If you don't want to read another word in the tired Alex Smith-Aaron Rodgers debate, you're in luck. You can read all about Josh Morgan making the most of his chances, and you can skip the rest of this blog.
But if you're a glutton, you can continue down the Smith-Rodgers path . . .
* * *
In case you haven't heard, the 49ers and Packers play this evening in an exhibition game at Candlestick. Rodgers starts for the Packers, while J.T. O'Sullivan gets the starting nod for the 49ers. By the time Smith is on the field in the second half, Rodgers likely will have handed the Packers' offense over to rookie quarterback Brian Brohm.
* * *
One of the things that stood out to me in the lead-up to the 2005 draft was something Mike Nolan said in comparing Smith and Rodgers.
He said the 49ers did not want to take the quarterback who would be better in 2005. They wanted to take the quarterback who'd have the better career. As I recall, Nolan even said he thought Rodgers was the most NFL-ready.
What was left unsaid is that he thought Smith would have the better career. That became obvious when the 49ers selected Smith with the No. 1 overall pick.
* * *
Nolan did not want anyone to know what the 49ers were going to do with that No. 1 overall pick. He said he wanted to maintain the value of the pick. The 49ers would have listened to any trade offers. None came before the draft.
Heck, even after the 49ers selected Smith No. 1, Nolan went on national television and said they were still open to trading Smith for the right amount. (Welcome to the 49ers, kid . . . by the way, we're already trying to dump you.)
A half-hour later when Nolan met with the local media, he said for the first time that Smith would, in fact, remain with the 49ers.
When asked this week to revisit the 2005 draft, Nolan answered, "You know, it's a long time ago. It was a long time ago. Let's not go there now because it would be a lot of BS."
* * *
If the 49ers would have indeed taken Rodgers after trading down, it means that the 49ers had him ranked higher than just about any team in the draft. The Packers ultimately took Rodgers at No. 24.
If the 49ers had passed on Smith at No. 1, Smith would not have lasted past No. 5. The Bucs' Jon Gruden really liked Smith. Also, then-Dolphins offensive coordinator Scott Linehan (currently Rams head coach) said he would've wanted his team to take Smith. (The Dolphins ended up taking Ronnie Brown at No. 2.
* * *
Although the 49ers had already settled on Smith, they brought in four players for pre-draft visits: Smith, Rodgers, Braylon Edwards and Antrel Rolle. They did not consider three running backs: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson. The previous regime had just signed Kevan Barlow to a lucrative contract extension, and I'm guessing at that point personnel chief Scot McCloughan probably had a good idea they'd get Frank Gore in the third round.
* * *
A lot of people who read this blog thought at the time the 49ers should go after Rodgers. Certainly, a lot of that can be attributed to geography - much the same way many thought the 49ers should select receiver DeSean Jackson in the first round of the most recent draft. (And, who knows, maybe they should have.)
The people who looked at it objectively and still thought the 49ers should select Rodgers No. 1 are in the minority. (One of my friends who follows the draft religiously - and actually saw Smith play in college -- has been adamant through the years that the 49ers took the wrong guy.)
Inside information also worked to Smith's advantage. I've heard talk about how impressively Smith performed during his interviews at the NFL scouting combine. Some teams weren't sure if they were talking to a CEO or a QB.
* * *
Three years later, I've come to one conclusion: Whomever the 49ers chose with the No. 1 pick was going to have a difficult time.
Rodgers would have had many of the same struggles as Smith for the same reasons. If the 49ers had taken Edwards with the No. 1 overall pick, how could he have succeeded? Who would've been throwing him the ball?
So here we are in Year 4. Smith appears to have lost his handle on the 49ers' starting job and Rodgers is starting for a team that went to the NFC Championship game last season.
The guy who had to wait five hours on draft day to hear his name announced . . . the guy who had to wait through three seasons and an interminable offseason . . . that guy finally gets his chance to play in a system he's been running since college and with a nice supporting cast.
As difficult as it might be to follow Brett Favre in Green Bay, Rodgers is lucky to be in this situation. It could've turned out a lot worse for him.
* * *
Comments | Add Comment
Posted By: mike in MD (17/08/2008 6:16:30 AM)
Comment: I meant Direct's contract w/t NFL should be ENDING soon & it will be time for everyone to make their bids.
Posted By: mike in MD (17/08/2008 6:13:10 AM)
Comment: BOI49ER..yeah that does blow. Their contract w/t NFL should be coming around I believe in a year or 2. I hope COMCAST can get into that action & fix that problem. I don't understand why they both can't have the Ticket. For pre-season at least now you have the NFLN. It looks like they replay all the pre-season games which I do burn. You can get your close up look at the Rooks that way. Not the same experience as "live" action but on the burned DVD (or DVR) you can really analyze the players. Our D looked awesome. RMcDonald was a beast tonight, made me take a step back & say OK an offside here & there is alright with that guy as long as he plays like that. Great W tonight, GO NINERS!!
Posted By: BOI49ER (16/08/2008 4:55:47 PM)
Comment: Mike in Md: I do pay the big bucks to see my 49ers on Direct TV Sunday Ticket, but I'm sorry to say that for all that money, it includes Zero, No pre-season games. Don't they know that the fans willing to spend that much money want to see who makes the team and why, and, oh yea, who the starting QB should/will be?
Posted By: mike in MD (16/08/2008 4:31:13 PM)
Comment: ..thanks Randy. I can't find a way to make that site full screen so I had to go back to streamtv. It's full screen but the only thing is it refreshes fairly regularly & you miss a few seconds. I haven't got around to learning streamripper, it lets you burn it. Quality is good not great. Dang, the dish signal is on the other side of my condo so I can't get NFL Ticket. That blows.
Posted By: BOI49er (16/08/2008 4:22:12 PM)
Comment: Randy in Santa Rosa: Thank you very much for the link!
Posted By: Randy in Santa Rosa (16/08/2008 3:59:17 PM)
Comment: Just a heads up... If you don't get the game on TV in your area, you can watch it online here: http://www.justin.tv/kostatz/schedule
Posted By: oneniner (16/08/2008 3:41:29 PM)
Comment: shobbrobb - "there waas nothing that said he was worthy of the top pick but for the fact we had the no QB".......what about the fact he won so many games in college...i think he only lost one game in his last yr in college!
Posted By: Jed (16/08/2008 2:59:17 PM)
Comment: Check the numbers of Eli Manning in 2007. Poor 56% compl., 20 picks (same as Kitna), immobile, wobbly spiral, no persona ... and one ring. QB laments give way too much cover to Dennis Nolan's four-years of work on the other 21 positions.
Posted By: Offensive man (16/08/2008 1:55:10 PM)
Comment: The 49'ers did not make a bad pick. Any offense player they took would not have been successful with this team.
Posted By: wingster (16/08/2008 1:37:42 PM)
Comment: "transporter" Awesome post. I too can't wait to see how JTO responds with is second consecutive start. I hope we retain Alex, and give him a year learning this Martz offense. I feel as others that Smith is talented and would surprise many if he has a chance to "sit and watch" and coming back next year with a chance to absorb what he is learning.
Posted By: Danny (16/08/2008 1:26:27 PM)
Comment: Darren- I would definitely agree with you that you wouldn't expect a 6th round pick- much less a WR to start over veterans. However, every publication that covers the Niners either locally or nationally has cited Morgan as the most impressive rookie at TP and one of their most impressive receivers. Considering none of the receivers on the depth chart has had anything more than a 50 catch season, I don't think think its far-fetched. But I didn't really consider that Johnson plays the same position as Morgan (SE) and Johnson is projected as the team's #1 WR
Posted By: Transporter (16/08/2008 11:35:08 AM)
Comment: The Name of the Game is to Win... I want to see what JTO does tonight prior to running him or Smith under the bus...
JTO made two stupid plays last week, however he made some passes that were picture perfect. The quick release is what most NFL QB's require with the speed of the game... Lets see if JTO does have what you can not get from charts and thats leadership... Interesting comments in the Sacramento Bee from his past teammates at UC Davis (Maybe Martz has found a Diamond in the Rough) remember Warner. Many people questioned Martz at that time until a couple of SB later.
Smith I hear they say has more raw talent, well if this is the case maybe they are looking at giving Smith a year on the bench until that talent arrives under Martz??? I wish them both the Best of Luck...
Nolan I think would do better as going back to a Defense Coordinator on some other team...
Posted By: 9er faithful in Redding, Ca (16/08/2008 11:11:25 AM)
Comment: We all know that Nolan should have been down the road after last season, and he deserves all the heat he's getting and more. The real culprit though is York, and Jerry Rice got it right last year when he stated literally that "York doesn't have the balls to fire Nolan. "Because of his ego, the guy fires a coach coming off a winning season and making the play-offs...and what have the niners done since? That's right, zero, zilch, nada, nothing. Although it's not applicable to York, unfortunately, the fans at the game tonight should be chanting "fire York and Nolan." Nothing much will change until there both gone...
Posted By: shobbrobb (16/08/2008 11:07:32 AM)
Comment: Mel Kipper ...in retrospect thats exactly what we should have done,no if ands aor buts,How can any sensible person looking bacjk at the situation say otherwise.Many have said we had to draft Alex Smith.Thats a lie.Perfect example Bill Parcells,passed on Matt Ryan (who is far and away a better talent than A.Smith)then turned around and Drafted Chad Henne,The Chargers traded M.Vick, drafted L.T then drafted Drew Brees later,These teams passed on earlier Qbs,didnt have to pay that typr of bonuses that early round QBs get AND got what they needed!Alex Smith had mid round talent draped all around his head in any other year,there waas nothing that said he was worthy of the top pick but for the fact we had the no QB.
Posted By: matt (16/08/2008 10:36:38 AM)
Comment: Darren--no way battle "gets the axe". The most consistant wr is going to get cut? Yeah right.
Posted By: jgwindsor (16/08/2008 10:34:21 AM)
Comment: O'Sullivan worked in that system last year when both he and Martz were with the Detroit Lions. O'Sullivan played in four games with the Lions last season and threw the first regular-season passes of his NFL career. (found in another Pd article)
Then i listened Martz KNBR interview and IMO martz said JTO didn't get any meaningful reps at Det....Seems like selective memory to me....
I do think JTO has gotten the lionshare of snaps and martz has his kind of athlete at the helm....
All i can do now is to get up at 3am and watch the game to form my own muddled opinion....even though i am not a real smith backer i do think smith has been on the wrong side of the 8-ball....i will be really hoping JTO is very good because there is too much other talent on the team to waste on not having someone at QB who can deliver the ball where it needs to be at the correct time.....
i will still be very interested in the Oline because why.....we all know
Posted By: http:// (16/08/2008 10:24:54 AM)
Comment: O'Sullivan worked in that system last year when both he and Martz were with the Detroit Lions. O'Sullivan played in four games with the Lions last season and threw the first regular-season passes of his NFL career. (taken from another PD article)
And then i listen to the Martz KNBR interview where he says JTO really didn't have meaningful reps at Detroit.
Selective memory perhaps.....
Does appear JTO has quite a lead in the competition...
now will have to get up at 3am to observe the competition
Posted By: Darren (16/08/2008 10:16:36 AM)
Comment: Danny, I find it illogical for a no. 6 WR to vault up like this. However, if Morgan continues to shine, I look for either Hill, Lelie, or even possibly Battle to get the axe. Most logically, probably might be Lelie even though we'll take a cap hit.
Posted By: Darren (16/08/2008 10:14:19 AM)
Comment: For the unnamed poster about the crack pipe, let me ask you this:
What if Aikman or other greats had the luxury of a crappy Oline, no WRs, 4 OCs, and a non dedicated coach only good for beating teams that suck? Then, what if the team you were on had such a crappy defense? I thought when teams go into the off season that they improve themselves, but I guess you think JT O Sullivan that comes from 9 teams is a better solution rather then fix the Oline/give Smith some WRs/then pack up Smith as a bust WHEREAS Mike Nolan/49ers SHOULD HAVE USED THE MONEY to get a freaking Oline and some WRs. This team does the same crap EVERY SINGLE YEAR, and posters like you blaiming the QB instead of I can't win Mike Nolan gets to me.
Posted By: Bryan from Mt View (16/08/2008 9:55:33 AM)
Comment: Really good read, thanks Matt. When I read articles about good teams its about what they did to become a winning organization. Articles about bad teams are about "should of". I fear when the history of the Mike Nolan era is written it will be a "should of" piece.
Posted By: http:// (16/08/2008 9:41:35 AM)
Comment: Michael Lucas could you please put down the crack pipe!Alex Smith has never single handedly won a game!What are you going to say Seattle?Cmon this guy has made about three good plays in his career.That Seattle game everyone raves about Alex played like garbage!The commentators were doggin him the whole game!He made one good play and a couple ok ones against a injured Seattle team.You Smith apologists are hilarious!
Posted By: Guest49er (16/08/2008 9:40:36 AM)
Comment: Hi, I'm from the forum that Oldman is on and the views expressed are not necessary from a 49er fan, but that of a crazy old nut that's used to losing.
Matt, the 49ers exhibition, do the 49ers even have a real exhibition? All I see is JT O Sullivan is the starting QB and he sucks. Alex Smith is being thrown into a dumpster, I urge him to ask for a trade if he's going to be the no. 3 QB because Nolan hates him.
I urge 49er fans going to the Packer game to please urge for Nolan's firing. I want to hear boos and a FIRE NOLAN chant. Chant FIre Nolan nice and loud.
Posted By: Danny (16/08/2008 9:37:27 AM)
Comment: Hey Matt- I hope you get a chance to answer this question. What do you think Morgan has to show in the final 3 preseason games to get the start week 1 and if he does start, who does he displace?
Response: It'll be difficult for him to be a starter, unless Bryant Johnson is not healthy for the start of the regular season. --Matt M.
Posted By: Jon in SoCal (16/08/2008 9:33:12 AM)
Comment: Matt:
great article. The 2 biggest surprises in camp (not involving the QB situation) is the emergence of Josh Morgan and the development (or lack thereof) for Balmer and Rachal. Morgan is going o make the squad. Bruce, Bryant, Battle, Hill and Morgan are all on the squad. Lelie is going to get an injury settlement or get on the field for 2 plays a game.
Posted By: Michael Lucas (16/08/2008 9:25:51 AM)
Comment: Smith has been mishandled since day one with the 49ers. I have been a 49er fan 40 years now. I have seen QB's like Joe Montana who had every opportunity to have success when he entered the game. Even Steve Young spent time behind Joe before he got his chance. Not often does it work for a QB to be baptised by fire. Smith was thrown to the wolves and fed to the sharks from day one by the Nolan regime. He had the worst line in the NFL with the worst recievers too.It was an accomplishment to survive the first year and no wonder why he had shellshock in the second year. Please don't get me wrong I am no Smith fan. I did see promise in him in his second year. When given a small chance to succeed with a decent line and a running game and despite still having really bad recievers Smith came around. He single handedly won some games and really looked like he was picking up steam. Then year three when the fat man body flopped on him and seperated his shoulder all was lost. Why? Because the Nolan regime made another mistake. Instead of taking time with him they again threw him to the wolves, pretending that all was alright. Nolan who I actually like is pretty cocky for someone who has made so many mistakes. Now he hands the job to Martz. The lacking ingredient for Smith is confidence. The coach should put his job on the line and stand with Smith as his QB. He should insist that Smith is the man they thought he was and defend him from the press when given the chance. This team will not win with JT. He is the least talented of the three. Hill is a good capable back-up if Smith is injured. Smith needs confidence and a coach with some balls to stand behind him and lead this team. Nolan as Smith goes so will you.
Posted By: Lou (16/08/2008 9:06:26 AM)
Comment: I hear ya, Mike in MD. It's all hindsight now but every time I see the Packers play, I can't help feeling we got robbed somehow when they took McCarthy from us (however unrealistic and irrational that feeling may be). Anyway, that Packers team is impressive--nice work especially by Ted Thompson, along with MM. I guess it just goes to show that it's nice to have a consistent plan that can be implemented over the course of years. As we see now, it has taken quite a while for the 49ers to construct their defense, and this from a regime that specializes in defense. Outside of sheer luck, you can't just keep changing offensive systems and hoping the players you have click with it, and expect any high level of performance. Reminds me of high school ball where the best teams were good because their players had been progressing together through the same systems in grade school through junior high through junior varsity.
Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how JTO does tonight.
Posted By: Rich, San Ramon (16/08/2008 8:53:50 AM)
Comment: In hindsight, the lesson is that matching a rookie Head Coach who is a defensive specialist with a rookie QB is a very risky course of action because they can't develop together.
Posted By: Rich, San Ramon (16/08/2008 8:53:47 AM)
Comment: In hindsight, the lesson is that matching a rookie Head Coach who is a defensive specialist with a rookie QB is a very risky course of action because they can't develop together.
Posted By: Crency (16/08/2008 8:25:11 AM)
Comment: Oh yeah, and "yes" to Proposition 81...
Posted By: JBG (16/08/2008 8:24:51 AM)
Comment: Mel Kipper: If we had taken Edwards and taken Brees, with Hostler's offense last year and the problems with the offensive line, Brees could very well have been knocked out of football with a career-ending injury. Still, hindsight is fun :).
Posted By: mike in MD (16/08/2008 8:23:58 AM)
Comment: thanks Lou..good read. Too bad McCarthy wasn't our HC. He knows Offense & I like that guy. KNOWS QB's & how to work with them. We'll get the right HC soon. Like Rodgers said, things happen for a reason.
Posted By: Crency (16/08/2008 8:23:15 AM)
Comment: Matt, just want to say, what a great piece. Subject matter is ok, but your writing was excellent. One of your best ever, methinks
Posted By: Joe, NJ (16/08/2008 8:15:18 AM)
Comment: Matt, Do the 49ers believe JTO is the future or do you get the idea McCloughan will draft one next year? Note: I still believe in Alex, but Nolan hiring Martz knew he won the Nolan v. Smith fued.
Posted By: Lou (16/08/2008 7:57:26 AM)
Comment: Mike in MD: I don't think McCarthy was a big Rodgers booster during the draft. When he became head coach at GB, he and Aaron had a heart-to-heart to smooth over any bad feelings, at least according to the Journal Sentinel:
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=783582
They've reported on this issue more than once, I believe, in particular when they hired McCarthy.
Posted By: Mel Kipper (16/08/2008 7:53:41 AM)
Comment: In retrospect we should have drafted Edwards and then signed Brees when he became a FA... but it is what it is.
Response: I know you're Mel Kipper, but there's a draft expert named Mel Kiper Jr. In looking back at his 2005 draft rankings, he had Smith rated ahead of Rodgers. His top seven, regardless of position, were: WR Mike Williams, RB Ronnie Brown, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Cadillac Williams, RB Cedric Benson, QB Smith, QB Rodgers. --Matt M.
Posted By: mike in MD (16/08/2008 6:43:18 AM)
Comment: Good morning Matt. I forgot to give you my vote..yes, that 81 player breakdown was awesome. Definitely keep it coming. Question for you...since McCarthy was our OC during that Draft do you know how much input he had with Nolan & McCloughan in choosing the QB? It seems like it shouldn't have been too difficult to see Smith wasn't a good match for the West Coast Offense McCarthy was going to run. You need a QB w/a quick release & decision making + it's mostly a lot of short ball control passes which are not Smith's strengths. McCarthy should have been able to see Smith wasn't going to be a good match for his system. I wonder if he favored Rodgers while McNolan went on to choose Smith. Like you said I think any QB would have really struggled to develop being thrown to the wolves on our scrub team back then.
Posted By: Jed (16/08/2008 6:30:23 AM)
Comment: 2005 turned out to be a weak draft. I was an Edwards fan, but I agreed with all who said that you can't pay no. 1 money to a guy involved in so few plays. And he's not amazing. Whether JTO plays well or not, Smith should get a chance to start v. Bears. And we know after five years that Erickson-Nolan could flip flop, later trying to boast that he deeked the Cards with JTO.
Posted By: Dirk (16/08/2008 5:53:46 AM)
Comment: If JTO really looks bad tonigt we can expect a loosing season.
Posted By: Medford (16/08/2008 3:39:56 AM)
Comment: Matt please answer this question. What happends if JTO really looks bad tonight?
Response: Then the "competition" continues, and we'll all wait to see who starts Thursday against the Bears. --Matt M.
Posted By: Medford (16/08/2008 3:37:36 AM)
Comment: I always thought in that draft they should have taken Braylon Edwards with the #1 pick and moved up in the draft and taken Jason Campbell
Posted By: Shaun F. (16/08/2008 2:16:51 AM)
Comment: Oldman, may I suggest a laxative? Please tell us what was sensational
Posted By: Marc - NJ49er (16/08/2008 2:12:22 AM)
Comment: Matt the evidence is in the results. Aaron now has higher then usual expectations on him to keep the level of play up. He benefits having McCarthy in his corner for sure, Alex really hasn't had that sort of HC support, and desperately needs it now. If Nolan were to start him next week against Chicago I think it would serve to mend some of the differences created last year, and perhaps, show whether further support is warranted with the 1st team responsibilities. I also think Alex has shown to be pretty durable, something Aaron hasn't proven yet.
Posted By: Dirk (16/08/2008 2:01:44 AM)
Comment: Someone picked 24th joins a much better team than someone picked 1st. That's one reason for all those #1 "busts": They go to the worst team in the league. Without capable teammates no player can shine.
Posted By: oldman9er (16/08/2008 2:01:31 AM)
Comment: Meh.. maybe I have been overly praising of you, Matt... but you have shown the many signs of sensationalism that I and the world despises. Guess you are just doing your job... I don't know. This is the kind of crap that I expect to read from a lesser being.
Posted By: jkc (16/08/2008 1:35:13 AM)
Comment: my fourth Awesome!
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