We don’t know if the offense will be better this year, but let’s assume it is indeed better. How will it be better?

Here are five ways.

1. The Niners got fast receivers who can beat single coverage – Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. At the end of last season if a team double covered Vernon Davis it shut down the Niners pass game. Michael Crabtree, the split end, couldn’t consistently beat the press coverage, so most defenses could shut him down with just one defensive back.  Most defenses can’t shut down Moss or Manningham with just one DB. The Giants won the Super Bowl largely because the Patriots left Manningham single covered in the fourth quarter and he burned them. The Niners offense can only benefit from having a proven playmaker like Manningham. If Moss can stay healthy, he should have a similar impact for the offense.

2. They have a running back who can catch passes – LaMichael James. Last season Frank Gore caught 17 passes and Kendall Hunter caught 16, and both dropped their fair share. Alex Smith, a man who’s partial to the checkdown, could not check down. Now, he can. On third and seven he can throw the swing pass to James in the flat – not a bad option.

3. They have a big running back – Brandon Jacobs. The Niners should finally be able to run the ball into the end zone from the goal line. Even though Jacobs tends to go down on first contact, he’s still a humungous guy (265 lbs.) who’s scored 16 TDs the last two seasons.

4. They have better quarterbacks – notably, Josh Johnson. He gives the offense a spirited three-way competition for the backup job between him, Colin Kaepernick and Scott Tolzien. Last season, Kaepernick and Tolzien, a couple of rookies, probably weren’t ready to win games late in the season if Alex Smith got hurt. Now, the Niners have better insurance at the most important position.

5. The starting quarterback should improve – Alex Smith. We’ve heard he’s cleaned up his throwing motion and his footwork by training with Tom House, the QB Guru who first helped Drew Brees. We expect Smith to improve this offseason because of this, and because he’s got another year to master Greg Roman’s offense. In the best of all worlds, he will hit the medium and long passes and convert third downs. Can he? That’s the question. If he can’t, it’s the next guy up, as they say.

Key losses: WR Mario Manningham, RB Brandon Jacobs, TE Jake Ballard (microfracture knee surgery).

Key additions: RB David Wilson, WR Rueben Randle, WLB Keith Rivers, TE Martellus Bennett.

Forecast: The champs got better. Wilson is an upgrade over Jacobs, and Randle is an upgrade over Manningham.

2. New England Patriots

Key losses: DE Andre Carter, DE Shaun Ellis, DE Mark Anderson, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB Kevin Faulk.

Key additions: WR Brandon Lloyd, WR Jabar Gaffney, DE Chandler Jones, LB Dont’a Hightower, DE Jonathan Fanene, S Steve Gregory, CB Alfonzo Dennard.

Forecast: The Patriots upgraded their defense and their wide receivers, and now they’re the best team in the AFC by far.

3. Green Bay Packers

Key losses: LT Chad Clifton, S Nick Collins, RB Ryan Grant, QB Matt Flynn.

Key additions: OLB Nick Perry, C Jeff Saturday.

Forecast: Still the best passing offense in the NFL, now the defense has two good pass rushers as Nick Perry teams up with Clay Matthews at outside linebacker.

4. San Francisco 49ers

Key losses: WR Joshua Morgan.

Key additions: WR Randy Moss, WR Mario Manningham, WR A.J. Jenkins, RB LaMichael James, QB Josh Johnson.

Forecast: The best defense in the league and arguably the best roster top-to-bottom too. The offense wasn’t good enough on third down or in the red zone last season to reach the Super Bowl. So, the front office added four playmakers whom they hope will improve the Niners third-down and red-zone offense from awful to good enough. But the young and unproven right side of the offensive line (RG Daniel Kilgore and RT Anthony Davis) cannot be the weak link this season – they must mature quickly and hold their own, or else Vernon Davis and Moss and Mannigham will never get the ball. If the offensive line holds up, the level of success of the entire offense will fall squarely on Alex Smith’s shoulders. Can he consistently move the chains, especially in the playoffs? If he can, the Niners can win the Super Bowl this season. If he can’t, his backup deserves a shot.

5. Houston Texans

Key losses: DE Mario Williams, ILB DeMeco Ryans, CB Jason Allen.

Key additions: ILB Bradie James, DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus.

Forecast: The Texans defense played very well without Mario Williams last year, and this year they’ve added pass rusher Whitney Mercilus, so it should be top-notch once again. The offense is consistently very good with Matt Schaub at QB, Andre Johnson at WR and Arian Foster at RB, and that trio is healthy this season.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers

Key losses: CB William Gay, RB Rashard Mendenhall (ACL tear), NT Casey Hampton (ACL).

Key additions: RG David DeCastro, LT Mike Adams, NT Alameda Ta’amu

Forecast: Whoever starts the season at running back will have a great offensive line in front of him. Roethlisberger will continue to throw for tons of passing yards, because wide receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are very good.

7. Denver Broncos

Key losses: DT Brodrick Bunkley, WR Eddie Royal, QB Tim Tebow.

Key additions: QB Peyton Manning, TE Jacob Tamme, WR Andre Caldwell, CB Tracy Porter.

Forecast: This team should be able to pass the ball and rush the passer – a winning combination for Peyton Manning in the past.

8. Chicago Bears

Key losses: Johnny Knox (cracked joint in spinal column)

Key additions: WR Brandon Marshall, DE Shea McLellin, WR Alshon Jeffery, RB Michael Bush.

Forecast: This team got exactly what they wanted this offseason, another pass rusher and a couple of huge wide receivers. With QB Jay Cutler and RB Matt Forte back healthy, the Bears should contend for the Super Bowl.

9. Cincinnati Bengals

Key losses: CB Leon Hall (torn Achilles), WR Jerome Simpson, WR Andre Caldwell, DE Frostee Rucker, DE Jonathan Fanene, OG Nate Livings.

Key additions: LG Travelle Wharton, RG Kevin Zeitler, WR Marvin Jones, WR Mohamed Sanu, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Jason Allen, CB Terrence Newman.

Forecast: Second-year QB Andy Dalton will have a monster season throwing to one elite WR – A.J. Green – and two good rookies – Sanu and Jones.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Key losses: LT Jason Peters (Achilles tear).

Key additions: MLB DeMeco Ryans, LT Demetress Bell, DT Fletcher Cox, SLB Mychal Kendricks, DE Vinny Curry, CB Brandon Boykin, WR Marvin McNutt.

Forecast: The Eagles made very good offseason moves, but they’ll never seriously contend for a Super Bowl as long as Vick’s their QB. He’s small, he runs a lot, takes huge hits and misses too many games.

11. Dallas Cowboys

Key losses: ILB Bradie James, CB Terrence Newman, WR Laurent Robinson.

Key additions: CB Brandon Carr, CB Morris Claiborne, ILB Dan Connor.

Forecast: Cornerback was their biggest need and they got two very good ones, but they still have a shaky running game. With the loss of Robinson they now have no depth at wide receiver. If Dallas stays completely healthy they could contend for the Lombardi Trophy, but don’t bet on it.

12. Detroit Lions

Key losses: CB Eric Wright.

Key additions: OT Riley Reiff, WR Ryan Broyles, CB Dwight Bentley.

Forecast: This team basically stood pat. They needed a CB so they drafted Bentley in the third round. Their best player – Calvin Johnson – carries the Madden Curse this season, which doesn’t bode well for Detroit.

13. Baltimore Ravens

Key losses: OLB Terell Suggs (Achilles tear), OLB Jarret Johnson, DT Cory Redding, OG Ben Grubbs

Key additions: OLB Courtney Upshaw.

Forecast: With Suggs, this is a top-five team. Without him, Baltimore is an aging defense with a so-so pass rush.

14. Atlanta Falcons

Key losses: MLB Curtis Lofton.

Key additions: CB Asante Samuel.

Forecast: The defense is good but not great. Same with the offense. QB Matt Ryan needs a strong running game to be effective, and 30-year-old RB Michael Turner has slowed down the last two seasons.

15. Seattle Seahawks

Key losses: MLB David Hawthorne.

Key additions: QB Matt Flynn, DE Bruce Irvin.

Forecast: If their surprise first round pick, Irvin, can become a third-down sack master, Seattle’s defense could be very good, but the offense lacks talented pass catchers and an experienced QB. Also, now that Marshawn Lynch has a long-term contract, will he still play hard?

16. San Diego Chargers

Key losses: WR Vincent Jackson, RB Mike Tolbert.

Key additions: OLB Jarret Johnson, OLB Melvin Ingram, WR Robert Meachem, WR Eddie Royal, FB LeRon McClain.

Forecast: Philip Rivers lost his best WR – Jackson – but he gained two good ones, and now he’s got four (Vincent Brown, Malcolm Floyd, Meachem and Royal) to go along with TE Antonio Gates. The defense needed pass rushers, so they added two outside linebackers – Johnson and Ingram. They should be a very tough team this season.

17. New Orleans Saints

Key losses: HC Sean Payton, DC Gregg Williams, MLB Jonathan Vilma (1-year ban), LG Carl Nicks, CB Tracy Porter, WR Robert Meachem, LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar.

Key additions: LG Ben Grubbs, MLB Curtis Lofton, WLB David Hawthorne, NT Broderick Bunkley.

Forecast: The team is in disarray. The defense will stink and the offense won’t have its play caller – the disgraced Sean Payton.

18. Kansas City Chiefs

Key losses: CB Brandon Carr.

Key additions: RB Peyton Hillis, CB Stanford Routt, RT Eric Winston.

Forecast: The biggest additions aren’t really additions; they’re Chiefs who are returning from various injuries – QB Matt Cassel, RB Jamaal Charles and S Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki. They downgraded big-time at cornerback, replacing Carr with Routt. Cassel is NBD – no big deal – but without him, the Chiefs are nowhere.

19. Carolina Panthers

Key losses: MLB Dan Connor, OG Geoff Schwartz.

Key additions: MLB Luke Kuechly, OG Amini Silatolu, WR/PR Joe Adams, TE Greg Olsen.

Forecast: The offense will be excellent. Cam Newton’s the best young offensive player in the NFL. Joe Adams will win the No. 2 WR job in training camp and have a good season opposite Steve Smith. First round pick Luke Kuechly will help improve the defense, but it’s got a long way to go before it’s good enough.

20. Oakland Raiders

Key losses: DE Kamerion Wimbley, CB Stanford Routt, RB Michael Bush.

Key additions: OG Mike Brisiel, OG Tony Bergstrom, RB Mike Goodson, CB Ronald Bartell, WR Juron Criner.

Forecast: Wimbley’s a one-trick pony – a speed rusher who doesn’t defend the run. The Raiders will be fine without him. And they’ll actually improve without Routt. Call it addition by subtraction. All he did for Oakland was commit a ton of pass interference penalties. Bartell should be a big upgrade. If Darren McFadden stays healthy, the Raiders offense will be top-10. If the defense can at least stop the run, this team could be competitive.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key losses: None.

Key additions: WR Vincent Jackson, LG Carl Nicks, S Mark Barron, RB Doug Martin, CB Eric Wright.

Forecast: Young QB Josh Freeman had a down year. He should bounce back, especially because he’s got a new wide receiver – Jackson – and a new tail back – Martin. The defense has talent. There’s a new head coach – Greg Schiano. This team should surprise the league this season.

22. Tennessee Titans

Key losses: Cortland Finnegan.

Key additions: LG Steve Hutchinson, DE Kamerion Wimbley, WR Kendall Wright.

Forecast: This offense is much better with WR Kenny Britt, who tore his ACL last season and missed 13 games after missing four the season before. Hutchinson’s old, and so is the quarterback – Matt Hasselbeck. First-round pick Kendall Wright will bust. Team MVP Chris Johnson had a down year last season. If he doesn’t rebound, the Titans will be lucky to tread water this season.

23. New York Jets

Key losses: LaDainian Tomlinson.

Key additions: DE Quiton Coples, WR Stephen Hill, S LaRon Landry, Tim Tebow.

Forecast: This team still stinks. WR Santonio Holmes will quit on them again this year, maybe even before the season begins. If they didn’t have the best CB in the NFL – Derrelle Revis – the Jets would just be plain awful.

24. Arizona Cardinals

Key losses: CB Richard Marshall.

Key additions: WR Michael Floyd, CB William Gay.

Forecast: This team’s going nowhere. The offensive line is still bad, and so is the quarterback – Kevin Kolb. If they didn’t have one of top-10 players in the league – Larry Fitzgerald – they wouldn’t have very much going for them. At least they have the promising young cornerback and punt returner – Patrick Peterson.

25. Buffalo Bills

Key losses: LT Demetress Bell.

Key additions: DE Mario Williams, CB Stephon Gilmore, DE Mark Anderson, OT Cordy Glenn.

Forecast: They added the best pass rusher in the NFL to their defense – Williams – plus they added another good one – Anderson, and spent a top-10 draft pick on a corner – Gilmore. The defense should be good, but the offense won’t be, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is the reason why. He stinks.

26. Indianapolis Colts

Key losses: QB Peyton Manning, TE Jacob Tamme, WR Pierre Garçon, C Jeff Saturday.

Key additions: QB Andrew Luck, TE Coby Fleener, TE Dwayne Allen.

Forecast: This team is going to be slightly better than many people think. Andrew Luck will be very good right away, like Cam Newton last season, only better. Fleener will catch more than 10 TDs, and Reggie Wayne will gain more than 1,200 yards receiving. The defense still can rush the quarterback, but can they stop the run? Probably not.

27. Minnesota Vikings

Key losses: None.

Key additions: LT Matt Kalil, WR Jerome Simpson, WR Greg Childs, WR Jarius Wright.

Forecast: Team MVP Adrian Peterson, who tore his ACL, MCL and meniscus last season, believes he’ll be ready to start this season. That’s good news for the Vikings, especially for 2^nd-year noodle-armed QB Christian Ponder, who needs all the help he can get. And they’re giving it to him – not only will Peterson return, but they drafted a stud left tackle – Kalil –signed a good wide receiver – Simpson – and drafted two more good ones from the University of Arkansas – Childs and Wright. The defense isn’t nearly good enough for this team to matter, though.

28. Washington Redskins

Key losses: LaRon Landry, Jabar Gaffney.

Key additions: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garçon, Joshua Morgan.

Forecast: QB Griffin will disappoint his rookie season. His weapons – Garçon, Morgan and RB Roy Helu – really are NBD, and his coach – Mike Shannahan – is way over the hill.

29. St. Louis Rams

Key losses: WR Brandon Lloyd.

Key additions: CB Cortland Finnegan, DT Michael Brockers, WR Brian Quick, CB Janoris Jenkins, RB Isaiah Pead, WR Chris Givens.

Forecast: The defense should be much better than last season, when it featured one of the slowest, worst secondaries in football. Now with Finnegan and Jenkins, they have two good cornerbacks. Unfortunately for St. Louis, the offense will continue to stink. The WRs are NBD, and the QB, Sam Bradford, is a dink-and-dunker who needs a clean pocket to operate. In other words, he’s a bust and he’ll hold this team back for years.

30. Cleveland Browns

Key losses: RB Peyton Hillis.

Key additions: RB Trent Richardson, QB Brandon Weeden, DE Frostee Rucker.

Forecast: Trent Richardson was the right draft pick; Brandon Weeden was not. Like Bradford, Weeden was a prolific Big XII QB who needs a clean pocket. QBs don’t get clean pockets in the NFL, so the Browns are screwed.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars

Key losses: None.

Key additions: DE Andre Branch, WR Justin Blackmon, WR Laurent Robinson, WR Lee Evans.

Forecast: Another team who foolishly invested in a Big XII QB. Blaine Gabbert is so bad, he will single-handedly ensure the Jaguars are one of the NFL’s worst teams this season.

32. Miami Dolphins

Key losses: None.

Key additions: QB Ryan Tannehill, RT Jonathan Martin, CB Richard Marshall.

Forecast: Miami is giving its Big XII QB, Tannehill, a year to develop, as if that will help. It won’t. He’ll still be horrendous in the NFL, but the Dolphins will be horrendous with our without him, so it doesn’t really matter.

All the players raced this morning, but they didn’t run straight. They ran 20-yard figure-eights around giant hoola hoops. This drill tested quickness – the ability to sink your hips and accelerate around tight turns without popping upright or shortening your stride.

A.J. Jenkins raced Chris Owusu at least twice and lost both times. If you didn’t know which guy was the first round pick and which was the undrafted player, you would have thought it was Owusu.

But when the receivers started running routes and catching passes, it was obvious which guy was the first-rounder. A.J. Jenkins caught all but two passes – ones behind him, over his head and below his knees. He even made a diving catch. Owusu, on the other hand, dropped several passes that were right to him.

After these first few drills, both Jenkins and Owusu seemed out of breath, hands on hips. In the locker room, Jenkins appeared to have both his hamstrings heavily taped with ice.

After practice, Jim Harbaugh said many of the players were out of shape, but he’s not worried at this point.

Most of the veterans showed up. Frank Gore didn’t, and neither did Mario Manningham or Brandon Jacobs, but that’s OK because VFS is voluntary.

But Alex Smith showed up. He stretched with the offensive lineman and chatted with Alex Boone, one of his good friends on the team.

Michael Crabtree showed up, too. He stretched next to his good pal Ted Ginn Jr., as he usually does. More on them in a second.

Colin Kaepernick showed up. He stretched with his buddies Bruce Miller and Kyle Williams, just like last season.

There were a couple of new faces. Josh Johnson made his 49er practice debut in front of the media. During stretches, as the players jogged back and forth across the field and tweaked their quads and hamstrings, Johnson hovered next to the other new face on the team – Randy Moss – trailing the great wide receiver around the field like a spaniel, asking questions and cracking jokes, trying to make a good first impression.

But Johnson couldn’t monopolize Moss for long. Crabtree and Ginn, the coolest guys on the team last year, the two dudes who most of the other players looked to for social validation, shuffled over to Moss like star-struck kids.

Ginn even dressed like Moss – red shorts and black tights. Ginn was blatantly copying Moss’ style. Last year, Ginn had his own style. He always practiced in white tights which he pulled over the heels of the cleats. Lots of Niners coppied him – Crabtree, Kyle Williams and Frank Gore, to name a few. Today, Ginn was the copycat.

He was also a shagger, but not a wide receiver. Ginn didn’t participate in any of the wide receiver drills – he shagged balls like an intern. Either he’s hurt or he has no role on offense this year, or there’s something I don’t understand.

The quarterbacks started practice by throwing about a dozen 40-yard passes each, deep down the left sideline. Kaepernick and Johnson made it look easy. Smith had the distance down but he kept missing by a few yards to the left or a few yards to the right. Tolzien struggled with the distance.

Kaepernick consistently overthrew his target, which was impressive in this drill, but it foreshadowed the rest of his afternoon in which he consistently overthrew receivers on most plays. Deep passes, crossing routes, out patterns – Kaepernick overthrew them. He has a rocket arm, but he still has trouble with accuracy and touch.

Johnson looked much better than Kaepernick – he was more accurate and his release was much quicker.

When Harbaugh split the four QBs up after the first drill, Johnson, not Kaepernick, paired up with Smith. Harbaugh watched these two closely for about 20 minutes as they took turns throwing passes on the run to the tailbacks.

After one day in the race for the backup QB job, I think Johnson has the lead. He didn’t miss a single throw today. He even practiced better than Smith did today, and Smith did well – he missed a couple 10-yard outs and few deep passes, but mostly he did well.

Smith threw one perfect 55-yard bomb to Randy Moss. When he threw it, the whole organization – players, coaches, trainers – stopped and watched.

As Moss leapt in the end zone and caught the pass, the Niners went wild. Anthony Davis threw his hands up in the air and squealed like a child.

This happened every time someone threw the ball to Moss. After practice, Kaepernick said it was “surreal” throwing passes to him. The Niners were in awe.

But Moss wasn’t just a spectacle – he was a leader. At one point he took all of the wide receivers aside and demonstrated cutting and quick feet. Crabtree and Williams and all of them just stared and nodded at Moss with complete respect.

During the drills, Moss worked as hard as anyone. I was expecting the backups to do most of the work, but Moss jumped into the huddle as often as the coaches allowed him to. This seemed to inspire Crabtree, who sometimes hangs back with Ginn on the periphery of the action.

Today, Crabtree hung with Moss, running as many patterns and catching as many passes as possible, and talking trash the whole time. Moss and Crabtree need strong offseasons – their careers depend on it – and it seems like they’re already bringing out the best in each other.

Crabtree had a very good practice – he caught almost everything, but he couldn’t outshine Moss, the star of the day.

10. Michael Crabtree vs. his left foot. Will Crabtree win the battle against his left foot this offseason? He’s 1-2 in his professional career when he’s faced the foot in the summer. It beat him in ’09 when it sustained a stress fracture and held him out of the Combine. It beat him with a stress fracture again last season, and he missed all of training camp. In ’10 he won the battle with his foot, but he lost the battle with his neck, so he missed the entire preseason. No matter which body part he’s faced as a Niner, he’s lost and missed every offseason. He has to reverse that trend this summer. If he wants to be a starter, he’s got to win the battle with his left foot. He can’t afford to miss any OTAs or training camp and neither can his foot.

9. Randy Moss vs. himself. Moss has no serious competition for a roster spot – he’s the only wide receiver who’s taller than 6-1. The Niners need him for their red-zone offense, which was atrocious last season, as you well know. Moss has a roster spot all but locked up as long as he doesn’t quit and his old, rickety knees don’t give out on him.

8. Ted Ginn Jr. vs. the field. If Ginn makes the team, he probably won’t see any snaps on offense – he’ll strictly be a return man. How many special-teams specialists can the Niners realistically carry on their roster? Rock Cartwright could be one. C.J. Spillman could be another. If Ginn is indeed going to be a third, he’s going to have to show that he’s way better returner than his competition.

7. Darius Fleming vs. Parys Haralson. It’s the battle of the backup outside linebackers. Aldon Smith will start and play all downs this year, so Fleming and Haralson won’t play many snaps on defense, barring injury. That means this competition could come down to which player performs better on special teams.

6. Perrish Cox vs. Tramaine Brock. When the Niners signed Cox, I assumed they wanted him as a backup punt returner, but then they drafted LaMichael James in the second round, so forget Cox as a backup punt returner. If he’s going to make the team, he’s going to have to do it on the merit of his cornerbacking, so he’s got to show he’s better in coverage than Brock, who runs a 4.37 40-yard dash, compared to Cox who runs a 4.56.

5. Joe Looney vs. Daniel Kilgore. The battle for right guard. Kilgore’s the favorite because he’s been on the team for a year and Looney’s a rookie. Kilgore’s 310 lbs. and potentially a very good pass protector for a guard. Looney’s bigger – 320 lbs., and presumably the better run blocker. The Niners traded up in the fifth round last year to draft Kilgore. This year, they gave Looney a third round grade, but they traded back a couple of times to draft him in the fourth round because they were confident no other team would draft him that high, and they were right. If the Niners view Looney as a third-round talent and Kilgore as a fifth-round talent, Looney might have a better chance to win this competition than you’d think. He’s going to have to fully recover from a Lisfranc foot injury first, though.

4. Anthony Dixon vs. Brandon Jacobs. Some people around the league refer to Jacobs as the softest big running back in the league. He’ll be 30 years old this season, so he’s only getting softer. Still, he’s scored 16 touchdowns the last two seasons. Anthony Dixon, the incumbent goal line back, has scored just four. To make the team, the 24-year old Dixon will have to completely outshine Jacobs in training camp.

3. LaMichael James vs. Kendall Hunter. If James is going to get snaps on offense his rookie season, he’s going to have to show in training camp that he’s a better player than the Niners other tiny tailback – Hunter – who has a year of NFL experience. This competition will have three parts – running, blocking and receiving. If James wants to back up Frank Gore on first and second down, he has to show he’s a better runner than Hunter, which is questionable – Hunter’s very good. If James wants to get in the game on third down, he has to show he’s a better blocker and a better receiver than Hunter, who isn’t great in those two areas.

2. Kyle Williams vs. A.J. Jenkins. This is a one-way competition. For Jenkins, there is no competition – he’s the Niners first-round pick, and he will be higher on the wide receiver depth chart this season than Williams, who probably won’t even make the team. But Williams is no slouch. In fact, he might be a better receiver than Jenkins right now. He’s quicker, he runs better routes and he’s a better blocker. If Williams can consistently outperform Jenkins this offseason, he’ll have a good chance to make the team.

1. Josh Johnson vs. Colin Kaepernick vs. Scott Tolzien. The battle for the backup quarterback job. Alex Smith is the incumbent 14-game winner, so there’s no way he loses his job in the preseason. The quarterback competition will be among the backups for the opportunity to replace Smith during the season if he struggles or gets hurt. If Johnson has an advantage, it’s that he knows the offense already because he was with Jim Harbaugh for three seasons at the University of San Diego. If Kaepernick has an advantage, it’s that the Niners traded up in the second round last year to draft him, so they’re invested in him. Also, he’s the best athlete with the strongest arm of the bunch. If Tolzien has an advantage, it’s that he’s performed the best of the three in preseason games, for whatever that’s worth.

QUATERBACKS

1. Alex Smith

2. Josh Johnson

3. Colin Kaepernick

Analysis: I expect Johnson to win the battle for the backup quarterback job in training camp, and Scott Tolzien to be the odd man out.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Frank Gore

2. Kendall Hunter

3. Brandon Jacobs

4. LaMichael James

5. Rock Cartwright

Analysis: Even though James is a second-round pick, I expect him to start the season at the bottom of the running back depth chart. He has to prove he’s a better RB than Kendal Hunter, who’s stronger and more experienced than James. I expect Jacobs to make the roster as the goal line back over Anthony Dixon because Jacobs has scored 16 TDs the last two seasons and Dixon’s scored four. Rock Cartwright is technically a running back, but he’ll primarily play special teams.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Mario Manningham (Flanker)

2. Michael Crabtree (Split end/slot)

3. Randy Moss (Split end)

4. A.J. Jenkins (Slot)

5. Ted Ginn Jr.

Analysis: Manningham is the best receiver on the team. I expect he’ll play most of the offensive snaps this season. Crabtree complements Manningham because he’s a bigger possession receiver who goes over the middle. Manningham is a home run threat down the sidelines. Randy Moss is a home run threat too, and I imagine Greg Roman will call a couple of shot plays for Moss every game. Mostly though, Moss will help the Niners in the red zone – he’s their tallest receiver. A.J. Jenkins will be a good backup this season, and Ted Ginn Jr. will be the returner, but I expect he’ll play sparingly on offense. He’s not a good receiver – he’s only good at the Fly Sweep, or the reverse. But Manningham ran those plays in college at Michigan, and he’ll probably run them for the Niners this season. Kyle Williams will play well in training camp but ultimately get cut because he can’t be trusted to return punts anymore and the Niners would rather carry a fourth outside linebacker than a fifth wide receiver.

TIGHT ENDS

1. Vernon Davis

2. Delanie Walker

3. Nate Byham

ANALYSIS: Byham is the blocking tight end. When he’s in the game, Vernon Davis will line up at wide receiver. I expect the Niners to experiment with this personnel group because they want to make Davis as involved in the passing game as possible. I expect Walker will line up all over the formation – even at fullback occasionally.

FULLBACK

1. Bruce Miller

ANALYSIS: No more Moran Norris.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN

1. Joe Staley

2. Mike Iupati

3. Jonathan Goodwin

4. Daniel Kilgore

5. Anthony Davis

6. Alex Boone

7. Joe Looney

8. Jason Slowey*

9. Mike Person*

ANALYSIS: Kilgore will win the right guard job and he’ll also back up Goodwin at center. Looney will back up both guards, and Boone will back up both tackles. Slowey and Person will make the team but will not suit up for games.

DEFENSIVE TACKLES

1. Justin Smith

2. Isaac Sopoaga

3. Ray McDonald

4. Will Tukuafu

5. Ricky Jean Francois

6. Demarcus Dobbs*

7. Ian Williams*

ANALYSIS: The same seven as last season. Tukuafu will back up Smith and McDonald, and Jean Francois will back up Sopoaga. Dobbs will get stronger and add weight so next season he can become a five-tech DT like Smith and McDonald and Tukuafu. Ian Williams will continue to develop into the Niners nose tackle of the future.

INSIDE LINEBACKERS

1. Patrick Willis

2. NaVorro Bowman

3. Larry Grant

4. Tavares Gooden

ANALYSIS: The same group as last season, minus Blake Costanzo, which is too bad.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS

1. Aldon Smith

2. Ahmad Brooks

3. Darius Fleming

4. Cam Johnson*

ANALYSIS: Aldon Smith will start and play most of the defensive snaps this season, and Ahmad Brooks will too, so the Niners will cut Parys Haralson, who would be an expensive, non-special-teams-playing backup this season. Fifth round pick Darius Flemming takes his spot on the roster. Cam Johnson makes the team as Aldon Smith insurance – a backup pass rusher who doesn’t suit up for games his rookie season.

CORNERBACKS

1. Carlos Rogers

2. Tarell Brown

3. Chris Culliver

4. Tramaine Brock*

ANALYSIS: The same group as last season, minus Shawntae Spencer. This season the Niners will roll the dice by carrying just four cornerbacks. They get away with this because they can stash Curtis Holcomb and Cory Nelms – two young corners they like – on the practice squad.

SAFETIES

1. Dashon Goldson

2. Donte Whitner

3. Trenton Robinson

4. C.J. Spillman

5. Colin Jones

ANALYSIS: Robinson immediately takes over for Reggie Smith as the third safety and dime back, i.e. the second DB off the bench after Culliver. Spillman plays a few snaps on goal line defense, but he’s mostly a special teams specialist like Colin Jones.

SPECIALISTS

1. David Akers

2. Andy Lee

3. Brian Jennings

ANALYSIS: Same trio as last season.

KICK RETURNERS

1. Ted Ginn Jr.

2. A.J. Jenkins

ANALYSIS: Jenkins replaces Kendall Hunter as the guy who lines up next to Ginn on kick returns.

PUNT RETURNERS

1. Ted Ginn Jr.

2. LaMichael James

ANALYSIS: James wins the backup punt returner job, so the Niners cut Kyle Williams and Perrish Cox.

* Denotes a player who will make the team but will not suit up for games. 

Grade: B-

Why: Until December, Ginn was one of best punt returners in the league and Kyle Williams was a talented backup. Then Ted Ginn Jr. injured his ankle and Kyle Williams sustained a brutal concussion, and punt returner became the Niners biggest weakness. Williams recovered and Ginn didn’t, so Williams had to return punts in the playoffs. The Niners forgot that Williams fumbled punts in big moments back in college, but they remembered when he fumbled two in the NFC championship game against the Giants. He will fumble no more punts for the Niners because he’s been replaced as the backup returner.

Now: Subtract Williams. Add LaMichael James and Perrish Cox.

Grade: A

Why: James is so explosive he could replace Ginn at punt returner as early as this season. The newly-signed Cox returned punts in college and he was very effective – averaging 11.6 yards per return. What about A.J. Jenkins, you might be asking? He didn’t return a single punt in college, but he did return 38 kickoffs. He could replace Kendall Hunter as the kick returner opposite Ted Ginn Jr. The Niners are more than set at returner.

Grade: F

Why: Vernon Davis is a monster red zone target, but he got double covered constantly last season. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman wanted to establish his red zone offense with Braylon Edwards at the beginning of last season – force feeding him fade passes in the corner of the end zone. Edwards couldn’t catch a single one, and then he got hurt, and then it seemed like Roman ran out of ideas. Delanie Walker and Kyle Williams are too short to be real red-zone threats, and Frank Gore is not a particularly powerful goal line running back.

Now: Subtract Walker, Williams and Gore. Add Moss, Manningham and Jacobs.

Grade: B

Why: Randy Moss can probably catch the end zone fade better right now than Braylon Edwards ever could. If Moss can stay healthy, his main benefit to the team should be in the red zone. If Roman can establish him as a TD threat early on, that will open up Davis and the Niners will be in business. If Moss gets hurt or quits on the team, the Niners red zone offense is back at square one. The addition of Jacobs should help a little bit – he scored 16 touchdowns the last two seasons – but he’s aging and slowing down. And although A.J. Jenkins may have value, for the red zone he’s a little short. It’s Moss who’s the key to the Niners red zone offense.

Grade: F

Why: Double-cover Davis and the Niners were dead on third down. Crabtree was rarely open enough for Alex Smith’s taste, Kendall Hunter didn’t have reliable hands and Smith rarely even considered throwing to Delanie Walker.

Now: Subtract Walker, Williams and Hunter. Add Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, LaMichael James and A.J. Jenkins.

Grade: B+

Why: If teams over commit to stopping Davis, Mario Manningham and Randy Moss can hurt them deep. If Alex Smith only wants to check down because he prefers the cautious, safe play, he’s got two explosive check-down options – James and Jenkins. The Niners should be able to put five explosive receiving weapons on the field for every third and long, and that’s ideal. If Alex Smith can take advantage of these guys and prove that third down, the Money Down, is not his Achilles Heel, this area should improve from a “B+” to an “A.”