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Chance for a rare decisive 49ers victory

Since the 2004 season, the 49ers have played 67 games. They've won 19 games during that time. But here's an amazing fact: The 49ers have won only two games by more than a touchdown.

Can you believe that? Only twice did they have enough breathing room in the closing minutes of the game to feel a little secure with a victory. (For the record, both of those games were in 2006: against the Raiders, 34-20, and at Seattle, 24-14.)

This is one opponent the 49ers should be able to handle without sweating it out to the end. The Lions are not good. They fell behind 21-0 to the Falcons and Packers. Sure, they rallied in those games, but they have been outscored 82-46.

The 49ers need this victory. They need to put the Lions away early. Because after this, things get a lot more difficult.

The team's next six games are: at New Orleans, vs. New England, vs. Philadephia, at N.Y. Giants, vs. a presumably more healthy Seattle team, and then at Arizona.

If the 49ers don't completely cough this one away, it should be a victory -- an easy victory.

* * *

Here are the matchups to watch in this game:

Niners CBs vs. Lions WRs: This one just isn't Nate Clements and Walt Harris vs. Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, though that's a big part of it. Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey are also threats, and the 49ers will be without their No. 3 cornerback, Shawntae Spencer. That means Donald Strickland, coming off a knee injury, will play a huge role (assuming he's fit enough to play). Second-year player Tarell Brown might also see some important action when the Lions go with four wideouts.

DE Parys Haralson vs. RT George Foster: See that above matchup? Things will be a lot simpler if the 49ers are able to apply some heat to QB Jon Kitna. Haralson is probably the 49ers' best pass-rusher. He'll be on the field on third downs. He had two sacks in the opener, and was held in check last week. Foster is not a great pass protector. He was blamed for 11.75 sacks last season, and he's already been tagged with 2.5 sacks this year. Haralson needs to use his speed to get past Foster.

DE/OLB Justin Smith vs. LT Jeff Backus: And the same goes on this side. On first and second downs, Smith will generally be lined up on the right side against Backus. Frankly, Backus was not very good in pass protection last season, averaging nearly a sack yielded per game. He has struggled again this season. Smith can't just save his pass-rush contributions for third downs when he moves to defensive tackle. He has to take advantage of Backus' shortcomings on early downs, too.

NT Aubrayo Franklin vs. C Dominic Raiola: Franklin can do a lot better job of holding the point. He's up against a 295-pound eighth-year player. If Raiola can handle Franklin by himself, that's going to leave one of the Lions' guards available to venture downfield and make blocks on Takeo Spikes or Jeff Ulbrich. This is one matchup to watch throughout this game.

LB Patrick Willis vs. RB Kevin Smith: Willis' tackle numbers are down from a year ago, but that's understandable. The 49ers need him to make more big plays, such as the interception return for a touchdown against the Seahawks. Smith, a rookie from Central Florida, has not taken many big hits, yet. He's carried just 26 times for 88 yards. Willis has to make sure that those numbers remain low. The Lions are going to want to get some yards from Smith, as the 49ers' run defense has been a weak spot in the team's defense.

Pass protection vs. the Lions defensive front: The 49ers struggled with crowd noise and a very aggressive Seahawks front-seven last week. This is a game in which they should be able to keep QB J.T. O'Sullivan clean. It starts with LT Joe Staley vs. RDE Dewayne White, who has recorded the Lions' only two sacks this season. DT Cory Redding is questionable with an ankle injury. If he does not play, that'll be a piece of good news for RG Tony Wragge. The 49ers need to be able to keep the pocket clean for O'Sullivan, and they'll face a lot more difficult tests down the road. No excuses for hits on the QB this week.

FB Zak Keasey vs. LB Ernie Sims: Keasey has done a pretty good job as a blocker in front of Frank Gore. His play will be a key in this one, as he figures to have the chance to meet up with Sims in the hole a few times. Sims is the Lions' leading tackler and is probably their best defensive player. Keasey is generally on the field for about half of the team's offensive snaps, and a large portion of the team's run plays.

* * *

From today's Press Democrat, the 49ers are not expecting good news about CB Shawntae Spencer's knee.

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Posted September 20, 2008 2:28:51 PM
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Comments | Add Comment

Posted By: ninermaniac (21/09/2008 11:51:36 AM)
Comment: YEEEAAAAHHHH!!!!

Posted By: StonerLab (21/09/2008 9:53:14 AM)
Comment: I have to agree with mt, I don't see how you can say that this game against the Lions is a "slam dunk" the 49ers D hasn't proved anything yet nor have they given me any indication that they can get off the field the last 2 seasons. Matt, I too would be very interested to see the stat of how many drives the 49ers opponents had 3 & outs. I'm sure that stat isn't pretty.

Posted By: GilroyAl (21/09/2008 8:35:31 AM)
Comment: Here's hoping for that kind of game, Matt. I'm just not going count on it because Nolan has had 4 years to build a good defense( supposedly his area of expertise) and I haven't seen them start dominating on third down. You have to be able to make the other team punt consistantly to be considered a good defense or create turnovers. Not a niner strong point. We can't blame Manusky for last week's weak defense if they used it against Seattle two years ago. Nolan's call. I hope I'm wrong but I see Detroit's time of possession increase a lot because they're able to run the ball this week. The offense will have to win this game too.

Posted By: KezarMike (21/09/2008 7:59:08 AM)
Comment: There are many factors that add up to an NFL victory (offensive line, secondary play,etc) but probably the two most key factors are QB play and pass rush, two things the 49ers have been woeful at for many years. JTO's play so far promises an upgrade in QB play, but without a pass rush, the game today may be a long one (not to mention the season), so...let's see what Manusky and Nolan come up with here (if we indeed have the atheletes).

Posted By: Graham (21/09/2008 2:48:19 AM)
Comment: I don't know that our secondary is hurting. We loaded up on defensive backs, so our depth should help absorb the loss of Spencer. I think a decisive victory is a reasonable expectation here, and if we fall short of that, gotta ask some tough questions. Anything less than a decisive victory does not make me like our chances against our tougher opponents coming up.

Posted By: mt (20/09/2008 10:46:09 PM)
Comment: I, too, am a bit pessimistic about the Niners' chances on Sunday. It seems that everyone has this impression that last year the defense was good and it was the offense that looked terrible. I think they were both pretty awful. The defense was on the field too much, not because the offense kept going three-and-out, but because the 49er defense couldn't make the other team go three-and-out often enough. Last year they couldn't get off the field and this year they seem to have the same problem. Matt, do you have access to (or could you point me to) any stats that would tell us how many times the defense got three-and-outs last year and this year? Or how many plays (average or median) they gave up in drives? Thanks.

Posted By: neeraj sharma (20/09/2008 10:29:58 PM)
Comment: This is a trap game for the niners. The defense has done very little against big talented receivers in the past. If Nolan tries to get cute instead of just going blitz crazy, the niners will lose. With this plan the danger is the big play. So what!, at least it won't be a 16 play 10 minute buzz killing drive. If the Lions score, so can the niners. If they force turnovers and sacks from the likes of Smith, Green, Harlyson and Lawson which could turn into instant defensive points, the niners can win this game Steeleman

Posted By: Razoreater (20/09/2008 10:12:08 PM)
Comment: Don't be surprised to see Haralson matched up against Cherilus instead of Foster.

Posted By: SFJay (20/09/2008 10:00:20 PM)
Comment: We barely beat a very mediocre SEA team (due to injury) last week. I think saying DET is a team we should handle easily is a bit over the top. We have not done anything to start acting like any victory should be a slam dunk. This game will be far closer than you think. I think we are making improvements but we still have a long ways to go before we can start talking about easy victories.

Posted By: A.E.S. (20/09/2008 9:44:57 PM)
Comment: defensive pass-rush is unleased and the offense puts up big numbers. look for f-gore to have huge chunks running and receiving. v.d. will redeem himself after last weeks off game and rookie j-morgan will have his first of many big games = win! matt, i agree that this is a must win because of the upcoming schedule. the next six games will make or break our team. i still see some big surprises along the way, so bring it on!

Posted By: Razoreater (20/09/2008 9:15:36 PM)
Comment: Obviously Joe Barry vs. Mike Martz but Travis Fisher vs. Iasac Bruce since both provide a history and familiarity.

Posted By: John A in HB California (20/09/2008 7:28:59 PM)
Comment: Matt! Why did you have to say that!? Now, watch, the Lions ROLL to their first victory!! Man...but come to think of it, nothing is easy with nolan any way....

Posted By: Rich, San Ramon (20/09/2008 7:25:44 PM)
Comment: A 1 point victory is a decisive enough victory for me.

Posted By: LodiGrapePicker (20/09/2008 7:24:38 PM)
Comment: Not to be a pessimist, but I will be shocked if the Niners put this one away early. Maybe I feel that way based on the prior game stats you posted above, but I bet Kitna shines tomorrow against Nolan's defense.

Posted By: shaneO (20/09/2008 6:25:48 PM)
Comment: everyone is saying this has blow out written all over it, and i want to agree, i feel like it should but Matt any concern that the lions get more agressive this week and go 4 wide early to try and burn our hurting secondary?

Posted By: Andrew G (20/09/2008 6:22:13 PM)
Comment: Since 2005, not even the Texans have failed to beat an opponent by more than 2 touchdowns, yet the 49ers have never done so. That is really unbelievable, especially considering the Texans were worse than the 49ers in 2005 (though, admittedly, not by much).

Posted By: Embarrassed (20/09/2008 6:11:05 PM)
Comment: It shouldn't be a surprise that we've only won 2 of our meager 19 victories since '04 by a touchdown or more... we're talking Nolan here... the lead apostle of the Billick-Ball "keep it close and screw 'em at the end" mentality. That jerk has to go, no matter what!!!!!!

Matt has MOVED! Check out the NEW 49ers blog at pressdemocrat.com/49ers

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