Comparing the Titans’ and Browns’ trade hauls

Which club, Titans or Browns, got the better deal with their respective trades?

Here’s what the Titans acquired from the Rams:

L.A.’s first-round pick (No. 15), two second-round picks (Nos. 43 and 45), third-round pick (No. 76), first-round pick in 2017 and third-round pick in 2017, in exchange for Tennessee’s first-round pick (No. 1), fourth-round pick (No. 113) and sixth-round pick (No. 177).

I expect the Rams will win roughly eight games next season, in which case they would give pick Nos. 19 and 80 (roughly) to Tennessee in 2017.

Now, let’s see what the Browns acquired from the Eagles:

Philly’s first-round pick (No. 8), third-round pick (No. 77), fourth-round pick (No. 100), a first-round pick in 2017 and a second-round pick in 2018, in exchange for Cleveland’s first-round pick (No. 2) and fourth-round pick in 2017.

I expect the Eagles will win roughly six games six in 2016, and roughly eight games in 2018, in which case they would give pick No. 9 (roughly) to Cleveland in 2017, and pick No. 50 (roughly) to Cleveland in 2018.

Let’s recap:

Tennessee’s trade haul: Pick Nos. 15, 19*, 43, 45, 76, 80*

Cleveland’s trade haul: Pick Nos. 8, 9*, 49**, 77, 100

* = 2017 draft pick.

** = 2018 draft pick.

Which team do you think got the better deal?

I think the Browns did. They potentially will receive two top-10 picks, as opposed to the Titans, who probably will receive none.

    1. They won seven games last year. They win with defense. Gurley is great and will be healthier than last season. And the Rams inevitably will have a better QB. So, a one-game improvement at least.

          1. Wentz might have the potential to be the better QB but to assume he’ll be ready to play in his first season and not be a liability is assuming too much from him. The Rams have a better chance of going 8-8 with Goff. The only problem is they’ll probably have a lot of 8-8 seasons in the future as well.

            You shouldn’t be so certain the Rams are drafting Wentz.

              1. The Rams are “smitten” with Wentz.

                I like Wentz, but I have no idea if he’ll become a franchise QB. I’ll just say this ………. the odds are against him.

              2. I’d love it if the Rams took Wentz. I don’t want to face Goff twice a year.

                I also think Wentz will take more time to develop, which will keep their record lower in 2017, depriving them of some pretty good draft picks.

              3. “After making the move from No. 15 all the way up to No. 1, it seems the worst-kept secret in the world that L.A. is going to pick Goff.”- Todd McShay

              4. 49, the Rams may be smitten with Wentz, but I think they will get a snake bite if they choose him.

            1. CFC do you like the idea of newman at all? I worry he is more of a system CB and looks good in the zone and he is almost 30? Would this be a fools gold move or a step in the right direction?

              1. Although it wouldn’t surprise me to see Baalke go after him it’s not the move I would have liked. They should have signed Sean Smith however after missing out on him I could totally see Baalke overpaying for a lesser player in an attempt to make up for the missed earlier signing.

                I certainly think it’s a red flag that the Panthers pulled the tag on him. Good CB’s are a very valuable asset in this league and for the panthers to let him go even though they easily could have afforded him says a lot. The excuse that the one year deal didn’t make sense makes even less sense. Why didn’t they think they could sign him to a long term deal over the course of the next season?

                Maybe this is less about the player and more about the direction the Panthers are going in the draft early. Tough to say but it still says something if the team is willing to trust a rookie over Norman.

              2. A lesser player? Your are severely high off coffee. Norman is a much better corner then Sean Smith. Norman is an Elite corner. Arguably a top 3-5 in the NFL. Smith wasn’t even the best corner in the Chiefs last year. If your going to over pay for anyone you over pay for an All pro.

              3. Pff ranks Norman #11 and Smith #12. Their actual grades are 84.1 and 83.8. What you call much better is a .3 difference according to PFF. If Norman is Elite then so is Smith. However Smith is 2 years younger and far better in run coverage then Norman receiving a 79.0 grade versus normans 44.7 while maintaining a similar pass coverage grade. Smith is the better overall player and he’ll be playing longer, he was the better signing for the team.

                If Norman is so elite and great why did the Panthers just let him go for nothing? They weren’t overpaying him if he was truly as good as you think he is so why not keep him for the year and try and work out a long term deal?

                Says a lot that they were willing to just let him walk.

              4. Smith turns 29 in July. Norman turns 29 in December. That would make Norman younger. One was a first team all pro and the other wasn’t. They recinded the contract because they were never going to sign him long term. They attempted but it wasn’t close. Plus by letting him loose they get much needed cap relief to try to sign shorts long term who is a big priority for them. They were caped strapped.

              5. I agree here with Coffee. The red flag I see is that Carolina has no options by letting Norman walk.
                Charles Tillman tore his ACL in January. He will not be ready to go to start the season. Their starting nickelback Bene Benwikere broke his leg in December. Cortland Finnegan was the starting corner for the Thursday game of the Last Supper.
                So, for Carolina to allow Norman to become a UFA causes real concern. He doesn’t appear to be worth 14 million a year if a team who is in dire need of his services allows him to walk without compensation and over 31 million in cap space.

              6. Great if we’re talking about what his grade was in October. The grades I posted were the end of the season final grades.

              7. From PFF directly: Josh Norman had our third highest coverage grade among CBs last year (+16.8) and led all CBs with a passer rating allowed of 54.0.

              8. If you want to argue that Smith will be a better pick up because of the contract and a better bargain for what he is getting paid fine. I won’t disagree with that. Norman is better without a doubt.

              9. Do you have a link and a date to that comment? According to their grades that you have to pay for he’s their 4th rated CB by coverage grade.

                Keep in mind that the difference between the 4th and the 12th rated CBs in regards to coverage grade is 5.6 points. There are a lot of CB’s that received similar coverage grades to Normans.

              10. Grant – RE Cover 4: according to PFF here is the breakdown of Carolina’s coverages last year:

                Man (C1, 0 + 2 man): 156 snaps 18.4%
                Cover 2: 100 Snaps, 11.8%
                Cover 3: 244 Snaps, 28.8 %
                Cover 4: 225 Snaps, 26.6%
                Cover 6: 74 snaps, 8.7%
                other: 48 snaps, 5.7%

              11. So Norman played zone coverage somewhere between 75.9 and 81.6 percent of the time. Bad fit for SF.

              12. Yes. Jeff Deeney of PFF posted it last night on twitter:

                ‏@PFF_Jeff 20h
                Josh Norman had our third highest coverage grade among CBs last year (+16.8) and led all CBs with a passer rating allowed of 54.0.

              13. Likely a different set of data then what is being used for the site’s grading section I guess.

              14. Here is the most recent Pro Football Focus article on Josh Norman. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/04/20/how-much-is-josh-norman-worth-and-which-teams-should-go-after-him/.

                I think the article explains in greater detail that while the rankings are close, Norman is far and away a better cornerback than Smith. I can agree Smith was worth pursuing because he was a cheaper option, but I think the Niners need to realize they must overpay to some degree to get All-Pro caliber talent. My philosophy is you use the draft to build your team, and free agency for holes here and there. Well, a true #1 CB is a hole we have that we aren’t going to fill in the draft this year (unless we get Ramsey or Hargraeves at #7). So, Norman is worth it. Especially since you can sign him to 4 years, $60 million ($15 per), frontload the cap hit onto this year and next year (when the Niners have an exorbitant amount of salary cap room and can bear the brunt of the contract), and not severely damage the Niners’ salary cap future long-term. This improves the team not just with Norman, but with moving Brock to the #2 CB position, where he excels much better, and with a draft that improves our DL. Suddenly, the defense doesn’t look like the 29th ranked defense anymore.

        1. Actually, he’s yet to hit .500 as the Rams HC, despite the RG3 bonanza.

          27-36-1 overall with Rams, .430 win%

          Most overrated coach in the NFL!

    2. Exactly what I was thinking.. The Rams lost a lot of pieces this off season.. The defense isn’t going to be as good as last year and they have not replaced anyone that left, on top of that.. they’ll just add a viable player in this years draft.. a player who probably will be going through growing pains.. So I don’t see more than 5-6 wins .. MAX

  1. “Potentially” being the operative word, I know one thing for certain. Both the Rams and the Eagles got fleeced….

  2. Like CFC indicated, it is too early to tell who will be the best quarterback but if one or both QB’s become franchise like, then the price is worth it! Just a guess but I rank the QB’s like this: #1 Wentz #2 Goff #3 Cook #4 Lynch #5 Hogan, Number is probably a pipe dream. Newest rumor is a draft pick going to the eagles for Bradford, Would Bradford improve anything for the red and gold ?

    1. Number 5 is a pipe dream, I like him a lot but his skill set may not be good enough like many have pointed out.

    2. “Would Bradford improve anything for the red and gold ?”

      For the 9 games he’s healthy, yes he’d be a significant upgrade over the QB’s we currently have.

  3. Both teams did very well trading down. I would agree that Cleveland did a little better. If both QB’s play well than it was worth trading up for both teams. And if both Tennessee and Cleveland draft well they will benefit exponentially..

  4. By standard trade charts the Titans got lost a 3,000 point pick. Gained 3,240.

    The Browns lost a 2,600 point pick. Gained 3,477.

    Looks like the Browns won big.

    But I’m not a big chart guy at the very top of the draft. 2016 has alot of underclassmen. The talent in the 2nd round is supposed to be really good, making the Titans 43 and 45 picks more valuable.

    But that also bumps the value of the Browns 77 and 100. Many say the top 100 talent this year is above average.

    One thing is certain. They both got a big haul.

    1. correction – By standard trade charts the Titans lost a 3,000 point pick. Gained 3,240.

      I think the Titans start making trade up calls as soon as Tunsil drops to pick 5. Some team between 5-7 will take their offer.

        1. The Browns cleaned up huge. Makes me wonder what other teams were offering the Browns.

          I wonder of the Eagles will eat some of Bradford’s contract and trade him to Denver to recoup lost draft capital. I can see the value of hanging on to Bradford while the rookie QB develops.

        2. So did eagles if Wentz is a franchise QB. That’s what no one seems to get except the analysts that say same thing. Everyone wins if Goff and Wentz are studs. You know who loses? Niners. Btw- Goff will beat niners opening night next year.

      1. B2W,

        Thanks for the point totals.

        Did you adjust future year pick values down to equivalent present year values, or did you just go straight off of the chart?

        If you didn’t adjust, how much of a downgrade in value is common? I’ve heard one round, but that seems kind of high.

      1. Yup. They can vary year to year.

        Below Chart – 2013 Oakland traded pick 3 (2200) for Miami’s 12+42 (1680).

        Above Chart – 2012 Washington/St. Louis trade. 2016 Eagles/Browns trade.

        1. The Raiders gave that pick away because there wasn’t anyone worth holding onto it for. The 2013 draft as a vacuum of talent. The Dolphins selected Dion Jordan with that pick. That worked out pretty well for them.

          1. That’s my sense of the 2005 draft. The 49ers valued Smith and Rogers very closely. It was understood the quarterback not taken would slide in the first round (though not that dramatically). Word was the 49ers were shopping the #1 overall but couldn’t get a good offer.

  5. When you line them up side by side it really does look like CLE got the better deal and Stl traded up for the better QB. Will the Philly media still blame Chip for bad personnel deals? On the NFL trade chart Tenn scores a haul of 3,245 vs. Cle getting 3,465. That plus +220 for CLE equals the 74th pic/3rd round equivalent. CLE has more at stake if Wentz pans out (Ten has a QB and therefore a trade was inevitable).

    1. Browns got about 877 over chart. Titans 240 over chart.

      Again, I’m not a strict chart guy. But the Browns deal was better by about 637 points. The equivalent of a 30th overall. Assuming the Eagles+Rams record projections are accurate.

  6. Some time ago i cant remember when there was talk that Staley could get a trade so my proposition would be try to get a 1st or 2nd rounder for him and trade up to get Tunsil who would be a upgrade from Staley with a season under his belt. IMHO Tunsil and Jack are the cant miss big impact players from this draft and future Pro bowlers.

  7. Maiocco- “Jon Gruden said he sees 5 QBs taken in the top 35”

    Would bump 2 or 3 really good non-QBs closer to 37. The late first could have a mini-trade up frenzy that echoes what happened with picks 1 and 2.

      1. With Goff and Wentz off the board, I’m hoping Lynch, Cook, and Hackenberg all go in the 1st. I’m starting to like Cardale in the 4th as a high upside pick. I’m also hoping Jaylon Smith gets to the 49ers 4th round comp.

          1. That’s why you draft him in the 4th. Paxton Lynch is the “epitome of a project” as well but some dumb ass GM is going to take him in the 1st.

            1. I like the idea of Cardale Jones, as well, Grimey.

              Are the dubs going to pull this one out? What a humiliation it would be for the Rockets.

        1. Agree with getting Jaylon Smith. IMO that would be a very good bet. Cardale Jones could maybe switch to TE, but not enamored with him as a QB.

          1. I hope the Niners trade back, accumulate picks and snag both Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller.
            Imagine if Blake Bell, Jones and Miller are on the field at the same time. Niners could have 3 flea flicker options.
            I like your Idea about converting CJ into a TE.

    1. “Jon Gruden said he sees 5 QBs taken in the top 35″

      One of the few times I completely agree with the man.

  8. Real simple, if Goff or Wentz become top flight franchise QB’s, and especially Goff, the Niners are the losers. It doesn’t matter what you give up if you find a Cam Newton, Luck, Brady, etc. it is a QB driven league and if you have one of those guys, you have a chance every year.

    Right now, the Niners have none. They will be the worst team in the NFL precisely because they don’t have a QB. Kaepernick is not good, Gabbert marginally better.

    3-4 wins this year and Baalke gone next. We will draft one of the top QB’s in next years draft. Problem, it’s a throw away year next year as well.

    God how we have fallen.

    1. Those are 2 HUGE if’s. It was only a few years ago that RGIII was a can’t miss, sure fire top flight franchise QB. How did that work out? Everyone was much higher on him than these 2 guys. Just a couple of months ago everyone knew and said this was an incredibly weak QB class, then all of the sudden espn must have decided it was better for pre-draft tv ratings if they hyped them up. I don’t know how else to explain the rise in interest.

  9. Both the Rams and Eagles are losers. Both Titans and Browns are winners. It depends on who they draft to see who got the better deal.
    Depends on how the QBs play to decide if the Rams or Eagles made a good move.

    1. The Browns 24-10 beat down of the 49ers last season and this trade proves who has the superior organization. Dare 49er fans say it…Cleveland is the place to be, not San Fran if you’re a FA.

  10. Yeah the Browns only have to move from 2 to 8 (where as the Titans go from 1 to 15) but I still think the Titans got the better deal. Just comparing them at their basics they get: two 1st, 2 seconds and 2 thirds, the Browns got: 2 first, 1 second, 1 third and 1 fourth (and the 2nd round pick is all the way in 2018).

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