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Final, final 49ers' 53-man roster projection

UPDATE: Geez, I sure screwed this one up. The final, final wasn't so final after all. I inadvertantly failed to transfer CB Reggie Smith's name from my paper copy to electronic file when I originally wrote this projection. My apologies to everyone on the planet named Smith.

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There is one game standing between our 53-man roster prediction and the mandatory cuts on Saturday. The only thing that will signficantly alter these predictions is an injury or two.

Here is the final, final Instant 49ers roster prediction.

Quarterbacks (3): J.T. O'Sullivan, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill. Comment: Pretty straight forward.

Running backs (4): Frank Gore, DeShaun Foster, Michael Robinson, Zak Keasey. Comment: Moran Norris and Thomas Clayton are on the other side of the bubble right now.

Wide receivers (6): Isaac Bruce, Arnaz Battle, Josh Morgan, Bryant Johnson, Jason Hill, Ashley Lelie. Comment: If the 49ers keep five receivers, Lelie does not make it. But the 49ers proved Monday that Lelie is still in the game. If they had written him off, they would not have allowed him to practice. But they want him to make this team because he gives them a proven speed element. If they were set on cutting him, they would've cut him as soon as he passed the physical. Instead, they're taking a chance that he'll get reinjured, and then they'd owe him a good chunk of change in an injury settlement.

Tight ends (3): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Billy Bajema. Comment: Mike Martz would not mind moving Walker to wide receiver. Depending on the health and effectiveness of the wideouts, Walker could see a lot of action in passing situations.

Offensive line (9): Joe Staley, Eric Heitmann, David Baas, Jonas Jennings, Adam Snyder, Tony Wragge, Barry Sims, Chilo Rachal, Cody Wallace. Comment: Barring injuries, the two rookies don't figure to get into uniforms on game days.

Defensive line (6): Justin Smith, Isaac Sopoaga, Aubrayo Franklin, Ray McDonald, Ronald Fields, Kentwan Balmer. Comment: Balmer has to show a lot more to find his way into the rotation.

Linebackers (8): Patrick Willis, Manny Lawson, Parys Haralson, Takeo Spikes, Jeff Ulbrich, Tully Banta-Cain, Dontarrious Thomas, Larry Grant Roderick Green. Comment: Special teams is the push guys like Thomas and Grant need to wrap up roster spots. Green gets bumped in favor of Banta-Cain.

Defensive backs (10): Nate Clements, Walt Harris, Michael Lewis, Mark Roman, Dashon Goldson, Shawntae Spencer, Tarell Brown, Donald Strickland, Keith Lewis, Reggie Smith. Comment: The competition here is as good as it's been in years. K.Lewis gets the nod because of his special-teams play. Also, if the team did not think he'd be on the team, they would not have outfitted him with the helmet radio device during exhibition games. (Lewis might not be able to play in Friday's game with an undisclosed illness, but the coaching staff already knows what he can do.)

Specialists (4): Joe Nedney, Andy Lee, Brian Jennings, Allen Rossum. Comment: Rossum is the only one without a spot locked up, but they'd be back searching for answers in the return game without him.

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Last five: Lelie, K.Lewis, Keasey, Grant, Rossum.

Next five: OLB Roderick Green, CB Marcus Hudson, OLB Jay Moore, DL Walter Curry, FB Moran Norris.

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Projected practice squad: DE Louis Holmes, OG Brian de la Puente, WR Dominique Zeigler, RB Thomas Clayton, S D.J. Parker, OT Chris Patrick, WR Cam Colvin, *OL Ramiro Pruneda (member of international practice squad program).

Note: I'm projecting OLB Jay Moore gets claimed off waivers. If he does not, he'll be added to the practice squad in a heartbeat . . . . S Lewis Baker, whom I thought might be on the practice squad, has been placed on injured reserve after passing through waivers. This makes him ineligible to practice or play this season, but the 49ers retain his rights for another year. . . . If the 49ers keep Lelie on the 53-man roster, they might keep only one WR on the practice squad. Therefore, someone like DL Atiyyah Ellison could be on the squad this season. . . . Here's something I wrote in early July (it explains the practice squad: "Early, early look at 49ers' p-squad situation."

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Today is the first day of kindergarten. I've decided to be involved in taking my 5-year-old to her first day of school. Therefore, I will not supply live updates from Santa Clara today.

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Lowell Cohn wrote his column about the 49ers' head coach today: "In macho NFL, Nolan unafraid to rely on wife."

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Comments | Add Comment

Posted By: Nevyn (28/08/2008 6:50:12 PM)
Comment: I'll keep this one short. I agree that I dont like Robinson as short yardage back, but I don't mind him as 3rd down back, or 2nd back in some weirder formations. While Foster is Clayton's competition, I believe if Clayton stays on the roster it will be as a 4th back at Lelie's expense, but I don't expect that. TBC or Green I don't mind who we choose, but there is cap accelration in cutting TBC, and its been shown than Green likely wont be picked up if cut.

Posted By: jsl (28/08/2008 12:14:23 PM)
Comment: Nevyn: Good points. I agree MR has been a good special teams player. My disagreements with you are two: first, I just don't think he's that good a blocker in the backfield (he missed a good number last year); second, I don't see him as a situational runner either (he was just terrible on goal line rushes last year, never seeming to get his way in.) Your best point -- that Foster is really Clayton's competition -- is double-edged. You're right, of course, but both Frank and Foster have injury histories, and if both were hurt I'd rather be running Clayton than Robinson -- especially with the moves Clayton showed last week (which are far beyond anything we're ever likely to see from MR). As for TBC, the argument seems to be he can play LB; Green can't, and is really just a pass rusher. Well, right again. But (1) we have plenty of LBs this year and (2) we NEED a pass rusher like Green, especially until Balmer learns to cut it in the bigs. Finally, despite the annual 3-4 ballyhoo, this is a better 4-3 team, with Smith playing down and on the line (next to McDonald, preferably); thus, linemen are a valuable commodity.

Posted By: Robby (27/08/2008 2:35:51 PM)
Comment: There is an old saying in sports, "you can't make the club if you're in the tub." Lelie has been 'in the tub' since the 9ers have signed him. Clayton should make the club over Lelie. With the recieving ability of Davis and Walker at TE plus the recieving ability of all of our running backs, J.T. will have plenty of weapons to throw the ball to. On defence, I think that Jay Moore has a real shot at pushing out TBC.

Posted By: Nevyn (27/08/2008 1:52:59 PM)
Comment: When it comes to TBC over Green (and lets not raise worry too much until that determination is made), what TBC can do is play linebacker. Both guys can put their hand down and rush on 3rd down, but Green has never really shown an aptitude for being a 3-4 rush guy. Now, with Smith sometimes being there, and then Haralson, that may not be a deal breaker, but TBC fits the defense better and is more versatile. Green is a specialist. As for Lewis, he may well not make the team, but if he does it will be because he was once our top special teamer, and he can back up both safety spots. Cut him, and we have no true backup SS (Goldson is more of a FS). Could still happen though, with all the corners we'll want to keep.

Posted By: Nevyn (27/08/2008 1:47:58 PM)
Comment: jsl, for legibility I'll give 2 replies for yuor comments:Mrob is far better on special teams than Clayton (in fact, recognized as one of the top special teamers in the league). And the game against Chicago should show why that is important. Robinson stands out in both coverage and returns. What's more, he is our best backfield pass blocker, and a solid route runner with good hands, making him a good situational back. The question is whether he can be a backup or starting runner in the league, and I agree that he has not shown that ability. But as for Clayton, his competition is really Deshaun Foster, not Robinson. A backup RB that can take a few series to give you a breather or produce if you're injured for the week should be the role Clayton aspires to. And that used to be Hicks, and now stands to be Foster. That's who Clayton has to unseat. Personally, I wouldn't get that worked up over it. Even money that Clayton wouldn't be claimed if waived, and even if he is, RB is the easiest position to fill in the NFL.

Posted By: Darren (27/08/2008 12:27:26 PM)
Comment: jsl, that's a good analogy on MRob, I never would've figured he was 'Nolan's guy', but it is a disturbing pattern that mediocre players get the nod over good players, and expensive players get the nod over lower paid player (Roman vs. Goldson). But then, when you cross the boss as Alex Smith did, Nolan benches him in favor of JT O Sullivan, a cheap player. But then doing all that makes Nolan a flip flopper and he needs to be fired right away. It's sad quite frankly to make it this easy to fire him, and Nolan continues to steal money for himself.

Posted By: jsl (27/08/2008 11:58:26 AM)
Comment: Good analysis. But three questions. First, while Robinson looks like a "smart" player, Clayton shows he can make big plays -- something missing to date from Robinson's repetoire. Is MR a keeper because he's a Nolan guy? Is he that much better (or valuable as) a special teams player? In short, why keep him over Clayton? Second, and similarly, while TBC is a "Nolan guy" and has played pretty well with the second and third teams this preseason, he doesn't seem to be the pass rusher Green is -- and he was simply terrible all last season. Why keep TBC over Greene? What does he do that Green doesn't do better? Finally, Keioth Lewis always seems to be getting burned on D; now he's been looking bad on special teams. (Didn't lose a guy near the goal line on a runback last week that went for long yardage?) Is he making the team IYHO just because he's another Nolan guy?

Posted By: Frank (26/08/2008 11:41:28 PM)
Comment: The NFL draft is pretty much a crapshoot...how many "can't miss" prospects have we seen on just about every team that don't amount to much. Overall, I think McNolan's done a good job...if you don't agree, just look at the 2005 roster and what most of us agree will be the roster this season. It's not all draft picks...it's not that way on just about any team you want to single out. It's a mix of draftees and FA's...that's the general recipe in today's NFL. It's a real rarity to see any player stay with one team for their entire career. FA has changed the landscape. But, you still have to draft smart and compliment that with equally smart FA acquisitions. Just like the draft, some of those work out, some don't. Having said all that, again, look how far our roster has come...and then tell me Nolan and McCloughan haven't done well. Fans and analysts (even the "Matts") tend to give up on young players too soon. Rachal and Balmer are two young studs...both have a lot to learn, but both have good coaches to teach them how to become good NFL players. Were they good draft picks? Way, way too early to tell...anyone who says they're busts simply doesn't know what they're talking about.

Posted By: SFJay (26/08/2008 10:19:43 PM)
Comment: Rosstradamus - Thanks for the research but comment was not about starting it was about not playing i.e. riding the pine. I am pretty sure the number of teams in the NFL that have 2 of their top picks (or even 4 for that matter) that don't play at all is far less than 22.

Posted By: SFJay (26/08/2008 10:14:36 PM)
Comment: Randy in SR - He didn't say anything. Sorry shootme but your response has nothing to do with the comments I made and the debate at hand.

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 9:13:37 PM)
Comment: I listed the Cowboys and Chargers, and who is the second Browns pro bowler? Is your criteria really that it has to be one of the top 3 drafts of the year to not be bad?

Posted By: Jim in Walnut Creek (26/08/2008 8:41:28 PM)
Comment: Matt, you are there every day, and I'm not. I would be inclined to tune things a little differently: Keep Norris ilo Bajema Keep Zeigler ilo Lelie Keep W. Curry ilo Franklin Keep Green ilo Grant (PS) Keep Hudson ilo Keasey

Posted By: 49erAli (26/08/2008 6:49:37 PM)
Comment: Great job as always Matt. Wouldn't you say 6 WR's and 1 on the practice squad is one too many? If Lelie is healthy and undeniably earns a spot in the top 5, why not send Jason Hill to the practice squad and keep Clayton or an extra LB instead? Since we are only keeping 1 FB, I think we can afford to keep an extra RB. I'd just hate to see Clayton picked up by another team after we were the only team to have faith in him late in the 07' draft and spent over a year developing him. Hope you had a blessed 1st day of school!

Posted By: Scott Penrose (26/08/2008 5:51:24 PM)
Comment: Hi Matt. I know that Billy Bajema is a good blocker, but what else can he give to the team. I would think that they would want to keep thomas clayton or domnique zieglar because they have more uses that bajema.

Posted By: Jason (26/08/2008 5:45:59 PM)
Comment: Cut Lelie and Bajema to make room for Clayton (seems too good to let go...we'll see if he ends up somewhere) and Norris (we need a short yardage guy).

Posted By: Ltrain (26/08/2008 4:33:35 PM)
Comment: I think Green makes the team and Grant gets cut or goes to the practice squad. I'd also keep Zeigler and cut Lelie. Otherwise, great roster. Hope your 5 yr old enjoys her first day of school.

Posted By: KezarMike (26/08/2008 4:20:37 PM)
Comment: The first three drafts of McNolan have basically stunk. Two impact players - game changers - drafted - Gore and Willis. Staley looks like he will be a very good player. Maybe Morgan will be a star. No team wins without some great players and I'm sorry to say that this team ain't been gettin' em.

Posted By: Toby (26/08/2008 4:15:18 PM)
Comment: I can tell you that the Cowboys and Browns both have 2 Pro Bowlers from the 2005 draft. I can also tell you that the Chargers picked up 4 guys that you may have heard of (Merriman, Castillo, V. Jackson, D. Sproles). As for the other teams you mentioned, let's see, the Bears have gone to the Super Bowl, the Browns won 10 games, the Bucs have won their division twice and the Titans have gone to the playoffs. The other teams, they all have fired their coach. So where do the Niners fall? They haven't even cracked .500 and we still have the same guys running the show.

Posted By: Randy in Santa Rosa (26/08/2008 3:31:13 PM)
Comment: shootme- Well said.

Posted By: Ted Kwalik (26/08/2008 3:27:43 PM)
Comment: I like the fact that so many of us are worried that one of the young Niners are not going to make the team and probably get pick up off waivers. When was the last time we worried about any Niner getting picked off of waivers. It's a good problem to have.

Posted By: shootme (26/08/2008 3:20:22 PM)
Comment: SFJay - in his defense... if there's one place (technically two) that I want depth, it's o-line and d-line (in that order). Without that, you end up drafting a QB like Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington... The best place to start is right up front with the hogs. Good lines make mediocre skill players look good.

Posted By: Ryan (Stockton) (26/08/2008 3:14:10 PM)
Comment: Puhleeze. First off, don't try to disguise your name it's not like anyone knows you. Second off, I care because it shows what kind of character the 49ers coach has.

Posted By: Puhleeze (26/08/2008 3:08:00 PM)
Comment: Ryan, Alex Smith ain't trippin over it'... Why are you and these other fans?? http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/49ers/archives/014880.html

Posted By: SFJay (26/08/2008 3:07:25 PM)
Comment: Randy in SR - So it's called depth hmmm... thanks for enlightening me. I did not realize we were so stacked with talent all the way around that we could afford to use top draft picks on guys who won't even play or dress on gameday. Looks like we are primed to make a SB run this year.

Posted By: Ryan (Stockton) (26/08/2008 3:05:34 PM)
Comment: Nolan can't talk to Alex Smith to explain the Peter king debacle? Kentwan Balmer? Alex Smith? Last years war of words with Alex Smith? I'm sure I'm missing a lot of other screw ups. Nolan literally needs to either reach NFC Championship game or Superbowl for the Yorks to justify keeping him as coach. The negatives outweigh the positives astronomically. WTF.

Posted By: NJM (26/08/2008 2:56:22 PM)
Comment: Matt -- Understandable projections at WR. But I can't help think that Ziegler has a shot at sticking. Here's why: Lelie and Battle qualify for a MASH unit, Bruce is old -- making him a higher risk -- and Bryant Johnson...heck, I don't even know what he looks like in a Niners uniform. Hill -- oh yeah, he was hurt almost all of last year. The two guys this team seem capable of counting on to actually be in uniform are Morgan and Ziegler (who looked really good, by the way). How to make space? Well, I just have to wonder... Since it's pre-season (i.e., meaningless), why wouldn't Nolan let Clayton and Robinson return kick-offs to see which brings more "game" in that area...and let Ziegler try his hand at returning punts (I mean, the guy has hands like Spiderman -- we know he can catch anything)? If those guys prove effective, you could cut Rossum loose (especially since Battle -- when he's actually healthy -- could also return punts), freeing up a spot for Ziegler. Plus, remember, BJ is on a one-year deal, Bruce is old, and who knows hom much longer you can count on Battle or Lelie from a health standpoint? Shouldn't this be one area where the team makes an investment to grow someone who shows promise? Your thoughts?

Posted By: Randy in Santa Rosa (26/08/2008 2:56:09 PM)
Comment: Good interview with JTO: http://media.knbr.com/knbr/0825jto.mp3

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 2:56:01 PM)
Comment: Ricky, first you need to explain what you are comparing to to decide that 8/22 is not good. Second, as I already pointed out, we stand to play more 2 TE than I form, which makes Delanie Walker as much/more of a starter as Zak Keasey.

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 2:43:35 PM)
Comment: For fun, I went through the rest of the '05 drafts, and the only ones I could find clearly better than the niners? Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, and (arguably) San Diego Chargers. 3 drafts out of 32 better than ours 4 years later. What ya got to say, Toby?

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 2:34:11 PM)
Comment: Here are the '05 draft classes of the teams with the top 8 picks. You tell me which ones outdid us: Dolphins (Ronnie Brown, Matt Roth, Channing Crowder, Travis Daniels, Anthony Alabi, Kevin Vickerson), Browns (Braylon Edwards, Brodney Pool,Charlie Frye, Antonio Perkins,David McMillan,Nick Speegle,Andrew Hoffman, Jon Dunn), Bears (Cedric Benson, Mark Bradley,Kyle Orton,Airese Currie, Chris Harris,Rodriques Wilson), Buccaneers (Carnell Williams, Barrett Ruud,Alex Smith,Chris Colmer, Dan Beuning, Donte Nicholson, Larry Brackins, Anthony Bryant,Rick Razzano,Paris Warren,Hamza Abdullah,JR Russell), Titans (Adam Jones, Micheal Roos,Courtney Roby,Brnadon Jones,Vincent Fuller,David Stewart, Roydell Williams,Damien Nash,Daniel Loper,Bo Scaife,Reynaldo Hill), Vikings (Troy Williamson, Erasmus James, Marcus Johnson, Dustin Fox,Ciatrick Fason,CJ Mosley,Adrian Ward) and Cardinals (Rolle,Arrington, Eric Green,Darryl Blackstock,Elton Brown, Leron McCoy). So tell me Toby, which draft is better? Who on that list has 3 players from the draft projected as '08 starters? How many pro bowlers on that list (and how many not from the 1st round?) How many of those teams still have 6 or more of their picks on the roster? Thats 1/4 of the league I gave you, and the picks closest to our own. If you want to take it deeper, look at the other 24 teams and tell me how many drafts are better.

Posted By: Ricky (26/08/2008 2:20:06 PM)
Comment: Since some of you guys use different math then I do, I'll simply lay out the defense and let you add them up. How many draft picks do you see? Soap, Franklin, McDonald, Justin Smith, Willis, Spikes, Lawson, Clements, Lewis, Roman, Harris. I see 4. How about offense? Bruce, B. Johnson, Gore, Keasey, V. Davis, Jennings, Staley, Wragge, Snyder, Heitmann and J.T. O'SULLIVAN!!! I count 4 again. 8 out of 22, that's not good.

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 2:16:05 PM)
Comment: Hey Toby, what I see are 3 people who are slated to start, one player who has made the pro bowl, and 6 people still on the 53 man roster. Great draft? No. Awful draft? No. But if you look in the grand scheme of the typical draft 4 years later for a team, not too bad. Basically what hurts this draft is the pick of Smith, which, while it hasn't panned out, is the pick at least 90% of nfl gms and coaches would have made if put in that situation.

Posted By: Toby (26/08/2008 2:09:14 PM)
Comment: Hey Nevyn - Here is the 2005 draft (Smith, Baas, Gore, Snyder, Fields, Rasheed Marshall, Derrick Johnson, Daven Holly, Marcus Maxwell, Patrick Estes & Billy Bajema). I see a benched QB, 2 guards who have yet to play a full season due to numerous injuries, a great RB and bunch of guys not with the Niners or out of the NFL. Besides our wonderful #3 TE Bajema. So I ask, you really think this was a great draft?

Posted By: JBG (26/08/2008 2:08:55 PM)
Comment: Since the conversation seems to have moved from the roster to past drafts, just a couple of observations: (1) Balmer and Rachal were picked as much for the future as for the present (anticipating FA losses on the OL and DL). It's been a long time since we've been able to do that. (2) In reply to Niner Ted, if there were no #1 picks left at our drafting position (29) last year, why would any team have traded 2 #2's anything of equivalent value? One can argue about whether we should have gone for Merling or Lofton or someone else, but even if we had we'd be having the same conversation. Balmer (or any of these other guys) was a reach at this spot, but it's unlikely we could have done any better. Given his work ethic and physical gifts, if Balmer gets the right coaching and stays clean, he should turn out to be a valuable, if not spectacular, defensive player.

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 2:03:11 PM)
Comment: Toby, you always make this same claim, and never go into detail about the volume of starters OTHER teams have from recent drafts, which , coincidentally is part if what Marco was asking for. You are also spinning your answer, because Lawson was acquired using 2 non firsts, Snyder has starter more than a full season including half a year at LT and is our projected starting LG, and Baas is our projected starting RG. Not to mention (again) the contributions of people like Andy Lee and Delanie Walker.

Posted By: Toby (26/08/2008 1:55:42 PM)
Comment: Marco, allow me to answer your question. McNolan's drafts have been below average to down right awful. Besides all the players that have been cut, how about this -- Only Frank Gore was drafted outside the 1st round and done anything for this team. So please, all you supporters of how great our drafts have been, enlighten me as to why you think that. And if you are basing your evaluation on "potential" thanks for playing, but that's just not good enough for a team that can't crack the .500 barrier in the worst division in football.

Posted By: 49er69 (26/08/2008 1:55:20 PM)
Comment: kem 99.. Regarding Strickland, he has a cap credit that counts 7 million towards next years cap (incentives), if he is cut we gain the 7 million this year. We won't lose the 7 million. Money not spent this year rolls into next years cap. Instead of being 7 million under the cap now we will be 14 million under. That being said cut Stickland and keep Hudson.

Response: Strickland will not be cut. But let's say he is, then the 49ers will reach an arrangement with another player to sock away $7M in unattainable yet "likely-to-be-earned" incentives. --Matt M.

Posted By: Rosstradamus (26/08/2008 1:51:09 PM)
Comment: The drafts really have been one of the lone bright spots for the 49ers under McNolan. The 49ers have had a total of 35 draft picks since McNolan took over coming into the 2005 draft. 26 are still on the team, and 8 currently hold starting spots. Others like Josh Morgan, Parys Haralson, and Ronald Fields figure to see significan playing time and possibly start by season's end. Only 1 of the 9 players cut (Brandon Williams) was a first day draft pick. 4 of those players cut are still in the league with other teams, meaning that of 35 players drafted 30 are still NFL football players, a very solid percentage

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 1:50:51 PM)
Comment: Also, addressing this year's draft, the amount of starters from it is not a surprise. The draft was puzzling AT THE TIME, because it was easy to anticipate that each of Smith, Balmer and Rachal would have tough fights for playing time due to others at their position. In fact, the prospect of an impact from Morgan makes the immediate impact of this class look slightly better than it did on draft day. As far as judging this year's selections, it will probably take 3 years to get any feel for their quality. But its certainly true that this was never a "immediate help" kind of draft (barring a Josh Morgan miracle)

Posted By: Niner Ted (26/08/2008 1:48:51 PM)
Comment: Matt, what's funny is that before Training Camp began, I wrote you and said that we reached on Balmer. When we did pick there was clearly no #1 picks left. I thought we should of traded our pick for 2 #2's or possibly or 5th rounder back. You gave me the politically correct answer and defended the niners. Now we have a first round guy that might not even suit up? Those are moves that playoff teams make not teams that come in last in the division. We can't afford to sit anymore first rounders. Your doing something today that some fathers truly miss out on. That's a big deal!

Response: The 49ers should've traded the No. 1 pick in 2005 for more picks. They should've traded this pick for more picks. However, if no team has targeted a player they want to trade away draft picks to acquire, those trades simply can't occur. --Matt M.

Posted By: Houston 9er (26/08/2008 1:48:22 PM)
Comment: That was a good read from Cohn. Nolan seems to acknowledge some of his communication shortcomings. I'm still not a fan of Nolan's but at least he dropped the facade for long enough to answer questions honestly.

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 1:45:59 PM)
Comment: Well, Marco, you are missing David Baas, Adam Snyder (its possible one or the other wont start or will be hurt, but if they both are you are missing Chilo Rachal). It could be further argued that you are missing Delanie Walker (who is on the first team in the 2 TE package and thus arguably as much or more a starter as Keasey), and perhaps Josh Morgan. And if haralson is not a "starter", then Ray Mcdonald is. And of course, you also missed Andy Lee.

Posted By: Houston 9er (26/08/2008 1:45:45 PM)
Comment: I haven't done the analysis some people have but it just feels to me the 9ers have done a decent job drafting players over the past few years. McCloughan has a good reputation in the league as I hear it.

Posted By: DMC (26/08/2008 1:44:37 PM)
Comment: Good read from Cohn.

Posted By: Marco from Stockton (26/08/2008 1:34:32 PM)
Comment: Well I am counting six or seven players drafted in the last four years who are starters for the Niners this year. Gore, Davis, Staley, Willis, Lawson, Sopoaga, and maybe Parys Haralson. Not sure what that means? I can't blame Nolan for what happen before his arrival, I just don't know what the real stats are for most NFL teams? It would be interesting to get a refernce point to determine how good has McNolan been on drafting.

Posted By: Giovanni Carmazzi (26/08/2008 1:18:02 PM)
Comment: The patriots almost never start a rookie.

Posted By: Rosstradamus (26/08/2008 1:13:49 PM)
Comment: SFJay- I did some research on your inquiry about how many teams aren't starting their first two picks. All of this is according to the unofficial depth charts posted on each teams site. Of the 32 NFL teams, 22 are starting neither of their first two picks. Only 2 (Atlanta- Ryan and Baker, and Denver- Clady and Royal) are starting both of their first two picks. Subsequently, both Atlanta's picks came in round 1. The other teams who are starting one of their first picks are: Carolina (Jeff Otah), Chicago (Matt Forte), Houston (Duane Brown), Kansas City (Glenn Dorsey), Miami (Jake Long), New England (Jerod Mayo), New Orleans (Sed Ellis), and St. Louis (Chris Long). Of those only two (Forte and Royal) were chosen after we had a chance to grab them. Of the 12 projected to start, 5 came from the very strong class of OT that we gone long before we had a pick. Also 5 of those twelve are top ten picks. There are no Guards (Rachals position) projected to start, and the two DT's who are starting (Balmers position), were top 7 picks. My survey did not take into account rookies who will come off the bench and still see decent time, like many running backs.

Posted By: Darren (26/08/2008 1:12:30 PM)
Comment: What am nOlan not is starting Moore? Sheesher moo! Start Moore! Fire Nolan! Is am not Green going to loose it to? Are lelie part of it? Geez! What are Rossum? Should start Grady Jackson for pass rush too!

Posted By: Randy in Santa Rosa (26/08/2008 12:56:22 PM)
Comment: Mike- I think Nolan was counting on Soap to be his NT when he got here. Unfortunately, that experiment didn't work out. I agree about Franklin though... That's why we're running this hybrid.

Posted By: JBG (26/08/2008 12:56:15 PM)
Comment: Rachal: I suspect he'll get some appreciable playing time this season...we already know we have two fragile starting guards (Baas, Snyder), and Wragge can spell only one at a time. Balmer: sure hope he gets some intensive technique coaching. He's physically gifted and seems to be willing to work hard...only one piece left. Maybe BJ can help? Bajema: Rather than burn a roster spot with him, the Niners would have been better training a reserve OL to play the position on running/short yardage plays. Then they could keep Jay Moore, who would be more valuable in the defensive rotation (and who, I fear, is going to end up in a Patriots uniform).

Posted By: Alameda Bill (26/08/2008 12:55:49 PM)
Comment: At the time Robert Jordan left the team, NOlan said he would like to have him back. I have heard nothing of Jordan since, but I have been out of the country on vacation. Has anybody heard if he signed elsewhere, or any news on his where abouts?

Response: Robert has not expressed a desire to the 49ers to play football again. --Matt M.

Posted By: Marco from Stockton (26/08/2008 12:53:50 PM)
Comment: So on intial viewing it looks like this year's draft was so-so to fair? Josh Morgan looks like the only possible contributor this year.

Posted By: mike in MD (26/08/2008 12:45:15 PM)
Comment: Franklin's a career backup. Pass rush AND vs the run he doesn't do the job. On a run he even gets pushed back by 1 OLineman. Demanding double-teams? Nah, hardly ever if at all. Matt says McCloughan is on the lookout for another NT now & until after the final cuts. IMO..the Defense should have been built DLine first, NT first. Rush OLB second, then #1 CB. Then you go from there. Switching to the 3-4 which Nolan wanted from the beginning the NT & rush OLB should have been the top priority. It's been 4 years & we're still looking for them. Luckily we can switch to the 4-3 which we're much more effective at overall with our personnel. because of our personnel.

Posted By: Randy in Santa Rosa (26/08/2008 12:34:44 PM)
Comment: Wow. He's not the best, but Franklin's job isn't to pass rush... McDonald IS a starter... Somewhere there is a short yellow bus one rider short...

Posted By: Darren (26/08/2008 12:27:49 PM)
Comment: Can the 49ers cut Franklin? This guy is the worse player yet in a pass rush! We need to get some more Dline out there! Put MCDonald as a starter, thanks! FIre Nolan. And what's up with starting Roman because he can wear the microphone in his helmet, but Goldson can't? GOod grief, now we get to hear D Smith in action, wow!

Posted By: mike in MD (26/08/2008 12:13:23 PM)
Comment: Too bad JMoore hasn't showed enough yet to take TBC's spot. I agree w/cutting Green. He got too easily locked up by OLinemen. He's an OK to maybe good pass rusher. TBC played good vs the 2nd stringers. Moore has more of that P word, potential + he's young. We're weak at the WILL spot. Matt..can Reggie Smith play special teams for KLewis? Seems like he's slipped a little. We would be able to save a spot. The same could be said about Rossum. He's the best returner we've got but I can't believe none of the WR's or someone else can return kicks. Morgan or Zeigler? Who's our short yardage back when Gore needs a rest, is it Robinson?

Posted By: Randy in Santa Rosa (26/08/2008 12:04:48 PM)
Comment: SFJay- It's called depth ;-) Balmer will be in rotation and Rachal will be pushing for playing time next year. It's nice for once to finally have some depth!

Posted By: Bad-example (San Jose) (26/08/2008 11:57:52 AM)
Comment: Seems like this year's expected cuts are better players than in any of the Nolan years to date. Fair to say that is a good indicator of the rising talent level of the roster?

Posted By: Jon in SoCal (26/08/2008 11:55:54 AM)
Comment: Damn, I was hoping that Steve Young was going to be a dark horse candidate for 9ers QB. What's up with McCain and Mormans? TBC, Green or Grant? Flip a coin.

Posted By: SFJay (26/08/2008 11:54:04 AM)
Comment: Good post Ricky. I was just thinking the same thing after reading the player comments. I find it amazing that of our top 4 picks, our 3rd rounder Smith is the only guy who might see some playing time and that 2 of the top 4 who are OL (a position I thought we were very thin at) may not even dress on game day. Our 1st round pick not playing unfortunately doesn't shock me in the least, I never really understood that pick at all. I wonder how many teams in the NFL have their top 2 picks riding the pine?

Posted By: Darren (26/08/2008 11:51:45 AM)
Comment: Nevyn, my system is Nintendo DS, and I don't have the so called update disk. I have to go on the Madden 09 site, look at Josh Morgan that Madden didn't put in and put in his numbers. Just like I'd have to program Brett Favre on the Jets, sheesh. A good Madden game needs to wait until September or so to come out. And the nos. on JT in the game are so horrid...even fixing them a little bit, he's still just as bad.

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 11:36:54 AM)
Comment: @Darren: thats what roster updates are for. If JT has some good games, his rating will go up.

Posted By: Darren (26/08/2008 11:36:46 AM)
Comment: Why are we keeping Zak for? I prefer Moran Norris for any running yards as the FB. Zak can't run the ball as FB. And how come some teams don't keep 2 FBs?

Posted By: Darren (26/08/2008 11:31:20 AM)
Comment: Are you really sure on this, Matt? I keep having to add new players on the Madden 09 49er roster. you think that the Madden people would put Madden out later, sheesh! oh yeah, and for those on madden 09, don't play JT O Sullivan. He throws horrible.

Posted By: SF (26/08/2008 11:22:40 AM)
Comment: Steve Young has emerged as a dark horse McCain VP candidate. I KID YOU NOT.

Posted By: James in GB (26/08/2008 11:18:40 AM)
Comment: Matt, to pick up on Ricky's point, would you please consider devoting a future article to an analysis of the McNolan era drafting. Greetings from Reading, England (not Wisconsin)

Posted By: THA GRINCH (26/08/2008 11:11:46 AM)
Comment: Kindergarden?Over the Niners my daughter would be there at practice with me learning how to blog!Just kidding have a good day with your daughter and thanks for all the great work!Dont let Barrows see that your slacking though!lol

Response: Heck, if that bachelor Bee-rows went to the first day of school with every one of the kids he has scattered throughout this country, he'd never go to work. --Matt M.

Posted By: shootme (26/08/2008 11:11:09 AM)
Comment: Ricky - just to expand on your point... take a look at how many starters we've got that came in via free agency. That draft sure is paying dividends!

Posted By: Ricky (26/08/2008 11:06:06 AM)
Comment: So let me get this straight. Of the 35 draft picks in the Nolan/McCloughan era, 9 have already been cut (and that number should go higher once T. Clayton, J. Moore, & M. Hudson get the ax). Add to that the Niners just put their former #1 pick on the bench. And to hear Matt, Rachal and Wallace will be weekly inactives and Balmer needs to show something just to get into the rotation. So basically our entire draft this past year is Josh Morgan and of all the other picks over the past 4 years, we have a handful of decent players? Thanks for all that "building through the draft".

Posted By: Dino (26/08/2008 11:03:49 AM)
Comment: I've never been impressed with Keasey. We need a guy that can get us that tough 1 yard and I don't think Keasey has it. I guess he'll survive based on special teams play. I hope MRob develops into the short yardage back since he does have the size and fire. Tough cuts this year. I hope M. Hudson makes it. I met him at a bowling alley and he was cool to talk to. Plus his special teams play should keep him on the team.

Posted By: wsmith (26/08/2008 11:01:16 AM)
Comment: The one thing I would question is I saw TBC playing a lot in the preseason in the 4th quarter, long after R Green had played in the game...

Response: I agree with you. That is a real concern for TBC. --Matt M.

Posted By: Cyrus (26/08/2008 11:00:19 AM)
Comment: Would hate to see Hudson go-- he mixed it up a lot last year. Browns would do well to get him. I also predict this "injury" de la Puente picked up ends up IRing him... he played well against 1s and I don't think the team wants to risk losing him on waivers.

Posted By: P. in Hawaii (26/08/2008 10:46:06 AM)
Comment: Matt; Good for you, your family is always first... She will remember this her whole life! P.

Posted By: cools (26/08/2008 10:41:23 AM)
Comment: I think you have 54 listed Matt

Response: There's 53. I just had to reduce the number of linebackers. Thanks. --Matt M.

Posted By: kem99 (26/08/2008 10:28:11 AM)
Comment: Strickland almost for sure makes the team because of his versatility and the clause in his contract that creates the cap credit for next year, which may become even more important if the 49ers sever ties with Alex Smith and take the $5.3 million cap hit.

Posted By: Cleveland Mike (26/08/2008 10:27:51 AM)
Comment: Matt-I have Smith in place of Walt Harris. Like Walsh always said...cut them a year before you need to. Cold but truthful. As fas as kindergarden...go for it. Seems just yesterday I was taking my 33 year old daughter to her first day at Palo Alto elementary schhol. Enjoy!

Posted By: Times (26/08/2008 10:26:07 AM)
Comment: I'm tired of Ashley Leslie and TBC, those guys bring the team down. If both are cut, we can add either Reggie Smith/Hudson and Zeigler to the final 53.

Posted By: kem99 (26/08/2008 10:25:59 AM)
Comment: Matt -- are you predicting Reggie Smith gets cut and then claimed off waivers since you don't show him on the PS? If Clayton runs against the Chargers like he did against the Bears, might he get picked up off waivers by a team with some questions at RB?

Posted By: Pete in New Hampshire (26/08/2008 10:21:44 AM)
Comment: Matt, by all means voluteer for a day or more in kindergarden. I too am wondering if you overlooked Reggie Smith.

Posted By: Ryan (26/08/2008 10:16:56 AM)
Comment: I was wondering the same thing: "No Reggie Smith?" What gives, Mike?

Posted By: Field Goal (26/08/2008 10:16:29 AM)
Comment: Roman remains the starter at FS? What gives? Did Nolan watch Chicago's game? Thank you. PS Any news on the new uniforms or throwbacks?

Posted By: Joe (26/08/2008 10:16:23 AM)
Comment: So no chance that Ziegler makes the team? What he shown with the Niners resent history of Recievers hard to understand why they would let him go....

Posted By: Patrick in Mission Viejo (26/08/2008 10:11:19 AM)
Comment: Great work as usual. Enjoy the day with your daughter!

Posted By: Dave Daveofferson (26/08/2008 9:52:56 AM)
Comment: I'm assuming Grant or Green will go instead of Reggie Smith. Have fun in kindergarten. I'm eagerly anticipating my daughter's first day, in a couple years.

Posted By: George (26/08/2008 9:49:42 AM)
Comment: Billy Bajema is always projected as a sure thing. I've got nothing against the guy. But frankly speaking, watching him on short yardage and special teams I not seeing him as a lock to make this team.

Posted By: MC (26/08/2008 9:35:21 AM)
Comment: Add Reggie Smith, cut Strickland and I'm on board with this roster.

Posted By: Cody Pickett (26/08/2008 9:34:03 AM)
Comment: Reggie Smith, Jay Moore, & Marcus Hudson all survive the cut. Zack Keasey, Cody Wallace, Roderick Green & Larry Grant all get cut, but all are brought back later when some of the younger guys (eg, Moore, Smith) go on IR/PUP.

Posted By: shootme (26/08/2008 9:31:30 AM)
Comment: Think I just got it... less than three weeks in any given season doesn't count as a full season played. Three or more weeks counts as a full season. Sometimes I really can be an idiot... that's been bothering me for months and it finally clicks as I post. Is there still room in the kindergarten class, matt?

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 9:31:07 AM)
Comment: Oh yeah, where IS reggie smith?

Posted By: DMC (26/08/2008 9:30:48 AM)
Comment: Im in favor of cutting Tully Banta to maybe keep a guy like Marcus Hudson who does a nice job as gunner on punt team.

Posted By: shootme (26/08/2008 9:28:55 AM)
Comment: Can someone explain this portion of practice squad eligibility to me?....."--He has not served more than three previous seasons on a practice squad (this is a new rule in 2007, up from two seasons). A season consists of at least three weeks during regular season or postseason"........ What is considered a 'week'? 7days or a calendar week? Does the practice squad not practice as often as the regular team? I mean... with three weeks equating to a season, a player is only eligible for the p-squad for 9 weeks. I know I'm missing something.

Posted By: DMC (26/08/2008 9:28:23 AM)
Comment: Matt in D-Backs did you forget a guy by the name of Reggie Smith ?

Posted By: Nevyn (26/08/2008 9:27:27 AM)
Comment: Since Justin Smith is getting moved around so much, my guess is - Roderick Green, + Walter Curry. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Hudson make it over Keith Lewis. Hudson has special teams value, too (especially in punt coverage), and can backup corner or safety, and Lewis is coming off a brutal game.

Posted By: sro_pet (26/08/2008 9:23:05 AM)
Comment: Kindergarten! Try to volunteer in the class a few times. The kids love it when a father goes; it's usually the moms. Makes your kid feel special and important and it's fun.

Posted By: Jon in SoCal (26/08/2008 9:06:21 AM)
Comment: Reggie has got to be on the team, I don't think he's that bad. Lelie, Green or Klewis instead. Does an injury settlement count against the cap?

Posted By: mike in MD (26/08/2008 9:00:04 AM)
Comment: Thanks Matt & to the Press Democrat. You guys rule!! We appreciate all your hard work & feeding us fans all the Niner news we crave. Beats the days of buying the Times & pulling out the sports page every morning. Congrats to your daughter. Go Niners!

Posted By: Houston 9er (26/08/2008 8:58:57 AM)
Comment: 1st day of Kindergarten - OUTSTANDING! Hopefully, you plan to do the pick up routine as well. That look of sheer joy and excitement on the kids faces when they see you right after school is priceless. Enjoy it.

Posted By: Pedro (26/08/2008 8:48:15 AM)
Comment: How about Reggie Smith?

Posted By: Rob (26/08/2008 8:46:42 AM)
Comment: No Reggie Smith?!?! I can't believe we thorw away a 3rd rounder right away. Otherwise, I like your porjection. He might take one of the LBs spots because Justin Smith will be playing a lot of OLB.

Posted By: Allan in New Mexico (26/08/2008 8:45:42 AM)
Comment: Maybe I've missed something...Reggie Smith doesn't even make the practice squad?

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