Posted By: Aiiyiiyiii (15/01/2007 6:26:42 PM)
Comment: Hey Matt, thanks for the stats. Hope I'm not too late to ask this: so Michael Robinson got in on 12% of the offensive snaps? More than I woulda thought. I have a couple of questions on him. 1, do you think he will be much improved as a RB in 2007? and 2, would trying him out at S be a stoopid idea? Is he too slow? Love reading your stuff.

Posted By: six_parnassus (07/01/2007 2:44:41 PM)
Comment: Ugh. Me dumb. Watching Eagles-Giants. Donte Stallworth, PHI not PIT, as alluded to in my post below. Wrong Stallworth, wrong team, wrong era. Sorry. || Re Bryant: That's why Matt's inclusion of comparative passer-ratings for other 49er receivers is so "helpful." That's why comparing catch-rates of other big-play deep-ball receivers is so "suggestive." For example, it suggests drops are only part of the picture. The big-play deep-ball WRs cited earlier/below all have catch% (> 50%) rates substantively higher than divas like Bryant or Bennett etc. Why? Do they "drop" less balls? No. Bryant's drop total, for example, is relatively low. Other factors? Route-running (as in misrun, overrun, underrun routes -- a common problem w/Bryant); lack of awareness and imprecision (not fighting off DBs with inside position on tightly thrown balls; not cutting precisely, not curling far or fast enough on hooks, comeback routes); contact averse (Bryant may not mind hitting, i.e., blocking downfield; but Bryant does mind getting hit, i.e., pulling up, flinching, short-arming or running half-speed on crossing routes over the middle -- unlike Battle).

Posted By: Bruce (07/01/2007 9:28:59 AM)
Comment: Matt- Great work on the offensive stats. How do you interpret the number of passes to Bryant that were intercepted and also the completion percentage on balls thrown to him? Many folks seem to be down on Bryant, but I don't recall him dropping many catchable balls. I wonder whether Alex Smith was forcing the ball to Bryant when he was drawing double coverage a lot of the time. Is this a receiver problem, a QB problem, or both?

Posted By: wsmith (06/01/2007 9:12:56 PM)
Comment: Matt - I agree Mike Zimmer may be an option. I'm not sure how serious of an option - I'm fairly certain he only has 2 yrs. of experience in the 3-4, and I may be wrong in assuming this, but I tend to think Nolan will target an experienced 3-4 guy. Capers is a good bet with all of 3-4 experience he has, along with 2 stints as the head honcho (ala Norv Turner). That's my guess, but I could be way off.

Posted By: Zubin (06/01/2007 4:01:36 PM)
Comment: hi matt, i just read something about how they might introduce a bill to not allow 49ers to build outside san franciso. Do you think it will work, niners need a stadium and santa clara seeems the best option as of now. what are the chances of SB 49 being passed? and what are you opinions if you think it will block/not block the niners? and can niners fight it?

Response: If that bill passes, it could be disastrous for 49ers fans. It looks to me like that bill would pave the way for the 49ers to move out of the Bay Area altogether. It certainly will not keep them in San Francisco to build a stadium somewhere that the club deems is not feasible. --Matt M.

Posted By: steve (06/01/2007 3:59:48 PM)
Comment: Matt--NFL Coaching question. How come bay area native Gil Haskell is never mentioned for any of the Head coaching jobs. He has been in the NFL for over 20 years, has had great success as the OC for Seattle, is definitely Mike Holmgrens right hand man, and very popular with players. He would be a great fit at any of these openings

Response: I can't say I know the answer to that question. The only thing I can think of is that Haskell has always been the coordinator for a coach who is generally thought of as the person running the show offensively. --Matt M.

Posted By: wsmith (06/01/2007 12:12:29 PM)
Comment: Time to put the votes out there for who we want as D-Coord: 1. Rob Ryan 2. Dave McGinnis 3. Jim Bates 4. Dom Capers 5. Ed Donatell This is under the assumption they are all available. I hope Nolan finds his guy soon, before the HC vacancies are filled and staffs are hired. We have the advantage of getting the best guy available right now.

Response: Also, keep an eye on Mike Zimmer, now that the Cowboys are out of the playoffs and Bill Parcells' future is in the air. --Matt M.

Posted By: Jon (06/01/2007 11:58:15 AM)
Comment: Matt - thanks for the year of great info. Don't take this the wrong way, I was just curious - is this just a job for you, or are you a true niners fan?

Response: It's a job, of course, but I enjoy it. I grew up a fan of the 49ers, but I stopped being a fan once I started covering the team. Distancing myself emotionally is the only way I know to provide fair, accurate and unbiased reporting. --Matt M.

Posted By: six_parnassus (06/01/2007 11:52:15 AM)
Comment: Great stuff re "intended targets" and catch-rate efficiency. Relatedly, some preliminary due diligence on F/A WRs. First, (our) minimum criteria: 30 or younger; minimum 40 rcpts 2006; catch-rate% of 50%> passes targeted; minimum 1/TD rcpt; minimal direction bias-*must* catch over the *middle* (R-M-L); must rank conference top-20 in 1st down conversions, YAC or redzone receptions. || Big "names" not included and why: Drew Bennett-we like his size, 3rd-down production and YAC but Bennett had one of the heaviest directional biases among top WRs we checked (15-2-4), i.e., few catches over the middle, heavy bias toward the left; while Bennett's catch-rate of 47% was also unimpressive, e.g., typical of big-play, high-cost divas (cf. Antonio Bryant) who don't like contact or fight for balls. Whereas compare the following big-play (YPC/YAC) league leaders who also catch a high% of passes targeted "regardless" of reputed or reported QB accuracy: Terry Glenn(64%), Marvin Harrison(64%), Marques Colston(61%), Lee Evans(60%), Isaac Bruce(59%), Santonio Holmes(57%), Javon Walker(55%), Anquan Boldin(55%). Also not included though presumably available -- Troy Brown, who at 35 going on 36 finally seemed to slow down in 2006 despite still-good reliability at 57% caught. Likewise Troy Walters, still youngish at 30 but also still small, injury prone and mostly a return guy, never a go-to receiver.|| Otherwise, the biggest name WR conceivably within snagging range (if the 49ers are interested) could be Donte Stallworth due to the emergence of Nate Washington -- a F/A nobody out of nowhere (Tiffin college) 5 yrs younger than Stallworth, more athletic & just as productive. || Lesser names but no less productive who meet our original criteria for productivity, reliability and perceived toughness (proven willingness to catch over the middle): Mike Furrey 6-0 205, 30; 98/rcpts, 67% (caught), 11.1/ypc, 6/TDs, 16-14-17 (R-M-L); 7th/NFC, 20th/NFL - 1st down conversions on 3rd down, 14th/NFC 1st down conversions on 3rd down > 7/yds || Wes Welker 5-9 185, 26*; 67/rcpts, 67%, 10.3/ypc, 1/TD, 10-11-13; 16th/AFC-Redzone receptions; 13th/AFC-1st down conversions on 3rd down; || Kevin Curtis 5-11 186, 29; 40/rcpts, 70%, 12/ypc, 4/TDs, 8-4-6; 6th/NFL, 3rd/NFC-Redzone receptions; 20th/NFC-1st down conversions on 3rd down. || Of course, the other presumable advantage with (somewhat) lesser names is lesser, more reasonable offers so long as teams, i.e., the Niners, don't overpay (we realize our "shortlist" includes "shorter" players; but good shorties could also improve SF's return output)|| Note: all receiver stats, rankings derived from STATs.com [http://shsdemo.stats.com/fb/findplayer.asp?type=position&position=1].

Posted By: Mike (06/01/2007 10:41:17 AM)
Comment: Clearly the D needs help. The numbers don't lie. And I'm not going to get into speculating on exactly "who" the Niners should draft or add in FA. But with that as background, I will ask you to comment on these two questions: If the 49ers didn't have a running game this year (i.e., sans Gore), instead of 7-9, where do you think they would've finished?; and 2) as good as Gore is -- and as much as the D needs re-stocking -- how likely is it SF will surprise fans by drafting both an OT and RB in the first four to five picks to ensure what got them to 7-9 is there for them again (at a minimum) in 2007?

Posted By: doug (06/01/2007 12:56:57 AM)
Comment: 49ers should cut loose antonio bryant, his actions not his words or promises indicate a selfish player. He is not a team player based on those revealing stats: 10 ints (maybe he could have knocked some down or prevented some) high total of penalities for a wide receiver, especially has one UC, could have used his spot to get a better receiver

Posted By: gyred (05/01/2007 10:59:45 PM)
Comment: Matt -- Since the coaching staff is now undergoing some changes, can you tell us what coaching positions are most critical to the 49ers given who they are at this point in time, and what they're trying to accomplish? There's Nolan, Norv, and the new DC on top, and Mike S. in the mix, but below them what are the most critical coaching positions for this team?

Posted By: Carl (05/01/2007 4:23:16 PM)
Comment: Wow, 10 of Alex Smiths INT's went to Bryant. Thanks for taking the time to track and post these stats! Go Niners!

Posted By: British9er (05/01/2007 3:44:56 PM)
Comment: I am so pleased that the 49ers are to coach the Senior Bowl again - I think this is a fantastic advantage to the team for getting an inside track on the seniors in the draft. Any idea when the D co-ordinator will be in place and if not before Jan 27th who would then step up to coach the defence on behalf of the 49ers at the Senior Bowl?

Response: I'm sure the 49ers will have their new coordinator in place before Jan. 27. I think Mike Nolan will start to get to work on that over the weekend and early next week. They will probably have a d-line coach hired before they get their d-coordinator, though. --Matt M.

Posted By: Daniel (05/01/2007 3:34:25 PM)
Comment: Kem99, they recor nfl total access in LA.

Posted By: kem99 (05/01/2007 3:18:14 PM)
Comment: Matt, Mike Nolan was a guest host last night on NFL Total Access. Do you know where they broadcast Total Access from? Just wondering if he might have been traveling for another reason (i.e. interviewing coaches) while appearing on the show.

Response: He flew down to L.A. yesterday for the show. He is back in Santa Clara today. --Matt M.

Posted By: gyred (05/01/2007 3:09:39 PM)
Comment: Matt, Great set of stats. How many assistants/interns/gophers do you have to track and log this stuff?

Response: I wish -- then I might get to bed before 1 a.m. after a Sunday day game. --Matt M.

Posted By: Rich, San Ramon (05/01/2007 2:30:21 PM)
Comment: Wow, suddenly the NFL gods are looking out for us. Matt, would you read this to mean that in Tampa Bay, Washington, and Minnesota, the head coach and his staff have so little input on player selection that they figure it isn't worth the trouble?

Response: The Bucs are going to coach the North. The Redskins don't believe in the draft, so there's no reason for them to go. I'm not sure why the Vikings wouldn't go -- perhaps some teams think it's too much work. --Matt M.

Posted By: Dexter Carmichael (05/01/2007 2:06:14 PM)
Comment: Right on Matt! Again you give us Niner Fanatics all the Niner news early and often. Keep up the great work. Niners!