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Ramifications of QB competition: If Hill starts, 49ers should cut loose Smith

This post is not intended for shock value. And I'm not reporting that this will happen. This post is intended to underscore the significance of the 49ers' quarterback competition and what it could mean for the future of the organization.

* * *

There is a lot at stake at 49ers training camp this summer. The quarterback competition should create a healthy dose of daily intrigue, beginning this morning when the club takes the practice field for the first time.

In 2005, the 49ers made a decision that would shape the future of the franchise. They selected quarterback Alex Smith with the No. 1 overall pick.

This summer, the 49ers are again at a crossroads. The outcome of the quarterback competition pitting Smith against Shaun Hill represents another watershed event for the 49ers.

In this blog I have written that I expect Smith to win the starting job. (And, believe me, I'll write it again.) But because coach Mike Nolan has advertised this as an "open competition," anything can happen. Smith has to win the job based on his play during the exhibition season.

If Hill clearly outplays Smith during the exhibition season - regardless of how they perform on the practice field - the 49ers are obligated to play Hill. Otherwise, that would create a lot of questions - among fans and players in the locker room - about the legitimacy of the quarterback competition.

So here is where it gets tricky. Please hear me out:

If Hill wins the job . . . let me stress this, IF SHAUN HILL WINS THE JOB . . . Alex Smith will have lost his starting role in his fourth season - a year in which he would be expected to shine. And if that happens, the 49ers should take drastic, yet appropriate, action. If Smith is not the starter, the 49ers should sever ties with him before the start of the regular season.

It would be the right thing to do for the organization and it would be the right thing to do for Smith.

* * *

Why would something like this even be considered?

The salary-cap savings for this season would be minimal, somewhere in the neighborhood of $800,000. This would not be a financial move; this would be a strategic decision.

--With a scheduled salary of more than $9 million for 2009, Smith clearly would not return next season if he's not the starter in 2008. That much is obvious. If the 49ers did not cut him before the start of the regular season, they would be delaying the inevitable. If they parted ways this summer, the 49ers would be making a clean break and moving forward instead of forcing Smith to languish on the sideline.

--Smith as a non-starter on the 49ers would cause a major distraction and cast a cloud over the organization. Every week there would be Alex Smith questions to the coach and to his teammates. "If Shaun Hill struggles this week, might Alex enter the game?" Or, "How has Alex coped with his backup role?" Or "How much of a disappointment is it that Smith isn't playing?" Instead of all the focus being on who's playing, much of the attention will be directed to the guy who is not playing. Even if Hill plays exceptionally well, he will always be contrasted to Smith, the former No. 1 overall pick.

--Smith probably wouldn't say anything publicly, but you can bet that he and his agent, Tom Condon, would want the 49ers to give him a chance to go someplace where he has a chance to start in '09. After what happened last season, you better believe Smith would want a fresh start elsewhere.

--Moreover, the 49ers would already have a backup, J.T. O'Sullivan, who has gained offensive coordinator Mike Martz's confidence. O'Sullivan was Martz's backup with the Lions last season. He already knows the system better than Smith.

* * *

The only reasons to keep Smith if he does not win the job are that it would reduce the 49ers' depth at quarterback this season and key members of the organization would be admitting a mistake was made in drafting him No. 1.

Nolan has said he has three QBs on the roster he believes can win games. If they cut Smith, they would have only two. But, let's face it, any team that has to go to its third quarterback is probably not going to be in a position to win many games, anyway.

And, in essence, a mistake would have already been admitted if Smith does not earn the starting job in Year 4. The beginning of the regular season would be the time to make a fresh start while everyone's focus is on the task at hand. The only downfall is that the team would have to find a new No. 3. (The Sabercats' Mark Grieb?)

I believe IF SHAUN HILL WINS THE JOB, the reasons to part ways with Smith outweigh the reason(s) to keep him.

* * *

Again, I don't expect it to get to this point. I believe Smith will win the job. And even if he does not win the job, I'm not predicting the 49ers will cut him. I'm only saying that would be the next logical move the team should make.

But a lot of people would have to sign off on that decision, including Nolan, Martz, Scot McCloughan and, perhaps most importantly, John, Denise and Jed York.

* * *

Let me emphasize: I expect Smith to line up as the starting quarterback when the 49ers face the Cardinals on Sept. 7 in the regular-season opener.

If Smith remains healthy for the entire season, I envision his passer rating somewhere in the low 80s under the direction of Martz, a genuine QB guru. And if Smith plays well this season, the 49ers will have no problem paying the going rate for a solid NFL quarterback next year.

So why did I write this piece? It's because as long as there is an announced competition, it is possible Smith will not win the job. And if he is not the starter, I want the readers of this blog to be cognizant of the serious ramifications and one possible outcome.

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Comments | Add Comment

Posted By: quest (29/07/2008 10:46:10 AM)
Comment: Rollin with Nolan came up with a flat. The niners have a incredible amount of talent,that has no direction at the helm. Nolan has proved he has poor time management issues,as well as other questionable decisions he has made for the 49ers.I will grant him this.He made some good draft picks,especially on the defense.I never liked the pick in alex smith though.I'd always thought aaron rodgers was a better suited quarterback. But then again maybe not with nolan at the lead.As for Shaun Hill, he proved in the last 3 games of '07/'08 that the team would rally behind him. He may not be able to toss it down the field, but he proved to be more accurate in his debut. Caliber of the teams he started against may come into question but some of the worst teams have beat the niners before he played. Alex is a good q/b. if the offence works in tune,he gets better protection,his accuracy with the deep ball improves,as well as teamates rallying with him.I even think they should alternate the Q/B's every other down to confuse opponents. Play unorthodox. Make it exciting to watch them even more win or lose

Posted By: Marc - NJ49er (27/07/2008 1:28:42 PM)
Comment: Matt, great argument. Something I've pondered since the moment the team announced the option clause. I've posted the importance of Martz and year 4 numerous times and your analysis of the Hill contract and Smiths' option put the 'Line in the Sand'. I play the CAP hand heavily when considering options in the NFL and when we look objectively at the options and ROI, a second tier guy at bargain rate prices in a new system can only improve the long term outlook. Martz is out to burn STL and wants the opportunity to show that he has the leadership skills necessary to identify another diamond in the rough to run his well defined NFC West Offense.

Posted By: shane (26/07/2008 10:06:01 AM)
Comment: Alex will win the job lest we forget before rocky bernard crushed him we were 2-1, he wasnt losing games and won the opener. Shaun Hill is a backup noodle arm bottom line he has no upside

Posted By: Dirk 2 (26/07/2008 8:35:40 AM)
Comment: I don't know why there's a QB controversy at all. In my opinion Hill won the starting job last year fair-and-square. He proved himself on the field of battle, something Smith (given 2 full seasons) hasn't been able to do.

Posted By: Old School (26/07/2008 7:58:09 AM)
Comment: It's hard to believe that we once had Joe Montana and Steve Young competing to be 49ers starting QB. Now it's Alex Smith and Shaun Hill.

Posted By: Rick (26/07/2008 7:07:39 AM)
Comment: The thing I think you're just totally dismissing is the fact that Alex has been, and still is, rehabing his shoulder and trying to slowly work it back into shape. A month ago he was having trouble going deep. Situations could play out where Hill outplays him in the exhibition due to soreness in Alex's shoulder or Alex not being 100% for the first/second exhibition games. Hill gets the starting nod for the opener...teams figure him out after 3 weeks and know he has an arm that's stronger than Pennington, but weaker than Garcia. By this time, Alex is healed and understands the offense much more, and if he is mentally tough enough, can go in and carry the offense for the rest of the season. Maybe the rest of his career. Another thing is that Hill seems to be very injury prone. Shouldn't we have learned after last season that we need capable backups? I understand that Martz loves O'Sullivan, but who doesn't Martz love? Martz would find a way to talk up even the worst practice squader in the league. I do not want JTO'Sullivan as our backup QB. Also they are both learning a new offense. One may be better at executing it at this point than the other, but that could change once the other gets a grasp on the offense. It's too early to tell who is better than the other. The season is very long and Hill may perform better at the beginning of the season, but that doesn't mean his learning curve won't cap where as Alex's could continue to grow exponentially. If Alex is not the starting quarterback, cutting/trading him does nothing for us. It might be in the best interest of Alex, but it would be in the worst interest of the 49ers. I understand it could be a distraction, but the distraction would be minimal if Shaun Hill is playing well and the team is winning. If Hill is playing horribly, then after a couple games, Alex should be out there anyway. We do not save any significant money by getting rid of him and you never know the path that the season can take you. The season is long and filled with twists and turns. Just because Hill starts the season as the starter doesn't mean that Alex is not the starter after week 2. But getting rid of him gives you no option do to that. You have to keep your options open, especially with an unknown (Hill) at qb. In my opinion, cutting Alex would be the worst possible thing we could do.

Posted By: mv49ers (26/07/2008 6:43:44 AM)
Comment: HEY MATT, IF IT WERE TO COME DOWN TO THAT IT'D BE AN EMBARASSMENT TO THE ORGANIZATION NOLAN IS JUST PLAYING GAMES. THIS IS CLEARLY SMITH'S JOB! NOLAN SHOULD LEAVE NOT SMITH, BRING MIKE HOLMGREN BACK HOME!!!!!

Posted By: RonO (25/07/2008 10:51:52 PM)
Comment: Way to go "Still a fan"!!!! You're 110% correct.

Posted By: Brian in Lafayette (25/07/2008 6:50:34 PM)
Comment: It would be foolish to cut loose Smith. Mike Nolan will be fired at the end of the season. Let the new 49ers executive vice president of football operations, Mike Holmgren decide if Smith has what it takes to succeed.

Posted By: Obama the Marxist (25/07/2008 6:34:07 PM)
Comment: That's a pretty heavy column for a sports page...deep... I agree one hundred percent

Posted By: Still a Fan (25/07/2008 6:01:42 PM)
Comment: In response to Fuzzy and all the others that respond to this and other sites; you don't have a clue as to what you are talking about. Nolan took over a terrible team and disfunctional organization from top to bottom. He and the GM have retooled over 80% of the team from 3 years ago. Can anyone name one player Nolan has let go that is productive for any other team; you can't. He's done a really good job with helping restructure the whole organization to the point that free agents want to come here again. The defense and special teams are really good. The only part missing is the "O". You people have short memories. He's hired quality people to run the offense. McCarthy left for the Pack after yr one; Turner left after yr two; and he was stuck taking a risk on Hostler because Turner left so late. He admitted it didn't work out; so he went and got Martz. Also add losing your starting QB, RB, and TE for small or large portions of the season and you can see why there hasn't been a good, consistent offense. Don't blame Nolan for circumstances beyond his control. They've drafted some good players at skill positions (Gore, Davis) and I'll put Smith in there after this year. So, before another mis-educated fan gets on here and blasts Nolan, look back to what he took over and where they are headed now. If McCarthy or Turner were here for more than one year, we'd have a productive, quality offense and we'd be debating how the 49ers can get to the next round of the playoffs.

Posted By: 49er from Oz (25/07/2008 5:55:59 PM)
Comment: Matt, could you dissect the first three games Smith played in last year vs Arizona ,St Louis and Pittsburgh and compare his game to Hills games against Minnesota, Cincinatti and Tampa bay?

Posted By: Wilson (25/07/2008 5:48:02 PM)
Comment: Faulty reasoning on your part, Matt. Assume that you have two very good quarterbacks, and that Shaun Hill wins the nod over Alex after looking a little better in preseason. Shaun Hill starts a few games and stumbles or gets hurt. Alex comes in and does great, then becomes the starting QB for the next 7 years. And how stupid would the 49ers look if they released Alex and he becomes a star with another team, after being developed by us? One could conclude that you have the patience of the average poster here, Matt. And that was not a compliment.

Posted By: NickDSlick (25/07/2008 5:45:33 PM)
Comment: Im goona say if Hill plays better in training camp and earns the starting job, the Niners will keep Smith due to the fact that Hill was 2-1 last year, but did get hurt after only 3 games while Alex has proven to be exceptionally tough and durable with the exception of when hes getting the smack laid down on him by 300+ pound Rocky Bernard. It would be a great oppurtunity for him to learn more of the offense and whitness how the offense can be successful and then do a lil more copycating because I think one of the problems is the offense has BEEN HORRIBLE SINCE GARCIA AND OWENS LEFT and did we really expect him to step in and single handily turn the offense around when his recievers was dropping good passes left and right. But then again, we both agree that Alex Smith will win the job. Great blog, been following for 2 years and finally thought Id say hi. Without the Webzone and your blog, Id be one lonely Niner fan in Lake Tahoe.

Posted By: Fuzzy (25/07/2008 4:23:06 PM)
Comment: If I was Smith I would relish the thought of being let go, with the opportunity to go to a team with a quality HC. The 49ers can get all the talent in the world, all the best coordinators in the world, but as long as Nolan is there it is just more of what we have watched for the last three years. I can't believe there are people who still do not realize that.

Posted By: Joemama (25/07/2008 3:34:16 PM)
Comment: Stupid post.

Posted By: Parker (25/07/2008 2:08:55 PM)
Comment: Matt - way to get the Niner What Ifs flowin' for our training camp opening ceremonies. Personally, I would not be heart broken if Hill gets the starting nod over Smith. It just means the Smith will be sent packing and the Niners will draft Nate Davis from Ball State as Hill's understudy. How about that for a What If. ;)

Posted By: Cody Pickett (25/07/2008 1:27:29 PM)
Comment: Shaun Hill is NOT a starting caliber NFL QB, and thus is NOT the long term answer. Ditto (in spades) for J.T. O'Sullivan. No way the 49ers go into opening game 2008 with either of these guys at QB, unless Alex Smith gets hurt. Conceivably, Alex Smith can play himself out of a job, but not in the pre-season. The 49ers have a deadline -- April 2009, IIRC, when Smith is due an $8 mil bonus, unless he is released before then -- in which to make the decision whether Smith is the long term solution. Currently, they don't have enough info to make that decision, and 2 don't-count pre-season games won't provide that info. The 49ers will give Smith at least 10 regular season games either to play himself out of a job, or to prove that he belongs. This is not just on-field performance, it involves money - And it's not rocket science, it's a no-brainer.

Response: FYI, there is no deadline. The 49ers have already accounted for all the guaranteed money Smith was scheduled to earn. He has a base salary of more than $9M for 2009. There is $5.3M in accelaration for next year if the 49ers were to part ways with Smith. That's not much, considering they're planning to carry over at least $7M on the cap, thanks to Donald Strickland's deal. --Matt M.

Posted By: jkc (25/07/2008 1:14:10 PM)
Comment: 'If Smith does have the arm as Hill..." I meant to say 'If Smith does not have the same arm as Hill..."

Posted By: gw2 (25/07/2008 1:12:53 PM)
Comment: IndianaJim: Barrows wrote: "As far as his shoulder injury, Smith said it will be a work in progress, perhaps for a long time... he is continuing the rehabilitation process that started in January. If he doesn't continue that rehab - he called it "maintenance" - he said he risked losing some of strength and mobility he worked hard to gain over the last six months. Everything is about back to normal, although he said he is still working on his deep passes. He didn't have his normal depth on those throws during last month's OTAs." Maybe you're right and it's just the normal course of rehab, but here it is almost August, and Alex is still not 100%. It's worrying.

Posted By: jkc (25/07/2008 1:11:32 PM)
Comment: Bill Bird ----- If Smith is still suffering from that shoulder injury at this time -- then it was more serious than anyone let on and would be considered career threatening. Manning played through his shoulder injury, and both Drew Brees and Chad Pennington came back from their shoulder injuries in less than a year. If Smith does have the arm as Hill, than Smith needs to be cut. Hill doesn't have a strong arm and I'm hoping Smith IS ok and wins the comp.

Posted By: RonO (25/07/2008 12:58:38 PM)
Comment: Matt, your analysis makes no sense whatsoever. If Hill wins the starting job why on earth would any organization in the world throw away his best backup (Smith) in case either Hill's pre-season success does not continue into real games or he gets injured? My guess is that you've been hanging out too much with idiot Kawakami - this is the kind of rubbish he comes up with.

Posted By: John (25/07/2008 12:15:44 PM)
Comment: Wow -- Hey Matt -- Agree with your assertion 100%. And, am a little surprised at the support Smith is getting. As a 49er fanatic since 1970, I have seen everyone from Dennis Harrison/ Tom Owen (who indeed?) to Joe Montana penciled in as the starting regular season qb. I am not a Smith hater, I just think your assertion makes sense. Much of what has been written in response is based on emotion -which I understand, but the cold hard fact is that -- IF again IF -- Smith can't beat out an ACC QB who had trouble starting in College and a solid-minded 3rd-string back-up from until recently a Div 2 School, then he should be let go. NO EXCUSES--Injuries, etc. Fans who are holding on to the very few and tiny glimpses of brilliance we have seen from Smith need to get over it. This is about reality and winning, not about our feelings toward Mike Nolan nor Alex Smith -- Good column

Posted By: Bill Bird (25/07/2008 12:03:44 PM)
Comment: You forgot one other tiny intangible that must be considered Mr. Maiocco. What if Smith training camp proves Smith is still suffering from his shoulder injury and Hill wins the job by default. What then? And what if Hill leads the Niners to a winning record? What then?

Posted By: Indiana Jim (25/07/2008 11:53:41 AM)
Comment: JBG - certainly a possibility, but serious injuries in the preseason are rare.

Posted By: JBG (25/07/2008 11:25:50 AM)
Comment: I'll make a prediction, and since predictions are worth *absolutely nothing*, take it for what it's worth. I believe the starter at QB will be determined not by skill or play, but by an injury that happens in the preseason. Why? Because we're playing with an ungelled offensive line, where even the starters are bound to be shaky early on, and in preseason games playing against many defensive players who are in make-or-break situations, and are heavily motivated to destroy anyone holding the football. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Smith or Hill (or both) end up with a season-ending injury before the season even begins. Not exactly good news, but certainly not out of the question.

Posted By: Indiana Jim (25/07/2008 11:22:22 AM)
Comment: gw2 - here is what Matt Barrows wrote: "Everything is about back to normal, although he said he is still working on his deep passes. He didn't have his normal depth on those throws during last month's OTAs." This is simply a nature of his rehab. No sense pushing the deep balls too early, when the OTA's was more for footwork, drops, timing, etc.

Posted By: MacNiner (25/07/2008 11:16:35 AM)
Comment: This QB competition thing is a complete charade. Starting Hill would cause so much uproar across the organization and Bay Area that Nolan wouldn't make it to the third game/loss. Nolans only hope is to start Smith, hope he plays well or gets hurt early and plays Hill. If Smith plays poorly and stays healthly, Nolan is gone faster than you can say "Smarmy Reebok Leisure Suit"

Posted By: gw2 (25/07/2008 11:09:27 AM)
Comment: Not intended for shock value? I am shocked!! Seriously though, what did shock me was reading yesterday that Alex is still having trouble throwing deep. Could it turn out that for physical reasons alone, his career is over before it got started? Thanks coach Nolan. You really know how to pick 'em, how to groom 'em and bring 'em along. IF Shaun Hill were to beat him out, I agree Smith should go, but after the season ends, rather than before it begins.

Posted By: Jed (25/07/2008 11:07:43 AM)
Comment: Agree with DaveinDavis (the competition lets Smith win over teammates) and JoninSoCal (Nolan gets released first and gets blamed). And since Nolan is in a contract year, the O-Line is suspect, and Hill is an eggshell, there's no way SF depletes depth at backup QB. Smith will be here in February, Nolan might not.

Posted By: IL Giacomo The Great (25/07/2008 11:07:20 AM)
Comment: I can't believe you're predicting Hill will win the starting job. Now that's bold!

Posted By: johnP (25/07/2008 11:06:07 AM)
Comment: One addition to the thought I wrote below: "(b) If the team does well with Hill, Nolan can snidely use Smith as his whipping boy (See - I'm a good coach, but Smith let me down...)." If Hill does well with Smith on the bench, *even if the success is 100% due to Martz's coaching (rather than Hill being better than Smith)* - Nolan can pin the last 3 years of failure on Smith. He can say, "In hindsight, my only mistake was that I remained loyal to Smith. I should have thrown him under the bus sooner. "

Posted By: Frank (25/07/2008 11:01:21 AM)
Comment: Matt, I think this is the only poor column you have written in the 3 or so years i have been reading you (and reading you every single day). To me, the article seems unneccesary, highly speculative, sensational, and it ignores so many other factors, many of whcih are not known at this time. I appreciate your opinions, particularly when they are based on your observations of players on the field and in the locker room. This, tho, is not so based and, instead, oversimplifies what could happen and, really, just prejudges a situation that has not yet arisen, and facts that are not yet known (except the one that you posit).

Posted By: johnP (25/07/2008 10:47:18 AM)
Comment: Gotta disagree. Nolan is a coward - so you need to analyze this from the perspective of, "what mitigates the public downside" (even at the expense of team success). Let's look at the potential downsides: Downside of cutting Smith. (a) Nolan admits making a mistake by drafting Smith. (b) If Hill plays poorly, that's second mistake of choosing a journeyman Hill over a Smith who never got a chance under a decent coach (Martz). (c) If Smith plays well elsewhere, there's a third mistake: cutting a good player. All these mistakes are public mistakes, and no matter the outcome - Nolan's pinned with at least one public mistake. Now - if they keep Smith as a backup: (a) Smith cannot excel elsewhere. (b) If the team does well with Hill, Nolan can snidely use Smith as his whipping boy (See - I'm a good coach, but Smith let me down...). (c) If team does poorly with Hill, Nolan can bring in Smith. If team still does poorly, he can blame Martz, Warhop, or whomever. Cutting Smith publicizes Nolan's mistakes. Keeping Smith covers his a$. Your analysis was based on the perspective, "what's best for the Niners. It should be, "what best covers Nolan's rear end."

Posted By: longtime49erfan (25/07/2008 10:44:25 AM)
Comment: I wholly disagree! If Alex Smith is let go before the season, then other teams might pick him up and obtain a former #1 draft pick who, with the right kind of coaching and training, might become a major player at the QB position. This would adversely impact the 49ers if and when they had to play against Smith. I see no reason to part with a former #1 pick (if it becomes necessary to do so) under any circumstances, until after the season is over. Also, I do agree that Smith is likely to be the starter this season, but if not, he should stay with the team, regardless of the hype and talk from the sidelines.

Posted By: bigjay (25/07/2008 10:36:09 AM)
Comment: Very interesting piece,Matt. l agree with your solid assessment.However,that wont happen anytime soon.l am not sure that the qb competition is for real.In my hearts of hearts,l believe everything will be done to ensure Alex wins the competition because of the financial ramifications.l am not convinced Alex is a franchise type qb but l can only hope that whoever wins the job is chosen on meit.

Posted By: Danny in Gainesville, FL (25/07/2008 10:32:40 AM)
Comment: Matt...Another potential reason they might keep a benched Alex is as an insurance policy in case their decision to start Hill looks like a total screw up 6 weeks into the season. Hill played like a hall-of-famer against prevent defenses and the Bengals pass D, which are akin to the kind of vanilla defenses he'll be seeing (and probably destroying) during the preseason games. So long story short, the possibility exists that Hill will win the job based on his preseason game performances, but then lay an egg during the season when he's not playing against vanilla/prevent/sorry D's. In that case, keeping Alex on the bench might be a sound CYA policy...Oh, one more thing, what you talk about in this post sounds alot like what the Jaguars did last year during camp: 1) Announce open competition, 2) quickly name former backup as the winner of said competition, and 3) immediately cut former starter. It worked out pretty good for them, eh?

Posted By: Mike (25/07/2008 10:20:32 AM)
Comment: Matt, I'm confused by your ambiguous writing style. Who is it that you're expecting to line up as the starting QB this season? ;-)

Posted By: Andrew (25/07/2008 10:16:40 AM)
Comment: If Nolan yanks any QB without "permission" from Martz, then I expect we might see a Buddy Ryan slugging Kevin Gilbride moment on the 49ers sideline.

Posted By: Jon in SoCal (25/07/2008 10:12:22 AM)
Comment: McNolanartz to the rescue!!

Posted By: DaveInDavis (25/07/2008 10:12:01 AM)
Comment: Matt, do you think this QB competition is more about establishing Smith as the leader of the offense and less about choosing the QB? When drafted Smith was handed the starting job and did not have to earn it on the field. Smith definitely had issues gaining the respect of his teammates where Hill seemed to be able to come off the bench and immediately take the lead. The whole injury scandle did help Smith's rapport with his teammates in the locker room. Smith will be our starting QB in Arizona. This competition is about establishing Alex as the leader of the offense and allowing him to win the team's confidence more than winning the starting role.

Posted By: Powell (25/07/2008 10:04:33 AM)
Comment: Lets say Smith and Hill perform about even in the pre-season and they give the job to Smith. And lets say he struggles in the regular season.. how long would it take Nolan to bench him and would the higher ups feel obligated to release him in a situation like that too?

Posted By: candlestickbob (25/07/2008 9:46:39 AM)
Comment: I disagree. You wrote an article a few weeks ago contrasting Urban Meyers' comments on Alex Smith with Martz' ability to detail and answer every QB question: conluding the Martz was the right coach for Alex Smith. I hope Nolan would not draw that line in the sand unless he and Martz presently agree that Smith will not cut it. Thus Nolan is letting Alex fend for himself on the practice field. Of course Nolan has to save face with the fans and light a fire under Alex Smith. Unless Nolan and Martz have a favorite, I think Alex should be given at least 5-7 games in this new system and kept on the bench for the remainder. I remember a few seasons ago when even 3rd stringer Cody Pickett was injured. Keep Alex. Nolan will have to do some tapdancing on the mic to keep the media away, but thats his job. Maybe we could have Martz revist "yeah but, yea but, yeah but, Shaun Hill is our starting QB." Hey they have the coaches, the talent, the experience and the responsibility to make sure that Alex Smith doesn't leave our organization and turn into a diamond. Run him through Martz program, run him through again, bench him bring him back. And until he is dead in the water, McNolanartz has the fundamentals to weather a season with a QB controversy, particularly with Patrick Willis playing so damn good. Yeah I said it: McNolanartz. Candlestick Bob, aka Chicano Bob, aka chili-dog: Section 9 row 7 baby all day!

Posted By: Jon in SoCal (25/07/2008 9:45:15 AM)
Comment: Sorry, I posted the last one. If Smith loses the competition, but Nolan gets fired, would the 9ers still keep him and give him a "fresh start" here? The Yorks could blame Nolan. Smith may still go because a new HC would want his guy at QB.

Posted By: Trader Joe (25/07/2008 9:45:09 AM)
Comment: How about a trade to San Diego for something? It seems like Norv and Alex hang out?

Posted By: Bobby J (25/07/2008 9:37:39 AM)
Comment: Im sorry Matt but this has to be one of your most dumbest post to date. Im not saying this to insult because I do appreciate the job you do. However why would you cut a guy who has only started 2 in this league and is still very young, he is the same age as many of the rookies coming in. The NFL season is very long and you always need more then one QB. To give up on him now after only 2 years of actual playing experience would be an idiotic move. Remember last year the Browns named Charlie Frye the starter for week 1 and then benched him and Anderson went on to have a great year.

Posted By: Rich, DE (25/07/2008 9:37:21 AM)
Comment: May the best man win.

Posted By: Nevyn (25/07/2008 9:36:31 AM)
Comment: Nevyn: I wouldn't worry about the QB competition if this OL doesn't gel. There will be plenty of regular season reps for Hill, then O'Sullivan, then Wright, then whoever we sign. We went through something like 52 QB's last year. Really, I think the key to the QB play thing is the OL. If Alex has a little more time, he'll do well. If Alex doesn't win it outright, it will have a lot to do with line play and no one is going to have a chance.

Posted By: Cal (25/07/2008 9:36:21 AM)
Comment: What if Smith loses the competition solely based on his rehab schedule? That is, he picks up the offense better and makes fewer mistakes than Hill, but he can't yet hit the long throws or something. I would assume they'd keep him around in that case. I expect him to pick off more or less where he was when Turner left and think he'll be above average this season and a good QB by next season.

Posted By: Johnster (25/07/2008 9:32:22 AM)
Comment: If Smith bombs, a trade might work but the alternatives are slim at this point, anyone imagine a trade of Smith for: (1) Warner - old Martz guy (2) Leinert-dud 4 dud but AZ? (2) Kyle Boller-Ravens connection (3) Joe Kitna - Det (4) Andrew Walter-Oak (5) JP Losman? (6) A 5th Rd Pick? Whatever happens, I agree that if Smith doesn't start, the 49ers have to get rid of him ASAP to have a fresh start and avoid the unnecessary season-long distraction.

Posted By: Mike in Sac (25/07/2008 9:26:21 AM)
Comment: I am sorry but even if Simth wins the job this year....$9MM per year is a large amount of money to pay a guy who would be nothing better than average. As has been said, a miss at #1 can really set a team back and it is not clear that Smith is a miss but by no means is he a hit or proven NFL player. We have a serious problem no mattter the outcome.

Posted By: Indiana Jim (25/07/2008 9:22:41 AM)
Comment: The Competition is a PR move, and anyone with eyeballs can see who's going to "win" the "competition."

Posted By: Nevyn (25/07/2008 9:17:10 AM)
Comment: Sorry Matt, I have to disagree with you on this one. Aside from issues of injury depth, WHICHEVER QB wins the job this season will have a tenuous hold on it. 2 preseason games proves little, and if the TC winner isn't getting it done, Nolan will need as many options as possible on the bench, as this year is his last shot. No matter who wins, he can't afford to close the book completely on the other guy, whether it makes for a distraction or not. But I wouldn't worry, this contest is rigged for Alex to win it. Its 4 games in if/when Alex has fallen on his face that Hill will get his shot. This may be Smith's last year, but he won't be cut until next year even if he falls to 3rd on the depth chart.

Posted By: Vermonator (25/07/2008 9:16:41 AM)
Comment: The fact that Smith has to out perform a career 3rd stringer to keep his job doesn't say much for this so called compitition. Smith should beat out Hill by a large margain IMO, if it's even close we still have a problem at qb?

Posted By: Jon in SoCal (25/07/2008 9:10:06 AM)
Comment: We should certainly sign Mark Grieb. Then we should go out and get Khari Jones and Kevin Dafft. GO AGS!!! If Smith wins, we won't cut Hill because he just signed a longer term deal and when he loses, he'll just be a journeyman done good. Hill won't request his release because there is no way in hizzle that another team will pay him as much as the 9ers to hold a clipboard. IF Smith loses, not only will we have a high draft choice for a QB, but Hill and JT can have an open competition and hold down the fort for a year. I don't think a FA QB is going to be the answer IF Smith doesn't work out. There's always the trade market, but Scot values draft picks so much and the QB premium for even unproven talent makes it difficult to see us going that route.

Posted By: Indiana Jim (25/07/2008 9:07:45 AM)
Comment: Tim Sheldon, J.T. O'Sullivan has less game experience in the NFL than Shaun Hill. He does not have the skill to compete on the field, despite his little practice experience as a 3rd stringer. Alex Smith and Shaun Hill will have more practice reps than O'Sullivan's entire NFL career just in this one Training Camp alone! He hasn't earned a starting role anywhere yet, other than NFL Europe, and has been on the bench and practice squad of eight NFL teams.

Posted By: Cody Pickett (25/07/2008 9:05:45 AM)
Comment: As a practical matter, despite Nolan's rhetoric about "open competition", the 49ers have no choice other than to give Smith one last, final chance -- before tghe deadline of his bonus due next April -- to show that he can be a starting caliber NFL QB. And that means starting Smith for at least 10 games in 2008. If after 10 or so games Smith totally fails, then 49ers can -- with confidence -- give up on him and on their humungous bad investment back in 2005. If Smith were to be released before then -- say prior to the season opener -- and if he were to go elsewhere and succeed -- many QBs are late bloomers, Earl Morral, Rich Gannon, Warren Moon -- the 49er brass would be plagued by a never-ending stream of questions.

Posted By: NorcalZimm (25/07/2008 9:02:36 AM)
Comment: So what your saying is Smith will not be the starter- J/K. Good Post- Keep up the good work!

Posted By: http:// (25/07/2008 8:58:33 AM)
Comment: If Nolan cuts Smith, what is the likelyhood that Nolan gets cut shortly afterwards? I mean, he has done a horrible job developing Smith, who was the number 1 overall pick of the draft. Just ask Jaws what he thinks of Smiths mechanics, and how a decent QB coach could have easily fixed them. Lets not even talk about the lack of W's. Personally, I think they get rid of Nolan before they get rid Smith, and with good reason! Nolan has a lot more to prove. He also tried to use Smith as a scapegoat last year as well. He is not nearly as smart as he thinks he is.

Posted By: Andrew from Rishikesh (25/07/2008 8:55:26 AM)
Comment: Hi Matt, A tough article with no punches pulled. If Hill does win the starting role I agree with your opinion. If the 9ers succeed with someone other than Smith the next article in the chain will be keep Martz and dump Nolan.

Posted By: tim sheldon (25/07/2008 8:46:40 AM)
Comment: Since we're going on on a limb, J.T. O'Sullivan would be my starter right now, because he knows the system and Martz thinks he can win with him. Neither Alex Smith nor Shaun Hill can match that experience, and neither Smith nor Hill has proven himself as a full-time starter. Also, Smith is coming back from the shoulder injury and still has to show that he's 100 percent game ready. At this moment, O'Sullivan is my starter.

Posted By: Indiana Jim (25/07/2008 8:42:10 AM)
Comment: Matt, shouldn't the opposite also be true? If Smith wins the starting job, shouldn't they release Hill for the same exact reason? The questions would still come, J.T. O'Sullivan would still be the adequate backup, and Hill would have a chance to start fresh somewhere else.

Posted By: Andrew (25/07/2008 8:23:26 AM)
Comment: Matt, I would be very surprised if Alex isn't the starting QB this season. However, that being said, I agree with you that, in the event he is NOT the starting QB, he should be cut loose. That would be the only way the rest of the team could be able to back the starting QB and fully come together as a team without any "my guy/their guy" distractions in the locker room.

Posted By: cristo49 (25/07/2008 8:14:20 AM)
Comment: Matt, your missing a big point. Nolan hates Smith but Scotty Mac loves him. Scotty won't ever allow the Nolan and the coaching staff to make a decision that he doesn't believe in. It's like Smith has a guardian angel, and his name is Scott...

Posted By: The Other Rich (Columbus, OH) (25/07/2008 8:12:41 AM)
Comment: As for a possible 3rd QB, we did just pick up Kyle Wright, who I liked as a possible UFA out of Miami. Problem is, the Vikings got him first, and felt compelled to cut him fairly early, so they may have seen something negative. Then again, they have a lot of back-up depth on that team already.

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