.”

  34. Shanahan has always been a successful coordinator — he’s coached top-10 offenses in six of his nine seasons — but in 2016, his offense was truly elite. What made his 2016 offense the best in the NFL?

    TomD’s Take: A man whose coached top -10 offenses 6 of 9 seasons hired a top 15 QB–Hoyer.

    Hmmm: Gosh, Seb, how do you explain those numbers when a top 11 QB in Hoyer goes to a top 10 Head Coach, in Shanahan….Could it be Shanahan knows QB’s better than you ?

    http://www.49erswebzone.com/commentary/1696-key-kyle-shanahans-offense-win-first-down/

  35. Does this mean a Niner QB might come close to a 4,000 yard season? That would make the “Lamonicas” of the Smith debate era mighty happy.

    1. ribico:

      All bets are on the 49er O-Line. If they can field a cohesive unit then a 4,000 yd season will happen.

      1. TomD, you hit the nail on the head. All this focus on QB is meaningless if the OL isn’t competent to run block or pass protect. Though certainly a headline on Hoyer is better for clicks than a headline on Beadles.

        I’ll be happy to be wrong, but I believe the Niners OL is about two players away from being competent, and by the time they get those two players, they’ll still need to replace the retired Joe Staley.

      2. Somehow a 4,000 yd season doesn’t square with Grant’s first hand OTA reporting saying Hoyer was unable to complete nothing more than outs and short crossing patterns.

        1. 569 attempts had something to do with that. Those 4000 yards came from two different seasons, 2600 in Houston and 1400 in Chicago.

      3. It takes two to tango. I’m sure the Niners had some pretty good lines in the last 20 or so years that we’ve averaged around 180 passing yds a game.

  36. All eyes on- Johnson, Reaser and Witherspoon. Who’s the #2 cornerback?

    Niners live takes a look at one of the most competitive position battles heading into training camp.

    Reaser, (26 tackles, and 5 passes defended in 28 games) and Johnson, (56 tackles, 14 pass defended and one interception in 47 games) have NFL game experience over Witherspoon. But, Witherspoon’s ball skills and upside are more impressive. He has a knack for lodging the ball out of the receiver’s hands just before the catch is made. His 22 pass break ups ranked first in college football last season.

    Player Attributes at a glance

    Reaser:
    5’10, 4.32, 40-yard dash; 22 reps of 225lbs. at 2014 combine;
    Comfortable in off man coverage, mirrors and shadows his man well
    Smooth hips (Seb would approve)
    Contributes in run defense and enjoys laying the lumber down
    Good football IQ with leader intangibles

    Johnson

    Length, 6’2, can match up against taller wide receivers and tight ends
    Good overall athlete, big and physical
    Doesn’t shy away from contact and tackles aggressively
    Average ball skills
    Position versatility, corner, nickel back and safety
    Smart with strong work ethic

    Matt Maiocco, 49ers beat writer for NBC Sports, was recently asked in a podcast who he believes would be the two starting cornerbacks in week one versus the Carolina Panthers.

    “I would say Rashard Robinson, without a question. And I would go with Keith Reaser,”

  37. Comparing players using stats is a futile attempt to enhance or mask something. All I know is Kaep is no longer a Niner and that floats my boat just fine. Using Hoyer’s stats it looks to me he will be a up and down QB with little chance of becoming really good. There is indication that he chokes in the big games, I think the sample size is a little small to conclude that.

    Defense is my main concern, would like to see a top 10 defense emerging at the end of training camp and by seasons end a solid top 10 defense. There is an abundance of high draft choices on that side of the ball, no excuses.

    1. Undercover, you and I are on the same wave length. Three #1s on DL; first rounder at LB along with Bo and top paid FA signing; Robinson a reputed top corner prospect along with 2d rounder in Witherspoon, moving best DB last year to FS. Add Dumerville and pass rush should improve. No reason to sign Dumerville unless Lynch thought talent was there for run at .500 and outside shot for last WC. Talent is present for a top defense. No excuses there.

      And, defense keeps you in games. Closes out when you’re ahead. This is where the improvements, if they come this year, will be generated. If not, 49ers are farther away than we all hope.

  38. tomd, as I recall when the browns offense fell apart because of keys injuries and drug supensions – to name a few, alex mack, josh gorden, Jordan Cameron to name a few, were replaced with free agent rookies or off the practice squad because they had no depth. a norm with the Cleveland browns but how do you think the 49ers can fair if this should happen this season. its a difficult to learn system, it takes a lot of time to learn it. if they have a string of injuries do they have the depth to stay in it if they could manage to win 7, 8 games.

  39. Hoyer is a play it safe system QB. He’s been on talented teams that don’t ask him to do much so his numbers appear to be decent. A look at his win/loss record tells you what you need to do about Hoyer. Most of the QB’s that are in the same range on that list are winning QB’s. Bree’s is the example of a good QB on a bad team. He is the only thing that team has so he has to overproduce just to get 8 wins in his last 17 games.

    Hoyer is not a good QB, he’s an average back up. His sole purpose is to not sink your season for the 4-6 weeks your starter is out.

  40. Brian Hoyer: 358-569, 62.9 completion %, 4,051 yards, 7.1 yards/attempt, 25 TDs, 7 INTs, 93.7 rating.

    Matt Ryan in 2014, his last year before Shanny.
    415-628, 66.1 completion %, 4,694 yards, 7.5 yards/attempt, 28 TDs, 14 INTs, 93.9 rating.

    No, I’m not saying Hoyer is going to be Matt Ryan. Ryan struggled a bit in his first season with Shanny. Hoyer already knows the offense. Hoyer needs to stay healthy and focused. If he starts to fade in the second half, which has been a trend of his, put in Beathard or Barkley.

  41. Part of it is that Hoyer is underrated, and part of it is cherry picking.

    If you pick the right string of 17 games, you can probably find a time when Jeff George, Trent Dilfer, or Elvis Grbac were among the league leaders. You could have written the same article last year about Ryan Fitzpatrick.

  42. Happy 4th, everyone. Just saw the Sebastopol fireworks, and the amateurs had a display that was just as impressive as the City’s, because it was so close. Of course, 3 police cars converged on the scene, but do not know if any one was arrested.
    .
    Hope everyone has a safe and sane 4th.

  43. Special thanks and recognition to all military personnel serving at home and abroad. And of course to the veterans who frequent this site.
    America is strong because of true hero’s like you!

      1. Razor,
        No offense to other branches of of the USA, but I come from a family of veterans that served in the Marines and this song caught my attention.

  44. Hoyer’s career w/l record is 16-15.

    NE – He never started. He got to observe Brady though.
    Az – 0-1. Bad, but a very small sample size.
    Cle – 10-6. He won with the Browns. Nobody wins with the Browns. He elevated a terrible team.
    Hou – 5-4. Winning record. But the best team he’s been on other than NE.
    Chi. – 1-4. Terrible team, good numbers. 6 TDs 0 INTs, 67 completion%, 240.8 Y/G, 98 passer rating.

    1. Despite being a losing franchise the Browns have at many times been fairly well stocked with talent on both sides of the both.

      1. I’m talking about the Browns from 1999 to now. In 2013 the Browns had Josh Gordon and an old McGahee. There was a noticeable difference when Hoyer replaced Weeden.

        http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/browns-name-qb-brian-hoyer-starter-for-thursdays-game-against-bills/

        “The reason Chudzinski’s comfortable is because he has a starting quarterback who’s 2-0 in his only two starts with the Browns. Hoyer has reinvigorated the Browns offense: Cleveland has averaged 24 points per game since Hoyer took over for an injured Brandon Weeden before Week 3. Under Weeden, the Browns went 0-2 and were only scoring eight points per game.”

        In 2014 Gordon missed the first 10 games. Hoyer didn’t have much help in Cleveland.

        1. To be fair I should have added the Browns D was ranked 23rd in 2013, nothing special. But in 2014 the Browns D was ranked 9th. Better D but less help on offense.

  45. Well, there are those that think his stats mean he’s a good QB and there are the 6 teams that have cut him. Which side probably has the better feel for the type of player he is?

    1. For a bridge QB Hoyer is really good. He’s the best we could get at that salary. The Niners and their fans know that he isn’t a long term answer.

      1. 80,
        Bingo!
        This team only won 2 games last year. It’s going to be a while before we see a playoff team again – but at least there is real hope.

      2. Bridge QB. Why do we really care how good the bridge QB is. Is the team better off winning 7 or 2 games next year. I understand the value of success and what it can do overall for team building but for this team, the next season’s win total is almost totally moot. What’s important is getting through this next season with as many reps to the young players as they can and hopefully as few injuries as possible. That’ll be far more valuable to the future of this franchise then winning 7 games instead of 1 or 2.

        With what we ultimately need the higher the draft pick the better.

        1. The Browns have high picks every year. That’s not always a successful team building strategy. Even if the Browns weren’t the ‘Browns’, it would still be a risky strategy.

          I think we did great in this years draft, but Thomas is a tweener, Foster has an iffy shoulder, and Witherspoon isn’t physical. Our draft could be great or it could be disastrous.

          There comes a point when a team is good, but they might not know it at the time. Then they get that big win. All of the sudden they believe. I want that scenario to play out as soon as possible.

          As far as the young players getting reps goes, Trent Taylor will benefit from having a good-ish QB, as opposed to having a bad-ish QB like Barkiey.

        2. CFC,
          I agree with your take in part. Winning 1-3 games will garner high draft picks. Personally, I would take more wins over high draft picks.
          Young players will need to get as many snaps as possible this coming season, but they also need to develop a culture of winning going forward.

    2. The Shanny side. He’s worked with him, and he’s proven he knows a thing or two regarding quarterbacks.

      1. Shanny side up! In Washington, Mike and I assume Kyle didn’t want RGIII. They wanted Cousins, wise they were. In Cleveland, Kyle liked Garoppolo. Hoyer got the nod over Manziel. RGIII and Manziel are out of the league. Kyle didn’t want Kap either.

      2. FOS. You served or not? What is it?
        You talk about honor and integrity and on the day of your country you lie?
        You should be ashamed of yourself!

        1. EZ there.
          He was a member of Uncle Sam’s Mischievous Children (USMC).
          No fights at the cookout, please.
          PS- Cheers to your recently past Canada Day

  46. http://nfltraderumors.co/nfc-notes-cardinals-redskins-seahawks/

    Mark Maske of the Washington Post writes that some people within the NFL remain skeptical that the Redskins will be able to strike a deal with franchise QB Kirk Cousins before the July 17 deadline to negotiate with franchise players.
    Maske mentions that Cousins and his representatives will weigh any offer from the Redskins against the $23.94 million he stands to make in 2017 and the $34.47 million it would cost Washington to franchise him again in 2018, which is a total of $58.41 million.
    This is over $8 million more in average salary that Derek Carr just got from the Raiders in his record-setting extension.
    With this in mind, both executives from other teams and agents for other quarterbacks have told Maske that they aren’t convinced a deal will get done in the next few weeks. Instead, they seem to think Cousins plays out the year under the tag and moves on in 2018, possibly signing with the 49ers and reuniting with Kyle Shanahan.

    1. Continued,

      Independence in Ghana?

      http://www.classfmonline.com/1.9276440

      “Ghana is home to more than 103,000 slaves, the Global Slavery Index Report has said.”

      “According to the report released on Tuesday, out of the 103,300 enslaved people in Ghana, 85 percent are in forced labour in the fishing and farming industries, retail sales, manual labour, and factory work while the remaining 15 percent are in forced marriages.”

      Once again Kap rightly calls out America. But once again he praises a country that has its own demons. He helps and hurts his own cause.

      1. Ahem, the GSI also accuses the United States of condoning slavery, so maybe it would not be good to throw stones in glass houses. They say that right now, there are 60,100 people who are enslaved in America, so according to them, slavery is still alive and well in the United States. Personally, I disagree with their definition. The economic exploitation of vulnerable people could also be just a capitalistic principle, but slavery entails more than just exploitation. Slavery puts chains on one’s soul.
        .
        Ghana had a sordid history of being the hub of the slave trade, but today, it is rejecting those notions to the dark past, and many are being enlightened. They are following in the footsteps of their ancestors, to learn from history, so one does not repeat it.

          1. I will say that Kaep is committing another unforced error, and he is angering people unnecessarily. He is also hurting his chances to play, and needs to tone down his rhetoric.
            .
            Personally, I think he is getting bad advice.

            1. Kap is finished and you look like a fool still talking about him.
              But don’t you fret, the door isn’t completely closed. Maybe a storm… …ah shut up!

        1. seb,

          In my missing post I said I wasn’t comparing slavery with modern slavery. I didn’t think that I had to make that distinction because forced marriages were mentioned. While forced marriages are terrible IMO, it’s not slavery and it’s culturally accepted in some places.

          Then I included a link telling James Kofi Annan’s story. As a child he was forced to work 17 hours a day. When he didn’t do what was asked of him he was beaten and not given food. I also mentioned that this still happens in the present time.

          I don’t at all think that Kap supports this. I doubt he even knows about it. But he continues to praise countries that have shady practices. This makes him a poor activist.

          1. 80, I will concede that Kaep seem to be his own worst enemy by going hyperbolic on his rhetoric, and that he needs to become better informed, and think things through.
            .
            Sounds like as an activist, he is hurting his own cause.
            .
            Yes, I agree, there is still institutionalized forced labor, especially in the undeveloped countries. I also agree on your take about forced marriages.

  47. Captain Kirk averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt for his career, ranking him 12th all time. First 6 are Hall Of Famers, two more are locks. Just below him are Rivers and Unitas.

    AY/A – adjusted yards per passing attempt:
    (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts)

    1.Aaron Rodgers
    2.Russell Wilson
    3.Otto Graham
    4.Steve Young
    5.Tony Romo
    6.Tom Brady
    7.Ben Roethlisberger
    8.Phillip Rivers
    9.Peyton Manning
    10.Kurt Warner
    11.Kirk Cousins
    12.Drew Brees
    13. Matt Ryan
    14. Joe Montana

    Snyder has 13 days left to make a deal.

  48. Trust CK-loving, Castro-loving USA-hating, USA Vet – hating Seb to find a way to bash the USA on its birthday. nice.

      1. And no, while I am a fan of Kaep, I just criticized him, and thinks he should be quiet instead of sticking his foot in his mouth.
        .
        I am just being objective about Castro, and while conceding that he was an authoritarian figure, he did do good for the people of Cuba. I am also countering the hate against him, and tried to bring some historical perspective about the US hate, assasination plots and unjust and unwise embargo against him.
        .
        Hate the USA? I hate the USA as much as you do.
        .
        Hate all vets? No, my uncle was a vet, and I named my son after him.
        .
        However, with you, I do have a beef, since you are the guy who wants to send people like me out on point so I could take the first bullet, while you get to survive.

  49. I think Kaep is an average quarterback –he has well above average athleticism and but well below average core skills. We all know this. I was not too concerned with his knee on sidelines. I did not like pig socks. But still I was overall neutral. But the tweet from Ghana … that may be the real deal. Combine with ignorant Castro “broadbrush” comments. I am now seeing conclusively that he is Willing to sensationalize to grasp relevance . Opportunistic in this sense for his gain, with a payoff that I am not getting . I am now officially down on Kaep the QB (no change) and now done with Kaep the self-seeking disingenous “activist”.

    What a tool this guy.

        1. Blame everyone except Kap for all this mess he created.

          If only he would have become a student of the game and worked on his skill set, he would be employed and probably be still playing in SF. Instead, he thought he was bigger than the game.

          So glad the 49ers never took him back.

          1. Better watch out, if the Cousins door is closed, it might let the door to Kaep swing wide open.
            .
            Political views have little to do with how one plays the game, and you, yourself admitted that Kaep took the league by storm.

            1. Yes I was the one who said Kap took the league by storm and now I’m saying he will never be a 49er again.
              I’m smiling, you are biting your nails in anticipation of something that will never happen.

              1. No, I have no strong expectations about Kaep returning to the Niners, since it was he who opted out.
                .
                I will root for whoever leads the Niners, and honestly think that Barkley will out compete Hoyer.

              2. So the door is closed or is it still open? Cant make up your mind or do you just throw your horse crap around to needle people?

              3. Lynch himself said that he is keeping the door open. That is because he is smart, and he does not want to burn bridges.

              4. Apparently unless Lynch publicly states NO NEVER NOT IN YOUR LIFE OVER MY DEAD BODY Seb will see that as “keeping the door open”

              5. Seb, Kaep ain’t comin’ back. GM and HC have moved well down the road…politely.

        1. Source close to the Cousins camp tells me as long as Bruce Allen is team president , he will NOT negotiate a long term deal. #redskins
          — Chick Hernandez (@CHICKatCSN) March 10, 2017

    1. Report author:

      My “sources” are common sense and human nature.

      Twitter comment:

      Unless the “sources” are Dan Snyder and Cousins, I’m not getting my hopes up.

      I’m going with the 2nd myself. Common sense is illusive with many a team owner, Snyder especially

      1. I worry about Cousins in the red zone. He’s been good and bad.

        http://redskinswire.usatoday.com/2017/02/15/hot-take-kirk-cousins-red-zone-acumen-is-a-mixed-bag/

        In 2015, Cousins had the third highest pass rating and efficiency in the red zone, even though the Redskins offense ranked 11th, scoring 58.49 percent of the time.

        However, in 2016 Cousins and the Redskins offense ranked a dreadful 30th overall when entering the red zone, despite ranking third overall in total offense and averaging 403.4 yards per game. The former Michigan State star struggled in this domain throwing 50-for-121 (45.90 percent) for 320 yards and a passer rating of 84.6 (ranked 26th overall)

    2. I could see Snyder franchise tagging Cousins again next year for sure. He is the kind of guy who would kill his own team rather than see a perceived enemy get one over on him.

      Ross Tucker is really being naive with that take imo. The common sense and human nature angles he is referring to have already played out and shown the Redskins to be incompetent in both areas. They refused to give the guy a deal befitting a starting NFL QB 3 years ago and have continued to try to low ball him every year since. There is animosity from Cousins side for sure and I don’t think he has any intention of signing an extension. If the Redskins were to come in with a 25 mill per year offer and a guarantee of 60 mill (which is what he would make between the franchise tags this year and next), then sure it’s possible, but they have had a long time to offer him a fair market deal and haven’t, so why would anyone expect that to change now?

      Realistically I think Snyder will keep control of him through the franchise tag for as long as he can unless Bruce Allen can talk him out of it.

      1. If all this is true about Cousins, he better have the best year of his career. He has put an anvil of pressure on himself now.
        I don’t think the Redskins win more than 6 games this year!

        1. Ownership. He cant stay out of the way. He did so well for a couple years and now he has made it personal with Cousins.

        2. EC,

          Dan Snyder happened. They were one of the best Franchises in professional sports under Jack Kent Cook and then L’il Danny bought the team and they’ve been in turmoil ever since. This is what I feared we were going to be sentenced to under Jed, but he seems to have finally learned he has to find good people who have football credentials and then let them do their jobs. Snyder has never been able to do that.

  50. “He processes the game so well,” Shanahan said at the time he drafted Beathard, according to King. Shanahan also noted Beathard reminds him of Kirk Cousins, the quarterback he coached as offensive coordinator at Washington.

    1. I believe that the Niners need to forget about Cousins and develop Beathard and continue to draft QB’s till one sticks. I believe Cousins is too much of a risk – financial and talent! ‘Good’ QB’s are hard to come by, very few have left their original team and succeeded elsewhere.

      1. You could be right, UC. But unless I’m missing something, there’s no issue with having an option titled “acquire Kirk Cousins if available”. I don’t see how this option has any impact on the team at this point in time and even through the end of this season for that matter. Let me know if I’m missing something.

      2. UC,

        I disagree. Your drafting a QB until one sticks comment is exactly why you sign somebody like Cousins if the opportunity arises. It’s so hard to find a QB, especially in the draft, so if you have the chance to sign somebody who is top half of the league if not top ten, and he knows the Coach and system already, you do it imo. Doesn’t mean you have to stop looking in the draft, just means you improve the position in any way possible.

        As far as risk, what risk exactly? The Niners have so much room under the cap they could absorb the guaranteed money in the first two years of the deal quite easily which protects them from long term cap ramifications. Talent wise I’m not sure what the guy has to do to convince people he can play at a high level in this league. He has had the confidence to bet on himself and play on franchise tags while putting up great numbers playing at a top ten level. I think there tends to be a reluctance to accept players not selected early in the draft as franchise caliber QB’s for some reason no matter what they do. It took a long time for Brady to get the respect he deserved much earlier and the same seems to be happening with Cousins.

        1. I have no doubts regarding his talent. It’s just I never took seriously Snyder allowing the 49ers any opportunity to acquire him, and I still don’t. That’s why I agree with Undercenter. You’ve got a proven quarterback guru instead of a whisperer, and Full Shanny makes finding them easier. He liked Beathard enough to trade up for him. He’ll know what he has in him by the end of the year. Next year he’ll likely target another one to develop, and hopefully on our way to the Patriot model. Meanwhile, Snyder will have ruined his team by allowing his spite to land him in salary cap hell….

          1. Yeah as I said above I could easily see Snyder killing his own roster just to avoid losing a player to somebody he doesn’t like. Shanahan will find a QB at some point I’m sure, but my point is simply that if the Niners have a chance to get Cousins it should be a no brainer. Some are reluctant to that and I have no idea why. Continue drafting and hoping or sign somebody who fits and knows the system and has put up top ten numbers. What is there to consider exactly?

        2. Rocket I think the cost will be too much and will cripple the franchise in the future after the signing. I don’t think his talent warrents that kind of cost whatever it might be. If Cousins was that good in no way do the Redskins let him go. I will say his ability is better then what we have had in the last few years as of yet I am not convinced his talent is where it needs to be for the kind of cost. In recent history I can only think of Drew Brees that switched teams and had good success. Is Cousins the next Cutler, don’t know but it has a lot of similarities.

          1. UC maybe Payton Manning? Kurt Warner? Carson Palmer? Brett Farve? I think there are quite a few QB’s who have changed teams and had decent success. Cousin’s and Cutler are two completely different players, not even close. Not even sure how you could compare them?

            I think Cousin’s is a good QB, but probably not worth the kind of money he’s getting, but when guys like Dalton and Osweiler are getting ridiculous deals that’s what he’ll cost. I think most were hoping that the deal would fall through in DC and then he’s want out into Kyle’s open arms. There’s a million ways that wishful thinking could go wrong.

            I think Cousin’s could be a good playoff QB but maybe not a SB QB.

          2. UC,

            The cost will be high but it will not cripple the the franchise in any way, shape or form. They have so much cap room and few players to spend it on that they can easily absorb the guaranteed portion of any deal they choose to sign. The Redskins have not let him go, going so far as to hurt their own cap situation by keeping him around on franchise tags. They wanted to sign him long term, they just wanted it at their number and Cousins declined. Now it’s at a point where Cousins doesn’t want to be there. They do not want to let him go at all. Drew Brees is a great example of why the Niners should do this. He hadn’t even shown what Cousins has by the time he left SD but in the right system went on to have an incredible career. We already know Cousins can play – at least we should – and also know Shanahan seems him as an ideal fit for the system.

            Don’t worry about money. It’s a complete waste of time and has no bearing on the player involved anymore. The cost of signing any QB is high and the market dictates what the rate will be. If Cousins can come in and run this offense the way Shanahan believes he can and the way we’ve seen him do in DC, the amount he makes is irrelevant. This team will be rolling over 70 mill plus in Cap room. The last thing we have to worry about is how much the Niners will have to spend in the future.

          3. Undercenter, “In recent history I can only think of Drew Brees that switched teams and had good success”.

            I’ve watched a lot of Cousins the last 2 years, and I can say when I posted the above AY/A – adjusted yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) – 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts, and Cousins ranked 11th all time, right above Brees, I was not surprised. It was also no surprise that he ranked 12th all time in yards per pass attempt, with 6 Hall Of Famers, and two Hall Of Fame locks ahead of him….

  51. Cousins last year had the opportunity to win to get into the playoffs. He came up short.
    .
    Maybe KS could get him to play better, but there is no guarantee that he will become a SB QB, especially with the talent surrounding him.
    .
    CJB did not shine in the OTAs, and he was rated 217 pre draft, so he is not a lock to become the next franchise QB, especially with a good crop of QBs next season.
    .
    Niners will probably miss out on Cousins because he will sign with Washington. The Niners should try to win as many games as possible, because there should be good QB prospects even in the middle of the first round. Niners will probably miss out on Darnold or Rosen, so they should look hard at Jake Browning, or Lamar Jackson.
    .
    The additional second and third round picks may be good leverage to move up, but if they draft 2 second, and 2 third round picks, they will be gaining good depth.

  52. I don’t think changing qbs every season is a desired option the 49ers want to take. it will take at least one season for and experienced qb to learn the system. I cant even put cousins as a maybe at this point. hes a season off from leaving the redskins and IF he does he will have a ton of options at that point, all of which he will consider. no where near the reality stage. only thing profitable at this time is to develop barkley and beathard in case hoyer gets injured. neither one has nearly the experience in the nfl or in shanahans system to step in and take over with any success. lucky to have hoyer at this stage. knows the syatem and can step in and take over in a short time. smart guy.

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