Stanford tight end Coby Fleener will not run this week because he has a high ankle sprain, so we won’t know how fast he is until he runs at Stanford’s Pro Day on March 22. If he runs a 4.5 40-yard dash, he would be a good pick for the Niners with the 30^th overall pick.

But that’s an issue for next month. For now, as we wait for combine action, let’s discuss Mike Wallace.

The 25-year old receiver is a restricted free agent of the Steelers, and they don’t have the cap space to resign him or franchise tag him. They’re probably going to lose him in free agency, but whoever signs Wallace will most likely have to give their first round draft pick to the Steelers. That’s how restricted free agency works.

Should the Niners try to sign Wallace, knowing he’ll demand a lot of money and cost the team a first round pick? I say, yes, and here’s why.

The Niners need a playmaker at wide receiver who is also a deep threat. That’s Wallace. He’s a Pro-Bowler. He’s the fastest player in the league according to Jim Harbaugh. He caught 24 TD passes in his first three seasons despite standing just six-feet tall. He averages 18.7 yards per reception. He’s better than any receiver the Niners could draft at the 30^th overall pick.

The only way the Niners would really need that first round pick is if they couldn’t sign OLB Ahmad Brooks, because they don’t have a replacement for him on the roster.

If they do resign Brooks, they should also sign Wallace, as in, make him the No. 1 priority. For example, it would be smarter to sign Wallace to a big, long-term contract than Carlos Rogers, who’s 31-years-old and plays cornerback, a position at which the Niners feel strong.

Keeping Brooks and getting Wallace and losing Rogers and a first round pick is a great trade for the Niners.

Here’s the question: Could Alex Smith, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman use Wallace effectively? I say, yes, again. They like to call a few deep-shot plays every game. I’m sure they wish they could draw those plays up for Mike Wallace instead of Delanie Walker.

When Smith throws those deep passes, often he looks as if he’s throwing the ball as far as he can. He doesn’t want to throw an interception, so he out-throws the coverage and counts on the receiver to catch up. Kyle Williams couldn’t catch up to Smith’s bomb in the NFC championship game, but it’s pretty hard to overthrow Wallace, who’s about as fast as DeSean Jackson.

Wallace and the Niners are a match that makes sense.

Now, I want to get back in the 49er loop. Could you fill me in? Usually I fill you in, but I didn’t keep up with the news while I was down Mexico-way. My dad bought a USA Today one day but it was two days old and it didn’t report anything Niner-related.

I know the combine starts tomorrow, and I will cover that closely for you from the Cohn Zohn. But could you catch me up on the last week? Tell me what happened, major or minor, and your interpretation of what it means.

Thanks, I owe you one.

Here are his top-five strengths and weakness.

Strengths

5. Following directions. Smith does everything the coaches ask him to do. He stays at the practice facility late on weekdays game-planning with the coaches. He led mini camps and taught Jim Harbaugh’s playbook to the offense during the lockout when he wasn’t under contract. During games, he executes exactly what the coaches tell him. Harbaugh explains the reads to Smith in his headset until there are 15 seconds left on the play clock and communication stops. Look at this guy, and if he’s not open do this. And Smith does it. At Utah, Smith ran Urban Meyer’s offense as well as anyone ever has, throwing 32 TDs and just 4 INTs as a 20-year-old junior. As a 22-year old 49er, he threw 16 touchdowns and won 7 games for offensive coordinator Norv Turner. And just this past season, he sometimes looked like Andrew Luck running Harbaugh’s offense, throwing 17 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions.

4. Mobility. For a tall, drop-back pocket quarterback, he can run. Since his arm is somewhere between a B+ and an A-, he’s best when he rolls out of the pocket. In the red zone, he’s a threat to run for a touchdown when he rolls out – he scored the offense’s first touchdown of the year that way. He’s quick enough to run the option and designed quarterback sweeps. He ran about three times a game this season. He should run more in the future.

3. Toughness. He’s physically tough: he can take a shot and not fumble the ball. He can take a crushing shot and pop right up and jog to the huddle. He’s cranially tough: He played half of the Cowboys game with a slight concussion. And he’s mentally tough: He didn’t leave the 49ers in free agency for a “fresh start” and a “change of scenery,” like his family and most people thought he should have done. He came back to San Francisco, the same city that booed him off the field in 2010, and won 14 games and became a hero. That’s extraordinary toughness.

2. Prudence. He hangs on to the ball tightly with two hands in the pocket. He doesn’t throw risky passes that could be intercepted. In his entire college career at the University of Utah he threw eight picks in 587 pass attempts. At his best, he’s the king of not turning the ball over, but for most of his NFL career he turned it over a lot, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. This past season, Harbaugh helped Smith rediscover his prudent, efficient nature as a quarterback.

1. Fourth-quarter comebacks. As much as prudence worked for Smith in ’11, he played his best when he was losing late in games and he had to throw the freaking ball to win. No thinking, just throwing. Everything people said he couldn’t do physically – throw accurate deep passes, make stick throws into tight windows in the end zone – he did to win games. There was the perfect throw deep down the sideline to Michael Crabtree in Seattle. And of course, there was the game-winning touchdown throw to Vernon Davis in the playoffs to beat the Saints. He can become an elite quarterback if he makes those throws more often and more consistently in the future.

Weaknesses

5. Improvising. He always seems to look for one option downfield, and if that receiver isn’t open he immediately throws to a check-down receiver for modest gains. When he scrambles, he usually throws the ball away. His best improvisational move is to take off and run. He is not wired like Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger, who scramble around behind the line of scrimmage and wait for receivers to get open outside of their routes. Smith has the athleticism to do that, but he isn’t comfortable with chaos like those other QBs are. It’s not in his nature to improvise.

4. Sacks. Smith has played a full 16-game season twice – in 2006 and in 2011. The main difference in Smith’s stats between those two years is he threw 11 fewer picks in 2011, but he took nine more sacks. It seemed all year that Smith made the conscious choice to take the sack rather than force the pass into coverage. But sacks are bad, too. The offense loses yardage and the down. It’s rare to score a touchdown in the same drive in which you take a sack. Throwing an interception isn’t always bad – it can function as a long punt. Smith needs to figure out a way to take fewer than 40 sacks in 2012, and that may mean throwing a few more interceptions.

3. Field vision. The first play of the Harbowl encapsulates this issue for Smith. His primary read was Vernon Davis in the flat. He was open. But, so was Delanie Walker sprinting deep down the middle of the field uncovered. Smith didn’t see Walker because he wasn’t looking at the middle of the field – he was focused on his primary read down in the right flat. He completed the pass to Davis for a three-yard gain instead of to Walker for a touchdown. In Smith’s mind, he was throwing to Davis all the way unless he wasn’t open. The best quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees) don’t think that way. They look at the field and quickly identify how to make the most out of each play.

2. Third down. You can almost read his thoughts as he lines up in shotgun on third down and long – I will not throw an interception on this play. He usually doesn’t even throw passes that cross the first-down marker. He checks down to Gore or Davis or Crabtree and asks them to break tackles. Or he throws the ball away or he takes the sack. Eli Manning can look left, right, then left again, manipulate the safeties, create a little window and throw a 20-yard rope on third and long. He does this routinely. Smith will never do this. He doesn’t have the arm-strength or the temperament. For the Niners offense to improve on third down they have to get better receivers and Greg Roman needs to call better plays, and Smith needs to be more adventurous.

1. Passivity. He’s the most passive good quarterback in the NFL. He’s only aggressive when he’s losing and he has no other choice. He couldn’t be passive against the Saints – Drew Brees kept throwing touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Smith had to keep bringing the Nines back, and as a result he made the best throws of his life. Against the Giants in the NFC championship game, he hardly trailed in the fourth quarter, so he wasn’t forced to not be passive, so he took sack after sack and the offense punted and punted and punted. He’s good when he’s aggressive. He needs to be that more often, not just when the game gives him no other choice. His passivity lets opponents hang around, and then Kyle Williams happens. Smith will never be elite as long as he’s passive. He needs to be the aggressively prudent quarterback all the time.

I’m leaving for Mexico tomorrow. Back at you in a week.

And by the way, what’s up with Alex Smith caddying for Harbaugh? Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo played, but Smith caddied? He wore a green apron/bib and carried Harbaugh’s clubs. Is that a good look? I don’t think Joe Montana or Steve Young would have done that for anyone.

Anyway, that’s neither here nor there. To read my dad’s column, click here.

On Friday, the 49ers extended his contract through the 2016 season, this coming a few weeks after he won the NFL’s Executive of the Year award.

Almost every move he made in 2011 worked out. It was like he was on a heater at a craps table in Vegas and he was hitting ten the hard way over and over again.

Here are the top-five things he did that made his past 12 months such a monster.

5. Let Takeo Spikes walk. Spikes was a free agent and the leader of the defense. He figured to be one of the first players Baalke resigned. But the Chargers offered him a three-year contract worth just $9 million, and Baalke didn’t match it, surprisingly. Instead, he turned the inside linebacker job over to his third round pick from 2010, NaVorro Bowman, who had started one game in his brief NFL career and was set to earn $490,000 in 2011. Bowman ended up the seventh-leading tackler in the league and an All-Pro.

4. Let Aubrayo Franklin walk. For four years he was the Niners’ nose tackle – an essential position on their 3-4 defense. Like Spikes, he seemed to be a player Baalke just had to re-sign. But he didn’t. Instead, he gave Ray McDonald a five-year $20 million contract extension and let Franklin sign with the Saints for one year, $4 million. McDonald had only started nine games in his four-year career. Letting Franklin walk shook up the whole line. It moved Isaac Sopoaga to nose tackle (he had been playing end), and it made McDonald a starter. Some wondered if the Niners D-line would be as good as it was in the past, Well, they were better against the run, and they got a better pass rush, too – McDonald had 8 sacks in the regular season and playoffs combined.

3. Let Dashon Goldson try to walk. Baalke offered him a five-year deal and he turned it down, thinking he could get more. He couldn’t. No one wanted him. So he came back to Baalke and signed a one-year, $1 million contract, and then he had his best season as pro, intercepting six passes and earning a trip to the Pro Bowl. Whenever Goldson didn’t play, the Niners pass defense looked poor. Backup free safety Madieu Williams was too slow to cover ground, and Reggie Smith took poor angles to passes. Goldson brought the pass defense together with his size and speed, and he was Baalke’s second-biggest bargain behind Bowman.

2. Sign Carlos Rogers. Baalke cut Nate Clements before the season started to save money, so he needed a new No. 1 cornerback. Nnamdi Asomugha was the obvious choice, but the Eagles signed him to a five-year, $60 million contract. Johnathan Joseph was a good Plan B, but the Texans signed him to a five-year, $48.75 million contract. Baalke needed to find a corner all the other GMs were overlooking. He found Carlos Rogers. He gave him a one-year, $4.25 million contract, and then Rogers had a better season than both Asomugha and Joseph. Rogers caught six interceptions and made the Pro-Bowl.  On first and second down, he covered the opponent’s No. 1 receiver and on third down he covered the slot guy. He did both very well, which is rare. He was the perfect cornerback signing in 2011.

1. Draft Aldon Smith. This pick made some fans irate. It was a reach, they said. The 49ers could have traded back and gotten him. They should have drafted the cornerback from Nebraska, Prince Amukamara.

Aldon Smith was a project, these fans explained. He was a defensive end in college. Baalke was drafting him to play 3-4 outside linebacker. With no offseason, there was no chance Smith could contribute in 2011, and so he was a waste of a pick.

But, then he almost broke the rookie record for sacks, finishing with 16 including the playoffs. He didn’t even play that much – just in Nickel and Dime formations as a pass rusher. That was all the Niners needed from him his rookie year. He gave them the pass rush that transformed their defense from good to great, and he will rival Patrick Willis as the team’s MVP for years to come.

Honorable mention: Signing David Akers. He broke the NFL record for most field goals in a season (44), and he also broke the 49ers record for most points in a season (166). Baalke signed him to a three-year, $9 million contract before the season, the same contract the Chargers gave Spikes. Once again, Baalke spent his money wisely.

So, our conversation will continue without interruption except for a few days next week when I’ll be in Mexico. Some of the big things coming up are the scouting combine, free agency, the NFL draft, mini camps, OTAs, etc. The calendar is full.

I want to thank everybody for helping to create such a wonderful community, and to the PD for believing in me and you.

The Niners have roughly $33.8 million in cap space. They’re most likely going to franchise tag Dashon Goldson, so $6.2 of that would go to him. Another $7 or $8 million will go to Alex Smith, probably.

Then there are the guys who will probably come back on cheap contracts – Joshua Morgan, Adam Snyder, C.J. Spillman, Blake Costanzo, Tavares Gooden. Then there are the draft picks and the practice squad guys who the Niners have to sign.

After all that, the Niners will probably have around $13 million in cap space. That might not be enough to bring back both Rogers and Brooks.

Rogers is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL because he can cover a team’s No.1 receiver or their slot receiver. He said he’d resign with the Niners for slightly below market value, but he still wants a four or five year contract. He’ll be 31 next season, the same season the Niners think Chris Culliver will be ready to start. Tarell Brown is under contract for one more season, and he’s a starter, too. Plus, the Niners really like Tramaine Brock.

So, they’re not desperate for Rogers. They may be better served spending money on someone else.

What about Brooks?

Brooks played almost all the downs for the Niners elite defense last season. He can “set the edge” in the run game, rush the passer (seven sacks) and even drop back in coverage. He’s a complete 3-4 outside linebacker who can play all three downs. Players like Brooks are rare and valuable. The Niners won’t be able to resign him cheaply. Could they afford to lose him?

Here’s why they could: Aldon Smith will most likely be a three-down player next season at right outside linebacker. This season, Parys Haralson played first and second down at that spot and Aldon Smith came in for him on third down. The Niners didn’t draft Smith with the No. 7 overall pick to be a situational pass rusher for his whole career. They were breaking him in slowly in 2011, but in 2012 he’ll probably play almost every single defensive snap.

So, the Niners could move Haralson over to left outside linebacker, Ahmad Brooks’ spot, and draft a situational pass rusher to play third downs and compliment Haralson like Smith did in ‘11. Some prospects who fit that description are Whitney Mercilus, Andre Branch, Cam Johnson and Vinny Curry.

Or, DeMarcus Dobbs could be the situational pass rusher who splits time with Haralson. The point is, the Niners have options if Brooks wants more money than they’re willing to give him.

If they let Rogers and Brooks walk in free agency, they’ll have the cap space to make a competitive contract offer to one of the top wide receivers on the market, like Vincent Jackson or Dwayne Bowe or Marques Colston or Stevie Johnson or DeSean Jackson.

Or, they could sign a younger replacement for Rogers, like Brandon Carr or Richard Marhsall or Terrell Thomas.

Or, they could sign an older pass rusher, like Robert Mathis.

Or, they could put all this aside and go after the best, most expensive free agent: DE/OLB Mario Williams, who would make the Niners’ already great defense the best defense of all time.

If I were Trent Baalke, I’d have a long talk with Mario Williams and his agent before I signed or resigned anyone.

What would you do?

Here’s why:

There are many more deserving former players who need to be inducted first. Like Tim Brown and Cris Carter. And Charles Haley, who won five Super Bowls. None of those players were inducted this season. If they didn’t get in, DeBartolo had no chance.

Bill Parcells – a former Super Bowl winning coach who is also on the Hall of Fame bubble – should also get in before DeBartolo.

The Hall of Fame should honor players first, coaches second, owners last. That’s what’s fair. Debartolo never blocked or tackled or game planned or called plays or scouted players or made trades. No, he hired Bill Walsh and got out of the way.

The MGM Grand is wrong. The Niners should be the preseason favorites to win the 2013 Super Bowl. They were the best team in the NFL last season and they will be even better this upcoming one.

Here’s a list of core 49ers who should be a little to a lot better next season:

Patrick Willis, Vernon Davis, Alex Smith, Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman, Ray McDonald, Chris Culliver, Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, Anthony Davis, Kendall Hunter and Colin Kaepernick.

Justin Smith and Frank Gore may not be better next season, but they’re warriors and they’ll still be key contributors. Despite being 32, Smith got stronger as the 2011 season went on, and although Gore wore down towards the end of 2011, he’s still younger than 30.

A lot could happen in free agency and the draft, but right now it looks like the Niners will be the most complete, most talented team in the NFL in 2012. Their defense should be even better, their passing attack should be much better and their run game should remain strong. No other team is that well rounded.

Not the Ravens – they’re getting old. Ray Lewis is 37 and slowing down. Ricky Williams just retired this morning. They’re going to take a step back.

Not the Giants, either. They’re a pass rush, a wide-receiving corps and a hall of fame quarterback, not a complete team like the 49ers.

Clearly, Vegas doubts Alex Smith’s (and Jim Harbaugh’s) ability to win the big one.

That seems unfair – Smith led nearly as many comeback drives in 2011 as Eli Manning did. He was pretty much lights out when he needed to bring the Niners from behind to win in the fourth quarter. It was when he had leads late that his production would plummet and he’d let opponents come back, like in the NFC championship game.

Smith should be able to improve on extending second-half leads. That seems like a natural progression for him, especially if he gets two new wide receivers in the offseason.

But, there’s the issue with the 49ers schedule – it’s one of the hardest in the league. They have to play the Giants, Packers, Patriots, Saints and Jets, to name a few. They probably won’t go 13-3 again, or get the two seed, or have a Bye.

But why is that a bad thing? Home-field advantage didn’t work out for the Niners or the Packers this postseason. And the Giants didn’t have home field after the wild card weekend.

The hard schedule is really a good thing. Next season, the Niners will be much more battle-tested by January (yes, I’m assuming they win the NFC West). This season, they only played a few playoff-type games, and as a result they looked green and inexperienced in the NFC championship (not the defense, but the offense and special teams). They shouldn’t look that way next year. They should look more like the Giants, who tore through the playoffs after a brutal regular season in which they lost seven games.

Here’s the MGM Grand’s order for the 2013 Super Bowl favorites:

Patriots: 5-1.

Packers: 11-2.

Steelers  6-1.

Eagles 6-1.

Giants 8-1.

Saints 10-1.

Niners 10-1.

Chargers 12-1.

Texans 12-1.

That seems like a preposterous order to me. Here’s how I would rank the Super Bowl favorites today:

1. Niners

2. Giants

3. Packers

4. Saints

5. Patriots

6. Texans

7. Ravens

8. Steelers

Disrespect update: Sportsbook.com gives the 49ers 20/1 odds to win the 2013 Super Bowl, same as the Cowboys, Jets, Falcons and Lions. If you want to bet today on the 49ers to win next year’s Super Bowl, this is the place to do it.